A Bare Bones History of the Middle East 1. How will these revelations affect the war effort? 2. Should these allegations have been made public? Why or why not? 3. Are these soldiers sociopaths or does war create monsters? 1800 BCE Judaism Founded Lineage goes from Abraham to Moses to David to Solomon, who built his temple in modern-day Jerusalem. Jews flourished in the area of modern day Israel until about 100 A.D. when they were expelled by the Romans. Romans were sick of the uprisings, period called the Diaspora. 0-33 ad Jesus founded Christianity. Jesus is executed in Jerusalem by the Romans with support from Jewish elders. The Christians were heavy proselytizers and Christianity spread rapidly throughout the Middle East and Europe, until 375 A.D. when it became the official religion of the Roman Empire, and thus the Western World. During the Middle Ages, many Christians blamed Jews for the death of Jesus and discriminated (to say the least) against them. 600 a.d. Mohammed founds Islam in Mecca, Saudi Arabia (current day) and Medina, Saudi Arabia. He has a vision that he ascends to heaven from the rock on top of Solomon's temple. So Mecca, Medina and Jerusalem are the holiest sites in Islam, setting up conflict with Jews and Christian over Jerusalem and in current day Israel. Ramadan is the month in which believers believe that Mohammed received his revelations from God. The revelations are written into the KORAN, the Islamic holy book. Al Aqsa Al Aqsa Is Located on the Temple Mount (Solomon’s Temple, holy to Jews) and is the place believer’s believe Mohammed ascended to heaven, on his horse Barak. At Al Aqsa, circa 1000 a.d., Christian crusaders massacred Muslim defenders, making it a rallying point for Muslims in their fight against “infidels.” Jerusalem today Is the capital of Israel and all parts are controlled by Israel. Palestinians want East Jerusalem to be their capital, but that’s were the wailing wall is, the Western wall of the temple. Captured by Jordan in 1948 War, and taken by Israel in 1967, originally left as international city by Brits. Israelis are buying and building in that those religious areas. Islam Spreads Rapidly through the next few hundred years. Islam becomes the dominate religion in the Middle East, many parts of Africa, including sub-Saharan, Central and Southern Asia. Much of the conquest was done at the point of a sword, convert or die. Muslim World Schism in Islam Shortly after Mohammed’s death in about 630, Islam divides in two between the followers of Mohammed’s cousin, married to his daughter, Ali and…. the followers of his main disciples, establishing the caliphates, government protecting Islam. Followers of Ali are called Shiites. Followers of the caliphates are Sunnis Shiite Sunni split is intense and exists today Sunniism is the dominated group in Islam covering some 85% of all Muslims. Shiites are a smaller, but very important group. Iran is the almost all Shiite, as is southeastern Iraq, and Southern Lebanon, with a sprinkling in Yemen (the southern part of the Saudi peninsula.) Main Issue Has to do with leadership and religious belief. The difference is enough that many Sunnis believe Shiites to be infidels because they worship saints. Shiites worship holy sites, dead Ayatollahs and Saints. Shiites believe in an occulted (hidden) Imam who is like a messiah whose suppose to come back on Judgment Day. In Sunni Islam, because its leadership are layman, it is governments responsibility to ensure safety for Islam: Security is more important than individual freedom! Government is to protect Islam. In Shiite Islam separation of Mosque and Government would be ridiculous, if your leader is wired to the Prophet, why would you have a separate government? Shiite leaders are called Ayatollahs and are thought to be direct blood relatives of Mohammed and therefore infallible. You find Ayatollahs in Shiite areas. Mullahs are learned men, or men who study the Koran, they are lay people. Sunniism does not have a hierarchy of their religion. Assura commemorates Hussein, Ali’s son’s death at the hand of the caliphates in Karbala, Iraq. Iraq Has a majority poor Shiite population on border with Iran. The most powerful groups in that region have been Sunni, Saddam was a Sunni. Iraq also incorporates a large Kurdish (non Arab) Sunni population. Iraq The “insurgency” against the U.S. was mainly led by Sunni Muslims who were afraid that the Shiites would become a majority in a democratic Iraq, which it did. (Malakki the Prime Minister is a Shiite). If Iraq becomes a Shiite dominated state, Iran probably will become its natural ally, threatening Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, Sunni states. Will religion and ethnicity win, or will democratic ideals? Wahhabism In the 18th century, a very conservative Sunni sect rose to power in current Saudi Arabia and has been dominate there ever since. This explains the conservatism of the Saudi nation. Osama Bin Laden and his Saudi followers are Wahhabis. Appropriate Saudi attire for women Ottoman Empire Ottoman Turks controlled the Middle East from 1300 to 1917 19th and early 20th Century Britain took over a major portion of the Middle East from the declining Ottoman Empire. The Capitulations. 