Active faults, paleoseismology and historical fault rupture in northern Wairarapa, North Island, New Zealand E.R. Schermer (Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA 98225 USA); R. Van Dissen and K.R. Berryman (Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences, Lower Hutt, New Zealand), H.M. Kelsey, S. M. Cashman, (Dept. Of Geology, Humboldt State University, Arcata, CA 95521 USA) Abstract Active faulting in the upper plate of the Hikurangi subduction zone, North Island, New Zealand, represents a significant seismic hazard that is not yet well understood. In northern Wairarapa, the geometry and kinematics of active faults, and the Quaternary and historical surface-rupture record, have not previously been studied in detail. We present the results of mapping and paleoseismicity studies on faults in the northern Wairarapa region to document the characteristics of active faults and the timing of earthquakes. We focus on evidence for surface rupture in the 1855 Wairarapa (Mw8.2) and 1934 Pahiatua (Mw7.4) earthquakes, two of New Zealand’s largest historical earthquakes. The Dreyers Rock, Alfredton, Saunders Road, Waitawhiti, and Waipukaka Faults form a northeast-trending, east-stepping array of faults. Detailed mapping of offset geomorphic features shows the rupture lengths vary from c. 7 to 20 km and single-event displacements range from 3 to 7 m, suggesting the faults are capable of generating M>7 earthquakes. Trenching results show that two earthquakes have occurred on the Alfredton Fault since c.2900 cal BP. The most recent event probably occurred during the 1855 Wairarapa earthquake as slip propagated northward from the Wairarapa Fault and across a 6 km wide step. Waipukaka Fault trenches show that at least three surface-rupturing earthquakes have occurred since 8290-7880 cal BP. Analysis of stratigraphic and historical evidence suggests the most recent rupture occurred during the 1934 Pahiatua earthquake. 1 Estimates of slip rates provided by these data suggest that a larger component of strike slip than previously suspected is occurring within the upper plate and that the faults accommodate a significant proportion of the dextral component of oblique subduction. Assessment of seismic hazard is difficult because the known fault scarp lengths appear too short to have accommodated the estimated single-event displacements. Faults in the region are highly segmented, disconnected, and probably structurally immature, which implies that apparent geometric discontinuities at the surface may not be significant barriers to rupture propagation at depth and that the surface rupture record significantly under-represents the seismic slip on faults in the region. Keywords: active faulting, paleoseismology, Hikurangi margin, oblique subduction, seismic hazard INTRODUCTION In the North Island of New Zealand, oblique subduction of the Pacific plate beneath the Australian plate is in part accommodated by upper-plate strike-slip and reverse faulting that represents a significant seismic hazard, as indicated by seismologic and geodetic data (Walcott 1978; 1987; Darby & Meertens 1995; Webb & Anderson 1998), fault slip rates (Van Dissen & Berryman 1996; Barnes & Mercier de Lépinay 1997; Beanland 1995; Beanland & Haines 1998) and a series of large (M>6.5) historical earthquakes (Webb & Anderson 1998) (Fig. 1). These data suggest an increase in coupling of the upper and lower plates from north to south, and an accompanying decrease in the importance of megathrust events on the subduction interface versus upper plate fault events (Walcott 1987; Beanland 1995; Reyners 1998; Darby & Beavan 2001). As yet, the slip rates and deformation pattern are poorly constrained except in the southernmost part of the North Island. Understanding both the nature of the plate interaction and the seismic hazard requires accurate data on the pattern of faulting, slip rates, and earthquake history. Recent progress in understanding the seismology and surface deformation in historical 2 earthquakes on the North Island (Webb & Anderson 1998; McGinty et al. 2002; Doser & Webb 2003) can be augmented by paleoseismic investigations of the causative faults, especially because no large surface-rupture earthquakes have occurred in the last several decades. Furthermore, in northern Wairarapa (Fig. 1), limited mapping and analysis of active faults and relatively late settlement and clearing of the area have hampered understanding of active faulting and the relationship of fault scarps to historical events. We present field and paleoseismologic evidence from northern Wairarapa that documents the location, geometry, and kinematics of major active faults. We assess the likelihood of historical surface rupture on the faults and describe the rupture parameters of the major surfacerupture earthquakes in the region. Questions we address include: how much upper plate strain is represented by the faults in this region; what are the surface-rupture characteristics of a newly developing zone of faults; and are established techniques to estimate magnitude from surface fault geometry (e.g., Wells & Coppersmith 1994) valid in this tectonic setting. Quantification of the geometry, kinematics, and slip rates of active faults will also lead to better understanding of active strain partitioning in the Australian plate (e.g., Cashman et al. 1992; Beanland & Haines 1998), and will better constrain studies of the possible triggering relationships among forearc earthquakes (e.g., Downes & McGinty 2001, McGinty et al. 2002). Our study area includes the rupture zones of two of New Zealand’s largest earthquakes, the 1855 Wairarapa (Mw 8.2) and 1934 Pahiatua (Ms 7.6) earthquakes. Although surface faulting was well documented for the 1855 earthquake (Grapes & Wellman 1988), the northern end of the rupture was not established. The magnitude and relatively shallow depth (12±5 km, Doser & Webb 2003) of the 1934 earthquake (Table 1) suggests a high likelihood of surface rupture, but none was reported at the time. We focused our study of active faults in the area within the highest (MM9) isoseismal of the 1934 earthquake (Downes et al. 1999) (Fig. 2). This area also lies within the inner isoseismals of several other earthquakes (including 1904, 1931, and 1942; Downes 1995), so the possibility for multiple historical ruptures can be considered. Lensen (1969), Berryman & Cowan (1993) and Beanland (1995) documented active fault scarps in this 3 area, but little detailed work had been done and the age of recent ruptures on the faults were unknown. We conducted an airphoto survey and compiled a map of new and existing observations (e.g., Lensen 1969; Neef 1974, 1984; 1992; 1997a,b; Beanland 1995; Kelsey et al. 1995) to identify known and likely active faults (Fig. 2). Details of the location and geomorphology of faults in the area can be found in Schermer et al. (1998). We examined the earliest airphotos available, taken in 1943 and 1944, to assess fault scarps formed prior to that time (Fig. 3). Field work examined several of the more prominent fault scarps, with geomorphic and structural mapping designed to quantify the length, type of faulting, and offset characteristics, and to assess the relative recency of faulting by a general examination of scarp morphology and continuity. Two faults, the Alfredton Fault and the Waipukaka Fault (Figs. 2, 3), were identified as having extremely fresh scarps and these were chosen for detailed mapping, trenching and 14C dating. Trenches were logged with a 1 m2 grid and lithologic units, soil properties, and faults were identified. We used European settlement data and the field notes of geologist M. Ongley to constrain dates more recent than obtainable by radiocarbon (14C) dating. Estimates of rupture lengths, single-event slip, and slip rate of the faults are used to discuss the implications for seismic hazard assessment in New Zealand and active tectonics of the Hikurangi margin. Geological and geodynamic setting of the North Island The Hikurangi margin is the southern part of the Tonga-Kermadec subduction zone, where the Pacific plate is being subducted beneath the Australian plate (Fig. 1). The area presently exposed in the forearc region of the North Island and south of the present-day extent of the volcanic arc has evolved throughout the Cenozoic from predominantly subsidence and tectonic quiescence during the Miocene to uplift and deformation in Quaternary time. Numerous studies have focused on the stratigraphic and structural evolution of the margin during the Tertiary, and have shown that the area comprised a broad submarine forearc basin with an accretionary prism to the east from early Miocene onward (e.g. Lewis 1980; Pettinga 1982; (Rait et al. 1991; Kelsey 4 et al. 1995; Delteil et al. 1996; Neef 1997a, 1997b). Emergence of the forearc did not occur until latest Neogene or Quaternary (Lewis 1980; Pettinga 1982). From north the south along the Hikurangi margin, the style and rate of deformation changes, but in much of the onshore area east and south of the volcanic arc there is a combination of reverse faulting and dextral strike-slip faulting, a region termed the North Island Dextral Fault Belt (NIDFB; Fig 1, Walcott 1987; (Cashman et al. 1992; Beanland 1995). Geologically determined dextral slip rate on the main faults in the North Island Dextral Fault Belt increases from c.2 mm/yr in the north to c.21 mm/yr in the south (Fig 1, Beanland 1995; Van Dissen & Berryman 1996, Barnes et al. 1998). In much of the NIDFB, the slip rate on faults is not well constrained, particularly in the study area (Fig. 2), where the integrated dextral slip rate is estimated at c.8 mm/yr (Beanland 1995). Dextral faulting began in the southern Hikurangi margin within the last c.0.5 m.y., evolving from an earlier, predominantly reverse faulting environment (Beanland 1995; Kelsey et al. 1995; Beanland et al. 1998). Although the late Neogene reverse faulting extended from the Wellington Fault to the present east coast, many of the reverse faults are now inactive, and the strike-slip faults in general reactivated only some of the older structures (Kelsey et al. 1995). Major faults of the North Island Dextral Fault Belt comprise two main active dextral fault zones, the Wellington-Mohaka-Ruahine Fault system in the west, and the Wairarapa-Alfredton-Makuri-Poukawa Fault system in the east (Fig. 1). The eastern part of the belt is characterised by a wide zone of discontinuous fault traces, indicative of a young fault system whose traces have not yet integrated into a throughgoing major fault. The distributed faulting makes it difficult to determine the seismic hazard without full characterization of the fault system.. Historical earthquakes The southern North Island has been the site of several major historical earthquakes, including three of the four largest earthquakes in the recorded history of New Zealand (Fig. 1, Table 1). Throughout this work "historical" events are considered as occurring after 1840, the 5 time of earliest European settlement of the North Island. Data on surface rupture for the 1855 Wairarapa (Mw 8.2) and 1931 Hawke’s Bay (Ms 7.8) earthquakes have been compiled (Henderson 1933; Grapes & Wellman 1988; Hull 1990), but before this study there was no evidence for surface faulting associated with other earthquakes, including the 1934 Pahiatua (Ms 7.6) earthquake, New Zealand's fourth-largest historical earthquake. Study immediately following the 1942 (Ms 7.2,5.3,7.0) earthquake series suggested a short rupture (Ongley 1943b), which has been reinterpreted as a landslide related to strong ground shaking (Lensen 1969; Schermer et al. 1998; Downes et al. 2001). In this paper we present evidence for surface rupture in the 1934 earthquake and document the northern extent of the 1855 earthquake. GEOMORPHOLOGY, STRUCTURAL GEOLOGY, AND PALEOSEISMOLOGY OF THE MAJOR FAULT ZONES The Wairarapa fault branches northward to the Pa Valley-Makuri fault zone in the west, and the Dreyers Rock