Draft
Appendix F.4- 2013 Resource Alternatives
Resource and Transmission Expansion Alternatives
The Work Groups created four resource addition scenarios for 2013. The scenarios
reflect a range of resource development outcomes, spanning utility integrated resource
plans (IRPs) to scenarios that capitalize on the region’s abundant, low cost fuels (e.g.,
wind and Powder River Basin coal) for purposes of export to West Coast and Southwest
markets. The Work Groups then developed transmission solutions to support these
generation resource scenarios. Through an iterative process, the economic evaluation of
these scenarios, referred to as Alternatives 1-4, set the stage for two sets of transmission
expansion recommendations (Recommendations 1-2).
Alternative 1 reflects the IRPs of Load Serving Entities (LSEs) in the Rocky Mountain
region, where available. Alternative 2 is a “quasi” regional IRP that targets development
of Powder River Basin (PRB) coal and wind resources. Both Alternatives 1 and 2
include generation additions in the Rocky Mountain region of 3,900 MW to meet the
forecast load growth in the Rocky Mountain region: but the generation assumed in
Alternative 2 would be more dependent on transmission expansions to be viable.
Alternative 3 includes the resources in Alternative 2, and adds 3,900 MW of PRB coal
and wind resources for export to West Coast and Southwest markets. Alternative 4
includes the resources in Alternative 3, and adds yet another 3,900 MW increment of
PRB coal and wind to double the export supply. Alternatives 3 and 4 are “export”
scenarios which add resources in the Rocky Mountain region to supply west-wide
markets and include 7,800 MW and 11,700 MW of new generation in the Rocky
Mountain region, respectively.
The following is a detailed discussion on each alternative, what is included, its purpose,
and the results of the study.
Appendix F
43
Draft
Alternative 1
Alternative 1 reflects the generation proposed by the Load Serving Entities (LSEs) in the
RMATS region that have published integrated resource plans. These plans tend to
emphasize the development of new gas-fired generation close to load centers and thus
represent a scenario with minimal new transmission additions. Figure F.4.1 displays the
resources added for this alternative. The new generation investment assumed in this
alternative is expected to be $6 billion.
225 Wind
250 Wind
575 Coal
125 Wind
50 Gas
925 Wind
250 Wind
200 Coal
1250 Coal
575 Coal
525 Gas
210 Gas
800 Wind
Figure F.4. 1: Alternative 1 resource additions
Without new transmission build, certain paths will become congested. Figure F.4.2
illustrates the top six Rocky Mountain area paths that are congested with generation
added and without new transmission build. The focus of Alternative 1 is to serve Rocky
Mountain area load and follow the individual companies’ Integrated Resource Plans as
much as possible. After discussion of the resource additions TAWG recommended one
transmission upgrade: a 345kV line that starts at Miners, Wyoming and extends to Ben
Lomond, Utah. This line is would integrate large amounts of wind in Wyoming to the
load center in Salt Lake City. This is shown in Figure F.4.3. The cost of this
transmission upgrade is approximately $303 million. Without this investment, the Bridger
West interface would be congested 30% of all hours and has an opportunity cost $61,729
of not increasing the path by 1 MW for an entire year. What this graphic does not show
is that without additional transmission built, the generators at Jim Bridger and Naughton
will cycle excessively. In other words, the generation level is going up and down at rate
the plant is not designed for.
Appendix F
44
3,900 MW added to Rocky Mtn. States
%
Montana
5%
Percent of Time at Binding Limit
Interface Name
Opportunity Cost/Savings ($)
Montana – NW
$9,136
Idaho
Alternative 1- no transmission additions
Draft
Wyoming
6%
Utah
14%
Path C
$19,322
30%
Bridger West
$61,729
West of Naughton
$40,571
9%
Bonanza West
$17,736
40%
TOT 2C
$74,557
Colorado
Figure F.4. 2: Alternative 1 top six congested Rocky Mountain Area interfaces without new
transmission build
Jim Bridger
Ben Lomond
Naughton
Miners
Added 345 kV Line
Figure F.4. 3: Alternative 1 recommended transmission upgrades
Appendix F
45
Draft
Table F.4.1 outlines the results of the three analyses conducted for Alternative 1. The first
analysis estimates the minimal amount of production costs for the Western Interconnect
given the existing 20131 and Alternative 1 resources. This is done by eliminating
transmission constraints on the system. Without transmission constraints, the model
dispatches units on a least cost basis, which result in the optimal dispatch of plants. The
results of this study are found in Column A of this table. Column A serves as a
benchmark to measure incremental production cost savings as new transmission lines are
added. This analysis demonstrates the difference in potential maximum savings and
estimated savings from the transmission additions studied.
The second analysis estimates the Western Interconnect production costs with existing
2013 and Alternative 1 resources given the 2013 transmission system 2. The results of
this study are found in Column B. The delta in overall production costs between Column
A and B is $163 million, which represents the maximum amount of production cost
savings that additional transmission would provide.
The third analysis, which includes recommended transmission upgrades outlined in
Figure F.4.3 for the Rocky Mountain Area, provides an additional $15 million of
production cost savings, compared to not building new transmission. The remaining
$148 million of benefits could be realized by solving for transmission congestion in other
areas of the Western Interconnect.
Table F.4.2 outlines the change in interface loading before and after transmission lines
are added to the Alternative 1 generation levels. For example, the Bridger West interface
was fully loaded for 30% of the hours without new transmission upgrades and is loaded
only 4% of the hours when the 345kV line is added between Miners and Ben Lomond.
The opportunity cost, also known as a shadow price, represents the amount of annual
savings (or cost to the system) of adding an additional MW of capacity to the interface.
In the case of the Bridger West, the opportunity cost of relieving/adding an additional
MW of capacity moves from $61,729 to $5,801.
Figures B.4.4 and B.4.5 are before and after contour maps that show average July
Locational Marginal Prices (LMPs). The color indicates the LMP- red being higher, blue
being lower. In the before map (Figure F.4.4), LMPs are lower in Wyoming and
Montana than in the after map (Figure F.4.5). This is because without the Miners to Ben
Lomond transmission upgrade, low cost resources are bottled up, causing islands of low
and high prices. In the after map (Figure F.4.5), prices are relatively level across the
areas because most of the congestion is removed.
1
Existing 2013 resources include all plants expected to be in service in 2013 and gas plants added outside
the Rocky Mountain area for this analysis. These resources were identified in the SSG-WI process’s “All
Gas Scenario”.
2
Existing 2013 transmission system is the current transmission configuration in addition to the STEP
project upgrades in California and Arizona and the Potential Projects identified in the 2008 Base Case.
Appendix F
46
Draft
Table F.4. 1: Alternative 1 area production costs (dollars are in millions)
A
B
C
Generation added Generation added and Both generation and
with no transmisson no new transmission
new transmission
constraints
added
ID
Area
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
18
19
20
22
23
24
25
26
28
29
30
32
33
New Mexico
Arizona
Nevada
WAPA- LC
Mexico
Imperial
San Diego
So. California
LADWP
IPP
PG AND E
Northwest
BC Hydro
Aquila
Alberta
Idaho- West
Montana- West
Sierra
Wyoming- Central
Bonanza
Utah- North
Utah- South
Colorado- East
Colorado- West
Black Hills
Laramie River Station
Jim Bridger
Broadview
Colstrip- Crossover
Total
470
4,295
1,215
514
943
15
647
1,016
202
275
2,813
2,188
553
34
1,743
0
0
253
68
69
173
589
911
200
66
83
307
17
165
449
3,958
1,192
448
880
18
780
1,493
304
274
3,359
2,191
540
32
1,433
0
0
235
62
68
163
524
732
200
58
83
331
17
165
449
3,934
1,145
453
879
18
787
1,510
290
274
3,315
2,202
540
32
1,434
2
0
235
65
68
162
538
783
200
60
83
334
17
165
19,826
19,989
19,974
Table F.4. 2: Alternative 1 top six congested interfaces before and after transmission is added
Generation added and no
new transmission
Interface
TOT 2C
Bridger West
West of Naughton
Path C
Bonanza West
Montana - Northwest
Appendix F
Opportunity
Cost ($)
74,557
61,729
40,571
19,322
17,736
9,136
% Time at
Binding
Limit
40%
30%
14%
6%
9%
5%
Both generation and new
transmission added
Opportunity
Cost ($)
55,894
5,801
2,015
5,408
11,758
12,589
% Time at
Binding
Limit
35%
4%
1%
2%
8%
9%
47
Draft
PEACE RIVER
PEACE CANYON
PCN500
RUTH LAKE
MITSUE
KENNEDY
KDY
5CX3
LITTLE
SMOKY
LOUISE
CREEK
PRINCE RUPERT
WILLISTON
TELKWA
SKEENA
GLENANNAN
N. BARRHEAD
WHITEFISH
LAKE
DEERLAND
SAGITAWAH
N. CALDER
KITMAT
BARLOW
MARGUERITE
LAKE
LAMOUREUX
WABAMUN
CLOVERBAR
SUNDANCE
KEMANO
EAST EDMONTON
BICKERDIKE
ELLERSLIE
KEEPHILLS
BRAZEAU
SODA
CREEK
BATTLE
BAT RV79RIVER
METISKOW
BENALTO
MICA
100 MILE
HOUSE
M ETI S644
RED
DEER
KELLY
LAKE
SHEERNESS
REVELSTOKE
BRIDGE
RIVER
JANET
SARCEE
ASHTON
CREEK
SAVONA
LANGDON
EMPRESS
WARE
JTN.
JENNER
W. BROOKS
CHEEKYE
GOLD RIVER
NICOLA
MALASPINA
MERIDIAN
INVERMERE
CLAYBURN
NATAL
ROSEDALE
INGLEDOW
DUNSMUIR
PEIGAN
ARNOTT
CUSTER
L E G E N D:
N. LETHBRIDGE
NELWAY
CHIEF
JOE
MONROE
345KV
+-500KV
DC
500KV
CRANBROOK
SELKIRK
WANETA
WHALEACH
BOUNDARY
SAHTLAM
GRAND COULEE
230KV
115-161KV
HUNGRY HORSE
LIBBY
ECHO
LAKE
CAB
GORGE
ROCKY
REACH
NOXON
BELL
HOT
SPRINGS
RAVER
GREAT
FALLS
BENEWAH
SCHULTZ
OLYMPIA
PAUL /
CENTRALIA
TAFT
VANTAGE
MOSCOW
MIDWAY
LOW
MON
HANFORD
N
LEWISTON
LIT
GOOSE
ASHE
ROSS
THE
DALLES
KEELER
MILES CITY
DC TIE
GARRISON
LOLO
CUSTER
WALLA
WALLA
JOHN DAY
OSTRANDER
COLSTRIP
ANACONDA
BILLINGS
CROSSOVER
ENTERPRISE
SLATT
HELLS
CANYON
LAGRANDE
BOARDMAN
BUCKLEY
BROADVIEW
TOWNSEND
McNARY
(1169 MW)
ROUNDUP
PEARL
HATWAI
LOW
GRANITE
ALLSTON
OVANDO
DWORSHAK
BEAVER
YELLOWTAIL
OXBOW
BROWNLEE
SHERIDAN
PETERSON
FLATS
MARION
GRIZZLY
DILLON
WYODAK
BUFFALO
LANGE
OREGON
BASIN
ONTARIO
LANE
ALVEY
WEST
HILL
BURNS
AMPS
CALDWELL
THERMOPOLIS
BOISE
JEFFERSON
SUMMER
LAKE
DIXONVILLE
RESTON
RIVERTON
GOSHEN
KINPORT
K-FALLS
MERIDIAN CO GEN
GRANTS
PASS
DAVE JOHNSTON
BORAH
MIDPOINT
ATLANTIC
CITY
MALIN
BOYLE
COPCO
CASPER
SPENCE
CAPT
JACK
LONE
PINE
MUSTANG
LARAMIE
RIVER
TREASURETON
WEED
JCT
STEGAL
BRIDGER
PLATTE
MONUMENT
HUMBOLDT
VALMY
(562 MW)
HILL TOP
WARNER
CASCADE
ROCK
SPRINGS
NAUGHTON
SIDNEY
ARCHER
BEN
LOMOND
ROUND
MT
FLAMING
GORGE
OLINDA
AULT
CRAIG
TERMINAL
HAYDEN
90
SOUTH
BORDERTOWN
TRACY
BONANZA
IPP
AUSTIN
SMOKY HILL
DILLON
MONA
GONDER
FT
CHURCHILL
DRUM
PAWNEE
(530 MW)
CAMP
WILLIAMS
VALLEY
ROAD
TABLE
MT
STORY
VALMONT
RIFLE
MACHACEK
DANIELS PARK
MALTA
PAVANT
HUNTINGTON
HUNTER
SIGURD
VACADIXON
MONTROSE
TRACY
CURECANTI
MIDWAY
PONCHA
COMANCHE
TESLA
PINTO
RED
BUTTE
MOSS
LANDING
LOS
BANOS
NAVAJO
GLEN
CANYON
HARRY
ALLEN
GATES
SAN JUAN
FOUR CORNERS
MARKETPLACE
OJO
MCCULLOUGH
TAOS
MEAD
MOENKOPI
MIDWAY
NORTON
EL DORADO
DIABLO
B-A
P.E.G.S.
