Seminar on “Results and Review of SAARC STORM Field Experiments” Islamabad, Pakistan: 05-06 September 2012 Jointly Organized by Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) & SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), Dhaka, Bangladesh Seminar on “Results and Review of SAARC STORM Field Experiments” Islamabad, Pakistan: 05-06 September 2012 IPC Members, Resource Persons and Participants with Scientific Papers Country Name of Officials Title of the abstract Afghanistan Ms. Nabila Formoli -------- Bangladesh Ms. Mahnaz Khan, IPC Member Bhutan Mr. Tshencho Dorji, IPC Member An Overall Study of Thunderstorms of 2012 in Bangladesh Country Report of Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Mr. S. Kiran Prasad, Resource Person Dr. Zahid, IPC Member Mr. Saraju Kumar Baidya, IPC Member Mr. Rajendra P. Shrestha, Participant Mr. Azmat Hayat Khan, IPC Member Data Assimilation and Simulation of Severe Thunderstorms during SAARC STORM PROGRAM Thunderstorm Climatology over the Maldives Thunderstorm Distribution and Frequency in Nepal Heavy Rainfall Forecast by High Resolution Regional Model (HRM) and its Validation over Pakistan Sri Lanka Mr. S.H. Kariyaswam, IPC Member IIT-Delhi, India Prof. U.C. Mohanty, Chairman, PIC, SAARC STORM - NAST, Nepal Dr. Madan Lall Shrestha, Academician Mr. S.H.M. Fakhruddin, IPC Member (i) Mr. Ata Hussain, Representative of Chair-person, IPC - RIMES, Thailand SMRC (ii) Mr. Sujit Kumar Debsarma, Member-Secretary, IPC (iii) Md. Abdul Mannan, IPC Member (iv) Mr. Md. Mizanur Rahman (v) Mr. Sk. Md. Abubakar Abdullah, Participant Study of 03 May 2012 Bangladesh Thunderstorm and 05 June 2012 Pakistan Dust Storm by using WRF Model with 3DVAR Technique Study of the properties of thunderstorm events occurred in Bangladesh and adjoining Assam State of India using NWP Technique Impact of Radar data on thunderstorm simulation using WRF-3DVAR Assimilation of DWR Reflectivity in WRF-3DVAR in Simulating Thunderstorms over Bangladesh Seminar on “Results and Review of SAARC STORM Field Experiments” Venue: Best Western Hotel Islamabad, Pakistan: 05-06 September 2012 PROGRAMME DAY – 1: 05 SEPTEMBER 2012 09:30 – 10:00: ARRIVAL OF GUESTS & REGISTRATION 10:00 – 11:00: INAUGURATION - Welcome Address by Mr. Arif Mahmood, DG, PMD - Introduction of the Participants - Vote of Thanks by Mr. Ata Hussain, Head Synoptic Division, SMRC- Dhakka, Bangladesh 11:00 – 11:30: TEA BREAK TECHNICAL SESSIONS SESSION-I: Numerical Modeling and Simulation of Local Severe Storms CHAIRMAN: Mr. S.H. Kariyaswam, Sri Lanka RAPPORTEUR: Ms. Mahnaz Khan, BMD, Bangladesh Sl. No. 01 TIME TOPICS & AUTHOR(S) 11:30 – 12:00 - 02 12:00 – 12:30 NWP Tools for Improving Forecasting of High Impacts Thunderstorms by Azmat Hayat and M. Hanif Thunderstorm Climatology over the Maldives by Zahid 03 12:30 – 13:00 Thunderstorm Distribution and Frequency in Nepal by Rajendra Prasad.Shrestha - Mr. Rajendra Prasad Shrestha, Nepal LUNCH BREAK (13:00 – 14:00) SPEAKER - Azmat Hayat Khan, Pakistan Dr. Zahid, Maldives DAY-1 (Continued) SESSION-II: Numerical Modeling and Simulation of Local Severe Storms Country Reports CHAIRMAN: Madan Lall Shrestha, Nepal RAPPORTEUR: Jan Muhammad Khan, PMD Sl. No. 04 TIME 14:00-14:30 05 14:30 – 15:00 06 15:00 – 15:30 07 TOPICS & AUTHORS SPEAKER Data Assimilation and Simulation of Severe Thunderstorms during SAARC STORM PROGRAM by S. Kiran Prasad, U. C. Mohanty, Krishna K. Osuri and Dinesh Kumar Impact of Radar data on thunderstorm simulation using WRF-3DVAR by Md. Mizanur Rahman, Mohan Kumar Das and Sujit Kumar Debsarma Assimilation of DWR Reflectivity in WRF-3DVAR in Simulatingt thunderstorms over Bangladesh by Sk. Md. Abubakar Abdullah, Mohan K. Das and Sujit K. Debsarma TEA BREAK (15:30 – 16:00) - S. Kiran Prasad - Md. Mizanur Rahman - Sk. Md. Abubakar Abdullah 16:00– 16:15 Country Report of Afghanistan - 08 16:15 – 16:30 - 09 16:30 – 16:45 An Overall Study of Thunderstorms of 2012 in Bangladesh Country Report of Bhutan 10 16:45 - 17:00 Country Report of Sri Lanka - Mahnaz Khan - Tshencho Dorji S.H. Kariyaswam TECHNICAL SESSION DAY – 2: 06 SEPTEMBER 2012 SESSION-I: Numerical Modeling and Simulation of Local Severe Storms CHAIRMAN: MS Mahnaz Khan, Bangladesh RAPPORTEUR: Dr. Khalid Mahmood, PMD Sl. No. 01 TIME 09:30 – 10:15 02 10:15 – 11:00 TOPIC Study of 03 May 2012 Bangladesh Thunderstorm and 05 June 2012 Pakistan Dust Storm by using WRF Model with 3DVAR Technique by Sujit Kumar Debsarma, Mohan Kumar Das and Arjumand Habib Study of the properties of thunderstorm events occurred in Bangladesh and adjoining Assam State of India using NWP Technique by Md. Abdul Mannan, Sujit Kumar Debsarma and Arjumand Habib SPEAKER – Sujit Kumar Debsarma - Md. Abdul Mannan