ATEC-4DWX Project
1.
Monthly Progress Report
December 2008
This document
This is a monthly report of NCAR’s progress on tasks listed in the ATEC-4DWX Project’s annual statement of work
(SOW) for FY09. Descriptions of tasks are abbreviated. For full descriptions, please refer to the SOW. The
sections, subsections, and tasks are numbered to match those in the SOW, which is why this document contains no
section 3.
2.
Themes and goals for the fiscal year
During FY09 NCAR will turn more attention to customizing 4DWX for each range by optimizing the configuration
of the NWP core of the system (e.g., number of vertical levels) and by exploring ways of improving or adding to the
coupled applications driven by the NWP model’s output. The 4DWX ensemble will be extended to ATC, in
demonstration mode, and it will be calibrated. This will be the first year of a multi-year reduction in the resources
spent on graphical applications; NCAR will increasingly rely on third-party applications, for which NCAR will
provide data translators. MetVault will play a key role in this reduction. The Web Portal will become the ranges’
chief interface to 4DWX.
4.
Programmatic tasks
4.1
In-process review
A. IPRs
Report: No work.
4.2
Forecasters’ Training
A. Forecasters Training
Report: An agenda and list of participants is being compiled.
4.3
Internships
A. ATEC internships
Report: No work.
5.
5.1
Technical tasks
Support
A. Help Desk
Report: Standard support is on-going. Statistics for 4DWX support and operations will be updated every quarter.
B. 4DWX Knowledge Base
Report: Standard maintenance is on-going.
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C. Teleconferences with each range
Report: Teleconferences with ranges—collectively and rotated individually—are being held regularly. Over the
last three months, these were convened:
 October:
1st - all ranges
8th - DPG
21st - ATC (security topics)
29th - EPG
 November:
5th - all ranges
19th - WSMR
26th - DPG
 December:
3rd - all ranges
10th - CRTC
17th - YPG
5.2
Customization of 4DWX for each range
A. Simulated soundings for WSMR
Report: Analysis of simulations is on-going, and a draft report, which has been started, will be completed and
submitted to John Pace and WSMR before the Forecasters’ Training in February. An additional set of simulations is
being run for two new cases that include simultaneous soundings from Main Post and multiple other sites on the
range, bringing the total number of cases to eight, covering multiple seasons.
B. Gridded bias correction of WRF model
Report: The verification and validation of the operational framework will be benchmarked against the Hacker-Rife
prototype within the next two weeks, then code will be handed off to another project engineer for operational
implementation, which will initially take place at one ATEC range in Q2 of FY2009, then at other ranges after that.
C. Polar WRF model
Report: Code, documentation, and verification statistics from initial tests in the Antarctic and Greenland have been
supplied by D. Bromwich and K. Hines from Ohio State University. The ATEC-4DWX NWP working group has
defined a plan for initial implementation and testing of the polar code in 4DWX. The timeline depends on getting
WRF v3 installed for CRTC.
D. Enhance WRF model physics for CRTC
Report: See C above. Also, the upgrade to standard WRF v3 may produce some improvement in physical
parameterizations.
E. Cold-air damming’s local affects at ATC
Report: Operational E-RTFDDA demonstration is currently being run for ATC on the ATEC HPC. Runs will
continue through part of January, then the E-RTFDDA will be returned to DPG by the end of January. This
ensemble is the most efficient means of simultaneously testing CAD forecasts’ sensitivity to some model
configuration, physics options, etc. Several “atypical” CAD cases were identified and model data are archived.
There is a larger ensemble spread to the east of Appalachian during the CAD periods, which indicates obvious
sensitivity to model configurations. We’ll work together with ATC forecasters to isolate a few case days for
detailed analysis.
F. Improved forecasts of gravity waves at WSMR
Report: No work.
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G. E-RTFDDA output for CMAQ at UDAQ
Report: Data were sent to UDAQ. No feedback from UDAQ yet. We assume that they are now using the data.
H. Surface snow cover and depth downscaling scheme for DPG and CRTC
Report: No work.
I. Three-dimensional sound ray-tracing package
Report: No work.
J. Derivation of Cn2 from 4DWX output
Report: Results from a recent report written through funding from a different project are being summarized from an
ATEC-4DWX perspective, to be presented at the April IPR. For the report, the WRF model version 2.2 was run for
10 July days over the Southwestern states. Model output was processed with an algorithm that estimates optical
(visible) and electromagnetic (GPS) Cn2 parameters. Results were compared to observed optical Cn2 parameter
profiles. In general, the model performed well, although as expected, the observations exhibit much more
variability.
