This version of the Victoria in Future 2008 Factsheet has
been prepared for use with screen reader software.
The PDF version also available at www.dpcd.vic.gov.au is
recommended for general access.
Melbourne 2030: a planning update
Melbourne @ 5 million
FACTSHEET
Victoria in Future 2008 – population projections
Melbourne’s population is growing and will be home to five million
people faster than previously anticipated.
Melbourne @ 5 million builds on the foundations of Melbourne 2030 to
create a refined settlement structure for the city.
Good planning will allow Melbourne to remain one of the world’s most
liveable cities as our population increases.
Projecting future population
Victoria in Future 2008 provides population projections for Victoria through to 2036
for Victoria’s regions and to 2026 for local government areas.
The projections provide information about total populations, ages and households.
The summary information will be followed by more detailed data in the coming
months.
Victoria in Future is prepared by the Department of Planning and Community
Development and draws on the results of the 2006 census as well as extensive
consultation with local governments to collect up to date local information.
It is also aligned with Australian Bureau of Statistics projections, which were released
in September 2008.
These are long term projections, which cannot anticipate shorter term economic
cycles and other factors, which may result in considerable variations to population
growth.
Victorian statewide projections
Victoria and Australia are currently experiencing record growth. In 2006–07 the
Victorian population grew by 83,000 people.
The growth in Victoria is being driven by:

high levels of natural increase (births)

comparatively low losses of population interstate

overseas migration.
Victoria’s population is projected to grow to 7.395 million by 2036, an increase of
1.267 million or 42 per cent from 2006.
Victoria’s population will also age over the next 30 years. This is consistent with
interstate and overseas trends.
The population aged over 65 is projected to more than double between 2006 and
2036, from 694,000 to 1.595 million. By 2036 the over 65s will represent 21.6 per
cent of Victoria’s population compared with 13.3 per cent in 2006.
Household growth is stronger than population growth owing to a continuing reduction
in household size, due in part to an ageing population and in part to social change.
Projections for Melbourne
Melbourne is experiencing record population growth. It grew by 273,000 between the
2001 and 2006 censuses.
Overseas migration is the main contributor to Melbourne’s growth, with almost a
quarter of migrants coming to Australia settling in Melbourne.
Melbourne’s share of Victoria’s population has been increasing reflecting a worldwide
trend to urbanisation.
Melbourne is projected to grow from 3.744 million in 2006 to 5.525 million in 2036, an
increase of 1.781 million.
The number of Melbourne households is projected to increase by 51 per cent
between 2006 and 2036, compared with a 41 per cent increase in population.
The Next Twenty Years
To accommodate this increase, 600,000 extra households will be required in
Melbourne over the next 20 years.
Between 2001 and 2006, the City of Melbourne was Australia’s third fastest growing
local government area, reversing a trend of losing population during most of the
twentieth century. It is projected that the inner city revival of Melbourne will continue,
with a projected increase of 120,000 in the City of Melbourne.
In recent years, the population of most established suburbs has increased and this is
projected to continue.
Fast population growth is projected to continue in Melbourne’s growth areas –
Wyndham, Melton, Hume, Whittlesea and Casey-Cardinia.
Projections for regional Victoria
Regional Victoria’s population is projected to grow by 477,000 between 2006 and
2036, compared to 320,000 between 1976 and 2006.
This growth will come mainly from migration from Melbourne (+330,000) and from
overseas (+120,000).
There are already sharp differences in population growth in different parts of regional
Victoria. Between 2001 and 2006, three local government areas – Greater Geelong,
Ballarat and Greater Bendigo – accounted for 44 per cent of regional Victoria’s
population growth.
Coastal areas, ‘tree-change’ locations around Melbourne, regional centres and some
‘lifestyle’ areas such as along the Murray River are also growing.
Dry land farming areas, particularly in western Victoria, continue to see population
decreases.
Around 40 per cent of regional Victoria’s growth is projected to occur in Greater
Geelong, Ballarat and Greater Bendigo during the 2006–2036 period.
Decreases in population are also projected in many parts of western Victoria. This is
mainly due to an ageing population and to migration to large regional centres.
While regional Victoria already has an older than average population, there are
significant geographical variations. Regional centres tend to have the youngest
populations. Remote and some coastal locations tend to have the oldest populations.
The implications of these growth projections on Melbourne and regional settlement
patterns are addressed in Melbourne 2030 – A Planning update – Melbourne @ 5
million and the forthcoming regional planning blueprint.