Fault-Alfredton Fault in the east (Figs. 1, 2). The most prominent fault scarps occur on the eastern branch, and the Alfredton Fault appears to be part of a right-stepping en echelon fault zone that includes the Saunders Road Fault and the Waipukaka fault. Other prominent faults in the region include the Waitawhiti Fault, the East Puketoi Faults, and the Weber Fault (Fig. 2). The major fault zones will be described from southwest to northeast. General Geomorphology Scarps in the study area are underlain by bedrock siltstone, sandstone, or mudstone overlain by a thin (<0.5 m) soil. Stream terraces are not well developed, and few of the mapped fault traces cross major terraces. The abundance of landslides recognised from airphoto surveys suggests rapid change of hillslope morphology, such that nearly all preserved fault scarps probably are postglacial (<c.14 ka; Pillans et al. 1993) even where the age of the surface is not known precisely. Hillslope erosion has likely increased significantly following deforestation during settlement of the area, and the preservation of scarps is in part related to the age, method, and intensity of clearing and cultivation. As a qualitative estimate of relative age of faulting, we 6 divide the scarps into classes similar to those used by Lensen (1969), recognising that our age estimates could be in error by at least a factor of 2-3 (e.g., scarps interpreted to be <10,000 years old are probably not much more than 20,000 years old if they cut post-glacial features such as stream terraces). The faults shown as bold, unbroken lines (Figs. 2, 4, 8) typically have wellpreserved scarps with moderately steep faces (>25-30°) and continuity across steep, landslideprone slopes (scarps we term “fresh”, e.g., Fig. 3), but locally they have subdued scarps and somewhat more erosion by streams and landslides. We interpret these scarps to have been active within the last c.1000-10,000 yr; these would fall into Lensen's Class I (repeated movement in the last 500,000 yr or single movement in the last 5000 yr). The faults shown as dashed lines are highly eroded or appear as traces on elevated or dissected Quaternary surfaces; these would fall into Lensen's Class II (single movement in last 5000-50,000 yr and/or repeated movement in 50,000-500,000 yr). Alfredton and Dreyers Rock fault zones Geology and geomorphology Deformation in the Alfredton region (Figs. 2, 4) changed from reverse faulting to dextral strike-slip faulting before late Pleistocene time (Kelsey et al. 1995). The Alfredton and Pa Valley Faults are in part reactivated structures and in part new traces that have stepped east or west from the older trace. Faults are interpreted to be subvertical based on straight traces across topography; dips at the surface are both southeast and northwest (Kelsey et al. 1995). Lamarche et al. (1995) inferred from seismic reflection profiles near Ihuraua (Fig. 4) that the Alfredton Fault is composed of several strands that converge at depth. At the southern end of the Alfredton Fault the Dreyers Rock Fault zone connects the Alfredton Fault with the Wairarapa Fault (Fig. 2), and consists of several short north-, east- and northeast-striking faults with dextral-normal slip (Kelsey et al. 1995). Based on bedrock mapping, Kelsey et al., (1995) showed that the north end of the Alfredton Fault merges westward with the Pa Valley Fault, and from there northward with the Makuri Fault near Makuri (Figs. 2, 4). However, as shown in Kelsey et al. (1995, their 7 Figure 6) and in Figures 2 and 4, the Holocene trace of the fault may instead step northeast to connect with the Saunders Road Fault. Cumulative Quaternary strike slip on Pa Valley and Alfredton Faults is less than a few hundred metres (Kelsey et al. 1995). Lensen (1969) mapped several locations along the southern Alfredton Fault where Quaternary features are offset dextrally (Fig. 4), however none of these features are of known age. Lensen (1969) noted that postglacial features are offset an average of 40 m and that historical displacement was likely along part of the fault because the scarps are so fresh. Measurements of offset geomorphic features compiled from Lensen (1969), Beanland (1995), and this study are shown in Figure 5A. The data cluster at offset values of c. 4-7 m, 8-12 m, and 18-19 m, suggesting a single-event displacement of 4-7 m. The juxtaposition of different basement units suggests significant longterm cumulative vertical displacement (c.1 km, Kelsey et al. 1995). Some of this vertical displacement comes from reverse slip of an earlier phase of faulting and the remainder comes from the vertical component of oblique slip from the later, contemporary phase of faulting (Kelsey et al. 1995). From Ihuraua northward, the Alfredton Fault strikes c.040° and is composed of two late Quaternary traces in the south and one in the north (Figs. 3A, 4). In several locations along its length the Alfredton Fault consists of two or more subparallel faults; locally these features form graben, in other places the upthrown side changes along strike of one or both faults (Figs. 3A, 3B, 4). The western strand typically has a larger dextral offset than the eastern strands. The eastern strands are subparallel to bedding and may represent flexural slip faults related to folding in the footwall of the main Alfredton Fault (Fig. 3A). Based on similar morphology and continuity of structure, we estimate the length of surface rupture in the most recent earthquake. Scarps in the Dreyers Rock Fault zone appear similar to those in Alfredton Fault zone, making the total length of relatively continuous distinct scarps 1720 km (Figs. 2, 4). The Dreyers Rock Fault Zone consists of c.4 km of fresh normal and dextralnormal fault scarps (Kelsey et al. 1995). Dextral fault scarps in the c.4 km long segment of the Alfredton fault from Ihuraua northward to Bartons Line (Figs. 3A, 4) have face angles typically 8 >40° and locally subvertical. There is a segment c.1 km long to the northeast of Barton’s line where the scarp is obscured, and another c.8 km of relatively fresh scarp farther to the northeast that cuts stream terraces of probable Holocene age (c.7 ka, McCallion 1996) (Fig. 3B). Within this segment the fault bends westward and accommodates an oblique reverse component in the restraining bend (McCallion 1996). North of the Tiraumea River (Figs. 2, 4), the scarp becomes increasingly difficult to identify although the fault can be recognised by the juxtaposition of different Tertiary bedrock units, and is mapped as merging with the Pa Valley and Makuri faults near Makuri (Kelsey et al. 1995) (Fig. 2). The good preservation, steep scarp faces, and apparently young age of offset features along the Alfredton and Dreyers Rock Faults can be interpreted to reflect recent, possibly historical, surface rupture based on geomorphologic estimates alone. Photographs of scarps formed during the 1855 earthquake on the Wairarapa Fault (Ongley 1943a; Grapes & Wellman 1988) show similar morphologic characteristics. The entire length of the fault zone from the southern end of the Dreyers Rock Fault Zone near Mauriceville to the northernmost mapped trace of the Alfredton fault near Makuri, is 30 km (Fig. 2), which would represent a maximum rupture length for an earthquake that was confined to the Alfredton and Dreyers Rock faults. The fault scarp is very difficult to find between the northernmost scarp and where it crosses the Tiraumea River, however, and the northernmost scarp appears to have been freshened by recent landslides. The scarp is also obscured for several kilometres near the southern end near Mauriceville (Fig. 2); thus we believe it is unlikely that the most recent surface rupture exceeded c.20 km in length. We infer a minimum rupture length of 17 km during most recent earthquake based on similar scarp morphology. North of the Tiraumea River near Nikatea (Fig. 2), Lensen (1969) mapped and interpreted a fresh trace c.500 m long as a possible historic rupture; if this trace also ruptured in the most recent earthquake, it would extend the rupture length to 25 km and to within c.3 km of the Pa Valley Fault. 9 Paleoseismic investigation Trenching at two sites along the Alfredton Fault reveals evidence for the age of displacement during the last two earthquakes. Two trenches were excavated in 1991 along the fault near Alfredton (golf course trenches, Figs. 2, 3B), and a third trench was excavated in 1998 along a southern section of the fault west of Bartons Line (Percy trench, Figs. 2, 3A). Golf Course Trench sites: The golf course trenches were dug c.120 m apart, perpendicular to the fault across an uphill-facing scarp segment where two laterally offset channels of 12-14 and 8.5-13 m occur, and ponding of the drainage has formed swampy areas along the hillside. The scarp trends 040° and has a fairly constant height of c.1.5 m, northwest side up, where not obscured by landslides or artificial fill (Fig. 3B). Trench ALF-1 (Fig. 6) contains a single peaty mud layer 10-20 cm thick deposited above mottled grey silt which in turn lies above weathered yellow-brown siltstone interpreted as bedrock. In trench ALF-2 (Fig. 6) a peat horizon of similar thickness lies above silt interpreted either as weathered bedrock or alluvial silt. The peat layer in both trenches is deformed adjacent to the fault. Both trenches have a mixed unit of sheared clay, silt, and mud along the fault, and in ALF-1, a sliver of peat occurs along the fault plane, and a piece of wood (sample 1/3) occurs at the base of the mixed unit between the peat and the bedrock. The fault plane in both trenches dips southeast, and has a normal component of slip. Above the peat layer is a thin silt horizon, followed by topsoil that is seen to overlap the fault in ALF-2. The two trenches can be interpreted to record the last two surface-rupturing events on the Alfredton Fault: (1) the initial deposit of the peat records ponding of the channel at the scarp by the earliest recorded earthquake, and (2) an event that deformed the peat. The most recent rupture probably postdates the youngest peat date (<200 BP, Table 2), but this date could be contaminated by modern roots. The penultimate rupture occurred after 2960-2780 cal BP which is the age of wood caught in the fault plane, and before the oldest peat age of 510-690 cal BP (Table 2). The five peat samples yield a fairly small range of dates <200-690 cal B.P., suggesting that the ages, although minima, reflect peat formation not much prior to 690 cal B.P. 10 If this interpretation is correct, the wood caught in the fault would be considerably older than any event (or events) that incorporated it into a fault sliver. The trenches record two earthquakes and the channels are offset by 8.5-14 m (Fig. 3B), so the single-event horizontal slip on this segment of the Alfredton Fault ranges from 4.25-7 m. This value is consistent with the smallest lateral displacement observed at a number of sites along the fault trace, and is consistent with the cluster of observations at 4-7 m shown in Fig. 5A. Percy trench: A third trench was excavated c.5 km south of the golf course site across a steep section of a 4 m-high scarp in a ponded area on the western strand of the Alfredton Fault, where the fault consists of two active traces (Figs. 2, 3A). The western trace contains evidence for dextrally offset features whereas the eastern strand appears to have mainly a dip-slip component and was interpreted by Neef (1976) as a bedding-plane parallel fault. Lensen (1969) observed a terrace riser offset dextrally 4.6 m a few metres north of the trench site, but this riser has been destroyed by road building. A larger stream offset (28-39m; reported by Lensen (1969) as 32 m) occurs just south of the trench site (Figs. 3A, 4). The most important features of the trench log (Fig. 7) are the presence of different bedrock units in the hangingwall and footwall and the presence of two gravelly silt units (units 7 and 8), interpreted as colluvial