National Marine Science Plan
Biodiversity Conservation and Ecosystem Health
Pelagic Ecosystems
BACKGROUND
Pelagic ecosystems link coastal, neritic and oceanic biodiversity and underpin the productivity and
sustainability of that biodiversity. For Australia’s fully marine systems, the dynamics of pelagic marine
ecosystems control delivery of nutrients and energy, in space and time, from terrestrial and estuarine
inputs, from oceans external to Australia and from the deep sea; they determine the retention and
recycling of nutrients in the pelagos, transport/export of energy to the benthos and the transport of
energy from areas of production to other areas. They are the context therefore to sustaining
ecosystem services on which Australia depends (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Map showing Australia’s marine jurisdiction. (Red line
shows the boundary to the area of the Convention on the
Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources)
Ecosystem dynamics and change sets the context for developing management strategies to sustain
ecosystem services. Pelagic ecosystems are naturally dynamic, varying seasonally, annually and at
other frequencies arising from Earth system dynamics, e.g. El Nino. Moreover, long term trends in a
number of ecosystem attributes are occurring with expected futures including a warming ocean,
increased acidity and greater frequencies and intensities of storms, along with other regionally-specific
trends and perturbations.
Pelagic species will potentially respond to environmental changes by

tolerating the changes, although this may result in poorer performance and alter the relative
importance of the species in the ecosystem

moving geographically to remain in the ocean conditions most conducive to their survival,
and/or

adapting to new conditions through natural selection, resulting in improved performance under
the new conditions.
For ecosystems, the response of biota will be critical in maintaining ecosystem structure and function.
The species pool overall and within functional components will govern the response of the
ecosystems. For example, some species in a functional component may decline in abundance while
others may increase thereby potentially enabling relative stability in that function. Maintenance of
refugia and/or networks of suitable conditions for species may be important in the long-term
maintenance of ecosystems.
Adaptation of industries and activities to these futures and mitigation of possible impacts requires a
capability to assess

the dynamics of pelagic ecosystems,

how these ecosystems will respond to future changes to the Earth system,

the degree to which ecosystem components of greatest interest will be sensitive to Earth
system change, and

