Denis Frith
Melbourne, Australia, December 2007 denisaf2000@yahoo.com.au
Summary
Humans have used natural resources to build up and operate industrialized civilization.
Their intelligence and the tools they have devised have enabled this development but nature has provided the necessary energy and materials, most of which are irreplaceable.
This development has also irreversibly devastated much of the eco system. This relation between the operation of the transient materialistic systems of civilization and the continuing ecosystem can be characterized as the Dependence on Nature Law, the most fundamental of the natural laws. Civilization is dependent on using the available natural bounty.
Reasons are put forward to back the assertion that the growth of materialistic civilization has peaked and its senescence is under way. This leads to the conclusion that there are a number of ecological, materialistic and social predicaments to be tackled to ease the aging process. The major one is to change the attitude of people, especially those in the position to make major decisions about how society uses such natural bounty capital as oil. They have to learn that society cannot subdue, conquer or subjugate nature.
And it can only temporarily dominate and exploit nature whilst there is sufficient remaining available natural bounty capital. Thus, domination and exploitation is not sustainable.
A research project with unexpected and devastating conclusions
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I am writing this essay for those people who are concerned
1
with the direction that society has taken and want to have more understanding of what has gone wrong
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, so some idea of what the future may hold
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. This is an attempt to explain in relatively simple terms the damaging impact of human activities on the operation of our ecosystem
4
, Planet
Earth 5 . I concentrate on the consequences of what 6 has happened to the ecosystem and how we have done this
7
. I do not examine why
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or how
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societies have managed this devastation so 10 what may happen. I do not examine who 11 may have been irresponsible 12 for the damage that has been done. I have tried to make the body of the presentation concise and largely in non-technical terms, other than use entropy
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as a measure of the health of the Body
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of civilization and of its host, Gaia
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. We are looking at the operation of a complex system so there is often a need to simplify by making generalizations.
Exceptions to these generalizations are often commented on in the endnotes. The view is an ecocentric
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, rather than anthropogenic
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, look
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of what is happening
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. It aims to be realistic
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about what human activities have done to its life support system. It therefore concentrates on the material operations of industrialized society rather than on the economic
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and cultural aspects
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. It is a pragmatic view
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of what happens in marked conflict with the many esoteric views
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about the behavior of humans. I believe there is no place in this essay for speculation
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on why humans behave as they do
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. We concentrate here simply on what their activities have done. I have added endnotes where elaboration may be useful and to provide references. I also use them for comment on contrary views.
It is pertinent to examine how some informed people see how society will progress. This examination is often critical of their views because they clearly do not appreciate the fundamental fact that all the operations of civilization invariably entail the irreversible 28 use of available natural goods and services 29 . That is the crucial point made in this essay. Bear that in mind 30 . It is important because there are common, but misleading views, about reversibility. For example, it is often said by seemingly knowledgeable people, that irreversible global warming can be avoided if emissions are reduced sufficiently. That is rubbish. Global warming is irreversibly under way now. The rigorous justification for that assertion of irreversibility is developed in following chapters.
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‘The Integration Website - Co-Developing the Noosphere’ http://web.archive. org/web/20060214 041357/http: //noosphere. cc/overview. html is one example. It contains ‘Since peer to peer is functioning so well in the sphere of producing software, the pre-eminent form of social capital, and since our whole economy is becoming dominated by 'immaterial processes', what could be expected is that practices arising out of this new cooperative sphere would 'infect' the total economy. The word
"Noosphere” was coined in analogy with the "geosphere", the world or layer of dead matter, and the "biosphere", the world or layer of living matter. Beyond and superimposed on these spheres lies another dimensional sphere, the "noosphere", from
Greek "noos, nous" = "mind", and "sphaira" = "globe", a figurative envelope of conceptual thought, or reflective impulses produced by the human intellect.’ The author is essentially saying that matters of the mind will dominate the economy: that an immaterial process will dominate it. Many people clearly believe this. After all, the well off can take for granted that they will continue to receive their basic material needs. They do not take into account that industrial civilization is temporarily propped up by exhaustible natural capital
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. I do not have their belief. I make the case that everything humans do and use is based on material obtained from the ecosystem and much of it is exhaustible. Our mental activities are totally dependent on our bodily needs
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being satisfied from what is available from this depleting natural bounty
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. I make the point that civilization has already used up a lot of the mostly irreplaceable bounty
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to build up its synthetic, transient Body. Society does not recognize that there is a fuzzy limit
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to this natural bounty but a limit is always presumed in the following discussion
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. And the
Body of civilization will continue to need maintenance even as the bounty approaches the limit. I make this crucial point at an early stage to help you adjust your mindset. I believe the noosphere mentioned above is absolutely inconceivable because the materialistic operation of society is based on unavoidable physical principles. We are able to play
Mind games only so long as the Body continues to be reasonably healthy.
There is continual reference to natural bounty capital because it underpins what civilization can really do. It is therefore appropriate to expand here on what it consists of.
The exhaustible natural resources, including the fossil fuels, clearly comprise a major element. Some of these, like some rare metals and fertile soil, are only considered by
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specialists in the appropriate fields although the coming scarcity of many of them will have an impact on some of the activities of civilization. There is appreciable consideration of forests for what they provide and their impact on carbon dioxide emissions. They do constitute, however, an element of this capital because civilization is irreversibly devastating the natural services they provide. Similar arguments apply to groundwater, Many of the material wastes being produced by industrial activities are causing pollution of land, sea and air, so reducing their capability to support life.
Biodiversity and geodiversity
39 are being disrupted so their contribution to the operation of the ecosystem is being reduced. Natural capital then consists of a wide range of natural goods and services that civilization manages to depreciate. The remaining capital varies appreciably regionally due to the varying presence of resources and to the varying ability of communities to use them. But the principle is the same. The limited capital is being used up at a high rate.
Discussion is dominated by the anthropogenic view of how the world operates
41
.
The following is a typical misperception of that type. ‘In Dusty Archives, a Theory of
Affluence’ by Nicholas Wade http://www.nytimes. com/2007/ 08/07/science/ 07indu.html
Dr. Clark’s ideas have been circulating in articles and manuscripts for several years and were published as a book in August 2007, “A Farewell to Alms” (Princeton University
Press). Wade’s views on Clark’s thesis are presented in this article. It is interesting that
Clark notices the escape from the Malthusian trap began with the Industrial Revolution yet looks for the reason in the behavior of people. Surely a major factor was that the
Industrial Revolution saw the rapid increase in what is termed the energy slaves, the ability of machinery to augment production. They had better tools to increase food production and to provide shelter and sanitation. This had a two-fold effect. It enabled more people to obtain their subsistence needs so improving survivability and driving population increase. It also enabled more people to devote some of their energies to education and invention. This seems to be the positive (reinforcing) feedback mechanism
(RFM
42
) that has played such an important role in the explosive growth in the developed countries and is now playing a similar role amongst the urban populations in the developing countries. <The natural-selection part of Dr. Clark's argument "is significantly
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weaker, and maybe just not necessary, if you can trace the changes in the institutions, " said Kenneth L. Pomeranz, a historian at the University of California, Irvine. In a recent book, "The Great Divergence," Dr. Pomeranz argues that tapping new sources of energy like coal and bringing new land into cultivation, as in the North American colonies, were the productivity advances that pushed the old agrarian economies out of their Malthusian constraints. > This quote from Wade about Pomeranz’s views shows he recognized part of the reasons for the advances made in the Industrial Revolution, the availability of the energy to drive the tools. Advances in the tools do not seem to enter into his argument.
Clearly, however, the advances in the available tools and the energy to drive them have been major factors in this explosive growth . It has been based on the fallacious premise that the consumption of this vast amount of available energy can continue. It is based on the false premise that we could use the energy available from the fossil fuels without any deleterious effects. We now have to come to terms with adapting to the consequences of both these false premises. Society has not escaped the Malthusian trap . It has fallen further into the trap by its clever misuse of limited natural bounty capital
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and its irrevocable devastation
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of the environment
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coupled with the building of a vast array of structures that should be maintained, if possible, using some of the remaining natural bounty. The vastly improved range of tools
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can only mitigate the collapse of civilization into the trap by assisting in the wise use
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of the remaining capital
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.
I read ‘
Indeed when Michael Collon said, "If you want to rule the world, you need to control oil, all the oil, anywhere," he has a point.’ in an article recently. I thought it worth quoting because it will help you to adjust your thinking towards reality
50
, which is not what is the view commonly held by humanity. Natural laws 51 control the operation of everything in the world, including humans. Humans can make decisions about which operations are carried out but they have to live with the consequences 52 , ordained by the natural laws, even if they are unintended. Oil is an exhaustible natural resource. People can make decisions about how the oil is used only so long as it can still be extracted. You can decide to have a smoke and suffer the consequences. You could go for a drive in your car and so consign some irreplaceable fuel to toxic waste that harms the health of the climate and possibly other elements, including you
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. Did you enjoy your smoke and the drive in your car? The ecosystem did not! And you cannot control the operation of the
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ecosystem, despite what Collon had to say. The Technocracy movement is a social movement that started in the United States during the 1920s and 1930s and advocates a form of society where the welfare of human beings is optimized by means of scientific analysis and widespread use of technology
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. It, in common with most views, ignores the reality 55 that whatever decisions are made by society about how natural resources are used; they are irreversibly, so unsustainably, degraded in the use. Technology can make the use of these resources more worthwhile 56 but cannot change the fact that they are used up 57 .
Thinking through the arguments presented in this essay will require the expenditure of a lot of your mental energy! Bearing in mind one fundamental fault in the operation of human society over recent millennia will help that thinking. It is a fault that has got completely out of hand in the past century. The fault is the belief that society can use the available natural bounty
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without many serious immediate or future deleterious consequences
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. Civilization is totally dependent on using this bounty, so should have used it as wisely as possible
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. It is also committed to using a lot of this bounty in the future to maintain as much of the Body of civilization as possible. This bounty includes the exhaustible natural capital
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and the continuing natural income
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. The bounty also includes many self-regulating natural services
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. Using both income and capital produces some items, like most food
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. Only using capital produces others, like electricity
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. There are no significant items used by society that are produced using income only
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.
Consequently, the use by civilization of natural bounty will generally entail an irreversible draw down of capital
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. It is noteworthy that most Cassandras
69
point out the realistic limits to growth 70 . This carries the implication that the problem will be solved when growth ceases. That is not so because the unsustainably rapid draw down of the natural bounty will continue – for a time and with horrendous consequences for society and the environment 71 . The generally accepted definition of ‘sustainable’ 72 development is development that "meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs 73 . This implies, in the terminology employed here, that the development of civilization does not entail the draw down of natural bounty capital. But it does, as shown below, so the development of the Body of civilization is not sustainable, even if it is the objective of proposed programs
74
. This really is the crucial
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point in this essay
75
. The operation of civilization entails the irreversible consumption of a range of elements of natural capital, at a high rate in ‘developed’ regions. The irony is that ‘growth’ just accelerates this rush to the cliff.
Perhaps the best known effort on this subject was carried out by the Club of Rome and described in ‘ Limits to Growth’ and ‘Limits to Growth: the Thirty Year Update’ 77 .
There have been efforts to gain insight into what is happening. An example of this is provided in http://www.epa.gov/nheerl/publications/files/wvevaluationposted.pdf
Environmental Accounting Using Emergy: Evaluation of the State of West Virginia. This is a detailed document describing the methodology used and applying the resulting complex model to West Virginia. It supplies a comprehensive list of the data used and its sources. It equates energy, material, information and money to emergy. It takes into account waste production but not its effect on climate. It is a meticulous analysis that doubtless provides useful insight into the current impact of the economy on some aspects of operation of the ecosystem. It does not, however, recognize that there is a limited natural bounty nor does it include the commitment to use some of the remaining natural bounty for maintenance, replacement, remedial
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, restorative
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, consequential, adaptation and mitigation
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action that may be deemed necessary in the future. These issues, however, are covered in this essay.
The natural bounty consists of only tangible items. It comprises matter and, in many cases, the associated energy. It is irrevocably used in the operation of industrialized civilization. It now goes way beyond the prudent use of natural resources by many past, and even some today, indigenous communities. We have developed the means to use an expanded bounty
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, but it is still limited by physical constraints
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. The dominant modern society does not recognize that it is unsustainably drawing down on that natural bounty far too rapidly. It has the delusion 85 that it can continue to build up material wealth without having to pay a price, the decimation of its life support system
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. We cast that delusion aside here!
There is a need for clarification of what I mean by natural bounty, as it is a crucial concept in the development of the arguments backing the Dependence on Nature Law.
‘goods’ and ‘services’ are commonly used descriptive terms that I do not need to
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elaborate on here. It is necessary, however, to differentiate between income and capital.
’income’ refers to those goods and services that are continually available for the operation of civilization. Insolation continually provides the energy that drives many natural operations and some synthetic ones, like wind farms
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. That insolation is reliable income. Precipitation (rain, hail and snow) is income driven by the insolation 89 . If it is stored at altitude it has potential to provide worthwhile services
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to civilization.
However, capital is often employed in constructing dams and the like to assist in the supply of water for the uses of civilization. Subsidized 91 food is also partially income. On the other hand, the fossil fuels, minerals, fossil aquifer water are some of the exhaustible and irreplaceable substances
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that represent the natural capital that is drawn down by civilization. Soil fertility is being degraded
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, arable land is being paved over, old growth forests are being logged
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and many aquifers are being drawn on at a rate far exceeding the replenishment rate
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. They are some other examples of the draw down of natural capital. Damming of rivers, use of medication, commercialization of pollination, devastation of ecosystems leading to flora and fauna extinctions
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are some examples of society’s adjustment of natural services that appear to have deleterious side effects that may have serious, long term
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impact. They represent a decimation of natural capital. The emission of greenhouse gases certainly is as the consequential climate change
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will be difficult for flora and fauna
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, including us
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, to adapt to
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. It would be a major task
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to categorize and quantify all the elements in the natural bounty that are being irreversibly drawn down or degraded. However, discussion in this essay should be sufficient to convince even skeptics
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that civilization is irrevocably drawing down on the natural bounty that is its life support system.
The natural bounty discussed here is that currently perceived by the experts in the various fields. This approach is taken because there is clear evidence that the views of the powerful 105 are prejudiced and have been a contributing factor to the current serious situation
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. There is good reason to believe that the perception of the nature of the remaining natural bounty is not going to change much in the years to come. Exploration of the Arctic, off New Zealand and near the Falkland Islands for oil and gas could well add a little to the global natural bounty but that change is most unlikely to make an
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appreciable difference to the evolving scenario
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. Explicitly, the current natural bounty capital
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consists of the following components:
 the extractable stocks of raw materials, including the fossil fuels and many


 metals balanced ecosystems
109 fertile soil
110 potable water 111
The available natural bounty varies appreciably on a regional basis for the various components.
WATER
It will help putting this essay in perspective to refer to a talk given fifty years ago. ‘MAY 14, 1957.
Remarks Prepared by:
Rear Admiral Hyman G.
Rickover, USN. For
Delivery at a Banquet of the Annual Scientific Assembly of The Minnesota State Medical
Association, St. Paul, Minnesota entitled ’Energy Resources and Our Future’. Many
Cassandras would regard the Admiral’s views as being remarkably prescient. He gives a clear outline of the pivotal role of energy in the development of civilization. His comment ‘Fossil fuels resemble capital in the bank. A prudent and responsible parent will use his capital sparingly in order to pass on to his children as much as possible of his inheritance. A selfish and irresponsible parent will squander it in riotous living and care not one whit how his offspring will fare.’ seems to sum up the problem that has expanded in the half century since his talk. He noted how the population explosion would exacerbate this problem. He saw nuclear
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energy, with a little help from renewables, as
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providing the energy driving civilization when the fossil fuels declined. It would seem that he had a good view of the quandary facing civilization today. That is wrong. He had the typical anthropogenic view
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. He was not looking at what human activities have done to the ecosystem. He was looking at how human society has used some exhaustible natural resources for its own ends, without regard to the physical consequences. Energy supply and over population are only two aspects of the holistic problem that society needs to address as wisely as possible 115 . Climate change 116 , destruction of
biodiversity 117
, water 118 and arable land supply are some other aspects of this holistic problem 119 .
Achieving the objective of energy security
120
would only exacerbate the other problems.
The main point I make is that global entropic growth
121
is what is happening so industrial civilization is not sustainable
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.
Another view helps to put the situation into perspective. http://www.resurgence.org/contents/243.htm
’The Human Impact. We need a paradigm shift in which economists, politicians and ecologists alike recognise that humans are more than mere producers or consumers.’ by Sir Crispin Tickell. Resurgence No 243 (July / August 2007).’THE EARTH'S
SURFACE is wafer-thin yet everything in and on it connects and cannot be understood
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except as part of an integrated system. This unity has been recognised from the earliest days of human observation.’ Sir Crispin discusses how thinking people have recognized the proper place of civilization in the operation of Gaia over the centuries. However, he takes the view that society can show its cleverness and learn to live with our life support system. His optimist view stems from failure to recognize that civilization is irrevocably and irreversibly drawing down on Gaia’s limited natural bounty. There is no turning back the clock. That is what civilization has done wrong. That is the main point established in this essay.
‘The New Gaia Atlas of Planet Management’ is a comprehensive examination of the ecosystem and civilization’s place in it. As the title implies, it is an anthropogenic view of the impact of human activities on what happens in society and to the ecosystem.
It gives the impression we can manage Gaia! It does provide much valuable insight into what has happened. It emphasizes the recent rapid growth in population, in the use of energy and in the availability of information
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. It does not mention the vast build of civilization
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that requires the use of natural resources for repair and maintenance. This is a commitment that few include in their budget. Concentration on an ecocentric view here brings out the misperceptions in this volume, so indicates how its inferences are misleading.
The essay ‘Energy and Our Future’ by Cutler Cleveland in Earth Portal provides a resume of the dominant role played by the fossil fuels in the development of industrial society in recent centuries. He refers to the energy transitions from wood to coal to oil and gas. He then speculates on the transition as oil and gas become scarce. He goes into the possibilities in some detail and discusses the interaction with climate change
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, food production and poverty
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. He manages to give the impression that this transition is possible with an increasing population and without having a major impact on business as usual. It is surprisingly optimistic about how much renewable energy
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can substitute for the fossil fuels in a timely manner
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. I am sure many people will believe this view is credible because of the author. Yet it does not take into account the under lying facts spelt out in the Dependence on Nature Law below. It gives the impression that an adequate on-going supply of energy is sufficient to enable civilization to progress - in its devastation of the ecosystem!
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Quite a few Cassandras note the impact of cheap oil
133
on the exponential population and economic growth
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in the past century, partly because of its impact on food production
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. There is no doubt this has been the dominant factor, particularly in the developed countries. They speculate on the impact of oil supply dropping below
demand on these growth factors. That is, they presume that oil will be the dominating
factor in the future
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. That is not a valid presumption. Chaos dynamics gives us some insight into the unpredictability of the behavior of complex systems. In addition, there is plenty of evidence that other issues may be the dominant ones in some regions
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.
Entropic growth 138 is indicative of the state of the operations of communities from worldwide to local ones. This concept indicates the vulnerability to tipping issues 139 without presuming which ones will occur or when. The risk of catastrophic events is greatly increased. I avoid having to make a dubious presumption by concentrating on entropic growth 140 , the tendency towards disorder 141 of the operations of the Bodies of civilizations.
There are many seemingly authoritative individuals
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, organizations
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, books
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, articles 146 , lists 147 , sites 148 , commentators 149 and views 150 making contributions to the subject
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. They have been vocal
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for decades but are largely ignored
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, even by the knowledgeable
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and powerful
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. For example, Richard Duncan has propounded his
Olduvai Theory
156
for decades. It provides a sound basis for the assertion that industrial civilization is on its last legs because of its dependence on a declining energy supply. It does not, however, examine the holistic scene
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. I refer to these proponents of the reality as ‘Cassandras’ rather than call them ‘doomsayers’, a more common term amongst those who prefer not to face this reality
158
. There have also been authors
159
who, over centuries, have looked realistically at how human cultures have used and abused the ecology that forms the basis of their livelihood. It is almost as though these authors merely whispered their message
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because it has been almost universally ignored by modern society
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. I refer to them collectively as the ‘Realists’ to aid identification of their place in this discussion. There are, however, many seemingly knowledgeable people who deny
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that global society has got it wrong
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. There are also, naturally, many authors
164
who foster the belief that we are clever enough to find solutions
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to the predicaments our activities have created. These ‘Cornucopians’ have plans that promote business as usual 166 .
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There are many prominent people who can be classed as Cornucopians. A natural question is why is the message presented here to be preferred to their views. I will comment on just one to give you an appreciation of the noise that is around. Daniel
Yergin is chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, an IHS company. He received the Pulitzer Prize for his book The Prize: the Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and
Power and is also the author of Commanding Heights: the Battle for the World Economy.
He is writing a new book on energy and geopolitics. In a recent article he puts forward three measures to tackle the developing energy, climate change
168
crisis. He believes
energy demand will continue to increase with economic growth
169 . The first measure aims at improving energy efficiency. He uses a misleading definition based on energy usage compared to economic growth 170 . His claim that energy efficiency has improved in the U.S. is really partly based on inflation and partly on the move away from manufacturing to providing services. There may have been some real improvement of efficiency in the methods used but this number does not provide that information.
Secondly, he sees renewable energy measures as meeting much of the increasing demand, despite their small impact to date, even in European countries 171 . Thirdly, he sees carbon sequestration helping to meet the emission reductions required even though the technology is not yet proven. His proposals do not stand up to the scrutiny of quite a few knowledgeable persons. Yet his views are supported in the media and by a number of prominent people. I will, however, criticize his proposals only on technical grounds. He discusses only the supply of industrial energy and the associated impact on the climate
172
.
He presumes business as usual is possible, including population growth, without any mention of the damage that civilization is doing to its life support, the ecosystem
173
. He looks only at one side of the ledger. I look at the other side of the ledger as it shows that the synthetic measures we have installed to power industrialization are inherently unsustainable because they all have limited life.
Yergin’s arguments illustrate a problem that any concerned person faces. They have to judge which conflicting but plausible views should be believed
175
. No one can have the depth of knowledge in the wide range of fields that they would like in order to be confident in their judgment. This example just illustrates the difficulty.
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http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NTc0Yjg4OTRiZjM2Y2EwZjhlZDQxZDc0YWUy
NWZiMTg=&w=MA ==
This link is to ‘Bad Climate “Science”’ by Joel Schwartz. I believe it is a fascinating article because it illustrates how it is possible to present a prejudiced view in a seemingly authoritative fashion, largely by using selective arguments. Schwartz argues that there is a case for using climate geoengineering to mitigate climate change rather than the reduction of fossil fuel use favored by the climatologists. He makes a lot of sound points.
I would not presume to comment on the possibilities of climate geoengineering. What does intrigue me, however, is that he takes the anthropogenic view of the benefits of the fossil fuels to human society in contrast to its unequivocal (in the view of IPCC) deleterious impact on the climate. He says ‘ the fossil-fuel energy that played a leading and essential role in the vast improvements in human health
176
, prosperity
177
, and life expectancy
178
during the last hundred years.’ That is one side of the coin
179
. There is no mention of the fact that the fossil fuels are exhaustible natural resources. We have built up a society addicted to their use even though, for example, we have used up about half of the oil in my lifetime
180
. There is no mention of the fact that this use of fossil fuels has fostered a human population growth that has enabled tremendous destruction of the ecosystem. There is no mention of the fact that maintaining and replacing the massive temporary structure of civilization will consume a lot of the remaining fossil fuels. The irony is that if the climate geoengineering he favors were successful in mitigating climate change then it would take pressure off attempting to cope with the holistic problem that there are too many people consuming too much on what is left of the natural bounty. It is interesting that he talks about risk management in view of the absolute failure of science to realistically address the risks to the ecosystem of using the fossil fuels to power industrial civilization. He supports a risky artificial measure to mitigate a problem created by an artificial measure! He should take notice of what Einstein had to say. `You can't solve a problem with the same mind-set that got you into the problem in the first place'
181
.
Richard Heinberg in MuseLetter #181 / May 2007 entitled ‘Talking Ourselves to
Extinction’ discusses the role of language in enabling humans to develop civilization.
There is quite a bit of speculation about how this came about. I will not comment on that as it is not relevant to the subject I am concentrating on, what human activities have done
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to the ecosystem. There are, however, a couple of points in his discussion that I will comment on because they indicate how the anthropogenic view he takes does lead to misunderstanding
183
. He does articulate two of the problems facing society, climate change
184
and peak oil
185
and speculates on how society may use language coupled with its other attributes to tackle these problems. He, like most commentators, highlights the role of humans using energy in the development of civilization. He treats energy as a quantity that exists in isolation. This, of course, is a common form of short hand in discussions. But it does lead many to forget that using energy invariably means using the associated materials. Using these materials evokes a number of problems, some of which
Heinberg refers to without noting how they come about. He discusses that fascinating characteristic of complex systems called ‘emergent phenomena’ and cites some examples. But he regards the unintended consequences of some of the human activities as being emergent phenomena. I believe that interpretation is erroneous. Studies of the operation of aspects of the ecosystem have identified a number of emergent phenomena.
That is something that we have learnt about the behavior of the ecosystem. ‘unintended consequences’ on the other hand, in my view, are the result of procedures humans have installed to make use of the ecosystem without full understanding of what would happen.
Heinberg makes the case, as in this essay, that civilization has gone too far in making use of the limited natural resources. The major difference in the two presentations is that here we provide irrefutable argument about the damage that human activities do to the operation of the ecosystem. This enables those familiar with this argument to refute the skeptics who believe society can continue with business as usual in devastating our life support system. It is because of this difficulty of judging apparently plausible statements that I decided to concentrate on a sound basis for the simple issue of what had human activities done to the operation of the ecosystem.
THE TRAGEDY OF THE COMMON REVISITED, by Beryl Crowe (1969); reprinted in MANAGING THE COMMONS, by Garrett Hardin and John Baden
W.H.Freeman, 1977; is a fascinating consideration of urban social forces. Its relevance here is that there is no mention of the ecological constraints on the operations of society.
It is a typical anthropogenic study that has meaning only when how that society operates is not significantly affected by ecological constraints. In other words, this study presumes
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that the Dependence on Nature Law does not have a significant impact on the operation of society. That presumption may be applicable to the communities that are currently well off. But it is most unlikely to continue as the impact of the economic decline trickles up.
We will not speculate here on how urban communities will respond to the necessary power down as it is too uncertain and outside of the scope of this essay. But it will have to happen. http://www.freedomforceinternational.org/pdf/Report_from_Iron_Mountain.pdf
‘THE REPORT FROM IRON MOUNTAIN’. This is taken from Chapter 24 of ‘The
Creature from Jekyll Island’ © 2002 by G. Edward Griffin.
This fascinating comment on the book ‘The Report from Iron Mountain’ discusses the possibility of a global government using a supposed enemy as the basis of its power over the proletariat. One of the possible enemies discussed is the environment. The article argues that the environment is being portrayed as the enemy by what it claims is fallacious assertions. I repudiate these arguments. I present in this essay arguments that the structure of civilization is based on largely irreversibly using the available goods and services of the ecosystem using lifed procedures. Our society is the enemy of the ecosystem, so of our civilization. That is, civilization is in a self-destruct mode of operation.
Whether Leonard
Lewin's book, "Report from Iron Mountain on the Accessibility and Desirability of
Peace" was a hoax or not, the book made the absolutely fascinating assertion that at its core, a capitalist economy (like the one ruling the world today) needs to waste resources
because there simply is not enough demand otherwise to keep all bottom lines rising. If I
remember right, it was held that waste (excess production) of something like 35-37% had to be wasted in order to keep things in balance." This perceptive view can be looked at in a different manner. When a human obtains the basic needs of food, water and rest, he/she has physical and intellectual energy to expend. Most people, especially in the developed and developing countries need not expend much of this energy on sustenance because they have energy slaves to power the machinery that does the mundane for them. Some find an outlet for their surplus energy in contributing to the culture. However, the majority, especially in the cities, expends their surplus energy on producing and consuming stuff 188 made out of irreplaceable material from the ecosystem. They use the energy they get by drawing down on natural capital to degrade their life support system!
16

This reality, of course, is not sustainable. It is not very wise. It is not widely perceived yet because the draw down on the natural capital is not yet hurting the movers and shakers.
They are not looking ahead. The object of this essay is to clarify what the simple reality is and what it has led to. http://globalpublicmedia.com/relocalization_a_strategic_response_to_peak_oil_a nd_climate_change
‘Relocalization: A Strategic Response to Peak Oil and Climate Change’ by Jason
Bradford, PhD Biology, May 23, 2007. Bradford explains: ‘In the Ecological Economics model, the Human Economy is a subset of the Earth System, and therefore the scale of the Human Economy is ultimately limited. The Human Economy depends upon the throughput or flow of materials from and back into the Earth System. Limits to the size of the Human Economy are imposed by the interactions among three related natural processes:
1. the capacity of the Earth System to supply inputs to the Human Economy (Sources),
2. the capacity of the Earth System to tolerate and process wastes from the Human
Economy (Sinks), and
3. feedbacks caused by too much pollution
190 .’
Whilst the terminology is different, the view he is putting forward is broadly the same as in this essay and summarized by the Dependence on Nature Law. He goes on to say ‘The
Earth System can be viewed as the Natural Capital and all other forms of capital are nested within and dependent upon it. Population can be thought of as Human Capital, referring not just to population size, but also to people’s education, skill sets, norms, standards and laws. Industry can be more broadly thought of as the tool sets people use, including their homes and transportation networks, which are also known as Built
Capital. Ecological Economics views Human Capital and Built Capital as subsets of
Natural Capital. Furthermore, these different forms of capital cannot easily be substituted for one another but are instead complimentary.’ His Natural Capital is an attribute of
Gaia, his Earth System, but he does not point out that it is being irreversibly devastated.
That its entropy is growing. He has the conventional view of economics, the production
17

of goods and services, without examining what it is doing to the support system. He makes the conventional assumption ‘In contrast, a sustainable economy would need to run on the income from solar energy and not degrade ecosystems through the build up of wastes or the mining of nutrients.’ as though there is some practical way of stopping industrialization degrading the ecosystem. ‘Relocalization is based on an ethic of protecting the Earth System--or Natural Capital-- knowing that despite our cleverness, human well-being is fundamentally derived from the ecological and geological richness of Earth.’ That statement summarizes the reality extremely well while emphasizing the role relocalization can play in the power down. ‘Relocalization takes a different perspective altogether. Instead of working to keep a system going that has no future, it calls us to develop means of livelihood that pollute as little as possible and that promote local and regional stability. Since much of our pollution results from the distances goods travel, we must shorten distances between production and consumption as much as we can.’ This makes a good case for relocalization as a contribution to mitigation of the impact of the decline in the natural bounty. He does not, however, address what we will do about maintaining the Body of civilization with the declining availability of this natural bounty. http://www.precaution.org/lib/07/prn_decisionrules.htm
Rachel's Democracy & Health News #919, August 9, 2007. ‘TWO RULES FOR
DECISIONS: TRUST
IN ECONOMIC GROWTH VS. PRECAUTION.’
[Rachel's introduction: Since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution, we have assumed that economic activity tends to create a net benefit for society as a whole, even if some people are harmed and the environment is degraded. But now there is evidence that the entire planet and all its inhabitants are imperiled by the total size of the human enterprise. As a result, the precautionary principle 192 has arisen as an alternative way to balance our priorities. Two overarching decision rules are competing for supremacy--" trust in economic growth" vs. "precaution. " Europe is edging toward precaution. The U.S. is, so far, sticking with "trust in economic growth."]
By Joseph H. Guth, PhD is Legal Director of the Science and Environmental
18

Health Network. He holds a PhD in biochemistry from University of Wisconsin
(Madison), and a law degree from New York University. ’Everyone knows the role of law is to control and guide the economy. From law, not economics, springs freedom from slavery, child labor and unreasonable working conditions. Law, reflecting the values we hold dear, governs our economy's infliction of damage to the environment.’ Guth goes on to compare the influence of ‘sound’ science on the impact of the environmental decision rules. He makes the case that the decisions being used by society should be based on the precautionary principle to compare the damage done to the environment with the benefits to society. He argues that the
precautionary principle should be adopted to limit the
cumulative damage to the environment. His arguments appear to be sound yet some aspects of the general thesis do not stand up to scrutiny. Firstly, civilization has already used up a large amount of the exhaustible natural resource capital and irreversibly devastated much of the ecosystem. Secondly, he presumes that ‘sound’ science can contribute to the decision process even though the record
193
does not support that premise. Thirdly, he talks about the identification of a threat to the environment. He makes a sound case for adjustment of the way society operates without providing the sound case for doing so. That case is made in this essay by looking at what civilization has done from the ecocentric point of view.
There are a myriad of international
195
, government
196
and semi-government organizations
197
that one would expect to cover their fields authoritatively yet they often provide obfuscation
198
, cornucopian
199
, conflicting
200
or prejudiced views
201
. There are, however, numerous attempts
202
to address the holistic predicament and this essay is intended to supplement these by providing understanding of the basis of the ecological reality. The activities of our industrialized civilization are totally dependent on irreversibly degrading the ecosystem 203 . That process is not sustainable 204 . In fact, collapse cannot be avoided. We may, however, ease the economic decline by really being clever
205
!
I know that many people who are aware of the problems human activities are causing find it very difficult to convince family and friends that the conventional economic growth paradigm is faulty
207 . Some of these Cassandra’s may be spelling out the economic consequences of the expected peaking in oil supply. Others may be more
19

concerned with explaining the consequences of climate change
208
. Environmentalists are striving to have regulations put in place to limit the impact of industry on the environment. These Cassandras are almost invariably hindered in presenting their view by having to use a range of opinions, arguments and evidence in presenting a verbal case somewhat less convincing than what they have in mind. They find that, consequently, they rarely make headway against the prejudiced, conventional view of the sacredness of economic growth 209 . This communication problem can be eased appreciably by using a fundamental fact brought out in this essay and installed as the Dependence on Nature
Law. It is a fact that links all these problems together in an indisputable case for what human activities are doing to the ecosystem
210
.
‘To Remake the World. Something Earth-changing is afoot among civil society’ by Paul Hawken. Published in the May/June 2007 issue of Orion magazine. Hawken has estimated the worldwide number of environmental and social justice groups as probably a million or more. He goes on to say ‘Historically, social movements have arisen primarily because of injustice, inequalities, and corruption. Those woes remain legion, but a new condition exists that has no precedent: the planet has a life-threatening disease that is marked by massive ecological degradation and rapid climate change
212
. It crossed my mind that perhaps I was seeing something organic, if not biologic. Rather than a movement in the conventional sense, is it a collective response to threat?’ And followed with ‘The promise of this unnamed movement is to offer solutions to what appear to be insoluble dilemmas: poverty, global climate change
213
, terrorism
214
, ecological degradation, polarization of income and loss of culture. It is not burdened with a syndrome of trying to save the world; it is trying to remake the world.’ This shows signs of groups responding to perceived problems in society. It is, however, a typical anthropogenic view. It is not really ‘trying to remake the world’. It is ‘trying to remake human society and its impact on its life support, the ecosystem’ 215
. The aim here is to spell out that this estimable objective would be appreciably enhanced by understanding of the intrinsic influence of the operations of civilization on the ecosystem. That is, the irrevocable mechanistic decimation behavior that a wise society can only, at best, mitigate slightly now.
20

Most people have neither the time nor the inclination to delve too deeply into what is really happening, yet. The ‘Why and What’ Chapter is intended to provoke thought, so motivation to read on and think through the novel view following
217
. I say novel
218
because I am unaware of any previous presentation of the Dependence on Nature
Law by any of the Cassandras 219 and Realists 220 even though they address some of the issues and the likely consequences
221
. I discuss many aspects of the operation of the ecosystem from an unconventional perspective. I often categorize these aspects as being
‘positive’, ‘negative’, ‘neutral’ or ‘bivalent’ 222 to help appreciation of the realistic, rather than idealistic, impact.
We have been conditioned to see only the positive side of many aspects of modern society. It will help you to adjust your mindset by considering some of the bivalent operations. I list some here and examine them further later on.
 electricity is regarded as a marvelous invention
224
because it has enabled tremendous progress in the operation of civilization. However, the widespread use of fossil fuels to generate it has instigated irreversible climate change
225 that is having profound deleterious effects we now have to cope with using diminished natural bounty capital
226
.
 the rapid build up of know how through learning and education using the developing infrastructure
227
and information systems
228
have been both constructive
229
and destructive. It has contributed appreciably to a higher
(material) standard of living for many
230
but has facilitated the decimation of the ecosystem.

 automation has been touted as one of the major advances in the past century.
It has certainly contributed to a higher standard of living but has also enabled the encouragement of the ‘throw away’ society, so to an unnecessarily higher rate of depreciation of natural capital. knowledge of health measures and the provision of adequate food
231
, potable water and sanitation systems have enabled a major improvement in life expectancy in developed communities in recent centuries. These improvements have been coupled with the greatly expanded food production measures to make living easier for many. This humanitarian gain, however,
21





 has compounded the fact that there are now too many humans
232
consuming too much of what is left of the natural bounty capital at too high at rate. starvation and lack of water 233 , wars 234 , epidemics 235 , industrial pollution 236 and natural disasters
237
continue to take a toll of human life
238
and cause much sorrow yet they have also constrained over population to a significant extent
239
. cheap oil
240
and the development of cars
241
, ships
242
and airliners
243
powered by this fuel has given society great mobility and the ability to transport vast amounts of goods great distances
244
. The operation of modern society is now very dependent on these forms of transportation without having the long term means to provide the fuel
245
or manufacture the machines or come up with practical alternatives. The faulty die has been cast! airline travel is having a major impact on the lives of many by way of business and tourism. It does this at a tremendous eco cost
246
, only some of which is widely recognized. Their impact on climate change is causing concern but their contrails appear to also have appreciable impact on biodiversity
247
. many people are dependent on the fact that fossil fuels have subsidized the production, transportation and storage of food. This has led to over eating amongst the well off so related health problems
248
. The coming recession is likely to foster the decline of fast food and the growth of home vegetable gardens so improving health. the emerging oil supply crisis, and the consequent reduction in food supply
249
, will make life appreciably physically harder for many yet it will also foster widespread understanding of how society is using up the natural bounty. This will help wiser use of what is remaining. It will encourage re-localization and the sense of communities working together to meet basic requirements. High material standard of living could well give way to better quality of life. The forced reduction in the current wasteful consumerism will then be to the benefit of unborn generations.
22






 the looming scarcity of oil is precipitating the production of biofuels 250 at the cost of food production
251
. It is a classic case of the easing of one predicament 252 exacerbating another, like malnutrition. The term ‘biofuel’ is common but a misnomer. ‘agrofuel’ is used henceforth. the knowledge of how to find, extract and use raw materials, including the fossil fuels, to aid nature in the production of food is viewed as a marvelous achievement
253
. There are now many millions of people dependent on artificial diets at a time when famine is looming for billions
254
and there are now few who really understand and practice sustainable food production in the depleted soil
255
. It is ironical that urban waste management systems do a good job of throwing valuable soil
256
nutrients into lakes, rivers and seas that cannot use them productively 257 ! the current tendency to produce transportation fuels
258
from biomass is exacerbating the insufficiency of food production
259
to meet human needs
260
. the great increase in the number of scientists combined with the tremendous improvement in information gathering and processing capabilities has enabled much useful innovation of means of using natural resources but has also brought to light the dangerous instigation in civilization of deleterious measures due to past and existing misunderstandings of how the ecosystem really works. The past belief in scientific certainty is now being overwhelmed by uncertainty amongst the informed about the merits of many operations of civilization. many products have been introduced that have eased living and developed life style but have also polluted soil, groundwater and the air to the detriment of the health of all creatures, including humans
261
. the information revolution has vastly increased access to knowledge for a high proportion of the global community but its dependence on the continuing availability of exhaustible natural capital poses a major resilience predicament 262 . It has also strengthened the ability of the disadvantaged to undermine the advantages of the seemingly powerful elite.
23



 advances in technology have contributed to a much higher material standard of living in many communities but they have also fostered the false belief that this progress is sustainable for future generations even though the availability of the materials is declining. the ability of industry to be profitable because of wise use of investment
263 together with personal and material resources for transient production is worthwhile only if the irreplaceable eco cost is really justified.
Inflation is generally regarded, particularly by governance and business, as a bad development to be fought with fiscal policy. In actual fact, it is a sound reactionary measure for discouraging consumption, especially of stuff, so slowing down natural capital depreciation. It contributes to buying time to adapt to the inevitable powering down although it puts the greatest stress on the least able.
Society is slowly learning that innovations have both pros and cons, not necessarily measured by money
264
that should have been carefully evaluated and weighed up before
implementation. That is, the precautionary principle should have been instigated centuries
ago. It is too late to undo the irreparable harm that many of these innovations have done.
We will just have to power down.
Natural laws
266
are formalizations of what inevitably happens in operations
267
, natural and synthetic
268
. The role of the Laws of Thermodynamics
269
is often discussed in scientific examinations of what happens in the ecosystem, albeit confusingly at times
270
. I point out below that a necessary precursor for a dissipative process acting according to
the Second Law is the establishment of the potential
271
. This precursor is called here the
Fourth Law
272
. It is a generative process that can lead to an event that activates the
Second Law process 273 . The Fourth Law 274 followed by Second Law covers the life process 275 , so I call it the Life Axiom 276 . This is to differentiate lifed operations from the complementary cyclic ones, as identified by the Cycle Axiom 277 . Cyclic operations also consist of Fourth Law followed by Second Law processes but the state of the system at start and end of the cycle are the same
278
whereas a life goes from seed through to remains. The operation of Gaia
279
is characterized by a combination of Life Axiom
280
and
24

Cycle Axiom operations
281
. The operation of the Body of civilization, however, is characterized by Life Axiom operations only. This is a crucial point in establishing that the Body of civilization is a terminal cancer
282
on Gaia. We have not been able to produce any operations that follow the Cycle Axiom
283
! This means that the Life Axiom characterizes the unsustainable development of the Bodies of global and regional civilizations
284
. On the other hand, the Restoration Axiom characterizes natural and synthetic remedial operations 285 . The fact that synthetic operations are all lifed leads to the
Consequence Axiom that, with the
Freedom Axiom , means that civilization is
misguidedly going down an unsustainable track. Society, in the main, lacks the guidance provided by awareness of the Dependence on Nature Law and the destructiveness of the introduced Life Axiom systems.
I introduce the Fourth Law in recognition of the necessity for a generative process to establish the potential for a dissipation process to occur. The circumstances governing the occurrence of the Fourth Law need to be clarified in view of the fact that the generative process is not generally mentioned in discussions of energy flow. The flow of
energy from insolation is commonly expressed as a manifestation of the Second Law .
The generative process that occurs in the Sun is generally just implied. The potential available from the water stored in a lake means that some evolutionary geological event provided the storage vehicle
287
but the generative process in the hydrological cycle established the potential of the water.
Let there be no misunderstanding. The view of ecological reality
289
presented here is most unlikely to have any significant impact on the operation of society in the near future 290 . The conventional economic growth 291 paradigm will live on in the eyes of most
292
until the decline of our civilization becomes much more obvious
293
. Money will continue to rule 294 , despite the increasing awareness amongst the global community of its distortion of real worth 295 . Market forces 296 will continue to apply even though most now
297
act in the wrong direction
298
for the sustainability
299
of civilization and the health of the ecosystem, including the humans. It will be ‘business as usual’ 300 until it is recognizably unusual
301
!
I pointed out that you need to take an ecocentric rather than anthropogenic view of what has happened to be able to appreciate what went wrong. The Age of
25

Enlightenment emerged in the eighteenth century to foster reason as the basis of authority. The Enlightenment is often closely linked with the Scientific Revolution, for both movements emphasized reason, science, and rationality. It was based on the false premise that society had sufficient understanding of the operation of the ecosystem
303
to make sound judgement about what could be done. There is now growing awareness that there has been numerous misjudgments
304
. The growing adoption
305
of the precautionary principle is a belated attempt to limit these misjudgements. The Industrial Revolution
stemmed from the Scientific Revolution. It gave birth to the industrial energy slaves 306
(from coal, then oil, then natural gas) that enabled the explosive growth of civilization
307 but with the unintended consequence, amongst many, of climate change
308
. This mistake came about because the common anthropogenic view did not take into account the fact that all human materialistic activities are dependent on using the ecosystem. Reason and rationality are necessary
309
but the holistic scenario and implications for the future needs to be the subject
310
. Then we would not have used the irreplaceable fossil fuels so exuberantly
311
.
The value to be acquired by carefully thinking through
313
the issues raised in this essay will be the ability to make smart decisions in the difficult times ahead and possibly help others to do the same
314
. You will understand what has sent society down the wrong track, again
315
. You may well decide it is to your advantage to swim against the tide
316
.
You may appreciate the advantage of not being one of the glob being pulled by the snout in pursuit of illusory self-gratification. Possibly you will be dismayed to see many of the powerful ignore the implications of the Dependence on Nature Law and the Life Axiom because it hits below their level 317 . You will doubtless feel frustrated at your impotence
318
now but you will be better prepared to contribute to the Earthly
Revolution 319 . Anxiety and depression is becoming common as people realize that they are being duped but most do not understand what is wrong 320 . The knowledge stemming from this essay will give you a sense of purpose
321
that will wipe away the negative feelings 322 . And you will be able to obtain solace from the knowledge that it is a view of the operation of the ecosystem that will spread rapidly across the globe because it is the real reality, not one conjured up by business to make a profit
323
and promoted by our
‘leaders’ because they know no better 324
.
26

