Leicestershire County Council Climate
Change Resilience Action Plan
October 2011 V1.1
Report authors: Jonathan Cattell/ Christina Downend
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Contents Page
Contents Page ................................................................................................. 2
Section 0. Executive summary: ........................................................................ 3
0.1 Background................................................................................................ 3
0.2 Managing climate change risks at the County Council .............................. 3
0.4 Conclusions ............................................................................................... 6
Section 1:
Introduction ........................................................................... 7
1.1
Observed and projected climate change ............................... 7
1.1.1
Observed climate change ............................................................ 7
1.1.2
Projections of future climate change ............................................ 7
1.2
Resilience to climate change ................................................ 9
1.2.1
The need for resilience ................................................................. 9
1.2.2
Defining resilience to climate change ......................................... 10
1.2.3
Climate change resilience and climate change mitigation .......... 11
1.2.4
The national resilience context ................................................... 11
Section 2:
Resilience to Climate Change at Leicestershire County
Council
12
2.1
Drivers for resilience ........................................................... 12
2.1.1
Climate change risk to the County Council ................................ 12
2.1.2
Public commitments made by the County Council to improve
resilience .................................................................................... 12
2.2
Work undertaken to increase resilience .............................. 13
2.2.1
NI188 Level 1: LCLIP ................................................................. 14
2.2.2
NI188 Level 2: Comprehensive risk assessment of council
services ...................................................................................... 15
2.2.3
NI188 Level 3: Comprehensive action plan and embedding ...... 15
2.2.3.3 Key risks to council services identified in the risk assessments ........ 17
2.2.4
Work to achieve NI188 Level 4 in 2011/12 ................................. 19
2.2.5
Flood risk assessment and strategy ........................................... 21
Section 3:
General conclusions............................................................ 22
Appendix 1 ..................................................................................................... 23
A Summary of the local climate impacts profile for Leicestershire.............. 23
Appendix 2 ..................................................................................................... 23
Departmental Climate Change Resilience Action Plans ............................. 23
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Section 0. Executive summary:
0.1 Background
There is a scientific consensus that climate change resulting from human
activities is already occurring and will continue into the future. Warming has
been observed to accelerate over time, with the warming trend over the last
50 years (0.13°C per decade) nearly twice that of the last 100 years.
The climate change projections for the East Midlands are:
o hotter, drier summers;
o wetter warmer winters;
o more frequent occurrence of intense rainfall and;
o less intense, less frequent occurrence of very cold weather.
These projections suggest an increase in the frequency of severe weather
events such as:
o flooding,
o drought and
o heat waves.
In the past these have caused problems within the county and to the council
with the delivery of services and asset damage. Vulnerable service users are
particularly at risk and if service delivery is disrupted or assets damaged the
results will be highly visible, bringing reputational risks along with financial
impacts.
Lord Krebbs, the Chair of the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the UK
Committee on Climate Change, has noted that: the costs of not being resilient
are likely to be far higher than those associated with building resilience:
“The UK must start acting now to prepare for climate change. If we wait, it will be too
late. It is not necessarily about spending more, but about spending smart and
investing to save. If we get it right, we can save money in the short term and avoid
large extra costs in the future. The time has come to move from talking to acting”.
Under the Climate Change Act 2008 the UK Government has a statutory duty
to undertake a UK-wide climate change risk assessment (CCRA), to be
updated every five years.
In order to ensure that local authorities are prepared for climate change, the
Government created the national Indicator NI188 Planning to Adapt to Climate
Change.
0.2 Managing climate change risks at the County Council
0.2.1 Identification of risks
In order to ensure continuity and high quality of service delivery it is important
that Leicestershire County Council is resilient to the effects of climate change.
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Starting in 2008/9 Leicestershire County Council has been working with the
East Midlands climate change partnership (Climate East Midlands) which
supports the adaptation agenda by providing funding to all the East Midlands
unitary and county authorities. This funding has provided each authority with
one full-time officer and supplementary support such as workshops.
The programme began with an overview of the Council’s recent vulnerabilities
to weather events (the Local Climate Impacts profile) and progressed to
compiling detailed risk registers for services at high risk from climate change
and a generic risk register for those services less at risk. The process
involved both a consideration of the service’s ability to react to extreme
events, such as heat-waves and flooding, and the need to adapt aspects of
service delivery to reduce vulnerability.
Running concurrently to this programme, Highways produced their own risk
register as part of a study lead by the 3CAP Highways Alliance.
