Tamkang University Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies Master’s Thesis Proposal Advisor: 李大中 (Da-jung Li), Ph.D. ASEAN and Disaster Management in the New Century: Response and Implications of the 2004 Indian Ocean Disaster Agustin A. Julio, 古立鷗 GIIASS, II year 699330519 Republic of China November 1, 2011 Student: Agustin A. Julio, 古立鷗 699330519 Thesis Advisor: 李大中, Da-jung Li (Ph.D.) Date: November 1, 2011 THESIS PROPOSAL OUTLINE I. Thesis Title……………………………………………………… 3 II. Thesis Background……………………………………………. 3 – 13 III. Research Objectives………………………………………….. 14 IV. Research Scope………………………………………………... 15 V. Theoretical Framework……………………………………….. 15 VI. Hypothesis……………………………………………………... 16 VII. Methodology................................................................................ 16 VIII. Literature Review…………………………………………….. 17 – 21 IX. Chapter Arrangement………………………………………… 22 – 24 X. Bibliography……………………………………………………. 25 – 33 2 Student: Agustin A. Julio, 古立鷗 699330519 Thesis Advisor: 李大中, Da-jung Li (Ph.D.) Date: November 1, 2011 I. Thesis Title: “ASEAN and Disaster Management in the New Century: Response and implications of the 2004 Indian Ocean Disaster”. II. Thesis Background: What is the real capacity of reaction and response by ASEAN on disasters during the 21st Century? What are its working mechanisms? What great successes and criticisms have been made to its system? Is the ASEAN Disaster Management body appropriate for a region so prone to disasters caused by nature and mankind? This thesis will investigate all of these concerns throughout a central objective: to analyze the response and regional cooperation in South East Asia in the context of Disaster Management in the 21st century, having as an example the damage caused by the earthquake and tsunami in the Indian Ocean in 2004, and its actions taken until today in order to reduce the risk of future hazards in the region. Disaster management at regional level in South East Asia is quite recently. Historically, it can be traced back to the early seventies, a few years after the founding of the organization known as the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). It is necessary to remember that ASEAN was born with the Bangkok Declaration on August 8, 1967, having as its founding members and signatories of this statement Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. ASEAN was established with the purposes, among many other objectives, to accelerate the economic growth in the South East Asian area, the work on social progress, cultural development among its members, the protection of peace and regional stability and to provide its member states the necessary opportunities to discuss and resolve their differences peacefully1. 1 ASEAN, The ASEAN Declaration (Bangkok Declaration), http://www.asean.org/1212.htm, (accessed November 15, 2011). 8 August 1967, 3 Student: Agustin A. Julio, 古立鷗 699330519 Thesis Advisor: 李大中, Da-jung Li (Ph.D.) Date: November 1, 2011 a. South East Asian Regionalism The definition of the concept of regionalism can be summoned up as the expression of a general sense of identity and principles combined with the conception and implementation of institutions that articulate a particular identity and shape collective action within a geographical region. Moreover, Joseph Nye made a distinction between an International region and regionalism. For the first one he refers as “as a limited number of states linked by a geographical relationship and by a degree of mutual interdependence” and regionalism as “the formation of interstate associations or groupings on the basis of regions”2. Being ASEAN the organization more representative of the South East Asia region, is thus the regional apprehension of the concepts of stability and development the predominant ones. Given this concern, the ASEAN member countries could not ignore a problem that they have been experiencing for thousands of years, often at present as well: disasters. South East Asia is one of the most active regions in the world prone to disasters. Recurrent and harmful activity makes the area to annually face a number of significant disasters that primarily affects the population (threat to human lives), infrastructure, economy, and in larger terms, regional security. The disruption or lack of real security can negatively influence social behavior. The social factor can lead to countless acts of violence, looting and conflicts over scarce resources. b. Disasters and Disaster Management Now, it is time to raise another key question in order to understand the central topic in which this research is based on: what is a disaster? It is commonly known as a natural or man-made hazard that has come to culmination, resulting in an event of substantial extent causing significant physical damage or destruction, loss of life, or drastic change to the environment. The Virtual University for Small States of the Commonwealth (VUSSC) in its “Introduction to Disaster Management” defines disaster as “a situation in which the community is incapable of coping. It is a natural or humancaused event which causes intense negative impacts on people, goods, services and/or the environment, exceeding the affected community’s capability to respond; therefore Joseph Nye, “Introduction” in International Regionalism: Readings, ed. Joseph Nye (Boston: Little, Brown and Company, 1968), vii. 2 4 Student: Agustin A. Julio, 古立鷗 699330519 Thesis Advisor: 李大中, Da-jung Li (Ph.D.) Date: November 1, 2011 the community seeks the assistance of government and international agencies”3. Then, it is mandatory to distinguish two kinds of disasters: naturals (i.e., geological, meteorological, hydrological and extraterrestrial) and man-made (i.e., technological and terrorism). The concept of disaster can better simplify in this friendly formula: (VULNERABILITY+ HAZARD) / CAPACITY = DISASTER4. This response leads to another important question: so, what is Disaster Management? Disaster Management can be defined as a process or strategy that is implemented when any type of catastrophic event takes place. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies for example, defines Disaster Management “as the organization and management of resources and responsibilities for dealing with all humanitarian aspects of emergencies, in particular preparedness, response and recovery in order to lessen the impact of disasters”5. c. Disaster Management in South East Asia Having these definitions in mind it is now possible to continue and clarify the importance of Disaster Management in SEA. In order to prepare for and minimize the potential damage from these disasters, in 1971 for the first time ever was established the ASEAN Expert Group on Disaster Management (AEGDM), composed mainly by disaster management experts from member countries from that time. This is the first regional joint work for preparation as an organization and address a problem that afflicted and will afflict the region for posterity. A couple of years later, on June 26, 1976, during an ASEAN meeting in Manila, the “ASEAN Declaration on Mutual Assistance on Natural Disasters” was signed. The declaration pointed out that in case of a natural catastrophe there might be a lack of financial and human resources. Also, it was agreed to provide a catastrophe-stricken country with materials and medical supplies. Also, each country was supposed to designate a national government agency acting as an internal coordinating body. These 3 Virtual University for the Small States of the Commonwealth (VUSSC), Introduction to Disaster Management, October 1, 2010, accessed November 27, 2011, http://www.col.org/SiteCollectionDocuments/Disaster_Management_version_1.0.pdf. 4 International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), What is a Disaster?, accessed November 28, 2011, http://www.ifrc.org/en/what-we-do/disaster-management/about-disasters/what-is-adisaster/. 