Year 12 HSC Economics 2014 Year 12 Economics HSC tips 2014 Short answers 2009 2010 Inflation TOT Trade 2011 Trade Agreements case study Fiscal Policy Globalisation/case CAD study Environment Fiscal Policy Wage Determination Protection Exchange Rates Environment Subsidies 2012 Protection and Free Trade 2013 Environmental issues Inflation Multiplier/Eco growth Income CAD/Foreign Inequality Debt Unemployment Micro reform Exchange rate Past extended responses (stimulus based) 2013 Explain how movements in the Australian dollar can affect the performance of the Australian economy. Explain the effects of Australia’s macroeconomic policy mix on economic growth and inflation in the domestic economy 2012 Analyse the impact of changes in the global economy on Australia’s Balance of Payments. Analyse the impact of changes in the global economy on the structure of industry in the Australian economy. 2011 How does fiscal policy affect economic activity and income distribution in the Australian economy? How does monetary policy affect inflation and unemployment in the Australian economy? 2010 Discuss the economic concerns that the Australian Government takes into account when formulating policies to manage the environment. Discuss the consequences for Australia of an unequal distribution of income and wealth, and the policies that can be used to address this issue. 2009 Discuss the impact of microeconomic policies on Australia’s economic performance. With reference to Australia and at least ONE other economy, discuss the impact of globalisation on development and the distribution of global wealth. 2008 Evaluate the effectiveness of fiscal policy in achieving Australia’s economic objectives. Evaluate the effectiveness of monetary policy in achieving Australia’s economic objectives 2007 Discuss the impact of sustained fiscal surpluses on resource use and economic activity in the Australian economy. Explain how Australia’s labour market policies have affected work practices and employment. Past extended responses 2013 Analyse the effects of domestic AND global free trade and protection policies on the Australian economy. Analyse the causes of unemployment and its effects on the Australian economy. 2012 For an economy other than Australia, discuss the effects of globalisation on economic growth and the quality of life. Discuss the effectiveness of economic policies in achieving the Australian government’s economic objectives. 2011 Discuss the effects of microeconomic reform on product and factor markets in the Australian Economy. Discuss the impact of changes in the domestic and global economy on Australia’s exchange rate. 2010 Analyse the causes and effects of fluctuations in Australia’s external stability. Analyse the effects of protectionist trade policies on the Australian economy. 2009 Analyse the federal government’s macroeconomic policy mix to address inflation and unemployment in the Australian economy. Analyse the impact of changes in the global economy on Australia’s economic growth and external stability. 2008 Discuss the influence of international organisations and contemporary trading blocs and agreements in promoting globalisation. Discuss the effects of an appreciation of the Australian dollar on Australia’s internal and external stability. 2007 Discuss the economic implications for the Australian economy of Australia’s continuingcurrent account deficits. For an economy other than Australia, explain how government development strategies have responded to the process of globalisation. Year 12 Economics- Topic Summary Topic 1- The Global Economy The focus of this study is the operation of the global economy and the impact of the globalisation process on individual economies. International economic integration Global economy/globalisation/GWP/international business cycle/ changing global community Free Trade v Protection Trading Blocs – role of EU and USA International Organisations - WTO, World Bank, IMF Globalisation and economic development differences between economic growth and economic development distribution of income and wealth income and quality of life indicators developing economies, emerging economies, advanced economies reasons for differences between nations effects of globalisation trade, investment and transnational corporations environmental sustainability the international business cycle. Globalisation Introduction What is globalisation? Globalisation is the integration of individual economies to create a global market. Globalisation is occurring via trade, financial flows, investment, labour movements and the use of technology. The aim of globalisation is to raise living standards globally; however, there are a number of barriers that are preventing the benefits of globalisation spreading to all countries. Body Outline each of the factors causing globalisation Trade – growth in global trade is double the growth of GDP. Trade creates employment because it is a source of aggregate demand. Trade continues to be restricted by protection and trading blocs eg EU and NAFTA. These trading blocs promote internal trade but discriminate against non-members. This is having a significant on global inequality. The rich countries are getting richer and the poor countries are getting poorer because they find it so hard to gain access to the EU and NAFTA. Emerging economies (China and India are having a significant impact on global trade) Finance- Fastest growing indicator of globalisation- money transfers to buy foreign currency for speculation and saving. Speculation