PRESENTATION ON RISK CLASSIFICATION OF VELDFIRES AS A BASIS FOR PRIORITISING THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF FPAs
What does the Act require?

The Act requires a consistent basis for the setting of priorities for veldfire management interventions.

Setting priorities requires an assessment of the risk of veldfire in various localities.
Rationale

Veldfire risk is the chance of a veldfire igniting, spreading and causing damage to one or more assets, measured in
terms of likelihood and consequence.

The risk classification used is therefore based on:
o the likelihood of the natural vegetation burning
o the consequence should a fire occur.

The risk classification so derived is then assigned to each municipality.

But first, the fire types occurring within each municipality have to be determined.
Determining the fire type

Start at the biome level.

Vegetation within the biomes comes from the work of Low and Rebelo (1996) [see the presentation for a map of the
vegetation of South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland]

Vegetation types in Fynbos Biome:
o West Coast Renosterveld, North-Western Mountain Renosterveld, Central Mountain Renosterveld, Grassy
Fynbos, South & South-Eastern Coast Renosterveld, Escarpment Mountain Renosterveld, Laterite Fynbos,
Sand Plain Fynbos, Limestone Fynbos and Mountain Fynbos

For all vegetation types a fire type is assigned. A fire type is a set of vegetation types having a similar frequency and
nature of veldfire. (This is determined from available literature)
o e.g. Fynbos Fire Types: Laterite Fynbos, Sand Plain Fynbos, Limestone Fynbos and Mountain Fynbos

Veldfire risk is accessed for each fire type using standard risk assessment techniques
Vegetation of South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland: Low and Rebelo (1996) Department of Environmental Affairs
and Tourism, Pretoria
[See the presentation for this map]
Likelihood of a veldfire occurring (adapted from Standards Australia 1999)
Likelihood rating
Likelihood: indicative frequency
Description
Almost certain
1 in 2 years
Is expected to occur
Likely
1 in 5 years
Will probably occur
Possible
1 in 10 years
Might occur at some time
Unlikely
1 in 20 years
Could occur at some time
Rare
1 in 100 years
May only occur in exceptional
circumstances
Consequences in terms of social, economic and environmental impacts
Level
Social
Economic
Environmental
Catastrophic
Death.
Negative impact for large
part of the community or
region. Long-term outside
resources needed for
recovery.
Permanent loss of species
or habitats.
Major
Extensive injury and
evacuation.
Serious financial loss.
Outside assistance needed.
Temporary loss of species
and habitat destruction
needed several years to
recover.
Moderate
Medical treatment needed.
Localised damage to
property. Short-term
external assistance needed.
Serious impacts needing a
few years to recover.
Minor
First aid at scene.
Slight damage to assets.
No external help needed.
Environmental assets
recover rapidly.
Insignificant
No injuries.
No damage to property.
Minor temporary impact
Risk levels in terms of likelihood and consequences
Likelihood rating
Consequence rating
Insignificant
Minor
Moderate
Major
Catastrophic
Extreme (almost
certain)
Moderate
Moderate
High
Extreme
Extreme
High (likely)
Low
Moderate
High
Extreme
Extreme
Moderate
(possible)
Low
Moderate
High
High
Extreme
Low (unlikely)
Low
Low
Moderate
High
High
Actions to take depending on the level of risk
Risk level
Action needed
Extreme
Priority areas for risk reduction measures
High
Risk reduction measures by all relevant agencies
Moderate
Routine precautions to be undertaken by landowners
Low
No action required as veldfire is unlikely and consequences are negligible
Risk assessment and assessed risk levels in each fire type in South Africa
Fire type
Likelihood of critical
veldfire scenario
Consequence of critical
veldfire scenario
Veldfire risk level
Forest
Rare
Moderate
Low
Thicket
Rare
Moderate
Low
Arid Woodland
Possible
Major
High
Moist Woodland
Likely
Catastrophic
Extreme
Sparse Arid Woodland
Rare
Minor
Low
Succulent Karoo
Rare
Minor
Low
Nama Karoo
Unlikely
Minor
Low
Grassy Nama Karoo
Possible
Minor
Medium
Coastal Grassland
Likely
Minor
Medium
Sour Grassland
Almost Certain
Catastrophic
Extreme
Sweet Grassland
Likely
Moderate
High
Fynbos
Possible
Moderate
High
Renosterveld
Unlikely
Moderate
Risk classification method (at municipal level)

Use existing reports to:
o
o
o

Assume a critical fire scenario for each fire type.
Judge consequences of the scenario.
Assess the likelihood of the scenario.
Classify risk accordingly.
Assign fire risk to each municipality

Determine extent of fire type within municipality (Overlay municipality boundaries with Low and Rebelo map which is
based on untransformed vegetation)

>30% of area with highest fire risk determines fire type for that area

The risk level is determined by the dominant fire type

Risk level is downgraded if higher risk types are found in areas where they are not a hazard to assets (e.g. Fynbos
in isolated mountains)
Qualitative explanation of risk classifications

Moist woodland and sour grassland both rated as extreme.

Fynbos rated as high.
Assessed veldfire risk levels in some of the municipalities of the Western Cape, in each fire danger region
Fire danger
region
Municipality
code
Bokkeveld
Name of
municipality
WC022
Witzenberg
WCDMA01
WCDMA01
(Cedarberg)
WC025
Major town
Critical fire type
H
Fynbos
Citrusdal
H
Fynbos
Breede Valley
Worcester
M
Fynbos (patchy)
WC026
Breede
River/Winelands
Montagu
M
Renosterveld
WC042
Langeberg
Riversdale
H
Fynbos
WCDMA03
WCDMA03 (De
Hoop Nature
Reserve)
Bredasdorp
H
Fynbos
WC031
Theewaterskloof
Caledon
M
Renosterveld
WC032
Overstrand
Hermanus
H
Fynbos
WC033
Cape Agulhas
Bredasdorp
M
Renosterveld
WC034
Swellendam
Swellendam
M
Renosterveld
Breede River
Cape Agulhas to
Mossel Bay
Cape Hangklip
to Cape Agulhas
Ceres
Veldfire risk
level
SA municipalities classified by veldfire risk
[See the attached documents for this map]
Conclusion

This veldfire risk assessment provides a basis for prioritising FPAs, and assigning resources accordingly.

Those areas with the highest fire risk get the first FPAs.
An example at a finer scale

This approach can be used at finer scales e.g. Cape Peninsula National Park.

However, a comprehensive spatial database of the hazards and the social, environmental and economic assets is
needed
Veldfire likelihood map (Courtesy of the Cape Peninsula National Park)
[See the presentation for this map]
Veldfire consequence map (Courtesy of the Cape Peninsula National Park)
[See the presentation for this map]
Veldfire risk map (Courtesy of the Cape Peninsula National Park)
[See the presentation for this map]