Seminar on
“Results and Review of SAARC STORM Field
Experiments”
Islamabad, Pakistan: 05-06 September 2012
Jointly Organized by
Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) &
SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), Dhaka,
Bangladesh
Seminar on
“Results and Review of SAARC STORM Field
Experiments”
Islamabad, Pakistan: 05-06 September 2012
IPC Members, Resource Persons and Participants with Scientific Papers
Country
Name of Officials
Title of the abstract
Afghanistan
Ms. Nabila Formoli
--------
Bangladesh
Ms. Mahnaz Khan, IPC Member
Bhutan
Mr. Tshencho Dorji, IPC Member
An Overall Study of Thunderstorms of 2012 in
Bangladesh
Country Report of Bhutan
India
Maldives
Nepal
Pakistan
Mr. S. Kiran Prasad,
Resource Person
Dr. Zahid, IPC Member
Mr. Saraju Kumar Baidya,
IPC Member
Mr. Rajendra P. Shrestha,
Participant
Mr. Azmat Hayat Khan, IPC
Member
Data Assimilation and Simulation of Severe Thunderstorms
during SAARC STORM PROGRAM
Thunderstorm Climatology over the Maldives
Thunderstorm Distribution and Frequency in Nepal
Heavy Rainfall Forecast by High Resolution Regional
Model (HRM) and its Validation over Pakistan
Sri Lanka
Mr. S.H. Kariyaswam, IPC Member
IIT-Delhi,
India
Prof. U.C. Mohanty,
Chairman, PIC, SAARC STORM
-
NAST, Nepal
Dr. Madan Lall Shrestha,
Academician
Mr. S.H.M. Fakhruddin,
IPC Member
(i) Mr. Ata Hussain, Representative
of Chair-person, IPC
-
RIMES,
Thailand
SMRC
(ii) Mr. Sujit Kumar Debsarma,
Member-Secretary, IPC
(iii) Md. Abdul Mannan,
IPC Member
(iv) Mr. Md. Mizanur Rahman
(v) Mr. Sk. Md. Abubakar Abdullah,
Participant
Study of 03 May 2012 Bangladesh Thunderstorm and 05
June 2012 Pakistan Dust Storm by using WRF Model with
3DVAR Technique
Study of the properties of thunderstorm events occurred in
Bangladesh and adjoining Assam State of India using NWP
Technique
Impact of Radar data on thunderstorm simulation using
WRF-3DVAR
Assimilation of DWR Reflectivity in WRF-3DVAR in
Simulating Thunderstorms over Bangladesh
Seminar on
“Results and Review of SAARC STORM Field
Experiments”
Venue: Best Western Hotel
Islamabad, Pakistan: 05-06 September 2012
PROGRAMME
DAY – 1:
05 SEPTEMBER 2012
09:30 – 10:00:
ARRIVAL OF GUESTS & REGISTRATION
10:00 – 11:00:
INAUGURATION
-
Welcome Address by Mr. Arif Mahmood, DG, PMD
-
Introduction of the Participants
-
Vote of Thanks by Mr. Ata Hussain, Head Synoptic Division,
SMRC- Dhakka, Bangladesh
11:00 – 11:30:
TEA BREAK
TECHNICAL SESSIONS
SESSION-I: Numerical Modeling and Simulation of Local Severe Storms
CHAIRMAN: Mr. S.H. Kariyaswam, Sri Lanka
RAPPORTEUR: Ms. Mahnaz Khan, BMD, Bangladesh
Sl.
No.
01
TIME
TOPICS & AUTHOR(S)
11:30 – 12:00
-
02
12:00 – 12:30
NWP Tools for Improving Forecasting of
High Impacts Thunderstorms by Azmat
Hayat and M. Hanif
Thunderstorm Climatology over the
Maldives by Zahid
03
12:30 – 13:00
Thunderstorm
Distribution
and
Frequency in Nepal by Rajendra
Prasad.Shrestha
- Mr. Rajendra
Prasad
Shrestha,
Nepal
LUNCH BREAK (13:00 – 14:00)
SPEAKER
-
Azmat Hayat
Khan,
Pakistan
Dr.
Zahid,
Maldives
DAY-1 (Continued)
SESSION-II: Numerical Modeling and Simulation of Local Severe Storms Country
Reports
CHAIRMAN: Madan Lall Shrestha, Nepal
RAPPORTEUR: Jan Muhammad Khan, PMD
Sl.
No.
04
TIME
14:00-14:30
05
14:30 – 15:00
06
15:00 – 15:30
07
TOPICS & AUTHORS
SPEAKER
Data Assimilation and Simulation of
Severe Thunderstorms during SAARC
STORM PROGRAM by S. Kiran Prasad,
U. C. Mohanty, Krishna K. Osuri and
Dinesh Kumar
Impact of Radar data on thunderstorm
simulation using WRF-3DVAR by Md.
