Assessing the Wellbeing of the Central and North Coast of British Columbia Methodology for a regional human and ecological analysis as part of the development and implementation of an ecosystem-based approach to natural resource management on the Central and North Coast of British Columbia Robert Prescott-Allen, PADATA, 627 Aquarius Road, Victoria, British Columbia, V9C 4G5 Phone: 250 474 1904 Fax: 250 474 6976 E-mail: rpa@wellbeing-of-nations.ca As requested, this paper responds to four questions on ecological and human (“social, cultural, economic”) analysis for an ecosystem-based approach to natural resource management in the Central and North Coast region of BC. The proposed method of analysis is a wellbeing assessment of the region. Before answering the four questions, I outline here why a wellbeing assessment is proposed and aspects of the method of particular relevance to the questions. Why a wellbeing assessment of the Central and North Coast Wellbeing Assessment is the method of choice because it: 1. Gives equal weight to people and the ecosystem, considering them together but measuring them separately so that neither is submerged in the other. 2. Covers human and environmental conditions comprehensively yet cost-effectively through the selective measurement of the main features of human and ecosystem wellbeing. 3. Provides a systematic and transparent way of identifying these features and of choosing high quality indicators of each feature. 4. Combines the indicators into a Human Wellbeing Index, Ecosystem Wellbeing Index, and Wellbeing Index to give a clear picture of human conditions, environmental conditions, and sustainability of the region and areas within it (Figure 1). 5. Produces a clear picture of major human and environmental strengths and weaknesses of the region and areas within it (Figure 2). 6. Shows the environmental price of the standard of living by generating a Wellbeing/Stress Index (the ratio of human wellbeing to ecosystem stress). 7. Analyzes the main contributors to strengths and weaknesses, factors determining the Wellbeing/Stress Index, and key relationships such as between resource use and wealth, resource use and ecosystem wellbeing, and wealth and human wellbeing. 8. Can examine the most influential interactions between the region and the larger system of which it is part. 9. Exposes major knowledge gaps, highlighting priorities for informed decision making. 10. Can be improved over subsequent iterations as knowledge gaps are filled. At the same time, by employing a consistent set of indicators, later assessments can be compared with previous ones. Aspects of Wellbeing Assessment of special relevance to the four questions The structure of a wellbeing assessment Wellbeing Assessment gives equal weight to people and the ecosystem. Human wellbeing is essential because no rational person wants to perpetuate a low standard of living. Ecosystem wellbeing is essential because the ecosystem supports life and makes possible any standard of living. The concept is expressed in the metaphor of the Egg of Wellbeing (Figure 3). The ecosystem surrounds and 1 100 100 Good h k Good w 80 H U M A N 25 75 80 38 61 60 Medium W E L L B E I N G r Area A Fair Area C 40 H U M A N Area B 43 49 41 42 Poor 63 37 W E L L B E I N G Area E Area D 20 60 s c e Poor 20 Bad Bad Poor 20 Medium 40 Fair 60 0 Good 80 100 Bad Poor 20 ECOSYSTEM WELLBEING Figure 1. Group Barometer of Sustainability, showing the wellbeing of a hypothetical region and its constituent areas. The Human Wellbeing Index (HWI) is in the yolk of the egg; the Ecosystem Wellbeing Index (EWI) is in the white. The Wellbeing Index (WI) is the position of the egg—the point on the Barometer where the HWI and EWI intersect. Sustainability is the green square in the top right corner. Note that the Barometer clearly shows human and environmental conditions, their relationship to each other, and the distance to sustainability. Performance in different years can be plotted on the Barometer to show the direction of change. Medium 40 Fair 60 Good 80 100 ECOSYSTEM WELLBEING Figure 2. Individual Barometer of Sustainability, showing the structure of wellbeing of a hypothetical area. Yellow circles (vertical axis) are the points on the scale of the human dimensions (major components of the HWI): c = community; e = equity; h = health and population; k = knowledge; w = wealth. White circles (horizontal axis) are the points on the scale of the ecosystem dimensions (major components of the EWI): a = air; l = land; r = resource use; s = species and genes; w = water. Note that the Barometer clearly shows the area’s strengths and weaknesses: progress toward sustainability requires better performance on resource use and land, and then air, water, and equity. supports people much as the white of an egg surrounds and supports the yolk. Just as an egg is good only if both the yolk and white are good, so a society is well and sustainable only if both people and the ecosystem are well. To compare socioeconomic and environmental conditions—and keep the focus on improving both—the system is divided into two subsystems: people (human communities, economies, and artifacts); and ecosystem (ecological communities, processes, and resources). Interactions between the two are recorded under the receiving subsystem. Human stresses on the ecosystem (such as pollution and resource depletion), and benefits to it from conservation, are recorded under ecosystem. Benefits from the ecosystem to people (from the supply of resources to spiritual comfort), and the human toll of climatic and other environmental stresses, are recorded under people. Each subsystem is divided into five element groups or dimensions, providing a common framework for all assessments using the Wellbeing Assessment method (Figure 3). The framework allows users to select their 2 w 40 Bad 0 l Fair Medium Region 50 29 25 75 a SYSTEM people SUBSYSTEMS ecosystem Health and population Land Wealth Water Knowledge and culture DIMENSIONS Air Community Species and genes Equity Resource use Figure 3. The Egg of Wellbeing and the Wellbeing Assessment structure of system, subsystems, and dimensions (element groups). own indicators and produce assessments that are tailored to their conditions and needs yet broadly comparable with other wellbeing assessments. The dimensions are designed