is now the major factor determining exchange rates. Financial flows have caused lots of financial instability in currency markets eg. GFC Investment – FDI has grown dramatically (7X larger than 10 years ago). TNCs now are the major driving force behind economic growth in developed and underdeveloped countries. This raises many issues about the exploitation of labour in less developed countries (Nike in Indonesia) Discuss positives and negatives Labour Movement – Labour movement tends to be at the top end and bottom end of skills. Highly skilled workers are attracted to the larger economies (US and Europe) and low skilled labour is attracted to developed countries (Indonesian maids in Singapore) Technology – has played a key role in trade, finance, investment and labour movements. The internet has provided information and communications globally thus increasing the pace of globalisation International Business Cycle- As economies are more integrated international factors have a greater influence on domestic economies (draw the business cycle). A recession in the USA has an impact Japan and then the whole world. Australia’s exports are now more dependent of the Chinese business cycle and the demand for resources. Domestic interest rates are affected by overseas interest rates as countries try to attract foreign savings. Exchange rates are more volatile due to speculation. Many countries have experienced structural change as protection levels have fallen globally. Conclusion Protection, Free Trade and Trade Organisation Introduction What is protection? Protection is an artificial advantage given to domestic producers when competing with foreign imports. Free Trade is the removal of all protection so that market forces can operate freely. Generally the world has been moving towards less protection due to the WTO. However, protection still exists in a number of regions due to trading blocs. Body Outline briefly the different types of protection and their impact Tariffs, subsidies, quotas, local content rules, embargoes. Short term benefits to employment, long term problems as prices rise and resources are wasted. Protection encourages production by inefficient industries at the expense of efficient industries. Outline the advantages of free Trade Specialisation, economies of scale, efficient resource allocation, international competitiveness, innovation, higher living standards Role of the WTO Attempts to promote free trade and encourage countries to decrease protection- has had considerable success in reducing protection on industrial goods- has had very little success with reducing protection on agricultural goods. The Doha round concentrated on agricultural protection in an effort to improve living standards in the poor world- most developing economies depend on agricultural exports but find it difficult to gain access to EU and USA. The Doha Round failed. The WTO also attempts to settle trade disputes among member countries World Bank WB provides development loans to developing economies. WB’s aim of the next 10 years is to reduce by 50% the proportion of the world’s population living in absolute poverty. The World Bank also supports a program to reduce the debt levels of the world’s poorest countries. International Monetary Fund Supports globalisation and free market theory. The IMF assists countries that are experiencing problems with exchange rate instability. The IMF usually develops a strategy for poor countries based on structural adjustment, free markets and modernisation. Trading blocs and free trade agreements Trading blocs have restricted the progress of free trade. The EU and NAFTA discriminate against non-members. They encourage an increase in trade between member countries but a decrease in global trade because they are protecting their own inefficient industries. In general the poorest countries in the world experience the greatest problems in gaining access to highincome markets. In recent years there has been a movement towards free trade agreement. Australia has free trade agreements with New Zealand, Thailand, Singapore, Japan and the USA Conclusion Globalisation and Economic Development Introduction What is globalisation / economic development? Define globalisation. Outline trade, finance, investment, labour mobility and technology as reasons for/ features of globalisation/change in global economy. Explain that globalisation has had a positive impact on trade, finance, investment labour mobility and technology but there are also negative consequences. Body Explain what the global economy is like High income countries (USA, Japan, Australia etc) have approx 15% of the world’s population but earn approx 70% of the world’s total income. Low income countries (Vietnam, Cambodia, Uganda etc) have approx 45% of the world’s population but earn approx 5% of the world’s total income. Outline the characteristics of Advanced Economies (USA), Emerging Economies (China), Developing Economies (ranges from middle income to low income economies – Cambodia). Economic Development (Global Issues) Global trade barriers are restricting trade. Trading Blocs (EU and NAFTA) limit trade from developing countries. Investment from AEs mainly occurs in other AEs. There has been significant investment in emerging economies (China, Malaysia) but many African and South American countries are generally ignored by TNCs. Global aid and assistance to developing economies is very small- only 0.24% of GWP. Aid is often tied thus benefiting the donor country. Access to technology is