5 International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), About Disaster Management, accessed November 27, 2011, http://www.ifrc.org/en/what-we-do/disaster-management/about-disastermanagement/). 5 Student: Agustin A. Julio, 古立鷗 699330519 Thesis Advisor: 李大中, Da-jung Li (Ph.D.) Date: November 1, 2011 agencies should gather and exchange data pertaining to natural disasters. These government bodies were to implement relief cooperation plans. Yet the declaration failed to call for a central institution that could have organized an ASEAN-wide relief effort6. However, it was not until 2002, through the 12th meeting of the ASEAN Expert Group on Disaster Management (AEGDM), that was finally decided to give a more serious and professional framework to the issue of disaster management. In September 2002, the experts agreed to restructure and upgrade the AEGDM to an ASEAN Committee on Disaster Management (ACDM). The ACDM was established following the decision of the ASEAN Standing Committee (ASC). The ACDM is responsible for disaster management among all ASEAN states. It is indeed one of the most important committees of ASEAN due to the recurrent and highly active natural disaster region. Also, they decided to intensify their efforts by meeting on an annual basis. Furthermore, the declaration stated that all decisions of the ACDM should be endorsed by the ASEAN states. These endorsements were to be obtained by meetings or by written papers of intent facilitated by the secretariat in Jakarta7. The ACDM is headed by a Chair, who is supported by a Vice-Chair. The ACDM Chair is primarily tasked to initiate and direct the execution of the Work Programme activities through the Working Groups. The Chair should provide overall supervision of the Working Groups to achieve efficiency in the use of resources and successfully attain the expected outcomes. In the event that the Chair of ACDM is not able to direct and manage the tasks and responsibilities of ACDM or is unable to chair the meeting(s), the Chair shall direct the Vice-Chair to assume such duties. The Chair and Vice-Chair are appointed on the basis of rotational and alphabetical order of Member States8. The ACDM shall meet at least once a year. Participation of ASEAN Member States, ASEAN Secretariat and ASEAN Humanitarian Centre (AHA Centre) at the ACDM meetings is on a self-financing basis, particularly for the full-fledged meetings, which are normally held in the first quarter of the year. However, some meetings may be held back to back with relevant project meetings and exercises to synergize on ASEAN Secretariat, “ASEAN Declaration on Mutual Assistance on Natural disaster“, http://www.aseansec.org/10166.htm (accessed November 26, 2011). 7 ACDM, “Mandate. ASEAN Committee on Disaster Management”, http://www.acdm.net/index.php?module=pagemaster&PAGE_user_op=view_page&AGE_id=4 &MMN_position=3:3, (accessed November 26, 2011). 8 Ibid. 6 6 Student: Agustin A. Julio, 古立鷗 699330519 Thesis Advisor: 李大中, Da-jung Li (Ph.D.) Date: November 1, 2011 funding support and travel. The Chair may invite relevant Dialogue Partners and key partner organizations to the open sessions of the ACDM meetings to promote collaboration and partnerships. The functions of the ACDM are several and different. The ASEAN Committee on Disaster Management (ACDM) shall perform the following functions, among others listed in the ACDM Terms of Reference: 1. “Provide leadership and guidance towards fulfilling the goals and objectives of AADMER in pursuant of the vision of disaster-resilient nations and safer communities within ASEAN by 2015; 2. Initiate, direct and oversee the development, monitoring and implementation of the AADMER Work Programme and other related decisions and initiatives implemented by the respective Working Groups; 3. Strengthen coordination with relevant ASEAN bodies to complement the implementation of disaster management activities and promote effective integration of relevant and related programmes and activities; 4. Collaborate with ASEAN’s Dialogue Partners, international and multilateral agencies, NGOs and the private sector to advance the objectives of AADMER; 5. Enhance sharing of resources and information on disaster management and promote collaborative disaster research activities; 6. Plan and coordinate all activities required for convening of meetings, in coordination with the host Member State and ASEAN Secretariat; and 7. Present reports and provide recommendations related to AADMER to the COP for their consideration.”9 d. The 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Having reviewed the efforts done by ASEAN on Disaster Management until 2004, it is important to see these goals in action by examining one of the most iconic disasters in the history of human-kind, the 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami that triggered not only death and destruction but also the support and critics from the world community on how ASEAN reacted to that natural disaster. Near Sumatra Island in Indonesia, there is a complex structure of tectonic plates involving the Burma plate, with the India and Australia plate to the west and the Sunda and Eurasian plates to the east. These plates are continually grinding against each other. They move very slowly -only at about the rate, on average, that a fingernail grows. Serious problems happen at sub-duction zones where one plate dives underneath the “ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response”. Work programme 20102015. Adopted by the 15th Meeting of the ASEAN Committee on Disaster Management (ACDM), 11-12 March 2010, Singapore. EAN 9 7 Student: Agustin A. Julio, 古立鷗 699330519 Thesis Advisor: 李大中, Da-jung Li (Ph.D.) Date: November 1, 2011 edge of an adjoining plate10. Force builds up -sometimes over hundreds of years- until a rupture occurs and generates a violent earthquake. On December 26th, 2004, the day after Christmas - at 0758 local time (0058 GMT), an unusually powerful rupture occurred which generated a magnitude 9.15 earthquake “about [100 miles] 160 kilometers...off the coast of Indonesia's Sumatra Island at a depth of about [6.2 miles] 10 kilometers....”11. The earthquake was caused by sub-duction and triggered a series of devastating tsunamis along the coasts of most landmasses bordering the Indian