TABLE OF CONTENTS Scientific/Technical/Management Section (15 pages) Research Objectives & Expected Significance of Proposed Research ........................................ Technical Approach & Methodology .......................................................................................... Perceived Impact on the State of Knowledge .............................................................................. Relevance to the OPR Program ................................................................................................... General Plan of Work .................................................................................................................. Data-Sharing Plan ........................................................................................................................ References ......................................................................................................................................... Biographical Sketch (2 pages) ......................................................................................................... Current & Pending Research Support .......................................................................................... Letters of Commitment ................................................................................................................... Budget Justification Budget Narrative ................................................................................................................................ Facilities & Equipment ...................................................................................................................... Budget Justification: Details ............................................................................................................. SCIENCE/TECHNICAL/MANAGEMENT SECTION Introduction: Meteorology on Titan The dramatic images of stream networks, shorelines, and rounded pebbles on Titan taken from the Huygens probe convincingly show that Titan, like the Earth, has a surface carved by flowing fluids. Cassini imaging and radar has shown abundant lakes near the north pole, dry dunes near the equator, and a smaller number of lakes near the south pole. The central phenomenon connecting and likely explaining these disparate observations is the seasonal meteorological cycle on Titan (Fig. 1). While for many years it was assumed that Titan had no meteorological cycle at all, observations of variable cloud systems – first from ground-based observations and later from Cassini – have demonstrated that convection, condensation, and – presumably – precipitation are indeed sporadically prevalent across Titan. Understanding this meteorological cycle potentially holds the key to understanding much of the diversity of features on the surface of Titan. The first clouds imaged were found clustered near the south pole of Titan during southern summer solistice (Brown et al. 2002), a phenomenon which had not been predicted but which we quickly attributed to the heating of the surface during the years-long perpetual daylight of the polar summer and the subsequent initiation of convective instabilities. This hypothesis immediately drives home the realization that Titan’s meteorological cycle is going to be strongly seasonally dependent, and that understanding of this cycle will require observations over a large fraction of Titan’s 30 year season. Our ground-based adaptive optics program has been continually monitoring the clouds on Titan since November 2001. These observations provide frequent coverage of Titan, but only modest spatial resolution and sensitivity. Cassini, in contrast, provides the capability of detecting much smaller meteorological events, but only for relatively brief moments during flybys. Combining the Cassini and the ground-based data, however, will lead to a much more complete understanding of Titan’s changing meteorology. clouds convection circulation ? ? Volcanoes? Geysers? Rain? rivers? lakes? subsurface methane? ? ? ? Figure 1: Potential hydrological cycles on Titan. To date most of what we know comes from Keck observations of clouds and subsequent inferences about convection. Most of the other pieces of the hydrological puzzle are almost completely unknown. The proposed observations are capable of exploring the connections amongst all of the shaded parts of the cycle diagram. Relevance to NASA goals Cassini’s four year nominal tour plus two year extended mission begins to approach the types of long term coverage required for this analysis, covering the equivalent Earth time of mid-January until the beginning of April. The tropical regions of Titan, in contrast, appear dried out and covered in dunes. The one ingredient which has yet to be observed to complete this picture of an active hydrological cycle on Titan is any actual liquid methane to take part in the cycle. One of the central goals of understanding the hydrological cycle on Titan is to determine when and where surface liquids exist and to connect the different systems and processes involved in transporting the liquids above, below, and on the ground (Figure 1). The best evidence that we currently have to suggest the presence and location of liquids on Titan is the observations