to group a wide range of topics into a few major categories that are roughly equal in scope and easily communicable to nonspecialists. They are specific enough to ensure that all assessments cover universally important aspects of human and ecosystem wellbeing, yet sufficiently broad and flexible to accommodate concerns that may matter to some societies but not all: any issue regarded as significant for wellbeing and sustainability has a place in one of them. The cycle of a wellbeing assessment Because it is impossible to measure human or ecosystem wellbeing directly, assessments must select indicators of their main features. Knowing the essential role of indicators, it is tempting to jump right in and choose them at once. However, it is seldom clear at the start of an assessment how well a given set of indicators represents a desirable combination of human and environmental conditions, what aspects are left out, how much the indicators overlap, or how they relate to each other. Since indicators require the collection and analysis of often large amounts of data, choosing the wrong ones can be a costly mistake. Consequently, it is necessary first to take apart the concepts of human and ecosystem wellbeing to identify the features that need to be measured—and then to unpack each feature to reveal aspects that are both representative and measurable. Wellbeing Assessment does this by going down the hierarchy of parts and aims in Figure 4, which provides a series of increasingly specific stepping stones from system and goal to indicators and performance criteria (standards of achievement). These steps ensure that the indicators are as representative as possible of the system as a whole and of people’s SYSTEM goals for themselves and their GOAL environment. Even so, each indicator 7. Analyze results 1. Define system and propose conveys information only about the and goal policies particular element or subelement it SUBSYSTEMS represents. To provide a picture of the SUBGOALS entire system and of progress toward the goal, the indicators need to be people ecosystem combined into indices. The steps taken to select the indicators are reversed to provide a logical and 2. Design 6. Combine and framework of transparent procedure for combining map indicators DIMENSIONS elements and them, going back up the hierarchy and indices (ELEMENT GROUPS) objectives from indicators to system. Step 1 is OBJECTIVE GROUPS described later in this section; and ELEMENTS steps 2, 3, 5, and 6 under questions 1 OBJECTIVES and 2. The process of a wellbeing assessment A wellbeing assessment is undertaken by a technical team in consultation with participants from communities, governments, and interest groups (such as environment groups and industry) in the area being assessed. If the main purpose of the assessment is to inform decision making in the area, participants should have a major say in what is assessed and in deciding questions of value. The assessment SUBELEMENTS SUBOBJECTIVES 5. Choose performance criteria INDICATORS PERFORMANCE CRITERIA 3. Choose indicators 4. Collect and process data Figure 4. Wellbeing Assessment cycle. Starting on the right and moving clockwise, indicators are selected going down the central hierarchy of parts (systemelementsindicators) and aims (goalobjectivesperformance criteria) and combined going up it. 3 must address the issues that matter to them most, although it may cover other matters as well. Accordingly, participants: Define the goal. Have a substantial say in decisions on the elements to be covered by the assessment, objectives for the elements, and performance criteria (standards of achievement) for the indicators. Have a substantial say in the findings of the assessment. Make their own policy proposals in light of the assessment. The technical team facilitates the involvement of participants and undertakes all the technical work of the assessment. Accordingly, it: Identifies the concerns of participants, drafts the goal, and produces an initial framework of elements and objectives. Consults participants on the goal, elements, and objectives, providing them with an opportunity to define the goal and revise the framework to ensure it includes their concerns and values. Reviews data sources and prepares base maps. Chooses indicators, in consultation with participants and specialists. Collects and processes data. Chooses performance criteria for the indicators, in consultation with specialists. Scores and maps indicators, combines indicators, and maps indices. Prepares a draft analysis of results and policy options. Consults participants on the analysis of results and policy options, providing them with an opportunity to review performance criteria and combining procedures, revise the findings, and make their own policy proposals. Revises the assessment in light of the consultation and prepares it for dissemination. If the main purpose of the assessment is comparative, there is less room for local variation in the choice of framework and indicator set. Consequently, the scope for consultation is not as great. Defining the system and goal The first step in a wellbeing assessment is to define the system and goal. The system consists of the people and ecosystem of the area to be assessed—in this case the Central and North Coast region of British Columbia. Defining it further involves deciding the units into which the region will be divided to show the extent to which human and environmental conditions vary within it. Ideally the units would be ecologically and socioeconomically coherent and would coincide with administrative divisions to make the assessment more relevant for decision making and to reduce data costs by using existing statistical areas. Since neither the ecological (ecoregional, biogeoclimatic, hydrological) nor the socioeconomic (regional districts, First Nations’ territories, local health areas, school districts, etc.) divisions of the Central and North Coast coincide with each other, a practical compromise would be to divide the region into six coastal basins (Table 1). These have a degree of ecological coherence and correspond roughly with regional district subdivisions (or, in two cases, electoral areas) and with all or much of the territories of groups of First Nations. Because the Central and North Coast is part of a larger system, the