The service units identified as being at high risk from climate change are as
follows:
Service units at high risk from climate change
Environment & Transport
o Highways (infrastructure)
o Passenger Transport Unit
o Waste (Disposal and Treatment,
Procurement, Policy and Strategy)
Infrastructure
and
o
o
o
o
o
o
Personal Care and Support
Promoting Independence
Strategy and Commissioning
Archives (Records Office)
Museums
Snibston Museum
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
Specialist Services
Strategic Initiatives/ Outdoor and Residential Services
Extended Services
Youth Services
Strategic Services /Planning and Commissioning
Universal Services/ Early years
(Excluding schools)
Corporate Resources:
o
o
Estates Management (Forestry, Country Parks)
Property Services (Asset Management, Building Design,
Corporate Facilities Management)
Chief Executives:
o
Historic and Natural Environment
Adults & Communities:
Children
Services
&
Young
People
The following is a summary of the key risks, and some opportunities,
identified:
Key risks across service units
Risks
arising
from
hotter
summers and more frequent
heat-waves
o
Working conditions in council buildings may be
unfavourable / hazardous as temperatures within
buildings become increasingly high during summer
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Key risks across service units
o
o
o
Risks arising from drier summers
o
o
o
o
o
Risks arising from wetter winters
with more intense rainfall
o
o
o
o
o
o
Opportunities presented by
predicted climate changes
o
o
o
months
Vulnerable adults and children may suffer from heat
stress as a result of high temperatures within passenger
transport vehicles
Vulnerable adults and children under Council care may
suffer heat stress in their homes.
Road surfaces may melt during heat waves resulting in
traffic disruption
Subsidence risk to building and highways structures
causing structural damage, closures and costly repairs.
Trees located on clay soils could become unstable
impacting upon highways and buildings.
Increased risk of non-native pests/invasive species and
exotic diseases and increased activity of existing pests
and diseases causing damage to biodiversity, risks to
health and damage to buildings.
Increased risk of fires on and adjacent to Council
properties.
Drought conditions affecting habitat management.
On-site surface water drains and guttering may be
unable to cope with increased heavy downpours
causing flooding of buildings and estates causing
disruption to service delivery.
Highways drainage systems may be unable to cope with
heavy downpours resulting in localised flooding and
erosion.
Disruption to transport networks due to fluvial flooding.
Vulnerable adults and children may be cut-off from
Council services due to local or wide-spread flooding.
Highways bridges become unstable due to increased
scour from fast flowing water.
The potential for severe weather events to increase the
risk of power cuts and other infrastructure damages.
This could reduce the council’s ability to deliver its
services including the essential services to vulnerable
people.
Potential reduction in CO2 emissions and energy costs
due to less need for winter heating (provided this is not
off-set by CO2 emissions from summer cooling.)
Reduction in cold weather risks to vulnerable people.
Reduced damage to highways and buildings from less
frost.
0.2.2 Management of risks
Climate change has now been embedded within the business planning
process with each service unit required to consider their climate change risks
and to include any actions within, or referenced from, their business plans.
Major projects are required to complete an environmental implications
assessment, which includes consideration of climate change risks. A version
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of the assessment tool is also embedded in the Council’s purchasing
guidance.
0.3 Next steps
The Climate Action Team is currently working with Climate East Midlands to
investigate appropriate performance indicators for resilience and to develop
an area-wide risk assessment and action plan with key partners.
The Climate East Midlands support is due to be completed at the end of
2011/2. The Climate Action Team will continue to advise service units on
climate predictions, resilience planning and appropriate adaptive responses.
0.4 Conclusions
The general conclusion drawn from the work undertaken to date is that the
Council has in place robust contingency plans, including business continuity
and emergency plans, to cope with extreme events. However, key
infrastructures, particularly those relating to highways, council buildings and
service providers’, and some aspects of service delivery to vulnerable people,
may need to be adapted to maintain their resilience to both general climatic
trends and a greater frequency and severity of extreme weather events.
With an increased awareness of the risks presented by climate change, ongoing reviews of these risks embedded in business planning and decisionmaking processes and the support of the Climate Action Team working with
Climate East Midlands to develop and disseminate best practice, the Council
will continue to maintain a high level of performance.
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Section 1:
1.1
Introduction
Observed and projected climate change
1.1.1 Observed climate change
UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) data shows that
global temperature increased by around 0.74°C in the 100 years from 1906 to
2005. Warming has been observed to accelerate over time, with the warming
trend over the last 50 years (0.13°C per decade) nearly twice that of the last
100 years. The ten warmest years on record have all occurred from 1995
onwards (UKCP09a).