of long-lived – presumably methane – cloud systems near the south pole. These southern clouds and any methane rain associated with them, however, are far removed from the locations of most of the geological evidence for flowing surface liquids. From the current observations of clouds, it appears likely that Titan rain, if it currently occurs, is highly seasonably variable. The presence of clouds at the south pole at the end of southern polar summer is consistent with the expected location of convective and circulatory uplift. This location of uplift and of expected clouds moves from the south pole to the north and back again over the 30 year long season on Titan. Rain and possibly also surface liquid methane could follow the same seasonal route. In addition to seasonal variability, however, Titan clouds are wildly temporally variable, with long periods of little to no cloudiness followed by shorter periods of intensive cloud activity. It appears possible that the hydrological cycle is dominated by sporadic seasonally variable cloud cover and rainfall. Understanding the seasonal and secular variability of cloud activity on Titan and connecting this activity to surface fluids is the primary objective of the research described in this proposal. Titan’s clouds: Earth vs. Cassini views The Earth-based view At the beginning of this decade, little was known about clouds on Titan. Owing to the thick haze on Titan and the difficulty of resolving small features on an object only an arcsecond across, they had only been directly observed a small number of times with the then-new adaptive optics systems on the largest telescopes in the world (Brown et al. 2002, Roe et al. 2002). Nothing was known about their temporal and spatial distribution and variability. Bouchez and Brown (2005) first showed from 16 nights of observation that clouds are currently a persistent presence at the south pole of Titan, consistent with the hypothesis of Brown et al. (2002) that clouds are forming near the latitude of maximum daily insolation. The clouds observed by Bouchez and Brown covered approximately 1% of the disk of Titan. Early observations by Griffith et al. (1995), however, suggested that clouds occasionally cover at least 10% of the disk. A major focus of the PIs group was to develop methods for continuous monitoring of Titan in order to understand when and where (and if) such large cloud outbursts occur. Photometric monitoring of Titan using a small telescope and special filters designed to see photometric changes due to clouds (Fig. 2) found, early on, that the majority of the time the cloud cover on Titan was less than or equal to the ~1% observed by Bouchez and Brown (2005). Every several months, however, a cloud outburst covering a few percent of the disk was observed, and once in the two year period a cloud dwarfing all of the others was observed. If the amount of rainfall is proportional to the cloud intensity (a reasonable but by no means certain assumption) that single large cloud accounted for the vast majority of the rainfall of the past several years (Schaller et al. 2006a). The small telescope program was active during the first 6 Cassini encounters with Titan, so we have an excellent data set with which to put the Cassini data into context. One interesting phenomenon to note is that the large south polar clouds observed by Cassini in Ta and Tb were just the tail end of a much more massive outburst that dwarfed the small events Cassini saw. In concert with the 14-inch telescope observations, we have been obtaining snapshot observations of Titan with the adaptive optics systems at the Keck and Gemini Observatories. The combination of the daily monitoring with a 14-inch telescope and ready access to highresolution imaging at large telescopes has proved especially powerful. For example, when Schaller noticed the largest photometric deviation ever seen by the 14-inch telescope we immediately obtained images from Keck Observatory and confirmed the presence of a cloud covering a significant fraction of the south polar region (Schaller et al. 2006a) (Figure 3). Figure 2: Two year's worth of photometric monitoring of Titan from the New Mexico Skies telescope. The improvements in the measurement technique are visible in the difference between the first and second year’s observations. The large deviations from Titan’s regular lightcurve, indicated with red arrows, correspond to large outburst of clouds on Titan, as verified both by imaging from Keck and Gemini observatory and from Cassini flybys. The 14inch telescope is capable of detecting several percent level cloud outbursts. The largest cloud outburst covered a significant fraction of the south polar region (see below). Figure 3: A comparison between typical Titan cloud activity and the rare large cloud outburst of October 2004. Also visible are the 40 degree south clouds discovered by Roe et al. (2005a). The long term monitoring that has been possible with the snapshot observations has lead to several critical insights into the Titan cloud systems. Roe et al. (2005a) detected the first clouds seen at a location other than the south polar regions. These clouds were concentrated in a band near 40 degrees southern latitude and first appeared about the