10 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Definitions of Flood A flood is a natural event that can have far reaching effects on people and the environment. Flood can be defined as relatively high stream flow, which overtops the natural or artificial banks in any part of a stream, river, estuary, lake or dam, and/or overland runoff before entering a watercourse and/or coastal inundation resulting from super elevated sea levels and/or waves overtopping coastline defenses. Given the concepts of flooding that are being addressed, it is essential that the terminology used is consistent and understood. The following definitions of floods from different hydrologist and researcher are referred: Flood is a relatively high flow, which overtaxes the natural channel provided for the runoff (Chow et al., 1988). Flood is any high stream flow, which overtops natural or artificial banks of a stream (Rostvedt, 1968). Flood is a body of water, which rises to overflow land that is not normally submerged (Ward, 1978). Flood – a relatively high flow as measured by either gage height or discharge rate whenever the stream channel in an average section is overtaxed, causing overflow to the usual channel boundaries (Jarvis, 1949). 11 Flood – stage at which the stream channel becomes filled and above which is overflows its banks (Wisler et al., 1957). Flood – the result of runoff from rainfall and/or melting snow in quantities too great to be confined in the low water channels of stream (Linsley, 1964). Flood - relatively high stream flow that overtops the natural or artificial banks in any part of a stream or river (DID, 2000). Flash Flood – flood events where the rising water occurs during or a matter of a few hours after associated rainfall. It is often caused by sudden and unexpected local heavy rainfall or rainfall in another area (DID, 2000). Major Flood – appreciable urban areas are flooded and/or extensive rural areas are flooded. Properties, villages and towns can be isolated (DID, 2000). Minor Flood – causes inconvenience such as closing of minor roads and the submergence of low level bridges. The lower limit of this class of flooding on the reference gauge is the initial flood level at which landholders and townspeople begin to be flooded (DID, 2000). 2.2 Types of Flood Types of flood in Malaysia are: monsoon flood, urban flash flood, debris flow and mud flow, landslide, tidal flood, dam release, and bund breach (DID, 2000). Generally, Smith et al. (1998) classified floods into two types, which are river floods and coastal floods with different characteristics as follow: 12 River Floods Floods in river valleys occur mostly on floodplains or wash lands as a result of flow exceeding the capacity of the stream channels and over spilling the natural banks or artificial embankments. Mainstream Flood, inundation of normally dry land occurring when water overflows the natural or artificial banks of a stream, river, estuary, lake or dam (DID, 2000). Sometimes inundation of the floodplain, or of other flat areas, occurs in wet conditions when an already shallow water table rises above the level of the ground surface. This type of water table flooding is often an immediate precursor of overspill flooding from the stream channels (Smith et al., 1998). In very dry conditions, when the ground surface is baked hard or becomes crusted, extensive flat areas may be flooded by heavy rainfall ponding on the surface. This rainwater flooding is typical of arid and semi-arid environments but is also experienced much more widely (Smith et al., 1998). Also typical of arid and semi-arid areas is the situation where there are no clearly defined channels and where sheet wash flooding occurs by the unimpeded lateral spread of water moving down a previously dry or near-dry valley bottom or alluvial fan. In urban areas flooding often results from over spilling or surface ponding, as described above, but may also occur when urban storm-water drains become surcharged and overflow. Storm water is resulting from runoff from a storm event. During rainfall event some water remains on the surface or is held in the soil or underground aquifer as ground water, a portion of the water is used directly by plants and the remainder flows over the surface. This overland flow is called storm water (DID, 2000). 