TEA BREAK (11:00 – 11:30) PANEL DISCUSSION CHAIR: Mr. Ata Hussain, SMRC, PMD and Mr. Madan Lall, Nepal Rapporteur: Mr. Md. Abdul Mannan, SMRC Panel Members: IPC Members and Participants of SAARC Member States 11:30 – 12:30 12:30 – 12:45 GROUP DISCUSSION & RECOMMENDATION CLOSING SEMINAR & WRAP UP 12:45 – 13:15 PHOTO SESSION & Presentation of Memento (Crests) LUNCH BREAK (13:15 – 14:15) 14:15 – onward SIGHT SEEING ------------------------------------- END OF PROGRAMME -------------------------------- Data Assimilation and Simulation of Severe Thunderstorms during SAARC STORM PROGRAM S. Kiran Prasad1*, U. C. Mohanty1, Krishna K. Osuri1 and Dinesh Kumar2 1 Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi-110016, *E-mail: email@example.com 2 School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi-110016 ABSTRACT Severe thunderstorms with tremendous damage potential are the most dominant feature of the weather during the pre-monsoon months of April and May over east and northeast India and adjoining regions of Bangladesh. These convective storms are locally known as Nor’westers or ‘Kal Baisakhi. Dry convective systems such as sand storms, dust storms/ thunderstorms are prominent over northwestern India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Forecasting of local severe storms is a daunting challenge due to great complexity of the processes involved and interplay of many factors. Part of the problem is due to small time scales of these disturbances which enable only short lead times for forecasting. The initiation, intensification and propagation of thunderstorms are mostly governed by the synoptic situation and localized thermodynamic conditions of the atmosphere. The topography of the region also plays a significant role in initiation of convective activities over the region during the period. Prediction of these severe thunderstorms in advance is vital as it would minimize the damages associated with them. Over the last decade, high resolution mesoscale models with three dimensional variational technique (3DVAR) are being increasingly applied for studying severe weather phenomena as these models possess the capability of generating reasonably good forecast of severe weather phenomena. However the numerical simulations are hampered by inappropriate representation of initial and boundary conditions used from a global model output of courser resolution, this issue is addressed by assimilating observations from various platforms into the model initial condition which would give way for better prediction of these events. The high-resolution Doppler weather radar (DWR) observation is an important data source for mesoscale/microscale weather analysis and forecasting. Currently, the variational techniques have received considerable attention for assimilation of DWR radial velocity and reflectivity observations. Reflectivity assimilation has more impact on the moisture and hydrometeors. On the other hand, the assimilation of radial velocity has primary impact on the wind analysis and the effect on moisture and hydrometeor analysis is secondary. However, the assimilation of both radial velocity and reflectivity leads to adjustments in both the dynamical and thermodynamical fields. It is observed that the model initial condition improved significantly after assimilation of DWR observation as compared to the without assimilation experiment. The impact of the DWR data is witnessed in the dynamic and thermodynamic fields which gave way for reduction in temporal error in thunderstorm initiation and improved rainfall spatially and quantitatively. Further, it is a well know fact that soil moisture (SM) and soil temperature (ST) play an important role in modulating the mesoscale deep convection associated with high impact weather events. These parameters are often not represented well in the initial condition which leads to poor surface flux gradients. So improvement of the SM/ST in the model initial condition by using Land Surface Data Assimilation (LDAS) system is showing promising results. It has been observed that there has been remarkable improvement in PBL temperature and moisture which have led to high CAPE and low CINE. Improved SM/ST could predict reflectivity echoes and rain bands efficiently. Assimilation of satellite radiance data into the model initial conditions has shown good improvement in the simulation of severe thunderstorms. Assimilation has improved the simulation results by capturing the surface meteorological variables like relative humidity, temperature and rainfall reasonably close to observation. Further, significant improvement is noticed in location and intensity of rainfall and reflectivity. Vertical profiles of relative