Rotorua Air Quality Alternatives Analysis 1 Introduction To achieve the reduction of emissions in Rotorua required to meet national standards by the deadline of 2013, 15 actions have been identified in the draft Action Plan. Although these actions are considered to be the best mix, there are alternative approaches that may also achieve the reductions. This report analyses and discusses three of the most realistic alternative approaches, and compares them with the proposed package. A comparison table of all the options discussed here is shown in 3: Summary of Options. 2 Proposed Alternatives 2.1 Alternative 1 – Widespread Conversion to Zero-Emission Heating Appliances A simple solution is to provide a subsidy to the minimum number of houses required to achieve the 60-tonne particulate reduction. If all houses that received a subsidy converted to zero-emission appliances, the total number of houses requiring conversion is estimated at 5100. The cost for each conversion is estimated to be $4000, with the total cost depending on the level of subsidy required. Subsidy Level 50% 75% 100% Reduction Achieved 60 tonnes 60 tonnes 60 tonnes Cost/conversion Net Cost $/tonne $2000 $3000 $4000 $10,200,000 $15,300,000 $20,400,000 $170,000/tonne $255,000/tonne $340,000/tonne Although this solution works in theory, in reality it is not practical. It assumes that it would be possible to find 5100 households that all want to convert to zero-emission appliances (at the subsidy levels) which is unlikely, or that a strong regulatory approach is taken (convert or stop using). Solid-fuel burning is easy and efficient for many households, who would be unwilling to convert to electricity or gas which could increase their energy costs. The “one size fits all” manner of this option assumes that all households will need the same level of support. In reality, there would be households who could afford to pay more towards a new appliance, and others who couldn’t afford to pay anything. With Rotorua having a high deprivation index, many more households would require the 100% subsidy option, quickly pushing the price up and making this alternative more inefficient than the Action Plan package. 2.2 Alternative 2 – Widespread Conversion to Cleaner Heating Appliances A more realistic scenario is that some households will decide to convert to zero-emission appliances, and some to a more efficient solid-fuel burner. To achieve the 60-tonne reduction with a mix of cleaner heating appliances being installed, a total of 7650 houses would need to be converted – 3290 converting to woodburners, 1070 to pellet fires, and 3290 to zero-emission appliances. The cost of each conversion is estimated to be $4000. Subsidy Level 50% Reduction Achieved 60 tonnes Cost/conversion Total Cost $/tonne $2000 $15,300,000 $255,000 75% 100% 60 tonnes 60 tonnes $3000 $4000 $22,950,000 $30,600,000 $382,500 $510,000 This alternative is more realistic than Alternative 1 as it allows for individual preferences in heating methods. However, because of the increased number of houses requiring conversions, the cost also increases. Again, there would be some houses that could afford to pay more, while others would need the 100% subsidy. This alternative could be adapted (for example, a sliding scale of subsidy depending on household income) and made more efficient with some funds becoming recoverable. However, this type of subsidy/loan scheme is incorporated into the recommended package. 2.3 Alternative 3 – Range of Actions The third alternative is to use a similar combination of actions like those put in place by Nelson City Council and Environment Canterbury. This combination includes full subsidies for low-income households, loans on rates for middle-income households, subsidies for landlords, and the phasing-out of old solid-fuel burners. The reductions and costs of a similar selection of options being applied to Rotorua are shown in the table below. Option Restrict solid-fuel burners in new houses Restrict new solid-fuel burners in existing houses Prohibit the backyard burning of waste Phase out the use of open fires for heating in homes after September 1, 2013 Phase out existing solidfuel burners 15 years or older Total Reduction -0.5 tonnes -4.6 tonnes Included above 5 tonnes Included above 7 tonnes Included above (25 tonnes) Not included in total as the reduction achieved by this action is included in other options