ANNEXES
ANNEX 1: LIST OF BASELINE STUDIES AND REPORTS ON INITIATIVES TO REDUCE
GLOF RISKS
Ageta, Y., Iwata, S. (1999) The Assessment of Glacier Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan, report of
Japan–Bhutan Joint Research 1998. Japan/Bhutan: Institute of Hydrospheric-Atmospheric Sciences of
Nagoya University, Department of Geography of Tokyo Metropolitan University, and the Geological
Survey of Bhutan
Ageta, Y., Iwata, S., Yabuki, H., Naito, N., Sakai, A., Narama, C and Karma (2000) Expansion of glacier
lakes in recent decades in the Bhutan Himalayas, Debris covered glaciers (proceedings of a workshop
held at Seattle, Washington, USA, September 2000), IAHS Publication no. 264, pp. 165-175.
Ageta, Y., Naito, N., Nakawo, M., Fujita, K., Shakar, K., Pokhrel, A.P., and Wangda, D., (2001) Study
project on the recent rapid shrinkage of summer accumulation type glaciers in the Himalayas, 1997-1999.
Bulletin of Glaciological Research, Vol 18, pp. 45-49.
Bajracharya, S.R & Mool, P.K., (2005) Growth of hazardous glacial lakes in Nepal. Proceedings of the
JICA regional seminar on natural disaster mitigation and issues on technology transfer in South and
Southeast Asia, September 30 to 13th October 2004, Department of Geology, Tri-Chandra Campus,
Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal, pp.133-148.
Brauner, M., D. Leber, H. Häusler, P. Agner, T. Payer, and Dorji Wangda (2003) Final Report of the
Glacier Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) Mitigation Project (2002-2003) Flood routing, hazard zonation and
early warning system of the Pho Chhu watershed downstream to Punakha/Wangdi Phodrang (Bhutan).
Department of Geological Sciences, University of Vienna, Austria; and Department of Geology and
Mines, Thimphu, Bhutan, May 2003.
Brauner, M., D. Leber, H. Häusler (2003) Glacier Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) Mitigation Project,
Lunana, Bhutan: Technical mitigation measures – Thorthormi outlet. Department of Geological Sciences,
University of Vienna, Austria; and Department of Geology and Mines, Thimphu, Bhutan, October 2003.
Department of Energy (2004) The 2003-2022 Power System Master Plan. Chapter 10
DGM (2005) A brief report on the topographical and geomorphological survey on the glaciers and glacial
lakes in Lunana Complex (as part of field program on time series monitoring of glaciers and glacial lakes
in the northern frontiers of Bhutan.
DGM, (2007) Glacial Lake Outburst Floods and Associated Hazards, Mitigation Measures Adaptation to
Debris Flows in the Bhutan Himalaya: With an example of Pho Chu Basin. Thimphu, Bhutan:
Department of Geology and Mines. Unpublished report.
Dorji, Y. (1996a) Glaciers and Glacial Lakes feeding Pho Chu and the risk associated with these lakes,
Geological Survey of Bhutan, 6 pgs
Dorji, Y. (1996b) Lunana Mitigatory Project: A preliminary assessment of the risk of flood. Department
of Geology and Mines, Bhutan.
(December 2007) Annexes
68
Gansser, A (1970) Lunana- the Peaks, Glaciers and Lakes of Northern Bhutan in The Mountain World,
1968/69, pp. 117-131.
Gansser, A (1983) Geology of the Bhutan Himalayas, Basel: Birkhäuser Verlag
Geological Survey of Bhutan (1994) Preliminary Report on the Investigation of Glacial Lakes at Pho
Chhu Sources and the Assessment of Flood Affected Areas in Lunana, Geological Survey of Bhutan.
Geological Survey of Bhutan (1999) Glaciers and Glacier Lakes in Bhutan, Vol. 1 and 2. Thimphu:
Geological Survey of Bhutan.
Geological Survey of India and Geological Survey of Bhutan (1986) Lunana lake expedition-1986, field
report of Geological Survey of India, Bhutan Unit.
Häusler, H. and D. Leber (1998) Final Report of Raphstreng Tsho Outburst Flood Mitigatory Project
(Lunana, Northwestern Bhutan): Phase I. Institute of Geology, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Häusler, H. et al (2000) Final Report of Raphstreng Tsho Outburst Flood Mitigatory Project (Lunana,
Northwestern Bhutan): Phase II. Institute of Geology, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
ICIMOD and UNEP (2001) Inventory of Glaciers, Glacial Lakes and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods:
Monitoring and early warning systems in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region – Bhutan. Kathmandu,
Nepal: ICIMOD
IPCC (2001) Summary for Policymakers: A Report of Working Group 1 of the Inter-governmental Panel
on Climate Change, Geneva: IPCC
IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Geneva: IPCC
Iwata, S., Y. Ageta, N. Naito, A. Sakai, C. Narama, and Karma (2002) Glacial Lakes and Their Outburst
Flood Assessment in the Bhutan Himalaya. Global Environmental Research, Vol. 6, No.1, pp. 3-17.
Karma, Thapa, T., and Galley, K.S (1999) Preliminary report on Chubda Tso in the headwaters of
Chamkhar Chu, Bumthang, Engineering Geology & Glaciology Wing, Geological Survey of Bhutan
(unpublished report), 11 pgs.
Karma, Yutaka Ageta, Nozomu Naito, Shuji Iwata and Hironori Yabuki (2003) Glacier distribution in the
Himalayas and glacier shrinkage from 1963 to 1993 in the Bhutan Himalayas, Bulletin of Glaciological
Research, Vol. 20, pp. 29-40.
Karma (1999) Report on Chubda Tsho. Geological Survey of Bhutan.
Karma (2005) Bhutan Himalayas: The Little Third Polar Region, Bhutan Geology Newsletter, Sl. No. 8,
Department of Geology and Mines, Ministry of Economic Affairs, Royal Government of Bhutan, 6 pgs.
Komori, J., Gurung, D.R., Iwata, S and Yabuki, H. (2004) Variation and lake expansion of Chubda
glacier, Bhutan Himalayas, during the last 35 years, Bulletin of Glaciological Research, Vol. 21, pp. 4955.
Leber, D., H. Häusler, M. Brauner, and Dorji Wangda (2002) Final Report of the Glacier Lake Outburst
Flood (GLOF) Mitigation Project: Pho Chhu – Eastern Branch (Thanza–Lhedi ; 2000-2002) Lunana,
(December 2007) Annexes
69
Bhutan. Institute of Geology, University of Vienna, Austria; and Department of Geology and Mines,
Thimphu, Bhutan, August 2002. DGM library no. GA 709
Mool, P.K., Wangda,D., Bajracharya,S.R., Kuenzang, K.,Gurung, D.R., Joshi, S.J.(2001) Inventory of
Glaciers, Glacial Lakes and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods, Monitoring and Early Warning System in the
Hindu Kush- Himalayan Region, Bhutan, 227pp.
Munich Re Group (2006) Topics Geo—Annual review: Natural Catastrophes 2005, Munich: Munich Re
Group
Naito, N., D. Nishikawa and Y, Ageta (2000) Research report on glaciers, glacier lakes and climate in
Bhutan Himalayas, 1999. Preprints of the 2000 conference, Japanese Society of Snow and Ice, 88 pgs.
NEC (1996) A brief report on the expedition to Roduphu and Sichhe glacial lakes in the headwaters of
Mo Chhu, Gasa Dzongkhag. National Environment Commission, Bhutan.
Norbu, P., K. Phuntsho, and K. Dorji (1994) Aerial Reconnaissance along Phochu (Eastern Branch) to
pinpoint the source of Punakha flash flood of 7 October 1994. RGOB.
RGOB and Water and Power Consultancy Services (India) Limited (1997) Raphstreng Lake, Lunana,
Bhutan: Report on flood mitigatory measures (Phase 1 – 1996). Report of an Indo-Bhutanese expedition
to Lunana following the 1994 GLOF, prepared by Water and Power Consultancy Services (India)
Limited, A Government of India Undertaking, Delhi, India, January 1997.
Skuk, S. (2003) Proposal: Glacial Lake Outbursts in the Himalaya – Bhutan: Safety measures for the
population of Punakha and downstream (2003-2004). Assessment for the Development Cooperation
Project: Autonomous Province Bozen–Bhutan, Autonomous Province Bozen, Italy, and Department of
Geology and Mines, Bhutan. DGM library no. GA 738
Watanabe, T. and D. Rothacher (1994) The 1994 Lugge Tsho Glacial Lake Outburst Flood, Bhutan
Himalaya, in Mountain Research and Development, Vol. 16(1), pp. 77-81.
WWF (2005) An Overview of Glacier, Glacier Retreat and Subsequent impact in Nepal, China and India,
WWF Nepal Program, 2005
(December 2007) Annexes
70
ANNEX 2: HAZARD ZONATION MAPS AND VULNERABILITY OF PUNAKHA-WANGDI
VALLEY COMMUNITIES1
These hazard zonation maps were produced under co-financing from the Austrian Government. Results
are taken from the following report: Brauner, M., D. Leber, H. Häusler, P. Agner, T. Payer, and Dorji
Wangda (2003) Final Report of the Glacier Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) Mitigation Project (2002-2003)
Flood routing, hazard zonation and early warning system of the Pho Chhu watershed downstream to
Punakha/Wangdi Phodrang (Bhutan). Department of Geological Sciences, University of Vienna, Austria;
and Department of Geology and Mines, Thimphu, Bhutan, May 2003.
The land use restrictions according to hazard zonation are summarized below:

Red Zone: Individuals are endangered inside and outside of buildings and buildings will be
completely flooded. Therefore, new buildings must not be planned and existing buildings must be
relocated or technically secured. Agricultural land should not be cultivated.

Yellow Zone: Individuals are endangered only outside of buildings, which will be partially
flooded. Therefore, new buildings must not be planned and existing buildings must be reinforced.
Agricultural land can be used but people should know evacuation path.

Blue Zone: Individuals are slightly endangered only outside of buildings, which may be partially
flooded. Therefore, new buildings should not be planned and existing buildings should be
reinforced. Agricultural land can be used but people should know evacuation path.
1
The hazard zonation map and vulnerability assessment results of Punakha-Wangdi Valley from Khuruthang to
Wangdi will be finalized in December.
(December 2007) Annexes
71
Hazard Zonation Map of Thamji Community School to Samdingkha
Hazard Zonation Map of Samdingkha to Punakha Mill
(December 2007) Annexes
72
Hazard Zonation Map of Punakha Mill to Khuruthang
Based on the information above and the hazard zonation maps of Punakha-Wangdi Valley produced
during the PPG phase, DGM, DMD, and the local Dzongkhag administrations have identified
communities as highly vulnerable to GLOFs in the Pho Chhu river basin.
The GLOF-vulnerable population between Khuruthang and Wangdi is approximately 1,335 according to
the latest vulnerability assessment conducted by DGM during the PPG phase. Between Thamji
(Wolathang) school and Punakha are approximately 30 houses, the Thamji Community School, and a
hotel in Khuru, which lie in high-risk areas. In addition, 23 houses are located in moderate risk yellow
zones that require reinforcement. Households living in the target communities will be included in the
proposed early warning system, but the entire population of the districts would benefit from the system
through reduced socio-economic impacts and climate-resilient DRM initiatives. The population of
Punakha District is 17,715 people living in 3,387 households, while the population of Wangdi District is
31,135 people living in 6,227 households.2
The main agricultural products of Punakha are rice, wheat, maize, a variety of fruits, chilies, radish,
cabbages, and other vegetables. Other sectors such as tourism are strong in Punakha, which has a rich
history as the former capital of Bhutan and one of the most important dzongs in the country. Wetlands
dominate the agricultural land use in Wangdi District. Paddy is grown extensively with a double
cropping. Potatoes are a cash crop, and maize, wheat, barley, buckwheat, chilies, mustard, oranges,
apples, and ginger are also grown.
2
National Statistics Bureau, 2005. Statistical Yearbook of Bhutan 2005.
(December 2007) Annexes
73
ANNEX 3: HAZARD ZONATION MAPS OF CHAMKHAR VALLEY
These hazard zonation maps were produced during the PPG phase. The full results are available in the
report “Hazard Zonation and Vulnerability Mapping for the Chamkhar Valley” by the Department of
Geology and Mines, Ministry of Economic Affairs, Thimphu, Bhutan, August 2007.
Study area in the Chamkhar Valley
To assess the impact of future GLOF events in the Chamkhar valley, DGM conducted a detailed socioeconomic survey. The data for the socio-economic survey on infrastructure, population, land use, and
livestock were collected from each household, and then recorded as shown in the tables below. The socioeconomic data collection was confined to settlements within a 250-meter buffer zone on either side of
Chamkhar Chhu. Table A1 shows 326 houses, including a population of 3,499 people and 1,688
livestock, within the surveyed area. The infrastructure types are differentiated in Table A2.
Table A1: Vulnerable Population, Infrastructure, and Livestock in Chamkhar Valley
Sl. No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Community Name
Batapalathang
Chakar
Chamkhar
Dawathang
Dekiling
Dodrang
Dorjibi
Dramphel
Gangrithang
Garphu
Goleng
Gongkhar
Jalikhar
Jambay Lhakhang
Kerchu
Kercshum
Khagtang
(December 2007) Annexes
Infrastructure
Population
33
6
15
9
34
3
1
13
6
1
4
5
13
2
1
13
5
74
Livestock
231
47
413
57
179
10
1
117
364
26
43
48
70
32
350
46
50
217
2
1
45
7
4
0
117
0
0
0
32
82
15
0
23
0
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
Kharsa
Kurjey
Nangsephel
Pangrithang
Pelrithang
Samthang
Sangsama
Talung
Tamshing
Tashiling
Tekarshong
Thangbi
Toktozam
Ugyensabji
Wangdicholing
Woolengthang
Zangtherpo
Zhabjithang
Total
3
13
20
8
2
7
14
2
1
1
4
10
3
1
43
3
13
14
326
11
266
131
49
23
54
96
5
0
9
4
44
6
11
283
17
308
98
3,499
2
104
407
22
1
113
270
0
0
31
0
17
5
6
54
9
12
90
1,688
Table A2: Types of Infrastructure in Chamkhar Valley
Code
Number of
Type of Infrastructure
infrastructure type
Commercial
CH
24
Governmental Institute
GH
20
Industry
ID
5
Utilities
IS
4
Residential House
RH
235
Religious Monument
RI
38
Total
326
Analysis of flood hazard zonation map
Due to a lack of information regarding the water volume of glacial lakes in the headwaters of Chamkhar
Chhu and past GLOF documentation, the present GLOF hazard zonation mapping in the Chamkhar
Valley was carried out using the following causative factors:
 Height of river terraces
 Land use
 River gradient
 Slope
 Type of soil/material along the river
 Internal relief of the flood plains and river beds
Considering an evaluation scale range of 1-9, these causative factors were then assigned with different
weights based on the importance of each factor in event of GLOF in the Chamkhar valley. Three main
steps were taken to produce the final hazard zonation map:
(December 2007) Annexes
75