wedges, deposited above massive silt on the footwall. Unit 7 is not cut by faults and part of unit 8 is cut by fault A. There are two layers of concentrated charcoal, with the younger layer at the base of unit 12 and an older layer along the top of unit 9 and the base of unit 13. Two buried soils (developed on units 9 and 11) are present in the footwall. Three faults (A, B, and C) were observed; fault A cuts nearly up into the topsoil, which itself is fractured. Fault B appears to be overlapped by the unit 8 colluvial wedge but the presence of disrupted soil blocks at the apparent base of the wedge makes it difficult to see the upward extent of this fault. Fault C is confined to bedrock in the hangingwall of the fault. At least two surface-rupture earthquakes are interpreted at the Percy trench. The most recent event is represented by movement along fault A and deposition of colluvial wedge unit 7, 11 which appears to be ongoing as remobilisation of similar material in unit 2. Colluvial wedge unit 8 may have formed during the same earthquake as unit 7, or possibly an earlier one. Unit 8 overlaps fault B and is partially cut by fault A; it is possible that this unit was deposited and collapsed during movement on fault B, and then was cut through by fault A as slip propagated upward in the same event. Dating of the lower charcoal layer and material within wedge unit 8 would then suggest this event occurred after 540-310 cal B.P (sample 1/3) and possibly after 470-0 cal BP (sample 1/6; Fig. 7). The eastern thin edge of wedge unit 8 overlaps a charcoal horizon, but this part of the wedge likely represents somewhat later reworking of the wedge material and the charcoal ages (samples 1/2, 1/6) do not directly constrain the event age. The oldest event in the trench is represented by the wedge-shaped silts of units 9-10 burying the soil of unit 11, but no dateable material was recovered from unit 11. It is also possible that faults A and B slipped during two separate events; thus the trench would contain evidence for three events. In this interpretation, fault A would postdate unit 8 but slip decreased upward on that fault during the earthquake that formed unit 7. The earlier event would be constrained to ≥540-310 cal BP (sample 1/3). There is no constraint on the later event except that it overlaps the charcoal horizon of sample 1/6 and thus postdates 470-0 cal BP. Geologic and historical evidence constrain the last earthquake to have occurred since the bush was cleared, possibly less than 200 yr ago. Radiocarbon ages also permit this interpretation. The charcoal horizons probably represent land clearing by both Maori and Europeans, as burning was the common method of clearing bush, although natural fires are also a possibility. The history of the Alfredton area and northern Wairarapa (Bagnall 1976; Edmonds 1987) suggests that there were Maori present in the area around Alfredton township before the arrival of the first European settlers in the 1860s, but how long they had been there is unknown. The first European settlers in the study area west of Bartons line were the Percys, ancestors of the current landowners, who report having to clear the bush in the area in the late 1870s-80s (Edmonds 1987), but do not mention specific localities that might have already been cleared. A small hand-dug trench c.100 m north of the Percy trench along the Alfredton Fault showed the 12 fault cuts a prominent charcoal horizon, and is consistent with the evidence from the larger trench that the last earthquake postdates land clearing. The 14C dates on samples 1/2 and 1/6 from the lower charcoal layer (Fig. 7, Table 2) suggest that there was some prehistoric burning at the site, and put an upper limit on the timing of the last earthquake at c.AD 1450. Alfredton fault slip rate Calculation of a slip rate on the Alfredton Fault is important for consideration of regional strain because it is the largest fault in the region besides the Wellington Fault, and is estimated to have accommodated 1-3mm/yr slip out of a total of 8mm/yr dextral slip across this portion of the NIDFZ (Beanland 1995). Although we do not have data on either several (>2) well-dated offsets or a large offset that reflects slip over several thousand years, we can propose minimum and maximum slip rates on the Alfredton fault from the golf course trench data. We consider that 8.5-14 m strike slip occurred in two events over a maximum time of 2960 yr (the maximum age of sample Alf 1/3), or a minimum time of 510 yr (the minimum age of the oldest peat sample Alf 2/11) giving a lateral slip rate of 2.9-27 mm/yr. The minimum slip rate is consistent with the estimate of McCallion (1996) who trenched the fault c.1 km north of the golf course trenches. At McCallion’s site, terrace risers are offset laterally by 20 ± 2 m and gravels underlying the terrace surface are dated at 7 ka. He calculated a minimum net slip rate of 2.6 mm/yr when corrected for the vertical component and the strike of the fault (McCallion 1996). Two earthquakes are recorded in his trench; faulting of the topsoil in both trenches suggests fairly recent rupture but the soils are not dated. Although these estimates are first approximations, a c.3 mm/yr minimum slip rate is larger than previously estimated (1-3 mm/yr; Beanland 1995) and represents a significant proportion of the integrated dextral slip rate in this region (8 mm/yr, Beanland 1995). Furthermore, if cumulative Quaternary offset is less than a few hundred metres as suggested by Kelsey et al. (1995), the data would require that the slip increased to this rate within the last few hundred thousand years. 13 Saunders Road Fault The Saunders Road Fault is a dextral fault that occurs as a series of discontinuous en echelon scarps c.1-4 km long that trend more easterly (050-065°) than the Alfredton Fault and extend for at least 13 km northeast from the northern end of the Alfredton Fault (Fig. 2). The faults appear to dip steeply as they have straight trends across ridges and valleys. Scarps have fairly steep (20-40°) grassy faces and are composed of bedrock with a thin soil cover. Most traces are eroded by the larger modern streams, gullies, and landslides, but are preserved as uphill-facing segments across steep slopes in between the gullies and on ridge crests. Some individual scarp segments appear very fresh where small (c.30 cm high), or very steep (up to 60°) scarps and complex and fine-scale fault features (e.g., bifurcations, open fractures, sharp curves) are preserved. Few offset features are preserved along the Saunders Road Fault, but the smallest dextral offsets are 3.5-6 m, with a vertical component of 0.5-1 m, typically with northwest side upthrown (Schermer et al. 1998). One strand of the fault at Kaitawa (Fig. 4) displaces a terrace riser by 9-13 m dextral, 2-2.5 m vertically; the scarp on the lowest terrace is 1-1.5 m high, but no dextral offset can be measured there. Thus, we interpret the older terrace offset to be the result of at least two events. If the terrace is equivalent in age (c.7 ka) to that near Alfredton (McCallion 1996), we can calculate an approximate maximum single-event lateral slip of 4-6 m, a dextral slip rate of c.1.3-2 mm/yr, and an estimated recurrence interval of 7000/2=3500 yr. The Saunders Road Fault juxtaposes identical bedrock types of the Eketahuna Group (Saunders Siltstone; Neef 1974; Kelsey et al. 1995) and thus has little cumulative vertical displacement. The locally fresh fault scarps suggest the possibility that part of the Saunders Road Fault ruptured in recent or historical time, but we cannot constrain the timing or magnitude of any causative earthquake. The overall somewhat eroded nature of the trace suggests the last rupture was within the last few thousand years rather than a few hundred. On the other hand, it is intriguing that the compilation of 1934 earthquake damage (Downes et al. 1999) lists particularly severe cracking on the Alfredton-Pongaroa road at Kaitawa, where it is crossed by one trace of 14 the Saunders Road Fault (Fig. 4). The Saunders Road school closed after the earthquake because damage from chimney collapse was too severe to repair (Edmonds 1987). Without further detailed study of the Saunders Road Fault, however, we cannot distinguish between cracking due to shaking of poorly consolidated road fill and fault displacement, or whether any strands of the fault might have ruptured in historical times. There are no constraints on the rupture length other than a maximum of 25 km from the mapped length of the fault. It is difficult to tell whether the short length of individual scarps may be in part a real feature of the Saunders Road Fault or whether this characteristic is due to erosion. Waitawhiti Fault The Waitawhiti Fault (Figs. 2, 3D) exhibits the longest surface trace in the southeastern part of the study area, with a trend of 040-060° and a length of 5-6 km. One exposure of the fault has an orientation of 058/77° NW; however, the trace across topography indicates subvertical and locally steep southeast dips. The upthrown side changes along strike, with the southeast side typically upthrown in the central section, but northwest side up at the ends. The fault dies out to the south where it splays into two short, subdued scarps across terrace surfaces c.5 m above Waitawhiti stream (Fig. 2) but does not cut the lowest two terraces. The scarp is similarly subdued and splayed at the northeast end. The trace of the northern half of the fault, although difficult to follow, can be located at track and ridge crossings. In the central section of the Waitawhiti Fault, the scarp face, developed on mudstone with thin soil, is fairly fresh, with a scarp-face angle of up to 45°, typically c.20-25°, and shows minimal erosion by streams and landslides. Although no dates are available, these characteristics suggest the last rupture was within the last few thousand years. The scarp face is somewhat lower angle and more degraded than scarps along the Alfredton Fault and the Waipukaka Fault, despite being in similar materials on similarly steep slopes. Scarps are rarely preserved on northeast-facing sides of ridges in the area, where dextral offset would produce a downhill-facing scarp or a smaller uphill-facing scarp. 15 Measurements of offsets are limited despite careful field study. There are several locations where ridgelines or gullies offsets of c.4 and c.8 m are observed, and one location where a gully is offset 4±2 m, (Fig. 5B), thus the single-event lateral slip appears to be c.4 m. The lateral to vertical component is ≥4:1 on all measured offsets. The largest geomorphic offset is a pair of streams laterally offset by 50 m (Fig. 3D); this is the same as the measured displacement of the contact between two Miocene bedrock units (Schermer et al,. 