assessment should (as far as possible) also measure major flows or interactions between the region and the larger system. Such flows could include impacts on the global atmosphere, the maintenance of global biodiversity values, the export of environmental pressure through the import of goods from outside, and the supply of raw materials and jobs to the British Columbian economy. Goals for the people and ecosystem of the Central and North Coast provide the basis for deciding more specific objectives and performance criteria. The generic goal of Wellbeing Assessment is “high levels of human and ecosystem wellbeing”. Participants could adopt this goal or define their own, as 4 long as a high level of human wellbeing and a high level of ecosystem wellbeing are central features. What exactly these terms mean and how to measure them are defined by designing a framework of elements and objectives and choosing a set of indicators and performance criteria. Table 1. Suggested assessment units of the Central and North Coast region of British Columbia: coastal basins and the First Nations and administrative units that correspond to them. Coastal Basin Queen Charlotte Islands First Nations Haida: Old Masset, Skidegate Portland Inlet (includes Nass River and Portland Canal) Nisga’a: Gingolx, Gitwinksihlkw, Laxgalt’sap, New Aiyansh Northeast Hecate Strait (from Dundas Island to Banks Island; includes lower Skeena River) Southeast Hecate Strait (from the Estevan Group to Price Island; includes Kitimat Arm and Gardner Canal) Queen Charlotte Sound (from Milbanke Sound to Cape Caution; includes Dean and Burke Channels) North Queen Charlotte and Johnstone Straits (from Cape Caution to Toba Inlet) Tsimshian: Lax Kw’alaams (Port Simpson), Metlakatla, Kitkatla, Gitga’at (Hartley Bay) Haisla: Kitamaat Tsimshian (Kitasoo) and Xaixais: Klemtu Administrative Units Skeena–Queen Charlotte Regional District Subdivision B + Masset + Port Clements Kitimat-Stikine Regional District Electoral Area A (southern part of Subdivision A) + Stewart Skeena–Queen Charlotte Regional District Subdivision A + Prince Rupert + Port Edward Kitimat-Stikine Regional District Subdivision D + Kitimat Heiltsuk (Waglisla), Nuxalk (Bella Coola), Central Coast Regional District Oweekeno (Rivers Inlet) Kwakiutl: Gwa’Sala-Nakwaxda’xw, Da’naxda’xw First Nation, MamalilikullaQwe’Qwa’Sot’Em, Kwiakah Musgamagw Tsawataineuk: Tsawataineuk (Kingcome Inlet), Gwawaenuk Tribe (Hopetown), Kwicksutaineuk-ah-kwawah-mish (Simoon Sound, Gilford Island) Mount Waddington Regional District Subdivision A + ComoxStrathcona Regional District Electoral Area J (part of Subdivision A) Question 1. Ecological analysis “At a regional scale, what ecological analysis is required to support ecosystem-based management and planning and the development of options/scenarios to be used by subregional and local land use planning bodies?” Ecological analysis for ecosystem-based management and planning and the development of options and scenarios needs to address two questions: How well is the ecosystem? How are people affecting the ecosystem? Ecosystem wellbeing is a condition in which the ecosystem maintains its diversity and quality—and thus its capacity to support people and the rest of life—and its potential to adapt to change and provide a wide range of choices and opportunities for the future. Diversity includes the pattern (or type, size, and distribution) of ecological communities in the landscape and seascape; their species composition; the size and structure of component populations; and the connections and interactions among and within communities. Quality includes the capacity of ecological communities to maintain themselves through cycles of growth, maturity, death, and renewal; their productivity; and the chemical and physical integrity of soil, water, and the atmosphere. The opposite condition to ecosystem wellbeing is ecosystem stress, in which the ecosystem loses its diversity and quality and so becomes less able to support people and other life. Human activities are a dominant source of stress through conversion and occupation of ecosystems, resource extraction, translocation of species, emissions and waste disposal, and soil degradation. 5 Designing a framework of elements and objectives for ecosystem wellbeing To ensure full coverage of the diversity and quality of the ecosystem and the main pressures on them, Wellbeing Assessment divides ecosystem wellbeing into the five dimensions shown in Figure 3: land, water, air, species and genes, and resource use. Assessment participants decide what components of each dimension to measure by designing a framework of elements and objectives (step 2 in Figure 4). Then they decide how to measure each component by choosing indicators (step 3 in Figure 4). A well-designed framework enables people to: Identify the essential parts of the system. Avoid measuring the same part more than once. Avoid omitting an essential part. Highlight unavoidable gaps (so that everyone knows that a part is missing if there is no suitable indicator for it). Ensure that an appropriate weight or value is given to each part. Show the logic underlying the selection of parts and the weight given to each. Measure key relationships between groups of parts. Combine the indicators to provide measurements not just of the particular parts they represent but also of major groups of parts and of the system as a whole. Each dimension is divided into progressively more specific components until a measurable component or indicator can be identified (Figure 5). The components are organized hierarchically and logically. higher levels cover more of the system same level covers roughly equal parts of the system (with as little overlap as possible) Dimension (element group) Land Land diversity Elements Subelements Indicator groups Land quality Conversion Modification Protection Can be measure d Can be measure d Can be measure d e.g., % of each e.g., % of each e.g., % of each Indicators ecosystem type ecosystem type ecosystem type lower levels cover less of the system converted to nonforest or plantation in a natural or old growth state in protected areas Forest quality Soil quality Erosion and other physical deterioration Too broad: split Pollution and chemical or biological deterioration e.g., eroded area as % of converted and modified area Figure 5. Part of a framework for ecosystem wellbeing showing the hierarchy of parts from dimension to indicators (illustrative). Lower levels are narrower in scope and more specific than higher levels. Indicators (measurable components) are chosen as high up the hierarchy as possible: it is not always necessary to identify indicator groups or subelements. Gaps in coverage are highlighted by shading the part concerned (in this example, pollution and chemical or biological deterioration). 