whether these ecosystems will be more or less sensitive to the industries/activities interacting
with the them.
This capability requires knowledge of the structure and function of ecosystems along with the key
drivers that influence the key functional components. Three questions need to be addressed to
achieve this capability:
1. What are the functional components of pelagic ecosystems and how might those components
change in the future, taking account of the potential species pool of each component and the
responses of taxa to environmental change?
2. What are the key drivers and processes that give rise to the dynamics of the functional
components?
3. What is the spatial connectivity of the different functional components in the ecosystem?
The overall capability is determined by linking these questions in dynamic models of the ecosystems
that are able to provide accurate representations of the structure and dynamics of the pelagic
ecosystems suitable for assessing current and future scenarios for these ecosystems.
Research priorities will be determined by the degree to which dynamic models have been developed
to provide the context for assessing current status and trends of ecosystems and possible mitigation
and adaptation options for future scenarios, i.e. what is the state of readiness of the models and what
are the priories for improving either their state of readiness or their performance. Here we identify the
state of readiness of these dynamic models as follows (check available classifications):
fragmented:
information on some or all functional components may be available but no
framework model is available
conceptual:
a model framework has been assembled but a dynamic model based on
local information is not available
rudimentary:
a dynamic model is available with parameters mostly derived from local
studies
partial:
a dynamic model is available but only based on part of the ecosystem e.g.
BGC
mature:
an end-to-end ecosystem model is available with observations being used
to validate, tune and/or initialise assessments and/or data can be
assimilated into the model, and provides the basis for identifying key
uncertainties for future research.
A mature model does not need to represent the ecologies of all species in an ecosystem. Such a
model would be expected to characterise the primary dynamics of the ecosystem thereby facilitating
further or more detailed exploration of key functional components and scenarios.
This capability is not targeting the development of a single end-to-end ecosystem model for the areas
of interest to Australia. The strategy would be to develop an ensemble of models that link to Earth
System models. The ensemble of models would then facilitate downscaling of the larger scale models
to biological, spatial and temporal scales of interest. The ensemble would naturally be divided
regionally and a number of models may be developed within a region to deal with different kinds of
processes. Ideally, each model could be coupled or linked to other models, be subsets of those
models, or be bounded by other models. Moreover, the outputs of the models would ideally be
available for use in assessments or in providing context for modelling and assessments for sectoral
management and science. The figure in the attachment illustrates these relationships.
Brief Review of Capability
The following table provides a summary review of the status of pelagic ecosystem models around
Australia:
Antarctic and
Conceptual models on ecosystem structure (Melbourne-Thomas et al), a
Subantarctic
partial model of biogeochemistry and production for for Kerguelen region as
well as whole of Southern Ocean; simple predator-krill models are available
but driven by knowledge from Antarctic Peninsula and Atlantic sector; a
NetLogo and Atlantis models almost ready for trials (rudimentary heading
for mature; Bedford etal, Fulton etal).
South-East Australia
Conceptual models exist (by Dambacher et al for KEFs), mature Ecopath
with Ecosim (EwE) models exist for small sections of this region (Bulman et
al), mature Atlantis model (Atlantis-SPF; Fulton) also exists (other Atlantis
models exist for the region too but more demersally focused; Fulton et al
2014).
Great Australia Bight
Conceptual models exist (by Dambacher et al for KEFs), mature EwE
model exists (Goldsworthy et al), an Atlantis model is being currently
calibrated (rudimentary heading for mature; Fulton et al)
South-West Australia
Conceptual models exist (by Dambacher et al for KEFs), a couple of small
scale rudimentary EwE models (mainly for demersal species; LozanoMontes) exists and Atlantis model is under calibration (Lozano-Montes)
North-West Australia
Conceptual models exist (by Dambacher et al for KEFs), rudimentarymature models exist for Gascoyne and Pilbara both InVitro (Fulton et al,
Gray et al ) and EwE (Bulman, Hector-Lozano and Fulton), but in terms of
pelagic components more rudimentary and simplified than for demersal
stocks and habitats.
Northern Australia
Conceptual models exist (by Dambacher et al for KEFs), Gulf of
including Gulf of
Carpentaria has a mature EwE model (Bustamante et al, Okey et al), again
Carpentaria
more demersally focused, plus a MICE model (focused on prawns,
Plaganyi et al) and numerous multispecies models. Biggest gap in dynamic
models is across NT.
North-East Australia
Conceptual models exist (by Dambacher et al for KEFs), mature Atlantis
(incl GBR)
model exists for the Coral Sea (Hutton) and offshore waters down the east
coast, MICE and EwE models exists for ETBF region (Hillary, Griffiths).
Mature EwE models also complete for GBR (Gribble, Gerkhe), Atlantis
models under development (Fulton et al).
Whole of Australia
Partial models exist (BGC, Matear et al) with project proposals in place for
(Earth System, BGC
an Australia wide for a size-based model to be developed.
etc)
Purpose
This white paper will
1) Summarise the nature of pelagic ecosystems in Australia
a) Generalised structure and key drivers,
b) the global context of these ecosystems, and
c) the general types of changes in structure and function expected over the next 100 years
2) Review the current state of models of pelagic ecosystems in Australia.
3) Outline the priorities for research over the next 20 years.
TASK
In the first instance I am requesting that we develop a series of fact sheets by region, by functional
components and one on the status of our pelagic ecosystem modelling capability.
Regions:
• Antarctic and Subantarctic
• South-East Australia
• Great Australia Bight
• South-West Australia
• North-West Australia
• Northern Australia including Gulf of Carpentaria
• North-East Australia (incl GBR)
• Whole of Australia (Earth System, BGC etc)
Functional components:
• Microbes (this could be broken up according to expected functional representation in
models - I will be guided by the experts here)
• Zooplankton (as for microbes)
• Krill
• Planktivorous fish
• Piscivorous fish (including small sharks)
• Migratory fish - tuna, billfish
• Migratory fish - sharks
• Whales
• Seals & sea lions
• Flying birds
• Penguins
You don't have to fill out a whole fact sheet but only parts that you are comfortable with.
I have developed a draft for the Subantarctic and Antarctic to help give you some idea on what is
needed.
ATTACHMENT
Figure illustrating the relationship between different models ranging from Earth System models through end-to-end ecosystem models through MICE models
(Models of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem assessments) through sectoral specific models such as population models for stock assessments.
Shadow boxes represent ensemble models characterising different processes or structures. Example is for the Indian Sector of the Southern Ocean.
(a) Current
(b) Climate change
(c) Fishing
(d) Climate change and fishing
Sea Ice Extent (-)
Predators (-)
Krill
Growth
Recruitment
Reproduction
Diatoms (+)
CO2 (-)
(+/-)
Sea Ice
Extent (+)
(-)
Temperature
(+/-)
Retreat (+)
(+)
Constable & Kawaguchi (in prep)
Earth System
Ecosystem
MICE
Iron (+)
Light (+/-)
(-)
Sea Ice
Extent/Duration
Sectoral
FACT SHEET:
ANTARCTIC AND SUBANTARCTIC PELAGIC ECOSYSTEMS
Researchers
Who does the work in Australia (institutions plus key researchers & provide email addresses for
contacts):
Institutions

