Our Future Information Sheet 5:
The Referendum on Independence
Introduction
On 18 September 2014, people from across Scotland will go to the polls to decide whether
Scotland should become an independent country. This marks a historical moment, and
could potentially lead to the break-up of the United Kingdom which has existed since the
English and Scottish Parliaments passed the Acts of Union in 1707.
Referendums have been held in Scotland previously but this is the first time a referendum
has been held specifically on independence. Previous referendums concerned the
devolution of powers to Scotland from Westminster. The first of these was held in 1977
and was unsuccessful, while the second was held in 1997. This time it was successful, and
led to the setting up of the Scottish Parliament via the Scotland Act 1998 (an Act of the UK
Parliament). With it, control of most areas of domestic policy was handed from London to
Edinburgh. Devolved matters include: agriculture, forestry and fisheries; education and
training; environment; health and social services; housing; law and order (including the
licensing of air weapons); local government; sport and the arts; tourism and economic
development; and transport (including drink-driving and speed limits). Scotland also has
limited powers to vary income tax, though these powers have never been used. A new
legislative framework for Scottish public finance, the Scotland Act 2012, will introduce
further powers, allowing the Scottish Parliament to set a Scottish rate of income tax.
Reserved matters, those which remain under the control of the UK Government, include:
benefits and social security; immigration; defence; foreign policy; employment;
broadcasting; trade and industry; nuclear energy, oil, coal, gas and electricity; consumer
rights; data protection; and the Constitution.
In this information sheet, we (i) explore who is entitled to vote in this referendum;
(ii) provide evidence from recent opinion polls to discuss possible outcomes of the
referendum; and finally (iii) explore some possible changes which may occur in higher
education in the future, irrespective of the outcome of the referendum.
Extending the franchise
Whether you are entitled to vote in the referendum is based on where you live rather than
your country of origin; all British and qualifying Commonwealth citizens resident in
Scotland will be entitled to register to vote, as will all citizens of the Republic of Ireland and
other European countries resident in Scotland. This means for example, that English
people living in Scotland will be able to vote, but Scots living in England will not. The BBC
has noted that 800,000 Scots who live in other parts of the UK will not be entitled to vote,
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yet 400,000 people from elsewhere in Britain who live in Scotland will be able to vote (BBC
news http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-13326310, 26 November, 2013). Men and
women serving in the armed forces but registered to vote in Scotland will also be eligible.
However, in Scotland, as in the UK, prisoners are not entitled to vote, despite criticism
from the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg. Tony Kelly, writing in the
Guardian, (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/18/scotlandreferendum-prisoners-excluded, 18 November, 2013) argues that the referendum cannot
be truly democratic if prisoners remain excluded from the franchise.
One important change in this referendum is lowering the age of eligibility as young people
aged over 16 on 18 September 2014 will be eligible to vote. This historic reduction in the
voting age from 18 has been introduced as a one-off and will not apply to parliamentary
elections. In lowering the voting age, Scotland has gone against the grain – across the
world, the common voting age is 18. Scotland joins a small number of countries which
allow 16 and 17 year olds to vote, including Austria, Cuba, Nicaragua, Brazil, Ecuador,
Argentina, Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man. We have to think about whether lowering
the voting age could set a precedent for 16 and 17 year olds to vote in future elections.
In a BBC news report we can see alternative political views on the lowering of the voting
age for the referendum. Nicola Sturgeon (the Deputy Leader of the SNP which pushed to
extend the franchise) said:
No-one has a bigger stake in the future of our country than today's young people
and it is only right that they are able to have a say in the most important vote to be
held in Scotland for three centuries. In next year's referendum, Scotland's 16 and
17-year-olds will be given the opportunity to shape their country's path by choosing
what type of country they want Scotland to be. (Quoted by the BBC on 12 March,
2013)
In contrast, Annabel Goldie (the former Scottish Conservative leader) suggested young
people would not have adequate life experience to make the decision. She explained:
The Scottish Conservatives are not hostile to debate on the different age limits for
different activities, but are not supportive of singling out the independence
referendum for a trial extension of franchise to 16 and 17-year-olds. (BBC news, 12
March, 2013, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-21741448)
Perspectives of young people who participated in the film
When making the film, we asked young people how they felt about having the vote, and
we encountered a real mix of opinion, ranging from those who were delighted that the
voting age had been lowered and felt that all future votes should be held this way, to those
who felt that 16 year olds were too immature to be able to make the decision. This was
illustrated in a discussion between two interviewees in Fife:
Jonathan: I think it’s a good thing because at the age of 16 you could get married,
you could choose your life partner and you could also have a full time job. So you
