Sequential Assimilation of ISBA’s Prognostic Variables (Global Version) Stéphane Bélair and François Lemay Meteorological Service of Canada Through the representation of the main physical processes occuring at the surface, land surface schemes calculate the surface fluxes of heat, moisture, and momentum. In order to do so, the effect of soil hydraulic and thermal conductivities, vegetation transpiration, snow on the ground, and freezing of soil water, are represented in these schemes. In the last few years, the ISBA surface scheme (Interactions Surface Biosphere Atmosphere, see Noilhan and Planton 1989) has been used operationally at the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) for short-range regional weather forecast, and it is now being considered for operational implementation in the global medium-range forecasting system. A large number of surface variables are prognostically evaluated in ISBA: the superficial and mean surface temperatures (TS and T2), the soil liquid water contents for superficial and deep layers (wg and w2), the soil frozen water content (wf), the water retained on the vegetation canopy (Wr), the snow water equivalent (WS), the snow density (S), the snow albedo (S), and the liquid water retained in the snow canopy (Wl). As should be expected, the surface fluxes greatly depend on the values of these prognostic variables, and their initial values should be carefully specified. In this document, the specification of the initial values of the surface temperatures (TS and T2) and soil liquid water contents (wg and w2) through a sequential assimilation technique is described. The other surface variables are either cycled from day-to-day simulations without any modifications (wf, Wr, Wl) or obtained from a combination of cycled and analysed fields (WS, S, S, the analysed field being the snow depth). The sequential assimilation technique The basic idea of the sequential assimilation technique, first proposed by Mahfouf (1991), is to relate errors in soil moisture contents to model errors on low-level air temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH), following the linear equations: wg wga wgf (1) 1 T o T f 2 RH o RH f w2 w2a w2f (2) 1 T o T f 2 RH o RH f where the superscripts a, f, and o refers to “analyzed”, “forecast”, and “observed”. The problem therefore consists in evaluating the 1, 2, 1, and 2 coefficients, and this for all types of soils, vegetation, and meteorological conditions. Based on the work of Mahfouf (1991), who estimated the statistical distribution of these coefficients at each local solar time using a Monte-Carlo method, Bouttier et al. (1993) proposed an analytical formulation of the coefficients (continuous functions of the surface characteristics), which was later modified by Giard and Bazile (2000) to yield: 1 f (txt )1 veg a0T (t ) a1T (t ) veg a2T veg 2 (3) 2 f (txt )1 veg a0H (t ) a1H (t ) veg a2H veg 2 (4) 1 f (txt ) 1 vegb0T (t ) b1T (t ) veg b2T (t ) veg 2 vegc0T (t ) c1T (t ) veg LAI (5) Rs min 2 f (txt ) 1 vegb0H (t ) b1H (t ) veg b2H (t ) veg 2 vegc0H (t ) c1H (t ) veg f (txt ) w(txt ) w(loam) ; LAI (6) Rs min w w fc wwilt (7) where txt is the soil texture (e.g., sand, clay, etc.), veg is the fraction of vegetation covering a model grid area, LAI is the leaf area index (area of leaves coverage per surface area unit), Rsmin is the minimum stomatal resistance, and wfc and wwilt are the volumetric water contents at the field capacity and wilting point. Finally, the aiT, aiH, biT, and biH coefficients were calculated to fit the continuous functions to a large sample of and coefficients computed exactly using the Monte-Carlo method (see Bouttier et al. 1993 for more details). Values for these coefficients are obtained by linearly interpolating hourlytabulated values (not shown here) to the local solar time of each model grid point. For the surface temperatures, the increments are directly related to model errors at the anemometer level (i.e., 2 m), following: TS TSa TSf T2om T2 fm T2 T T2 a 2 f T o 2m T2 fm (8) where 2 for ISBA. Calculations of TSa , T2a , w ga , and w 2a are straightforward, except for a few tests that must be done in order to avoid unrealistic and unphysical modifications to the surface variables. First, because low-level air temperature errors are not entirely due to soil moisture and temperature (even with the most favorable atmospheric conditions), historical longterm temperature errors ( Tbias ) are carried on from one assimilation cycle to the next and are subtracted from the model errors at