humidity, vertical velocity and mixing ratio have improved significantly after assimilation of the satellite radiance data. Hence, the future work is to integrate all these techniques and bring about a better prediction system, which should be capable of a realistic prediction of severe thunderstorms over the SAARC STORM region. Keywords: SAARC STORM PROGRAM, Thunderstorm simulation, Data assimilation, Doppler Weather Radar, LDAS, Satellite radiance. Thunderstorm Climatology over the Maldives Zahid Maldives Meteorological service Male, Maldives E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org, email@example.com ABSTRACT Maldives is located at the equator and experiences monsoonal climate. Maldives has two distinct seasons; dry season (northeast monsoon) extending from January to March and wet season (southwest monsoon) runs from mid-May to November. To study the thunderstorm climatology of the Maldives, data from five meteorological stations stretched from about 7° N and 0.5° S was used. The data period covers from 1975 to 2007. Thunder Day was considered as if one or more thunderstorms are observed at the station on that day. Analysis of the thunder days indicate that thunderstorms are experienced throughout the year over the Maldives region (maritime region). Results indicate that more frequent thunderstorms occur in central and northern part of the country. There are two peak thunderstorm seasons in these regions; one extending from April to June and the other from October to December. These two peaks coincide with the transitional period between the two seasons (Southwest monsoon and Northeast monsoon) that are experienced in the Maldives. Results also suggest that there exists little seasonal variation in thunderstorm activities in southern part of the country. However, more thunderstorms are observed in the period from March to August. Thunderstorm Distribution and Frequency in Nepal Rajendra P.Shrestha Meteorological Forecasting Division Department of Hydrology and Meteorology E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org ABSTRACT Present and past weather reports from 15 stations across the country from 2000 to 2011 were analyzed to determine the frequency of occurrence and the percentage of the monthly and seasonal thunderstorm. In this paper, the mean geographical, seasonal and inter-annual variations in the frequencies are documented. Occurrence of thunderstorm (TS) over Nepal has wide variation in terms of both space and time. The study has reveled that TS are most frequent over eastern part of Nepal which is proximity of Norwester area and generally decrease towards west significantly. The study shows that frequency in the pre-monsoon season (March-May) is slightly lower as compared to monsoon season. However, frequency of TS is higher in pre-monsoon month April and May. Likewise, the preferred time of occurrence of TS is in the afternoon in almost all months. The study shows that there is an increasing trend in TS days in the west than east. This year, using Helsinki based server DHM has introduced Lightning Tracking Software (LTS2005) to study thunderstorm activities over our region in the Norwester period April 15-31 May 2012. Important events during the period has been studied. NWP Tools for Improving Forecasting of High Impacts Thunderstorms Azmat Hayat1 M. Hanif 1 Pakistan Meteorological Department Islamabad-Pakistan E-mail: email@example.com ABSTRACT This paper describes the results of SMRC STORM Project in Pakistan perspective and highlights the challenges and research opportunities for predicting thunderstorms at operational level. It highlights the use of NWP products for delineating thunderstorms regions and possible migration track over the time for mitigation purposes. The paper ingests SMRC predictions, satellite, observed and NWP fields to elaborate needs for additional data in STORM project bulletins to help forecasting centers to use it for operational forecasting of thunderstorms. Since thunderstorms are one of Mother Nature’s most awesome weather phenomenons, the paper also describes some identified opportunities for research focused on establishing good decisions amongst client groups because there are significant gaps between research findings and the ability to transfer the information into operational techniques. Study of 03 May 2012 Bangladesh Thunderstorm and 05 June 2012 Pakistan Dust Storm by using WRF Model with 3DVAR Technique Sujit Kumar Debsarma*, Mohan Kumar Das and Arjumand Habib SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC) Agargaon, Dhaka 1207, Bangladesh *E-mail of presenting author: firstname.lastname@example.org ABSTRACT South Asian countries are ravaged by pre-monsoon local severe thunderstorms every year. In 2012, Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan experienced some local severe storms. SAARC STORM (Severe Thunderstorm Observation and Regional Modeling) Programme (Phase I) started in 2009 and is being continued among Bangladesh, Bhutan, east & northeast India and Nepal during 15 April to 31 May. Phase-II of the STORM Programme started from 2012 among Afghanistan, northwest India and Pakistan and will continue up to 2014 during 01 May to 15 June each year. Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Lahore and Punjab of Pakistan were affected by a sand storm of 05 June 2012. West Bengal, Bihar and Bangladesh experienced moderate/severe thunderstorm (60-100 km/hr) on 03 May 2012. These two cases of SAARC STORM Phase – I & II have been studied in this paper. Six hourly Final Reanalysis (FNL) data of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) have been used as input to WRF-ARW Model for the simulations. Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) observations (radial winds and reflectivity) of Bangladesh Meteorological Departments (BMD) are used for Bangladesh case of 03 May 2012 in order to update the initial and boundary conditions through three-dimensional variational assimilation (3DVAR) technique within Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) Model. The model results are also compared with the Kalpana-1 images and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted results. Due to insufficient upper air data, Pakistan case of 05 June 2012 have just been simulated by WRF-ARW Model. Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS) has been employed for visualization. Model results show some spatio-temporal shifts. 3DVAR Data Assimilation in WRF-ARW Model shows little improvement in forecasts. Keywords: SAARC STORM, WRF-ARW Model, 3DVAR Data assimilation, Doppler Weather Radar (DWR), radial winds, reflectivity, Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS). Study of the properties of thunderstorm events occurred in Bangladesh and adjoining Assam State of India using NWP Technique Md. Abdul Mannan1, Sujit Kumar Debsarma2 and Arjumand Habib3 SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), Dhaka, Bangladesh E-mail: email@example.com 1, 2, 3 ABSTRACT To identify the formation mechanism and to detect the characteristics associated with thunderstorm occurred over Bangladesh and Assam State of India on 30 April and 01 May of 2012, WRF model (version 3.2.1) is run with the resolution of 9 km using initial and boundary condition of NCEP FNL data. The simulation is conducted with the cumulus parameterization schemes of Kain-Fritsch (KF) with the combination of Kessler (KS), Lin et al. (LN), WRF Single-Moment 3 Class (WSM3) and WRF Single-Moment 5 Class (WSM5), WRF Single-Moment 6 Class (WSM6) microphysics schemes. The simulated parameters of Sea Level Pressure, Temperature, Relative Humidity, Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Vertical Velocity, Cloud Water Mixing Ratio, Rain Water Mixing Ratio, Wind Speed at different levels, Convective and Non-convective Rain, Reflectivity, Outgoing Long Wave Radiation, etc and derived parameters of Divergence and Vorticity are analyzed with the help of Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS) software. Analysis reveals the signature of wind discontinuity in association with the existence of convergence and positive vorticity is responsible for formation of thunderstorm however moisture supply, existence of convergence zone supported by a divergence zone and existence of positive vorticity zone supported by a divergence zone in the upper levels are the prime conditions for intensifying of thunderstorms over Bangladesh and adjoining Assam States of India. Analysis also demonstrates the analogous outcome of recorded information in some cases. Key words: Divergence, NCEP, Thunderstorm, Vorticity, WRF Model. Impact of Radar data on thunderstorm simulation using WRF-3DVAR Md. Mizanur Rahman, Mohan Kumar Das and Sujit Kumar Debsarma SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), Dhaka, Bangladesh E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org ABSTRACT Severe local storms, including tornadoes, devastating hail and wind gusts/squall frequently occur over the northwestern and southwestern parts of Bangladesh during the pre-monsoon season (March-May). Forecast of thunderstorms is one of the most difficult tasks in weather prediction, due to their rather small spatial and temporal extension and the inherent nonlinearity of their dynamics and physics. The variational data assimilation approach is one of the most useful techniques available to directly assimilate heterogeneous mesoscale