THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY
Department of Statistics
STAT 1111, Section 10 – Fall 2012
SYLLABUS
Lecture: M & W 6:10-7:20 p.m., Rome Hall Room 204
Instructor: Saeid B. Amini, Ph.D., MBA, JD
730 24th St. NW, Suite One, Washington DC 20037
Phone: (202) 306-9444
E-mail: sbajd98@yahoo.com ; sbajd98@gwu.edu
Office Hours: M, 4:50pm-5:50pm
Office Hour Location: ROME Hall Room
T.A.: Lixuan Yin
E-mail: rogeryin@gwmail.gwu.edu
Office Hours:
COURSE DESCRIPTION
This is an introductory class in the statistical sciences. Below is the summary of topics.
Numerical measures of central tendency and variability, frequency distributions &
graphical presentations, probability, random variables, sampling distributions, estimation,
confidence intervals, testing of hypotheses, linear regression and correlation.
TEXTS
Author
Moore, McCabe,
Alwan, Craig,
and Duckworth.
Title
The Practice of Statistics for Business and
Economics
Edition
3rd
LEARNING OUTCOMES:
At the end of the semester you should be able to
--apply laws of probability
--construct and interpret large-sample and small-sample confidence intervals
--evaluate evidence for and against hypotheses using statistical tests
--find the least-squares equation for simple linear regression and assess the utility of the model
Course Homepage: http://blackboard.gwu.edu. Please check this page frequently. I
will post important information (homework, quizzes, projects, handouts, etc.).
Course Structure: The course consists of two lectures per week. During the lectures,
we will cover the concepts, solve example problems, and learn how to use a statistical
computer program, SAS.
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Course Content: The course will cover the materials in Chapters 1-8, 10, and part of Ch.
11. These topics are: basic concepts of data, descriptive statistics, basic probability and
probability distributions, statistical inference through confidence intervals and hypothesis
tests, and simple regression.
Homework: There will be weekly reading assignments and homework, which will NOT
be collected or graded. Students should work on these assignments to keep up with the
lecture and to prepare for the exams. Answers and solutions for the homework problems
will be posted on blackboard after the due date. Many problems and questions on the
quizzes and exams will be based on the homework problems.
Quizzes: There will be 10 quizzes throughout the semester. These quizzes will cover
material from the previous week’s homework assignments. Students will not be able
to make up the quizzes (NO EXCEPTIONS), but the lowest two quiz
grades will be dropped. This includes a quiz or two that you have missed and for
which a zero is recorded.
Projects: There will be two projects that you are required to work on individually.
These projects are designed to teach students important SAS and statistical writing skills.
A report is expected. Up to three students can work on the same project. You need to
find or collect data on at least 50 objects/subjects/entities with at least 5 variables
including at least one nominal and two numerical data. The first project is due on or
before midterm exam and the second project is due on or before the final exam.
Additional instructions will be provided in the class.
Exams: There will be a midterm and a final exam. The dates are set below but are
subject to change. While any changes made will be announced well in advance (in class
as well as online), it is the student’s responsibility to keep up with these announcements.
Midterm Exam: October 22, 2012; covering Ch. 1-4
Final Exam: TBA; Covering Ch. 1-8,10
Grading: Your final letter grade will be based on a total score computed as follows:
Quizzes:
25%
st
1 project:
5%
2nd project:
5%
Midterm:
30%
Final Exam: 35%
Letter Grades of A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, and F are possible results for the
semester grade based on the student’s performance. The major letter grades are pegged
to the following total points out of a possible 100.
Grade
Points Needed
Corresponding
A
90+
90- 100%
Percentage
B
80 - 89
80- 89%
C
70 - 79
70- 79%
D
60
69
60- 69%
F
< 60%
- < 60
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Plus and minus levels will be assigned accordingly between these scores. As a
general rule, students should not anticipate any deviation from this grading scale.
There is no “curve” in the grading scale.
>> ATTENDANCE: Students are expected and strongly encouraged to attend all class
meetings. It is my expectation that students will have read the assigned text material prior
to coming to class, and will be prepared to discuss this material in class. I would
strongly suggest that if you are unable to attend a particular class, you should obtain
the lecture notes from another student. I do not provide copies of my lecture notes to
students who have missed a class. Furthermore, students are expected to be aware of any
changes in the dates of assignments or tests. Absence will not be accepted as an excuse for
ignorance.
>> HOLIDAYS & BREAKS: Monday, September 3, 2012 (Labor Day Weekend )
CLASS POLICIES
Attendance:
Attendance in the class is necessary to perform well. Please be in the class before the
start of lecture and leave after the lecture ended.
Make-Up Exams:
There will be no make-up quizzes or exams. However, students that need to
reschedule either the midterm or final exam can do so by notifying me AT LEAST ONEWEEK PRIOR TO THE EXAM.
Important Notes:
-
Turn off your cell phone in the class.
-
Avoid using your personal computer for anything other than accessing
the course materials.
-
Please bring a calculator and notes from blackboard to every class.
- Read the lecture materials before coming to the
class, Take good notes, Do assigned problem (and
more), and Ask Questions,… You will do just fine!...
-
A grade of Incomplete will only be given to a student who is passing the
course and cannot complete the course due to illness or other welldocumented circumstances beyond his/her control.
