Sales and domestic demand expected to recover somewhat in
3rd quarter of 2004
The Korean economy showed signs of recovery in the 2 nd quarter of 2004,
and is expected to continue recovering slowly in the 3rd quarter.
The Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy surveyed 5,849
companies on their second quarter BSI (Business Survey Index) and
outlook for the third quarter.
With the BSI, a figure above 100 indicates an improvement in business
conditions, while a figure below 100 reflects a worsening climate. In the
second quarter of 2004, sales recorded 102, exports 105, facility
investments 105, facility operation 103, and employment 103.
<Manufacturers’ BSI>
2003
2Q
Actual(Outlook)
Sales
2004
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
Actual(Outloo Actual(Outloo Actual(Outloo Actual(Outloo
k)
k)
k)
k)
3Q
(Outlook)
Domestic demand
Exports
Inventory
94
91
(108)
(104)
87
84
(105)
(102)
112 (114)
106 (110)
95
92
(107)
(102)
102 (116)
95 (110)
(106)
(101)
97
108
(106)
(104)
(107)
(102)
110 (109)
105 (101)
101
105
(110)
(103)
105 (114)
108 (102)
(107)
(104)
Operating profits
Facility investments
90
104
(101)
(106)
(99)
(104)
101 (104)
108 (104)
87
104
(101)
(108)
93 (102)
105 (108)
(98)
(105)
Facility operation
Employment
Average wage of
employees
Raw material prices
96
100
114
(108)
(105)
(117)
(104)
(102)
(109)
110 (111)
104 (104)
109 (109)
100
103
111
(108)
(105)
(115)
103 (113)
103 (106)
116 (116)
(106)
(104)
(111)
118
(127)
(114)
121 (113)
154
(122)
140 (144)
(123)
Average interest
104
(110)
(104)
106 (103)
111
(108)
110 (111)
(108)
Cash flow
Product prices
84
88
(95)
(94)
94
10
9
84
10
4
93
98
11
0
11
5
10
3
80
88
(93)
(92)
94
94
83
97
(97)
(94)
85
96
(94)
(95)
(99)
(93)
(97)
(102)
By industry, sales of semiconductors (103), shipbuilding (115), machinery
(107), and steel (107) recorded over 100, while sales of textiles (77) and
lumber (86) recorded below 100.
<BSI by industry>
2003
2004
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
Actual(Outlook) Actual(Outlook Actual(Outlook Actual(Outlook) Actual(Outlook)
)
)
Electronics
3Q
(Outlook)
94 (122)
102 (122)
129 (128)
95 (112)
100 (125)
(118)
100 (110)
102 (116)
124 (116)
126 (125)
103 (133)
(102)
Automobiles
90 (102)
63 (92)
114 (131)
92 (100)
106 (109)
(104)
Shipbuilding
94 (110)
94 (110)
103 (105)
102 (98)
115 (111)
(108)
Machinery
97 (102)
87 (99)
111 (108)
102 (115)
107 (113)
(105)
Steel
98 (118)
87 (99)
112 (106)
102 (108)
107 (121)
(104)
Chemicals
91 (103)
92 (107)
112 (118)
93 (109)
103 (115)
(105)
Electric
machinery
Textiles
103 (110)
84 (109)
118 (113)
71 (98)
104 (117)
(106)
72 (95)
80 (96)
88 (93)
77 (101)
77 (113)
(98)
89 (112)
99 (105)
113 (115)
97 (119)
104 (118)
(113)
109 (113)
83 (100)
113 (104)
79 (82)
101 (118)
(107)
85 (109)
74 (95)
93 (98)
79 (95)
86 (95)
(97)
104 (112)
86 (102)
115 (119)
108 (102)
118 (122)
(114)
93 (108)
89 (107)
111 (113)
94 (109)
99 (115)
(104)
Export firms
95 (108)
92 (108)
118 (114)
104 (112)
104 (121)
(107)
Domestic
suppliers
94 (108)
88 (105)
109 (114)
93 (107)
100 (115)
(105)
Semiconductors
Precision
machinery
Non-metal,
oil refining
Lumber, paper,
printing
Conglomerates
SMEs
In the second quarter, sales at small and medium sized companies were
weaker than at conglomerates, and sales for domestic consumption were
weaker than those for exports.
In the outlook for the third quarter, sales are expected to record 106,
domestic demand 101, facility investments 105, and employment 104,
showing increases from the previous quarter, while wages (111) and raw
material prices (123) are expected to decrease.