Policy Research Fund
Title: Understanding the nature and scale of urban risk in developing countries and its
implications for humanitarian preparedness, planning and response
Key Policy Issue/Research Question
Projections from the UN show that the bulk of the world’s population increase will occur over the
coming decades in towns and cities of the developing world, particularly in Africa and Asia. Most
of this growth will be located in under serviced, often informal low-income settlements or slums.
At the same time that the absolute numbers of people living in cities is growing, we also know
that these populations are likely to be increasingly exposed to hazards, including extreme
weather caused by climate change and violence.
Cities are very complex environments, and in many cases, alongside physical vulnerabilities,
community livelihoods and well-being are challenged by other vulnerabilities such as weak and
unaccountable city governance, lack of adherence to planning codes, low levels of basic services
and an absence of legal tenure. When a natural disaster occurs, these and other factors will
impact upon the ability of individuals, communities and authorities to respond and recover.
In order for DFID and other humanitarian and development actors to promote urban resilience
and disaster risk reduction, and to respond effectively to the humanitarian emergencies that are
likely to occur in cities, policy makers need better evidence on the ways in which multiple
vulnerabilities and hazards overlap, and how risk in cities is changing in nature and scale. They will
also benefit from analysis of how increasing urbanisation is likely to impact on the types and
levels of risks urban populations will face in coming decades.
Through a synthesis and analysis of available academic and policy literature, with a particular
emphasis on evidence from Africa and Asia, this research will draw out lessons for humanitarian
policy in both disaster resilience and response. In doing so it will inform our understanding of the
scope and quality of the current evidence base, identify the knowledge gaps on how multiple
hazards and vulnerabilities overlap to generate risk in cities of the developing world and inform
the development of a new programme of research under the Humanitarian Evidence and
Innovation Strategy
What are the key questions to be addressed?
1. What evidence is available on how multiple hazards and vulnerabilities overlap to generate risk
in cities in the developing world?
2. What does research tell us about how risks have changed in nature and scale with urbanisation
over the past decades?
3. How has research been used to make projections about future risks?
4. Where are cities in the developing world most at risk, and how is this risk calculated?
5. What are the policy implications of the changing nature of risk for DFID’s and the wider
humanitarian system’s disaster resilience and response work?
6. How do risks in urban areas impact upon humanitarian space and the effectiveness of
humanitarian response?
7. Which types of risk and geographical areas have been given greatest attention in the literature?
8. What are the evidence gaps that could be filled by DFID funded research?
What is the expected duration/timeframe for delivery – to a maximum of 12 months
The desk based study will be undertaken over a six week period (June 25th – August 17th 2012)
with the final agreed report being provided within 14 days of the completion of the work.
Proposed Budget
£ 9625
How will the research contribute to;a) new knowledge and insights to inform policy and
b) build on existing studies and research knowledge.
Through a synthesis and analysis of available academic and policy literature, the research will
draw out lessons for humanitarian policy in both disaster resilience and response. It will identify
where research has focused – both thematically and geographically – and where critical evidence
gaps remain.
Specifically the research will:
1. Contribute to policy debate within DFID on how we promote urban resilience.
2. Improve DFID and other humanitarian actors’ understanding of how urban risk has been
conceptualised and measured in the academic and policy literature.
3. Assess how urban risk has been changing in nature and scale over recent decades
4. Identify gaps in the evidence and provide recommendations for the development of
future research programmes that will generate policy relevant knowledge on urban risk
What is the overall purpose of the research and what is it intended to accomplish?
The overall purpose of the research is to inform DFID’s current work on resilience and feed into
on-going internal debate on whether the Department should focus greater attention on the
impacts of urbanisation. The review will help DFID staff assess the quality of available evidence on
the nature and scale of risk in urban areas and identify any gaps in the evidence that might be
covered by research stemming from the Humanitarian Evidence and Innovation Strategy. It will
also inform debates within CHASE on the appropriateness of the current approach towards
responding to disasters in urban areas.
What type of research initiative is proposed? How will it be carried out and what methods might
be used to generate the findings and outputs (desk reviews, surveys, fieldwork, etc.)?
The research proposed is a desk-based analytical literature review of academic papers and policy
documents.
The review will contain a short methodological annex detailing how the initial search for literature
was conducted.
Two independent peer reviewers will review the first draft of the literature review to ensure that
it has covered an appropriate range and breadth of academic and policy documents. The peer
reviewers will be identified by the nominated supplier, in consultation with DFID.
Research outputs
A 30 page analytical literature review (with a two-page executive summary) that may be used to
inform design of a DFID research programme. It will be disseminated within DFID and to relevant
interested partners. The researchers will be encouraged to publish an overview of the findings in
an academic or practitioner oriented journal, and the review and summary will be made available
on the R4D site.
The researchers will make a presentation and help to facilitate at a half-day workshop in late
August on the findings of the review and on potential future research directions. Participants at
the workshop will include DFID staff alongside representatives of a broad range of academic and
policy research institutes with an interest in urban disaster risk reduction and humanitarian
interventions.
Skills and personnel
A research assistant and senior researcher with knowledge of urban vulnerability and risk, with
additional input from a research assistant with knowledge of humanitarian interventions in cities.
Potential Users/User Engagement - inside DFID, across HMG and in partner countries
DFID humanitarian policy and response groups, RED, country offices, multilateral and NGO
partners
Communication strategy – engaging users and communicating findings (including R4D etc)
Distribution through the Urbanising Development email list and Teamsite. Publication on the R4D
website.
Nominated supplier OR list of suppliers for competition
The nominated supplier is the International Institute for Environment and Development, London.
A senior researcher at IIED, has already been identified to guide the work of a research
assistant, also at IIED and provide expert input to the review. It is suggested that a second
research assistant with knowledge of humanitarian interventions is sub-contracted by IIED for 5
days’ work. We will hold a discussion with IIED on possible research institutes to approach for a
suitable research assistant.
Breakdown of estimated budget
Total = £ 9625