DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

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UNIVERSITY OF KENT

Module Specification

1. Title:

Empirical Macroeconomics (EC820)

2. School:

Economics

3. Start Date:

Session 2006-2007

4. Number of Students:

5 -10 students

5. Withdrawn Modules:

This module replaces EC801 as part of the School’s restructuring of taught postgraduate programmes in Economics.

6. Level:

Level M (FHEQ Level: 7)

7. Credits:

15 credits

8. Terms Taught:

Spring term

9. Pre/co-requisites:

EC805 Advanced Macroeconomics I

EC8xx Econometric Methods (formerly EC812 Quantitative Economics I).

10. Programme of Study:

MSc in Economics - optional

MSc in Economics and Econometrics - optional

MSc in Economics and Finance - optional

MSc in International Finance and Development - optional

11. Specific Learning Outcomes:

The module aims

 to develop students understanding and ability to apply econometric techniques for the modelling of macroeconomic phenomena;

 to use an intuitive approach by use of practical examples and class based workshops using econometric packages such as PcGive and PcGets;

 to give participants the ability to critically evaluate empirical literature and carry out empirical research.

On successful completion of the module, students will

 have a better understanding of econometric techniques, particularly those used in with time series data;

 be more critical in their reading and interpretation of their own empirical macroeconomic research;

 have the ability to undertake unsupervised practical work using (for example) PcGive and

PcGets;

 be practiced in analysing macroeconomic time series using appropriate macroeconometric techniques;

 be able to make oral presentations of empirical macroeconomic work;

 have developed the ability to report applied macroeconometric work in written form.

The quantitative analysis of economic data and empirical evaluation of economic models are crucial to the study and application of modern economics. The ability to apply macroeconometric methods also constitutes an essential part of modern postgraduate degree training in economics.

This module contributes substantially to the subject skills acquired in all the MSc programmes, specifically:

Economics MSc - A1-10; C1-10

Economics and Econometrics MSc – A1-10; C1-10

Economics and Finance MSc – A1-10; C1-10

International Finance and Economic Development MSc – A1-11; C1-12

12. Generic Learning Outcomes:

As regards general and transferable skills, the module will develop and reinforce student’s skills in a number of different areas. In particular, students successfully completing this module will have:

 developed their ability to utilise modern computing resources to access and acquire macroeconomic data from the Internet (and other available sources) and utilise standard PC software (currently: PcGive and PcGets) to generate written reports and undertake oral presentations;

 acquired the ability to undertake modelling of economic behaviour and use statistical software

 developed numeracy and problem solving skills from the interpretation and manipulation of quantitative macroeconomic models;

 presented economic arguments orally as well as in written form;

 acquired the ability to undertake self-directed study involving the completion of a final written report on an empirical project from within the general field of macroeconomics.

This module contributes to most of the intellectual and transferable skills of the MSc programmes, specifically:

Economics MSc - B1-6; D1-10

Economics and Econometrics MSc – B1-6; D1-10

Economics and Finance MSc – B1-6; D1-10

International Finance and Economic Development MSc – B1-6; D1-10

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13. Curriculum:

The module offers a research-oriented introduction to contemporary empirical macroeconomics by linking macroeconometric theory to empirical studies of the macroeconomy. The course looks at the models and methods used in central banks and research institutions for the policy analysis and forecasting. It integrates empirical illustrations through the use of computer based exercises with macroeconomic data using (for example) PcGive and PcGets, widely used statistical packages providing many of the statistical tools for the analysis of macroeconomic time series.

The specific topics dealt with are:

 Stochastic processes;

 Linear and nonlinear time series models;

 Trend and cycle decompositions;

 Macroeconomic forecasting;

 Dynamic econometric models;

 Vector autoregressions and Cointegration;

 Structural analysis.

14. Indicative Reading List:

Macroeconometrics is a rapidly expanding area of econometric theory and application. While there will be no single text which covers the whole module, the following macroeconometric textbooks may be used in combination with research papers:

 Bårdsen, G., 0. Eitrheim, E. S. Jansen, and R. Nymoen (2004) The Econometrics of

Macroeconomic Modelling. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

 Enders, W. (1995) Applied Economics Time Series. New York: Wiley.