I became curious and worried about the way our civilization was headed during my career
326
, so I have researched this matter since my retirement fifteen years ago. I have been through the process of changing my mindset
327
by dint of thinking through the wide range of arguments put forward by seemingly knowledgeable people. Many of these arguments have been conflicting 328 . This research has been like putting together a gigantic jigsaw. I was bewildered at the outset by the vast array of contrary views
329
. I was initially very uncertain about what damage industrial society had done to the ecosystem in achieving the structure we are told to be so proud of. There are few novel pieces but I have tried to put them together to give a clear picture
330
. I have now finished that to my satisfaction. I was surprised because the picture was not what I had been led to believe
331
. The facts are quite clear now, however. I have therefore acquired a new mental image
332
. There is very little uncertainty about the assertion made here that the
Body
333
of our global civilization is now very unhealthy and getting irreversibly worse rapidly
334
. This Body grew rapidly over the past century by feasting on the available natural bounty unwisely. And we have done harm to the natural environment, Gaia
335
, with our lust for material stuff that will take ages to repair naturally. The Mind
336
of civilization is still largely unaware of what has been done, largely because a Tumor
337 obscures the fact. The picture is grim but I believe it should be looked at by society at large so some bright and motivated people can rise to the challenge of mitigating the decline of the Body. This change in direction could constitute the Earthly Revolution
338
.
That rising to the challenge will not happen quickly
339
but it will happen as more and more people
340
become aware
341
of what is going on. Only then may means of alleviating the decline emerge. It is a challenge 342 that will have to be faced: the sooner the better 343 .
We have a duty to limit the harm we do to Planet Earth
344
if our descendants are to enjoy what is left of the natural bounty. I must qualify that because the most fundamental fact is that there are already too many humans consuming too much and doing too much damage on this limited globe
345
. We are a plague
346
so there will be a die off
347
. The challenge is to make it less painful for all concerned 348 . I am sure readers will appreciate the irony that one of the central themes of this essay is the unrealistic Mind games played by society under the leverage of money
349
. I have endeavored to make this essay the result of a realistic mind game! I am apocalyptical
350
so it is necessary to be comprehensive in my
27

justification. There is a need to spell out why some of the common thinking is misleading.
This essay will be regularly revised and updated. It is a long-winded version due to the numerous endnotes and will be shortened as the concept is refined. Many of the endnotes are intended to show that points that may come to the mind of the reader have been considered.
The Dependence on Nature Law
The freedom of humans to be creative and innovative is acclaimed – by us. This is the positive side of the uniquely human attribute. There is, however, a negative side that is not generally recognized. We are totally dependent on the ecosystem for support.
Civilization is a parasite.
Humans employ
354
a huge range of transient
355
operations they have installed that invariably involve using and abusing natural resources. Each of these operations provides something deemed of value to society during its lifetime 356 . Each of these operations incurs an irrevocable, un-repayable ecological cost 357 . We are irreversibly drawing down on the irreplaceable natural bounty 358 .
I argue below that this Dependence on Nature Law 360
is soundly based but that society generally does not weigh up worth against eco cost
361
realistically. A natural law is the summation of what invariably happens during natural operations
362
. It is therefore appropriate to classify the dependence of the material operations of civilization on what is available from the environment
363
as a natural law. Natural operations are also dependent on what is available but generally they draw down on natural bounty income only
364
. The consequence is unnecessarily rapid degradation of our life support system, the bounty available from the ecosystem. There are too many people consuming too much
365
of what nature has left to offer
366
and then providing irrevocable toxic waste
367
.
This holistic consumption predicament
368
is exacerbated by the demands on the bounty to maintain the aging foundations of civilization. It is made worse by the gluttony of the powerful
369
. The spree is unsustainable
370
. It is a plague coming to its end. Catabolic
28

collapse can only be avoided by a wise power down
371
. Even then, there is the problem of maintaining cultural benefits even as the population declines.
The conventional economic growth
373
paradigm is based on the fallacious argument that the materialistic structure and operations of our civilization can grow without exacerbating this holistic malaise 374 , consumption of the natural bounty 375 . So growth is being fostered even as the available bounty is declining more rapidly. This is an unsustainable double whammy exacerbated by the need to look after the structure of civilization 376 .
I make it clear that the Dependence on Nature Law really does under lay the
operation and maintenance of the foundations of our civilization. Appreciation of that fact makes it much easier to understand how it is that current trends are based on false premises
378
, so are unsustainable
379
. It explains what went wrong
380
.
Widespread understanding of the cause of the holistic predicament
382
could well contribute to meeting the challenge to retain the best features of civilization whilst mitigating the decline of the foundations. The Agriculture Revolution
383
initiated the decline. The Industrial Revolution accelerated it markedly
384
. The emerging Earthly
Revolution
385
may slow the irreversible decline down, if some of society rises to the challenge
386
.
Why and what
I expect that you have often wondered what you need to do to make family and friends think through what is happening to our civilization. What can you do to arouse their curiosity sufficiently for them to take the time and effort to absorb the information that is readily available on what human activities are doing to our life support system, the ecosystem? What can you do to make them think! You know that the approach has to be short and simple but have sufficient punch to ignite their thinking. Try this. Ask them to think about why something happens and what the result is. The following examples should wake them up.
29

I breathe in air because my body needs oxygen and I exhale carbon dioxide as a result. The trees in the park and many other things, plants included, do just the opposite.
They use the carbon dioxide to grow and give me fresh air to breathe. This is but one of the wonders of nature that we can take for granted
389
.
The Yallourn 391 power station uses vast amounts of brown coal to provide electricity
392
. The coal used was produced by nature over eons and cannot be replaced.
Burning the coal produces carbon dioxide that the plants and the oceans 393 cannot cope with 394 , so the global warming 395 gets worse 396 . This power station also uses large amounts of water for cooling, in conflict with other needs, like drinking and irrigation.
Those emissions and conflicts are unintended consequences of our yearning for electricity
397
.
A global map of the overall impact that 17 different human activities are having on marine ecosystems. Insets show three of the most heavily impacted areas in the world, and one of the least impacted areas.
I drink because my body needs water for a variety of purposes, including getting rid of wastes. Rain provides the water freshened during the natural hydrological cycle
399
.
This is another of the wonders of nature
400
.
30

I fill the tank of my car so the engine can use it to move me to where ever. That consumption of fuel reduces the stock of oil remaining
402
. The global tank is running dry
403
. And we are reducing the natural resources needed to make the cars
404
. The engine spews out exhaust fumes our metabolism cannot cope with so health predicaments erupt 405 .
I eat because my body needs food to give me energy and to enable numerous other internal tasks to be carried out by the metabolism, like maintaining the blood supply to my brain. I can rely on the sun to drive the natural production of food. We do much to assist in getting the food to the table by using other natural resources but the main work has already been done, naturally. Nature could handle the wastes I produce although we deem it desirable to handle the disposal our way, using appreciable natural bounty to make and operate toilets and sewerage systems.
We use energy plus steel, concrete, asphalt, copper, aluminium and numerous other materials to build and maintain the machines and the infrastructure (buildings, roads, harbors, airports) our activities require. We have to keep opening up new mines and fields to provide these materials and sources of energy because they can only be used once. The materials cannot be truly recycled, but their lives can be prolonged by using other natural resources. The things we have built will not last long. Then we have to dispose
408
of the toxic waste
409
with the least possible damage to the ecosystem
410
.
I have a family. My replacement came about naturally!
Our standard of living is based on the provision of a vast array of goods that wear out. Most of them cannot be replaced naturally. They have to be manufactured at some eco cost. We will continue to have clothes to wear but life will be less interesting without
TV and computers, cars, container ships and airliners. They cannot be replaced naturally!
We have to make them by using some more of the declining natural resources. If we use these resources then no one else can, now or in the future.
We use a vast amount of energy every day in the operation of our society to meet our needs and wants. Energy is used in the production of goods, the provision of services and the building of facilities. It is used in our homes for cooking, lighting, heating, airconditioning and running our appliances. Energy is indispensable in the operation of our global community
414
. We personally supply a little of this energy in controlling and
31

contributing to these activities. Some of the rest is continually coming from the Sun and does a good job of driving plant growth
415
. It is reliable income. But most of our energy slaves come from stock in the ground. We draw down on this capital as though it is limitless, yet it is not. Billions of people have to do without most of these energy slaves.
This lack will trickle up to some extent, as the sources get scarcer 416 .
We have used our intelligence to devise means to make use of what nature has provided but we have not found the means to replace what nature provides 418 . And we now often have to devise means to remedy the mistakes 419 we have made 420 .
We know why we use up natural resources for everything we do and consume
422
.
There is no other source! We now need to face up to the consequences of what we have done to the provider, Gaia
423
. We now have to face up the fact that we have built up a
Body of civilization that is unsustainable
424
.
Did that make them stop and think? If not, try this. Industrial civilization has irrevocably used up a high proportion of the irreplaceable energy capital
426
. By doing this, it has produced large quantities of carbon dioxide emissions that nature cannot remove, even with the ‘help’ of industry. It now uses a high percentage of the photosynthesis energy so depleting what is available for the rest of the ecosystem and its non-human residents. As a result, we are using up our energy slaves, depriving our life support system of energy income
427
and changing the climate that rules our lives. If that does not encourage them to read on then their descendents will have to suffer the consequences without understanding of what they should best do.
Myths, misperceptions, realities, mysteries and ironies
Your mindset 429
will have to change in order to appreciate the import of the Dependence on Nature Law
430
. I start this re-education process by listing some realities and associated myths 431 and misperceptions of the way our civilization operates. I also add some mysteries and ironies as I find the current outlook of some apparently knowledgeable elements of society incomprehensible
432
and confused. Walter L. Youngquist in
‘GeoDestinies — Myths and Realities of Mineral Resources’ provides some specific
32

myths and realities. The influence of these realities, myths and misperceptions on what has happened, and the consequences, follows in this essay.
We also need to have the meaning of some terms clear in our minds. We make the distinction between material objects, the substance of operations in the body, and abstractions, what goes on in the mind 434 . We have to avoid reification, the logical mistake of treating an abstraction, money
435
, as a reality
436
. It is ironical, is it not, that you are exercising your mind in coming to grips with what is said here about what actually happens in material operations in the Body of civilization and to Gaia. No doubt your body will get tired as your mind tries to assimilate these arguments. But you will doubtless be able to refresh by eating and drinking and resting. That is what the Body of civilization will have to strive to do as the natural bounty declines! It will have to go on a diet to prolong its senescence, even though the Mind is not yet a wake up to the need!
This essay concentrates on what happens in the operation of systems in the natural and synthetic components of the ecosystem. That is the ‘reality’ of what happens. This is often very different from the general view of what happens. The term ‘actuality’ will be used to describe the general misperception of what actually happened. For example, society has actually presumed that the fossil fuels are a benevolence of nature to be used to build up and operate the Body of civilization. The reality, on the other hand, is that the use of the fossil fuels is immutably tied up with producing devastating material wastes and there really is a limited amount of these irreplaceable sources of concentrated energy.
The term ‘irreversible’ is used repeatedly to accent what invariably happens in material operations. Most people are not familiar with the physical meaning of the term.
They are familiar with a car being ‘reversible’ but this is in the direction of motion only.
The operation occurs over time and involves continually using fuel. Doubtless many think that obtaining hydrogen from water is the opposite to the production of water in a hydrogen fuel cell. It is not. The first requires an energy input while the latter produces an energy output. It is unfortunate that engineering students are instructed in how
‘reversible’ heat engines operate. This is a simplification that leads to a misunderstanding about how these engines really operate. That simplification is avoided here as the accent is on what really happens.
33

The term ‘eco cost’ has been introduced in this essay as a concept embracing the irrevocable use of natural bounty capital in the operations of the synthetic systems of civilization
439
. Eco costs cannot be realistically measured in terms of that intangible, money. There is an appreciable amount of energy analysis being carried out to provide a more realistic view of projects but that can be just as misleading as financial analysis.
Energy invariably degrades with use. That is a physical reality that makes energy analysis confusing. In addition, energy use conveys only part of what happens in an operation.
The eco cost covers all that is involved in conducting the operation. That is why it is used here to ensure that the total cost of an operation is clearly seen to be covered
440
. We measure time in terms of units like days and years even though we have little appreciation of how much time we, individually, have left. It is entirely appropriate to measure the irreversible depreciation of natural bounty capital in terms of ecos even though we do not know precisely how many ecos civilization has got left. It seems appropriate to use an estimate of global natural capital
441
of 100 ecos. It is an ethereal quantity but there is a need to recognize that it will really be limited even though the actual limit will only be apparent as it is approached. It will vary regionally due to what is available and the associated capability to use it. It would then be appropriate to describe the eco cost per annum as a percentage of the envisaged capital limit. Thus 1 eco/annum would be a rate of depreciation of 1%. This rate of decline would encourage governance and business to be more circumspect. The global natural capital has probably depreciated about 50%, mainly in recent decades
442
.
This eco cost per annum is the rate at a particular time. That is only part of the story. Every issue occurs over a period of time so the totality of what happens during the existence of the issue needs to be taken into account if its impact is to be assessed realistically. A tomato plant starts with the germination of a seed in fertile soil. It grows through the input of energy (from insolation), water and nutrients. It produces tomatoes some time later then withers and dies
444
. A wheat farmer expends appreciable amount of money and effort to sow the fields at an appropriate time 445 and then reaps the harvest of wheat, so money, after an appreciable lag. If the farmer has to borrow money to help in this process then, effectively, part of the return from the wheat goes to the bank that lent the money. The bank provided the money, the farmer provided skill and effort while
34

nature made the biggest contribution in the time required for the process to go to fulfillment.
The worth of a community is a concept developed later. It clearly should be evaluated in comparable units to eco cost so that WoEC and WA make comparative sense. A well-developed community could have a WA = 10 now but that value will rapidly decline in the future as some know how and technology become less useful as various elements of the capital become scarce 446 .
We tend to take time for granted. But the impact of time needs to be borne in mind here because it does have a major influence on many of the operations being discussed. Operations invariably entail energy usage over a period of time. That is, the energy is used at a rate that depends on the time involved. Ecological forces have stored
concentrated energy in the fossil fuels at a very low rate over a long period of time , eons.
Civilization uses this energy at a very high rate so that can only continue for a short period of time, less than two centuries
448
. Industrialization has increased the concentration level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and oceans at a very high rate so this can continue for only a short period of time before these emissions have a serious impact on the climate, which had slowly evolved to a climax before being upset by industrialization. A car can be driven at high speed (rate) for only a period of time before the fuel runs out. People welcome labor saving devices
449
because this gives them more time and energy – to do whatever.
It is hard for the masses to comprehend the reality when seemingly knowledgeable people use terms like ‘production of crude oil’. Most people associate production with an industrial process so they are inclined to believe that oil ‘production’ can continue. The ‘extraction of crude oil’ would be much clearer. The term ‘production’ is used here only when in a quote or when applying to an actual industrial production process.
Another confusing term is ‘waste’. It is common, for example, to talk in terms of the waste from crop production. This is often used to justify bio-fuel production when, in reality, using the crop waste for this purpose is actually contributing to depleting the fertility of the soil as this ‘waste’ contains valuable nutrients. There are no real wastes produced by normal natural operations, although civilization often does waste the matter
35

produced
452
! The only real material wastes
453
are produced by synthetic operations and then they are often termed toxic waste, pollution or emissions
454
. These operations also produce so-called waste heat, as do natural operations
455
, as an endemic part of the energy transformation process. So this heat is not really a waste.
There is much discussion 457 about the ‘environment’ that focuses on the natural environment and what human activities have done to it. The simple fact of the matter is that society has constructed a synthetic environment 458 that partially supplants the natural one 459 . The distinction needs to be borne in mind as the synthetic environment needs to draw down on natural capital in order to operate while the natural environment uses natural income only. The environment we live with
460
and will possibly change is the combination of the natural
461
and synthetic
462
ones that now exist.
I use ‘community’ to generalize on the group of people who live in an area, state, country or globally. I will use ‘regions’ to generalize on the area, city, state, country or global where the community lives. The community does not necessarily obtain all their natural resources nor dispose of all their toxic wastes in their region but this is where they
disrupt the biodiversity
464
and geodiversity
465
. There are circumstances, however, where localization is inappropriate. Fossil fuel burning affects the global climate and the regions most likely to be seriously affected are not those that have contributed most to GHG emissions
466
.
It is common to talk about economic growth. The dictionary identifies two meanings for ‘growth’, viz
 gradual development toward maturity
* degree of increase in size, weight, power, etc
The second definition is implied in all discussions in this essay except when the first is used in some reference. These exceptions are noted. There is still a problem with the term
‘growth’. For example, the Alberta oil sands system is producing about 1 million barrels per day (bpd). The consequential ecological damage is growing at a fast rate now as the result of these operations. That is, the normal operation of the system is causing a growth that is part of the depreciation of natural capital. The system is projected to grow in coming years to a production of 2 million bpd. The ecological damage will then be
36

growing at about twice the rate
468
. So here we have confusion because one growth is compounding another. This can be avoided by using ‘increase’ for ‘growth’ in those circumstances where the change is the consequence of normal operations. ‘growth’ then refers to what is happening to the normal operations
469
. This is an important matter of semantics due to the emphasis put on growth in many discussions. The ‘Limits to
Growth’ books use the term ‘growth’ in discussing what is happening in normal operations as well as what problems are being exacerbated by the growth in population and consumption. This manages to convey the impression that the latter growth is causing the holistic problem when it is normal operations that are unsustainable
470
.
Economic growth is generally based on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
472
, a financial measure. It includes many goods and services that cannot in any rational sense be regarded as worthwhile. It can be greatly inflated by the creation of paper money, as now. This provides many people with credit to buy stuff they really do not need but it does increase the GDP, so pleasing the powerful! The real economy is based on human know how and technology transforming natural bounty into infrastructure, industrial capital, goods and services deemed really useful to the operation of society. The real economy is not generally identified but it is here so the term ‘real economy’ is used where it is appropriate to ensure no confusion with that delusion, the intangible financial
‘economy’.
The economies are very largely driven by the endeavors of businesses to make financial profits. These intangible profits enable the recipients to consume more. ‘profit’ is misleading in a global sense because it is facilitating the loss of natural capital! There can be no real global profit. It is the classic case of privatizing profit while socializing and ecologizing losses whilst also robbing future generations of their materialistic inheritance. It is, however, quite clearly unsustainable. It is a ‘house of cards’ without firm foundations so is absolutely bound to crash – possibly very soon.
Discussion of the economy tends to refer to the situation at a particular time, like now. It is a financial measure of the rate of production, so consumption, of goods and services. It is like the speed of a car. Quoted figures for economic growth is the rate at which production has increased in recent times. It is analogous to how rapidly the car is
37

accelerating. Many of the decisions made about the operation of civilization are based on both the current situation and the expectation of what will occur. Many of these expectations are biased by erroneous financial considerations
475
. Often pronouncements about the future are based on the expectation of business as usual (BAU). Governance and business have an expectation of growth as though it is an immutable good for the community as well as them. This is because they do not understand that the growth in material consumption is speeding up the depreciation of natural capital. The term ‘real expectation’ is used in this essay to identify what can really be expected of actual operations to differentiate it from the common, often misguided, anthropogenic expectation. It helps to give an indication of what the future of the Body of civilization, and the associated society, will be. The ‘real expectation’ is that industrial civilization is undergoing its senescence.
There is appreciable confusion in discussions about global warming and its impact on the climate due to informed people using misleading terminology. The technically correct terminology used here needs to be compared with the misleading in order to clarify this issue. The ‘emission’ of greenhouse gases (GHG) really refers to the rate (speed) at which these gases are emitted into the atmosphere 477 . It is not a measure of the amount of global warming. The ‘concentration level’ of GHG in the atmosphere is indicative of the forcing that causes global warming 478 . Reducing emissions will only slow down the build up of the concentration level. The strong proposals to reduce emissions are giving misleading impressions of what that would achieve. It gives the false impression that the concentration level can be reduced by implementing measures like planting trees or burning less coal. These measures reduce the carbon flux (emission rate), not the concentration level, which cannot be reduced because the carbon sources are already pronouncedly stronger than the carbon sinks
479
.
Generally, ‘value’ and ‘worth’ are deemed to be synonymous. Both are abstractions
481
in contrast to the reality of the eco cost
482
, which entails degradation of
Gaia. It is necessary here, however, to make a distinction in order to clarify an important point. ‘value’ will be used to indicate the conventional, but artificial, financial value in the economy whilst ‘worth’ indicates the realistic worth as a Body component of the ecosystem
483
. An item is deemed here to be worthwhile
484
if its transient worth to the
38

community
485
(the credit) exceeds its irrepayable eco cost (the debit) because of the impact of intellectual energy
486
. Many activities are considered to be worthwhile even though they make no contribution to the operation of the Body
487
. Aesthetics are generally worthwhile because they make a continuing contribution to the development of community culture and life. There are, therefore, three components of the eco cost. The direct eco cost consists of the natural bounty draw down evoked in constructing, operating, maintaining and demolishing Body components in the current time frame. The prior eco cost was entailed in acquiring the intellectual energy and the tools involved in this functioning of the life of the Body component. This prior eco cost has been taken into account in the prior assessments. The eco cost of a material item will invariably
increase with time throughout its life, as it has to be maintained
488
. At any time then, there is a commitment to evoke an eco cost in the future. This may vary from a really firm commitment to one to be met if there is sufficient natural capital available
489
. The worth of the item, however, may not change during its lifetime
490
. The item is worthwhile if its worth is considered to be high compared to the actual total eco cost. It may be worthwhile because it contributes to material needs, like sustenance. It may be worthwhile if it contributes to the cultural activities that society wants and can afford while the material needs are being met. A McMansion may attract a high value but be worth very little, especially when its eco cost has risen in providing necessary maintenance. Money drives the operation of society even though its indicative value very often grossly distorts the real worth
491
. It will help to keep this matter in perspective by referring to a distortion index, the percentage by which the actual attributed ‘value’ exceeds the rational, real ‘worth’.
There is another common use of the term ‘value’. It relates to the values of society. It is what people in general regard as being good. It has changed significantly with the development of materialistic society. It has been eroded markedly with the trend from small communities to urbanization. It is appropriate to use the term ‘social values’ for this intangible. Many people have argued reasonably that social values have deteriorated with industrialization. That is, these developments have evoked a social cost.
It could be argued that as society is part of the ecosystem this social cost is part of the eco cost. That would be a mistake. Eco costs are tangible and irrevocable. Social costs are
39

intangibles and are not irrevocable
493
. There are numerous organizations that rue the deterioration in social values and are fostering their improvement by re-localization and other sound measures. The deterioration in social values is clearly reversible so the social costs can be reduced
494
. This reversibility contrasts with the irreversible materialistic eco costs, the primary subject of this essay 495 .
There is appreciable controversy about what constitutes assets as the financial market show signs of unraveling 497 and recession looms 498 . Money in the bank or in investment funds, stocks, houses and yachts all appear dubious. The traditional hedges against inflation, gold and silver, are really intangible assets that have a historical backing. The real assets in the difficult times ahead will be continuing access to basic needs
499
, having useful skills and knowledge, membership of resilient communities, cohesive family and friends and a sound understanding of the real place of society in the operation of the eco system
500
. It is ironical, however, that having financial assets to supplement income will still be a requirement for obtaining many of the essentials in difficult times. Most people will find it hard to accept that their financial assets were really over valued. They will find it difficult to accept that they really did not earn a luxuriant retirement
501 . They will find it hard to accept that ‘economic growth’ really means degrading the life support system with its consequential impact on social diversity.
It is common for people to talk in terms of what they can ‘afford’. They are talking in terms of that spurious indicator, money. The reality is that the ecosystem can only afford a very limited human population with a frugal lifestyle. Ideally the remaining natural bounty will be shared out more fairly amongst a much smaller population. These people would ‘deserve’ their share of the bounty by contributing to worthwhile operations of the ecosystem rather than simply being parasites
503
.
It is ironical that the GDP is a measure that gives weight to both needs and wants of the community. So there are really two components to economic growth. The ‘needs’ can clearly be worthwhile, so what the community can afford. The ‘wants’ often entail an eco cost that in any rational sense is not worthwhile. Yet, there are many people who take pride in showing off their ‘wants’, even as their outlook contributes unnecessarily to the devastation of the eco system.
40

It is common in financial circles to estimate the return on investment (ROI) of a proposal. We know that it often has a big impact on decisions but there is no need to examine its impact in this essay because it is such a farcical measure for realistic use of the limited natural resources
506
. We are interested in what really happens, not on beliefs based on that intangible, money. However, it is noteworthy that business people try to anticipate the outcome of a proposal and factor that into their investment decisions. They have the expectation that the project will provide a profit. On the other hand, there has been no attempt to factor the depletion of, for example, the fossil fuels into the development of industrialization! This entails the irrevocable depreciation of elements of natural capital. The divestment in using up these extremely valuable sources of industrial energy has not been given due consideration - yet
507
. The common view amongst governance and business is that reactive prices will give sufficient warning of what has already happened!
Many of those concerned people looking at the impact of industrial energy on the operation of civilization consider net energy
509
and the associated measure energy return on energy invested (ERoEI)
510
. They regard it as a better measure of what is physically sound than the financial cost
511
. There is appreciable confusion about how it is defined
512 and how to extract meaningful information from this measure
513
. It is of limited value even when clearly defined as it deals with energy without considering the associated material nor the use of the energy supplied. For example, considering the ERoEI of a coal-fired power station does not take into account the harmful emissions nor the use, wise or unwise, made of the electricity produced. This very dubious measure has been used for the fossil fuels for years to provide a sound indication of the energy required to supply the user. It has, however, very little relevance to the subject being covered here
514
.
I believe that worth over eco cost (WoEC) 515 is a more meaningful indicator for the reasons given above 516 . This ratio alone is not sufficient as the magnitude of the eco cost, so an irreversible draw down of natural capital should also be taken into account. Know how and technology do not affect this direct cost but make a major contribution to the worth
517
. In the case of the power station, the worth is based on the amount of electricity supplied during its operating life while the eco cost is the amount of natural bounty used in its construction, operation, maintenance and demolition, together with damage to
41

biodiversity
518
and geodiversity
519
and any consequential remedial activity. Using WoEC would encourage a realistic assessment of what industrial capital is worthwhile even though both components are not easy to quantify. The worth, in particular, is very context dependent. After all, the electricity produced by the power station may be very wastefully used. But WoEC is still a realistic indicator of the contribution of an item to the operation of the Body
520
although it does not take into account the fact that the natural
capital is exhaustible and the demand s on it for a number of purposes increases even as it
depreciates. The WoEC of a community may be high now but it is bound to decrease.
It would be much more realistic for society to adopt a measure that could be called Gross Domestic Decline (GDD). It would be an estimate of the remaining available natural capital. It would require regular, probably annual, updating to reflect increases due to improvements in the measures to use elements of the capital together with the draw down due to the eco cost of operations. A reduction in GDD rate would then be a realistic indicator of progress to be lauded by one and all. GDD would also serve as a reminder that it is better to do than to have.
WoEC covers the worth of an item in its life time . The issue of more concern here
is the direct eco cost of the operation of a community in its normal day-to-day functioning. This is the summation of the direct eco cost of a vast multitude of items, including those meeting the essential needs, like food, of its populace. The prior eco cost would have been accumulated. The commitment for future costs is implied. The aggregated worth of these items would then provide a value of WoEC indicating how well the community was using natural bounty in its current every day operations.
Consider the situation with respect to two communities, A and B, and the eco costs they evoke in a year of operation. Suppose A is an advanced community so the outcome of these operations make really worthwhile contributions to the comfort and well being of its society, so W is high. On the other hand, B is an undeveloped community without the expertise available in A so the outcome of operations is not nearly so worthwhile in the view of its populace, so W is low. The eco cost entailed in the operation of A would doubtless be appreciably greater than that of B. That is, A would be making a bigger contribution to the depreciation of global natural capital, so the consequential development of the harsh response of Gaia to the cancer. This reality of the
42

imposition of A compared to B is in marked contrast to the common view of the value of these communities. For example, the well off in cities tend to look down on the residents of old, established rural communities when the reality is that the former are the major parasites
524
eroding the future. These communities should be judged on their WoEC rather than W alone. Western countries have used their stronger exosomatic tools to use the fossil fuels at a faster rate – and to make a greater contribution to climate change and general pollution, so their W and EC are both high but WoEC is now relatively low. They have a higher standard of living than what is really affordable, bearing in mind the commitment to the environment as well as to future generations. There are, however, communities that have been slow to ‘progress’ so their relative eco cost is low while their worth has been moderate, so their WoEC is high. New Zealand and Tasmania are two examples that have received some recognition of their advantage. Doubtless there are others. But these good examples are overwhelmed by the multitude of mega cities that are rampant parasites.
It is a common argument that the increase in GDP/(energy used) in recent decades is an indicator of how well the U.S. economy has progressed under the thrust, partly, of cheap
526
oil. It is a fallacious argument for a number of reasons. GDP is not a sound indicator of worth as it includes the production of unnecessary, wasteful goods, the construction of unnecessary and wasteful factories and large houses and the provision of unnecessary and wasteful services. It does not realistically cost the draw down of natural capital
527
. It does not realistically cost the impact of the toxic wastes produced on the operation of the ecosystem
528
. It does not cost the degradation of geodiversity
529
and
biodiversity 530
. The distortion index has grown progressively worse 531 . Secondly, the denominator in that measure, the (energy used), represents only part of the eco cost entailed. It does not take into account the impact of associated toxic waste production 532 or degradation of diversity. The most hideous failing, however, is that it does not indicate that the community is irrevocably drawing down on its irreplaceable natural bounty capital 533 . The argument conveys to the masses the false impression 534 that the real material wealth
535
of the U.S. is improving
536
. The reality is that it is entropy that is growing
537
.
43

‘wealth’ can also have misleading connotations. It is generally regarded as being synonymous with affluence and abundance as being indicative of the position of a community at a particular time. Civilization can be regarded as being wealthy due to the growth in its capability, particularly in recent centuries. But, as pointed out in this essay, this wealth has been acquired by drawing down on natural capital so it can be said to have been acquired by borrowing from the ecosystem. This loan cannot be repaid!
Civilization has no income other than from nature 539 used to support basic operations.
The common meaning for ‘wealth’ is used throughout this essay with the implication that real wealth is transitory. Financial wealth, on the other hand, is an intangible quantity that is subject to the games played by those who do not need to worry about having their basic needs satisfied.
It is common for the term ‘wealth’ to refer to paper wealth 540
, like cash, bank accounts and stocks, and to material wealth, like owning a factory, a McMansion or some land
541
. Part of the worth of a McMansion lies in skills and tools used in its construction with the rest being the natural resources consumed, so the irrecoverable eco cost which is generally not realistically accounted for. The perceived value
542
of the house will generally be appreciably greater than it’s worth 543 . ‘real wealth’ 544
will be used here where the eco cost and worth are realistically taken into account. It is a hypothetical value used to present the argument that follows. This real wealth is then a measure of the contribution of human intelligence
545
to the development and operation of the material
Body of civilization
546
and to the continuing development of societal culture
547
at the expense of using natural bounty. The development of the gross real substantive wealth of the Body is transient 548 so needs to be maintained by further drawing down of natural bounty capital whilst it is still available. The qualifier gross is used here as it relates to realistic perceptions of the development of civilization – without taking into account what it has done to the eco system. Net real substantive wealth is the value when this eco cost is taken into account
549
. Real substantive wealth is an inherently unsustainable state, as the capital will eventually run out. Its development has entailed entropic growth 550 of the eco system. There is a major challenge to maintain some of the cultural real wealth
551
as the substantive wealth of the Body declines because the available natural capital to maintain it is also declining. Ecological forces will exert much more control on
44

developments than the economic forces that have fostered the generation of this temporary substantive wealth.
Animals consume natural bounty income to meet their operating needs and wants
553
. Any left over can be used to build up their real wealth temporarily
554
. Bears do this by building up body fat to meet their needs over hibernation. This part of their wealth is generally transient insurance against future paucity of income. Hunter-gatherer humans did this for eons 555 . Then humans began to exhibit their fundamental difference from other animals. They learnt to draw down on natural bounty capital using know how they had acquired and tools they had invented, but, unfortunately, often without appreciation of the consequences
556
. They started using agriculture
557
to provide more food. This did not increase their real wealth much
558
although it allowed the population to increase and
it enabled people to spent more time and energy
559
in facilitating progress
560
. This RFM enabled communities to build up from settlements to villages to towns to cities. It allowed the build up of know how
561
. It allowed diversification of the skills of individuals. These build ups contributed to the growth of the real (gross substantive
562 plus cultural) wealth of the community. But it entailed a more rapid draw down of natural bounty capital. It came at an appreciable but largely unrecognized eco cost. Nevertheless, gross real substantive wealth was doubtless increasing - temporarily. The rate of growth of the gross real substantive wealth has been appreciably greater than the rate of depreciation of natural capital despite the inherent inefficiency of the transformation process. Human know how combined with technology has made a worthwhile use of the natural capital consumed. The transformation is a process that produces vast amounts of real toxic wastes 563 as well as waste heat. This depreciation of natural capital is the debit side of the ledger that Homo sapiens have largely ignored in their progress to ultimate bankruptcy. They do not appreciate that this ‘gross real substantive wealth’ is an oxymoron because, in reality, it stems fundamentally from robbing Gaia. The net real substantive wealth is appreciably less but society at large does not realize that fundamental fact 564 . This growth of gross real wealth process has been greatly accelerated by the growth of know how, the construction of more powerful tools and the exploitation of stored materials, particularly those that are the source of the industrial energy
565
that provides so much of the power that drives civilization today. There is now appreciable
45

gross real substantive wealth
566
, especially in the developed countries in addition to the real cultural wealth
567
. But the global net real substantive wealth is probably now close to declining even as the depletion of natural capital stifles operational, maintenance
568
, replacement
569
, consequential
570
and remedial
571
activities in many regions
572
. The state of affairs is summed up for Australia in Figure xx .
It will help in appreciation of this concept to talk in terms of the Worth Advantage
(WA). This is a measure of the contribution of human expertise 574 to the worth of an installation that evokes an irrecoverable eco cost for construction, operation and maintenance. For example, a skyscraper evokes an appreciable eco cost that gradually
increases during its life time . There would have been an appreciable prior eco cost
entailed during the acquisition over many years of the knowledge, skills and equipment
575 used during its lifetime. The exosomatic tangible and intangible tools of human society enable this Worth Advantage, even when the outcome is not intrinsically wise. It does not have the degree of self-organization and self-regulation found in natural systems. WoEC is a realistic estimate for an item over its life or for the operation of a community. WA is a measure of what has actually happened. The two are equal only in limited circumstances.
This brings up a characteristic of real wealth that is fundamentally different to
(financial) wealth as it commonly applies. A person who owns a McMansion will generally have sufficient income from work or investment to maintain the house, so its contribution to the person’s wealth
577
. The owner has the expectation of having the necessary income to maintain this asset. On the other hand, the real substantive wealth of the house will invariably decline, as there is no possible income. It will just age naturally.
Renovations may increase the worth of the house but at an eco cost. The contribution of
Sydney to the net real wealth of Australia is tending to increase due to the contribution of intellectual energy to its growth but this is being offset by the natural capital depreciation with no real expectation of counterbalancing income.
There is another, but unconventional, ecocentric, way of looking at wealth. It will simplify this examination by considering the global region, as its wealth is not affected significantly by extraneous factors - as yet
579
. The real wealth at any time consists of the sum of the tangible material and the intangible functional and cultural. Let us now trace
46

how these have changed over millennia up to today. The cultural wealth
580
has grown tremendously through experience, learning and the improved means of communication
581
. These improvements have had tremendous impact on the substantive wealth
582
and functional wealth
583
. Some has enabled wise transformation of natural material capital (wealth) to temporary synthetic substantive wealth 584 while much has been unwise
585
. The transformation has been carried out because the synthetic form of materials has been deemed more useful to society 586 than the natural form 587 even though it is inefficiently produced and has to continually draw down on the natural capital for maintenance during its temporary existence and possible replacement
588
. The crucial point is the combined material wealth has declined
589
through the transformation as the stock of exhaustible materials has declined, damaging toxic wastes have been generated and the environment has been devastated. So the combination of the substantive Body of civilization and of Gaia, which is the eco system, has actually got poorer rapidly in recent centuries. Some would argue that this decline of the natural wealth has been offset by the generation of the synthetic wealth so the combined material wealth has actually increased. That argument is illogical because the transformation invariably causes what was permanent natural wealth to be inefficiently transformed to temporary synthetic wealth with the production of waste material and heat. The transformation process does
lead to the reduction in the combined material wealth over time . But the functional and
cultural wealth has increased with time. This suggests that the combined wealth could well have increased with time. That is a very plausible view that is widely supported.
Many say that this illustrates the progress of civilization as the rapid increase in functional and cultural wealth has far out weighed the slow decrease in material wealth.
But it is illogical
590
. It is a static view rather than dynamic. It looks at the short term now but not at the logical future trends. It presumes that the natural wealth can continue to decline when that is not possible. Natural material wealth cannot be usefully transformed when there is very little available
591
. So that common view is not really plausible. The continuing growth of the material wealth of civilization is not sustainable. The continuing growth of the functional wealth is, therefore, also not sustainable
592
. The cultural wealth is also likely to collapse, as people have to face up to the crumbling of the foundations.
This way of looking at the situation is completely consistent with the scenario brought
47

out in this essay, even though it is very different to that commonly held. The different terminology and logic make no difference to the conclusion about the material wealth. It does not provide any real indication of the development of the cultural wealth other than some of it is spurious because it has facilitated activities that have clearly been not worthwhile 593 . However, the judgment that stems from the other arguments on this subject in this essay is that the cultural wealth is grossly over-estimated. The Brain has made many mistakes 594 on what can be reasonably be transformed and these have been accentuated by the thrusts of the Tumor for their own financial wealth. The Tumor can be expected to continue to dominate the cancerous growth because they have the leverage.
Real wealth is implicit judgments of the worth of society built up by know how and tools using up natural bounty. It is a measure of what society has achieved and WA represents it here
596
. Financial wealth, however, is now largely a paper measure partly built up on debt. It has a gross distortion index
597
but, ironically and disastrously
598
, it is what actually determines many of the decisions made about how to use what is left of the natural bounty. Financial wealth
599
is often used to purchase goods and services
600
that evoke an appreciable eco cost yet are not worthwhile in any rational sense. Financial wealth is an intangible in which spurious wealth
601
vies with real wealth. That is, the
(financially) wealthy have unfairly contributed and will continue to contribute to a significant irrevocable draw down of the natural bounty. The wealthy have contributed more than their fair share to the demise of the materialistic foundations of their community and its social values
602
! The most unfortunate aspect of financial wealth is that it is an RFM
603
. It has no self-regulation
604
. It is like a rapidly growing weed for which there is no weed killer and no means for altruistic elements of society to do some weeding! There is, essentially, little recognition that this distorted sense of wealth is accelerating the trend to bankruptcy. So there will be no significant response until this edifice crashes in the near future 605 as it is based on nothing more substantial than the words of crooks
606
and the delusions of financiers
607
. The distortion index will plummet because there is nothing to really hold it up 608 .
The Dow Jones Index represents an intangible indication of the presumed cultural and material wealth of the U.S. Its largely exponential growth over the past century does not take into account the declining natural bounty capital, so is a delusion that continues
48

to drive society towards self-destruction. Thus, the DJI grossly over rates the real wealth of the U.S. This malfeasance is greatly accentuated by the financial games that foster the belief in paper wealth
610
. It led to the collapse of the stock market in 1929 that precipitated the Great Depression. It has created a false impression of the growth of the real wealth of the American economy since 1980 so has created a bubble that now shows signs of bursting
611
. This time, however, the problem is accentuated by the fact that ecological reality is catching up with the delusion about real material wealth 612 . This delusion about the past wealth of the American economy is typical about what is now happening to the economies of many developing countries although so belated that they are most unlikely to successfully emulate America before reality crashes their house of cards.
It is common to talk about ‘rich’ and ‘poor’ countries. This carries financial connotations but the reality is that the former have built up both physical
614
and mental
615 capabilities that enable them to draw down on the natural bounty much more rapidly than the latter. They have more leverage in the competition to degrade the life support system and they use it exuberantly
616
! There has been the tendency to go too far
617
in that regard.
It is more realistic to use the terms ‘strong’ and ‘weak’ in the context of this essay. That is not to imply that strength is virtuous!
It is also common to regard ‘assets’ and ‘liabilities’ as indicators of future prospects for the holder, whether country, community or person. Financial assets provide a capability to impact future decisions almost regardless of the worth of the resulting operations. Skills and the associated machinery are assets that are more likely to result in worthwhile operations. Nature provides a lot of material assets, like mountains, forests and rivers, which do not have liabilities. The Body of civilization has constructed many material assets, like airports and freeways, at irrecoverable eco cost but they are also liabilities in that there is a continuing commitment to use natural capital for their operation and maintenance.
It is common to talk about the ‘progress’ of aspects of society. That is very often a misleading view as this progress can be the cause of a degree of degradation of the ecosystem in addition to the irreversible use of natural resources. Where ‘progress’ is used here it has the common, but often misleading, meaning. ‘improvement’ is used for
49

the realistic assessment of what has happened to the operation of the ecosystem, including civilization. However, realistic improvement in the operation of the Body of civilization does come at an eco cost while improvement in the operation of Gaia due to human decided actions is extremely rare
620
.
‘information’ commonly refers to an intangible that can be used in making decisions about actual tangible operations. It can also refer to information available to humans that has no impact on substantive operations. It is useful for these discussions to clearly identify the information that is actually used in making decisions in natural or synthetic systems so the term ‘operational information’ is employed 622
.
We will be discussing the operations of the biosphere. That is, what happens to material objects. ‘biosphere’ is a common term but a bit of a misnomer as the bio implies living organisms whereas we also include non-living aspects of natural operations. For example, whether the Nile is in flood
624
can be a relevant issue in some specific discussions. The term ‘ecosystem’ is used as a reminder that we are examining the holistic scenario, not just biological operations. It is a reminder of the interdependence of these operations, natural and the synthetic ones installed by humans, as well as the influence of biological operations on the geosphere and vice versa. We, naturally, focus on the most significant but endnote the others when relevant.
The operations of the ecosystem
626
result in the building of structures
627
, production of goods
628
and the provision of services
629
. This is common terminology but needs some clarification here. ’structures’, ‘goods’ are material objects. They have substance. They are provided by nature or constructed from materials provided by nature using energy also provided by nature 630 and skills provided by humans. Some ‘services’ can be intangibles
631
. They do not have substance. This does not mean that they are not worthwhile in the view of humans. In fact humans often regard services 632 more highly than many goods, especially in the developed countries. We are dealing here, however, only with those operations of substance
633
.
The operations of civilization are invariably based on using natural resources 635 and result in the generation of wastes that degrade the environment
636
. These operations
often also disrupt biodiversity
637
and geodiversity
638
. The development of civilization has also encompassed a changing social diversity
639
. Urbanization has been one major
50

result
640
. Consequently, the global civilization is a parasite
641
. These operations entail an un-repayable
642
eco cost. The bounty
643
provided by Gaia is irrevocably decreasing due to the three components of eco cost
644 . Liebig’s Law of the Minimum tends to apply so oil depletion is likely to be the leading factor in the U.S. and other developed countries while water 645 supply problems 646 head the ratings in some other countries 647 . It is an aid to getting the situation in perspective to view the bounty as comprising both capital
648
and income 649 . We can use the income continually, generally for providing sustenance, without evoking much of an associated eco cost 650 . But drawing down on the natural capital to meet needs and wants
651
invariably evokes a substantial eco cost
652
.
A kangaroo evokes a small eco cost, mainly from income, whilst living, and then returns most to the soil on dying
654
. Communities can evoke a greater eco cost with an appreciable draw down on the capital, with human skills accentuating the worth of the
Body, only so long the natural bounty lasts
655
. The standard of living that is deemed justified depends on the available bounty and the policy with respect to the rights of future generations
656
. Many communities have a standard far in excess of this and can be regarded as being gross parasites
657
. Those communities, generally indigenous ones, having a low material standard of living
658
are virtually non-parasitic
659
.
While global civilization is a parasite in that it is totally dependent on using the natural bounty available from Gaia for its operations, many wastefully, there are communities that are preys
661
rather than predators
662 . I use the terms ‘predator’ and
‘prey’ to refer to where material resources are concerned. ‘exploiters’ and ‘exploited’ refers to where humans take advantage of others. This essay concentrates on the operation of the body of civilization and Gaia, so the relation between the predators and the prey, but the behavior and misbehavior of humans naturally impinges on these operations.
There is a historical trend for predatory communities 664 to feed on the preys 665 .
This cannot continue to grow
666
. The predators will tend to become cannibalistic
667
as the preys have less to feed on 668 . Big Business 669 is inherently a predator and its activities have widened with trade globalization
670
. Propelled by competition
671
and the profit
672 incentive, Big Business
673
often uses unsound measures
674
to produce goods they can
51

market to gullible consumers
675
. Many of them will founder as circumstances erode their particular market.
We are going to be considering the impact of human activities on the operations of the ecosystem. We need to be clear then about the nature of these operations. Consider
what humans do during their life time s. They will be parasites
677 whilst young yet gaining intellectual energy
678
by learning and experience. They may possibly appear to be a contributor during their working life by applying their knowledge to producing something presently deemed of value 679 to the community. Real contributors, however, are those who do something that is really worthwhile
680
. This productive period will be followed by another parasitic
681
period in retirement
682
. Let us consider the totality over their lives. They can be categorized as parasites
683
or contributors
684
or neutral
685
. There are very few individuals who make sufficient contribution to the operation of civilization or the eco system to cover the eco cost they entail for the supply of their living essentials, the building and operation of their home and office, the traveling they do by car and plane and the many other activities they engage in to bolster their self-esteem. Yet the financial system is so biased that these parasites
686
can retire well off financially
687
. This gives them the ability to draw down on the natural bounty at an unreasonable rate. It allows them to participate unknowingly in the senescence of civilization.
Turning now to the myths in society. The most pervasive myth is that we humans are such a unique species
689
that we have the right
690
to reproduce at will
691
. The reality is that there is a limit to the human population that the natural resources of the ecosystem,
Planet Earth, can support. There are already far too many humans on this planet
692
for continuing support from the available bounty. A population die-off with associated affluence destruction
693
and build disintegration
694
is inevitable. The capability of the ecosystem to support the human population is often termed the carrying capacity 695 . It has decreased appreciably in the past century 696 and its decline is accelerating, as illustrated in Figure xx
697 . The use of the term ‘overshoot’ is misleading 698
as the operation of civilization has been inherently degrading the ecosystem for millennia although the rate has grown exponentially in the past century.
There is the myth that we have been so clever in implementing the Green
Revolution that feeding this population will not lead to a major predicament. The reality
52

is that we use a large amount of natural bounty capital to temporarily enable some
700
of this population to be gluttons but many more suffer from malnutrition and even starvation because they do not have access to this subsidized food.
There is a myth that humans are in control
702
of operations
703
. The reality is that we can affect only some of the natural operations although our decisions 704 do control most of the operation of the Body of civilization to a degree
705
. Society has utilized the fossil fuels in roughly controlled building up the Body, but with uncontrolled devastation of the eco system.
"The Earth is a blue ball covered with a very thin layer of lacquer, within which the air, water and living beings exist," said the former US presidential candidate Al Gore at the Live Earth Concert. "This fragile layer is all we have. It is our only home - and we owe it to our children and our children's children to protect it." This view implies we have the knowledge and means to protect the ecosystem when all we have managed to do so far is destroy it. His statement would have been more realistic if he had said, "This fragile layer is all we have. It is our, and our fellow creatures, only home - and we owe it to our children, our children's children and all other creatures to stop devastating it so rapidly."
The powerful have such a belief in the ability of civilization to manage natural bounty that they tussle for control of what remains without seeming to understand the long-term implications of fostering the plundering
707
. This myth is inhibiting the emergence of the pragmatists who are fostering the facing up to the materialistic realities.
There is a myth that education is a major component in the fostering of the well being of society and, by implication, the ecosystem, its host. A major component of the educational program is the transfer of knowledge to the young. That presupposes that the knowledge being transferred contains a degree of wisdom! That presupposition does not withstand any degree of rational scrutiny, as this essay shows. Society has become addicted to using up the remaining natural bounty and worries little about its legacy.
Society glorifies its achievements and ignores the costs. Is this the ill-conceived message we really want to pass on?
There are, of course, much knowledge, know how and many skills that are worth passing on. The most worthwhile of these, the understanding of the impact of civilization on the operation of the eco system is scarce and its standing has to be
53

urgently upgraded in order to ease the inevitable powering down
710
. On the other hand, there is nothing to be gained by teaching the young the materialism fetish when the reality is that the material resources are declining. Education could well do with a major change in direction.
The myth that money controls what actually happens
712
has grown exponentially
713
in recent centuries. It has hastened the disconnection between most people in Western countries and many in the developing countries from the natural goods and services 714 they are really reliant on 715 . The reality is that the un-regulated control 716 provided by that abstraction, money, enables many to unknowingly and temporarily waste nature’s benevolence and so leave a dreadful legacy. The reality is that the ecosystem will inevitably exercise control on the Body of civilization. The developing shortage of oil and the impact of climate change are just two symptoms that even the financial markets
717
can no longer ignore
718
! But the influence of money on what is activated will not die rapidly and painlessly
719
. It, rather than ecological reality, will continue to be the driving force even as its influence dissipates. The banking elite continues to promote this Ponzi edifice even as its complexity shows signs of imploding
720
. It is fascinating that this Trauma by-play is so disconnected from what is happening to the Body – for now.
There is the myth that economic growth is invariably a good. The reality is that operation of economies entails an irreversible draw down of natural bounty capital
722
, so is inherently unsustainable. The higher the standard of living, the more rapid is this draw down. The reality is that there is tangible ecological depreciation
723
rather than the intangible economic growth
724
. A rational society would be settling for a compromise between the current standard of living and future prospects. Many communities have gone way too far so they are drawing down wastefully on the global bounty and still aiming for economic growth to exacerbate the situation. They have gone over the limit to a sound economy.
There is the belief fostered by the governance and business that an economic recession 726 is bad for society. That is a particularly dangerous myth. The reality is that a recession would forcibly slow down the rate of declining of natural bounty capital. It would even encourage more people to look rationally at the wasteful use of natural
54

resources. Unfortunately, it will not be the promoters of this myth who have to suffer the consequences.
There is emerging concern in the media and amongst prominent people about what is called ‘Peak Oil’: the situation where global oil supply can no longer meet the
growing demand s
728 . They are worried that it will have a disastrous effect on economic growth in many prosperous communities. That is a myth, as it will forcibly eradicate many wasteful processes. It will encourage the use of technology that provides less harmful industrial energy. It will also act to mitigate the effect of emissions on the climate. It will encourage a thoughtful powering down by many.
There is a myth promulgated largely by rich Western countries
730
that trade globalization is beneficial as it makes better use of resources. The financial benefits accrue simply because cheap oil facilitates the necessary transportation by land, sea
731 and air
732
. The reality is that this globalization is hastening the depletion of the natural bounty by encouraging the consumption of stuff by the well off, generally at the expense
733
of the undeveloped countries
734
. Unfortunately, the developing countries are also being fooled by this myth
735
. This globalization also facilitates the spread of natural epidemics.
Our so-called leaders constantly promulgate the myth that the health of the economy is more important than the health of the planet and the species it supports
737
.
We have presumed the right to use natural resources without adequate consideration of the impact on the ecosystem
738
or, surprisingly, the legacy we will be leaving
739
. We are encouraged to build up the edifice of civilization
740
without consideration of its foundations
741
, including its life support system, Gaia. It is a myth that has inspired civilization to go down the suicidal path it cannot turn back from.
The scientific method is a human invention that many believe provides sufficient understanding of how nature works to be able to exercise control for the benefit of society. That is a myth. Science, for all the understanding it has facilitated 743 , has fostered the development of many cancerous activities 744 . Business has a prejudiced view of what science and technology have to offer 745 .
There is a common belief in the ability of technology to supplement or substitute for natural goods and services without evoking an irrecoverable eco cost. That is not so.
55

