PROPERTY PRICES IN FRANCE IN THE LONG RUN
Updated January 8, 2016
Updates
@PrixImmoCgedd
In French
Page 1
Updates of the charts of this presentation about home prices in France and various papers about property prices in France in the long run
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Long run data: 1200-2012 (Paris) and 1800-2010 (France).
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SYNTHESIS
Existing-home price index, amount of sales and index of the number of sales, and rent index, relative to their respective long run trend
1,9
1,8
1,7
1,6
1,5
1,4
Synthesis:
existing-home price index, amount and number of sales
and rent index
relative to their long run trend
Existing-home price index
Auxtunnel 1
Total amount of existing-home sales
Auxtunnel 1
Number of existing-home sales
Auxtunnel 1
Rent index
Price
Relative to
their long
run trend
Total
amount
of sales
1,3
1,2
1,1
Rents
1
0,9
Number
of sales
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,5
1/1 1965
1/1 1970
1/1 1975
1/1 1980
1/1 1985
1/1 1990
1/1 1995
1/1 2000
1/1 2005
1/1 2010
1/1 2015
1/1 2020
Source: CGEDD after Tax Department, INSEE, notaries’ databases, seasonally adjusted Notaires-INSEE indices. About existing-home sale price, amount and number, see § 2 of this file
about property prices in France in the long run (in English) and § 2.3.1.1., 5.1.2. and 5.2.1. of this paper about house prices in France in the long run (in French), revised by this paper (in French). About the
relative growth of income per household and rents in France, see this paper about Rents and Income per Household since 1970 (in French).
1. SINCE 1800
Page 2
1.1. Home price index in constant currency
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
Home price index (France and Paris)
in constant currency
1.2. Total amount of home sales as a % of gross domestic product
1965
1914
14%
Basis 2000=1
Home price index France
Home price index Paris
3
Disposable income per household France
1/1/3800
1/1/3800
Temporary
1/1/3800
increase
in interest
1/1/3800
rates after
1/1/3800
1870
1/1/3800
Crimea
defeat
1/1/3800
w ar
1/1/3800
1/1/3800
1/1/3800
1/1/3800
1/1/3800
1/1/3800
1/1/3800
1/1/3800
1/1
1/1
1/1/3800
1850
1900
1/1/3800
1/1/3800
1/1/3800
Auxabscisse 0,1
2
1
0,9
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
1/1
1800
12%
Exit
from
rent
controls
Rent
controls
+ inflation
2.21, Q3 2015
Total amount
of property sales
as a % of gross domestic product
1965
1914
sales of any type of property
(residential and commercial, old and new, incl. land)
subject to transaction tax, cumulated on 12 months
Nov. 2015: 11.4%
1.62, Q3 2015
1844
1990
1914
1948
10%
1965
1881
1853
1930-35
" safe
haven"
out of 1940-44
stocks
" safe
haven"
against
inflation
Nov. 2015: 8.8%
8%
1831
1980
Nov. 2015: 7.0%
6%
1848
1995
1871
1/1
1950
1/1
2000
1/1
2050
1984
4%
Total
Of w hich taxed at the current regular rate and antecedent rates
Of w hich existing homes
Auxabscisse
2%
1948
0% 1/1
1800
Source CGEDD after INSEE, notaries’ databases, seasonally adjusted Notaires-INSEE indices, Duon, Toutain, Villa (CEPII).
1.3. Value of an investment in stocks relative to long term trend (**)
Jul. 1825
100
90
80
70
60
50
1/1
1950
1/1
2000
1/1
2050
Source: CGEDD after Tax Department, INSEE and Toutain. By exception, rates other than the regular rate apply to some donations. Cf. [13], [15].
1.4. Inflation and long term interest rate
60%
Sep. 1881
Nov. 1858
1/1
1900
Inflation and long term interest rate
Mar.
1831
40
30
20
Dec. 1841
1/1
1850
1915
Mar. Apr.
1814 1815
Nov.
1870
Mar.
1848
Value of investments in French and US stocks
relative to the long term trend
Jul.
