Economics 100 Third Exam A November 3, 2006 Name ________________________ Please fill in your name above and on the bubble sheet (write in the relevant spaces and fill in the relevant bubbles). Please put your last name first. Each of the multiple-choice questions is worth three points. There are a total of 94 points on the exam. Please make sure that you have 7 pages. “I pledge my honor that I have neither given nor received aid on this examination.” _________________________________ 1. If the aggregate supply increases by more than the aggregate demand increases, what will likely happen to the short-run equilibrium level of inflation? ________ to output? ________ a. b. c. d. decrease; decrease decrease; increase increase; increase increase; decrease 2. The natural level of real GDP is $12 trillion. The economy is currently in equilibrium at a level of real GDP of $11 trillion. If the economy adjusts naturally, inflation will ________ and employment will _________. a. b. c. d. e. decrease; decrease decrease; increase increase; increase increase; decrease not change; not change 3. Given a concern with rising inflation, which of the following monetary policies should the Federal Reserve undertake? a. b. c. d. e. buy bonds and increase the required reserve ratio buy bonds and decrease the required reserve ratio sell bonds and increase the required reserve ratio sell bonds and decrease the required reserve ratio neither buy nor sell bonds, but decrease the required reserve ratio 4. In one economy, the amount of currency held as a percentage of money is small, but banks tend to make as many loans as they can. In a second, the amount of currency held as a percentage of money is large, but banks tend to make fewer loans than they can. In which economy will a sale of bonds have the largest effect on spending? 1 a. b. c. d. in the first economy in the second economy one cannot tell as the effects counteract one another in each economy one cannot tell as it depends upon the size of the spending multiplier 5. A _________ saving rate and a ________ required reserve ratio will mean that a Federal Reserve purchase of bonds will have a greater effect on spending. a. b. c. d. e. higher; higher lower; lower higher; lower lower; higher the saving rate does not affect monetary policy; higher 6. How should the Federal Reserve react to a recession created by a slowdown in the growth of spending? a. b. c. d. buy bonds and raise the discount rate sell bonds and raise the discount rate buy bonds and lower the discount rate sell bonds and lower the discount rate 7. Increases in interest rates and the length of time before a business earns a profit from a new investment will change the present value of the profit in which of the following ways? a. b. c. d. decrease increase one cannot tell as the two changes have opposite effects one cannot tell unless we know how long it will take to earn the profit 8. Suppose that the natural level of real GDP is growing. Spending is growing at a faster pace. As a result, prices will likely __________ and output will likely be _________ the natural level. a. b. c. d. e. decrease; more than decrease; less than increase; more than increase; less than not change; equal to 9. A sale of bonds by the Federal Reserve will do which of the following to bond prices and interest rates? a. b. c. d. e. decrease bond prices and lower interest rates decrease bond prices and not change interest rates increase bond prices and lower interest rates decrease bond prices and raise interest rates increase bond prices and raise interest rates 2 10. Compare two situations. Suppose that Canada has extremely low unemployment and the U.S. has very high unemployment. If everything else is the same, in which country will an increase in the money supply have the smallest effect on real GDP? a. The effects will be the same in both countries, as the multiplier does not depend upon unemployment. b. One cannot tell; it depends upon how much inflation the countries are currently experiencing. c. in Canada d. in the U.S. 11. Suppose the FOMC increases the target for the federal funds rate. What will happen to bond prices and interest rates? a. b. c. d. increase; increase increase; decrease decrease; decrease decrease; increase 12. The economy is growing. Investment has contributed to the steady expansion of capacity. Decreases in spending by consumers have insured that growth in total spending exists but is less than the expansion of capacity. Inflation should _________ and output should be ________. a. b. c. d. increase; more than full-employment GDP. increase; less than full-employment GDP. decrease; more than full-employment GDP. decrease; less than full-employment GDP. 13. The economy is growing. If wages increase due to conditions in the labor market and growth in consumption spending decreases, it is likely that overall price levels _____________ and real GDP will be ___________ than the full-employment level of real GDP. a. b. c. d. e. increase; less increase; greater one cannot tell; less one cannot tell; greater decrease; one cannot tell 14. A Federal Reserve purchase of bonds will have the greatest effect on real GDP if the amount of currency normally held as a percentage of money is ________ and the tax rate is ______. a. b. c. d. small; small small; large large; large large; small 3 e. A smaller or larger amount of currency will affect the result; the tax rate will not. (10 points) 15. Explain the roles of and the importance or lack of importance of the spending multiplier and the money multiplier in monetary policy. (15 points) 16. Assume the Federal Reserve sells bonds. Explain each step in the process of how that change affects the money supply in the economy and exactly why the changes occur. (You do not need to go beyond the discussion of the changes in the money supply.) (15 points) 17. Explain each step in how a contraction in the money supply affects interest rates and how that affects real GDP in the economy. Explain