Set scale values: The cell values for each input raster in the analysis are assigned values from
the evaluation scale. This makes it possible to perform arithmetic operations on raster that
originally held dissimilar types of values.
Assign weights to input rasters: Each input raster can be weighted, or assigned a percentage
influence, based on its importance. The total influence for all rasters must equal 100 percent.
Run the Weighted Overlay tool: The cell values of each input rasters are multiplied by the
raster's weight (or percent influence). The resulting cell values are added to produce the final
output raster.
The land use restrictions according to hazard zonation are summarized below:
 Red Zone: Individuals are endangered inside and outside of buildings and buildings will be
completely flooded. Therefore, new buildings must not be planned and existing buildings
must be relocated or technically secured. Agricultural land should not be cultivated.
 Yellow Zone: Individuals are endangered only outside of buildings, which will be partially
flooded. Therefore, new buildings must not be planned and existing buildings must be
reinforced. Agricultural land can be used but people should know evacuation path.
 Blue Zone: Individuals are slightly endangered only outside of buildings, which may be
partially flooded. Therefore, new buildings should not be planned and existing buildings
should be reinforced. Agricultural land can be used but people should know evacuation path.
(December 2007) Annexes
76
Hazard Zonation Map of Chamkhar Valley
(December 2007) Annexes
77
ANNEX 4: ASSESSMENT FOR THE GLOF EARLY WARNING SYSTEM IN PUNAKHAWANGDI VALLEY
PART I: Comparative Assessment of Early Warning Systems (EWS) in Operation in Norway
1.0 Introduction
As part of the Project Development Fund (PDF) activity for DGM-UNDP/GEF Project on “Reduce
climate change-induced risks and vulnerabilities from glacial lake outbursts in the PunakhaWangdi and Chamkhar Valleys”, a team comprising of Mr. Dowchu Dukpa, Project Manager and
Tashi Tshering, Geophysicist, of the Department of Geology and Mines undertook 11 days (14-24
April 2007) study tour to Norway for comparative assessment of Early Warning System in operation
in Norway. Jointly organized and hosted by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy
Directorate (NVE) and Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI), the study tour was focused on
familiarization of latest Flood Early Warning Systems (EWS) and its effectiveness for early warning;
site visit to Flood Early Warning Systems in operation in Norway; and discern applicability of such
system in Bhutan for GLOF EWS which will be installed during the execution of the Full Scale
Project (FSP), as reflected under outcome 3 of the project document. The team was also briefed on
the studies carried out in Norway over the past several years pertaining to impact of climate change
and its associated risks in form of GLOF and flash flood.
2.0 Flood Hazards and Flood EWS in Norway
Norway has been affected with numerous flooding events in the past including the outburst of the
glacial lake into hydro-power dam in 2001. Fig.1 shows the impact of flood disasters in Norway. The
annual damage due to flood in Norway is estimated to be 200 million NoK. The Norwegian
government, through key sectors such as the NVE, has installed several Early Warning Systems
through out the country with capability of alerting the public within short period of time. A typical
EWS station is shown in Fig.2 depicting how pressure sensors are being installed. The goal of the
national flood service is to “Provide timely flood warnings, so that efforts can be made to reduce
damage”. Most of the systems are based on analysis of temperature, runoff, precipitation and snow
data that are being collected from stations and gauges installed at various locations in the country.
Data collected from these stations, using data loggers, are relayed to the control centers where the
data are being analyzed on routine basis.
Fig. 1 Impact of flood disasters in Norway
(December 2007) Annexes
78
Fig. 2 A typical EWS station in Norway
(December 2007) Annexes
79
3.0 Overview of EWS System in Norway
The main component of flood Early Warning System is shown in Figure 3. Generally, to ensure
reliability of Early Warning System, components including sensors for detecting flood/GLOF,
communication system for transmission of data to the control center, and local warning stations are
essential.
Fig. 3 Overview of early warning system components
Pressures sensors are being commonly used in Norwegian flood Early Warning System. A typical
pressure sensor is about a cubic inch in size, though some may be a hundred or more times smaller,
for example those used in micro-electromechanical systems. Most modern pressure sensors work
based on a principle called piezoresistance. Pressure causes a material to conduct electricity at a
certain rate, leading to a specific level of charge flow associated with a specific level of pressure.
This charge is fed to a wire which leads to a control panel and display for human analysis. There are
several different types of pressure sensors. One is an absolute pressure sensor, which measures
absolute pressure using a vacuum as a reference point. Another is a gage sensor, which measures
pressure by reference to the ambient atmospheric pressure. There are also differential pressure
sensors, which measure the pressure difference between two contacts.
Data logger is a device that read various types of electrical signal and stores the data in internal
memory for later download to a computer; or can be transmitted to PC center via a communications
system such as satellite, modem, cellular telephone, etc. Due to following advantages, Sutron® data
logger is the widely used data logging system in Norway for flood early warning system.
 Easy programming and set up
 Ruggedized for harsh environments, fully functional from -40°C to +60°C
(December 2007) Annexes
80










Multi-tasking capability
Tiny Basic capable for special applications
Optional communications via satellite, LOS, telephone, modem, cellular telephone
Accepts counter, frequency, analog, RS-232, RS 485, and SDI-12 sensor inputs
Months of unattended recording before the internal battery requires recharging
Sealed, water-resistant, conformally coated, corrosion resistant boards
Keypad, display on front panel for simple setup
Setup organized by menus
Setup by laptop
Password lockouts
The most common communication system for transferring real time data from data logger to the PC
control center is cellular telephone since most of the EWS stations in Norway are within cellular
network coverage. Satellite communications are used in case of remote areas without cellular
coverage. Other communication systems that can be used for transferring data include fixed
telephone and Line of Sight (LOS) radio modem. Fig.4 below shows some of the means of
communication for transferring data.
Fig. 4 Data transfer systems
Data received from the various stations across Norway are being transmitted and stored at central
data acquisition and database system. Data are being routinely analyzed and in case of impending
flood, the public in Norway is warned through, mostly, mobile phones and the national TV. The
(December 2007) Annexes
81
flood control center is being attended by a dedicated staff of flood warning division under NVE and
has to be on duty 24 x 7. To have constant access to EWS data center, the mobile phone of the person
in charge of system is linked to the center. Fig.5 shows distribution of flood warning in Norway.
Fig. 5 Distribution of flood warning in Norway
4.0 Assessment for suitability in Bhutan
A GLOF early warning system will be installed in the Punakha-Wangdi valley during the Full Size
Project. Assessment of EWS is carried out with strong emphasis on functioning capability of the
system that is technically sound to trigger an alarm at all times and one that is equipped to have a
strong social response mechanism once the alarm has been sounded. The detailed assessment of an
integrated Early Warning System, focusing on technological capabilities, economic installation and
maintenance feasibilities and overall best fit system for the Punakha-Wangdi valley is discussed
below.
4.1 Early Warning System Technical Assessment
4.1.1 Sensors
Among wide range of sensors available for GLOF/Flood Early Warning System, following are some
of the sensors that may be most suitable for GLOF EWS in Punakha-Wangdi valley. Being
successfully used in Norway for flood EWS, pressure sensors together with geophones, radar, or
groundwater reflectometers are recommended for the Punakha-Wangdi EWS. The pressure sensors
can be inserted in the river bed or in the stable bedrock in the side slopes. However, it is important to
set the threshold values for the imposed load, based on glacier lake outburst flood routing. The
system should be able to comprehend between normal loading due to sediment deposition or
monsoonal high-flood events and loading due to GLOF event.
(December 2007) Annexes
82
4.1.2 Data loggers
There are several manufactures that supply range of Data Loggers. However, in our case, the most
suitable system seem to be the Sutron® data loggers since Sutron system has been widely used in
similar kind of climatic conditions in Norway. Moreover the Sutron® data logger, as we learned
during our study tour in Norway, is highly reliable and user friendly. A price quotation from the
company, along with the list of equipments necessary for setting up GLOF Early Warning System in
Punakha-Wangdi valley is attached in the Annexure.
4.1.3 Communication system
Even though there are several options for transferring data from the data logger to the control center,
in our case, the most suitable and economically viable option is to use Extended Line of Sight
(ELOS) radio modem. However, strong transmission power standard radio modem can also be used
with installation of signal repeaters. It is recommended that prior to the installation of the system,
range of radio link should be tested using walkie-talkie to ascertain appropriate location for setting
the repeaters. The choice of radio link could be either SATEL Radio Modem or Sutron Radio
Modem. Both SATEL and SUTRON have distributors in the region, which will extremely
convenient and economically viable in case of post-installation maintenance. The preliminary and
tentative budgetary quotation from Sutron is attached in the Annexure.
4.1.4 Automatic Data Acquisition System
Data acquisition system can be based either in Punakha, or more preferably in Thimphu. However,
the later option is not feasible due to high cost for setting up communication link from Punakha to
Thimphu. Data collected by the data logger will be automatically transferred via radio
communication to center control system. A decision as to alert the population should be preprogrammed based on a majority voting logic at the central data acquisition system. Sutron data
acquisition system is recommended for GLOF EWS in Punakha-Wangdi valley.
4.1.5 Public warning siren system
Once a GLOF threat has been detected by the majority voting logic of the technical EWS, the
population of the two valleys needs to be warned and evacuated to a safer location.
For this, appropriate locations should be selected for installation of powerful pressure horns/sirens.
Sutron has provided the details of warning system as shown in the Annexure. Since both Punakha
and Wangdi are covered by cellular phone, the public could also be warned using mobile phone and
perhaps, through national television.
5.0 EWS assessment by Austro-Bhutanese team
The Austro-Bhutanese investigation team in 2000-2002 and 2002-2003 carried out preliminary
assessment of technical Early Warning System in both Lunana area and Punakha-Wangdi valley. The
team has indicated the requirement of 4 key elements for effective technical EWS as shown below:
 Sensor array for GLOF detection
 Communication system
 Majority voting logic to decide if a GLOF has occurred and system monitoring
(December 2007) Annexes
83

Warning stations at the villages
The following are outcomes and suggestions from their study which has been extremely useful in
preparation of this report.
5.1 Design of technical EWS for eastern Lunana
Based on environmental conditions and very short pre-warning time available, the Austro-Bhutanese
team came out with an outline of a possible applicable system for the eastern Lunana.
To detect GLOF occurrence, sensor array such as groundwater reflectometer, geophones and
pressure sensors/pressure mattresses were recommended by the Austro-Bhutanese team. These
sensors can be installed in the river, along the river bank or at the side-slopes of the river. They have
indicated that the use of extensiometers, in case of artificial dam, is not relevant for GLOF due to
special characteristics of moraine dam; nor can we use water level monitoring system since normal
high water level need not necessary result in an outburst.
After careful assessment with emphasis on parameters such as available pre-warning time,
topography, transmission distance and cost, the team recommended to use the Extended Line of
Sight (ELOC) communication system for relaying data to the central station. The ELOS technology
uses the low end of the VHF-frequency band combined with high power transceivers (100 W)
reaching a faster signal transmission. No line of sight and no repeater stations are required. Signal
transmission up to maximum distance of 80 to 100 km and information about an impending flood can
be transmitted within 45 seconds in ELOS mode. More over, this system has been successfully
implemented at the Tsho Rolpa in Nepalese glacier.
To avoid false detection/alarm, the Austro-Bhutanese team recommended use of a majority voting
logic. This basically means that the system should use signals arriving from different sensors at
different location and on weights describing their reliability; the system then should decide, based on
a predefined scheme, if a GLOF alert really must be send. Also a continuous system monitoring is
required to make sure that the whole GLOF technical EWS is working properly.
The local warning stations recommended by the team comprises of an antenna for signal
transmission, a solar panel for power supply, a transmission unit and powerful pressure
horns/sirens to warn the population. The Austro-Bhutanese team has strongly recommended the use
of redundancy. This means that there should be at least two stations installed in each village. A
general design of a technical EWS for Eastern Lunana showing possible actual source of GLOF;
location of sensor array and communication systems; endangered villages/settlements with location
of local warning stations, is shown in Fig.6.
(December 2007) Annexes
84
Fig.6 Proposed GLOF technical EWS design by the Austro-Bhutanese team for Pho Chhu watershed
upstream of Wangdi Phodrang (Source: Brauner et. al., 2003)
5.2 Design of a technical EWS for Pho Chhu catchment downstream to Wangdi
The downstream areas of Punakha and Wangdi valley are susceptible to GLOF hazard not only from
eastern Pho Chhu watershed (Lunana), but also from Tang Chhu watershed originating from
Tarina. Also based on flood wave modeling/flood routing by the Austro-Bhutanese team, a technical
EWS design for the Pho Chhu catchment downstream to Wangdi is discussed below.
The proposed Austro-Bhutanese technical EWS showing location of GLOF sensor array, local
village warning stations and possible GLOF hazard locations are shown in Fig. 6. In total they have
proposed 4 GLOF sensor arrays consisting of sensor combinations as discussed above for the eastern
Lunana technical EWS. However, based on experience gained from Tsho Rolpa EWS, they
recommend use of Meteor Burst/Extended Line of Sight (ELOS) technology for transmission of
signals for Pho Chhu catchment downstream to Wangdi technical EWS. To enable integration of the
local Pho Chhu EWS into the regional system covering GLOF endangered places in Bhutan, they
(December 2007) Annexes
85
have also recommended setting up a remote master system. The Meteor Burst/ELOS system
should additionally have a satellite link.
6.0 Conclusions and recommendations
Based on analysis of the study tour and recommendations from Austro-Bhutanese team, the
following conclusions have been drawn for technical EWS assessment in Punakha-Wangdi valley:








Pressure sensors with combination of other sensors such as geophones and water level
sensors is recommended for the Punakha-Wangdi EWS
Sutron data logger or any other reliable system can be used for automatic data collection
Technically and economically viable option for transferring data to the control center would
be the Extended Line of Sight (ELOS) radio communication as recommended by the AustroBhutanese team. Sutron or SATEL radio communication is recommended.
Sutron or other technically sound Automatic Data Acquisition System can be used for data
acquisition and analysis at the control center
Powerful pressure horns/sirens should be used to alert the population during GLOF
The use of redundant sensors, alert system, and perhaps communication system, as
recommended by the Austro-Bhutanese team, should be implemented to avoid any false
alarm/detection
Warning should be strictly based on pre-programmed majority voting logic to avoid false
alarm/detection
Since the place where the sensor is planned to set up is about 17 km from Punakha
settlement, in case of GLOF event, time for evacuation of the population, once the alert is
received will be limited, especially for the settlements close to sensor location. Therefore,
setting up the sensors at the source lake in Lunana (which is about 100 km from Punakha)
will be most appropriate, even though such establishment will be expensive
7.0 Acknowledgment
The team members would sincerely like to thank organizers and resource persons at the NVE and
NGI for all their help and suggestions in making our study tour a very fruitful one. We would
especially like to thank Mr. Rajender Bhasin Kumar of NGI and Mr. David Alan Wright and Ripp
Kjell of NVE for arranging our meetings and site visit to EWS establishment centers in Norway.
(December 2007) Annexes
86
Product Name
XLite Data
Recorder, Basic
XLite Data
Recorder, Basic
with Radio
SatLink HDR
Satellite
Transmitter/Logger
Accubar Constant
Flow Bubbler
Antenna, GPS,
Bullet (High Gain)
Antenna, HalfWave OMNIDirectional
Satellite
Antenna, UHF
Battery, 12VDC,
105AH
Bullet Antenna
Tower Mount Arm
Cable Assy,
Antenna, 15 ft**
Cable Assy,
Power, 3 ft for
8200/8210/9000
Cable Assy, SemiRigid, Low Loss,
15 ft, Antenna
Cable Assy, Solar
Panel, 18 ft for
8200/8210/9000
***
(December 2007) Annexes
Product
Description
________
________
Satlink
Station
Installation
kit
100, 300 and
1200 BPS
New
Constant
Flow
AccuBubbler,
Water Level
Sensor
JamResistant
GPS Antenna
for SatLink
Stations
OMNI Half
Wave
Satellite
Antenna
406 –
512Mhz.
Specify
frequency.
Also part of
the SatLink
Kit.
Tower Mount
Arm for
5000-0170
Bullet
Antenna(UniStrut Solid
Wall)Satlink
kit
Satlink kit
** Extra
lengths
available at
$2.00 per
extra foot.
Satlink kit
Product #
Qty
Unit Price
9210-00001A
9210000R-1A
1
$2,211.00
Total
Price
$2,211.00
12
$3,750.00
$45,000.00
5
$3,257.00
$16,285.00
SL2-G3121
56-013325-1
6
$4,764.00
$28,584.00
5000-0170
5
$284.00
$1,420.00
5000-00201
5
$956.00
$4,780.00
5000-00301
13
$202.00
$2,626.00
5100-0010
13
$196.00
$2,548.00
2271-10611
5
$45.00
$225.00
6411-11621
5
$83.00
$415.00
6411-10182
13
$69.00
$897.00
________
6411-10221
13
$177.00
$2,301.00
Satlink kit
*** Extra
lengths
available at
6411-10173
13
$57.00
$741.00
87
$1.50 per
extra foot.
Cable, 5M for use
with 5000-0170
Bullet Antenna
Lightning
Protection Kit,
Station
Product Name
Protector, Coax Kit
with Cable
Solar Panel Charger
Ctrl, 8 amp
Solar Panel Mount
(53 W Panel)
Solar Panel, 53 Watt.
Order mount 22711049 and cable 64111017-3 separately
Tubing, Orifice Line,
Polyurethane, Black,
Per Ft.
XConnect Annual
support - required for
upgrades and phone
support.
XConnect Satellite
w/Database option
XConnect Standard
w/Database Option:
(December 2007) Annexes
Satlink kit
6411-15611
5
$87.00
$435.00
Satlink
Station kit
5100-06001
13
$331.00
$4,303.00
Product
Description
Satlink kit
Satlink kit
Satlink kit,
9210 kit
Satlink kit
Product #
81111099-1
51000408
22711049
51000406
Qty
Unit Price
Total Price
5
$133.00
$665.00
13
$88.00
$1,144.00
13
$171.00
$2,223.00
13
$629.00
$8,177.00
300
$3.00
$900.00
________
29111183
________
93000003-2
1
$1,548.00
$1,548.00
- : Includes all
modules from
XConnect
Satellite with
additional
modules used
for storage
and access to
data stored in
a relational
database.
Include
XConnect
Report
Library, XC
PostProc .
Includes all
modules from
XConnect
Standard plus
XC Reports
w/XConnect
Report
Library and
XC PostProc.
Database can
be Oracle or
Access.
Database
license is
furnsihed by
93000001-2
1
$10,762.00
$10,762.00
93000000-2
1
$6,191.00
$6,191.00
88
customer.
XConnect UtilsUtilities
Product Name
ESUSA-1
ESUSA-2
ESUSA-3
ESUSA-4
ESUSA-5
ESUSA-6
ESUSA-7
ESUSA-8
ESUSA-9
(December 2007) Annexes
Collection of
utilities to
enhance
XConnect.
The user must
have
XConnect
Standard or
XConnect
Satelite to run
the utilities.
Modules
include XC
Alarm and
XC Export.
XC Export
provides the
ability to
extract data
from the
XConnect
system
93000002-1
Product
Description
Site
investigation /
design trip,
two engineers
Integrate and
test siren
equipment
Base Station
setup
XLite
programming
2 weeks
training
Documentatio
n
Installation
supervision
and
commissionin
g
Base station
setup and
commissionin
g w/ training
XConnect
OMC annual
on-site visit
Product #
Qty
Special
Item
1
Special
Item
89
1
$253.00
$253.00
Unit
Price
$25,000.0
0
Total Price
1
$10,000.0
0
$10,000.00
Special
Item
Special
Item
Special
Item
Special
Item
Special
Item
1
$2,500.00
$2,500.00
1
$6,500.00
$6,500.00
1
$13,000.0
0
$5,000.00
$13,000.00
1
$12,500.0
0
$12,500.00
Special
Item
1
$7,500.00
$7,500.00
Special
Item
1
$7,500.00
$7,500.00
1
$25,000.00
$5,000.00
ESUSA-10
B-1
B-2
B-3
R-1
R-2
R-3
S-1
S-2
S-3
S-4
SG-1
SG-2
SG-3
Site
acceptance
and
commissionin
g trip
Base station
civil works
Base station
installation
Base station
computer
hardware
Repeater civil
works
Repeater
station
packaging
Repeater
installation
Siren station
civil works
Siren station
installation
Siren
packaging
Siren
equipment
Streamgage
Civil Works
Streamgage
packaging
Streamgage
installation
Special
Item
1
$12,500.0
0
$12,500.00
Special
Item
Special
Item
Special
Item
1
$2,500.00
$2,500.00
1
$1,500.00
$1,500.00
1
$8,000.00
$8,000.00
Special
Item
Special
Item
2
$20,000.00
2
$10,000.0
0
$2,000.00
Special
Item
Special
Item
Special
Item
Special
Item
Special
Item
Special
Item
Special
Item
Special
Item
2
$5,000.00
$10,000.00
6
$7,500.00
$45,000.00
6
$3,000.00
$18,000.00
6
$1,500.00
$9,000.00
6
$90,000.00
5
$15,000.0
0
$7,500.00
5
$1,500.00
$7,500.00
5
$3,000.00
$15,000.00
Freight:
____TBD__
__
$514,634.00
Grand
Total:
$4,000.00
$37,500.00
Special Item(s) Notes:
ESUSA-1 Engineering Services USA - Design review trip
ESUSA-2 Engineering Services USA - Siren integration and test
ESUSA-3 Engineering Services USA - Base station setup and test
ESUSA-4 Engineering Services USA - Site logger programming
ESUSA-5 Engineering Services USA - Training labor for Bhutan trip
ESUSA-6 Engineering Services USA - System documentation
ESUSA-7 Engineering Services USA - Installation supervision and commissioning trip
ESUSA-8 Engineering Services USA - Base station installation and test
ESUSA-9 Engineering Services USA - XConnect annual maintenance agreement
ESUSA-10 Engineering Services USA - Site acceptance and commissioning
R-1 Repeater - Civil Works
R-2 Repeater - NEMA Enclosure, back panel, tower, mounting and installation hardware and cabling
R-3 Repeater - Installation of logger and telemetry equipment
S-1 Siren - Civil Works
S-2 Siren tower, power suppy, antenna, cabling, enclosure, etc.
S-3 Siren - Installation of electronics
S-4 Siren - Siren equipment package - siren, relay, cabling, brackets, tower, etc.
SG-1 Stream Gage / Water Level Station - Civil works
SG-2 Stream Gage / Water Level Station - NEMA Enclosure, back panel, tower, mounting and installation hardware and cabling
(December 2007) Annexes
90
SG-3 Stream Gage / Water Level Station - Installation of logger and telemetry equipment
Payment Terms: Letter of Credit on International Bank acceptable to Sutron, phased payments based on delivery
and acceptance criteria
Freight Terms: To be determined based on actual order – plan on 4 to 5% of equipment total
Expected Delivery: Project will require six to nine months, minimum
Ordering Contact: Sharon Houldsworth at Sutron headquarters in Sterling, Virginia, (703) 406-2800, extension 217.
Tom Keefer
Vice President
Direct Line: (703) 406-2800
Email: tkeefer@sutron.com
(December 2007) Annexes
91
PART II: Site assessment of GLOF Early Warning System in Punakha-Wangdi valley
1.0 Introduction
Out of 24 potentially dangerous glacier lakes in Bhutan (ICIMOD 2001), eight are located in the
head waters of Pho Chhu sub-basin making downstream areas of Punakha and Wangdi the most
GLOF vulnerable valley in Bhutan. Even though no documentation exists, the Pho Chhu valley has
reported to have been devastated by flood in 1956 and 1961(Leeber et. al., 2002). The latest and well
documented GLOF event in Lunana occurred in 1994 causing huge property and livestock damage in
the down stream of Lunana glacier lake and claimed about 22 lives, mostly in Punakha- Wangdi
valley. To reduce the impact of such disaster in future and to give the downstream inhabitants
sufficient time for evacuation, a technical early warning system consisting of sensor array,
communication system, and local warning systems (sirens) will be installed during the Full Size
Project (FSP) in the Punakha-Wangdi valley. The present study emphasizes on identification of best
location for sensor installation, economically and technically viable communication system to relay
real time data from station to the control center/local warning centers, identification of appropriate
place for siren tower setting, and finally to determine the most suitable place for setting up personnel
control center in Punakha-Wangdi valley. The actual installation of the EWS will be carried out
during the FSP for which the implementing agency has requested the Global Environment Facility
(GEF) for a budget of approximately US$970,000/-.
2.0 General topography of Punakha-Wangdi valley
The major settlements along the Pho Chhu valley include Samdingkha, Punakha, Khuruthang, and
Bajo-Wangdi Phodrang area (Fig.1). The topography of Pho Chhu valley till sensor location 1 is
structured by sharp bedrock ridges and narrow, bedrock controlled cross-sections forcing the river to
frequently change flow direction. Below sensor location 1, in spite of bedrock controlled, the river
channel starts to widen up and reduces gradient; and as a result bank sedimentation can be seen. The
banks are thickly vegetated and channel gradient is significantly below 5% and therefore a
considerable potential for wooden debris structures being able to temporarily block the channel,
which can cause secondary flood waves when the structure breaks up (Brauner et. al., 2003). Below
Wolathang school, the valley broadens and the river2 morphology changes towards a fluvial
environment (Brauner et.al. 2003). Four terrace levels can be mapped with the highest level at
elevation of 10-20 m above the active river level. The upper level corresponds to the surface relict
depositional cones emerging from later valleys; these are a predominant feature of the Pho Chhu
channel, forcing passive meandering of the river.
(December 2007) Annexes
92
Fig. 1 Google earth image of Punakha-Wangdi valley showing major topographic and
settlements of the valley
3.0 Site Assessment
3.1 Sensor location
During the present investigation, two possible sites (as shown in Fig.2) for sensor installation were
identified. Both sites are located on the left bank of the Pho Chhu river. Sensor location 1 (Fig.2)
situated approximately 3 km north of Wolathang (Thamji) School in the so called “Punakha gorge”
is assessed to be the most ideal site. Along this section (Fig.3), the river is deeply incised into the bed
rock and the sensor can be installed either into the bed rock on the stable side slope of the area.
This site, accessible by motor vehicle till Wolathang School, is located approximately 17 km from
the Punakha dzong and about 13 km from the first siren tower to be installed at Samdingkha. The
other suitable sensor location (Fig.4) is identified at about 1.3 km downstream of site 1 at a point
where the Pho Chhu turns from east-west to south-west direction as shown in Fig. 2. Here sensor can
be installed into the bedrock exposed at the right bank of river. Based on site assessment and longer
warning time available, location 1 is recommend for installation of sensors.
To determine the pre-warning time available for alerting and evacuation of the population living
down stream of sensor location 1, information from the 1994 GLOF event is instrumental. Lunana is
located about 100 km from Punakha and present sensor location is about 20 km from Punakha; the
1994 flood took approximately 7 hours to reach Punakha as per Austro-Bhutanese back-calculation
(December 2007) Annexes
93
of the event (Brauner et. al., 2003) and also from eye witness report. Therefore, once the flood is
detected by the sensor, the time available for alerting and evacuation of people as result of the EWS
along the Punakha-Wangdi valley can be tentatively calculated as shown below:
Sl.
No.
Name of place
downstream of
Sensor location 1
Distance (km)
from sensor
location 1
Approx. time for
flood to reach at the
place in column 2
Approx.
available time
for evacuation
1
Samdingkha
13
54 mins
54 mins
2
Punakha
20
1 hr 24 mins
1 hr 24 mins
3
Khuruthang
24
1 hr 40 mins
1 hr 40 mins
4
Wangdi-Bajo
32
2 hrs 14 min
2 hrs 14 mins
(December 2007) Annexes
94
Fig.2 Sensor and siren location for GLOF early warning system in Punakha-Wangdi valley
(December 2007) Annexes
95
Fig.3 Picture showing Pho Chhu and area of sensor location 1 (see Fig. 2)
Fig.4 Picture showing sensor location 2 above Wolathang School
(December 2007) Annexes
96
3.2 Siren towers and alert system
i. Samdingkha Area
Samdingkha town located about 7 km from Punakha town and approximately 13 km from sensor
location 1 (see Fig.1) is highly vulnerable to GLOF as per hazard zonation carried out by the AustroBhutanese team (Brauner et. al., 2003). Therefore, a siren tower and public alert system must be
installed at Samdingkha area. During the present study, two possible locations for siren tower were
identified (Fig.2). Siren location 1 is situated below Lorina village on right side of Pho Chhu facing
Samdingkha town area and about 60 m from the river water level (Fig.5). The area is very stable and
has good view of all the vulnerable areas along the river and the Samdingkha town. However, there is
limited space for construction of the tower as the identified site falls in the paddy field and the only
alternate is to install the tower at the edge of the field. The second location as shown in Fig. 2 is
about 200m straight above Samdingkha suspension bridge (Fig.7). This site also has good view of the
vulnerable areas along the river (Fig.6) and the area is very stable with enough space for construction
of siren tower and public alert system. In view of limited space for setting up the tower(s) at location
1, site 2 is recommended for installing siren tower(s) and alert system.
Fig. 5 Picture showing siren location 2 below Lorina village
Fig.6 A panoramic view of Samdingkha town from siren location 1 and 2
(December 2007) Annexes
97
Fig.7 Picture showing siren tower location 2 above Samdingkha suspension bridge
ii. Punakha Area
The next vulnerable area along the Pho Chhu river is Punakha dzong and School area. This area is
approximately 20 km from the sensor location 1 upstream of Pho Chhu. Based on stability of the site
and good visibility within 1-2 km along the GLOF vulnerable areas in the Punakha area, two possible
siren tower locations were identified (Fig. 2). Location 2 is identified on the left side of Punatsang
Chhu river and about 30m above Wangdi-Samdingkha road on the opposite side of Punakha Higher
Secondary School football ground (Fig.2 and 8). A panoramic view of the vulnerable areas in
Punakha area taken from the site 2 is shown in Fig.9. The other alternative (location 1) is to install
the siren tower at lower part of the Punakha ridge as shown in Fig.2 and 10. This area, however,
doesn’t have good visibility along the vulnerable places in Punakha and therefore location 2 is
recommended for setting the siren tower(s).
(December 2007) Annexes
98
Fig.8 Picture showing siren tower location 2 at Punakha opposite to PHSS football ground
Fig. 9 Panoramic view of Punakha area from siren location 2
(December 2007) Annexes
99
Fig.10 Picture showing siren tower location 2 at the lower part of Punakha ridge
iii. Khuruthang Area
Khuruthang is the largest center and commercial hub of Punakha dzongkhag. The Austro-Bhutanese
hazard zonation of Khuruthang delineated most of the areas below the road under high hazard zone
(Brauner et. al., 2003). Particularly, they have identified some houses, a hotel (River View), and a
Lhakhang located on the lowest terrace to be prone to flooding. Location for siren tower installation
in Khuru area is identified on the left side of Punatsang Chhu approximately 80m above the
Samdingkha-Wangdi road (~200m from the Khuru bridge towards Samdingkha) facing the Khuru
township (Fig.2 & 11). This area is found to be very stable with no settlements near by and has good
visibility of the whole Khuru town and vulnerable areas along the Punatsang Chhu. Fig. 12 shows a
panoramic view of whole Khuruthang area taken from the identified siren tower site location 1.
(December 2007) Annexes
100
Fig.11 Picture showing siren tower location 1 at Khuruthang area
Fig.12 Panoramic view of Khuru town from siren tower location 1
iv. Wangdi-Bajo Area
The ideal location for siren tower setting in Wangdi-Bajo area is shown in Fig.2. The site location 1
is identified about 70m from the Wangdi-Thimphu directly above the Dragon Inn Resort (Fig.13).
This site has good view of the flood vulnerable areas along Punatsang Chhu section of Wangdi
Phodrang and there are no settlements in the vicinity. Fig. 15 shows a panoramic view of WangdiBajo area taken from the site. Site location 2 is about 80 m above Samdingkha-Wangdi road as
shown in Fig.2 & 14. This site also has good view of flood vulnerable areas along Puna Tsang Chhu
section of Bajo-Wangdi area. However, the area is located in the paddy field and therefore, site 1 is
recommended for setting the siren tower(s).
(December 2007) Annexes
101
Fig. 13 Picture showing siren tower location 1 at Wangdi above Dragon Inn Resort
Fig. 14 Picture showing siren tower location 2 at Bajo area
Fig.15 A panoramic view of Bajo-Wangdi area from siren location 1
3.3 Flood monitoring/control center
The main control center for the Early Warning System can be stationed in Khuruthang. The station
should be built on the GLOF secure areas of the third or fourth terrace as described in the AustroBhutanese GLOF hazard zonation map of 2002-2003.
(December 2007) Annexes
102
3.4 Comments on communication system
Due to rugged terrain use of standard radio modem communication system will require many
repeaters and thus become expensive. During the site investigation, the range of radio signal was
tested using walkie-talkie and found that even up till Samdingkha, which is about 13 km from sensor
location 1, at least 4 signal repeaters would be required. Therefore, Extended Line of Sight (ELOS)
radio communication, which doesn’t require repeater, is recommended for relaying data from data
logger/station to the control center. This system has also been recommended by the AustroBhutanese team.
4.0 Conclusions and recommendations
The following conclusions and recommendations are drawn from the present site assessment for
installation of sensor, siren towers and personnel station in connection to GLOF EWS in PunakhaWangdi valley:
• Two sensor installation sites were identified upstream of Pho Chhu in the Punakha gorge
located about 20 km from Punakha. Site 1 is recommended for sensor installation
• Based on GLOF vulnerability of the area and site assessment, siren tower(s) and public alert
system installation sites were identified in Samdingkha, Punakha, Khuruthang and WangdiBajo area
• Due to rugged terrain, use of standard radio modem for communication will involve
installation of many signal repeaters which becomes very expensive; therefore, Extended
Line of Sight (ELOS) radio communication is recommended
• Personnel control center is recommended to establish in the third or fourth terrace at
Khuruthang
•
Based on flood arrival time from Lunana to Punakha during 1994 GLOF event, the
approximate pre-warning time available for flood vulnerable areas along the Pho Chhu area
calculated approximately: Samdingkha 54 minutes; Punakha area: 1 hour 24 minutes;
Khuruthang: 1 hour 40 minutes; Wangdi- Bajo: 2 hours 14 minutes
5.0 References
Brauner M., Leber, D., Hausler, H., Agner, P., Payer, T. and Wangda, D. (2003): Final report of the
GLOF mitigation project (2002-2003), Flood outing, hazard zonation and early warning system of
the Pho Chhu watershed downstream to Punakha/Wangdi, 73 pp.
ICIMOD, 2001 inventory
Leeber, D., Hausler, H., Brauner, M., and Wangda, D., 2002. Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF)
mitigation project: Pho Chhu-Eastern branch (Thanza-Lhedi; 2002-2003), Lunana, Bhutan, 189 pp.
(December 2007) Annexes
103
ANNEX 5: ONGOING DISASTER AND CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT PROGRAMS
RELEVANT TO THE PROPOSED PROJECT
DRM/CRM Programs
Austro-Bhutanese project
Japanese and Bhutanese
project
Dutch-funded project
“Hazard zonation mapping
for glacial lake outburst
flood (GLOF) from
Khuruthang (Punakha) to
Kalikhola along Puna Tsang
Chu River”
UNDP and RGOB project
“Strengthening Disaster Risk
Management Capacities in
Bhutan”
UNDP and RGOB project
“Earthquake Risk Reduction
and Recovery Preparedness
Project for Bhutan”
UNEP regional project
“Monitoring and Early
Warning Systems for Glacial
Lake Outburst Floods: A
(December 2007) Annexes
Activities
Determined the stability of the moraine dams around several lakes in
Lunana and assessed GLOF vulnerability in the downstream region.
Various surveys were conducted, and a hazard zonation map was
developed for the area from Lunana to Khuruthang, Punakha, for GLOF.
This collaboration also developed the mitigation plan for artificially
lowering water levels in Thorthormi Lake.
Determined disaster risk on the main glacier body. It included a general
reconnaissance survey for all types of glaciers and glacial lakes in
Bhutan’s Himalayas from Soe Jangkhothang to Gang Rinchen zoe area in
1998. The project also conducted measurements on Thorthormi and
Lugge glaciers to assess the glacier melting rates and installed a weather
station, which is still functioning, to record meteorological data.
Currently conducting a hazard zonation of the Punakha-Wangdi Valley,
which contributes to co-financing for this proposed project. This activity
follows on from the collaboration with Austria that produced a hazard
zonation map of the area from Lunana to Punakha. DGM will produce a
high-quality hazard map for GLOF covering the area from Kuruthang,
Punakha, to Kalikhola at Bhutan’s border with India. The final output will
be available in December 2007.
Four strategic areas: 1) Strengthening institutional mechanisms for
disaster risk management; 2) Capacity building for disaster risk
management at local and intermediate levels; 3) Knowledge management
and partnerships; and 4) Mainstreaming disaster risk management in
development, which includes addressing GLOFs, the urban sector, health,
environment, agriculture and food security, and transportation. This
project will contribute to several of the program’s objectives, such as
Sub-component IV.2 on “Monitoring the most critical hazards and linking
with early warning systems”.
As part of a region program, the project will strengthen institutional and
community-level capacity to plan and implement earthquake risk
reduction strategies and disaster recovery preparedness—skills that are
transferrable to other types of natural disasters. Seven key outputs
include: 1) Develop/review standards, codes, and guidelines for seismic
evaluation and retrofitting of buildings; 2) Identification of earthquake
risk and vulnerability assessment; 3) Institutional and community
capacity building for preparedness and mitigation; 4) Implement model
projects to support mitigation measures for seismic risk reduction; 5)
Strengthen the capacity of the government in disaster recovery
preparedness; 6) Support locally appropriate solutions for earthquake risk