AMBROSIA
MOJAVE
ADELANTO
DAVIS
WEST
MESA
SELIGMAN
LEUPP
LEUPP
VICTORVILLE
ROUND
VALLEY
CAMINO
SYLMAR
MCKINLEY
FLAGSTAFF
CHOLLA
VINCENT
PARKER
EAGLE
MT.
LUGO
RINALDI
BLACKWATER
CORONADO
YAVAPAI
BLYTHE
DEVERS
MIRALOMA
SERRANO
PRESCOTT
SPRINGERVILLE
VALLEY
TABLE MESA
KNOB
WESTWING
ELCENTRO
MIGUEL
IMPERIAL
VALLEY
EL CENTRO
PALO VERDE
PINNACLE PEAK
NORTH GILA
SEMPRA
TIJUANA
GREENLEE
LIBERTY
ARTESIA
AMRAD
GILA
INTERGEN
METROPOLI
JUAREZ
KYRENE
SILVER
KING
SAGUARO
MEXICALI
LA
ROSITA
ARROYO
LUNA
TORTOLITA
SAN LUIS
SOUTH
HIDALGO
LOMAS
CIPRES
NEWMAN
VAIL
BICKNELL
CALIENTE
DIABLO
Figure F.4. 4: July 2013 average Locational Marginal Prices with Alternative 1 generation included,
no new transmission is included.
PEACE RIVER
PEACE CANYON
PCN500
RUTH LAKE
MITSUE
KENNEDY
KDY
5CX3
LITTLE
SMOKY
LOUISE
CREEK
PRINCE RUPERT
WILLISTON
TELKWA
SKEENA
GLENANNAN
N. BARRHEAD
WHITEFISH
LAKE
DEERLAND
SAGITAWAH
N. CALDER
KITMAT
BARLOW
MARGUERITE
LAKE
LAMOUREUX
WABAMUN
CLOVERBAR
SUNDANCE
KEMANO
EAST EDMONTON
BICKERDIKE
ELLERSLIE
KEEPHILLS
BRAZEAU
SODA
CREEK
BATTLE
BAT RV79RIVER
METISKOW
BENALTO
MICA
100 MILE
HOUSE
M ETI S644
RED
DEER
KELLY
LAKE
SHEERNESS
REVELSTOKE
BRIDGE
RIVER
JANET
SARCEE
ASHTON
CREEK
SAVONA
LANGDON
EMPRESS
WARE
JTN.
JENNER
W. BROOKS
CHEEKYE
GOLD RIVER
NICOLA
MALASPINA
MERIDIAN
INVERMERE
CLAYBURN
NATAL
ROSEDALE
INGLEDOW
DUNSMUIR
PEIGAN
ARNOTT
CUSTER
L E G E N D:
NELWAY
BOUNDARY
SAHTLAM
CHIEF
JOE
MONROE
345KV
+-500KV
DC
500KV
CRANBROOK
SELKIRK
WANETA
WHALEACH
N. LETHBRIDGE
GRAND COULEE
230KV
115-161KV
HUNGRY HORSE
LIBBY
ECHO
LAKE
CAB
GORGE
ROCKY
REACH
NOXON
BELL
HOT
SPRINGS
RAVER
GREAT
FALLS
BENEWAH
SCHULTZ
OLYMPIA
PAUL /
CENTRALIA
TAFT
VANTAGE
MOSCOW
MIDWAY
LOW
MON
HANFORD
N
LEWISTON
LIT
GOOSE
ASHE
ROSS
THE
DALLES
KEELER
MILES CITY
DC TIE
GARRISON
LOLO
CUSTER
WALLA
WALLA
JOHN DAY
OSTRANDER
COLSTRIP
ANACONDA
BILLINGS
CROSSOVER
ENTERPRISE
SLATT
HELLS
CANYON
LAGRANDE
BUCKLEY
BROADVIEW
TOWNSEND
McNARY
(1169 MW)
ROUNDUP
PEARL
HATWAI
LOW
GRANITE
ALLSTON
OVANDO
DWORSHAK
BEAVER
BOARDMAN
YELLOWTAIL
OXBOW
BROWNLEE
SHERIDAN
PETERSON
FLATS
MARION
GRIZZLY
DILLON
WYODAK
BUFFALO
LANGE
OREGON
BASIN
ONTARIO
LANE
ALVEY
WEST
HILL
BURNS
AMPS
CALDWELL
THERMOPOLIS
BOISE
JEFFERSON
SUMMER
LAKE
DIXONVILLE
RESTON
K-FALLS
MERIDIAN CO GEN
GRANTS
PASS
RIVERTON
GOSHEN
KINPORT
DAVE JOHNSTON
BORAH
MIDPOINT
ATLANTIC
CITY
MALIN
BOYLE
COPCO
CASPER
SPENCE
CAPT
JACK
LONE
PINE
MUSTANG
LARAMIE
RIVER
TREASURETON
WEED
JCT
STEGAL
BRIDGER
HILL TOP
CASCADE
HUMBOLDT
VALMY
(562 MW)
PLATTE
MONUMENT
WARNER
ROCK
SPRINGS
NAUGHTON
SIDNEY
ARCHER
BEN
LOMOND
ROUND
MT
FLAMING
GORGE
OLINDA
AULT
CRAIG
TERMINAL
HAYDEN
90
SOUTH
BORDERTOWN
VALLEY
ROAD
TABLE
MT
STORY
VALMONT
TRACY
BONANZA
IPP
AUSTIN
SMOKY HILL
DILLON
MONA
GONDER
FT
CHURCHILL
DRUM
PAWNEE
(530 MW)
CAMP
WILLIAMS
RIFLE
MACHACEK
DANIELS PARK
MALTA
PAVANT
HUNTINGTON
HUNTER
SIGURD
VACADIXON
MONTROSE
TRACY
CURECANTI
PONCHA
MIDWAY
COMANCHE
TESLA
PINTO
RED
BUTTE
MOSS
LANDING
LOS
BANOS
NAVAJO
GLEN
CANYON
HARRY
ALLEN
GATES
FOUR CORNERS
SAN JUAN
MARKETPLACE
OJO
MCCULLOUGH
TAOS
MEAD
MOENKOPI
MIDWAY
NORTON
EL DORADO
DIABLO
B-A
P.E.G.S.
AMBROSIA
MOJAVE
ADELANTO
DAVIS
WEST
MESA
SELIGMAN
LEUPP
LEUPP
VICTORVILLE
ROUND
VALLEY
CAMINO
SYLMAR
FLAGSTAFF
CHOLLA
VINCENT
PARKER
EAGLE
MT.
LUGO
RINALDI
MCKINLEY
YAVAPAI
BLACKWATER
CORONADO
BLYTHE
DEVERS
MIRALOMA
SERRANO
PRESCOTT
SPRINGERVILLE
VALLEY
TABLE MESA
KNOB
MIGUEL
WESTWING
ELCENTRO
IMPERIAL
VALLEY
EL CENTRO
PALO VERDE
PINNACLE PEAK
NORTH GILA
TIJUANA
JUAREZ
SEMPRA
METROPOLI
INTERGEN
LIBERTY
ARTESIA
AMRAD
KYRENE
SAGUARO
SILVER
KING
ARROYO
LUNA
TORTOLITA
SAN LUIS
CIPRES
GREENLEE
GILA
MEXICALI
LA
ROSITA
SOUTH
HIDALGO
LOMAS
BICKNELL
NEWMAN
VAIL
CALIENTE
DIABLO
Figure F.4. 5: July 2013 average Locational Marginal Prices after Alterative 1 generation and
Transmission is included.
Appendix F
48
Draft
Alternative 2
Alternative 2 is a quasi IRP for the Rocky Mountain Region. Priority is given to
developing Powder River Basin (PRB) coal and open range wind resources. Alternative 2
includes 359 MW more coal generation and 380 MW more wind generation than
Alternative 1. New gas-fired generation drops from 785 MW to 350 MW. In Alternative
2, the coal and wind resource additions are located differently and are more transmissiondependent. The assumptions driving these relocations are: 1) the transmission cost for
new generation at the Powder River mine-mouth is less than coal transportation costs for
coal generation sited elsewhere; and 2) wind conditions are of higher quality in southern
Wyoming. New generation locations, sizes and fuel type are shown in Figure F.4.6. The
capital requirement for resources in this alternative is $6.6 billion.
250
Coal
280
Wind
359 Coal
50 Wind
250
Wind
125
Wind
700
Coal
575
Coal
1150
Wind
500
Wind
100
Wind
500 Coal
575 Coal
140 Gas
210 Gas
500 Wind
Figure F.4. 6: Alternative 2 resource additions
The focus of this alternative is to use low cost Montana and Wyoming resources and
move its generation to load centers in Salt Lake City, Utah and Denver, Colorado. To do
so, new transmission must be built; otherwise, the new generation will be bottlenecked as
shown in Figure F.4.7. This figure displays the top ten Rocky Mountain Area congested
paths based upon their expansion value. Also shown is the percent of time at the binding
limit for 2013. To solve the congestion, Figure F.4.8 outlines transmission that could be
constructed so that new generation can reach load centers. The capital requirement for
this transmission is estimated at $1.5 billion.
Appendix F
49
Draft
3,900 MW added to Rocky Mtn. States
%
Percent of Time at Binding Limit
Montana
9%
Idaho
Interface Name
Opportunity Cost/Savings ($)
52% West of Broadview
Montana – NW
24,510
$171,010
IdahoMontana
$47,527
4%
Wyoming
9%
Utah
Path C
$25,935
32%
84%
74%
Black Hills – C. Wyoming
$268,164
Bridger West
$227,152
West of Naughton
$100,655
TOT 3
$235,968
16%
75%
Bonanza West
$23,010
29%
TOT 2C
$52,297
Colorado
Figure F.4. 7: Top 10 congested paths if Alternative 2 generation is added without new transmission
Ringling
Broadview
Colstrip
Added 345 kV Line
Added 500 kV Line
Added Series
Compensation Only
Midpoint
Antelope Mine/Reno
Borah
Dave Johnston
Treasureton
Added Phase Shifter
Jim Bridger
LRS
Ben Lomond
Naughton
Miners
Cheyenne Tap
Ault
Green Valley
Figure F.4. 8: Recommended transmission build for Alternative 2 generation
Appendix F
50
Draft
Table F.4.3 outlines the results of the three analyses conducted for Alternative 2. The
approach for this analysis is similar to Alternative 1. The addition of Alternative 2
generation has a potential production cost savings of $382 million if no transmission
constraints existed. Building the recommended transmission provides $249 million of
that potential savings. The remaining $133 million of benefits could be realized by
solving for transmission congestion in other areas of the Western Interconnect.