restricted in most developing countries. Economic Development (Domestic Issues) Many developing countries lack access to capital funds for private investment- are often highly indebted to foreign banks. There is a shortage of skilled labour- most depend on agriculture for export income and lack the industrial base required to produce high value added exports. Population growth is usual high causing problems in major cities. Govt corruption is common. Impact of development and growth Economic growth and development has favoured AIEs and emerging economies (China, Malaysia)- those countries that have been able to benefit from trade and investment. Trade – favoured those countries in strong trading blocs and disadvantaged non members TNCs – investing in low-income economies to exploit cheap labour (advantages/disadvantages) Increased global inequality- inequality has increased between countries and within countriesthe rich are getting richer at a much faster rate- approx 32% of the world’s population lives in poverty but poverty has been decreasing in emerging economies Environment- All countries experience environmental problems because of economic growth. Developing countries generally experience the more obvious problems because they want to attract foreign investment and are willing to sacrifice the environment to achieve higher national income. Conclusion Year 12 Economics- Topic Summary Topic 2- Australia’s Place in the Global Economy The focus of this topic is an examination of Australia’s place in the global economy and the impact of changes in the global economy on Australia. Australia’s trade and financial flows Trends/CAD/Capital and Financial account BOP links Debt trap Net Foreign Liabilities and Foreign Debt International competitiveness Exchange Rates Flexible exchange rates/FOREX markets Demand and supply factors Appreciation and depreciation Effects on economy Role of the RBA Free Trade and Protection Recent trends in Australia Positives and negatives for individuals, firms and government Australia’s Place in the Global Economy Introduction How is Australia part of the global economy? Australia is part of the global economy through trade, finance, investment, labour and technology. Australia has experienced a period of great structural change as it has reduced protection, floated its exchange rate and encouraged foreign investment. As a result Australia has become a more dynamic and competitive economy capable of adjusting to changes in global markets. On the other hand it has also experienced structural U, a fluctuating CAD, exchange rate instability and a growing Foreign Debt. Body CAD (goods and services) Outline the components of the CAD = (X- M) Goods & Services + primary income + secondary income Explain how X-M has changed – increase in mining exports and relative fall in agriculture and manufacturing Change in direction of trade = more towards Asian markets and particularly China Fall in protection from average tariff of 36% (1970) to 1.9 % (2012) and eventually zero. As a result Australia is exporting more but also importing more causing a trade surplus X>M from time to time. The CAD has reduced in recent years due to the mining boom and trade surpluses. The future of the CAD is closely linked with exports to China. CAD (net income) CAD is financed by foreign capital inflow- FDI + Foreign savings. Foreign savings is attracted by high Australian interest rates. This has created a debt-trap cycle for the CAD (draw the cycle and explain) Positives of foreign investment (debt and equity)-increased funds for Australians to borrow + FDI creates extra employment and production. Negative consequences are profit and interest repayments and debt trap. Australia’s foreign debt has grown from 45% GDP in 1990 to 65% GDP 2014. Consequences of a high CAD Growth in foreign liabilities (debt + equity) and debt trap cycle. Exchange rate more volatile and depreciation is more likely. CAD becomes a constraint on economic growth- government can’t let the economy grow too quickly because imports will surge. Loss of international confidence Flexible exchange rate Australia has a floating exchange rate. This has allowed foreign capital to flow freely into Australia – increasing Australia’s net foreign liabilities. Australia’s exchange rate has declined in value since being floated, however in recent years it has appreciated to around $1 US. From time to time the Australian currency has collapsed due to speculators selling large quantities of AUD. In 2014 the AUD has stabilised due to foreign savers buying AUD due to our relatively attractive domestic interest rates. It is important to have a stable exchange rate so that international investors have confidence in the Australian economy. Protection Australia supports free trade and the WTO. It has reduced protection in order to restructure the economy (1.9% average). This has forced Australian firms to be more export oriented and more internationally competitive. It has caused structural unemployment as many low skilled workers have lost their jobs. Australia has experienced a period of sustained economic growth over the last 15 years as a result of structural change and globalization Conclusion Exchange Rates Introduction Definition- value of one country’s currency in terms of another country’s currency Australia’s exchange rate was floated in 1983 – it is now determined by the forces of demand and supply on FOREX markets (flexible exchange rate). The AUD can appreciate or depreciate – generally stable in 2014. Body