At the same time the global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has
increased from a pre-industrial value of about 280 parts per million (ppm) to
387 ppm in 2009 (IPCC 2007a, EEA 2010). The primary source of the
increase is fossil fuel use (IPCC, 2007a). The IPCC (2007a) states that there
is a greater than 90% probability that most of the observed increase in global
average temperatures since the mid-20th century was due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
It is very difficult to show that any individual weather event has been caused
by human greenhouse gas emissions, because weather events can occur by
chance in any climate. However in recent years scientific studies have begun
to establish the extent to which climate change has influenced the probability
of such events occurring.
The 2003 heat wave in Europe is one of the most significant extreme weather
events of recent decades. Stott et al (2004) expressed a confidence of over
90% that the chances of a temperature event of this magnitude have been at
least doubled by human-induced climate change.
Pall et al’s (2011) study of the 2000 floods in England and Wales found that
the chance of the floods occurring was ‘very likely’ (a nine-tenths probability)
to have been increased by 20% by man-made greenhouse gas emissions,
and ‘likely’ (a two-thirds probability) to have been increased by 90% or more.
1.1.2 Projections of future climate change
The UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09b) provide projections of future
climate change.
Projections are provided for three future periods: the 2020s, 2050s and
2080s.
In summary the projections for the East Midlands are for:
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




Hotter, drier summers, with more frequent and intense heatwaves and
droughts. The mean daily maximum temperature (i.e. the temperature
in the hottest part of the day) is projected to increase more than the
mean temperature, increasing the likelihood and severity of hot
summer temperatures and heat waves.
Warmer, wetter winters
More intense, more frequent occurrence of intense rainfall. Episodes of
intense rainfall may increase even in summer, for which predicted
overall rainfall is projected to decrease.
Less intense, less frequent occurrence of very cold weather and
snow/frost/ice events. Although there is uncertainty around the
modelling, projections are for substantial decreases in the number of
days with snow falling and heavy snowfall events by the end of the
century. More precipitation will fall as rain instead of snow.
Projections are for negligible change in wind speed.
More detailed information on the projections for an area of Leicestershire is
given below in Table 1. N.B. projections for winter mean temperature and
precipitation comes from East Midlands projections.
The changes are against a baseline of the observed average climate over the
period 1961-1990, using UKCP09’s medium greenhouse gas emissions
scenario.
The main figures given (in larger text) are central estimates, while the figures
in brackets are 10th and 90th percentiles values. So for example, there is only
a 10% probability that summer mean temperature will increase by less than
0.5ºC by the 2020s, and only a 10% probability that it will increase by more
than 2.5ºC.
Changes compared to 1961-1990
averages
Climate variable
2020s
Summer
increase
mean
temperature
is
projected
to
The mean daily maximum temperature (i.e. the
temperature in the hottest part of the day) is
projected to increase. This is projected to increase
more than the mean temperature. As such, the
likelihood and severity of hot summer temperatures
and heat waves is projected in increase.
Summer mean precipitation (rainfall) is projected
to decrease.
Winter mean temperature is projected to increase
.
2050s
2080s
+ 1.4°C
+2.5°C
+3.6°C
(0.5 to 2.5)
(1.2 to 4.3)
(1.9 to 5.9)
+3.2ºC
+4.5ºC
(1.3 to 5.6)
(2.0 to 7.9)
-8%
-20%
-23%
(-25 to 12)
(-40 to 6)
(-47 to 6)
+1.3ºC
+2.2ºC
+3.0ºC
(0.6 to 2.1)
(1.1 to 3.4)
(1.6 to 4.6)
+1.8ºC
(0.5 to 3.2)
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Winter mean precipitation is projected to increase.
Precipitation on the wettest day in winter is
projected in increase.
Precipitation on the wettest day in summer is
projected to increase.
+5%
+14%
+18%
(-2 to 16)
(2 to 29)
(3 to 41)
+3%
+1%
(-17 to 27)
(-18 to 24)
+3%
(-18 to 29)
4%
8%
12%
(-7 to 17)
(-5 to 24)
(-2 to 30)
Table 1: Projected climate change in East Charnwood and the East Midlands
region (source: UK Climate Change Projections 2009)
1.2
Resilience to climate change
1.2.1 The need for resilience
There is a need for building resilience to climate change because some
changes in climate are inevitable.. There are potentially serious financial and
service implications of not being resilient in the face of these changes.
Some climate change has already been observed and studies have begun to
show that man-made greenhouse gas emissions have increased the
probability of extreme weather events occurring.1
Some future climate change is also inevitable as a result of a time-lag in the
absorption from and later release of heat into the atmosphere by oceans.
