Supplementary Information 3
1. A selection of sources used in implementing criteria for including series in the
analysis, assigning trophic role, and estimating time to maturity in the major taxonomic
groups. Experts consulted are also listed.
Mammals
(Altman & Dittmer, 1972), (Banfield, 1974), (Bulmer, 1974), (Bunnel & Tait, 1985),
(Finerty, 1980), (Fitzgerald et al., 1994), (Frafjord, 1993), (Forchhammer & Boertmann,
1993), (Hodgdon & Lancia, 1983), (Jedrzejewska et al., 1997), (King, 1989), (Klenner,
1987), (Rogers, 1987), (Krebs et al., 2001a; Krebs et al., 2001b), (Kurta, 1995),
(Lindstrom et al., 1994), (Macpherson, 1969), (Marcstrom et al., 1989), (Messick &
Hornocker, 1981), (Nowak & Paradiso, 1983), (O'Donoghue et al., 2001a; O'Donoghue et
al., 2001b), (Peterson & Payne, 1986), (Poole, 1994), (Quinn & Thompson, 1987),
(Simpson & Boutin, 1989), (Slough & Mowat, 1996) (Small et al., 1993), (Stenseth et al.,
1999; Stenseth et al., 1998), (Svendsen, 1989), (Swihart, 1984)
Experts consulted: O. Bjornstad, B.K, Gilbert, S. Henke, J. Fryxell, C. J. Krebs, L.
Oksanen, M. Tewes.
Birds
(Hudson et al., 1998), (Johnsgard, 1983), (Kendeigh, 1982), (Kuyt & Goossen, 1985),
(Newton et al., 1989), (Price, 1961), (Roseberry & Klimstra, 1984), (Watson et al., 1998),
(Williamson, 1983)
Experts consulted: P.J. Hudson, S. Taylor.
Fish
(Brander, 1994), (Burgner, 1991), (Fried & Wespestad, 1985), (Garrod & Horwood,
1984), (Hamrin & Persson, 1986), (Healey, 1987), (Heard, 1991), (Hesthagen & Garnaas,
1984), (Hislop et al., 1991), (Jenings & Beverton, 1991), (Mills & Hurley, 1990), (Myers
& Cadigan, 1993), (Myers et al., 1997), (Scarnecchia, 1983), (Stearns & Crandall, 1984),
(Townsend et al., 1990), (U.N., 1990) R.A. Myers online database:
http://fish.dal.ca/~myers/data.html.
Invertebrates
(Bejer, 1988), (Berryman, 1991; Berryman, 1988), (Berryman, 1996), (Botsford, 1986),
(Botsford & Hobbs, 1995), (Bryceson & Wright, 1986), (Fox-Wilson, 1946), (Haukioja
et al., 1988), (Higgins et al., 1997), (Klimetzek, 1990), (Marrkulla, 1965), (Novak, 1963),
(van Dijk & den Boer, 1992), (Varley, 1949)
2. Evidence that maximum λ in nature is about 10
Among annually-reproducing “resource” species in natural or semi-natural environments,
insect pests in forests have been well-studied and have among the highest rates of
population increase recorded. The larch budmoth appears to have the largest λ of any
such insect: one population increased roughly 20,000-fold in 6 years (i.e. 6 generations).
The population expanded exponentially during three periods lasting 4, 4, and 5 years
(Fig. 1), with mean λ = 7.1, and λmax = 8. (Morris, 1959) estimated λ = 5 for a budworm
outbreaking population in Canada, though we calculate a possible (but unlikely)
maximum of 10. The rate from another pest species, California red scale is even lower:
Data from a citrus tree in which natural enemies had been killed by DDT give a
maximum λ = 3.14 over a 15-month period (Fig. 9, (DeBach et al., 1971)).
Results from analyses by (Hassell et al., 1976) give strong support to this generalization.
Using information from life tables, they calculated λ for 24 annual insect species. We reestimated 3 of their values that were originally > 10 (including the budworm example)
and find them to be 1.8, 4.6 and 5-10. Thus, λ < 10 in 20 of the 24 species. Of the 4
populations with higher λ, three are not relevant to this study: one was from a laboratory
study, one was potato beetles inoculated into isolated experimental plots of potatoes
largely lacking natural enemies, and one was from domestic mosquito populations
lacking natural enemies. We have not been able to check on the remaining case (λ =
11.2).
Figure 1.
Budmoth density
1000
100
10
1
0.1
0.01
0.001
1940
1950
1960
Year
1970
1980
References
Altman, P.L. & Dittmer, D.S. (1972) Biology data book, 2nd. edn. Federation of
American societies for experimental biology, Bethesda, Md.
Banfield (1974) The mammals of Canada University of Toronto Press, Toronto.