Ocean. Besides killing more than 230,000 people, the tsunami also left millions of survivors without food or shelter. Thousands were injured or felt sick because of sanitary conditions. The coastal regions of four ASEAN members were hit by the tidal wave: Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar and Thailand. Aceh, a province at Indonesia’s northwestern tip, suffered the most fatalities: more than 100,000 persons were killed and about 500,000 were injured or left without shelter. The tsunami also struck the northwestern coast of Malaysia, where the deaths of at least 68 people were confirmed 12. e. ASEAN Response to the disaster Right away after the earthquake and tsunami of 2004, ASEAN member countries reacted openly to the calamity. Singapore sent off 700 Air Force and Civil Defense Force personnel for military and rescue operations to assist the relief labors. Singapore was one of the first countries to assist Indonesia in managing the disaster relief. Singapore offered to raise its humanitarian assistance to US$ 3 million. One day after the disaster, Malaysia dispatched its “Special Malaysia Disaster Assistance and Rescue Team” to Indonesia. It was the earliest team to arrive at the scene13. The Malaysian government announced that it had dispatched at least 300 soldiers to Aceh. Also, the Malaysian government announced its intentions to set up a relief center, in which at least 10,000 survivors of the catastrophe were to be sheltered. Additionally, at the request of the Indonesian government, the Malaysians sent one of their Royal Navy vessels including personnel to Aceh. The Malaysian government What on Earth. “Example from Indonesian Islands, Plate Tectonics”, http://whatonearth.olehnielsen.dk/Tectonics.asp, (accessed November 15, 2011). 11 CNN.com, “Asia quake death toll tops 13,000”, 27 December 2004, http://edition.cnn.com/ (accessed November 16, 2011). 12 BBC website. “Malaysia issues tsunami warning“, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asiapacific/4241285.stm (accessed November 16, 2011) 13 Ibid. 10 8 Student: Agustin A. Julio, 古立鷗 699330519 Thesis Advisor: 李大中, Da-jung Li (Ph.D.) Date: November 1, 2011 announced its plan to implement an official tsunami warning system by the end of this year. Brunei has offered to take part in this project, which is said to cost an estimated US$ 5 million14. However, despite the efforts made by countries members of ASEAN to offer relief for the affected populations, ASEAN as the regional institution in the tsunami-hit area was hardly mentioned in the media. Instead, the US, the UN and the Asian powers (China and Japan) were recognized as the major players in the relief efforts. The reports mainly focused on ASEAN’s contribution in hosting the tsunami aftermath conference. The fact that ASEAN failed to cooperate on disaster relief, mainly contributed to its minor role in public attention. On January 6th 2005, during the tsunami aftermath meeting, the ASEAN leaders issued a “declaration on action to strengthen emergency relief, rehabilitation, reconstruction and prevention on the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami disaster of December 26, 2004” 15. They expressed their condolences and solidarity. They stated that the tsunami disaster calls for global response and appreciated the vast international help received. Furthermore, they confirmed the leading role of the UN in the disaster relief. ASEAN indirectly admitted their deficit in facing the tsunami disaster and proclaimed their plans for improving disaster relief. Further, ASEAN leaders stated that they will support the affected countries in rehabilitating and reconstructing. They welcomed the offer of several creditor countries, which were willing to take the financial pressures off affected countries by a “moratorium of payments”. Also, ASEAN leaders wanted to persuade the private sector to participate in the rehabilitation and reconstruction. In this declaration, ASEAN announced steps which should be implemented urgently in order to minimize the post-calamity damage. This declaration was similar to other papers of intent, which had been put forward after previous states of emergency, such as the haze catastrophe of 1997. The declaration concerning the tsunami makes it clear that ASEAN seems to acknowledge its deficits in coping with disaster relief, especially when ASEAN speaks of having to “strengthen coordination and cooperation”. The declaration showed some powerlessness on behalf of ASEAN, as it has many institutions but no real central organization, which would have been important for 14 Ibid. ASEAN Secretariat, “Special ASEAN’s meeting on aftermath on earthquake and tsunami. Jakarta, 6th of January 2005”, http://www.aseansec.org/17066.htm (accessed November 20, 2011). 15 9 Student: Agustin A. Julio, 古立鷗 699330519 Thesis Advisor: 李大中, Da-jung Li (Ph.D.) Date: November 1, 2011 organizing the cooperation of the relief efforts. Thus the principle problems of cooperation on the ASEAN level became evident through the tsunami situation. Captivatingly sufficient, the declaration does not state, whether ASEAN should assume a leading role in immediate disaster relief or reconstruction efforts. Further, ASEAN emphasized the need for international aid and the important role of the UN. This chain of reasoning on part of ASEAN showed its inability to cope with a scenario such as after the tsunami. The declaration thus reveals that ASEAN, even after 30 years of existence, has not managed to build up a structure enough to provide a pivoting point for decision-making and immediate response efforts among the member countries. This adherence to sovereignty leads ASEAN into a system of checks and balances, which in turn lessens the effectiveness of any cooperative project16. Another problem of ASEAN is the inability to discuss problems on a public platform. Hence, structural faults are not recognized as such. Rather than admitting weaknesses within the system, ASEAN states are committed to the principle of a strong state, which does not allow for trying different solutions. e. The European Union Response The EU reacted quickly, providing emergency humanitarian assistance within hours after the tsunami struck “… by approving a €3 million grant to the Red Cross (ECHO 2005)... In the next few days, another €20 million was approved, which went mostly to the World Food Programme, the World Health Organization and UNICEF (ECHO 2005), and experts were sent to do humanitarian needs assessments”17. The EU was represented at the highest level in the Summit meeting held in Jakarta on 7 January on the tsunami aftermath. An emergency meeting of EU Foreign, Development and Health Ministers was held in Brussels on 7 January. The Council adopted an Action Plan on 31 January 2005 in response to the disaster. This was updated by the UK Presidency and reviewed by the Council and Commission at the General Affairs and External Relations Council on 21-22 November. Progress will be reviewed again under the Austrian Presidency. Louise Fawcett, “Exploring Regional Domains: A Comparative History of Regionalism”, in: International Affairs 80, No 3. (2004): 444. 