1914
50%
Average inflation on last 10 years
Long term interest rate on gov't debt
End-of-month values
40%
Jan.
1929
Inflation
Auxabscisse 0
Jan.
1943
30%
10
9
8
7
6
5
May
1926
20%
French stocks
US stocks
4
Sep.
0,5
1939
0,4
3
10%
Jun.
Dec.
Sep.
0,6
1965
1999
1929
Jun.
Nov.
0,7
Jun.
1881
2 1802
Dec.
1835
Feb.
Aug.
0,8
1852
Dec. 2015: 0.97%
Nov.
1937
1987
0,9
1916
0%
Nov. 2015: 0.0%
1
1/1
1/1
1/1
1/1
1/1
1/1
Dec. 2015: 0.93
1
2
0,9
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
0,8
Dec. 2015: 0.75
3
0,7
-10%
4
0,6
Jun.
Dec.
0,5
5 Mar.
1877
Jun.
1814
1842
Apr. 1949
Feb. 2009
6
0,4
Dec. 1920
1942
Aug. 1982
1/1
1/1 Oct. 1857
1/1
1/1
1/1
1/1
Jun.
7
1932
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050 -20%
8
9
Source: CGEDD after Arbulu,
Schwert, Shiller, EuroNext, S&P, Chabert, Lévy-Leboyer, INSEE, STAT-USA and US Department of Labor.
Source : CGEDD after Vaslin, Loutchitch, Banque de France (TMO then TME), Chabert, Lévy-Leboyer and INSEE.
10value of an investment in US stocks has been winding around a long term trend which grows by 6.6% per year plus inflation. In the 19th century, the value of an investment in French stocks wound around a
(**) Since 1802, the
parallel long term 20
trend; from 1914 to 1965, it crumbled relative to this long term trend; since 1965, it has been winding around the same long term trend as US stocks. Cf. [2], [4].
30
40
2. SINCE 1965
2.1.
1,9 Price index, amount and number of existing-home sales
Home price index, amount of sales
and index of the number of sales
relative to their long run trend
Existing homes
1,8
1,7
1,6
1,5
1,4
Page 3
2
Existing home-price index (last 3 months)
Auxtunnel 1
Total amount of existing-home sales (last 12 months)
Auxtunnel 1
Number of existing-home sales (last 12 months)
Auxtunnel 1
2.2. International comparison
Price
1.67
Q3 2015
Relative to
their long
run trend
Total
amount
France
USA (FHFA)
USA (S&P/C-S)
UK (DCLG)
UK (Halifax)
Germany (Destatis)
Germany (Gewos)
Spain
Netherlands
Aux 0,9
Aux 1,1
Auxtunnel 1
International comparison:
home price index relative to
disposable income per household
Basis 2000=1
1,5
1.34
Nov. 2015
1,3
1,2
1,1
1,1
1
1
0,9
0,9
Number
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,5
1/1 1965
0,5
1/1 1970
1/1 1975
1/1 1980
1/1 1985
1/1 1990
1/1 1995
1/1 2000
1/1 2005
1/1 2010
1/1 2015
1/1 2020
1/1 1965
1/1 1970
1/1 1975
1/1 1980
1/1 1985
1/1 1990
1/1 1995
1/1 2000
1/1 2005
1/1 2010
1/1 2015
1/1 2020
Source: CGEDD after INSEE, notaries’ databases, seasonally adjusted Notaires-INSEE indices and Tax Department
Source: CGEDD after INSEE, notaries’ databases, seasonally adjusted Notaires-INSEE indices, Freddie Mac, FHFA, R. Shiller,
The long term trend by which we divide the home price index is the disposable income per household, in parallel S&P/C-S, Census Bureau, Bureau sof Economic Analysis,and of Labor Statistics, UK Office for National Statistics, HBOS,
to which it has been growing from 1965 to 2001, cf. [2], [4]. About the long term trend by which we divide the
Destatis, Gewos, INE, Ministerio de Fomento, R. Vergés, Centraal Bureau Voor de Statistiek. The methodology of an index
amount of sales of existing homes (total of the amount of all sales) and the number of sales of existing homes,
see [13].
may impact its long term trend: the differences in the long term trends of the various indices shown on this chart
may be caused at least in part by differences in methodology. Cf. [2], [4], [6].