observations in order to improve the estimate of the model’s initial state. In this study, sensitivity experiments are conducted with the WRF and WRF-3DVAR model to test the impact of convective parameterization schemes on simulating severe thunderstorms that occurred over Bangladesh on 11 May and 19 May in 2011 and validated the model results with observation. A statistical analysis based on root mean square error and correlation coefficient is performed for comparisons between the simulated and observed data with different convective schemes. Keywords: Thunderstorms; Data assimilation; statistical analysis Assimilation of DWR Reflectivity in WRF-3DVAR in Simulating Thunderstorms over Bangladesh Sk. Md. Abubakar Abdullah*, 1, 2, Mohan K. Das2, Sujit K. Debsarma2 1Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, Bangladesh 2SAARC Meteorological Research Centre, Dhaka, Bangladesh *Corresponding Author’s E-mail: email@example.com ABSTRACT Bangladesh, being topped in the world most vulnerable countries, is affected by natural calamities like thunderstorms, mainly, in the pre-monsoon season (March-May), very often, which are very challenging to predict. In the present study an attempt was made to study two such events, with large squalls accompanied by rainfall and gusty wind in many parts of Bangladesh and surroundings, on 21 and 23 May, 2011 with the help of WRF-ARW and 3DVAR data assimilation technique. Cumulus sensitivity of the WRF-ARW was also tested with Kain-Fritsch (KF) and Grell-Devenyi (GD) schemes. For the study, 1°X1° reanalysis data for initial and boundary condition were collected from NCEP. Different dynamics of both the events were studied and compared with the available observation from national meteorological offices of the SAARC countries and also with the TRMM rainfall. An idea of the impact of cumulus schemes and data assimilation in WRF-ARW were obtained though the present study. Key-words: data assimilation, WRF-ARW, thunderstorms, Bangladesh Final List of Foreign IPC Members/Resource Persons and Participants for Scientific Seminar in Islamabad, Pakistan during 05-06 September 2012 Sl. No Names 1 Prof. U.C. Mohanty IPC Member (Chairman PIC) 2 Dr. Madan Lall Shrestha IPC Member 3 Mr. S.H.M. Fakhruddin IPC Member 4 Mr. Kiran P. Siripurapu, Resource Person 5 Dr. P.P. Nageswara Rao, ISRO Team Leader 6 Dr. (Ms.) T.S. Shoba, IPC Member 7 Shri Ranga Rao, DWR Expert 8 Afghanistan 9 Ms. Mahnaz Khan, IPC Member 10 Mr. Tshencho Dorji IPC Member 11 Mr. B.P. Yadav, Scientist E, IPC Member 12 13 Dr. Zahid, IPC Member, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org Mr. Saraju Kumar Baidya, IPC Member 14 Mr. Rajendra Prasad Shrestha Seminar Participant 15 Mr. Sunil H. Kariyawasam IPC Member, E-mail: email@example.com Mr. Ata Hussain, Head, Synoptic Division, Email:firstname.lastname@example.org 16 17 18 Mr. Sujit Kumar Debsarma, IPC Member-Secretary, & Scientist, Theoretical Division Mr. Md. Abdul Mannan, Scientist, Synoptic Division Address Arrival in Islamabad Departure Head, Deptt. of Atmospheric Sciences IIT, New Delhi, India, Email: email@example.com Academician, Nepal Academy of Science & Technology, Kathmandu, Nepal, Email: firstname.lastname@example.org Team Leader – Hydrology, RIMES, Thailand, E-mail: email@example.com 02SEP 2012 BY EK-614 AT 01:25 AM 01 SEP 2012 by PK-0658 at 22:25 03 Sep 2012 by TG-349 at 2210 hrs 05 SEP 2012, BY EK-615 AT 03:10 AM 06 SEP 2012 by PK-0365 at 07:00 AM 05 SEP 2012 by TG-350 at 2320 hrs Deptt. of Atmospheric Sciences, IIT, New Delhi, India, Email: firstname.lastname@example.org Programme Director, ISRO GeosphereBiosphere Programme (IGBP) at ISRO HQs, Email: email@example.com Director (Tech. & Services), ISRO, Bangalore, India. E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org Deputy Director, Radar Development Area (RDA), at ISTRAC E-mail: email@example.com Afghanistan Met Authority (AMA), Kabul Airport, Email: firstname.lastname@example.org Bangladesh Meteorological Department, Agargaon, Dhaka-1207 E-mail: email@example.com Department of Hydro-Met Services, Thimpu, Bhutan Email: firstname.lastname@example.org India Meteorological Deptt. (IMD), Lodi Road, New Delhi, India, Email: email@example.com Director, Maldives Meteorological Service, Male, Maldives. E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org DDG, Department of Hydrology & Meteorology, Kathmandu, Nepal. E-mail: email@example.com Senior Div. Meteorologist, Department of Hydrology & Meteorology, Nepal. E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org Director General, Department of Meteorology, Colombo-7, Sri Lanka. E-mail: email@example.com, SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), E-4/C, Agargaon, Dhaka-1207, Bangladesh. 