GoK
14.11.2
SWFDP GUIDANCE PRODUCTS
MEDIUM- RANGE (DAY 3 TO 5)
Date Issued: Thursday 25th October, 2012
Validity: 27th to 29th October, 2012
Starting Time: 0900Z
1.
Preamble
These Guidance Products are based on a skilful evaluation of both Regional and Global model
outputs for the domain area, Satellite imagery at the hour of issue and, expert interpretation that
takes into consideration interactions with the local features. For generating the guidance products,
the following criteria are used:
 50mm and above of rainfall in 24 hours is classified as “heavy”;
 Wind speeds in excess of 25m/s are classified as “strong”; while
 Wave heights above 2 m are “significant” with regard to maritime activities.

DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE: High Confidence is“>75%”, Medium Confidence is“5075%” and Low Confidence is“<50%”.
2.
Medium Range (Day 3 to 5) Guidance Products
Day
Day 3:
Saturday 27th
October 2012
Parameter
Severe Weather Expected
Rainfall
Moderate heavy rains expected over Western
and eastern Uganda, Western Kenya, North and
off Southeast coast of Tanzania and southern
eastern Ethiopia.
Winds with more than 25 knots expected over
Off coast of Southeastern Tanzania and
Northern parts of Kenya.
No significant severe Wave height with more
than 2 meters expected over Kenya and
Tanzania coastal regions.
Moderate heavy rains expected over Western
and eastern Uganda, Western Kenya, North and
off Southeast coast of Tanzania and southern
eastern Ethiopia.
Winds with more than 25 knots expected over
Winds
Waves
Day 4:
Sunday 28th
October 2012
Rainfall
Winds
Degree of
Confidence
Medium
High
High
Medium
High
Waves
Day 5:
Rainfall
Monday 28th
October 2012
Winds
Waves
Off coast of Southeastern Tanzania and
Northern parts of Kenya
No significant severe Wave height with more
than 2 meters expected over Kenya and
Tanzania coastal regions.
Moderate heavy rains expected over Western
and eastern Uganda, Western Kenya, North and
off Southeast coast of Tanzania and southern
eastern Ethiopia.
Winds with more than 25 knots expected over
Off coast of Southeastern Tanzania and
Northern parts of Kenya.
No significant severe Wave height with more
than 2 meters expected over Kenya and
Tanzania coastal regions.
High
Medium
High
High