Even if greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere had remained at
2000 levels – which it has already exceeded - around a further 0.1°C warming
above 1980-1999 average temperature would take place per decade for the
next two decades, with a total of around 0.6°C warming by the end of the 21 st
century (IPCC, 2007a, 2007b).
With regard to this Sir Nicholas Stern, author of the influential Stern Review
on the Economics of Climate Change (2006), has stated that:
“It is no longer possible to prevent the climate change that will take place over the
next two or three decades, but it is still possible to protect our societies and
economies from its impacts”
Although it is the stated goal of international climate change negotiations to
limit global average temperature rise to 2ºC above pre-industrial levels commonly regarded as the threshold for ‘dangerous climate change’ - many
leading climate scientists believe that this will be very difficult to achieve due
to current atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and likely
emissions trajectories over the short-term (University of Copenhagen, 2009).
1
Could include Nature study of 2000 floods in England, and Stott et al on French heat wave
in 2003.
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The UN Environment Programme (2010) calculated that emissions reductions
pledges made by developed countries in the Copenhagen Accord which
emerged from climate change negotiations at Copenhagen in December 2009
– and later integrated within the Cancun agreement of 2010 – would result in
warming of between 2.5ºC and 5ºC.
Although it is hoped that the ongoing international negotiations will result in
stronger action to cut emissions, it seems that significant climate change is
likely.
The financial costs of not being resilient to climate change are estimated to be
high. The IPCC (2007b) states that:
“Impacts of climate change will vary regionally but, aggregated and discounted to the
present, they are very likely to impose net annual costs which will increase over time
as global temperatures increase.”
Lord Krebbs, the Chair of the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the UK
Committee on Climate Change, has noted that: the costs of not being resilient
are likely to be far higher than those associated with building resilience:
“The UK must start acting now to prepare for climate change. If we wait, it will be too
late. It is not necessarily about spending more, but about spending smart and
investing to save. If we get it right, we can save money in the short term and avoid
large extra costs in the future. The time has come to move from talking to acting”.
1.2.2 Defining resilience to climate change
The World Bank defines resilience to climate change as:
The “ability of a human or natural system to: adapt, i.e., to adjust to climate
change, including to climate variability and extremes; prevent or moderate
potential damage; take advantage of opportunities; or cope with the
consequences”.
The World Bank states that actions are required to:
1.
‘Prevent or moderate potential damage’ from climate change by taking
actions which reduce the likelihood of risks occurring;
2.
‘Cope with the consequences’ by takings actions which reduce the
severity of a risk in the event that it does occur;
3.
‘Take advantage of opportunities’.
In order to be resilient to climate change risk it is essential that action is taken
both to reduce the likelihood of events occurring (point 1 above) and to reduce
the severity of events which do occur (point 2). Moreover, mitigating the risks
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will reduce the requirement of reactive action necessary to cope with the
consequences of such events which is obviously more desirable.
1.2.3 Climate change resilience and climate change mitigation
There is a distinction between climate change resilience and climate change
mitigation.
Mitigation can be defined as the reduction of emissions of
greenhouse gases into the atmosphere or the enhancement of ‘sinks’
(such as forests) which remove greenhouse gases from the
atmosphere. Mitigation reduces the risk that climate change will
occur.
Resilience is our ability to maintain levels of standards and service
delivery, despite changes to the climate, through reactive and
proactive risk management processes.
It is important that climate resilience and mitigation efforts complement –
rather than contradict - each other. One example of complementary action is
the installation of green roofs, which both reduce heat loss (and therefore the
need for heating and its associated greenhouse gas emissions) in winter, and
reduce heat gain and water run-off (therefore contributing towards climate
resilience). The installation of energy-hungry air-conditioning units may on the
other hand improve resilience but be detrimental to mitigation efforts. This
consideration informs the approach at Leicestershire County Council.
1.2.4 The national resilience context
Under the Climate Change Act 2008 the Committee on Climate Change
(CCC) was set-up with the role of providing independent advice to the
government on how it can achieve emissions reduction targets. The
Adaptation Sub-Committee of the CCC provides advice to government on the
actions that should be taken to prepare for climate change in the UK.
Under the Act the UK Government has a statutory duty to undertake a UKwide climate change risk assessment (CCRA), to be updated every five years.
The first CCRA is currently being developed and must be presented to
Parliament by the end of January 2012. In response to the CCRA, a national
adaptation programme must be put in place and reviewed every five years to
address the most pressing climate change risks to England.