13 Local Overland Flood where inundation by local runoff rather than over bank discharge from a stream, river, estuary, lake or dam (DID, 2000). Coastal Floods Floods in low-lying coastal areas, including estuaries and deltas, involve the inundation of land by brackish or saline water. Brackish-water floods result when river water overspills embankments in coastal reaches as flow into the sea is impeded by high-tide conditions. Overspill is exacerbated when high-tide levels are increased above normal by storm-surge conditions or when large freshwater flood flows are moving down an estuary (Smith et al., 1998). Direct inundation by saline water floods may occur when exceptionally large windgenerated waves are driven into semi-enclosed bays during severe storm or stormsurge conditions, or when so-called 'tidal waves', generated by tectonic activity, move into shallow coastal waters. 2.3 Mechanisms of Flood Flood flow deriving directly from rain falling on a river basin originates mainly from hydrological responsive source areas, which vary in size (variable source areas) depending on the interaction of rainfall and catchment’s conditions. The source areas have saturated ground surfaces, which effectively shed, as saturation overland flow, virtually all the rain falling on them (Smith et al., 1998). Smith et al. (1998) documented the flooding mechanisms as follow: from early stages of a storm (Figure 2.3.1), all rainfall (P) infiltrates into the soil surface. Then, as a result of infiltration (I) and through flow (Qt) in the soil profile, the riparian areas and the lower valley slopes become saturated as the shallow water table rises to the ground 14 surface (Figure 2.3.2). In these surface-saturated areas infiltration capacity is zero so that all precipitation falling on them, at whatever intensity (i), becomes saturation overland flow (Qo(s)). The groundwater flow (Qg) within the saturated zone will also contribute to the flow in the channel. Figure 2.3.1: The Generation of Flood Flow – Early Stage of Rainfall (Smith et al., 1998). Figure 2.3.2: The Generation of Flood Flow – Rainfall Event (Smith et al., 1998). 15 Where rainfall is particularly intense, or where natural infiltration capacities have been reduced by anthropogenic effects such as soil compaction or overgrazing, overland flow may result from the process described by Horton (1933) and illustrated in Figure 2.3.3. During those parts of a storm when rain falls at a rate that is greater than the rate at which it can be absorbed by the ground surface there will occur an excess of precipitation, which will flow over the ground surface as overland flow: (i – f) t = Pe = Qo Figure 2.3.3: The Generation of Flood Flow – The Formation of Overland Flow in Areas of Low Infiltration Capacity (Smith et al., 1998). Overall, it is useful to consider formation of floods based on two categories based on the type of causative event: Formation of natural floods These are the floods, which result from heavy rainfalls or/and snow-ice melts water on natural (or substantially modified by man) catchments. Formation of artificial floods These are the flood due to release of impounded water by failure of a structures likes dam or other natural man-made barriers. 16 2.4 Origins and Factors Affecting Floods Generally, a flood is caused by a combination of heavy rainfall causing river or coastal to over flow from their banks, and can happen at any time of the year. Most river floods result directly or indirectly from climatologically events such as excessively heavy and/or excessively prolonged rainfall. In cold-winter areas, where snowfall accumulates, substantial flooding usually occurs during the period of snowmelt and ice melt in spring and early summer, particularly when melt rates are high. River floods may also result when landslides fall directly into upstream lakes or reservoirs causing a sudden rise in water level, which overspills the outlet or dam. Coastal areas are also at risk from sea flooding, where coastal floods are usually caused by a combination of high tides and the elevated sea level and large waves associated with storm surges, which result from severe cyclonic weather systems and low atmospheric pressure. Incidences of floods in urban areas are on the rise. This is because in new townships, the total impervious areas is very high since the housing developers only have to comply to an open space of 10%; the developers normally go for maximum built up areas to maximize land use. With respect to catchment runoff, an increase in area imperviousness from zero to 40% would cut the time to peak discharge by about 50% and increase the discharge magnitude by about 90% (DID, 2000). Before urbanization, rainwater is intercepted by the vegetation, infiltrates into the ground and takes time to travel to the river, but now it is quickly collected from the roofs and other paved grounds and canalized efficiently to public drains, which in turn rapidly brings it to the nearest river. Although floods are natural phenomena, the effects of rainfall resulting in excess water running into streams and rivers, uncontrolled development activities in watersheds and along river corridors and high sea level areas can increase the severity of floods. The high rate of sedimentation in the rivers can also lead to serious flooding. 