Unexpected, unpredictable, irregular and inevitable
These words could characterise the impact of climate change. Summer 2014 shows again
how difficult it is to be really prepared for major weather related happenings, both as an
employee or politician in any authority position and as a stakeholder (or victim).
Climate change is flooding as well as drought, it is thunderstorms in ’wrong’ seasons as well
as large-scale forest fires, it is irregular river water levels as well as cold winters. Patterns are
difficult to foresee, which makes that preparation of any type of extreme weather mainly can
be done on a general level. One cannot predict where what will occur and cannot have the
appropriate technical support available at the right place. Common is that authorities are
forced to act immediately. Common is that it is expected that they act properly, efficiently and
coordinated. Often the political system is blamed for insufficient handling,
Some questions
Is any planning of an unpredictable impact possible?
Who is responsible to solve a crisis – difference in short term and on a longer term?
Who decides what? Is there an overall handling plan? Is there space for improvisation?
How can first aid actions and political responsibility go together?
What is an acceptable risk level? What are priorities and who decides?
How can a citizen become involved in preparation processes and planning?
Will changes in insurance conditions have impact on decisions on housing or other economic
activity?
More info
Flooding: http://floodlist.com/europe
Drought: http://www.geo.uio.no/edc/
Forest fire: http://www.fire.uni-freiburg.de/fwf/fwf.htm (Ge); http://forest.jrc.ec.europa.eu/effis/
Proposal for CIA work packages

WP 1 case study historical larger climate impact
What was predicted by whom, any warnings, what was planned and prepared, what
happened, what was the input from authorities and politicians in the crisis relieve, who was
responsible for coordination, what were the mistakes in action, how did the stakeholders/
victims act, what was the public opinion of what should have been done to avoid – at the time
of crisis, and after, what were the final costs, who paid for the damages, split tax money/
insurance, who did the coordination after the crisis/disaster, who had contact with
stakeholders after, how long did any support structure exist, what measures were taken to
avoid future similar impact, lessons learnt or business as usual?
Possible cases with examples from rural as well as from urban areas:
2003 extreme water levels in lake Vänern, flooding, risk for dam rupture
2006 extreme low river water levels Rhine1
2007 drought NL and UK
2012 extreme flooding in South Germany
2012 (?) extreme rainfall Copenhagen
1
http://www.geo.uio.no/edc/downloads/2006_low_flow_in_german_federal_water_ways_july2006.pdf
2014 Jan/Feb flooding South-West England
2014 extreme flooding Sawa river system, several Balcan countries
2014 14000 hectares forest fire, Sweden
2014 extreme thunderstorms/rainfall Malmö, Kvänum or Kristinehamn, Sweden

WP 2 case study cross authority cooperation and policy priorities
To be described

WP 3 Risk analysis Climate impact
Environment impact - Pollution of drinking water, overflow sewerage treatment plants,
inundation of fuel pump stations, of farms manure deposits and dunghills, of waste deposits.
Rapid surface run-off
Society impact - suicide rates, repercussions for lake view properties, lost of crops and
livelihoods (famine), large-scale evacuation, damaged infrastructure, floating land mines
Economic impact - closure of industry, bankruptcy, blooming water defense industry,
damaged infrastructure

WP 4 Climate change preparedness scheme
Aims to develop ‘Climate Change Adaptation Plans’ to the benefit of the communities
involved. Survey of climate change preparedness, resiliance or willingness to adapt, specific
targeted at municipalities and stakeholders, identifying needs and desired interventions.
Support in adequate political decision-making processes at all authority levels.