17 Marlies Glasius, “The EU response to the Asian tsunami and the need for a human security approach” in The European Union and Human Security - External Interventions and Missions, ed. Mary Martin et.al. (USA:Routledge, 2009), 35-36. 16 10 Student: Agustin A. Julio, 古立鷗 699330519 Thesis Advisor: 李大中, Da-jung Li (Ph.D.) Date: November 1, 2011 The European Commission and Member States pledged more than €2 billion in assistance for tsunami-affected countries of which €566 million is for humanitarian assistance and the remainder for rehabilitation and reconstruction. €452 million (80%) of humanitarian aid has been spent. €902 million (60%) of rehabilitation and reconstruction aid has been committed and €367 million disbursed. The European Investment Bank18 signed loans for a total of €170 million in Indonesia, Sri Lanka and the Maldives. Additional loans of €396 million were pledged by Member States. f. Critics to ASEAN Disaster Management system and new implementations Following the tsunami, an early warning system for the whole Indian Ocean region was the subject of several international conferences. The UN was asked to work out an interim decentralized network. Cooperation and coordination are important for an effective warning system. Nevertheless, there have been disputes among ASEAN members about the location of the warning system. Indonesia, India and Thailand all insisted on being the best country to host the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC)19. In its declaration of January 6th 2005, ASEAN recognized the importance of the UN in the disaster relief effort and called for international assistance for the affected countries. The tsunami-hit countries also welcomed the global disaster relief assistance. The difference between the regional institution of ASEAN and the global institution of the UN exists due to the interests of their member countries. UN members have no interest in engaging in disputes over disaster relief efforts. The tsunami disaster made evident the insufficient structure of ASEAN and its inability to deal with disaster relief. This calamity might enhance the pressure for reform. Other crises also lead to a call for reforms. The big disaster experienced in South East Asia opened the door to focus more attention into develop better measures and policies concerning disaster management. 18 The European Investment Bank is the European Union's long-term lending institution established in 1958 under the Treaty of Rome. A policy-driven bank, the EIB supports the EU’s priority objectives, especially European integration and the development of economically weak regions. Recently, the Bank has also been actively supporting European R&D projects as part of EU's objective of building the world's leading knowledge-based economy. The EIB is an international financial institution, a publicly owned bank. Its owners are the Member States of the European Union, who subscribe to the Bank's capital EUR 232 billion (end of 2009). For more information, please visit the European Investment Bank’s website at: http://www.eib.org/ 19 BBC website “Malaysia issues tsunami warning“, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asiapacific/4241285.stm (accessed November 16, 2011). 11 Student: Agustin A. Julio, 古立鷗 699330519 Thesis Advisor: 李大中, Da-jung Li (Ph.D.) Date: November 1, 2011 Often these disasters transcend national borders and overwhelm the capacities of individual countries to manage them. Most countries in the region have limited financial resources and physical resilience. Furthermore, the level of preparedness and prevention varies from country to country and regional cooperation does not exist to the extent necessary. Because of this high vulnerability and the relatively small size of most of the ASEAN countries, it will be more efficient and economically prudent for the countries to cooperate in the areas of civil protection, and disaster preparedness and prevention. ASEAN is often cited in papers as the most notable example of regional group in Asia. Yet, after the tsunami disaster, ASEAN was hardly ever mentioned in media reports on immediate relief efforts. Coordination of mutual interests among the diverse states is still difficult. One reason is that the ASEAN member countries are still trying to different degrees to establish their political legitimacy. In addition, they are committed to the ideal of sovereignty even though this may often be impossible to attain. Thus the importance of legitimacy and sovereignty to the ASEAN member countries remains an obstacle for effective coordination. It is therefore important for ASEAN to strengthen its cooperation and overcome the ASEAN dilemma whether or not ASEAN is willing to change its structure and its policy in order to manage future challenges. The Indian Ocean tsunami disaster highlighted both the need for effective early warning systems and also the political and technological complexity of providing them. The UN -including UNESCO’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) - has an important coordinating role to play in addressing these challenges. Regional inter-governmental organizations have the potential to be key implementing bodies. With the aim of reducing ASEAN’s vulnerability to the risk of disasters, the World Bank, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR)20, through the Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction (GFDRR), and in collaboration with other international partners have started support for implementing the ASEAN Agreement for Disaster Management Emergency Response (AADMER) to promote 20 Created in December 1999, UNISDR is the secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR). It is the successor to the secretariat of the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction with the purpose of ensuring the implementation of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (General Assembly (GA) resolution 54/219). The mandate of UNISDR expanded in 2001 to serve as the focal point in the United Nations system for the coordination of disaster reduction and to ensure synergies among the disaster reduction activities of the United Nations system and regional organizations and activities in socio-economic and humanitarian fields (GA resolution 56/195). 12 Student: Agustin A. Julio, 古立鷗 699330519 Thesis Advisor: 李大中, Da-jung Li (Ph.D.) Date: November 1, 2011 sustainable development in the ASEAN region. The AADMER is a regional legally binding agreement that binds ASEAN Member States together to promote regional cooperation and collaboration in reducing disaster losses and intensifying joint emergency response to disasters in the ASEAN region. AADMER is also ASEAN’s affirmation of its commitment to the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (HFA)21. The HFA, endorsed by 168 countries, is coordinated by UNISDR to provide nations and communities the roadmap to disaster proof the significant development gains. 