04 SEP 2012 by Emirates at 01:25 am Inability to attend 07 SEP 2012 by Emirates at 09:00 am - Ditto – E-mail:firstname.lastname@example.org - Ditto – E-mail: email@example.com Inability to attend x x 01 SEP 2012 by PIA at 2055 hrs 01 SEP 2012 BY PK-658, at 22:25 Inability to attend 07 SEP 2012 by PIA at 2200 hrs 08 SEP 2012 PK-649, at 07:00 AM 02 SEP 2012 BY QR-398 at 03:10 AM 01 SEP 2012 by PK-0658 at 22:25 04 Sep 2012 By PK-562 At 01:45 AM 01 SEP 2012 by PK-370 at 20 55 hrs 02 SEP 2012 (SUNDAY) BY EK-614 AT 01:25 AM 02 SEP 2012 BY EK-614 AT 01:25 AM 02 SEP 2012 (SUNDAY) 08 SEP 2012 BY QR-399 at 04:40 AM 06 SEP 2012 by PK-0365 at 07:00 AM 08 Sep 2012 By PK-649 At 07:00 AM 07 SEP 2012 by PK-301 at 1000 hours 07 SEP 2012 BY EK-613 AT 09:00 AM x 07 SEP 2012 BY EK-613 AT 09:00 AM 07 SEP 2012 BY EK-613 19 Mr. Md. Mizanur Rahman, Research Officer - Ditto – E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org 20 Mr. Sk. Md. Abubakar Abdullah Asstt. Research Officer - Ditto – E-mail: email@example.com BY EK-614 AT 01:25 AM 04 SEP 2012 (TUESDAY) BY EK-614 AT 01:25 AM 04 SEP 2012 (TUESDAY) BY EK-614 AT 01:25 AM AT 09:00 AM 07 SEP 2012 BY EK-613 AT 09:00 AM 07 SEP 2012 BY EK-613 AT 09:00 AM Inaugural Message by Ms. Arjumand Habib SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), Bangladesh Delivered by Mr. Ata Hussain Synoptic Division of SMRC Honourable Mr. ------------------------Secretary , Ministry of Defence, Government of Pakistan Mr. Arif Mahmood, Director General, Pakistan Meteorological Department Professor Uma Charan Mohanty, Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi, and Chairman of Project Implementation Committee of SAARC STORM Programme and IPC Member Madam (Dr.) T.S. Shoba, Director (Tech. & Services), Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), Bangalore, India and IPC Member. & all Honourable Members of IPC and Delegates from the SAARC Member States Ladies and Gentlemen, Assalam O Alaykum and Very Good Morning! I feel it very honoured to deliver this inaugural message of Director SMRC at the 5 th SAARC STORM International Programme Committee (IPC) Meeting in Islamabad and it gives me immense pleasure to welcome all the distinguished IPC Members and delegates from the SAARC Member States on this occasion. Earlier this meeting was scheduled to be held in Islamabad in April, 2012 just before the start of STORM Field Experiments in Afghanistan, Pakistan and NW India, during May -June 2012 as part of the Second Phase of SAARC STORM Field Experiments. However, the meeting was to be postponed due to some unforeseen circumstances. Now, I am very happy that the 5th IPC Meeting is taking place in Islamabad back-to-back with the SAARC Seminar on Results and Reviews of STORM Field Experiments. STORM is the acronym for “Severe Thunderstorm: Observations and Regional Modeling”. The STORM Programme which is the brain-child of the eminent Prof. Mohanty was originated in India in 2005 to improve understanding of the genesis, development and propagation of severe thunderstorms and development of meso-scale prediction system. As part of this Programme, the Pilot Field Experiments were conducted in the west Bengal and in the NE India during April - May in 2007 & 2008. In November 2008, the14th Governing Board Meeting of SMRC also approved that the STORM Project may also be carried out for the SAARC Region. Eventually, the SAARC Standing Committee, the Programme Committee, and the Council of Ministers endorsed the project in February, 2009. During the next month in March 2009, the International Programme Committee i.e. IPC of STORM Programme was constituted and its First Meeting was held in April 2009 at New Delhi. The Meeting recommended for renaming the project as SAARC STORM Programme. I feel it very proud that Prof. Mohanty, the mentor of the SAARC STORM Programme is also with us at this 5th IPC Meeting. Ladies & Gentlemen! SAARC STORM is a unique programme, may be the first of its kind which is being implemented by utilizing our own regional resources and available infrastructure without any support from the external resources. We should be very proud of SAARC STORM Programme because it is our own Project supported by all the Member countries. On this occasion, I am very pleased to inform you that as approved by the 17th Governing Board Meeting of SMRC (which held last year in 2011), SMRC Dhaka has recently signed an M o U with Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), Government of India in June 2012 as part of the SAARC STORM Programme. I am extremely grateful to the Indian Space Research Organization for their support and very glad that delegates from Indian Space Research Centre are also attending this