6 Components on the same level are roughly equal in scope and overlap as little as possible. For example, land diversity and land quality are intended to be equally important parts of land; conversion, modification, and protection to be equally important aspects of land diversity; and forest quality and soil quality to cover roughly equal aspects of land quality. Lower levels are narrower in scope and more specific than higher levels. The levels also form a series of means and ends. The level below is a means of achieving the level above. The level above is the end or purpose of the level below. For example: What we must measure (means): We measure ecosystem wellbeing, by measuring the condition of the land, which we do by measuring land diversity, which we do by measuring conversion, which we do by measuring the percentage of each ecosystem type converted to nonforest or plantation. Why we measure it (ends): We measure the percentage of each ecosystem type converted to nonforest or plantation to measure conversion, which we do to measure land diversity, which we do to measure the condition of the land, which we do to measure ecosystem wellbeing. Participants define objectives for each element and subelement to succinctly express its point, the main item or items of concern, and the level or type of performance that is sought. The objectives provide a logical bridge between the general goal for the system and specific performance criteria for the indicators. An illustrative set of elements, subelements, and their objectives is shown in Table 2 (next page). Note that participants in a Central and North Coast of BC assessment might define a different set. Choosing indicators of ecosystem wellbeing Since indicators cost money to measure, the ideal is to choose one high quality indicator for each element, subelement, or indicator group (depending on how far down the hierarchy one must go to identify a measurable component). A high quality indicator is representative, reliable, and feasible (Figure 6). An indicator is fully representative if it: Covers the most important parts of the component concerned. Shows trends over time and differences between places and groups of people. For example, the indicator percentage of each ecosystem type converted to nonforest or plantation fully represents the subelement Conversion, whereas the indicators percentage of each ecosystem type converted to agriculture, or percentage of each ecosystem type converted to built land, or percentage of each ecosystem type converted to Representative plantation do not because they represent Covers the most important parts of the component only one type of conversion. The indicator concerned. Shows trends over time and differences between places and groups of people. percentage of forest converted is less representative than percentage of each ecosystem type converted because it is less likely to show differences between one place and another. An indicator is likely to be reliable if it: Is accurate. Is measured in a standardized way with sound and consistent sampling procedures. Is well founded. Directly reflects the objective of the element or subelement concerned. Reliable Directly reflects how far the objective concerned is met. Is well founded, accurate, and measured in a standardized way with sound and consistent sampling procedures. Feasible Depends on data that are readily available or obtainable at reasonable cost. Figure 6. Basis for indicator selection. The ideal indicator is representative, reliable and feasible. Indicator selection is often a matter of balancing these qualities. 7 Table 2. Illustrative set of elements, subelements, and objectives for ecosystem dimensions. Dimension Element Land Land ecosystem diversity Subelement Conversion Modification Protection Land quality Forest quality Soil quality Water Inland waters Inland aquatic ecosystem diversity Inland water quality Water quantity Sea Marine ecosystem diversity Marine water quality Air Global atmosphere Local air quality Species and Plants genes Animals Resource use Other kingdoms Energy and materials Resource sectors Objective Conversion of native forests to nonforest or plantation forest* is minimized. A high proportion of each forest ecosystem type is maintained in an old growth state or restored to that state. Any modification of other forest areas maintains the full range of ecosystem types in a condition and pattern that will promote the persistence of the communities and habitats within them. At-risk ecosystems and large areas of each ecosystem type are protected. Forest productivity is maintained and logged forests fully regenerate. Soil degradation on modified or cultivated land is close to degradation rates on natural land. A high proportion of each aquatic ecosystem type is maintained in a natural state or restored to that state. Any modification of other water bodies maintains the full range of ecosystem types in a condition and pattern that will promote the persistence of the communities and habitats within them. Water pollutants are below levels that affect people or the ecosystem. The annual flow of water and seasonal and other periodic fluctuations in flow are close to background rates. A high proportion of each marine ecosystem type is maintained in a natural state or restored to that state. Any modification of other marine areas maintains the full range of ecosystem types in a condition and pattern that will promote the persistence of the communities and habitats within them. Water pollutants are below levels that affect people or the ecosystem. Pollutants that disrupt the chemical balance of the global atmosphere are eliminated or substantially reduced. Local air pollutants are below levels that affect people or the ecosystem. Flowering plants Other plants All native species and major genetic variants of key wild Vertebrates and domesticated species are maintained. Invertebrates Energy Materials Timber Fisheries Agriculture Mining, oil, and gas Hunting and gathering Energy and materials are used efficiently and without waste. Resource uses are within the carrying capacity of the ecosystem and extraction rates of renewable resources are within the rate of renewal of the resource concerned. * Plantation forest: forest that has been established artificially, usually consisting of stocks that are not indigenous to the site. Fungi, protists, and bacteria. 