21 The HFA is the first plan to explain, describe and detail the work that is required from all different sectors and actors to reduce disaster losses. It was developed and agreed on with the many partners needed to reduce disaster risk - governments, international agencies, disaster experts and many others bringing them into a common system of coordination. The HFA outlines five priorities for action, and offers guiding principles and practical means for achieving disaster resilience. Its goal is to substantially reduce disaster losses by 2015 by building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters. This means reducing loss of lives and social, economic, and environmental assets when hazards strike. More information available at http://www.unisdr.org/we/coordinate/hfa 13 Student: Agustin A. Julio, 古立鷗 699330519 Thesis Advisor: 李大中, Da-jung Li (Ph.D.) Date: November 1, 2011 III. Research Objectives: a. Main Objective: Analyze the response and regional cooperation in South East Asia in the context of Disaster Management in the 21st century, having as an example the damage caused by the earthquake and tsunami in the Indian Ocean in 2004, and its actions taken until today in order to reduce the risk of future hazards in the region. b. Specific Objectives: 1. Define the concept of disaster through its classifications (natural or man-made) and phases of recognition. 2. Describe the concept of Disaster Management through its definition, overview, phases that integrates it and principles. 3. Illustrate the concept of regional cooperation in Disaster Management in South East Asia by the agencies, institutions and mechanisms that comprises it, having ASEAN as a major and real exponent. 4. Examine ASEAN’s participation in its response to the 2004 disaster, its actions and implications. 5. Compare and contrast ASEAN’s response in the disaster with other international actors that provided aid and relief, such as the European Union and the United Nations (through their specialized agencies) and cooperation among them. 6. Evaluate by post-2004 disaster actions and conclusions the regional preparedness and response of South East Asian disaster management mechanisms during the 21st century. 14 Student: Agustin A. Julio, 古立鷗 699330519 Thesis Advisor: 李大中, Da-jung Li (Ph.D.) Date: November 1, 2011 IV. Research Scope: 1. This research focuses on disaster management measures implemented in South East Asia, particularly by the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in order to mitigate, prepare, response and recover from potential hazards in the region. However, due to the broad field of disaster management, this thesis will mostly centers on natural disasters but some background and relevant information on man-made disasters are to be presented as well. The exemplary case of the 2004 Indian Ocean disaster will lead this research to analyze the reaction by ASEAN disaster management mechanisms, it implications and critics of its actions. This event helped to fix some of the deficiencies and have a more holistic view in constructing a professional platform for disaster management in ASEAN. 2. The timeframe of this investigation is the first decade of the 21st century, from 2000 to 2010, commensurate period of analysis. Real intentions of having a working disaster management in the region are recently, the period of 2000 – 2010 is the most fruitful for South East Asia. Nevertheless, a brief historical background will be presented in this thesis, especially since the first motivations by ASEAN members of having a regional framework in disaster management is traced back to the 1970’s. V. Theoretical Framework: At this stage was very difficult to find a theory of International Relations that best adapt to this research. This is one of the first limitations found for the thesis. With further reading and deep understanding of the overall topic, there might be some options to shed a light for the theoretical framework. Some possible theories that can fit (not in perfection) now are the ones related to Regionalism, such as neo-liberalism or neo-liberal institutionalism; Decision-Making; and possible theories engaged with Disaster Management (which could not be linked to International Relations theories. Suggestions will be more than welcomed. 15 Student: Agustin A. Julio, 古立鷗 699330519 Thesis Advisor: 李大中, Da-jung Li (Ph.D.) Date: November 1, 2011 VI. Hypothesis: Disaster Management in South East Asia is recent. ASEAN, through its specialized agencies, is the precursor for regional cooperation in this area having the 2004 Indian Ocean Disaster its most difficult test. From the response for that particular event, ASEAN decided to conduct a series of reforms and the rethinking of the old mechanisms in order to mitigate potential hazards and respond properly to disasters in the future. Natural hazards and disasters are inevitable because we live in a planet that is alive but a safe environment for human life starts with prevention and preparedness. ASEAN will be capable of coping disasters with strong implementations and the sophistication of its disaster management mechanisms. VII. Methodology: A qualitative approach will be used on this research. Most of the analysis will be carried out through documents and books on the specific topics. It will rely on primary sources from ASEAN statements, working documents, declarations, treaties, etc, as well from additional institutions such as individual ASEAN states, European Union and United Nations (by their specialized agencies on disaster management and humanitarian assistance), among others. Secondary sources, textbooks, specialized books, journals, magazines, newspapers and website analysis are essential for further understanding of the issue of disaster management in South East Asia, as well ASEAN’s effort and reactions on the main topic. If possible, this research will be complemented with interviews from experts on the field of disaster and ASEAN, through telephonic conversations and email messages, as well by the assistance to seminars or direct visits to the centers of disaster management in South East Asia. The early use of the Chicago Manual Style will structure the citation format of the recurrent sources and footnotes along the pages of this thesis. Finally, for the elaboration of the main objective and secondary objectives it was used the Bloom’s Taxonomy of Measurable Verbs22. B. S. Bloom et. al., “Taxonomy of educational objectives: the classification of First educational goals”, Handbook I: Cognitive Domain (New York: Longmans, Green, 1956). 