meeting. Ladies & Gentlemen! The SAARC STORM Programme is a long-term Project of SAARC Meteorological Research Centre. It has three phases. In the First Phase, well-coordinated Field Experiments were started in 2009 in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and the northeastern parts of India and these are still continuing. In the Second Phase which started this year 2012, Field Experiments were also carried out in Afghanistan, Pakistan and northwestern parts of India during May-June and the Experiments will continue up to 2014. The Third Phase of SAARC STORM Programme is scheduled to start in 2013 when Field Experiments will be carried out in Maldives, Sri Lanka and peninsular south India and the experiments will continue up to 2015. Therefore, participation of IPC Members especially from Afghanistan, Maldives, Pakistan and Sri Lanka is very important in this 5th IPC Meeting in order to have discussion on selection of sites for special observations and augmentation of observing network system in Afghanistan and Pakistan and also on assessments and requirements of Met. Infrastructure in Afghanistan, Maldives, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. I am glad that most of the IPC Members are attending the meeting. Ladies & Gentlemen! SAARC has now eight brotherly countries as members which have many commonalities. It provides a common platform for the people of South Asia to work together in a spirit of friendship, trust and better understanding. It aims at promoting the welfare of the people of South Asia and to improve their quality of life through economic growth, social progress, scientific research and cultural development in the region. SAARC Meteorological Research Centre since its inception in January, 1995, has been supported by all the SAARC Member States and therefore SAARC Meteorological Research Centre is indebted to all the Member countries especially the Heads of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of SAARC Region for their continued support to SAARC Meteorological Research Centre and its programmes and activities. Since last year, in addition to SAARC STORM Programme, SMRC is also involved in another long-term programme which is SAARC Intergovernmental Monsoon Initiative. Therefore, I would like to urge the SAARC Member States and the Heads of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services to extend their full involvement, cooperation and support to the activities under this programme also because it is only through the Member countries support and collaborative efforts of NMHSs that SMRC can fulfill its objective and mandate. In the end, I would like to express my sincere thanks and gratitude to the Government of Pakistan and Pakistan Meteorological Department for hosting the 5th IPC Meeting and SARRC Seminar on “Results and Reviews of STORM Field Experiments” in Islamabad. I wish for the fruitful and successful outcomes of the 5th IPC Meeting and the Seminar. I envisage that the recommendations of the meetings will effectively contribute to the successful accomplishment of the SAARC STORM Programme in the years to come. With these few words, I would like to thank you once again and convey Director SMRC’s profound gratitude to you for attending this ceremony and the SAARC Meetings. Thank you and wish you all the best! SAARC CONCEPT PAPER Scientific Seminar on “Results and Review of SAARC STORM Field Experiments” During 05-06 September 2012 Jointly Organized by Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Islamabad, Pakistan & SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), Dhaka, Bangladesh Preamble: Thunderstorm or nor’wester (locally known as “Kal baishakhi” in West Bengal and Bangladesh) is one of the major disasters in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) region. Some of the nor’westers, being supported by deep layer of atmospheric conditional instability, sudden pressure fall by 25 hPa or more, convergence up to 700 hPa and Jet Stream (core wind ≥ 50 knots at 500 hPa), attain the intensity of a tornado when casualty rose from three to four figures. Severe thunderstorms have high impacts on lives and properties. Though a small area is affected by a single severe thunderstorm or a tornado but building structures are sometimes totally collapsed, tube-wells are up-rooted, many people and animals are killed or severely injured. Some people lose their limbs and become handicapped. Hence accurate forecast of severe thunderstorms is of prime importance. Since these thunderstorms are short lived mesoscale phenomena their forecast is very difficult. These thunderstorms occur at spatial scale ranging from a few kilometers to a couple of 100 kilometers and so it