Australian Antarctic Division (Constable, Andrews-Goff, Bell, Bestley, Cox, Davidson, de la
Mare, Deagle, Double, Emmerson, Jarman, Kawaguchi, Meiners, Melbourne-Thomas, Miller,
Raymond, Southwell, Sumner, Westwood, Wotherspoon, Ziegler)

CSIRO (Fulton, Rintoul, Tilbrook, Trull)

Geosciences Australia (Post, Smith)

Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies (Boyd, Bowie, Hill, Hindell, Johnson, Lannuzel, Lea,
McMinn, Phillips, Strutton, Swadling, Wotherspoon)

Macquarie University (Harcourt)

Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (6 new staff)
International partners:

Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, France (Elaume, Pruvost)

Université Pierre et Marie Curie, France (Koubbi)

NIPR, Japan (Odate, Takahashi)

Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology (Moteki)
Key contacts

Andrew Constable

et al
State of Research
Maturity (brief history of pelagic ecosystem research & key references, reports [please send PDFs
and Endnote citations]):
•
Biogeochemical models available for Kerguelen region as well as whole of Southern
Ocean
•
Simple predator-krill models
•
Field programs oriented towards krill-based foodweb, lower trophic levels on SR3,
marine mammals & birds
•
Need a whole of system approach to the three questions underpinning model
development
•
NetLogo and Atlantis models almost ready for trials
•
Overal status of the capability is conceptual
Figure: structure of the end-to-end ecosystem model being developed for the
Indian Sector of the Southern Ocean (Fulton et al, in prep)
The state of knowledge of the different function components for representation in ecosystem models is
summarised in relation to the three primary questions (0 (red) = little local information; 1 (yellow) =
partial information; 2 (green) = sufficient local information to characterise this requirement):
Functional
Component
2
Key processes
& drivers
1
Connectivity
Zooplankton, small nekton
1
1
0
Large fish and squid
1
0
0
Marine mammals & birds
2
1
1
Microbes
1
Success of the research (how it rates internationally (ERA or like metrics) if these metrics are
available)
•
End-to-end modelling in the Indian Sector by Australian researchers is one of the
leading models for Southern Ocean ecosystems. It is part of the international IMBER
program, Integrating Climate and Ecosystem Dynamics of the Southern Ocean
(ICED).
Current funding (who funds this work currently)
•
CRC
•
AAS
•
ARC
•
IMOS
End-users
Who are the end users who benefit/will benefit from this research (directly or indirectly).
•
AFMA and fishing industry - krill, toothfish, icefish fisheries
•
Australian Government for CCAMLR, CEP, IWC - regional management and
conservation
•
Australian Government for IPCC and future adaptation -consequences of future
change on biodiversity e.g. ocean acidification, warming etc.
Current uptake of research (Evidence indicating end-user engagement - if available).
•
HIMI fisheries, conservation and management
•
CCAMLR Conservation Measures
Key science gaps/needs/challenges

whole of system studies, particular relating to the spatial relationships of the different
taxonomic componentsand the relative compositions of functional components e.g Kerguelen
axis versus SR3 line/Macquarie Axis

zooplankton and mid-trophic levels are the highest priority in terms of functional components
and autecological processes in order to link the better known microbes and marine mammals
and birds

simulations to identify key gaps and uncertainties in the models

role of sea ice, iron, temperature, seasonality, mixed layer depth, and ocean acidification in
driving the ecosystem dynamics (not just krill)
Key outcomes / national benefit
by 2020

