DRAFT TEMPLATE: 2013 CHAP REGIONAL WORKSHOPS Please note that responses in the template should be brief. The Template is intended to present a summary only. Central Highlands Current Humanitarian Context, ie situation at the time of the meeting/. Prioritization of humanitarian needs/ indicators: Central Highlands consists of two provinces viz; Bamyan and Daykundy. There are seven districts in Bamyan and eight districts in Daykundy respectively. This is a region that is relatively secure compared to most parts of Afghanistan, however recently there has been a surge in AGE activities in Shibar and Kahmard districts bordering with Baghlan and in Kajran and Gizab bordering with Uruzgan and Helmand. Major natural hazards in hazards ranked according to frequency and severity include; Extreme cold temperatures (winter), floods, avalanches, landslides, disease outbreak, animal diseases (epizootics) and drought. Earthquakes are rare in Central highlands, but if they are to happen the impact is higher because of the community’s false sense of security and mountainous landscape. Human induced hazards include deforestation (increases run off and erosion, triggers landslides and avalanches), and conflict mainly in the four districts cited above. Priority needs for natural hazards: Emergency shelter/NFI, Health/Nutrition, WASH, social protection safety nets, food security. All these should be benchmarked on SPHERE minimum standards. Priority needs for human induced hazards: Water provision, protection, Emergency shelter/NFI, Emergency Health services, WASH (emergency sanitation) Psychosocial support to those who are traumatised, food security. Reforestation was also cited as an intervention that will mitigate the environmental degradation and water harvesting as a means for sustained water availability. All these should be benchmarked on SPHERE minimum standards. Context Elements: Natural Hazards: Floods Long Extreme cold temperatures (Winter) Avalanches Landslides Drought Disease outbreaks (Pneumonia, Measles, Diarrhea) Animal diseases (Epizootics) Earthquakes (rear) Man Made Hazards: Deforestation – (erosion, triggering landslides and avalanches) Conflict - confined only to two districts bordering Baghlan and Urozgan Bamyan Province: Increase in AGE activities in some parts of Kahmard and Shibar districts that may result in shrinking humanitarian access Security concerns from neighboring provinces (insecurity on the route passing through Parwan and Afghanistan: Regional 2013 CHAP preparatory workshops 1 Wardak provinces increased civilian causalities from Central Highlands) Closure of offices by some international (UN) agencies who were implementing through NGOs, this might lead to an exodus of NGOs/Humanitarian actors Hindered physical access – during winter Floods affect all districts and mostly Yakawlang, Kahmard, Saighan, Drought – most districts are prone with the exception of Kahmard in Bamyan, Kijran in Daykundy. Daykundy Province: Unavailability of air transportation between Nili (Daykundy) and Kabul Road accessibility during winter is difficult and challenging. Decrease in road accessibility due to deteriorating security in neighboring provinces. Good Security situation in most of the districts is an advantage for humanitarian activities. Limited presence of NGOs in Daykundy and ad hoc coordination among humanitarian actors, and low capacity and less funding on the part of local/national NGOs. Closure of offices by international organization like WFP and UNAMA. Absence of reliable population data Indicators: Emergency Shelter & NFI: % of affected people (natural hazards/conflict) who receive emergency shelter and NFI # of assessments carried out after an emergency # and type of prepositioned emergency stocks Protection: % of population with good security % of CDCs accessible by humanitarian actors % of women participating in social/community activities % of elderly and vulnerable children who receive assistance Nutrition and food Security: % of people affected by drought % of returnee Afghans with access to arable land % of children (under five) admitted for nutritional support WASH % of population with access to safe drinking water and sanitation % reduction in oral feacal diseases % reduction in the number of people affected by water-borne diseases Health: % of population with access to safe drinking water and sanitation % reduction in oral feacal diseases % reduction in the number of people affected by water-borne diseases Education: % and number of children (Girls and Boys) who have access to education Teacher/Pupil ratio Number of functional schools Current Caseload: List affected populations, indicating the reason for their vulnerability and current number if available (state if this is estimated rather than confirmed). You may indicate if the groups are Afghanistan: Regional 2013 CHAP preparatory workshops 2 currently assisted by the humanitarian community Projected Humanitarian caseload - Natural hazards: this is estimated at 9,000 families (63,000 individuals). That is 4,500 families (31,500 individuals) in Bamyan and a similar caseload for Daykundy. The population is vulnerable to the major hazards above. Projected Humanitarian caseload – Conflict: This will be determined by the scale and scope of the conflict. Ironically the region can also play host of IDPs from other provinces/regions. Common: - Extreme cold temperatures that results in physical access to health facilities and schools being hindered. - Security deterioration in the districts neighbouring unsecure province have its general affects to all clusters - Concern over influx of returnees to provincial town centres. Health: - Difficult access to health centres due to remoteness and physical inaccessibility during winter. - Insufficient Mobile Clinics. - Low vaccination coverage. - Lack of qualified doctors Education: - Limited education provision during winter due to remoteness of areas and unavailability of heating facilities. - Child labour, long distance to schools. - Unsecure districts and cultural and gender related issues. - Lack of qualified teachers and high teacher/pupil ratio. Nutrition/Food Insecurity: - Drought related - Poor means of subsistence/livelihood - limited access to nutritious and diversified food, - Poor pasture management - Concern over influx of returnees to provincial capital centres - Lack of awareness on nutrition and food diversification. - Limited access to arable