17 Figure 2.4.1: Causes of Floods and Flood-Intensifying Factors (Smith et al. 1988). 2.5 Strategies for Flood Mitigation By virtue of its steep topography and intense convective storm rainfall, the Klang River Basin has been subjected to frequent flooding. As a result the Government has embarked on a comprehensive flood mitigation program involving expenditure of RM 500 million, construction of dams and extensive channel works. Flood mitigation works have been rendered ineffective because flood discharges have increased threefold since 1986, due to the effect of urbanization, which has been greatly underestimated in the past. There are many factors that have contributed to the increase in flood discharges including canalization works, creation of large areas of impervious surface, filling of swamps and filling of flood plains, but the most significant factor has been forest clearing. New development are be required to take runoff minimization measures such as retarding basins, rainwater tanks and infiltration trenches to ensure that post development discharges do not exceed pre-development discharges (DID, 2000). The implementation 18 of runoff minimization techniques into urban development has been emphasized by DID with the introduction of the Urban Stormwater Management Manual for Malaysia (Manual Saliran Mesra Alam – MSMA). The Proposal for the Stormwater Management and Road Tunnel (SMART) Project was identified as the most suitable alternative and the Government has decided for it to be implemented as soon as possible. The Government has issued a Letter of Intent appointing the MMC Engineering Group Berhad - Gamuda Berhad JV Consortium to implement this project. The Smart Project involves the diversion of flood runoff from the catchments area (near the confluence of the Klang river and the Ampang river) through a bypass tunnel before it is being directed back to the Klang River downstream. The Tunnel also provides an alternative traffic route to lessen traffic congestion at one Kuala Lumpur's southern gateway near the Sungai Besi Airfield. The general layout for the SMART Project is as shown in Figure 2.5.1. 19 Figure 2.5.1 – Alignment Of Stormwater Bypass Tunnel 2.6 Flood Forecasting System The function of flood forecasting procedures is to predict the shape of the flood hydrograph generated within the catchments, when it is subjected to various hydrologic phenomena (Pattison, 1975). Based on Chow et al. (1988), flood forecasting is an expanding area of application of hydrological techniques to obtain real time precipitation and stream flow data, insert data into rainfall-runoff and stream flow routing programs, 20 and forecast flood flow rates and water level for periods of from a few hours to a few days ahead, depending on the size of the watershed. Smith et al. (1998) stressed that flood forecast, is a scientific evaluation of an event in real time leading to the issue of a general alert about hazardous condition. In an International Glossary of Hydrology published by World Meteorological Organization (1974), flood forecasting is defined as the prediction of stage, discharge, time of occurrence, and duration of a flood – especially of peak discharge at a specified point on a stream – resulting from precipitation or snowmelt. Linsley et al. (1949) documented that there are three phases in flood forecasting operation: Collection of weather data; Formulation of the forecast; and Dissemination of the forecast. But Body (1969) documented that Flood Forecasting System can be considered to consist of four phases as follow: Observation of the operational data; The transmission of operational data; Formulation of the forecast; and The issue of the forecast. Flood forecasting can contribute significantly to the reduction of flood damages in rural and urban situations where advance warning permits the evacuation of people and livestock, the removal of equipment and the establishment of emergency services. But the errors in the forecast of flood stage or the time