1998). These observations suggest that the fault has accumulated very little net slip, and thus has formed very recently. Berryman & Cowan (1993) noted that the geomorphic expression of the fault suggested the possibility of rupture within the last few hundred years. However, our comparison of the morphology of the Waitawhiti Fault with other faults in the region suggests that the Alfredton and Waipukaka Faults were more likely to have had historical surface rupture. The fairly large single-event displacement of c.4 m suggests the fault is capable of producing large earthquakes, and further detailed work would be useful in characterising the importance of this fault in a regional seismic hazard analysis. East Puketoi Faults In the Pongaroa area (Fig. 2), the absence of strata younger than Miocene makes it difficult to interpret the late Neogene-Quaternary history. Bedrock consists of Miocene strata and Late Cretaceous Whangai Formation (Kingma 1962, 1967; Delteil et al. 1996). Faults in the area are inferred to have early Miocene movement (Ridd 1967; Delteil et al. 1996). However, the mapped relationships (Kingma 1967), also indicate a younger period of reverse or dextralreverse movement in post-early Miocene time. The East Puketoi faults comprise a zone of distributed short fault traces east of the Puketoi range front. Although many of the traces appear to have a normal component of slip (Berryman & Cowan 1993), the largest fault in the zone, the Waipukaka Fault (new name; Figs. 2, 3C, 8) has a reverse component. The faults trend NNE to northeast and locally appear subparallel to bedding in the underlying Whangai Formation, which dips moderately to steeply northwest in much of the zone (Kingma 1967). Most of the active fault traces trend more northerly than either 16 the bedding or the older (Miocene) faults (Delteil et al 1996; Kingma 1967). The Miocene faults juxtapose Whangai Formation against Miocene units and thus have significant cumulative slip; however, none of the Quaternary traces appear to reactivate the older faults. The Quaternary traces appear to have limited (<100 m) cumulative slip because they do not juxtapose different bedrock units and do not significantly offset the contacts of bedrock units (as mapped by Kingma 1967). In some areas, earlier Quaternary fault trends, which are more easterly (Fig. 3C; dashed lines, Fig. 8), appear to be cut through by the more northerly trending Waipukaka Fault. Seismic reflection data in the Dannevirke region just to the north of the East Puketoi Fault Zone suggest that faults commonly dip 40-70°NW and are dominantly reverse faults that have initiated within the last c.1 m.y. (Beanland et al. 1998). Several of the freshest traces of the East Puketoi zone were examined in this study. The northwest-dipping Oporae Road faults (Fig. 8) have a dominant normal component of displacement. Scarps along the Oporae Road Faults are well preserved, with moderate face angles of 20-30°, but they do not cut terraces at the major stream crossings. There are no age constraints on rupture along these faults so we can only surmise activity within the last few thousand years based on the relative freshness of the scarps. The Weber Fault (Fig. 2), another fault possibly related to the East Puketoi zone, appears to reactivate an older fault and has measured dextral offsets of 6 and 13 m of channels cut into a landslide (Berryman & Beanland 1990; Berryman & Cowan 1993). Scarps on this fault are substantially more subdued than those on Oporae Road Faults or the Waipukaka Fault, but Berryman & Beanland (1990) reported a 1-2 m high scarp on a Pleistocene terrace 30 m above river level, indicating Quaternary activity. Waipukaka Fault The Waipukaka Fault is the longest, most continuous fault in the East Puketoi zone. The active trace extends along a NE-NNE trend, but several right and left steps are marked by zones of shorter en echelon traces (Figs. 3C, 8). The fault dips west at c. 25-45° in the central section but appears to be subvertical at the northern end. Between Waipukaka and Waihi Streams, the youngest trace is a 25° west-dipping thrust that appears to have propagated east from an older, 17 straighter, and presumably subvertical fault (Fig. 8). The mapped extent of the active trace of the Waipukaka Fault is c.7-10 km, with the larger value including fresh traces southwest of Korora. The southern portion is obscured by slips or cultivated terraces near Korora and the northern end dies out gradually north of Horoeka (Fig. 8). Scarps along the Waipukaka Fault appear extremely fresh and well preserved even where downhill facing and where the fault crosses the lowest stream terraces. Only a few offset features were observed (Figs. 3C, 5, 8), and most offset features are incised gullies with slumped walls. Therefore, the streams could be in part deflected rather than tectonically offset. Nevertheless, offset features point to a combination of dextral and reverse (locally normal) slip, with a lateral to vertical ratio of c.5:1 to 2:1, somewhat lower than that for faults farther south. Minimum dextral slip of c.3 m can be inferred from the geomorphic offsets (Fig. 5). Two trenches c.35 m apart were excavated perpendicular to the Waipukaka Fault south of Horoeka, where a 2-4 m high scarp cuts a young alluvial surface (Figs. 3C, 8). Vertical displacement along the fault dammed a small stream to produce a swamp; the stream has cut through the scarp. No lateral offset markers are apparent at the site. Trench logs from the Waipukaka Fault show evidence for multiple slip events on shallowly west-dipping faults (Fig. 9). The important features of Hendricksen trench 1 (Fig. 9A) are juxtaposition of Cretaceous bedrock over Quaternary deposits along two low-angle thrust faults and the presence of three gravelly silt units (units 4, 6, 7) that thicken and coarsen toward the fault and are not present on the upthrown block except at the scarp face. A soil is developed on units 8a and 8b, and units 6 and 7 are overlain by a layer of concentrated charcoal dated at <200 BP (sample Hend 1/5, Table 2) The thrust faults exhibit oblique striae (rake 65-75°SW) consistent with dextral-reverse slip. In Hendricksen trench 2 (Fig. 9B), similar features are represented, including: three thrust faults juxtaposing bedrock over Quaternary units and three gravelly silt units that thicken and coarsen toward the fault (units 1, 3, 5), with a fourth gravelly silt, unit 4, near the fault that does not thicken or coarsen westward. The organic-rich horizon at the top of unit 8 is interpreted as a buried soil; another buried soil with a concentrated layer of 18 charcoal and historical artifacts (base of unit 0) is developed on unit 6. The artifacts include glass bottles, glass and china fragments, and the leather sole of a shoe. The eastern tip of unit 1 appears to overlie and interfinger with the sediment that contains the charcoal and artifacts at its base. The thrust faults in both trenches dip at 16-33°NW, and appear to steepen downward. We interpret the evidence from both trenches to record at least the last three, and possibly as many as five earthquakes on the Waipukaka Fault, with the most recent rupture being after European settlement of the area. A comparison of inferred event stratigraphy in the two trenches and alternative interpretations of trench 2 are shown in Table 3, based on the radiocarbon ages (Table 2), correlation of the uppermost colluvial wedges in the two trenches, and the interpretation that these wedges represent the most recent surface rupture. Trench 1 has the most straightforward interpretation. The three gravelly silt units in trench 1 (units 4, 6, 7) are interpreted as colluvial wedges formed in separate events because each overlaps a buried soil or significant thickness of alluvial sediment, and the two lower wedges are cut by fault B (Fig. 9A). The most recent event is represented by unit 4 and postdates the “modern” (<200 cal BP) date of sample Hend 1/5. The penultimate event, represented by wedge unit 6 burying c.80 cm of alluvial silt of unit 7, is constrained to be older than sample Hend 1/3 (310-0 cal BP, Table 2); a root that grew into the wedge material and may have been cut off by fault B. An earlier event is represented by the gravelly silt at the western end of unit 7 and the buried soil at the top of unit 8a. There is also a suggestion of a fourth event in trench 1 that did not produce a colluvial wedge visible in the trench, where fissured bedrock is overlain and infilled by alluvial sediment, and a faulted or possibly tilted tree root (unit 9) is present at the top of the bedrock (Table 3, interpretation B). The age of the oldest unit sampled indicates that the three youngest earthquakes recorded in trench 1 postdate 8290-7880 cal BP (sample Hend 1/4, Table 2, Fig. 9A). The oldest event would be >8 ka but its maximum age is unconstrained. Trench 2 provides additional age constraints and evidence of possible additional events (Fig 9B, Table 3). The most recent event is represented by unit 1, which overlaps and grades into the artifacts layer. The penultimate event, represented by wedge unit 3, is constrained only to be 19 younger than 2.8 ka (2950-2750 cal yr BP, sample Hend 2/2, Table 2). An earlier event is represented by the buried soil of unit 8 and colluvial wedge unit 5, which would thus shortly post-date 2.8 ka. The oldest event may be interpreted from the silts and clayey silts in the western part of unit 8 and sand unit 7, which could be produced from faulting and initial damming of the stream. A possible fifth event could be interpreted from gravelly silt unit 4 in trench 2; however, it has a channel rather than a wedge geometry, and has a fine-grained silt layer within it. We prefer to interpret unit 4 as an alluvial unit cut into unit 5 and overlapped by wedge 3. It is plausible that units 3, 4, and 5 formed during the same event, as slip propagated upward toward the surface and lower parts of the scarp collapsed, so there is a minimum of three events in trench 2. However, the interpretation of unit 4 as an alluvial deposit cut into unit 5 suggests significant time elapsed between units 3 and 5, and correlation with trench 1 suggests these represent two separate events. In summary, our preferred interpretation (Table 3) is that four events are recorded in both trenches: the oldest event at >8 ka, three events since 2.8 ka, and one since AD1750. Evidence from the trenches indicates a historical age for the most recent rupture. We correlate the charcoal layers (unit 5 in trench 1 and the base of unit 0 in trench 2) in the two trenches. These charcoal layers are interpreted to represent the time the earliest settlers cleared the forest by burning. This interpretation is supported by the artifacts found within the charcoalrich layer in trench 2 and the < AD1750 age of the charcoal layer in trench 1. In trench 1, the most recent colluvial wedge overlies the charcoal layer, thus constraining the most recent event to postdate forest clearing and occupation. Further consistency can be provided by the young (310-0 cal BP) age of sample 1/3, if it is interpreted as a root that post-dates the penultimate event and was sheared off by faulting during the most recent event. Historical evidence for the age of the charcoal layer, the time of European settlement and land clearing in the Horoeka area is provided in Wilson (1976) and in a series of unpublished school centennial histories and manuscripts held in the Pongaroa district historical society. This evidence suggests the forest 20 was burned and the site was occupied between about 1874 and the 1920s (Schermer et al. 1998), thus suggesting the most recent earthquake postdates c.1900. The minimum slip in each event can be constrained by restoring the bedrock fault slivers along each fault back to the western edge of the underlying colluvial wedge and back to level of the bedrock in the footwall (Fig. 9). This reconstruction indicates minimum thrust slip of 2 m in trench 1 and 1 m in trench 2 in the most recent rupture, 0.7 m in both trenches in the penultimate event (assuming fault B was reactivated in trench 1), and 2 m in trench 1 and 2.5 m in trench 2 in the antepenultimate (and possibly one prior) event. If the lateral to vertical ratio is similar to that of locations a few kilometres to the south along the Waipukaka River where the strike of the fault and the scarp heights are similar (Figs. 3C, 8), we can estimate 3-6 m lateral slip per event (Figs. 5, 9). Combining the geomorphic evidence with the trench measurements gives a net (oblique) slip range of 3-7 m per event, while using the oblique striae and dip-slip displacement measured in the trenches gives an average minimum net slip of c.2 m per event. Since the trenched segment of the fault trends more northerly than the overall fault, we would expect a greater than average thrust component. Waipukaka Fault slip rate Along the Waipukaka Fault, a slip rate can be estimated from the trench data and the estimated single-event displacement. Three to four earthquakes in the last 8290-7880 yr with net (dextral-reverse) slip 3-7 m each (strike slip 3-6 m), gives a range of oblique slip