Integrated Vulnerability Assessment (Exercise VIII)
Aim:
The aim of the integrated vulnerability assessment (VA) exercise was to summarise and link the results from the previous exercises I-VII in a way that
integrates the key elements of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Concrete steps to fill the gaps, capitalise the opportunities and
overcome the barriers were outlined in the action plan.
Process description:
Workshop for project partners on integrated VA was held in SEI Tallinn seminar room on April 20, 2010. Before the meeting, the main outcomes of
previously conducted exercises were summarised in a format of the scheme and table (see below) and sent to the workshop participants. Exercises II-V and
VII were done in project seminars during January-March 2010. Regarding Exercise VI, the results of the stakeholder mapping from the Inventory phase were
used in the scheme of integrated VA. Exercise I was discussed together with the participants at the workshop on April 20. While in Exercises IV and V we
had considered socio-economic sensitivity and adaptation measures for the Target Area as a whole, then in Exercises VI and VII we focused only on transport
– the sector of our implementation cases.
First at the workhop, where 11 people from project partner organisations participated, the previously summarised outputs of the exercises were reviewed. The
next step was to compile the action plan for reducing vulnerability and capitalising opportunities in transport and land use of the Target Area (TA). In the
column „Filling the gaps“ we discussed the issues which had arisen during the vulnerability assessment phase of the project and which need to be solved in
further work. The column „Capitalising the opportunities“ comprises of new linkages that were found between the major climate and socio-economic impact
factors in the TA and transport. In „Overcoming the barriers“, factors that have so far hindered the TA from reaching the goals set in the implementation
case, are explained and solutions offered. The completed action plan was sent after the workshop to all project partners for commenting.
Action plan:
The main actions are two implementation cases: 1) study of integrating and optimising public transport (PT) in Southwest-Harju and Rapla railway corridor,
and 2) thematic plan (TP) for developing non-motorised transport (cycling, walking) in Harju and Rapla counties. The outcome of both studies will be
concrete activities which will be implemented and recommendations to local governments and state with regard to the development of public transport and
cycling. In addition to these target groups, seminars will be organised for planners and businesses who are active in the TA.
Time frame of the actions is the project period: from the year 2010 until 2012.
The main actors are all project partners. PT implementation case is the main responsibility of Harju PT Centre, TP of cycling is the joint responsibility of
Harju and Rapla county governments.
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Scheme of Integrated Vulnerability Assessment
I How might future society be:
Globally the major drivers of change
are increase of population and
consumption. Resources will become
more expensive, this promotes more
sustainable use of them, oil peak is
over. More power will be at
international level. Economic growth
will vary by regions. Environmental
awareness increases as well as
inequality among people
II Climatic stressor mapping:
More frequent extreme weather
events, increase of minimum t°, day
and night t° fluctuations around 0°,
increase in annual precipitation, more
frequent storms, decrease in snow
cover duration, earlier springs, higher
risk for landscape fires
III Socio-economic stressor
mapping:
Aging population
Migration
Globalisation
V Adaptive capacity: Stricter
requirements to road building and
maintenance, more frequent
maintenance of sewerage and power
line corridors, using rainfall-filtering
covers on roads and roofs, taking into
consideration less consumption of heat
energy, mapping risk areas in
municipality comprehensive plans,
planning greenery at the cycle paths,
growing suitable crops and mixed
forests, creating fire water supply places,
etc.
IV Socio-economic sensitivity:
Impact on energy sector and public
utilities network, road building and
maintenance, agriculture and
forestry, winter sports and winter
tourism
Exposure
Sensitivity
Potential
Impact
VIII Integrated
Vulnerability Assessment
Adaptive Capacity
VI Key actors and responsibilities
(transport):
Local governments, county
governments, Harju public transport
centre, passengers, car users,
planners, passenger transport
companies, road building companies,
service and commercial enterprises,
educational institutions
Vulnerability
VII Limits of adaptation measures (transport):
Sparse population; not integrated planning of new
settlements and transport; low awareness, capacity
and traffic culture; missing principles and decisions of
long-term financing of PT and cycling, poor condition
of railway
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Action plan for for reducing vulnerability and capitalising opportunities in transport and land use in the Target Area
SUMMARY OF
EXERCISES I-VII
ACTION PLAN
Filling the gaps
Capitalising the opportunities
Overcoming the barriers
1. What are the suitable requirements for road
infrastructure, road building and maintenance,
taking into consideration:
- increasing amount of precipitation, especially
in winter as rain and sleet, and increasing heavy
precipitation;
- increasing minimum temperatures and warmer
winters;
- day and night temperature fluctuations around
0°
- risk of floods
- higher variability of precipitation in
wintertime (incl winters with poor snow and
heavy snow)
1. Infrastructure, incl. bus and train stops need
to be suitable for weather conditions.