time we had been expecting to see seasonal changes in the cloud systems. Continued long term monitoring, however, showed that these clouds were preferentially forming over a single longitude on the surface of Titan, indicative of some sort control by surface geography, rather than a seasonal effect (Roe et al. 2005b). One intriguing possibility is that methane is being directly injected into the atmosphere at this longitude in some sort of cryovolcanic outburst. In perhaps the strongest clue to date for understanding the seasonality of the hydrological cycle, Schaller et al. (2006b) have found that south polar cloud system, which was visible in almost every single image from 2001 until late 2004 suddenly disappeared for a period of at least 4 months. The disappearance coincided with the time period in which we first expected signatures of seasonal change, but it also coincided with the end of the major cloud outburst in October 2004. The southern clouds have recently resumed with a hint of slight northward movement (Figure 4; [Emily’s time vs. lat figure]). More recently, we have begun an even more sensitive ground-based monitoring program. For two years now (and expected to continue), we have obtained a single full-disk spectrum of Titan on every single night that the SpeX instrument is installed at the IRTF. This full disk spectrum allows us to search for daily cloud variation down to the fraction of a percent level. We find that for most of the past two years these has been essentially zero cloud activity on Titan (Fig. 5; Schaller et al., submitted). Recently a major resurgence in activity has occurred much closer to the equator (Fig. 6). Observations of this event were triggered when we noticed a major cloud outburst in IRTF spectra, and we began an imagining campaign the next night. Once again, by the next Cassini encounter, this impressive event, which lasted for weeks. was gone. The Cassini view While Cassini has missed most of the major meteorological activity seen from the ground, it has shown that small-scale activity is almost always present and almost always missed from the ground. Few actual publications have come from the Cassini teams on Titan clouds (the important exceptions being Griffith et al. 2005 and Griffith et al. 2007), but following press releases, conference presentations, and perusing the PDS data sets, the following general story can be uncovered. With few exceptions, Titan almost always has clouds, and other than the major (in reality relatively minor) southern storms seen during Ta and Tb, no significant seasonal change has been observed. Contrary to our ground-based claim in Roe et al. (2005b) that mid-latitude clouds are geographically concentrated, Cassini finds that small mid-latitude clouds appear randomly and thus appear likely to be related to circulation rather than geology (Griffith et al. 2005), but, as with the south polar clouds, Cassini missed the most dramatic of the mid-latitude clouds, and it was these there were most strongly clustered. Cassini’s ability to observe the northern latitudes not visible from the ground also led to a major discovery of a massive north polar cloud assumed to be from ethane downwelling (Griffith et al. 2007). (Interestingly, though, many of the assumptions about the ubiquity and stability of this cloud system appear to be unsupported by observations from the earth now that that region is observable). In short, with few exceptions, the view of Titan’s meteorological behavior that one gets from persistent would low resolution ground based data and from sporadic but high resolution Cassini data is almost completely different. The opposite conclusions arrived at by Roe et al. and Griffith et al. dramatically showcase the strengths and weakness of both the ground-based and the Cassini-based observations. The limited temporal coverage of the Cassini observations caused them to miss the essential fact that these sporadic clouds occur predominantly over one fixed region on Titan. The limited spatial resolution of our ground-based observations caused us to miss the essential fact that the detailed structures of the clouds are not what would be expected from simple geological sources. Reconciling these differences and created a combined earth- and Cassini-based view over the time period of all of the released data is the major goal of this proposal. Proposed research: A systematic analysis of the Cassini view of clouds and a comparison to the ground-based data With our intensive ground-based observations of Titan’s clouds during the entire mission, we are in an excellent position to reconcile the earth and Cassini views of Titan and make significant progress understanding the seasonal meteorological cycle on Titan.. The research proposed here will help to answer several fundamental questions, including: Do Titan’s clouds vary in latitude with season? Will we eventually see clouds as far north as the Huygens landing site and at other locations of apparently fluvial geological features? How does the storm frequency change with season and latitude: are the near-equator latitudes subject to infrequent global-scale clouds like the pole is? Is cloud location controlled by Titan’s general circulation, surface heating, methane