rates from 1.1 to 3.6 mm/yr with a strike-slip component of 1.1-3.0 mm/yr. Calculation of the rate since 27502950 yr (2 or 3 events) yields 2.0-7.6 mm/yr oblique slip with a strike-slip component of 2.06.5mm/yr. Even the minimum slip rate represents a significant addition to the known dextral shear in the region (Fig. 1); (Beanland 1995). DISCUSSION The evidence from mapping and trenching in northern Wairarapa suggests that significant surface-rupture earthquakes have occurred in historic and prehistoric time. In this section we 21 analyse which faults are most likely to have ruptured in known historical events. We combine the data on rupture parameters and timing of earthquakes to discuss the seismic hazard in the region. Historical surface ruptures The single-event displacements on the Alfredton and Waipukaka Faults are compatible with large-magnitude earthquakes, and the geomorphologic and paleoseismic evidence from both fault zones supports a recent or historical event. We examine the record of large historical earthquakes in the North Island to assess which, if any, events are likely to have occurred on faults in the study area. Doser & Webb (2003) suggest that, in the North Island, earthquakes of Mw 7.2-7.3 or less are unlikely to break the surface. Because radiocarbon age determinations will not distinguish between events in the last few hundred years, historical evidence provides the means to establish the timing of rupture. Historical earthquakes near enough and large enough to be considered as surface rupture candidates for this study include 1855, 1904, 1917, 1931, 1934, and 1942 (Fig. 1, Table 1). Slip on the faults in the study area during the 1931 Hawke’s Bay events is ruled out by the extensive studies on surface rupture and geodetic displacements (Henderson 1933; Hull 1990), which show the southern extent of the rupture at Poukawa, 70 km north of the northern end of the Waipukaka Fault Zone. The 1904 Cape Turnagain earthquake (Fig. 1, Table 1) appears to have an epicentre offshore and a magnitude of Ms 6.7 (Downes 1995), thus, we consider it unlikely to have produced onshore surface rupture. Similarly, the 1917 earthquake, although poorly constrained by instrumental recordings, appears to be somewhat too small (Mw 6.8) and too deep (20 km; Doser & Webb 2003) to have caused surface rupture. Therefore, we consider the possibilities for rupture in 1855 (Mw 8.2), 1934 (Mw 7.2-7.4) and 1942 (Mw 6.9-7.2), because of the locations of these earthquakes in Wairarapa and because the area of the Alfredton and Waipukaka Faults was not examined for surface rupture in the immediate aftermath of these earthquakes. In 1855 and 1942 study focused on the southern parts of the Wairarapa region. Although Ongley (Ongley 1934; Ongley 1934 (unpub.); Ongley 22 1935) visited the 1934 epicentral region to look for fault scarps immediately after the earthquake, his field notes indicate that he did not go to the area of the Waipukaka or Alfredton Faults. He did return to the Alfredton Fault in December, 1935 (Henderson 1936); we discuss those observations in the following section. Probable Historical Earthquake on the Alfredton Fault Historical evidence is permissive of rupture on the Alfredton Fault in the 1855 earthquake, but does not unequivocally require it. Grapes & Wellman (1988) and Grapes & Downes (1997) summarise the geological and historical evidence for rupture along the Wairarapa Fault in 1855. The rupture is conventionally regarded to have had a northward termination at Mauriceville (Fig. 2), where the fault branches into the Pa Valley-Makuri Fault system and the the Dreyers RockAlfredton Fault system. However, the slip observations summarised by Grapes & Wellman (1988) show that although the vertical component decreases northward to become nearly zero at Mauriceville, the strike-slip component remains at c.10 m (compared to a maximum of 13 m), suggesting there may be a northward extension of the rupture with decreasing dextral slip. Inasmuch as the area was unoccupied and covered by thick forest at the time, any rupture would have been extremely difficult to find for several decades after the earthquake. Grapes & Wellman (1988) include on their map the sites along the Alfredton Fault that Lensen (1969) had recorded as extremely fresh, but the age of displacement as unknown. A contemporaneous settler's report of a continuous rupture from 97 to 145 km from Palliser Bay cited by Lyell (1856), which would include the Alfredton Fault, is regarded by Grapes & Downes (1997) as suspicious because the same report contained other errors in distance measurements. However, Ongley (1943a) showed the 1855 rupture extending north of Mauriceville as discontinous scarps to near Alfredton; he visited scarps that were found by early settlers in the area and interpreted to be 1855 traces, but he had neither independent dating of the scarps nor contemporaneous accounts. 23 The June (Mw6.9-7.2) and August (Mw6.8) 1942 Wairarapa earthquakes caused considerable damage in Wairarapa (up to MM8; Downes et al. 2001). Recent analysis suggests the June event was a strike-slip earthquake in the Australian plate, while the August event was a normal fault earthquake in the downgoing Pacific Plate (Doser & Webb 2003). The great depth (40 km) of the August earthquake suggests it was unlikely to cause surface rupture. Neef (1976) noted that the fault scarp east of the main Alfredton Fault appeared extremely fresh on airphotos taken in 1944, and suggested that this c.2 km segment of fault moved as a bedding-plane-parallel fault in the August earthquake, with c.1-2 m of reverse displacement and ≤0.6 m dextral displacement. However, our observations are that the main Alfredton Fault trace is at least as fresh (Fig. 3B), and probably moved at the same time with greater slip. Contemporaneous reports of rupture in the 1942 earthquakes are limited to some extremely short scarps northeast of Masterton (labeled 1942 surface break on Fig. 2); (Ongley 1943b). In this study, we examined airphotos from 194344 in the northern part of the area of 1942 ground disturbance and rupture reported by Ongley. Our airphoto analysis and recent fieldwork by Downes et al. (2001) suggests that the scarp features are due to landslides rather than faults. Photographs taken by Ongley in December of 1935 (some published in Ongley (1943a), others in Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences (IGNS) archives) and by Combes in 1947 (IGNS archives) at several sites along the Alfredton Fault show fairly fresh scarps, but the amount of vegetation and scarp degradation are comparable to that at other sites along the 1855 trace (Ongley 1943a). This photographic evidence does not suggest rupture in the previous few years (e.g., in 1934 or 1942). Thus it appears that 1855 is the most likely date of the most recent earthquake along the Alfredton Fault. We cannot, however, completely rule out rupture during other earthquakes between c.AD 1750 and the time of New Zealand’s first instrumentally recorded earthquakes (1906), or the 1917 Mw 6.8 earthquake. If our interpretation of rupture in 1855 is correct, it extends the rupture length by c.20 km added to the 97 km previously recognised south of Mauriceville (Grapes & Wellman 1988), and suggests the rupture had to propagate across a c.6 km wide right-step, the Dreyers Rock Fault 24 Zone (Fig. 10). The actual surface slip north of Mauriceville may have been heterogeneous, however, as there are several kilometres where the scarp is subdued or difficult to locate on airphotos taken in 1944, and probably reflects the decreasing slip at the northern end of the 1855 rupture. Our estimate of 4-7 m maximum lateral slip on the Alfredton Fault, compared with 1213 m on the Wairarapa Fault (Grapes & Wellman 1988), is consistent with this inference. Likely Historical Earthquake on the Waipukaka Fault Along the Waipukaka Fault Zone we can rule out 1855 rupture because the most recent earthquake rupture exposed in the trenches (Fig. 9) postdates European settlement, which did not occur in this area until c. 1896. Furthermore, the fault is nearly 150 km north of the interpreted epicentre of the 1855 earthquake (Fig. 1) and c. 30 km from the northernmost Alfredton Fault rupture (Fig. 10). Isoseismals for the 1942 earthquake suggest that damage was too slight near Horoeka for that event to involve local fault rupture (MM6-7; Downes 1995). Shaking and extensive chimney and building damage is reported at the time of the 1934 earthquake (Whitta 1990; Downes et al. 1999), but no fault or surface features were reported, and we have been unable to contact any of the people who lived along the fault zone at the time. Ongley's 1934 field notes indicate that he surveyed the area between Pongaroa and the coast after the 1934 earthquake, but did not go to the Horoeka area. Thus, we conclude that 1934 is the most likely time of an historical event near Horoeka. This finding is consistent with the newly determined epicentre location of Downes et al., (1999; Fig. 2), which is only 7 km (±20 km) east of the Waipukaka Fault. Possible Historical Earthquakes on the Saunders Road Fault? The gap in fresh scarp morphology between the northern end of the Alfredton Fault and the southern end of the Waipukaka Fault is c.30 km and coincides approximately with the known trace of the Saunders Road Fault (Fig. 10). Geomorphologic characteristics suggest that the last rupture on the fault zone as a whole was older than that to the north and south. It is possible, however, that the fault did rupture in 1855 or 1934 because some short (1-2 km long) segments 25 of the fault have scarps that appear to be as fresh as those we consider historical, and the intense road cracking in 1934 occurred along one of the fault segments (G. Downes, pers. comm.. 1998). The largest aftershock in 1934 (Ml 5.8) also occurred near the Saunders Road Fault (Fig. 2). Recent work shows that the epicentre of a small, shallow, strike-slip earthquake in 1942 (Mw 5.6) is also near the Saunders Road fault (Downes et al. 2001, Doser & Webb 2003). These two small earthquakes are unlikely to have produced surface faulting. Implications for seismic hazard analysis We estimate the magnitude of likely earthquakes on the Alfredton and Waipukaka Faults using the regressions of Wells & Coppersmith (1994), and Stirling et al. (2002), and calculation of moment magnitude (Hanks & Kanamori 1979) (Table 4). For these calculations, we need to estimate rupture area and slip. As described previously, the most recent surface rupture on the Alfredton Fault occurred along a 17-20 km long segment of the fault, and the single-event lateral displacement was 4-7 m. On the Waipukaka Fault, the surface rupture length is interpreted to be 7-10 km and the single-event oblique slip is estimated at 3-7 m. We can estimate fault area by using the fault length and average dip together with a range of earthquake depths of 12-23 km provided by the body-wave modelling of earthquakes in the upper crust of the North Island (Webb & Anderson 1998; Doser & Webb 2003). We consider the possibility that each fault ruptured independently, although it is likely that the Alfredton Fault was a small segment of the much larger 1855 rupture. We also consider the scenario, yet to be tested, that during the Waipukaka Fault earthquake, coeval rupture also occurred in the 25-30 km long gap that coincides with the Saunders Road Fault, as is suggested by the map continuity of the faults (Fig. 10). As can be seen in Table 4, using the regressions of Wells & Coppersmith (1994) for rupture length and area predicts a much smaller magnitude than that calculated for the regression for slip, or the calculation based on seismic moment (Hanks & Kanamori 1979). Updating and reanalysis 26 of the Wells & Coppersmith regressions by Stirling et al. (2002) showed that a different set of regression parameters provides a better fit for events with rupture lengths >10 km and average surface displacements >2m. Magnitudes based on the Stirling et al. (2002) regressions are shown in Table 4 to be closer to the slip-based magnitude estimates, however the range of magnitudes is large due to the combined uncertainties in regression parameters and in depth, and the corresponding uncertainty in fault area. Even using the Stirling et al. (2002) regression, there is a mismatch between magnitudes calculated from slip and those calculated from length of the individual faults, especially for the Waipukaka fault (Table 4). The regression of surface displacement on rupture length shows a range of predicted slips from 1-3 m rather than our observed range of 3-7 m. The faults are shorter than would be expected for their slip, and short faults typically do not generate large earthquakes. The calculated magnitude is more consistent with the slip-based estimate if a combined rupture length (32-40 km) for the Waipukaka and Saunders Road Faults is used. The >50 km length of the MM9 isoseismal for the 1934 earthquake (Fig. 2), the location of the epicentre and surface rupture at the northern end of the isoseismal, and the long unilateral rupture length (70 km) and multiple pulses of slip recognised in the waveform analysis of Doser & Webb (2003), suggest that significant slip occurred southwest of the Waipukaka Fault trace. The average fault slip of 4.3 m calculated by Doser & Webb (2003) agrees with our observations but their rupture length is far greater than that observed, even if the Saunders Road fault is included. We cannot constrain whether slip in 1934 occurred as surface slip on the Saunders Road Fault or as subsurface slip on the Saunders Road or other faults; however the lack of continuous fresh scarps southwest of Korora (Fig. 8), suggests that the rupture did not break the surface along most of its length. The surface rupture characteristics and geometry of the Waipukaka Fault Zone present problems for seismic hazard analysis. The fault zone is composed of many small segments distributed over a wide (c. 1 km) zone (Fig. 8); until this study, the faults were not recognised as constituting either a continuous structure or a significant seismic source. The incompatibility 27 between surface slip and length of the fault (Table 4) may be due to the relative immaturity of the structure. If the Waipukaka Fault is a newly developing fault, a short surface rupture length relative to slip might be expected until a system of through-going faults can connect along strike and at depth, as has been argued for strike-slip faults by Wesnousky, (1988). Alternatively, the oblique-reverse character of the fault zone shows some similarities to reverse faults that ruptured in large earthquakes, such as those in 1932 Chang Ma, China 1980 Spitak, Armenia 1971 San Fernando, California, and 1992 Suusamyr, Kyrgyzstan (Rubin 1996; Ghose et al. 1997). These earthquakes exhibited complex and highly segmented surface rupture patterns, with large (kmscale) gaps between surface rupture segments, suggesting this may be a characteristic of large intracontinental reverse fault earthquakes (Rubin 1996). Ghose et al (1997) argued that the short surface rupture in the 1992 Suusamyr (Ms 7.3) earthquake is related to redistribution of slip at depth on secondary splays and variable surface slip. Although we can place some constraints on the maximum magnitude of an earthquake on both the Alfredton and Waipukaka Faults, it is considerably more difficult to evaluate recurrence intervals. Because only the last two earthquakes on the Alfredton Fault could be dated, and because we have poor constraints on slip rate, we cannot calculate a long-term recurrence interval, or evaluate whether the fault moves in a time-predictable manner. Minimum recurrence intervals can be estimated from the golf course sites, where two earthquakes occurred in the last 700-2900 yr, and the Percy site, where two earthquakes occurred in the last >540 yr. However, if one of the earthquakes reflects the northern end of the 1855 earthquake on the Wairarapa Fault, any apparent recurrence interval does not apply to the Alfredton Fault alone. The likely surface rupture on the Alfredton Fault in 1855 has implications for assessing seismic hazard along the Wairarapa and Alfredton Faults. In addition to extending the rupture length by c.20 km, the rupture had to propagate across a c.6 km wide right step, the Dreyers Rock Fault Zone. This stepover is the largest geometric discontinuity in the Wairarapa Fault zone with the exception of one similarly-sized left step c.20 km north of Palliser Bay (Grapes & Wellman 1988). Such a stepover would ordinarily be considered a barrier to rupture propagation 28 in an analysis of seismic hazard based on mapped fault characteristics. Fault-segment rupture lengths are usually measured from one mapped geometric discontinuity (e.g., stepover, gap, bend, or intersection with other faults) to the next (e.g., Schwartz & Sibson 1989). This approach has proved useful in analysis of some strike-slip faults such as the Imperial Fault of California (e.g., Sieh 1996), and the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey (e.g., Barka & KadinskyCade 1988), but would not have been able to describe the 1992 (Mw 7.3) Landers earthquake in southern California, which ruptured across several pre-existing faults of different orientations and had significant stepovers and gaps along the surface rupture trace (Sieh et al. 1993). In the case of the Wairarapa Fault, the earthquake magnitude is increased by only 0.1 magnitude units by adding in the rupture length of the Alfredton Fault. However, if the Alfredton Fault slips in conjunction with the Wairarapa Fault, the maximum earthquake in the Alfredton area increases by c.0.6-0.9 magnitude units if the entire length is considered, or by c.0.3-0.4 magnitude units if the maximum slip of 12 m on the Wairarapa Fault is used. Paleoseismic data summarised by Van Dissen & Berryman (1996) suggest that the recurrence interval of earthquakes on the Wairarapa Fault is 1160-1880 yr (with a shortest measured inter-event time of 1200 yr). The maximum recurrence interval on the Alfredton Fault (two events in 2900 yr), is consistent with this estimate. However, if the interpretation of the earlier event as only somewhat predating the oldest peat age (c.700 yr) is correct, the apparently shorter inter-event time on the Alfredton Fault would suggest that earthquakes are smaller and more frequent on the Alfredton Fault than on the Wairarapa Fault. Although our data do not constrain the timing, it is possible that the Alfredton Fault has ruptured independently of the Wairarapa Fault (e.g., the penultimate earthquake on the Alfredton Fault), as well as at the same time as the Wairarapa Fault (e.g., 1855). The Waipukaka Fault trenches contain evidence for the last three, probably four, earthquakes (Table 3). The average recurrence interval since 2.8 ka ranges from 710 to 1400 yr depending on the interpretation of trench 2. The interevent time for between the oldest two earthquakes, however, is from >8ka to 2.8 ka (5200 yr), suggesting that the recurrence interval is 29 not regular, unless there are earthquakes between 8 and 2.8 ka that are not recorded in the trenches. The range of calculated recurrence intervals and the recency of the last event (1934) makes it unlikely that another earthquake will occur on this fault in the near future. Slip rates of faults in the forearc region Although we are unable to put precise constraints on the slip rates of faults in this study, estimates of minimum slip rates suggest these faults contribute significantly to the active deformation. Beanland (1995) compiled slip rate data for faults in the North Island Dextral Fault Belt (Fig. 1), and estimated a cumulative dextral slip rate of c.21 mm/yr across the southernmost North Island, a rate confirmed by Van Dissen & Berryman (1996). Faults in the forearc north of the Wellington area have been less intensely studied, and there are fewer data; however, Beanland (1995) suggested decreasing dextral slip northward from c.8 mm/yr across the Alfredton region to <2 mm/yr at the north coast, with most of that slip occurring on the Wellington-Mohaka-Ruahine system. The Alfredton Fault had estimated rates of 1-3 mm/yr (Beanland 1995) and 2.5 mm/yr (Kelsey et al. 1995) and the entire East Puketoi Fault Zone (including the Waipukaka Fault) was estimated at <1 mm/yr (Beanland 1995). The minimum rates estimated in this study--3 mm/yr on the Alfredton Fault and 1 mm/yr on the Waipukaka Fault--represent significant additions to the slip rate budget in the region, and indicate that further work needs to be done to understand the distribution of slip rates on the many faults of the forearc. A newly formed fault in the forearc The Waipukaka Fault may be a newly forming fault in a region in which older faults are no longer favorably oriented. Cumulative strike-slip on the faults in this study does not exceed a few hundred metres, suggesting recent initiation and/or low slip rates. Wesnousky (1988) described a seismological evolution of strike-slip faults which suggests that faults with more cumulative offset have fewer geometric irregularities. Kelsey et al. (1995) presented evidence for the young nature of strike-slip displacement on the Alfredton Fault (<0.5 Ma) when other 30 faults to the west were abandoned; they suggested this change in deformation is related to >10° clockwise rotation of the Wairarapa region with respect to more westerly parts of the Australian plate. The Waipukaka Fault and other faults in the East Puketoi zone strike more northerly than older northeast-striking faults, suggesting that in this area a vertical-axis rotation may be important in causing misorientation. There is also paleomagnetic and geodetic evidence for clockwise rotation at a rate of c.7-8°/m.y. of the Hikurangi margin in Quaternary time (Walcott 1984; Lamb 1988; Beanland 1995). Perhaps the continual rotation prevents long, continuous faults from forming, and that there has not been enough time for the currently active faults to have coalesced since the older faults were abandoned. CONCLUSIONS Fieldwork and paleoseismicity studies on several of the major faults within the 1934 MM9 isoseismal region indicate that the major faults in the area, including the Alfredton, Saunders Road, Waitawhiti, and Waipukaka Faults, are dextral-reverse faults with single-event slip ranging c.3-7 m and are capable of generating surface-rupture earthquakes of M≥7. Geomorphologic characteristics suggest surface rupture occurred on each of these faults within the last few thousand years, and along the Alfredton and Waipukaka Faults in historical time. Estimated minimum lateral slip rates indicate the Alfredton and Waipukaka Faults represent a significant component of upper plate dextral shear. Paleoseismology studies using trenching and 14C dating, combined with historical data, provide insight into the rupture history of the Alfredton and Waipukaka Faults. Along the Alfredton Fault, data from trenches reveal evidence for the last two surface rupture earthquakes in the last c.2900 yr, with the most recent event occurring after AD1750. Analysis of published and unpublished historical evidence suggests the Alfredton Fault ruptured in 1855 during the M 8.2 Wairarapa earthquake, and extends the c.100 km rupture of the Wairarapa Fault during this earthquake north and east across a 6 km wide right step for an additional c.20 km. Along the Waipukaka Fault, two trenches reveal evidence for 3 surface-rupturing earthquakes in the last 31 2800 yr, and one event at >8000 yr. The youngest event is interpreted to postdate a charcoal horizon that contains European historical artifacts. Analysis of historical evidence suggests the most recent earthquake occurred in 1934. Future earthquakes of M>7 are possible in the region, but recurrence intervals are not constrained. However, the recency of events combined with estimates of slip rate suggest long recurrence intervals (thousands of years) and a fairly low probability of an earthquake within the next century, at least on the Alfredton and Waipukaka Faults. It is important to determine whether the Saunders Road Fault has experienced historic (or young) surface rupture because this fault could have a slip deficit relative to nearby faults that might indicate increased seismic hazard. Estimation of seismic hazard is made more difficult in the region because the known fault scarp lengths appear too short to have accommodated the estimated single-event displacements. Faults in the region are highly segmented, disconnected, and probably structurally and geometrically immature. A component of seismic slip may not result in surface rupture, and geometric discontinuities at the surface may not be significant barriers to rupture propagation. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS New Zealand EQC Research Foundation Project 97-320 provided financial support for this research. We thank Gaye Downes, Diane Doser, and Terry Webb for providing unpublished data, and helpful discussion, and Pilar Villamor for help with trench logging. We also thank the Percys and Hendricksens for permission to trench on their properties. ERS also wishes to thank the Percys for providing lodging and hospitality during her stay in Wairarapa, and gratefully acknowledges the University of Otago Geology Department for providing a William Evans Visiting Fellowship to partially support her travel to and stay in New Zealand. 32 REFERENCES CITED Bagnall, A. G. 1976: Wairarapa - an historical excursion. Masterton, New Zealand, Hedley's Bookshop, Ltd. Barka, A. A.; Kadinsky-Cade, K. 1988: Strike-slip fault geometry in Turkey and its influence on earthquake activity. Tectonics 7: 663-684. Barnes, P. M.; Mercier de Lépinay, B. 1997: Rates and mechanics of rapid frontal accretion along the very obliquely convergent southern Hikurangi margin, New Zealand. Journal of Geophysical Research 102: 24931-24952. Barnes, P. M.; Mercier de Lépinay, B.; Collot, J.-Y.; Delteil, J.; Audru, J.-C. 1998: Strain partitioning in the transition area between oblique subduction and continental collision, Hikurangi margin, New Zealand. Tectonics 17: 534-557. Beanland, S. 1995: The North Island Dextral Fault Belt, Hikurangi Subduction Margin, New Zealand. Unpublished Ph.D. Thesis, lodged in the library, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand. Beanland, S.; Haines, J. 1998: A kinematic model of active deformation in the North Island, New Zealand, determined from geological strain rates. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 41: 311-324. Beanland, S.; Melhuish, A.; Nicol, A.; Ravens, J. 1998: Structure and deformational history of the inner forearc region, Hikurangi subduction margin, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 41: 325-342. Berryman, K. R.; Beanland, S. 1990: Reconnaissance of epicentral area of May 13, 1990 "Weber 2" earthquake, Dannevirke Distric. DSIR New Zealand Geological Survey EDS Immediate report 90/5: 1-12. Berryman, K. R.; Cowan, H. 1993: Manawatu-Wanganui Region Earthquake Hazard Analysis. Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Client Report 333902/A: 30 p. Cashman, S. M.; Kelsey, H. M.; Erdman, C. F.; Cutten, H. N. C.; Berryman, K. R. 1992: Strain partitioning between structural domains in the forearc of the Hikurangi Subduction Zone, New Zealand. Tectonics 11: 242-257. Darby, D.; Beaven, J. 2001: Evidence from GPS measurements for contemporary interplate coupling on the southern Hikurangi subduction thrust and for partitioning of strain in the upper plate. Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 30,881-30,892. Darby, D. J.; Meertens, C. M. 1995: Terrestrial and GPS measurements of deformation across the Taupo back arc and Hikurangi forearc regions in New Zealand. Journal of Geophysical Research 100: 8221-8232. 33 Delteil, J.; Morgans, H. E. G.; Raine, J. I.; Field, B. D.; Cutten, H. N. C. 1996: Early Miocene thin-skinned tectonics and wrench faulting in the Pongaroa district, Hikurangi margin, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 39: 271-282. DeMets, C.; Gordon, R. G.; Argus, D. F.; Stein, S. 1994: Effects of recent revisions to the geomagnetic reversal time scale on estimates of current plate motion. Geophysical Research Letters 21: 2191-2194. Doser, D. I.; Webb, T. H. 2003: Source parameters of large historical (1917-1961) earthquakes, North Island, New Zealand. Geophysical Journal International 152: 795-832. Downes, G. L. 1995: Atlas of isoseismal maps of New Zealand earthquakes. Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Monograph 11: Lower Hutt, New Zealand. Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Limited. 304 p. Downes, G.; Dowrick, D.; Smith, E.; Berryman, K. 1999: The 1934 Pahiatua earthquake sequence: analysis of observational and instrumental data. Bulletin of the New Zealand National Society for Earthquake Engineering 32: 221-245. Downes, G. L.; Dowrick, D. J.; Van Dissen, R. J.; Taber, J. J.; Hancox, G. T.; Smith, E. G. C. 2001: The 1942 Wairarapa, New Zealand, earthquakes: Analysis of Observational and instrumental data. Bulletin of the New Zealand National Society for Earthquake Engineering 34: 125-157. Downes, G. L.; McGinty, P. 2001: New insights on old New Zealand earthquakes: Was the 1942 Mw 7.2 Wairarapa earthquake triggered by the 1934 Mw 7.4 Pahiatua earthquake? Seismological Research Letters 72: 266-267. Dowrick, D. J.; Rhoades, D. A. 1998: Magnitudes of New Zealand earthquakes, 1901-1993. Bulletin of the New Zealand National Society for Earthquake Engineering 31: 260-280. Dowrick, D. J.; Smith, E. C. G. 1990: Surface wave magnitudes of some New Zealand earthquakes 1901-1988. Bulletin of the New Zealand National Society for Earthquake Engineering 23: 190-204. Edmonds, J. 1987: Alfredton, The School and The People. Carterton, Roydhouse Publishing (for the Alfredton School Commitee). 347 p. Ghose, S.; Mellors, R. J.; Korjenkov, A. M.; Hamburger, M. W.; Pavlis, T. L.; Pavlis, G. L.; Omuraliev, M.; Mamyrov, E.; Muraliev, A. R. 1997: The Ms=7.3 1992 Suusamyr, Kyrgyzstan, earthquake in the Tien Shan; 2. Aftershock focal mechanisms and surface deformation. Bulletin Seismological Society of America 87: 23-38. 34 Grapes, R.; Downes, G. 1997: The 1855 Wairarapa, New Zealand, earthquake-Analysis of historical data. Bulletin of the New Zealand National Society for Earthquake Engineering 40: 271-368. Grapes, R.; Wellman, H. 1988: The Wairarapa fault. Wellington, N.Z., Research School of Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington. Geology Board of Studies Publication 4. Hanks, T.; Kanamori, H. 1979: A moment-magnitude scale. Journal of Geophysical Research 84: 2348-2352. Henderson, J. 1933: Geological aspects of the Hawke's Bay earthquakes. New Zealand Journal of Science and Technology 15: 38-75. Henderson, J. 1936: Report of Director. Extract from the Annual Report of the Department of Scientific and Industrial Research, 1935-36, 30th Annual Report: 1. Hull, A. G. 1990: Tectonics of the 1931 Hawke's Bay earthquake. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 33: 309-320. Kelsey, H. M.; Cashman, S. M.; Beanland, S.; Berryman, K. R. 1995: Structural evolution along the inner forearc of the obliquely convergent Hikurangi margin, New Zealand. Tectonics 14: 1-18. Kingma, J. T. 1962: Sheet 11--Dannevirke. Geological map of New Zealand. 1:250,000. Wellington, New Zealand. Department of Scientific and Industrial Research. Kingma, J. T. 1967: Sheet 12--Wellington. Geological map of New Zealand. 1:250,000. Wellington, New Zealand. Department of Scientific and Industrial Research. Lamarche, G.; Beanland, S.; Ravens, J. 1995: Deformation style and history of the Eketahuna region, Hikurangi forearc, New Zealand, from shallow seismic reflection data. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 38: 105-115. Lamb, S. H. 1988: Tectonic rotations about vertical axes during the last 4 Ma in part of the New Zealand plate-boundary zone. Journal of Structural Geology 10: 875-893. Lee, J. M.; Begg, J. G. 2002: Geology of the Wairarapa area. Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences 1:250,000 geological map 11. 1 sheet +66 p. Lower Hutt, New Zealand. Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Limited. Lensen, G. J. 1969: Sheet N153--Eketahuna. Late Quaternary Tectonic map of New Zealand. 1:63,360. Wellington, New Zealand. Department of Scientific and Industrial Research. Lyell, S. C. 1856: Sur les éffects du tremblement de terre du 23 Janvier, 1855 à la Nouvelle Zélande. Société Géologique de France, Bulletin Série 2, 13: 661-667. 35 McCallion, M. D. 1996: Late Quaternary displacements and tectonic geomorphology of the Alfredton fault zone east of Eketahuna, north Wairarapa. Unpublished BSc. (Hons) thesis, lodged in the library, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand. McCormac, F. G.; Hogg, A. G.; Higham, T. F. G.; Baillie, M. G. L.; Palmer, J. G.; Xiong, L.; Pilcher, J. R.; Brown, D.; Hoper, S. T. 1998: Variations of radiocarbon in tree rings: southern hemisphere offset preliminary results. Radiocarbon 40: 1153-1159. McGinty, P.; Darby, D.; Haines, J. 2001: Earthquake triggering in the Hawke's Bay, New Zealand region from 1931 to 1934 as inferred from elastic dislocation and static stress modelling. Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 26,593-26,604. Neef, G. 1974: Sheet N153--Eketahuna. Geological Map of New Zealand. 1:63,360. Wellington, New Zealand. Department of Scientific and Industrial Research. Neef, G. 1976: Probable faulting on a minor, reverse, bedding fault adjacent to the Alfredton fault, north Wairarapa, during the 1 August 1942 earthquake (note). New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 19: 737-742. Neef, G. 1984: Late Cenozoic and Early Quaternary stratigraphy of the Eketahuna District (N153). New Zealand Geological Survey Bulletin 96: 101. Neef, G. 1992: Geology of the Akitio area (1:50,000 metric sheet U25 BD, east), northeastern Wairarapa, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 35: 533-548. Neef, G. 1997a: Stratigraphy and structure of an outboard part of the forearc of the Hikurangi margin, North Wairarapa, New Zealand. Journal and Proceedings of the Royal Society of New South Wales 130: 1-24. Neef, G. 1997b: Stratigraphy, structural evolution, and tectonics of the northern part of the Tawhero Basin and adjacent areas, northern Wairarapa, North Island, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 40: 335-358. Ongley, M. 1934: Eketahuna Subdivision. Extract from the Annual Report of the Department of Scientific and Industrial Research, 1933-34, 28th Annual Report: 2-6. Ongley, M. 1934: Field notes on excursions to the area of the 1934 Pahiatua earthquake. Unpublished notes, Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences, New Zealand. Ongley, M. 1935: Eketahuna Subdivision. Annual Report of the Department of Scientific and Industrial Research, 1934-35, 29th Annual Report: 1-6. Ongley, M. 1943a: Surface trace of the 1855 Earthquake. Trans. Roy. Soc. New Zealand 73: 8489. 36 Ongley, M. 1943b: Wairarapa earthquake of 24th June, 1942, together with map showing surface traces of faults recently active. New Zealand Journal of Science and Technology 67-78. Pillans, B.; McGlone, M.; Palmer, A.; Mildenhall, D.; Alloway, B.; Berger, G. 1993: The last glacial maximum in central and southern North Island, New Zealand: A paleo-environmental reconstruction using the Kawakawa tephra Formation as a chronostratigraphic marker. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 101: 283-304. Reyners, M. 1998: Plate coupling and the hazard of large subduction thrust earthquakes at the Hikurangi subduction zone, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 41: 343-354. Ridd, M. F. 1967: Miocene transcurrent movement on the Pongaroa Fault, Wairarapa, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics 10: 209-216. Rubin, C. M. 1996: Systematic underestimation of earthquake magnitudes from large intracontinental reverse faults: Historical ruptures break across segment boundaries. Geology 24: 989-992. Schermer, E. R.; Van Dissen, R.; Berryman, K. R. 1998: In search of the source of the 1934 Pahiatua earthquake. Final report, Earthquake Commission research project 97/320: 53 p. Schwartz, D. P.; Sibson, R. H. 1989: Introduction to workshop on fault segmentation and controls of rupture initiation and termination. In: Schwartz, D. P.; Sibson, R. H. ed. Fault segmentation and controls of rupture initiation and termination. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 89-314. Sieh, K. 1996: The repetition of large earthquake ruptures. National Academy of Science Proceedings 93: 3764-3771. Sieh, K.; Jones, L.; Hauksson, E.; Hudnut, K.; Eberhart-Phillips, D.; Heaton, T.; Hough, S.; Hutton, K.; Kanamori, H.; Lilje, A.; Lindvall, S.; McGill, S.; Mori, J.; Rubin, C.; Spotila, J.; Stock, J.; Thio, H. K.; Treiman, J.; Wernicke, B.; Zachariasen, J. 1993: Near-field investigations of the Landers earthquake sequence, April to July 1992. Science 260: 171-176. Smith, E. G. C.; Downes, G. L. 1997: Epicentres of large east coast North Island earthquakes, 1931-42. Pp. 25-27 In: Research Report '97, Wellington, New Zealand, Victoria Univ. of Wellington. Stirling, M.; Rhoades, D.; Berryman, K. 2002: Comparison of earthquake scaling relations derived from data of the instrumental and preinstrumental era. Bulletin Seismological Society of America 92: 812-830. Stuiver, M.; Reimer, P. J. 1993: Extended 14C database and revised CALIB radiocarbon calibration program. Radiocarbon 35: 215-230. 37 Van Dissen, R. J.; Berryman, K. R. 1996: Surface rupture earthquakes over the last ~1000 years in the Wellington region, New Zealand, and implications for ground shaking hazard. Journal of Geophysical Research 101: 5999-6019. Walcott, R. I. 1978: Geodetic strains and large earthquakes in the axial tectonic belt of North Island, New Zealand. Journal of Geophysical Research 83: 4419-4429. Walcott, R. I. 1984: The kinematics of the plate boundary zone through New Zealand: a comparison of short- and long-term deformations. Geophysical Journal Royal Astronomical Society 79: 613-633. Walcott, R. I. 1987: Geodetic strain and the deformational history of the North Island of New Zealand during the late Cainozoic. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series A: Mathematical and Physical Sciences 321: 163-181. Walcott, R. I. 1989: Paleomagnetically observed rotations along the Hikurangi margin of New Zealand. Pp. 459-471 In: Kissel, C.; Laj, C. ed. Paleomagnetic rotations and continental deformation, Dordrecht-Boston, Netherlands, D. Reidel Publishing Company. Webb, T. H.; Anderson, H. 1998: Focal mechanisms of large earthquakes in the North Island of New Zealand: slip partitioning at an oblique active margin. Geophysical Journal International 134: 40-86. Wells, D. L.; Coppersmith, K. J. 1994: New empirical relations among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement. Bulletin Seismological Society of America 84: 974-1002. Wesnousky, S. G. 1988: Seismological and structural evolution of strike-slip faults. Nature 335: 340-343. Whitta, B. 1990: Horoeka/Pukehinau/Maku Schools Jubilee 1900-1990. unpublished; held at Pongaroa Historical Society. Wilson, J. G. 1976: A history of Hawke's Bay. Wellington, New Zealand, A.H. & A.W. Reed Publishing. 38 Table 1 Historical North Island earthquakes, M≥6.5, depth ≤25km * Locality Wairarapa 1 Cape Turnagain Wairarapa 2 Hawke’s Bay Hawke’s Bay Wairoa Pahiatua Wairarapa 3 Date yyyymmdd lat 18550123 19040808 19170805 19310202 19310213 19320915 19340305 19420624 41.4†† 40.6 -40.8 -39.69 -39.43 -38.9 -40.51 -40.96 Epicentre† long 175.0†† 176.8§§ 176.0 176.73## 177.48## 177.6 176.29*** 175.67††† Depth§ Ms# 25 LC 20±9 15±3 16±3 8±4 12±5 12±6 6.7 6.6 7.8 7.3 6.9 7.6 7.2 Mw** 8.2 6.8-6.9 7.6 7.3-7.5 6.9 7.2-7.4 6.9-7.2 * List of earthquakes interpreted to be in the Australian plate. † Epicentres from Doser & Webb (2003), except †† Darby & Beanland (1992); §§ from intensity data (Downes 1995); ##Smith & Downes (1997), *** Downes et al. (1999); †††Downes et al. (2001). Typical errors on epicentre location are ±20km (Downes et al. 1999, 2001). § Depth from Doser & Webb (2003), except for 1855 (Darby & Beanland,1992) and 1904 (Downes 1995); LC=lower crustal. # Ms Surface wave magnitude from Dowrick & Rhoades (1998) except 1904 from Dowrick & Smith (1990). ** Mw Moment magnitude from Doser & Webb (2003) except 1855 from Darby & Beanland (1992). 39 Location, sample no.* Table 2. Summary of Radiocarbon Ages from trenches Calibrated age§ 13 14C age† Lab# cal BP) C % (yr BP) Sample material 1range 2range Alfredton Fault Golf course trenches Alf 1/3 2822±34 Alf 1/2 330±65 Alf 1/1 483±38 Alf 2/11 642±91 Alf 2/2 modern Alf 2/10 370±50 2950-2850 460-290 520-500 660-540 <200 480-310 2960-2780 510-0 540-470 690-510 <200 510-300 Percy trench Percy 1/2 Percy 1/3 Percy 1/6 460-290 520-340 310-0 510-0 540-310 470-0 -25.5 -26.4 -29.4 NZA 9094 wood (burned) NZA 9095 wood Wk-6261 wood (burned) Waipukaka Fault Hendricksen trenches Hend 1/2 710±130 Hend 1/4 7300±70 740-540 8170-7980 930-460 8290-7880 -27.4 -24.9 Wk-6262 Wk-6263 Hend 1/5 Hend 1/3 Modern 195±57 <200 290-0 <200 310-0 -26.8 -23.6 Hend 2/2 2762±57 2920-2780 2950-2750 -27.3 324±72 450±62 240±70 NZ 7896 NZ 7897 NZ 7899 NZ 7913 NZ 7898 Beta 54176 wood in fault sliver peat peat peat peat peat wood (root) wood (root or large branch) Wk-6264 wood (burnt) NZA 9096 wood (root) with bark NZA 9097 wood (fine material in organic soil) * For sample descriptions and locations, see text and trench logs. † Conventional radiocarbon age before present (AD 1950) calculated using a Libby half-life of 5568 yr, and corrected to 13C of -25%. Quoted error is ±1. § Calendar years before present (AD 1950) using calibration of Stuiver & Reimer (1993), and references therein), southern hemisphere correction of -27 radiocarbon years (McCormac et al. 1998), lab error multiplier of 1.217 for Wk samples and 1.0 for NZ and NZA samples. # Laboratory: Wk, University of Waikato Radiocarbon Dating Laboratory; NZ and NZA, Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Rafter Radiocarbon Laboratory; Beta, Beta Analytic dating laboratory. 40 Table 3. Interpretation of surface rupture events on the Waipukaka Fault Event Date Trench 1 Date Trench 2 designation (trench 1, units, faults (trench 2, units, faults cal BP) cal BP) Interpretation A (min. # events) a, most recent <200 Unit 4, fault B <100 yr Unit 1, faults B, C, bury artifacts b, >200 Unit 6, fault B? <2750-2950 cal Units 3, 4, 5, penultimate (reactivated in event BP fault A, bury a) sample 2/2 c ≤7880Unit 7, Fault A >2750-2950 cal ?Units 7, 8, 9 8290 BP (basement subsidence) Interpretation B (preferred # events) a, most recent <200 Unit 4, fault B <100 yr Unit 1, fault C, bury artifacts b, >200 Unit 6, fault B? Unit 3, fault B penultimate (reactivated in event a) c ≤7880Unit 7, Fault A c.2750-2950 cal Unit 5, fault A, 8290 BP bury sample 2/2 d >7880Units 8a, 8b, 9 Units 7, 8 8290 (basement subsidence, (reworked bedrock fissuring) colluvial wedge, basement subsidence) 41 Table 4. Calculation of moment magnitude (Mw) from inferred rupture characteristics Fault Rupture Max Slip Mw Mw Mw Mw Mw from length slip from from from slip from from moment (km (m) length length, length area (S)§ (M0)# (WC) † fresh (S) § area (S)§ scarp) m (WC)* Alfredton 17-20 4-7 6.2-6.8 7.2-7.6 6.6-7.2 6.4-7.4 6.9-7.3 1.1-3.4 Waipukaka 7-10 3-7 5.8-6.7 7.1-7.6 6.3-7.0 6.2-7.3 6.6-7.2 1.0-2.9 Waipukaka + Saunders Rd. 32-40 3-7 6.5-7.3 7.1-7.6 6.8-7.5 6.6-7.8 7.0-7.6 1.2-4.1 * Calculated using the rupture length and area given a depth range of 12-23 km from locations of historical earthquakes, and regressions of Wells & Coppersmith (1994) (WC) for strike-slip faults; for Waipukaka Fault, a range of average fault dips from 45-90 was used to calculate area. †Calculated from maximum dextral slip using regressions of Wells & Coppersmith (1994) (WC). §Calculated from rupture length and area and regressions of Stirling et al. (2002) (S). #Calculated from M0=µAs, and Mw=(log M0-16.05)/1.5, with µ=3x1011dyne-cm-2, A=area; s=slip (Hanks & Kanamori 1979). 42 Figure Captions Fig. 1 A, The Pacific-Australian plate boundary in New Zealand, with relative plate motion from DeMets et al. (1994). Shaded box shows the area of main figure B. B, Major active faults of the North Island shown as bold lines, with total dextral slip rate in mm/yr (bold numbers) for several NW-SE transects across North Island Dextral Fault Belt (from Beanland 1995). Location abbreviations: W-Wellington, PB-Palliser Bay, M-Masterton, D-Dannevirke, HB-Hawke Bay. Fault abbreviations: WE-Wellington, WA-Wairarapa, A-Alfredton, MA-Makuri, P-Poukawa, MO-Mohaka, RU-Ruahine. Hikurangi deformation front shown with teeth on upper plate of subduction zone. Shaded area indicates Wairarapa region. Historical earthquakes with Mw ≥6.5 and depth <25km from Downes et al. (1999, 2001); epicentre location errors are ± c. 20 km. See Table 1 for details of earthquakes. Fig. 2 Map of major Holocene fault traces in the study area. Dash-dot line shows the MM9 isoseismal for the 1934 “Pahiatua” earthquake from Downes et al. (1999). Boxes indicate location of more detailed maps (Figs. 4, 8). Grid indicates NZMS 260 sheet boundaries. Fig. 3 Aerial photographs of faults. White arrows show scarp locations. A Portion of photo 894/26, located on Fig. 4, Alfredton Fault, Percy trench area. B Portion of photo 892/35, located on Fig. 4, Alfredton Fault, golf course area. C Portion of photo 883/46, located on Fig. 8, Waipukaka Fault trench area. D Portion of photo 892/57, located on Fig. 2, Waitawhiti fault. Note the more subdued nature of the scarp compared to those in A-C. Fig. 4 Detailed map of Alfredton Fault with slip observations measured in this study or confirmed from previous work (Lensen 1969; Beanland 1995; McCallion 1996). As discussed in text, scarps shown as solid lines are likely Holocene in age. Field measurements of offset features are typically accurate to 1-2 m horizontal and 0.5 –1 m vertical , see Schermer et al. (1998) for details. Location of trench sites shown by black boxes. Grid from NZMS 260 sheet T25, showing 5 km spacing. 43 Fig. 5 Histograms of dextral offsets. Data from Lensen (1969), Beanland (1995), McCallion (1996), and this study. Errors on measurements are typically 1-2m horizontal and 0.5-1m vertical. The approximate single-event displacement on each fault is inferred from the smallest measured offset that produces a peak on the histogram, e.g. 4-7 m on the Alfredton Fault and 4-5 m on the Waitawhiti fault. Fig. 6 Trench logs of Alfredton Fault at the golf course site; see Figs. 3b, 4 for location. Logs shows NE wall of ALF-1 and SW wall of ALF-2. Trench 1 is 120 m south of trench 2. Sample ages are 2 range in calibrated years before 1950 (cal BP). Sample 2/11 was collected from the opposite (NE) wall of ALF-2. Fig. 7 Percy trench log. Sample ages are 2 range in calibrated years before 1950 (cal BP). Fig. 8 Detailed map of Waipukaka Fault and other nearby East Puketoi faults. As discussed in text, scarps shown as solid lines are likely Holocene in age. Field measurements of offset features are typically accurate to 1-2 m horizontal and 0.5 –1 m vertical , see Schermer et al. (1998) for details. Location of trenches shown in Fig. 3c and Fig. 9 (box). Grid from NZMS 260 sheet U24. Fig. 9A Log of north wall of trench Hendricksen 1. Sample ages are 2 range in calibrated years before 1950 (cal BP). Fig. 9B Log of south wall of trench Hendricksen 2. Sample ages are 2 range in calibrated years before 1950 (cal BP). Fig. 10. Map showing historical ruptures in the study area. Thin lines show faults mapped in bedrock (Neef 1997b; Lee & Begg, 2002) thick black lines show Holocene fault scarps, and thick grey line shows inferred historical rupture extent. Other symbols as in Fig. 2. 44