Offer subsidy to low- 23 tonnes income households Apply for EECA funding for Clean Heat Offer a loan on rates to middle-income households Apply for EECA funding for EnergyWise Project Offer incentives to landlords Promote burning dry Total Cost Recoverable Cost $200,000 Included above $10,000,000 2.7 tonnes $555,536 13 tonnes $7,700,000 $5,900,000 4 tonnes $1,600,000 $1,600,000 21 tonnes $4,700,000 wood 0.3 tonnes $100,000 Promote awareness community 0.5 tonnes $100,000 Summary Table Total Reduction 71.4 tonnes Total Cost Total Recoverable Net Cost $24,955,536 $7,500,000 $17,455,536 $/tonne $244,475 This combination of options has been selected by other councils to address the problems within their regions, but it is not necessarily the ideal solution for Rotorua. The main difference between this alternative and the recommended option below, is the 100% subsidy offered to low-income households. This significant subsidy pushes the costs up very quickly, and is a non-recoverable as with the loans schemes. Already, those councils who offer 100% subsidies are finding the scheme to be extremely expensive, and have changed the qualification criteria in an effort to cut costs. This alternative could be applied to Rotorua without the 100% subsidy option, which increases its efficiency to $150,420/tonne, although cuts the overall reduction to 48.3 tonnes. With a minimum of a 60-tonne reduction required to meet the standard, the reductions achieved by this combination of actions wouldn’t be sufficient. Although this particular mix of actions is inappropriate for Rotorua, a similar theory has been used to select the optimal mix as discussed below. 2.4 Recommended Option The recommended option uses a combination of methods and actions to achieve the minimum 60-tonne reduction, as shown below. Option Restrict solid-fuel burners in new houses Restrict new solid-fuel burners in existing houses Prohibit the backyard burning of waste Require burner upgrade at the point of property sale Phase out the use of open fires for heating in homes after September 1, 2013. Apply for EECA funding for Clean Heat Offer a loan on rates to middleincome households Offer a loan on property to households Apply for EECA funding for EnergyWise Project Provide a consultant for major industry Review resource consents for Total Reduction -0.5 tonnes Total Cost Recoverable Cost $200,000 -4.6 tonnes Included above Included above Included above Included above 5 tonnes 28.2 tonnes 7 tonnes 2.7 tonnes $555,536 13 tonnes $7,700,000 $5,900,000 11 tonnes $8,800,000 $6,800,000 4 tonnes $1,600,000 $1,600,000 0 $10,000 0 $200,000 major industry Promote dry wood burning Promote community awareness Summary Table Total Reduction 66.6 tonnes 0.3 tonnes 0.5 tonnes Total Cost $19,265,536 $100,000 $100,000 Total Recoverable $14,300,000 Net Cost $4,965,536 $/tonne $74,558 The actions that have been selected for inclusion in this recommended mix have all been adapted from actions that other councils already have in place. There is an advantage to this, as it is possible to tailor each option to ensure the best fit with the situation in Rotorua. This mix of actions is extremely efficient, achieving the required reductions for minimal cost. It contains some simple mechanisms (such as the point of sale rule) that results in large reductions. Although the initial financial outlay is significant, the majority of funds are recoverable. By comparison, the most efficient alternative is a 50% subsidy for 5100 houses to convert to zero-emission appliances only. As discussed, this alterative is impractical and inefficient, relying on every household wanting to convert to heat pumps or gas appliances, and on them being able to pay half the conversion costs. 3 Summary of Options Option Alternative 1 50% subsidy Alternative 1 75% subsidy Alternative 1 100% subsidy Alternative 2 50% subsidy Alternative 2 75% subsidy Alternative 2 100% subsidy Alternative 3 Range of Actions Recommended Option Total Reduction 60 tonnes Total Cost Total Net Cost Recoverable $10,200,000 0 $10,200,000 $/tonne $170,000 60 tonnes $15,300,000 0 $15,300,000 $255,000 60 tonnes $20,400,000 0 $20,400,000 $340,000 60 tonnes $15,300,000 0 $15,300,000 $255,000 60 tonnes $22,950,000 0 $22,950,000 $382,500 60 tonnes $30,600,000 0 $30,600,000 $510,000 71.4 tonnes $24,955,536 $7,500,000 $17,455,536 $244,475 66.5 tonnes $19,510,000 $14,300,000 $5,210,000 $74,558