APPENDIX A. Population characteristics and number of 1 × 1 m quadrats in which
demographic data were collected for Primula farinosa and vegetation cover recorded. Soil
disturbance was due to repeated flooding and drought, freezing and thawing. Mean
vegetation cover in the quadrats (N = 3-9), and the mean vegetation height and soil depth
(N = 40) recorded in 2007 are given.
Population
Tranekärr
Dröstorp 1
Dröstorp 2
56°35.1’ N
16°31.3’ E
56°34.8’ N
16°32.9’ E
56°35.2’ N
16°33.3’ E
9
6
3
Frequent
Frequent
Infrequent
Cattle and
Cattle and
sheep
sheep
Total
48
15
98
Grasses and sedges
26
11
69
Herbs
5
2
24
Bryophytes
17
2
5
Mean vegetation height (cm)
4
2
4
Mean soil depth (cm)
6
5
17
Location
Number of quadrats
Soil disturbance
Grazing management
Cattle
Vegetation cover (%)
APPENDIX B. Life-history transition matrices for each habitat state and Primula farinosa population. In the matrix models, we considered four
stage-classes: seeds, seedlings, vegetative rosettes, and flowering rosettes (Fig. 1). The Tranekärr and Dröstorp 2 populations had six possible
habitat states corresponding to year-specific life-history transition 2000 – 2006, whereas the Dröstorp 1 population had four corresponding to
2002 – 2006. Transition probabilities are based on an estimated seed survival of 0.60. See Methods for details.
Transition
Stage class
Tranekärr
Seed
Seedling
Dröstorp 1
Veg. ros. Flow. ros.
Seed
Seedling
Dröstorp 2
Veg. ros. Flow. ros.
Seed
Seedling
Veg. ros. Flow. ros.
2000-2001
Seed
Seedling
Veg. ros.
Flow. ros.
0.531
0.0690
0
0
0
0
0.209
0.0947
0
0
0
0
45.6
5.93
0.0370
0.850
0.591
0.00900
0
0
0
0
0.310
0.418
0
0
0.0984
0.110
62.7
0.955
0.116
0.389
2001-2002
Seed
Seedling
Veg. ros.
Flow. ros.
0.590
0.0102
0
0
0
0
0.189
0.115
0
0
0.0908
0.223
126
2.17
0.210
0.488
0.585
0.0150
0
0
0
0
0.296
0.0454
0
0
0.0882
0.166
55.4
1.42
0.604
0.216
2002-2003
Seed
Seedling
Veg. ros.
Flow. ros.
0.574
0.0258
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
77.2
3.47
0
0
0.544
0.0564
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
54.8
5.69
0
0
0.598
0.00186
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
18.8
0.0585
0
0
2003-2004
Seed
Seedling
Veg. ros.
Flow. ros.
0.540
0.0600
0
0
0
0
0.535
0.00241
-
-
0.486
0.114
0
0
0
0
0.426
0
-
-
0.581
0.00192
0
0
0
0
0.818
0
-
-
2004-2005
Seed
Seedling
Veg. ros.
Flow. ros.
0.5742
0.0258
0
0
0
0
0.139
0.00660
0
0
0.0277
0.0138
54.0
2.43
0.130
0.0648
0.360
0.240
0
0
0
0
0.482
0
0
0
0.0168
0.0100
-
0.578
0.0216
0
0
0
0
0.320
0.107
0
0
0.103
0.0230
-
2005-2006
Seed
Seedling
Veg. ros.
Flow. ros.
0.589
0.0108
0
0
0
0
0.133
0.0220
0
0
0.0911
0.0236
49.0
0.898
0.0241
0.0258
0.432
0.168
0
0
0
0
0.312
0.0116
0
0
0.0506
0.0506
49.2
19.2
0.324
0.0100
0.571
0.0294
0
0
0
0
0.353
0.0667
0
0
0.0273
0.0767
17.3
0.894
0.422
0.156
APPENDIX C. Habitat transition matrices for the three Primula farinosa populations Tranekärr, Dröstorp 1 and Dröstorp 2 under three different
frequencies of drought years. The three habitat categories disturbance (Dist), recovery (Rec), and mature (Mat) are indicated. In simulations, the
habitat state represented by the transition 2002-2003 occurred with a probability of 1 / 6 ≈ 0.17, or with a probability that was half that or twice
as high. The other transition probabilities were generated based on the number of recovery states observed before any flowering plants appeared
after disturbance in each of the three study populations. Habitat states correspond to the life-history transition matrices in Appendix B.