22 16 Student: Agustin A. Julio, 古立鷗 699330519 Thesis Advisor: 李大中, Da-jung Li (Ph.D.) Date: November 1, 2011 VIII. Literature Review: This research will use a considerable amount of primary and secondary sources dealing basically with three recognizable subjects: 1. Regionalism in South East Asia; 2. Security issues in South East Asia; and, 3. Disaster Management. Let’s review the most significant secondary sources now. 1. Regionalism in South East Asia. The seminal work by Louise Fawcett and Andrew Hurrell, Regionalism in World Politics: Regional Organization and International Order 23 gives a comprehensive general background for the understanding of the term “regionalism”, substantial for this research because it touches one of the central points of it. This monograph will be used in order to reveal the different institutions and primary ideas around the concept of regionalism. It addresses the question of how regionalism has impacted on the international order, being extensively covered by the authors, as well the significance of the concept. This book also looks to the theories of regionalism; a very important part is dedicated to regional organizations and the United Nations, the natural balance between regionalization and globalization, etc. The section that covers the revival of regionalism and some questions regarding identity and nationalism comprehends an essential overview for the understanding of members of ASEAN in their response to disaster management. The edition made by Andrew Gamble and Anthony Payne titled Regionalism and World Order 24 follows the same pattern as the book mentioned above giving a considerable amount of information concerning the broad picture of what is regionalism, by its origins, significance and its evolution, being possible of linking it with the world order. Emerging blocs and their behavior when dealing with the influence of the U.S. is well discussed too. The author fortunately delivers some case studies of the most advanced regions of the world, being naturally Asia the one of interest to this investigation. 23 Louise Fawcett and Andrew Hurrell, Regionalism in World Politics: Regional Organization and International Order (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996). 24 Andrew Gamble and Anthony Payne, eds., Regionalism and World Order (New York: Macmillan Press, 1996). 17 Student: Agustin A. Julio, 古立鷗 699330519 Thesis Advisor: 李大中, Da-jung Li (Ph.D.) Date: November 1, 2011 Regionalism in Asia. Critical Issues in Modern Politics25, edited by See Seng Tan gives an amazing quantity of excellent information related to regionalism in Asia and it constitutes a substantial piece for narrowing down the central issue of this thesis, regional cooperation in South East Asia through ASEAN issues. Even though it doesn’t cover our topic specifically (disaster management in ASEAN) it is good enough because it gives more details that the other books in this section don’t. It is logically divided in four volumes. The first one explores ASEAN and international relations theory. Volume II focuses on the Association’s history and evolution from its origins to today. Special emphasis will be given to Volume III for the reason that examines panAsian intergovernmental regionalisms by collecting the most important thinking on the ‘new regionalism’. For example, Asian intergovernmental institutions; the overall lack of strategic coherence; the overlap of some agendas in the region; conflict or complement; and the implications for the region as a whole. Finally, Volume IV highlights the interesting fact on how non-governmental organizations look at the regionalization processes in Asia and how they can influence politics and security issues in the region. Kripa Sridharan and T.C.A. Srinivasa-Raghavan in their Regional Cooperation in South Asia and Southeast Asia26 offer a comparative draft of regionalism in South and Southeast Asia in the light of recent regional developments. The authors analyze the highs and lows of regional experience in South Asia but also the one in Southeast Asia through ASEAN, pointing out that economic integration requires certain prior conditions to be satisfied and does not happen simply because governments wish it to occur. Lastly, in a much deeper context, Estrella D Solidum presents in her The politics of ASEAN: an Introduction to Southeast Asian Regionalism27 a substantial review of the region and on how ASEAN has been shaping regionalism in South East Asia. The author covers what is mandatory to know regarding ASEAN such as the genesis of ASEAN and its early experiences with the concept of cooperation. A brief historical background of each member state is delivered to contribute to the knowledge of individual ASEAN members and the nature of cooperation in the region. It also includes 25 See Seng Tan, ed., Regionalism in Asia. Critical Issues in Modern Politics (Oxford: Routledge, 2009). Kripa Sridharan, and T.C.A. Srinivasa-Raghavan. Regional Cooperation in South Asia and Southeast Asia (Singapore: ISEAS, 2007). 27 Estrella D Solidum, The politics of ASEAN: an Introduction to Southeast Asian Regionalism (Singapore: Eastern Universities Press, 2003). 26 18 Student: Agustin A. Julio, 古立鷗 699330519 Thesis Advisor: 李大中, Da-jung Li (Ph.D.) Date: November 1, 2011 vital documents of the organization the ASEAN Declaration of 1967, the Kuala Lumpur Declaration on the Zone of Peace, Freedom, and Neutrality of 1971, the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia of 1976, and the most recent ASEAN Vision 2020, created in 1997. 2. Security issues in South East Asia. Regions and Powers: The Structure of International Security28 by Barry Buzan and Ole Wæver is quite a reference in security issues. This book will help to get the basic ideas of security issues in the context of regionalism and how these regional patterns have been affecting and shaping the world politics. Even though the focus is in the post Cold-War era, it also deals with the historical topics of each region. It is a must read and a solid piece for this investigation. Anthony Mely Caballero in his Regional Security in Southeast Asia: Beyond the ASEAN Way 29 goes beyond the general issues of regions in the world focusing its attention in how ASEAN deals with security in South East Asia. The author examines ASEAN's mechanisms in managing challenges and threats to regional security. Its extensive analyses of the ASEAN story of managing regional security cover the different phases of ASEAN's development as a regional organization and explore the perceptible changes that have occurred in regional mechanisms of conflict management. Finally, and related to the text mentioned above, Constructing a Security Community in South East Asia: ASEAN and the problem of Regional Order30 by Amitav Acharya delivers an exceptional research and analysis of the evolution of ASEAN and how it behaves with conflict management, debating the ASEAN non-interference doctrine, which in the case of disaster management shows how negatively affected in the 2004 disaster response by ASEAN. 3. Disaster Management. 28 Barry Buzan and Ole Wæver, Regions and Powers: The Structure of International Security (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003). 29 Anthony Mely Caballero, Regional Security in Southeast Asia: Beyond the ASEAN Way (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2005). 30 Amitav Acharya, Constructing a Security Community in South East Asia: ASEAN and the problem of Regional Order (New York: Taylor & Francis, 2009). 