injection, or some other process? Are there geological consequences to the observed style of cloud activity? Is there precipitation associated with clouds? The investigations proposed here include a complete reanalysis of all of the released VIMS data and ISS data as well as a rigorous comparison to our extensive set of photometric, spectroscopic, and imagining data from the ground. VIMS analysis ISS analysis Combined analysis Collaborative investigations: the relationship of clouds to circulation and geology The main strength of the PI’s research group is in developing and implementing innovative observational techniques on astronomical telescopes, so much of our focus is determining which Titan observations are needed and how to best obtain them. Once these observations are obtained, however, their interpretation is greatly aided by important collaborations with other groups. Titan general circulation: As part of her Ph.D. thesis, graduate student Emily Schaller will be using the observations of cloud activity on Titan to try to understand the general circulation of Titan and its relationship to the seasonal hydrological cycle. She is collaborating with Tapio Schneider, an expert on the theory and modeling of atmospheric circulation to try to construct idealized models of the circulation of Titan. While several groups have developed increasingly complex general circulation models (GCMs) of Titan including detailed radiative transfer, haze formation and transport, and cloud formation, insight into some of the simpler questions about circulation on a slowly rotating lightly heated planet is better obtained from simpler models. Walker and Schneider (2005) have been using idealized GCMs in an attempt to isolate and understand physical processes involved in general Hadley circulations. They find that their model captures the large-scale behavior of the earth and allows them to generalize to other systems. Schaller will take the idealized GCM and adapt it to Titan conditions in an attempt to understand the seasonal variation of the Hadley circulations on Titan. To first order these circulations are thought to be understood: the expected pole-to-pole circulation during the summer season should give way to equator-to-pole circulation in the spring. But no general exploration of how and when this major atmospheric circulation transition takes place has ever been carried out. Does the rising branch of the Hadley cell suddenly jump from the equator to the pole? Is there a period of disorganized circulation before it reorganizes at equator or at the pole? Is there any connection between the observed cloud locations and the circulation patterns? If Schaller can connect the observations of Titan clouds to the currently changing circulation patterns she will be well on the path to understanding this critical part of the hydrological cycle and being able to predict its full seasonal range. Titan geology: While understanding the seasonal variation of cloud and possible rain activity on Titan is a critical step to understanding the hydrological cycle, without a connection to the surface of Titan no true understanding of the hydrological cycle is possible. We are exploring surface connections through ground-based and Cassini-based observations. In West et al. (2005) we showed that the lack of specular reflections in our Keck imaging implied that no large bodies of surface liquids were present near the current sub-solar point. If the cloud systems move north, possibly bringing precipitation closer to the equator, we have hope that surface liquids may yet be present and that specular reflections might be observable. It is possible that surface liquids – if they ever exist – exist for only short periods of time before seeping into the subsurface. As the clouds migrate to the expected position of specular reflections we may be rewarded with a sudden and dramatic indication of the amount and frequency of rainfall on Titan. The closely spaced ground-based observations may be critical if large cloud outbursts are infrequent and any subsequent surface liquid is short-lived. While surface liquids and specular reflections seem a long-shot at this point, more promising is the correlation between cloud locations and the surface features seen in Cassini radar images. We have recently begun a collaboration with Steve Wall, the Deputy Leader of the Cassini radar instrument to help interpret radar images in terms of the seasonal hydrological cycle. The results from the September flyby are particularly dramatic; the “shoreline” feature that has been much discussed in press releases is situated at approximately 70 degrees south latitude: precisely at the boundary of the regions where clouds have most recently been seen. Is this feature somehow related to intensive south polar precipitation? Is there currently surface liquid at the south pole, or are we seeing the effect of precipitation changing the surface roughness or other characteristics? The unusual polar radar features could be indicative that the rare large storms on Titan are capable of dramatically affecting local landforms. While no other polar radar swaths will be obtained during the nominal Cassini mission, if the cloud systems move north and possibly bring massive