of arrival of conditions may lead to under preparation and avoidable damage, or to over-preparation, unnecessary expense and 21 anxiety, and a subsequent loss of credibility (Smith et al., 1998). So, the need for reliability in flood forecasting should be stressed. Flood forecasting system must be improved from time to time to ensure the accuracy of the system and provide reliable forecast. The accurate forecasting of flood conditions in both fluvial and costal environments is an essential prerequisite for the provision of reliable flood warning system (Smith et al., 1998). Singh (1989) stressed that the usefulness of forecasting system is based on three criteria, which are: accuracy, reliability, and timeliness. The procedures adopted for the preparation of a flood forecast depend largely on the size and complexity of the river system, the minimum time required for the forecast to be of benefit, the hydrologic data available for analysis, and the type of forecast required. The requirement of a flood forecast might be either an estimate of the flood crest height and the time of its occurrence or an estimate of the complete flood hydrograph (Pattison, 1975). However, the procedures may be grouped broadly as correlation methods, routing methods or rainfall-runoff methods. Floods cannot be totally prevented through structural measures due to technical and economic reasons. Consequently flood forecasting and warning service constitutes an effective and economical means to reduce live loss and property damage. In Malaysia, since 1971, DID have been given the task to provide flood forecasting and warning services. As part of the national flood relief machinery since 1971 and reviewed in May 1997 under the Operating Procedure of the National Security Council's Directive Number 20, DID is entrusted with the following functions in flood operation: Monitoring and reporting of real-time river levels Providing river level forecasts for important flood assessing points Providing logistic supports Carrying out flood damage assessment and rehabilitation works The Flood Forecasting Center of DID Headquarters is responsible for the planning and development of flood forecasting systems in the country. The flood forecasting 22 system basically consists of telemetric hydrological stations and forecasting models. Currently, the eight river basins that are equipped with operational flood forecasting modules are Sg. Kelantan, Sg. Pahang, Sg. Muda, Sg. Perak, Sg. Muar, Sg. Johor, Sg. Sadong and Sg. Kinabatangan. The models used are shown in Table 2.6.1. Presently, The Klang River Basin Flood Forecasting System is operational since 2002 based on MIKE 11 Modeling System with FLOOD WATCH as the decision support system. The core of this system is the hydrology module (NAM) to model the rainfall-runoff (RR) process, and the hydrodynamic (HD) module to calculate flow and water level within rivers and channels. Table 2.6.1: Flood Forecasting Models In Malaysia (DID, 2003). River basin Forecasting models Period in use Sg. Kelantan Sacramento Model Tank Model 1973 - 1981 1981 to date Sg. Pahang Stage Correlation Curve Linear Transfer Function Stage Regression Equation Prior to 1986 1986 to date 2001 Sg. Muda Stage Correlation Curve Stage Regression Equation 1974 to date 2001 Sg. Perak Stage Correlation 1960 to date Sg. Muar Linear Transfer Function 1986 to date Sg. Johor Black Box Model 1979 to date Sg. Sadong Linear Transfer Function 1986 to date Sg. Kinabatangan Linear Transfer Function 1986 to date 23 2.7 Flood Warning and Dissemination System A flood warning contains additional information, including recommendations or order for action, such as evacuation or emergency flood proofing, specifically designed to safeguard life or property (Smith et al., 1998). U.S.D.C. (1997) defined local flood warning system as a community based or locally based system use to warn local areas of flood danger and consists of many, if not all, of the following: rainfall, river and other hydrologic gages; hydrologic models; communication system; a community flood coordinator; and interested and capable volunteers. Flood warning system in Malaysia could be dated back to 1925 when floods occurred along the Sg. Kinta in Perak and Sg. Kelang, Sg. Selangor and Sg. Bernam in Selangor. It is also known that the flood warning system based on river levels of the Sg. Kelantan at Bradley Steps, Kuala Krai to warn the people of Kota Bharu downstream, has been in use since early1900’s. The police were reading and transmitting the rainfall and water level