8 “Well founded” means that the indicator’s relationship to the component it represents is well established, scientifically valid, or is a defensible and testable hypothesis. For example, the indicator percentage of each ecosystem type in a natural or old growth state derives from the view that a number of species and associations are more likely to persist if an adequate part of the ecosystem remains in a natural state—a view that, if not established as scientifically valid, is at least a defensible hypothesis. An indicator directly reflects the objective of the element or subelement concerned if it measures its actual achievement rather than factors that could advance or impede its achievement. For example, the indicator eroded area as a percentage of converted and modified area measures the actual achievement of part of the objective, “Soil degradation on modified or cultivated land is close to degradation rates on natural land.” The indicator area of erosion prone land that is logged measures a factor that could impede achievement of the objective, and the indicator area and percentage of forest land systematically assessed for soil erosion hazard measures a factor that could advance it; but neither measures its direct achievement, and the area and severity of erosion could change regardless of either factor. An indicator is feasible if it depends on data that are readily available (as maps, statistics, or both) or obtainable at reasonable cost. “Reasonable cost” varies with the indicator. A highly representative and reliable indicator is likely to be cost-effective even if it is expensive. Unrepresentative or unreliable indicators are worthless, no matter how cheap. Potential indicators fall into various quality classes depending on how well they meet the criteria of representativeness, reliability, and feasibility. Suggestions about what to do with indicators in each class are given in Table 3. If no indicator that adequately meets these criteria can be found, then the component should be excluded from the assessment and its exclusion clearly noted. A practical procedure is to: a. Define a representative and reliable indicator for each component (element, subelement, or indicator group). More than one indicator may be necessary if one is insufficiently representative. b. Review data sources to determine the availability of data for each indicator. c. If data are not available for an indicator, identify one or more alternative indicators for which data are available (as determined by the data review). d. If data are not available for the alternatives and a component lacks an indicator, decide whether to develop a program to obtain the data or to exclude the component from the assessment. Appendix 1 presents an illustrative set of representative and reliable indicators of the ecosystem elements and subelements in Table 2. The feasibility of these indicators for the Central and North Coast of BC has not been determined. Table 3. What to do with potential indicators in each of five quality classes. Indicator quality class What to do with the indicator Indicator is representative, reliable, and feasible. Use it. Indicator is reliable and feasible but not representative. Try to find one or more additional indicators until the component is adequately represented. Indicator is representative and feasible but not reliable. Is it reliable enough to use if everyone is made aware of its flaws? If yes, use it and try to find one or more additional indicators that together could produce a more reliable picture. If no, drop it. Indicator is feasible but not representative or reliable. Drop it. Indicator is representative and reliable but not feasible. Can the component be represented reasonably by another indicator or set of indicators? If yes, drop it. If no, reexamine the indicator’s feasibility. It may be cost-effective after all. 9 Choosing performance criteria for ecosystem wellbeing Given the broad scope of ecosystem wellbeing, a large number of indicators is inevitable but presents an enormous communication problem. Every indicator sends a signal; the more indicators, the more signals—a perplexing cacophony of good, bad, and somewhere-in-between news. The best way to overcome this problem is to combine the indicators into indices. Assessments that do not combine their indicators into indices are extremely hard to interpret. Assessments that do can communicate their main findings instantly (as in Figure 1). By itself, each indicator conveys information only about the particular component it represents, but not about the system as a whole. When indicators are combined into indices, they provide a clear picture of the entire system, reveal key relationships between subsystems and between major components, and facilitate analysis of critical strengths and weaknesses (as in Figure 2). No information is lost, because the constituent indicators and underlying data are always there to be queried. The problem with indices is that a typical set of indicators is a mess of incompatible measurements: pollution in milligrams per litre, ecosystem conversion in hectares, species diversity in species numbers, genetic distance, and population change, and so on. Combining such different indicators mixes apples and oranges. To do this successfully requires converting the measurements to a common unit that does not distort their qualities as apples or oranges (“citrus units” would favour oranges, “pome units” would favour apples). The common unit may be a physical unit, money, or a performance score. Since many indicators are severely distorted when converted to a physical unit (such as weight, area or toxicity) or money, Wellbeing Assessment uses performance scores. Several scales for performance scores have been devised. Wellbeing Assessment uses the Barometer of