2.3. Home price index and rent index
2.4. Comparison per area
2,7
1,8
2,6
1,7
Home price index and rent index
relative to disposable income per household
France, basis 2000=1
2,5
2,4
2,3
1,6
Home price index relative to disposable
income per household, basis 2000=1
Rent index relative to disposable
income per household, basis 2000=1
1,5
2,2
1,3
1,2
2.38
(Paris,
Q3 15)
Auxtunnel 0
Differentiation Paris / Region of Paris / Province
Auxtunnel 0,9
Auxtunnel 1
Auxtunnel 1,1
Base 1965=1
1.98
(Paris
Region,
Q3 15)
2
NB1: the perimeters of the rent index and the price index are
Auxtunnel 0,9
different => bias => dividing the former by the latter does not
yield
a gross rental
Auxtunnel
1 income index.
NB2: the divider is the average income per household of all
Auxtunnel 1,1
households, whether tenants or owner-occupiers. Tenants'
income per household grows slower than all households'.
NB3: many structure effects.
1,4
relative to disposable income per household
2,1
Auxtunnel 0
France
Paris
Region of Paris
Province
Home price index
1,9
1,8
1,7
NB: the divider of all four ratios is the disposable
income per household over all of France
1.67
(France,
Q3 15)
1,6
1.55
(Province,
Q3 15)
1,5
1,4
1,3
1,1
1,2
1
1,1
0,9
0,9
Tunnel
1
0,8
0,8
1/1 1965
0,7
1/1 1970
1/1 1975
1/1 1980
1/1 1985
1/1 1990
1/1 1995
1/1 2000
1/1 2005
1/1 2010
1/1 2015
1/1 2020
Source: CGEDD after INSEE, notaries’ databases and seasonally adjusted Notaires-INSEE indices. Cf. [2], [3] and [4].
1/1 1965
1/1 1970
1/1 1975
1/1 1980
1/1 1985
1/1 1990
1/1 1995
1/1 2000
1/1 2005
1/1 2010
1/1 2015
1/1 2020
Source: CGEDD after INSEE, notaries’ databases and seasonally adjusted Notaires-INSEE indices. “Province” means
France minus the region of Paris. Cf. [2].
The abscissas are the middle of the basis of the quantities represented. Example: on chart 2.1., the 12 month-cumulated amount of transactions at end December 2008 relative to its long term trend is shown on abscissa July
1st, 2008.
Page 4
3. Home price index and home purchase finance
3.1. Home price index
1,5
3.2. Affordability index
2
1,4
1,9
1,8
Affordability index
Basis 1965=1
Home price index
relative to disposable income per household
1,3
France, basis 1965=1
1,7
1,6
1,2
Home price index relative to disposable income per
household, basis 1965=1
Auxtunnel 0
1,5
1,1
Auxtunnel 0,9
1,4
Auxtunnel 1
1,3
Auxtunnel 1,1
1
0,9
1,2
1,1
1
0,8
Affordability index at nominal interest rate
Affordability index at 'real' interest rate
Auxtunnel 1
Tunnel
0,7
0,9
0,6
0,8
1/1 1965
1/1 1970
1/1 1975
1/1 1980
1/1 1985
1/1 1990
1/1 1995
1/1 2000
1/1 2005
1/1 2010
1/1 2015
1/1 2020
Source: CGEDD after INSEE, notaries’ databases and seasonally adjusted Notaires-INSEE indices.
1/1 1965
1/1 1970
1/1 1975
1/1 1980
1/1 1985
1/1 1990
1/1 1995
1/1 2000
1/1 2005
1/1 2010
1/1 2015
1/1 2020
Source: CGEDD after INSEE, notaries’ databases, seasonally adjusted Notaires-INSEE indices & Banque de France.
Comparing this chart to chart 3.3. below shows that periods when interest rates (nominal or net of inflation) have
been low (resp. high) (chart 2.3.) have not coincided particularly with periods when the home price index has
been high (resp. low) with respect to its long term trend (chart 2.1.). Although counter-intuitive, this
phenomenon is the fundament of the diversifying power of housing investment with respect to bond investment.
