IAVWOPSG/4-WP/16
International Civil Aviation Organization
17/6/08
WORKING PAPER
INTERNATIONAL AIRWAYS VOLCANO WATCH OPERATIONS GROUP
(IAVWOPSG)
FOURTH MEETING
Paris, France, 15 to 19 September 2008
Agenda Item 5: Operation of the IAVWOPSG
5.1: Implementation of the IAVW, including the IAVW Management Report
VOLCANIC ERUPTION EXERCISE - RUAUMOKO
(Presented by New Zealand)
SUMMARY
Over the summer of 2007/08 a very successful New Zealand Civil Defence
and Emergency Management systems exercise on volcanic eruption within an
urban environment was conducted. This paper outlines the participation of the
aviation sector warning systems and associated infrastructure in the exercise.
1.
INTRODUCTION
1.1
In November 2005 the New Zealand Government directed that there be two nationallevel disaster preparedness exercises to test New Zealand’s all-of-nation arrangements for responding to a
major disaster. The first of these, Exercise Capital Quake, took place in November 2006 and tested
arrangements for responding to a major earthquake in Wellington.
1.2
The second of these national exercises, Exercise Ruaumoko1 was
based on a volcanic eruption in the city of Auckland. This exercise was conducted
in two phases over four months from November 2007 to March 2008. The main
exercise phase occurred in March 2008, culminating in two days of operational
activity over 13-14 March 2008.
1
In Maori mythology, Ruaumoko is the guardian of earthquakes and volcanoes. He is the youngest child of Ranginui the sky and
Papatuanuku the Earth. When his parents were separated he was buried beneath his mother, with fires placed below them to
keep them warm. This is the source of Ruaumoko’s fire.
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1.3
The exercise was played out in real time and involved local, regional and national levels,
including Civil Defence an Emergency Management (CDEM), central and local government, utility
services, health services, transport services etc. There was no compression of timelines or artificial times
and dates for exercise purposes. The timeframe for the scenario was therefore as realistic as possible,
according to the latest vulcanological research. The scenario was a volcanic eruption somewhere in the
wider Auckland metropolitan area, New Zealand’s most populous place.
1.4
The exercise commenced with the identification of precursor seismic activity in the
Auckland region in November 2007. The initial phase of the exercise involved meetings of relevant
agencies to respond to the threat.
1.5
In early 2008 unusual and sustained seismicity (the exercise) in the Auckland region
prompted further attention. As the source of seismic activity became shallower, it was clear that a
volcanic eruption was possible.
1.6
The main operational phase of the exercise commenced in March 2008 in the lead-in to a
volcanic eruption, and stopping shortly after the simulated eruption began. It was through this phase that
the aviation community became most involved.
2.
VOLCANIC
ZEALAND
ASH
ADVISORY
SYSTEMS
IN
NEW
2.1
New Zealand has operated its Volcanic Ash Advisory System (VAAS), as the local
component of the ICAO International Airways Volcano Watch system (IAVW), for over a decade.
Essentially the VAAS is a means whereby the main aviation infrastructure organisations co-operate to
manage airspace and advise aircraft operators during a volcanic event in New Zealand airspace (refer
Appendix A).
2.2
New Zealand operates the Wellington VAAC as part of the IAWV system overseen by
ICAO. Its connection with Exercise Ruaumoko occurred at the end of the exercise once the eruption had
started and with the desk-top notification of the VAAC by the meteorological watch office (MWO) and
the issue of the requisite volcanic ash advisory (VAA).
3.
3.1.1
EXERCISE RUAUMOKO OPERATIONS
Initial considerations:
a) ash may or may not have been a factor in the exercise. This was unknown initially as
only the exercise organisers were aware of the planned chain of events.
b) there was no Volcanic Hazard Zone (VHZ) in place for the Auckland volcanic field –
a VHZ for airspace management would need to be created by the Civil Aviation
Authority of New Zealand (CAA) once the location of an eruption or potential
eruption was known.
c) the size and extent of any VHZ would need to be determined relative to any
Scientific Alert Levels (SAL), issued by the Geological and Nuclear Sciences
organisation.
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d) VAA and SIGMET would only be issued once it was clear that an eruption was in
progress or was clearly immanent.
e) it was possible that ash was likely to directly affect Auckland International Airport,
its approaches, and surrounding airspace.