Sustainability (Figures 1 and 2), because it is the only performance scale designed to measure human and ecosystem wellbeing together without submerging one in the other. Performance criteria enable indicator measurements to be given a score by converting them to the scale of the Barometer. They define the rate of exchange between the indicator and the scale—the level of performance that is worth a given number of points (Table 4). Table 4. The five bands of the Barometer of Sustainability. Performance criteria define the top of each band and the base of the scale. Band Good Fair Medium Poor Bad Base Points Range Top 100-81 100 80-61 80 60-41 60 40-21 40 20-1 20 0 0 Definition Desirable performance, objective fully met Acceptable performance, objective almost or barely met Neutral or transitional performance Undesirable performance Unacceptable performance Base of scale Performance criteria are chosen (step 5 in Figure 4) on the basis of the range of actual performance, the objective of the element or subelement that the indicator represents, and factors such as estimated sustainable rates, background rates, observed thresholds, standards or targets (international, national, provincial), expert opinion, the performance criteria of related indicators, and the judgement of participants. The range of performance (of units within the area being assessed, or of a wider provincial, national, or international sample) sets the base and the top of the scale. To prevent distortion of the scale, extremes of performance may be ignored; but to ensure that the scale is realistic, the distance from the base (0) to the top (100) must encompass at least 90% of the range of performance. In Figures 7 and 8, for example, the scale encompasses 91% of the range of performance of 180 countries (Prescott-Allen 2001). The objective of the element (or subelement) and the other factors help to define the bands of the scale. In Figure 7, the objective for species diversity is “all native wild species are maintained”, which 10 implies a reduction of extinctions to background rates. The background rate of extinction is estimated to be less than 0.01% of species per century. Based on the assumption that the percentage of species at risk of extinction is less than 100 times the actual extinction rate—or less than 1%—the top of the fair band has been set at 2%, meaning that performance is “good” only if the percentage of threatened species is 1.9% or less. In Figure 8, the objective for renewable resource use is “extraction rates are within the rate of renewal of the resource concerned”. In the case of logging, the rate of renewal is the net annual increment (NAI) of forest available for wood supply. To meet the objective, the cut rate must be no more than 100% of NAI. The top of the medium band has been set at 101% to ensure that performance is “fair” if the cut rate is 100-91% of NAI; and the top of the fair band has been set at 91% to ensure that performance is “good” if the cut rate is no more than 90%. These margins allow for fluctuations in increment and errors in estimating either the cut rate or NAI. Threatened Plant Species as % of Total Plant Species good fair medium poor bad 32 16 8 4 2 0 Objective: All native species are maintained. Band Top point At risk Basis on scale % Good 100 0 Top of international range is 0.7. Fair 80 2 Ensures that good band is well within background rate (assumed to be 1.0 or 100 times the estimated background extinction rate of 0.01% per century). Medium 60 4 Poor 40 8 Bad 20 16 Base 0 32 Encompasses performance of 91% of countries (bottom of international range is 47.0). Figure 7. Performance criteria for the indicator Threatened (at risk) plant species as a percentage of total plant species. Criteria are set by defining the performance levels that correspond to the top points of each band and the base of the scale. The top points and base are shown in the second column on the left of the table. The corresponding performance levels are shown in the column next to it and along the bottom of the graphic. The basis for choosing the criteria is shown in the column on the right. A nnual Cut as % of Net A nnual Increment (FA W S) good fair medium poor bad 121 111106 101 91 16 Objective: Extraction rates of renewable resources are within the rate of renewal of the resource concerned. Band Top point Cut % Basis on scale of NAI Good 100 16 Encompasses performance of 91% of countries (top of international range is 0.0) Fair 80 91 Ensures that good band is well within renewable rate (cut equal to or less than 90% of NAI) Medium 60 101 Ensures that fair band is within renewable rate (cut 100-91% of NAI) Poor 40 106 Bad 20 111 Base 0 121 Bottom of international range is 416.7. Figure 8. Performance criteria for the indicator Annual cut as a percentage of net annual increment (NAI) of forest available for wood supply (FAWS). Criteria are set by defining the performance levels that correspond to the top points of each band and the base of the scale. The top points and base are shown in the second column on the left of the table. The corresponding performance levels are shown in the column next to it and along the bottom of the graphic. The basis for choosing the criteria is shown in the column on the right. 11 Combining indicators into an Ecosystem Wellbeing Index Indicator measurements are given scores on the basis of the performance criteria. Once the indicators have been given scores, they can be combined back up the hierarchy from indicator to subsystem (step 6 in Figure 4). Indicator scores are combined into a subelement score, subelement scores into an element index, element indices into a dimension index, and dimension indices into a subsystem index—in this case, the Ecosystem Wellbeing Index (EWI). Components (indicators, indicator groups, subelements, or elements) are combined in one of three ways: Unweighted average. Used mainly when the components are judged to be roughly equal in importance and in the quality and coverage of their indicators. Strong performance in all components is desirable, and weak performance in any of them undesirable, but not to the extent that bad performance in one component overrides better performance in the others. In The Wellbeing of Nations (Prescott-Allen 2001), for example, the threatened plants and threatened animals indicators