NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation R & D workshop
June 6, 2003
College Park, Maryland
Executive Summary
A NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation R & D workshop was held on June 6, 2003
in College Park, Maryland. The goals of this meeting were (a) to revise, add to and
generally complete the Science and Implementation Plan for NAME Modeling and Data
Assimilation Research and Development; (b) to establish a time line of specific activities
tied to specific individuals / groups. To achieve these objectives, deficiencies and
uncertainties of current regional and global models were identified and examined. The
path to improved warm season precipitation prediction was discussed. Suggestions and
recommendations to improve the “white paper” were made. The revised white paper is
attached as Appendix 3.
1. Objective and summary of the white paper
The objective of the white paper is to develop a strategy for accelerating progress on
the fundamental modeling issues pertaining to the NAME science goals of providing
improved understanding and prediction of
 Warm season convective processes in complex terrain;
 Intraseasonal variability of the monsoon;
 The response of warm season atmospheric circulation and precipitation
patterns to slowly varying, potentially predictable oceanic and continental
surface conditions;
 The life cycle of the North American monsoon system and its variability.
The guiding principals for the white paper are

To take maximum advantage of NAME enhanced observations, and to
provide model-based guidance to the evolving multi-tiered NAME observing
program;

To maintain a multi-scale approach in which local processes are embedded in,
and are fully coupled with larger-scale dynamics.
The meeting was organized to reflect the strategic approach given in the white paper:

Identify the uncertainties and deficiencies of the models;

Multi-scale model development;

Multi-tier synthesis and data assimilation;

Prediction and global scale linkages.
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2. Identify the uncertainties and deficiencies of the models
The NAMAP activity provides an opportunity to assess the performance of current
models, in particular

To identify and describe inter-model consistencies and differences;

To tentatively suggest physical explanations for differences;

To provide measurement targets for the NAME 2004 field campaign; and

To examine effects of core monsoon (Tier I) convection differences on the
larger-scale (Tier II) circulation.
There were 7 groups participating in NAMAP to simulate or forecast monsoon
development in 1990 June-September. While all models are able to produce rainfall over
the core monsoon regions, the details differ. The models produce very different rainfall
structure, rainfall maximum/minimum, seasonal cycle and diurnal cycle,
It was recommended that the NAME observations be used to address the following
large model uncertainties:

The diurnal cycle (precipitation, low-level circulation);

The timing of late-day convection and amount of nocturnal rainfall;

The structure and location of the Gulf of California low-level jet;

Surface quantities (T, LH, SH fluxes);
3. Multi-scale model development
In the monsoon region, there are many mesoscale convective systems. They move in
different directions with different speeds. The boundary layer depths over some regions
can exceed 3000 m. Observations point to the complexity and multi-scale nature of the
systems involved.
Most models have problems capturing the seasonal evolution of the monsoon and the
mesoscale features of rainfall and regional circulation anomalies. These are related to the
convection schemes and microphysics, which needs to be improved in the models.
One possibility is to improve parameterizations of convection in current models.
Another is to model the convective cloud systems explicitly. This will provide the basic
understanding of the dynamical system. However, the spatial scale for multi scale
models is about 1km. Therefore, more work and resources are needed to apply this
method to seasonal climate forecasts.
Recommendations:

Multi scale modeling should be tested for the NAME period;

Data assimilation using a mesoscale mode with 10-20 km resolution is
needed to provide large scale circulation for multi scale modeling;
2

Model development should focus on land/atmosphere interactions in the
presence of complex terrain and ocean-atmosphere interactions.
4. Multi-tier synthesis and data assimilation
During the NAME period, data impact studies will be performed with and without the
NAME data for CDAS (T62 resolution), GDAS (T256 resolution) and EDAS by the
NCEP. These products provide a benchmark for other assimilation and model forecasts.
The data assimilation products depend on the model and the data assimilation scheme
used. For example: the 12-36h precipitation forecasts during the data assimilation cycle
for models with different convective schemes show very different rainfall amounts and
patterns.
Recommendations:

Various groups (with different models) are encouraged to perform data
assimilation using the NAME data. The model output should be evaluated
based on key features of the warm season precipitation regime (diurnal
cycle, MCS’s, moisture surges and boundary layer depths);

This is a good opportunity to test new assimilation methods such as the
ensemble Kalman filtering method.
5. Prediction and global scale linkages
Outside the Tier I region, the boundary and surface forcing become very important.
Both sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the Tropical Pacific and in the North
Pacific have influences on the development of monsoon. In addition to the SSTAs,
seasonal forecast skill increases when accurate soil moisture is provided at the initial
time.
Key elements of the monsoon system (including tropical cyclones) are modulated by
intraseasonal oscillations (such as the Madden Julian Oscillation). The inability for
models to capture the intraseasonal oscillations has a negative impact on seasonal
precipitation forecasts.
Recommendations:

Realistic soil moisture and temperature information is needed to test the
impact of soil conditions on seasonal forecasts;

Improve simulations of tropical intraseasonal oscillations and their impact
on the monsoon.
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6. Other issues and follow-ups
1) The NAME modeling and data assimilation groups should work closely with other
national and international programs like CEOP, PILPS and the subseasonal prediction
program organized by GSFC.
2) Investigators interested in NAME modeling should respond to the OGP/PACS/GAPP
call for proposals for the coming summer. This will link the specific issues in the NAME
modeling strategic plan to specific groups and activities;
3) Establish performance measures of the NAME modeling activity;
4) Better communication between modeling groups and observational groups;
5) The “white paper” will be inserted in the NAME Science and Implementation Plan,
but it should continue to be revised;
6) The NAME modeling and data assimilation activities should be reviewed during the
SWG5 meeting in Puerto Vallarta, MX.
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Appendix 1: NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation Research and Development
meeting participant list
Participant List
Jorge Amador Astua
Center for Geophysical Research
University of Costa Rica
2060 San Jose,COSTA RICA
Tel: (506) 207-5096 or (506) 207-5320
Fax: (506) 234-2703
E-mail: jamador@cariari.ucr.ac.cr
Miguel Cortez-Vzquez
Seasonal Forecast Project
National Meteorological Service
Av. Observatorio 192,Col. Observatorio
Mxico D. F. 11860
MEXICO
Tel: (52) 5626-8660
Fax: (52) 5626-8695
E-mail: mcortez@smnmail.can.gob.mx
Phil Arkin
ESSIC, University of Maryland
College Park, Md 20742
Email: parkin@essic.umd.edu
Paul A.Dirmeyer
COLA,
4041 Powder Mill Rd.
Calverton, Md, 20705
Tel: 301-595-7000
Email: dirmeyer@cola.iges.org
Kristi Arsenault
Goddard Space Flight Center,
NASA, Greenbelt Md
Email : kristi@hsb.gsfc.nasa.gov
C. B. Emmanuel
Associate Director
Joint Office for Science Support
University Corporation for Atmospheric
Research
P.O. Box 3000 - FL4, Rm. 1412
Boulder, CO 80307-3000
Tel: (1) 303-497-8693
Fax: (1) 303-497-8158
E-mail: cbe@ucar.edu
Julio Bacmeister
DAO
Goddard Space Flight Center
NASA,Greenbelt Md
Email:bacmj@janus.gsfc.nasa.gov
E. Hugo Berbery
ESSIC
University of Maryland
College Park, Md 20742
Email Berbery@atmos.umd.edu
Luis Farfan
Cicese
Ensenada, Mexico
Email farfan@cicese.mx
Michael Bosilovich
Goddard Space Flight Center
NASA, Greenbelt Md
