Ben Luce, PhD. physicist, sustainable energy researcher and chair of the Sustainability
Studies program at Lyndon State College in Vermont, spoke in Shelburne Falls on
February 11 th
on “The Science of Industrial Wind in Massachusetts and the Eastern
United States. Dr.Luce actively supported industrial wind power development in New
Mexico, where he served as the Co-chair and then the Director of the New Mexico
Coalition for Clean Affordable Energy. In that role, he advocated successfully for the
New Mexico Renewable Portfolio Standard, and specifically advocated for wind from about 1998-2006.
But he cautioned that because of the relatively small amount of commercially viable wind resource in New England, combined with potential negative impacts and the high cost that large-scale wind development in New England may not a promising option for our future energy needs in this region.
Dr. Luce explained that, according to Department of Energy data, on-shore wind is capable of providing only 5% of our electricity use in Massachusetts. To develop even that potential, there would need to be 333 three Megawatt turbines. At 5 turbines per mile that means developing 70 miles of mountain ridge, not counting access roads. And given the average of 10 turbines per project, that would mean roughly 33 of our mountain systems would have to be developed.
He asked, “Is it worth developing 33 mountain systems in MA to provide just 5% of MA electricity?” He pointed to a state-funded survey in Vermont about what made Vermont a special place to visit. The answer was, in three words, “Unspoiled, Beautiful,
Mountains”, and posed the question of what would be the impact to the economy if developing wind in Vermont and other scenic regions of the Northeast.
He also discussed the issue of noise. According to the peer-reviewed scientific literature, he stated that the noise generated by wind turbines is rather unusual, containing high levels of very low-frequency sound (infrasound). Research on hearing also shows that low-frequency noise, including “infrasonic” noise, from wind turbines, can affect the inner ear, and may be seriously affecting the health of people in the near vicinity of turbines.
He next pointed out that Gordon van Welie, president and CEO of NE ISO (which runs the Northeast Grid) stated that “a conservative goal for 5,500 megawatts of wind power and 3,000 megawatts of hydro power through 2030 would carry transmission costs of between $7 billion and $12 billion.” (from an August, 2006 AP article), and that 4000+ miles of new transmission lines would be needed. Luce stated that costs in the range would greatly increase the actual cost of wind power.
Yet, despite the impacts, he then posed the question that even with these resource, cost, and impact considerations factored in, would we still be “doing our part” to encourage the development of a significant renewable energy source? Would the sacrifice still be worth it? Perhaps we would be still be saving the planet from global warming? Using

information from the US Department of Energy, Dr Luce then pointed out that even if all of the viable onshore wind power resource in the entire Eastern US were developed, this would meet less than 4% of current US demand, and less in the future as electricity use rises. And he stated that even this much wind development would be unlikely to be realized due to many local siting factors not taken into account in the Dept. of Energy estimates. Accounting for the fact that electricity only accounts for about a third of US energy use, Luce then estimated that the maximum CO2 reduction by developing the eastern U.S. wind (onshore) would likely be less than 1%, which is basically insignificant.
Luce concluded from this that, given the low potential of onshore wind as a resource both locally and regionally, Massachusetts will not be achieving its goal of developing or promoting a significant regional energy source by encouraging onshore wind development. He noted though that precisely because Eastern wind resources are quite small, and with so many government financial incentives in place, the energy industry will still seek to develop every windy ridgeline it can in Massachusetts and elsewhere in the Northeast, and that this is already underway. “The Wind Rush is on” he stated, and with limited public financial resources, he suggested that diversion of money into wind could likely delay more effective measures by decades.
Luce then noted that in the long run, the small resource potential of onshore wind in the
East means that something else will have to carry 96+% of the electrical load here, regardless of how much onshore wind development occurs. His suggested that only solar power and offshore wind power have the physical capability to contribute significantly.
He stated that solar has the best all-around potential (more about offshore wind below), and in the next couple of years will likely be as cost effective as wind, and may already be if the costs of new transmission lines needed for wind energy are included. He also stressed that solar is a fundamentally different resource from wind. It is a much larger and well distributed resource and really the only serious onshore renewable power resource in the Eastern US. It is also much more scalable, and therefore much flexible in terms of siting than wind. It can be done on rooftops, in backyards, and he stated that there are myriad of out-of-the-way suitable sites for “solar orchards”. He did suggest, though, that solar should be sited carefully and with public support, and installed carefully so as to avoid compacting soils and avoid shading vegetation too much.
Because there is a much better correlation with peak load and much more flexibility in terms of siting, he also suggested that solar can and should be deployed so as to avoid new power lines. If distributed in small pieces it will also produce fairly smooth minuteto-minute variation overall, and that together with solar’s good correlation with peak loads means that close integration with natural gas power plants will not be needed nearly as much as with wind power.
Finally, Dr Luce then asked “what if some of the billions being invested in wind were invested into weatherization and efficiency and we pursued a true “Manhattan Project” of conservation? And what if some of those same billions were also used to help bring solar down in price, locating good sites, empowering the public? He ended by suggesting that

the optimal plan for reducing CO
2
emissions during the next five years would be to put our time and money behind higher efficiency vehicles, weatherization, energy efficiency, solar hot water, wood and geothermal heating, and at the same time for plan for and also begin a gradual photovoltaic transition. Then in the future he suggested we should continue these and greatly expand photovoltaic transition as photovoltaics come down further in price.
We note that for wind power as a whole of the U.S. Mr. Luce concluded, in follow-up correspondence to his presentation, that “My position is that offshore and Midwestern areas MIGHT be ok places for significant wind development, but that we have no real idea yet if offshore wind will be cost effective, environmentally benign, and also immune enough to hurricanes. There is now some evidence to the contrary on the hurricane question from Carnegie Mellon engineers, just this past week. And in the Midwest, there are still issues with transmission cost, birds (to some extent), and noise (if people are too close). I therefore suspect that distributed solar will prove to be the best source all around. But the case for this is certainly much stronger for the Eastern US at the moment, where wind development has very great impacts to mountaintops and is very resource limited.”
Dr. Luce’s talk will be shown on Falls Cable.
The next Wind Forum event at Memorial Hall will be Saturday, March 3, 7 pm Michael
McCann, Certified Real Estate Appraiser - The Negative Effects of Industrial Wind on Property Values and Robert Rand, of Rand Acoustics - Negative Health Effects
From Noise Living Near Wind Turbines. For more information, please go to www.shelburnewind,info