Mizanur Rahman, Mohan Kumar Das and
Sujit Kumar Debsarma
Assimilation of DWR Reflectivity in
WRF-3DVAR
in
Simulatingt
thunderstorms over Bangladesh by Sk.
Md. Abubakar Abdullah, Mohan K. Das
and Sujit K. Debsarma
TEA BREAK (15:30 – 16:00)
-
S. Kiran
Prasad
-
Md. Mizanur
Rahman
-
Sk. Md.
Abubakar
Abdullah
16:00– 16:15
Country Report of Afghanistan
-
08
16:15 – 16:30
-
09
16:30 – 16:45
An Overall Study of Thunderstorms of 2012
in Bangladesh
Country Report of Bhutan
10
16:45 - 17:00
Country Report of Sri Lanka
-
Mahnaz Khan
- Tshencho Dorji
S.H.
Kariyaswam
TECHNICAL SESSION
DAY – 2: 06 SEPTEMBER 2012
SESSION-I: Numerical Modeling and Simulation of Local Severe Storms
CHAIRMAN: MS Mahnaz Khan, Bangladesh
RAPPORTEUR: Dr. Khalid Mahmood, PMD
Sl.
No.
01
TIME
09:30 – 10:15
02
10:15 – 11:00
TOPIC
Study of 03 May 2012 Bangladesh
Thunderstorm and 05 June 2012
Pakistan Dust Storm by using WRF
Model with 3DVAR Technique by Sujit
Kumar Debsarma, Mohan Kumar Das
and Arjumand Habib
Study of the properties of thunderstorm
events occurred in Bangladesh and
adjoining Assam State of India using
NWP Technique by Md. Abdul Mannan,
Sujit Kumar Debsarma and Arjumand
Habib
SPEAKER
– Sujit Kumar
Debsarma
- Md. Abdul
Mannan
TEA BREAK (11:00 – 11:30)
PANEL DISCUSSION
CHAIR: Mr. Ata Hussain, SMRC, PMD and Mr. Madan Lall, Nepal
Rapporteur: Mr. Md. Abdul Mannan, SMRC
Panel Members: IPC Members and Participants of SAARC Member States
11:30 – 12:30
12:30 – 12:45
GROUP DISCUSSION & RECOMMENDATION
CLOSING SEMINAR & WRAP UP
12:45 – 13:15 PHOTO SESSION & Presentation of Memento (Crests)
LUNCH BREAK (13:15 – 14:15)
14:15 – onward
SIGHT SEEING
------------------------------------- END OF PROGRAMME --------------------------------
Data Assimilation and Simulation of Severe Thunderstorms during
SAARC STORM PROGRAM
S. Kiran Prasad1*, U. C. Mohanty1, Krishna K. Osuri1 and Dinesh Kumar2
1
Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, Hauz Khas,
New Delhi-110016, *E-mail: skp29879@gmail.com
2
School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi-110016
ABSTRACT
Severe thunderstorms with tremendous damage potential are the most dominant
feature of the weather during the pre-monsoon months of April and May over east and
northeast India and adjoining regions of Bangladesh. These convective storms are locally
known as Nor’westers or ‘Kal Baisakhi. Dry convective systems such as sand storms, dust
storms/ thunderstorms are prominent over northwestern India, Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Forecasting of local severe storms is a daunting challenge due to great complexity of the
processes involved and interplay of many factors. Part of the problem is due to small time
scales of these disturbances which enable only short lead times for forecasting. The initiation,
intensification and propagation of thunderstorms are mostly governed by the synoptic
situation and localized thermodynamic conditions of the atmosphere. The topography of the
region also plays a significant role in initiation of convective activities over the region during
the period. Prediction of these severe thunderstorms in advance is vital as it would minimize
the damages associated with them. Over the last decade, high resolution mesoscale models
with three dimensional variational technique (3DVAR) are being increasingly applied for
studying severe weather phenomena as these models possess the capability of generating
reasonably good forecast of severe weather phenomena. However the numerical simulations
are hampered by inappropriate representation of initial and boundary conditions used from a
global model output of courser resolution, this issue is addressed by assimilating observations
from various platforms into the model initial condition which would give way for better
prediction of these events.
The high-resolution Doppler weather radar (DWR) observation is an important data
source for mesoscale/microscale weather analysis and forecasting. Currently, the variational
techniques have received considerable attention for assimilation of DWR radial velocity and
reflectivity observations. Reflectivity assimilation has more impact on the moisture and
hydrometeors. On the other hand, the assimilation of radial velocity has primary impact on
the wind analysis and the effect on moisture and hydrometeor analysis is secondary.