precipitative events with them we will potentially have the opportunity to see radar returns from other freshly inundated regions. Careful and continuous examination of the radar images combined with a knowledge of the most recent cloud activity on Titan has great potential for making concrete connections between the clouds we see in the atmosphere and the features we see on the ground. Time line of anticipated work Over the three year period of the proposal, the following major tasks are anticipated: Carry out intensive adaptive optics observations of Titan’s cloud systems from the Keck and Gemini Observatory. Combined with the data from the past four years we will have a 7 year record of imaging observations showing the latitudinal evolution (if it occurs) of Titan’s clouds from the south polar system in place during southern summer to whatever style is prevalent by autumn. Fully commission the 24-inch telescope for robotic operation and carry out a three year campaign of synoptic monitoring of Titan’s clouds. By the end of this time period we will have a 6 year time line extending from Titan southern summer to Titan autumn of the sizes and frequencies of cloud systems. Complete the IRTF pilot program and (if it is as successful as we anticipate) begin longterm daily spectral monitoring of Titan to detect and characterize the small daily clouds and search for trends and differences in cloud heights with cloud location, size, and style. Study Titan’s Hadley circulation using the idealized GCM and relate the observed locations of clouds on Titan to the circulation. Determine if any geological features imaged by Cassini radar are related to current or seasonally changing precipitation. Remain open to serendipitous discoveries such as the existence of mid-latitude clouds and their geographic correlation. The bulk of this work will form the basis of the Ph.D. thesis of Emily Schaller, who will be prepared to graduate at the end of this proposal period with an excellent training in astronomical instrumentation, observations, data analysis, and data interpretation along with experience in the modeling of global circulations. Personnel and Collaborators M.E. Brown, PI: The PI will have final responsibility for all aspects of the program, including bringing the robotic telescope on line, overseeing development of observation and reduction pipelines, carrying out AO observations, and providing a guiding scientific framework to the project. Brown is an experienced AO observer on large telescopes and performed his Ph.D. thesis on long term monitoring with a small telescope of daily variations in the Jovian system. He will lead the group’s effort at understanding the Cassini radar observations. Graduate student: The bulk of the work described here will comprise the Ph.D. thesis of Schaller. Schaller is the PI for the IRTF observations and will carry out the observations and develop data reduction pipelines for the monitoring program. She will participate in the AO observations and data reduction at Keck and Palomar Observatory. In collaboration with T. Schneider, she will carry out the circulation modeling to help understand the seasonal evolution of Titan’s circulation and relate it to her observations.. H. Roe, postdoctoral fellow: Roe is a NSF postdoctoral fellow in the PI’s research group. Roe is an experienced Titan and adaptive optics observer who independently discovered south polar clouds on Titan and made the discoveries of the mid-latitude clouds on Titan. Roe is the PI of the Gemini observing program. T. Schneider, collaborator: Schneider is an assistant professor of environmental science at Caltech and is an expert in global circulation models (GCMs) of planetary atmospheres. Schneider will provide the lead on the collaboration involving idealized GCM modeling of Titan atmospheric circulation. S. Wall, collaborator: Wall is the Deputy Team Leader for the radar instrument on the Cassini spacecraft. Wall will collaborate with Brown on understanding the relationship between the geological features observed by Cassini radar and the temporal and spatial distribution of Titan’s clouds. 1. OBJECTIVES & EXPECTED SIGNIFICANCE (relate to objectives given in announcement) 2. TECHNICAL APPROACH & METHODOLOGY (include description of any special facilities and/or capabilities of the Proposer(s) to be used for carrying out the work) 3. PERCEIVED IMPACT (how is the proposed work expected to impact the state of knowledge in the field?) 