Demand and supply factors The demand for AUD depends on overseas buyers wishing to buy AUD to purchase Australian exports, invest in Australia etc. The supply of AUD depends on people selling AUD to pay for imports, invest overseas, transfer income overseas etc….. Draw demand and supply curves Explain why the AUD appreciates and/or depreciates An increase in demand for AUD or a decrease in the supply of AUD will cause an appreciation of the AUD- draw diagrams to illustrate. A decrease in demand for AUD or an increase in the supply of AUD will cause a depreciation of the AUD- draw diagrams to illustrate. Impacts of an appreciation Negative: Export prices should increase and import prices decrease – will probably cause an increase in the CAD Decrease in foreign investment due to increased price of AUD Foreign income from overseas assets decrease Foreign assets lose value Overall- an appreciation has a negative impact on international competitiveness Positive: Lower inflation as purchasing power increases when imports are cheaper Reduced value of Australian foreign debt for those who have borrowed in a foreign currency + reduced servicing costs on primary income component of CAD Impacts of a depreciation (all the opposite) Positives Export prices should decrease and import prices increase – will probably cause an improvement in BOGs and a fall in CAD Increase in foreign investment due to decreased price of AUD Foreign income from overseas assets increase Foreign assets increase in value Overall- depreciation has a positive impact on international competitiveness Negatives: Higher inflation as purchasing power decreases when imports are more expensive Increased value of Australian foreign debt for those who have borrowed in a foreign currency + increased servicing costs on primary income component of CAD Role of RBA and current trends Direct and indirect intervention Recent trends in AUD- stable in 2014 as global economy recovers Conclusion Year 12 Economics- Topic Summary Topic 3 –Economic Issues The focus of this topic is the nature, causes and consequences of the economic issues and problems that can confront contemporary economies. Economic Growth Aggregate demand Injections and leakages Multiplier Sources and effects Business cycle Unemployment Trends and measurement Types Causes Natural rate (NAIRU) Economic and social costs Inflation Trends and measurement Types Causes Phillip’s curve trade off External Stability BOP and CAD Foreign debt Debt Trap Exchange rate Distribution of income and wealth Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient Sources of income and wealth Reasons for inequality Economic and social costs/Economic benefits Environmental Management ESD Private and social costs – diagram Free riders- public and private goods Issues – preservation, pollution, negative externalities, renewable v non –renewable resources, carbon tax Economic Objectives and Issues Introduction What are the objectives? Economic growth, full employment, low inflation (internal balance) External stability (CAD, Foreign Debt, exchange rate) Environmental quality Redistribution of income Body Expand on each objective by discussing the realistic targets for the govt Economic growth = 3% - 4 % Full employment = 4% (no cyclical unemployment – natural rate of unemployment) Inflation = 2% - 3% RBA target CAD = 5% GDP, Foreign Debt = 60% GDP, stable exchange rate Environment = Ecological sustainable development Redistribution of income = more even distribution (Lorenz curve/ Gini coefficient) Possible conflict between objectives Economic growth reduces cyclical unemployment but can cause demand inflation (Phillips curve) Economic growth can cause an increased demand for imports increasing the CAD. This in turn will require more foreign savings to flow into Australia (debt-trap). Economic growth requires extra resource use thus leading to the depletion of resources and the creation of negative externalities. Economic growth usually causes higher wages as unemployment falls. Skilled workers tend to get the largest wage rises causing greater income inequality Explain what has been happening in Australia and the role of macro and micro policies Australia has experienced sustainable low inflationary economic growth over the last 15 years. Economic growth around 3.9%, inflation in the 2% - 3% range and falling unemployment (from 11% to 4.9%)- successful internal balance. However, the GFC has caused a slowdown in the domestic Australian economy with GDP falling to 1% growth in 2008/2009 and unemployment rising to 5.8%. Inflation fell to 1.6%. External instability has been the major economic problem- CAD and foreign debt due to globalisation (debt-trap problem). However, in 2013 the CAD has fallen due to lower domestic demand for imports and continued demand by China and India for Australian resources- Australia had a trade surpluses in recent months. Environmental quality continues to deteriorate (salinity is a major problem – water and land) as the economy grows. However, the Labor Govt signed the Kyoto protocol and was committed to a carbon tax scheme to reduce CO2 emissions. However, the Liberal Govt does not have the same commitment to reducing CO2 emissions. Income inequality continues to increase due to a more deregulated labour market Monetary policy – low inflation (2% - 3%) as the target has been successful. Investment has been encouraged and the economy has grown. Fiscal Policy has been effective in preventing a domestic recession but govt debt levels have risen due to