information via VHF sets to the Flood Warning and Relief Committee in Kota Bharu. Stage correlation method was generally used for forecasting floods in major rivers such as Sg. Muar, Sg. Perak, Sg. Pahang and Sg. Kelantan. After the floods of 1971 the flood warning systems of major rivers subjected to severe flooding were reviewed. The major deficiencies identified were inadequacy of rainfall and water level station networks to provide timely and reliable real-time data. Based on this review and its recommendations, telemetric stations, both rainfall and water level, were established at strategic locations to enable the transmission of real-time data to flood operation centers. In accordance with the Operating Procedure under the flood relief mechanism (Figure 2.7.1), when the river stage of any flood warning station reaches the Alert level, DID begins to monitor closely the flood situation. When it reaches Warning level, DID will inform the relevant flood control center so that flood relief mechanism shall be activated. 24 Danger level Warning level Alert level Flood Gaug e Normal level RIVER Alert level: river level significaritly above normal level, DID Flood Operation Room activated Warning level: river level near flooding level, District Flood Operation Room activated Danger level: river level caused considerable flooding, evacuation may be initiated Figure 2.7.1: Designated critical levels of Flood Warning Station in Malaysia (DID, 2003). Dissemination of flood warnings is the way in which the warning message is composed and issued risk communication with both the emergency services and those at risk and also influences the performance of flood warning systems (Smith et al., 1998). Warnings are disseminated through a daily flood bulletin, email, WebPages, newspaper, radio, television, and others communication media. Flood awareness is very important, where an appreciation of the likely effects of flooding and knowledge of relevant flood warning, response and evacuation procedures. In communities with a high degree of flood awareness, the response to flood warnings is prompt and efficient. In communities with a low degree of flood awareness, flood warnings are liable to be ignored or misunderstood, and residents are often confused about what they should do, when to evacuate, what to take and where it should be taken. 25 2.8 Sources of Project Data Real-time data is collected in the field via the existing hydro-meteorological networks of Selangor States and Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur and transmitted to the Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur DID Office. Currently, the Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur telemetry network being monitored includes 18 stations of which 6 stations are combined water level and rainfall gauges, 6 stations report only water levels and the remaining 6 only rainfall. The telemetry network of DID Selangor comprises 21 stations, of which 7 combined water level and rainfall gauging stations are included in the Klang River Basin Flood Forecasting Model. All telemetry stations transmit via radio communication in a real-time mode to the master station at DID Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur. Real time telemetry data are stored in an MS Access database. Station Name and Number, Type and Operational status are as shown in Table 2.8.1. 26 Table 2.8.1: Klang River Basin Telemetry Network Station No. Water Level Telemetry Rainfall Station Name Network 1 - 3116190 JPS Wilayah Persekutuan KL 2 3117480 3117180 Sg. Gombak Simpang Tiga KL 3 - 3216190 Sek. Men. Keb. Kepong KL 4 - 3317191 Genting Sempah KL 5 - 3117190 JPS Ampang KL 6 - 3317190 Air Terjun Sg. Batu KL 7 - 3219190 Kg. Kuala Seleh KL 8 3216490 3216180 Sg. Klang at Leboh Pasar KL 9 3217480 3217190 Klang Gates Dam KL 10 3217490 3217191 Sg. Klang at Leboh Pasar KL 11 3015491 3015190 Sg. Klang at Puchong Drop KL 12 3016480 3016180 Sg. Klang at Jambatan Petaling KL 13 3116492 - Sg. Batu at Sentul KL 14 3116490 - Sg. Klang at Jambatan Sulaiman KL 15 3117482 - Sg. Klang at Lrg.Yap Kwan Seng KL 16 3217481 - Sg. Klang at Jalan Tun Perak KL 17 3117481 - Sg. Bunus at Jalan Tun Razak KL 18 3116491 - Sg. Gombak at Jalan Tun Razak KL 19 3115480 3115180 Paya Jaras, Sg. Buloh Selangor 20 3015490 3015180 TTDI Jaya, Shah Alam Selangor 21 3015480 3015181 Taman Sri Muda Selangor 22 3014480 3014180 Bandar Klang Selangor 23 3118490 3118180 Kg Sungai Lui Selangor 24 2917490 2917190 Kajang, Hulu Langat Selangor 25 2816490 2816180 Dengkil, Hulu Langat Selangor