WP 5 Models for public communication, interactive planning and political
decision making
Examples
Calculation, follow-up and simulation model for land-slide risks in Göta Älv river, Sweden
Decision model for drinking water availability (Schleswig Holstein, Germany; Provincie
Brabant, the Netherlands)
Impact model in downstream areas due to high water protection in upstream urban areas,
Köln and downstream Rhine rural area, Germany
Best of worst-case model for lake Vänern flooding, calculation of prevention versus risks
Potential additional partners
The FloodList Team Richard Davies Co-founder, editor and writer. UK, now mostly based in
Germany, FloodList’s Social Media, and other websites and companies. Jana Behrend Cofounder, writer and translator. understanding issues around flooding in a range of other, nonEnglish speaking countries. Ed Hill freelance journalist South Africa with a particular focus on
flood resilience and protection issues.
Red Cross Red Crescent climate centre (based in the Netherlands)
In Budapest: Lasse Norgaard, communication manager, IFRC Europe zone
Email: lars.norgaard@ifrc.org Mobile: +36 709 53 77 04
In Geneva: Benoit Matsha-Carpentier, senior communications officer, IFRC
Email: benoit.carpentier@ifrc.org Mobile: +41 79 213 24 13
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
EurOcean – The European Centre for Information on Marine Sciences and Technology –
introduces RISC-KIT project, aimed at increasing coastal resilience to flooding caused by
extreme weather events. RISC-KIT project is coordinated by Deltares.
Environment Agency UK
The Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH) is the UK’s Centre of Excellence for integrated
research in the land and freshwater ecosystems and their interaction with the atmosphere.
CEH is part of the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), employs more than 450
people at four major sites in England, Scotland and Wales.
SMHI Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping (Chantal Donnelly
member EDC)
Drought European Drought Centre http://www.geo.uio.no/edc/
European coordinators Henny van lanen, Hydrology and quantitative water management
group, Wageningen University 0031 317 482418 Henny.vanLanen@wur.nl
And Lena Tallaksen, Department of Geo Sciences, University of Oslo, PO Box 1047,
Blindern 0316 Oslo, NORWAY, Tel: +47 22 85 72 14, Email: lena.tallaksen@geo.uio.no
River water levels
Jörg Uwe BELZ, Silke RADEMACHER, Walter RÄTZ
Bundesanstalt fuer Gewaesserkunde/Federal Institute of Hydrology
Department M1 - Hydrometry and Hydrological Survey
Am Mainzer Tor 1, 56068 Koblenz Deutschland
Tel. ++49 (0)261 1306 0
e-mail belz@bafg.de, rademacher@bafg.de, raetz@bafg.de
Example flooding England
The Environment Agency is responsible for managing the risk of flooding from main rivers, reservoirs,
estuaries and the sea. Lead local flood authorities are responsible for managing the risk of flooding
from surface water, groundwater and ordinary watercourses and lead on community recovery,
including making sandbags available to those that need them. More detail about who is responsible
for managing flood risks..
Under the Flood and Water Management Act 2010 all risk management authorities mentioned above
have a duty to co-operate with each other and to share data. A key theme of the Pitt Review was for
flood risk management authorities to work in partnership to deliver flood risk management better to the
benefit of their communities.
http://apps.environment-agency.gov.uk/flood/31618.aspx
A cyclist crosses a bridge where locals have put up a sign "Stop the Flooding - Dredge the Rivers" on
the River Parrett, at Barrow Mump, in Somerset, on February 2, 2014. Some residents blame the
flooding on government budget cuts and environmental bureaucracy. Others point to climate change.
Even plump, endangered water voles are the target of ire. (AP Photo/Alastair Grant) #
http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2014/02/flooding-in-southwest-england/100677/
Floods that disrupted rail services in south-west England have "devastated" businesses and
tourism in the region, MPs have been told. Cornwall's tourism industry has lost millions of pounds,
according to the local enterprise partnership. Tudor Evans, the leader of Plymouth City Council, said
there was also a massive cost to local businesses… http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-26342819
In the past the Company has not been properly funded to deal with external flooding, although the
more serious cases were often included for improvements in the capital investment programme.
Ofwat’s attention has been drawn to issues regarding external flooding and some solutions are now
being funded. However, it is probable that internal flooding will generally still have a higher priority.
https://www.southwestwater.co.uk/index.cfm?articleid=1756
Flooding: How you can help
Last updated: 17 Feb 2014
Farmers, particularly those in the South West and South
East, are facing unprecedented flooding which has seen
thousands of acres of land underwater. Parts of Somerset
have been submerged for weeks.
Here's how you can help and what we're doing.
http://www.nfuonline.com/news/latest-news/flooding-how-you-can-help/
New scientific review investigates potential influences on recent UK winter floods.
Press release by the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, UK – 27 August 2014
A comprehensive review of all potential factors behind the 2013/2014 UK winter floods is published
today in the journal Nature Climate Change. (…)
http://floodlist.com/europe/united-kingdom/factors-behind-recent-winter-floods-uk
From figures and estimates currently available, the floods and storms that hit the United Kingdom
during late 2013 and the first two months of 2014 are likely to cost the UK insurance, small business
and transport sectors a combined total of at least £2.5 billion. Furthermore, Oliver Dudok Van Heel,
director of Aldersgate Group, suggested in the Guardian that the recent floods could cost the UK
economy as a whole as much as £14 billion. http://floodlist.com/insurance/uk/cost-of-2013-2014-floods