Cf. [2], [4].
20%
3.3 Interest rate and inflation
The
“affordability index at nominal interest rate” reflects the quantity of existing housing a household may purchase for
a given initial monthly mortgage payment relative to its income and a given deposit relative to its income. It is
assumed that, in 1965, the purchase was financed 50% by a mortgage (15 year fixed rate), 25% by home resale
and 25% by a deposit. When inflation is high (1968-1985), we use the “affordability index at real interest rate”
which is similar but assumes that the mortgage interest rate is equal to the nominal interest rate minus the inflation
rate. This is fancy (in part because the real interest rate can be negative when inflation is high) but partly reflects
the impact of expected inflation (assumed equal to past 12 month inflation) on the initial mortgage payment
accepted by borrowers and lenders. Housing subsidies are not included (their impact is small compared to the
volatility of the index). Cf. § 2.3.3. of [2] and [4].
3.4 Mortgage length to purchase the same dwelling, first-time buyer
15%
45 years
Long Term Interest Rate and Inflation
40 years
Interest rate
Inflation
Interest rate minus inflation
10%
Mortgage length to purchase the same existing dwelling with the same deposit to
income and initial payment to income ratios, basis 1965=15 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
5%
21.4,
Q3 2015
20 years
15 years
10 years
0%
1/1 1965
1/1 1970
1/1 1975
1/1 1980
1/1 1985
1/1 1990
1/1 1995
1/1 2000
1/1 2005
1/1 2010
1/1 2015
1/1 2020
5 years
Mortgage length 'at nominal interest rate'
Mortgage length 'at real interest rate'
0 years
-5%
1/1 1965
1/1 1970
1/1 1975
1/1 1980
1/1 1985
1/1 1990
1/1 1995
1/1 2000
1/1 2005
1/1 2010
1/1 2015
1/1 2020
Source: CGEDD after INSEE and Banque de France (TMO before 1989, TME from 1989 to 2003, interest rate on residential Source: CGEDD after INSEE, notaries’ databases, seasonally adjusted Notaires-INSEE indices & Banque de France. The
mortages with an initial fixed-rate period longer than 1year fom 2004).
deposit is assumed equal to 10% of the price in 1965 and growing like the income per household. The balance is
financed by a mortgage (no home resale since this is a first time purchase). Excluding housing subsidies (their
impact is small compared to the volatility of the index). About the “length at interest rate net of inflation”, cf. chart
3.2. above. Cf. § 2.3.3. of [2].
4. Volumes
4.1. Number of property sales taxed at the regular transaction tax rate
Page 5
4.2. Rotation speed of housing stock
Cumul.
last 3 months
Cumul.
last 12 month
1 200 000
300 000
Number of
property sales
taxed at the
regular transaction
tax rate
1 000 000
3,5%
Rotation speed of individuals' housing stock
(average on last 12 months)
1 122 000
(Nov. 15)
3,0%
250 000
All types of
property
Of which
existing-homes
800 000
792 000 200 000
(Nov. 15)
600 000
150 000
2,5%
Meaning: in 1999, 3.04%
of dwellings held by
individuals were sold.
2,0%
Number of property sales
taxed at the regular transaction
tax rate, all types of property:
existing
homes,
existing
commercial property and VATexempt land
400 000
200 000
100 000
Of which existing homes
1,5%
Left scale
Cumul. last 12 months
Cumul last 12 months
Right scale
Cumul. last 3 months (deseas.)
Cumul. last 3 months (deseas.)
NB: the rotation speed is the number of sales of existing dwellings divided by the number of dwellings held by individuals
(dwellings held by private of public coporations being rarely sold, it seems preferable to exclude them from the ratio).