were combined by taking the unweighted average. Weighted average. Used to combine components that are considered to be unequal in importance or in the quality and coverage of the indicators. The weight reflects the difference in importance or in quality and coverage. In The Wellbeing of Nations, wild diversity was given twice the weight of domesticated diversity because the loss of a wild species is more significant than the loss of a livestock breed or crop variety. Veto (lower score overrides higher score). Used mainly under two circumstances. First, when good performance is essential in both components of a pair. Sometimes success in one component may be at the expense of failure in the other, and the veto ensures that only success in both is rewarded: for example, agricultural productivity and agricultural self-reliance. Sometimes the components are halves of a whole, and good performance in one alone does not get the job done: for example, land diversity and land quality. Second, when inferior performance in one component outweighs superior performance (no matter how good) in all of the others. Examples are air and water pollutants: dangerous levels of one substance are not made less dangerous by safe levels of the others. The EWI is the unweighted average of either four ecosystem dimensions (land, water, air, and species and genes) or five (these four plus resource use). To prevent a high score for resource use from offsetting a poor state of the environment, resource use is included in the EWI only when it does not raise the index. Question 2. Human (social/cultural/economic) analysis “At a regional scale, what social/cultural/economic analysis is required to support ecosystem-based management and planning and the development of options/scenarios to be used by subregional and local land use planning bodies?” Human analysis for ecosystem-based management and planning and the development of options and scenarios needs to address two questions: How well are people? Is their wellbeing fairly shared? Human wellbeing is a condition in which all members of society are able to determine and meet their needs and have a large range of choices and opportunities to fulfill their potential. Essential features include a long and healthy life, a strong economy, and an effective system of developing and transmitting knowledge. Others are self-respect, opportunities for being creative and productive, security against crime and violence, guaranteed human rights, and political, economic, and social freedom. Since health, wealth, knowledge, freedom, peace, and other goods are widely valued, it is right that they be widely shared. The cost of achieving them should also be fairly shared. A society is not well if 12 only a few groups in it enjoy power, privilege, and high levels of the opportunities and benefits that make up wellbeing, while others are weak, disadvantaged, and poor. Hence an assessment should show the distribution of human wellbeing as well as its level. Designing a framework of elements and objectives for human wellbeing To ensure that as many as possible of the main features are covered, Wellbeing Assessment divides human wellbeing into the five dimensions shown in Figure 3: health and population, wealth, knowledge and culture, community, and equity. As with ecosystem wellbeing, assessment participants decide what components of each dimension to measure by designing a framework of elements and objectives (step 2 in Figure 4). An illustrative set of elements, subelements, and their objectives is shown in Table 5. Note that participants in a Central and North Coast of BC assessment might define a different set. Table 5. Illustrative set of elements, subelements, and objectives for human dimensions. Dimension Element Health and Health population Population Wealth Individual and corporate wealth Societal wealth Knowledge Knowledge and culture Culture Community Freedom and governance Peace, order, and solidarity Equity Gender equality Group equity Subelement Objective People enjoy long lives in good health. Populations are stable, with a balance of age groups, and within the bounds of human and natural resources. Needs Individuals and households meet their needs Income and obtain the income to secure their material wellbeing. Business Businesses are profitable and competitive. Capital and The society has the resources to promote enterprise and productivity maintain prosperity, Inflation and providing a stable climate for investment and decent employment livelihoods, Debt while living within its means. State of People have the knowledge to innovate and cope with knowledge change, live well and sustainably, and fulfill their potential. Education Education levels are high and the society has welldeveloped and widely shared systems for transmitting knowledge formally through education Communication and informally through communication. Belief Belief systems meet spiritual needs and promote human and ecosystem wellbeing. Spirit and nature Links between spirit and nature are strengthened and maintained. Expression Creative expression flourishes. Freedom The rights of all members of society are fully respected, and individuals are free to choose how decisions are made and who should make them. Governance Decision-making bodies are open, clean, and effective. Law Communities and citizens respect the rule of law, Crime protect their members from crime and violence, Peace coexist peacefully, Solidarity and provide a helping hand to those who need it. Benefits and burdens are shared equally between males and females and equitably among societal groups. Choosing indicators and performance criteria of human wellbeing Indicators and performance criteria (steps 3 and 5 in Figure 4) are chosen for human wellbeing in the same way as for ecosystem wellbeing. Appendix 2 presents an illustrative set of representative and reliable indicators of the human elements and subelements in Table 5. The feasibility of these indicators for the Central and North Coast of BC has not been determined. 