could contribute to the economy. So if you could do both those things you should be
able to decide the future of your nation and well for the rest of your life.
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Harris: I disagree. I think there’s a lot of people that aren’t mature enough and will
waste their vote. And that’s what I believe; I don’t think people at 16 are mature
enough to make that vote.
We also spoke to some young people who questioned the reasons behind the lowering of
the voting age.
I like it too but I’m quite uncertain as well. I know that politics can sometimes be not
always what it seems. So I’m not really sure if it’s that they want us to get involved
or if it’s that [...] some people are really desperate to get the votes so they’re willing
to drop the age so they’ll just have more people to support it. (Catriona, Western
Isles)
We also found a range of opinions when we asked young people if they had made up their
mind yet about how they were going to vote. Quite a number of young people we spoke to
said that they had yet to decide, either because they felt there was not enough
information available for young people to make an informed decision or because it wasn’t
something which interested them very much. Some interviewees also pleaded for honesty
from both campaigns. Tommy, from Fife said:
I don’t think there’s enough information out there. I think the two campaigns are
just fighting each other and fear mongering. And I wish they’d just tell us what
would happen. Or at least discuss it a bit more in public. (Tommy, Fife)
Two young women from Edinburgh raised concerns about the information available to
young people:
Rona: Yeah, it’s really hard to find because you never know what information you
can really trust because it is just so easy to pick and choose the statistics and things
like that.
Caitlin: And twist the information.
Other interviewees said they had already made up their mind to vote yes or no. Common
reasons for voting no included feeling satisfied with the status quo – ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t
fix it’, they said. Some indicated that there were too many unknowns and it was too much
of a risk to take to vote for independence, while others emphasised the financial
implications of going independent.
Financially I think we’re a lot better off now than we would be if we were
independent. (Rebecca, West Lothian)
In contrast, some of those who indicated they were going to vote yes pointed to Scotland’s
oil as an example of a source of wealth which would be available to enhance the lives of
Scottish people under independence. ‘Yes’ voters pointed to positive aspects of Scottish
society which could be further developed in the future such as the lack of tuition fees and
the desire to remove nuclear weapons from Scotland. They emphasised the importance of
self-determination, that is, the belief that decisions about Scotland are best made by the
people of Scotland.
I’m voting yes. You know, the decisions about Scotland are best placed by the people
that live here because they care most about Scotland. (Joe, Edinburgh)
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Evidence from recent surveys on social attitudes regarding the
referendum
A range of surveys have been conducted in the last year exploring people’s attitudes to the
referendum and how they intend to vote in September 2014. A team of researchers at the
Universities of Edinburgh and Strathclyde and ScotCen Social Research conducted a survey
of Scottish 14 to 17 year olds. While previous surveys have explored the attitudes of
‘young’ voters (18 to 30 year olds), this is the first representative survey to focus on young
people aged 14 to 17 – those young people who will be voting next year. In total, 1018
interviews were conducted with young people, and in some cases with their parents too, in
April and May 2013.
This survey found that a majority of 14 to 17 year olds (60.3%) intended to vote no, while
similar proportions said they would either vote yes (20.9%) or were undecided (18.8%) as
outlined in Table 5.1. This is in contrast to some reports in the media which had suggested
that young people were more likely to vote yes. In actual fact, the survey found little
difference between the voting intentions of those aged 14 to 17 and those of adults.
Table 5.1:
“Should Scotland be an independent country?”
Yes
20.9%
No
60.3%
Undecided
18.8%
Total (100%)
1018 respondents
Source:
Eichorn et al., 2013.
http://www.aqmen.ac.uk/sites/default/files/Results_Report_Young_Persons_Survey_May201
3_0.pdf
The report on the survey findings breaks down the results further to show how things
might look if the responses of those who said they are currently ‘Undecided’ are left out.
As shown in Table 5.2, in this scenario, the yes vote increases to 25.8% versus a no vote of
74.2%.
Table 5.2:
“Should Scotland be an independent country?” (excluding “Undecided” votes)
Yes
25.8%
No
74.2%
Total (100%)
827 respondents
Source:
Eichorn et al., 2013.
http://www.aqmen.ac.uk/sites/default/files/Results_Report_Young_Persons_Survey_May201
3_0.pdf
The survey also asked young people whether they needed more information to make their
decision. More than two thirds said ‘I would like more information before I finally decide’
(67.2%), while 32.8% said ‘I have enough information to make a decision’, which is shown
in Table 5.3 below.
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Table 5.3:
Need for information by voting intention
Yes
No
Undecided
I have enough information to make my decision
32.4%
39.4%
12.0%
I’d like more information before I finally decide
67.6%
60.6%
88%
213
614
191
Total (100%)
Source:
Eichorn et al., 2013
http://www.aqmen.ac.uk/sites/default/files/Results_Report_Young_Persons_Survey_May201
3_0.pdf
With regard to surveys of the wider adult population, recent polls have shown similar
results to the survey of 14 to 17 year olds. Professor John Curtice, from the University of