To make proposal to the Ministry of Economic
Affairs that construction procurements should
include requirements for PT waiting platforms,
shelters and bicycle parking lots that
correspond to weather conditions.
In PT implementation case, the turnover of bus
and train stops (amount of passengers) will be
calculated. According to this, standard solutions
for bus and train stops can be planned.
Proposals for standard solutions will be
developed in the PT implementation case.
1. Increasing fossil fuel prices drive shift to
public transport and cycling.
1. Poor condition of railway line and train
stops.
1. Public transport (PT) implementation case
will investigate the possibilities for integrating
and optimising PT in South-West-Harju and
Rapla counties. Main responsible actor – Harju
PT Centre
1. In PT implementation case, socio-economic
cost-benefit analysis will be carried out to find
out in which parts of the railway line there is
demand (enough passengers) for increasing the
speed of trains. Whether it is possible to
increase the speed on current railway or which
infrastructure investments are needed, has to be
investigated in the next studies.
Road maintenance requirements are defined by
the regulation of Minister of Economic Affairs.
To invite experts from the Technical Centre of
Estonian Roads Ltd and Estonian Road
Administration to the seminar on climate
change, transport and mobility to discuss these
Thematic plan (TP) for non-motorised transport
(cycling, walking roads) will be developed for
Harju and Rapla counties.
Project manager will be hired jointly by Harju
and Rapla county governments.
Other initiatives: online PT monitoring system
is being developed. Project is coordinated by
Estonian Road Administration.
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issues (in Saku, May 18, 2010).
Road maintenance requirements have take into
account more whether the road is used by the
PT and accordingly to define the requirements
for snow removal, de-icing, etc. Proposals for
changing maintenance requirements on certain
roads will be made in the PT implementation
case.
At present different owners of roads make
separate procurements for road maintenance
contracts. Due to separating local and state
roads, the resources for maintenance are used
ineffectively. To make proposals to local
governments and Estonian Road Administration
to carry out regional co-operative
procurements. To discuss this issue in next
project seminars.
To make proposal to WPLs to exchange
experiences with other project partners in Riga
seminar:
- what are the standard requirements for
infrastructure in the public transport stops
(waiting platform, shelter, toilette, bicycle
parking lots, etc.) in sparsely and densely
populated areas? How do these standards take
into account climate conditions?
- how do the local governments and state
cooperate in organising the maintenance of
roads in extreme weather conditions?
- have the requirements for road construction
and maintenance been changed due to the
changing climate?
- how the maintenance of roads (e.g. in winter)
is organised in the road network where roads
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have different owners, especially for ensuring
public transport operation? Piret has sent the email to Hannu.
SUMMARY OF
EXERCISES I-VII
2.What are the suitable measures for
developing cycling in the TA, taking into
consideration:
- more frequent strong winds
- less snow cover duration and earlier springs
2. With less snow cover duration and earlier
springs there will be more cycling and
maintenance of roads and streets is cheaper
than in winters with heavy snow.
2. There has been no integrated planning of
new settlements and transport in the TA.
ACTION PLAN
2. TP of cycling will map existing roads with
different surfaces suitable for cycling, their
connection with existing park paths, nature
trails and hiking paths, and will plan necessary
greenery at the cycle paths.
2. To develop pilot projects and guidelines with
new solutions for cycling. Greenery and
landscape architecture companies will get more
orders. To discuss these issues in next seminars
(incl in Saku, May 18, 2010).
2. In TP of cycling, cycle paths to PT nodes, to
new settelements and areas of summer houses
are planned.