Email : mbosilovich@dao.gsfc.nasa.gov
David J. Gochis
RAP
National Center for Atmospheric Research
PO Box 3000-FL2,Boulder, CO
80307-3000
Tel: (1) 303-497-2809
E-mail: gochis@rap.ucar.edu
Marco Carrera
Climate Prediction Center
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md
Email: Marco.Carrera@noaa.gov
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Zhichang Guo
COLA
4041 Powder Mill Rd.
Calverton, Md, 20705
Tel: 301-595-7000
Email: guo@cola.iges.org
Thomas J. Jackson
USDA ARS Hydrology and Remote Sensing
Lab,104 Bldg. 007 BARC-West
Beltsville, MD 20705
(301) 504-8511
Fax (301) 504-8931
tjackson@hydrolab.arsusda.gov
Andrea N. Hahmann
Institute of Atmospheric Physics
PAS Bldg. 81,University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
Tel: (1) 520-621-6619
Fax: (1) 520-621-6833
E-mail: hahmann@atmo.arizona.edu
Donald Johnson
Department of Meteorology
University of Wisconsin
Madison, Wisconsin, 53706
Email:dmj@ssec.wisc.edu
Mark Helfand
DAO
Goddard Space Flight Center
NASA,Greenbelt Md
Email: mhelfand@dao.gsfc.nasa.gov
Richard Johnson
Department of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523
USA
Tel: 970-491-8321
E-mail: Johnson@atmos.colostate.edu
Wayne Higgins
Climate Prediction Center
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md
Tel: 301-763-8000 Ext 7547
Email: Wayne.Higgins@noaa.gov
Henry Juang
EMC
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md
Tel: 301-763-8000
Email: Henry.Juang@noaa.gov
Ming Ji
OGP/NOAA
1100 Wayne Ave.
Silver Spring, Md 20910
Tel: 301-427-2089
Email: Ming.Ji@noaa.gov
Masao Kanamitsu
Scripps Institution of Oceanography,
UCSD, La Jolla, Ca
Tel: 619-534-2099
Email : mkanamitsu@ucsd.edu
Charles Jones
Institute for Computational Earth System
Science (ICESS)
University of California
Santa Barbara, CA 93106-3060
E-mail: cjones@icess.ucsb.edu
H. K. Kim
Climate Prediction Center
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md
Tel: 301-763-8000 Ext 7515
Email : Hyun-Kyung.Kim@noaa.gov
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Dennis P. Lettenmaier
Dept. of Civil and Environmental
Engineering
University of Washington
164 Wilcox Hall
P.O. Box 352700
Seattle, WA 98195, USA
Tel: (1) 206-543-2532
Fax: (1) 206-685-3836
E-mail: dennisl@u.washington.edu
S. Moorthi
EMC
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd., Camp Springs, Md 20746
tel: 301-763-8000
Email: Shrinivas.Moorthi@noaa.gov
Hau L. Pan
EMC, NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md
Tel: 301-763-8000
Email: Haulu.Pan@noaa.gov
Jim Mather
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Richland, WA 99352
(509) 375-4533
(509) 372-6168 (fax)
Email: Jim.Mather@pnl.gov
Michael Patterson
OGP/NOAA
1100 Wayne Ave. Silver Spring, Md 20910
Tel: 301-427-2089
Fax: 301-427-2073
Email Michael.Patterson@noaa.gov
Kenneth Mitchell
EMC
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md
Tel: 301-763-8000
Email: Kenneth.Mitchell@noaa.gov
Philip Pegion
DAO,Goddard Space Flight Center
NASA, Greenbelt Md
Email: pegion@janus.gsfc.nasa.gov
Kingtse Mo
Climate Prediction Center
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md
Tel: 301-763-8000 Ext 7540
Email : Kingtse.Mo@noaa.gov
Jae Schemm
Climate Prediction Center
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md
Tel: 301-763-8000 Ext 7565
Email : Jae.Schemm@noaa.gov
Siegfried Schubert
DAO
Goddard Space Flight Center
NASA, Greenbelt Md
Email: schubert@dao.gsfc.nasa.gov
Mitchell W. Moncrieff
Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology
National Center for Atmospheric Research
P.O. Box 3000-FL3
Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA
Tel: (1) 303-497-8960