reduction; and 7) Facilitate sharing and exchange of national and regional
information, lessons, and best practices for policy feedback and advocacy.
This regional project includes Bhutan and has four main components: 1)
Preparation of an inventory of glacial lakes in Bhutan, China, India,
Nepal, Pakistan, Kyrgyztan, and Tajikistan; 2) Monitoring and
assessment of glacial lakes and the assessment of current and future risks
104
DRM/CRM Programs
tool for adaptive land use
planning”
Hydro-met Services and
NEC with support from
FAO
Department of Energy
Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO)
NEC
NEC
MEA’s Hydro-Meteorology
Division
NEC projects funded by
GEF
(December 2007) Annexes
Activities
due to climate change on the lakes, socio-economic systems, and
ecosystems; 3) Developing, testing, and demonstrating adaptation
measures, and 4) Information dissemination and support for continuous
implementation.
A one-year project to develop capacity and implement good water
governance through the strengthening of a knowledge base, institutional
set up and planning tools for integrated water resources management
(IWRM) within the context of integrated watershed management. The
project also aims to implement decentralized IWRM so that local
stakeholders and national policies are properly linked.
Undertaking important measures for flood and GLOF monitoring and
early warning. In collaboration with ICIMOD and WMO, the Hydromet
Services is participating in a flood information network in the Hindu
Kush Himalaya region that includes Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and
China. The Department of Energy also operates the Flood Warning
Section (FWS). The FWS is funded by the Government of India and the
RGOB.
Maintains databases of information on agriculture, forestry, and food, and
provides this information to policymakers to maintain food security. The
World Food Programme (WFP) provides food stocks, such as through
school meals program and focuses on food security in rural areas.
Preparing Bhutan’s Second National Communication (SNC) to review
and update assessments carried out in the Initial National
Communication. The SNC involves the following: 1) Produce an
overview of national circumstances; 2) Conduct a greenhouse gas
inventory; 3) Develop programs to facilitate adaptation to climate change
in water resources, forestry and biodiversity, agriculture and livestock,
human health, and glaciers; 4) Develop programs to mitigate climate
change; 5) Compile other information to achieve objectives of the
UNFCCC regarding issues such as technology transfer, education, and
capacity building; and 6) Identify constraints and gaps related to
financial, technical, and capacity needs.
Drafted a strategy for “Environmental Education for Sustainability” to
serve as a guiding framework for implementation of environmental
education programs. However, the strategy has yet to become operational.
There is a need to review and finalize the strategy and for
implementation.
Maintains and analyzes rainfall, temperature and humidity data from
more than 85 meteorological stations across the country. These data are
also used by the MoA’s Agro-Meteorology Section to support agricultural
research activities and help to monitor climate trends and understand
risks.
Three enabling activities (completing a GHG inventory, identifying
technology needs, and the NAPA), and a community micro-hydro project.
Aside from the GHG inventory, these projects help the country to better
understand climate risks and vulnerabilities, as well as understanding
potential responses for adapting to a changing climate.
105
DRM/CRM Programs
UNDP/GEF Small Grants
Programme
(December 2007) Annexes
Activities
Strengthening resilience through the formulation of Micro Environmental
Action Plans to build local community awareness and participation,
integrated conservation, and development projects in protected areas and
their buffer zones, and various community-based projects.
106
ANNEX 6: SOCIO-ECONOMIC DATA IN BHUTAN
Planned and proposed hydropower plants along Puna Tsang Chu
PROJECT ID
CAPACITY DZONGKHAG
Status
13.120
710 MW
Wangdi Phodrang
Feasibility studied
13.230B
840 MW
Wangdi Phodrang
Proposed
13.250
220 MW
Wangdi Phodrang
Proposed
Basochhu I
40 MW
Wangdi Phodrang
Commissioned
Basochhu II
40 MW
Wangdi Phodrang
Under construction
Source: Ministry of Economic Affairs, 2007
Poverty rates in Bhutan by region
Source: National Statistical Bureau, 2004
Note: Western Region includes Thimphu, Paro, Ha, Samtse, Chhukha, Punakha, and Gasa; Central Region
includes Wangdi Phodrang, Daga, Tsirang, Sarpang, Zhemgang, Trongsa, and Bumthang; and Eastern Region
includes Lhuntse, Mongar, Pemagatsel, Samdrup Jongkhar, Trashigang, and Trashi Yangtse.
(December 2007) Annexes
107
ANNEX 7: GLOF RISK IN THE LUNANA REGION OF BHUTAN
The ICIMOD/UNEP GLOF inventory in 2007 shows that the number of high-risk glacial lakes has
increased to 25, and the team identified 983 glaciers and 2,794 glacial lakes.3, 4 This is in line with
findings in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report that
climate change is contributing to glacier melt.5
Distribution of Glacial Lakes in Bhutan’s Himalayas
Source: DGM
In the Lunana region, Raphstreng Lake has greatly expanded from the late 1950s to 1994. It measured
about 100 m in depth in 1999. The present dimension of the lake is believed to be the end of its expansion
since the upstream part has already reached the bedrock wall. Though three phases of mitigation work
was carried out on this lake from 1996 to 1998 lowering the lake water level by about 4 m, the risk of
GLOF cannot be ruled out considering the large volume of water still stored in the lake and chain effect
of GLOF from other adjacent lakes. The building up of hydrostatic pressure in the adjacent Thorthormi
lakes, which only has a moraine wall as a barrier between them, poses a threat to the stability of the
Raphstreng Tso.
3
ICIMOD and UNEP, 2007. Impact of Climate Change on Himalayan Glaciers and Glacial Lakes: Case Studies on
GLOF and Associated Hazards in Nepal and Bhutan, Kathmandu: ICIMOD
4
DGM, 2007. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods and Associated Hazards, Mitigation Measures Adaptation to Debris
Flows in the Bhutan Himalaya: With an example of Pho Chu Basin. Not yet published.
5
IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis – Summary for Policy Makers. Geneva: WMO and
UNEP. Globally, the melting of glaciers and ice caps has in turn raised sea levels at a rate of 0.50 mm per year from
1963 to 2003, which increased to 0.77 mm per year in the decade from 1993 to 2003.
(December 2007) Annexes
108
Dangerous Glacial Lakes in Bhutan’s Lunana Region
Source : DGM, 2007. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods and Associated Hazards, Mitigation Measures Adaptation
to Debris Flows in the Bhutan Himalaya: With an example of Pho Chu Basin.
Increase in Area of Glacial Lakes in the Lunana Region
Source : DGM, 2007. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods and Associated Hazards, Mitigation Measures Adaptation
to Debris Flows in the Bhutan Himalaya: With an example of Pho Chu Basin.
The figure below shows the expansion of Thorthormi lake over approximately four decades. A continuing
expansion of these supraglacial lakes was seen in 1998 during the first joint Japan-Bhutan field
(December 2007) Annexes
109
expedition. Considering the accelerated ice melt and other characteristics of the glacier and glacial lake,
the team concluded that this growing lake has a potential for outburst in the near future.
Time series expansion of Thorthormi supraglacial lakes from 1956-58 to 1993
Source: Ageta et al, 2000
Map of Lunana Region and Downstream Areas of Punakha-Wangdi Valley
Source: DGM
(December 2007) Annexes
110
ANNEX 8: PRELIMINARY DESIGN AND FEASIBILITY OF GLOF RISK MITIGATION AT
THORTHORMI LAKE
Brauner, M., D. Leber, H. Häusler (2003) Glacier Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) Mitigation Project,
Lunana, Bhutan: Technical mitigation measures – Thorthormi outlet. Department of Geological Sciences,
University of Vienna, Austria; and Department of Geology and Mines, Thimphu, Bhutan, October 2003.
[Annexes pp. 111-146 attached separately]
(December 2007) Annexes
111
ANNEX 9: REPORTS OF STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATIONS DURING THE PPG PHASE
Inception workshop on “Reduce Climate Change-Induced Risks and Vulnerabilities
from Glacial Lake Outbursts in the Punakha-Wangdi and Chamkhar Valleys”
Minutes of the Workshop
Date: January 24, 2007
Venue: Meri Puensum Resort, Punakha
Participants:
1. Dasho Dr. Sonam Tenzin, Chief Guest, Director General, Department of Local
Governance, Ministry of Home Affairs
2. Nicolas Rossillini, Resident Representative, UNDP Bhutan
3. Dorji Wangda, Director, Department of Geology & Mines, Ministry of Trade & Industry
4. Mihoko Kumamoto, UNDP-GEF, New York
5. Seeta Giri, UNDP
6. Karma Chogyal, UNDP
7. Kunzang Dorji, Disaster Management Division, Department of Local Governance,
Ministry of Home Affairs
8. Ramesh Chhetri, Austrian Co-ordination Office
9. Sangay T. Dorji, WFP
10. G. Karma Chhopel, National Environment Commission
11. Tenzing Wangmo, Planning Commission Secretariat
12. Ichharam Dulal, Department of Urban Development and Engineering Services, Ministry
of Works and Human Settlement
13. Gyembo Dorji, Department of Public Health, Ministry of Health
14. Dowchu Dukpa, Project Manger, Department of Geology and Mines, Ministry of Trade
and Industry
15. Karma (Toeb), Sr. Glaciologist, Department of Geology and Mines, Ministry of Trade
and Industry
16. Deo Raj Gurung, Sr. Geomorphologist, Department of Geology and Mines, Ministry of
Trade and Industry
17. Lalit Kumar Chhetri, Map Production Technologist (MPA), Department of Geology and
Mines, Ministry of Trade and Industry
18. Taki Prasad Thapa, Geologist, Department of Geology and Mines, Ministry of Trade and
Industry
19. K.S. Ghalley, Geologist, Department of Geology & Mines, Ministry of Trade and
Industry
20. Ugyen Thinley, GIS/RS Expert, Department of Geology and Mines, Ministry of Trade
and Industry
21. Wangchu Bidha, Office Assistant, Department of Geology and Mines, Ministry of Trade
and Industry
22. Neten Wangmo, Office Assistant, Department of Geology and Mines, Ministry of Trade
and Industry
(December 2007) Annexes
147
Summary
Reduce Climate Change-Induced
Risks and Vulnerabilities from
Glacial Lake Outbursts in the
Punakha-Wangdi and Chamkhar
Valleys, the DGMUNDPGEF
Project inception workshop was
held on January 24, 2007, at the
Meri Puensum Resort, Punakha.
The fast retreating glaciers in the
Bhutan Himalaya is posing
imminent threat to lives and
properties
of
down
stream
inhabitants along the PunakhaWangdi and Chamkhar valley. The
inception workshop deliberated on
reducing the impact of GLOF in
the
country
through
implementation of NAPA (National Adaptation Program of Action) outcomes--the hazard zonation
of Punakha-Wangdi and Chamkhar valley and assessment of establishing a GLOF Early Warning
System in Punakha-Wangdi valley. Speakers from the implementing agency, the Department of
Geology and Mines, presented: On the conceptualization and status of the PDF B project;
methodology adapted for execution of the project; implementation issues; and development of a Full
Scale Project (FSP). The inception workshop was attended by various stake holder agencies within
the Royal Government of Bhutan, UNDP Systems in Bhutan and representative from the UNDPGEF Head Quarter, New York. Media was also invited for the workshop to facilitate information
dissemination and create awareness to the general public on the project and its implication for
reduction of GLOF hazards in the kingdom.
Welcome Address
Mr. Dorji Wangda, director, department of Geology and Mines, welcomed and thanked the Chief
Guest, Dasho Dr. Sonam Tenzin and UNDP Resident Representative, Mr. Nicolas Rossillini, for
sparing their invaluable time to attend this very important workshop. The director also thanked Mrs.
Mihoko Kumamoto, UNDP-GEF, for coming all the way from New York to attend the inception
workshop. Finally, he welcomed all the participants representing different agencies from the Royal
Government of Bhutan to the inception workshop.
Opening Address
Dasho Dr. Sonam Tenzin (Chief Guest) introduced the topic by recognizing the importance of
disaster management and risk reduction activities in the country. The Chief Guest, who is the
Director General of the Department of Local Governance, the nodal agency for disaster management
in the country, briefly touched on the initiatives that are being under taken by the nodal agency
including the launch of National Disaster Risk Management (NRDM) framework document in 2006.
(December 2007) Annexes
148
The Chief Guest emphasized on the roles (which are clearly defined in the NDRM) each sector must
play for successful implementation of disaster management in the kingdom. Bhutan is prone to
numerous natural disasters such as GLOF, earthquake and flash flood; therefore, the chief guest
informed the participants that it is of vital importance to have coordinated effort between the nodal
agency and relevant sectors for disaster prevention, reduction and preparedness in the country. He
explained that DLG’s core responsibilities shall be facilitating disaster activities in the country and
coordinate disaster response, rehabilitation and preparedness in the country. The chief guest,
however, pointed out that technicalities of disaster prevention, mitigation and reduction shall be
carried out by specific sectors in close coordination with DLG. Finally, the chief guest acknowledged
the important work being carried out by the department of Geology and Mines and also thanked the
funding agency UNDP-GEF for their generous financial assistance.
The UNDP country representative Mr. Nicolas Rossillini, stated that 45% of national revenue is
from power export to India; hydro-power infrastructures in Bhutan are located in GLOF vulnerable
down stream areas. Therefore, assessment of GLOF vulnerability in the down stream area is of
paramount importance to the country. Historically, Mr. Rossillini, stated that Punakha-Wangdi
valley has experienced such devastating events during 1957, 1960 and 1994. The hazard zonation of
Punakha-Wangdi Valley and assessment for establishing an Early Warning System in the PunakhaWangdi valley will be carried out during the PDF B part of the DGMUNDPGEF project, Mr.
Rossillini added.
Mr. Dowchu Dukpa, Project Manger,
Department of Geology and Mines,
presented on the history behind the
development of the project; the growing
threat from GLOF as result of global
warming and climate change; the alarming
rate of glacier retreat in the Bhutan
Himalayas; and resulting risks from
expansion of glacial lakes. The PDF B
activity, co-sponsored by GEF, NCAP and
RGoB, with total budget outlay of USD
430,000.00, will be focused on GLOF
hazard zonation of Punakha-Wangdi
Valley and assessment of establishing a
GLOF Early Warning System in the
Punakha-Wangdi valley, the Project Manager presented. The Project Manger also informed the
participants that the outcome of the PDF activity will be used for developing a FSP brief and UNDP
Project document for final submission to the GEF secretariat. Out of the total budget outlay of USD
6.95 million for the FSP, the GEF request is about USD 3.45 million, Mr. Dukpa added. The Project
Manger further talked on the Project Work Plan and informed the floor that the project is
progressing smoothly and that about 90% of the outcome 1 of the work plan has been achieved. Mr.
Dukpa, however, submitted to the members about the problem, the project management is facing,
regarding procurement of equipments, which are indispensable for taking up the field work. The
problem is exacerbated due to lack of local vendors for supplying field equipments like “Total
Station” survey equipment and therefore, the Project Manger suggested UNDP to do the
(December 2007) Annexes
149
procurement. The Project Manager also mentioned about the lack of sufficient information on the
head waters of Chamkhar valley as some of the constraints the project management is confronting.
On this constraint, the participants responded as to how the team is going to produce an appropriate
flood model of Chamkhar valley without knowing the lake water volume. The Project Manager
explained that the question will be addressed by the next presenter, Mr. Deo Raj Gurung. The
Project Manager also informed the floor that letter with regards to Project Steering Committee
(PSC) formation has already been sent to all the members and that he has, so far, received only one
confirmation from the DADM. However, the participants responded saying that since all the PSC
members were present in the workshop, it would be most appropriate to finalize the PSC during the
workshop. Accordingly, PSC members were identified and finalized.
Mr. Deo Raj Gurung, Geomorphorlogist, DGM, presented on the technical aspects of the project.
He briefly talked on the glacial lakes and GLOF history of Bhutan; previous studies conducted by the
DGM and other collaborative works. The present project, Mr. Gurung, mentioned is a follow up
work based on recommendations from previous investigations carried out over the past many years,
especially in the Lunana basin, where most of the past investigations were concentrated. Mr.
Gurung, then presented on the methodology that will be adopted for hazard zonation of the
Chamkhar valley and also for the assessment of installation of technical Early Warning System in the
Punakha-Wangdi Valley. Mr. Gurung presented that so far, outcome 1 of the project work plan
which involves compilation and creation of database of existing information on GLOF related studies
has almost been completed. Regarding hazard zonation of Chamkhar valley, Mr. Gurung informed
the participants about the challenge the
project team is confronting, especially
for flood modeling, which is an
important component of the work. He
explained lack of source (lake) water
volume and geotechnical parameters of
the lake as some of the major
constraints for successful execution of
the project. However, Mr. Gurung
added that the team will resort to other
alternatives. First alternative will be to
measure the size of boulders and then
calculate the discharge and peak flood
height, and the second alternative will
be to use subjective analysis by
collecting several closed spaced river
cross-section and calculate a reasonable flood scenario in the Chamkhar valley. The outcome of the
project will be disseminated to the all the stake holders through serious of workshops and
consultations at the end of the project, Mr. Gurung concluded.
(December 2007) Annexes
150
Mrs. Mihoko Kumamoto, representative from the UNDP-GEF head quarter, New York, presented
on “Global and Regional Perspective on Climate Change Adaptation”. The impact of change climate,
says Mrs. Kumamoto, is being felt through out the globe in form of glacial outbursts in the
Himalayas; flooding and inundation in plains of India and Bangladesh; disease range expansion and
drought and desertification in Africa; coral loss in Great Barrier Reef; hydrological changes and
ecosystem collapse in South America,
so on and so forth. She also highlighted
on implication of glacier melting in the
Himalayas resulting in increased
GLOF disaster; more flooding in the
short run and decrease in river flow in
the long run. Mrs. Kumamoto then
talked on the policy based approach
adapted by UNDP to safeguard MDGs
in the face of climate change and its
related impacts. She also informed the
participants on how to assess GEF
adaptation fund online. Further, Mrs.
Kumamoto elaborated on current
portfolio of UNDP-GEF Project in
operation world wide and on the
portfolio of PDF projects under implementation and under formulation in Asia. The GLOF project in
Bhutan is channeled through LDC fund, Mrs. Kumamoto said. The main objective of the soon to
start global project on Adaptation Learning Mechanism (ALM), says Mrs. Kumamoto, is to link
all ongoing projects online; capture and disseminate lessons learned widely; and develop guidance
materials and tools. Accordingly, Bhutan GLOF project will also be linked with the ALM, the
UNDP-GEF representative mentioned.
Mrs. Seeta Giri, UNDP Bhutan,
presented on the GLOF PDF B
implementation,
monitoring
and
evaluation. On the project background,
Mrs. Giri, talked briefly on the
National Adaptation Program of Action
(NAPA), National Disaster Risk
Management (NDRM), and National
Disaster Management program. She also
outlined on the PDF B project
implementation strategy, which includes
the role of the implementing agency, the
Department of Geology and Mines;
execution modality of UNDP NEX;
funding mechanism of UNDP-GEF and
NCAP; overall policy guidelines with
regard to Planning Commission Secretariat and its TOR; day to day monitoring and management of
the project; TOR for the Project Director and Project Manager. Mrs. Giri emphasized on the timely
(December 2007) Annexes
151
submission of quarterly financial and progress report, the project inception report and the preparation
of the GEF Full Scale Project (FSP). On the project implementation responsibility, Mrs. Giri
explained that outcome 1-3 of the project document will be carried out by DGM; outcome 4 and 5
will be executed by UNDP together with DADM, DLG, and DGM. Further, she mentioned that
logframe in the Project Document (Annex 4) with project objective, outcomes, outputs, and output
indicators will serve as basis for project monitoring and evaluation. Finally, on the suggestion made
by the Project Manager regarding procurement of field equipment, Mrs. Giri agreed to discuss the
matter with DADM and get back to the Project Manager.
The inception workshop concluded with closing address by the Director, Department of Geology and
Mines. The director congratulated the organizers of the workshop and thanked all the participants for
making their effort to attend the inception workshop.
Later in the afternoon, before departing to Thimphu, the participants made a short excursion to the
upstream of Pho-Chhu and vicinity of Punakha Dzong to have a close view of the 1994 GLOF
impact.
Stakeholder Consultation
“Reduce Climate Change-Induced Risks and Vulnerabilities
from Glacial Lake Outbursts in the Punakha-Wangdi and Chamkhar Valleys”
16 February 2007
Ministry of Trade and Industry
Thimphu, Bhutan
I. OBJECTIVES
1. Assess progress and compile information produced during the PDF-B “Reducing risks from
climate change-induced glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in Punakha-Wangdi Valley and
Chamkhar Valley” as inputs to the full-sized project (FSP) proposal
2. Review an outline of the FSP with relevant stakeholders from government agencies and other
organizations
3. Revise the PDF-B work plan and identify information gaps for formulating the FSP
II. KEY ACTIVITIES AND OUTCOMES
1. Assess progress and compile information produced during the PDF-B “Reducing risks from climate
change-induced glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in Punakha-Wangdi Valley and Chamkhar
Valley” as inputs to the full-sized project (FSP) proposal
For progress on the PDF-B outputs, see the attached table showing the status of the five outputs,
information available, and expected completion date of the activities. The information resulting from the
ongoing PDF activities must be incorporated as inputs for the FSP in order to produce a strong proposal.
The Department of Geology and Mines (DGM) expects the key activities to be completed by June 2007.
Below is a summary of the output status and the next steps that were agreed with DGM.
(December 2007) Annexes
152
Output 1: Compiled information on climate change and GLOFs
Completed.
Output 2: Hazard zonation and vulnerability mapping
 Punakha-Wangdi Valley: Karma at DGM is leading the team to map GLOF risk in this valley and
simultaneously consulting with the communities to assess their vulnerabilities. This activity is
carried out under the Netherlands Climate Adaptation Project (NCAP) and the field work will be
completed by June 2007.
Action. Although detailed vulnerability information will not be available until June, the
Department of Geology and Mines (DGM), Ministry of Trade and Industry, will provide a list of
communities in the Punakha-Wangdi Valley that are estimated to have a high GLOF risk. They
will provide this list by Friday, February 23rd, which will then be used to identify target
communities for the FSP activities.

