Teacher’s Notes Will climate change affect how well food crops grow? Introduction This experiment aims to encourage students to think about some of the possible effects of climate change on farming food crops in the future. Predicted climate change scenarios for the next several decades are likely to have impacts on farmers’ ability to produce food crops. The website (http://www.defra.gov.uk/foodfarm/landmanage/climate/index.htm ) of the UK’s government department responsible for agriculture, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), includes a series of predicted changes which will affect crop growing. Defra’s list includes temperature changes, changes in seasonality, hydrological changes (flooding and drought), changes in pest and weed levels, and increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (which affects plant photosynthesis). Globally, these changes will affect different parts of the world in different ways, and some places are likely to experience other changes too. For example, low lying coastal areas might see incursions of sea water due to sea level rise caused by melting glaciers and ice caps. In other areas, increased use of wells for irrigation might become contaminated by salty (saline) water. The salt in such water is toxic to many crop plants. These potential changes are uncertain, complex and frequently inter-related. It is difficult to predict exactly which changes will affect particular places and at what time. However, because of our need to grow crops to feed ourselves, and because of the planet’s growing population, it is certainly worth exploring how some of the changes directly affect how easy or difficult it is to grow plants that we eat as food. Method The aim of the experiment (which should take about a week to run) is to simulate the effects of some environmental changes on plant growth, using cress (as this germinates and grows quickly and easily). Equipment needed: foil trays, kitchen roll, cress seed, water, salt, sand/gravel, heat lamp. Each group of students is assigned an environmental change (see below). Each group then prepares two foil trays for growing cress (most should have done this before!): it is important that the same amount of kitchen roll is used in each tray and that the same number of cress seeds is used in each tray (a kitchen measuring spoon can be used to achieve this – no need to actually count the seeds!), so that the experiments are not biased by differences in set up. The first tray is a control experiment. That is, the cress seeds should be placed on the dampened kitchen roll, and left to grow. The kitchen roll can be re-dampened if necessary. The second tray is the one subjected to an environmental change. One from the list below can be assigned to each group. i. Higher temperature: place the tray under a heat lamp while the cress grows. The kitchen roll will probably need to be kept damp as the heat will evaporate the water. As an additional experiment, the group could try one tray with this extra watering, and one without, to simulate heat and drought together. ii. Drought: give the seeds less water than the control, or none at all. The group could try several trays with different levels of watering. iii. Flood: rather than the gentle addition of small amounts of water given to the other trays, once the seeds have germinated pour water on rapidly so they are covered. Flood water tends not to be clean but to carry sediment, so as an additional experiment the group could try flooding the cress and then partly burying it under sand or small sized gravel. iv. Salty water: the tray should be watered with saline water. Sea water salinity on average is 35 parts per thousand, i.e. 3.5g/l. Very roughly, this can be approximated by mixing ½ to 1 teaspoon of salt into a mug of hot water. Different experiments could use saline water from the start, or start with fresh water for dampening the kitchen roll and then switch to saline water thereafter. The ‘ control’ cress seeds should germinate after a day or two and keep growing for a week or more. The object then is to compare growth of the cress in the control with growth in the altered environment, as well as to compare the different altered environments. The students can be encouraged to think about how to measure growth: for example they could measure the height of the ‘crop’, or ‘harvest’ the crop after a set period and either weigh it if precise scales are available or think about other ways of estimating the volume or weight of the harvest. They can then draw up a table or chart to record findings and help them to analyse the results. Did the experiments make the group successful ‘farmers’? Or would there be a cress famine under their changed environmental conditions? Further discussion Following the experiment, here are some suggestions for further discussion. Farmers: How might farmers respond to some of the problems caused by climate change? i. In drought conditions, they might irrigate. But as mentioned above this might lead to ‘salinisation’ of the soil. ii. If they are faced by regular flood conditions, flood defences can be constructed. But, these are expensive, and may divert the problem elsewhere. iii. Science