Figures Figure 1: Overview of the Pan-Tropic Assessment Figure 2: Extent of tropical forest biomes and pan-tropical modeling domain Figure 3 Construction of the Biological Distinctiveness Index (BDI) Figure 4 Biological Distinctiveness Index for the Tropical Forest Biomes (WWF’s BDI) Figure 5 Global Conservation Status for the Tropical Forest Biomes Figure 6 Basin share of total globally or regionally high BDI areas within tropical forest biomes Figure 7 Share by basin of globally or regionally high BDI within the tropical forest biomes Figure 8 Basin share of total critical and endangered areas within the tropical forest biomes Figure 9 Share by basin of critical or endangered areas within the tropical forest biomes Figure 10 Biological Distinctiveness Index (BDI) for the tropical forest biomes -1- Define geographic and ecological scope of pan-tropical assessment: 1. Tropical forest biomes (tfb’s) 2. Basins containing tfb’s 3. Terrestrial biodiversity (at least initially) Scenarios Formulate land cover change scenarios for the pan-tropics (0.5 degree resolution): * Change within tropical forest biomes only * Four scenarios Threats to habitat and biodiversity: * Loss and fragmentation of habitat * Loss of endemic species/species diversity * Disruption of ecosystem function (e.g. loss of water purification/de-toxification capacity, fish migration) * ……. Species, Conservation, & Threat Data (WWF) Ecoregion and Biodiversity Databases (WWF 2000-03) Changes in biodiversity and conservation status: * extent, contiguity and fragmentation of remaining forest cover * biodiversity distinctiveness (mammal, bird and plant species counts for richness/endemism) of areas lost/remaining * loss of rare/unique “phenomena” Develop Analytical Scenarios Threats to hydological function: * Disruption of domestic, agricultural and industrial water supply * Increased flooding, erosion, landslide risks * Decreased effluent dilution capacity at low flows * ……. Global Hydrological Model (WBM UNH) Model Parameterization & Calibration Climatology * Long term av. monthly(1950-90) * Monthly time series (1950-95) Changes in hydrological response in watersheds/ basins containing tropical forest biome extents: * Mean and T year annual flows * Mean and T year highest monthly flow * Mean and T year lowest monthly flows * High/Low flow ratios Mapped and tabular summary of potential impacts Outcomes/ Impacts * By scenario * By forest biome & ecoregion * By river stretch * By downstream population served/threatened * By extent and population of flood plain * By major city in flood plain * By basin (* By major inland water body/estuary/coastal zone) Population, Biodiversity, Flood Plain, City Data Figure 1: Overview of the Pan-Tropic Assessment -2- Figure 2: Extent of tropical forest biomes and pan-tropical modeling domain. Co nstruction of the Biological Develop ment Ind ex (BDI) (based on W W F Indo-Pacific Report Methodolgy Description, W ikram anayake et al 2000) R IC H NE SS IND EX EN D EM ISM IN DE X Birds M am m als Birds M am m als Plants Plants Spec ies Spec ies GO =5 R O =3 B O =2 LI=1 ++ + ++ + + + + +++ + ++ +++ + +++ GO =5 RO =3 BO =2 LI=1 + ++ ++ ++ + ++ ++ Ec ore gions + + Ec ore gions Ecoregion Richness Index, RI (GO, RO, BO, LU) Ecoregion Endem ism Index, EI (GO, RO, BO, LU) = f (Bird + M am m als + Plant Richness Scores) = f (Bird + M am m als + Plant Endem ism Scores) Figure 3 Construction of the Biological Distinctiveness Index (BDI). Adapted from Wikramanayake et al. 2002. R ic hne ss En dem ism Ind ex, R EI = M ax (R I, E I) YE S Ad dition al Eco region Ph eno m ena ? e .g., uni que taxon omic grou p, rare ha bita ts, e xtrao rdi nary m igration s E lev ate RE I NO B io lo gic al D is tinctiven ess Inde x (B DI) (G O , RO , B O , LI) GO, globally outstanding RO, regionally outstanding BO, biologically outstanding LI, locally im portant -3- Figure 4 Biological Distinctiveness Index for the Tropical Forest Biomes (WWF’s BDI) Figure 5 Global Conservation Status for the Tropical Forest Biomes . -4- Figure 6 Basin share of total globally or regionally high BDI areas within tropical forest biomes Figure 7 Share by basin of globally or regionally high BDI within the tropical forest biomes . -5- Figure 8 Basin share of total critical and endangered areas within the tropical forest biomes Figure 9 Share by basin of critical or endangered areas within the tropical forest biomes -6- 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 50% NR 60% LI 50% BO 40% NR I/S 40% Vuln 30% C/E RO GO 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% Moist Broadleaf Dry Broadleaf Forest Forest Coniferous Moist Broadleaf Forest Dry Broadleaf Forest Coniferous . Figure 10 Biological Distinctiveness Index (BDI) for the tropical forest biomes (Olson et al. 2001; WWF 2003). GO: Globally Outstanding; RO: Regionally Outstanding; BO: Bioregionally Outstanding; LI: Local Interest; NR: No Ranking Figure 11 Global Conservation Status for the tropical forest biomes (Olson et al. 2001; WWF 2003). C/E: Critical / Endangered; Vuln: Vlunerable; I/S: Relatively Intact / Relatively Stable; NR: No Ranking -7-