That is also a myth. The Consequence Axiom developed below shows that these innovations do invariably evoke an appreciable eco cost. That is not to say that they are not worthwhile but the cost should be recognized
747
.
Science and technology coupled with education has enabled communities to temporarily 749 add value to the material foundations constructed using some of the natural bounty. It is a myth that this type of growth is sustainable. The ability of human expertise can add worth but cannot stop the decline in the natural bounty. Belief in this myth stems partly from the belief that monetary value represents real value, partly from the belief that the irreplaceable natural capital can be used up exuberantly and partly from lack of understanding of the associated commitment to manage the ongoing impact on the ecosystem
750
.
Economics is sometimes called the ‘dismal science’
752
because it really is a numbers game that is not subject to any natural laws
753
. Despite this inherent lack of connection with material reality, it is the controlling facet of the operation of society
754
.
Policy is decided on the basis of what is expected to stimulate that myth, economic growth
755
, largely because it enables business to make an increasing profit. In reality, policy makers
756
are blindly doing their utmost to degrade the ecosystem that provides life support
757
. They do not understand that their policies are actually facilitating economic decline elsewhere and of the future of their community.
Many Cassandra’s point out the dangers of growth of the population, of the economy and of consumption. Much has been made of the findings of the Club of Rome published in the book ‘Limits to Growth’ without appreciation of the fact that these findings were, as here, that the development of civilization was intrinsically linked to the declining availability of natural capital, even though the authors did not use that term.
The Cassandra’s seem to be under the impression that growth is causing the holistic problem. That is a myth 759 . Communities irrevocably draw down on elements of the natural capital bounty to operate and maintain their civilization
760
. That is the nature of civilization. It is a cancer on Gaia. That mode of operation is unsustainable 761 . Growth has just speeded up the draw down immensely in recent centuries, so speeding up the arrival of troublesome predicaments
762
.
56

These myths about how economics, science and technology
764
contribute to a sound foundation of civilization abound because people are educated to believe in them.
We have an education system
765
that is based on the myth that humans can control the operation of the ecosystem with the mechanisms they have devised. This insidious disease has grown rapidly in recent centuries but has really got out of control with the introduction of the information
766
revolution
767
.
The most laughable myth is that we humans can focus our activities on advancing the methods 769 used by society without worrying about the real ‘bottom line’, our needs for air, food, water, energy, shelter, education, law and order and care
770
. Many people have been able to presume their availability because civilization has installed synthetic
means to temporarily meet these demand s
771
. The objective of this essay is to put that myth to rest. Reality needs to be faced. Civilization is totally dependent on using the remaining natural bounty to support its operations. Naturally, it is crucial to meet the needs but wasteful to satisfy material wants as that diminishes the ability to meet future needs, including maintenance
772
, replacement
773
, remedial
774
, consequential
775 l, adaptation
776
and mitigation
777
actions. Global entropy is growing but we can slow the growth down – with wisdom
778
.
The usual supposed indicators
780
of wealth are myths as they really represent grossly unnecessary ravaging of the ecosystem. Financial wealth
781
provides leverage to arrange for activities that draw down on the natural bounty at the expense of the future and of others. Many of these activities have little worth. A house may rapidly increase in value but its real worth invariably declines due to wear and tear. The reality is that this
‘wealth’ enables the owner to consume more of the irreplaceable bounty. The owner is able to unknowingly make a bigger contribution to the demise of civilization. That is the reality. Many of these owners will be forced to face up to this reality when rampant inflation 782 stems from the decline. Their grandiose homes will turn from seemingly assets to real liabilities in fiscal terms. Real assets are intangibles
783
while the real liabilities are tangible 784 .
A former Australian Prime Minister was talking about ‘creating wealth’. He was talking about that delusion, financial wealth. It feeds the ego of the afflicted and enables them to wastefully degrade the ecosystem by building up material wealth
786
. Yet the word
57

‘create’ manages to reinforce the view of the unthinking majority that people can actually create things – which is not so. We are totally dependent on what the ecosystem has available. We are able to ‘transform’ these materials using our skills. The best we can do is to install worth
787
into what we build from the natural resources.
There is a common myth that the rich are valuable members of society. The reality is that generally they are the worst parasites
789
. Their activities generally evoke the greatest eco cost with a limited egoistical value. They make the biggest contribution to the ageing of the Body of civilization. But the attitude of many of the bourgeois 790 tends to encourage belief in that myth
791
.
One of the basic tenets of economics
793
is that with economic growth, wealth will trickle down
794
so the workers will also enjoy an improving standard of living
795
. That has proven to be a myth
796
with the gulf between the ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’ widening for countries
797
as well as communities. The reality is that it is a measure to promote power growth.
One of the most insidious beliefs, common amongst the middle classes, is that conspicuous material possessions is indicative of personal worth. This myth is a manifestation of the affluenza virus
799
. They have caught it from the rich and it is spreading rapidly from the developed countries to an increasing number in the developing countries and a few in the undeveloped countries.
There is common belief, particularly amongst politicians and business people, that economic growth
801
represents progress. That is also a myth
802
. The reality is that economic growth
803
is largely based on using up natural capital, goods and services, at an increasingly rapid speed, so it is a retrograde step once a reasonable standard of living has been attained
804
. It is using up the natural bounty faster for lessening real benefit. It is unsustainable in the long run 805 , despite the delusion as seen by the powerful 806 . The crisis is rapidly developing, unseen by those not prepared to look at reality 807 . It is like a boil on the Body. It could burst at any time!
There is the common argument by economists and their ilk that economic growth
809
is essential in order to foster high employment
810
. This is a myth promoted by business to help profitability. Many jobs are counter-productive
811
because they foster the wasteful use of natural resources without conferring real benefits
812
. These could be
58

replaced by jobs making wiser use of these resources and providing more services
813
to the community. Many workers returning to the land, out of necessity, will also replace them
814
. In addition, doing less work would foster a better quality of living
815
, albeit with less stuff cluttering up the house
816
! It would result in a lower GDP
817
but there are many who have pointed out that this figment of the economists’ imagination is a false measure of real prosperity
818
.
There is the common belief that investment of time and money
820 is progressive.
That is often a myth because the investment can facilitate the draw down of natural resources for wasteful purposes
821
. It is one of the factors behind the destructive rampant consumerism. This investment can, however, be worthwhile where it aids the provision of the needs of society
822
.
There is a continuing influx of novel goods and services into the market place.
The myth is that these are solely the result of a number of human attributes like creativity, entrepreneurial skills
824
and science and technology. The reality is that they invariably also require the use of the limited natural bounty
825
even if that use may be in a novel fashion. These innovations are actually accelerating the decline of the resource base as well as promoting toxic waste production
826
, so drawing down on the bounty.
Their worth therefore needs to be realistically
827
assessed.
There is a developing drive for ‘recycling’ of the wastes produced by society 829
. It is encouraged in order to enable people to feel good in that they are doing something for the ecosystem
830
. That is very often a myth. ‘recycling’ of our materials invariably entails an eco cost. It can be a worthwhile exercise where it is a good substitute to using more of the raw material 831 . It is, however, never really recycling 832 . It is just a means of extending the life of the material at an eco cost. Nature engages in a lot of real recycling 833 but we cannot emulate that to a significant extent 834 . ‘refurbishing’ would be a more accurate term for what we can do with the materials we use in installations, and it is worthwhile where the eco cost is justified
835
.
There is the belief that the emerging middle classes of the Asian giants, China 837 and India
838
, can aspire to the consumptive life style they see Americans enjoying on
TV
839
. That is a myth. There are insufficient natural resources to continue to meet the basic needs (food, potable water, etc) of most of their large populations. The crisis is very
59

rapidly developing there whilst the blind
840
laud their economic growth and ignore the widespread poverty
841
and fearsome pollution
842
. A trickle up effect
843
is bound to affect this delusion. The conventional economic view is that supply drives
demand so the
consumer has to pay an increasing price. This is appropriate in a growing economy while it lasts. The new reality is the senescent economy in which reducing demand drives
supply and prices fall. Businesses will have to adapt to this reality one way or another
844
.
This is not to say that this adaptation will be beneficial to the community!
There is the myth that the way ahead revolves around education of the young so they have the skills to increase society’s productivity of wants 846
. The reality is that we can only afford increased productivity of these wants if the basic needs can first be satisfied
847
. Society needs to prioritize the essentials before the symbolisms
848
. The young need to be challenged to contribute to a benign power down
849
.
There is widespread belief that science
851
has provided comprehensive understanding of how the ecosystem operates
852
. That is the myth. The reality is that despite many widespread advances
853
, there is still a lot that is not understood, especially by non-scientists
854
. Even worse, science enabled the extraction of the fossil fuels from the crustal store that has powered the build up of temporary
855
civilization – together with the irreversible devastation of the operation of the ecosystem. This lack of understanding
856
has led to many unwise manipulations and substitutions for natural goods
857
and services
858
. It has led to many unintended consequences
859
. It underpins the conventional belief that science and technology can provide solutions
860
to the problems they have created
861
. This myth fosters the hope that we can get out of the mess we now have 862 .
It is an absolutely intriguing
864
myth that, according to many apparently knowledgeable people 865 , the operations of the biosphere are driven by entropy production 866 . The reality is that a generative 867 process that decreases entropy 868 always precedes this dispersive process that is entropy production. The generative process establishes the potential for the dissipative process to occur. The generative process is in the Sun for an energy transformation process but not for a material transformation process. The reduction of iron ore to metallic iron is a generative, entropy decreasing process
869
that precedes the rusting that is the dispersive process with entropy increasing,
60

so production
870
. I can eat tomatoes as part of the entropy production process that keeps me alive solely because tomatoes grow, through energy input from sunlight. That is they become more ordered, so entropy decreases. Their growing is a generative process
871
. A wildfire increases the disorder in a forest but that is followed by a spontaneous regeneration of order by new growth 872 of plants and trees tending back to climax.
Consequently, entropy production is only part of the story
873
.
There is widespread belief that technology enables improvement. That is often a myth because it is looking at one side of the coin only. It has often enabled the production of stuff having little intrinsic worth yet at an appreciable eco cost. This myth has encouraged exuberant use of limited natural resources for short-term gain at the expense of long-term loss
875
. Society at large and policy makers in particular do not understand that technology cannot create natural bounty
876
, it can only affect how much of that bounty is available
877
and how that bounty is irrevocably drawn down.
There is the widespread belief that humans have invented many clever measures that have contributed to the development of civilization. This belief is a myth because we have looked only at the anthropogenic side of the coin. Many of these inventions
879
have enabled the devastation of our life-support system, the ecosystem. Agriculture was the invention that started the disruptive process
880
millennia ago but it has become excessively so in the past century
881
. We have got better at doing this disruption of the ecosystem! Our food
882
production
883
and distribution is now highly dependent on using up exhaustible
884
natural resources. So now we have explosive growth in population whilst the food supply
885
capability is declining
886
.
The associated myth is that we can control the climate change 888 that our burning of fossil fuels has, at the very least, contributed to
889
. The reality is that the rapid climate change 890 starting to have such a disastrous impact 891 on our activities 892 is irreversible 893 .
The carbon dioxide is well above pre-industrial concentration levels and climbing rapidly
894
and irreversibly
895
. In addition, there is the emerging view amongst climatologists 896 that reinforcing feedback (RFM) 897 is exacerbating the situation 898 . We have to make use of our intelligence
899
combined with natural resources to adapt
900
to what we have unwontedly done
901
. This means quashing the common belief
902
that global
61

warming can be reduced. It will, in addition, mean globally reducing fossil fuel emissions markedly
903
and rapidly to mitigate the impact
904
.
Global Warming
62

There are apparently learned discourses that say that the development of the ecosystem defies the universal laws of entropy 906 . That is incorrect. It is a myth. It has caused widespread misunderstanding. All the dissipative energy flow processes in the operation of the ecosystem follow the entropy law. That does not mean, however, that the ecosystem operations are invariably subject to these laws. The ecosystem operations are a complex mix of processes, some of which are open 907 . This means that there can be a decrease in the overall entropy due to the input of energy. Insolation provides the energy input that drives the open ecosystem 908 .
Energy
910
has powered industrial society and there is an increasing
demand ,
especially from the Asian giants. The myth is that as one source declines there will always be another one that can take its place. That fallacious impression is heightened by the use of the term ‘renewable’ energy 911
. That is a myth. There is no such thing as renewable (physical) energy. The reality is that all forms of physical energy having
63

potential
912
invariably finally dissipate to waste heat when used
913
. We can get it from out of stock, as with using fossil fuels
914
, or harness the energy income, sunshine, by putting in place systems, like wind farms, that are constructed using natural resources. The consequence is the same
915
; the energy dissipates to waste heat, regardless of the use
916 made of it 917 .
The term ‘waste heat’ often causes confusion because its meaning depends on the context. Many pundits seem to believe that because it is termed ‘waste’ there is something lacking in the design of the process involved so the efficiency is low. The turbofan engines of airliners are very sophisticated machines with high efficiencies gained by meticulous development. Yet their exhaust jets contain a lot of heat that cannot be used and is dissipated to the atmosphere. These exhaust gases do not have potential to do useful work although they do make a contribution to atmospheric pollution! This heat energy is not wasted in the literal sense. It is immutably connected with the thrust generated to propel the aircraft. There are many systems, however, where the exhaust gases are sufficiently hot that they can be used for a worthwhile purpose if the appropriate equipment is installed
919
. These exhaust gases do have potential to contribute to the work done – as well as to the pollution!
Cheap energy obtained primarily from fossil fuels has been deemed to be the major factor in the development of industrialized society. That is a myth, as will become evident below. This energy is an attribute of the materials, like coal. The reality is that using industrial energy, say in a manufacturing plant, inevitably entails using the associated materials, often with unintended consequences
921
. It is grossly misleading to talk about energy as though it is acting alone 922 .
The myth abounds that industrial energy alone
924
drives the operation
925
of modern society 926 . The reality is that society’s operations are also dependent 927 on the availability of adequate supplies of irrigation and potable water 928 , fertile soil 929 and other raw materials
930
, natural goods
931
and services
932
. Nevertheless, scarcity of industrial energy is a rapidly emerging major 933 predicament 934 , particularly in the developed and developing countries.
These myths stem from the fundamental myth that humans are in control of the operation of the ecosystem and they know what they are doing
936
. The belief in this
64

ability to control governs almost all decisions about what we can do with the goods and services provided by nature
937
. The reality is that there are a complex natural system of checks and balances in operation in the ecosystem and we have limited understanding of them. As a result, installation of mechanisms to make use of natural goods and services often has had unintended consequences 938 . And the evidence is there that there have been some very serious consequences
939
.
There are a number of misperceptions that along with these myths give us a delusion about how the ecosystem operates, so what has happened to the Body of civilization.
Many communities have a high standard of living. A vast infrastructure provides the essential and other services that contribute to a comfortable, even luxuriant, living for most of the populace. There is the belief that this has been achieved by dint of the intelligence and efforts of the many who have contributed to the development of the region over many years. This is a misperception as it takes into account only the anthropogenic part of the contributing factors. The material aspects of this high standard of living have been obtained by irreversible draw down of natural capital and they can only maintained by the commitment to a further draw down of this depreciating capital. It is not sustainable globally but some regions will be able to support their high standard of living longer, at the expense of others, for a variety of reasons
942
.
This misperception is fostered by terms like ‘freedom’, ‘liberty’ and ‘selfsufficiency’ because they imply humans are in control of the operation of the ecosystem and of society. It is ironical that most people appreciate their mortality yet they do not recognise the total dependence of their community on using up natural bounty capital for their life sustaining requirements – until, like billions in many countries, they cannot take the essentials like food and potable water for granted. We hear a lot about ‘human rights’ but little about their responsibilities. And we hear nothing about the rights of other species.
Great importance is placed in the national accounts, yet the state of the ecosystem is not included realistically
945
in these accounts. This gives a gross misperception of the real state of the economy
946
. It is like saying that a person is healthy whilst ignoring signs of a failing body.
65

Cassandras lament that industrialized society has become addicted to relying on its ‘energy slaves’ to get most of the work done. This is really a misperception. The reality is that industrialized society is a slave to using up the rapidly depleting major source of concentrated energy, the fossil fuels.
Perhaps the most bewildering misperception 949 amongst the Cassandras is that economic growth is the fundamental problem rather than consumption
950
. Civilization will continue to unsustainably consume the remaining natural bounty even when the population and economy are declining 951 . I still have to eat and drink even if I am losing weight. Economic growth has been a major factor in the rate of society’s decimation of the ecosystem but it is not the causative factor
952
, despite much rhetoric to the contrary
953
.
A common misperception is that population growth and technological improvements means that future generations will be in a better position to cope with developing predicaments like climate change
955
. The reality is that there will be less natural bounty available for mitigating action and technology may have little impact on how this bounty is used. The major missing ingredient is wisdom! There really is no justification for this procrastination.
There are many knowledgeable people who spell out that society is really one with the nature. They are making the point that humans should be working within the confines of natural systems. That is a realistic view. But it does not take into account that the systems of industrialization are inherently devastating and destructive, in contrast to natural systems, which are cyclic, complementary or self-replenishing.
There is a major misperception about the role of energy in the operation of the ecosystem, including civilization. The common view is summed up by this quote
‘Besides water, energy is the most important substance for life on the planet. For most organisms energy is embodied in the food they eat, be it bugs, nuts or gazelles. The excess of energy consumed to energy expended (net energy) has been integral in the evolution of the structure and form of present day organisms. Net energy is measured as how much energy is left over after the calories used to find, harvest, refine and utilize the original energy are accounted for.’ Energy is not a substance, it is an attribute of materials and ignoring that fact leads to many unfortunate decisions
958
. This quote notes the importance of water
959
then concentrates on energy alone. It does not even mention
66

the many other factors involved in the life process. The energy process descibed is crucial but ignoring the other factors can lead to disasterous consequences.
This is an example of the consequences of misplaced logic. Logic is a human invention used to justify decisions
961
, often when they cannot be justifed when looked at from a different perspective. For example, there is much discussion about the merits of various means for carbon sequestration for coal-burning power stations. An array of experts has been warning that current efforts to design and build utility-scale tests of the complex array of technologies for capturing, compressing, and disposing of the gas are grossly insufficient. The logic of these discussions should be related to the worth of using the coal to provide electricity, including all the eco costs of the mining and at the expense of the possible contribution to pollution and climate change. The oft-presented argument that an alternative is to leave the coal in the ground is illogical. Civilization has an irrevocable need to use the embodied energy, hopefully, wisely even as it has to power down. The technical discussions mentioned above can assist that decision. The use to which the electricity is put is a broader issue so not relevant to this particular technical discussion. The real question is whether sequestration is worthwhile in that it reduces the impact of global warming marginally while enabling the supply of electricity to meet some of society’s needs.
Of course, we humans are so proud of our achievements in building up the Body of civilization that we ignore most of the eco cost this build up has entailed. This misperception fosters the incomprehensible belief in business as usual even as the predicaments grow strongly.
A major example of this misperception is the price of oil. This has been climbing steadily in recent years due to, according to the pundits, a range of forces, including political, economic, financial speculation, perception of upcoming supply problems and the impact of natural and human caused disasters. There is increasing recognition that oil has been too cheap for the richer countries, so encouraging its wasteful use. There is virtually no recognition, however, that it is exhaustible natural capital so the price should reflect depreciation. This means that many producing countries regard the current price escalation as a bonanza providing them with leverage to unthinking ravage the ecosystem
67

for short-term materialistic gains
964
. Some countries, like Norway, are seemingly wisely putting some of the receipts into a future fund
965
to contribute to meeting future operating expenses
966
.
There is widespread misperception about the contribution that science and technology has made to the development of industrialized civilization. There is very little realization that it has enabled the ravaging of the ecosystem for the transitory benefit of society. This misperception is the foundation of the belief help by society that science and technology can solve 968 the problems it has contributed to 969 . This misperception of the feasible contribution of science and technology is contributing to dubious
970 mitigation measures
971
.
There is no doubt that science and technology has made many contributions to improvements in the operation of society in such fields as communications and information technology without entailing significant deleterious material consequences.
These are rightfully acclaimed as advances. But it entails the misperception that these advances can be enjoyed in the future even as the natural bounty becomes scarce
973
.
There is now widespread recognition that industrialized society’s exuberant use of fossil fuels over the past century has largely caused a climate change
975
that is likely to have a major impact
976
on the operation of the ecosystem
977
. The policy makers
978
are now fostering the misperception that global reduction of (the rate of) GHG emissions will appreciably mitigate the change
979
. Most of the discussion amongst authorities and in the media conveys the false impression that global warming can be reversed when in actual fact it can only, at best, be slowed down. This focusing on emissions is diverting attention from also adapting 980 to the impact of the changing climate 981 . The consequences of the rapid depreciation of natural capital in the developed and developing countries is not even considered.
There is the misperception amongst most of the business folk that they are contributing to the progress of society, as well as to their bank accounts. They focus on the goods and services their activities produce without appreciating that these invariably entail a draw down of the irreplaceable natural bounty. They have been conditioned to look at only one side of the coin! It does not help that often the use of these goods and services are not really worthwhile
983
.
68

There are millions of honest, skilled and hard working people who believe they are earning the right to a high standard of living, so to a pleasant retirement. They live in a society that fosters that misperception. They are taught from infancy that this is their right – to rape the ecosystem with the help of energy slaves
985
! They often do work that is financially valued but not worthwhile in a realistic sense 986 . There are some who are content with the way of life that has opened up for them
987
. They are unaware of the true cost of irreversibly degrading their life support system 988 . They will have to wake up from their dream to look forward to leaving a horrible legacy. How many of them will strive to mitigate the coming economic decline
989
?
That is enough about myths and misperceptions. There are some realities we need to face up to, as they have been a large influence on what has happened and what will happen in the future. They are facets of the way civilization has developed, so operates now
991
. Civilization has built up a lot of momentum
992
in a direction that will be extremely difficult to change
993
and will entail a continuing draw down on the natural bounty capital
994
because of the inertia
995
. Future operations will be influenced by these realities, both good and bad
996
. Most people are aware of the benefits of industrialization but tend to gloss over the other side of the coin
997
. The holistic approach is being taken here
998
!
It is really very ironical that there are two powerful forces controlling the operation of civilization. They are essentially conflicting in every sense
1000
. Transient economic forces
1001
are transparently driving the current insane growth simply because the continuing ecological forces
1002
are only subtly exerting their influence as yet
1003
.
Economic growth has the powerful leverage of that intangible money 1004 only because of the delusion about its continuing value
1005
. Many continue to believe that economics is winning the Greatest Game 1006 even as trickle up undermines the foundations of the
Body. The foundations are the tangible reality. Economics are the intangible delusion.
It is ironical that economists claim that the market forces of supply and demand
will invariably ensure the most efficient form of economic growth 1008 , which, in reality, means more rapid depreciation of natural capital. The reality is that ecological forces are now assuming control of many issues and the financial market forces are just doing their job in balancing out the decline. Rising prices for oil are having a deleterious impact on
69

food production just as rising levels of affluence and population are increasing the demand for food. The consequence of this dilemma is that the financial market forces will ensure that the poor will bear the brunt of this double whammy whilst doing little to reduce the rate of natural capital depreciation.
The basic fact is that natural bounty is being used up in building and operating the
Body of civilization. Natural forces ensure that all elements of the Body have a limited life due to wear and tear. So the natural bounty capital has been declining for millennia
and is likely to be asymptotic to a limit in the not too distant future. The natural bounty
income may have changed slightly but that would have had little impact on the principle that at that future date all the natural capital available millennia ago will have been used up in creating the temporary Body of civilization. There will then be nothing left to operate and maintain the decaying Body so it will be in terminal decline. This is the horrifying reality. Civilization is inherently a life system. Modern civilization is inherently no different in principle to those previous civilizations that used up the natural resources available to them. The size of the civilization and the scale of the abuse make no difference to the outcome.
A fascinating aspect of this conflict is the impact of human expectations on decisions and material commitments on what does actually happen. Many humans base their decisions on the basis of expectation of business as usual. Some with better understanding tend to make wiser decisions. The point, however, is that the operation of society is based upon expectations to a large degree. A person may decide to outlay some capital on the expectation that future income will aid its replacement. On the other hand, there is really no real expectation that natural income will replace natural capital that has been used
1009
. Thus, expectation is a human measure that is often erroneous. The real expectation 1010 is that natural bounty capital will continue to depreciate and, as a consequence, ecological forces will have an increasing impact on what happens. This will still be the dominating trend even where improved methods make using some natural income a worthwhile substitute for some of the capital draw down 1011 .
This essay concentrates on what the operations of civilization have done to the eco system. There is appreciable comment on why human society has and continues to ravage its life support system. The simple reality is that it is because it is able to do this.
70

It has the exosomatic tools, including money, that enables it to irrationally commit ecocide. It will only slow this devastation down when ecological forces exert greater control. There are emerging signs of the deleterious impact on the operation of society of climate change. The declining availability of oil, fertile soil and potable water are other elements of this growing impact of ecological forces. It is starting to win the tug-o-war with the economical force, virtually unnoticed by the powerful but at the expense of many of the weak.
On the other hand, a decision can lead to an unavoidable commitment even though due allowance for it may not be made. Appreciable natural capital has been expended in building up Helsinki and its infrastructure. There is, therefore, a commitment to continue to use natural capital to operate and maintain this city even as the available capital declines. It could well be that meeting this commitment will be a major predicament
1014
. It is ironical that this predicament is not an expectation of current society
1015
.
The reality is that nature (Gaia) has available a wide range of goods
1017
and services
1018
, some of which we make use of
1019
and others we have devastated
1020
. Many, however, are virtually untouched by human activities
1021
. There is much speculation about how these goods and services evolved
1022
. But much is beyond our ken
1023
.
However, we do know that a degree of self-organization and self-regulation has evolved
1024
in natural systems over appreciable
time . We talk about the Wonders of
Nature then blithely ignore them when it suits our economic growth paradigm
1025
, the desires of the powerful
1026
and our consumerism lust
1027
. The reality is that these natural goods and services do control most of what happens 1028 and will continue to do so despite our efforts
1029
. Human activities have had a significant influence in only some respects 1030 . And this has been mainly bad because our methods are inherently destructive 1031 . Our systems do not emulate the self-regulation found in nature and the self-organization is often selfish. The wonders of civilization have come at a tremendous unrecognized cost 1032 . So we are going to have to pay the bill with what is left of the natural bounty
1033
while trying to make do
1034
.
The self-organization and self-regulation that characterizes the evolution of Gaia is a reality we can readily accept because we are living with the long-term
71

consequences
1036
. We now need to look critically at the degree of self-organization and self-regulation of civilization. The development of industrial civilization is occurring at a very rapid rate. The self-organization is driven by what is available from the eco system together with the skills and know how of the workers, without regard to the future. There is no effective recognition of the limited crustal store of the exhaustible materials, including the fossil fuels. There has been no effective recognition of the impact of the toxic wastes produced on the operation of the eco system although there is now awareness of the impact on climate and on health 1037 . There is very little awareness of the impact on the operation of the biosphere. The limited self-regulation is very largely driver by the powerful using money with very little regard for the fact that it entails depreciating natural bounty capital. This depreciation is aided and abetted by the consumerism disease of the well off. One of the predicaments generated by the self-organization and selfregulation of industrial civilization is that it aims to achieve a degree of balanced operation although the scenario is changing very rapidly. It means that often the changes that are occurring are generating problems in other fields
1039
. This situation is often exacerbated when money drives the changes rather than some more realistic measure of worth
1040
.
The reality is that civilization has disrupted the natural operation of the eco system in many ways, many of them disruptive and, ironically, can be counter productive. The introduction of invasive species is one glaring example
1041
. This disruption is one element in the depreciation of natural bounty capital.
It is crucial for adjusting your mindset to appreciate the simple message that the operation of civilization entails the irreversible consumption of the natural bounty, most of which is exhaustible capital. That is the fundamental reality
1043
. It makes no difference what these resources are used for. The eco cost has been entailed. That draw down of natural bounty is a process that is unsustainable 1044 . This essay is aimed at clarification and verification
1045
of that message and repudiation of contrary views.
The historical manipulation by the elite people and countries using money, know how and tools to become wealthy at the expense of the proletariat is an existing reality.
They have used more than their fair share of the natural bounty to ensure a material standard of living that the ecosystem cannot afford. Yet they have the leverage to ensure
72

they continue to get more than their fair share of the remaining natural bounty. This traditional hierarchical structure of society is a reality that is unlikely to change although it may be moderated
1047
to some extent by pressure exerted by the Earthly Revolution. It has only a secondary influence on the decline of the Body of civilization but it has a big influence on those who will feel the pain the most.
It is fascinating that in the past, predatory countries used protectionism to enable them to build up their strength. They now foster globalization to facilitate their ravaging of the resources of those countries that have been left behind. That is the grim reality. It means that the strongest communities will be the least vulnerable as the influence of the ecological forces grows. Protectionism is now re-emerging with respect to energy, food and water. It is an RFM that is protecting the strong from the impact of reality to a degree.
These strong communities have the infrastructure, most of the essential services, the knowledge to back the money in countering the impact of the emerging ecological forces. They have depreciated more than their fair share of the natural capital, whether it be global or regional. That is the reality that is most unlikely to change in the future.
They have the means to ensure that they continue to depreciate the remaining natural capital for a time.
This ravaging has occurred because of the almost universal belief in the benevolence of economic forces coupled with ignoring the dependence on what the environment has left to provide. The reality is that civilization has gone so far down this destructive path that recovery is impractical. The predatory communities may show desultory signs of aiding the less well off whilst covertly striving to hold their position.
Oil and other raw materials are a major component of the natural capital. Their extraction invariably tends to peak. M King Hubbert 1052 elucidated on this peaking
phenomenon for oil decades ago. The extraction rate tends to increase as the demand and
the means of extraction increase. There comes a time when the easy to extract has gone 1053 and the difficulty offsets the technology so a peak rate is reached and supply tends to fall below demand. The available resource is now in terminal decline and demand destruction sets in. This is a simple physical limitation on the resource that civilization can use. Know how and technology can influence the peak extraction rate and
73

when it occurs but not the principle. Peak oil
1054
is probably occurring now and this will have a major impact on the global economy. But the peak supply
1055
of other materials
1056 can have a severe impact on the operation of society.
Business is competitive. Companies aim to stimulate and meet consumer demand more effectively than their ilk. They use automation and worker skills to irreversibly use the natural resources without due regard to sustainability of this ravaging. There may be circumstances where this is a worthwhile means of using these resources but there is no self-regulating mechanism to ensure this. The reality, then, is than business competition does not promote efficient use of natural bounty.
This article provides a prescient view of interpretation of the exploitation of some elements of the natural bounty capital. http://www.eoearth.org/article/Limits_to_Exploitation_of_Nonrenewable_Resources_(his torical )
Limits to Exploitation of Nonrenewable Resources (historical). Originally published as
‘Limits to Exploitation of Nonrenewable Resources’ Author: Earl Cook. Source: Science, volume 191, pages 676-682, 1976.
This details the issues involved in the exploitation of mineral and energy resources. It explains that there are geological factors that cause the limited concentrations that are worth exploiting even though technological developments may expand these to some extent. It makes the sound case that the limits of these elements of natural bounty capital may increase with developing knowledge and technology. This explains why so many of the powerful have in the past had a belief in the growth of these resources. This growth only prolongs the draw down of this element of the natural capital. This uncertainty about how much of this capital will ultimately be realized does not affect the principle that the aggregated draw down is not sustainable.
And the bounty is now a lot less than when Cook spelt out this reality. Just as time has
passed, so has a large amount of natural capital.
An ironical feature of this continuing, irreversible draw down of the natural bounty is that it is for the construction of generally temporary
1060
structures of the Body of civilization. Gaia, however, continues to evolve despite the impact of civilization but the Body can be maintained only so long as there is sufficient natural bounty left
1061
.
74

A fundamental physical reality is that society is using available industrial energy
(electricity and transportation fuel) for doing the work of building, operating and maintaining the Body. Money does not enter into that equation. Market forces
1064
do not influence what actually happens. This, of course, leaves aside what doing this work on the Body does to Gaia! It also leaves aside the consumption of other irreplaceable raw materials and the use of scarce water in the production process and the impact of the resultant toxic wastes.
Many businesses 1066 are totally dependent on using some of the available industrial energy, this critical component of natural bounty capital. The reality is that these businesses will decline as the availability of this energy declines
1067
.
A basic (fallacious) tenet of economics is that market forces determine a sound development
1069
. That is supposed to guide businesses as to what are good investments regardless of the consequences for others
1070
. The reality is that this theory often does not work because of myopic or prejudiced views
1071
. In aggregate they tend to waste some of the natural bounty. They are speeding up the race to ecological bankruptcy unnecessarily.
That is the ecological reality. The reality that we will be examining because it has a critical impact on what has happened to the ecosystem. There is, however, the societal reality that the pursuit of money is the most powerful influence on the decisions made by the movers and shakers. It is, however, a hallucination. It is unsustainable. We have a dichotomy with the majority believing in the unsustainable while only a few believe in the actual, substantial reality.
There is increasing, justified, concern about the availability of industrial energy.
This is understandable as a high (material) standard of living is very dependent on high industrial energy per capita
1074
. Most of this energy is obtained by the draw down of the natural capital 1075 in the fossil fuels. The main supply of industrial energy is exhaustible 1076 . That draw down is not sustainable. But insolation will continue to supply an energy income, even though it will not meet the industrial demands of civilization
1077 so a power down 1078 will occur 1079 . Consequently, only a degree of industrial energy usage will continue to be possible. However, industrial civilization is also dependent on the draw down of many other, primarily material
1080
, forms of natural capital. And there is no income substitute for these. So this continuing draw down is irrevocably
75

unsustainable
1081
. That is the reality that Georgescu-Roegen pointed out decades ago but it fell on deaf ears
1082
. It is, however, factored in to the discussion in this essay.
Using the fossil fuels to provide electrical energy and fuels has driven
1084
the development of industrial civilization in the past one hundred and fifty years. The development commenced and grew in Western countries with Asia following later. It has enabled some countries
1085
to have a much higher capability
1086
than others to withstand the depletion of these sources of energy. That is a reality that will have a major impact on which countries are best able to power down. It is ironical that some with a high capability have also a high momentum
1087
so will find it harder to power down
1088
.
It is ironical that this blatant misuse of the fossil fuels has enabled a standard of living such that the majority in developed countries can take the provision of sustenance for granted – for now. The reality, however, is that the majority of people on this globe are no better off. Their material standard of living has often deteriorated along with cultural values.
This differential means that, on the one hand, there are many communities whose greatest concern is the continuing availability of the industrial energy that powers their enterprises. They will embrace climate change
1091
mitigation
1092
where it is to their advantage
1093
. On the other hand, there are many communities
1094
struggling to obtain the necessities. They will be forced to adapt
1095
to climate change
1096
as best they are able
1097
.
They are often in no better position
1098
than other species
1099
.
A particularly insidious trend is for the development of agrofuels to power the
SUVs of the well off indolent at the expense of food production for the masses.
Government subsidies are encouraging agribusinesses to go down this path. It is not surprising as the reality is that there are very powerful forces supporting carmania while hungry billions are unheard.
Globalization 1102 has increased the capability of transnational corporations to ravage the ecosystem to their financial benefit
1103
. This is the case of powerful interests using their leverage of money and know how 1104 to augment the damage that industrial energy has done to the ecosystem. The reality then, is that this powerful element of society is blindly leading the way down an unsustainable path.
76

Industrialized society has disrupted many of the functions of the ecosystem, with upsetting the radiating energy balance
1106
and the usurping of land
1107
being the principal ones. As a consequence, the future usage of natural bounty for the normal operations of civilization will have to vie with maintenance
1108
, remedial
1109
, mitigation
1110
and adaptation 1111 measures 1112 . Continuing growth will just make this task much harder 1113 .
There are some politicians who argue an increasing population will provide more
(intellectual) resources 1114 but they do not say these will produce more stuff and people to consumer it. Nor do they recognize that this would entail a more rapid draw down of the natural bounty.
Civilizations started usurping land for agricultural purposes millennia ago and have taken over such a high proportion that there is good reason to believe
biodiversity
1116
has been severely disrupted with consequential species extinctions
1117
.
This take over has had a number of impacts. Nearly all of them have been deleterious for both society and the ecosystem. The Green Revolution has come at horrendous (largely hidden) eco costs for pesticides
1118
, insecticides, herbicides, mechanical tilling, harvesting and transportation. Consequently, it is unsustainable. This synthetic mode of agriculture has also often led to appreciable ground water contamination and soil degradation
1119
. It has fostered the unsustainable population growth. It has encouraged unhealthy eating and drinking
1120
habits in many well off communities with obesity becoming very common. This is a grim reality that has to be coped with. The Green
Revolution is now noticeably dying, with the declining supply of oil being only one debilitating factor.
The operations of industrial civilization are crucially dependent on the availability of energy in the form of electricity and transportation fuels
1122
. Most of this currently comes from the diminishing and damaging fossil fuels. So the view is that other sources of energy for this purpose are urgently required. The concentrated energy in the fossil
fuels was obtained from insolation over a long period of time . The reality is that this
concentration is not a determining factor where the usage is electricity 1123 . Harnessing insolation can well be a much more worthwhile approach, as the fossil fuel usage evokes a heavy eco cost by virtue of capital draw down as well as damage to Gaia in fostering
77

climate change. The substitution process will, however, take time
1124
and involve appreciable additional eco costs
1125
.
This concentration of energy in oil, however, is a major factor in its utility as a transportation fuel. This means that the reality is that partial substitution
1127
for the fuels used in land, sea 1128 and air vehicles 1129 derived from oil will be a major technical and logistic problem that will take appreciable
time and involve additional eco costs to
implement. But it will continue to be tackled with the urgency growing in conjunction with the oil supply competition growth 1130 . Substitution may only be worthwhile in very limited circumstances. http://www.corporat eeurope.org/ agrofuelfolly. html
’The EU's agrofuel folly: policy capture by corporate interests’ Briefing paper, Corporate
Europe Observatory (CEO), June 2007.Despite growing public concern about the risks associated to agrofuels, the European Union (EU) is throwing its weight behind the promotion of these often very harmful crops. In March 2007, a proposal set targets to increase the use of agrofuels in all road transport fuel to 10 percent by 2020. The
Commission is also planning to channel large amounts of EU public funds towards the research & development of agrofuel projects. This proposal is an example of grossly misguided policy as it suggests to the user that transportation predicament can be largely overcome. The reality is that carmania, flymania and other motorized transportation forms are doomed to a painful (to the community and business
1131
) demise.
Industrial civilization is headed down an unsustainable path. It has already used up a lot of the irreplaceable natural bounty. There will, however, be an appreciable lag before it changes direction in an attempt to slow the decline. It will take time for the reality to sink in sufficiently with the movers and shakers to get some useful action
1133
. It
will take time for these actions to achieve sufficient momentum
1134
to change direction appreciably. The irony is, that as this time passes, so does the bounty available for remedial
1135
, adaptation
1136
and mitigation
1137
action decline.
Time passing is
irreversible
1138
. Natural bounty consumption is also irreversible! Entropic growth
1139
of
78

the Body of global civilization has almost certainly peaked but it will take time for significant mitigating action to commence
1140
.
Another way of looking at what has happened is to regard the goods and services available from the ecosystem as assets
1142
. The operations and development of civilization has used these assets at a rate far exceeding the very limited replenishment rate
1143
. The rate of draw down of natural bounty has accelerated appreciably in the past century 1144 . These assets, consequently, have depreciated significantly. Civilization has established a commitment to draw down on the remaining assets without having a significant income
1145
. Consequently, bankruptcy is inevitable.
We have acquired a number of dependencies whilst going down this path. We have a love of money
1147
, an addiction to carmania
1148
and flymania
1149
, and a dependence on synthetic systems for our health
1150
, comfort
1151
and entertainment
1152 together with a fetish for consuming stuff
1153
. We will have to learn how to cope with the withdrawal of these false indicators of the place of human society in the operations of the ecosystem. That is a harsh reality that few are prepared to face up to
1154
.
Many of the measures installed by humans have had unintended consequences.
They have disrupted many of the multitude of complex operations of the ecosystem. That is now quite widely seen as a harsh reality of our attempts to use natural resources for our purposes. Climate change
1156
, the hole in the ozone layer
1157
, increasing cancer
1158
and diabetes, high blood pressure and numerous other human affliction rates are just some of the unintended consequences
1159
. Governments are now, belatedly, fostering the
precautionary principle
1160
in an attempt to reduce the incidence of more unintended consequences 1161 . Doubtless experts in many fields are aware of many more 1162 but there is little real action to slow down possibly dangerous innovations
1163
. More attention is paid to those innovations that have been successful 1164 .
We have been able to do this because we have so many devices 1166 that save us from using our physical energy on mundane tasks, like aiding nature to produce food!
This leaves us with a surplus of energy, mainly intellectual, so we have had to find outlets, very many of them not worthwhile
1167
. We have been very successful in building up this delusion and paying the more successful ones a high salary for promoting this wasteful use of natural resources. The reality is that we would have been better of using
79

this physical and mental energy more wisely so that there would have been a smaller draw down of the natural capital in the fossil fuels
1168
.
There seems to be a natural law relating to how all animals make use of the energy they obtain by eating. There is a natural limit to how much of this energy can be stored, some overnight and some for the long term in growth. The remainder has to be used
1170
or excreted in faeces. Much, of course, is used internally in the functioning of metabolism. The remainder, then, is available to do physical and mental work, and it must be expended 1171 or rejected! That is the reality. Some will be used for basic purposes. Some may be used in doing productive work while some may be used in more satisfying pursuits
1172
. It is, unquestionably, a matter of supply and demand for all animals. Humans have the ‘advantage’ 1173
that exosomatic tools
1174
have enabled them to put in place machines to meet many of their energy demands
1175
. So many of modern society have energy and money slaves
1176
to meet their prosaic demands. This gives them a degree of freedom
1177
to use much of their supply of energy for whatever. This has been a major factor in the erection of unsustainable industrial civilization
1178
.
There is little doubt that the crucial reality is that we are using up a number of exhaustible natural resources. It is crucial because it is a reality that is not factored into the way modern civilization operates. It is absolutely incredible that society has deemed for centuries that it can exuberantly extract these resources for wasteful purposes
1180
.
Society is now being called to account as these irreplaceable natural resources become scarce. There is some concern in knowledgeable circles about how long the fossil fuels will last, with oil being regarded as the most worrisome. There is also very justifiable concern in many regions about fertile soil 1181 and aquifer water 1182 . There is, however, no mechanism to realistically account for the draw down of this natural capital
1183
. So this irreplaceable natural capital has been drawn down irresponsibly. That is the horrifying reality. Its eco cost is, however, included in the discussions here as a major component
1184
.
This predicament is exacerbated by the belief of the powerful in the virtue of economic growth. This delusion is a reality that will not disappear overnight. It is a major factor in encouraging the wasteful draw down of the natural bounty. It is contributing to
80

entropic growth
1186
. Economic growth is a disease of society that will not be easily ameliorated because the powerful believe it is healthy
1187
.
We have an entrenched belief that the foundations of society can continue to grow
1189
. However, society really uses a lot of the declining natural bounty just to operate. The fallacious belief that society can continue down this path is the current reality. Facing up to the fact that we have already used up a lot of the bounty will entail a major, uncomfortable, but necessary, cultural change 1190 . We have to learn that consumption of exhaustible natural resources is really unsustainable 1191 .
We have been conditioned to believe that money controls the operation of the foundations of our civilization. This reality is a major factor in the unintended rapid draw down of the natural bounty. It is a factor in the construction of the vast transient infrastructure that enables our operations. That abstraction, money is a rough measure of the value to society of the draw down but does not take into account most of the eco cost!
In most cases it does not indicate the real worth.
Communities have widely ranging views of what their needs are. The reality is that there are many countries where communities would be satisfied if they could get adequate food, water, sanitation, shelter and law and order. They would also like to get education and care. On the other had, there are communities that can take all these for granted and regard cars, large homes, laborsaving devices and home entertainment facilities as needs. This difference in perceived needs will, at best, only diminish slightly in the future as the increasing scarcity of the natural bounty hits. Those communities with a high (material) standard of living will find it hard to maintain from the depleting natural bounty 1194 . But they will be better off 1195 than those currently with a low standard of living
1196
!
Associated with this view of the role of money is the reality that business essentially controls the operation of society, including what it does with the natural bounty regardless of whether it provides good worth for the eco cost entailed.
Consequently, it is essential to use the power of business 1198 to ease the coming power down and associated remedial actions
1199
as far as that may be possible
1200
. For that to be possible, it will be necessary to overcome the destructiveness of capitalism
1201
. That is quite a task!
81