20th c. Iran By the 1920s Britain dominated the oil production of Iran, the only place where oil had been discovered by Brits with British capital. (Europe has no oil) Iranian Oil was essential for the Western Industrial Revolution once the internal combustion engine was dominate. After World War II Britain was in decline Saudi Arabia had found oil and was still dominated by Western oil companies. Many colonies of the Western Europeans and U.S. began demanding independence. Israel Israel was formed (1949) out the British possession in current day Israel. (close U.N. vote gave it legality) Secular Socialist Jews called Zionists had begun to buy land in the area of Present-day Israel at the beginning of the 20th century in an attempt to establish a safe, socialist state there. Other places had been considered, including Uganda and Argentina. Israel Land is the Palestinian Mandate (Israel) was available for sale because much of it was owned by absentee Ottoman landowners. Palestine has never, in modern times, been controlled by the Palestinian Arabs who live there: Ottoman Turks, British Mandate, Zionists. Israeli Green line 1949 I think the British thought the formation of Israel might be doable, because of the Palestinian population was majority poor farmers. The underestimated the reaction of the rest of the Arab world. Since then, the Israel/Palestinian issue has been a cause celeb in the Islamic world. 1952 Iran kicked out the monarch who was seen as a western puppet and elected a guy named Mossadeq as Prime Minister. Mossadeq nationalized the BP oil fields. The U.S. and Britain orchestrated a coup there to install Shah Reza Pahlavi, a puppet of the U.S., who was particularly brutal, effectively and ironically ending democracy in Iran. 1967 Israel fought another war with Arabs, and took the lands on the west bank of the Jordan river from Jordan, this area was all Arab and is now referred to as the West Bank. Israel still controls the majority population with martial law. Israel has slowly but surely built all Jewish developments throughout the West Bank, making the creation of an Arab/Palestinian/Sunni Muslim state there next to impossible to build. West Bank Taken by Israel in 67 Palestinian/Israel issues Settlements: Israel continues to build settlements on the West Bank, Palestinians believe that to be future homeland. Right of Return: Palestinians wish the right to reclaim lands owned/occupied by them before 1948: non starter for Israel. Jerusalem: Palestinians want E. Jerusalem for their capital. Israel’s security: more radical Palestinians, Hamas, do not believe Israel has right to exist and therefore no negotiations. Freeze expired Sunday, Israeli settlers get busy. Iran makes mischief Iran has funded Hezbollah, the party of God, on Israel’s northern border, a Shitte enclave in Lebanon. Israel has invaded Lebanon twice. Currently Hezbollah as thousands of rockets supplied by Iran, ready to launch. Iran supplies Sunni Hamas in Gaza (on Egyptian border) with missiles that they used on civilian Israel populations. Israel invade two years ago, atrocities on both sides. Areas of violence Lebanon Is a very complicated place 1973 Arabs oil producers embargo the U.S. and Western Europe in protest of another Arab Israel War. 1979: All Hell Breaks Loose Iranian Revolution occurs as Shah is deposed and American hostages are taken. The Soviet Union fears the spreading the revolution to it’s ‘stans and invades Afghanistan to prevent the spread. With encouragement of U.S., Iraq invades Iran (Sunni Saddam all for slapping down Shiite Iran). 1983 U.S. sends marines to Beirut in an attempt to protect Americans amid the civil war. Shiite extremist blow up barracks killing nearly 300 Americans. We pull out. 1988 Soviet Red Army leaves Afghanistan with tail between legs. U.S. has helped this along by supplying Stinger missiles to the Mujahedeen, including a young Jihadist named Osama Bin Laden. Shortly there after, the Soviet Union dissolves, leaving the U.S. as sole superpower. Iraq-Iran War ends Both sides end up exactly where they started Million or more died. Saddam used war as an excuse to use chemical weapons supplied by us on the Kurds of Iraq, as well as the Iranian army. Iraq was broke. 1989 After the U.S. implies that they won’t intervene, Saddam invades Kuwait, oil rich Princedom on its southern border, next to Saudi Arabia. George H.W. Bush sends in the troops in Desert Storm and kicks the Iraqi’s out. A little known “holy warrior,” just back form Jihad against the Soviets in Afghanistan, Osama Bin Laden had gone to the Saudi Kings and offers to put the Iraqi’s out, but they opt to bring in the U.S. instead. He’s really mad that the infidels are in the holy land. Early 90s Osama moves to Sudan, and establishes the Al Qaeda network throughout the world in more radical mosques, to foment global jihad. The U.S., under H.W. Bush, not wishing to create a vacuum between Iran and Saudi Arabia that Iran could exploit, leaves Saddam in power. Saddam continues assaults against Shiites and Kurds, who he sees as allies of Iran and the U.S. 1991 After the fall of Soviet backed Yugoslavia, Serbian Christians attempt the genocidal extermination of Bosnian Muslims in the Balkans. Clinton provides bombing raids (later rather than sooner) that ends the genocide. Clinton did not end the Rwandan genocide however. In the 90s The Russians also fought a brutal war the Chechnyan Muslim separatists. The combination of the Serbian attacks on Bosnia, Israel-Palestinian disputes, Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and subsequent U.S. invasion, made it seem to many Muslims that the imperialists were at it again. 1993 Now President Clinton puts pressure on Saudis to expel Bin Laden (King is afraid of them too), Jihad is declared against U.S. Bin Laden becomes a money man, a clearinghouse for Jihadists worldwide. 