3.2
3.2.1
Chain of Events
The IAVWOPSG is invited to:
a) the first Scientific Alert Level (SAL) bulletins were issued in early March 2008
indicating seismic activity and raising the SAL to Level 1 for a band across south
Auckland (Refer Appendices 1 and 2).
b) the CAA responded by implementing the first VHZ based on the approximate
geographic centre of the seismic activity reported in the first SALs (refer Appendix
C). The implementation of the VHZ limited operations to daytime VFR flights in the
prescribed area and at this time did not cover Auckland International Airport.
c) over the next week the area of seismicity varied considerably across south and central
Auckland and, for a period, the centre of the VHZ was shifted accordingly by the
CAA and MetService.
d) in spending much effort in following these changes in activity, it became apparent to
Airways Corporation of New Zealand (Airways), Meteorological Service of New
Zealand (MetService) and the CAA that it was not operationally feasible to
constantly “chase” the seismic activity and constantly shift the centre of the VHZ.
e) the final position of the VHZ was therefore set on 11 March 2008, near Mangere in
south Auckland. The dimensions of the VHZ were also increased commensurate with
the increase in SAL. (Refer Appendix C). At Level 2, with an 8NM radius from the
assumed centre position, night-time operations at Auckland Airport were technically
prohibited.
f) through the latter part of the period, especially when the SAL was at Level 3, the
Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences (GNS) issued ashfall projections based
on information on measoscale wind flow predictions from MetService. This formed
the basis of the CDEM evacuation process which saw over 250,000 people
successfully evacuated from the most likely affected areas through the exercise – and
with all the synthetic constraints and difficulties applied in moving so many people.
g) on 14 March 2008 the seismic activity increased markedly and an eruption was seen
as immanent by GNS. The SAL was affirmed at Level 3. At this level the
dimensions of the VHZ took in Auckland Airport, the central city, the Whenuapai
RNZAF base and all of the main communication, electricity, rail and motorway lines.
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h) just after 1400 local time on Friday 14 March 2008 (1300 UTC) an eruption was
reported near to the centre of the last reported series of seismic events (refer
Appendix D). The exact position was not available and it was not clear whether the
eruption was steam or ash. However, given an eruption was reliably reported, MWO
was action triggered.
i)
at 1416 local time the Wellington MWO (MetService) issued a VA SIGMET
(Refer Appendix E) for the FIR - NZZZC on the basis of all of the information that
was available at the time.
j)
the Wellington MWO and VAAC then prepared what they could for the issue of new
VHZ dimensions and for the VAA message.
k) at 1430 a new SAL was received from the Institute of Geological and Nuclear
Sciences. This shifted the Scientific Alert Level to Level 4 – an eruption was in
progress and the vent position was now firmly described (Refer Appendix B).
l)
this triggered an immediate modification of the VHZ by NOTAM further expanding
its dimensions– surface to FL480 and 27NM radius* (Refer Appendix C).
m) the co-located Wellington VAAC then focused on the issue of the IAVW Volcanic
Ash Advisory (VAA) message and this was completed and sent immediately
thereafter (Refer Appendix E).
n) rxercise Ruaumko concluded at about 1445 local time.
*MetService and the CAA briefly discussed the rationality in moving the centre of the
VHZ to the know eruption location. Given the previously assumed most probable
location was only 2 km from the actual eruption it was decided that there was no
advantage in making such a small change.
4.
ANALYSIS
4.1
As far as we know, Exercise Ruaumko was the first time an exercise has been based on
real-time development of a wholly new volcano in the middle of an urban area. The exercise directly
involved many thousands of people in central and local government, and the private sector. It was
conducted in as near to real conditions as possible.
4.2
Through the latter part of the period, especially when the volcano Scientific Alert Level
(SAL) was at Level 3, the Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences (GNS) issued ashfall projections
based on information on measoscale wind flow predictions from Meteorological Service of New Zealand
(MetService). This formed the basis of the CDEM evacuation process which saw over 250,000 people
successfully evacuated from the most likely affected areas through the exercise – and with all the
synthetic constraints and difficulties applied in moving so many people.
4.3
The VA SIGMET was issued by the Wellington MWO (MetService) within just a few
minutes’ notice of the very first part of the eruption. This was possible because the MWO was in full
communication with all of the CDEM agencies involved with the exercise, most particularly GNS. In the
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event it was a video clip from a participating television station that caught the first part of the eruption
(Refer Appendix A) and this was relayed very quickly to the MWO.
