Ellis Park
Race by Race Analysis
Friday, July 17 – Race Day 7
FIRST – SPEED PROTOCOL is the likely favorite here even though hasn’t raced in ten months and only
started once last year finishing last in a dirt sprint at Churchill for Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas.
That was against maiden allowance company and off the bench is entered for $7500; bred to like the turf
and steady works figure s to take a lot of money. I’ll try to beat him with KORUS WARRIOR who
improved a lot last race when 3rd, beaten less than a length at Mountaineer. Not sure how the class equates
with this race but that race runner-up did come back to win next start and rider Dylan Davis off to good
start here with three wins opening weekend. HAPPY has gotten closer last couple races, including two 3rd
place finishes when dropped in for close to this level at Indiana.
Selections
6-9-8-7
SECOND – Hard to look past MOONLIT METEOR, winner of last six races at four different tracks, all as
the favorite and sure to be odds-on here. Versatile running style, has won from on or off the pace and given
the conditions of the race doesn’t give away any weight concession to other top contenders. Two best
chances to beat him at a price are SWAYLON BRAYLON, a winner then close against tougher fields at
Churchill than METEOR was facing last two starts at Belterra; also LUNGS has improved last couple starts
and if the pace is fast up front will be rolling from the back late.
Selections
2-6-3-4
THIRD – Three of the eight fillies and mares come into this race off a last race win. SOUTHERN BLING
was making just her second start of the year and delivered as the favorite on June 4 at Churchill; had over a
month to recover, great record at the distance and won three of last four at this level last year before
heading to the sidelines. BLUTADDA set the pace and tired late beaten just three lengths here opening
weekend running against a field for twice this claiming price; never run at this $5000 level before and
winner last summer at Ellis. MISS GIGI was another of the last race winners, going wire-to-wire at
Indiana. SLUICEWAY takes a class drop after running a couple of even, mid-pack finishes at Churchill;
softer field here and won last time she was in for this claiming price.
Selections
5-7-3-4
FOURTH – SARBI is one of many fillies in here dropping in class. She hasn’t had much impact on
allowance company at Prairie Meadows this year but like the easier spot and the turnback in distance from
recent two turn races; she was on the board in all but one sprint race last year and no worse than 3rd when
entered for any claiming price. Not clear how pace scenario might work out in a field where nobody looks
to get on the early lead, but BARS AND STARS might inherit that role. Not at all sure she can get this
distance, her worst races have been at a mile longer than today’s 7/8 th, but if she can get loose early might
hang around long time. ROWDY MISS is another class dropper, away from the races for ten months does
show a couple local works and wouldn’t take much off the bench to have an impact here.
Selections
5-6-4-2
FIFTH – Trainer Wesley Ward shows up with two entries here. SOLAN raced once in New York,
sprinting on the grass. He missed the break and didn’t show much but adds Lasix for this start and Ward
averaging almost 30% wins when going sprint to route. He also names Dylan Davis to ride this one and that
trainer/jockey combo is almost 25% over last two years. Other Ward starter is first timer RED AND
WHITE by first crop stallion multiple Grade 1 turf winner Cape Blanco; plenty of works from Florida and
last two months at Keeneland and Wesley wins at 18% with debut runners at a mile. ALL UP IN LIGHTS
ran one time, 3rd at Indiana; should improve with the experience and stretching out to a mile. Trainer Ken
McPeek also has two entered, both first time starters. MEETEETSE FLY has worked a little better in the
morning.
Selections
7-3-1-9
SIXTH – KING CYRUS and FRYERS WELL both exit the same race at Churchill last month and both
were claimed by high percentage trainers. CYRUS ran 3rd in that race and makes first start for trainer Joe
Sharp who won two races last weekend; 4-year old has a solid record going a mile and this race is lower
claiming price. FRYERS was just a length behind in the Churchill race and ends up with Chris Hartman.
Also a winner at the distance, these two look many lengths better than anyone else today.
CATCHIFYOUCAN is intriguing returning to flat track after three 2-mile steeplechase races this year,
including a win; dirt races last year weren’t bad and will certainly be fit.
Selections
6-3-5-2
SEVENTH – Give MARKET MAGIC a slight edge in a nice second level allowance field on the grass.
This filly beat a nice allowance field in Florida then was close 2 nd behind multiple graded stakes winner
Tepin. Her only poor effort this year was on very soft ground at Keeneland and should get nice ground
saving trip from the rail post. NAPLES GOLD won last time out when dropped in for a claiming price; she
came from far back in a full field and claimed from the race for $30,000 by trainer Ian Wilkes who doesn’t
claim a lot of horses. She’s worked three times since the race but finished a couple lengths behind top pick
this spring. Throw out the last ‘off-the-turf’ race and SHARE THE SUGAR fits making third start of the
year; return race this year was runner-up behind tough filly Wild Swava at Indiana.
Selections
1-3-8-2
EIGHTH – DE FACTO was a sharp last out winner at Churchill on the dirt, first time running against
anything close to this level. Exceptionally bred for grass, he won on turf last year and even showed up in
tough stake last fall. Obviously had issues after the layoff was claimed for $15,000; throw out the poor
effort in the slop two races back just like the way he won against last race against full field. Two big class
droppers show up in the nightcap, ARBORETUM and ARCTIC SLOPE. ARCTIC SLOPE was competing
in stakes races last year but last few starts were vs. mid-level claimers in New York. Never won on turf and
few recent races show some trouble lines so needs a clean trip even against this much easier group.
ARBORETUM strung together good turf races in New Orleans this winter but tailed off last two starts,
even ignoring the rained off turf try at Indiana.
Selections
3-9-10-1