However, the assimilation of both radial velocity and reflectivity leads to adjustments in both
the dynamical and thermodynamical fields. It is observed that the model initial condition
improved significantly after assimilation of DWR observation as compared to the without
assimilation experiment. The impact of the DWR data is witnessed in the dynamic and
thermodynamic fields which gave way for reduction in temporal error in thunderstorm
initiation and improved rainfall spatially and quantitatively.
Further, it is a well know fact that soil moisture (SM) and soil temperature (ST) play
an important role in modulating the mesoscale deep convection associated with high impact
weather events. These parameters are often not represented well in the initial condition which
leads to poor surface flux gradients. So improvement of the SM/ST in the model initial
condition by using Land Surface Data Assimilation (LDAS) system is showing promising
results. It has been observed that there has been remarkable improvement in PBL temperature
and moisture which have led to high CAPE and low CINE. Improved SM/ST could predict
reflectivity echoes and rain bands efficiently.
Assimilation of satellite radiance data into the model initial conditions has shown
good improvement in the simulation of severe thunderstorms. Assimilation has improved the
simulation results by capturing the surface meteorological variables like relative humidity,
temperature and rainfall reasonably close to observation. Further, significant improvement is
noticed in location and intensity of rainfall and reflectivity. Vertical profiles of relative
humidity, vertical velocity and mixing ratio have improved significantly after assimilation of
the satellite radiance data. Hence, the future work is to integrate all these techniques and
bring about a better prediction system, which should be capable of a realistic prediction of
severe thunderstorms over the SAARC STORM region.
Keywords: SAARC STORM PROGRAM, Thunderstorm simulation, Data assimilation,
Doppler Weather Radar, LDAS, Satellite radiance.
Thunderstorm Climatology over the Maldives
Zahid
Maldives Meteorological service
Male, Maldives
E-mail: zahid@met.gov.mv, zahidhameed@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
Maldives is located at the equator and experiences monsoonal climate. Maldives has two
distinct seasons; dry season (northeast monsoon) extending from January to March and wet
season (southwest monsoon) runs from mid-May to November. To study the thunderstorm
climatology of the Maldives, data from five meteorological stations stretched from about 7°
N and 0.5° S was used. The data period covers from 1975 to 2007. Thunder Day was
considered as if one or more thunderstorms are observed at the station on that day. Analysis
of the thunder days indicate that thunderstorms are experienced throughout the year over the
Maldives region (maritime region). Results indicate that more frequent thunderstorms occur
in central and northern part of the country. There are two peak thunderstorm seasons in these
regions; one extending from April to June and the other from October to December. These
two peaks coincide with the transitional period between the two seasons (Southwest monsoon
and Northeast monsoon) that are experienced in the Maldives. Results also suggest that there
exists little seasonal variation in thunderstorm activities in southern part of the country.
However, more thunderstorms are observed in the period from March to August.
Thunderstorm Distribution and Frequency in Nepal
Rajendra P.Shrestha
Meteorological Forecasting Division
Department of Hydrology and Meteorology
E-mail: rp_shrestha@hotmail.com
ABSTRACT
Present and past weather reports from 15 stations across the country from 2000 to 2011 were
analyzed to determine the frequency of occurrence and the percentage of the monthly and
seasonal thunderstorm. In this paper, the mean geographical, seasonal and inter-annual
variations in the frequencies are documented. Occurrence of thunderstorm (TS) over Nepal
has wide variation in terms of both space and time. The study has reveled that TS are most
frequent over eastern part of Nepal which is proximity of Norwester area and generally
decrease towards west significantly. The study shows that frequency in the pre-monsoon
season (March-May) is slightly lower as compared to monsoon season. However, frequency
of TS is higher in pre-monsoon month April and May. Likewise, the preferred time of
occurrence of TS is in the afternoon in almost all months. The study shows that there is an
increasing trend in TS days in the west than east. This year, using Helsinki based server
DHM has introduced Lightning Tracking Software (LTS2005) to study thunderstorm
activities over our region in the Norwester period April 15-31 May 2012. Important events
during the period has been studied.
NWP Tools for Improving Forecasting of High Impacts Thunderstorms
Azmat Hayat1 M. Hanif 1
Pakistan Meteorological Department
Islamabad-Pakistan
E-mail: dirndmc@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
This paper describes the results of SMRC STORM Project in Pakistan perspective and
highlights the challenges and research opportunities for predicting thunderstorms at
operational level. It highlights the use of NWP products for delineating thunderstorms
regions and possible migration track over the time for mitigation purposes.
The paper ingests SMRC predictions, satellite, observed and NWP fields to elaborate needs
for additional data in STORM project bulletins to help forecasting centers to use it for
operational forecasting of thunderstorms.
Since thunderstorms are one of Mother Nature’s most awesome weather phenomenons, the
paper also describes some identified opportunities for research focused on establishing good
decisions amongst client groups because there are significant gaps between research findings
and the ability to transfer the information into operational techniques.