4.4
The VAA was issued by the co-located Wellington VAAC (MetService) once the
eruption was confirmed, but some 15 minutes after the VA SIGMET. In the circumstances with the colocation of the MWO and the VAAC in Wellington, it is reasonable that the VA SIGMET was issued first
given the FIR responsibilities of the Wellington MetService office.
4.5
Management of the central point of the Volcanic Hazard Zone (VHZ), an airspace
regulating component of the VAAS, proved difficult over the period because the area of seismic activity
shifted often over the period leading up to the eruption. This situation could be expected for this kind of
lead up to an eruption from a new vent in the Auckland volcanic field or any other volcanic field.
Nevertheless, the final centre position of the VHZ was accurate enough even for a real event. In hindsight,
it would have been better to take a more conservative approach to the management of the VHZ position
because the overall scale of the final VHZ was ultimately all encompassing of the entire city.
4.6
The operations of the Wellington VAAC and MWO, run by MetService, fully met
procedural expectations. The associated IAVW and supporting VAAS systems were well tested during
Exercise Ruaumoko and were found to be robust.
4.7
The interaction of the CAA, MetService, Airways Corporation, the Institute of
Geological and Nuclear Sciences and the CDEM participants was collegial, communicative and
pragmatic. It was not unusual for participants to ensure information was passed to the correct authorities
using many communications means, and to openly discuss issues seeking the best solution.
4.8
The success of Exercise Ruaumoko clearly underscored the need to ensure that all
appropriate government agencies and private organisations are in close liaison and follow clearly
prescribed processes and communications. Notwithstanding this it was also clearly apparent that crosssector interest and follow-up also contributed to the success of the Exercise.
5.
5.1
ACTION BY THE MEETING
The meeting is invited to:
a) note the information in this paper; and
b) exchange views on the various matters discussed.
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Appendix A
APPENDIX A
THE NEW ZEALAND VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY SYSTEM (VAAS) AND VAAC
COVERAGE
1.
New Zealand Volcanic Ash Advisory System (VAAS)
VARs
NOTAM
Aircraft Operators
VAR feedback
Normal
preflight Met.
information
SIGMET (RTF etc)
Alert level
& eruption
information
SIGMET (AFTN)
VAR
by
RTF
IGNS
MetService
ACNZ
Satellite or
other eruption
Information
NOTAM Request
(& confirmation)
VAR by fax
(post flight)
Other
people
Independent
observations
or liaison
Electronic &
visual
eruption
& status
information
Confirn or
deny
information
Volcano
VAR feedback
2.
Volcanic Hazard Zone Dimensions for New Vents
Volcano
Alert Level
1
2
3
4
5
For NEW Volcanic Hazard Zones in New Zealand VOLCANO
Radius from Vent (nm)
Upper Limit
3
3000 ft above top of vent
8
FL 150
16
FL 330
27
FL 480
>50
unlimited
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B-2
Appendix B
3.
New Zealand Scientific Alert Level Table
1.1.1
FREQUENTLY ACTIVE CONE
VOLCANOES
Scientific
ALERT
LEVEL
White Island, Tongariro -Ngauruhoe, Ruapehu
Volcano Status
Usual dormant or
quiescent state.
Signs of volcano
unrest.
Minor eruptive
activity.
Indicative
Phenomena
Typical background
surface activity;
seismicity, deformation
and heat flow at low
levels.
Departure from typical
background surface
activity.
Onset of eruptive activity ,
accompanied by changes
to monitored indicators.
Kermadecs, Northland, Auckland, Mayor Island,
Rotorua, Okataina, Taupo, Egmont
Indicative Phenomena
Volcano Status
0
Typical background surface
activity; seismicity,
deformation and heat flow at
low levels.
Usual dormant or
quiescent state.
1
Apparent seismic, geodetic,
thermal or other unrest
indicators
Increase in number or
intensity of unrest indicators
(seismicity, deformation,
heat flow etc.).
Minor eruptions. High
increasing trends of unrest
indicators, significant effects
on volcano and possibly
beyond.
Eruption of new magma.
Sustained high levels of
unrest indicators, significant
effects beyond volcano.
Destruction with major
damage beyond active
volcano. Significant risk
over wider areas.
Initial signs of possible
volcano unrest. No
eruption threat.
Confirmation of
volcano unrest.
Eruption threat.
2
Significant local
eruption in
progress.
Increased vigour of
ongoing activity and
monitored indicators.
3
Hazardous local
eruption in
progress.
Significant change to
ongoing activity and
monitoring indicators.
Effects beyond volcano.
Destruction with major
damage beyond volcano.
Significant risk over wider
areas.