Prior to 1992, the number of sales of existing dwellings is known only by an approximate retropolation
50 000
1,0%
0
1/ 1965
1/ 1970
1/ 1975
1/ 1980
1/ 1985
1/ 1990
1/ 1995
1/ 2000
1/ 2005
1/ 2010
1/ 2015
0
1/ 2020
1/1 1965
1/1 1970
1/1 1975
1/1 1980
1/1 1985
1/1 1990
1/1 1995
1/1 2000
1/1 2005
1/1 2010
1/1 2015
1/1 2020
Source: CGEDD after CGDD/SOeS (Existan), Tax Department (MEDOC & Fidji) and notaries’ databases. Numbers are rounded to the nearest ‘000 but should not be considered accurate to the ‘000. The precision of the
estimates is lower prior to 1992. Sales taxed at the regular transaction tax rate include not only existing-home sales (which represent around 2/3 of the total number and 80% of the total amount on average over all of France),
but also sales of commercial properties and of VAT-exempt constructible land. “Province” means France minus the region of Paris. Cf. [14], [16], [18].
4.3. Yearly change in the number of property sales taxed at the regular transaction
tax rate, whether residential or not
4.4. Amount of existing-home sales and mortgages
14%
40% 12-month change in the 12-month and 3-month cumulated
number of sales taxed at the regular transaction tax rate
13%
30%
12%
Amounts of existing-home sales and mortgages
as a % of households' disposable income,
last 12 month cumulated
12-month change in the 12-month cumulated number
12-month change in the 3-month cumulated number
20%
11%
Sales
10%
Mortgages
9%
10%
8%
7%
0%
12/ 04
12/ 05
12/ 06
12/ 07
12/ 08
12/ 09
12/ 10
-10%
12/ 11
12/ 12
12/ 13
12/ 14
12/ 15
6%
5%
4%
-20%
3%
2%
-30%
1%
0%
-40%
Source: CGEDD after Tax Department (MEDOC & Fidji). Cf. [16].
1/1 1965
1/1 1970
1/1 1975
1/1 1980
1/1 1985
1/1 1990
1/1 1995
1/1 2000
Source : CGEDD after Tax Department (MEDOC) and Insee. Cf. [13].
1/1 2005
1/1 2010
1/1 2015
1/1 2020
Mortgage and government debt interest rates
5%
Mortgage debt
outstanding
6%
Page 6
5.2. Households’ new and outstanding mortgages 5.3. Households’ mortgage debt and gov’t debt
New
mortgages
5. Debt
5.1. Households’ mortgage debt and gov’t debt interest rates
Households' new mortgages
and mortgage debt outstanding
as a % of households' gross disposable income
16%
80%
14%
Oct. 15
70%
70%
12%
60%
10%
50%
8%
40%
6%
30%
4%
20%
100%
80%
Households' mortgage debt
and Maastricht government debt
Sep.15
97%
Households'mortgage debt as a % of
households'disposable income
Maastricht general government debt
as a % of gross domestic product
4%
3%
(1) Long term gov't debt interest rate (*)
Oct. 15
70%
60%
(2) Fixed-rate mortgage interest rate (**)
2%
40%
Spread (2)-(1)
Spread (2)-(1), smoothed over 12 months
1%
2%
0%
1/12
1999
1/12 1/12
2000 2001
1/12 1/12
2002 2003
1/12 1/12
2004 2005
1/12
2006
1/12 1/12
2007 2008
1/12 1/12
2009 2010
1/12 1/12
2011 2012
1/12 1/12
2013 2014
1/12
2015
(*) TME
(**) Interest rate on new residential mortages, initial fixed-rate period longer than 1year
-1%
Source: CGEDD after Banque de France and INSEE
New mortgages (12-month cum.)
0%
1,2%
1,25
1,2
Region of Paris minus Paris
Province
1/1
1/1
1/1
1/1
1/1
1/1
1/1
1/1
1/1
1/1
1/1
1/1
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Source : CGEDD after Banque de France and INSEE. Cf. [19].
900 000
6.2. Existing and new: number of existing dwellings sold and of new dwellings started
800 000
Apartment price index
relative to
detached house price index
Basis Q4 2000=1
0%
0%
1/1 1/1 1/1 1/1 1/1 1/1 1/1 1/1 1/1 1/1 1/1 1/1
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Source : CGEDD after Banque de France and INSEE. Cf. [19].