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University Policy on Religious Holidays:
1. Students should notify faculty during the first week of the semester of their
intention to be absent from class on their day(s) of religious observance;
2. Faculty should extend to these students the courtesy of absence without penalty
on such occasions, including permission to make up examinations;
3. Faculty who intend to observe a religious holiday should arrange at the
beginning of the semester to reschedule missed classes or to make other
provisions for their course-related activities
[NOTE: for other university policies on teaching, see
http://www.gwu.edu/~academic/Teaching/main.htm ]
ACADEMIC INTEGRITY
I personally support the GW Code of Academic Integrity. It states:: “Academic
dishonesty is defined as cheating of any kind, including misrepresenting one's own work,
taking credit for the work of others without crediting them and without appropriate
authorization, and the fabrication of information.” For the remainder of the code, see:
http://www.gwu.edu/~ntegrity/code.html
SUPPORT FOR STUDENTS OUTSIDE THE CLASSROOM
DISABILITY SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS)
Any student who may need an accommodation based on the potential impact of a
disability should contact the Disability Support Services office at 202-994-8250 in the
Marvin Center, Suite 242, to establish eligibility and to coordinate reasonable
accommodations. For additional information please refer to: http://gwired.gwu.edu/dss/
UNIVERSITY COUNSELING CENTER (UCC) 202-994-5300
The University Counseling Center (UCC) offers 24/7 assistance and referral to
address students' personal, social, career, and study skills problems. Services for students
include:
- crisis and emergency mental health consultations
- confidential assessment, counseling services (individual and small group), and
referrals
http://gwired.gwu.edu/counsel/CounselingServices/AcademicSupportServices
SECURITY
In the case of an emergency, if at all possible, the class should shelter in place. If the
building that the class is in is affected, follow the evacuation procedures for the building.
After evacuation, seek shelter at a predetermined rendezvous location such as in front of
the buildings, etc.
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Class Schedule and Assignments
________________________________________________________________________
Date Day
Topic
Chapter
8/29 W
*Introduction to Basic Concepts: Data, Variable, Values
Ch. 1
Graphical presentation of data (univariate, bivariate, multivariates)
(study of single variable)
9/3
M
*Labor Day Weekend (holiday) – No Class, Please read entire Chap1&2
9/5
W
*Describing/summarizing numerical data (center, variation, etc.)
Numerical & Graphical Summary of quantitative data
Concept of outliers
9/10
M
*Density Curves and the Normal Distributions
Ch. 1
Symmetric v. Non-symmetric, Standardization, testing for normality
9/12
W
*Examining the Relationships: Graphical, numerical, transformation Ch. 2
(study of more than one variable)
9/17
M
*Measures of Relationships (correlation coefficient)
Ch. 2
9/19
W
*Least Square Regression
Ch. 2
9/24
M
*Least Square Regression Continue & Review of Chapters 1&2
Ch. 2
9/26
W
*How to obtain good data–Population, Sample, Sampling, Inference Ch. 3
Obtaining Good Samples, Designing Experiments
10/1
M
Designing Experiments, Detecting and Dealing with Biases
Ch. 3
10/3
W
*Statistical Inference, Parameter v. Statistics
Estimation of Parameters with Statistics and Sampling Variability
Ch. 3
10/8
M
*Statistical Inference, Parameter v. Statistics
Estimation of Parameters with Statistics and Sampling Variability
Ch. 3
Ch. 1
10/10 W
*Probability & Sampling Distributions Ch. 4
Randomness & Probability Models (Sampling space, event, model)
10/15 M
*Random variables, Discrete Probability Distributions
Rules of variances
10/17 W
*Sampling Distribution of a Sample Mean-Continuous Distribution Ch. 4
Central Limit Theorem,
Ch. 4
5
10/22 M
*Midterm Exam – Chapters 1-4
10/24 W
*Probability Theory – Rules of Probability, (sample space, event) Ch. 5
Venn Diagram, Independence, disjoint
10/29 M
*Conditional Probability – Tree Diagrams and Bayes’s Rule
10/31 W
*Binomial and Poisson Distributions and their normal distribution Ch. 5
Approximations
11/5
M
*Statistical Inference: estimating confidence intervals
For populations mean, Sample Size Calculation
Ch. 6
11/7
W
*Hypothesis testing – Tests of Significance, Hypothesis
Null & Alternative hypothesis (one sided; two sided)
test statistics, critical values, p-values
Ch. 6
11/12 M
*Power of test, Type I and Type II errors & Review of Ch. 6.
Ch. 6
11/14 W
*Inference and Testing for a Single Population Mean
Ch. 7
11/19 M
*Comparing two Population Means (assuming equal & unequal
Ch. 7
Population Variances); Confidence Interval; Degrees of Freedom
11/21 W
*Comparing two Population Means
Confidence Interval; Degrees of Freedom
Ch. 7
11/26 M
*Inference for Proportions – Sampling Distribution of a Single
Proportion
Ch. 8
11/28 W
*Comparing two Proportions – Sampling Distributions for
Difference in two Proportions, computing pooled estimates
Ch. 8
12/3
M
*Inference for Regression – Simple Linear Regression model
Estimating and testing Regression parameters
Ch. 10
12/5
W
Last Day of Class
*Using the Regression line for prediction (confidence,
and prediction intervals)
Ch. 10
Ch. 5
*Introduction to Multiple Regression (not included in final exam) Ch. 11
FINAL EXAM: Ch. 1-10
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Suggested Homework Problems:
Ch.1: 1.15, 1.17, 1.20, 1.30, 1.38, 1.67, 1.129
Ch. 2:
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