13 Combining indicators into a Human Wellbeing Index As with ecosystem wellbeing, indicator measurements are given scores on the basis of the performance criteria. Once the indicators have been given scores, they are combined back up the hierarchy from indicator to subsystem (step 6 in Figure 4). Indicator scores are combined into a subelement score, subelement scores into an element index, element indices into a dimension index, and dimension indices into a subsystem index—in this case, the Human Wellbeing Index (HWI). The HWI is the unweighted average of either four human dimensions (health and population, wealth, knowledge and culture, and community) or five (these four plus equity). To prevent a high score for equity from offsetting poor human conditions, equity is included in the HWI only when it does not raise the index. Question 3. Integrating human (social, cultural, economic) and ecological analyses “At a regional scale, how would you approach integrating social, cultural, economic, and ecological analyses as part of an ecosystem-based management approach to planning and decision making useful for the development of options/scenarios to be used by subregional and local land use planning bodies?” Wellbeing assessments are designed to integrate human and ecological analyses. Separation of a regional system into two equal subsystems of people (human communities, economies, and artifacts) and ecosystem (ecological communities, processes, and resources) enables each to be measured separately while being considered together. The separation allows interactions between people and the ecosystem to be clearly revealed and facilitates their analysis. Analysis starts with two integrated indices: The Wellbeing Index (WI) is the point on the Barometer of Sustainability where the HWI and EWI intersect. It shows graphically how close a society is to combining high levels of human and ecosystem wellbeing and hence how close it is to sustainability (Figures 1 and 9). The Wellbeing/Stress Index (WSI) is the ratio of human wellbeing to ecosystem stress (the 100 opposite of ecosystem wellbeing). It shows how much development benefit a society obtains for Good the amount of harm it does to the environment. 81 WSI 4.26 81 80 Figure 9 portrays five societies with WSIs WSI 1.00 30 70 ranging from a sustainable 4.26 (human Fair 70 70 WSI 2.33 H U wellbeing more than four times the level of M ecosystem stress) to a close to sustainable 2.33 A 60 (human wellbeing more than twice the level of N Medium W ecosystem stress) to a close to unsustainable E 40 L 1.00 (equal levels of human wellbeing and L 30 70 ecosystem stress) to a highly unsustainable 0.43 B Poor 30 WSI 0.43 30 WSI 1.00 E (human wellbeing less than half the level of I 20 N ecosystem stress). G These indices can then be broken into their major components to identify the factors most responsible for current performance. The Barometer of Sustainability shows instantly what dimensions of human and ecosystem wellbeing most need attention (Figure 2). These dimensions can be examined in detail to determine critical features and their relationships with other socioeconomic and environmental factors. Then on the basis of this analysis, subregional and local land use planning bodies can develop practical policy options. 14 Bad 0 Bad Poor 20 Medium 40 Fair 60 Good 80 100 ECOSYSTEM WELLBEING Figure 9. Barometer of Sustainability showing the Wellbeing/Stress Index (WSI) of five imaginary societies. The WSI is the ratio of human wellbeing to ecosystem stress, derived by subtracting the EWI from 100 to obtain an Ecosystem Stress Index (ESI) and then dividing the HWI by the ESI. Underlying the Wellbeing/Stress Index are the relationships between resource use and wealth, resource use and ecosystem wellbeing, and wealth and human wellbeing. It is obviously desirable (a) to maximize the income obtained per unit of ecosystem stress (or minimize the ecosystem stress imposed per unit of income) and (b) to maximize the amount of human wellbeing obtained per unit of income. The scope and structure of a wellbeing assessment make it relatively easy to explore the economic activities and their locations most likely to accomplish (a) and the changes in spending policies, delivery of services, and so on, necessary for (b). Question 4. Ensuring integration does not constrain enquiry, analysis, or scenario development “How would you ensure that the integration of the social/cultural/economic and ecological analyses does not constrain enquiry, analysis, or scenario development?” All enquiries and analyses are constrained to some extent by mental models and points of view. Wellbeing Assessment is no exception. A conscious constraint is the equal treatment of people and the ecosystem. The Barometer of Sustainability is designed to prevent a high score for human wellbeing from offsetting a low score for ecosystem wellbeing, or vice versa. This accords with the view that human and ecosystem wellbeing are equally important and sustainability requires high levels of both. If the method were not constrained in this way, integration might understate human concerns (as in conventional environmental analysis) or understate environmental concerns (as in conventional development analysis and in sustainability analysis that uses the “three capital” or “three-legged stool” model of environment–economy–society, which implicitly reduces the weight of the environment to a third). Because Wellbeing Assessment promotes high levels of both human and ecosystem wellbeing (rather than one more than the other), it guards against another danger: the unconscious downplaying of either human or environmental values that are less well documented statistically than the economy. All human and ecosystem dimensions must be measured comprehensively. If data gaps prevent coverage of parts of a dimension, the missing components are highlighted and their absence is taken into account in the analysis. Finally, because indicators of human and ecosystem wellbeing are chosen systematically and separately—in separate frameworks of elements and objectives—they remain distinctly and exclusively either human or ecological indicators throughout the analysis. This prevents integration from lapsing into absorption (the confounding of socioeconomic and environmental factors), enabling it instead to distinguish each option’s positive and negative effects on people and on the ecosystem. Reference Prescott-Allen, Robert. 2001. The Wellbeing of Nations: a country-by-country index of quality of life and the environment. Island Press, Washington, DC, and International Development Research Centre, Ottawa. 15