 Favero, C. A. (2001) Applied Macroeconometrics. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

 Hamilton, J. D. (1994) Time Series Analysis. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

 Hendry, D. F. (1995) Dynamic Econometrics. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

 Johansen, S. (1995) Likelihood-based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models.

Oxford: Oxford University Press.

 Juselius, K. (2006) The Cointegrated VAR Model: Econometric Methodology and Macroeconomic

Applications, forthcoming.

 Lütkepohl, H. (2006) New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. New York: Springer.

15. Learning and Teaching Methods:

The lectures introduce the module material and provide an overview of the principles of macroeconometric techniques (18 hours). Applications of these techniques are conducted in computing workshops using real world data (6 hours). Classes will review the material taught in the lecture by tackling theoretical exercises (6 hours). Seminars will be used to facilitate discussion and presentation of research papers as well as the undertaken applied econometric work (6 hours).

Because of the overlap with the subject matter of financial econometrics, four of the lecture sessions will be joint. It should be noted that the total number of separate direct teaching hours exceeds those in most other Economics MSc modules.

The seminar and class programme improves the analytical abilities of students, their understanding of the module material and their communication skills. The seminars and classes give the opportunity for each student to show his/her understanding of the module material and ask questions about topics they are not sure about. Advice and feedback on seminar communication skills are also given. The lectures and computer workshops are designed to improve the analytical

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and problem solving skills of students, and develop their ability to apply their knowledge and understanding of macroeconometric issues to real world data. Throughout the module, emphasis is put on the need for students to improve their own learning skills and academic performance. This is achieved through feedback on student work and academic guidance on private study. The total anticipated work load is 150 hours.

16. Assessment Methods:

Assessment is through a computer based exercise (20% of the final module mark), a class test (20% of the final module mark), a 2,500 word written empirical project on a macroeconomic topic (40% of the final module mark) and a presentation of the project (20% of the final module mark).

The coursework consists of theoretical and computing based exercises. The theoretical exercises consider the econometric theory material taught in the lectures. All of the computer based exercises will involve computing using the econometric packages like PcGive and PcGive to undertake econometric modelling of a relevant applied macroeconomic issue, and will test students’ analytical skills, their ability to formulate methods of analysis to investigate macro level data, and their ability to deal with practical problems and demonstrate an understanding of relevant issues that arise in applied macroeconometric work. Each student will face a unique data set. The coursework assesses all the non-oral specific and generic learning outcomes.

The written project is designed to allow students to demonstrate their knowledge and understanding of relevant macroeconometric topics in depth. The project will test their ability to select appropriate macroeconometric techniques for a particular problem and data set, to execute such techniques, and to report the results in a clear and concise manner. It will also evaluate their ability to apply the module knowledge and skills and construct and express logical arguments. Each project will be unique to a particular student. The students will give a presentation of their project and answer oral questions. The project and presentation assess and develop all specific and generic learning outcomes. The project will be submitted at the beginning of week 25 and the presentation will take place in this week.

17. Implications for Learning Resources:

Library: New textbooks and manuals required.

Computing: Additional facilities required for computing classes.

Staff: The department is satisfied that the necessary teaching resources are available.

Timetable: Apart from existing provision for lectures and seminars, six additional computing classes and a joint four-hour econometrics seminar in week 25 are needed.

Convenor: Prof Hans-Martin Krolzig.

18. Disability Implications:

As far as can be anticipated reasonably, the curriculum, learning and teaching methods and forms of assessment do not present any non-justifiable disadvantage to students with disabilities. Clearly individual cases may need to be drawn to the attention of the Director of Learning and Teaching.

Statement by the Director of Learning and Teaching: "I confirm I have been consulted on the above module proposal and have given advice on the correct procedures and required content of module proposals"

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Director of Learning and Teaching

Statement by the Head of School: "I confirm that the School has approved the introduction of the module and will be responsible for its resourcing"

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Head of School

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Date

Revised May 2006

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Date

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