Comparing Table F.4.3, column B to Table F.4.1, column B from Alternative 1,
Alternative 1 has lower production costs without building new transmission. This is
because under Alternative 1, generation is added closer to load centers, with the
exception of some coal and wind. With most of the new generation near load centers, less
transmission is required. Alternative 2 has new generation added away from load
centers. The existing transmission system bottlenecks the generators, increasing
production costs, unless transmission is built. When new transmission is taken into
consideration (Table F.4.3) Alternative 2 provides $187 million of additional production
cost savings compared to Alternative 1.
Table F.4. 3: Alternative 2 area production costs (dollars are in millions, 2004 nominal terms)
ID
Area
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
18
19
20
22
23
24
25
26
28
29
30
32
33
New Mexico
Arizona
Nevada
WAPA- LC
Mexico
Imperial
San Diego
So. California
LADWP
IPP
PG AND E
Northwest
BC Hydro
Aquila
Alberta
Idaho- West
Montana- West
Sierra
Wyoming- Central
Bonanza
Utah- North
Utah- South
Colorado- East
Colorado- West
Black Hills
Laramie River Station
Jim Bridger
Broadview
Colstrip- Crossover
Total
Appendix F
A
B
Generation added Generation added
with no transmisson
and no new
constraints
transmission
C
Both generation
and new
transmission added
470
4,292
1,215
513
942
15
645
1,016
199
253
2,807
2,186
554
34
1,743
0
0
253
76
69
173
461
867
200
66
83
307
37
177
448
3,954
1,244
459
876
19
778
1,454
303
253
3,517
2,191
547
31
1,430
1
0
234
70
68
148
403
806
200
65
76
262
34
166
447
3,909
1,193
452
877
18
776
1,489
292
252
3,354
2,210
540
32
1,432
1
0
234
76
68
159
422
695
200
58
83
306
36
176
19,654
20,036
19,787
51
Draft
Table F.4.4 shows the interface loadings before and after transmission lines are added to
the Alternative 2 generation levels. Without these new transmission lines, many of the
proposed generation additions could not reach load centers.
Table F.4. 4: Alternative 2 top ten congested interfaces before and after transmission is added
Generation added and no new
transmission
Interface
Black Hills to C Wyoming
TOT 3
Bridger West
West of Broadview
West of Naughton
TOT 2C
Idaho to Montana
Patch C
Montana - Northwest
Bonanza West
Opportunity
Cost ($)
268,164
235,968
227,152
171,010
100,655
52,297
47,527
25,935
24,510
23,010
% Time at
Binding Limit
84%
75%
74%
52%
32%
29%
4%
9%
9%
16%
Both generation and
transmission added
Opportunity
% Time at
Cost ($)
Binding Limit
0%
3,455
3%
14,398
10%
55,996
24%
29,740
15%
72,276
31%
2,835
2%
0%
6,268
5%
1,206
1%
Figures B.4.9 & B.4.10 show LMP prices before and after transmission additions for
Alternative 2. The before map (Figure F.4.9) has extremely low prices in Wyoming. This
is because low cost coal and wind resources were added there, without adding new
transmission. This causes the energy to be bottlenecked. After transmission is added
(Figure F.4.10), most of the congestion has been eliminated, although the differences in
colors indicate that there still remains some congestion during the month of July.
Prices in the bottlenecked areas are low because the marginal units in these areas have
low incremental cost plants. The calculation of LMPs is the price to serve an additional
one megawatt of load at each bus and in these bottlenecked areas without new
transmission, available generation exceeds the available transmission in many hours,
which leaves low cost power available, producing low LMPs.
Appendix F
52
Draft
PEACE RIVER
GM S500
PEACE CANYON
PCN500
RUTH LAKE
M ITSUE
KENNEDY
KDY 5CX3
LITTLE
SM OKY
LOUISE
CREEK
PRINCE RUPERT
WILLISTON
TELKWA
SKEENA
GLENANNAN
N. BARRHEAD
N. CALDER
BARLOW
LAM OUREUX
WABAM UN
CLOVERBAR
SUNDANCE
KEM ANO
M ARGUERITE
LAKE
WHITEFISH
LAKE
DEERLAND
SAGITAWAH
KITM AT
EAST EDM ONTON
BICKERDIKE
ELLERSLIE
KEEPHILLS
BRAZ EAU
SODA
CREEK
BATTLE
BAT RV79RIVER
M ETISKOW
BENALTO
M ICA
100 M ILE
HOUSE
M ETI S644
RED
DEER
KELLY
LAKE
SHEERNESS
REVELSTOKE
BRIDGE
RIVER
JANET
SARCEE
ASHTON
CREEK
SAVONA
LANGDON
EM PRESS
WARE
JTN.
JENNER
W. BROOKS
CHEEKYE
GOLD RIVER
NICOLA
M ALASPINA
M ERIDIAN
INVERM ERE
CLAYBURN
NATAL
ROSEDALE
INGLEDOW
DUNSM UIR
PEIGAN
ARNOTT
CUSTER
SELKIRK
WANETA
WHALEACH
L E G E N D:
N. LETHBRIDGE
NELWAY
BOUNDARY
SAHTLAM
CHIEF
JOE
M ONROE
345KV
+-500KV
DC
500KV
CRANBROOK
GRAND COULEE
230KV
115-161KV
HUNGRY HORSE
LIBBY
ECHO
LAKE
CAB
GORGE
ROCKY
REACH
NOXON
BELL
HOT
SPRINGS
RAVER
GREAT
FALLS
BENEWAH
SCHULTZ
OLYM PIA
PAUL /
CENTRALIA
TAFT
VANTAGE
M OSCOW
LOW
M ON
HANFORD
M IDWAY
N
LEWISTON
LIT
GOOSE
ASHE
ROSS
THE
DALLES
KEELER
M ILES CITY
DC TIE
GARRISON
LOLO
CUSTER
WALLA
WALLA
JOHN DAY
OSTRANDER
COLSTRIP
ANACONDA
BILLINGS
CROSSOVER
ENTERPRISE
SLATT
HELLS
CANYON
LAGRANDE
BOARDM AN
BUCKLEY
BROADVIEW
TOWNSEND
M cNARY
(1169 M W)
ROUNDUP
PEARL
HATWAI
LOW
GRANITE
ALLSTON
OVANDO
DWORSHAK
BEAVER
YELLOWTAIL
OXBOW
BROWNLEE
SHERIDAN
PETERSON
FLATS
M ARION
GRIZ Z LY
DILLON
WYODAK
BUFFALO
LANGE
OREGON
BASIN
ONTARIO
LANE
ALVEY
WEST
HILL
BURNS
AM PS
CALDWELL
THERM OPOLIS
BOISE
JEFFERSON
SUM M ER
LAKE
DIXONVILLE
RESTON
K-FALLS
M ERIDIAN CO GEN
GRANTS
PASS
RIVERTON
GOSHEN
KINPORT
DAVE JOHNSTON
BORAH
M IDPOINT
ATLANTIC
CITY
M ALIN
BOYLE
COPCO
CASPER
SPENCE
CAPT
JACK
LONE
PINE
M USTANG
LARAM IE
RIVER
TREASURETON
WEED
JCT
STEGAL
BRIDGER
HILL TOP
WARNER
CASCADE
PLATTE
M ONUM ENT
HUM BOLDT
VALM Y
(562 M W)
ROCK
SPRINGS
NAUGHTON
SIDNEY
ARCHER
BEN
LOM OND
ROUND
MT
FLAM ING
GORGE
OLINDA
AULT
CRAIG
TERM INAL
HAYDEN
90
SOUTH
BORDERTOWN
STORY
VALM ONT
TRACY
BONANZ A
IPP
AUSTIN
SM OKY HILL
DILLON
M ONA
GONDER
FT
CHURCHILL
DRUM
PAWNEE
(530 M W)
CAM P
WILLIAM S
VALLEY
ROAD
TABLE
MT
RIFLE
M ACHACEK
DANIELS PARK
M ALTA
PAVANT
HUNTINGTON
HUNTER
SIGURD
VACADIXON
M ONTROSE
TRACY
CURECANTI
M IDWAY
PONCHA
COM ANCHE
TESLA
PINTO
RED
BUTTE
M OSS
LANDING
LOS
BANOS
NAVAJO
GLEN
CANYON
HARRY
ALLEN
GATES
SAN JUAN
FOUR CORNERS
M ARKETPLACE
OJO
M CCULLOUGH
TAOS
M EAD
M OENKOPI
M IDWAY
NORTON
EL DORADO
DIABLO
B-A
P.E.G.S.
AM BROSIA
M OJAVE
ADELANTO
DAVIS
WEST
M ESA
SELIGM AN
LEUPP
LEUPP
VICTORVILLE
ROUND
VALLEY
CAM INO
SYLM AR
M CKINLEY
FLAGSTAFF
CHOLLA
VINCENT
PARKER
EAGLE
M T.
LUGO
RINALDI
BLACKWATER
CORONADO
YAVAPAI
BLYTHE
DEVERS
M IRALOM A
SERRANO
PRESCOTT
SPRINGERVILLE
VALLEY
TABLE M ESA
KNOB
M IGUEL
WESTWING
ELCENTRO
IM PERIAL
VALLEY
EL CENTRO
PALO VERDE
PINNACLE PEAK
NORTH GILA
SEM PRA
TIJUANA
M ETROPOLI
JUAREZ
GREENLEE
LIBERTY
ARTESIA
AM RAD
GILA
INTERGEN
KYRENE
SILVER
KING
SAGUARO
M EXICALI
LA
ROSITA
ARROYO
LUNA
TORTOLITA
SAN LUIS
SOUTH
HIDALGO
LOM AS
CIPRES
NEWM AN
VAIL
BICKNELL
CALIENTE
DIABLO
Figure F.4. 9: July 2013 average Locational Marginal Prices with Alternative 2 generation included,
no new transmission is included.
PEACE RIVER
PEACE CANYON
PCN500
RUTH LAKE
MITSUE
KENNEDY
KDY
5CX3
LITTLE
SMOKY
LOUISE
CREEK
PRINCE RUPERT
WILLISTON
TELKWA
SKEENA
GLENANNAN
N. BARRHEAD
WHITEFISH
LAKE
DEERLAND
SAGITAWAH
N. CALDER
KITMAT
BARLOW
MARGUERITE
LAKE
LAMOUREUX
WABAMUN
CLOVERBAR
SUNDANCE
KEMANO
EAST EDMONTON
BICKERDIKE
ELLERSLIE
KEEPHILLS
BRAZEAU
SODA
CREEK
BATTLE
BAT RV79RIVER
METISKOW
BENALTO
MICA
100 MILE
HOUSE
M ETI S644
RED
DEER
KELLY
LAKE
SHEERNESS
REVELSTOKE
BRIDGE
RIVER
JANET
SARCEE
ASHTON
CREEK
SAVONA
LANGDON
EMPRESS
WARE
JTN.