Chamkhar Valley: Dowchu Drukpa, Project Manager, will lead the team to map GLOF risk in
this valley. The process of procuring the field equipment has delayed the start of this activity, but
DGM expects it to start in March.

On February 15th, the Project Manager and International Consultant (IC) visited Punakha and
Wangdi dzongkhags and met with the Dzongrabs to discuss community vulnerability and
upcoming consultations. Both Dzongrabs provided some information on the communities in their
districts.
Output 3: Early warning system (EWS) assessment
 Dorji Wangda, Director of DGM, visited Malaysia in January to learn about their early warning
systems.
Action. The Director will provide a report of his visit to Malaysia at the end of February,
including a recommendation of the sensors to use in the EWS.

A team of DGM staff are planning a study tour in March to assess EWS for GLOF hazards and
how the system may be adapted to Bhutan.
Action. The Project Manager is in touch with a professor in Italy and will discuss possible study
tour locations with him when he returns to his office on February 25th. The IC will also assist in
reviewing locations of GLOF early warning systems.

During the visit to Punakha and Wangdi, officials were informed that teams will hold local
consultations in March/April on the GLOF early warning system.
Output 4: Stakeholder mapping
Participants at the stakeholder meeting generally agreed on the roles and responsibilities for each of the
FSP outcomes. More detailed mapping at the intermediate (dzongkhag) and local (geog) levels will be
carried out during the vulnerability assessments and consultations to present the proposed early warning
system, which are expected to take place in April.
2. Review an outline of the FSP with relevant stakeholders from government agencies and other
organizations
The FSP outline was presented to members of the Project Steering Committee (PSC) at the meeting (see
attached participants list), along with remaining information gaps that are needed as input for the project
formulation. The outline included three outcomes:
(December 2007) Annexes
153
1. Capacity building for managing climate change-induced disaster risks
2. Artificial lowering of Lake Thorthormi
3. Installation of an early warning system for Punakha-Wangdi Valley
Key points from the discussion are as follows:

Participants from the National Environment Commission (NEC), the Department of Aid and Debt
Management (DADM), and DGM expressed their concern that activities under Outcome 1 would
duplicate activities covered under ongoing disaster risk management (DRM) programs
implemented by the Department of Local Governments (DLG), e.g. developing a policy and
legislative framework for DRM, compiling information on hazards and vulnerabilities, and
capacity building for local communities. Karma (DGM) further explained his concerns following
the meeting in an email to Karma Chogyal (UNDP).

NEC, DADM, and DGM suggested that the FSP focus on Outcomes 2 and 3 only. Any capacity
building activities required specifically for lowering the lake or the EWS could be moved from
Outcome 1 to Outcomes 2 and 3, which will be led by DGM.

UNDP noted that including Outcome 1 would help ensure that the project builds capacity in
Bhutan to address climate change-induced GLOF risks beyond lowering Thorthormi Lake and
installing the EWS in Punakha-Wangdi.

The DLG representative will discuss these points with his colleagues and provide additional input
on the FSP design to the Project Steering Committee.
3. Revise the PDF-B work plan and identify information gaps for formulating the FSP

See the attached work plan and table on status of PDF-B outputs resulting from discussions with
DGM, and stakeholder meeting presentation. UNDP may wish to consider extending the PDF-B
timeline in order to ensure the quality of outputs.

Regarding concerns on FSP Outcome 1 on DRM capacity building, UNDP reiterated the
importance of including this component and believes suitable arrangements can be found to
ensure smooth cross-sectoral coordination in implementing the activities.

