WFSC 604 – ECOLOGICAL MODELING
(Formerly, “SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SIMULATION IN ECOLOGY AND NATURAL RESOURCE
MANAGEMENT”)
Fall Semester 2010
Originating TR 12:45 – 2:00 PM; Nagle Hall, Rm. 110
W.H. Neill
Nagle Hall, Rm. 212B
979-845-5759 (wneill@tamu.edu)
Course archive: WFSC604archive.html
OUTLINE OF COURSE TOPICS AND RELATED CHAPTERS IN TEXTBOOK
1
Welcome & Overview
2
Introduction: The Systems Approach to Problem Solving (Preface; Chapter 1)
3
Basic Concepts of Systems Analysis and Simulation (Chapter 2)
4
Introduction to STELLA: Survey of Basic Tools and Procedures
5
A First Exercise in Simulation Modeling: Conceptual Model Formulation (Chapter 3) and
Quantitative Model Specification (Chapter 4)
6
A First Exercise in Simulation Modeling: Model Evaluation (Chapter 5) and Model Use
(Chapter 6)
7
Modeling Population Dynamics with and without Density Dependence (Chapters 11 &
12); Sibley’s Theta-logistic Population Dynamics
8
Deeper into STELLA: The Fractional DT Problem; Daisy-chaining Input Series; Conveyors vs.
Reservoirs
9
Lagging State Variables vs. the HISTORY Built-in; Data Import & Export; Comparing Simulated
and Observed Responses
10
Modeling Predator-Prey Interactions and Interspecific Competition: Coupled Models of
Population Dynamics for Two or More Species (Chapters 13, 15)
11
Modeling Thermodynamics and Physiological Thermoregulation (Chapter 16)
12
Modeling Bioenergetics and Growth of Individuals; von Bertalanffy and Power-scaling Models vs.
Bioenergetic Scope Model of Growth
13
Modeling Catastrophic and Dose-dependent Mortality
14
Model Stochastization: Using STELLA “Built-ins;” General Approach Using Inverse Frequencydensity Distributions; VLOOKUP in Excel
15
Coupled Models of Population Dynamics, with Growth and Mortality of Constituent Individuals
16
Modeling Habitat Selection with Drift, Migration, Crowding, Competition and Site Fidelity;
Dispersal; and, Related Distributional Responses
17
Synthesis: Modeling the Management of Natural Systems (Chapters 17-20)
18
Project Presentations by Participants
TEXTBOOK
Grant, W.E., E.K. Pedersen, and S.L. Marin. 1997. Ecology and Natural Resource Management: Systems
Analysis and Simulation. Wiley, New York. 373 pp.
STUDENT PROJECTS
Each student will be required to develop and apply a simulation model to address some issue (of the
student’s choice) in biology, ecology or natural-resource management. The written preliminary report on
the project must include (1) a statement of the objectives of the project; (2) a brief review of the literature
putting the project into perspective, relative to the current state of knowledge on the subject; and, (3) a
conceptual model of the system of interest, delineating system boundaries and internal structure. The
final project report, to be presented both in oral and written forms, must include (1) an updated version of
the initial project report, noting any changes; (2) a narrative and quantitative description of the simulation
model representing the system of interest; (3) a description of the simulations performed to meet the
objectives of the study; and, (4) a discussion of the results including an evaluation of the "usefulness" of
the simulation model. In addition, a copy of the simulation model(s) must be submitted with the final
project report.
GRADING
The grading scale will be the standard 90% for an A, 80% for a B, 70% for a C and 60% for a D. Student
performance will be evaluated based on a “mid”-term exam (300 points), the initial project report (200
points) and the final project report (500 points). Exact dates for each of these events will be set at least
one week in advance.
SUPPLEMENTAL READING
(1) Ford, A. 1999. Modeling the environment: An introduction to system dynamics modeling of
environmental systems. Island Press, Washington, D.C. 401 pp.
(2) Gold, H.J. 1977. Mathematical modeling of biological systems: An introductory guidebook. John Wiley
& Sons, New York. 357 pp.
(3) Haefner, J.W. 1996. Modeling Biological Systems: Principles and Applications. Chapman and Hall,
New York. 473 pp.
(4) Hall, C.A.S. and J.W. Day, Jr. 1977. Ecosystem modeling in theory and practice. John Wiley & Sons,
New York. 684 pp.
(5) Hannon, B. and M. Ruth. 1994. Dynamic Modeling. Springer-Verlag, New York. 248 pp.
(6) Jeffers, J.N.R. 1978. An introduction to systems analysis with ecological applications. University Park
Press, Baltimore, MD. 198 pp.
(7) Kitching, R.L. 1983. Systems ecology: An introduction to ecological modelling. University of
Queensland Press, St. Lucia, Queensland. 280 pp.
(8) Neill, W.H., and 14 co-authors. 2004. Ecophys.Fish: A simulation model of fish growth in timevarying environmental regimes. Reviews in Fisheries Science 12:233-288.
(9) Odum, H.T. and E.C. Odum. 2000. Modeling for all scales: An introduction to system simulation.
Academic Press, New York. 458 pp.
(10) Richmond, B. 2004. An introduction to systems thinking: STELLA. isee systems, Lebanon, NH.
165 pp.
(11) Swartzman, G.L. and S.P. Kaluzny. 1987. Ecological simulation primer. Macmillan, New York. 370 pp.