Bejer, B. (1988). The nun moth in European spruce forests. In Dynamics of forest insect
populations: patterns, causes, implications (ed A.A. Berryman), pp. 212-233. Plenum
Press, New York.
Berryman, A.A. (1991) The gypsy moth in North America: A case of successful
biological control? TREE, 6, 110-111.
Berryman, A.A. (1996) What causes population cycles of forest Lepidoptera? TREE, 11,
28-32.
Berryman, A.A.E. (1988) Dynamics of forest insect populations: patterns, causes,
implications Plenum Press, New York.
Botsford, L.W. (1986) Effects of environmental forcing on age-structured populations:
northern California Dungeness crab (Cancer magister) as an example. Canadian Journal
of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 43, 2345-2352.
Botsford, L.W. & Hobbs, R.C. (1995) Recent advances in the understanding of cyclic
behavior of dungeness crab (Cancer magister) populations. ICES Marine Science
Symposia, 199, 157-166.
Brander, K.e. (1994). Spawning and life history information for North Atlantic cod
stocks, Rep. No. ICES Cooperative Research Report, No. 205. International Council for
the Exploration of the Sea, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Bryceson, K.P. & Wright, D.E. (1986) An analysis of the 1984 locust plague in Australia
using multitemporal landsat multispectral data and a simulation model of locust
development. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 16, 87-102.
Bulmer, M.G. (1974) A statistical analysis of the 10-year cycle in Canada. Journal of
Animal Ecology, 43, 701-718.
Bunnel, F.L. & Tait, D.E.N. (1985) Mortality rates of North American bears. Arctic, 38,
316-323.
Burgner (1991). Life history of the sockeye salmon. In Pacific salmon life histories (eds
Groot & Margolis), Vol. University of British Columbia Press, Vancouver.
DeBach, P., Rosen, D., & Kennett, C.E. (1971). Biological control of coccids by
introduced natural enemies. In Biological Control (ed C.B. Huffaker), pp. 165-194.
Plenum, New York.
Finerty, J.P. (1980) The population ecology of cycles in small mammals: mathematical
theory and biological fact Yale University Press, New Haven.
Fitzgerald, J.P., Meaney, C.A., & Armstrong, D.M. (1994) The mammals of Colorado
Denver Museum of Natural History and University Press of Colorado, Denver.
Forchhammer, M. & Boertmann, D. (1993) The muskoxen Ovibos moschatus in north
and northeast Greenland: Population trends and the influence of abiotic parameters on
population dynamics. Ecography, 16, 299-308.
Fox-Wilson, G. (1946) Factors affecting populations of social wasps, Vespula species, in
England (Hymenoptera). Proceedings of the Royal Entomological Society, London,
Series A, 21, 17-27.
Frafjord, K. (1993) Reproductive effort in the arctic fox: a review. Norwegian Journal of
Agricultural Science, 7, 301-309.
Fried & Wespestad (1985) Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 42
(suppl. 1), 181-191.
Garrod, D.J. & Horwood, J.W. (1984). Reproductive strategies and the response to
exploitation. In Fish Reproduction (eds G.W. Potts & R.J. Wootton), pp. 367-384.
Academic Press, New York.
Hamrin, S. & Persson, L. (1986) Asymmetrical competition between age classes as a
factor causing population oscillations in an obligate planktivorous fish species. Oikos, 47,
223-232.
Hassell, M.P., Lawton, J.H., & May, R.M. (1976) Patterns of dynamical behavior in
single species populations. Journal of Animal Ecology, 45, 471-86.
Haukioja, E., Neuvonen, S., Hanhimaki, S., & Niemala, P. (1988). The autumnal moth in
Fennoscandia. In Dynamics of forest insect populations: patterns, causes, implications
(ed A.A. Berryman), pp. 164-179. Plenum Press, New York.
Healey, M.C. (1987). The adaptive significance of age and size at maturity in female
sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka). In Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka):
Population biology and future management (eds Smith, Margolis & Wood), pp. 110-117.
Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Ottawa.
Heard (1991). Life history of pink salmon. In Pacific Salmon Life Histories (eds Groot &
Margolis), pp. 120-230. University of British Columbia Press, Vancouver.
Hesthagen & Garnaas (1984) Smolt age and size of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar L. and
sea trout Salmo trutta L. in Norwegian rivers. Fauna Norvegica, Ser. A, 5, 46-49.
Higgins, K., Hastings, A., & Botsford, L.W. (1997) Density dependence and age
structure: Nonlinear dynamics and population behavior. American Naturalist, 149, 247269.