Prior to the abolition of the National Indicator set by the Coalition Government,
National Indicator 188 (‘Planning to adapt to climate change’) was used to
measure Local Authority preparedness for climate change.
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Section 2:
Resilience to Climate Change at
Leicestershire County Council
2.1
Drivers for resilience
2.1.1 Climate change risk to the County Council
Climate change poses a number of risks to communities in Leicestershire and
to the County Council. Communities with high vulnerability as a result of
physical or socio-economic situations are at particular risk. Climate change
has implications for the delivery of all services, with some – particularly those
with vulnerable service users - at higher risk than others. If service delivery is
disrupted or assets damaged due to climate change impacts the results will
be highly visible, bringing reputational risks. The ability to meet government
targets and local commitments across a number of policy areas could also be
affected by climate change.
Climate change also brings financial risks. Weather events have already had
identifiable financial impacts on the Council and these can be expected to
increase in future as a result of an increase in frequency and intensity of
extreme events linked to climate change.
In order to ensure continuity and high quality of service delivery it is important
that Leicestershire County Council is resilient to the effects of climate change.
The Climate Change Resilience2 Plan provides an outline of work being
undertaken within the Council to achieve this.
It is not intended to be a top-down driver of work but instead captures actions
being taken forward through business planning and other processes. It has
been written in order that senior managers understand and recognise the
responsibilities that they have in taking forwards these actions.
2.1.2 Public commitments made by the County Council to improve
resilience
Although there is no statutory requirement for Local Authority work on climate
change resilience, the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on
Climate Change has recently emphasized the essential role that local
The term ‘climate change resilience’ is used in this Plan. It is felt at Leicestershire County
Council that the term ‘resilience’ best encapsulates the required response to climate change,
while one of the Outcomes of the Council’s Environment Strategy is that ‘the authority
increases its resilience to the predicted changes in climate ’. However, the phrase ‘climate
change adaptation’ is often used, including by the UK government. ‘Adaptation’ and
‘resilience’ can be taken as interchangeable here.
2
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authorities have in planning ahead and taking action to improve resilience
(Defra, 2010).
The County council has made a number of public commitments to improve its
resilience to climate change. Recognising the importance of adaptation to
climate change, one of the Outcomes in the County Council’s Environment
Strategy is:
‘The authority increases its resilience to the predicted changes in climate’
One of the objectives in the Leicestershire Sustainable Community Strategy
2011-2021 is:
‘There is high resilience to the effects of climate change’.
The County Council is also a signatory to the Nottingham Declaration on
Climate Change. Under the Declaration it has committed to:
“Assess the risks associated with climate change and the implication for our
services and communities of climate change impacts and adapt accordingly.”
2.2
Work undertaken to increase resilience
The East Midlands climate change partnership (Climate East Midlands)
supports the adaptation agenda by providing funding to all the East Midlands
unitary and county authorities. This funding provides each authority with one
full-time officer position as well as supplementary support such as workshops.
The East Midlands authorities used the National Indicator 188 (planning to
adapt to climate change) framework to achieve progress in this area. The
former National Indicator sought to measure local authority preparedness to
manage risks from a changing climate and to make the most of new
opportunities.
NI188 was included in the Leicestershire Local Area Agreement and has
provided the framework for the resilience work taken forwards by the
authority. Although the National Indicators and Local Area Agreements were
abolished in 2010, the requirement to report to Leicestershire Together in
March 2011 on performance under NI188 remained. The County Council will
continue to use NI188 as its framework for action in 2011/12.
A summary of the Levels of NI188 are as follows:

Level 0 – Getting Started: Review of plans, polices and strategies to
identify current level of consideration of climate change risk.
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



Level 1 – Public commitment and impacts assessment: Undertaking a
Local Climate Impact Profile (LCLIP) to better understand the impact of
weather events on the county area and on County Council Services.
Level 2 – Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Council services
Level 3 – Comprehensive Action Plan for the Council and embedding
of consideration of climate change; support to LSP partners in
managing climate change risks.
Level 4 – Implementation, monitoring and continuous review of Council
actions; systems in place for monitoring the performance of adaptation
actions; implementation of LSP Action Plan.
The County Council successfully achieved its targets, as set out in the
Environment Strategy, of Level 1 in 2008/9, Level 2 in 2009/10 and Level 3 in
2010/11. Attainment of Levels was self-assessed and reported to Defra as
well as to the Council’s Corporate Management Team and Cabinet. The
target for 2011/12 is to achieve Level 4.
2.2.1 NI188 Level 1: LCLIP
The Local Climate Impacts Profile (LCLIP) is a study that highlights a locality’s
vulnerability to severe weather events and how these events affect local
communities as well as local authority assets, infrastructure and capacity to
deliver services.