recent budget deficits. Micro reform has improved efficiency causing domestic growth and assisting with international competitiveness and lower inflation. Conclusion Distribution of Income & Wealth Introduction Definition of income and wealth…Australia has an uneven distribution of income and wealth. Pattern is similar to most western advanced economies with inequality increasing as market forces operate more freely in the global economy. The government deliberately attempts to redistribute income via progressive income tax and welfare payments (transfer payments). Body Explain how income inequality is measured Discuss the Lorenz Curve and Gini coefficient (draw a Lorenz Curve) and refer to recent statistics (poorest 40% earn 19% of income and richest 40% earn 63% of income after the government has redistributed income). Explain how the Gini coefficient is calculated and discuss the long term trend as Gini coefficient has increased from 0.29 in 1997 to 0.33 in 2013. Explain how the distribution of wealth is more unequal. Reasons for income inequality Discuss the sources of income and wealth and the role of age, gender, ethnicity, occupation and location in determining income. The most important factor is education and skills because they will play a major role in determining the occupation a person will have. Costs and benefits of income inequality Market based economies depend on the incentive effect. For most people high income is a significant incentive. Due to the opportunity of earning higher incomes people will seek education and training to improve skills, work harder and longer, be willing to relocate to isolated regions (mining) and take risks as entrepreneurs. On the other hand there are a number of economic costs associated with income inequality: reduced overall utility and consumption, conspicuous consumption and increased welfare costs. Many economists believe a more equal distribution of income increases economic growth because low income earners have a higher MPC than high income earners. There a number of social costs associated with income inequality including the emergence of social classes and poverty Government Policies The Australian Government deliberately attempts to redistribute income by taxing high incomes at high marginal tax rates (progressive income tax) and redistributing income to low income earners via social welfare payments (transfer payments). This policy significantly moves Australia’s Lorenz Curve to the left and decreases the Gini coefficient. Before the government intervenes the poorest 20% of the population earn only 0.8% of total income and the richest 20% earn 47% of total income. Compulsory superannuation has also been introduced to provide low income earners with a source of wealth and income for retirement. On the other hand, a number of other microeconomic reforms have tended to increase inequality and benefitted high income earners: Enterprise bargaining has benefitted skilled workers and as a result wages for skilled workers have increased at twice the rate of low skilled workers. In order to assist low income earners the government has established an annual safety net wage increase for workers not covered by enterprise agreements. Reducing protection has had a major impact on many low skilled low income earners. Structural unemployment has played a role in increasing long-term unemployment in rural Australia. The introduction of the GST also had a significant impact on the purchasing power of low income earners. Conclusion Environmental Management Introduction Explain the trade-off between economic growth and environmental quality. As economic growth increases more scarce resources are used and more negative externalities are created. This means governments are attempting to achieve ESD so that the environment is managed effectively for future generations (intergenerational equity). This is a major issue in Australia as indicated by the government’s commitment to the Kyoto Agreement and the introduction of a carbon tax. Body ESD Principles Discuss the government’s key ESD principles (especially…integrating economic and environmental goals). Discuss negative externalities, the tragedy of commons and draw demand and supply curves illustrating how prices increase when social costs are included in market prices. It is important that you explain the concept of market failure. The market fails to value the environment so the government must intervene to ensure resources are not exhausted and the environment is preserved for future generations. Environmental Issues There are a number of environmental issues for the Australian Government to consider: a) Preserving natural environments by restricting mining locations, controlling logging, protecting native plant and animal species. b) Reducing pollution by reducing the use of CFCs, recycling, improving water quality and reducing salinity in major rivers. c) Monitor climate change by setting targets to reduce carbon emissions by introducing a carbon tax, becoming less dependent on fossil fuels and changing land-use d) Reduce the depletion of non-renewable natural resources by controlling commercial fishing, grazing and logging. Government Policies Bans, taxes and fines have often been used in the past to regulate the behaviour of business. eg leaded petrol was initially taxed in order to reduce consumption and was ultimately banned by the government. The government also imposes fines on firms when environmental laws are broken. The Labor Government signed the Kyoto Protocol