A major factor in the build up of industrial civilization has been the association of tools
1203
and skills. The reality is that money has been the selective driver behind the use of these skills and tools. In combination they have provided the leverage used to meet the wants of some whilst denying the needs of others and devastating the life support system.
Businesses and corporations aim to maximize profits, partly by minimizing cost, including labor. They cannot go too far in that regard, as they are dependent on the consequential ability of the workers to consume their products 1205 . The introduction of automation 1206 because of the availability of cheap industrial energy and the invention of machines have enabled the corporations to pursue their predatory aims whilst enabling the workers to enjoy a slight improvement in their standard of living
1207
. This trend is based upon the delusion that the supply of cheap industrial energy is sustainable. The reality to be faced, particularly in the developed and developing countries, is that there is a limit to the supply of these products that civilization can afford because of its consumption of the declining natural bounty.
The reality is that corporations are in business to meet the demands
1209
of the community as best they are able
1210
. That is their ethos. The demands vary from the necessities through to the stimulated
1211
wasteful wants. The fact remains that businesses are a major component in the operation of communities
1212
. Discouraging the insidious elements
1213
of business is a major requirement in the power down
1214
.
The human species has the unique ability to look ahead, so they plan and budget.
The reality is that this looking ahead is very selective. We look to building up the edifice of civilization whilst largely ignoring the foundations
1216
. Our looking ahead ignores the real cost of drawing down on natural capital. It ignores the real cost of devastation of the environment. It ignores the real cost of maintaining the infrastructure of civilization. It has hallucinations about what we can achieve. This pursuit of consumption of natural resources whilst ignoring these costs is leading to societal bankruptcy.
Some of the natural operations are taken for granted because they are deemed to have an impact we can handle easily. We have means of accommodating the destructive influence of such natural forces as wind, rain and friction on what we build. We believe that adequate design solves the problem
1218
. The reality is that the influence of these natural forces is irreversibly accumulative
1219
. They represent a continuing and
82

irrevocable draw down on the natural bounty
1220
. They contribute to the growth of global entropy, a realistic measure of the state the Body of civilization
1221
. Entropic growth
1222
is immutable
1223
. It is analogous to the aging of my body.
Societies have irrevocably drawn down on their natural bounties to build up the temporary Body of civilization in their region. That reality is generally not recognized
1225
. There is a trade off between the attainable material standard of living and the ensuring decline as available natural resources decline. Many communities have a standard that the ecosystem cannot sustain for long. The developed countries invariably have a high standard of living partly because they have effectively robbed
1226
other regions of some of their natural resources. They now have an inherent advantage as the available global bounty becomes scarce.
Humans believe that their scientific methods have provided sufficient insight into how nature works to devise sound means of using natural resources for their own purposes
1228
. The reality is that lack of understanding
1229
has resulted in the adoption of unsustainable methods
1230
. As a consequence, the Body of civilization is a cancer
1231
on
Gaia that is now uncontrollable by society but susceptible to the growing ecological forces.
There are many limits to operations in the ecosystem. Lovelock
1233
discusses the constraints that give stability in the self-regulating systems that comprise the ecosystem.
There is no need to speculate here on why this occurs. We just recognize that it is a characteristic of these operations
1234
. We have an appreciation that the height of men is limited with only a few being exceptionally short or tall
1235
. Sperm whales also grow to a roughly known size. Ironically, there are no such limits to our beliefs 1236 . We recognize the reality of many of these natural limits intuitively
1237
yet choose to ignore others when they are inconvenient. There is great pride in the airliners that enable widespread international travel. Society, including governments and business, chooses to ignore that the airline industry is doomed to down sizing in the near future
1238
. There is a limit to how much oil will be extracted globally 1239 although economists continue to argue that market
1240
forces determine supply
1241
. The reality, nevertheless, is that about half has been used in my lifetime and that it is getting harder to extract as the limit is approached
1242
. Would not it be wise to face up to that reality and seriously plan to
83

ameliorate this addiction rather than fight over the remainder
1243
? The irony is that there are these limits in the operation of the ecosystem yet there is not a corresponding limit to money supply. This has allowed the global economy to grow exponentially, but unsustainably, at the expense of the accelerating decline of the natural bounty
1244
!
Civilization does not emulate the self-regulation 1245 of Gaia.
The exuberant use of fossil fuels for industrialization without even reasonable consideration 1247 has contributed to climate change 1248 . There are many arguments 1249 about the scientific basis for this assertion 1250 . It is quite amusing that some seemingly knowledgeable
1251
discussion of the matter ignores the everyday signs
1252
of what is happening
1253
. The reality is that the powerful have been very loath to accept anything that impedes economic growth
1254
. Mitigating policies are only now being instigated in some regions
1255
. The growth in coal usage
1256
, particularly in China
1257
, U.S.
1258
and
India
1259
is exacerbating the climate predicament by increasing global emissions
1260
even as the EU and others are introducing supposedly quite stringent measures
1262
to reduce them
1263
.
The impact on the climate of the greenhouse gases produced, primarily by coal combustion, is not the only synthetic operation that has unintended consequences.
Scientific research is indicating quite a few, including the influence of pollution
1265
, climate change
1266
and many commercial products
1267
on human health
1268
. Many established methods of providing society with goods are now being found to also have a
significant deleterious impact on biodiversity and geodiversity
1269
. A recent study has cast more light on the possibility that mining can cause earthquakes
1270
. Development of a geothermal station near Basel has been stopped because it caused tremors.
The exploitation of natural resources for the benefit of the whims of the rich people and countries at the expense of the local people and their environment 1272 is a reality that continues to grow quickly. The rich, people, communities and countries, contribute to a mal-distribution of the consumption of the natural bounty. They hasten entropic growth 1273 with their demands, which are often not worthwhile. It means that the poor
1274
will suffer the most from the decline. However, the rich are likely to have the biggest shock
1275
because of their complacency. It is possible that the smart middle class will adapt quite well
1276
.
84

There is appreciable evidence to suggest that Gaia consists of evolved quasiclimax
1278
ecosystems
1279
having sets of checks and balances, before industrialization grossly perturbed the situation
1280
, often by instigating reinforcing feedback mechanisms
(RFM)
1281
. The most pervasive one in society is the monetary interest obtained by lenders. This usury improves the ability of the lender to rape Gaia without having to pay the full cost. Cheap industrial energy enabled the devotion of more intellectual energy to devising means of discovering and extracting more oil is just one example of an RFM 1282 .
A number of RFM are appearing to exacerbate climate change 1283 . Inherited money is a proven RFM for enabling the rich to get richer
1284
– at the expense of the ecosystem and the poor! It buys know how and the mechanical means to increase the leverage to consume natural bounty. Some other RFMs having a noteworthy de-stabilizing effect on the ecosystem are trade globalization
1285
, the wealth and ambitions of developed and developing countries
1286
, the defense/industrial complexes
1287
and social diversity
1288
.
Sport is a fascinating example of RFM. As times have come down and records broken over the years, there has been a societal force aimed at achieving higher efficiency at the cost of resilience. This, of course, leads to greater likelihood of a breakdown in the system
1289
. There is a physiological performance limit that may be stretched
1290
but not broken. There is no such limit to the amount of money the rich can garner! They will continue to use their leverage to limit the consequences for them of the collapse at the expense of the environment as well as the masses. And their descendants will inherit this leverage, as its purchase rapidly declines because ecological forces have taken over.
A reality is that when we make the decision to use natural resources we entail an un-repayable eco cost. These costs can be trivial in a few cases 1292 but there are many cases where the cost is far from trivial
1293
. This debit is regardless of what use is made of these resources 1294 . Society generally attributes a financial value to the use that can be very much at variance with the real worth 1295 . Individuals entail an eco cost during their lifetime but, of course, some may make a worthwhile contribution to society
1296
. Military equipment is a prime example of eco debt 1297 that may never provide a worthwhile service
1298
.
A complementary reality is that civilization has used natural resources to build up artificial structures
1300
and services
1301
to meet society’s needs and wants. Cities are
85

prime examples of exuberant use of natural resources. We laud our temporary creations
1302
as though they rival the Wonders of Nature that have existed for eons. This artificial structure is called the Body of civilization here to differentiate it from the natural one, Gaia. It differs fundamentally from the natural one in that it entails an eco cost for its construction, operation, maintenance and finally, demolition 1303 . The decision to install the structures of civilization entails an implied
1304
ongoing commitment to meet the ensuring eco cost for their maintenance.
One of the most fascinating aspects of nature is the self-organization and selfregulation capabilities of a vast multitude of systems from the cells in the human body to giant whales and to fir trees. We can appreciate to a certain extent their niche roles in the operation of the ecosystem. No doubt specialists have some understanding of how these capabilities of various species evolved
1306
. We only need to recognize that it is a reality that contrasts with the human organizing ability
1307
. It can be argued soundly that a city is a synthetic self-organization system. The analogy, however, stops there. A polar bear will grow to a specific size, give or take a little. So do humans. Their self-organization systems have self-regulation limits. Cities do not
1308
. The mega cities are rapidly growing sores on the ecosystem
1309
. They are a plague. They are consuming the natural bounty, locally and from afar, at a horrendous rate. That is the current reality and it cannot continue because we are running out of the natural resources to sustain this growth
1310
.
Many natural systems
1312
have a limited life
1313
. So long as they continue to get their sustenance
1314
and do not suffer some life-ending trauma, they will see out their natural life. That mortality is a reality that we recognize. Synthetic systems, however, do not necessarily have a limited life. The Taj Mahal has endured for hundreds of years because natural aging has been offset by maintenance
1315
. That existence can continue so long as the necessary resources are available 1316 .
A crucial reality is that communities have presumed to have the right 1318 to use the natural resources available in their region
1319
without accepting the responsibility to do so wisely for the continuing good of our life support system, so the future inhabitants.
This is a right particularly relevant to countries. There is no need to go into the historical development. These rights have been universally recognized by society for millennia
1320
.
One aspect of it has been the usurping of land to facilitate food production and other
86

activities of Homo sapiens
1321
at the expense of other species
1322
. This does not mean that powerful societal forces have not usurped these rights by a variety of means, fair
1323
and foul
1324
. Importation of natural resources
1325
has been one of the main tools of some of the richer countries
1326
. The forced importation of slave labor has been superseded by the encouraged immigration of slave wage labor 1327 to work with the energy slaves 1328 .
It is an interesting paradox that humans have presumed rights in many of the operations of society but do not recognize the rights of the ecosystem 1330 to operate untrammeled by our activities. There are powerful forces in society impelled by ‘rights’,
‘freedom’ and ‘liberty’ that have fostered the development of aspects of society without consideration of the eco cost. This is a reality that has contributed appreciably to the current devastation of the ecosystem that is our life support
1331
!
Humans have a drive to prove themselves by achievement. Whether this comes about by nurture or nature is besides the point here. It is a powerful societal force
1333
in the operation of society even though often in a perverse direction. It is fostered by competition
1334
. It has been bolstered appreciably by cheap industrial energy enabling much more intellectual energy
1335
by freeing many people from manual labor. Pointing this force towards meeting the challenge facing society (of the aging Body) will require a major cultural change
1336
, starting with realization that everything we do and use draws down on the remaining natural bounty.
Perhaps the most pervasive reality is that money plays a major role in the decisions about operations in society, including what is done about the foundations.
There is no reason to believe that this role will change in the future but its haphazard influence will have to be moderated and re-directed to some extent to enable wiser use of the natural resources.
The fundamental anthropogenic belief 1339 in capitalistic societies is that freeenterprise business will ensure the most efficient market forces 1340 . Businesses are the motive force behind ‘progress’ in building up the standard of living. That is the reality behind the operation of these societies today. That mode of operation is all very well if the only consideration is the delusionary improving ‘standard of living’ which is really largely increased consumption
1341
. It is a mode of operation that encourages the striving by businesses for profit at any cost, real or hidden
1342
. It is a mode of operation
87

contributing to entropic growth for a ‘pie in the sky’, without consideration of the real long-term consequences.
There is good reason to believe that the oil industry has been subsidized with taxpayer dollars in the U.S. for some time
1344
. The associated cheap fuel has been a major factor in the American love affair with the car. This affair has spread globally and throughout an expanding part of society
1345
. Carmania is an insidious disease rivaling consumptionitis in many communities. This is an entrenched reality that will not be spurned by the well off even when the scarcity of oil becomes a noticeable reality 1346 .
Society can be very conservative in those aspects of its operations that are not popularly deemed to be progressive
1348
. Skeptics generally foster this slowness to respond. There have been warnings about the dangers of over population
1349
for centuries but few measures have been instigated
1350
. A proposal to mitigate
1351
climate change
1352 was made decades ago but action is only slowly being instigated
1353
now following a major scientific effort
1354
to establish its likelihood. Business, as usual, is looking for opportunities in climate change to make a profit by contributing to mitigation
1356
. The oil supply crunch has not yet received that acclaim
1357
.
One of the insidious results of this personal energy
1359
drive is the belief in the need to obtain material symbols
1360
of their success to bolster their self-esteem. The drive to acquire wealth
1361
is an oxymoron as it puts the emphasis on work at the expense of quality of living. These material symbols of their personal energy are produced at the cost of wasting the limited natural bounty. They constitute an unnecessary draw down of this bounty with very questionable benefit
1362
for the perpetrators of this ravishing
1363
.
Society has condoned, even encouraged and assisted, the belief that some people are superior to the majority, without justification
1365
in most cases. These elite people have presumed the right to expropriate common resources, by fair means 1366 or foul 1367 . It has been a reinforcing feedback mechanism (RFM) 1368 that is continually accentuating the differential between the ‘haves’ and the ‘have nots’. The elite are predators feeding on the prey, the rest of their communities, as well as on the ecosystem. This distinction has applied to individuals, to communities and to countries for millennia. It means that these elite entities have a distinct advantage in facing the future
1369
. And their advantages are passed on
1370
. This social diversity is a reality that exists today and will doubtless
88

continue. It enables the predators to glut themselves on the natural resources while the prey can barely subsist. It is an insidious disease of our society. There is no apparent cure and it is most likely to continue to exacerbate the sickening of the Body
1371
.
Looking at it in another way, we have a society in which a few use all available means to exploit natural resources, including other people, to satisfy their lust. This reality is unsustainable. It has so drawn down on the irreplaceable natural bounty that it cannot continue, although the elite will not be the ones to miss out – until trickle up hits them.
This imbalance has been accentuated by the common practice of usurping the rules for personal gain
1374
, generally by financial means
1375
. Corruption
1376
has always been an element in the operation of society but it has become rampant in many forms
1377
.
That is a harsh reality that has a significant influence on the ravaging of the ecosystem and is most likely to continue even as the Body ages noticeably for most
1378
. It is ironical that an aspect of this corruption, counterfeit drugs
1379
, is actually contributing to population control
1380
.
Personal energy has an equivalent in the community that we shall call ‘social energy’ 1382
. It is another intangible but a very powerful force not subject to the constraints of the Laws of Thermodynamics. It is often manifested by government policies that have a big influence on the direction the communities take
1383
. There are signs
1384
of an emerging benevolent force
1385
that could lead to the Earthly
Revolution
1386
.
Colonialism of various types has been a reality for centuries
1388
. This has enabled many countries 1389 to become ‘rich’ 1390 by using resources from other regions 1391 . The figures below put this matter in perspective for industrial energy only.
Country /Region Population in millions
USA+Canada 320
Europe 450
Russian Fed. 150
China 1,300
India 1,000
89

Rest of the world 3,300
Country/Region Affluence(in MToes
1392
)
USA+Canada 2,654
Europe 2,100
Russian Fed. 680
China 1,554
India 387
Rest of the World 3,162
Country /Region Per Capita Affluence (MToes/Inhabitant)
USA+ Canada 8.29
Europe 4.66
Russian Fed. 4.53
China 1.19
India 0.38
Rest of the World 0.96
Many of the bourgeois in Asia now have the leverage to emulate Westerners in their pursuit of affluence, that is, entail an unsustainable eco cost in order to have a wasteful standard of living. However, the explosively increasing masses in the fragile countries are hard put to get even food and water
1393
, much less what most people regard as essentials.
The perceived requirement to have a defensive capability has blossomed so it now entails the allocation of appreciable resources for essentially a non-productive purpose 1395 . It also provides a reinforcing feedback mechanism (RFM) 1396 . This has fostered the development of self-organization, but certainly not self-regulation, industrial/military complexes
1397
. The irony is that the demand
1398
for their services to ensure energy security 1399 is escalating 1400 just as their ability is declining because they are so industrial energy dependent
1401
and are attuned for conventional warfare
1402
. It will
take time and other, intellectual and natural, resources to adapt to meeting asymmetrical
threats
1403
.
90

There has been an explosive growth in recent centuries in the amount of information readily available
1405
. This has enabled an associated explosive growth
1406
in the knowledge that peoples have available to them about how society and natural systems operate
1407
as well as much trivia. This growth has been linked to the state of development of communities, so exacerbating the differential 1408 . This growth of knowledge has encouraged the myth that humans are able to control the operations of the ecosystem. There are now some harsh lessons to be learnt 1409 . The harshest reality is that there is a lot we do not understand about how the ecosystem behaves 1410 .
This growth of knowledge
1412
has enabled the explosive growth of the tools by which society uses natural resources for a variety of purposes, some useful
1413
but many quite destructive
1414
. Faith in the ability of technology to solve emerging problems is one of the delusions that we will have to come to grips with
1415
.
The combination of knowledge and tools has enabled the use of fossil fuels to power the development of industrial civilization. Society has operated under the delusion that this benefaction of cheap energy can continue unabated. It has enabled a proportion of the global community to believe their standard of living can continue to improve. This ability to fool ourselves is an unbelievable reality. The belated recognition
1417
of the limited supply of these fuels combined with the harm their use does is now leading to a slow reactionary transition
1418
in some regions
1419
.
The unintended reality of the flagrant use of the fossil fuels in the industrialized countries is the initiation of global climate change
1421
. And these countries are doing very little to limit their damaging activities
1422
. The developing countries are starting to have a significant impact 1423 . Those countries that made little contribution to this disaster 1424 will, nevertheless, have to adapt as best they are able
1425
. Ironically, one of the victim countries, Australia, is concentrating on reducing GHG emissions 1426 rather than fostering adaptation 1427 .
This combination has also facilitated the explosive growth in food production
1429 by synthetic means 1430 . This is another era that is seen by the knowledgeable to be ending
1431
. Air
1432
, food
1433
and water
1434
are the basic essentials for human life. The provision of these for the majority in the developed countries has been taken for granted
91

but that presumption is based on false premises
1435
. The billions who do not get enough of the essentials have little say in what goes on!
The combination of these realities has been a major factor in enabling the explosive growth of the human population
1437
. There are clear signs that there are too many people, especially in identifiable regions 1438 . There are also clear signs emerging that the plague is now ending in some regions
1439
.
It is almost as though society is not satisfied with over populating this sphere because over consumption is endemic to a high proportion of that population. This wasteful use of natural resources is another of the grim realities of modern society, especially as it produces so much more waste. Most people believe they have a right to devastate the ecosystem as much as they can afford
1441
. A culture change
1442
to accord with reality will not be easy but it will have to occur to some degree, with the rich, countries
1443
and people, lagging!
This combination of realities has enabled a much higher proportion of the intellectual energy of the community to be devoted to developing the edifice of civilization rather than maintaining the crumbling foundations
1445
. The copious supply of industrial energy from the fossil fuels has facilitated automation replacing human labor in many circumstances. It has also changed the views of society at large. It has fostered the urbanized consumer culture
1446
. This specialization
1447
is a developing wasteful reality that will not be easy to slow down and reverse
1448
. It is coupled with the social divergence that has down graded the manual worker
1449
.
The combination of these myths and realities has led to the current depressing scene 1451 . There is still little realization that the exploitation of the irreplaceable fossil fuels has enabled industrialization and the Green Revolution, so the population explosion, while causing climate change 1452 and much damage by pollution. What a mistake! Now we have to live with it, if we can.
There has been talk for centuries of the possibility of Armageddon. Armageddon is commonly regarded as being an apocalyptic catastrophe. Apocalypticism is a worldview based on the idea that important matters are esoteric in nature ("hidden") and they will soon be revealed in a major confrontation of earth-shaking magnitude that will change the course of history
1454
. There really is good reason to believe that it has arrived.
92

And a large part of the reason society has gone down this faulty path is ignorance of some natural laws and axioms on how we use natural resources unsustainably. The purpose of this essay is to enunciate these laws and axioms. This will provide understanding of what went wrong.
I believe I have understanding of what went wrong. I develop below some fundamental factors that govern what human operations have really done to the ecosystem but they just provide sustenance to the myths, misperceptions and realities considered above. This view is not common knowledge yet I would have thought that many knowledgeable people would now have an intuitive grasp of the consequences of the runaway industrial development
1456
. I am therefore mystified at the current activities of some of the big corporations. I can understand heads of government going along with the economic growth paradigm, especially as their major advisors seem to be economists
1457
and the major indicators are GDP
1458
, unemployment figures and the polls.
Big Business, however, has to look ahead in many cases as it often takes appreciable time
to realize a return on their investment
1459
. The oil companies have shown some signs for years of being chary about investments in exploration
1460
. I would have expected that the
aerospace giants, Boeing and Airbus, would have applied the precautionary principle
1461
yet they have both come up with new airliners that with business as usual would be expected to still be flying well beyond 2050. I find this response and others like it in various major industries very mysterious even though there is no real reason to doubt my pronogstication.
One of the outstanding developments in the past century or so has been the invention of many novel goods and services that have had a major impact on the way society operates. The achievements of research and development are widely acclaimed as contributing to progress. These claims are justified where they make worthwhile contributions to operations without evoking a prohibitive eco cost. The explosive growth of military capabilities
1463
can hardly be rationally justified
1464
. It is mysterious
1465
, moreover, that there are many attempts to emulate satisfactory natural processes, at the expense of appreciable eco cost, for no really worthwhile gain
1466
and often with unintended consequences
1467
.
93

It follows that there is appreciable irony in the operation of civilization
1469
. For example, there is currently a road, rail and air transportation crisis in over-crowded
England. The plans of government and business to ease this predicament
1470
are bound to be aided appreciably by something they cannot control
1471
, the declining supply of transportation fuel. Some commentators deem it ironical that the declining supply of fossil fuels will assist the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions needed to mitigate climate change to a small degree. They do not appreciate that this decline will be too late to foster significant mitigation 1472 . That can only come about with a major global reduction in emissions in the near future
1473
.
It is ironical that industrialized countries have used up an appreciable amount of irreplaceable natural bounty
1475
to build up their synthetic materialistic capability, consisting of the temporary operational capability of the Body, coupled with the rapidly growing haphazard capability of the Mind.
It is easy to blame the rich for the plundering of the natural bounty but that would be wrong in many countries. This small minority lead an exuberant life style but it does not evoke a commensurate eco cost
1477
. However, they do manage to limit the eco cost of the finacialy constrained majority to some extent
1478
.
These ironies are as nothing compared to the impact of the development of civilization on the behavior of Gaia. The rapidly emerging signs of climate change are strong indications that the self-regulating operations of Gaia cannot cope well with some of the disruptions introduced in the civilizing process. There are many other, more subtle
1480
, signs
1481
that have been largely ignored. The irony is that Gaia gives very little warning of the most serious consequence of civilization’s malfeasance, depletion of the core natural bounty capital
1482
. Society will have to demonstrate its cleverness by adapting to the decline in this major source of industrial energy in a timely and sound fashion. There is still very little sign of this cleverness. The developing trivial reponse to climate change is being offset by the continuing desperate striving
1483
for industrial energy security 1484 to enable the economic growth so beloved by governments because it can be marketed as progress while providing businesses with profit
1485
. This lack of cleverness is ensuring that the inevitable collapse
1486
will be more traumatic than necessary.
94

The current scene
The previous chapter provides insight into many detail aspects of what has happened to the ecosystem during the development of civilization. It now appropriate to gather this detail together. Substantiation of the crucial materialistic points then follows. For this consolidation, I invoke the analogy of the games played in the Mind of civilization while the Body sickens to aid understanding of what our decisions are doing to the operation of the natural ecosystem, Gaia
1488 . I use the terms ‘Mind’ ‘Tumor’, ‘Brain’, ‘Spirit’ and
‘Body’ with capitals to facilitate the illustration. Civilization has built up its Body on
Gaia with the Brain making use of the available natural bounty, mainly under the
(mis)direction of the Tumor. It has vastly modified the operation of the ecosystem. That is the reality. It is generally regarded as an achievement of Homo sapiens
1489
. That is a delusion because this mode of operation of the ecosystem is not sustainable. There is a continuing commitment to draw down on the natural bounty to temporarily maintain the
Body. It has also achieved a build up pleasing elements of the Mind, the Spirit and the
Brain, but at the cost of growth of the Tumor
1490
.
Our global civilization increasingly runs on money chasing illusory progress
1492
.
That is the popular Mind game
1493
led by the Tumor
1494
. The business and political
1495 elite foster the economic growth paradigm, without regard to the true cost, termed eco cost here
1496
. The proletariat does its utmost to make good in a situation it has to accept without really understanding what it is doing wrong
1497
. Conventional economics
1498 recognizes two forms of capital, produced and natural, that contribute to the productivity of assets. This view does not take into account that produced capital is not subject to natural laws that underpin operations 1499 , whilst natural capital is 1500 . Ecological economists 1501 have recognized the fault in this conventional economics logic but they have been largely repudiated
1502
by classical economists and ignored by society at large 1503 . Conventional economics 1504 continues to dominate the operations of society.
Money rules
1505
. The undoubted technological developments in recent times have been largely due to advances in knowledge
1506
and technology driven by money
1507
and
95

prestige
1508
, coupled with the presumed right
1509
to use natural energy and material resources
1510
exuberantly. Economic growth
1511
is increasingly an abstraction based on information
1512
and money
1513
. It can be likened to a hallucinating part of the Mind due to a Tumor. The predicament is being worsened by the developing countries trying desperately to emulate the developed world 1514 . This view encourages growth in consumption of food
1515
and stuff
1516
. Growth in the foundations of civilization, the infrastructure 1517 , is increasingly given a lower priority 1518 . Consequently, there is growing unease amongst a thinking minority 1519 about the health of the Body of our civilization. The growth of the infrastructure supporting the operations of the rapidly increasing population is undoubted but insufficient to meet expanding needs
1520
. That is, what is termed here as the order
1521
of the Body of civilization was increasing but not keeping up with the illusory Mind, the pretensions of society in general and the elite, in particular. Yet some perceptive people see this increasing Body growth as coming at the cost of gross decimation of natural resources: an increase in disorder
1522
in Gaia
1523
. In addition, there are some
1524
at all levels of society who regard current consumption trends as being unsustainable as they are further reducing order in Gaia
1525
. Improved communications
1526
have enabled a more egalitarian addressing of these issues but the powerful have yet to respond to the developing unease
1527
. Science is being looked to for guidance
1528
on what is happening
1529
, but is often distracted by attempting to advance the frontiers of knowledge
1530
. Consequently, effective measures to mitigate the situation are still lacking. This failure seems to be partially due to confusion
1531
about the nature of the holistic predicament
1532
. The objective of this essay is to clarify some of these aspects by
showing that the holistic predicament is based on the Dependence on Nature Law , so the
consequences of depreciating the limited natural capital. The operation of the Body of civilization is constrained in a manner formalized to some extent by natural laws 1533 and axioms 1534 but the Mind of civilization is free to pursue lofty ideals 1535 . The thinking behind these fundamental aspects is not new
1536
but, quite clearly, not appreciated by the vast majority, including the seeming knowledgeable 1537 .
Discussions about the operations of our society are almost invariably based on the monetary cost. Economies dominate the news with ecology and the environment hardly rating a mention
1539
until global warming
1540
made the ratings recently. The fact that we
96

are drawing down on natural capital does not even appear on the agenda unless scarcity makes itself felt
1541
. That misperception is the reality of our illusory system. That is the anthropogenic view. That view needs to be put aside in reading this essay if the fundamental issues are to be appreciated. The discussion is about ecological operations and the decisions that activate them. That is, we will be looking only at what actually happens in the environment
1542
, natural and built
1543
. The fiscal influence on these decisions should be seen as an indication of the appropriateness of the financial measures rather than the other way around 1544 . Money moves should be viewed as being reactive to what happens in these operations rather than proactive. The power of money leads to both good and bad decisions. It is like market forces
1545
. They drive the bad, like consumption
1546
, as well as the good, like what? Nothing comes to mind at the moment
1547
! So on to adjusting our mindset to look at what human activities have done to the operation of the ecosystem without our view being distorted by the monetary influence
1548
.
The distorting influence of money on the common perception of the operation of the ecosystem is a crucial point. We can emphasize its impact by considering the example of a coal-fired power station. The financial cost of its construction, operation and eventual demolition is recovered by charging for the electricity that is supplied during its operational life
1550
. Money serves its fundamental purpose as a medium of exchange. It is not a measure of the total eco cost. That is largely discounted. Civilization has presumed the right to use the natural bounty without factoring in the fact that it is a draw down of an irreplaceable resource and entails other un-repayable ecological costs. The conventional view is that the power station provides us with something of value 1551 in the operation of society. The true, long-term cost is not taken into account.
We are continually made aware of the advances in technology that are supposedly
going to make our lives better. We are conditioned to believe that the technofix 1553
will solve the developing problems. It is not surprising, therefore, that we have a prejudiced view of what technology has done 1554 and can do to ease the deficiencies in the Body of civilization and the perturbations to Gaia. To get understanding from this essay, it is necessary to appreciate what influence technology has had on what human activities are doing to the operation of the ecosystem. First and foremost, it has enabled society to use
97

natural resources, particularly the irreplaceable fossil fuels, in an exuberant fashion. That is, technology has enabled our civilization to get to the parlous state that it is in. So, despite the conditioning we get that technology is a ‘good’ it should really be blamed for so misleading us
1555
. Secondly, there is the common view that technology will enable us to solve 1556 the problems we have created 1557 . Doubtless technology will make contributions where they are applied with good judgment
1558
and without the prejudice that is so common 1559
. The belief in the technofix 1560
is one of the principle reasons why action on many issues has not started 1561 .
Earth's thermal regulation balance: 492 W/m 2 coming in, 492 W/m 2 going out, when we don't mess with it. Diagram from this excellent 1996 paper by U. Wash. Prof. Dennis
Hartmann
A number of issues are belatedly starting to receive wide spread attention.
Climate change
1563
heads the media rankings at the moment. Warnings sounded out for decades by knowledgeable climatologists and like specialists
1564
are now being listened
98

to although actual action is sparse
1565
. Over population
1566
is seen to be a predicament in many regions
1567
. Over consumption and its kin, obesity, has a high ranking in the U.S. and Australia . Developments have overshot the capabilities of the natural life support systems
1568
. The carrying capacity of many global regions has been exceeded already
1569
.
Our ecological footprint 1570 is so large that we need more than one Earth 1571 to continue to meet our wants and needs
1572
. Peak oil
1573
is now a common term
1574
but some argue that peak food 1575 and peak water 1576 are more immediate symptoms of the general malaise in some regions 1577 particularly in undeveloped countries. There is growing reason to believe peak coal
1578
will have a great impact in the near future. Climate change
1579
is starting to precipitate action
1580
in some countries
1581
, albeit without understanding
1582
that it is a problem that cannot be solved
1583
, only adapted to
1584
and mitigated to some extent, primarily by reducing the emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Pollution
1585
is increasingly seen as a health
1586
hazard
1587
. Losses of geodiversity
1588
, biodiversity
1589
and species extinctions
1590
are also causing concern in some quarters
1591
. There are worries about possible pandemics
1592
. The increasing range in social diversity hardly rates a mention
1593
in view of the other predicaments. It is quite amazing that there is very little discussion about allocating the natural resources to maintain the infrastructure of civilization
1594
. It is somewhat surprising that there is argument amongst the apparently informed
1595
about which of these symptoms is the most serious
1596
rather than regard them as all symptoms of the holistic malaise
1597
. For example, Legget said in a recent U.S. conference that climate change
1598
and peak oil
1599 are the Two Great Oversights
1600
of our times
1601
. He made no mention of how the population explosion in the States is contributing to these two predicaments 1602 . The
EU
1603
is focusing on energy security
1604
with many deleterious consequences
1605
as businesses seize at what they regard as opportunities for them 1606 – to make more money!
All these signs are consistent with global entropic growth 1607 and the declining natural bounty capital.
99

Concentrating on providing alternative sources of industrial energy, an emerging major activity in industrialized countries, does not contribute to easing the population 1609 predicament 1610 in a humanitarian 1611 manner or to help with the other predicaments 1612 .
Business plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by carbon trading 1613 does not help those low lying Pacific Island communities
1614
that are being hit by the rising
1615
sea level 1616 and other consequences 1617 of climate change. Providing smaller cars with electric or hybrid drive only alleviates the transport crisis to a small degree
1618
. Plans to increase the global airliner fleet with A380 and the Boeing Dreamliner will be seen by those prepared to look and think to be ‘pies in the sky’ 1619
. They will understand that the major requirement is to reduce the need for all forms of transport
1620
to the essential
1621
.
They will appreciate that plans by the Victorian government to dredge Port Philip Bay so the largest container vessels can enter will not realize the expected benefits
1622
. The need to expand Melbourne’s docking capability will have dissipated but the ecological damage will have been done
1623
. World trade will have flopped as the fuel costs hit profits
1624
.
100

Global oil extraction in the past century
We can liken the way civilization is operating to a car with an old engine accelerating as it goes down the highway. The driver (the elite) has eyes only for the vision (of $) in front as the foot continues to press down on the accelerator. The passenger (the masses) dozes. The over-heating engine (the Body of civilization) churns through the fuel so the tank (of natural capital) is emptying rapidly. The journey cannot long continue. It is an unsustainable process. The analogy does break down because no real driver ignores the dials showing the engine temperature and how much fuel is left.
Civilization does so because the controlling elite is blinded by power and money and the
delusion of the technofix 1626
.
It will aid understanding of what is happening to keep this car analogy in mind.
We are all familiar with acceleration, speed and fuel consumption yet there are numerous views of what is happening that are erroneous because of lack of appreciation of the
101

relation between the equivalent of acceleration, speed and fuel usage in the way society operates. Economic growth is akin to acceleration while the use of exhaustible natural capital is emptying the tank. The renowned ecological economist Daly
1628
argues for a society with constant wealth and population with a constant rate of resource usage. He is arguing for a constant speed of society maintained by a constant rate of fuel usage. This view is inexplicable
1629
. It makes no sense even though most of his views are sound. It presumes an unlimited supply of industrial energy and materials 1630 . That is, it presumes a fuel tank of infinite capacity. This erroneous thinking permeates much of the discussion about economies
1631
.
The purpose of this essay is to enunciate two axioms that really do underpin the operation of modern society
1633
. They are based on the combination of every-day experience but backed by sound science. However, they are not a common view
1634
. They
form the basis of the Dependence on Nature Law , enunciated above. The first axiom
1635 is based on the fact that the operation of systems
1636
using natural material and energy resources are invariably irreversible
1637
. This state of affairs is formalized in the natural laws, the First
1638
, Second
1639
and Fourth
1640
Laws of Thermodynamics
1641
. This irreversibility causes no problems in those natural processes that are cyclic, like the water, carbon and nitrogen flows discussed later. This flow irreversibility does mean, however, that the draw down of the natural material capital is not sustainable when the flow is not cyclic. Each of the draw-downs ensures that the exhaustible material
1642
ends up as waste at the end of its life
1643
, regardless of what it was used for
1644
. It means that we cannot continue to devastate the environment with our material toxic wastes
1645
. The supply of the materials is declining. This response to what is happening includes mitigating and adapting to climate change
1646
as well as to many forms of pollution
1647
. It means we will become increasingly reliant on natural replenishment for most of our material needs 1648 . We will have to live with the fact that there is no replenishment of copper, zinc and the numerous other minerals
1649
. And there is very little that can be done about fertile soil 1650 and aquifer water 1651 .
This flow irreversibility also means that the draw down of the concentrated industrial energy capital, primarily from the fossil fuels, is not sustainable so we will have to become increasingly reliant on weak energy income, insolation
1653
. Oil is starting
102

to become scarce while the emissions from coal combustion are causing major predicaments. As a consequence of this draw down of natural energy and material capital and the consequential production of wastes
1654
, Gaia is weakening
1655
. This devastation of
Gaia is a consequence of the build up of the transient
1656
Body of civilization
1657 as well as supplying society’s needs and wants. There are no novel aspects of this Consequence
Axiom theory. It is ignored, however, by almost everyone, including scientists who should know better. It is, in my opinion, an illustration of the conditioning that our education system bestows. We are taught to believe that money controls all aspects of the operation of society, including, mistakenly, what happens to the ecological foundations when we use them for our purposes. We are taught that we were clever to invent means of using natural resources without taking into account the consequences
1658
. We are taught the delusion that playing Mind games is okay
1659
and we need not worry about the health of civilization’s Body or of Gaia
1660
.
The second axiom (the Freedom Axiom) is that there are no natural laws that constrain decisions made by humans about the use of these natural resources
1663
. That means we can continue with the delusion we can use these resources without regard to possible deleterious consequences
1664
. The necessary wisdom to see that we cannot continue to do so has not developed
1665
. We do not have an effective feedback system that says ‘enough is enough’ 1666 . We regard civilization as making ‘progress’ even as its natural material support base disintegrates
1667
. Society is playing a delusional Mind game
1668
even as its Body sickens. It has hallucinations.
I will comment on some misleading terminology
1670
as a preliminary to addressing the central issue, the natural laws and axioms that determine our activities are unsustainable. It is common to quote rates in discussing developments. For example, percentage values of economic growth and inflation are often mentioned with the fact that they are the increases over one year often just being implied. This has created the common view that these numbers are measures of the health of the economy
1671
and the fact that they are rates is largely forgotten. On the other hand, percentage unemployment values are measures of level of employment, not the rate at which unemployment is increasing. This point can be clarified by again using the analogy of driving a car because most people are familiar with that operation. The economic growth and inflation figures
103

are analogous to how fast the car is accelerating. The unemployment figures are an indication of the speed. None of these, of course, give any indication of how much fuel is left in the tank. That is one of the missing links in society’s paradigm. They take it for granted that the present ‘progress’ can continue ad nauseum 1672
. It can be argued that our leaders do have an intuitive feel for the real meaning of these figures. They do see them as speed and acceleration. However, the conventional terminology is misleading to the general public 1673 .
That argument about perceptions of our leaders does not hold up when we examine the widespread view
1675
of what greenhouse gas emissions
1676
are doing to the global climate
1677
. Global warming
1678
and the consequent climate change
1679
are the fast speed at which this natural phenomenon is now moving following the acceleration due to past greenhouse gas emissions
1680
. Reducing the rate of these emissions
1681
will only slow the acceleration down
1682
. It will not stop the speed of climate change
1683
.
Unfortunately the emissions are still increasing despite all the rhetoric
1684
. This means global warming is still accelerating although aerosols are having a dimming effect
1685
.
Stopping these emissions altogether when the fossil fuels are depleted will only mean that the speed of climate change will remain roughly the same
1686
. Our burning of fossil fuels has already accelerated the climate change car up to high speed
1687
. And this car has very bad brakes
1688
. The momentum is too great
1689
. Nature can only absorb these levels of greenhouse gases by slow evolutionary changes
1690
. The common view that climate change can be tackled by reducing emissions is wrong
1691
. It can only be slowed down
1692
. This misperception about the impact of reducing emissions is doing harm by fostering misdirection of scarce resources 1693 , although businesses are starting to see it as an opportunity
1694
– for them to make money in new activities. This response to climate change is becoming another hallucinating Mind game 1695 .
The Body of human civilization is a synthetic construct on Gaia. This fact needs to be borne in mind in assessing what human activities have done to the ecosystem. Many of the methods we employ are not adequate substitutes for natural methods that have evolved over eons
1697
. We attempt to emulate nature without understanding the possibility of unintended consequences
1698
or appreciating the eco costs
1699
. We have not widely exercised the precautionary principle
1700
. Recognizing these limitations of human
104

achievements with respect to relations with the ecosystem should not be construed as belittling the many intellectual, technological and cultural achievements outside of that sphere
1701
. But we do need to recognize these limitations on ecological operations because of the consequences. What we have done to Gaia and the Body of civilization cannot continue and cannot be undone 1702 . It is not possible and the sooner this is widely recognized the more likely the adoption of worthwhile adaptation and mitigation measures.
There is plenty of circumstantial evidence to support the two proposed axioms yet they are largely ignored in the day-to-day operations of society. People generally do not think about the many signs that something is wrong
1704
. We have been conditioned to believe society is progressing and there are indications of this
1705
. I will not speculate here on why this crooked thinking is so or on what the long-term consequences may be
1706
. I will just concentrate for now on the support for these fundamental axioms, based upon what has actually happened
1707
.
There are many different outlooks amongst the knowledgeable. Some have already been
discussed . They convey a confusing view of how society is operating.
Economic growth is the conventional paradigm yet it is quite clearly leading to the terminal draw down of natural capital
1709
, the devastation of the environment
1710
and to climate change
1711
and other predicaments like aspects of animal health
1712
. This view is based on that misleading abstraction, money. Our civilization does not pay enough for drawing down on natural capital
1713
. It does not pay enough for producing toxic waste that degrades the environment
1714
. It does not pay enough for polluting the air
1715
we breathe 1716 and the water we drink 1717 . It does not pay enough for destroying
biodiversity
1718
. It does not pay enough for what it does to geodiversity
1719
. It does not pay enough for remedying the damage we have already done 1720 . But it does pay more than enough those who play Mind games 1721 . An object of this essay is to isolate aspects of ecological reality from mental delusions. Consequently, there is little further mention of money in this chapter because it is not a part of the reality of how ecological systems operate. The same applies to the oft-proclaimed technological advances. They influence how natural resources are used but they have not provided any effective substitutes for
105

natural resources
1722
. We like to think we humans are smart. Our cleverness does affect the decisions we make, but not the consequences of the resulting operations
1723
.
It will help to clarify the role of money and economics in this examination to consider eco accounting the daily operations of a community. These involve the usage of amounts of the fossil fuels and other exhaustible minerals. They include the usage of some replenishable materials such as wood, food and water. They involve the exhaust of
waste gases, liquids and solids. They may include actions that affect biodiversity 1725
and or geodiversity. The accounting, however, would not include money, as it is not involved in these physical operations.
Technology has applied some lessons learnt by science to produce a vast array of processes and artifacts, many of which are clearly beneficial while incurring a significant eco cost
1727
. They represent good worth
1728
. Most of these processes have enabled society to draw down on natural capital while devastating the environment to some extent. The eco cost is high so they do not represent good worth in many cases. Business has been one the main drivers behind these apparent accomplishments. But science and technology have provided the basic know how behind these successes, and failures. Less attention has been paid to the failure to provide sound insight into the workings of nature
1729
. I will not examine here the role of technology, business and government in determining what happens in the ecosystem operations. They play a major part in the how and why of the raping of the ecosystem, but not what happens and the consequences. I concentrate on the two major reasons for what has happened, the
free decision
1730
to activate ecological
operations that are inherently limited
1731
in their operation. The hallucinating Mind is intimidating the unhealthy 1732 Body of civilization, so speeding up the degrading of the ecosystem.
I am couching this essay in terms that I believe a curious, intelligent, thinking person, but without deep scientific knowledge, can readily understand. Nevertheless, at the same time, a knowledgeable person with deeper understanding of geobiophysics will judge it to be soundly based. Elaboration is contained in the endnotes. Often they show that contrary views have been taken into account.
There are two aspects that I believe should be clarified here to prevent a degree of misperception because of conventional bias. Firstly, we are examining what is happening
106

to the material foundations of our civilization. These foundations consist of the infrastructure that has been put in place together with the goods that are produced and material services that are provided. I believe this explication of what is being examined is necessary because most similar examinations look only at the goods and services. As we are well aware, the construction of infrastructure carries a commitment for maintenance and subsequent demolition that embraces the future use of natural resources
1735
. That needs to be accounted for in the eco cost but I am not aware of any mechanism to do so realistically 1736 .
Secondly, the operation of this Body of civilization requires the use of both energy and materials. That is readily understood yet most examinations concentrate on industrial energy only. We are aware that electricity and transport fuels have played and continue to play a crucial role in the development and operation of industrialized society.
The current concerns about the supply
1738
of industrial energy are clearly justified
1739
.
Materials
1740
, however, have also played a major role
1741
. This has, in the opinion of quite a few informed people, been underplayed with dire consequences
1742
. Both components of natural resources are covered here for completeness
1743
.
The objective then is to clarify what human-devised activities have done to the
operation of the ecosystem. These synthetic activities have characteristics that differ from
the natural ones
1745
. As a consequence, they inherently degrade the ecosystem. Some of these results are globalized while the majority is localized. The regional impact does vary appreciably and trading of resources, financial investment
1746
and migration
1747
of personnel affect it. The influence of these factors is discussed later.
What does science have to offer?
It is a common view
1749
that science can provide insight
1750
into what humans can do
1751
.
That is, in my opinion, a misperception
1752
. The objective in science is for humans to gain insight into how nature operates by observation, measurement and reasoning. Scientific understanding is therefore implicitly less than how nature really operates
1753
. There continues to be appreciable controversial discussion about the merits of scientific
107

knowledge versus religious belief. The only point of relevance here is that scientific knowledge illuminates only a sub set of natural reality. It is an anthropogenic view
1754 that can be very misleading when looking at ecosystem operations
1755
.
Most scientists are employed
1757
as specialists in fields where the principle endeavors are in novel areas 1758 , substituting for or emulating natural processes 1759 . Much is made of the progress that has been made in emulating natural processes without much discussion 1760 as why this emulation may be necessary or even desirable 1761 or, in many cases, the consequences of applying the science 1762 . Advances in the frontiers of science are acclaimed
1763
. Those sciences that examine natural capital draw down, loss of
biodiversity
1764
and geodiversity
1765
, species extinction
1766
, global warming
1767
and other misdemeanors
1768
do not receive the same acclaim
1769
. The inability of ecological economics to have much impact is just one example of the prejudicial view
1770
of those who do not understand the underlying science
1771
. The well-reasoned case that economics was really a sub-system of operation of the ecology was developed some decades ago.
However, classical economists
1772
have managed to sideline ecological economics because it showed up the fallacy of economic growth, the handmaiden of capitalism
1773
.
Some indication of the current misleading perspective portrayed by prominent scientists is contained in ‘The Next Fifty Years: Science in the First Half of the Twenty-
First Century’. It contains twenty-five essays on expected advances. There is not one that examines the likely impact of the depletion of the natural resources, what can be done about the devastation of the environment or the disruption to geodiversity and
biodiversity . There is no mention of the possibility of better understanding of climate
change even though IPCC has been one of the finest collaborative efforts by scientists and its findings have been gradually consolidated for over a decade
1775
. The authors in
‘The Next Fifty Years’ give every appearance of believing that we can continue to misuse these natural resources exuberantly. There is a fascinating article 1776 on risk management of a ‘post’ human society. It deals with the possible impact on society of a number of technological advances like nanotechnology 1777 . It is ironical that this work entails risk analysis yet presumes that industrial society will continue to ‘progress’ despite the clear empirical evidence of what it is doing to its life support system. The author goes so far as to judge the decline of civilization due to resource scarcity as being a low risk! This
108

belief in the continuing availability of the vital natural resources is despite the clear evidence that oil, for example, is running out
1778
. Even today the markedly increased price of transport fuels is trumpeted as being due to a variety of political and or economic factors
1779
. Those knowledgeable people (many with vast experience in the oil industry) that have pointed out that the easy oil has already been discovered, extracted and burnt have not been listened to despite calling out for decades
1780
. M King Hubbert presented a warning to the U.S. Senate back in 1975, to no effect. Many prominent scientists 1781 and commentators 1782 now publicly accept that fossil fuel emissions have precipitated climate change
1783
. There are skeptics
1784
, who, for some reason, deny the evidence, thereby encouraging governments
1785
to dither and procrastinate further, often because they have little understanding of the scientific view
1786
. In another recent examination of science,
David Ellyard ends his ‘Who discovered what when’ with ‘2001 and Beyond’. It is a chapter dealing with hypothesized advances in science in coming years. It is typically concerned with the frontiers rather than with the foundations. Only the last paragraph mentions major issues like global warming and the best use of resources. Even there, he couples them with genetic engineering and nanotechnology
1787
, two technologies aimed as a substitute of questionable worth for natural processes
1788 . ‘Predictions’, Edited by
Sian Griffiths contains thirty essays by prominent specialists in various fields. Richard
Dawkins (the originator of the term ‘meme’) believes that in this century we will finally understand what consciousness is and how it works. This is interesting because I take the view below that we are aware of our consciousness and the resulting ability to make decisions. We do not need to understand how we got that ability. We do need, however, to appreciate the consequences of these decisions 1789 , as examined here. Paul Davies also talks about consciousness but goes on to speculate on producing thinking machines
1790
.
My comment is that he should be thinking about the Body of civilization instead of having his head in the clouds. Surprisingly for this type of book, Sherwood Rowland gives a very glib view of carbon sequestration
1791
. However, he is the only one amongst the essayists to tackle the foundational predicaments we should be facing. The lesson has yet to be learnt that we have to shore up the crumbling foundations of civilization if we are to continue with building up the edifice
1792
. Advances in information handling will only continue to be possible if the necessary infrastructure and goods continue to be
109

available
1793
. It seems that we have still much to learn from previous experience of unintended consequences of novel scientific forays
1794
. There are many who have regretted that we learnt the secrets of nuclear reactions
1795
! My grandchildren will bemoan the fact that they have been left with little fuel for cars
1796
!
I was at a loss to understand how so many scientists seem to have the wrong perspective
1798
. So I did some research. This soon convinced me that my views were not uncommon 1799 . S makes fascinating reading as it details some of the mistakes made by scientists over the centuries. Martin also makes some relevant comments 1800 . We are used to being regaled about their advances
1801
so it was refreshing to read about the other side of the coin. I am not belittling the dedication and skills of the many scientists making contributions in their fields
1802
. I am not belittling the numerous contributions to understanding made by science. They are numerous and well known
1803
. They have made major contributions to the real advances
1804
of modern civilization. But the failures
1805 should also be made known so that a prejudiced view of the ability of science to provide understanding does not continue to prevail
1806
.
I believe it will aid in appreciating the inherent limitations of science to examine one particular facet in some detail
1808
. Scientists use models to assist in gaining understanding of how natural systems operate
1809
. The models are constructs by the modelers based on their understanding of the basic principles involved. These constructs generally contain assumptions and simplifications
1810
. As a consequence, the models contain less knowledge of the behavior of the system than the accumulated knowledge of the modelers
1811
. And the modelers have limited knowledge of the actual behavior
1812
.
The modelers limit the impact of this lack of knowledge by continual development of the models by comparison with the measured and observed past and current behavior of the system. That is, the model is adjusted to fit the available data as far as possible 1813 . There is invariably a degree of residual uncertainty about how well the model represents the prior events. This procedure enables a systematic development of insight by the modelers and of the veracity of the models. Comparison of the results from independently produced models helps this development appreciably
1814
. The models are then used for limited forecasting purposes. The intrinsic model uncertainty is accentuated in forecasting by the possibility of factors emerging that are not included in the model
1815
.
110