Between 2000 and 2010 the Leicestershire LCLIP identified a total of 711
weather-related incidents. Of these, high winds and excessive rainfall
characterised the majority. Weather events are estimated to have cost the
County Council in excess of £5million during the period in question.
The County Council services most frequently affected by the weather
incidents identified in the LCLIP were (with the most affected services first):
 Highways
 Forestry
 Children & Young People (incidents relating to schools)
 Properties
 Waste Management
 Adult Social Care
In terms of other partners, the most frequently affected were (with the most
affected first):
 Leicestershire Fire & Rescue Service
 Utility companies (Anglian Water, Severn Trent, electricity companies)
 Leicestershire Constabulary
 District and town councils
 The Environment Agency
 Leicestershire PCT
 Network Rail and train operating companies
A summary of the LCLIP for Leicestershire is available as Appendix 1
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2.2.2 NI188 Level 2: Comprehensive risk assessment of council
services
Using the results from the LCLIP a Comprehensive Risk Assessment of risks
to council service delivery was undertaken in 2009/10 in order to achieve
NI188 Level 2.
The key risks identified in the risk assessment are summarised in section 3.
The risk registers detailing risks and recommended remedial actions for each
high risk service can be found in Appendix 2.
2.2.3 NI188 Level 3: Comprehensive action plan and embedding
The key aspect of work to achieve NI188 Level 3 during 2010/11 has been the
integration of climate change resilience within the Council’s environmental
management processes.
This has been achieved through:
a) Integrating the results of the Comprehensive Risk Assessment within
the Council’s Risk Management process.
b) The development and adoption of the Environmental Implications
Tool, through which consideration of climate change resilience is
embedded within the development of Major Projects, new policies
and strategies and procurements.
2.2.3.1 Climate Change Risk Register process
High climate change risk service units
The results of the Comprehensive Risk Assessment undertaken for service
units considered to be at high risk from climate change have been integrated
within the Council’s Risk Management process and have been used to
develop Climate Change Risk Registers for services at high risk from climate
change.
Through this process climate change risks and measures to reduce them are
embedded with the Council’s business planning processes. Business
Planning Guidance states that Environmental and Climate Change Risk
Registers should be used to inform both Departmental and Local Business
Plan priorities and action plans, and be reviewed and up-dated every year.
More detail is available in the Environment and Climate Change Risk Register
guidance and Business Planning guidance.
The Climate Action Team met with the following high Climate Change Risk
service units between November 2010 and March 2011 to develop and review
the Climate Change Risk Registers:
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-Environment & Transport:
 Passenger Transport Unit
 Waste (Disposal and Treatment, Infrastructure and Procurement, Policy
and Strategy)
 Highways (3 CAP study)
-Adults & Communities:
 Personal Care and Support
 Promoting Independence
 Strategy and Commissioning
 Archives (Records Office)
 Museums
 Snibston Museum
-Corporate Resources:
 Estates Management (Forestry, Country Parks)
 Property Services (Asset Management, Building Design, Corporate
Facilities Management)
-Chief Executives:
 Historic and Natural Environment
 Youth Justice & Sustainable Communities
-Children & Young People Services3
 Specialist Services
 Strategic Initiatives/ Outdoor and Residential Services
 Extended Services
 Youth Services
 Strategic Services /Planning and Commissioning
 Universal Services/ Early years
In line with the periods used for the UK Climate Projections 2009, the Climate
Change Risk Registers require consideration of the risks from climate change
in two future time periods: the 2020s and the 2050s.4
Each service unit’s Climate Change Risk Register details potential high risks
and opportunities, the actions currently in place to manage them, whether
further managing actions are required and if so what these actions are. Some
of the Risk Registers contain further actions which have been recommended
as being appropriate for future implementation but which will not be
implemented in 2011/12. Where this is the case, recommended and adopted
actions are clearly distinguished. (A slimmed down version of these is in
Appendix 2).
3
A single Climate Change Risk Register was developed at Departmental level for CYPS.
It was considered that the third UK Climate Projections period – the 2080s – was too far in
the future to be useful for service planning purposes.
4
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In addition to identifying adaptive actions for service units themselves, the
Risk Register process has also identified actions to be taken forward by the
Climate Action Team, and as such appear in its Business Plan.
Opportunities
‘High’ risk service units’ Climate Change Risk Registers also identified
opportunities presented by climate change. The opportunities were not
scored, due to the Corporate Risk Assessment scoring system not lending
itself well to scoring opportunities. Existing actions already being taken and
any further actions required to exploit opportunities were identified.