JENNER
W. BROOKS
CHEEKYE
GOLD RIVER
NICOLA
MALASPINA
MERIDIAN
INVERMERE
CLAYBURN
NATAL
ROSEDALE
INGLEDOW
DUNSMUIR
PEIGAN
ARNOTT
CUSTER
L E G E N D:
NELWAY
BOUNDARY
SAHTLAM
CHIEF
JOE
MONROE
345KV
+-500KV
DC
500KV
CRANBROOK
SELKIRK
WANETA
WHALEACH
N. LETHBRIDGE
GRAND COULEE
230KV
115-161KV
HUNGRY HORSE
LIBBY
ECHO
LAKE
CAB
GORGE
ROCKY
REACH
NOXON
BELL
HOT
SPRINGS
RAVER
GREAT
FALLS
BENEWAH
SCHULTZ
OLYMPIA
PAUL /
CENTRALIA
TAFT
VANTAGE
MOSCOW
MIDWAY
LOW
MON
HANFORD
N
LEWISTON
LIT
GOOSE
ASHE
ROSS
THE
DALLES
KEELER
MILES CITY
DC TIE
GARRISON
LOLO
CUSTER
WALLA
WALLA
JOHN DAY
OSTRANDER
COLSTRIP
ANACONDA
BILLINGS
CROSSOVER
ENTERPRISE
SLATT
HELLS
CANYON
LAGRANDE
BUCKLEY
BROADVIEW
TOWNSEND
McNARY
(1169 MW)
ROUNDUP
PEARL
HATWAI
LOW
GRANITE
ALLSTON
OVANDO
DWORSHAK
BEAVER
BOARDMAN
YELLOWTAIL
OXBOW
BROWNLEE
SHERIDAN
PETERSON
FLATS
MARION
GRIZZLY
DILLON
WYODAK
BUFFALO
LANGE
OREGON
BASIN
ONTARIO
LANE
ALVEY
WEST
HILL
BURNS
AMPS
CALDWELL
THERMOPOLIS
BOISE
JEFFERSON
SUMMER
LAKE
DIXONVILLE
RESTON
KINPORT
K-FALLS
MERIDIAN CO GEN
GRANTS
PASS
RIVERTON
GOSHEN
DAVE JOHNSTON
BORAH
MIDPOINT
ATLANTIC
CITY
MALIN
BOYLE
COPCO
CASPER
SPENCE
CAPT
JACK
LONE
PINE
MUSTANG
LARAMIE
RIVER
TREASURETON
WEED
JCT
STEGAL
BRIDGER
HILL TOP
CASCADE
HUMBOLDT
VALMY
(562 MW)
PLATTE
MONUMENT
WARNER
ROCK
SPRINGS
NAUGHTON
SIDNEY
ARCHER
BEN
LOMOND
ROUND
MT
FLAMING
GORGE
OLINDA
AULT
CRAIG
TERMINAL
HAYDEN
90
SOUTH
BORDERTOWN
VALLEY
ROAD
TABLE
MT
STORY
VALMONT
TRACY
BONANZA
IPP
AUSTIN
SMOKY HILL
DILLON
MONA
GONDER
FT
CHURCHILL
DRUM
PAWNEE
(530 MW)
CAMP
WILLIAMS
RIFLE
MACHACEK
DANIELS PARK
MALTA
PAVANT
HUNTINGTON
HUNTER
SIGURD
VACADIXON
MONTROSE
TRACY
CURECANTI
PONCHA
MIDWAY
COMANCHE
TESLA
PINTO
RED
BUTTE
MOSS
LANDING
LOS
BANOS
NAVAJO
GLEN
CANYON
HARRY
ALLEN
GATES
FOUR CORNERS
SAN JUAN
MARKETPLACE
OJO
MCCULLOUGH
TAOS
MEAD
MOENKOPI
MIDWAY
NORTON
EL DORADO
DIABLO
B-A
P.E.G.S.
AMBROSIA
MOJAVE
ADELANTO
DAVIS
WEST
MESA
SELIGMAN
LEUPP
LEUPP
VICTORVILLE
ROUND
VALLEY
CAMINO
SYLMAR
PARKER
EAGLE
MT.
LUGO
MCKINLEY
FLAGSTAFF
CHOLLA
VINCENT
RINALDI
YAVAPAI
BLACKWATER
CORONADO
BLYTHE
DEVERS
MIRALOMA
SERRANO
PRESCOTT
SPRINGERVILLE
VALLEY
TABLE MESA
KNOB
MIGUEL
WESTWING
ELCENTRO
IMPERIAL
VALLEY
EL CENTRO
PALO VERDE
PINNACLE PEAK
NORTH GILA
TIJUANA
JUAREZ
SEMPRA
METROPOLI
INTERGEN
LIBERTY
ARTESIA
AMRAD
KYRENE
SAGUARO
SILVER
KING
ARROYO
LUNA
TORTOLITA
SAN LUIS
CIPRES
GREENLEE
GILA
MEXICALI
LA
ROSITA
SOUTH
HIDALGO
LOMAS
BICKNELL
NEWMAN
VAIL
CALIENTE
DIABLO
Figure F.4. 10: July 2013 average Locational Marginal Prices with Alternative 2 generation and new
transmission is included.
Appendix F
53
Draft
Alternative 3
Alternative 3 includes similar resource additions as Alternative 2, and adds 3,900 MW of
Powder River coal and open range wind resources for export purposes, as shown in
Figure F.4.11. The total capital requirements for this alternative are estimated to be $12.3
billion, although in this case $2.3 billion of West Coast gas-fired generation build could
be avoided by this alternative.
500 Coal
950 Wind
260 Gas
500
Wind
609 Coal
100 Wind
250 Wind
1400
Coal
125
Wind
50 Gas
575 Coal
160 Wind
1000
Wind
500 Wind
200 Wind
950
Coal
250
Wind
1540 Coal
575 Coal
210 Gas
140 Gas
800 Wind
120 Wind
Figure F.4. 11: Alternative 3 resource additions
Appendix F
54
Draft
73%
Alberta - BC
$53,112
B.C.
7,800 MW added to Rocky Mtn. States
%
Percent of Time at Binding Limit
Alberta
Wash.
71%
Interface Name
Opportunity Cost/Savings ($)
Montana
60%
West of Broadview
$187,948
Montana – NW
$157,469
100%
Idaho
Black Hills – C. Wyoming
$288,392
82%
Oregon
Bridger West
$241,727
Wyoming
Utah
31%
Nevada
TOT 3
$140,590
50%
Bonanza West
$48,990
IPP DC
$69,519
TOT 2C
$157,912
Colorado
California
90%
46%
New Mexico
Arizona
Mexico
Figure F.4. 12: Top 10 congested paths if Alternative 3 generation is added without new transmission
There are a number of options to relieve transmission congestion that appear in
Alternative 3. Figure F.4.12 illustrates the top ten congested paths when the resources
are added to the existing system without new transmission build. The most heavily
constrained paths are paths that move power out of Wyoming and Montana.
The Workgroups determined that at least two 500 KV transmission paths would be
required from the Rocky Mountain region to reach the West Coast, and that these paths
should not be in the same corridor. Figure F.4.13 shows the four optional combinations
of 500 KV lines that were studied. Additional combinations are possible. The capital
requirements for these options range from $3.7 to $4.2 billion.
New 500 KV lines to move power from Montana to Washington and from Utah to
southern Nevada were investigated. Three optional 500 KV lines were identified to move
power from Idaho to southern Nevada, northern California, and central Oregon. The
option combinations that were analyzed are:
1. New transmission from Montana to Washington and from Idaho to northern
California.
2. New transmission from Utah to southern Nevada and from Idaho to northern
California.
3. New transmission from Utah to southern Nevada and from Idaho to central
Oregon.
Appendix F
55
Draft
4. New transmission from Idaho to southern Nevada and from Idaho to California.
Common to all the options in Alternative 3 is the addition of new converter equipment to
the new 500 KV DC line from Utah to Southern California (the IPP line) to increase its
capacity by 500 MW. The Workgroups did not analyze an option with two new 500 KV
lines terminating in the Northwest because the delivery of that much power to the
Northwest would probably require expensive upgrades to the Pacific Intertie to move the
power to California.
Bell
Noxon
Great Falls
Taft
Ashe
Hot Springs
Missoula
Grizzly
Ringling
Requires two 500 kV lines
for export
Midpoint
500 kV
Kinport
345 kV
Dave Johnson
Borah
Inc. DC
Series Capacitor Upgrade
Broadview
Colstrip
Option 1
LRS
Ben Lomond
Naughton
Table Mtn.
IPP
Ant Mine
Jim Bridger
Miners
Mona
Cheyenne Tap
Ault
Option 2
Emery
Grand Junction
Tesla
Crystal
Added Phase Shifter
Green Valley
Red Butte
Option 3
Market Place
Adelanto
Options 2-4
Option 4
Option 1 Only
Figure F.4. 13: Recommended transmission build for Alternative 3 generation. Requires two of
potentially five export paths to the West Coast
Appendix F
56
Draft
Table F.4.5 outlines the results of the six analyses conducted for Alternative 3. The first
analysis adds the generation as shown in Figure F.4.11 and lifting all transmission
constraints on the Western Interconnect System (column A). This demonstrates the
maximum amount of savings that could be obtained given the generation. The second
analysis (column B) adds the generation shown in Figure F.4.11 to the existing
transmission system. The difference in production costs is an estimated $918 million for
the Western Interconnect. Columns C through F are the results of including both
Alternative 3 generation and the four transmission options. Each of the four options has
similar total Western Interconnect production costs, or an average of $18.5 billion. On
average the transmission added provides $758 million of the $918 million of potential
production cost savings. The remaining $160 million of savings could be realized by
solving for transmission congestion in other areas of the Western Interconnect.
Table F.4. 5: Alternative 3 area production costs (dollars are in millions, 2004 nominal terms)
ID
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
18
19
20
22
23
24
25
26
28
29
30
32
33
Area Name
New Mexico
Arizona
Nevada
WAPA- LC
Mexico
Imperial
San Diego
So. California
LADWP
IPP
PG AND E
Northwest
BC Hydro
Aquila
Alberta
Idaho- West
Montana- West
Sierra
Wyoming- Central
Bonanza
Utah- North
Utah- South
Colorado- East
Colorado- West
Black Hills
Laramie River Station
Jim Bridger
Broadview
Colstrip- Crossover
Total
A
B
Generation added Generation added
with no
and no new
transmisson
transmission
constraints
450
421
4,100
3,630
1,072
1,304
473
422
877
867
12
17
555
693
844
1,405
153
274
341
339
2,291
3,488
1,970
2,192
517
531
34
31
1,707
1,434
0
2
96
42
235
204
120
72
69
66
160
123
461
352
877
583
200
194
60
55
83
79
307
233
49
44
189
118
18,298
19,216
C
Option 1
Transmission
Added
D
Option 2
Transmission
Added
E
Option 3
Transmission
Added
F
Option 4
Transmission
Added
433
3,669
1,226
416
869
14
653
1,307
277
338
2,900
1,940
477
30
1,405
0
69
212
113
67
141
399
651
198
52
82
301
48
186
435
3,725
962
420
866
14
645
1,291
252
340
2,983
1,988
482
31
1,415
0
73
218
113
64
144
425
684
200
53
83
305
48
186
434
3,714
927
418
866
14
654
1,318
257
339
3,155
1,908
471
29
1,404
69
213
112
63
142
422
662
200
53
83
305
48
185
434
3,725
1,020
409
868
14
657
1,296
276
341
2,911
2,016
485
31
1,418
0
73
216
112
66
143
414
654
200
52
83
303
48
185
18,475
18,443
18,465
18,449
Figures B.4.14 & B.4.15 show before and after transmission additions for Alternative 3
(option 3 shown). The before map (Figure F.4.14) has extremely low prices in Wyoming
and Montana. This is because low cost coal and wind resources were added without new
transmission and the energy it generates is bottlenecked. After transmission is added
(Figure F.4.15), the congestion has been eliminated across the Rocky Mountain area to
the Northwest and Nevada. This is because the two 500kV export paths and the upgrade
to the IPP DC have allowed greater export of power to these locations, therefore lowering
LMPs by displacing higher cost gas plants.