19 Student: Agustin A. Julio, 古立鷗 699330519 Thesis Advisor: 李大中, Da-jung Li (Ph.D.) Date: November 1, 2011 Jack Pinkowski, as the editor of Disaster Management Handbook31, made a solid contribution to the academic field by presenting an analytical critique of the multidisciplinary issues of preparedness, response, and recovery in preventing and the reconstruction involved after disasters. In its introduction presents the theoretical constructs and conceptual foundations of disaster management being essential for the theoretical aspects of this thesis. Pinkowski reviews the connection of modern development to disaster vulnerability, the politics of disaster management, leadership, and the role of agency coordination. Another important section provides some case studies and lessons learned through natural disasters around the world. Interestingly enough for future contributions for this research is the final section which present strategies for limiting and ameliorating the psychological impact of disaster on victims and personnel, and look forward to how societies can be better prepared and rebuild stronger and resilient communities. The excellent work created by Anna K Schwab and various authors titled Hazard Mitigation and Preparedness: Building Resilient Communities32 is one of the favorites for different academics in the field of disaster and emergency management. This vast elaborated study presents the major principles involved in preparing for and mitigating the impacts of hazards in emergency management. It gives a precise definition of the classifications of hazards and disasters, including meteorological and hydrological hazards, geological hazards, and manmade hazards. It will be impossible to have a better knowledge of this area without the reading of this text. This resource also provides real-world examples of different tools and techniques that emergency managers can use to reduce the impact of different types of hazards. Disaster Management: Global Challenges and Local Solutions33 by the editors Rajib Shaw and R.R. Krishnamurthy focus on some of the topics of disaster management at the local level, narrowing it down to innovative research and applications. The authors looked at different types of hazards and disasters and examine the interrelated themes of risk and vulnerability, technology, education, and community. It is indeed an essential research for a holistic understanding of key issues related to disaster management in the contemporary world. 31 Jack Pinkowski, ed., Disaster Management Handbook (Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 2008). Anna K Schwab, et.al., Hazard Mitigation and Preparedness: Building Resilient Communities (Hoboken: Wiley, 2007). 33 Rajib Shaw and R.R. Krishnamurthy, eds., Disaster Management: Global Challenges and Local Solutions (Himayatnagar, India: Universities Press, 2009). 32 20 Student: Agustin A. Julio, 古立鷗 699330519 Thesis Advisor: 李大中, Da-jung Li (Ph.D.) Date: November 1, 2011 The work by David E. Alexander, Principles of Emergency Planning and Management 34 yields a comprehensive background for effective preparation for disasters, a general introduction to the methods, procedures, protocols and strategies of emergency planning. The author focuses on general principles of emergency planning and management. A comprehensive all-hazards approach is adopted, with frequent reference to the most important individual hazards and the planning and management needs that they create. Finally, Natural Disaster Reduction: South East Asian Realities, Risk Perception and Global Strategies35 by Dilip Kumar Sinha puts an special attention on exposing the coastal vulnerability of South East Asia as the world saw it in 2004. The author seeks to bring the characteristics of the disastrous events of the region to the fore, by not only presenting fragilities of South East Asia but also giving real possibilities for coping with natural disasters. This book is a substantial work for the realization of this thesis because provides a good general background of the most repeated disasters in the area and also pays a particular concern to the communities at risk and their responses. 34 David E. Alexander, Principles of Emergency Planning and Management (N.Y.: Oxford University Press, 2002). 35 Dilip Kumar Sinha, Natural Disaster Reduction: South East Asian Realities, Risk Perception and Global Strategies (London; New York: Anthem, 2007). 21 Student: Agustin A. Julio, 古立鷗 699330519 Thesis Advisor: 李大中, Da-jung Li (Ph.D.) Date: November 1, 2011 IX. Chapter Arrangement: Introduction 1. Background. 2. Research Objectives. 3. Research Scope. 4. Theoretical Framework. 5. Hypothesis. 6. Methodology. 7. Chapter Arrangement. I. Chapter 1: What is a Disaster? 1.1. Definitions. 1.2. Disasters vs. Hazards, Emergencies, Catastrophes. 1.3. Classifications: 1.3.1. Natural Disasters: 1.3.2. 1.3.1.1. Meteorological. 1.3.1.2. Geological. 1.3.1.3. Hydrological. 1.3.1.4. Extraterrestrial. Man Made Disasters: 1.3.2.1. Technological. 1.3.2.2. Terrorism. II. Chapter 2: Unveiling Disaster Management. 2.1. Definition. 2.2. Overview. 2.3. Phases: 2.3.1. Mitigation. 2.3.2. Preparedness. 2.3.3. Response. 2.3.4. Recovery. 2.4. Disaster vs. Emergency Management: 2.4.1. Differences. 2.4.2. Principles of Emergency Management. 2.4.3. Theories of Disaster / Emergency Management. 22 Student: Agustin A. Julio, 古立鷗 699330519 Thesis Advisor: 李大中, Da-jung Li (Ph.D.) Date: November 1, 2011 III. Chapter 3: SEA Regional Cooperation on Disaster Management. 3.1. Overview. 3.2. Regional Cooperation in SEA (Background). 3.3. ASEAN: 3.3.1. What is ASEAN? 3.3.2. Components. 3.4. ASEAN and Disaster Management: 3.4.1. Overview. 3.4.2. “ASEAN Declaration on Mutual Assistance on Natural Disasters”. 3.4.3. ASEAN Committee on Disaster Management (ACDM): 3.4.3.1. What is? 3.4.3.2. Functions. 3.4.3.3. Integrating Body. 3.4.4. ASEAN Regional Programme on Disaster Management. 3.4.5. ASEAN Ministerial Meeting on Disaster Management. 3.5. Other Institutions and Agencies on Disaster Management in SEA: 3.5.1. Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC): 3.5.1.1. Overview. 3.5.1.2. Functions. IV. Chapter 4: The 2004 Disaster and ASEAN Response. 4.1. Brief Background of the 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami. 4.2. The ASEAN Response: 4.2.1. Reaction/Official Statements. 4.2.2. Aid Provided by Nations of ASEAN. 4.2.3. Recovery Plans. 4.3. Response by other international actors in the disaster: 4.3.1. The European Union: 4.3.1.1. Response. 4.3.1.2. Humanitarian Aid. 4.3.2. The United Nations: 4.3.2.1. Response. 4.3.2.2. Humanitarian Aid. 4.4. Implications: 4.4.1. Contrasting the Responses with ASEAN: 4.4.1.1. Supporting Arguments. 4.4.1.2. Critics. 23 Student: Agustin A. Julio, 古立鷗 699330519 Thesis Advisor: 李大中, Da-jung Li (Ph.D.) Date: November 1, 2011 V. Chapter 5: Disaster Management in SEA: A Work in Progress? 5.1. New implementations: 5.1.1. ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance (AHA Centre). 5.1.2. ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response (AADMER). 5.1.3. ASEAN Disaster Information Sharing and Communication Network (ASEAN DISCNET). 5.1.4. ASEAN Day for Disaster Management. 5.1.5. ASEAN Community 2015 and Disaster Management. 5.2. Exercises and Prevention: 5.2.1. ASEAN Regional Disaster Response Simulation Exercise (ARDEX). 