Although there is insufficient information at this time—particularly on target communities and a
suitable EWS—to prepare a strong proposal for submission to GEF, the Resident Representative
and Deputy Resident Representative recommended that a draft be prepared for circulation within
UNDP to gain feedback on the additional information requirements.
III. MEETING PARTICIPANTS
Discussions were held with the following people:
1. Dorji Wangda, Director of DGM
2. Yeshi Dorji, Head of Geological Survey of Bhutan and Project Director, DGM
3. Dowchu Drukpa, Senior Geologist and Project Manager, DGM
4. Karma, Glaciologist, DGM
5. Tappo, Dzongrab, Punakha
6. Sangay Wangchhuk, Dzongrab, Wangdi Phodrang
7. Representative, Department of Energy (DOE)
8. Nicholas Rosellini, Resident Representative, UNDP
9. Toshihiro Tanaka, Deputy Resident Representative, UNDP
10. Doley Tshering, Program Officer, UNDP
11. Karma Chogyal, Program Associate, UNDP
(December 2007) Annexes
154
Participants at the stakeholder meeting, 16 February 2007:
1. Jambay Zangmo, DADM
8.
2. Jigme, NEC
9.
3. Tshering Wangchuk, DLG
10.
4. Tashi Dorjee, DOE
5. M.K. Pradhan, DGM
11.
6. T.P. Thapa, DGM
12.
7. Lalit Kumar Chetri, DGM
Karma, DGM
Dowchu Drukpa, DGM
Kristine Korsgaard, World Food
Programme
Karma Chogyal, UNDP
Vivian Raksakulthai, Consultant
IV. ANNEXES
1. Table showing PDF-B outputs, information available, and expected completion dates
2. Revised work plan
3. Stakeholder meeting presentation
(December 2007) Annexes
155
PDF-B Outputs – Status as of 16 February 2007
“Hazard Zonation and Early Warning System Assessment for GLOF-Vulnerable Areas of Punakha-Wangdi and Chamkhar Valleys”
Outputs
Output indicators
Activities
Status and Documentation
Expected Completion of
Ongoing Activities
Outcome 1: Compiled collection of baseline studies that analyze the threat of climate change and variability on Glacial Lakes in Bhutan
Output 1.1
Creation of a database
listing all available study
and project reports on
climate change induced
GLOF risks
Output 1.2
Identification of existing
gaps in climate
vulnerability studies
related to GLOFs
Presence of climate
change-induced
GLOF risk studies
and project reports
Gaps identified in
GLOF DRM and
climate change
impact studies
1.1.1 Database creation of all
studies and project
documents related to
GLOFs
1.1.1 Database at DGM in
MS Access. Printout
of list available in
pdf.
1.1.2 Make database available to
all relevant stakeholders
1.1.2 Stakeholders
informed of database
and relevant
information
requested during
stakeholder meeting
(16 Feb 2007)
1.2.1 Identification of existing
gaps in climate changeinduced GLOF hazard risk
studies
1.2.1 Gaps being
identified.
1.2.2 Identification of existing
gaps in feasibility studies of
“glacial lake artificial water
lowering”
1.2.3 Present findings to NAPA
team and NEC
1.2.2 Need more
information on
community
participation in lake
lowering.
Completed
1.2.1 20 February 07
1.2.2 Consultations
planned in
cooperation with
DLG, Ministry of
Home and Cultural
Affairs. March 07.
1.2.3 Findings presented
during stakeholder
meeting (16 Feb
2007)
Outcome 2: Hazard Zonation and Vulnerability Mapping for the Chamkhar valley and lower Punakha-Wangdi valley areas
Output 2.1
Community vulnerability
assessed through field
(December 2007) Annexes
Number of field
surveys and
community
consultations
2.1.1 Assess the field survey used
during hazard zonation of
the upper Punakha-Wangdi
valley in 2002. Upgrade
156
2.1.1 Procurement of
equipment for field
surveys ongoing.
Chamkhar expected
2.1.1 and 2.1.2
Chamkhar: May 07
Punakha: June 07
Outputs
Output indicators
Activities
Status and Documentation
Expected Completion of
Ongoing Activities
surveys, and community
consultations
conducted
and change to make suitable
to start in midfor the Chamkhar and lower
March. PunakhaPunakha-Wangdi valley
Wangdi field survey
areas and communities
20% completed.
2.1.2 Conduct extensive
2.1.2 Interviews expected
interviews with
to start in Chamkhar
communities to understand
in mid-March.
vulnerabilities existing in
Ongoing in Punakha.
the two valleys
2.1.3 Chamkhar expected
2.1.3 Process data collected from
to start in April.
field surveys and
Ongoing in Punakha
community consultations
2.1.3 Chamkhar: May/Jun
07
Punakha: Dec 07
Output 2.2
Number of staff
trained in various
aspects of GLOF
related DRM
2.2.1 DGM staff to participate in
regional/international
scientific and study
workshops related to GLOF
and natural disasters
2.2.1 Plan to send DGM
staff for participation
in workshops on
impacts of climate
change.
2.2.1 Workshops from
April 07-Jan 08 (from
NCAP co-financing)
2.2.2 Conduct study trips and
collaborations with other
countries with GLOF
disasters
2.2.2 Plan to bring in a
flood modelling
expert in
DAMBREAK to
train DGM staff. Plan
study tour for climate
change adaptation in
Southeast Asia.
2.3.1 Training of DGM staff in
remote sensing and GIS
application for capacity
building
2.3.2 Procure relevant satellite
images and software and
2.3.1 DGM staff member
to attend GIS training
in Nepal (19 Feb-23
Mar 2007)
2.3.2 Procured satellite
images and already
Staff trained in GLOF
hazard risk related issues
Output 2.3
Remote sensing and GIS
data of the two valley
areas, produced and
maintained
(December 2007) Annexes
Quality of remote
sensing and GIS
data produced
157
2.2.2 DAMBREAK
training Mar-Apr 07.
Study tour Sep 07
(NCAP co-financing
for adaptation study
tour)
2.3.1 March 07
2.3.2 Field equipment
procured by
March/April 07.
2.3.3 Chamkhar May 07.
Punakha June 07.
Outputs
Output indicators
Activities
field equipment for
processing GIS data and
build institutional capacity
2.3.3 Collate all remote sensing
data and establish a GLOF
information system within
the DGM
Output 2.4
Data analyzed and hazard
zonation maps produced
for the two valley areas
Production of
hazard zonation and
vulnerability
assessment Maps
Status and Documentation
Expected Completion of
Ongoing Activities
have software. May
also procure
additional needed
software. Procuring
field equipment.
2.3.3 Cross-checking
satellite images with
field data.
2.4.1 Analysis of field surveys,
community consultations
and GIS data undertaken
and combined together
2.4.1 Ongoing in Punakha.
2.4.2 Maps produced for the two
valley areas that provide
information about
topography, slope stability,
geology, hydro-geology,
socio-economy, and land
use and cover
2.4.3 Presentation of Maps to
Policy and Planning
Divisions of relevant line
ministries
2.4.3 Following map
production
2.4.2 Not yet started in
Chamkhar or
Punakha.
2.4.1 Chamkhar: May 07
Punakha: Nov 07
2.4.2 Chamkhar: Jun 07
Punakha: Dec 07
2.4.3 Chamkhar: end Jun
07.
Punakha: Jan 08
Outcome 3: Assessment of most suitable Early Warning System for GLOF threat in Punakha-Wangdi valley completed
Output 3.1
Comparative assessment of
Early Warning Systems
(EWS) in operation in
other countries with
Bhutan-like geophysical
conditions
(December 2007) Annexes
Quality of EWS
assessment with
specific focus on the
requirements of the
entire PunakhaWangdi valley
3.1.1 Assessments of EWS
conducted focusing on
technological capabilities,
economic installation and
maintenance feasibility, and
overall best fit for the
Punakha-Wangdi
158
3.1.1 DGM Director
visited Malaysia for
EWS study Jan 07.
DGM identifying
GLOF-affected
country with EWS
for planned study
3.1.1 Study tour planned
for March 07.
3.1.2 Malaysia report (end
Feb 2007); EWS
recommendations,
Apr 07
Outputs
Output indicators
Activities
community needs for
GLOF disaster management
3.1.2 Presentation of a report
noting findings and making
recommendations for the
installation of an EWS
made by the DGM to
partner institutions
Output 3.2
GLOF-related hazards and
risks in Punakha-Wangdi
valley areas assessed
Necessary use of
community
consultations and
field surveys made
3.2.1 GLOF hazard risks and
other climatic-risks assessed
to determine the location,
types and quantities of
automatic sensors, alarms
and personnel stations in the
Punakha-Wangdi valley
Status and Documentation
Expected Completion of
Ongoing Activities
tour.
3.1.2 DGM Director
preparing report on
Malaysia findings.
Study tour
participants will
prepare
recommendations for
Bhutan GLOF EWS
for Punakha-Wangdi
valleys.
3.2.1 Field assessment will
take place after study
tour.
3.2.1 April 07
Outcome 4: Implementation Plan for the FSP
Output 4.1
All national stakeholders
mapped that would be
involved in implementing
a FSP in Bhutan
Number of
stakeholders
identified
4.1.1 The Department of Local
4.1.1 Information
Governance to conduct a
requested from DLG
mapping of all stakeholders,
at stakeholder
necessary for
meeting 16 Feb 2007.
implementation of the FSP
at the national,
intermediate, and local
levels
4.1.1 April 07
Output 4.2
Number of
4.2.1 Study of all institutional
arrangements, necessary for
4.2.1 - 4.2.3 May 07
(December 2007) Annexes
159
4.2.1 Overall institutional
arrangements
Outputs
Institutional arrangement
for FSP implementation at
the national, intermediate
(Dzongkhags) and local
(Geog) level, especially in
the Punakha-Wangdi
valley
Output indicators
Activities
Institutions studied
implementation of the FSP
at the national, intermediate
and local levels
4.2.2 Identify the lead and
collaborative agencies at
different government levels
for FSP implementation
4.2.3 Identify gaps within
institutions in order to
strengthen and build
capacity of key agencies
responsible for carrying out
the FSP activities
Status and Documentation
Expected Completion of
Ongoing Activities
identified. Detailed
responsibilities for
FSP activities to be
identified.
4.2.2 Will be identified
during PSC meetings
4.2.3 Will be identified
during PSC meetings
Outcome 5: FSP Executive Summary document and the UNDP Project Document
Output 5.1
FSP Executive Summary
developed
Output 5.2
UNDP Project Document
developed for submission
to the GEFSEC
(December 2007) Annexes
Quality of the
produced document
5.1.1 A FSP Executive Summary
produced that outlines the
goal, objective, and
outcomes of the FSP along
with the relevant
stakeholders, sustainability,
replicability and financial
mechanism for project
funding
5.1.1 First draft in progress
5.1.1 31 March 07 (first
draft)
Quality of produced
document
5.2.1 UNDP project document
outlining work undertaken
during the PDF stage with a
strong emphasis on
monitoring and evaluation
5.2.1 First draft in progress
5.2.1 31 March 07 (first
draft)
160
Revised Work Plan
“Hazard Zonation and Early Warning System Assessment for GLOF-Vulnerable Areas of Punakha-Wangdi and Chamkhar Valleys”
Activities for Feb 2007 – Jan 2008
F
1
Outcome 1: Compiled collection of baseline studies
that analyze the threat of climate change and
variability on Glacial Lakes in Bhutan
(completed)
Outcome 2: Hazard Zonation and Vulnerability
Mapping for the Chamkhar valley and lower
Punakha-Wangdi valley areas
2.1.1 Field survey for the Chamkhar Valley areas and
communities
Field survey for the lower Punakha-Wangdi Valley
areas and communities (with NCAP co-financing)
2.1.2 Conduct extensive interviews with communities to
understand vulnerabilities (NCAP in PunakhaWangdi)
2.1.3 Process data collected from Chamkhar field
surveys and community consultations
Process data collected from Punakha-Wangdi field
surveys and community consultations (NCAP)
2.2.1 DGM staff participate in workshops related to
GLOF and natural disasters (with NCAP)
2.2.2 Conduct study trips and collaborations with other
countries with GLOF disasters (with NCAP)
2.3.1 Training of DGM staff in remote sensing and GIS
application for capacity building
2.3.2 Procure relevant satellite images and software and
field equipment for processing GIS data
2.3.3 Collate all remote sensing data and establish a
GLOF information system within the DGM (with
(December 2007) Annexes
161
M
2
1
A
2
1
M
2
1
J
2
1
J
2
1 2
A
1
S
2
1 2 1
O
N
2
1
D
2
1
2
J
1
Activities for Feb 2007 – Jan 2008
NCAP)
2.4.1 Analysis of Chamkhar field surveys, community
consultations and GIS data
Analysis of Punakha-Wangdi field surveys,
community consultations and GIS data (NCAP)
2.4.2 Maps produced for the two valley areas that
provide information about topography, slope
stability, geology, hydro-geology, socio-economy,
and land use and cover (with NCAP)
2.4.3 Presentation of Maps to Policy and Planning
Divisions of relevant line ministries
Outcome 3: Assessment of most suitable Early
Warning System for GLOF threat in PunakhaWangdi valley completed
3.1.1 Assessments of EWS for the Punakha-Wangdi
community (including study tour)
3.1.2 Report (Malaysia visit) and report/presentation
(study tour) noting findings and recommendations
for the EWS made by the DGM to partner
institutions
3.2.1 GLOF hazard risks and other climatic-risks
assessed to determine the location, types and
quantities of automatic sensors, alarms and
personnel stations
Outcome 4: Implementation Plan for the FSP
4.1.1 The Department of Local Governance to conduct a
mapping of all stakeholders, necessary for
implementation of the FSP at the national,
intermediate, and local levels
4.2.1 Study of all institutional arrangements, necessary
for implementation of the FSP at the national,
intermediate and local levels
(December 2007) Annexes
162
F
M
A
M
J
J
C C C
A
S
O
N
D
P
C
J
P
P
P
Activities for Feb 2007 – Jan 2008
4.2.2 Identify the lead and collaborative agencies at
different government levels for FSP
implementation
4.2.3 Identify gaps within institutions in order to
strengthen and build capacity of key agencies
responsible for carrying out the FSP activities
Outcome 5: FSP Executive Summary document and
the UNDP Project Document
5.1.1 A FSP Executive Summary produced that outlines
the goal, objective, and outcomes of the FSP along
with the relevant stakeholders, sustainability,
replicability and financial mechanism for project
funding
5.2.1 UNDP project document outlining work
undertaken during the PDF stage with a strong
emphasis on monitoring and evaluation
C = Chamkhar Valley
P = Punakha-Wangdi Valley
(December 2007) Annexes
163
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
DGM-UNDP/GEF GLOF Project
Stakeholder Workshop
September 27, 2007
DGM Conference Hall, Thimphu, Bhutan
The objective of this workshop was to present the PDF-B activities and its status and the draft proposal of
the Full Scale Project (FSP) to stakeholders in Bhutan. The workshop was attended by the following
participants:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
Toshihiro Tanaka, Dy. Resident Representative, UNDP
Junko Taguchi, UNV Program Officer, UNDP
Gernot Laganda, Regional Technical Advisor, UNDP
Doley Tshering, NPO, UNDP
Karma Chogyal, Program Associate, UNDP
Anjana Giri, NC, UNDP-GEF
Karma Tenzin, PO, World Wildlife Fund
Vivian Raksakulthai, Full Scale Project (FSP) Consultant
Karma Rabten, Dy. Chief Environment Officer, NEC
Tshering Tashi, Chief Environment Officer, NEC
Thinley Namgyel, Sr. Environment Officer, NEC
Gyembo Dorji, PO, DoPH, MoH
C. Norbu, Director, DoA/MoF
Tenzin Wangmo, PO, Planning Commission
Jambay Zangmo, PO, Planning Commission
Karma Jamtsho, Engineer, DUDES
N.K. Giri, Engineer, DoR
Salvadev Thapa, Sr. Planning Officer, Wangdi Dzongkhag
Pema Wangda, BO, Punakha Dzongkhag
Karma Doma Tshering, Sr. Program Officer, MoHCA
Dorji Wangda, Director, DGM
Yeshi Dorji, Specialist, DGM
Tashi Tshering, Geologist, DGM
Lalit Chettri, GIS Specialist, DGM
Karma, Sr. Geologist, DGM
Ugyen Thinley, Survey Officer, DGM
Dowchu Dukpa, Sr. Geologist, DGM
Mr. Dorji Wangda, Director, DGM, welcomed the participants and thanked them for attending the
workshop.
Mr. Toshihiro Tanaka, Dy. Resident Representative, UNDP, gave the opening address by introducing the
topic by stating that climate change has become a top issue, not only for scientists, but also for politicians.
He also remarked that the National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) has identified Disaster
Management as an important component, which also includes Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF).
Climate change could have significant impacts in Bhutan as major settlements are along river valleys and
the economy is dependent on water resources. Pho Chu, which experienced GLOF in 1957, 1967, and
1994) and Chamkhar Chu are most vulnerable to GLOF. The project is target to capacity building,
mitigation of GLOF hazards and early warning system establishment in Bhutan.
(December 2007) Annexes
164
Mr. Tanaka also mentioned that the project is a result of constant effort by DGM, DLG, Planning
Commission, UNDP, and GEF and will provide meaningful lessons learned that can be replicated in other
river basins in the country. He also expressed his wishes for successful completion of PDF-B project.
Mr. Dowchu Dukpa, Project Manger of the DGM-UNDP/GEF GLOF Project presented on the PDF-B
activities and its status. The Project Manger informed the floor that the project management has
successfully completed all the technical activities of the PDF which include assessment of technical Early
Warning System (EWS) in the Punakha-Wangdi valley and GLOF hazard zonation and vulnerability
mapping in the Chamkhar valley; the Full Size Project (FSP) implementation plan will be developed
through
a
concerted
dialogue between key stakeholders in October 2007. He, however, stated that the hazard zonation in
Chamkhar valley was constrained by lack of lake water volume in headwaters of Chamkhar Chhu and
unavailability of past GLOF documentation in the study area. The Project Manger also submitted to the
participants that so far the management has spent about USD 101,000.00 (Nu. 4.36 million) out of
allocated budget of USD 160,000.00 (Nu. 6.92 million) for the implementing agency-the Department of
Geology and Mines. On the unspent balance budget of USD 59,000.00 (Nu. 2.5 million), the members
agreed to hold a separate Project Steering Committee (PSC) meeting to discuss on how to best utilize the
balance fund.
Mrs. Vivian Raksakulthai, the FSP consultant, presented the draft proposal of the FSP project. The
objective of the projects is “to reduce climate change induced risks of GLOFs in Punakha-Wangdi and
Chamkhar valleys. To fulfill this objective, fours outcomes are proposed.
The first outcome is “improved national, regional, and local capacities to prevent climate change-induced
GLOF disasters in the Punakha-Wangdi and Chamkhar valleys”. The participants expressed a need to
refine this outcome and therefore a meeting among stakeholders was scheduled on Tuesday, October 2,
2007 at UNDP conference hall.
The second outcome is “Artificial lowering system of Thorthormi lake waters implemented”. The
comments for this outcome are: (1) inclusion of safety component involved with lower the lake level, (2)
the need to revisit engineering designs done in the past, as situations could have change since the study,
(3) to specify who is providing the work force (by Department of Local Governance or local
government) for smooth operation during implementation of the project; the need to provide monetary
benefits for workers was also stressed, (4) whether the need to lower the level by 5 m as proposed was
scientifically approved, (5) to conduct Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) and involve park managers
since the project will be conducted in a national park, and (6) involve schools and government agencies
located in the project area.
The third outcome is “A GLOF early warning system for the Punakha-Wangdi valley operational and
maintained”. For dissemination of information from the early warning system, it was suggested to include
production of videos, publications including information and communication technology (ICT). In
addition, the project should also leave provisions for low tech systems such as acoustic sirens, should
other infrastructure such as radio links be destroyed by the other related events such as earthquakes. To
avoid duplication, the participants also raised the question of coordination issue to be settled with the
Department of Energy for implementation, monitoring, and maintenance of the early warning system.
The fourth outcome is “learning, evaluation, and adaptive management”, which will be implemented by
UNDP.
During the concluding session of the workshop, the participants were informed about the project website
(http://www.mti.gov.bt/dgm/DGM-UNDPGEF/main.html).
(December 2007) Annexes
165
(December 2007) Annexes
166
(December 2007) Annexes
167
ANNEX 10: BUDGET NOTES
OUTCOME 1: Improved national, regional, and local capacities to prevent climate change-induced
GLOF disasters in the Punakha-Wangdi and Chamkhar Valleys. To enhance the capacity of
communities and local disaster management committees in Punakha, Wangdi and Chamkhar valleys on
climate induced disaster risk reduction a number of activities need to be conducted both by DGM (for
technical input) and DMD (overall coordination) as follows:
1.1 Hire of vehicle is necessary as DGM requires a dedicated project vehicle to make project related
travel, however the DGM currently has only 5 vehicles shared by 2 Divisions and 151 staff. A total of
$2,500 in years 1 and 2; $3,000 in year 3 and $4,000 in year 4 are budgeted
1.2 Training materials / guidelines need to be developed, printed, and disseminated to raise awareness on
GLOF and other climate risks. The cost of printing and publication will be charged to the GEF
contribution ($38,000)
1.3 The DMD will require the services of an international consultant to help with the drafting of the bylaws for the disaster management committees and development of local disaster management plans,
development of guidelines to integrate climate risk information into sectoral plans at the district and
gewog levels and development of training module on climate change resilient DRM. Contribution from
GEF for this would be $40,000 in the first year ($400 X 60 days = 24,000; per diem $150 x 60 days =
9,000; air fare and related expenses $3,500 X 1 pax X 2 times = 7,000)
1.4 Under this outcome the budget head travel relates to the hire of vehicles, payment of DSA for
community members while on cross-study visits. This budget line will also cover the cost of DMD staff