Appendix F
57
Draft
PEACE RIVER
PEACE CANYON
PCN500
RUTH LAKE
MITSUE
KENNEDY
KDY
5CX3
LITTLE
SMOKY
LOUISE
CREEK
PRINCE RUPERT
WILLISTON
TELKWA
SKEENA
GLENANNAN
N. BARRHEAD
N. CALDER
BARLOW
LAMOUREUX
WABAMUN
CLOVERBAR
SUNDANCE
KEMANO
MARGUERITE
LAKE
WHITEFISH
LAKE
DEERLAND
SAGITAWAH
KITMAT
EAST EDMONTON
BICKERDIKE
ELLERSLIE
KEEPHILLS
BRAZEAU
SODA
CREEK
BATTLE
BAT RV79RIVER
METISKOW
BENALTO
MICA
100 MILE
HOUSE
M ETI S644
RED
DEER
KELLY
LAKE
SHEERNESS
REVELSTOKE
BRIDGE
RIVER
JANET
SARCEE
ASHTON
CREEK
SAVONA
LANGDON
EMPRESS
WARE
JTN.
JENNER
W. BROOKS
CHEEKYE
GOLD RIVER
NICOLA
MALASPINA
MERIDIAN
INVERMERE
CLAYBURN
NATAL
ROSEDALE
INGLEDOW
DUNSMUIR
PEIGAN
ARNOTT
CUSTER
L E G E N D:
N. LETHBRIDGE
NELWAY
CHIEF
JOE
MONROE
345KV
+-500KV
DC
500KV
CRANBROOK
SELKIRK
WANETA
WHALEACH
BOUNDARY
SAHTLAM
GRAND COULEE
230KV
115-161KV
HUNGRY HORSE
LIBBY
ECHO
LAKE
CAB
GORGE
ROCKY
REACH
NOXON
BELL
HOT
SPRINGS
RAVER
GREAT
FALLS
BENEWAH
SCHULTZ
OLYMPIA
PAUL /
CENTRALIA
TAFT
VANTAGE
MOSCOW
LOW
MON
HANFORD
MIDWAY
N
LEWISTON
LIT
GOOSE
ASHE
ROSS
THE
DALLES
KEELER
MILES CITY
DC TIE
GARRISON
LOLO
CUSTER
WALLA
WALLA
JOHN DAY
OSTRANDER
COLSTRIP
ANACONDA
BILLINGS
CROSSOVER
ENTERPRISE
SLATT
HELLS
CANYON
LAGRANDE
BOARDMAN
BUCKLEY
BROADVIEW
TOWNSEND
McNARY
(1169 MW)
ROUNDUP
PEARL
HATWAI
LOW
GRANITE
ALLSTON
OVANDO
DWORSHAK
BEAVER
YELLOWTAIL
OXBOW
BROWNLEE
SHERIDAN
PETERSON
FLATS
MARION
GRIZZLY
DILLON
WYODAK
BUFFALO
LANGE
OREGON
BASIN
ONTARIO
LANE
ALVEY
WEST
HILL
BURNS
AMPS
CALDWELL
THERMOPOLIS
BOISE
JEFFERSON
SUMMER
LAKE
DIXONVILLE
RESTON
RIVERTON
GOSHEN
KINPORT
K-FALLS
MERIDIAN CO GEN
GRANTS
PASS
DAVE JOHNSTON
BORAH
MIDPOINT
ATLANTIC
CITY
MALIN
BOYLE
COPCO
CASPER
SPENCE
CAPT
JACK
LONE
PINE
MUSTANG
LARAMIE
RIVER
TREASURETON
WEED
JCT
STEGAL
BRIDGER
PLATTE
MONUMENT
HUMBOLDT
VALMY
(562 MW)
HILL TOP
WARNER
CASCADE
ROCK
SPRINGS
NAUGHTON
SIDNEY
ARCHER
BEN
LOMOND
ROUND
MT
FLAMING
GORGE
OLINDA
AULT
CRAIG
TERMINAL
HAYDEN
90
SOUTH
BORDERTOWN
TRACY
BONANZA
IPP
AUSTIN
SMOKY HILL
DILLON
MONA
GONDER
FT
CHURCHILL
DRUM
PAWNEE
(530 MW)
CAMP
WILLIAMS
VALLEY
ROAD
TABLE
MT
STORY
VALMONT
RIFLE
MACHACEK
DANIELS PARK
MALTA
PAVANT
HUNTINGTON
HUNTER
SIGURD
VACADIXON
MONTROSE
TRACY
CURECANTI
MIDWAY
PONCHA
COMANCHE
TESLA
PINTO
RED
BUTTE
MOSS
LANDING
LOS
BANOS
NAVAJO
GLEN
CANYON
HARRY
ALLEN
GATES
SAN JUAN
FOUR CORNERS
MARKETPLACE
OJO
MCCULLOUGH
TAOS
MEAD
MOENKOPI
MIDWAY
NORTON
EL DORADO
DIABLO
B-A
P.E.G.S.
AMBROSIA
MOJAVE
ADELANTO
DAVIS
WEST
MESA
SELIGMAN
LEUPP
LEUPP
VICTORVILLE
ROUND
VALLEY
CAMINO
SYLMAR
MCKINLEY
FLAGSTAFF
CHOLLA
VINCENT
PARKER
EAGLE
MT.
LUGO
RINALDI
BLACKWATER
CORONADO
YAVAPAI
BLYTHE
DEVERS
MIRALOMA
SERRANO
PRESCOTT
SPRINGERVILLE
VALLEY
TABLE MESA
KNOB
WESTWING
ELCENTRO
MIGUEL
IMPERIAL
VALLEY
EL CENTRO
PALO VERDE
PINNACLE PEAK
NORTH GILA
SEMPRA
TIJUANA
GREENLEE
LIBERTY
ARTESIA
AMRAD
GILA
INTERGEN
METROPOLI
JUAREZ
KYRENE
SILVER
KING
SAGUARO
MEXICALI
LA
ROSITA
ARROYO
LUNA
TORTOLITA
SAN LUIS
SOUTH
HIDALGO
LOMAS
CIPRES
NEWMAN
VAIL
BICKNELL
CALIENTE
DIABLO
Figure F.4. 14: July 2013 average Locational Marginal Prices with Alternative 3 generation included,
no new transmission is included.
PEACE RIVER
PEACE CANYON
RUTH LAKE
MITSUE
KENNEDY
KDY
5CX3
LITTLE
SMOKY
LOUISE
CREEK
PRINCE RUPERT
WILLISTON
TELKWA
SKEENA
GLENANNAN
N. BARRHEAD
WHITEFISH
LAKE
DEERLAND
SAGITAWAH
N. CALDER
KITMAT
BARLOW
MARGUERITE
LAKE
LAMOUREUX
WABAMUN
CLOVERBAR
SUNDANCE
KEMANO
EAST EDMONTON
BICKERDIKE
ELLERSLIE
KEEPHILLS
BRAZEAU
SODA
CREEK
BATTLE
RIVER
BAT RV79
METISKOW
BENALTO
MICA
100 MILE
HOUSE
M ETI S644
RED
DEER
KELLY
LAKE
SHEERNESS
REVELSTOKE
BRIDGE
RIVER
JANET
SARCEE
ASHTON
CREEK
SAVONA
LANGDON
EMPRESS
WARE
JTN.
JENNER
W. BROOKS
CHEEKYE
GOLD RIVER
NICOLA
MALASPINA
MERIDIAN
INVERMERE
CLAYBURN
NATAL
ROSEDALE
INGLEDOW
DUNSMUIR
PEIGAN
ARNOTT
CUSTER
L E G E N D:
N. LETHBRIDGE
NELWAY
CHIEF
JOE
MONROE
345KV
+-500KV
DC
500KV
CRANBROOK
SELKIRK
WANETA
WHALEACH
BOUNDARY
SAHTLAM
GRAND COULEE
230KV
115-161KV
HUNGRY HORSE
LIBBY
ECHO
LAKE
CAB
GORGE
ROCKY
REACH
NOXON
BELL
HOT
SPRINGS
RAVER
GREAT
FALLS
BENEWAH
SCHULTZ
OLYMPIA
PAUL /
CENTRALIA
TAFT
VANTAGE
MOSCOW
MIDWAY
LOW
MON
HANFORD
N
LEWISTON
LIT
GOOSE
ASHE
ROSS
THE
DALLES
KEELER
MILES CITY
DC TIE
GARRISON
LOLO
CUSTER
WALLA
WALLA
JOHN DAY
OSTRANDER
COLSTRIP
ANACONDA
BILLINGS
CROSSOVER
ENTERPRISE
SLATT
HELLS
CANYON
LAGRANDE
BUCKLEY
BROADVIEW
TOWNSEND
McNARY
(1169 MW)
ROUNDUP
PEARL
HATWAI
LOW
GRANITE
ALLSTON
OVANDO
DWORSHAK
BEAVER
BOARDMAN
YELLOWTAIL
OXBOW
BROWNLEE
SHERIDAN
PETERSON
FLATS
MARION
GRIZZLY
DILLON
WYODAK
BUFFALO
LANGE
OREGON
BASIN
ONTARIO
LANE
ALVEY
WEST
HILL
BURNS
AMPS
CALDWELL
THERMOPOLIS
BOISE
JEFFERSON
SUMMER
LAKE
DIXONVILLE
RESTON
RIVERTON
GOSHEN
KINPORT
K-FALLS
MERIDIAN CO GEN
GRANTS
PASS
DAVE JOHNSTON
BORAH
MIDPOINT
ATLANTIC
CITY
MALIN
BOYLE
COPCO
CASPER
SPENCE
CAPT
JACK
LONE
PINE
MUSTANG
LARAMIE
RIVER
TREASURETON
WEED
JCT
STEGAL
BRIDGER
HILL TOP
CASCADE
PLATTE
MONUMENT
HUMBOLDT
VALMY
(562 MW)
WARNER
ROCK
SPRINGS
NAUGHTON
SIDNEY
ARCHER
BEN
LOMOND
ROUND
MT
FLAMING
GORGE
OLINDA
AULT
CRAIG
TERMINAL
HAYDEN
90
SOUTH
BORDERTOWN
TABLE
MT
STORY
VALMONT
TRACY
BONANZA
IPP
AUSTIN
SMOKY HILL
DILLON
MONA
GONDER
FT
CHURCHILL
DRUM
PAWNEE
(530 MW)
CAMP
WILLIAMS
VALLEY
ROAD
RIFLE
MACHACEK
DANIELS PARK
MALTA
PAVANT
HUNTINGTON
HUNTER
SIGURD
VACADIXON
MONTROSE
TRACY
CURECANTI
PONCHA
MIDWAY
COMANCHE
TESLA
PINTO
RED
BUTTE
MOSS
LANDING
LOS
BANOS
NAVAJO
GLEN
CANYON
HARRY
ALLEN
GATES
FOUR CORNERS
SAN JUAN
MARKETPLACE
OJO
MCCULLOUGH
TAOS
MEAD
MOENKOPI
MIDWAY
NORTON
EL DORADO
DIABLO
B-A
P.E.G.S.
AMBROSIA
MOJAVE
ADELANTO
DAVIS
WEST
MESA
SELIGMAN
LEUPP
LEUPP
VICTORVILLE
ROUND
VALLEY
CAMINO
SYLMAR
PARKER
EAGLE
MT.
LUGO
MCKINLEY
FLAGSTAFF
CHOLLA
VINCENT
RINALDI
YAVAPAI
BLACKWATER
CORONADO
BLYTHE
DEVERS
MIRALOMA
SERRANO
PRESCOTT
SPRINGERVILLE
VALLEY
TABLE MESA
KNOB
MIGUEL
WESTWING
ELCENTRO
IMPERIAL
VALLEY
EL CENTRO
PALO VERDE
PINNACLE PEAK
NORTH GILA
TIJUANA
JUAREZ
SEMPRA
METROPOLI
INTERGEN
LIBERTY
ARTESIA
AMRAD
KYRENE
SAGUARO
SILVER
KING
ARROYO
LUNA
TORTOLITA
SAN LUIS
CIPRES
GREENLEE
GILA
MEXICALI
LA
ROSITA
SOUTH
HIDALGO
LOMAS
BICKNELL
NEWMAN
VAIL
CALIENTE
DIABLO
Figure F.4. 15: July 2013 average Locational Marginal Prices with Alternative 3 generation and
option 3 transmission.