There is always the possibility of a most unlikely event occurring and having a major impact
1816
. Often, however, future holistic events can be predicted with great certainty and this provides a means of validating the basic structure of the model
1817
. These limitations of modeling are appreciated by the modelers
1818
but not by those in power
1819
.
The results from the models should be wisely combined with other sources 1820 of relevant information in drawing inferences
1821
.
Scientists tend to specialize for practical reasons. It takes a lot of time , study and
experience to gain a deep understanding in the chosen field. I worked hard as an aeronautical research scientist and gave little thought to what some geologists were saying about the limited supply of oil. I was an unthinking member of the car culture.
Physicists, engineers, geologists, climatologists and biologists seem to have little in common at that deep level. However, if looked at holistically, the interdependence
1823
of these fields becomes apparent. Lovelock’s Gaia theory is a particularly important example of what comes out of looking at the forest rather than the trees. There is growing recognition of the need for the systemic view rather than the reductionist view that has been so prevalent in the past. The fact remains, however, that civilization has gone down a destructive path without science providing an effective warning of what it was doing to the ecosystem.
I personally have developed over recent years the view that humans are arrogant in their outlook. The anthropocentric view is that we are in control of the operations of nature. The prejudicial nature of that view has come belatedly to me but it is not novel, although uncommon. Prigogine is deservedly renowned as a pioneer in the current revolution in scientific understanding of system dynamics, going from the classical linear to chaos dynamics. Yet he has the view that ‘science is a dialogue with nature’ 1825
. That carries the implication that we can tell nature what to do. That is a delusion that drives much of science today 1826 . Proposals to substitute human derived processes for natural ones are still quite common even though experience has shown that they are rarely better value than the natural process but incur an eco cost and can have unintended consequences
1827
.
There is a developing branch of science called biomimicry
1829
in which the aim is to learn from natural operations in order to arrive at improved synthetic methods. This is
111

a sound objective and indicates that some lessons have been learnt about the inadequacies of many previous substitution methods. However, the methods developed using this approach will still, as with all synthetic methods, have a limited life and evoke an eco cost. The product may be more worthwhile in the view of society to justify the additional draw down of the natural bounty and its temporary contribution. But these implicit disadvantages need to be recognized.
The airplane is a fascinating example of this dilemma. Humans yearned to emulate birds for millennia. The invention of more sophisticated tools in recent centuries enabled many to try various techniques, including following the birds by having flapping wings. Knowledge grew until a successful method evolved just over a century ago and the airplane was born. It, and its value to society, has grown rapidly
1831
. But the current versions come at a tremendous eco cost while their worth is now very doubtful
1832
and their longevity is very questionable
1833
.
Society puts much value in research and development programs because they have often resulted in improved mechanisms and products. These programs have required an up front investment of resources in the expectation of a future worthwhile return. The eco cost involved, however, is generally not taken into account realistically. This synthetic development process bears some similarity to natural evolution of the lifesupporting ecosystem. The eco cost of this natural development over a long period of
time is paid out of the natural income, primarily insolation. It follows that relatively rapid
synthetic development programs are worth the irrecoverable eco cost only in some circumstances, not generally identified by economics
1835
.
We should have been listening to what nature has said over centuries, like many earlier civilizations used to do. We might then have used the limited natural capital more wisely. We might have been less inclined to substitute our methods for perfectly good natural ones 1837 . We might then have carried out less de-forestation 1838 , paved over less fertile soil
1839
and drawn down less aquifer water
1840
. We might have been less inclined to congregate in impersonal cities 1841 . We would have used the fossil fuels more carefully
1842
. We would not have been so carried away with synthetic methods
1843
of food
1844
production
1845
and distribution
1846
. We would have been more selective in what we eat
1847
. We would have discouraged population growth
1848
. We would have made note
112

of how our forbears had made do rather than splash out. We may have been wiser before the event. Now is the time to wise up, as it is very late
1849
.
BIODIVERSITY
This presumption that we are in control gives people a distorted view of what is achievable and the consequences of their actions
1851
. This view seems to be common even amongst seemingly intelligent, knowledgeable scientists
1852
. We get confusing messages from science about what is achievable
1853
. It seems to many that scientists and technologists can solve the industrial energy supply predicament in a timely fashion
1854
.
That is extremely doubtful
1855
and if it did come to pass it could pass the buck to the overpopulation predicament
1856
. This misjudgment is very common amongst politicians, business people and the media
1857
. There are few exceptions even amongst scientists.
Surprisingly, one of the illuminaries, Georgescu-Roegen, was an economist who saw ecological reality over three decades ago. His insight has had very little influence, however. He pointed out that ‘matter matters too’ 1858 but that important point 1859 is still almost universally ignored
1860
. Civilization still goes on its merry way to selfdestruction 1861 .
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I can think of a number of factors that contribute to this distorted view. That speculation does not fall into the ambit of this essay. The major point is to recognize that it is a fact of life. That means that science does not necessarily provide the answers
1863
to the questions addressed here. In fact, it seems that for some reason scientists have not addressed these questions 1864 . There is an appreciable amount of work on the influence of the Laws of Thermodynamics
1865
but it does not seem to cover the broad aspects covered here 1866 . There is a lot of consideration of consciousness but I have been unable to find much about how our decisions are not constrained by natural laws. Yet that is shown below to be a major factor in what has gone wrong. Many unwise decisions have been made
1867
.
What we have done
This essay centres on the everyday world, as we, humans, know it, and experience it, and, if we think about it, understand what we have done to it. That is, the macroscopic operations on our ecosystem, Planet Earth, and what have happened to it in recent centuries, what is happening today so, to some extent, what is likely to happen in the near future. It examines how this devastation has occurred. It cannot be a static view as there is a need to take into account that the elements contributing to what is happening have lives that can span decades. These operations consequently constitute an ongoing ecological cost. It also means that our civilization has got up an appreciable momentum
1869
and it will take appreciable
time and other resources
1870
to change direction, once widespread understanding and motivation has been acquired
1871
. The essay does not examine in detail how
1872
the existing mode of operation of society has come about. It most certainly does not attempt to answer why
1873
we have done this. I leave it to others to examine how and to a lesser extent why we have gone down this path
1874
. I believe concentrating out the consequences of what we have done is all I can possibly hope to manage. Like everyone, I have a limited scope of understanding. So I must limit my objective if I am to do it soundly. This examination has led, surprisingly, to the
Dependence on Nature Law . To sum it up, there are now too many people
114

consuming too much of what nature has left to offer. To do this, they have built up a structure that will be very hard to adapt to the emerging decline. Civilization has put itself in an unsustainable position
1875
. The fundamental basis for that assertion follows.
In assessing what is happening, we need to examine what happens to systems
1877 in operation over time. There are three distinct types of operation and their specific characteristics need to be identified to clarify the picture. The first one relates to the
‘functioning’ of the system. The day-to-day operation of my body is an example of functioning 1878 . The second relates to the ‘development’ of the operation of the system. It covers how the system and its functioning changes over time. It is analogous to how the operation of my body has changed over the years
1879
. The third one relates to the
‘inheritance’ of a system of operation from a pre-existing notationally similar system.
The operation of the body of my son differs from that of my body
1880
. Coal-fired power stations can now be more efficient and produce less toxic waste through lessons that have been learnt
1881
.
The examination does not concern itself with ecological evolution because that is generally slow moving in comparison with the rapidly changing nature of society and the synthetic material underpinnings that support it, the Body of civilization. That does not mean that nature does not respond to our misplaced activities. Climate change is one example of this responding
1883
. Gould describes the vast difference in rates between biological evolution and cultural change
1884
. Evolution has largely determined how the ecosystem and most of its inhabitants operated in the near past
1885
. Our activities have perturbed these operations very much, particularly in the past century. The study of genetics has provided some understanding of how living systems pass on their operating messages. Memetics appear to provide insight into the development of thinking processes in humans. Possibly these memetic studies provide some understanding of how we acquired the exosomatic mental capabilities that set us apart from other species. The point is that this remarkable difference does exist and it has had a tremendous impact on what we have done to Gaia and to the Body of civilization 1886 . We have unknowingly and irrevocably devastated our life support system.
It is probably a truism that all organisms do what is possible. That seems to be the basis of Darwinism. The difference is that the possibilities are much wider for humans
115

that for other species
1888
. What has happened to the ecosystem in recent times is largely the result of those capabilities. These consequences, intended and unintended, are a subject of this essay because they are largely the result of lack of understanding of the impact of these capabilities. The failure of science to give society’s leaders adequate insight has already been discussed.
The examination takes into account the interdependence of some of the natural and synthetic (human-made) operations. That is, the view is taken that the operations in the ecosystem comprise a super organism, as proposed by the Gaia theory, with a synthetic civilization growth on it
1890
. Some authors call it a cancer
1891
. I see no reason to
question that definition. The proposed axioms and the associated Dependence on Nature
Law indicate how this devastation of the ecosystem, so the consequential dire future of
civilization, came about
1892
.
We know that at times there will be unexpected events that will disrupt normal operations, sometimes disastrously. The Sumatran tsunami was such a natural catastrophe
1894
. The Israeli Hezbollah war was a synthetic one. 9/11 was quite clearly the outstanding synthetic one of recent times. Chaos dynamics are providing some scientific understanding of how these trigger events can occur. It is presumed, in this essay, that such virtually unpredictable events will not materially influence the arguments supporting the two theories, so the Dependence on Nature Law. It is noted later that there could well
be a Greater Depression
1895
. But that would only cause a blip on the decline of the Body of civilization
1896
. It would not change the under lying principle that we are using up the natural bounty at an unsustainably high rate. It would just slow down this rate. It would effectively foster the power down.
Time is irreversible. That is a fact that we can all acknowledge from our own
experience. There have been physicists who have argued the contrary because classical
Newtonian dynamics 1898 allow time to be reversible 1899 . This view has tended to cloud the issues we raise here. ‘the flow of time is rooted in Poincare resonances that depend on the
Hamiltonian, that is, on dynamics’ is a statement by a renowned physicist 1900 that is bound to confuse most people. Recent advances in the understanding of complex nonlinear dynamics have resolved this issue for physicists in the broadest sense from the
microscopic to the cosmological. Quite clearly, time is an irreversible resource within the
116

context of this essay
1901
. We have access to the recording of the passing of time globally.
We know that it continues even as we sleep. This experiential view of the irreversibility of time will not be subject to qualification here by the deeper considerations of time by physicists. We now go on to see that our devastation of the ecosystem is also irreversible 1902 , despite all the hype about progress 1903 .
Energy
1905
flow is also irreversible
1906
. That is a basic tenet of physics
1907
.
However, this is not a common view, largely because the term ‘energy’ has been given meanings that depend on the context 1908 . Most of the discussion by the authorities, business and in the media about energy
1909
is as a commodity
1910
, something you pay money for when you use it for your purposes, to cause changes
1911
or to do work
1912
. It engenders the misperception that using this energy does no harm
1913
. This view of energy
1914
as a commodity is in conflict with the common view of energy and with its technical definition
1915 . Henceforth this form of physical energy is termed ‘industrial energy’ here because it drives industrialized society 1916
. It should be noted that commentators often refer to energy in a different, misleading context
1917
.
Chemical energy flow occurs in exothermic and endothermic reactions but we have no reason to discuss these here. The reaction of pollutants and commercial products with other, natural products is included in the assessment without needing to go into the chemical energy details.
Appreciable confusion arises by discussing the ‘source’ of energy without qualification as it has profound implications. That confusion is avoided here by using the term ‘origin’ rather than ‘source’ for the start of the energy flow process that inevitably ends up with the production of waste heat even though it may be stored at various stages in the process and generally does useful work. We will adopt the convention here that
‘origin’ is the start of an energy flow process in the operation of civilization 1920 . ‘source’ the relates to where the energy is stored during a process. Stored energy 1921 has potential to be a source but it certainly is not the origin of the energy flow.
The term ‘available’ can also cause confusion. Here we use it where resources are available to be used at some rate. The mechanism to use these resources is in place. This is in comparison to where there is some knowledge of the size of the resources but the mechanism is not in place to make use of them
1924 . These are ‘exploitable’ resources and
117

some of them may be ‘available’. Most attention is given to what is available because that impinges on operations
1925
.
Energy is an amount. So is the associated work. The operation of civilization and its host, the eco system, entails a rate of energy flow (so power) and the associated rate of work done. The time involved is the link between the two. It is often implied in discussions, so causing confusion at times. Oil contains a concentrated form of
(chemical) energy so is capable of providing high power because its production using solar energy occurred over a long time. Civilization has used it at such a high rate that it will last for only a relatively short time. A runner does work at a high rate but only for a
limited time, as the amount of available energy is limited. Time is a valuable intangible
resource
1927
. The time factor is explicitly noted in the following discussions to avoid confusion.
Those market levers, ‘demand’ and ‘supply’, also cause appreciable misperception. Many interpret ‘supply’ as being indicative of the amount of the resource whereas it really relates the rate at which the resource is being supplied by the existing system. The supply of oil is currently about 86 mb/d but that says little about how much can be supplied in the future
1929
. ‘demand’ is also referring to the rate of usage. Demand destruction is a response by users to a declining supply rate, which in the case of exhaustible natural resources will be largely determined by tangible ecological forces. On the other hand, growing supply is a response to increasing demand driven by intangible economic forces. In many practical circumstances, ‘demand’ driving ‘supply’ is not the reverse of ‘supply’ driving ‘demand’ even though it is economic dogma.
There are many dubious proposals for energy systems to augment those already in operation. The point to be established is whether the
source of the energy has the
potential to flow so it can do work or cause changes. This means that it has to be a stage in the energy flow process from origin to its end. The oceans have plenty of energy but there is potential to use some of this energy only in specific circumstances. Wave energy 1931 and tidal power 1932 are two well-known examples of sources. The temperature difference between the surface water and at depth can also be utilized by an installation enabling the required flow
1933
. Likewise, the atmosphere has plenty of energy but the potential is limited to harnessing winds. Sunshine is energy captured by plants to do work
118

in growing, so is the source of the energy for plants. The plants are the source of the energy acquired by animals that eat the plants. So the origin of that energy flow is the
insolation. It can also be captured by human installations like PV panels that are the source of electrical energy. Potential also exists in force fields like gravitation
1934
and magnetism 1935 and in exogenous chemical reactions 1936 . There is potential 1937 in uranium and other radioactive materials
1938
to yield industrial energy by nuclear fusion. An energy dissipative flow to do work by activation can occur where this potential exists. It is a stage in the overall process. This stage in the process is formalized as the Second Law of
Thermodynamics. This has to be preceded by a generative process to establish the
potential of a source but not of the origin of the overall energy flow process
1939
. I call the formalization of that process the Fourth Law.
It is appropriate to digress here to clarify what meaning is being used to develop the fundamental axioms proposed in this essay. It is appropriate, at the same time, to clarify the meaning of the terms ‘efficiency’, ‘force’, ‘work’, ‘power’, ‘resources’ and
‘waste’ in the context here.
Energy is commonly considered to be the ability to do something
1942
. It has two components in humans, mental
1943
and physical. The former depends on our motivation, our inclination to do something. It is the basis for decisions to use the latter, if available
1944 . It is an intangible because it comes from the mind. The terms ‘skill’,
‘expertise’, ‘knowledge’ and ‘wisdom’ are all types of intellectual energy and decisions are based on this energy. The physical energy is associated with actually doing something. I may on awakening ponder on whether to lie in for a while or get up. I eventually use the (intellectual) energy to make the decision to get up. I then summon up the (physical) energy to move my limbs and clamor out of bed. This distinction between the intellectual and physical is critical in the context of this essay. We are examining in this chapter what activities organized by humans have done to the ecosystem. That is, we are considering the consequences of physical energy processes when they have been activated by the use of intellectual energy. We cover the nature and impact of decisions made by humans, their use of intellectual energy
1945
, later.
It is worthwhile to take this analogy further to clarify an important point. I may decide to stay in bed because I am not feeling well
1947
. I may use appreciable intellectual
119

energy to think through matters to be incorporated in this essay. These thoughts would most likely not be affected by how I feel
1948
. At the same time, the metabolism in my body will almost independently be converting chemical energy and carrying out many other necessary functions. That is, many biological system activities will be going on in my body unknowingly to my mind. It is the consequences of system activities in a range of circumstances that is the subject of this chapter. It is important to differentiate these results from the means by which the decisions were made to carry some of them out, the use of intellectual energy.
Personal energy is synonymous with how we feel. It is partly associated with body well being after rest and sustenance but clearly depends on other factors
1950
.
Physical energy is an attribute of the body that stems from the metabolic processes in the body. It is derived from the chemical energy in the food we eat
1951
. It enables the body to do things, including physical and mental work. There is generally little thought given as to where the physical energy really came from
1952
. That is remedied in the following.
Additionally, little thought is given to what happens to the energy when it is used to do something. It’s ultimate destiny as waste heat is generally ignored – but not in this essay.
Humans control many
1954
of the operations of society. They use their physical energy in doing this but generally that is not the most important component. Education, training and experience enable them to make decisions
1955
about these operations. That is, there is an input of intellectual energy into what happens in the Body of civilization. This acquired intellectual energy would have entailed appreciable prior eco cost but there is no reason why the acquired skill does not represent good worth for this cost
1956
. That is, it is a contribution to the Brain. The expenditure of the physical energy to do the work of controlling the operation is necessary but certainly not sufficient to do the job properly.
The operators need to have acquired the skill. They then input intellectual energy in carrying out the work 1957 .
It is quite common to view money, economics and market forces as providing the energy driving operations. There is no doubting the impact of these factors on the decisions governing what happens but it is misleading to use the term energy in that context. ‘social energy’ is used here to avoid any confusing of this intangible with physical energy
1959
.
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It is appropriate to digress here to compare energy and water
1961
usage as this difference has a profound influence on ecological operations. As noted, when physical energy is used it almost always eventually dissipates to waste heat
1962
. That does not happen to water. It circulates. There are circumstances where water breaks down to hydrogen and oxygen, as in electrolysis, and circumstances where hydrogen and oxygen react to form water, as in a fuel cell. Essentially, however, water is conserved
1963
and circulates 1964 , with the help of energy from sunshine 1965 . This distinction between processes that have a limited life 1966 and those that recycle 1967 is a crucial point in the developing argument.
The view of personal energy of the individual can be carried over to be indicative of the potential of the community to be active
1969
. It also applies, of course, to the ecosystem being active. It drives what is done
1970
. The common view is largely consistent with the strict technical definition of energy
1971
. There is, however, a discrepancy that makes a crucial difference. The common view of energy carries with it an assumption with respect to mental attitude. It conveys the impression that mental attitude has a major impact on the consequences of what actually happens. That this is not so in reality is one of the basic tenets of this essay. Mental attitude affects the decisions about using the physical energy but does not affect the consequences of using that energy
1972
.
One of the major concerns is the continuing availability of the energy
1974
that powers
1975
industrialized society
1976
. The energy
1977
that enables manufacturing of goods.
The energy
1978
that drives all forms of mechanized transportation. The energy that is used in the homes for lighting, cooking, heating, air-conditioning and powering the TVs, computers and all those other devices we have become so dependent on. This is commonly regarded as a commodity, as noted above. It differs from the energy that is available naturally in that a human-devised (synthetic) system has to be installed to supply this energy to the user 1979 . It also differs in that it introduces side effects 1980 that generally harm the ecosystem. To avoid any difficulty in differentiating between these forms, the term industrial energy is used henceforth when this form is the subject of the discussion. It is subject, like all physical dispersive energy flow processes
1981
, to the
Second Law of Thermodynamics
1982
.
121

‘efficiency’ is also often used in a misleading fashion 1984
even though the general sense of the term is well understood. It is a measure of the effectiveness of a process or operation in carrying out the specified task
1985
. It has several explicit meanings in economics but it generally means that a high efficiency operation produces little waste, where waste can have various connotations 1986 . It also often means a loss of resilience 1987 .
The meaning of ‘efficiency’ is more explicit in engineering. Here it is the ratio of the work done or physical energy out 1988 to the physical energy in. In the case of a car engine it is quite low 1989 because the power comes from the combustion so heat dissipation out of the exhaust is an intrinsic part of the process. On the other hand, it is closer to 100% in a water turbine because the only losses are in the friction of the water past the blades and the casing. On the other hand, the efficiency of a wind farm has little relevance
1990
, as the energy in (the wind) is free. The energy out (as electricity) depends primarily on other factors. It is interesting that many people confuse net energy
1991
(of a system
1992
) with energy efficiency of a process
1993
. There is absolutely no relation as the energy out
1994
is the only common quantity.
A curious factor in the common view of energy is that it is considered to act alone. The fact that energy is associated almost invariably
1996
in our experiential world with matter is largely ignored
1997
. This means that when people are talking about having energy they are really referring to the condition of their body: that is quite a crucial point.
I assert below that the Second and Fourth Laws really apply to physical energy processes and the associated matter
1998
, as they are inseparable in reality
1999
. It is worth noting that it is common to talk about ‘clean energy’ when referring to attempts to reduce the amount of waste material 2000 produced in generating electrical energy. The association of the material is implied by the term ‘clean energy’ 2001
. I am explicit about energy and material here because the separation has an important impact on the misunderstanding in society about the impact of using industrial energy 2002 .
We are used to hearing about market ‘forces’
2004
. We tend to know intuitively what a force is in a technical 2005 sense because we often apply a force to do something. I am applying forces on the keys with my fingers. That is a simple physical operation that we could quantify using known methods if we wished to
2006
. Market forces, however, are intangibles
2007
. There is invariably movement in the direction of application of a physical
122

force. That is a natural law. The force times the distance moved determines the amount of physical energy transferred. What will happen when a market force is applied is open to speculation. It cannot be physically quantified
2008
. Market forces are generally partly driven by financial considerations
2009
. They result in humans making decisions that activate the operations we are considering here. There is widespread belief amongst business people and economists that market forces facilitate progress. They are deluded because they do not look at the other side of the coin, the un-repayable eco cost of the operations 2010 . There are also ‘social forces’ that affect the outlook of people 2011 and have given rise to many misperceptions about how the foundations of civilization really operate
2012
.
‘momentum’ in the technical sense 2014
has much in common with the popular view. The momentum of the Body of civilization has grown rapidly through the force applied by the liberation of industrial energy from the fossil fuels combined with the generation of know how
2015
in the populace. Unfortunately, there is little force that society can apply in the opposite direction to reduce the momentum. The use of that energy is irreversible. Society has only weak brakes it can apply
2016
. Natural forces do ameliorate the growing momentum of civilization, naturally!
The contrast between the common and technical view of ‘energy’ also applies to the term ‘work’. That is, the common view is a loose interpretation of the technical definition
2018
that causes gross misunderstanding of the impact of doing work on the
Bodily health of civilization. The ecological reality is that using a flow of physical energy to do work
2019
entails the irreversible degradation of the energy, so entropy increase
2020 but it generally serves a useful purpose 2021 . There is an identifiable, substantial result. The common human view is that doing work
2022
has the object of making a contribution towards some objective, including getting paid for it, almost a necessity in society. Doing work is regarded as a ‘good’ whereas it is really doing something transient of value, according to human judgment
2023
, at an irrevocable eco cost that is generally ignored
2024
.
There is also the investor’s view of ‘work’ summed up by ‘I’ve got money. I have to put it to work.’ This view of money creating money is consistent with the Ponzi nature of modern society
2025
. These differences in view are reconciled as we go along. Investors
123

are using the leverage of their money to speed up the irreversible depreciation of natural capital.
There has been a lot of misleading discussion of ‘energy’ and ‘work’ in relation to the operation of civilization. These discussions correctly point out that there needs to be an energy transformation in order to do work But these discussions generally do not bring out the complementary requirement for material to be worked on. The complete picture of what happens is that when ‘energy’ is used it takes ‘time’ to do ‘work’ in transforming the state of the ‘materials’. There is appreciable discussion in governance about the need for ‘energy security’ without spelling out the context.
‘power’ 2027
is a tangible quantity strictly related to energy and work by time in the technical definition. Its common usage is intangible, so only very loosely connected to the technical sense. Referring to a person in a position of power tends to suggest a person with various forms of leverage, including financial
2028
, to support their decisions
2029
. The powerful have a tremendous influence
2030
on the misdirection of civilization
2031
.
’spending power’ is often used when referring to having enough money to spend after meeting running expenses. ‘expending power’ will be used here when referring to the capability to draw down on natural bounty after meeting functioning eco costs. These uses have little to do with ‘power’ in the technical sense. Referring to a ‘power station’ is close to the technical sense as it is referring to the
source of electrical
2032
energy, so power available
2033
at the outlet
2034
.
The powerful use their leverage for control of how the weak masses of society operate. Debt has increased their power appreciably in recent times. The main thrust of this essay is on what human activities have actually done to the ecosystem. The ability of the powerful to manipulate the masses is relevant to how society has managed the use of available natural capital but it has no direct influence on the fact that this capital is being depreciated by the operations of society.
‘waste’ can also be misleading. There is no waste produced in natural operations.
The excreta from animals generally serve a useful purpose in the operation of the ecosystem by circulating nutrients. Some people, especially many of those who have to sweep them up, may consider the leaves shed from trees as waste but they do have a role in forests. They contribute to soil fertility under normal circumstances
2037
. A proportion
124

of the input energy
2038
to an engine is dissipated as heat. That is endemic to the process so it should not be called waste heat
2039
. It should be recognized by even the non-technical that there is little that can be done to improve the efficiency of the engine
2040
.
Civilization has installed sewerage systems to get rid of human wastes. This is regarded as contributing to progress 2042 . The reality is that these systems entail an appreciable eco cost for installation, operation and maintenance, including using copious amounts of generally potable water. They contribute to the transfer of nutrients from the soil to contaminate the oceans. It is doubtful in a realistic sense whether it was worthwhile to install sewerage systems. But it has been done so there is now the commitment to use some of the remaining natural bounty capital to operate and maintain these systems. This situation has arisen partly because it has become common to regard human feces and urine as wastes.
There is a clear need to clarify the perception of ‘waste’ production to aid in easing the inevitable powering down. For example, there are proposals to process household waste to produce a biofuel. This could well be worthwhile if it reduces the eco cost of putting this waste into landfill, a common wasteful process that is dumping much valuable material. It may well be more worthwhile in many circumstances, however, to compost this household waste, as it would improve food production. It is almost unbelievable that there are organizations, principally in the developed countries, that give preference to fuel production over food
2044
.
There are many circumstances where industry irrevocably produces toxic wastes that cannot realistically be made useful by some form of treatment. For example, steel often becomes useless because of rust or because it is the structure of a sunken ship. It can be useful in developing arguments below to use the term ‘true waste’ in such circumstances to ensure clarification.
There are, however, also circumstances where industrial wastes do appreciable harm to the eco system. The impact of carbon dioxide from the combustion of fossil fuels is the outstanding example. It is appropriate to bring this point home in the discussions below to identify them as ‘exacerbating wastes’.
The fact that physicists and engineers use precise definitions of the units of energy, force, work and power should not be allowed to obscure that fact that industrial
125

energy does drive the operations of Gaia and its passenger, the Body of civilization, whilst it is readily available. Natural forces do work, as do machines
2048
. Nature always provides all the energy, even that which humans use in thinking their illusory thoughts
2049
! It has stored vast amounts in the fossil fuels. We are using this stored energy exuberantly now so this capital is being drawn down rapidly and irrevocably 2050 .
Insolation (sunshine) is the energy income that drives almost all
2051
natural operations and which we are increasingly trying to harness 2052 to drive some industrial operations 2053 . However, it is common, but misleading, to examine the role of energy alone
2054
. Energy always acts on matter and this association is discussed explicitly in this essay.
The term ‘resources’ is also often used in a misleading fashion 2056
. Quite often the term is referring to financial resources, the qualifier being implied. Money is often regarded as being a resource
2057
. It can also refer to the intellectual resources of people
2058
. We are concerned here with the resources of substance available from the ecosystem. We use these biological
2059
, geological
2060
and physical
2061
resources in the operation of the Body of civilization with intellectual energy guiding how we use and misuse them. The term ‘natural resources’ is used for them throughout this essay to avoid possible misinterpretation about what is used. Their usage is governed by natural laws
2062 . The term ‘intellectual energy’ flow covers the use of that intangible, intellectual resources. ‘human resources’ covers both the provision of labor and the use of intellectual energy
2063
.
There is also the need to recognize the difference between ‘personal wealth’ 2065 and ‘cultural wealth’ 2066 . The former is one of the destructive tools of society to be actively discouraged. It has been a major factor in the misuse of natural resources. The latter has been constructive and we can view it with pride and strive to expand it with wise use of natural resources continuing to provide the material foundations.
One of the purposes of this essay is to point out that energy flow irreversibility
2068 is a fundamental fact for all operations in the ecosystem. Here we are referring explicitly to physical energy. That is the energy that drives all ecological operations, including the industrial energy defined above. There is no need to consider cosmological or
126

microscopic aspects of energy for our purposes here. It makes the examination easier if we confine ourselves to our experiential domain here on Earth.
The energy in to my body is as various forms of chemical energy in carbohydrates, protein and fats. The energy out is in the form of the work I might do in lifting an object, so transferring some energy to the object, and the heat expelled in various forms
2070
. That is clearly an irreversible energy flow that characterizes the functioning of my body. Sunbathing does not mean my body is getting energy from insolation. But plants do get energy from sunshine 2071 . That is their energy input. Their energy output is as chemical energy in the plant material and some dispersing to the surroundings as heat. I get that energy when I eat the plants. The energy flow in plants characterizes the growth
2072
that cannot be reversed. This is common knowledge but it is cited here to reinforce the view that energy flow is irreversible
2073
. That is commonly just taken for granted. Most people regard energy as something they can get simply by paying money. They pay their electricity bills and buy fuel for their cars. They are thinking in terms of energy they can use for whatever. Most never think of the fact that when they use energy they are consigning it to be waste heat, whether it does useful work or not
2074
.
They only worry about what energy does for them
2075
.
Physicists and engineers necessarily gain a deeper understanding of the nature of energy flows in industrial processes. They understand that these flows are always irreversible. They appreciate that the terms exothermic and endothermic describe, respectively, the spontaneous chemical reactions
2077
and those that need heat input to activate them
2078
. Those terms define the direction of energy flow in chemical reactions.
It is interesting to note their similarity to the Consequence and Restoration Axioms respectively
2079
. Engineers may sometimes cite the electric motor/generator as an example of a reversible energy flow. This is not really so. It is quite common to arrange control gear to enable this reversibility of roles but it is not reversibility of the energy flow. In one case, the input of electricity drives the motor so electrical energy input is converted to mechanical energy and a little true waste heat. There is an entropy increase.
The quantity of mechanical energy out is less than the quantity of electrical energy input.
Then the system can be switched and the generator driven so mechanical energy input is converted to electricity and, again, some true waste heat. Again there is an entropy
127

increase. The quantity of electrical energy out is less than the quantity of mechanical energy input. This switching requires a system change. The
source of the energy is
changed. The reversibility of roles does not negate the assertion that the flow of energy through each of the processes is irreversible
2080
.
Another example will help to clarify this issue. The intermittency of winds means that a wind farm should preferably be associated with some form of energy storage or evening out of electrical generation. One practical way of storing energy is to use a hydro system for pumped water storage. That is, the hydro system would both use water storage to generate electricity when the wind is not blowing and use electricity from the wind turbine when running to store energy in water by pumping it up to the pondage. This is a reversal of the energy flow process. In the 1930s reversible hydroelectric turbines became available. These turbines could operate as both turbine-generators and in reverse as electric motor driven pumps. The processes are reversed but each one is an irreversible process with associated hydraulic, friction and electrical losses.
As mentioned, this essay focuses on physical energy because we are examining what happens in operations in the ecosystem. The relevant energy form considered depends on the context. Forms include chemical energy in matter
2083
, mechanical energy of objects
2084
, like a spinning turbine, and electrical energy
2085
from a power station.
Intellectual energy
2086
is definitely excluded in any reference to what happens in physical energy processes in this essay because it is not subject to the natural laws that govern physical energy flow
2087
. But the chemical energy you have at the start of the day is included because you can call on it to give you kinetic energy of movement
2088
. I justify that assertion about intellectual energy 2089 below when I discuss decisions 2090 .
Energy is generally treated in the political, business and media worlds as a commodity 2092 separate from the associated material structure required for its supply to the user, most often as electricity or in a fuel. This treatment is because it is a cost factor in the productive process or however it is used. This view of industrial energy is understandable because it is generally seen as the prime driving force underpinning economic growth as well as the operation of society. The ready supply of cheap
(electrical and fuel) energy has enabled the industrial revolution and the associated recent
‘progress’ of our civilization 2093
. The role of exhaustible materials is consequently largely
128

ignored even though they have also had a large impact. What would our world be like without vast amounts of concrete? How would computers be made without using many materials from the limited natural stores? Scarcity of such materials as copper is starting to be noticeable. Water is matter, not energy, so the rapidly developing water supply predicaments 2094 are not just an energy predicament, even though a lot of industrial energy is used in pumping the water. Fertile soil
2095
is also matter, influenced by the availability of the appropriate nutrients and the action of microorganisms 2096 . All pollutants and emissions are gaseous, liquid or solid matter. Their impact on the operation of the Body and their disruption of the operation of Gaia are addressed.
Concern that the era of ‘cheap’ 2098
oil is drawing to a close has led to more interest in making use of alternative sources of industrial energy. It has led to many confusing debates about the viability of various possible sources
2099
. One issue is whether the amount of industrial energy supplied to the user
2100
, termed the net energy
2101
, exceeds the industrial energy expended in installing and operating the energy supply system
2102
. That appears to be a sound question in principle
2103
but it is not easy to answer in practice
2104
. Just what comprises the industrial energy input is open to argument
2105
, often tainted by vested interests
2106
. It does have the fundamental weakness that it presumes, in line with the conventional economic growth
2107
paradigm, that the draw down on industrial energy capital is free
2108
and that the consequent exacerbating wastes
2109
do little harm to the environment. It also presumes that the use to which the industrial energy is put is worthwhile
2110
. Another criticism is that it generally does not take into account associated eco costs
2111
. There is a need for a sounder assessment of the realistic worth of energy supply 2112 against the un-repayable eco cost 2113 . Net energy analysis contributes to the assessment of the effectiveness of an industrial energy supply system, which is only part of relating worth to eco cost 2114 .
This view of industrial energy as a commodity leads to many misleading terms that lead to most people having the wrong perception of its role in society. There is no
‘renewable’ energy. The energy we use was generated in the Sun and invariably ends up as true waste heat radiated back out into space, even if it does useful work at some stage.
Most people do not understand that whenever they use industrial energy they are ensuring its demise as true waste heat. I believe industrial energy would have been much more
129

wisely used if people had been taught that simple truism
2116
. But they keep being conned about ‘renewable energy’ 2117 . In addition, industrial energy is not ‘produced’ 2118
. It is
‘extracted’ from fossil fuels or ‘harnessed’ from naturally occurring sources like sunshine
2119
, wind
2120
and hydro
2121 . It is ‘generated’ by nuclear fission 2122
. There is no
‘clean’ industrial energy. That term really means that the system used to extract, harness or generate the electricity does not produce a lot of exacerbating waste materials, particularly greenhouse gases, whilst operating. The bottom line is that physical energy inevitably degrades to true waste heat when used 2123 . The common view of energy use does not take this reality into account.
Despite this common view of energy in isolation, it is, as already noted, really an attribute of matter
2125
. For example in the case of the coal-fired power station examined
later, it is the exothermic property of the carbon molecules in the coal that is the source of
the energy used when it burns in air. Some of it becomes the heat in the steam. Some of this becomes the rotational kinetic energy in the turbine\generator system. Most of that becomes the motion of electrons in the conductors that is electricity.
If you believe that I am being too pedantic in going to this detail, just think about the harm the resultant misunderstanding is doing. We have built the foundations of modern industrial society on the false belief in the continuing availability of cheap industrial energy
2127
. Even today there is appreciable debate about how to ensure a continuing supply of industrial energy as oil and gas decline. Few understand that exuberant use of industrial energy is causing some aspects of Gaia to age rapidly
2128
. It has enabled the food
2129
, so population and consumption, explosions and the consequent degradation of the environment and disruption of society 2130 . It has initiated climate change
2131
. It has caused many pollution predicaments
2132
. It has disrupted geodiversity 2133 in many places 2134 .
So physical energy is really an attribute of matter in the world in which we operate. Insolation consists of photons of energy that becomes associated with matter when they impinge on our ecosystem 2136 . That is the commencement of the life of a parcel of energy
2137
. The true waste heat that is the end of the life is radiated back out into space as photons
2138
. These parcels of energy are associated with matter for the remainder of their lives. Chemical energy is a property of material while kinetic energy relates to the
130

motion of a body. Electrical energy is electron flow in a conductor. We focus here on the form of energy relevant to the process being discussed. There is no need to consider the chemical energy in an object when discussing its motion
2139
. Scientists often simplify the systems they are studying to make it easier to focus on the aspect of interest. Biologists, geologists, chemists, zoologists and their ilk do not need to consider e=m.c^2. They can safely leave that to the nuclear physicists. And we have no need to consider that fundamental relation here either because we do not look at the technicalities of nuclear power 2140 .
Whilst energy is associated with matter, it aids developing one of the major themes
2142
of this essay to consider two different types of processes before getting on to practical systems
2143
. Various forms of energy are involved in an energy transformation process in a material structure. Coal-fired generation of electricity is an example of an energy transformation process
2144
. It is discussed in detail below. The other type is a material transformation process
2145
. The processing of iron ore to produce steel
2146
is an example, also discussed below. The iron oxide is transformed to metallic iron through an input of energy. Then it may rust in due course with iron oxide being formed
2147
.
We have noted that the flow of energy is an irreversible process. Material transformation processes are also irreversible. This seems to be an uncommon consideration, even amongst scientists. I justify taking it into account in the following
2149
.
It is a significant element in the first of the axioms I propose here, the Consequence
Axiom. My view, however, is not novel, as noted below, but it is not widely accepted, yet.
A system may consist of one or more of these two types of processes in continual irreversible functioning. The system itself will be irreversibly developing. This assertion is based on experience with a wide range of developing systems 2151 . In fact, it can be regarded as common sense. That is, the detail functioning of the processes will be changing although their nature will not. The coal-fired power station and associated transmission lines is a system with one energy transformation process 2152 functioning. My body is a system with a vast array of both types of processes functioning
2153
. These systems develop throughout their lives. We call the various stages for the human body growing
2154
, maturity and aging
2155
. I am aware of the mortality of my body. I also know
131

that the power station will go through a development process from construction
2156
, operation
2157
through to eventual demolition
2158
. That is, it also has a life, but one that is terminated by a decision. Both results are inevitable
2159
. This correspondence in principle between the organic system, me, and the inorganic system, the coal-fired power station, is very important in developing the theme in relation to the first axiom. Additionally, my life is no different to that of a microbe in regard to its development, even though time and spatial scales are very different 2160 . This aside adds to the perspective of what Gaia 2161 consists of.
Electricity generation in the power station will vary with
time due to what is
commonly called wear and tear. The system structure will tend to deteriorate together with the decline in the functioning process. Friction in the turbine/generator bearings leads to aging of this machinery but will hardly affect the amount of electricity produced.
But friction causing erosion of the turbine blade profiles could well cause a loss in the electricity generation that can be offset by varying controls and, on occasions, by replacing the blades. That is, the effects of wear and tear on the process and on the system structure can be offset to a degree by control and maintenance. Both the functioning and developing processes, however, are clearly irreversible. I know the same principles apply to the functioning and developing of my body. It tires
2163
during the day
2164
but it is refreshed by sleep and the energy obtained by eating
2165
. A similar functioning occurs the next day. The aging of my body is irreversible although medical procedures can possibly ease developing predicaments
2166
. I can mitigate the aging by healthy eating, exercise and avoiding bad habits like smoking
2167
. That is, by good maintenance, as for the power station. The fact that the Body of civilization is aging 2168 rapidly is a novel perspective for the vast majority of people because they continually see the value of achievements 2169 without being aware of the eco cost, so the draw down of the natural bounty.
I expect that most people have an intuitive grasp of what is meant by
irreversibility. Just as time passes irreversibly, operations occur in a sequence that cannot
be reversed. We experience that concept continually. It is no stranger to us. When reversible operations are raised in physics and engineering, we learn that the operations being discussed are idealizations to aid understanding of the nature of the operations. The
132

same applies in chemistry. Some may think that H2 + O > H2O is the reverse of H2O >
H2 + O. But that is not so. The first occurs spontaneously and quickly when activated by a small heat source. It is an exothermic reaction. It gives out heat. It is a form of combustion, of oxidation. And it can only take place if there is a source of hydrogen
2171
.
The second requires the input of energy to split the water molecule gradually. It is an endothermic reaction. Plants use the energy from insolation to do this, with chlorophyll being a catalyst. We use electrical energy in the electrolysis process for a similar transformation but at an appreciable eco cost 2172 .
The processing of iron ore
2174
(containing iron oxide) to metallic iron by energy input
2175
is clearly not the reverse of slow rusting, slow oxidation which is metallic iron to iron oxide with dispersion of true waste heat
2176
. These are typical illustrations of irreversibility. I generalize that concept here but there is nothing controversial. The processes that I examine below are intuitively irreversible.
The Second Law of Thermodynamics is the physicists’ formalization of irreversibility of dispersive energy flow processes. It says that thermodynamic entropy
2178 increases in the direction of the flow. It is an immutable statement covering what happens. To say that the Second Law governs operations is to imply that these operations have potential and are then irreversibly dispersive when activated. That implication is often forgotten or not understood
2179 . There have been numerous ‘scientists’ over the centuries who have refuted this irreversibility. They have proposed various forms of perpetual motion machines
2180
. Those that believe these machines are possible are engaging in wishful thinking and ignoring their own everyday experience. It is akin to believing in immortality. It is akin to the economists’ belief that money provides the material and energetic foundation of civilization’s operations 2181
!
Georgescu-Roegen 2183 proposed three decades ago that there should be a Fourth
Law of Thermodynamics relating to irreversible material flow rather than energy flow
2184
. Ecological economists argue that this is not appropriate. This is understandable because the Second Law applies to every energy transformation process 2185 but only to the dispersive stage of material transformation processes. The fact remains that some material transformation flows
2186
are clearly life limited even though the entropy decreases locally and temporarily due to energy input in the generative stage
2187
. Iron ore
133

is a case examined in detail below. The fact that it has a temporary increase in order
2188 obscures the reality that it eventually ends up as irrecoverable true waste material even though it may be recycled at some stage
2189
. The flow of nutrients
2190
in sewerage and streams is another irreversible dispersive material flow process
2191
. This characteristic of lifed material flow processes has a major impact on the theme being developed here 2192 .
An origin or source of energy has potential to flow only when it is above the local
equilibrium. This energy flow, when activated, inevitably spontaneously and irreversibly disperses to true waste heat regardless of what it may do during the stages 2194 of the process
2195
. That is, the entropy increases at each stage throughout the life of the flow.
That behavior is formalized in the Second Law of Thermodynamics. When an energy dispersive flow process is activated it follows the Second Law. Where the process involves chemical energy, as in coal combustion, it is termed exothermic
2196
, because it results in heat release.
A crucial point is that energy dispersive flow processes must be preceded by flow generative processes that are fostered by energy input where there is a trend from disorder to order, so an entropy decrease. The Second Law does not apply to that stage of the process. I believe that it should be formalized as the Fourth Law of Thermodynamics.
This increase in order means that there is an increase in the potential for an energy dispersive process to follow. Thus a generative process with energy input (Fourth Law) leads to temporary order, so low entropy, followed by a dispersive (Second Law) process.
It is analogous to a marble being pushed up an order hill (the Fourth Law process) then rolling down the hill (the Second Law process). Dispersive processes can appear to exist in isolation 2198 but a dispersive one always follows a generative one 2199 . The combustion of coal to generate electricity is an exothermic (dispersive) process. The associated generative process took many years to unfold underground. The forming of a hurricane and then its petering out is an example of a natural generative process followed by a dispersive one
2200
.
The human life follows a similar pattern but our bodies are systems consisting of a complex mixture of generative and dispersive processes contributing to metabolism in their functioning. Nevertheless, the simple fact that aging
2202
inevitably follows growing
134

justifies saying that this is an example of the Fourth Law preceding the Second Law in a
Life Axiom. It is an example of increasing order followed by decreasing order. It is appropriate to call it an Axiom because it is a statement of what inevitably happens to an identifiable set of systems, including all organisms
2203
. There are many natural
2204
and synthetic systems 2205 that invariably exhibit this developing characteristic so may be said to follow this Life Axiom.
It is common in examining matters like those being considered here for physicists to use entropy as a measure of the state of a process. It originated with respect to the state of thermodynamic energy processes, like heat engines. The definition has been broadened so that it is indicative of the tendency of what are commonly called closed systems
2207
to go irreversibly from order
2208
to disorder, so tending towards equilibrium
2209
. This is the definition used here for entropy increase of a process or a system
2210
. This does not mean that the entropy of a system invariably increases, as we generally are not dealing with closed systems
2211
. Some people use the term negentropy to indicate the circumstances where entropy decreases
2212
. I believe that term leads to confusion so I will avoid using it.
The important point is that an entropy decrease is always localized and transitory in an energy flow process, which is Fourth Law followed by Second Law. This also applies to dispersive systems that develop towards a peak order then to disorder
2213
. On the other hand, there can be generative systems that develop towards order after becoming disordered, so Second Law followed by Fourth Law
2214
. The regeneration of a forest after a wildfire is a natural example of this process, called ecological succession
2215
. The generative process is powered by insolation. It does not draw down on natural bounty capital. It is appropriate to call this the Restoration Axiom in contrast to the opposite process, the Life Axiom
The rebuilding of New Orleans following hurricane Katrina is a synthetic example of a generative process following a dissipative one, the Restoration Axiom. It is different, however, in that the generative process entails a significant draw down of natural bounty capital while ecological succession does not. The Restoration Axiom is the formalization of any event that occurs in nature or in the body of civilization that leads from order to disorder followed by an action that tends to restore order. Evolution has entailed a host of events falling into the Life Axiom and Restoration Axiom
135

categories. But these natural events have generally entailed a negligible draw down of natural bounty capital. On the other hand, the synthetic events in these two categories have irreversibly drawn down on this limited natural capital so comprise an unsustainable procedure. They are contributing to the entropic growth of Gaia. This consequence is summed up in the Dependence on Nature Law.
The use of the terms ‘open’ and ‘closed’ systems is misleading because it suggests that only these two, discretely different situations are possible whereas the reality varies from one extreme to the other but is more often somewhere in between.
The hydrological cycle
It helps to clarify what happens to examine the hydrological cycle in detail
2219
. It is an energy transformation process in which water is the material. We start with evaporation of water from the ground, a lake, the sea or a leaf. Heat inflow from the air causes some water to go through a phase change to water vapor during evaporation. The entropy of that water is decreased. That is the first process and it is reversible
2220
by heat extraction when the surroundings are cooler, like at altitude. This low-density vapor rises so its gravitational potential energy
2221
increases. This comes from that of the higher density surrounding air dropping. There is a mechanical energy flow from air to water vapor. So
136

the entropy of the water decreases further as it rises. That is the second stage of the process. The ascending water vapor climbs into colder air. It tends to condense into a water droplet if there is a suitable particle to activate this third process. The vapor dissipates its heat of vaporization to the surrounding colder air in that condensation process. This causes the entropy of the water to increase. These droplets form clouds 2222 .
These droplets eventually
2223
fall as rain
2224
or some other form of precipitation
2225
, like snow. They lose their gravitational potential energy to increase the kinetic energy and in heating the passing air in this process as the result of friction. The entropy of the water droplets increase slightly with the heat dissipation. Finally, they yield up their mechanical energy to heat the material, water, soil, leaves etc, which they land on. This impact increases the entropy appreciably. The cycle is now complete. That sequence of stages forms the basic, irreversible hydrological cycle. It is appropriate to recognize this cyclic phenomenon by the Cyclic Axiom. Each process where energy is not added, a closed stage, is a manifestation of the Second Law with entropy increasing. Each stage in which energy is added to the water, an open stage, is a manifestation of the Fourth Law with entropy decreasing. It does make one wonder how the hydrological cycle eventuated. It is so crucial to the sustenance of life. No doubt there is speculation on how it arose. I believe it is sufficient here to see it as one of the wonders of nature. It is what happens.
And what happens is the central view in this essay. It is one of those cycles that enable
Gaia to continue to operate ceaselessly. It is cyclic because energy
2226
is input to the water during the generative stage of the cycle, the application of the Fourth Law. It is not a process contributing to global entropic growth
2227
. This natural cycle, however, is often perturbed by storage and distribution systems installed to facilitate human use 2228 , hydroelectric generation
2229
and agriculture irrigation
2230
purposes
2231
. These perturbations have a trivial influence on the cycle although they generally involve an associated eco cost for the installations and operation 2232 .
137