Low climate change risk service units
For service units not considered to be at high risk, four generic climate
change risks have been included in the Generic Environment and Climate
Change Risk Register which all Local Business Planning units are required to
complete.
2.2.3.2 The Environmental Implications Tool (EIT)
The development of the Environmental Implications Tool (EIT) means that
consideration of climate change resilience is embedded within the Corporate
guidance for the development of Major Projects. It is also recommended for
use in appraising smaller projects, procurements and in the development or
renewal of policies and strategies. The Climate Action Team must be
consulted about all major Projects and will be monitoring Cabinet forward plan
agendas to ensure that none are missed and to identify any Policies or
Strategies that might also benefit from use of the EIT.
Specifically, the EIT asks:
“Will the project be vulnerable to climate change or will it reduce our
vulnerability to climate change?
i.e. - Does weather directly impact on the project?
- Is the project directly concerned with construction, maintenance or soft
estate?
- Are road networks/ buildings/ soft estate to be used by the project?
- Does the project deal with vulnerable people or is it a critical service?
- Will the project be located or operate in flood risk areas?”
2.2.3.3 Key risks to council services identified in the risk assessments
A summary of the key risks and opportunities to the Council that scored
highest during the risk assessments is as follows:
Risks arising from hotter summers and more frequent heat waves:
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o Working conditions in council buildings may be unfavourable /
hazardous as temperatures within buildings become increasingly high
during summer months
o Vulnerable adults and children may suffer from heat stress as a result
of high temperatures within passenger transport vehicles
o Vulnerable adults and children under Council care may suffer heat
stress in their homes.
o Road surfaces may melt during heat waves resulting in traffic
disruption
Risks arising from drier summers
o Subsidence risk to building and highways structures causing structural
damage, closures and costly repairs.
o Trees located on clay soils could become unstable impacting upon
highways and buildings.
o Increased risk of non-native pests/invasive species and exotic diseases
and increased activity of existing pests and diseases causing damage
to biodiversity, risks to health and damage to buildings.
o Increased risk of fires on and adjacent to Council properties.
o Drought conditions affecting habitat management.
Risks arising from wetter winters with more intense rainfall
o On-site surface water drains and guttering may be unable to cope with
increased heavy downpours causing flooding of buildings and estates
causing disruption to service delivery.
o Highways drainage systems may be unable to cope with heavy
downpours resulting in localised flooding and erosion.
o Disruption to transport networks due to fluvial flooding.
o Vulnerable adults and children may be cut-off from Council services
due to local or wide-spread flooding.
o Highways bridges become unstable due to increased scour from fast
flowing water.
o The potential for severe weather events to increase the risk of power
cuts and other infrastructure damages. This could reduce the council’s
ability to deliver its services including the essential services to
vulnerable people.
Opportunities presented by predicted climate changes
o Potential reduction in CO2 emissions due to less need for winter
heating (provided this is not off-set by CO2 emissions from summer
cooling.
o Reduction in cold weather risks to vulnerable people.
o Reduced damage to highways and buildings from less frost.
These risks scored highest amongst the risks identified in the risk
assessments and have been included in the climate change risk registers for
each service as appropriate.
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The climate change risk registers for each high level service are detailed in
Appendix 1. It is broken down into department sections and details the
current level or resilience in place as well as the recommendations for future
resilience action.
2.2.3.4 Work with district and borough councils
The County Council has been supporting Leicestershire district and borough
councils to help them identify climate change risks to the services which they
provide and to take forward actions to reduce these risks. A Comprehensive
Risk Assessment of each council’s high climate change risk services was
undertaken during 2009/10 as part of work to achieve NI188 Level 2. During
2010/11 a number of district and borough councils have embedded
consideration of key risks and further actions within their existing
environmental management processes or climate change Plans or Strategies.
District and borough councils have an important part to play in reducing
climate risks in their areas through their role as Local Planning Authorities.
The County Council has begun to explore with planners how this work can be
taken forward. Work in this area will be outlined in the area-wide Climate
Change Resilience Plan.
2.2.3.5 Working with Leicestershire Together partners
In a process led by Leicester City Council workshops have taken place during
2010/11 with Leicestershire Constabulary and Leicestershire Fire and Rescue
Service to support them in identifying and managing their climate change
risks.
2.2.4 Work to achieve NI188 Level 4 in 2011/12
In line with its Environment Strategy target the County Council will work to
achieve NI188 Level 4 in 2011/12. The work will be led by the Climate Action
Team.