Appendix F
58
Row
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
9
10
11
12
13
15
14
16
17
18
23
21
22
20
19
24
26
25
31
28
29
43
32
30
37
38
33
27
35
34
Interface
Black Hills to C Wyoming
BRIDGER WEST
WEST OF BROADVIEW
TOT 2C
MONTANA - NORTHWEST
TOT 3
IPP DC LINE
ALBERTA - BRITISH COLUMBIA
BONANZA WEST
North of Miguel
WOR -n- El Dor to Lugo
TOT 2B2
West of Naughton (E-S&W)
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO (NM1)
TOT 1A
PAVANT, INTRMTN - GONDER 230 KV
SOUTHWEST OF FOUR CORNERS
TOT 2A
SW Wyoming to N Utah
Combined PACI & PDCI
NW to Canada, East BC
COI
PATH C
N to S Utah
IDAHO - MONTANA
PACIFIC DC INTERTIE (PDCI)
TOT 7
Montana - Southeast
ARIZONA - CALIFORNIA
Combined 4a, 4b
IDAHO - NORTHWEST
NORTHWEST - CANADA
CA INDEPENDENT - MEXICO (CFE)
NORTHERN - SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
Southern CA Imports
Idaho to LV (SWIP)
Idaho to N. California
Generation added and no new
transmission
Opportunity
% Time at
Cost ($)
Binding Limit
288,392
100%
241,727
82%
187,948
60%
157,912
46%
157,469
71%
140,590
50%
69,519
90%
53,112
73%
48,990
31%
43,937
55%
40,721
53%
33,590
24%
28,997
11%
24,319
40%
21,756
18%
20,105
10%
15,389
7%
14,692
10%
14,492
3%
14,367
21%
14,267
8%
13,750
61%
9,187
5%
6,177
3%
5,812
2%
5,321
20%
5,274
4%
5,010
9%
4,719
26%
4,495
6%
4,364
2%
4,087
3%
3,881
43%
3,615
20%
3,427
27%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Appendix F
% Time at
Binding Limit
0%
24%
10%
53%
24%
5%
69%
64%
22%
60%
56%
14%
0%
34%
14%
2%
4%
4%
0%
21%
9%
45%
0%
1%
0%
8%
0%
8%
33%
11%
2%
4%
43%
10%
56%
N/A
0%
Option 1
Opportunity
Cost ($)
43,495
25,541
128,369
34,847
4,668
29,428
38,988
33,242
35,441
29,973
19,699
25,197
15,844
1,647
7,679
5,542
15,611
10,530
8,306
204
1,283
1,898
10,322
3,539
7,364
2,766
7,366
3,869
2,774
6,244
N/A
% Time at
Binding Limit
0%
13%
15%
22%
28%
5%
68%
66%
17%
62%
57%
8%
1%
32%
4%
0%
6%
4%
0%
20%
11%
50%
0%
0%
18%
6%
0%
15%
40%
7%
0%
3%
42%
9%
55%
N/A
0%
Option 2
Opportunity
Cost ($)
17,917
42,105
23,335
24,181
4,745
21,456
40,148
29,420
34,869
31,767
10,211
1,242
24,548
3,224
324
13,377
6,013
11,142
13,573
10,924
14,711
1,154
31,248
3,864
6,309
400
4,226
3,833
2,566
5,739
N/A
% Time at
Binding Limit
0%
10%
16%
20%
28%
6%
68%
60%
14%
63%
56%
9%
5%
32%
4%
1%
6%
5%
0%
24%
12%
60%
0%
0%
20%
4%
0%
25%
38%
6%
0%
4%
43%
7%
70%
N/A
N/A
Option 3
Opportunity
Cost ($)
12,907
44,633
22,037
25,917
5,884
24,906
38,847
25,471
36,434
33,467
12,113
5,834
24,758
2,734
905
13,380
7,207
15,692
16,476
12,870
17,276
769
53,203
3,652
6,470
5,980
3,873
1,792
6,531
N/A
N/A
% Time at
Binding Limit
0%
14%
16%
20%
28%
4%
72%
60%
3%
61%
60%
8%
0%
32%
0%
7%
7%
4%
0%
17%
10%
34%
0%
2%
20%
0%
0%
24%
40%
9%
1%
3%
43%
4%
56%
25%
0%
Option 4
Opportunity
Cost ($)
27,298
45,147
43,869
25,622
3,560
26,994
40,359
4,319
36,516
31,037
9,848
24,639
312
10,098
16,521
3,996
10,179
14,080
7,132
911
15,731
1,408
3
46,782
3,864
9,704
1,102
4,349
3,929
982
6,569
22,237
-
Draft
The top congested paths for Alternative 3 are outlined in Table F.4.6. The table is sorted
by the opportunity cost for generation added without transmission additions. The table
also demonstrates how the added transmission has lowered congestion for Options 1
through 4.
Table F.4. 6: Alternative 3 top congested interfaces before and after transmission is added
59
Draft
Alternative 4
This alterative builds upon the resource and transmission additions in Alternative 3,
adding another 3,900 MW of PRB coal and wind generating capacity for export purposes.
This generation is sufficient to meet load growth in the Rocky Mountain region, and
export power equal to two times the region’s load growth. Generation capacity additions
in Alternative 4 total 11,700 MW as shown in Figure F.4.16. The capital requirements for
this level of generation are approximately $19.8 billion, although $4.5 billion of West
Coast gas fired plants would not need to be constructed.
Not surprisingly, without new transmission Alternative 4 creates significantly more
congestion than Alternative 3. This congestion is summarized in Figure F.4.17. To
accommodate this level of new resources in the RMATS region, the Workgroups
investigated the addition of two 500 KV DC lines from Wyoming to northern or southern
California and applied this to Alternative 3- option 3 transmission build. Figure F.4.18
outlines the transmission additions for this alternative at an estimated cost of $5.6 to $5.8
billion.
750 Coal
1000
Wind
260 Gas
1000
Wind
1109
Coal
100 Wind
250 Wind
440 Wind
2100 Coal
125 Wind
125 Wind
50 Gas
800 Wind
575 Coal
230 Wind
320
Wind
1500
2450
Wind
950
Coal
Wind
2500 Coal
575 Coal
140 Gas
250 Wind
603 Gas
1500 Wind
250 Wind
Figure F.4. 16: Alternative 4 resource additions
Appendix F
60
Draft
B.C.
11,700 MW added to Rocky Mtn. States
%
Percent of Time at Binding Limit
Alberta
Wash.
Interface Name
Opportunity Cost/Savings ($)
Montana
42%
West of Broadview
$128,921
79%
Montana – NW
$251,693
Idaho
9%
Idaho- Montana
$103,932
100%
Black Hills – C.
Wyoming $175,556
96%
Oregon
Bridger West
$272,351
Wyoming
Utah
TOT 3
$100,932
60%
Nevada
55%
Bonanza West
$132,741
IPP DC
$73,000
TOT 2C
$176,124
TOT 2A
$86,407
California
Colorado
47%
82%
50%
New Mexico
Arizona
Mexico
Figure F.4. 17: Top 10 congested paths if Alternative 4 generation is added without new transmission
Taft
Missoula
DC
Broadview
Colstrip
Ringling
Grizzly
Midpoint
Boise
500 kV
Wyodak
Kinport
345 kV
Borah
Dave Johnson
Option 1
Jim Bridger
230 kV
LRS
Ben Lomond
Naughton
IPP
Additional DC
Series Capacitor Upgrade
Miners
Mona
Cheyenne Tap
Ault
Option 2
Emery
Grand Junction
Tesla
Midway
Crystal
Market Place
Vincent
Adelanto
Green Valley
Red Butte
Added Phase Shifter
Added Transformer
Ant Mine
Mira Loma
Figure F.4. 18: Recommended transmission build for Alternative 4 generation, requires two of
potential five 500kV export lines to the west coast (Alternative 3- option 3 shown here). Also required
is one 500kV DC line from NE Wyoming to California.
Appendix F
61
Draft
Table F.4.7 outlines the results of the four analyses conducted for Alternative 4. The first
analysis adds the generation as shown in Figure F.4.16 and lifts all transmission
constraints on the Western Interconnect System (column A). This demonstrates the
maximum amount of savings that could be obtained given the generation. The second
analysis (column B) adds the generation as shown in Figure F.4.16 to the existing
transmission system. The difference between these analyses reflects the cost of
transmission congestion, which is estimated to be $2 billion for the Western Interconnect.
Column C and D are the results of both Alternative 4 options. The production costs
results are nearly identical overall and on average the recommended transmission
upgrades capture $1.7 billion of the potential transmission savings. The remaining $302
million of savings could be realized by solving transmission congestion in other areas of
the Western Interconnect.
Table F.4. 7: Alternative 4 area production costs (dollars are in millions)
Row
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
18
19
20
22
23
24
25
26
28
29
30
32
33
Area Name
New Mexico
Arizona
Nevada
WAPA- LC
Mexico
Imperial
San Diego
So. California
LADWP
IPP
PG AND E
Northwest
BC Hydro
Aquila
Alberta
Idaho- West
Montana- West
Sierra
Wyoming- Central
Bonanza
Utah- North
Utah- South
Colorado- East
Colorado- West
Black Hills
Laramie River Station
Jim Bridger
Broadview
Colstrip- Crossover
Total
Appendix F
A
B
Generation
Generation
added with no
added and no
transmisson
new transmission
constraints
430
418
3,829
3,538
896
1,317
410
397
780
865
9
17
450
668
681
1,388
114
275
344
341
1,780
3,429
1,697
2,184
472
518
33
30
1,654
1,421
1
85
22
218
203
150
51
69
56
146
116
458
347
988
508
200
153
54
41
83
66
307
169
61
47
209
65
16,609
18,652
C
Option 1
Transmission
Added
D
Option 2
Transmission
Added
420
3,405
1,061
366
849
11
502
1,060
227
335
2,570
1,827
439
28
1,381
49
187
139
55
127
387
619
193
50
82
299
58
183
420
3,375
963
373
814
11
428
890
164
338
3,048
1,816
439
29
1,385
47
191
139
55
127
392
606
194
50
82
297
58
182
16,910
16,911
62
Draft
The top congested paths for Alternative 4 are outlined in Table F.4.18. The table is
sorted by the case that has generation added without transmission additions. The table
also demonstrates how the added transmission lowers congestion for Options 1 & 2.