4
Large hazardous
eruption in
progress.
REAWAKENING VOLCANOES
5
Minor eruptions
commenced. Real
possibility of
hazardous eruptions.
Hazardous local
eruption in progress.
Large scale eruption
now possible.
Large hazardous
volcanic eruption in
progress.
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4.
VAAC Regions – Auckland, New Zealand Location
Chapter 1
Appendix B
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B-4
Appendix B
IAVWOPSG/4-WP/16
Appendix B
APPENDIX B
SCIENTIFIC ALERT BULLETINS
Bulletin #3
EXERCISE ONLY
SCIENCE ALERT BULLETIN: AK-08/03
4:00 pm Monday, 05 March 2008
Auckland Volcanic Field – update
The renewed seismic activity over the weekend beneath the Auckland Volcanic Field, has continued
during the last 24 hours. There is no change in the temporal clustering of the events, or magnitudes.
However, there is some shallowing of the earthquake locations. The Alert Level remains at Level 1.
Since yesterdays update, a further twenty-five earthquakes have been recorded and located. They
occur in a zone between Mt. Mangere and Mt. Wellington. Provisional locations suggest the recent
earthquakes are occurring at 28 – 38 km depth and range in magnitude from 1.8 to 2.2. Detailed
analysis of the earthquakes confirms that the locations have become shallower over the past 2 days.
None have been reported as felt events.
The earthquakes are deep long-period type events, commonly observed in volcanic environments
and during periods of unrest. Earthquakes deeper than 15- 20 km are unusual in the Auckland
Region.
A GNS team has deployed 5 temporary seismographs to complement an existing network of 5
permanent seismographs. Further information will be released as it comes to hand.
See http://www.geonet.org.nz/volcano/ruaumoko/alert-bulletin/index.html for past alert bulletins.
In summary seismic activity beneath the Auckland Volcanic Field continues and has become
shallower in the past two days. The Alert Level for Auckland Volcanic Field remains at Alert
Level 1 (apparent unrest-no eruption threat at this time).
Arthur Jolly
Ruaumoko Exercise Duty Volcanologist
GNS Science, Wairakei Research Centre, Taupo
Earthquakes for the period 1-4 March 2008 occur within the larger shaded area while 5 March 2008
events occur in the smaller shaded area to the southwest.
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B-5
Appendix B
Bulletin #17
EXERCISE ONLY
SCIENCE ALERT BULLETIN: AK-08/17
03:30 pm Thursday, 13 March 2008
Auckland Volcanic Field – likely eruption vent zone confirmed.
Alert Level remains at 3
New earthquake and ground deformation data confirm the likely eruption zone (see map below) but
do not allow an exact location to be predicted. The probability of an eruption within the next 24 hours
occurring within the zone of earthquake and ground uplift is at least 90%.
Map of likely eruption vent zone (red ellipse). Red dots are latest earthquake epicentres. Orange
dots are epicentres of all earthquakes in 24 hours to 12 noon 13/3/08
Since 1200h today, there have been fewer earthquakes than were recorded in the preceding 18
hours. However, the recent quakes were all located within the zone of epicentres during the last 24
hours. The earthquake depths extend from 7 km to 1 km below surface. Some of the recent events
were lower frequency (peak frequency of ~2.5 Hz) than previous events and indicate movement of
fluid or gas associated with the magma.
GPS field survey data have now been processed and confirms maximum ground inflation (up to 4
cm) between Ambury Farm and Mangere Bridge, south of the Port of Onehunga. Ground
deformation data matches our model of a single body of magma, currently at 3 km to 5 km depth
below Mangere.
Based on past behaviour of Auckland’s volcanoes the new eruption is anticipated to start explosively
and may progress within days to weeks, to less explosive activity that would last for a few weeks to a
few months. The duration of the eruption will depend on the volume of magma rising to the surface,
which is unknown at this stage.
See http://www.geonet.org.nz/volcano/ruaumoko/alert-bulletin/index.html for past alert bulletins.
IAVWOPSG/4-WP/16
B-6
Appendix B
The Alert Level for Auckland Volcanic Field remains at Level 3.
Michael Rosenberg
Ruaumoko Exercise Duty Volcanologist
GNS Science, Wairakei Research Centre, Taupo
Bulletin #23
EXERCISE ONLY
SCIENCE ALERT BULLETIN: AK-08/23
14:30 pm Friday, 14 March 2008
Auckland Volcanic Field –
Steam and ash eruption in Mangere Inlet
Alert Level increased to 4
A volcanic eruption has started in Mangere Inlet. A steam plume was observed at about 13:00 this
afternoon offshore from Kiwi Esplanade (see attached map for estimated location) and this was
followed by eruption of ash and water from the same location at 13:50.
