Development in Rural China (SOSC 163) Course Objective: To interpret the development experience of rural China in the last 100 hundred years from an economics perspective Why the last 100 years? Need to understand what went on (and wrong?) between 1949 and 1978 in order to understand what, how and why of China’s recent rural economic reforms (circa. 1979) Difficult to make sense of the period ruled by the Chinese Communist Party (the CCP) without knowing what happened before it Choice of late 19th-century predicated upon China’s increasing contact with the West or integration into the world economy (after Opium War) What were the immediate effects of “commercialization” on economic development? Why did specialization and trade and the development of markets failed to transform China into a super industrial power just like Adam Smith predicted? Why, after the Communists came into power were markets and private property rights eradicated? Finally, why after three decades of Communist rule based upon a planned economic system and communal property rights did the same ruling party change the approach to economic development? To what extent does the current Chinese (village) economy approximate itself half a century ago? What is yet to be changed? 2 The Analytical Framework To interpret recent development experience from an economic perspective that emphasizes the role and importance of institutions in the development process Two dimensions of institutions: 1) rules and mechanisms by which scarce resources are allocated (allocative efficiency) and; 2) criteria by which individual rights to income are determined Examples of (1) are markets vs. plan Examples of (2) are private vs. communal property rights; former recognizes and protects monetary returns to one’s labor and investments, as opposed to more or less equal sharing of returns to group effort “Mapping” the two Before 1949 China’s economy operated according to markets and based upon private property rights Between 1949 and 1978 ……plans and communal rights After 1979 moving away from plans…….increasingly private….reverting back to markets and private property Greater emphasis placed upon 1949-1978, why? Period when China deviated from conventional wisdom of development strategy of concomitantly urbanizing and industrializing the economy Paid huge economic and social costs…..e.g., Great Leap forward in 1958 3 Why the CCP pursued a different development strategy? Scarcity of resource endowments: China was poorly endowed in land resources relative to her population China a predominantly rural society and economy when the PRC was founded Close to 90% of population lived in villages Had a populace of relatively low levels of literacy Close to 70% of national income accounted for by agriculture Over half of exports were agricultural products Had insufficient “hard currencies” with which to import latest technology It was technologically backward: industry confined to simple processing and distribution of primary commodities 4 The Development Question: How did China go about embarking on the path of industrialization under the above constraints? Role of Agriculture in Economic Development to feed and clothe the people to provide “surplus” to industry in the forms of cheaply priced food and raw materials What institutions would help keep prices low? Problems dealing with millions of (profits-oriented) farm households Plans and collectives Concerned with how to effectively mobilize resources from one sector to another according to development priority ….. But economic performance requires also a second dimension of efficiency, namely, organizational efficiency, which is a function of work incentives (referring to both intensity and quality of effort) Question then becomes what determines work incentives? material rewards (w = marginal product of labor) non-material incentives (ideology – the notion that one should serve not merely one’s economic interests but also those of the fellow countrymen) Chinese leaders had relied upon: the massive MOBILIZATION of the country’s vast labor force (China’s “comparative advantage”) the reliance on ideology for effort mobilization Nothing replaces material incentives: stagnant peasant income and farm output growth for two decades 5 Economic Reform saw gradual removal of prior restrictions on: use and income rights free allocation of labor time especially in non-agriculture rise of rural industries and migration (partial urbanization) but they remained incomplete ….. This course attempts to explain WHY and HOW certain economic policies and institutions were implemented and their CONSEQUENCES. 6 So, why study development of rural China? One of two most populous countries Has to feed 1/4 (25%) of world’s population on 7% arable land compared to the U.S., only 70% of China’s arable land can be sown to crops but has to feed 3-4 times as many a population Western and northwestern part not suitable for farming Still a substantial % of population living in rural areas resources compared poorly even with India (in the 1950s) and Soviet union (in the late 1920s) Development requires transformation of employment and factors of production (i.e. industrialization) and urbanization 7 Our Approach Economic performance depends on the strengths of an incentive system – the PROPERTY RIGHTS approach PROPOSITION: work incentives are closely related to the extent to which one’s effort is remunerated: the stronger such a relationship the stronger the incentives and the better the economic performance There are, however, a number of factors that may bear upon incentives Resource scarcity and ideology contributed to disproportionate use and emphasis on non-material incentives That just didn’t work! That is what Reform is all about! 8 *The Development of China's Rural Institutions in Chronological Order 1. 1949-1952 -- Recovery from war & civil disturbances: Land Reform to redistribute scarce land and other farm resources from rich to poor 2. formation of mutual aid teams to rationalize resource allocation due to scarcity: a) temporary; b) permanent (up to 1954) 3. the establishment of elementary agricultural coops and the restriction of farmers' control-cum-use right and income right (1954-55) 4. transition to advanced agricultural coops and the complete abolition of private property rights (1956-57) 5. collective farming under the three-tier structure of the people's commune (renmin gongshe) 1958-1978 6. The restoration of farm household as primary unit of agricultural production 9