1,3
1,4%
10%
Mortgage debt outstanding (right scale)
6. Miscellaneous
5.4. Builders’ debt as a % of GDP 6.1. Apartments vs detached houses: relative
change in the price indices
1,6%
Builders'
outstanding debt
as a % of
gross domestic product
20%
700 000
Sales of EXISTING dwellings
and NEW dwelling starts
792 000
Nov. 2015
Number of EXISTING dwellings sold
Number of NEW housing units started (*)
Change in the number of households
600 000
12 month cumul. (*) Excl. overseas depts prior to 2000
1,0%
500 000
0,8%
1,15
400 000
0,6%
Series change
in 2000
351 000
Nov. 2015
1,1
300 000
0,4%
1,05
200 000
0,2%
1
100 000
0,0%
1/1
1/1
1/1
1/1
1/1
1/1
1/1 0,95
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1/1 1995
0
1/1 1950
1/1 1960
1/1 1970
1/1 1980
1/1 1990
1/1 2000
1/1 2010
1/1 2020
1/1 2000
1/1 2005
1/1 2010
1/1 2015
1/1 2020
Source: CGEDD after Banque de France and INSEE Source: CGEDD after Notaires-INSEE indices corr. for seasonal varns. Source: CGEDD after notaries’ database, Tax Department, CGDD/SOeS and Insee. Cf. [14], [16], [18], [30].
From 1965 to 2000, apartment prices grew slower than detached house The elasticity of home prices with respect to the number of dwellings being around -1 to -2, the number of dwellings built impacts
prices by around 1.5% per year in « province » and 1% per year in the home prices only marginally, as pointed in this paper, cf. [11].
region of Paris minus Paris. Cf. [12]. The sharp increase in home prices About the relationship between housing potential demand and growth in the number of households, cf.[30].
from 2002 has coincided with an inversion of this long term trend.
7. References
Page 7
* Long Run Investment
[1] Long Run (1800-2010) Series: numerical values used to make the charts above.
[2] « Le prix des logements sur le long terme » (« Home Prices in the Long Run »), J. Friggit, CGEDD, 2010.
[3] « Loyers et revenus depuis les années 1970 », J. Friggit, CGEDD, 2013.
[4] « Long Term (1800-2005) Investment in Gold, Bonds, Stocks and Housing in France – with Insights into the USA and the UK: a Few Regularities », J.Friggit, CGEDD, 2007.
[5] « Placements en actions et en logement: quelques régularités sur longue période » (« Investments in Stocks and Dwellings : some Regularities in the Long Run »), J.Friggit, Réflexions Immobilières
n°33, 2002.
* Home Prices in the Long Term
[6] « Comparing Four Secular Home Price Indices », J. Friggit, CGEDD, 2008.
[7] « Documents sur le problème du logement » (« Documents about the Housing Problem»), G.Duon, Études Économiques, National Statistical Service, Ministry of the Economy, 1946, n°1.
* Home Prices in the Recent Past
[8] Notaires-INSEE indices of existing home prices: complete historical values and methodology in English (INSEE Méthodes n° 111).
[9] « Managing Hedonic Housing Price Indices : the French Experience », C. Gouriéroux & A. Laferrère, OECD-IMF Workshop on Real Estate Price Indexes, Paris, Nov. 2006,
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/2/24/37583497.pdf.
[10] « La saisonnalité du prix des logements » (« Home Price Seasonality »), J.Friggit, short paper, Études Foncières n° 121, 2006.
[11] « L’élasticité du prix des logements par rapport à leur nombre » (« The Elasticity of Home Prices with Respect to their Number »), J. Friggit, CGEDD, 2015.
[12] « Evolution relative du prix des appartements et du prix des maisons : l’inversion de 2001 » (« Apartment versus House Price Trend : the Inversion of 2001 »), J. Friggit, CGEDD, 2011.
