Government 94sp
The Future of War
Stephen Peter Rosen
Spring 2015
Course Meeting:
Office Hours:
Email:
Tuesdays 2-4
By appointment
stephenprosen@gmail.com
Seminar Papers Due Wednesday, May 1
General Information
The purpose of this course will be to explore the future sources and character of
inter-state and intra-state conflict in ways that lead to policy recommendations.
Attention will be paid, initially, to methods for thinking about future policy issues
that differ from standard social science analysis. Role-playing simulations will be
employed in two meetings of the seminar. A 30 page research paper will be
written for the course. All students will make an in-class presentation on their
preliminary research in weeks eight through eleven. The paper will be due at the
end of reading period and will be the basis for 70% of the final grade. Class
participation will count for 30% of the final grade. The class cannot be taken
pass-fail.
A course book will be available for students enrolled in the course. The following
books are required reading and the assigned material will not be in the source
book:
Ernest May, Strange Victory
Stephen Peter Rosen, War and Human Nature
Philip E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment
These books are available in paperback for purchase from on-line vendors with
shipping times of 2-3 days. Students taking the course must make arrangements to
read these books in sufficient time for their discussion in class.
January 27 – Week One: Organizational Meeting
February 3 – Week Two: Political Judgment and Forecasting
1. Isaiah Berlin, “On Political Judgment,” New York Review of Books, October 3,
1996, pp. 26-30.
2. James Fearon, “Rationalist Explanations for War,” International Organization 49
(Summer 1995): 379-414.
3. Philip E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment (Princeton: Princeton University
Press, 2005), Chapters 1-4, pp. 1-143.
February 10 – Week Three: Political Regime Types
4. Stephen Peter Rosen, “Of Time, Testosterone, and Tyrants,” in Stephen Peter
Rosen, War and Human Nature (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2005), pp
135-178.
5. Ernest May, Strange Victory, (New York: Hill and Wang, 2000), Chapter 6,
“War!” Chapter 7, “Hitler,” Chapter 8, “Daladier,” Chapter 9, “Gamelin,”
Chapter 10, “Cross Currents,” Chapter 11, “To Munich,” Chapter 12,
“Chamberlain,” Chapter 13, “Enough!” and Chapter 14, “Accepting War, pp. 70212.
6. Thomas J. Christensen, Useful Adversaries (Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton
University Press, 1996), Chapter 4, “Absent at the Creation,” and Chapter 5, “The
Real Lost Chance in China,” pp. 77-193.
February 17 – Week Four: Competitive Strategies
7. “Response to NSSD 11-82 U.S. Relations With the USSR,” December 6, 1982.
8. Andrew W. Marshall and James Roche, “Strategy for Competing with the Soviets
in the Military Sector of the Continuing Political-Military Competition” (1976).
9. Gordon S. Barrass, “U.S. Competitive Strategy During the Cold War,” in Thomas
G. Mahnken, ed., Competitive Strategies for the 21st Century, pp. 71-89.
February 24 – Week Five: China
10. Christopher A. Ford, The Mind of Empire (Lexington, Kentucky: University of
Kentucky Press, 2010), pp. 1-7, and 249-282.
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11. Michael Pillsbury, Chinese Views of Future Warfare (Washington, DC: NDU
Press, 1997), Part Four, “The Revolution in Military Affairs,” pp. 249-420.
12. Aaron Friedberg, The Struggle for Mastery in Asia, Commentary, November
2000, pp 17-28 (http://webhost/ebird/ebird_sup/s20001102struggle.htm).
13. Annual Report to Congress, The Military Power of the People’s Republic of
China 2007, (http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/070523-China-MilitaryPower-final.pdf).
14. Larry Wortzel, China’s Nuclear Forces (Carlyle Barracks: U.S. Army War
College,
2007).http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=776
March 3 – Week Six: Simulation: China Confronts Japan
March 10 – Week Seven: Simulation: A US-PRC Competition
March 17 – SPRING RECESS: NO CLASS
March 24 – Week Eight: Student Presentations
March 31 – Week Nine: Student Presentations
April 7 – Week Ten: Student Presentations
April 14 – Week Eleven: Student Presentations
April 21 – Week Twelve: Student Presentations
April 28 – NO CLASS
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