Study of 03 May 2012 Bangladesh Thunderstorm and 05 June 2012
Pakistan Dust Storm by using WRF Model with 3DVAR Technique
Sujit Kumar Debsarma*, Mohan Kumar Das and Arjumand Habib
SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC)
Agargaon, Dhaka 1207, Bangladesh
*E-mail of presenting author: sujit.debsarma@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
South Asian countries are ravaged by pre-monsoon local severe thunderstorms every year. In
2012, Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan experienced some local severe storms. SAARC
STORM (Severe Thunderstorm Observation and Regional Modeling) Programme (Phase I)
started in 2009 and is being continued among Bangladesh, Bhutan, east & northeast India and
Nepal during 15 April to 31 May. Phase-II of the STORM Programme started from 2012
among Afghanistan, northwest India and Pakistan and will continue up to 2014 during 01
May to 15 June each year. Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Lahore and Punjab of Pakistan
were affected by a sand storm of 05 June 2012. West Bengal, Bihar and Bangladesh
experienced moderate/severe thunderstorm (60-100 km/hr) on 03 May 2012. These two cases
of SAARC STORM Phase – I & II have been studied in this paper. Six hourly Final
Reanalysis (FNL) data of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) have been
used as input to WRF-ARW Model for the simulations.
Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) observations (radial winds and reflectivity) of Bangladesh
Meteorological Departments (BMD) are used for Bangladesh case of 03 May 2012 in order to
update the initial and boundary conditions through three-dimensional variational assimilation
(3DVAR) technique within Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW)
Model. The model results are also compared with the Kalpana-1 images and the India
Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted results. Due to insufficient upper air data,
Pakistan case of 05 June 2012 have just been simulated by WRF-ARW Model. Grid Analysis
and Display System (GrADS) has been employed for visualization. Model results show some
spatio-temporal shifts. 3DVAR Data Assimilation in WRF-ARW Model shows little
improvement in forecasts.
Keywords: SAARC STORM, WRF-ARW Model, 3DVAR Data assimilation, Doppler
Weather Radar (DWR), radial winds, reflectivity, Grid Analysis and Display System
(GrADS).
Study of the properties of thunderstorm events occurred in Bangladesh and
adjoining Assam State of India using NWP Technique
Md. Abdul Mannan1, Sujit Kumar Debsarma2 and Arjumand Habib3
SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), Dhaka, Bangladesh
E-mail: mannan_u2003@yahoo.co.in
1, 2, 3
ABSTRACT
To identify the formation mechanism and to detect the characteristics associated with
thunderstorm occurred over Bangladesh and Assam State of India on 30 April and 01 May of
2012, WRF model (version 3.2.1) is run with the resolution of 9 km using initial and
boundary condition of NCEP FNL data. The simulation is conducted with the cumulus
parameterization schemes of Kain-Fritsch (KF) with the combination of Kessler (KS), Lin et
al. (LN), WRF Single-Moment 3 Class (WSM3) and WRF Single-Moment 5 Class (WSM5),
WRF Single-Moment 6 Class (WSM6) microphysics schemes. The simulated parameters of
Sea Level Pressure, Temperature, Relative Humidity, Convective Available Potential Energy
(CAPE), Vertical Velocity, Cloud Water Mixing Ratio, Rain Water Mixing Ratio, Wind
Speed at different levels, Convective and Non-convective Rain, Reflectivity, Outgoing Long
Wave Radiation, etc and derived parameters of Divergence and Vorticity are analyzed with
the help of Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS) software. Analysis reveals the
signature of wind discontinuity in association with the existence of convergence and positive
vorticity is responsible for formation of thunderstorm however moisture supply, existence of
convergence zone supported by a divergence zone and existence of positive vorticity zone
supported by a divergence zone in the upper levels are the prime conditions for intensifying
of thunderstorms over Bangladesh and adjoining Assam States of India. Analysis also
demonstrates the analogous outcome of recorded information in some cases.
Key words: Divergence, NCEP, Thunderstorm, Vorticity, WRF Model.
Impact of Radar data on thunderstorm simulation using WRF-3DVAR
Md. Mizanur Rahman, Mohan Kumar Das and Sujit Kumar Debsarma
SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC),
Dhaka, Bangladesh
E-mail: mrahmansmrc@yahoo.com
ABSTRACT
Severe local storms, including tornadoes, devastating hail and wind gusts/squall frequently
occur over the northwestern and southwestern parts of Bangladesh during the pre-monsoon
season (March-May). Forecast of thunderstorms is one of the most difficult tasks in weather
prediction, due to their rather small spatial and temporal extension and the inherent nonlinearity of their dynamics and physics. The variational data assimilation approach is one of
the most useful techniques available to directly assimilate heterogeneous mesoscale
observations in order to improve the estimate of the model’s initial state. In this study,
sensitivity experiments are conducted with the WRF and WRF-3DVAR model to test the
impact of convective parameterization schemes on simulating severe thunderstorms that
occurred over Bangladesh on 11 May and 19 May in 2011 and validated the model results
with observation. A statistical analysis based on root mean square error and correlation
coefficient is performed for comparisons between the simulated and observed data with
different convective schemes.