Strathclyde, is an expert in analysing voting patterns. He has written a blog providing a
quick guide to opinion polls (The Poll Position, 25 November, 2013,
http://www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk/blog/poll-position-%E2%80%93-quick-guide), in
which he explains that while the various opinion poll companies agree that the yes vote is
behind, there is some variation in terms of their findings.
Making sense of the independence debate
The Scottish Government recently published its independence White Paper ‘Scotland’s
Future: Your Guide to an Independent Scotland’ (2013). This sets out the Scottish
Government’s vision of how an independent Scotland might look. It should be noted,
however, that an independent Scotland would not necessarily be run by an SNP
government, and that there are also a range of political parties and organisations which
support the Yes campaign (an alliance of the Scottish National Party, the Scottish Green
Party, the Scottish Socialist Party and other groups and individuals) which may have
alternative visions of what an independent Scotland would look like. Young people may
wish to explore these as well when making their decisions.
The White Paper can now be read alongside the Better Together campaign’s document
500 Questions, as well as numerous other documents relating to key issues. The Better
Together campaign is made up of Scottish Labour, the Scottish Conservative Party and the
Scottish Liberal Democrats. The Scotland Office has also published a range of documents
on the possible implications of independence. The Secretary of State for Scotland, Alistair
Carmichael, has published a response to the White Paper which can be read here
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/scottish-secretary-comments-on-independencewhite-paper.
In the run up to the referendum in September 2014, young people could well find that
they are awash with information, and that what they need is help in navigating through
this to find answers to those questions which are most relevant to them. It is clear from
the information discussed in this summary that there is still a long way to go before the
people of Scotland go to the ballot box and much could still change in terms of the opinion
polls. As Louise Cameron, Vice Chair of the Scottish Youth Parliament, says in the film,
young people should take advantage of as much information as they possibly can in
making their decision. It is important to note that those who will be aged 16 and over in
September 2013 may not be automatically registered to vote. Any young person wishing to
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ensure they are registered to vote in the referendum should complete the Young Voter’s
registration form which can be found here: http://www.aboutmyvote.co.uk/pdf/Scotlandyoung-person-registration-form-v3.pdf
The future of higher education
If we return to the key theme of our film, we should ask ourselves what higher education
in Scotland might look like in the future irrespective of the outcome of the referendum. In
the White Paper, the Scottish Government states that in an independent Scotland (in
which the SNP is in government), ‘access to higher education will be based on ability, not
wealth’, with free tuition for Scottish students remaining in place. However, this is clearly
contingent on future political and economic priorities, and a future Scottish Government
might choose to spend more on other areas of the education system (e.g. pre-school) and
less on higher education. Irrespective of the outcome of the referendum, there will be
elections for a new Scottish Parliament in 2016.
The five areas covered in this resource pack have highlighted just some of the issues young
people may wish to consider when thinking about how to vote in the referendum. Of
course, there are many other issues such as the economy, defence and welfare which will
also form part of people’s decisions. However, the future of higher education is something
which is clearly important to young people as well as to Scotland as a whole. How higher
education is funded, who gains access to university, and where people study are all
questions which will continue to be debated in the run up to the referendum, and beyond.
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References
BBC news website (2013) Q&A: Scottish independence referendum, 26 November, 2013.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-13326310,
BBC news website (2013) Scottish independence: Bill to lower voting age lodged. 12 March,
2013. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-21741448
Better Together (2013) 500 Questions.
http://b.3cdn.net/better/38a382b210f856a0e2_5zm6b1yew.pdf
Curtice, John (2013) The Poll Position – a quick guide. Blog on the Future of the UK and
Scotland website, 25 November, 2013.
http://www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk/blog/poll-position-%E2%80%93-quick-guide
Eichorn, Jan; Paterson, Lindsay; MacInnes, John; & Rosie, Michael (2013) Briefing: Results
from a survey on 14-17 year old persons living in Scotland on the Scottish
independence referendum. AQMeN.
http://www.aqmen.ac.uk/sites/default/files/Results_Report_Young_Persons_Survey
_May2013_0.pdf
Kelly, Tony (2013) ‘Scotland's referendum is not democratic if prisoners are excluded’, The
Guardian, 18 November, 2013,
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/18/scotland-referendumprisoners-excluded
Scottish Government (2013) Scotland’s Future: Your Guide to an Independent Scotland. The
Scottish Government, November 2013.
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/11/9348/0
Scotland Office (2013) Scottish Secretary comments on independence white paper, 26
November, 2013. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/scottish-secretarycomments-on-independence-white-paper
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Useful resources
The following websites may be useful resources for covering this topic:

The electoral reform society http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/scotland/

Votes at 16 website http://www.votesat16.org/about/

The Scottish Youth Parliament http://www.syp.org.uk/

NUS Scotland http://www.nus.org.uk/en/nus-scotland/

Yes Scotland http://www.yesscotland.net/

Better Together http://bettertogether.net/

The Scottish Common Weal Project http://scottishcommonweal.org/what-is-thecommon-weal-project/

The Scotland Office https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/scotland-office

What Scotland Thinks. http://whatscotlandthinks.org/ This website provides data
from the Scottish Social Attitudes Surveys conducted by ScotCen Social Research. The
survey data is available for public use, and allows people to conduct their own
research and analysis.

Five million questions is an impartial knowledge exchange programme run by the
University of Dundee that aims to engage the wider public in a series of questions
related to the referendum. http://fivemillionquestions.org/

ESRC Social Science for Schools website which includes resources on the future of the
UK and Scotland. http://www.socialscienceforschools.org.uk/resources/UK-andScotland/resources.aspx

ESRC Future of the UK and Scotland research programme
http://www.socialscienceforschools.org.uk/resources/UK-and-Scotland/index.aspx

ESRC Future of the UK and Scotland research programme - Scotland: A question of
independence. A timeline of the key events. http://www.esrc.ac.uk/research/majorinvestments/future-of-uk-and-scotland/timeline.aspx
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The referendum on independence
Suggested classroom activities
Activity 1: Group discussion Option 1: who should have the vote?
In small groups, discuss the following questions:
 Why do you think the voting age was lowered?
 Is it right that the voting age has been lowered to 16 for the referendum?
 Should 16 and 17 year olds be allowed to vote in all future elections?
 Should prisoners be allowed to vote?
 Some people were keen to have a third option on the ballot paper – that of further
devolution powers for Scotland or ‘devo max’. Do you think we should have been
given the chance to vote for this?
Look back to the opinions of some of the young people interviewed in this research. Who
do you agree with?
Activity 2: Group discussion Option 2: The future of Scottish higher
education
In small groups, discuss the following questions:
 Irrespective of the referendum result, how different do you think higher education will
be in the future?
o What kind of higher education system would you like to see?
o Will we still be going to university in the same places? Might there be more local
universities, more virtual learning perhaps?
o What changes would you like to see in terms of how we learn?
o What impact might technology have in universities?
o Will more or less people go to university in the future? Is this a good thing?
o In ten years’ time, do you think we will still have free tuition in Scotland? Why?
Why not?
You may want to draw on the four scenarios outlined by the Goodison group which are
available at:
http://www.scotlandfutureforum.org/assets/library/files/application/GGiS_SFF_By_2025_
-_Scenarios_for_the_future_Feb_2013.pdf
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Activity 3: Research
Option 1 (interview research): Conduct research with your fellow pupils to explore their
views on independence. Try to think of ways to ask people questions which let you find out
the reasons WHY people are planning to vote yes or no. If they are undecided what further
information do they need to make their decisions? Where resources are available, you may
wish to use digital cameras or video cameras to find creative ways to capture people’s
views and feed it back to the rest of the class.
Option 2 (survey research): If you are interested in analysing statistics and conducting
surveys you might wish to work with the teaching materials produced by Dr Jan Eichorn
and colleagues from AQMeN at the University of Edinburgh. These resources offer a range
of different activities for young people who wish to explore the survey of 14 to 17 year
olds further and are available from the AQMeN website (see
https://www.aqmen.ac.uk/Resources/IndyRef/TeachingMaterials for further details).
Activity 4: Classroom debate
Hold a classroom debate to address the referendum question: ‘Should Scotland be an
independent country?’ You might wish to adopt the position of a specific political party or
politician to argue your point of view on this.
Project website: http://bit.ly/1aceEel
Follow us on Twitter @Indy_Scot_HE
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