land. WASH: - Low access to safe potable drinking water. - Low sanitation coverage and poor health and Hygiene practices. - Water sources/points are open and unprotected - Limited hygiene awareness. ES/NFIS: - Exposure to extreme cold temperatures, landslides, floods and displacement. Most Likely Scenario. ie: what the humanitarian community believes WILL happen over the next twelve Afghanistan: Regional 2013 CHAP preparatory workshops 3 months. This scenario normally forms the basis for humanitarian planning, especially within the CHAP framework where applicable. Bamyan: Surge in AGE and criminal activities especially in (Kahmard, Shiber districts in Bamyan and Gizab and Kijran districts in Daykundy) bordering Baghlan and Urozgan. This might also increase in areas that have been viewed as relatively secure. Increase in insecurity in the supply and transport route – Kabul - Bamyan Internal population displacement Disruption of education service provision (corruption in recruitment of unqualified teachers- long distance to schools in remote areas, lack of school buildings, lack of heating facilities during long 6 ms winter) Reduction in air transport servicing Bamyan/Daykundy by humanitarian and commercial operators Increase in mortality and morbidity Daykundy Stable Provincial Government structures; Improved security within Daykundy; Protracted drought continues and people will be looking for alternative livelihoods Base on indigenous knowledge winter may be shorter (warmer); and there might be more time for farming. Funding to NGOs will be decreased. Difficulties in air transportation for NGOs Scenario elements: Indicate probable developments, and events that might trigger these, for the next twelve months. Socio-economic, political, security, health, natural (chronic/sudden onset) elements should all be taken into account. Indicate sub-regional/cross border implications where applicable and remember the potential impact of external events. Bamyan: Breakdown of rule of law, increase in corruption, human rights violation Increase in insecurity in some parts of Kahmard, Saighan, Shibar and western parts of Yak Increase in insecurity in the supply and transport route – Kabul - Bamyan Closure of schools and increase in schools being used for other purposes Exodus of humanitarian actors and closure of programmes leading to high degrees of vulnerability, increase in mortality and morbidity rates Increase in food prices leading to malnutrition, fighting for survival (criminal activities) Budget cuts by humanitarian actors and donors Collapse of health services Daykundy: Humanitarian assistance will be decreased. Government control decreases particularly in bordering district to Urozgan. There will be no air transport Unreliable information on humanitarian, economical, social and political situation. Decrease of people trust to government. Decrease of people’s accessibility to public services and humanitarian services. Rationale for the Scenario/Early Warning Indicators: show for each element of the scenario why the HRT believes this element is possible, how (and by whom) developments are being monitored and which indicators are being used. Afghanistan: Regional 2013 CHAP preparatory workshops 4 Anticipated Caseload: Who will be affected by the developments and how? What impact will this have on caseload figures (increase/decrease) and what are the projected new figures in each category. 63,000 individuals (9,000 families) Worst Case Scenario: ie what is POSSIBLE, even if it may seem UNLIKELY, in the next twelve months given the current humanitarian context. Try and think of the worst case and its consequences as this is what will really allow us to assess preparedness. Sometimes the worst case does happen . . . Scenario elements: Indicate possible developments, and events that might trigger these, for the next twelve months. Socio-economic, political, security, health, natural (chronic/sudden onset) elements should all be taken into account. Indicate sub-regional/national implications where applicable and remember the potential impact of external events. Rationale for Scenario/Early Warning Indicators: show for each element of the scenario why the HRT believes this element is possible, how (and by whom) developments are being monitored and which indicators are being used. Anticipated Caseload: Who will be affected by the developments and how? What impact will this have on caseload figures (increase/decrease) and what are the projected new figures in each category. 126,000 Afghans (18,000 families in the worst case scenario) Humanitarian Consequences/ Impact of Scenario Capacity for provincial/ regional sectoral response Constraints for response Indicate only key areas in which scenario may have humanitarian implications, ie: on humanitarian access, on resources (financial/human) or on overall cluster/ sectors needs. Indicate whether there are plans, mechanisms, or resources are in place to address the consequences, or whether these need to be developed and/or there are major constraints. Please indicate major constraints Afghanistan: Regional 2013 CHAP preparatory workshops 5 Discussions and feedback on the 2013 strategic objective outline. Discussions to include relevance and appropriateness of the strategic objectives to the shared needs analysis and the appropriate thresholds that distinguish between a humanitarian and a development intervention. Reference can be made to the national level cluster recommendations / validation done on each cluster recommendation. Bamyan: Objectives 1, 2, and 3 are relevant and appropriate. However, objective 4 is more development oriented and it is not SMART. Objective 5 - the issue of resilience cannot stand alone but should be main streamed. Daykundy: - Objectives 2, 4 and 5 are more relevant, (Obj 2 for Daykundy is more relevant to Women and Children) - Objective 4: Increase of livelihood opportunity, income generation, improve/advancing agriculture and livestock for Daykundy. - Objective 5: The projects under SO5 have to enable the community to take the ownership after exit of the projects. General Observations/ Comments Humanitarian actors expressed the need for strong OCHA/Humanitarian presence in the area. On the other hand they expressed concern over closure on offices by some UN agencies and donors as this might result in suspension of air services to places like Daykundy. Afghanistan: Regional 2013 CHAP preparatory workshops 6