K. Sensitivity of NAPS to parameterizations in the WRF model
Report: No work.
L. Alternatives to NAPS
Report: No work.
5.3
User applications
A. Graphical tool for viewing 4DWX’s verification statistics
Report: Work was transferred from the engineer in charge of original design to the engineer who will see it through
to operational installation. The GUI will be demonstrated at the Forecaster’s Training in February and May.
B. Object-oriented verification of precipitation
Report: No work.
C. Verification of 4DWX mesoscale ensemble
Report: On hold while we waited for transfer of 4 months of forecast data from DPG, which is just now complete.
Next steps are to interpolate the forecast data to the observation sites then to conduct a retrospective
calibration/verification of temperature with the recently developed R&D calibration code.
D. Operational forecast aids
Report: Revising manuscript that has been provisionally accepted for publication. Deadline: 03 March 2009.
E. MetVault
Report: Development work is progressing to support MM5 and WRF forecast model data in the MetVault
repository and to add new features to save and retrieve search settings. We are also investigating the possibility of
supporting GEMPAK and IDV graphics tools.
F. 4DWX Web Portal
Report: New development work for v2.0 is nearing completion with a focus on upgrading the portal base code and
adding range-requested features.
G. GMOD
Report: Responsibility for this application was transferred to Tatiana Burek, who is also lead engineer for the Web
Portal.
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H. MIR
Report: Changes required for the Web Portal v2.0 release have been implemented.
I. Maintenance of JViz and plan for retirement
Report: Maintenance on-going as needed. Investigation of IDV as a JViz replacement is ongoing.
5.4
NWP modeling
A. Upgrade to WRF model v3
Report: Code has been upgraded to Model Manager CVS system (a shared and inter-project resource for NSAP
modeling). The Model Manager working group had been working on RTFDDA upgrades. Parallel test runs with
WRF v2 and WRF v3 for YPG are available at http://www.4dwx.org/display/. The operational upgrade at YPG will
likely occur in February. Upgrades at other ranges will follow.
B. Refine nudging scheme in RTFDDA
Report: No work.
C. Hybrid data-assimilation scheme
Report: Diagnosed radar-data problems and reran the week-long IHOP period.
D. Calibration of 30-member ensemble
Report: Transferred a 4-month DPG archive data from the HPC to NCAR and are working on those data. The plan
is to implement the calibration system and to be ready to turn it on shortly after the DPG ensemble is resumed at the
end of January.
E. Demonstration ensemble for ATC
Report: The demonstration has been running successfully for the month. Feedback from the forecasters is positive.
F. Dynamical selection of potential ensemble members
Report: No work.
G. Ensemble of global models to prescribe initial and boundary conditions for 4DWX ensemble
Report: No work.
H. General improvements to E-RTFDDA perturbation schemes.
Report: No work.
I. MODIS SSTs in 4DWX system
Report: We discovered what appear to be weaknesses in NASA’s quality control; invalid retrievals under cloudy
conditions are being included in the distributed datasets. Experts on MODIS data are being consulted and we are
designing additional quality-control steps that will be added to our processes algorithms.
J. Other general improvements to 4DWX
Report: We conducted LES modeling for DPG Granite Mountain Drainage flow. The goal is to study the capability
and limitations of WRF-LES in simulations with small-scale step mountain effects on local-scale flows. We are one
of the first groups to run and study WRF-LES for real cases.
5.5
Auto-Nowcaster and convective weather forecasting
A. RTTC’s use of LMA data from UAH
Report: We have not heard from Leo Lachapelle after our email exchange and need to contact Leo again. Wiebke
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Deierling will be at Huntsville for the month of February and that may be a good time to address the issues related to
use of LMA data at RTTC.
B. ANC at EPG
Report: A written estimate of the cost of installation is still being crafted.
C. Short-term lightning potential forecasts at EPG
Report: Installation of a new MRRD with a better display, a fix of the Lightning Storm Potential product, and
covering an expanded area with more radars all seem to have paid off. Due to some staff turnover at the range, the
staff there who use it are new to the application, and they like it, according to a recent teleconference.
D. VLAS at DPG
Report: Delayed because the CTI lidar is not on the network.
E. VDRAS and ANC at DPG
Report: Delayed for hardware installation.
F. Long-term probabilistic forecasts of lightning at WSMR
Report: Evaluated RT-FDDA output and lightning potential product at WSMR. Initial results show that the modelbased lightning potential forecasts show skill at predicting the lightning threat. Location, timing, and intensity of the