Keywords: Thunderstorms; Data assimilation; statistical analysis
Assimilation of DWR Reflectivity in WRF-3DVAR in Simulating
Thunderstorms over Bangladesh
Sk. Md. Abubakar Abdullah*, 1, 2, Mohan K. Das2, Sujit K. Debsarma2
1Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, Bangladesh
2SAARC Meteorological Research Centre, Dhaka, Bangladesh
*Corresponding Author’s E-mail: smab.abdullah@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
Bangladesh, being topped in the world most vulnerable countries, is affected by natural
calamities like thunderstorms, mainly, in the pre-monsoon season (March-May), very often,
which are very challenging to predict. In the present study an attempt was made to study two
such events, with large squalls accompanied by rainfall and gusty wind in many parts of
Bangladesh and surroundings, on 21 and 23 May, 2011 with the help of WRF-ARW and
3DVAR data assimilation technique. Cumulus sensitivity of the WRF-ARW was also tested
with Kain-Fritsch (KF) and Grell-Devenyi (GD) schemes. For the study, 1°X1° reanalysis
data for initial and boundary condition were collected from NCEP. Different dynamics of
both the events were studied and compared with the available observation from national
meteorological offices of the SAARC countries and also with the TRMM rainfall. An idea of
the impact of cumulus schemes and data assimilation in WRF-ARW were obtained though
the present study.
Key-words: data assimilation, WRF-ARW, thunderstorms, Bangladesh
Final List of Foreign IPC Members/Resource Persons and Participants for Scientific
Seminar in Islamabad, Pakistan during 05-06 September 2012
Sl.
No
Names
1
Prof. U.C. Mohanty
IPC Member (Chairman PIC)
2
Dr. Madan Lall Shrestha
IPC Member
3
Mr. S.H.M. Fakhruddin
IPC Member
4
Mr. Kiran P. Siripurapu,
Resource Person
5
Dr. P.P. Nageswara Rao,
ISRO Team Leader
6
Dr. (Ms.) T.S. Shoba,
IPC Member
7
Shri Ranga Rao,
DWR Expert
8
Afghanistan
9
Ms. Mahnaz Khan,
IPC Member
10
Mr. Tshencho Dorji
IPC Member
11
Mr. B.P. Yadav, Scientist E, IPC
Member
12
13
Dr. Zahid,
IPC Member,
E-mail: zahidhameed@gmail.com
Mr. Saraju Kumar Baidya,
IPC Member
14
Mr. Rajendra Prasad Shrestha
Seminar Participant
15
Mr. Sunil H. Kariyawasam
IPC Member, E-mail:
sunilhaputhantiri@yahoo.com
Mr. Ata Hussain,
Head, Synoptic Division,
Email:atahussaingill@gmail.com
16
17
18
Mr. Sujit Kumar Debsarma, IPC
Member-Secretary, & Scientist,
Theoretical Division
Mr. Md. Abdul Mannan,
Scientist, Synoptic Division
Address
Arrival in
Islamabad
Departure
Head, Deptt. of Atmospheric Sciences
IIT, New Delhi, India,
Email: ucmohanty@gmail.com
Academician, Nepal Academy of Science
& Technology, Kathmandu, Nepal,
Email: madanls@hotmail.com
Team Leader – Hydrology, RIMES,
Thailand,
E-mail: fakhruddin@rimes.int
02SEP 2012
BY EK-614
AT 01:25 AM
01 SEP 2012
by PK-0658 at
22:25
03 Sep 2012
by TG-349 at
2210 hrs
05 SEP 2012,
BY EK-615
AT 03:10 AM
06 SEP 2012
by PK-0365 at
07:00 AM
05 SEP 2012
by TG-350 at
2320 hrs
Deptt. of Atmospheric Sciences,
IIT, New Delhi, India,
Email: skp29879@gmail.com
Programme Director, ISRO GeosphereBiosphere Programme (IGBP) at ISRO
HQs, Email: ppn@isro.gov.in
Director (Tech. & Services), ISRO,
Bangalore, India.
E-mail: shoba@antrix.gov.in
Deputy Director, Radar Development
Area (RDA), at ISTRAC
E-mail: ranga_rao@hotmail.com
Afghanistan Met Authority (AMA),
Kabul Airport, Email:
afghanistan_met_authority@hotmail.com
Bangladesh Meteorological Department,
Agargaon, Dhaka-1207
E-mail: info@bmd.gov.bd
Department of Hydro-Met Services,
Thimpu, Bhutan
Email: tshencho_dorji@yahoo.com
India Meteorological Deptt. (IMD), Lodi
Road, New Delhi, India, Email:
bp_yadav4@yahoo.co.in
Director, Maldives Meteorological
Service, Male, Maldives.