Hislop, J.R.G., Robb, A.P., Bell, M.A., & Armstrong, D.W. (1991) The diet and food
consumption of whiting (Merlangius merlangus) in the North Sea. ICES Journal of
Marine Science, 48, 139-156.
Hodgdon, H.E. & Lancia, R.A. (1983) Behavior of the North American beaver. Acta
Zoologica Fennica, 174, 99-103.
Hudson, P.J., Dobson, A.P., & Newborn, D. (1998) Prevention of population cycles by
parasite removal. Science, 282, 2256-2258.
Jedrzejewska, B., Jedrzejewski, W., Bunevich, A.N., Milkowski, L., & Krasinski, Z.A.
(1997) Factors shaping population densities and increase rates of ungulates in Bialowieza
primeval forest (Poland and Belarus) in the 19th and 20th centuries. Acta Theriologica,
42, 399-541.
Jenings, S. & Beverton, R.J.H. (1991) Intraspecific variation in the life history tactics of
Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) stocks. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 48, 117-126.
Johnsgard (1983) The grouse of the world University of Nebraska Press.
Kendeigh, S.C. (1982) Bird populations in east central Illinois: fluctuations, variations,
and development over a half-century University of Illinois Press.
King, C. (1989) The natural history of weasels and stoats Christopher Helm, London.
Klenner, W. (1987) Seasonal movements and home range utilization patterns of the black
bear in western Manitoba [Canada]. Canadian Field Naturalist, 101, 558-568.
Klimetzek, D. (1990). Population dynamics of pine-feeding insects: a historical study. In
Population dynamics of forest insects (eds A.D. Watt, S.R. Leather, M.D. Hunter &
N.A.C. Kidd), pp. 408. Intercept, Andover.
Krebs, C.J., Boonstra, R., Boutin, S., & Sinclair, A.R.E. (2001a) What drives the 10-year
cycle of snowshoe hares? Bioscience, 51, 25-35.
Krebs, C.J., Boutin, S., & Boonstra, R. (2001b) Ecosystem dynamics of the boreal forest:
the Kluane project Oxford University Press, New York.
Kurta, A. (1995) Mammals of the Great Lakes region University of Michigan Press, Ann
Arbor.
Kuyt, E. & Goossen, P. (1985). Survival, age composition, sex ratio and age at first
breeding of whooping cranes in Wood Buffalo National Park, Canada. In Proceedings:
1985 Crane workshop (ed J.C. Lewis), pp. 230-244. Platte River Whooping Crane
Maintenance Trust, NE, USA.
Lindstrom, E.R., Andren, H., Angelstam, P., Cederlund, G., Hornfeldt, B., Jaderberg, L.,
Lemnell, P.-A., Martinsson, B., Skold, K., & Swenson, J.E. (1994) Disease reveals the
predator: Sarcoptic mange, red fox predation, and prey populations. Ecology (Tempe),
75, 1042-1049.
Macpherson, A.H. (1969). The dynamics of Canadian arctic fox populations, Rep. No. 8.
Dept. of Indian Affairs and Northern Dept., Ottawa.
Marcstrom, V., Keith, L.B., Engren, E., & Gary, J.R. (1989) Demographic responses of
arctic hares (Lepus timidus) to experimental reductions of red foxess (Vulpes vulpes) and
martens (Martes martes). Canadian Journal of Zoology, 67, 658-668.
Marrkulla, M. (1965) Pests of cultivated plants in Finland 1965. Maatalous ja
koetiominta, 20, 185-195.
Messick & Hornocker (1981) Ecology of the badger in southwestern Idaho. Wildlife
Monographs, 76, 1-53.
Mills, C.A. & Hurley, M.A. (1990) Long-term studies on the Windermere populations of
perch Perca fluviatilis, pike Esox lucius, and arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus. Freshwater
Biology, 23, 119-136.
Morris, R.F. (1959) Single-factor analysis in population dynamics. Ecology, 40, 580-588.
Myers, R.A. & Cadigan, N.G. (1993) Density-dependent juvenile mortality in marine
demersal fish. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 50, 1576-1590.
Myers, R.A., Mertz, G., & Fowlow, P.S. (1997) Maximum population growth rates and
recovery times for Atlantic cod, Gadus morhau. Fishery Bulletin, 95, 762-772.
Newton, I., Davis, P.E., & Davis, J.E. (1989) Age of first breeding, dispersal and survival
of red kites Milvus milvus in Wales {UK]. Ibis, 131, 16-21.
Novak, I. (1963) An efficient light-trap for catching insects. Acta Entomologica
Bohemoslovaca, 80, 29-34.
Nowak & Paradiso (1983) Walker's mammals of the world, 4th edn. Johns Hopkins
University Press, Baltimore.