Table F.4. 8: Alternative 4 top congested interfaces before and after transmission is added
Generation added and no new
transmission
Row
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
Interface
BRIDGER WEST
MONTANA - NORTHWEST
TOT 2C
Black Hills to C Wyoming
BONANZA WEST
WEST OF BROADVIEW
IDAHO - MONTANA
TOT 3
TOT 2A
IPP DC LINE
TOT 1A
ALBERTA - BRITISH COLUMBIA
West of Naughton (E-S&W)
WOR -n- El Dor to Lugo
North of Miguel
TOT 2B2
PAVANT, INTRMTN - GONDER 230 KV
SOUTHWEST OF FOUR CORNERS
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO (NM1)
Montana - Southeast
Combined 4a, 4b
TOT 7
Combined PACI & PDCI
COI
NW to Canada, East BC
TOT 4B
SW Wyoming to N Utah
TOT 4A
PACIFIC DC INTERTIE (PDCI)
ARIZONA - CALIFORNIA
NORTHWEST - CANADA
CA INDEPENDENT - MEXICO (CFE)
PATH C
Southern CA Imports
NORTHERN - SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
Imp.Valley to Miguel
SW Wyoming to Bonanza
MIDPOINT - SUMMER LAKE
Wyodak DC
Colstrip South 500KV
Option 1
Option 2
Opportunity
% Time at
Opportunity
% Time at
Opportunity
% Time at
Cost ($)
Binding Limit
Cost ($)
Binding Limit
Cost ($)
Binding Limit
272,351
96%
23,870
16%
25,147
16%
251,693
79%
76,702
43%
82,796
44%
176,124
50%
73,423
57%
40,574
30%
175,556
100%
0%
0%
132,741
60%
80,080
34%
70,004
28%
128,921
42%
25,130
11%
27,111
11%
103,923
9%
34,969
26%
33,019
24%
100,932
55%
3,260
2%
2,342
2%
86,407
47%
15,220
9%
12,848
8%
73,000
82%
42,622
70%
41,884
81%
71,020
60%
20,629
18%
16,177
15%
53,068
73%
37,994
60%
39,233
62%
51,847
21%
39,603
25%
28,429
18%
45,071
55%
18,080
47%
8,756
21%
43,210
51%
24,189
53%
18,213
40%
39,695
28%
28,882
20%
22,663
16%
33,270
14%
81
0%
402
1%
29,943
13%
12,662
5%
14,458
7%
29,183
45%
33,206
46%
32,280
45%
23,285
33%
1,254
2%
1,600
2%
18,485
24%
551
1%
544
1%
18,040
9%
99
1%
40
1%
14,931
22%
12,576
17%
18,098
29%
14,931
61%
10,374
59%
20,571
78%
12,121
6%
20,421
15%
19,371
14%
9,122
7%
0%
0%
7,413
3%
0%
0%
6,933
6%
224
0%
229
0%
6,004
18%
2,696
10%
2,737
11%
4,784
24%
1,203
18%
688
13%
4,655
3%
6,188
4%
7,019
4%
3,646
41%
2,594
37%
2,024
29%
3,471
4%
0%
0%
3,461
28%
6,680
54%
1,780
20%
3,290
18%
3,861
13%
1,020
5%
2,711
11%
5,188
19%
4,271
17%
2,470
1%
0%
0%
2,398
1%
853
1%
1,373
1%
N/A
N/A
139,647
95%
144,851
97%
N/A
N/A
4,944
6%
4,256
3%
Figures B.4.19 & B.4.20 show before and after transmission addions for Alternative 4.
The before map (Figure F.4.19) has extremely low prices in Wyoming and Montana.
This is because low cost coal and wind resources were added there and without new
transmission, the energy it generates is bottlenecked. After transmission is added (Figure
F.4.20), the congestion has been eliminated across the Rocky Mountain area to the
Northwest and Nevada. This is because the new 500kV DC, each of the two 500kV
export paths and the upgrade to the IPP DC have exported power to these locations,
therefore lowering LMPs by displacing higher cost gas plants. Even though the West
Coast is importing 7,800MW of low cost generation, it is still not enough new generation
to displace all the higher cost generation in Southern California.
Appendix F
63
Draft
PEACE RIVER
PEACE CANYON
PCN500
RUTH LAKE
MITSUE
KENNEDY
KDY
5CX3
LITTLE
SMOKY
LOUISE
CREEK
PRINCE RUPERT
WILLISTON
TELKWA
SKEENA
GLENANNAN
N. BARRHEAD
WHITEFISH
LAKE
DEERLAND
SAGITAWAH
N. CALDER
KITMAT
BARLOW
MARGUERITE
LAKE
LAMOUREUX
WABAMUN
CLOVERBAR
SUNDANCE
KEMANO
EAST EDMONTON
BICKERDIKE
ELLERSLIE
KEEPHILLS
BRAZEAU
SODA
CREEK
BATTLE
BAT RV79RIVER
METISKOW
BENALTO
MICA
100 MILE
HOUSE
M ETI S644
RED
DEER
KELLY
LAKE
SHEERNESS
REVELSTOKE
BRIDGE
RIVER
JANET
SARCEE
ASHTON
CREEK
SAVONA
LANGDON
EMPRESS
WARE
JTN.
JENNER
W. BROOKS
CHEEKYE
GOLD RIVER
NICOLA
MALASPINA
MERIDIAN
INVERMERE
CLAYBURN
NATAL
ROSEDALE
INGLEDOW
DUNSMUIR
PEIGAN
ARNOTT
CUSTER
L E G E N D:
N. LETHBRIDGE
NELWAY
CHIEF
JOE
MONROE
345KV
+-500KV
DC
500KV
CRANBROOK
SELKIRK
WANETA
WHALEACH
BOUNDARY
SAHTLAM
GRAND COULEE
230KV
115-161KV
HUNGRY HORSE
LIBBY
ECHO
LAKE
CAB
GORGE
ROCKY
REACH
NOXON
BELL
HOT
SPRINGS
RAVER
GREAT
FALLS
BENEWAH
SCHULTZ
OLYMPIA
PAUL /
CENTRALIA
TAFT
VANTAGE
MOSCOW
MIDWAY
LOW
MON
HANFORD
N
LEWISTON
LIT
GOOSE
ASHE
ROSS
THE
DALLES
KEELER
MILES CITY
DC TIE
GARRISON
LOLO
CUSTER
WALLA
WALLA
JOHN DAY
OSTRANDER
COLSTRIP
ANACONDA
BILLINGS
CROSSOVER
ENTERPRISE
SLATT
HELLS
CANYON
LAGRANDE
BOARDMAN
BUCKLEY
BROADVIEW
TOWNSEND
McNARY
(1169 MW)
ROUNDUP
PEARL
HATWAI
LOW
GRANITE
ALLSTON
OVANDO
DWORSHAK
BEAVER
YELLOWTAIL
OXBOW
BROWNLEE
SHERIDAN
PETERSON
FLATS
MARION
GRIZZLY
DILLON
WYODAK
BUFFALO
LANGE
OREGON
BASIN
ONTARIO
LANE
ALVEY
WEST
HILL
BURNS
AMPS
CALDWELL
THERMOPOLIS
BOISE
JEFFERSON
SUMMER
LAKE
DIXONVILLE
RESTON
GOSHEN
KINPORT
K-FALLS
MERIDIAN CO GEN
GRANTS
PASS
RIVERTON
DAVE JOHNSTON
BORAH
MIDPOINT
ATLANTIC
CITY
MALIN
BOYLE
COPCO
CASPER
SPENCE
CAPT
JACK
LONE
PINE
MUSTANG
LARAMIE
RIVER
TREASURETON
WEED
JCT
STEGAL
BRIDGER
MONUMENT
HUMBOLDT
VALMY
(562 MW)
HILL TOP
WARNER
CASCADE
PLATTE
ROCK
SPRINGS
NAUGHTON
SIDNEY
ARCHER
BEN
LOMOND
ROUND
MT
FLAMING
GORGE
OLINDA
AULT
CRAIG
TERMINAL
HAYDEN
90
SOUTH
BORDERTOWN
TRACY
BONANZA
IPP
AUSTIN
SMOKY HILL
DILLON
MONA
GONDER
FT
CHURCHILL
DRUM
PAWNEE
(530 MW)
CAMP
WILLIAMS
VALLEY
ROAD
TABLE
MT
STORY
VALMONT
RIFLE
MACHACEK
DANIELS PARK
MALTA
PAVANT
HUNTINGTON
HUNTER
SIGURD
VACADIXON
MONTROSE
TRACY
CURECANTI
MIDWAY
PONCHA
COMANCHE
TESLA
PINTO
RED
BUTTE
MOSS
LANDING
LOS
BANOS
NAVAJO
GLEN
CANYON
HARRY
ALLEN
GATES
SAN JUAN
FOUR CORNERS
MARKETPLACE
OJO
MCCULLOUGH
TAOS
MEAD
MOENKOPI
MIDWAY
NORTON
EL DORADO
DIABLO
B-A
P.E.G.S.
AMBROSIA
MOJAVE
ADELANTO
DAVIS
WEST
MESA
SELIGMAN
LEUPP
LEUPP
VICTORVILLE
ROUND
VALLEY
CAMINO
SYLMAR
MCKINLEY
FLAGSTAFF
CHOLLA
VINCENT
PARKER
EAGLE
MT.
LUGO
RINALDI
BLACKWATER
CORONADO
YAVAPAI
BLYTHE
DEVERS
MIRALOMA
SERRANO
PRESCOTT
SPRINGERVILLE
VALLEY
TABLE MESA
KNOB
WESTWING
ELCENTRO
MIGUEL
IMPERIAL
VALLEY
EL CENTRO
PALO VERDE
PINNACLE PEAK
NORTH GILA
SEMPRA
TIJUANA
GREENLEE
LIBERTY
ARTESIA
AMRAD
GILA
INTERGEN
METROPOLI
JUAREZ
KYRENE
SILVER
KING
SAGUARO
MEXICALI
LA
ROSITA
ARROYO
LUNA
TORTOLITA
SAN LUIS
SOUTH
HIDALGO
LOMAS
CIPRES
NEWMAN
VAIL
BICKNELL
CALIENTE
DIABLO
Figure F.4. 19: July 2013 average Locational Marginal Prices with Alternative 4 generation included,
no new transmission is included.
PEACE RIVER
PEACE CANYON
PCN500
RUTH LAKE
MITSUE
KENNEDY
KDY
5CX3
LITTLE
SMOKY
LOUISE
CREEK
PRINCE RUPERT
WILLISTON
TELKWA
SKEENA
GLENANNAN
N. BARRHEAD
WHITEFISH
LAKE
DEERLAND
SAGITAWAH
N. CALDER
KITMAT
BARLOW
MARGUERITE
LAKE
LAMOUREUX
WABAMUN
CLOVERBAR
SUNDANCE
KEMANO
EAST EDMONTON
BICKERDIKE
ELLERSLIE
KEEPHILLS
BRAZEAU
SODA
CREEK
BATTLE
BAT RV79RIVER
METISKOW
BENALTO
MICA
100 MILE
HOUSE
M ETI S644
RED
DEER
KELLY
LAKE
SHEERNESS
REVELSTOKE
BRIDGE
RIVER
JANET
SARCEE
ASHTON
CREEK
SAVONA
LANGDON
EMPRESS
WARE
JTN.