low levels: T 0 T f T 0 T f mod Tbias (9) with Tbias 1 r Tbias r T 0 T f mod (10) in which Tbias is the long-term tendency from the previous assimilation cycle, and r=0.5. Thus, only the low-level temperature errors that differ from the long-term values, which represent the model bias that is not related to surface characteristics, are taken into account in the sequential assimilation. Note that the same temporal filtering of the model low-level errors is not done for relative humidity, due to the more hectic behavior of this variable. Finally, minimum and maximum values are imposed on the analysed soil moistures: 01 . wwilt wga w fc . wwilt veg wwilt w2a w fc and w2a 01 (11) (12) Conditions for assimilation The link between soil moisture and low-level air characteristics is stronger in certain atmospheric conditions. For instance, air temperature and humidity will be more influenced by soil moisture during the afternoon of a beautiful, calm, sunny summertime day, as compared to a windy, cloudy day. Therefore, the sequential assimilation proposed here is only performed once a day, at the time of maximum insolation. And the increments TS , T2 , wg , and w2 are multiplied by a rejection factor rej, which depends on the following conditions: a) Increments are calculated only for tiles If only water, then rej = 0. which contain soil b) No increments are applied to snowy surfaces W rej MAX 1 S ,0 Wsrej where Wsrej is a critical rejection value for the snow mass c) No increments are applied if the soil is frozen (even partially) freez rej MAX 1 ,0 freezrej where freez wf w f w2 and freezrej is a critical rejection value for the fraction of frozen soil water content d) snowed in the 6 hours preceding the precip mod rej MAX 1 ,0 precip rej analysis time where precipmod is an average value of No increments are applied if it rained or predicted precipitation accumulation in the 6-h period preceding the analysis time, and preciprej is a critical rejection value for precipitation e) level wind is too strong (advective wind mod rej MAX 2 ,0 wind rej effects) where windrej is a critical rejection No increments are applied if the low- value for low-level wind f) No increments are applied if solar radiation is attenuated too much in the atmosphere (possible effect of clouds) rej 2 solarground where solarground solartop and solartop are the incident solar radiation fluxes at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere g) Apply increments only under daylight solartop rej min ; solar ref 1 where solarref 750 W / m2 is a reference value for the solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere and solartop is the inward radiation at the top of the atmosphere. The global assimilation cycle The technique described above was set up in the assimilation cycle of the shortrange regional weather forecast model and its medium-range global weather forecast version is currently in development. The global model is launched twice a day, for 240-h integrations at 0000 and for 144-h integrations at 1200 UTC. The model initial conditions are obtained from a 3DVAR global cycle, in which data are assimilated every 6 h. The increments TS , T2 , wg , and w2 are calculated every 6 hours, covering parts of the world that are under daylight, using global analyses of low-level temperature and humidity (TS and ES), as well as the results from the last global 6h-integration (see figure 1). The increments are then applied to the soil fields before the next 6h-integration. Model GEM global-meso 800x600x58 6h forecast I0, I1 PR, UU, VV, I0, I1, I2, I5, FB, IV, P0, TT, HR Soil temperature and moisture pseudo-analysis TT, ES, UU, VV, PN TS, ES Screen level temperature and moisture analysis Fig. 1 Schematic of the global pseudo-analysis interaction with the 6h-integration and the low-level analysis References Giard, D., and E. Bazile, 2000: Implementation of a new assimilation scheme for soil and surface variables in a global NWP model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 997-1015. Laroche, S., P. Gauthier, J. St-James, and J. Morneau, 1999: Implementation of a 3D variational data assimilation system at the Canadian Meteorological Centre. Part II: The regional analysis. Atmos.-Ocean, 37, 281-307. Mahfouf, J.-F., 1991: Analysis of soil moisture from near-surface parameters: A feasibility study. J. Appl. Meteor., 30, 1534-1547. Noilhan, J., and S. Planton, 1989: A simple parameterization of land surface processes for meteorological models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 536-549.