Fax: (1) 303-497-8181
E-mail: moncrief@ucar.edu
Wei Shi
Climate Prediction Center
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md
Tel: 301-763-8000 Ext 7545
Email Wei.Shi@noaa.gov
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Yucheng Song
Climate Prediction Center
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd., Camp Springs, Md
20746
tel: 301-763-8000
Email: Yucheng.Song@noaa.gov
Chidong Zhang
Meteorology & Physical Oceanography
Div.
University of Miami, RSMAS,
4600 Rickenbacker Causeway
Miami, Fl. 33149
Tel 305-361-4042
Email: czhang@rsmas.miami.edu
Dusanka Zupanski
Dave Stensrud
Leader, Models and Assimilation Team
NOAA/National Severe Storm
Laboratory
1313 Halley Circle,Norman, OK 73069
USA
Tel: (1) 405-366-0418
Fax: (1) 405-366-0472
E-mail: david.stensrud@nssl.noaa.gov
Jiaya Zhou
NOAA/NWS/Climate Services
1325 East West Hwy, Silver Spring, Md
20910
Email: Jiaya.Zhou@noaa.gov
Dusanka Zupanski
Colorado State University-CIRA
Ft. Collins, CO 80526
USA
Tel: (1) 970-491-8642
Fax:
E-mail: zupanski@cira.colostate.edu
Max Suarez
DAO
Goddard Space Flight Center
NASA, Greenbelt Md
Email: Max.J.Suarez@nasa.gov
Rongqian Yang
EMC
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md
Tel: 301-763-8000
Email: Rongqian.Yang@noaa.gov
Song Yang
Climate Prediction Center
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md
Tel: 301-763-8000
Email: Song.Yang@noaa.gov
Evgeney Yarosh
Climate Prediction Center
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md
Tel: 301-763-8000 Ext 7575
Email: Evgeney.Yarosh@noaa.gov
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Appendix 2:
Agenda
NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation Research and Development
June 6, 2003
University of Maryland Inn and Conference Center
Purpose: To revise, add to and generally complete the Science and
Implementation Plan for NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation Research
and Development.
Friday
6 June 2003
8:00 am
8:05 am
8:35 am
9:05 am
9:35 am
Opening Remarks and Expected Outcome (Mo)
NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation R&D (Schubert)
The North American Monsoon Assessment Project (NAMAP):
What have we learned? (Kim)
Summary of NAME 2004: Status and Plans (Higgins)
Summary of the Ensenada meeting on the oceanographic
component of NAME (Farfan)
9:45 am
Break
10:00 - 11:30 am Working session on Phase 1: Model Development
(Moncrieff)
10:00
10:15
10:30
10:45
am
am
am
am
Global modeling perspective (Bacmeister)
Regional model perspective (Mitchell)
Multi scale modeling perspective (Moncrieff)
Discussion
11:30 am
Lunch
12:30-2:00 pm
12:30 pm
12:45 pm
1:00 pm
1:15 pm
2:00 pm
2:20 pm
Working session on Phase 2: Data Assimilation and
Analysis (Stensrud)
Opening remarks (Stensrud)
Global and regional data assimilation at the NCEP
during NAME (Mo)
Challenging scientific issues for NAME in the context of
data assimilation (Zupanski)
Discussion
Break
Summary of NAME Hydrometeorology Working Group plans (Gochis)
2:30-4:00 pm Working session on Phase 3: Predictability and Forecasts
(Schemm)
2:30 pm
2:45 pm
3:00 pm
Seasonal climate predictability over NAME region (Schemm)
Prediction and predictability on intraseasonal time
scales (Schubert)
Statistical Forecast of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (Jones)
3:15 pm
Discussion
4:00 pm
Conclusions / Assignments
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Appendix 3. The NAME “White paper” entitled “NAME Modeling and Data
Assimilation: A Strategic Overview” is attached as a separate file
“NAME_modeling.doc
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