in 2008 and has established a number of medium-term and long-term carbon emission targets (reduce carbon emissions from between 5%-25% by 2020 and by 80% by 2050). In 2011 the government moved towards a market-based approach to carbon emissions by introducing a carbon tax of $23/tonne. The aim is for firms to introduce methods of production which will reduce carbon emissions. In 2015 the government planned to introduce a ‘cap and trade’ emissions trading scheme. The introduction of a carbon tax is a very significant policy change for the government. It means it is trying to force the market to recognise there are economic advantages in not producing carbon. However, the new Liberal Government plans to scrap the carbon tax. This means Australia has no policy in place in relation to reducing CO2 emissions. In this section it is important you explain how the Labor Government was committed to a number of international agreements on a variety of issues…carbon emissions, commercial fishing, biodiversity, CFCs, Ozone. However, we are yet to see any policy initiatives from the new Liberal Government. Conclusion Year 12 Economics- Topic Summary Topic 4 – Economic Policies and Management This topic focuses on the aims and operation of economic policies in the Australian economy and hypothetical situations. Economic Objectives Internal Stability/balance and economic growth External Stability/balance Environment Income inequality Fiscal Policy - Macroeconomic Policy (demand management) Budget outcome (deficit, surplus, balanced) Budget stance (expansionary, contractionary, neutral) Recent trends- Keynesian diagram Redistribution of income, reallocation of resources and stabilisation of business cycle Financing a deficit- crowding out Retiring a surplus Monetary Policy- Macroeconomic Policy (demand management) Role MP- low inflation 2%-3% target MP purpose/goals Role of RBA in the implementation of MP (stance) Impact of interest rates on the economy Microeconomic Policy Supply side Economics- aggregate supply curve Structural change Examples of MER – Labour market reform, Competition Policy, Trade and Industry Policy, Deregulation, Tax Reform Positives and Negatives of MER Prices and Incomes Policy Centralised v decentralised wage determination Current industrial system- Fair Work Australia Dispute resolution Education and Training Limitations of policy Time lags Global economy Pressure groups Policy responses to objectives Macro Policies Introduction What are Macroeconomic Policies? Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy are the two macro tools available to the government. These policies can be used to regulate aggregate demand and production. Monetary policy indirectly controls domestic interest rates and Fiscal Policy is the annual Federal Budget- control government spending and taxation. Body What is aggregate demand? Y= C + I + G + (X-M)…Aggregate demand determines how much firms will produce (output = GDP) and the quantity of resources firms require to produce goods and services (this will determine employment). If aggregate demand increases, unemployment will fall and living standards will rise- boom in the business cycle. A decrease in aggregate demand will cause a slowdown in production and an increase in unemployment (draw the business cycle to illustrate) Explain how Monetary Policy works The RBA attempts to control the cash rate through buying and selling second hand CGS on the official short-term money market. Expansionary Monetary Policy RBA buys CGS from financial institutions cash rate falls financial institutions have increased liquidity interest rates fall borrowing increases aggregate demand increases production increases demand for resources increases unemployment falls. Excess growth will cause demand inflation and a rise in the demand for imports The RBA has maintained the Cash Rate at 2.5%) to counteract a tightening of Fiscal Policy. Contractionary Monetary Policy RBA sells CGS to financial institutions cash rate rises financial institutions have decreased liquidity interest rates rise borrowing decreases aggregate demand slows down production slows down demand for resources slows down inflation decreases. If interest rates are too high the economy could slow down too much and cyclical unemployment could occur. There is a long time lag involved (12-18 months) Explain how Fiscal Policy works Potentially can expand or contract the economy through discretionary changes in G or T in the annual budget. Expansionary Fiscal Policy (loose) Government increases G and/or decreasing T increased expenditure increases aggregate demand increases productionincrease demand for resources unemployment falls. Demand inflation could increase if the economy grows too quickly Contractionary Fiscal Policy (tight) Government decreases G and/or increases T decreased expenditure slows down aggregate demand slows down production slows down demand for resources inflation falls. Cyclical unemployment could increase if the economy slows down too much. This year Fiscal Policy is mildly contractionary as the government attempts to reduce the size of the budget deficit. In the long run the government aims to achieve fiscal balance over the course of the business cycle. Monetary Policy is continues to be expansionary with a record low cash rate of 2.5%. The economy is showing signs of sustainable growth as private sector housing and business investment increase. Conclusion Fiscal Policy Introduction What is Fiscal Policy? Fiscal Policy is a macroeconomic policy that can be