suggests it can provide answers to some environmental changes. Genetic modification (GM) of crop plants so they are more tolerant of drought or salinity is possible. But GM is very controversial for a number of reasons. iv. More sustainable , ‘agro-ecological’ techniques might be adopted, such as cultivation techniques which harvest and preserve water in the soil to help offset drought conditions. Geography: where will food be grown in the future? Particular parts of the world are predicted to suffer more ‘climate stress’ than other parts. For example, Mediterranean areas and Sub-Saharan Africa, already dry, are likely to suffer more extreme drought. Other more Northern areas might actually be able to grow more food as they become warmer. ii. Climate change scientists predict geographical changes in what crops are grown where, with a general northward migration of crop types (in the northern hemisphere). i. How will people cope? How might the effects of climate change on crop production affect the price of food, and what might be the social consequences? For example, reduced food production is likely to increase the price of food. Poorer people, and particularly poorer people in Developing countries, will find it harder to grow or buy enough food. Some people have argued that this is likely to lead to mass migration as people move in search of food or useable farmland, and that this might lead to future conflict. Governments and scientists are increasingly thinking about how to ensure sustainable food production and ‘food security’ in a world of changing environmental conditions. Experiments: were there any problems with the experiment? Did it work – did cress growth vary with the environmental changes imposed? Did the results match or differ from prediction? Were the results valid for explaining what might happen in the real world? i. Clearly, cress isn’t a major food crop and it was only grown for a week not a whole season. How could experiments be conducted with more important crops, like wheat or rice? ii. In reality, climate change will be much more changeable than in the experiments, and with mixed impacts. Is it possible to monitor what is going on in the real world to get a better understanding of environmental change? iii. Were there any problems with running the experiment – did any farmers forget to water their crops ! iv. What are the best ways to measure and record results, and what are the best ways to analyse differences between different trays of cress? Will climate change affect how well food crops grow? Most climate scientists agree that our climate is changing as a result of human activity over the past couple of centuries. This is mainly due to burning fossil fuels like oil, coal or gas. Climate change is likely to make the world warmer overall, and will also affect the amount of rainfall we get. Across the planet, different places will be affected in different ways. Some places may get warmer and wetter. Other places may get warmer and drier. On a warmer planet Earth, much of the ice stored at the North and South Poles, and in glaciers, is likely to melt. All of that extra water goes into the sea, and a bit like a bath filling up, sea levels will get higher. Lowland areas next to the sea may become flooded. We all rely on farming to grow the food that we eat. Climate change is likely to affect how well crops grow. Do they grow better when it is warm? What happens to crops when they get too dry, or if they are flooded? What happens to plants if rising sea levels makes the soil they grow in salty? This experiment aims to test the effects of different environmental changes on crops of cress plants. For this experiment, you will need: Foil trays Cress seed Kitchen roll Water Method 1. prepare two foil trays for growing cress: fold two sheets of kitchen roll so that they fit into the tray. Sprinkle cress seeds over the kitchen roll, use the same number of seeds in each tray. The seeds should germinate within a couple of days, and grow for a week or more. 2. label one tray your ‘control’ experiment. Water the seeds and leave them to grow. If the kitchen roll gets dry, gently add some more water. 3. in the second tray, create a changed environment by simulating one aspect of climate change. For example: make it warmer: use a lamp shining on the seeds. make a drought: use a lot less water than you do for your first tray, or no water at all. make a flood: once the seeds have germinated pour water into the tray quickly to cover the plants. You could also use sand or gravel to act as the sediment which floods usually wash onto the land. make it salty: use salty water to water the plants instead of fresh water. After growing your cress experiments, compare the ‘control’ experiment with the cress grown in the changed environment. What is the best way to measure and compare how well the cress has grown in the different conditions? What is the best way to record the results of your experiments? For example, could you draw up a table comparing different results? Or could you make a graph to show the differences? How did the cress plants respond to the different environmental conditions they were grown in? Did you expect these results?