3. What are the suitable mobility management
measures taking into consideration ageing
population in the TA and supporting population
increase?
3. In PT implementation case, access by PT to
service and commercial areas, schools,
kindergartens, etc. is analysed. Also, access to
PT stops and suitability of waiting platforms for
people of different age groups are analysed.
Proposals for improvement will be made.
3. EU policies support the use of PT and nonmotorised transport (cycling, walking).
3. Principles and decisions on long-term
financing of PT and cycling (infrastructure and
traffic management) are missing.
3. If the security for financing PT and bicycle
roads by state improves, then more companies
are interested to develop new products and
services of PT and cycling. To plan seminar on
climate change, transport and mobility with
companies (in Saku, May 18, 2010).
3. In PT implementation case, bus lines will be
analysed by bus service areas: what are the
costs for improving the bus service level (to
have more buses, more frequent timetable,
appropriate size of buses, shorter distance to the
bus stop). Service standards that were
developed in Thematic Plan of Social
Infrastructure will be specified taking into
account the demand of potential passengers
(incl current car users). Corresponding
proposals will be made.
SUMMARY OF
EXERCISES I-VII
ACTION PLAN
In TP of cycling, safety of cycle paths, access
to kindergartens, schools, service and
commercial areas etc. are analysed and
proposals for improvement will be made.
In PT implementation case, PT service in the
TA is analysed and opening new bus lines in
areas of summer houses and new settlements
are considered. Based on the demand, proposals
for improving PT service will be made.
To review the financing principles of PT, traffic
management and infrastructure. To make
proposal for the development of long-term
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SUMMARY OF
EXERCISES I-VII
ACTION PLAN
4. Strengths of the Target Area (TA):
- existence of railway and settlements in the
railway corridor, habit of using trains
- cooperation between local governments
- flat land which facilitates cycling
4. Compiling guidelines for planning and
design of sustainable mobility and traffic
calming measures. To discuss these issues in
next seminars (incl. in Saku, May 18, 2010).
finanacial plan of sustainable transport – in
order to give assurance to local governments
and counties to develop PT and cycling – by
establishing the sustainable transport fund
(which is included in the national transport
development plan, but has not been
implemented).
4. Low awareness and capacity of planners and
decision-makers to develop PT and cycling.
5. Present traffic culture does not support
cycling.
4., 5. To plan the seminar in Estonia on
measures of sustainable mobility and traffic
calming. Target group: planners, decisionmakers, journalists.
To make proposal to WPLs to organise study
visits in BalticClimate transnational seminars
for project partners, planners and politicians:
how project partners develop PT and cycling.
Piret has sent the e-mail to Hannu.
SUMMARY OF
EXERCISES I-VII
5. Environmental and health awareness is
improving.
6. Lack of bicycle parking lots in the TA.
ACTION PLAN
5. Demand for bike transport innovations and
bicycle infrastructure solutions – covered
parking lots, holders, etc – will increase. To
discuss these issues in next seminars (incl. in
Saku, May 18, 2010).
6. As a result of ongoing procurement of new
trains the comfort of using trains should
improve.
6. Value of land near train stops will increase –
opportunity for providing new services there.
To discuss these issues in next seminars (incl.
in Saku, May 18, 2010).
6. In the TP for cycling, new bicycle parking
lots will be planned, existing parking lots will
be mapped, norms for bicycle parking lots at
new houses and residential buildings will be
determined.
7. Relatively small number of inhabitants,
sparse population in the TA.
SUMMARY OF
EXERCISES I-VII
ACTION PLAN
7. PT implementation case will make proposals
which areas need additional transportation
services: shuttle buses, car sharing/pooling, taxi
support or private car support to carry children
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SUMMARY OF
EXERCISES I-VII
ACTION PLAN
to school, etc.
Proposals will be made to influence settlement
patterns according to compact city principles
and make public investments in areas around
train stops.
8. Local services and commerce have moved
from central areas to fringe areas.
8. In TP of cycling, access to these areas on
foot and by bike will be planned.
PT implementation case analyses access to
services by PT. Proposals will be made to
invest public money in places accessible on
foot and by PT, especially by train.
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