The carbon cycle
2234
is receiving a lot of attention because of its impact on global warming, so climate change
2235
. It is a chemical energy transformation process involving carbon dioxide, oxygen, water, nutrients and carbohydrates between the complementary plants
2236
and animals
2237
that make a major contribution to the natural balance.
Oxidation of decaying plant material provides another appreciable natural emission
2238 while the oceans absorb large amounts of carbon dioxide so is a sink. The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere had been steady at about 280 parts per million (ppmv) in recent millennia
2239
until we really started to burn fossil fuels. The consequent emission of carbon dioxide has caused the level to rise to 381 ppmv
2240
and so initiate irreversible global warming by increasing the blanket
2241
around the globe. This carbon dioxide level is currently rising at about 2 ppmv each year as countries bluster about what can be done to control the irreversible 2242 climate change 2243 . The natural carbon cycle is like the hydrological cycle. It is an irreversible material process with its entropy level decreasing and increasing according to whether energy 2244 is being input into the process or not 2245 .
Photosynthesis extracts carbon from the carbon dioxide to make carbohydrates and expel
138

oxygen to the atmosphere. That is, plants, forests
2246
in particular, are generally what are called carbon sinks
2247
. The oceans absorb carbon dioxide so they are also natural carbon sinks
2248
. Animals exhaust carbon dioxide
2249
so they are, together with oxidation of decaying plant material, natural carbon sources. The sinks and sources tended to balance in recent times 2250 until fossil fuel burning irreversibly destroyed the balance 2251 . What was a natural cycle is now a spiral of contribution to global entropic growth.
The nitrogen cycle is another natural cycle that has been anthropogenically perturbed
2253
, so contributing slightly to increasing global entropy. In the natural cycle involving the atmosphere, bacteria both fix (convert atmospheric nitrogen to nitrogen compounds) and denitrify compounds to atmospheric nitrogen. There is also the cycle of nitrogen compounds through plants and animals. These natural cycles have been perturbed by fossil fuel burning and the use of artificial ‘fertilizers’ 2254 generated by the
139

Haber-Bosch Process using natural gas
2255
. N
2
O has risen in the atmosphere as a result of agricultural fertilization, biomass burning, cattle and feedlots, and other industrial sources. This has resulted in acid rain
2256
and ozone depletion
2257
. Nitrite contamination of groundwater has also led to dead zones in marine ecosystems
2258
.
Image:Cyclone Catarina from the ISS on March 26 2004.JPG
Hurricanes
2260
have been receiving a lot of publicity. They spontaneously arise where the temperature conditions in the ocean and atmosphere are appropriate
2261
. Heat energy from the water is transformed into kinetic energy in the winds of the hurricane
140

because of the low pressure in its center
2262
. These winds, so the strength of the hurricane, grow whilst the driving circumstances continue
2263
. The hurricane continues to get heat input to transform to additional kinetic energy
2264
. It dies when the driving circumstances no longer exist. The water is cooler. It is an example of an energy transformation process, but taking place in air. If the life of the hurricane involves only wandering over the ocean then it does little harm. Its kinetic energy eventually all dissipates to heat
2265
. It is an example of the natural Life Axiom 2266 . Insolation provided the energy input and a slight temperature rise in the atmosphere was the energy out. It does not contribute to global entropic growth. There is essentially no eco cost. Its localized low entropy, due to heat input, is transitory
2267
.
That covered the development of a hurricane. We know development is the consequence of functioning. We can examine that by considering a parcel of air and its properties, pressure, temperature and velocity, related by known physical laws. This originally quiescent parcel acquires kinetic energy by heat input
2269
to become part of the wind then ultimately dissipates
2270
the kinetic energy by viscous friction
2271
. That is the contribution of that parcel of air to the functioning of the hurricane. Its entropy decrease then increases.
Hurricane Katrina
2273
was different, not in its nature but in the consequences.
Natural forces caused it to make landfall where it did appreciable damage to humans and their goods, services and infrastructure. Its wind energy formed storm surges that demolished structures rather than just petering out as true waste heat. It destroyed order in civilization’s Body 2274
. It contributed significantly to localized entropic growth
2275
.
The irony is that it did this because the components 2276 of civilization’s order were there to be destroyed
2277
. Some argue that this is an example of nature rectifying the harm done by humans 2278 . I believe it is sufficient to know simply what happened. Katrina is an example of a natural irreversible lifed phenomenon that did appreciable damage to the
Body of civilization. There is no need to speculate on why here. Hurricanes are a natural phenomenon and it was foolish not to make appropriate allowance for this possibility 2279 .
This has become more important now that it is appreciated that climate change could well increase the impact of hurricanes
2280
141

The hydrological, carbon, phosphorus, sulfur and nitrogen cycles characterize the normal operation of Gaia
2282
, with the operations of civilization now perturbing them significantly. Hurricanes are examples of natural lifed phenomena that intermittently upset the normal operation
2283
. The functioning of my body is also predominately cyclic 2284 with the occasional short-lived upset like a cold or toothache.
Clarifying the irreversibility of energy and material flows is one of the purposes of this essay. The fact that the decision-making that activates these processes is not similarly constrained is the other. Taking the two in conjunction leads to a vastly improved understanding of what human activities have done to the operation of the ecosystem. It is like a plague as it has been uncontrolled feeding on the available natural resources producing irrevocable wastes and devastating the environment. The Mind
2286
of society has made unwise decisions
2287
about what use can be made of the goods and services provided by Gaia, despite the efforts of the Brain. This has led to the cancerous growth of the material foundations of our civilization. We laud the buildings, the highways, and the cities that show what we have done and ignore the eco cost for construction and maintenance
2288
. We praise our achievements – in devastating the environment. These transitory foundations form what I call the Body of civilization, what has been built up from what Gaia has had to offer, the natural bounty
2289
.
We move on to discuss the first novel axiom in detail
2291
. The First, Second and
Fourth Laws of Thermodynamics provide insight into energy flow
2292
. They are immutable. Physicists and engineers understand this. Yet the laws are open to misinterpretation by those without their understanding. Some of the misunderstanding arises from the context to which they are applied. The First Law says that energy is neither created nor destroyed
2293
. Most people would be inclined to ignore the First Law, so its implications, because it conflicts with their view of energy 2294 . One view is that they can get as much (industrial) energy as they are prepared to pay for. The other is that they feel that they have a lot of (personal) energy
2295
. The fact of the matter is that all the energy used on Earth came from the Sun originally and ends up being radiated back out into space although it is often diverted to do useful work
2296
.
The Second Law effectively says that the quality of energy in a flow degrades as it is transformed during the process. This often takes the form of separation of the energy
142

into two streams in a stage of the process with the high entropy portion dispersing as true waste heat and the low entropy portion doing work or being the energy out
2298
of the stage
2299
.
Lambert
2301
believes a lot of the confusion about the Second Law and entropy comes from using the terms open and closed systems. I will get back to that point shortly.
We can examine an energy flow process
2302
by following what happens to energy input
(often called the available energy or exergy) 2303 and follow it through to exit. This flow has direction. That is, it is irreversible. The flow from exit to inlet is not possible.
Examples
2304
serve to illustrate that this is so. When you release an object it falls
2305
. A cup of coffee cools
2306
. A punctured tire deflates
2307
. The First Law tells us that the energy at input to the process is conserved
2308
but tells us nothing about what form it takes during the process
2309
. The Second Law tells us that whatever the nature of the energy process, exergy content is reduced and entropy increased in the direction of the energy flow. The sum is constant as ordained by the First Law as no energy is added to or lost from the object and surroundings during the process. The object in your hand has gravitational potential energy with the amount being defined by its weight
2310
and the height above the ground
2311
. When you release it, it speeds up
2312
so acquires kinetic energy (of motion) at the expense of the potential energy. At the same time, air friction ensures some of this potential energy is transformed to heat that is dissipated to the surrounding air. En route, then, there are three energy components – potential, kinetic in the body and heat
2313
in the body and air. Then it hits the ground. Potential and kinetic energy are now zero. The collision with the ground has transformed all the remaining energy to heat that eventually dissipates to the air 2314 . The result of dropping the object is to transform the input potential energy (low entropy) that you gave it into high entropy heat. We can gain some understanding of this energy flow process by observation and more by measurements. But we need the understanding provided by physics to quantify the process. Newtonian Laws of Motion enable us to calculate height and speed as a
function of time knowing the acceleration due to gravity is constant
2315 . Knowledge of aerodynamics
2316
enables us to make the small correction due to the friction of the air past the object. Thermodynamics
2317
enable us to calculate the amount of heat generated when the object hits the ground. We are able to do this because of the understanding
143

gained by Newton and fellow physicists in recent centuries. This type of knowledge led to the inventions that enabled the industrial revolution and many subsequent developments
2318
. That is the positive side of scientific contributions
2319
. They are quite well recognized
2320
. There is something missing, however, in discussing this example!
We only covered the fall. If I want to repeat the experiment, I need to pick the object up. I give it some energy in doing that. It is the Fourth Law in operation for this body-dropping operation. It is also another stage in the energy dispersive process from insolation to plant to food for me so the energy to lift up the object. This complete process is an example of the Life Axiom that characterizes all energy transformation processes
2321
. It is analogous to the hurricane, a natural example of the Life Axiom in operation. The only difference is that I made the decision to pick up the object and let it go to activate the final stage, the object dropping. For comparison, the hydrological cycle
2322
is a natural example of the
Cycle Axiom that has operated continuously for eons.
We are able to observe many similar irreversible energetic processes. We have already discussed hurricanes. Surfers like to use breaking ocean waves
2324
. Mudslides are not so popular. Skiers take advantage of the possibility in downhill runs. Consequently we are aware of many others that must occur even though we may not necessarily observe them.
For example, we know that we have to apply a force to get fluid to flow through a pipe because friction on the walls will apply a contrary force. They have to balance so the applied force, using a pump
2325
, gives the fluid speed necessary for the balance. We regard that as being simple to understand. That is because of the pioneering understanding by Newton and the like. The water flow through the pipes in our houses operates on these principles. So does the oil flow in pipelines from the fields to the tanker terminals. The blood flow through my arteries is similar. The air and gases flowing through an airliner’s engines share similar characteristics. They come under the field of fluid dynamics.
These pioneering physicists aimed to provide understanding of the laws governing irreversible energy processes. This led to the statement of these laws and the introduction of specialized terms like entropy to formalize what happens. The entropy discussed above is termed thermodynamic entropy by Lambert
2327
to distinguish from the broader
144

definition generally used. It deals simply with the state of the energy in an action or process. When an action or process is activated
2328
there is a spontaneous trend of the energy towards equilibrium
2329
. That is the definition that relates increasing entropy
2330
to the tendency to go from order
2331
to disorder. Note that definition allows an entropy decrease in those circumstances where there is an energy input into the process 2332 . In fact, some people use the term negentropy for this situation. This is understandable when you consider how complex systems have evolved. There has been a tendency for increasing order, thus decreasing entropy, as the ecosystem has evolved over eons. Gaia is an open system because of the energy income from the Sun, so the evolutionary increase in order
2333
in Gaia is quite understandable
2334
. It does not conflict with the
Second Law because insolation provides the energy input. The Fourth Law took place in the Sun. Gaia contains a multitude of energy processes that have been driven by insolation for eons. That increase in system order is a reasonable view but it tends to hide the fundamental fact that energy transformation processes are irreversible and end up as true waste heat. For that understanding, we need to go back to what we know from experience backed by the thermodynamics of these energy processes, as illustrated by the examples. That is, we know these processes are irreversible but that does not necessarily mean that entropy increases: if energy is input then entropy could decrease, but this tends to be localized and temporary. That is very difficult, especially for the non-technical, to understand. I aim to clarify this below by examining coal and iron ore examples.
Here, the generalized concept of entropy is being considered. That is, entropy increase is a measure of increasing disorder. This raises the interesting point that increasing knowledge is often regarded as increasing order in a system. This is tantamount to an open system with intellectual energy input. It presumes that some undefined order is increasing. That is a very dubious assumption, to say the least, when you consider the result of the information explosion in recent years 2336 ! However, we are only examining here what happens when ecological operations take place, not metaphysical 2337 . We will therefore only consider the order, so the entropy, associated with this type of operation. For example, more operational information, improved knowledge, so some greater quality of intellectual energy input
2338
, could make a coalburning power station operate more efficiently so more work would be done but the
145

overall entropy increase
2339
would be much the same
2340
. The character of the energy transformation process in the station would be essentially unchanged
2341
.
The notion of the fundamental applicability of the tendency to go from order to disorder stemmed from a statistical consideration of microscopic objects obeying
Newton’s Laws of Motion. That leads to the macroscopic view that any energy system away from equilibrium, so having a degree of order, will spontaneously tend towards equilibrium, so tends towards disorder, when it is activated 2343 . That is, its entropy will increase. The simple examples already cited illustrate this behavior for ecological systems. The central point being made here is that it does not apply to thoughts. I argue that there is no reason to believe that my thoughts have a tendency towards disorder simply because I think!
2344
. I am aware of arguments by scientists that information can be defined in terms of the number of bytes, so yielding a value of entropy. That is looking at entropy from the microscopic point of view: that is not necessary here where we are dealing with the macroscopic operation of the ecosystem. The practical view adopted here is it is not necessary to quantify what constitutes order or disorder in the knowledge
(intellectual energy) we apply to the operation of ecological systems. As a corollary, the decisions made by humans are unconstrained by some ecological law. I believe that most people intuitively have that view and I only raise it here because information entropy is sometimes cited in discussions of what happens. To avoid any confusion, we are dealing with entropy of ecological operations and processes, not the entropy of information.
This apparent dichotomy has now been resolved for this essay. What we are referring to is the difference between Mind and Body. We are taking the position that the entropy being considered here relates to matter and the associated energy operations in the Body and its host, Gaia. So we will return to discussing what has happened to the ecosystem, or, to use our analogy, what has happened to the Body and Gaia. We do not need to make a judgment here on the soundness of the thoughts in the Mind. That is left until later. But we recognize that the thoughts, the intellectual energy input, do ensure that some of the operations of the Body are activated 2346 and they contribute to the temporary order in the Body
2347
.
We will examine the flow of a parcel of energy from its origin through to its
ultimate destination for a number of typical examples to illustrate the nature of its entropy
146

development. Each parcel of energy has a life. It may be stored (say for millions of years in coal
2349
) but it will inevitably dissipate to true waste heat after use
2350
. Entropy will increase at each stage in the life of the process, as there is no physical energy input during these stages
2351
. This is a closed system in operation is a common way of looking at what happens but that view can be confusing 2352 .
Coal is employed to generate the electricity used in industry, commerce and homes. It was produced over eons by natural forces and processes acting on biomass underground 2354 . We do not need to go into the detail here. It is sufficient for our purposes to recognize that deposits of coal have been found worldwide
2355
and are being mined for a variety of purposes, including the generation of electricity. The brown coal being mined at Yallourn had been lying there for millions of years before people became aware of its potential. In those circumstances, it had no actual potential to do useful work
2356
even though its intrinsic thermodynamic entropy was low
2357
. The knowledge that enabled people to discover the field and mine it has improved its perceived potential immensely
2358
. But it has had no impact on what happens when the coal is ignited in air, the initial stage in the actual energy flow process being examined here
2359
.
The chemical energy in the coal was there but it could not be used. Combustion of coal can only occur with activation (ignition) in the presence of oxygen (generally in air).
We can say that this concentration of a carbon deposit represents a low degree of perceived order even though its intrinsic order is quite high. Entropy is a technical measure of the degree of order but, as noted, we have to be careful of the context in which it is used. The entropy referred to here pertains to the actual energy process, not how humans have viewed the situation 2361 . The bigger the deposit and the richer the vein the greater the order is in the human view
2362
. It has more potential to ultimately provide electricity 2363 . From the objective, physical point of view, it has entropy somewhat less than that of thermodynamic equilibrium (so it has potential to do work) that depends on the quality of the coal only
2364
.
Coal deposits have been islands of low entropy for eons. Then humans learnt that coal was a valuable source of heat. They learnt how to find and mine coal. They learnt how to build and operate the machinery needed in the mines and to ready the coal for combustion. This knowledge enabled the potential to release energy from coal to be
147

greatly improved rapidly over recent centuries. The order of the coal was increased in the perception of society. Here is a natural resource we can freely use was the view of the leaders of society. This is an example of the flow of information leading to increasing apparent
2366
order
2367
, although, of course, it had no impact on the nature of the coal
2368
.
It is the conventional view that this ability to utilize coal is an example of uniquely human cleverness
2370
. It is not, however, in principle. All living creatures apply a degree of knowledge continually. They know what to eat. They know how to ensure their species will continue. The beaver knows how to build a dam. However, it is an example of the vastly greater ability of humans to adapt (or mal-adapt) the operation of the environment for their purposes
2371
. It is a combination of degree of intelligence
2372
, ability to communicate and the ability to produce technology to implement ideas
2373
. The study of the human intellectual capability is now called memetics. We delve further into that in relation to decisions later.
This ability to increase perceived order due to human cleverness is not in conflict with the Second Law, as some authors have claimed
2375
. The Second Law applies to energy dispersive flow processes, as we have seen. It also applies to aging systems. It does not apply here; because we are considering Body order increase due to intellectual energy input into the system, so a manifestation of the Fourth Law. The intellectual energy, however, does not degrade with input to the coal handling system
2376
. It is not subject to the Laws as it is an intangible.
This characteristic of the intellectual energy is a crucial point so we will at it from another point of view to aid clarification. To do this we will compare this input of intellectual energy with the input of energy in the reduction of iron ore. There the heat energy from the coke goes partly to increasing the bond energy, so converting iron oxide to metallic iron, while the remainder is dispersed as true waste heat. The process has a relatively low efficiency. That parcel of energy has been used up. On the other hand, nothing happens to the intellectual energy that is input: it is unaffected by acting to increase order. The efficiency is 100%. It is a catalyst. The intellectual energy was obtained at a prior eco cost
2378
augmented by that intangible, intelligence
2379
.
The mining, transportation
2381
and preparation of the coal are necessary preliminaries to the extraction of industrial energy by combustion
2382
. There will be a
148

consequential increase in the entropy of Gaia that is associated with this preparation even though the thermodynamic entropy of the coal will have remained the same, low so having a potential to supply energy to do work
2383
. For example, the machinery employed in the mining and crushing processes would have used an appreciable amount of fuel together with intellectual energy input 2384 from the drivers. These operations would have entailed an appreciable increase in the entropy of Gaia. So would the exhaust of greenhouse gas emissions from the engines of these machines. We do not need to understand the entropy concept to appreciate the realities of the use of appreciable quantities of natural resources plus human know how to get the coal ready for firing in the furnace and the true waste heat and materials produced in doing so
2385
. These operations could well have also required the use of appreciable quantities of water, which can be scarce. The mining would also have resulted in a decrease in Gaia order through the felling of trees, the uprooting of fertile soil, the contamination of creeks and the like.
The mine could also be having an impact on the geodiversity
2386
so possibly local biodiversity. It is important to appreciate that the increase in entropy in Gaia is due to the irreversible use of material and industrial energy resources during these operations and in the past
2387
. The information contributes to the increase of the perceived order of the coal mining
2388
, so Body order, but does not constitute a change in the thermodynamic entropy of the coal itself
2389
. That is, the input of intellectual energy does affect the Body state.
The perceived Body order increase possible because of the use of knowledge
2390
is not a delusion
2391
because it is looking at the positive side of the picture only. The associated increase in the disorder of Gaia due to exacerbating toxic waste production and environment devastation is often largely ignored 2392 because the operators of the system do not have to pay to clean it up
2393
. The information enabled the Body order increase in coal processing 2394 and the associated entropy increase in the ecological environment,
Gaia, while not affecting the thermodynamic entropy of the coal itself. This functioning in an inorganic system
2395
is similar to the entropy production
2396
associated with all living organisms 2397 . It is an illustration of the similarity between organic and inorganic processes brought out by Lovelock in the Gaia theory.
This seemingly logical approach to the use of coal is out of place in assessing what happens when the coal is used. It gives rise to the common misunderstanding of our
149

use of resources. It invites the view that we have been so clever to devise the means of using this coal that we have the right to use it, without regard to the future and whilst ignoring the consequential damage to the environment. It has encouraged the view that we can use the coal without consideration of the deleterious consequences
2399
. The knowledge acquired about using coal comes into the realm of why we have been able to use it, not what happens when we use it: the aspect we are concentrating on here because there is so much misunderstanding of the ensuring consequences.
The entropy considered henceforth in this trace of a parcel of energy is the thermodynamic entropy associated with what happens in the process of supplying electricity. The discussion will bring out a crucial point that needs to be borne in mind.
The order achieved in the Body of our civilization, like the skyscrapers of Docklands
2401
, is only transitory and obtained at the expense of a contribution to the rapid
2402
increase in
Gaia’s entropy due to the draw down of the natural bounty. The apparent increase in localized order due to our knowledge about coal mining can be a delusion from the ecocentric point of view. Its use incurs an appreciable un-repayable eco cost that includes the impact of climate change. But it can continue to play a worthwhile but transitory role
2403
in the operation of society
2404
.
So now we have coal in a power station able to provide low thermodynamic entropy energy. This is available industrial energy (exergy
2406
). The combustion of this coal is activated (ignited) in the furnace. This only has to be done occasionally, as the combustion is spontaneous and self-sustaining once started. Heat is generated. Some of it heats the water to steam in the boiler but a lot of it goes out the exhaust with the emissions, a mixture of solid particles, gases and water vapor. We do not need any clever scientific terminology to tell us that this process is irreversible
2407
. This is common knowledge and deeper understanding of the technicalities of the process supports it.
However, we do need more operational information about how to handle this combustion process to limit the effect of the emissions on climate change
2408
and pollutants on human health 2409 . We know the exhaust gases include carbon dioxide, which is the major contributor to global warming
2410
. But there is also mercury
2411
that affects people’s memory
2412
. And now climate change could be exacerbating the mercury predicament
2413
.
The sulfer dioxide can cause acid rain
2414
. Particulates cause respiratory predicaments
2415
.
150

Geosequestration
2416
is being touted as a means of reducing the emission of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. That possibility requires further research and development.
Its application would tend to reduce the Gaia entropy increase associated with the coal combustion. But it would also entail an associated natural bounty decrease in operating the geosequestration process. It then comes down to a question of worth. Is the reduction in carbon dioxide emission into the atmosphere, so the associated climate change, worth the additional eco cost? That sort of assessment is promoted in this essay but it is a real problem, yet to be rationally faced 2417 . It makes no difference, however, to the basic principle that the coal-fired power station entails an un-repayable eco cost during its lifetime
2418
. The users of the electricity value it though
2419
.
The generated steam uses some of its energy to make the turbines rotate and so drive the generators. This rotation is another irreversible loss process with which we are familiar. Friction in the bearings means some of the rotational energy is converted to heat. There is another loss but this one is generally not recognized. An appreciable amount of energy has to be extracted from the steam to accelerate the turbine plus generator at start up. This rotational energy generally is not recovered at shut down so is another, albeit small, irreversible loss, so thermodynamic entropy increase.
The rest of the energy in the steam generally goes as true waste heat, largely in the cooling water
2422
system. About half the energy extracted from the coal has now been dissipated and has high entropy. It is not very useful. Some of the heat in the cooling water could be used for some purpose but that would entail an additional system. That would require another worth assessment. Rationally, its installation would be based on ecological worth. Realistically, it would be based on financial value. This disinformation could well result in a greater increase in Gaia’s entropy than necessary. Unnecessary entropy growth is a characteristic of industrialized society 2423 . It is a ‘bad’ that is fostered by economic growth that is commonly regarded as a ‘good’ by business and the policy makers
2424
!
The relatively low thermodynamic entropy electrical energy is transformed up in voltage for conduction down the transmission line, with further losses through dissipation. That is, the thermodynamic entropy of the functioning energy process increases further. The losses depend on the voltage and the length of the transmission
151

lines. This transmission is only possible because prior knowledge was utilized in the design and construction of the system. Improved knowledge could well result in a decrease in the losses so a decrease in the thermodynamic entropy of the electricity delivered
2426
. This improvement could well come without an increase in Gaia’s entropy.
This would show the worth of improved knowledge when applied in a relevant context. It does not, however, affect the issue we are examining, the irreversibility of the industrial energy process of transforming the chemical energy in coal to electricity.
Suppose this electrical energy is used in a motor driving a lathe. A little of the energy would be used in losses in the motor, so dissipated as true waste heat. The remainder would do the work of removing material from the piece in the chuck. The piece would be heated up by this action so the remaining energy would be also dissipated to the surroundings as true waste heat
2428
.
It would be relatively easy for a team of engineers to account for the energy released by the combustion process as dispersion to the environment as high entropy heat at each of the various stages. The sum of the components due to the various loss mechanisms would total that released by combustion (the low entropy energy input: exergy)
2430
. The efficiency of the process is conventionally regarded as the ratio of the energy supplied to the user (to drive the lathe in this instance) over that released by the combustion. Most consideration of matters like this end with the supply of industrial energy to the user
2431
. That is, the remainder of its life is not considered to be relevant in supply, so what the user is to be charged
2432
. There is an inherent efficiency associated with the process but the one attainable in practice can be improved by better design. The worth of the product can be improved by the knowledge of the engineers involved. This improvement, however, makes very little difference to the eco cost unaccountably incurred 2433 . This is a crucial point in understanding what industrial operations are doing to the ecosystem 2434 . Remember, however, that this is the energy transmission process only. This is not accounting for installation and functioning of the necessary mining, plant and transmission system. It is a typical scientific idealization for making a specific point. It does mean, however, that other, relevant, points are not referred to.
This following of what happens to the parcel of energy helps us to understand what invariably happens to physical energy when it is used, whether in industry or in
152

nature. This sort of understanding helps engineers to make improvements. It helps business people to make better competitive bids. However, it helps people to better understand what our activities are doing to natural resources not one iota! It gives no indication of the eco cost. Its only materialistic lesson is that physical energy is invariably dissipated to true waste heat when used 2436 . That is of little practical concern! This examination of the energy process in isolation has led society to ignore – until now – the associated damage to the environment.
These figurers all relate to the subject irreversible energy flow process. They give the breakdown in using the industrial energy capital in the coal to do the useful work in driving the lathe. That is, the use of an exhaustible natural resource to drive a lathe and produce true waste heat. This is a very simple life story for a parcel of energy. School children would be able to understand it – if it were put to them. Politicians show they cannot, even with the help of scientific advisors. No doubt this is partly due to the fact that they traditionally believe that such resources are nature’s gift to humans. They do not even think about what happens when this natural resource runs out. They give little thought to what the system that generates the electricity does to the ecosystem. They are only now
2438
thinking about the consequences of producing carbon dioxide in making use of the coal
2439
. They certainly would not estimate the eco cost
2440
. They think money runs everything
2441
!
That was a simple story about what happens in a physical energy flow. It is analogous to what happens to energy in my body. Entropy is inevitably produced in this operation
2443
. I eat food to get energy that is available to drive a number of internal (like pumping blood) and external (like moving fingers to type these words) useful operations.
The energy doing internal work is output as waste heat in perspiration, urine and faeces.
The contribution to eco cost of this energy flow is the exergy in, as the energy out serves no useful purpose normally 2444 . My body, however, does not operate on energy flow alone so we will move on and be more realistic
2445
.
We examined the coal-fired power station an example of energy flow. It can also be used as an example of a material flow process, so contributing to the first of the
axioms we are examining, the Consequence Axiom . We have seen that the First, Second
and Fourth Laws of Thermodynamics are formalizations of the principles governing all
153

physical energy flows. Conservation of mass is an analogous law for material transformation processes. The coal mining results in the extraction of the useful coal and the production of exacerbating waste material. The same applies to the transportation and crushing, so when it is put into the furnace for combustion a lot of useless waste has already been produced and geodiversity perturbed, with a consequent impact on biodiversity
2447
. The result of combustion is the useful energy (exergy) already discussed and the hot waste exhaust (gases 2448 , water vapor and particulates 2449 ), ash 2450 and slag.
There is a trail of exacerbating waste material from the mine to the power station. This is an irreversible production of waste, so an increase in disorder, an input to Gaia’s entropic growth, whilst the powers station is functioning
2451
. This implicit, un-repayable eco cost
2452
is the most important lesson to be learnt from this example, the generation of electrical energy in a coal-fired power station.
The discussion of the energy and material flows in the coal-fired power station example was separated
2454
above to make the point that it is misleading to examine the energy flow in isolation. In practice they operate in conjunction. They are inseparable in actual operations. That is easy to appreciate when you think about it, yet it is generally ignored in discussions of that important commodity, industrial energy
2455
. Businesses are concerned with supplying industrial energy to the market in the most profitable manner.
They are not concerned with whether the electricity is used for air-conditioning or the TV or powering a tram. They do not accept the responsibility to include all externalities in their costings, unless forced to, and this is rare even today
2456
.
The crucial point is that the energy flow has a negligible impact on the operation of the ecosystem because it results in true waste heat that is radiated back out to space 2458 .
On the other hand, the material flow produces toxic waste materials that do perturb the operations of the ecosystem. The influence of carbon dioxide on the climate is just one, but extremely important, example. We recognize the energy flow for the work that is done for us
2459
. We fail to recognize what the material flow does at our peril
2460
.
The day-to-day flow of energy and material in mining coal through to the running of the lathe is analogous to the day-to-day functioning of my body in some respects only.
Low entropy energy and material is input in both systems and high entropy energy
2462 and material exacerbating wastes expelled. Both processes contribute to entropic growth.
154

But there the analogy ends. I have a natural associate
2463
that compensates for the entropy increase in the flow through my body. The industrial coal flow process does not. Its daily supply of electricity comes at a significant eco cost. It is a draw down of the natural bounty, whatever the electricity is used for
2464
.
The processes functioning in my body occur naturally. The coal processing could not occur without the input from human sources of the operational information
2466 enabling discovery, mining, processing, operating and eventual dismantling of the system. That is a typical anthropogenic view. We look at the positives. Natural operational information systems control the self-regulating metabolism in my body. We are fooling ourselves when we say how clever we are
2467
! We really need to regulate the systems we install to ensure they do a worthwhile job
2468
. Much of the electricity that is generated is wasted, especially in the cities in the developed and developing countries
2469
.
I get energy by eating food that got its energy by photosynthesis with insolation input. The nature of this irreversible energy flow process is widely appreciated. Its role in global operations in comparison with industrial processes does not appear to be considered by most. The water I drink is contaminated when discharged. Its order has decreased so entropy increased
2471
. But the hydrological cycle includes a natural purification process
2472
, so an entropy decrease to compensate for what the processes in my body have done
2473
. There is, consequently, a supply of potable water available. I breathe in air for the oxygen required by my metabolism. This results in carbon dioxide being expelled. That is again an increase in entropy
2474
. Plants utilize this carbon dioxide in photosynthesis to produce growth
2475
and expel oxygen using energy input from insolation. This is the corresponding entropy decrease. Animals and plants complement each other
2476
in contributing to the maintenance of natural carbon balance
2477
. That is one of the wonders of nature we used to take for granted. We think we are so clever to invent the means to use coal that we have ignored, until now, the requirement to adapt to the damage its use does to the environment
2478
. So burning coal increases global entropy 2479 . The significance of what coal burning has done is dawning on some authorities even as its use grows rapidly, especially in China
2480
, in the desperate bid to
satisfy industrial energy demand s to make stuff
2481
.
155

We can summarize this comparison in different ways. My living comes at an eco cost but natural processes pay the way for the basic needs, including air, water and partially for food. Coal usage comes at a tremendous eco cost very different to what financial considerations suggest. Coal usage is a draw down of the natural capital and causes depreciation of the environment. The operation of my body does not draw down on natural capital and intrinsically does not depreciate the environment
2483
.
We used the coal-fired generation of electricity as an example of the irreversible flow of matter and energy in a system. It is also provides an example of the life of coal
2485
. Natural forces acting on biomass containing carbon for many years conceived it
2486
. It was born by discovery of the deposit. It grew up as it was mined, transported and crushed ready for use. It had then reached its highest potential. Subsequently it was fired.
Its potential was realized. The combustion yielded heat and a range of solid, gaseous, vapor products in the exhaust
2487
. Only some of the heat serves a useful purpose
2488
, the remainder is dispersed, generally to cooling water. The other products of the combustion are all waste matter. They do not serve a useful purpose. They have reached maximum entropy. That is the end of the life of the coal.
However, it is not the end of the consequences of using the coal. I am talking here of the ecological reality, not of how the politicians, business
2490
, media and community at large see the situation. Coal is dirty is a simple way of stating a harsh reality. The products in the exhaust depend to a large degree on the quality of the coal and the scrubbing methods employed. Geosequestration
2491
is being examined as a means of reducing the emission of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere
2492
. Underground coal
Gasification (UCG) is another possible means of extracting industrial energy from coal that may make a worthwhile contribution to mitigation
2493
.
The carbon dioxide emission from coal burning is now receiving wider attention because of its impact on global warming. Coal burning power stations are recognized as being the prime culprit
2495
. Some action is even taking place with the European Union and some U.S. States 2496 starting to employ carbon trading 2497 in a plan to progressively reduce carbon dioxide emissions
2498
. This action is most unlikely to have a measurable impact on climate change
2499
. The situation is being exacerbated by the construction of many more coal-fired power stations in U.S.
2500
, China
2501
and India in particular.
156

Sulfur dioxide
2503
emission from coal-fired power stations was found years ago to cause acid rain. Methods were adopted to reduce this emission by scrubbing of the exhaust gases, so the amount of acid rain fell in North America. This was a successful treatment of just one predicament. There was a financial cost involved but the eco cost of these emissions was reduced. It was ‘value for money’. Unfortunately, the same does not apply in China
2504
, which is very heavily dependent on industrial energy from coal. One third of China is affected by acid rain due to the 25.5 million tons spewed into the air each year by their power stations 2505 . So acid rain is still a major predicament but in different regions. The Chinese export, unwittingly, their sulfur dioxide
2506
!
The emissions by coal-fired power plants of greenhouse gases, a vast array of chemical by-products, and naturally occurring radioactive elements make coal much less desirable as an industrial energy source than was generally accepted. Understanding of the consequences is now emerging with some businesses changing their plans to take advantage of new opportunities. Coal ash is rich in minerals, including large quantities of aluminum and iron. These and other products of commercial value have not yet been exploited. Large quantities of uranium and thorium and other radioactive species in coal ash are not being treated as radioactive waste.
To sum up for a coal-fired power plant, it uses natural resources, including exhaustible ones like coal and oil (to provide fuel for the machinery used), to provide electricity over its operating lifetime. The numerous irreversible processes involved also generate wastes that generally perturb the operation of the ecosystem
2509
. That is, there are two components of the operation contributing to the eco cost of the lifetime of the plant. Wait! That is not so. There is often a third component. That is disruption of many useful services provided by nature
2510
. The use of the site for the power station, the mine and other elements is robbing the environment of some of its capability to contribute to a balanced ecology. The land taken up, for example, by London has, of course, had a much bigger impact. The value of London has been subject to much discussion over the centuries. It is seen to have made a great contribution to society. However, the total eco cost has not been counted
2511
. Mentally summing all these ecological robberies worldwide gives you an appreciation of what this third component has done to Gaia
2512
.
157