Seismic data showed a sudden step up associated with the steam eruption; it then dropped before
peaking again when the ash eruption occurred. Seismic energy remains high.
Ground deformation in the Ambury Park – Mangere Bridge area reversed shortly before the steam
eruption, and this is consistent with magma being close to the surface nearby.
We will provide updates as soon as further monitoring information comes to hand.
See http://www.geonet.org.nz/volcano/ruaumoko/alert-bulletin/index.html for past alert bulletins.
The Alert Level for Auckland Volcanic Field has been increased to 4 – hazardous local
eruption in progress.
Michael Rosenberg
Ruaumoko Exercise Duty Volcanologist
GNS Science, Wairakei Research Centre, Taupo
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B-7
Appendix B
IAVWOPSG/4-WP/16
Appendix C
APPENDIX C
VOLCANIC HAZARD ZONE (VHZ) NOTAM
03 March 2008 – Initial Establishment of the VHZ
(IFIS0000/08 NOTAMN
A) NZZC B) 0803030115 C) 0806030115
E) REQ CY TO
EXERCISE ONLY NOT FOR DISSEMINATION BY AFTN
TEMPO VOLCANIC HAZARD ZONE NZV 101 (ELLERSLIE, AUCKLAND) IS
PRESCRIBED AS FLW:
ALL THAT AIRSPACE BOUNDED BY A CIRCLE, RADIUS 3 NM CENTRED ON S 36 53
43.0, E 174 49 21.0.
UPPER LIMIT: 3500FT AMSL.
LOWER LIMIT: SFC
PRESCRIBED PURSUANT TO PART 71 OF THE CIVIL AVIATION RULES, UNDER A
DELEGATED AUTHORITY ISSUED BY THE DIRECTOR OF CIVIL AVIATION.
F) SFC G) 3500FT AMSL
R) AERODROME/ORGANISATION: CAA
NOTAM ISSUE NOTIFICATION METHOD: EMAIL WICKSL@CAA.GOVT.NZ
AUTHORISED BY: LEN WICKS
CONTACT PERSON: LEN WICKS
CONTACT TELEPHONE: 04 5609454 )
10 March 2008
(B9002/08 NOTAMR B9001/08
Q) NZZC/QWWLW/IV/NBO/W/000/150/3654S17447E008
A) NZZC B) 0803100112 C) 0804080015 EST
E) TEMPO VOLCANIC HAZARD ZONE NZV101 (ORANGA, AUCKLAND) IS REDEFINED AS FLW DUE
TO INCREASED VOLCANIC ACT, ALL THAT AIRSPACE BOUNDED BY A CIRCLE OF RADIUS 8NM
CENTRED ON S365430.0 E1744730.0 PILOTS ARE REQ TO REP LOC OF VA AND ANY VOLCANIC
ACT OBS.
PRESCRIBED PURSUANT TO CIVIL AVIATION RULE PART 71 UNDER A DELEGATED AUTHORITY
ISSUED BY THE DIRECTOR OF CIVIL AVIATION
F) SFC G) FL150
11 March 2008
IAVWOPSG/4-WP/16
Appendix C
C-2
(B9003/08 NOTAMR B9002/08
Q) NZZC/QWWLW/IV/NBO/W/000/150/3657S17447E008
A) NZZC B) 0803112040 C) 0804080015 EST
E) TEMPO VOLCANIC HAZARD ZONE NZV101 (MANGERE, AUCKLAND) IS
REDEFINED AS FLW DUE TO INCREASED VOLCANIC ACT,
ALL THAT AIRSPACE BOUNDED BY A CIRCLE OF RADIUS 8NM CENTRED ON
S365640.0 E1744712.0
PILOTS ARE REQ TO REP LOC OF VA AND ANY VOLCANIC ACT OBS.