4. RELEVANCE (how is proposed work relevant to past, present, and/or future NASA programs and interests, or to the specific objectives given in the NRA) 5. GENERAL PLAN OF WORK Anticipated Key Milestones for Accomplishments Management Structure for Proposal Personnel Proposed Substantial Collaborations and/or Use of Consultant(s) for completion of the investigation Description of the expected contribution from PI and Postdoc 6. DATA-SHARING PLAN Description of how data will be shared. Provide evidence of past data-sharing practices. REFERENCES & CITATIONS BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH MICHAEL E. BROWN, PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR [insert CV] PUBLICATIONS RELEVANT TO THIS PROPOSAL CURRENT & PENDING RESEARCH SUPPORT MICHAEL E. BROWN, PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR Current Support 1. The Hydrological Cycle on Titan PI: Michael E. Brown Agency: NSF Technical Officer: Vernon Pankonin Phone: (703) 292-4902 / Email: vpankoni@nsf.gov Period: 7/1/06 – 6/30/09 Total Funding: $229,940 Work Year: 0.15 person-months 2. Collisions in the Kuiper Belt PI: Michael E. Brown Agency: Space Telescope Science Institute Technical Officer: Paula Sessa Phone: (410) 338-4816 / Email: sessa@stsci.edu Period: 9/1/07 – 8/31/09 Total Funding: $81,116 Work Year: 0.19 person-months LETTERS OF COMMITMENT BUDGET JUSTIFICATION Budget Narrative Salary Salary support is requested for PI Michael Brown (0.12 person-months) and a graduate student (TBD – 12.0 person-months) for the three years of proposed research. Professor Brown will coordinate all aspects of the proposed research and supervise/train the graduate student, as referenced in the Science/Technical/Management section. The graduate student will . Salary for graduate students is set annually by Caltech’s Division of Geological and Planetary Science. The 2009 graduate stipend is $25,500, effective 10/1/08 – 9/30/09. Salaries for Years 2 and 3 reflect a 4% cost of living increase. Fringe Benefits The fringe benefit rate of 25% is assessed on salaries, excluding graduate, effective 10/1/07. Supplies We request funds for general office expenses, campus computing service, and publication during the three years of proposed research. General office expenses for this research include costs based on past research expenses for copying, faxing, graphics printing, and phone usage. We estimate approximately 5 hours of usage per year of Caltech campus computing service at $65 per hour over the three-year research period. We determined the publication costs in a scientific journal by using the American Geophysical Union’s Journal of Geophysical Research as a guide. The print rate is $90 per page. Costs for Years 2 and 3 reflect a 4% inflationary increase. Travel We request funds for 1 person to attend the Division of Planetary Science Annual Meeting and the annual American Geophysical Union Joint Assembly to present research results over the three-year research period. Cost estimates are based on the following: a. Airfare – Airfare was calculated by averaging the cost charged by three major airlines serving each DPS and AGU meeting location and adding a $45 travel agency booking fee. b. Lodging and Per Diem – Lodging and per diem costs were calculated by researching the GSA website rates for each meeting location. Where locations were unknown, assumptions were based on DPS past meeting location trends and AGU costs were based on projections for the 2008 meeting. c. Registration – Registration was based on 2007 DPS and 2008 AGU conference registration fees. d. Miscellaneous Ground Transportation – Costs were based on online estimates for taxi and shuttle service in each known meeting location. 1 6-day Trip to Spring AGU Assume East Coast City Airfare Lodging Meals & Incidentals Registration Miscellaneous Transport Total 1 6-day Trip to Fall DPS Year 1 553 556 324 406 104 Year 2 575 579 337 422 108 Year 3 598 602 350 439 112 Year 1 San Juan PR 575 1014 512 333 104 1943 2021 2101 2538 Year 2 Assume Midwest City 274 525 350 346 108 Year 3 Nice, France 1450 1693 1269 360 112 1603 4884 GRA Benefits Institute policy is to provide each graduate student employee who meets a required average work week with full tuition and fees. A portion of this cost is requested as a benefit (exempt from indirect costs) equivalent to 63.5% of the graduate research assistant salary, effective 10/1/07. Indirect Cost Rate The Indirect Cost Rate of 60.5% is assessed on direct costs, excluding the GRA Benefit. Indirect Cost Rate Agreement: Office of Naval Research, effective 10/1/07. Summary of Personnel and Work Effort This proposed investigation will be carried out by the PI and his research group. The personnel annual time commitments are summarized in the table below. Investigator Dr. Michael Brown GRA TBD Role PI Graduate Student Time Commitment 0.12 person-months 12.0 person-months Facilities and Equipment [insert description of existing facilities available for the proposed investigation] Budget Justification: Details Details are provided according to the instructions given in the NASA Guidebook for Proposers. PROPOSED BUDGET [insert title] 4/1/09 - 3/31/12 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Total SALARIES PI: Michael E. Brown GRA: TBD (100%) 1,810 1,882 1,958 25,500 26,520 27,581 5,650 79,601 SALARIES 27,310 28,402 29,538 85,251 STAFF BENEFITS 25% of Salaries, excluding GRA TOTAL SALARIES 453 471 489 1,413 27,763 28,873 30,028 86,663 SUPPLIES & EXPENSE Communications, miscellaneous office supplies 250 261 271 783 PUBLICATION Page charges and reprints 500 521 542 1,564 COMPUTING $65 per hour 325 339 353 1,017 4,481 3,624 6,986 15,090 OTHER: GRA Benefit 63.5% of GRA Salaries 16,193 16,840 17,514 50,547 TOTAL DIRECT COSTS 49,512 50,458 55,694 155,664 INDIRECT COSTS 60.5% of Total Direct Costs, excluding Other 20,158 20,339 23,099 TOTAL REQUEST 69,670 70,797 78,793 219,261 TRAVEL Domestic: 1 trip to DPS & 1 trip to AGU per year See budget narrative for cost explanations. 63,596