The use of coal to provide electrical energy for industrial, commercial and home use is widespread and increasing. This is despite the fact that its polluting effects are now quite widely recognized. There is little recognition, however, that its use entails an irreversible process that makes a significant contribution to the increase of Gaia’s entropy. It is not sustainable but that fact is readily ignored because supplies will be available for some time yet
2514
. There is almost nothing done to compare the worth of the service it provides 2515 to the eco cost entailed 2516 .
We have been concentrating on the geobiophysical realities of a coal-fired power station. It will be useful to digress for a while to compare this perspective with the commercial view. A company will decide to invest in the construction of a coal-fired power station because they consider that in the circumstances they will be able to make sufficient profit to satisfy the investors whilst providing a satisfying working environment, primarily for management. Let us consider the financial arrangements over the lifetime of this utility. The costs would include a royalty payment
2518
for the right to make use of the coal, the costs associated with the mining, transporting, processing and generating equipment and installations. There would also be the management, engineering, accounting, legal, financial and other costs. There could also be costs associated with winding up the operation, including demolition and remedial activities.
The aggregated income, the sale of electricity over the operating life of the utility would be somewhat greater than the aggregation of these costs. Superficially, this economic assessment of the operation is similar to our previous ecological assessment. It can be argued that the profit represents the contribution of intellectual energy to the operation. In actual fact, the ecological assessment accounts for what has actually happened. The aggregated eco costs represent the draw down on the natural bounty. It is a contribution to entropic growth for the region. The reduction in the coal reserves will have been noted for planning purposes. The demolition of the plant will have generated some useless true wastes. Natural forces will probably help to restore some of the ecological value of the mine and power station sites. The financial expenditure would have made some worthwhile contributions to the budgets of the workers but would also have enabled many excesses
2519
. Some of the use of the electricity produced could well have been worthwhile but much would doubtless have been unwise because the price does not really
158

reflect the eco cost. The whole exercise was an additional step in the demise of civilization in that region. The decision to go ahead with the power station was an irrevocable decision that would further ravage the ecosystem, no matter how wisely the product was used.
Let us not be too carried away with the lack of true cost –effectiveness of coal revealed above. It is not the only one. Let us look at what the true situation is with respect to a source of so-called ‘renewable’ 2521 energy, a wind farm 2522 .
Wind farms 2524 are increasingly seen as a viable source of what is commonly and misleadingly called renewable energy. There is also the claim that they result in lower greenhouse gas emissions. The only difference between a wind farm and our coal-fired power station in principle is that the source of the energy, wind is a continuing natural process. So it provides energy income
2525
. The energy from coal is energy capital. There are, of course, appreciable technical
2526
and ecological differences
2527
. Appreciable natural resources are used in constructing, maintaining and operating the wind farm and the associated equipment over its lifetime. Clearly, wind farms will not make a major contribution to the powering down of society.
The conclusion to be reached from this examination of the wind farm example is that it does not differ in principle from the coal-fired power station. It is a means of providing electricity to the user that entails the irreversible flow of energy from its source, the Sun, to its sink, outer space. The greatest practical difference is that the chemical energy in coal is stored for eons
2529
. The knowledge required to use natural resources to build and operate both systems differs only in detail. This knowledge tends to improve with use through learning and experience, but it is prejudiced by the belief that using this industrial energy exuberantly is worthwhile
2530
. The increase in knowledge is just the opposite of what happens to the energy and materials: they both inevitably end up as waste!
Oil plays the dominant energy role in the operation of modern society. It provides most of the transportation fuel but is also used in the production of many of the goods we still take for granted, despite the growing uneasiness amongst the informed about their deleterious effects
2532
. There is good reason to believe that the global supply of oil is
peaking at about 86 million barrels per day whilst demand , from the Asian giants in
159

particular, is growing rapidly
2533
. The conflicting statements from seemingly knowledgeable sources
2534
about when peak oil
2535
may occur makes fascinating reading
2536
. Demand destruction is bound to claim growing attention of many authorities in the near future
2537
. It is having, however, the greatest impact on those poor that use it for cooking. There is bound to be increasing competition for the remaining oil. We see this now as China
2538
and India actively pursue supply contracts in the Middle East,
Africa and South America. This competition 2539 is most likely to exacerbate conflict 2540 .
It is certainly changing the relations between the governments of the oil rich countries 2541 and the large oil corporations, to the benefit of the former
2542
.
The extraction, processing and use of oil to provide industrial energy to drive human operations are similar in principle to that of the coal-fired power station. It is an irreversible process that draws down on the natural capital 2544 . Its use generates wastes but they are not so degrading of the environment as those due to coal 2545 . Opening up an oil field can cause appreciable environmental damage but generally less than for a coal mine. However, because of the scale of its use, oil use probably contributes more to global entropic growth than coal
2546
.
Natural gas fills a similar role in industrial society to coal and oil in principle. It provides the user with energy and goods. There are detail differences with regard to
160

supply handing and usage that are having appreciable political, economic and environmental impact. The current Japanese protest about China opening gas exploration in the East China Sea is just one example of the emerging conflict about these exhaustible resources. The essential point, generally ignored, is that its exploitation entails an enormous eco cost for the subjective value to society 2548 . It does contribute appreciably to the construction and maintenance of essential infrastructure and the provision of services 2549 but also contributes to the manufacture of stuff, which is hardly worthwhile.
It plays a major role in food production so contributes indirectly to over population. So, like oil and coal, its usage contributes to unsustainable global entropic growth. Feasible energy supply alternatives
2550
can only, at best, slow down this irreversible lifed material and energy flow operation
2551
.
Fossil fuels are the major sources of the industrial energy that drives modern civilization. That is the good as most see it. There is growing recognition, however, in informed circles that burning fossil fuels does cause predicaments, with climate change
2553
apparently being the biggest
2554
. There is little recognition
2555
that these irreversible processes are making a major contribution to entropic growth
2556
. There is little recognition of the fact that bringing these industrial energy supplies to market is coming at an increasing
2557
eco cost. Deep-water wells in the Gulf of Mexico require the use of the most advanced technology
2558
but also consume more resources
2559
. This is a
reinforcing feedback mechanism (RFM) that is making it harder to meet demand . The
same principle is applying to most mining activities. The entropy increase of using these materials is increasing though the usage value is not. So the eco cost of using them is increasing, regardless of the value society puts on their use. The value of the services they provide is appreciated
2560
, the eco cost is hardly considered. This attitude to eco cost is not surprising, as most powerful people do not think about the ecological consequences of the supply of industrial energy. Their thoughts are on the dollars and the build up of the societal edifice and their empires.
Nuclear energy fills a niche role only in the supply of industrial energy for a number of reasons
2562
. There is no need to delve into those here
2563
. There is a revival
2564 in interest in nuclear energy as the limitations
2565
of the fossil fuels become more apparent
2566
. More nuclear plants may be built in U.S.
2567
and EU
2568
. In fact 3000 new
161

nuclear plants have been advocated for the U.S.. There is almost no possibility that such a large program will be instigated although a few are quite likely
2569
. They definitely will be built in China
2570
and even Australia
2571
is considering the matter
2572
. The rhetoric
2573 about the detail advantages
2574
and disadvantages
2575
of nuclear energy clouds the issue that its worth comes at an appreciable eco cost, largely because of the radioactive waste but cooling water can be an important issue. There seems to be the belief that the draw down of natural bounty can be afforded 2576 . There is still the possibility 2577 that nuclear fission will provide a continuing supply of industrial energy at a low eco cost. The irony is that if sufficient industrial energy supply should be ensured, it would discourage timely attempts to mitigate some of the other predicaments society has ‘invented’.
There are many other types of systems to supply industrial energy to the user that have or will be installed. Most are used to generate electricity but there is increasing emphasis on those that will provide fuels for transportation
2579
. In the main, they will fill niche roles only
2580
. Hydro has contributed appreciably to the generation of electricity in some countries
2581
for decades
2582
. Wind farms
2583
, solar and PV systems, geothermal
2584
, gas hydrates
2585
, wave machines are just some for generating electricity that are being fostered, assessed and installed. Ethanol
2586
, biofuels
2587
, coal to liquid
2588
are some of the contenders to partially replace the present transportation fuels
2589
as they decline in availability. The debates about the technical
2590
, fiscal, social, political
2591
and environmental merits of these alternatives hides the fact that they also entail irreversible processes that draw down on the natural capital and degrade the environment to some extent
2592
. Some do increase the natural bounty capital
2593
but that does not change the principle that the capital is being drawn down. Their eco cost, if that were evaluated, could be appreciably less than that of the fossil fuels only in some circumstances, especially as they necessitate major infrastructure changes 2594 . The fact remains, however, that industrial civilization has too much momentum along current economic growth lines to be able to initiate power down
2595
quickly and painlessly. There will be real rewards for those smart enough to make the wise decisions and great pain for those who stick with the belief that existing market forces are to be followed
2596
.
There is appreciable talk
2598
about converting to a hydrogen economy. The proponents of this fuel often do not present a balanced statement of what is entailed, so
162

presenting a biased view to those not familiar with the technical aspects
2599
. Hydrogen, like electricity, is only a carrier of energy, which has to be obtained from some source.
Ironically, one means is to use electricity to provide the energy to split water into hydrogen and oxygen in a process called electrolysis
2600
. Hydrogen can also be produced from natural gas but there is little to be gained by doing this except in some special circumstances. It is proposed that hydrogen fuel cells be used to power cars. It is not appropriate to consider here 2601 the complex issues of whether hydrogen will be a fuel widely used in the future and under what circumstances 2602 . It is sufficient to note that its supply also entails an irreversible energy transformation process that entails an appreciable eco cost
2603
. This cost is likely to be appreciably higher than for oil
2604
. It is most unlikely to find a significant place in the power down
2605
.
There is little doubt that the mix of systems providing industrial energy to drive the operations of industrialized society will change dramatically in the near future due to the declining availability of oil and natural gas in many regions
2607
. Systems to harness insolation or its derivatives currently meet only a small proportion of the requirements but that figure is increasing rapidly. Which systems should be installed where will continue to be debated because of the range of technical, financial, environmental and social factors involved
2608
. It is to be hoped that this debate will start to realistically take into account
2609
the eco cost of present industrial energy supply systems and the possible alternatives with particular reference to their sustainability.
We have examined what happens to coal when it is mined and utilized as an example of an industrial energy supply system. Let us now look at what happens when iron 2611 ore is mined and utilized in a typical manner, but for material supply. It is discovered, mined, transported and prepared for use just like coal. This is cleanly an irreversible practical process. But iron ore contains iron oxide, which is of little use as such. It has to be converted to metallic iron at high temperature. This is an endothermic chemical reaction driven by energy input, generally provided by the combustion of coke 2612 . Further processing changes it to steel to be used, say, in the construction of a skyscraper. It then has a degree of order
2613
. It can now serve a useful purpose. Its thermodynamic entropy is now low. This entropy decrease has been due to the input of heat energy from the coke. The thermodynamic entropy of the coke has increased by a
163

greater amount, as demonstrated by the heat dissipated from the process
2614
. Intellectual energy has not contributed to the thermodynamic entropy decrease of this material. That is because it has no impact on what actually happens in the process
2615
. It is not arguable as to what has happened to the thermodynamic entropy of iron ore plus coke at his stage.
The heat dissipated to the surroundings during the process identifies that there has been an overall entropy increase. The iron ore is now a useful material while the coke has become waste 2616 . But the use of the steel in the skyscraper is not the end of the story.
The skyscraper will be demolished some time in the future and the steel will become scrap. It will rust
2617
. That is a slow oxidation process
2618
. An outside coating will again become iron oxide. But it is not a reversal of the reduction process that produced metallic iron from the iron ore. The whole process is irreversible
2619
. The thermodynamic entropy of this material is now high. The entropy of the combined iron ore plus coke has now reached its maximum. The decision to mine the ore and use it gives it a life and an ultimate death. It is commonly argued that the iron has served a useful purpose in its lifetime
2620
and that mining and processing it for this purpose does little harm
2621
. On the other hand, some people will justifiably say the associated ecological damage is appreciable
2622
. This difference in viewpoint is really a matter of principle. It is a question of worth judgment that is generally obscured by being based on the misleading monetary value. The main matter of principle here is that mining of the iron ore is a draw down of the natural capital that is not properly costed by the usual financial measures
2623
. A deposit of iron ore can only be used once. It is irreplaceable. If scrap iron is ‘recycled’ its life is only prolonged by the use of other natural resources. Its thermodynamic entropy is temporarily decreased 2624 at the expense of a greater associated increase in the other materials
2625
. Unfortunately, the worth of this reuse of the iron is not generally weighed up against the eco cost, even though it may be financially valuable. These arguments miss the essential point that the whole process has an end point, the reduction of the coke and the iron ore to waste
2626
. The decisions have enabled the iron ore to have a low thermodynamic entropy life. The Body order when the skyscraper has been erected is transient
2627
. That order will depreciate despite the use of natural bounty for maintenance.
The decision to use the resources to build the skyscraper is a divestment
2628
. It is no different in principle to having a coal-fired power station generate electricity for the
164

production of goods. It entails an appreciable un-repayable eco cost. The worth of what is provided should really be weighed up against that eco cost
2629
. Its construction and operation contributes to global entropic growth, so the demise of industrial civilization for something of temporary value
2630
.
There are some who argument in the technical literature that materials like iron ore are not lifed because, given sufficient energy, the scrap iron can be really recycled 2632 . I mention that view here because it does seem to reinforce the common view that we do not need to worry about the depletion of natural materials. The argument is clearly untenable from a practical point of view
2633
. Cleveland
2634
notes how Georgescu-
Roegen explained the fallacy of that argument decades ago. Yet politicians and business people still laud the value of iron ore deposits as a resource bounty without counting the eco cost
2635
of using it and then scrapping it. They tend to go to sleep when the resultant steel is doing its job - temporarily.
So iron has a life. It is an example of the manifestation of the Fourth Law in generating a degree of order then the Second Law seeing that order degenerate. This life came at an eco cost but the iron (or steel) serves a worthwhile purpose (in out estimation) during its life. It would be possible to estimate a value of WoEC for that material. A plant goes through the same generative then dissipative process during its life. However, the eco cost comes out of income. The worth can be reasonable if the plant feeds animals or the soil as well as being a carbon sink. It is much less reasonable if the plant is converted, at an appreciable additional eco cost, into fuel
2637
for a car, which is a very inefficient means of moving a small load
2638
. The WoEC in those circumstances is abysmal
2639
but society is prepared to pay the price for this transient luxury 2640 and let the future generations go without.
We talked about using steel in a skyscraper. Let us now examine the life story of a skyscraper. Its construction, operation and eventual demolition required the use of human expertise (input of intellectual energy)
2642
, industrial energy and materials
2643
. The construction is essentially a manifestation of the Fourth Law, the generation of a degree of order in the Body of the resident city. Its operation is a manifestation of the Second
Law although its aging can be slowed down by adequate maintenance
2644
. The subsequent demolition results in the termination of the operation of the skyscraper (Life
165

Axiom). It serves a useful purpose from the human point of view during its lifetime. It was worthwhile. It takes land is one element the ecocentric viewpoint
2645
. It represents a transient degree of order until it is demolished with the production of a lot of true waste material. But true waste materials and heat were also produced during its construction and operation 2646 . We tend to look upon the erection of skyscrapers as being one of our accomplishments. Yet it bears only some resemblance to nature’s ability to nurture forest giants. Nature makes use of genetically encoded operational information 2647 , energy from insolation, carbon dioxide from the air, water from rain and elsewhere and nutrients from the soil. The tree
2648
provides goods and services useful to the nearby ecological community throughout its lifetime
2649
. Despite the similarities in principle, there are appreciable differences in the lives of the skyscraper and the forest giant. A major difference is in the materials used and the wastes produced. Some exhaustible materials
2650
are used in the construction and operation of the skyscraper. None are used in the growth
2651
of the tree. Material wastes
2652
are produced during the life of the skyscraper. None are generated during the life of the tree. Another major difference is that the tree contributes to the operation of the ecosystem
2653
. The skyscraper, if anything, inhibits that operation by taking up land. It contributes to the operation of society
2654
but at an irrecoverable eco cost. It is a transient element in the infrastructure enabling operations of society. In summary then, there is an appreciable eco cost involved in the existence of the skyscraper but negligible for the tree. The transient order of the skyscraper enabling it to fill a useful societal function comes at the cost of an associated increase in disorder in the ecosystem. It temporarily adds order to the Body of civilization at the prolonged expense of Gaia. The life of the skyscraper, consequently, contributes to global entropic growth. There is now slightly less natural resources to build more skyscrapers or meet other needs of the community. And those skyscrapers still standing represent an ongoing commitment to meeting the eco cost of maintenance, demolition and possible replacement
2655
.
It will aid the acquisition of perception of the ecocentric view we are taking here to compare the contributions of a farmer and a CEO. Society places much more value on the latter by way of financial recompense. The farmer uses knowledge, skill and personal physical energy to assist the ecosystem to produce food. This food is an essential part of
166

the life cycle of all animals, including us
2657
. The farmer therefore makes a positive contribution to the operation of the ecosystem. The CEO makes decisions about the operation of the corporation. They may enable the corporation to beat the opposition in selling the latest electronic gimmick. This contributes to the draw down of natural capital and the irrevocable generation of material true waste. The CEO is using knowledge to unknowingly degrade the ecosystem, very often for not worthwhile purposes. The CEO is a parasite while the farmer can be a contributor 2658 . It may be thought that, for example, engineers are also contributors but that is not necessarily so 2659 . Aerospace engineers would not like to think they have been deluded so they should not read this essay!
There was a time, even in recent centuries, and there are rural communities today where the eco cost of getting food on the table is small and nature does most of the work in this worthwhile task. This is not the case, however, in most cases in the ‘developed’ countries where fossil fuel subsidies and exotic tastes, especially in the cities, entail eco costs way out of proportion to the worth of the food
2661
. This is an unsustainable development because it is so intrinsically coupled to the declining fossil fuel supply.
There is the know how to produce large amounts of food in a much better fashion but that will only ease the emerging food supply predicament slightly.
The A380 airliner seems to have little in common with the production of steel or the construction of a skyscraper. But that depends on your viewpoint
2663
. It is a material object that has been built because of human know-how but with the consumption of appreciable natural resources including the use of a lot of industrial energy. It serves a useful purpose
2664
by transporting people around the globe for a limited time
2665
by burning irreplaceable fossil fuel 2666 and spewing greenhouse gases into the upper atmosphere where they can do the most harm. It provides a service valued by many. That is, it adds a little perceived order to the operations of society for a period at an appreciable eco cost. Then it ends up as scrap. That is, its life sees a contribution to entropic growth that is not compared to the subjective value given to its ability to carry many passengers from here to there. It is lauded as one of the marvels stemming from human cleverness
2667
while its real cost is ignored
2668
.
Let us now examine another common artifact of civilization, a city. Melbourne is a typical city
2670
. Not large by modern standards but it covers a large area
2671
with low-
167

density housing
2672
. It has over three million residents and the state government
2673
has plans for an additional million by 2030. It is trying to ease traffic congestion
2674
by building more freeways!
2675
The authorities are trying to ease its water supply
2676 predicaments by educational ads on TV and schemes of arguable worth
2677
, including energy hungry desalination 2678 . It used to have a renowned public transport system 2679 .
That has been allowed to run down and is now privatized
2680
so many of those living in the new suburbs are totally car dependent 2681 . And congestion on the ‘freeways’ worsens the situation 2682 . Melbourne is almost totally reliant for its food supplies from near 2683 and far, mostly far
2684
. A lot of its treated sewerage goes into the sea at Gunnamatta
2685
. It sends its toxic true toxic wastes out into the country
2686
. It gets most its electricity from brown-coal fired, dirty emissions, power stations in the Latrobe Valley
2687
. It imports most of its oil
2688
and natural gas from Bass Strait. The authorities are still talking about saving its two rivers from pollution
2689
. There are plans to dredge Port Philip Bay
2690
to enable the biggest container ships to birth at the Port of Melbourne
2691
. Yes, Melbourne is a typical city
2692
. It is a predatory parasite
2693
. It is dependent on a number of prey regions, including the nearby rural areas, for material support
2694
. Vast amounts of natural resources are used to keep it operating and they produce the usual true wastes. I need hardly mention that this operation is irreversible
2695
. Melbourne is continually making its contribution to global entropic growth
2696
as the political and business leaders
2697
crow about its economic growth. Melbourne was founded one hundred and sixty years ago. Its infrastructure
2698
and services
2699
are still growing rapidly because there is no realistic accounting for the eco cost involved against their perceived value
2700
. But reality will catch up with it and it will run down because the natural resources necessary for its maintenance will become scarcer
2701
. Disorder
2702
, so its contribution to global entropy, will increase. This aging may take some decades to become noticeable 2703 but it is certain 2704 , even though the city mothers and fathers give no thought to the prospect as they bask in their glory and make money
2705
.
Melbourne is a region of relatively low entropy as its infrastructure provides a degree of order in the operation of the ecosystem. This localized order has been obtained over the years by drawing down on natural resources, including those that provided the electrical energy and the fuels to drive the machinery used. Steel, bricks, concrete and
168

glass are just some of the materials that had to be produced. The labor employed also drew down appreciable natural resources at an eco cost because often the food had to be transported appreciable distances. All the energy used in these operations has, of course, dissipated to true waste heat after doing work. And a lot of true toxic waste materials have had to be disposed of 2707 . This means the construction of Melbourne, like all cities, has contributed to unnecessary global entropic growth. That is a measure, however, of what has happened in the physical operations only. The order we are referring to is of the structure only. The perceived value to the people of Melbourne of all this construction stems largely from the skills and expertise of the people
2708
who organized and carried it out
2709
. Putting it another way, the usage of the natural resources has entailed an appreciable un-repayable eco cost. That is the debit side. The worth of the resulting infrastructure is very dependent on the skills, expertise and judgment of those who made the decisions about the usage. These skills and expertise were acquired by the prior and ongoing expenditure of natural bounty coupled with the innate intelligence of the people involved. The people of Melbourne appreciate the worth of the infrastructure acquired at a vast material eco cost augmented by that intangible, intellectual energy. That is the credit side. Few, however, think about the eco cost and what that means for future generations
2710
. Ironically, some of the intellectual energy is passed on to future generations
2711
but all the natural bounty capital that is used in the process is gone forever
2712
.
The natural bounty available to Melbourne has varied appreciably during its history. In the early days the rudimentary tools and know how limited what fuels could be used, mainly wood.
The accumulated eco cost of Melbourne is awesome. We have saddled the ecosystem with a monstrous parasite. Its citizens value it as a base for their temporary delusion of a high standard if living. We cannot just swat this parasite out of existence when its time comes
2714
. We have lumbered society with an implied commitment to maintain this monstrosity by using some of the remaining natural bounty – when it wakes up to the urgent need to power down
2715
as the bounty declines rapidly and noticeably.
We can call Melbourne a city, a community or a system. Each term conveys an impression. It is a system that requires input of air, water, energy and materials for
169

functioning. It expels solid, liquid and gaseous wastes. That is, its day-to-day functioning is analogous to the day-to-day functioning of my body. It is intriguing that the analogy is still appropriate when an unexpected disruption occurs. The recent interruption to the electrical power supply due to bushfires cutting a transmission line led to a transient slow down of the functioning of Melbourne. A cold has a similar effect on the functioning of my body.
Melbourne is still growing. The population is increasing and many buildings are going up. This is not to say that all the associated infrastructure is keeping pace with this development
2718
. But overall, it is growing with the necessary input of natural resources and producing wastes. It is reminiscent of my adolescence. No, that is not right. A lot of the supporting infrastructure is showing signs of aging whilst the commercial manifestations roar ahead. We know my body is an example of a self-organization system with a limit to growth. Melbourne is not. It will continue to grow so long as there is sufficient natural bounty to sustain this growth
2719
. It is a predator that will continue to be a parasite so long as it can get the necessary sustenance from the prey
2720
. Cities are a plague on the ecosystem
2721
.
New York is a much bigger predator but it does have some inherent advantages
2723
. The much higher population density forces its populace to avoid the addiction to the car and use the effective rapid transit. Its towering buildings are more energy efficient by necessity rather than design. But it is still a predator as most of the necessary goods and many services have to be imported and its wastes exported
2724
. This means that its associated energy usage is high. It has attracted many smart people who have built up intangibles like financial services but are avid consumers of stuff as well as needs
2725
. It is likely that for all its advantages of a high population density, it is more vulnerable than Melbourne to the natural bounty decline 2726 .
Let us look ahead. Suppose a future Victorian government discarded the current
Melbourne 2030 Plan
2728
and instituted a Department of Ecological Accounting
(DEA) 2729 charged with estimating the annual realistic eco cost of all activities contributing to the functioning of Melbourne, classified by the three components
2730
and including the costs of imports of resources and exports
2731
of wastes and the costs of the resources used in imported goods and services. This would be balanced against the worth
170

of structures built, the goods produced and the services provided
2732
in the city over the year. The city has essentially no natural resources that can be utilized so industrial energy, food, water and other materials
2733
are all imported. In addition, it exports its toxic wastes
2734
. Almost all its eco costs therefore are borne by other regions. It is totally dependent on these other regions. There is widespread recognition that it is a predator 2735 .
The people of Melbourne use their skills and some of the imported resources to provide goods and services 2736 , mostly used in the city and including some for maintenance 2737 .
The annual DEA report to government would indicate the high real eco cost for the past year, the GDD
2738
, and the worth of the goods and services produced
2739
. This contrasts with the present system that accounts for GDP
2740
only. The eco costs are currently largely ignored. An increase in the percentage rate of GDD would put pressure on government, business and the community to ecologize
2741
. GDD growth would be commonly regarded as a bad. The consumption of ‘stuff’ would drop together with those jobs, sales promotion and marketing
2742
, that encourage consumption. Specialization would be discouraged by the increasing aim for self-sufficiency. The car culture
2743 would be seen to be an unsustainable disease.
The retreat from urbanization
2744
would be strengthened
2745
. It could be the interesting situation where the economy grows, as measured by a realistic GDP
2746
, while the eco cost for the year, GDD, declines. That would be a community achievement to be proud of. It would mean that more worthwhile services are being provided while the basic goods are being produced at lower eco cost. It would show how smart we can be.
It is appropriate to consolidate our findings from this Mind game by considering the formulation of a hypothetical global GDD.
171

It would consist of the following elements of:
 the usage of the wide range of exhaustible raw materials, including the fossil
 fuels, uranium and metals. The amounts used would have to be weighted by a unit cost
2748
that reflects an estimate of the remaining extractable quantity the decline of the wide range of natural resources, including fertile soil
2749
, aquifer and stored water, forests, etc. The amounts used would have to be weighted according to how replenishable they are.
 decline of natural services like the flow of rivers, pollination by bees, the contribution of snow melt to water supply, etc weighted according to their estimated impact on the economy

 degradation of geodiversity, such as by mountain top coal mining attrition of
biodiversity attributable to industrial operations or urban
development

 impact on species, including human, health influence of climate change on ecological operations
2750
The figures would be rough estimates only but still clearly better guidance than the existing mechanism. These figures would provide the basis for the estimation of the remaining natural bounty.
The figures for specific regions, like Australia, could likewise be estimated although the respective weightings could differ appreciably.
Have you enjoyed that fanciful Mind Game? Back now to contemplation of the reality. The fantasia is over. The current operation of Melbourne can be likened to the operation of my body when I was a teenager and still growing. I needed a supply of air, food (which includes energy) and water. I produced material and heat wastes. I was and still am a predator in that I am totally dependent on nature for my continuing operation. I can, however, confidentially expect the necessary supplies. Melbourne, likewise, is a predator. It is deemed to provide some arguable value in the operations of the Australian community. But this comes at a tremendous un-repayable eco cost. Adoption of the GDD and a more realistic GDP could be likened to Melbourne reaching maturity and facing its mortality and conducting its affairs accordingly. It would be equivalent to recognizing
172

that its entropic growth is irreversible and we need to be cleverer to offset this lessening of the ecosystem support capability.
There is some recognition of the predicament of urbanization. For example,
Register
2754
writes on how future cities could be made less predatory
2755
. He does not, however, cover how specialization can be reversed so resource usage is focused on the basics
2756
. Such proposals will have to be weighed up realistically taking into account the eco cost of transforming cities like Melbourne. It is extremely doubtful whether the mega cities 2757 can be so transformed painlessly.
Contrast Melbourne to the Goulburn Valley region. Its lush orchards supply
Melbourne and elsewhere with a variety of fruits. The eco cost of its imports of fuels, irrigation water
2759
, electricity and other goods is appreciably less than the eco costs of its exports. It uses the fertile soil, adequate rainfall (generally to date) and sunny clime
2760
to produce the fruit with the skill of the orchardists increasing the real worth. It is probably one of those rare regions, productive rather than parasitic. The region is a prey, not a predator. But it still suffers from emigration of the young to the city for higher paying, but less worthwhile
2761
, jobs.
There is growing concern that most of the sewerage from Melbourne is being sent out to sea at Gunnamatta after only minimal treatment
2763
. This is now being regarded as a waste of potentially useful water and nutrients and the cause of pollution
2764
. This nutrient flow situation bears comparison with what an ongoing scientific study is showing about natural processes. Some scientists have been monitoring the salmon catching habits of bears
2765
. This is an intriguing article but the gist of it is that the fully-grown salmon return to their birth places 2766 to spawn with a heavy load of nutrients they have extracted during their lives in the ocean. The partial consumption of many of these salmon by the bears means these nutrients are scattered away from the rivers. The rivers, of course, wash some of the nutrients back into the ocean. So the nutrients are naturally cycled as they play out their roles in a variety of living organisms. This is in contrast with the irreversible flow of nutrients down the Melbourne sewerage system 2767 . This is just one example of how we ignore nature’s wonders at our ultimate cost 2768
.
Rain and snow spasmodically supply fresh water at markedly varying rates. A natural water distribution system has evolved in Gaia. Mountains, lakes, rivers
2770
and
173

aquifers play such an important part in water distribution that the location of many communities has been based on this fact. Imagine what our civilization would be like without the Nile
2771
, Ganges
2772
, Indus
2773
, Yellow
2774
, Amazon
2775
, Murray
2776
, Tigris,
Euphrates, Rhine, Colorado, Mississippi, Mekong
2777
, Yangtze
2778
, Danube, Elbe
2779
and
Thames Rivers. We have done our best by damming them 2780 or using them as sewers or for other purposes without sufficient thought for the consequences
2781
. The lakes have suffered too 2782 . The Great Lakes 2783 , Lake Victoria 2784 , Lake Titiaca, Lake
Tanganyika 2785 , Lake Eyre (typically Australian, dry most of the time) are just some of the better-known ones that play a vital role in many ecosystems. Many of them have been damaged by human activities. These degradations have all been irreversible processes.
That does not mean that the damage cannot be partially remedied. But it does mean that the remedial
2786
process comes at an appreciable eco cost. Our disruption of this geodiversity has increased global entropy. Clearing up the existing mess will increase it further. Mind you, that would be a saner move that building more freeways at a similar eco cost! Climate change is making these problems even worse!
The Artesian Basin is a gigantic aquifer covering a large part of Australia 2788 . It enables a degree of life in an otherwise arid region having a very low rainfall 2789 .
Tropical downpours of rain replenish the aquifer in the north east of the country. This water slowly seeps down to the southwest. Doubtless there are geologists who understand the nature of the underlying rock and so how this process works. We do know that it is an irreversible natural process that is part of the hydrological cycle. It did not contribute materially to the entropy of Gaia as it was inherently cyclic. The draw off of some of this water means that it is now contributing to entropic growth, the potential of the water in the aquifer is decreasing. We know that it is there and can be a source of water for many types of living organisms. Humans have used it for their purposes for well over a hundred years. Many thousands of bores have been sunk
2790
to extract some of the water for irrigation, watering of stock and for some industrial
2791
and household use
2792
. It provides a valuable service in the eyes of the farmers and graziers. It is a slowly replenishing but irreversible process. I expect that its replenishment rate was in balance for thousands of years before modern society tapped into it
2793
. There is concern that despite resource management for the past century the water level is dropping appreciably. Consequently,
174

its potential to supply water is dropping. The entropy of the Basin is increasing. That is, again, that portion of the natural capital is being drawn down rapidly. Doubtless there are many in the cities who will argue that we do not need to worry about that because the
Basin will continue to meet demand s well into the future. They will continue to close
their ears to the graziers that bemoan how their bores no longer reach the water as the level drops. The process of extracting water from the basin to serve our purposes is no different in principle from obtaining electricity from coal. They both draw down on the natural capital to temporarily provide services valued by the community. Unfortunately we do not consider the ratio between eco cost and this perceived value
2794
. The use of the waters from the Great Artesian Basin is just one example of a global predicament that is causing increasing concern amongst some of the informed
2795
.
We have considered how nature recycles water. We have discussed the geodiversity of natural mechanisms that supply fresh water. These processes meet only some of the expanding needs of society. Civilizations have found the need to install supplementary water catchments and distribution systems to meet agricultural, industrial and urban living requirements. The installation and maintenance of these systems are lifed processes that provide material, water, essential to the well being of the population and to the growth
2797
of crops, so the food
2798
supply to that population. Water usage is necessary for the production of the needed and wanted goods for the population. The water supply systems provide a transient degree of order to communities, particularly cities, but at an appreciable eco cost that is largely ignored
2799
until it reaches almost intractable proportions
2800
. That is, they are analogous to the coal-fired power stations.
They are another element in the web of infrastructure that is the Body of civilization, but a very crucial one as adequate water is essential to human well being
2801
. There is increasing concern in many regions about the adequacy of the installed water systems in meeting developing requirements due largely to population increases in urban areas 2802 .
However, these needs cannot be eased at the cost of irrigation without affecting food supply 2803 . The essential point is that upgrading this infrastructure requires the use of limited resources
2804
. In a rational civilization, the worth of upgrading this element of the infrastructure would be weighed against the worth of using these resources for other purposes. Unfortunately, money often distorts these valuations
2805
. It often causes
175

unnecessary entropic growth
2806
. Maintenance and upgrading of water supply facilities is an essential component in the draw down of the remaining natural bounty.
A recent article on the sewage systems in U.S. cities was illustrative of the nature of that maintenance predicament
2808
. Most of these systems are old and worn
2809
. There is an urgent need for repair if a major breakdown, so a catastrophic health problem, is to be avoided
2810
. These repairs will require the use of resources just as they are getting scarce, so increasing their ongoing eco costs. The worth, however, seems to be clear-cut. Yet procrastination prevails because other measures are higher on the financial priority list
2811
.
There is appreciable understanding amongst specialist scientists about how fertile soil has developed naturally over long periods. Time and microorganisms play a major role in the chemistry. Volcanic eruptions have also played a part in some regions. We do not need that deep understanding to know that it is another irreversible process. To use the analogy, it is one of the natural mechanisms that have increased ecosystem order.
That is, the natural increase in fertility contributed to the evolutionary decrease in global entropy over a long period, before human activities interposed
2813
.
It is, however, an unfortunate fact that the appreciation of the frailty of fertility
2815 is not common amongst modern users of soil
2816
, which all too often are agribusinesses with more expertise in financial management
2817
. Many small farmers in some regions have had this understanding passed down to them. But the use of soil is now dominated, particularly in the developed countries, by large-scale monoculture
2818
. There are exceptions. Brazil has shown how wise use of organic methods has enabled the harvesting of large amounts of sugar cane without drastically harming fertility 2819 . On the other hand, a CSIRO study
2820
has established how inappropriate European style farming has decimated soil fertility in Australia 2821 . This is another example of a major irreversible process instituted by humans that is producing disorder. That is, it is contributing significantly to global entropy growth. It is now happening so rapidly
2822 that it is swamping the evolutionary entropy decrease due to natural fertilization under the urgings of insolation. The irony is that decreasing soil fertility is being hidden to a large degree by increasing use of the declining supply of chemical fertilizers. One
176

element of the depreciating natural capital is being offset by increasing the rate of another element.
Agriculture has had a serious impact on soil fertility
2824
. The so-called (chemical)
‘fertilizers’ promote plant growth 2825
but can degrade the fertility. That is not its only bad effect. It has produced a lot of pollution 2826 . Nitrogen 2827 has contaminated waters and led to dead zones
2828
in many regions, including the Gulf of Mexico
2829
and the Baltic Sea.
The Green Revolution has increased order temporarily in the sense that it has allowed a great increase in food production but at the expense of a heavy reliance on using up the limited supplies of groundwater, crude oil and natural gas and a decrease in soil fertility
2830
. The localized temporary increase in productivity, so order is more than offset by the associated increase in global entropy due to this draw down of the natural capital and damage to the environment
2831
. I expect that there are very few who realize that the abundant food
2832
supply is inherently only temporary
2833
because of the irreversible decline in soil fertility, arable land availability
2834
and aquifer and irrigation
2835
water
2836 together with the declining availability of oil and natural gas to subsidize food production, distribution and storage. The surge in biofuel
2837
production is also having an impact
2838
on the demise of cheap food
2839
. I expect some believe there is a conspiracy afoot
2840
. Climate change
2841
appears to be in league with the other factors with both in opportune drought
2842
and floods
2843
seriously depleting food production in recent years
2844
. IPCC expects climate change to reduce food production in tropical regions.
Oil and natural gas consumption has facilitated the Green Revolution, the vast increase in food production that has enabled the rapid increase in global population
2846
.
That is a well-recognized fact. Oil and natural gas are consumed in all aspects of food supply from tilling
2847
, fertilizing
2848
, pesticides
2849
, herbicides
2850
, harvesting, storage and transportation (often over long distances 2851 ). Many of the elite, particularly the firms that have made money from it, have lauded its contribution to economic growth 2852 . It is derided by the few who see modern agriculture as being a means of converting oil to food 2853 . They see how dependent modern food production, distribution and storage are on the continuing availability of the fossil fuels. Surprisingly, most of these informed people do not appreciate the impact of declining groundwater on the future of agriculture.
We look at it from a different perspective here. Basically food production is a natural
177

replenishable process driven by insolation. It is helped to a degree
2854
, in some circumstances, by human knowledge
2855
. Unfortunately, this natural food production continues to occur to a very limited extent. Most methods of food production are now irreversible as they depend on a draw down of groundwater, oil and gas and result in the deterioration of soil fertility. These methods even lead to salination or desertification 2856 in many regions
2857
. The modern food production process, consequently, contributes significantly to entropic growth 2858 . It will inevitably slow down 2859 as the availability of the fossil fuels, soil fertility and arable land together with irrigation 2860 and aquifer water decline. It is quite likely that climate change
2861
will also have a deleterious impact in some regions, particularly in the tropics
2862
. The consequences are likely to be really dire.
People, and livestock, like to eat! Sustainable methods of farming will have to be largely re-learnt so that part of this need can be met
2863
.
The Green Revolution has provided many benefits
2865
, widely acclaimed by the providers, and appreciated by those that are well fed. It has enabled many more to enjoy a variegated diet
2866
. It has, however, contributed, with the economic growth paradigm, to the greatest predicament facing society, over population
2867
. It has also spawned a host of other predicaments
2868
, including the demise of many traditional farming methods
2869
.
The Green Revolution has also spawned the fast food industry in many countries.
This has resulted in a range of predicaments, including obesity and diabetes. It is now showing signs of rapid diminishment for a variety of reasons
2871
. So the predicament of feeding the large population grows, particularly amongst the poor in Africa, Asia and
Latin America
2872
.
It is ironical that Paul Ehrlich’s book ‘the Population bomb’ was so lampooned forty years ago that very few addressed the fact that the Green Revolution was inherently transitory in nature. So now population has overshot without this predicament having been seriously addressed.
De-forestation
2875
is another example of where our activities have perturbed a natural replenishing system. It is generally done for a reason but these are very often of very doubtful worth
2876
. Logging of old growth
2877
forests in Tasmania to produce junk mail is one extreme example
2878
. Deforestation in Malaysia so that palm oil can be produced to provide biofuels
2879
in Europe is very questionable
2880
! It is comparable with
178

cutting down some of the Amazon rain forest to grow soya beans to feed cattle in
Europe
2881
. De-forestation
2882
also impacts deleteriously on carbon dioxide emissions, so climate change
2883
. Some argue that de-forestation is reversible. They cite what happened in Europe and northeast U.S. in previous centuries. That argument does not stand up to careful scrutiny of what is practical now. Reforestation is a sensible move but it will only marginally affect
2884
the irreversible impact of the de-forestation that has occurred and continues to occur 2885 . I venture to say that this de-forestation process should be more widely recognized as an example of how human activities have disrupted the natural checks and balances that had evolved
2886
.
There is ample evidence that ocean fisheries
2888
are being devastated rapidly
2889
.
Big fish stocks are way down globally while there are numerous examples of regions where specific species have almost disappeared
2890
. Over fishing
2891
is deemed to be the major cause although dead zones
2892
and climate change
2893
are possibly having appreciable influence
2894
. For example, phytoplankton are not as numerous as they used to be and this has an effect up the food chain including whales. There is good reason to believe that this decline is an irreversible process. There have been programs to limit fishing that have seen stocks restored but these should not be regarded as solving the problem. They are just palliative treatments. Often, it is more a case of transferring the predicament. The decline in fish stocks is being combated by building up the capabilities of the fishing
2895
fleets at appreciable eco cost. Peak oil is likely to have a devastating effect overall but could ameliorate over fishing. Ocean fishing is like a boil on the Body of civilization. It is inflamed and growing rapidly. It could break at any time, with devastating impact on the food balance of countless millions in vulnerable communities.
The problem is being accentuated in lakes
2896
. Aquaculture is providing some fish but that innovative procedure comes at appreciable eco cost so is more like another palliative treatment. The holistic view of fishing is that the order that evolved naturally is being dissipated by human activities. The natural replenishment process has been disrupted.
That is, the associated entropy is increasing. In fact, entropic growth of fishing could well have peaked. Remedial
2897
and mitigation actions
2898
are becoming more eco costly. It is just another element in the rapid increase of global entropy due to human actions.
179

Society is a natural resource that has a self-organization capability
2900
. One major manifestation of this has been specialization, which has resulted in urbanization and the explosive growth of cities. Industrialization has fostered these trends even though they started millennia ago after the onset of the Agricultural Revolution. Specialization appears to be a trend only so long as there is sufficient natural bounty for sustenance purposes so the surplus can be used in extraneous activities
2901
. It has been a feature amongst the developed and developing countries, mainly because cheap energy has permitted this luxury. Convergence is likely to occur as a matter of necessity as power down
2902
gets under way
2903
. Non-producers will become an endangered species
2904
!
Coal and iron ore mining, the use of aquifers, ocean fishing and agriculture are typical examples of how humans use natural resources, often without appreciating the consequences. They value the goods and services provided but do not weigh up the eco cost
2906
. There is no mechanism to account for the draw down of natural capital, so it is ignored. There is no mechanism to account for the damage done to the environment by the toxic wastes produced, so it is largely ignored
2907
. There is no mechanism to account for the corruption of natural diversity, so it is largely ignored. How can market forces
2908 properly guide development when major costs are ignored?
The operation of civilization is heavily dependent on the aggregated use of these types of systems. It is ironical that the developed countries are the ones most dependent on these temporary synthetic constructs. They value the capability that has been installed and the human cleverness behind it. But the eco costs are largely ignored. And they do not yet realize that they have the most to lose. The entropy of the Body of these communities is high. They still have the delusion that they will be leaving a beneficial legacy! Money will lose its value as the communities strive to cope with the growing predicaments with a declining natural bounty.
The examples above of synthetic, human devised and made, systems have only some features they share with living organisms
2911
. They have finite lives but the reproduction process enables the dying examples to be replaced 2912 . In fact, there is a proliferation of power stations as well as of humans. There are, however, fundamental differences. The synthetic systems are fed by exhaustible natural resources and excrete wastes
2913
that significantly disrupt natural operations in the environment. They often
180

cause environmental damage. The lives of the synthetic systems come at an appreciable eco cost while those of the natural systems generally come at a small or negligible eco cost
2914
. The synthetic systems have, consequently, contributed appreciably to the rapid growth of global entropy
2915
in recent times
2916
. The natural systems, on the other hand, have had little ecological impact.
Ecological succession studies have provided some understanding of how natural ecological systems respond to disruptions (such as earthquakes or forest fires) 2918 by trending towards the climax (essentially equivalent to equilibrium) 2919 . That is, there is a natural tendency to restore balance. We know from historical records over millennia that this almost invariably occurs so can be summed up by these two Laws of
Thermodynamics. This self-regulation sustainable mechanism is in stark contrast to what industrialization has instigated. For example, Tungatinah power station uses water from the Derwent River to generate electricity for Tasmanian industries and homes. Its construction in the 1950s entailed an appreciable draw down of natural resources and disruption to the river flow and it has had to be maintained during its operational lifetime.
It provides power that aids the economy but at an unappreciated small contribution to entropic growth. The critical point is that these contributions by synthetic systems are all intrinsically additive, in contrast to the compensation of the natural systems. It means that the ability of Tasmanian society to adapt its operations to the decreasing natural bounty has, as elsewhere, been degraded by providing this power, regardless of what it is used for.
These examples serve to establish the fundamental point that the accumulation of human knowledge and the associated technological development has enabled the use of natural resources to build the temporary infrastructure of the Body civilization and to provide the goods and services 2921 it uses, without understanding all the consequences.
Many of them are deleterious. These capabilities have build up of the Body of civilization but degradation of Gaia pays the real, material price
2922
. This build up and consumption is a divestment of the ecosystem. It is based on a draw down of the natural bounty for the transient worth of the goods, services and infrastructure. It has caused a corruption of the natural diversity. It carries a commitment to use resources to maintain the infrastructure.
It carries the promise of generation of wastes that will continue to devastate the
181

ecosystem
2923
. That is, the temporary build up of the Body comes from the greater irreversible
2924
degradation of Gaia. Global entropy is increasing rapidly due to this human malfeasance.
The build up of the Body of civilization can be regarded as a positive needing continuing support, partly to offset the aging process. This build up comes at the cost of the continuing greater degradation of Gaia
2926
, a one-off negative outcome. The
Consequence Axiom is a formalization of the fact that the net result is decimation of the
ecosystem 2927 . It is a losing game 2928 while the Mind thinks they are playing a winning game, economic growth
2929
!
There are many fundamental predicaments
2931
comprising the World’s
Predicaments
29322933
. Firstly society has taken for granted for millennia that they have a right to use up natural resources without due redress
2934
. That mistake has been exacerbated tremendously in recent times with the exuberant use of the exhaustible fossil fuels
2935
and the consequential synthetic food production
2936
, population explosion, pollution of land, sea and air together with causing climate change
2937
. That has been a terrible blunder as it has resulted in extracting a vast amount of carbon from geological stores and burning it in air, so putting huge amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and the oceans. This is causing an irreversibly rapid climate change. That is one of the immutable duality
2938
predicaments that we can do little about
2939
. Planting more trees will not make a noticeable difference. Reducing the rates of these emissions will only slow climate change down but acidification of the oceans will continue. The operation of civilization is based on using industrial energy at high rates, so producing pollutants and GHG emissions at a high rate and it will not be able to change this deviant behavior rapidly.
The deleterious consequences of using fossil fuels to provide industrial energy, the production of greenhouse gases that are affecting the climate is the prime example of a general principle. That is, all artificial processes employed by industry entail the input of exhaustible natural resources and the output of irreconcilable wastes.
2941 They also generally entail disruption of natural operations of the environment. These are the three inevitable components of the eco cost of the process. Society has yet to learn how to cope
182

with this predicament. The best that can be expected is an improvement in making use of the remaining natural capital and making better use of the income.
This highlights a major predicament in the operation of civilization. It changes these operations so rapidly that there is not time for a reasonable degree of selforganizing and self-regulation at a holistic level. It causes many out of balance operations that have to be responded to – at great cost. It is another example of where society believes it can emulate natural evolution at an unrealistic rate.
We now need a means to realistically deal 2943 with this draw down of the natural capital in eco cost accounting
2944
. Financial costs will then have to more realistically reflect these eco costs. There is growing recognition the oil is too financially cheap in some regions
2945
for long term good. This has resulted in its wasteful use and is precipitating a supply crisis and desperate moves by the rich to get a share of what remains
2946
and to put in place alternative suppliers of industrial energy
2947
. There will be a gradual responsive move in the eco cost of exhaustible resources
2948
. That, however, does not reconcile the fact that a society should really pay a realistic price for the right to use up exhaustible resources and other elements of natural bounty capital at a high rate now
2949
, so that they are no longer needlessly depriving future generations. This is a moral
2950
and ethical question but needs to be based on understanding of the reality of what is happening. It is ironical that business looks ahead in deciding the policies most likely to lead to profits, yet society does not look ahead
2951
as to what measures are most worthwhile
2952
use of the remaining natural bounty capital
2953
. The implementation of a rational eco cost, so financial cost, for this right is one predicament for which a solution should be sort even though most of the damage has already been done 2954 . Power growth
2955
is unintentionally contributing to ecocide
2956
.
It is ironical that civilization has got up such a full head of steam that it will be very difficult to deliberately slow down 2958 . There will be a major commitment to utilize some of the remaining natural capital for the operation and maintenance of existing industrial capital 2959
. There will be a continuing demand for industrial energy even as
there is good reason to reduce the use of fossil fuels
2960
. There will be a tug-o-war between these natural forces with money being an impotent onlooker!
183