E-mail: zahid@met.gov.mv
DDG, Department of Hydrology &
Meteorology, Kathmandu, Nepal.
E-mail: sarajubaidya@yahoo.com
Senior Div. Meteorologist, Department of
Hydrology & Meteorology, Nepal.
E-mail: rp_shrestha@hotmail.com
Director General, Department of
Meteorology, Colombo-7, Sri Lanka.
E-mail: meteo@slt.lk,
SAARC Meteorological Research Centre
(SMRC), E-4/C, Agargaon, Dhaka-1207,
Bangladesh.
04 SEP 2012
by Emirates at
01:25 am
Inability to
attend
07 SEP 2012
by Emirates at
09:00 am
- Ditto –
E-mail:sujit.debsarma@gmail.com
- Ditto –
E-mail: mannan_u2003@yahoo.co.in
Inability to
attend
x
x
01 SEP 2012
by PIA at 2055
hrs
01 SEP 2012
BY PK-658, at
22:25
Inability to
attend
07 SEP 2012
by PIA at 2200
hrs
08 SEP 2012
PK-649, at
07:00 AM
02 SEP 2012
BY QR-398 at
03:10 AM
01 SEP 2012
by PK-0658 at
22:25
04 Sep 2012
By PK-562
At 01:45 AM
01 SEP 2012
by PK-370 at
20 55 hrs
02 SEP 2012
(SUNDAY)
BY EK-614
AT 01:25 AM
02 SEP 2012
BY EK-614
AT 01:25 AM
02 SEP 2012
(SUNDAY)
08 SEP 2012
BY QR-399 at
04:40 AM
06 SEP 2012
by PK-0365 at
07:00 AM
08 Sep 2012
By PK-649
At 07:00 AM
07 SEP 2012
by PK-301 at
1000 hours
07 SEP 2012
BY EK-613
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x
07 SEP 2012
BY EK-613
AT 09:00 AM
07 SEP 2012
BY EK-613
19
Mr. Md. Mizanur Rahman,
Research Officer
- Ditto –
E-mail: mrahmansmrc@yahoo.com
20
Mr. Sk. Md. Abubakar Abdullah
Asstt. Research Officer
- Ditto –
E-mail: abphy_2005@yahoo.com
BY EK-614
AT 01:25 AM
04 SEP 2012
(TUESDAY)
BY EK-614
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04 SEP 2012
(TUESDAY)
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07 SEP 2012
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Inaugural Message
by
Ms. Arjumand Habib
SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), Bangladesh
Delivered by
Mr. Ata Hussain
Synoptic Division of SMRC
Honourable Mr. ------------------------Secretary , Ministry of Defence, Government of Pakistan
Mr. Arif Mahmood,
Director General, Pakistan Meteorological Department
Professor Uma Charan Mohanty, Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi, and
Chairman of Project Implementation Committee of SAARC STORM Programme and
IPC Member
Madam (Dr.) T.S. Shoba, Director (Tech. & Services), Indian Space Research
Organization (ISRO), Bangalore, India and IPC Member.
& all Honourable Members of IPC and Delegates from the SAARC Member States
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Assalam O Alaykum and Very Good Morning!
I feel it very honoured to deliver this inaugural message of Director SMRC at the 5 th SAARC
STORM International Programme Committee (IPC) Meeting in Islamabad and it gives me
immense pleasure to welcome all the distinguished IPC Members and delegates from the
SAARC Member States on this occasion.
Earlier this meeting was scheduled to be held in Islamabad in April, 2012 just before the start
of STORM Field Experiments in Afghanistan, Pakistan and NW India, during May -June
2012 as part of the Second Phase of SAARC STORM Field Experiments. However, the
meeting was to be postponed due to some unforeseen circumstances. Now, I am very happy
that the 5th IPC Meeting is taking place in Islamabad back-to-back with the SAARC Seminar
on Results and Reviews of STORM Field Experiments.
STORM is the acronym for “Severe Thunderstorm: Observations and Regional Modeling”.
The STORM Programme which is the brain-child of the eminent Prof. Mohanty was
originated in India in 2005 to improve understanding of the genesis, development and
propagation of severe thunderstorms and development of meso-scale prediction system. As
part of this Programme, the Pilot Field Experiments were conducted in the west Bengal and
in the NE India during April - May in 2007 & 2008. In November 2008, the14th Governing
Board Meeting of SMRC also approved that the STORM Project may also be carried out for
the SAARC Region. Eventually, the SAARC Standing Committee, the Programme
Committee, and the Council of Ministers endorsed the project in February, 2009. During the
next month in March 2009, the International Programme Committee i.e. IPC of STORM
Programme was constituted and its First Meeting was held in April 2009 at New Delhi. The
Meeting recommended for renaming the project as SAARC STORM Programme. I feel it
very proud that Prof. Mohanty, the mentor of the SAARC STORM Programme is also with
us at this 5th IPC Meeting.