is desirable to establish a mesonet of AWS. Under the SAARC STORM Programme (Phase-I), Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) is contributing one Doppler Weather Radar (DWR), 50 AWS and 4 GPS Sounding Systems in Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal. Similarly, the mesonet of observatories need to be extended covering other parts of thunderstorm / dust storm prone area of SAARC region and integrate with the network. Based on the recommendations of 14th, 15th, 16th and 17th Governing Board (GB) Meeting of SMRC, four Pilot Field Experiments of the SAARC STORM Programme were conducted during 15 April to 31 May of 2009 to 2012 jointly in Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal collecting intensive observations on pre-monsoon thunderstorms (Nor’westers) in a coordinated way. Afghanistan, northwestern India and Pakistan conducted the First Pilot Field Experiment of the Second Phase of the SAARC STORM Programme during 01 May – 15 June 2012 in a well coordinated way to study dry convective systems – sand storms/ dust storms/ thunderstorms. Maldives, Peninsular India and Sri Lanka will conduct their First Pilot Field Experiment of the Third Phase of the SAARC STORM Programme in 2013 to study moist or maritime convective storms. Thus in 2013, all the SAARC Member States will take part in the SAARC STORM Programme jointly to study continental, dry, moist/maritime thunderstorms. Objectives: The objectives of Field Experiment of STORM Programme are to assemble vast amount of meteorological data consisting of surface, upper air, radar, satellite, soil moisture, and radiation on large scale and meso-scale environments evolving strategies for observational systems of large scale, synoptic scale and mesoscale environments, planetary boundary layer processes, convective dynamics and cloud microphysics for better understanding of atmospheric processes in different stages of convective development; to understand the cloud microphysical, radiative and dynamical processes; to develop cloud and radiation parameterization for the use in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Models; and to prepare a well designed coordinated plan for monitoring Nor’westers / severe thunderstorms/dust storms/sand storms over SAARC region during pre-monsoon season. In order to discuss the results of the Field Experiment and to review the progress of the SAARC STORM Programme a Scientific Seminar will be held in Islamabad, Pakistan during 05-06 September 2012. All SAARC Member States are requested to participate in the Seminar. Organizing the Scientific Seminar: SMRC is going to organize the Seminar jointly with the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Islamabad, Pakistan on ‘Results and Review of SAARC STORM Field Experiment-2012’. SMRC will also bear the expenses related to local hospitality and accommodation of the selected Participants. Action required: The Member States may kindly confirm their participation by nominating 2 (Two) Scientists, who are associated with the relevant field. Participants are requested to make 20-30 minute MS-Power Point Presentations on the basis of their research work by using SAARC STORM Field Experiment datasets. It is also requested to send the nominations along with abstracts through E-mail / Fax to the following address. Venue: Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Islamabad, Pakistan. Deadline for Nominations: Deadline for Submission of Abstract Address: 1. 20 August 2012 23 August 2012 Director SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), E-4/C, Agargaon, Sher-E-Bangla Nagar, Dhaka – 1207, Bangladesh. Phone : +880 2 8181728, 8181729, 8181730 (Office) FAX : +880 2 8181727 E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org, email@example.com 2. Mr. Jan Muhammad Khan Director Pakistan Meteorological Department HQs Office, Sector H - 8/2, Islamabad - 44000, PAKISTAN. Phone: +92-51-9250596, Fax: +92-51-9250368 Email: firstname.lastname@example.org International & Local Organizing Committee Coordinators 1. Mr. Jan Muhammad Khan, Director, Pakistan Meteorological Department, PMD Planning Directorate, HQs Office, Sector H - 8/2, Islamabad - 44000, Pakistan. 2. Mr. Sujit Kumar Debsarma, Scientist, Theoretical Division, SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), E-4/C, Agargaon, Dhaka-1207, Bangladesh. Seminar/Programme Committe 1. Mr. Jan Muhammad Khan, Director, Pakistan Meteorological Department, PMD Planning Directorate, HQs Office, Sector H - 8/2, Islamabad - 44000, Pakistan. 2. Mr. Sujit Kumar Debsarma, Scientist, Theoretical Division, SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), Dhaka, Bangladesh. 3. Secretariat 1. Reception Committe 1.