used by the government to regulate aggregate demand and production. Fiscal Policy is implemented through the government’s annual budget. It involves the regulation of aggregate demand by the government changing its level of planned spending (G) and planned tax revenue (T). Fiscal policy has the power to redistribute income, reallocate resources and regulate (stabilize) the economy. Body What is aggregate demand? Y= C + I + G + (X-M) Aggregate demand determines how much firms will produce (output = GDP) and the quantity of resources firms require to produce goods and services (this will determine employment). If aggregate demand increases unemployment will fall and living standards will rise- boom in the business cycle but demand inflation may occur. If aggregate demand decreases the economy could fall into a recession and unemployment would increase (draw the business cycle to illustrate)- mention the multiplier effect Explain how Fiscal Policy works Potentially Fiscal Policy can expand or contract the economy through discretionary changes in G or T in the annual budget. This means the government is deliberately planning to increase aggregate demand to cause economic growth and reduce unemployment. On the other hand the government may want to deliberately slow down the growth of aggregate demand and thus the growth rate of the economy. Expansionary Fiscal Policy stance (Keynesian Diagram – deflationary gap) Government increases G and/or decreasing T increased expenditure increases aggregate demand increases productionincrease demand for resources unemployment falls. In this case the budget deficit would increase or the budget surplus would decrease. The budget outcome depends on the discretionary stance of the government and the previous budget outcome. Demand inflation could increase if the economy grows too quickly. An expansionary Fiscal Policy stance would be implemented if the economy was in recession and Monetary Policy had been ineffective in causing the economy to grow. Contractionary Fiscal Policy stance Government decreases G and/or increases T decreasing expenditure decreasing the growth in aggregate demand slows down the growth of productionslows down the growth in demand for resources unemployment increases. In this case the budget deficit would decrease or the budget surplus would increase. The budget outcome depends on the discretionary stance of the government and the previous budget outcome. In recent years Fiscal Policy has become an important tool to increase economic growth. The government gave income tax cuts to increase demand and it increased government spending on infrastructure to directly create jobs – it also gave tax payers a $900 cash bonus. This increased the size of the budget deficit significantly. The 2013/2014 budget will have a smaller deficit as the government attempts to consolidate its fiscal position. The government will plan for surpluses in the future in order to repay the debt caused by budget deficits in recent years. The government’s aim is to balance the budget over the course of the business cycle. Conclusion Monetary Policy Introduction What is Monetary Policy? Monetary Policy has been the main macroeconomic policy used by the government to regulate aggregate demand and production over the last 10 years. Monetary policy indirectly controls domestic interest rates through the official cash rate. Interest rates in turn will influence the level of borrowing, spending and production in the economy. The main aim of Monetary Policy has been to control inflation- inflation target is 2%-3% Body What is aggregate demand? Y= C + I + G + (X-M) Aggregate Demand determines how much firms will produce (output = GDP) and the quantity of resources firms require to produce goods and services (this will determine employment). If aggregate demand increases unemployment will fall and living standards will rise- boom in the business cycle. Explain what happens if the economy goes into a recession (draw the business cycle to illustrate) Explain how Monetary Policy works The RBA attempts to control the cash rate through buying and selling second hand CGS on the official short-term money market. Expansionary Monetary Policy (loose) RBA buys CGS from financial institutions cash rate falls financial institutions have increased liquidity interest rates fall borrowing increases aggregate demand increases production increases demand for resources increases unemployment falls. Excess growth will cause demand inflation and a rise in the demand for imports Draw a Keynesian diagram to show an increase in aggregate demand and economic growth to a higher GDP equilibrium Contractionary Monetary Policy (tight) RBA sells CGS to financial institutions cash rate increases financial institutions have less liquidity interest rates rise borrowing decreases aggregate demand slows down production slows demand for resources slows inflation falls. (unemployment may also increase). Explain that although Monetary Policy could change from month to month (easy and quick to implement) the time lag between implementation and the final effect is very long (12-18 months). The RBA maintains a low cash rate of 2.5% due to a tighter fiscal stance and uncertainty about the global economy. If demand inflation becomes a problem the RBA will increase the cash rate. Monetary Policy was the main swing arm of the Government over the last 10 years. However, Fiscal Policy has played a significant role in demand management in recent years because the economy required quick and effective