Ladies & Gentlemen!
SAARC STORM is a unique programme, may be the first of its kind which is being
implemented by utilizing our own regional resources and available infrastructure without any
support from the external resources. We should be very proud of SAARC STORM
Programme because it is our own Project supported by all the Member countries.
On this occasion, I am very pleased to inform you that as approved by the 17th Governing
Board Meeting of SMRC (which held last year in 2011), SMRC Dhaka has recently signed an
M o U with Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), Government of India in June 2012
as part of the SAARC STORM Programme. I am extremely grateful to the Indian Space
Research Organization for their support and very glad that delegates from Indian Space
Research Centre are also attending this meeting.
Ladies & Gentlemen!
The SAARC STORM Programme is a long-term Project of SAARC Meteorological Research
Centre. It has three phases. In the First Phase, well-coordinated Field Experiments were
started in 2009 in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and the northeastern parts of India and these are
still continuing. In the Second Phase which started this year 2012, Field Experiments were
also carried out in Afghanistan, Pakistan and northwestern parts of India during May-June
and the Experiments will continue up to 2014. The Third Phase of SAARC STORM
Programme is scheduled to start in 2013 when Field Experiments will be carried out in
Maldives, Sri Lanka and peninsular south India and the experiments will continue up to 2015.
Therefore, participation of IPC Members especially from Afghanistan, Maldives, Pakistan
and Sri Lanka is very important in this 5th IPC Meeting in order to have discussion on
selection of sites for special observations and augmentation of observing network system in
Afghanistan and Pakistan and also on assessments and requirements of Met. Infrastructure in
Afghanistan, Maldives, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. I am glad that most of the IPC Members are
attending the meeting.
Ladies & Gentlemen!
SAARC has now eight brotherly countries as members which have many commonalities. It
provides a common platform for the people of South Asia to work together in a spirit of
friendship, trust and better understanding. It aims at promoting the welfare of the people of
South Asia and to improve their quality of life through economic growth, social progress,
scientific research and cultural development in the region. SAARC Meteorological Research
Centre since its inception in January, 1995, has been supported by all the SAARC Member
States and therefore SAARC Meteorological Research Centre is indebted to all the Member
countries especially the Heads of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of
SAARC Region for their continued support to SAARC Meteorological Research Centre and
its programmes and activities. Since last year, in addition to SAARC STORM Programme,
SMRC is also involved in another long-term programme which is SAARC Intergovernmental Monsoon Initiative. Therefore, I would like to urge the SAARC Member States
and the Heads of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services to extend their full
involvement, cooperation and support to the activities under this programme also because it is
only through the Member countries support and collaborative efforts of NMHSs that SMRC
can fulfill its objective and mandate.
In the end, I would like to express my sincere thanks and gratitude to the Government of
Pakistan and Pakistan Meteorological Department for hosting the 5th IPC Meeting and
SARRC Seminar on “Results and Reviews of STORM Field Experiments” in Islamabad. I
wish for the fruitful and successful outcomes of the 5th IPC Meeting and the Seminar. I
envisage that the recommendations of the meetings will effectively contribute to the
successful accomplishment of the SAARC STORM Programme in the years to come.
With these few words, I would like to thank you once again and convey Director SMRC’s
profound gratitude to you for attending this ceremony and the SAARC Meetings.
Thank you and wish you all the best!
SAARC
CONCEPT PAPER
Scientific Seminar on “Results and Review of SAARC STORM Field Experiments”
During 05-06 September 2012
Jointly Organized by
Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Islamabad, Pakistan
&
SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), Dhaka, Bangladesh
Preamble:
Thunderstorm or nor’wester (locally known as “Kal baishakhi” in West Bengal and
Bangladesh) is one of the major disasters in the South Asian Association for Regional
Cooperation (SAARC) region. Some of the nor’westers, being supported by deep layer of
atmospheric conditional instability, sudden pressure fall by 25 hPa or more, convergence up
to 700 hPa and Jet Stream (core wind ≥ 50 knots at 500 hPa), attain the intensity of a tornado
when casualty rose from three to four figures. Severe thunderstorms have high impacts on
lives and properties. Though a small area is affected by a single severe thunderstorm or a
tornado but building structures are sometimes totally collapsed, tube-wells are up-rooted,
many people and animals are killed or severely injured. Some people lose their limbs and
become handicapped. Hence accurate forecast of severe thunderstorms is of prime
importance. Since these thunderstorms are short lived mesoscale phenomena their forecast is
very difficult. These thunderstorms occur at spatial scale ranging from a few kilometers to a
couple of 100 kilometers and so it is desirable to establish a mesonet of AWS. Under the
SAARC STORM Programme (Phase-I), Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) is
contributing one Doppler Weather Radar (DWR), 50 AWS and 4 GPS Sounding Systems in
Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal. Similarly, the mesonet of observatories need to be
extended covering other parts of thunderstorm / dust storm prone area of SAARC region and
integrate with the network.