JENNER
W. BROOKS
CHEEKYE
GOLD RIVER
NICOLA
MALASPINA
MERIDIAN
INVERMERE
CLAYBURN
NATAL
ROSEDALE
INGLEDOW
DUNSMUIR
PEIGAN
ARNOTT
CUSTER
SELKIRK
WANETA
WHALEACH
L E G E N D:
N. LETHBRIDGE
NELWAY
BOUNDARY
SAHTLAM
CHIEF
JOE
MONROE
345KV
+-500KV
DC
500KV
CRANBROOK
GRAND COULEE
230KV
115-161KV
HUNGRY HORSE
LIBBY
ECHO
LAKE
CAB
GORGE
ROCKY
REACH
NOXON
BELL
HOT
SPRINGS
RAVER
GREAT
FALLS
BENEWAH
SCHULTZ
OLYMPIA
PAUL /
CENTRALIA
TAFT
VANTAGE
MOSCOW
MIDWAY
LOW
MON
HANFORD
N
LEWISTON
LIT
GOOSE
ASHE
ROSS
THE
DALLES
KEELER
MILES CITY
DC TIE
GARRISON
LOLO
CUSTER
WALLA
WALLA
JOHN DAY
OSTRANDER
COLSTRIP
ANACONDA
BILLINGS
CROSSOVER
ENTERPRISE
SLATT
HELLS
CANYON
LAGRANDE
BUCKLEY
BROADVIEW
TOWNSEND
McNARY
(1169 MW)
ROUNDUP
PEARL
HATWAI
LOW
GRANITE
ALLSTON
OVANDO
DWORSHAK
BEAVER
BOARDMAN
YELLOWTAIL
OXBOW
BROWNLEE
SHERIDAN
PETERSON
FLATS
MARION
GRIZZLY
DILLON
WYODAK
BUFFALO
LANGE
OREGON
BASIN
ONTARIO
LANE
ALVEY
WEST
HILL
BURNS
AMPS
CALDWELL
THERMOPOLIS
BOISE
JEFFERSON
SUMMER
LAKE
DIXONVILLE
RESTON
K-FALLS
MERIDIAN CO GEN
GRANTS
PASS
RIVERTON
GOSHEN
KINPORT
DAVE JOHNSTON
BORAH
MIDPOINT
ATLANTIC
CITY
MALIN
BOYLE
COPCO
CASPER
SPENCE
CAPT
JACK
LONE
PINE
MUSTANG
LARAMIE
RIVER
TREASURETON
WEED
JCT
STEGAL
BRIDGER
HILL TOP
CASCADE
PLATTE
MONUMENT
HUMBOLDT
VALMY
(562 MW)
WARNER
ROCK
SPRINGS
NAUGHTON
SIDNEY
ARCHER
BEN
LOMOND
ROUND
MT
FLAMING
GORGE
OLINDA
AULT
CRAIG
TERMINAL
HAYDEN
90
SOUTH
BORDERTOWN
TABLE
MT
STORY
VALMONT
TRACY
BONANZA
IPP
AUSTIN
SMOKY HILL
DILLON
MONA
GONDER
FT
CHURCHILL
DRUM
PAWNEE
(530 MW)
CAMP
WILLIAMS
VALLEY
ROAD
RIFLE
MACHACEK
DANIELS PARK
MALTA
PAVANT
HUNTINGTON
HUNTER
SIGURD
VACADIXON
MONTROSE
TRACY
CURECANTI
PONCHA
MIDWAY
COMANCHE
TESLA
PINTO
RED
BUTTE
MOSS
LANDING
LOS
BANOS
NAVAJO
GLEN
CANYON
HARRY
ALLEN
GATES
FOUR CORNERS
SAN JUAN
MARKETPLACE
OJO
MCCULLOUGH
TAOS
MEAD
MOENKOPI
MIDWAY
NORTON
EL DORADO
DIABLO
B-A
P.E.G.S.
AMBROSIA
MOJAVE
ADELANTO
DAVIS
WEST
MESA
SELIGMAN
LEUPP
LEUPP
VICTORVILLE
ROUND
VALLEY
CAMINO
SYLMAR
FLAGSTAFF
CHOLLA
VINCENT
PARKER
EAGLE
MT.
LUGO
RINALDI
MCKINLEY
YAVAPAI
BLACKWATER
CORONADO
BLYTHE
DEVERS
MIRALOMA
SERRANO
PRESCOTT
SPRINGERVILLE
VALLEY
TABLE MESA
KNOB
MIGUEL
WESTWING
ELCENTRO
IMPERIAL
VALLEY
EL CENTRO
PALO VERDE
PINNACLE PEAK
NORTH GILA
TIJUANA
JUAREZ
SEMPRA
METROPOLI
INTERGEN
LIBERTY
ARTESIA
AMRAD
KYRENE
SAGUARO
SILVER
KING
ARROYO
LUNA
TORTOLITA
SAN LUIS
CIPRES
GREENLEE
GILA
MEXICALI
LA
ROSITA
SOUTH
HIDALGO
LOMAS
BICKNELL
NEWMAN
VAIL
CALIENTE
DIABLO
Figure F.4. 20: July 2013 average Locational Marginal Prices with Alternative 4 generation and new
transmission is included.
Appendix F
64
Draft
Recommendations
The analysis of the four alternatives led to two recommendations. The recommendations
represent transmission build that is benefits the region of the Rocky Mountain States by
creating low cost power to serve its load and to produce low cost power to export to West
Coast Regions. Both Recommendations use the Alternatives as a starting point.
Recommendation 1 assumes the same generation as Alternative 1 and includes a majority
of the same transmission. Recommendation 2 on the other hand is the same as
Alternative 3. The next section covers detailed results and assumptions for
Recommendation 1. Refer to the Alternative 3 discussion for results on Recommendation
2
Recommendation 1
Recommendation 1 has the same resource configuration as Alternative 2, although the
transmission configuration is slightly different, in that this transmission configuration
exports power from Montana to the Northwest instead of moving it south to Idaho. The
other change from Alternative 2 is that only one 345kV line is necessary between
Wyoming and Colorado. This is because TAWG agreed that a compensated 345kV line
would be sufficient to send power to Colorado. The transmission assumed in
Recommendation 1 is shown in Figure F.4.21. An area breakout of the results is found in
Table F.4.9. The top congested paths, based on if no new transmission were added are
outlined in F.4.10. Further detail on Recommendation 1 can be found in Chapter 3.
Modified Interface
Montana to
NW
Taft
280 Wind
West of
Broadview
Townsend
West of
Colstrip
Broadview
Garrison
Added Resource
Montana Upgrades
50 Wind
Colstrip
250 Coal
Added 345 kV Line
Added Series
Compensation Only
359 Coal
250 Wind
Borah West
125 Wind
Midpoint
700 Coal
Antelope Mine
Path C
West of
Bridger
Treasureton
100 Wind
Black Hills to
C. Wyoming
Dave Johnston
575 Coal
LRS
Jim Bridger
Ben Lomond
West of
Naughton
Naughton
Miners
500 Wind
Cheyenne Tap
1150 Wind
TOT 4A
TOT 3
Ault
575 Coal
Bridger Expansion
C Wyoming to
LRS
Bridger E
New WY- CO lines
TOT 7
Green Valley
140 Gas
210 Gas
500 Coal
500 Wind
Figure F.4. 21: Resource and Transmission Additions assumed in Recommendation 1
Appendix F
65
Draft
Table F.4. 9: Recommendation 1 area production costs (dollars in millions)
ID
Area
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
18
19
20
22
23
24
25
26
28
29
30
32
33
New Mexico
Arizona
Nevada
WAPA- LC
Mexico
Imperial
San Diego
So. California
LADWP
IPP
PG AND E
Northwest
BC Hydro
Aquila
Alberta
Idaho- West
Montana- West
Sierra
Wyoming- Central
Bonanza
Utah- North
Utah- South
Colorado- East
Colorado- West
Black Hills
Laramie River Station
Jim Bridger
Broadview
Colstrip- Crossover
Total
Recommendation
1
451
3,945
1,170
458
879
18
778
1,469
287
253
3,312
2,165
532
32
1,432
4
238
76
68
162
430
758
200
61
83
307
37
177
19,780
Table F.4. 10: Recommendation 1 interface utilization results
Row
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Appendix F
Interface Name
Black Hills to C Wyoming
TOT 3
BRIDGER WEST
WEST OF BROADVIEW
West of Naughton (E-S&W)
ALBERTA - BRITISH COLUMBIA
TOT 2C
North of Miguel
WOR -n- El Dor to Lugo
MONTANA - NORTHWEST
PATH C
BONANZA WEST
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO (NM1)
Laramie River to C Wyomong
Combined PACI & PDCI
NW to Canada, East BC
COI
East of Bridger
Recommendation 1
Opportunity Cost
($)
5,292
13,907
7,353
617
48,445
50,392
42,370
44,122
17,343
12,619
18,694
11,068
12,740
3,112
4,283
% Time at
Capacity
0%
6%
10%
6%
0%
70%
26%
64%
60%
10%
0%
9%
22%
0%
21%
9%
26%
2%
66
Draft
Reference Cases
Two reference cases were created to compare economics between the remote
generation/transmission intensive recommendations and alternatives that do not rely on
new transmission. These reference cases avoid or minimize new transmission investment
primarily by locating new generation near loads.
The reference cases differ in the type and location of resource additions in the Rocky
Mountain region. The All-Gas Reference Case assumes that load growth is met through
new gas-fired generation. The IRP-Based Reference Case includes new gas-fired
generation, but also new coal generation, primarily at existing sites, and new wind
resources. The reference cases are similar in that both add the same overall resource
capacity, and both use the same gas and coal fuel prices and hydro condition
assumptions. Both cases assume that generation additions outside the Rocky Mountain
States after 2008 will take the form of gas-fired generation located near loads. Both cases
also include no significant transmission investment other than for resource integration.
As a result, the reference cases bracket a range of potential outcomes that would occur if
little new transmission were built.
All-Gas Reference Case: This case assumes that load growth in the Rocky Mountain
States for the 2008 to 2013 period will be met exclusively by adding gas-fired generation
located close to load centers. Capital investment in this case is limited to gas-fired
generation additions and associated interconnection costs.
The All-Gas Reference Case is representative of the recent past. In the 1990’s nearly all
load growth in the West was met by building gas-fired plants. The All-Gas Reference
Case presumes this trend will continue, and it is akin to a “do-nothing” case from a
transmission expansion perspective. This case is useful for comparing the fuel and
investment costs of alternative resources, and for measuring the value of diversifying
fuels.
Table F.4.11 is a breakdown of production costs for each area studied.
Appendix F
67
Draft
Table F.4. 11: Gas Reference Case area production costs (dollars in millions)
ID
Area
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
28
29
30
32
33
New Mexico
Arizona
Nevada
WAPA- LC
Mexico
Imperial
San Diego
So. California
LADWP
IPP
PG AND E
Northwest
BC Hydro
Aquila
Alberta
Idaho- West
Montana- West
Sierra
Wyoming- Central
Wyoming- SW
Bonanza
Utah- North
Utah- South
Colorado- East
Colorado- West
Black Hills
Laramie River Station
Jim Bridger
Broadview
Colstrip- Crossover
Total
IRP Based Reference
Case
453
4,022
1,130
470
880
19
803
1,502
302
253
3,377
2,247
544
32
1,443
103
8
241
50
15
76
359
745
1,134
210
74
83
261
17
165
21,018
IRP-Based Reference Case: This case is based on resource additions in the integrated
resource plans of LSE’s in the Rocky Mountain States, where available. Where IRPs are
not available, wind capacity is assumed to fill the gap. The IRP-Based Reference Case
presumes significant wind and some coal resources are added. Because little
transmission is added in the IRP-Based Reference Case, wind generation additions are
limited by transmission capacity and the physical ability of coal plants to rapidly cycle to
meet changes in the output of wind generators3. Consequently, production costs are
substantially lower than in the All-Gas Reference Case because of lower fuel costs.
3
There may be new coal generation technologies that could minimize the problem of cycling coal plants to
accommodate more wind generation, such as Integrated Gasification/Combined Cycle (IGCC) coal plants
coupled with temporary gas storage capability that would enable the gasification process to operate
continuously, but the burning of the gas to generate electricity could better match periods of slack wind
generation.
Appendix F
68
Draft
Capital requirements are higher than in the All-Gas Reference case because of the higher
up-front cost of remote coal and wind units.
The IRP-based case is a compilation of existing IRPs, and as such, represents the current
planning path for major LSEs in the RMATS footprint; but they may, however, not
include the transmission investment that would be required to integrate the wind and
other resources they propose. Table F.4.12 represents the production costs for each of the
areas modeled for this study.
Table F.4. 12: IRP Based Reference Case area production costs (dollars in millions)
Appendix F
ID
Area
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
18
19
20
22
23
24
25
26
28
29
30
32
33
New Mexico
Arizona
Nevada
WAPA- LC
Mexico
Imperial
San Diego
So. California
LADWP
IPP
PG AND E
Northwest
BC Hydro
Aquila
Alberta
Idaho- West
Montana- West
Sierra
Wyoming- Central
Bonanza
Utah- North
Utah- South
Colorado- East
Colorado- West
Black Hills
Laramie River Station
Jim Bridger
Broadview
Colstrip- Crossover
Total
IRP Based
Reference Case
451
3,976
1,166
453
880
18
788
1,504
298
274
3,331
2,198
540
32
1,435
73
237
64
68
167
534
775
200
59
83
261
17
165
20,046
69