27 CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY AND MODEL DESIGN 3.1 MIKE 11 Modeling System Sources from: Danish Hydraulic Institute (1994). The core of the flood forecasting system will be the MIKE 11 modeling system. The MIKE 11 modeling system is a proven engineering software package. The MIKE 11 modeling system is built around a set of integrated modules for hydrology, hydrodynamics, flood forecasting, advection-dispersion and cohesive sediment transport, water quality, and non-cohesive sediment transport. For Klang River Basin, the core system is the hydrology module (NAM) to model the rainfall-runoff (RR) process, and the hydrodynamic (HD) module to calculate flows and water levels within rivers and channels. These two modules are integrated so that a range of problems from simple channel or catchments runoff calculations to complex river basin problems with multiple rivers and numerous contributing catchments can be addressed. The hydrodynamic formulation allows branched and looped networks and quasi two-dimensional flow simulation on floodplains as well as flow over a variety of structures, broad-crested weirs, culverts, pumps and user-defined structures. In particular the MIKE 11 Flood Forecasting module is used in automatic real-time continuous forecasting. 28 3.2 Flood Forecasting Module The MIKE 11 Flood Forecasting (FF) module has been developed to allow modeling in real-time forecasting situations. It provides a quick and user-friendly data management system and the transfer of real-time information on rainfall, water level, discharge, and reservoir operation into forecasts of river flows and water levels. The MIKE 11 FF module includes the following components: Calculation of mean area rainfall from point rainfall in a number of subcatchments within the area; Calculation of discharge from water level data and rating curves or rating tables; The RR model, using mean area rainfall to calculate sub-catchments inflow to the river system; The hydrodynamic module of MIKE 11 for routing the river flow and predicting water levels and inflow to reservoirs; An automatic updating procedure which utilizes the measured and/or calculated discharge or water levels for minimizing differences between observed and simulated flow/water levels at the time of forecast; and Specification of quantitative precipitation forecasts and predictions of boundary inflow in the forecast period. The MIKE 11 FF systems is fully integrated within the GIS based Flood Watch system. Flood Watch is dedicated to minimizing the amount of information required to be given by the operator in the daily forecast routine. All the model calculations required for issuing a forecast are done automatically in a series of steps. Such a module is ideally suited for real-time applications, where reliability and fast performance are crucial. Flood Watch can be used in connection with either a manually based or a fully automatic data collection and processing system. 29 3.3 Flood Mapping MIKE 11 GIS integrates the MIKE 11 Flood Forecasting modeling technologies with the Arc View Geographic Information System (GIS). MIKE 11 GIS is ideally suited as a framework and spatial decision support tool for spatial flood forecasting. Based on various MIKE 11 inputs and terrain topography MIKE 11 GIS produces three types of flood maps. These are depth/area inundation, duration and comparison/impact flood maps. 3.4 Flood Watch Sources from: Danish Hydraulic Institute (1994), (1995). Flood Watch is a decision support system for real-time flood forecasting combining an advanced time series data base with the MIKE 11 hydrodynamic (HD) modeling and real-time forecasting system, MIKE 11 FF, together with the Geographical Information System (GIS), Arc View. Flood Watch comprises a number of separate elements: The Flood Watch Graphical User Interface (GUI), a customized Arc View project which provides a live display of station measurements and forecasts; The MIKE 11 hydrodynamic (HD) modeling system with additional flood forecasting (FF) module used to produce the forecasts; The Flood Watch database, for the storage of real-time data; and A suite of modular tools performing a range of tasks, from data transfer and processing to forecast plotting and bulletin production. 30 The integration of a flood forecasting system in a GIS environment provides a very powerful tool for real-time flood forecasting and flood warning. Once the database is established and the graphical display of stations configured, Flood Watch allows for the fast and easy handling of the procedures involved in the management of a real-time flood forecasting and warning system. Input - Telemetry data is imported to Flood Watch from the hydro-meteorological network through the data conversion module. Import of data can run automatically or manually. Quantitative precipitation forecast of weather conditions in the forecasting period can be imported by means of the data entry module. Modeling - The model generally runs a "warm-up" simulation period of 6 hours before the time of forecast and simulates a 3 hours forecast. This has been defined specifically after evaluating many simulations and based on the fast response of the catchments to different storms. These parameters can be changed when more experience is gathered after more on-line rainstorm simulations. However, the selected parameters of Warm-up simulation = 6 hours and Forecast period = 3 hours may be in the average range. Once a request for a forecast is made, the system will automatically extract the required data from the Flood Watch database to MIKE 11, execute a model simulation and transfer the MIKE 11 simulated forecasts to the Flood Watch database for display and further dissemination. Output - The graphical display in Arc View is automatically updated with the most recent flood information. In addition forecasts can be produced as graphs of measured and forecast water levels and discharges, as printed bulletins or saved in HTML format for display on an Intranet or the Internet. 31 3.5 Modeling Setup To setup the modeling system for this study, the parameters such as rivers network, cross-section, boundary data, time series, HD and RR parameters are created according to the existing situation and for the future-planning situation of the Klang River Basin system. Each of the system is created separately for the purpose of comparison of each system. 3.5.1 Network Setup This setup is to join up the entire river network in Klang River Basin. All the river alignments are joining up according to the chainage from the plans. In this study, the SMART Tunnel alignment is setup according to the plan. The example of this setup is show in Figure 3.5.1. Figure 3.5.1: Network Setup 32 3.5.2 Cross-Section This setup is to input the cross-section of the river system according to the plans as given by surveyor. The physical of Cross-section River changed in different chainage. Besides that the radius of the river is also considered in this setup. This process is the most difficult part of the study and is time consuming. Figure 3.5.2 show the cross-section setting. Figure 3.5.2: Cross-section Setup 33 3.5.3 Boundary Data This setup is the most important part of the modeling system. It contains with Hydrodynamic data that need the time series data of all the river discharge and water level values. In this study, the river system with and without SMART use the same time series so can see the result of the maximum discharge and water level. The setup is shown in Figure 3.5.3(a) to (c) Figure 3.5.3(a): Boundary Data Setup 34 Figure 3.5.3(b): Discharge Time Series Figure 3.5.3(c): Water Level Time Series 35 3.5.4 Hydrodynamic This setup is to input all the initial bed level and discharge data for every chainage of all the rivers. It also needs the wind factor, bed resistant and many parameters as shown in Figure 3.5.4. Figure 3.5.4: Hydrodynamic Parameters 36 3.5.5 Simulation Simulation is the final stage of the modeling setup where it simulates all the parameter data that was created. It needs to call in all the parameter files to run the simulation. The simulation will provide the result of discharge and water level for the whole system of Klang River Basin. The example of this setup is shown in Figure 3.5.5. Figure 3.5.5: Simulation Setup