5.2.2. Examples. 5.3. Official Statements on Disaster Management. 5.4. Is ASEAN Disaster Management Still a Work in Progress?: 5.4.1. Supporting Arguments. 5.4.2. Critics. Conclusions 1. Evaluations. 2. Major Research Findings. 3. Limitations. 4. Suggestions for Future Research. Bibliography 1. Primary Sources. 2. Secondary Sources. Annexes 24 Student: Agustin A. Julio, 古立鷗 699330519 Thesis Advisor: 李大中, Da-jung Li (Ph.D.) Date: November 1, 2011 X. Bibliography: a. Books. - Acharya, Amitav. Constructing a Security Community in South East Asia: ASEAN and the problem of Regional Order. New York: Taylor & Francis, 2009 - Alexander, David E. Principles of Emergency Planning and Management. 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National University of Singapore, 1987. - Lin, Chin Ming. “The Role of Mid‐power Countries in Asia‐Pacific Regional Integration”. Paper prepared for the 2011 Annual conference on Taiwan’s Southeast Asian Studies, Tamsui, New Taipei, April 29‐30, 2011. - McDonald, B, and Gaulin T. “Environmental Change, Conflict, and Adaptation: Evidence from Cases”. University of California, Irvine, March 2002. - McEntire, David A. “The Status of Emergency Management Theory: Issues, Barriers, and Recommendations for Improved Scholarship”. Paper Presented at the FEMA Higher Education Conference June 8, 2004, Emmitsburg, MD - Michel, Louis. “Post-tsunami Relief Effort: The Commission’s Humanitarian Response and the Need for Sound Aid Management”, SPEECH/05/177, 15 March 2005. - Mitchell, Derek J, ed. “The United States and Southeast Asia: Toward a Strategy for - Pelling, M and Dill K. ‘Natural’ Disasters as Catalysts of Political Action. 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Vientiane, July 26, 2005, http://www.asean.org/17579.htm - ASEAN. “ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response”. Work Programme 2010-2015. Adopted by the 15th Meeting of the ASEAN Committee on Disaster Management (ACDM), 11-12 March 2010, Singapore. - ASEAN. “ASEAN Declaration on Mutual Assistance on Natural Disasters”. Manila, June 26, 1976, http://www.asean.org/17455.htm - ASEAN. “ASEAN Standby Arrangements for Disaster Relief and Emergency Response”, http://standby.aseansec.org/ - ASEAN. “Development of the ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response”, http://www.asean.org/18441.htm - ASEAN. “Leadership in Asia After Tsunami”, Remarks Delivered by H.E. Ong Keng Yong, Secretary-General of ASEAN at the Asia Leadership Conference 2005”, Seoul, March 3, 2005, http://www.asean.org/17302.htm - ASEAN. “Press Release of the ASEAN Mounts First Regional Disaster Emergency Response Simulation Exercise”. September 16, 2005, http://www.asean.org/17734.htm - ASEAN. “PRESS RELEASE ASEAN in Action: Coordinated Emergency Response for Earthquake Victims in Indonesia”. 7 June 2006. http://www.asean.org/18465.htm - ASEAN. “Second Announcement by the ASEAN Committee on Disaster Management (ACDM). Fourth ASEAN Regional Disaster Emergency Response Simulation Exercise Kicks off in Thailand”, August 27, 2008, http://www.asean.org/19644.htm - ASEAN. “Seven Cardinal Rules of Regional Partnership: Lessons from Tsunami 2004”, by H.E. Ong Keng Yong, Secretary-General, Association of Southeast Asian Nations at the Third Asia-Pacific Homeland Security Summit and Exposition”, Honolulu, USA, September 23, 2005, http://www.asean.org/17767.htm - ASEAN. “Special ASEAN Leaders Meeting on Aftermath of Earthquake and Tsunami”. Jakarta, January 6, 2005, http://www.asean.org/17066.htm - ASEAN. “Statement from the Chairman of the ASEAN Committee on Disaster Management”. http://www.asean.org/18465.htm CNN. “Asia quake death toll tops 13,000”, December 27, 2004, http://edition.cnn.com/ - Focus on the Global South Official Website. Revisiting South East Asian Regionalism. Edited by Focus on the Global South. December 2006. Available online at: http://www.focusweb.org/pdf/ASEAN%20dossier2006-full.pdf - Glasius, Marlies. “The EU response to the Asian tsunami and the need for a human security approach” in The European Union and Human Security - External Interventions and Missions, ed. Mary Martin et.al. USA:Routledge, 2009. - Pacific Disaster Center. “Mega Disasters – a Global “Tipping Point” in Natural Disaster Policy, Planning and Development”, Maui, Hawaii, August 15-16, 2006, http://www.asean.org/23163.htm - Schulze, Kirsten (2005) Between Conflict and Peace: Tsunami Aid and Reconstruction in Aceh, 18 November 2005, available at http://www.lse.ac.uk/Depts/global/humansectsunami.htm - Terra Daily. “Sumatra quake fifth-largest since 1900: USGS”, December 26, 2004, http://www.terradaily.com/ - What on Earth. “Example from Indonesian Islands, Plate Tectonics”, http://whatonearth.olehnielsen.dk/Tectonics.asp http://www.consilium.europa.eu/ueDocs/cms_Data/docs/pressdata/en/discours/88870.p df 32 Student: Agustin A. Julio, 古立鷗 699330519 Thesis Advisor: 李大中, Da-jung Li (Ph.D.) Date: November 1, 2011 e. Websites. - ASEAN Official website, http://www.asean.org/ - Multi-Donor Trust Funds Office website, http://mdtf.undp.org/overview/funds - ASEAN Blogger, http://aseanblogger.com/ - ASEAN Ministerial Meeting on Disaster Management (AMMDM) website, http://www.asean.org/19599.htm - British Broadcasting Channel (BBC) website, http://www.bbc.com/ - Centre for Non-traditional Security Studies, http://www.rsis.edu.sg/nts/resources.asp?selsubcat=publications - CNN website, http://edition.cnn.com/ - Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.cfr.org/ - European Investment Bank (EIB) website, http://www.eib.org/ - Focus on the Global South website, http://www.focusweb.org/ - Foreign Affairs website, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/ - Human Security Gateway, http://www.humansecuritygateway.com/index.php - International Relations and Security Network, http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/ - ISDR, Draft Framework to Guide and Monitor Disaster Risk Reduction, http://www.unisdr.org/dialogue/ - Terra Daily website, http://www.terradaily.com/ - The ASEAN Regional Programme on Disaster Management, http://www.asean.org/18455.htm - The European Commission Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection (ECHO) website, http://ec.europa.eu/echo/index_en.htm - The Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System website, http://www.gdacs.org/ - The International Crisis Group website, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en.aspx - The International Development Research Centre, Gender and Disaster Sourcebook, - The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), http://www.ifrc.org/en/ - The Jamestown Foundation website, http://www.jamestown.org/ - The Prevention Web, http://www.preventionweb.net/english/?logotext - The United Nations University - Comparative Regional Integration Studies (UNUCRIS), http://www.cris.unu.edu/ - The World Bank website, http://www.worldbank.org/ - United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) website, http://www.unisdr.org/ - What on Earth website, http://whatonearth.olehnielsen.dk/Tectonics.asp www.gdnonline.org/sourcebook.htm 33