lightning potential forecast depend crucially on how well the model predicts the small scale convection. Future
work includes computing statistics for a larger data set and for forecasts out to 48 hours. A conference paper was
prepared for AMS Annual Meeting.
G. Refined ANC forecast logic at WSMR
Report: Investigation into using the LMA within the ANC continues, with one case being analyzed. A conference
paper was prepared for the AMS Annual Meeting.
H. Upgrade of VDRAS at WSMR
Report: Not much progress since last month, owing to the holidays, but it is close to operating in test mode.
I. AP ground clutter removal at WSMR
Report: No work.
J. Operational support for the ANC and ANC-Lite
Report: WSMR hopes to have the real-time LMA feed fixed soon. The database upgrade knocked out the delivery
of surface data to the WSMR ANC. That has been fixed.
5.6
Tasks funded through other sources but leveraged to benefit ATEC-4DWX project
A. STAR Institute’s CFDDA climatographies for the ATEC ranges
Report: A test of one month’s WRF simulations on the WSMR domain were re-run with a new version of the WRF
FDDA code with important bug fixes, which was released by NCAR on December 12th. The newly generated WRF
V3 output files are being processed for validation against local data collected at the range. Adopting this newly
released code is important but has slightly delayed progress.
5.7
Hardware, operating systems, and security
A. Data storage
Report: None purchased.
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B. New office computers for project staff
Report: None purchased.
C. GPU and/or cell technology
Report: No work.
D. Consolidation of 4DWX model runs
Report: No work.
E. Operating systems
Report: DAS operating system upgrades continue as part of the DAS 3.0 release.
F. Security
Report: Standard monitoring and support is on-going.
G. Clusters
Report: Work continues to get smac-c3 fully operational.
5.8
Management
A. NCAR’s project management
Report: No change.
5.9
Administration and miscellany
A. Proposal to use MSRC facilities to run a very large ensemble
Report: No work.
B. Articles, posters, and talks
Report: Several staff presented work at the AGU meeting in December. Summaries will appear in the report for
January.
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APPENDICES
A
Acronyms
4DWX
4DWXDB
AP
ATEC
ATC
AUSA
CFDDA
CMAQ
COAMPS
CRTC
CVS
DPG
EPG
ERTFDDA
GMOD
GPU
HPC
HPCMP
IPR
KB
LMA
MIR
MIPR
MODIS
MODTRAN
MSFC
MSRC
MYJ scheme
NAPS
NASA
NCAR
NCEP
NRL
NSAP
NSF
NVL
NWP
PBL
RAL
RTFDDA
RTTC
SST
STAR Inst.
UAH
VLAS
VDRAS
WRF model
WSMR
YPG
YSU
Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation and Forecast System
4DWX database
Anomalous propagation
U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command
Aberdeen Test Center
Association of the U. S. Army
Climate FDDA
Community Multiscale Air Quality Model
Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System
Cold Regions Test Center
Concurrent Versioning System
Dugway Proving Ground
Electronics Proving Ground
Ensemble-RTFDDA
Global Meteorology on Demand
Game processing unit
High performance computer
HPC Modernization Program
In-process review
Knowledge Base
Lightning mapping array
Meteorological Information Repository
Military Interdepartmental Procurement Request
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer
Moderate resolution atmospheric transmission
Marshall Space Flight Center
Major Shared Resource Center
Mellor-Yamada-Janjic
Noise Assessment and Prediction System
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
National Center for Atmospheric Research
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Naval Research Laboratory
National Security Applications Program (within NCAR RAL)
National Science Foundation
Night Vision Laboratory
Numerical weather prediction
Planetary boundary layer
Research Applications Laboratory
Real-Time Four-Dimensional Data Assimilations system
Redstone Technical Test Center
Sea-surface temperature
Science and Technology in Atmospheric Research Institute
University of Alabama at Huntsville
Variational Lidar Analysis System
Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System
Weather Research and Forecasting Model
White Sands Missile Range
Yuma Proving Ground
Yonsei University
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Detailed milestones of selected tasks
Development of hybrid data assimilation

Implement 3DVAR and hybrid algorithms in operational RTFDDA system control framework, and test
continuously cycling for a one-week period of active moist convection during IHOP-2002. Also conduct
baseline modeling with RTFDDA and hybrid 3DVAR DA without radar data.

Tune the system engineering and scientific performance for the 1 week IHOP period.

Develop radar data pre-processing procedures including data QC, and interpolation for ATC domain 2 and
3. Run the hybrid RTFDDA at ATC in parallel with the ATC operational RTFDDA system for
comparison.

Operationally deploy for ATC and start work on other ranges.

Incorporate other data (e.g., satellite radiance, GPS precipitable water) into hybrid RTFDDA.
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