1st World Trade Center bombing Bin Laden is forced out of Sudan after pressure is put on Sudanese leader. Bin Laden moves to Afghanistan. In retaliation, Bin Laden and his lieutenants hatch a plot presented by Ramsey Yousef to blow up the World Trade Center. Use operatives from one of their networks Mosques in Brooklyn, headed by the blind mullah. The attempt fails, although six are killed and 1000 injured.. Rahman: the Blind Cleric 1998 After the Soviet defeat, a group of Pashtun fighters from the mountains between Afghanistan and Pakistan called the Taliban had taken power in Afghanistan in the early 90s late 80s.. The Taliban are very conservative Muslims and their version of Islam blends well with the Wahabbism of Bin Laden. Made Sharia the law of the land, with amputations and beheadings. Ethnic map Afhanistan Swat ski resort Ethnic Map Pakistan 1998 Bin Laden orders the Kenyan and Tanzania embassies bombed in retaliation. Clinton orders cruise missiles to hit Al Qaeda sites in Afghanistan and Sudan, misses Bin Laden. Seems to always get away. 2000 Bin Laden orders the U.S.S. Cole blown up in Aden, Yemen, killed 17 sailors and almost sank it. Repeated threats are made to blow up the World Trade Center and other U.S. sites. George W. Bush team ignores them as idol threats and intelligence community drops the ball, not talking with each other. 2001 Bin Laden succeeds in taking out the World Trade Center. The U.S. invades Afghanistan, deposing Taliban, Bin Laden gets away, AGAIN. 2003 Even without evidence, Bush and his team invade Iraq looking for WMD. The major theory behind the invasion was that if they established a working democratic government in Iraq, then we’d have a beachhead in the Middle East and that democracy would spread from there. Saddam probably wanted the world to believe that he did have WMD to deter Iran from attacking. 2003 Sunni’s and Shiite both rose up separately in opposition to U.S. occupation. Sunnis were afraid that if a democracy was established then the Shiites would take over and there would be retribution. Shiite militias were controlled by Iran and probably wanted to hurt the U.S. It seems the Shiites backed off, waiting to take over if U.S. imposes a democracy: watch for Iran to pull the strings. 2003-10 The Kurds were just glad to be rid of Saddam. They are hoping to get an independent region, free of Arab control. There are still skirmishes between Kurds and Sunni Arabs over oil in the North. Look for Kurds and Shiites to form a shaky alliance against the Sunnis. The Sunni insurgents and Al Qaeda Iraq continue to blow up stuff and people hoping to dissolve any hopes at peace. The U.S. sends in a surge of troops and buys of Sunni tribal leaders, and they turn on Al Qaeda, violence decreases. We with draw fight troops and have left 50,000 troops to protect civilians and train Iraqis. 2010 Iran continues to expand influence throughout the Middle East: They are developing Nukes. They control Shiite militias in Iraq. They supply missiles to, and the Hezbollah on the Northern border with Israel in Lebanon. They supply missiles to and money to Hamas the controlling Palestinian faction in Gaza and the biggest Palestinian trouble Maker to Peace with Israel 2010 Israel is now controlled by conservative Zionist (Jews who believe Israel is their God given right). Israel has not been shown to have the political will to end the developments or settlements on the West Bank. If they cannot do that, there will be no peace. If they current government attempts to even stop new settlements, the government will fall. 2010: The Big Question Can Israel remain a Theocracy and a Democracy with an exploding Palestinian population, without a permanent military occupancy of the West Bank? Answer: No It will have to be one of the other. 2010: Big Questions Does the U.S. have the political will to occupy Afghanistan forever? If we leave, will the Taliban come back? Can the Taliban destabilize Pakistan and take over there? Can the Taliban get hold of nukes and give them to Al Qaeda? If Pakistan becomes a theocracy will India blow them off the map? 2010: Big Questions When will Iran get nukes? Would Iran nuke Israel even if it meant MAD? How long will Israel wait for U.S. diplomatic pressures to work before they bomb Iran? What will Iran do if bombed by Israel? Attack Saudi Arabia? Attack Israel with Hezbollah and Hamas? 2010: Big Question Are we too poor now to use our military against anybody else? Did we blow all our treasure on Iraq and Afghanistan and leave nothing for the future? Mullah Omar: head of Taliban Hamid Karzai Prime Minister of Afghanistan Mullah Omar: head of Taliban Famous Shiites Middle East Players Israel/Palestinian Leaders U.S Policy Leaders Varying policies on how to continue in Afghanistan Keep large numbers of forces to secure the country (surge), put down insurgency, allow for democracy to develop and train Afghan military, keep Taliban and Al Qaeda on run with excursions into Pakistan and alliance with Pakistani military. Supported by military leaders, Gen. Petraeus plan, little Iraq. Secure population centers, leave the hinterlands. Build relationships with tribal elders until Afghan non Pastuns can defend the “country”. More cost effective, still requires large military presence. Obama, for now. Defend Kabul, focus on Al Qaeda, pull out most of military. use “Dalton Fury” types and drones to attack Al Qaeda and Taliban, if necessary. many fewer forces and money;. Leave Afghanistan to Afghans. Biden advocated all along.