How will climate change affect South Africa?
The impacts of climate change in South Africa
Global warming will have global impacts[1] but action is more readily achieved at a
national level. So, what impacts are expected for South Africa?
Global warming is projected to cause the sea-level to rise by 90—880 mm. This will be
mainly the result of thermal expansion of water but may also be affected by melting ice.[2]
The possible impacts on the shoreline include increased erosion, reduced protection from
extreme events, greater tidal reach, raising the groundwater table near the coast and salt
water intrusion into coastal aquifers.[2, 3, 4] Estuaries, inlets and wetlands are most
vulnerable.[2] Durban would be affected by storms when/if the rise reaches 200 mm
while a 500 mm rise would see serious erosion of Durban’s beaches. Woodbridge Island
(Cape Town) would be affected by storm flood damage and possibly erosion when/if the
rise reaches 500 mm.[2] In the Southern Cape, private property is the most vulnerable
while in KwaZulu Natal, commercial property is the most vulnerable.[2, 3] The insurance
industry will be affected by impacts on private property. It is possible that developers
will be unable to insure/reinsure developments that are at risk.[3]
Modelling suggests that global warming will result in a decrease in precipitation of about
10% starting in the west of the country and moving east with time. Mean annual rainfall
is projected to decrease by 5—10%. Groundwater recharge is likely to be affected but
not in a predictable pattern.[5] River flow is also expected to drop in the western half of
the country. The mouth behaviour of most estuaries is likely to change. Many
permanently open estuary mouths could become temporarily open systems.[6] These
effects will impact on water use in all sectors. In the Western Cape Province, most of the
available water is committed – some of the ecological reserve is even being used in
places. Improvement in the efficiency of water use will be a necessity as the province
gets drier.[4]
The present understanding of the marine systems does not allow predictions of the
physical impacts of global warming. It is, however, postulated that catch reductions of
35% and 18% are possible by 2050 in estuarine fisheries and inshore fisheries
respectively.[6]
Livestock may benefit from climate change[7] but crops are likely to be negatively
impacted.[8] The area suitable for plantation forestry is likely to be reduced but since the
area under existing plantations is much smaller than the area suitable this is not likely to
be a problem. The impacts on plantation forestry will depend on the locality and are
uncertain.[9]
Models used to assess the effect of global warming on the biomes of South Africa show
that the area of all the biomes will be reduced from the west and north with a
concomittent loss of species being expected.[4, 6] According to the models, by 2050 the
Forest and Thicket Biomes will have disappeared and the Succulent Karoo Biome will be
nearly gone. It is expected that the ‘emptied’ areas will have species poor, arid adapted
vegetation.[6]
At a species level, global warming is expected to result in the following effects if no
action is taken. Species will go extinct. Surviving species may be expected to
experience alterations in their ranges in the form of expansions, reductions and shifts. A
few species may remain relatively unaffected by global warming.[10, 11]
Among the species projected to experience range expansions are the Plasmodium species
responsible for malaria and the Schistosoma species responsible for Bilharzia (=
Schistosomiasis).[5, 12, 13] Malaria impacts take the form of work days lost due to illness
and premature death.[12] Bilhazia has a low mortality rate but significantly reduces
productivity[14] – the truth of this statement I can personally attest. DDT is once again
being used to control the vectors of malaria[13] so further health impacts may be expected.
Impacts from malaria are already expected to be great in 2010.[12]
The projected changes in biodiversity are hugely important for conservation planning.[10, 11] In the Western Cape, the planned megareserves had very little impact on the
status of species of the Proteaceae after climate change. Only one species benefited
slightly from the megareserves.[6] The Kruger National Park may lose as much as 66% of
its animal species and with them, much of its value for tourism.[6, 11] Erasmus et al.[11]
suggest that indicator species be identified for climate change. Williams et al.[15] suggest
identifying and protecting corridors for dispersal. Habitat fragmentation is a
complicating factor in conservation planning for climate change.[16]
The potential loss of tourism is the main impact likely to be felt in the market economy.
It is estimated that as much as 3% of GDP could be lost as a result of the global warming
– particularly through impacts on tourism. A number of major impacts (e.g. health and
subsistence forest utilization) are categorized as non-market impacts as the national
accounts do not show them directly.[6, 17] The effects of the impacts of global warming
may be summarized as follows: resource rich groups are not vulnerable but resource
poor groups are vulnerable.[5]
Most of the studies looking at the effects of global warming do not consider
mitigation[3, 10, 11, 17] but some action will be taken.[17] Kiker[5] suggests that actions to
adapt to climate change need to be coordinated to minimise the cost and ensure that
uncoordinated action does not increase the vulnerability of the region. Turpie et al.[17]
note that mitigation and/or adaptation would be very difficult and/or costly for some of
the impacts. In some instances mitigation may be impossible, e.g. it is impossible to
mitigate impacts on existence values.[17]
The projected impacts of global warming will be exacerbated by humanity in 2 ways:
population growth[10, 11] and environmental refugees.[18] The population growth rate in
South Africa was 2.2% in 1999.[13] The healthy economy[13] makes South Africa an
attractive destination for displaced people.
In my opinion, coordinated reactions from government are unlikely because (1) projected
impacts are in the future (even 2010) and many of the projections are for 2050 or 2100 –
by which time the present politicians will be ancient (2050) or dead (2100) and (2) the
predictions all involve uncertainty - as the Bush Administration has demonstrated,
uncertainty can be used to avoid taking action.[19]
To conclude, South Africa will be heavily impacted by global warming but plans are
being made to reduce the impacts on biodiversity. Hopefully, such plans will be
successfully implemented.
References
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Marquis M, Avery KB, Tignor M, Miller HL, editors. Climate Change 2007: The
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and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. Available from:
http://planet.uwc.ac.za/nisl/climate_change/course_documents/AR4WG1_Pub_SPM.pdf.
2. Winkler H. 2002. Property damage from sea-level rise. In: Turpie, J, Winkler H,
Spalding-Fecher R, Midgley G, editors. Economic Impacts of Climate Change in South
Africa: a Preliminary Analysis of Unmitigated Damage Costs. Cape Town: Southern
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3. Hughes P, Brundrit GB. 1992. An index to assess South Africa’s vulnerability to sealevel rise. South African Journal of Science 88 (6): 308—311.
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Niekerk L, Tadross M, Van Wilgen BW, Kgope B, Morant PD, Scholes RJ, Forsyth GG.
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for the Vulnerability and Adaptation section. Pretoria: South African Department of
Environmental Affairs and Tourism. Available from:
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Midgley G, editors. Economic Impacts of Climate Change in South Africa: a Preliminary
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Midgley G, editors. Economic Impacts of Climate Change in South Africa: a Preliminary
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DC, Rebelo AG, Rouget M, Thuiller W. 2005. Potential impacts of future land use and
climate change on the Red List status of the Proteaceae in the Cape Floristic Region,
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Vulnerability of South African Animal taxa to Climate Change. Global Change Biology
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13. Government of South Africa. 2000. South Africa: Initial National Communication
under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Pretoria: South
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Minimum-Dispersal Corridors for the Cape Proteaceae. Conservation Biology 19 (4):
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19. Knight R. 2007. Global Warming, Warning or Waring: Bush vs Blair issue
[Internet]. Eco- and Geo-informatics blog, Biodiversity and Conservation Biology
Department, University of the Western Cape; Updated 2007 May 10 [cited 2007 Ju1. 11].
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