The requirements for Level 4 will be achieved through continued work to
embed the processes put in place during 2010/11, work on measuring the
outcomes of the work in terms of improving resilience, and the development
and adoption of an area-wide Action Plan, which will contain actions with an
area-wide relevance which require partnership working between LSP
partners.
Achieving Level 4 will entail action in three areas, which include both internal
and County-level work:
a) Further embedding of Climate Change Risk Register/Environmental
Risk Register and Environmental Implications Tool processes,
including the implementation of actions identified through the Climate
Change Risk Registers.
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b) Development of an area-wide Climate Change Resilience Plan.
c) Development of a system for measuring the outcomes of the work
undertaken in terms of increasing resilience to climate change at the
county-wide level.
a) Further embedding of processes
Further work will be required to continue to embed the Climate Change Risk
Register and Environmental Implications Tool processes.
It is the
responsibility of Departments to implement the initial actions agreed to
improve resilience (as summarised in Appendix 1) and to continually review
their management of these risks. The Climate Action Team will implement its
own identified further actions which will support work by Departments.
b) Development of an area-wide climate Change Resilience Plan
The County Council is planning to develop an area-wide Climate Change
Resilience Plan during 2011/12. The Plan will contribute to the management
of climate change risks and exploitation of any opportunities within the County
as a whole.
The process for developing the Action Plan will include carrying out an areawide climate change risk assessment and then working with LSP partner
organisations to identify how the risks are already being managed and what
partnership working can take place between organisations to reduce the risks.
c) Development of a system for measuring resilience outcomes
NI188 Guidance (LRAP, 2010) for Level 4 states that an Aim of work on Level
4 should be:
“To establish robust systems for monitoring, against the objectives of the plan,
the performance of adaptation measures undertaken in the delivery of the
Adaptation Action Plans, including the actions of all partners.”
Aside from this requirement of the guidance, the County Council believes that
the measurement of resilience outcomes is of high importance. Levels 0-3 of
NI188 are process-based, and while the appropriate processes have been put
in place to achieve these levels, their impact on improving resilience,
measured by outcomes such as a reduction in disruption to services due to
weather events, needs to be understood. Work to take this forward is
therefore identified as a further action for 2011/12 for the Climate Action
Team.
Preliminary investigation of the topic has suggested that the indicators which
would be appropriate for use relate to County-wide impacts, as opposed to
relating solely to impacts on county council operations. A system with a
County-wide scope will also meet the requirements of the NI188 Guidance,
which states that a system should incorporate monitoring of the performance
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of actions by partners (as will be included in the Area-wide Climate Change
Resilience Plan).
This work may take place in partnership with Defra and/or with Loughborough
University, with whom preliminary discussions have begun.
The Climate Action Team will also work with Transport Policy and
Performance Management colleagues (within the Environment and Transport
Department) to develop a similar system limited in scope to measuring the
resilience of the local transport network to climate change, as a Key
Performance Indicator of progress on the LTP3 Strategic Outcome that ‘Our
transport system is resilient to the effects of climate change’.
2.2.5 Flood risk assessment and strategy
Under the Flood Regulations 2009 and the Flood and Water Management Act
2010 the County Council is lead Local Flood Authority for surface water flood
risk management. The County Council’s work on flood risk is led from within
the Highways Branch of the Environment and Transport Department.
As Lead Authority the County Council has responsibility for the co-ordination
of flood risk management in the county area. In response to this requirement
the sub-regional Flood Risk Management Board has been set up. It includes
representatives from Leicestershire County Council, Leicester City Council,
Rutland County Council, district councils (through the Charnwood Chief
Executive), Local Resilience Forum (LRF), and Severn Trent Water.
A preliminary flood risk assessment will be carried out and from this a local
flood risk strategy will be written and followed.
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Section 3:
General conclusions
A general conclusion drawn from the work undertaken to date would be that
the Council has in place robust contingency plans, including business
continuity and emergency plans, to cope with extreme events. However, key
infrastructures, particularly those relating to highways, council buildings and
service providers’, and some aspects of service delivery to vulnerable people,
will need to be adapted to maintain their resilience to both general climatic
trends and a greater frequency and severity of extreme events.
With an increased awareness of the risks presented by climate change, ongoing reviews of these risks embedded in business planning and decisionmaking processes and the support of the Climate Action Team working with
Climate East Midlands to develop and disseminate best practice, the Council
will continue to maintain its high levels of performance.
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Appendix 1
A Summary of the local climate impacts profile for
Leicestershire
See separate file.
Appendix 2
Departmental Climate Change Resilience Action Plans
See separate file
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