to make international travel for trainings on mainstreaming disaster risk reduction, managing climateinduced disasters etc in the region. A total budget of $63,500 has been budgeted, spread over years 2, 3,
and 4.
1.5 Supplies include purchase of stationary and other materials for participatory exercises that will be
carried out as a result of developing disaster management plans and other exercises. A total budget of
$6,000 has been budgeted for this spread over years 1, 2, 3, and 4.
1.6 During the various training and consultative workshops on climate resilient disaster risk management
at the local level, documentation of the process for future replication will be done hiring the services of a
audio-visual firm. In addition to the co-financing an estimated budget of $1,500 has been budgeted for the
activity for years 1, 2, and 3 in the project.
1.7 As an LDC, the government is not in a position to bear the expenses incurred for the logistical
arrangements necessary for communities’ meetings, consultative workshops and various trainings. In
addition to the in-kind co-financing from the government these will have to be met from the project. A
total budget of $84,000 has been budgeted based on the following rough estimate: 60 participants x $52 x
3 locations x 3 districts x 3 times (1 each in years 1, 2, and 3).
1.8 This item relates to the production of audio-visual extension materials on climate change, climate
change risks, and glacial lake outburst flood awareness on the themes of education for awareness and risk
reduction. It would entail procurement of services of a local firm to undertake the task. A total cost
estimate excluding staff time of $50,000 will be spread over the period of the project.
OUTCOME 2: Reduced risks of GLOF from Thorthormi Lake through an artificial lake level
management system. The actual mitigation of the threat of the GLOF from Thorthomi (one of the most
(December 2007) Annexes
168
hazardous lakes in the country) will involve artificially lowering the lake level. Given the very difficult
conditions, high labour requirement and other difficulties, most of the project budget (both GEF funds
and co-financing) will be expended for this outcome.
2.1 Contractual services under this outcome refer to the payment of wages for labour. All engineering and
excavation work at the site has to be completely done manually by hired labour as it is not possible for
machines such as drillers, pumps, etc. to work due to both logistical reasons and for limitations imposed
by the very cold climate and high altitude. Some labour requirements are predicted for developing the
engineering and safety plan at the site. A total of $14,400 has been budgeted for this following a very
rough estimate for labour wages which will be exceptionally high to attract enough labourers at the site
(in view of the difficult working conditions) as following: 46 pax x $5 x 63 days = $14,490.
2.2. Travel budget under this output relates to the budget kept aside for covering extensive field travel of
staff from not only the DGM but also from other agencies such as Department of Energy, Department of
Engineering Services (Ministry of Works and Human Settlement) and the National Environment
Commission in the first year during the work on developing the engineering and safety plan. In addition
to the co-financing from these agencies (RGOB) a total amount of $8,085 has been budgeted for this
activity as follows: $35 x 7 pax x 33 days = $8085.
2.3 Transportation of equipment, personnel effects and logistical items for the team moving to the lake
site for the engineering and safety plan has to be done with the use of ponies and porters. A total budget
of $2,640 is budgeted as follows: 16 ponies x 22 days x $7.5 = 2,640
2.4 During the mission on preparing the engineering and safety plan, the team needs to be supported with
provisions such as medical supplies, ration, and cooking fuel (kerosene and gas). For this a lump sum
amount of $3,000 has been budgeted.
2.5 Artificial lowering of the lake will be done by hired laborers guided on-site by a team of professionals
from DGM and other partners in all four years of the project. A total budget of $1,301,460 has been
budgeted for this activity as per the following breakdown (e.g. first year):
[(300 laborers + 3 overseer) x $5 x 22 days journey = 33,330 plus 300 x $7.5 x 122 =274,500 plus 3
overseers x $12.5 x 122 days = 4,575 plus store helper staff - 12 pax x 144 days x $7.5 = 12,960] =
$325,365. In addition up to 100 more laborers would be mobilized through co-financing.
2.6 A team consisting of the following: 1 Civil Engineer: Department of Roads, MoWHS; 1 medical
doctor: Ministry of Health; 1 Basic health worker: Ministry of Health; 1 person from arm force for
security: 1 Royal Bhutan Army; 1 wireless operator; 1 dzongkhag representative: 1 Gasa Dzongkhag; 1
accountant: Ministry of Finance; 5 from DGM will travel be on-site through out the implementation of
the artificial lowering of the lake. In addition to RGOB co-financing for their salary, travel, and DSA will
be met from the project for these personnel as follows:
[On the way: 12 staff x $38 x 22 days = 10,032 + 1 Specialist from DGM $67 X 22 days = 1,474; + At
the site: 12 staff x $36 x 122 days = 52,704 + 1 specialist x $56 x 30 days = 1,680] = $65,890. This
calculation was done for years 1 and 2.
In the 3rd and 4th years, this budget also includes provision for international travel by DGM and other
related organization staff for training and workshop attendance on mainstreaming disaster risk reduction,
natural disaster management, and adaptation to climate change in the region. Additional costs projected
include airfare, administrative costs, and per diem for participants. For instance in the 3rd year [airfare for
(December 2007) Annexes
169
5 pax = $1,500 x 5 = 7,500; fees etc. for 5 pax x $800 = 4,000; DSA for 5 pax x 10 days x $150 = 7,500
plus incidental allowances for 5 pax x $200 = 1,000] = $20,000.
2.7 Transportation of equipment, personnel effects, and logistical items for the team moving to the lake
site for the actual mitigation will have to be done with the hiring of ponies/yaks. A total budget of
$120,285 is budgeted as follows: 243 ponies x 66 days x $7.5 = $120,285. In the second, third, and fourth
years most of the equipment can be stored on-site, which will entail lower transportation costs.
2.8 For the lake lowering activity, equipment such GIS/GPS, computers, peripherals, and camping items
such as tents and sleeping bags need to be procured. A total of $44,427 has been budgeted for this from
the GEF contribution as follows: [equipment $39,375 + camping gear $5,052] = $44,427. A small
amount of $1,010 has been budgeted for any additional procurement of equipment that may arise in the
succeeding years, and co-financing will also contribute to these items.
2.9 As most of the work of lowering the lake will entail manual excavation, implements such as spades,
pickaxes, shovels, crowbars, etc. will be procured. In addition other equipments such as work dress,
raincoats, gumboots, caps, gloves, hard boats, safety helmets, etc. will need to procured and distributed to
the workers. For this a total budget of $30,000 has been budgeted in the first year as follows: [implements
$12,000 + uniform items $18,000] = $30,000. Uniform items will need to be purchased every year and
distributed.
2.10 Telephone charges, fax, email, and other connectivity charges for the project management team of
$1,500 are budgeted for all years.
2.11 Supplies include stationary, computer consumables such as CDs, floppy discs, etc. for the project
management team. A budget of $1,250 for the first two years increasing to $5,746 and $6,250 in the 3rd
and 4th years as more information are generated from the project that needs to be disseminated.
2.12 As the project will not expend resources for the purchase of a vehicle, existing DGM vehicles will
need to be used and maintained. In addition a number of transit stores will need to be maintained / rented.
To meet these costs a budget of $10,381 in the first two years and $14,381 and $15,000 has been
estimated. The increase in the later years is expected due to expected increase in vehicle usage as various
workshops and learning meetings will be conducted during these years.
2.13 The project is expected to generate significant lessons and technical results as a result of actual field
implementation. These will need to be discussed, analyzed, and fed back into similar up-scaling activities
in the country. As such documentation and publication of lessons, challenges, and problems are critical.
For this a total budget of $3,000 and $10,000 has been estimated in the third and fourth years.
2.14 Miscellaneous items refers to group insurance of workers, catering and stationery cost for the
conduct of dissemination, steering committee meetings, and others. A total of $18,755 has been budgeted
with more towards the latter part of the project corresponding with the expected increase in frequency of
meetings / workshops.
2.15 In many of the budget estimates made above, it is not possible to come up with accurate figures. For
instance the estimate used for transportation with ponies was based on the pony rate for 2006. A
contingency amount of $8,000 for the first three years of the project and $10,500 for the fourth year has
been budgeted to account for unexpected increases in costs.
Outcome 3: Reduced human and material losses in vulnerable communities in the PunakhaWangdi Valley through GLOF early warnings.
(December 2007) Annexes
170
3.1 Contractual services: for the transportation of EWS equipments and other related materials to the sites
of EWS installation, hired labor will need to be mobilized as the proposed sites are away from roads. For
this a total budget of $6,188 has been estimated.
3.2 Travel: In the first year the estimated budget of $5,000 will cover the costs of travel for DGM and
other concerned staff to the EWS sites and for working on-station at these sites. Increased amounts in the
subsequent years will also cover international travel for the DGM and other relevant institution staff to
share lessons, learn from others in international workshops etc. In the final year the budget also includes
provision for training of staff including local government officials who will be stationed at the EWS sites
on the operation and maintenance of the EWS systems.
3.3 Contractual services: This item relates to the actual awarding of work to private construction firms
either national or from the region based on available expertise and capacity for the construction of the
EWS towers and related infrastructure. A detailed engineering estimate for this has been attached in
Annex 4 of the project document titled “Assessment of early warning systems in Punakha-Wangdi
valley”.
3.4 Equipment: This item refers to the procurement of EWS sensors, siren systems and allied equipment
for installation in four siren locations. A budget of $136,186 has been estimated.
3.5 Communication equipment: this relates to the procurement of radio and allied communication
equipment for the EWS in the Punakha-Wangdi Valley. A total budget of $156,240 has been estimated.
3.6 Supplies: A total budget of $10,000 spread across the four years has been estimated to account for the
purchase of stationery for the EWS component.
3.7 Information Technology Equipment: This item refers to the procurement of computers, accessories,
and software to operate the EWS.
3.8 Audio visual and printing cost: The whole process of EWS installation, test runs, and drills will be
documented using audio-visual equipment. The budget estimated ($20,000) will cover production costs.
3.9 Miscellaneous: There will be a number of workshops conducted for local communities, DGM and
other institution staff and local government officials on the installation, operation and maintenance of the
EWS. A total budget of $8,000 has been budgeted for this activity to cover catering, stationery, and other
costs.
3.10 International consultant: The Disaster Management Division will require the services of an
international consultant for the design and development of information and communication materials
related to the EWS and integrated community hazard management. Two time inputs for an international
consultant have been budgeted as follows: airfare ($1,750 x 2) + fees ($600 x 17.5 days = $10,500) +
DSA in-country ($100 x 10 days = 1000) = $15,000 x 2 = $30,000.
3.11 Travel: For the community trainings and awareness workshops that would be conducted as part of
the EWS establishment, community members, local government officials and technical staff from DGM,
DMD and other agencies will be paid DSA to cover their costs. As such, a total of $22,000 in the last two
years is estimated as follows: [$17 x 54 participants x 2 locations x 3 days x 2 times in a year] = $11,016.
3.12 Supplies: Purchase of stationery and workshop materials for the awareness workshops on EWS and
mock drills. A budget of $2,000 in the last two years of the project.
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3.13 Miscellaneous: A total of 7 community workshops will be conducted in Punakha-Wangdi and
Chamkhar valleys. Costs under this include catering costs, hire of workshop facilities etc. A total of
$40,040 has been budgeted for this activity as follows: 54 participants x 3 days x $30 x 7 workshops =
$34,020 + hire of workshop facilities $860 x 7 = $6,020] = $40,040.
3.14 AV and printing: Manuals and materials for community awareness and training workshops will be
developed and published on EWS. A total cost of $25,000 has been estimated for the last two years of the
project.
3.15 Contractual services: Around 4 evacuation sites will be identified where communities can escape in
the event of a flood. These sites need to be cleared of all hindering vegetation cover, construct pathways
for easier access (particularly for the elderly), and develop signage for easier navigation. This would be
contracted out to a private firm. A total estimate of $40,000 is budgeted.
Outcome 4: Enhanced learning, evaluation and adaptive management
4.1 Most of the learning, evaluation, and adaptive management will be charged to the co-financing and
managed by the UNDP CO. However the Disaster Management Division, being the national focal agency
for disaster management activities in the country expressed interest to lead the conduct of an international
workshop on GLOF and climate risk towards the end of the project to facilitate maximum cross learning.
For this a total budget of $20,000 has been estimated.
Outcome 5: Monitoring and Evaluation
5.1 Travel relates to the travel of the Project Steering Committee members and other stakeholders to the
project areas to assess first hand the progress of the project. No monitoring cost of UNDP has been
charged to the project. Travel budget estimated for travel of the international consultant for years 2 and 4
will cover in-country travel of the consultants.
5.2 Two international consultants will need to be hired to conduct the mid-term and final evaluation of the
project. For this a total budget of $15,000 each in the second and fourth year has been estimated.
5.3 Two local consultants will need to be hired along with the international consultants for the mid term
and final evaluations of the project. For this $15,000 ($7,500x2) is budgeted.
5.4 Miscellaneous: This will cover the costs of holding workshops to present the findings of the mid-term
and final evaluations to a range of stakeholders. A total of $5,000 ($2,500x 2) has been budgeted for this.
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ANNEX 11: ADAPTATION LEARNING MECHANISM: LESSONS LEARNED NOTE – PPG
PHASE
Completed by: UNDP Bhutan CO
Date: October 2007
Please complete all questions that are relevant to the project, give examples, and respond in up to
250 words per question. With questions, contact: Jennifer.frankel-reed@undp.org. Many thanks
for your input.
Project title: Reduce Climate change-induced risks and vulnerabilities from glacial lake outbursts in the
Punakha-Wangdi and Chamkhar valleys PIMS: 3722
Execution
1. What forums and methods for stakeholder participation were employed? What were the motives of
stakeholders for taking part in the project? Describe any challenges to meaningfully engaging
stakeholders and their solutions.
- The project employed various consultative workshops and project steering committee meetings for
stakeholder participation. As the project is nationally executed, the Department of Geology & Mines
(DGM) under the Ministry of Trade and Industry was the principle implementing agency for the project.
The DGM was mainly responsible for delivering outcome 1, 2 and 3. For outcome 1 DGM took the lead
with close cooperation from the National Environment Commission (NEC), the national focal agency for
climate change. For outcome 2, the DGM collaborated with the Punakha, Wangdi and Chamkhar District
Administration and the local communities. For outcome 4 and 5, UNDP took the lead in close
consultation with GEF OFP, Department of Local Governance (nodal agency for DM, NEC, DGM, and
the donors providing co-financing. Coordination among the stakeholders poses a great challenge.
The various government agencies mentioned above have in their mandate to work on the project: NEC as
the focal agency for all environmental activities; DGM has the mandate for GLOF and floods mitigation
work; the DLG coordinates all development activities at the district and gewog levels; the communities
participate because they will be the worst affected in the event a GLOF occurs.
Involving multiple-stakeholders is inherently difficult. It was challenging for the project team to bring
together the various actors for the consultative discussions as the literacy levels of the various actors
particularly the communities is not at the level of the other stakeholders. Besides such multi-stakeholder
meetings take time to organize and are costly.
2. What institutional arrangements for carrying out the PDF were particularly successful or challenging?
List any innovative partnerships that were formed through the process.
- The monitoring and evaluation strategy, Management arrangements, Log frame, work plan are some of
the institutional arrangements that were particularly successful.
Especially through the Management arrangement, so many stakeholders were brought together to address
one crucial issue.
Capacity
3. What types of capacity were found to be most important for project development? What expertise,
resources, and other contributions were critical to making the team effective? What skills or expertise
were lacking?
- One of the capacity that was found to be most important for project development is for the stakeholder
to have an adequate knowledge and understanding about the climate change-induced disaster impacts as
well as climate change-induced DRM.
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In order to make the team effective, the team should comprise of technical people with good knowledge
about collection of data on topography, slope stability, geology, hydrogeology, socio-economy and land
use. They should also have good knowledge about remote sensing and GIS application as well as
adequate knowledge about climate change-induced disaster impacts and climate change-induced DRM.
The team should also be well equipped with the required equipments as well as funds.
Lack of equipments and adequate knowledge as well as good coordination mechanism were lacking.
4. Has the project development process resulted in improvements of capacity among parties involved?
Were any opportunities for capacity building missed?
- Yes, The project development process had resulted in improvement of capacity among parties involved.
Through the project, two staffs from DGM were trained in remote sensing and GIS application. the DGM
staffs also went to Norway to carry out an assessment of an integrated EWS, focusing on technological
capabilities, economic installation, maintenance feasibilities and overall best fit for Bhutan. Field
equipments like Total station survey equipment and laptop were also procured.
Resources for project development
5. What were the most useful sources of climate change and related information utilized in project
design? What information gaps arose?
- The most useful source of climate change and related information utilised in project design were from
NAPA document, National Communication, Inventory of Glaciers, Glacial Lakes and GLOF in Bhutan,
prepared by a team of Bhutanese experts with colloboration with ICIMOD, Report of the detailed field
assessment carried out in the headwaters of the Pho chhu sub basin by a team of experts from DGM and
the Institute of Geology of the University of Vienna and finally the National Disaster Risk Management
Framework of Bhutan.
The gap that arose was though the hazard zonation for the Chamkar Chhu basin was carried out under the
project, there were lack of information regarding the Glacial lakes in Bumthang as no detailed assessment
like determining the volume of the water in the lake was carried out. It was also identifed that there were
no Community based Disaster Management Plan in place for the vulnerable communities along the two
basins.
6. How was the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) and/or National Communication (NC)
utilized in formulating the project, and how could these documents have been more useful?
- This project has emerged from the recently concluded NAPA process in Bhutan. The methodology used
to develop the NAPA was a widely consultative process involving stakeholders at the national and
regional levels. Senior and mid-level professionals representing a wide range of stakeholders –
agriculture, forestry, livestock, environment, roads, health, geology and mines, finance, planning, and
home affairs – participated in numerous workshops and training sessions held to develop NAPA project
priorities and profiles. A NAPA task force, with representation from five key sectors, was created from
amongst the stakeholders. This multidisciplinary NAPA task force deliberated at each step of the NAPA