O'Donoghue, M., Boutin, S., Hofer, E.J., & Boonstra, R. (2001a). Other mammalian
predators. In Ecosystem dynamics of the boreal forest: the Kluane project (eds C.J.
Krebs, S. Boutin & R. Boonstra), pp. 325-340. Oxford University Press, New York.
O'Donoghue, M., Boutin, S., Murray, D.L., Krebs, C.J., Hofer, E.J., Breitenmoser, U.,
Breitenmoser-Wuersten, C., Zuleta, G., Doyle, C., & Nams, V.O. (2001b). Coyotes and
lynx. In Ecosystem dynamics of the boreal forest: the Kluane project (eds C.J. Krebs, S.
Boutin & R. Boonstra), pp. 275-324. Oxford University Press, New York.
Peterson, R.P. & Payne, N.F. (1986) Productivity, size, age and sex structure of nuisance
beaver colonies in Wisconsin. Journal of Wildlife Management, 50, 265-268.
Poole, K.G. (1994) Characteristics of an unharvested lynx population during a snowshoe
hare decline. Journal of Wildlife Management, 58, 608-618.
Price, M.P. (1961) Warbler fluctuations in oak woodland in the Severn valley. British
Birds, 54, 100-106.
Quinn & Thompson (1987) Dynamics of an exploited Canadian lynx population in
Ontario. Journal of Wildlife Management, 51, 297-305.
Rogers, L.L. (1987) Effects of food supply and kinship on social behavior, movements
and population growth of black bears in northeastern Minnesota [USA]. Wildlife
Monographs, 97, 1-72.
Roseberry, J.L. & Klimstra, W.D. (1984) Population ecology of the bobwhite Southern
Illinois University Press, Carbondale and Edwardsville.
Scarnecchia, D.L. (1983) Age and sexual maturity in Icelandic stocks of Atlantic salmon
(Salmo salar). Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 40, 1456-1468.
Simpson, M.R. & Boutin, S. (1989) Muskrat population responses to harvest on the Old
Crow Flats, Yukon Territory [Canada]. Canadian Field Naturalist, 103, 420-422.
Slough, B.G. & Mowat, G. (1996) Lynx population dynamics in an untrapped refugium.
Journal of Wildlife Management, 60, 946-961.
Small, R.J., Marcstrom, V., & Willebrand, T. (1993) Synchronous and nonsynchronous
population fluctuations of some predators and their prey in central Sweden. Ecography,
16, 360-364.
Stearns, S.C. & Crandall, R.E. (1984). Plasticity for age and size at sexual maturity: a
life-history response to unavoidable stress. In Fish reproduction (eds G.W. Potts & R.J.
Wootton), pp. 13-34. Academic Press, New York.
Stenseth, N.C., Chan, K.-S., Tong, H., Boonstra, R., Boutin, S., Krebs, C.J., Post, E.,
O'Donoghue, M., Yoccoz, N.G., Forchhammer, M.C., & Hurrell, J.W. (1999) Common
dynamic structure of Canada lynx populations within three climatic regions. Science
(Washington D C), 285, 1071-1073.
Stenseth, N.C., Falck, W., Chan, K.-S., Bjornstad, O.N., O'Donoghue, M., Tong, H.,
Boonstra, R., Boutin, S., Krebs, C.J., & Yoccoz, N.G. (1998) From patterns to processes:
Phase and density dependencies in the Canadian lynx cycle. Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 95, 15430-15435.
Svendsen, G.E. (1989) Pair formation, duration of pair-bonds, and mate replacement in a
population of beavers. Canadian Journal of Zoology, 67, 336-340.
Swihart, R.K. (1984) Body size, breeding season length, and life history tactics of
lagomorphs. Oikos, 43, 282-290.
Townsend, C.R., Sutherland, W.J., & Perrow, M.R. (1990) A modelling investigation of
population cycles in the fish Rutilus rutilus. Journal of Animal Ecology, 59, 469-485.
U.N., F.a.A.O.F.o.t. (1990). Gadiforme fishes of the world (Order Gadiformes), Rep. No.
10. FAO Species Catalogue, Fisheries Synopsis n. 125, Rome.
van Dijk, T.S. & den Boer, P.J. (1992) The life histories and population dynamics of two
carabid species on a Dutch heathland: 1. Fecundity and mortality of immature stages.
Oecologia, 90, 340-352.
Varley, G.C. (1949) Population changes in German forest pests. Journal of Animal
Ecology, 18, 117-122.
Watson, A., Moss, R., & Rae, S. (1998) Population dynamics of Scottish Rock Ptarmigan
cycles. Ecology, 79, 1174-1192.
Williamson, M. (1983) The land-bird community of Skokholm: ordination and turnover.
Oikos, 41, 378-384.