Dist
02-03
Rec
03-04
Tranekärr
Mat
Mat
00-01 01-02
Mat
04-05
Mat
05-06
Dist
02-03
Dröstorp 1
Rec
Rec
03-04 04-05
Mat
05-06
Dist
02-03
Rec
03-04
Dröstorp 2
Rec
Mat
04-05 00-01
Mat
Mat
01-02 05-06
Historical frequency
of drought years
02-03
03-04
00-01
01-02
04-05
05-06
0.17
0.83
0
0
0
0
0.17
0
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.17
0
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.17
0
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.17
0
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.17
0
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
02-03
03-04
04-05
05-06
0.17
0.83
0
0
0.17
0
0.83
0
0.17
0
0
0.83
0.17
0
0
0.83
02-03
03-04
04-05
00-01
01-02
05-06
0.17
0.83
0
0
0
0
0.17
0
0.83
0
0
0
0.17
0
0
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.17
0
0
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.17
0
0
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.17
0
0
0.28
0.28
0.28
50 % of historical
frequency of
drought years
02-03
03-04
00-01
01-02
04-05
05-06
0.085
0.92
0
0
0
0
0.085
0
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.085
0
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.085
0
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.085
0
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.085
0
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
02-03
03-04
04-05
05-06
0.085
0.92
0
0
0.085
0
0.92
0
0.085
0
0
0.92
0.085
0
0
0.92
02-03
03-04
04-05
00-01
01-02
05-06
0.085
0.92
0
0
0
0
0.085
0
0.92
0
0
0
0.085
0
0
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.085
0
0
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.085
0
0
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.085
0
0
0.31
0.31
0.31
Doubled frequency
of drought years
02-03
03-04
00-01
01-02
04-05
05-06
0.34
0.66
0
0
0
0
0.34
0
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.34
0
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.34
0
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.34
0
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.34
0
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
02-03
03-04
04-05
05-06
0.34
0.66
0
0
0.34
0
0.66
0
0.34
0
0
0.66
0.34
0
0
0.66
02-03
03-04
04-05
00-01
01-02
05-06
0.34
0.66
0
0
0
0
0.34
0
0.66
0
0
0
0.34
0
0
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.34
0
0
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.34
0
0
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.34
0
0
0.22
0.22
0.22
APPENDIX D. Stochastic elasticity of the three components of regeneration as a function of the
modeled frequency of drought years in the Primula farinosa populations Tranekärr, Dröstorp
1, and Dröstorp 2. Seed survival contributed most to regeneration elasticity, and its
contribution increased with increasing frequency of drought years. Total regeneration
elasticity is the sum of the three other elasticities shown.
Seed production
0.16
0.12
Tranekärr
Dröstorp 1
Dröstorp 2
0.08
0.04
0.00
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.8
Seed survival
0.6
Tranekärr
Dröstorp 1
Dröstorp 2
Stochastic elasticity
0.4
0.2
0.0
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.16
Germination
0.12
Tranekärr
Dröstorp 1
Dröstorp 2
0.08
0.04
0.00
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
1.0
Total regeneration
0.8
Tranekärr
Dröstorp 1
Dröstorp 2
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Drought year frequency
Appendix E. Stochastic elasticity of the three components of regeneration as a function of
modeled seed survival in the Primula farinosa populations Tranekärr, Dröstorp 1, and
Dröstorp 2. The seed survival component contributed most to regeneration elasticity, and its
contribution increased with increasing seed survival. Total regeneration elasticity is the sum
of the three other elasticities shown.
Seed production
0.16
0.12
Tranekärr
Dröstorp 1
Dröstorp 2
0.08
0.04
0.00
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.0
Seed survival
Stochastic elasticity
0.8
0.6
Tranekärr
Dröstorp 1
Dröstorp 2
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0.16
Germination
0.12
Tranekärr
Dröstorp 1
Dröstorp 2
0.08
0.04
0.00
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.0
Total regeneration
0.8
0.6
Tranekärr
Dröstorp 1
Dröstorp 2
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Seed survival
1