PRESCRIBED PURSUANT TO CIVIL AVIATION RULE PART 71 UNDER A DELEGATED
AUTHORITY ISSUED BY THE DIRECTOR OF CIVIL AVIATION
F) SFC G) FL150
12 March 2008
(B9004/08 NOTAMR B9003/08
Q) NZZC/QWWLW/IV/NBO/W/000/330/3657S17447E016
A) NZZC B) 0803120130 C) 0804080015 EST
E) TEMPO VOLCANIC HAZARD ZONE NZV101 (MANGERE, AUCKLAND) IS REDEFINED AS FLW DUE
TO INCREASED VOLCANIC ACT, ALL THAT AIRSPACE BOUNDED BY A CIRCLE OF RADIUS 16NM
CENTRED ON S365640.0 E1744712.0 PILOTS ARE REQ TO REP LOC OF VA AND ANY VOLCANIC
ACT OBS.
PRESCRIBED PURSUANT TO CIVIL AVIATION RULE PART 71 UNDER A DELEGATED AUTHORITY
ISSUED BY THE DIRECTOR OF CIVIL AVIATION
F) SFC G) FL330
14 March 2008 – Final VHZ NOTAM
(B9005/08 NOTAMR B9004/08
Q) NZZC/QWWLW/IV/NBO/W/000/480/3657S17447E027
A) NZZC B) 0803140130 C) 0804080015 EST
E) TEMPO VOLCANIC HAZARD ZONE NZV101 (MANGERE, AUCKLAND) IS REDEFINED AS FLW DUE
TO INCREASED VOLCANIC ACT, ALL THAT AIRSPACE BOUNDED BY A CIRCLE OF RADIUS 27NM
CENTRED ON S365640.0 E1744712.0 PILOTS ARE REQ TO REP LOC OF VA AND ANY VOLCANIC
ACT OBS.
PRESCRIBED PURSUANT TO CIVIL AVIATION RULE PART 71 UNDER A DELEGATED AUTHORITY
ISSUED BY THE DIRECTOR OF CIVIL AVIATION
F) SFC G) FL480
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Appendix D
APPENDIX D
ERUPTION IMAGES FROM TELEVISION COMPANY
1.1.2
1301 z
1.1.4
1415 z
1.1.3
1352 z
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Appendix E
APPENDIX E
VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY AND SIGMET
Volcanic Ash (VA) SIGMET issued by the Wellington MWO at 0116UTC
EXERCISE RUAUMOKO MESSAGE
14 MARCH 2008
NZZC SIGMET 1 VALID 140100/140700 NZKLNZZC NEW ZEALAND FIR VA ERUPTION MANGERE AUCKLAND LOC S3656 E 17446
ERUPTED AT 140053Z
VA CLD OBS AT 140110Z SFC TO 6500FT
MOV WNW ABOUT 10KT
WINDS SFC TO FL100 ESE 10KT
FCST 0700Z VA CLD APRX S3656 E17446 - S3718 E17400 - S3700 E17300 - S3600 E17300 - S3542
E17400 - S3618 E17448 - S3656 E17446
Volcanic Ash Advisory (VAA) issued by the Wellington VAAC issued at 0130UTC
VA ADVISORY
DTG:
20080314/0130Z
VAAC:
WELLINGTON
VOLCANO: UNNAMED BUT NEAR MANGERE AUCKLAND NEW ZEALAND (NEWLY
FORMING)
PSN:
S3656 E17446
AREA:
NEW ZEALAND
SUMMIT ELEV:
SEA LEVEL
ADVISORY NR:
2008/1
INFO SOURCE:
GND OBS, GEOLOGICAL SCIENCES
ERUPTION DETAILS: NEW VOLCANO FORMING. INITIAL ERUPTION REPORTED TO 6500FT
OBS VA DTG: 14/0110Z.
OBS VA CLD:
SFC/6500FT MOV WNW 10KT.
FCST VA CLD +6HR: 14/0700Z SFC/10000FT S3656 E17446 - S3718 E17400 - S3700 E17300 S3600 E17300 - S3542 E17400 - S3618 E17448 - S3656 E17446
FCST VA CLD +12HR: 14/1300Z SFC/10000FT S3656 E17446 - S3724 E17400 - S3718 E17200 S3630 E17112 - S3430 E17230 - S3500 E17300 - S3600 E17300 - S3656 E17446
FCST VA CLD +18HR: 14/1900Z SFC/10000FT S3656 E17446 - S3724 E17400 - S3724 E17100 S3600 E17000 - S3500 E17000 - S3400 E17100 - S3500 E17130 - S3600 E17300 - S3656 E17446
RMK:
FIRST ERUPTED 140110UTC. NEW VOLCANO FORMING IN AUCKLAND
VOLCANIC ZONE. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW SFC TO FL150 NEXT TWO DAYS.
NXT ADVISORY:
NO LATER THAN 20080314/0730Z
— END —