stimulus. Micro economic reform has assisted macroeconomic policies by reducing supply-side inflation. Conclusion Microeconomic Reform Introduction What is microeconomic reform? Policies designed to improve the efficiency of individual sectors/industries in the economyreferred to as supply side economics. Micro has been an extremely important component of the policy mix (Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy are demand management policies and Microeconomic policies attempt to improve the efficiency of supply). Micro policies attempt to control inflation and improve Australia’s international competitiveness. Body Outline microeconomic theory Shift the supply curve to the right (draw a demand and supply diagram). This decreases prices and causes an expansion of demand. Inflation will fall and the economy will grow. Microeconomic reform attempts to increase efficiency- allocative efficiency, dynamic efficiency and technical efficiency (briefly explain each). Structural change is a necessary aspect of micro reform. Examples of micro reform Deregulation – agricultural markets and financial markets- this has increased the efficiency of markets- interest rates are lower and financial institutions are more competitive. Public Trading Enterprises – corporatisation and privatisation. The public sector was generally considered to be inefficient in Australia. Privatisation has been used to increase efficiency and provide the government with funds to repay debt. National Competition Policy – include the Trade Practices Act, the ACCC and Hilmer’s recommendations. Increased competition generally leads to increased efficiency and lower prices. Taxation Reform - GST has improved allocative efficiency Industry Policy – Lowering protection has caused lots of restructuring in the economy. Strategic export industries are now helped. Labour Market Policy – Enterprise bargaining has contributed significantly to improving labour market productivity. Probably the most important microeconomic reform Advantages and Disadvantages of Microeconomic reformLong term benefits of microeconomic reform and structural change- increased efficiency and productivity, lower inflation, improved international competitiveness, economic growth, lower unemployment, increase exports Short term costs of higher structural unemployment, higher demand for imports, increased CAD, growing foreign debt, loss of inefficient industries Micro economic reform has played a key role in improving the efficiency of the economy and promoting low inflationary sustainable economic growth. A key issue for the government is how to improve efficiency further to allow for improvements in productivity. Many economists believe the taxation system needs significant reform in the future to promote investment and improve the incentive effect for workers. Conclusion Labour Market Policies Introduction What is wage determination? Australia moved towards a more deregulated and flexible labour market with the introduction of enterprise agreements over 15 years ago. Wage determination in Australia is a complex combination of state and federal legislation regulating formal (industrial law) and informal (common law) wage agreements. In addition a proportion of workers depend on wage increases based on safety net wage adjustments determined by a centralise commission (Fair Work Australia). Body Outline the key aspects of wage determination in Australia Formal agreement: industrial relations system is based on enterprise agreements (collective bargaining 43%) based on productivity trade-offs subject to BOOT and award adjustments determined by Fair Work Australia (15%). Informal agreements: common law contracts usually individually based (37%).National Employment Standards (10 guaranteed employment conditions apply to all workers except self-employed. Minimum wage increases are determined by Fair Work Australia (3% rise in 2014 to $640/wk). Australia has experienced labour productivity growth, economic growth, lower inflation and falling unemployment since moving from a centralised wage determination system to a decentralised wage determination system. Industrial disputes and union membership have declined significantly over the last 15 years. Income inequality has increased as award wage increases have lagged behind enterprise agreement wage increases. Outline the key aspects of a decentralised wage determination Positives: Resources are more efficiently allocated and structural change is promoted as market forces determine wages and the demand for labour. The labour market becomes more flexible as workers and employers have the opportunity to negotiate wages and working conditions. Cost push inflation pressure is reduced as wage increases are productivity based. Negatives: The government loses a potential economic tool to control aggregate demand. Income inequality will increase as wages reflect contribution to the economy rather than the decision of a tribunal. Wage demands could escalate as workers gain more power in the labour market. Fair Work Australia FWA plays a key role in the industrial relations system as a result of the Fair Work Act 2009: determining minimum wage increases (safety net), overseeing awards and enterprise agreements especially in relation to National Employment Standards and resolving disputes through conciliation and arbitration. A significant aspect of the Fair Work Act was to create Fair Work Australia as a statutory body to oversee the rights of workers in a decentralised wages system. Conclusion