each step in the process and exactly why each occurs. (You do not need to explain how or why the money supply changes or go beyond a short-run equilibrium.) (12 points) 18. Summarize the short-run changes resulting from a negative supply shock. Then outline the steps from the new short-run equilibrium to the long-run equilibrium, including observations about the time it will take to adjust to the new equilibrium. Economics 100 Sample Answers - Third Exam November 3, 2006 Form A B C 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 b b c a b c a c a c d c d d c d d c a b b 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 A B C c d c d d c a c a b b c a b c a b c a c d (10 points) 15. Explain the roles of and the importance or lack of importance of the spending multiplier and the money multiplier in monetary policy. If the Federal Reserve were to buy bonds, it would expand bank reserves and deposits. The ultimate increase in money supply depends upon size of money multiplier as banks make additional loans and create additional money. Once the money supply increases and interest rates decrease, spending increases. A larger increase in the money supply will cause a greater decrease in interest rates which in turn will cause a greater increase in spending. The initial effect on spending is multiplied as the spending increases production and income and that causes spending to increase even further. The final effect on total spending then also depends upon the size of the spending multiplier. 4 (15 points) 16. Assume the Federal Reserve sells bonds. Explain each step in the process of how that change affects the money supply in the economy and exactly why the changes occur. (You do not need to go beyond the discussion of the changes in the money supply.) Buyers of those bonds write checks to Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve removes reserves from banks. The bank removes deposits from buyers’ accounts. Bank now do not have sufficient reserves to meet their reserve requirements. Bank reserves fall by the amount of the check and required reserves fall by a portion of that. Since actual reserves have contracted by a larger amount, banks have insufficient reserves and they will have to reduce the number of loans they can make. As that happens, deposits disappear and the amount of required reserves decline. Total reserves do not decline. How far banks will have to reduce their loans and deposits depends upon the size of the reserve requirement, whether banks are fully loaned out, and how much currency is deposited to repay loans. The greater the reserve requirement, the less the necessary reduction in loans will be. If banks are not fully loaned out, they will not have to reduce loans and deposits by as much. If some currency is used to pay off the loans, the reduction in the money supply will be less. This process of reduction in loans and reduction in required reserves will continue until the money supply has decreased enough so that the banks have sufficient reserves to meet their requirements. (15 points) 17. Explain each step in how a contraction in the money supply affects interest rates and how that affects real GDP in the economy. Explain each step in the process and exactly why each occurs. (You do not need to explain how or why the money supply changes or go beyond a short-run equilibrium.) A reduction in the money supply means that banks can make fewer loans than borrowers wish. Thus incentives exist for banks to raise interest rates and still make all of the loans they wish to make. Increases in interest rates will reduce the amount of loans customers want and the upward pressure on interest rates will continue until banks can no longer raise interest rates without losing business. Higher interest rates mean that investment is more costly and thus businesses cut investment spending. Some consumers may reduce spending to the extent that they are using savings or loans to finance purchases. As a result spending is less than output and inventories rise. If nothing else happened, businesses will cut back on production. Income falls, and individuals cut back on consumption. Total spending would decrease by a multiple of the initial cutback in spending. However, prices will fall as actual production is greater than the spending levels. Business will decrease production as they can no longer cover all of their costs. Because prices fall, spending rises from the level it would reach without the decrease in prices. That happens as the lower inflation means lower interest rates, increasing investment; higher real wealth, increasing consumption; and higher exports and lower imports. 5 This entire process continues until aggregate quantity demanded equals the aggregate quantity supplied. There is less real GDP than before the reduction in the money supply and the price level (or inflation) is less. (12 points) 18. Summarize the short-run changes resulting from a negative supply shock. Then outline the steps from the new short-run equilibrium to the long-run equilibrium, including observations about the time it will take to adjust to the new equilibrium. The short-run changes resulting from a negative supply shock are rising inflation or prices and falling output and employment and rising unemployment. The long –run changes occur because at the short-run equilibrium there is significant unemployment. That creates downward pressure on wages. Wages eventually fall, but this process is not fast. They are slow to fall as businesses are slow to lower wages and are often restricted by contracts. This is particularly true as prices just increased. After the decrease in wages, business costs fall. As a result, the amount businesses want to produce at current price levels is now greater than spending. As a result, prices decrease. Spending increases in response to the lower prices. The amount that businesses want to produce decreases as prices fall. This process continues until we return to full employment 6