Based on the recommendations of 14th, 15th, 16th and 17th Governing Board (GB) Meeting of
SMRC, four Pilot Field Experiments of the SAARC STORM Programme were conducted
during 15 April to 31 May of 2009 to 2012 jointly in Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal
collecting intensive observations on pre-monsoon thunderstorms (Nor’westers) in a
coordinated way. Afghanistan, northwestern India and Pakistan conducted the First Pilot
Field Experiment of the Second Phase of the SAARC STORM Programme during 01 May –
15 June 2012 in a well coordinated way to study dry convective systems – sand storms/ dust
storms/ thunderstorms. Maldives, Peninsular India and Sri Lanka will conduct their First Pilot
Field Experiment of the Third Phase of the SAARC STORM Programme in 2013 to study
moist or maritime convective storms. Thus in 2013, all the SAARC Member States will take
part in the SAARC STORM Programme jointly to study continental, dry, moist/maritime
thunderstorms.
Objectives:
The objectives of Field Experiment of STORM Programme are to assemble vast amount of meteorological data consisting of surface, upper air, radar,
satellite, soil moisture, and radiation on large scale and meso-scale environments
evolving strategies for observational systems of large scale, synoptic scale and
mesoscale environments, planetary boundary layer processes, convective dynamics
and cloud microphysics for better understanding of atmospheric processes in different
stages of convective development;
 to understand the cloud microphysical, radiative and dynamical processes;
 to develop cloud and radiation parameterization for the use in Numerical Weather
Prediction (NWP) Models; and
 to prepare a well designed coordinated plan for monitoring Nor’westers / severe
thunderstorms/dust storms/sand storms over SAARC region during pre-monsoon
season.
In order to discuss the results of the Field Experiment and to review the progress of the
SAARC STORM Programme a Scientific Seminar will be held in Islamabad, Pakistan during
05-06 September 2012.
All SAARC Member States are requested to participate in the Seminar.
Organizing the Scientific Seminar:
SMRC is going to organize the Seminar jointly with the Pakistan Meteorological Department
(PMD), Islamabad, Pakistan on ‘Results and Review of SAARC STORM Field
Experiment-2012’. SMRC will also bear the expenses related to local hospitality and
accommodation of the selected Participants.
Action required:
The Member States may kindly confirm their participation by nominating 2 (Two) Scientists,
who are associated with the relevant field. Participants are requested to make 20-30 minute
MS-Power Point Presentations on the basis of their research work by using SAARC STORM
Field Experiment datasets. It is also requested to send the nominations along with abstracts
through E-mail / Fax to the following address.
Venue: Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Islamabad, Pakistan.
Deadline for Nominations:
Deadline for Submission of Abstract
Address: 1.
20 August 2012
23 August 2012
Director
SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC),
E-4/C, Agargaon, Sher-E-Bangla Nagar, Dhaka – 1207,
Bangladesh.
Phone : +880 2 8181728, 8181729, 8181730 (Office)
FAX : +880 2 8181727
E-mail: director@saarc-smrc.org, sujit.debsarma@gmail.com
2.
Mr. Jan Muhammad Khan
Director
Pakistan Meteorological Department
HQs Office, Sector H - 8/2,
Islamabad - 44000, PAKISTAN.
Phone: +92-51-9250596, Fax: +92-51-9250368
Email: ddpakmet@yahoo.com
International & Local Organizing Committee
Coordinators
1. Mr. Jan Muhammad Khan, Director, Pakistan Meteorological Department, PMD Planning
Directorate, HQs Office, Sector H - 8/2, Islamabad - 44000, Pakistan.
2. Mr. Sujit Kumar Debsarma, Scientist, Theoretical Division, SAARC Meteorological
Research Centre (SMRC), E-4/C, Agargaon, Dhaka-1207, Bangladesh.
Seminar/Programme Committe
1. Mr. Jan Muhammad Khan, Director, Pakistan Meteorological Department, PMD Planning
Directorate, HQs Office, Sector H - 8/2, Islamabad - 44000, Pakistan.
2. Mr. Sujit Kumar Debsarma, Scientist, Theoretical Division, SAARC Meteorological
Research Centre (SMRC), Dhaka, Bangladesh.
3.
Secretariat
1.
Reception Committe
1.