spatial and future context for managing HIMI fisheries

leading role in regional management of Indian Sector of Southern Ocean
by 2025

effective implementation of precautionary ecosystem-based management in East Antarctica

leading role in outcomes for Indian Sector of Southern Ocean, in relation to emerging interests
of Indo-Pacific nations in the region.
by 2035

sustained approach to building cooperation and collaboration of global interests in the Indian
Sector, including environmentally sustainable activities with adaptation strategies for future
change.
Priorities
Specific science priorities (including linkages to international efforts, and why Australia needs to do
this work, particularly if we are not already world class)
Priorities to 2020
•
Spatial delineation of functional components and key autecological processes
•
Models linking habitat and biota, particularly related to sea ice and iron supply
•
Development of ensemble of models addressing the dynamics of the different
functional components
•
Design of observing system of essential variables for establishing the dynamic
models for use in assessments of status and trends in these ecosystems
Priorities to 2025
•
Effective assessments of status and trends in these ecosystems using data from
observing systems, with an emphasis on oceanic foodwebs
•
Identification of key gaps for assessments of ecosystem states in 2100
Priorities to 2035
•
Elaboration of coastal food web models with integrated benthic-pelagic coupling.
Realisation
Key infrastructure and capability requirements/impediments

Ship-time

Remote observations fo key biological parameters through gliders, moorings and/or innovative
solutions
Funding and coordination requirements/impediments

Funding for ongoing marine science in the Southern Ocean is required.
List of contributing authors and affiliations
References
FACT SHEET:
[XXX] PELAGIC ECOSYSTEMS
Researchers
Who does the work in Australia (institutions plus key researchers & provide email addresses for
contacts):
Institutions

International partners:

Key contacts

State of Research
Maturity (brief history of pelagic ecosystem research & key references, reports [please send PDFs
and Endnote citations]):
•
•
Overal status of the capability is ???
The state of knowledge of the different function components for representation in ecosystem models is
summarised in relation to the three primary questions (0 (red) = little local information; 1 (yellow) =
partial information; 2 (green) = sufficient local information to characterise this requirement): [Use cell
shading to give colour]
Functional
Component
Key processes
& drivers
Connectivity
Microbes
Zooplankton, small nekton
Large fish and squid
Marine mammals & birds
Success of the research (how it rates internationally (ERA or like metrics) if these metrics are
available)

Current funding (who funds this work currently)

End-users
Who are the end users who benefit/will benefit from this research (directly or indirectly).

Current uptake of research (Evidence indicating end-user engagement - if available).

Key science gaps/needs/challenges

Key outcomes / national benefit
by 2020

by 2025

by 2035

Priorities
Specific science priorities (including linkages to international efforts, and why Australia needs to do
this work, particularly if we are not already world class)
Priorities to 2020

Priorities to 2025

Priorities to 2035

Realisation
Key infrastructure and capability requirements/impediments

Funding and coordination requirements/impediments

List of contributing authors and affiliations
References
FACT SHEET:
[XXX] FUNCTIONAL COMPONENT
Researchers
Who does the work in Australia (institutions plus key researchers & provide email addresses for
contacts):
Institutions

International partners:

Key contacts

State of Research
Maturity (brief history of pelagic ecosystem research & key references, reports [please send PDFs
and Endnote citations]):
•
•
Overal status of the capability is ???
Status of the three questions relative to functional components:
Diversity in the functional component:
•
Key autecological processes for the function component:
•
Key drivers or external processes influencing the function component:
•
Spatial connectivity of the functional component:
•
Success of the research (how it rates internationally (ERA or like metrics) if these metrics are
available)

Current funding (who funds this work currently)

End-users
Who are the end users who benefit/will benefit from this research (directly or indirectly).

Current uptake of research (Evidence indicating end-user engagement - if available).

Key science gaps/needs/challenges

Key outcomes / national benefit
by 2020

by 2025

by 2035

Priorities
Specific science priorities (including linkages to international efforts, and why Australia needs to do
this work, particularly if we are not already world class)
Priorities to 2020

Priorities to 2025

Priorities to 2035

Realisation
Key infrastructure and capability requirements/impediments

Funding and coordination requirements/impediments

List of contributing authors and affiliations
References