* Amounts and Number of Property Sales and of Existing-home Sales
[13] « Droits de mutation et montant des transactions immobilières - 1800-2008 » (« Property Transaction Taxes and Amounts of Transactions, 1800-2008 »), J.Friggit, CGEDD, 2009
[14] « Le montant et le nombre des transactions de logements anciens depuis 1967 et leurs « tendances longues » », J. Friggit, CGEDD, 2015.
[15] Calculation of the property transaction tax base : method
[16] Methodology for estimating the number of property sales, « Diverses évaluations du nombre de transactions de logements anciens », J. Friggit, CGEDD, 2008 and « Estimation du nombre de
transactions de logements anciens à finalité conjoncturelle », J. Friggit, CGEDD, 2008.
[17] Property transaction tax base, per department, month and tax type since 2000 (Tax Department - MEDOC) (data)
[18] Number of existing-home sales since 1967 (data).
* Households’ mortgage debt
[19] « Projection à horizon 2030 de la dette immobilière des ménages » (« Projection to 2030 of Households’ Mortgage Debt »), J. Friggit, CGEDD, 2010.
* Stock prices and interest rates in the long term
[20] « La Bourse de Paris au XIXe siècle » (the Paris Stockmarket in the 19th Century) , P. Arbulu, Connaissances et Savoirs, 2007, book based on « Le marché parisien des actions au XIXème siècle:
performance et efficience d'un marché émergent » (« Paris Stockmarket in the 19th Century : Performance and Efficiency of an Emerging Market »), P.Arbulu, dissertation for a doctorate in management,
Orléans University, 1998.
[21] « Le marché financier français au XIXe siècle », (« the French Financial Market in the 19th Century »), collective, directed by P.-C. Hautcoeur et G. Gallais-Hamonno, Publ. de la Sorbonne, 2007.
[22] « Le marché des rentes françaises au XIXème siècle et la crédibilité financière de l’État » (« the French Government Bond Market in the 19th Century and the Financial Credibility of the State »), J.M. Vaslin, dissertation for a doctorate in management, Orléans University, 1999.
[23] « Des variations des taux d’intérêt en France de 1800 à nos jours » (« Interest Rate Variations in France from 1800 to Present »), L.-J. Loutchitch, Alcan, Paris, 1930
[24] « Indexes of US Stock Prices from 1802 to 1987 », G.Schwert, Journal of Business, vol.63 n°3, 1990.
[25] « Irrational Exuberance », Second Edition, R.Shiller, Princeton University Press, 2005 (also treats of long term home prices).
* Macroeconomic and Demographic Aggregates in the Long Term
[26] « L’économie française au XIXème siècle, analyse macroéconomique » (« The French Economy in the 19th Century, Macroeconomic Analysis »), M. Lévy-Leboyer et F. Bourguignon, Économica, 1985.
[27] « Essai sur les mouvements des revenus et l’activité économique en France de 1789 à 1820 » (« Essay on the Movements of Incomes and Economic Activity in France from 1789 to 1820 »), A.
Chabert, Librairie de Médicis, 1949.
[28] « Le produit intérieur brut de la France de 1789 à 1982 » (« French Gross Domestic Product from 1789 to 1982 »), J.-C. Toutain, Cahiers de l’ISMEA n°15, 1987.
[29] Séries longues macroéconomiques (« Long Term Macroeconomic Series »), P.Villa, CEPII.
[30] « La demande potentielle de logements à l’horizon 2030 : une estimation par la croissance attendue du nombre des ménages » (« Housing Potential Demand at horizon 2030, an estimate by the
expected growth in the number of households»), Alain Jacquot, SOeS, août 2012.
Updates of this document, as well as additional documents, may be downloaded at http://www.cgedd.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/house-prices-in-france-property-a1117.html.
The interpretation of several of these charts is delicate. Therefore it is strongly recommended to have a look at the references mentioned below the charts.
Values may be provisional for the most recent months or quarters.
The charts may be copied, provided they are in full, without any addition or omission and that the source mentioned below each of them is reproduced in full, followed by the link
http://www.cgedd.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/house-prices-in-france-property-price-index-french-a1117.html.
J.Friggit - CGEDD/S2. The analyses and points of view are the author’s, and, in particular, not necessarily CGEDD’s.