formulation process starting with inception training workshops to familiarization of the process to
national and regional consultations and, finally, prioritization or ranking of project options for developing
project profiles.
Regional consultations were held at Phuntsholing, Lobeysa, Bumthang and Trashigang covering all 20
dzongkhags (districts). At these consultations, a group of cross sector representatives from each districts
(including local community leaders, namely village heads or block heads and Chimis or peoples
representatives) attended and deliberated on the range of anticipated climate change vulnerabilities and
adaptation options presented by the task force members.
Taking into consideration all the different dimensions of climate vulnerability, the NAPA process in
Bhutan recommended a disaster management strategy as their top priority, followed by lowering of the
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waters of the Thorthormi Lake to mitigate the immediate threat posed by the Thorthormi Lake as the
second priority.
7. How was the Adaptation Policy Frameworks (APF) guidance used to guide project development?
What was most/least useful in this guidance and how could APF resources be improved?
The APF helped the project team to identify barriers to adaptation in the case of GLOFs in Bhutan. The
conceptual framework was useful. However, the guide does not provide easily applicable tools for a
country team while developing a project.
8. How was the UNDP-GEF Adaptation Programming Website (www.undp.org/gef/adaptation) utilized to
develop the project? What was most useful and how could the site be improved?
- The UNDP-GEF Adaptation Programming website was used in looking for information on the unique
considerations that should be addressed in adaptation proposals as well as step-by-step guidelines for
formulating an adaptation-related project. Also the supporting materials were referred during the process.
Additionality
9. What makes the activities funded by the project “additional” or attributable to climate change?
Describe any lessons learned, or challenges that arose in assessing additionality and their solutions.
The problem of glacial melting, formation of glacial lakes and the subsequent threat of glacial lakes is
very much enhanced by global warming. Adapting and mitigating the threats of such disastrous events is
very much additional.
The inability to differentiate between regular and additional activities in the context of a rapidly changing
scenario of climate change and limited national adaptive capacity particularly for the LDCs makes the
distinction difficult and often times artificial.
10. How will baseline challenges be addressed by the project? Were deficits of adaptation 6 or
maladaptation7 identified as barriers to managing the risks of climate change? If so, please briefly
describe these challenges and their proposed solutions.
- Deficits of adaptation is identified as one of the barriers to managing risks of climate change. The
country lacks people with expertise in climate change in general. Also absence of assessments and datas
together with constraint in human and financial resources are also a barriers to managing risk of climate
change. The solution would be to build up the capacity of the people at the National, Intermediate and
local level along with creating awareness to the general public on the climate change -induced impact and
DRM. This will only nbe possible with increase in the human and financial resources.
11. How will the project build on methods and systems in place to manage current climate?
- In 2005, the National Environment Commission Secretariat undertook a series of stakeholder
consultation and prioritization exercises to formulate the National Adaptation Programme of Action
(NAPA) to respond to climate change threats. The proposed project has emanated from the NAPA
process.
The proposed project relates well to the Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC prepared in
2000. The National Communication highlights GLOFs as a major threat due to climate change and
recommends improved information on natural disaster risks and enhanced capability to predict GLOFs
and increase preparedness.
6
A deficit of adaptation exists where capacity to cope with current climate is insufficient, regardless of climate change.
Maladaptation is a practice or policy that increases the risk of negative impacts caused by climate change. Maladaptation can be
intentional (where the ‘cure’ is worse than the ‘disease’ over the long term), or unintentional (where a policy or practice is in place to
generate benefits in one area, but increases risks over the long term).
7
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In the context of the country’s overall national development goals and objectives, the proposed project
will contribute to the socio-economic development and environmental sustainability objectives envisioned
in Bhutan 2020, a vision document to maximize Gross National Happiness – a distinctive Bhutanese
philosophy which guides the development process in the country.
The Ninth Five Year Plan (June 2002-July 2007) features “building an inventory of geological,
engineering geology and geo-hazard maps” and “mitigating natural disasters resulting from natural
hazards” among the key objectives for the mineral resources and geotechnical services sector. The project
will contribute to these sectoral objectives.
Also the capacity built for an integrated DRM in the Punakha-Wangi and the Chamkhar Valleys will be
used to develop a national DRM system over time. Application of institutional, legislative and policy
frameworks within the two valleys will allow for an evaluation and learning process for creation of
national strategies. Similarly, capacity built at the intermediate and local levels amongst various
stakeholders in these two valleys, will allow for rapid replication of the DRM program into other districts
of Bhutan.
The experience and lessons learnt from the artificial lowering of the Thorthormi Lake waters will prove
invaluable in the years to come. This by no means is the last lake to pose GLOF threats. As climate
change becomes more pronounced, Bhutan will be exposed to greater GLOF threats. Capacity built at the
national level through this project will help Bhutan deal with GLOF problems by effectively adapting to
this particular hazard risk.
The EWS will be installed as a pilot for the Punakha-Wangdi Valley. Careful monitoring of performance,
efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and robustness will prove useful in developing a nation-wide EWS in the
future. Built capacity amongst communities for EWS awareness, preparedness, response, and developing
of safe areas will be replicable for other areas of the country. The EWS that will be installed for warning
against GLOF risks, will, in time, be upgraded to encapsulate multiple hazards. The learning captured at
the district and local level will provide a strong feedback into strengthening CBDRM approaches in
Bhutan and other communities across the developing world, especially in mountainous regions.
The hazard zonation activity that will be carried out during the PDF-B process for the Chamkhar Valley is
already being replicated from the process that had been undertaken for the Punakha-Wangdi Valley a few
years ago. Building national capacity to undertake hazard and vulnerability zoning activities will allow
for replication of similar risk identification strategies in other river valleys of Bhutan.
The project proposes to enhance the current state of knowledge on planning and implementing projects
for artificially lowering waters from glacial lakes in order to reduce the hazard risks for GLOFs. This
knowledge will be extremely useful for better adapting to climate change induced glacier retreat and
GLOF threats not only in Bhutan, but the entire Himalayan mountain region as well as other similar
terrains. This project will add to the Adaptation Learning Mechanism initiative developed by UNDP-GEF
aiming to integrate adaptation best practices and improved learning amongst different countries and
regions.
Assessment of adaptation responses
12. What process was used to identify and assess potential adaptation responses for the project? What
were the strengths and weaknesses of this process?
- The NAPA process in Bhutan where the methodology used to develop was a widely consultative
process involving stakeholders at the national and regional levels as well as the reports on the assessment
carried out by DGM and external experts were used to identify and assess potential adaptation responses
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for the project. The strength of this process is the involvement of various stakeholders from all levels and
recommendations from external expertise.
13. Are there unanswered questions or gaps in knowledge about how to adapt to climate change in the
context of the project? If so, what are they, and will they be explored through the project?
One of the prime unasnwered question would be: would the activities outlined even after all the
assessments acutally help mitigate the threats; will new emerging and more urgent threats come out
during the process of implementing the project that may derail attention on the current project; how
should the local people adapt to the changing situations both in the short term and in the long term (in
terms of their lifestyle, livelihood, or maybe even in terms of where they may need to be re-located).
All these questions would remain central to the implementation of the project and as per the principles of
adaptive management that will be followed in the project, these questions will be explored, answered and
adjustments made when necessary.
Integration of climate change risks and adaptation
14. How does the project propose to integrate climate change risks and information into ongoing
processes or programmes? Describe the entry points and methods identified for integrating climate
risk management into relevant policy, planning, or programming processes.
In the national process the project emanated from the NAPA processes. The NAPA process has generated
a lot of awareness and attention of the policy makers to the issue of climate change and the risks therein.
The assessments carried out in NAPA and during the project formulation and implementation will inform
national plans and policies so that these integrate climate risk information. A good entry point that the
whole NAPA process and the project would be targeting the preparation of the next 5 year plan for the
country (2009-2013) which is currently under discussion.
In the agency work (i.e. UNDP), climate risk has already been integrated into its work during the
formulation of the UNDAF (2008-2012) which served as a good entry point.
15. How is the project related to national development goals (e.g. MDGs, UNDAF, PRSP) and what was
learned in the process of making these linkages?
-The project is in line with the UNDP Bhutan’s Country Programme and contributes to one of its
key goals – “Crisis prevention and recovery”. Within this goal, an outcome to be secured is
“disaster risk reduction integrated into development planning”, and this project will constitute a
major contribution towards this outcome. The recently completed (Nov 2005) UN Common
Country Assessment highlights Bhutan’s vulnerability to climate change and the need to build
national capacity to address this issue. The project will also contribute to achieving the MDGs
by reducing vulnerability of the poor, and ensuring environmental sustainability.
Other PDF findings
16. What key climate change adaptation challenges were identified during project development that will
NOT be addressed by the project?
1. Studying the retreating of glaciers and its effect on the glacial lakes.
2. Measurement of the volume of Chubda glacial lake, the source for the Chamkar River in the Chamkar
Valley.
3. Identification of sites for EWS along the Chamkar basin
4. Environment Impact Assessments
17. Please list any assessments, studies and/or reports that were produced during the PDF phase (e.g.
vulnerability assessments, feasibility studies, cost-benefit analysis, etc.). Would these be of use to
others, and if so, to whom?
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- Hazard zonation and vulnerability assessment reports for Punakha-Wangdi and Chamkar
valley, EWS assessment report and EWS site assessment report.
The reports and assessments would be very useful to planners, NGOs, Civil socities, students,
researcher, Disaster Risk Management people and ofcourse the vulnerable communities.
Overall
18. Recommendations for future adaptation project developers
(i) Based on your PDF experience, what do you recommend be replicated by future projects?
- Each of the main Outcomes for the FSP have replicability components built into the Outputs.
a) The capacity built for an integrated DRM in the Punakha-Wangi and the Chamkhar Valleys will be
used to develop a national DRM system over time. Application of institutional, legislative and policy
frameworks within the two valleys will allow for an evaluation and learning process for creation of
national strategies. Similarly, capacity built at the intermediate and local levels amongst various
stakeholders in these two valleys, will allow for rapid replication of the DRM program into other
districts of Bhutan.
b) The experience and lessons learnt from the artificial lowering of the Thorthormi Lake waters will
prove invaluable in the years to come. This by no means is the last lake to pose GLOF threats. As
climate change becomes more pronounced, Bhutan will be exposed to greater GLOF threats. Capacity
built at the national level through this project will help Bhutan deal with GLOF problems by effectively
adapting to this particular hazard risk.
c) The EWS will be installed as a pilot for the Punakha-Wangdi Valley. Careful monitoring of
performance, efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and robustness will prove useful in developing a nationwide EWS in the future. Built capacity amongst communities for EWS awareness, preparedness,
response, and developing of safe areas will be replicable for other areas of the country. The EWS that
will be installed for warning against GLOF risks, will, in time, be upgraded to encapsulate multiple
hazards. The learning captured at the district and local level will provide a strong feedback into
strengthening CBDRM approaches in Bhutan and other communities across the developing world,
especially in mountainous regions.
d) The hazard zonation activity that will be carried out during the PDF-B process for the Chamkhar
Valley is already being replicated from the process that had been undertaken for the Punakha-Wangdi
Valley a few years ago. Building national capacity to undertake hazard and vulnerability zoning
activities will allow for replication of similar risk identification strategies in other river valleys of
Bhutan.
e) The project proposes to enhance the current state of knowledge on planning and implementing
projects for artificially lowering waters from glacial lakes in order to reduce the hazard risks for
GLOFs. This knowledge will be extremely useful for better adapting to climate change induced glacier
retreat and GLOF threats not only in Bhutan, but the entire Himalayan mountain region as well as other
similar terrains. This project will add to the Adaptation Learning Mechanism initiative developed by
UNDP-GEF aiming to integrate adaptation best practices and improved learning amongst different
countries and regions.
(ii) Based on your PDF experience, what do you recommend be done differently by future projects?
1. All the project activities should be carried out through one funding window. Under the PDF, the
hazard zonation in the Punakha - Wangdi valley is being supported through NCAP and the time line is
not the same.
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2. The timeline of 6 months is very short. The minimum time required would be 12 months.
3. The FSP should only be developed only once the PDF is completed.
(iii) Other lessons:
-Firstly, the timeline for completion should be kept at the minimum period of one year. It was found
that 6 months is very short to carry out all the activities.
- The project Managers from both UNDP and counterpart should be engaged from development
process
- The project should be managed by an experienced and dedicated project manager
- The project should be executed by one agency whereby decreasing the risk of coordination issues that
would otherwise arise if we have too many actors executing the same project.
- Should have Committed co-financier who would not withdraw their support half way through.
19. Description of baseline conditions
Please give evidence of the baseline at the conception of the project
20. Description of anticipated changes to the baseline
Describe the expected influence of the project – a best estimate
Policy Baseline
Policy Anticipated Changes
How do relevant policies and plans utilize climaterelated information, and what are the gaps in
utilizing climate information?
How do these policies influence the climate
vulnerability of the public and high-risk
populations?
How will relevant policies and plans utilize
climate-related information, and how will gaps
in utilizing climate information be addressed?
What evidence is anticipated to show that
policies have been adjusted, developed, or
increasingly enforced to reduce the
vulnerability of the public and high-risk
populations?
The Royal Government of Bhutan has recently
developed the National Disaster Risk Management
Framework. The Department of Local Governance
within the Ministry of Home and Cultural Affairs is
nodal agency for coordinating disaster
preparedness and response operations in the
country. The other ministries and departments at
the national level deal with different issues relevant
to disaster risk management as a part of their
regular functioning. Despite the progress made so
far there is a need to step up disaster risk reduction
and preparedness as climate change impacts
increase and communities become more
vulnerable to potential disaster risks.
The project has strong government support at
both central and local levels. Various
stakeholders from the government and civil
society were involved in the NAPA process
and some of those agencies are keen on
carrying forward the implementation of the top
priorities identified in the NAPA process. Also
through the NDRMF, systematization of DRM
and integration it into the development and
planning strategy for the country, are under
process.
Recognizing the need to systematize DRM and
integrate it into the development and planning
strategy for the country, the FSP aims to develop a
framework for strengthening disaster risk reduction
and preparedness for climate change-induced
disasters in the two most vulnerable areas of
Bhutan, the Punakha-Wangdi and the Chamkhar
Valleys. The integrated DRM approach will help
develop institutional, legislative and policy
frameworks and capacity for the national,
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intermediate (Dzongkhags) and local (Geogs)
levels, develop technical capabilities for better
preparedness and response mechanisms, initiate
community based disaster risk management
(CBDRM) programs and integrate DRM linkages
with other development sectors.
Capacity
Capacity
What types of capacity are relevant to the project’s
objective?
How sufficient are these capacities for managing
climate change? What evidence is there that
capacity is lacking?
How will capacity relevant to the project
change? What evidence is anticipated to show
that capacity has improved?
- Capacity development at the National,
Intermediate and local level on climate change induced impact as well as climate change-induced
DRM as well as relevant field equipments, Human
and financial resources and technical expertise are
relevant to project's objectives.
Through the project the capacity at the
National Level will not only change but the
capacity at the community level will also
change. At the National Level, the
implementing partners will be now in a better
position to understand about the climate
change induced impacts. They will now be
able to replicate the project in other sites. At
the community level, the communities will be
in a better position in planning and preparation
processes.
Practices
Practices
What types of management practices are relevant
to the project? (Consider the practices of various
stakeholders related to agriculture/food security,
water resources management, public health,
disaster risk management, coastal zone
development, natural resources management, or
other areas.)
What evidence is there that current practices for
managing resources that are sensitive to climate
are or will become insufficient in the future?
How will practices for managing resources
change? What evidence is anticipated to show
that practices are improved?
Awareness
Awareness
What is the level of awareness about climate
change among relevant stakeholders? What effect
does this have on policymaking or resource
management for adapting to climate change?
How is the level of awareness about climate
change among relevant policymakers
expected to change?
The project has strong government support at both
central and local levels and also Various
stakeholders from the government and civil society
were involved in the NAPA process and some of
those agencies are keen on carrying forward the
implementation of the top priorities identified in the
NAPA process. Also through the NDRMF, it was
felt that it is very important to systematize DRM and
integrate it into the development and planning
strategy for the country.
1. The project has strong government support.
2. The project is in line with the priorities
identified in the NAPA
3. Through workshops among the stakeholder,
the level of awareness about CC is expected
to change.
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Other
Other
Other baseline issues:
Changes expected in other baseline issues:
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