The above highlights a major mental predicament
2962
, how to get the powerful to think about the realities of the operation of civilization
2963
rather than in terms of an abstraction, money
2964
. They need to understand the implications of the Dependence on
Nature Law. They need to appreciate that natural bounty capital is depreciating rapidly, largely at their insistence. This has come about because the Body of civilization is based on using synthetic lifed systems
2965
whereas Gaia basically operates on cyclic and complementary systems. The power of money enables the construction of many artifices that waste natural bounty simply to make more money for the promoters while temporarily providing pleasure for a few
2966
. The argument can be made that money will continue to be a useful mechanism for the operations of society once circumstances ensure that it more accurately values the real, including eco, costs of production
2967
. That could well prove to be the case but the transition to sound monetary value would require a major change in the mindset of those who gain the most from the current economic paradigm. Some businesses are adapting to the changing circumstances by adopting disaster capitalism which is realistic gathering of opportunity
2968
but hardly beneficial to the community at large. Progressive thinkers recognized this predicament decades ago and ecological economics then provided a sounder mechanism, which was then ignored by those in control because the economics of the developed countries were not being constrained by the eco system
2969
. The same type of rejection has happened to biophysical economics
2970
.
The powerful elite has a vested interest in business as usual, largely because of their myopic vision. It is most likely that smart bourgeois will lead the way in the Earthly
Revolution in rising to the challenge of ameliorating the decline of the Body. They will appreciate that the scarcity of natural bounty capital will ensure that natural laws largely control what happens. They will appreciate their decisions can only ease the power down slightly 2972 .
Nevertheless, the rich have the leverage of their money backed by social and infrastructure operations to avoid most of the impact of the depreciation of natural capital. Thus the irony is that the impact of reality will tend to widen the gap between the rich and the poor
2974
. This predicament applies to all levels of communities. The developed countries have created an insurmountable gap
2975
. This predicament is bound
184

to exacerbate societal disharmony. It can only be moderated by positive egalitarianism, if that can emerge under the tutelage of the altruistic informed using the vastly improved means of communication.
There are circumstances where market forces do extend the limits of recoverable natural resources. For example, increasing prices for the raw material often make the opening up of mines economically viable. This increases the natural bounty capital. It also supports the common belief (but delusion) in a sustainable future economy. It prolongs the illusion of continuing ability of society to cope and ignore the reality that the natural bounty capital is being irrevocably drawn down.
One of the major predicaments is that there has been the delusion about economic growth for so long that the natural bounty capital has become seriously depreciated.
There is now much less immutable supply available to meet future intangible demand s
for operation and maintenance of the Body. This predicament can only become more horrendous as time goes by even if the Earthly Revolution produces some wise measures.
There is no existing procedure
2979
to take account of what will happen in the future in view of decisions made now about constructing buildings, infrastructure, plant, equipment and vehicles. The construction of a highway now carries with it the need to use natural resources in the future to maintain and repair it. We know this infrastructure will deteriorate with use
2980
. Its order will decrease. That is an irreversible process that can only be eased by using other natural resources for maintenance and, if desirable in the circumstances, replacement. That is, there is a commitment to use more resources, including non-replenishing ones, in the future implicitly embedded in the decision to construct the highway. There is a tremendous commitment to maintain cities 2981 . There is an implied eco cost
2982
. There is no mechanism using this rational approach
2983
. Society is going to have to face the dilemma of a commitment to use natural bounty at a high rate for this maintenance and repair 2984 when the capability is declining rapidly as the entropy is high. This predicament will be exacerbated so long as growth of the Body continues 2985 . Continuing population and consumption increases will just make this predicament worse
2986
.
Past industrial installations have unexpectedly modified
biodiversity and
geodiversity deleteriously
2988
in many cases
2989
. Natural mechanisms have had a limited
185

capability to cope with these misdemeanors
2990
. There is a need to divert natural resources away from normal operations to enable remedial
2991
action when the unrepayable eco cost is judged to be worthwhile
2992
. Current programs to ease species extinctions
2993
are but a small step in the right direction
2994
. Establishment of wildlife corridors will slow the biodiversity devastation down slightly 2995 . Installation of advanced technology to replace outmoded concepts may not be worthwhile because of the eco cost entailed in replacing the systems 2996 .
There is emerging concern about the consequences of some of the modifications to geodiversity carried out in developing industrial systems. The possibility of dams collapsing in China as the result of the recent eartquake is one example of the unintended consequences of modifying the environment. There is a major global predicament in deciding what remedial action should be carried out as the available natural capital becomes scarce
2998
.
A crucial example of this lack of self-regulation in the operation of civilization is the treatment of industrial and human waste material. The current sewerage and waste disposal systems entail the use of copious amounts of valuable water to contaminate lakes, rivers and seas with toxic wastes
2999
and to remove valuable nutrients from the soil.
A good case can be made for using some of the remaining natural bounty to remedy this situation by more appropriate measures
3000
. The predicament is that such a measure would put a major strain on the natural bounty available to many communities while the beneficial effect on human health would exacerbate the population predicament.
Civilization has traditionally fostered social diversity with reinforcing feedback mechanisms tending to grow the range from those unable to obtain the basics to those rich people who presume the right to devastate the ecosystem to their heart’s content 3002 while making no real contribution to the basic operation of the community 3003 . Society has built up a material standard of living by using cheap industrial energy 3004 in processes that focus on personal comfort, transportation and self-gratification – for some. But that has been accentuated by using cheap labor 3005 . There is an urgent need for those in an advantageous position because of this mechanism to accept the consequential moral responsibility to alleviate the impact of their eco cost
3006
. Unfortunately, there is very
186

little sign of that happening
3007
. In fact, the contrary is still growing rapidly in many communities
3008
.
The cultural values that used to be the foundations of so many communities have been largely dissipated in urbanization in pursuit of money to purchase stuff. This loss of values has degraded human self-esteem. It is a predicament that needs to be tackled to ease the inevitable power down. There needs to be a trend towards relocalization, the sense of community, doing rather than having, less work for financial rewards to buy stuff so there is more time and energy for family, friends and pleasing activities. The
Earthly Revolution could well contribute appreciably to that objective.
Easing the necessary power down will doubtless entail the efforts of many in society
3011
. However, there is good reason to try to maintain as many of the good cultural features of society as possible. It will be a major predicament to extract these two worthwhile objectives from the hype and money that currently drives consumptive society.
This social diversity has gone hand in hand with specialization. The reducing availability of industrial energy will apply pressure on those careers fostering consumerism and intellectual (including financial) games but there will most likely still be a need to actively divert workers
3013
into what are presently regarded as mundane jobs
3014
. The foundations of society have to be maintained
3015
for the edifice to continue to build up. It will be quite a predicament to establish a reasonable balance between what is necessary
3016
and what is desirable as the available natural bounty becomes scarcer
3017
.
This balance will vary tremendously from community to community.
The educational system has gone hand in hand with social diversity so that the young are taught much that is in conflict with the reality of civilization living with what natural bounty is available. Widespread appreciation that civilization is a short-lived parasite is essential. The delusion that Homo sapiens are in control has to be caste aside.
A re-orientation of the educational system, particularly amongst the spoilt society, will be a formidable but essential task.
The rise and fall of a number of civilizations have been examined
3020
. The unsustainable use of the available natural resources has been seen to be a major contributing factor to their demise. These discussions have been couched in various terms
187

but they are all consistent with the view expressed here in terms of entropy, the tendency to go from order to disorder. There are clear signs that entrepreneurs are seeking to take advantages of cracks in this complex society
3021
. This is an RFM as measures to counter these efforts just add to the complexity.
A major predicament is that there are many millions who believe that they have a right to a high standard of living. This is a standard of living that the ecosystem cannot possibly sustain as it draws down on the exhaustible natural capital at a ridiculous rate.
They have to learn that they should be responsible for contributing their fair share to worthwhile community operations in order to earn the right to consume - less. They have to accept that they are inherently parasites. Until they do, they will the prey of financial wizards
3023
!
There is a need to reduce consumption as this will reduce the rate of draw down of the natural bounty. More realistic pricing of goods and services would contribute to that objective but have the dual consequences of tending to deprive the poor of needs while having little impact on the rich. This is a major predicament. There has to be some means of positively encouraging fairer sharing of the remaining natural bounty
3025
.
This predicament is bound to be worse in the undeveloped countries where there is little scope to reduce the rate of draw down of the small remaining natural bounty. This is bound to lead to the escalation of conflict
3027
.
There are many millions of knowledgeable people who can take the provision of sustenance for granted so have appreciable personal energy
3029
that needs an outlet. There is a major predicament in channeling this energy into worthwhile activities
3030
. There will
be forces, including the Greater Depression that will foster this re-direction. The Earthly
Revolution
3031
could well provide a major motivation
3032
to be realistic. Society has to learn to live frugally 3033 on the remaining natural bounty 3034 . It has to embrace a diet to ease senescence of the Body.
Most communities have governance that believes in the economic growth paradigm but are ignorant of the associated acceleration of entropic growth 3036 of the foundations
3037
. These governments encourage population growth and tend to encourage business to also grow. That is, the powerful are doing their utmost to encourage increasing rate of natural bounty draw down
3038
, so societal suicide as well as ecocide
3039
.
188

This predicament has to be overcome to aid the power down. These people are in a position to have a major influence on what are worthwhile uses of what is left of the natural bounty. However, they have the inherent problem that they are likely to lose power if they propose measures that are unpopular
3040
. The wising up of many informed people cannot really accomplish a lot unless the community leadership also heads down that path. More realistic education can encourage the young
3041
to embrace the Earthly
Revolution but positive measures will be necessary to change the mindset of those in power. That will be difficult because they will be largely immune 3042 to the reality of the decline
3043
.
Business is competitive. They aim to make a financial profit and to grow.
Corporations compete to produce goods and services
3045
, so, generally irresponsibly, to draw down on the natural bounty unnecessarily. They are essentially competing to unknowingly contribute to the demise of the Body of civilization and the desecration of
Gaia
3046
. This is a major predicament to be faced to ease the power down. It is a seemingly impossible task to harness the power of business to only draw down on the natural bounty for purposes worthwhile to the community at large.
The powerful in government and business believe in the continuing availability
3048
of the vast amounts of industrial energy that drives the body of civilization
3049
. They believe technology will provide substitutes where scarcity may emerge
3050
. The predicament is to make these ‘leaders’ pull their heads out of the sand and recognize the reality that the era of cheap energy is over for good
3051
. Worthwhile use of a reduced supply of industrial energy would do much to ease the necessary power down whilst also mitigating climate change 3052 .
The fact, however, is that industrial civilization is addicted to using this cheap energy so will have to maintain a reasonable supply to avoid a collapse rather than a power down 3054 . This is a major predicament as the easy oil has already been extracted so future sources will come only at an increasing rate of draw down of the natural bounty 3055 .
There is a recognized need to replace the use of fossil fuel energy by a range of methods than can provide ‘renewable’ energy. This need stems from emerging appreciation of what fossil fuel combustion is doing to the climate. The declining
189

availability of the fossil fuels will, of course, have a significant impact. This replacement process entails the diversion of appreciable natural bounty
3057
from other purposes, such as the normal operation of the Body of civilization, including synthetic food production.
It is extremely doubtful whether much can be achieved in this regard
3058
.
The industrialized countries have used this cheap energy to build up their capability
3060
much more than the developing and undeveloped countries. This means that they tend to have the essential basic structures of modern society and the organizations to run them. This is reflected in their financial wealth. This means that they have the leverage to gain more than their fair share of the remaining global natural bounty capital
3061
. This RFM means that a very large section of society faces a major predicament in preventing catabolic collapse as the remaining natural bounty declines while a small section carries on with its ravaging hardly diminished.
It is ironical that the rising price of oil is providing fiscal power
3063
to the producing countries that they are now using for investment in the industrialized countries that have preyed on their oil resources in the past, and continue to do so but by paying the higher price. This transfer of fiscal power
3064
is, however, having little impact on the depreciation of the global natural capital but they are, in the view of some analysts, helping to stabilize the financial market
3065
.
An associated need is for a major cultural change
3067
, which can be dubbed the
Earthly Revolution. There are a few communities globally that recognize that they have to make do with the natural bounty available to them and are adapting accordingly
3068
.
However, most people have very little appreciation of what has actually happened
3069
, what has gone wrong 3070 . There needs to be a widespread awakening 3071 . The Revolution needs to spread rapidly
3072
so actions to mitigate the decline can be implemented in a timely manner 3073 . It is most likely to spread from some 3074 of the middle classes in the developed and developing countries 3075 .
Industrial civilization has been able devastate the ecosystem largely because the use of the fossil fuels has provided many with cheap energy slaves. This has levered up their personal energy to consume and encouraged urban society to be habitat robbers.
This is a physical reality. It has, however, been compounded by the rampant creation of paper money in many countries
3077 . The resultant financial ‘wealth’ has further
190

encouraged consumerism by many people and has augmented their ability to sate their lust - temporarily. This is an imaginary reality compounding the damage to the physical one. It is likely to continue even when the price for industrial energy increases appreciably
3078
. The predicament is to foster timely power down amongst the well off
3079
.
This would slow down the wasteful consumption of the natural bounty.
Many enjoy the advantages of the affluent society stemming from the exuberant use of the natural bounty 3081 . It will be a major predicament to convince them that this pillaging of the natural bounty cannot continue, as the store is getting low. Price, as ever, will be the major means of reducing the rate of draw down but that will hardly be social justice. The Earthly Revolution could foster a fairer power down. But it will be an awesome task to convince most people that the supposed progress was really degrading the life support system for their descendents. They need to be convinced that most of current society will leave a horrifying legacy.
A major predicament is to convince society
3083
that economic growth only confers temporary and unsustainable material standard of living gains on some people
3084
at the expense of irrevocable degradation of the life support system for all. This predicament requires a change in the human psyche. It needs to incorporate an ecocentric view into the general anthropogenic view. Society has to learn that the reality is entropic growth, the tendency for the Body of civilization to become more disordered combined with some disordering of Gaia. The current common belief
3085
that the high material standard of living will trickle down needs to be replaced by the understanding that the predicaments facing society will inevitably trickle up as the global natural capital irreversibly depletes.
Industrial installations have produced exacerbating wastes that have profoundly influenced operation of the ecosystem
3087
. The emission of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels is undoubtedly the major one because it has instigated climate change 3088 . But land, sea and air pollution 3089 is having a significant impact on flora and fauna
3090
health. A reduction in the rate of usage of fossil fuels is quite likely
3091
in the future 3092 but that will only, at best, slow climate change down 3093 . There is little doubt that appreciable amounts of natural resources, including fossil fuels, will have to be used to mitigate the impact of this climate change
3094
and to adapt to its consequences
3095
.
Those activities could take various forms in the different regions
3096
. Industrialized
191

regions have been the prime causative factor of climate change and have the greatest dependence on using fossil fuels to maintain their high material standard of living
3097
.
Agricultural societies are most likely to suffer from climate change
3098
and their access to the basics is threatened. An appreciable eco cost is irrevocably entailed in adaptation to and mitigation of climate change 3099 . Some predatory regions may be able to mitigate the impact by importation of natural resources or goods
3100
, whilst there are still communities they can prey on 3101 . Emigration could be beneficial 3102 if there are still communities that can cope with the additional eco cost but investment 3103 does not necessarily help.
There is little doubt that climate change is detrimentally affecting biodiversity
3105
.
This adds uncertainty to the disruptive effects of the build of civilization. It is expected to have a detrimental effect on food production, especially in tropical countries. Mitigating this disruption is a major predicament even as we become more aware
3106
of how dependent the operation of the ecosystem is on balanced biodiversity.
Climate change is beginning to get a lot of attention but it is by no means the only major impact of polluting due to industrialization. Atmospheric pollution is posing major health problems in many cities. Ground water pollution by toxic chemicals is having numerous deleterious impacts on many forms of life, including marine. The chemicals used to foster agriculture often have a serious impact on soil fertility. Attempts are being made to reduce the use of plastic bags because they do so much harm during their long life. These predicaments can only be slightly ameliorated by improved management of the causative factors.
Civilization has built up a major infrastructure, primarily in the cities, to enable its operations. Many of these will become redundant or, even worse, useless 3109 as the decline reduces need for many goods
3110
and services
3111
. This modification of the
infrastructure will place an additional demand on the natural bounty
3112 , so hastening its decline. It will be another RFM. It will place a demand for improved risk management 3113 to ease this decline.
Society has also built up arrange of services that are now regarded as indispensable, even though they are based on using exhaustible natural resources. Health care is one of that has blossomed in recent times and is doomed to a large degree of decimation
3115
while demand is increasing due to the aging population
3116
.
192

Many people are deemed to be wealthy by virtue of having financial or material assets. This is a reality in the illusory operation of current society. The material assets will continue to be worthwhile only so long as natural resources are used to maintain them. The financial assets grossly over-estimate the real worth because the real eco cost of their accumulation was not incorporated. There will be a major predicament in encouraging these wealthy people to understand that the diminution of their financial wealth by hyper-inflation is the result of the malfeasance of the economy.
Banking systems have played a major role in the development of many economies. A common view of how they work is ‘A central bank controls interest rate and the money supply, inflation. It can only produce debt, servitude and inflation. Only that central bank can later issue more money, which is required to pay off the interest that it mandated. A never-ending spiral of inflation and indebtedness results. It can only grow, never be paid off.’ This is a spurious argument based on the false usufruct delusion. It is the argument of economists that has fostered the draw down of the irreplaceable natural bounty in pursuit of economic growth. Growth of the economy is synonymous with decline of the eco system only so long as the eco system can be ravaged. Ultimately the economy must crash as it an intangible while the ecosystem is tangible material that is subject to natural laws. The bubble with undoubtedly burst with horrible consequences for many as well as devastating the structure of society. It will be a major predicament to limit the consequential hurt to the bourgeois.
This crash is becoming very likely in the near future. Central bankers and financiers are playing a weird game trying to hold up a system that is quite basically unstable because they considered them selves better able to assess the risks.
3120 .
These predicaments stem to a very large extent from the fundamental one that we have irresponsibly reproduced our kind 3121 . There are now too many humans 3122 . We have temporarily overshot partly by means of using up cheap fossil fuels to synthetically but temporarily bolster the food supply
3123
.
The major advances in hygiene and medicine 3124 have had a big impact that has only partly been offset by the consequences of pollution. There are many communities where the population is way too high for the available natural bounty, so accelerating the entropic growth with the emergence of a range of predicaments
3125
. There are also tropical regions with high populations that will
193

have to cope
3126
with the impact of climate change. Over population is a major predicament that will slowly go away, predominantly by natural means
3127
although rational approaches may help
3128
.
The rapid increase in food production in recent times has fostered the delusion
3130 that a majority of this large population can continue to be well fed. The vast number that suffer from malnutrition and starvation have little opportunity to foster the delusion.
Climate change is expected to aid declining fossil fuel supply in killing that delusion.
There is little scope for science and technology to ease this predicament 3131 . However, changes back from fossil dependent agribusiness to more sustainable methods show promise of easing this global predicament to only a small extent
3132
. Agriculture has done irreparable harm to soil fertility over millennia and that has been exacerbated by the use of fossil fuels in recent centuries
3133
.
Some of these are predicaments have existed for millennia. Others have sprouted in the past century
3135
. It is to be hoped that awakening to the present situation will encourage concerned intellectuals to come up with a means of handling them to some extent
3136
. There will be no panacea
3137
but a range of measures may ease the pain
3138
.
This remedial action will have to encompass wise use of technology
3139
to enable worthwhile substitution for existing wasteful procedures
3140
. Sound tackling of some predicaments could well ease others
3141
. However, a profound cultural change
3142
will also be necessary
3143
and that will take time and wisdom: both of these are in short
supply
3144
! This cultural change would be profoundly helped by people asking themselves ‘What right have we to use up resources that it took nature eons to produce and thereby devastate the environment with our irrevocable exacerbating wastes while we degrade the habitat of other species’. Actually, it would be more reasonable to say ‘What capability have we to replace the resources that it took nature eons to produce’. The answer to that question is ‘None’!
The major predicament is to change the attitude of people in the position to make major decisions about how society uses such natural bounty as oil. They have to learn that society cannot subdue, conquer or subjugate nature. And society can only temporarily dominate and exploit nature whilst there is sufficient remaining available natural bounty capital. Thus, domination and exploitation of nature is not sustainable.
194

This will require a remarkable change in attitude by those conditioned to subdue, conquer, subjugate, dominate and exploit the masses as well as nature!
Western countries gained an early advantage in industrialization that enabled them to prey on other regions for their natural resources. Colonialism has given way to the more subtle, but no less effective, financial preying. It is not surprising that the predators are strenuously competing for the natural resources of the prey as the decline in natural capital starts to hit. The prey countries face an insurmountable predicament
3147
in trying to boost their standard of living as their life support trickles away.
One of the major predicaments is that there is a wide range of views, even amongst the powerful, and this inhibits action. Some of the prominent views are quite unbelievably naive 3149 . There are deniers of over population, global warming and resource scarcity. This is due to a range of factors including lack of understanding of the mechanisms involved, conditioned prejudices, vested interests and conflicting views. For example, scientists in general show lack of understanding of the implications of the
Dependence on Nature Law. The written and spoken word has its limitations in conveying understanding that is compounded by the above noisy influences. The size of the this predicament can be garnered by contemplating the many sound views of what civilization has done to the ecosystem without having any real impact on the disastrous economic growth paradigm. It will take time and effort to reduce the associated uncertainties
3150
and biases sufficiently to lead to effective action
3151
. Focusing on the predicaments listed here will help this unwieldy process but not enough to lead to action that will mitigate the decline appreciably. It would require an almost unbelievable change in mindset of the many ‘informed’ people who have been indoctrinated by the fallacious economic growth paradigm
3152
. It would require a more realistic appreciation of the nature of the holistic problem to enable realistic assessment of proposed mitigation measures
3153
. Doubtless, however, there will be a growing number of earnest people rising to the challenge. They will foster the Earthly Revolution.
The Information Revolution has exacerbated this understanding predicament. The computer age has aided the communication of knowledge but has resulted in information overload 3155 . It is ironical that it is very dependent on the continuing availability of the natural resources for the construction and operation of the technology on which it is
195

based. This dependence is similar to the dependence of the operation of Mind of civilization on the health of the Body. There will be a major predicament in extracting worthwhile knowledge from this morass of information and storing it in a sustainable medium for future generations.
Society is besotted with how clever it has been in devising processes and mechanisms. The current emphasis on fields like robotics, artificial intelligence, biotechnology suggests continuing progress is sustainable despite the reality of the
Dependence on Nature Law. The reality will have a trickle up effect to gradually stifle these edifices of civilization. There will be the predicament of re-educating, re-directing this cleverness to mitigating the consequences of the fundamental fact that civilization is using up natural bounty capital.
There are many technological proposals supposed to make more worthwhile use of natural bounty capital
3158
. Realistic appraisal of these proposals is a major predicament as they are often tainted by vested interests.
The progress of civilization has been characterized by some seeming certainties clouded by many uncertainties. As pointed out earlier, many of these certainties have really been the myths that have contributed to the misdirection of civilization. It is appropriate, then, to now review, in the light of the insight gained, the certainties of what lies ahead for the Body of civilization and Gaia whilst also commenting on the uncertainties. We accept the certainty of our own mortality but that is not necessarily the fate of human society. Assuredly there will be some, albeit depleted, natural bounty income powered by insolation to support a much smaller population with at least the essentials, some energy, food and water. Some other species will also survive to foster a sustaining form of biodiversity despite climate change. Gaia is certain to continue to evolve while recovering to some extent from the devastation of industrialization. Natural bounty capital will continue to decline but at a slowing rate, so making it more difficult to allocate resources for operation as well as remediation. Population is virtually certain to decline significantly, quite possibly because of starvation in many regions. A realistic approach to the over population predicament is hampered by the sensitive nature of the issues. Plagues, fostered by all forms of globalization, could well contribute to a dieoff.
Money will continue to play a major part in the operation of society but its influence, in
196

the main, will become more focused on what is worthwhile. The Greater Depression is almost certain in the near future as the depletion of natural capital forces the diminution of wasteful consumption. Our understanding of the chaotic operation of complex systems means that we expect unexpected events to occur! Major resource wars are quite possible even though they would involve irrational waste of the material being fought for. Natural disasters are almost certain to be come more common but that gives us little indication of where and when and the nature of the worst ones. It is possible that altruistic people power 3160 will ease the power down but it is most unlikely that the powerful will assist this process while the poor will undoubtedly be the prime victims.
We really need a new age of enlightenment. The term can narrowly refer to the intellectual movement in the middle ages of The Enlightenment, which advocated reason as the primary basis of authority. It would have to be reason based on the view that society is an element of the living ecosystem. It would be a society that reasons on how it can best operate with the limited remaining natural bounty capital
3162
, for now and for the future. It would be a society that takes pride in meeting the challenge to minimize its impact on the environemnt. It would be a society that recognizes what constitutes net real wealth and the limitations on its growth. It would be a society that embraces the Earthly
Revolution with enthusiasm.
The above summarizes the global situation. The situation with respect to regions is complicated by the trade between some of them of various natural resources
3164
, either directly or indirectly in the goods and services exchanged. There has been a long history of trading natural resources between countries although the mechanism has changed materially, particularly in recent centuries. The use of force has tended to give way to greater use of money and other, dubious, tactics
3165
. Know how has also been a major factor in enabling resource poor countries to import from those that are resource rich 3166 .
The use of these weapons has been a reinforcing feedback mechanism in that the advantages held by the developed countries has given them leverage over the undeveloped countries in any exchange. The latter have paid the eco cost 3167 of much of the construction of infrastructure and consumption in the developed countries
3168
. They will also have to pay a hefty price for the climate change precipitated by the indulgence of the well off. This imbalance is accentuated by geographical factors. The undeveloped
197

countries are primarily in the tropics which is the region expected to be most seriously affected by climate change. This regional imbalance is a truly major predicament for global society. It is bound to have an accelerating impact on societal conflict
3169
unless some extraordinary measures emerge to ameliorate its impact
3170
.
Another major factor in historical unbalancing 3172 of consumption of natural resources has been migration. Rural to urban migration
3173
has been a developing feature of civilization 3174 that is reaching crisis proportions in the developing countries like
China 3175 and India 3176 . It has been exacerbated by investment 3177 from other countries fostering the growth of industries
3178
in cities. It is sustainable only so long as cheap industrial energy
3179
enables the rural community
3180
to artificially feed the urbanites
3181
, many of whom are not really productive even though they are well paid. The migration direction is bound to reverse as the urbanites find their food supply does not come from the supermarkets
3182
. But climate change could also have a major influence
3183
.
The large-scale migration from the natural resource-degraded Europe in the
Middle Ages to the resource-rich New World is just one example of regional migration.
This migration tended to restore balanced societies. It was a beneficial negative feedback mechanism. It has been followed by migration from ‘poor’ countries to ‘rich’ countries
3185
by people aiming for a better life
3186
. It is similar in effect to the urban immigration. This is increasing the unbalance. It means an increasing rate of entropy growth in these ‘rich’ countries. This could well be exacerbated 3187
by migration caused by climate change
3188
. It is a two-edged sword. It will reduce the pressure on the poor countries in making use of their remaining natural bounty but they could well be losing some of the skill they need in using this bounty wisely. On the other hand, many in the rich countries will find it difficult to accept
3189
that they need to power down in order to partially cope with the emerging problems of the Body of their civilization 3190 . They are essentially immune to the carmania and flymania diseases.
This regional variation can be illustrated by examining the situation in a number of countries. It is appropriate to examine the U.S., as it is still the largest global economy 3192 . Many believe that its current prosperity is due to capitalism 3193 yet it has been a profligate consumer of its own and the natural resources of other countries, much of it wastefully. Its wealth
3194
is largely based on having used a high proportion of the
198

copious amount of natural bounty it was endowed with
3195
. It has drawn down markedly and rapidly
3196
on its bounty. This included oil but their fields are now in rapid decline
3197 so a high proportion of this fuel for transportation
3198
is now imported
3199
. This is likely to become an increasing problem as the oil producing countries cut back on their exports to conserve their supply of this crucial fuel 3200 . The supply situation is probably even worse for natural gas
3201
. The U.S was a manufacturing giant
3202
using its own resources to produce goods, many of which were sold to the rest of the world. That is, it was exporting a lot of its natural resources in these goods. It was a prey to numerous predatory regions globally, including resource-poor Japan. The Japanese used their skills to build up manufacturing so they could export
3203
many goods to the U.S., so reducing their predatory activity. The tendency in the U.S. to go from manufacturing goods 3204 to the provision of services 3205 and the construction of suburbia 3206 has resulted 3207 in it now being a predator
3208
. It uses its position as the remaining super power
3209
(in their eyes) for preemptive deconstruction of other countries
3210
for the covert financial benefit
3211
of its military
3212
/industrial complex
3213
and Big Business
3214
. This deconstruction is coupled with its desperate but failing attempts to control oil
3215
. Its past richness
3216
has now been consumed by consumerism
3217
and is now really a delusion
3218
. Its food production is being hit by ethanol production
3219
for fuel
3220
together with drought
3221
.
Both education and health care have become less available to the majority. It is now dependent on being able to import natural resources, directly or indirectly in goods, from elsewhere
3222
. It is now vulnerable
3223
. Its greatest weakness is the importation of oil
3224 and increasingly goods and natural gas
3225
on credit
3226
combined with a rapidly increasing population of widening social diversity
3227
. It is now so financially vulnerable that many countries are injecting capital in the expectation that they can profit from
American off-shore manufacturing capabilities and its financial market. The renowned innovative capability
3228
may ease the situation if aimed in the right direction
3229
. Its entropic growth
3230
has almost certainly peaked
3231
. The increasing regulation of the behavior of society and the degrading of infrastructure are signs of the increasing difficulty of handling problems, which includes water and electricity supply
3232
in many states. Yet it could easily ease the predicament
3233
by stemming wasteful consumption
3234
, especially of gasoline
3235
, if it set its mind to coping with what it has
199

done wrong
3236
. There are no signs
3237
of the Federal Administration
3238
facing up to realities but some States
3239
and cities
3240
are. The Administration is concentrating on the dream
3241
of energy security
3242
, so Big Business is rushing the use of coal
3243
and ethanol production
3244
. There are many sound proposals for wiser use of energy but they are too late and too small to have a significant impact on the inevitable power down. Moreover, most of the populace
3245
tends to believe in the American Dream
3246
so are likely to wake up
3247
to the coming nightmare only belatedly
3248
. This delusion is not surprising as there is widespread belief in the power of free enterprise 3249 without understanding that its market forces generally do not recognize the strength of the emerging ecological limits.
The political 3250 and economic leadership has been in the wrong direction for too long 3251 ! The emerging concern about energy security 3252 is quite likely to result in belated ineffective action 3253 . It is a predator 3254 but its preys are fighting back 3255 so it is becoming cannibalistic
3256
as its leverage over the global community declines
3257
. Many of the economies of States are classic examples of the greater the boom the greater the subsequent bust – as ecological reality hits below the belt
3258
.
There is appreciable concern in informed circles of the consequences in the U.S.
and globally of the present credit crunch. This may well lead to the Greater Depression
but that is largely a manifestation of the essentially un-regulated financial market bolstered by the U.S. indebtedness. Ecological forces are starting to have an impact in many regions
3260
but this is hardly noticed in the centres of power because of the obfuscation caused by the dollar sign. The U.S. is likely to have to face up to the double whammy of ecological forces accentuating
3261
the devastation caused by the misplaced economic forces
3262
hitting the middle classes below the belt
3263
. It is still causing a major part of the high rate of global capital depreciation, largely by importing oil and causing appreciable pollution
3264
.
Russia is a stark contrast in that it has large
3266
fossil fuel resources
3267
and it is now a major exporter of both oil and gas. It is a prey, largely feeding the EU industrial energy requirements
3268
. It is, however, not jeopardizing the future in an endeavor to build up the standard of living now
3269
. It is probably in a similar position to the U.S. of forty years ago, but without a similar ‘progress’ delusion while coupled with a more resilient basis
3270
. It seemed to be in a relatively good position to avoid the worst
200

consequences of rampant capitalism
3271
but there are now signs of it taking hold
3272
. Its increasing expending rate is jeopardizing future prospects by drawing down on the large natural bounty rapidly
3273
but it is unlikely that its entropic growth has yet peaked.
China
3275
is heavily dependent on coal-fired power stations
3276
for the crucial energy supply. This coal use is significantly contributing to greenhouse gas emissions
3277
, partly because so many of them are bad emitters. On the other hand, China is increasingly having to import oil
3278
, natural gas and other natural resources
3279
. The government has plans to promote energy efficiency and security
3280
. It pays for this import by using its current low labor costs 3281 to increase the value of the goods it exports. Its eco costs, nevertheless, are high because it has to put in place measures to mitigate its profound ecological predicaments 3282 as well as building up the basic infrastructure 3283 to meet blossoming requirements from its rampant economic growth. Desertification 3284 and water supply 3285 and air pollution 3286 are virtually out of control 3287 . Its rivers and lakes are very heavily polluted
3288 . In addition, it’s manufacturing for export produces copious amounts of GHG emissions, so contributing to the draw down of the global natural bounty 3289 . Its authoritarian government, exacerbated by endemic regional corruption, fosters
3290
its rampant economic growth
3291
largely at the expense of environmental
3292 and social issues
3293
. It, like many other countries is looking for illusory energy security
3294
. It is a predator
3295
like the U.S. but does not have its financial vulnerability
3296
. There is also a lot of foreign investment
3297
, including for projects to clean up water supply
3298
and reduce air pollution. The low standard of living is rapidly improving for only some
3299
at the expense of this horrendous ecological degradation
3300
, accentuated by climate change
3301
. It can be argued that the economic growth
3302
is not really worth the damage that is being done to the ecosystem
3303
. The reality, however, is that the economic growth has so fostered entropic growth (so disorder), that it will have increasing environmental problems to cope with decreasing capability. Argument by governance and economist has little impact on the fact that the growth is unsustainable
3304 . China’s economic exploitation and the Communist Party’s monopoly on political power are now powerful forces in the destruction of the global eco system, so societal cohesion
3305
.
201

India has some similarities to China
3307
in that they are both colossal societies with a rapidly developing urban economy (appetite to use natural resources and devastate their ecosystems for a small middle class and elite). India has a ‘democratic’ government that exercises less control over a rampant predatory business community. Its economic growth has been largely based on burgeoning intellectual energy amongst a minority but its social diversity inhibits the wealth trickle down effect
3308
. It has a very large population of rural and urban poor. Its traditionally sound farming has been decimated by the forced introduction of unsound agribusiness methods coupled with dumping. Water supply predicaments are growing rapidly 3309 partly because of the introduction of this wasteful farming and it is being exacerbated by climate change 3310 . It is a predator desperately trying to ensure energy security 3311 by importation 3312 while ineffectually tackling manifest internal ecological predicaments 3313 . Its government is, understandably, slow to endorse its mitigation of climate change 3314 .
Japan is in a very different position in that it has very few natural resources and has been a predator for a long time. It has been able to make do by being smart so adding value to goods that it has exported to pay for its natural resources imports. It has a culture that is conservative in its use of these natural resources because of widespread recognition of the limitations. Its advantage in the manufacturing area is decreasing due to competition from other countries like Korea, Taiwan and now, increasingly, China. Its predicaments are accentuated by the decline in global fisheries. It is quite likely that its entropic growth has peaked and they will increasingly run into predicaments in providing basic needs for its aging population
3316
. The government is running into difficulties in ensuring its future energy security
3317
. This is no surprise as a number of large countries are doing the same
3318
. There are signs of desperate measures being promoted there
3319
.
Global energy demand is outweighing supply. The global entropic growth of this critical
resource has almost certainly peaked
3320
. It is probably one of the most vulnerable countries but there is more recognition of their predicament.
The Middle East is an interesting mix with its oil and gas resources and its explosive population and consumption growth
3322
. The emerging trend to slow down oil exports because of the climbing local demand is likely to have an impact on the global
202

economy, especially as their oil extraction capacity shows signs of declining
3323
. They are a prey as many countries, particularly the U.S., are dependent on a continuing high rate extraction of oil in this region. Regional tensions
3324
add appreciably to the uncertainty about what the future holds. For example, Dubai
3325
is enjoying a surge in economic growth fueled by the draw down of their natural capital that may turn out to be too rapid
3326
.
Australia is in a good position
3328
, according to its leaders, because it has plenty of natural resources to export
3329
. These include coal, iron ore, natural gas and uranium 3330 . It also exports appreciable amounts of wheat 3331 . These exports have financed a high material standard of living, particularly in the cities, where a vast majority of the small population lives. Like many developed economies, however, it is becoming more reliant on importing manufactured items financed by easy credit. It has the advantages found in developed countries of sound societal and infrastructure for the essentials of comfortable living – for now. It has natural gas resources and used to be able to meet the
demand for oil from local fields
3332 . Coal, including particularly ‘dirty’ lignite, is the main source of electricity. The reality is that it is lacking in those invaluable natural resources, water and fertile soil
3333 . Liebig’s Law of the Minimum should have provided warning of this vulnerability but it did not seep through to the centers of power in the cities
3334
. The widespread, water supply predicament
3335
is now causing increasing concern, even amongst the powerful
3336
. The management of the prime river system,
Murray-Darling Basin is being subject to close scrutiny
3337
as it is falling short on environmental and water allocation grounds
3338
. It is quite clear that these basic resources have not been subject to the appropriate consideration as there was more money to be made in mining
3339
. Australia is a prey community that has probably reached its peak of entropic growth. It is likely to have increasing difficulty
3340
in meeting eco costs of growing adaptation
3341
, remedial
3342
and mitigation needs
3343
. The present drought, which is quite likely accentuated by climate change
3344
, is providing strong evidence
3345
of that reality
3346
. But it has the advantage over many other countries in that it has sounder foundations even though it has followed the consumptive trend in recent decades
3347
.
203

Consider a contrary example, Cuba. It was a predatory community dependent on trade with the Soviet Union for decades because of the U.S. trade embargo. Its agriculture was a manifestation of the Green Revolution. It received the subsidized farm machinery in return for sugar exports. This trade ended when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1990. Cuba was left with no alternative than to return to the basics in food production supplemented by rapidly developing local knowledge and skills. They have made admirable improvement in that regards although their ‘standard of living’ in material terms is not comparable with their big neighbor
3349
. On the other hand, their educational and medical services seem to be, if anything, appreciably better 3350 . Their agronomy certainly is. It is quite possible that relaxation of the US trade embargo would encourage a degree of emulation of the perceived American consumptive life style. The crucial point is that the Cubans have been through their crisis and they can look forward to further improvements as they have the knowledge and skills of the fundamentals. They will be able to feed themselves without a crucial dependence on oil
3351
. Their economy can be expected to grow marginally as the authoritarian government eases
3352
, so long as climate change does not cause them too many problems 3353 .
Consider another contrary example, Nigeria
3355
. With a population of 130 million, it is the largest country in Africa and has been independent since 1960. At that stage it was able to feed its populace and even export food but it now has to import and many of the population are extremely poor and ill fed. This is largely because of the population increase. As it had abundant oil and natural gas
3356
it would have been in a good position if it had not been weakened by internal corruption and the devastation caused by Western Big Business
3357
. It gives every appearance of having exceeded its carrying capacity
3358
. The future does not look bright for most of the populace
3359
.
Finland appears to be in a very sound position. It has a low population density so can provide the basics though it does have to import many raw materials and industrial energy
3361
. It has a skilled work force that has established strong exports in IT and communications. It currently enjoys a high global educational, social and cultural ranking. This has come about because of good leadership, belief in social justice and good old-fashioned values. It is liable, however, to be vulnerable to a global recession
204

hitting both its imports and exports
3362
. Nevertheless, it is reasonably well set up for coping with power down as it has a sound culture.
The Latin American countries are not in such a good position. The emergence of the integrationist and anti-imperialist policies under the leadership of Chavez will doubtless help them to overcome some of the harm done by the free market
(neoliberalism). Collaboration under Mercosur will doubtless help but the wide social diversity and endemic corruption will doubtless lead to many future problems.
Let turn now to what may well be an unusual case. The Western Downs is located on the western (so arid) side of the Dividing Range in Queensland, Australia. It used to be a farming and grazing region in decline because of the drought and the young folk were tending to migrate to the city of Brisbane. It is now booming due to the discovery and exploitation of coal-gas-water fields 3365 . Industry is moving in to take advantage of these natural resources. They will clearly have sufficient industrial energy to make the brackish water potable. They are looking to exporting some of the coal using a rail line to be installed. Moves are being made to improve the educational facilities and the migration pattern has reversed. The skill level of the community is improving rapidly.
The future looks bright to the inhabitants although developers have moved in and land prices have escalated. The local council is already talking in terms of it being a good example of decentralization. It can be argued that the region is in an advantageous position for growth by starting with a good resource base and a greater understanding of the consequences of misusing these resources whilst being in an area unlikely to be appreciably affected by climate change. It seems likely that the region will enjoy a prosperous decade or so but immigration combined with resource depletion may result in its entropic growth peaking and difficult times then setting in. The main point is that the
Western Downs is a relatively isolated region that has better prospects than in general.
There are bound to be smart people looking for regions like that and this will reduce their long-term prospects because of the immigration.
The Mediterranean coast of Spain provides another example of where circumstances are changing very rapidly. Speculators have moved in to take advantage of the popularity of this region amongst newly enriched northern Europeans rushing to escape the cold. Lax
205

controls are enabling environmental despoiling. It is expected that climate change will decrease the popularity of the region in the near future. It will become too hot. In addition, immigration is likely to decline, as fewer people will be able to afford the move.
The luxurious housing sprouting up now could well become an embarrassing liability
3367
, especially as the air-conditioning becomes too expensive.
In summary then, the Body order has been growing more rapidly in some regions that others because the leverage of money and know how has accentuated this growth. In many cases, however, the order of the Body is now trending to disorder. The entropy is growing as the infrastructure deteriorates and also becomes less worthwhile
3369
. This entropic growth will be accentuated as much of the infrastructure becomes redundant
3370
.
This view differs from the conventional view only in the recognition that the synthetic operations of society inevitably entail an entropy increase because they follow the Life
Axiom. They come at an un-repayable eco cost, so a contribution to the entropic growth of Gaia. Peak Body entropy growth will follow so giving a declining ability for the natural bounty in the region to meet the operational, maintenance and remedial needs of the society
3371
.
We noted earlier that time is irreversible. Time passes for all of us. We generally
recognize our mortality. It is time now for human society to recognize that the use of most of the natural bounty is irreversible
3373
. That includes the driver of much of
‘prosperous’ 3374
society, easy industrial energy. It has a life and much of that has already been used up. We would be wise to temper our appetite to mitigate the decline
3375
.
While the past growing of the Body of civilization followed by the current signs of senescence show similarities to what happens during the lives of organisms (including humans), there is one major difference. The Body relies for sustenance on the supply of natural resources, some of which are exhaustible
3377
. Organisms rely for sustenance on the supply of natural resources, all of which are replenishable. This is a profound difference. Organisms may die from old age, disease or accident, which can include lack of sustenance. The Body of civilization will inevitably decline through depletion of natural resource capital 3378 . Some past civilizations have expired for this reason without having the dependence on the fossil fuels that characterizes the current industrialized
206

civilization. Society should recognize that limitation on draw down of capital so that mitigation action will be undertaken.
Kings and queens had to accept that their elite position in society did not allow them to overcome their mortality. Powerful countries and communities will doubtless also learn this lesson in due course 3380 . Nature has already been so severely ravaged that the signs are becoming quite noticeable
3381
, even to those with their heads in the clouds.
We are in this perilous position because we introduced Life Axiom procedures 3383 into the ecosystem that irreversibly draw down on the limited natural bounty 3384 . Science and technology has led us to falsely believe we can control the operation of the ecosystem. It has enabled the rapacious homo sapiens to fool themselves.
The role of decisions in what has happened to the operation of the ecosystem will now be examined. This is done only to clarify the mechanism
3386
that has enabled humans to make so many decisions that have been bad for the ecosystem and, ultimately, for human society.
An important point is that many ecological operations have to be activated. They do not occur spontaneously. The appropriate gene has to be activated to enable the production of protein. A tap has to be turned on for water to come out of the showerhead.
A match has to be struck. This activation requires a decision. This need for activation is so obvious you must wonder why I raise it here. It is to emphasize the importance of decisions in what happens in the ecosystem as we move on to examine the freedom to make these decisions. We have already seen that many human decisions have had unintended and unfortunate consequences!
We are aware that we make many conscious and unconscious decisions in our mind. This is a fact that we tend to take for granted. Specialists try to obtain greater understanding of just how this happens. There is appreciable controversy about how this ability came about. However, we do not need to have a great depth of understanding of the process to know that it happens. We individually make many conscious decisions
207

every day. We know that other species do this too although not at the same level
3389
.
There have been scientists in the past who have believed that it is a deterministic world.
They believe that we do not have this freedom to make decisions. I view this as muddled thinking. Thankfully it is not part of the new physics emerging with the understanding of chaos dynamics. The freedom to make decisions about possibilities 3390 is presumed in the following examination.
There is quite a bit of current controversy about ‘intelligent design’. Those that support this view contend that evolution of complex species, including humans, could not possibly be based on the simplistic Darwinian natural selection
3392
. Gould, on the other hand, argues that the complex organisms are the exception rather than the rule. Simple organisms, like microbes, constitute a much greater proportion of living matter than humans. However, all that matters here is that we humans do exist. These abstruse arguments are not relevant to the issue being discussed here. The ecosystem is inhabited by a huge array of interacting species
3393
. They carry out a vast number of operations continually. Some of these operations conflict with others. There is clear evidence that operations installed by humans often conflict with natural operations
3394
. De-forestation has made mudslides more prevalent as they have removed the natural mechanism to bind the soil together. This is just one of numerous examples of where human decisions have created ecological problems. The development of London has greatly modified the ecology of the Thames valley. These examples show the serious consequences of human decisions. The decisions by other animals have trivial impact by comparison
3395
.
I read Gell-Mann’s
3397
comments about his personal experience of creative thinking. This enticed me to think through the operations required to formulate the arguments in this essay about the freedom we have to make decisions. It occurred to me that I could help to make my argument about decisions by citing an example. A developer may well decide to erect an apartment complex on a selected site largely because he deems it to be a wise investment. The decision is largely a financial one. He would, of course, take into account other factors but he would largely presume that the necessary labor, industrial energy and materials would be available at a price. That is, he would be making a decision within the constraints of the present economy of the region and presumptions of future trends. He almost certainly does not think about the fact that many
208

of the natural resources to be used are exhaustible
3398
. He almost certainly would not give a second thought to the fact that the complex will eventually be demolished because that would not be his responsibility. That is, his decision would be based on the possibilities within the abstract domain in which he operates. His decision would not differ in principle from that of a beaver who decides to build a dam on a creek. The decisions are limited only by the possibilities with the perceived available tools and resources and have specific objectives within the perceived circumstances. The developer is little better in principle than the beaver in taking into account the material consequences of their decisions. In fact, it can be argued that the developer is worse off because she/he is conditioned to believe human’s use of natural resources is innately beneficial when, in reality, it is having a long-term, deleterious impact
3399
.
A fundamental point is that a process can occur spontaneously
3401
or it needs to be activated
3402
. Activation requires a specific action based on a decision. This clearly illustrates the line of demarcation we wish to bring out here. It is a mental attribute if a human makes the decision. It is based on operational information and knowledge. But fundamentally, it is an intangible rather than something substantial that is subject to physical natural laws. The same applies to the decisions made by the developer as to those made by the beaver.
I find that a useful way to look at this issue is the way I operate. I differentiate between the operations of my mind and body for this examination. My body operates in a manner partially ordained by the orders send by my mind. These operations of the body are governed by natural laws. In making this statement, I do not presume that we know all the natural laws that govern the wide range of complex operations in my body. Chaos dynamics and thermodynamics help us to understand some aspects. Doubtless biologists and medical people have a much better understanding of the operations of the organs and the other complex systems that make up my body. But I do not need that understanding to appreciate that a range of biophysical laws governs these operations. They limit the possible operations. I am in my seventies so my body will not enable me to run fast. But I can take my dog for a walk and I eat and sleep well. I am unaware, naturally, of most of the activities going on in my body continually. Cells are being created and dying all the time. The beating of my heart is amazingly consistent so goes almost unnoticed but I
209

have wondered at the mechanism that established the beat. It is outside of the natural laws that I am familiar with. I need not go on, as everyone is aware of this amazing set of operations, if they care to think about them.
Many of these operations are not spontaneous. They have potential
3405
but have to be activated, like genes activating the production of protein. A decision has to be made to carry out that activation. The natural laws govern what happens following the activation.
They govern the potential operation. The activation leads to the irreversible realization of that potential. It brings about the operation of the Second Law.
That covers the operation of my body in a superficial fashion. Now to turn to my mind. I am aware that there is appreciable debate about consciousness and free will
3407
. In my view, there is no need to speculate on how it arises for the purpose of this essay. I believe it is a simple fact that people are able to make conscious decisions of their own free will
3408
. These decisions are bounded by what is deemed possible and, doubtless, are often prejudiced by factors like financial cost that conflict with the ecological reality
3409
.
But the person is still able to make the decision
3410
even though it may be influenced by habit
3411
. I believe those scientists who claim that we live in a deterministic world and do not have the freedom to make decisions have got the situation out of perspective.
There are some, like Odum, who argue that the development of civilizations follows Lotka’s Principle 3413
in that the entropy generation occurs at a maximum rate.
That seemed to me to be a simplification that does help us to understand what has happened when we take into account how industrial energy has fostered the misdirection of human energy. I do not believe that the development of the U.S. and Chinese economies can be tarred with the same brush! The irony is that the examination here of the impact of synthetic systems leads to the conclusion that the entropy associated with the material foundations of both these societies, and all others, did not necessarily grow initially. There is little doubt that the degree of order of the Bodies of all communities tend to grow with the construction of buildings, infrastructure etc (with human skills making use of natural resources), so contributing to entropic growth of Gaia 3414 .
However, a stage is reached when, for a variety of reasons, disorder tends to increase in the Body. Entropy growth commences. The emerging predicaments become harder to remedy, to adapt to
3415
or to mitigate.
210

The major point in my opinion is that the decision-making is a mental process largely independent of the biophysical system, in the brain, in which it is made. It is appropriate to utilize the statistical concept of correlation here to provide a better indicator of the relation between the decision-making and the vehicle in which it is made.
I assert the correlation between the two is low. The decision may be slightly affected by tiredness or aging: statements on the capability of the brain. But this is only slightly. The decision-making is very largely independent of the state of the brain 3417 .
I read a long essay on memeplexes. It was asking the question of why so many people are denying peak oil
3419
. It is a deep study of our self-identity and the mechanisms involved. It tends to elaborate on why we make the decisions. We are concerned here, however, with the consequences of these decisions on the operation of the body, my own or the Body of civilization. For example, we have used up a large proportion of the global supply of oil
3420
. This means that it cannot be used again
3421
. We are depriving others, now and in the future, of access to that valuable source of industrial energy. Yet we continue to make decisions to use this oil wastefully. It can be argued that knowing what we know, epistemology
3422
will help us to understand why we make these decisions. I do not have the expertise or the desire to go deeper into this matter. I just take the view that our knowledge is not constrained in the manner that the operations of our bodies are constrained
3423
. That there are no natural laws that limit what we think. I prefer the evidence that we have unknowingly misused our exosomatic tools
3424
to use up the natural bounty to the extent that it is quite likely we are bringing on a mass extinction
3425
.
We have also used these tools to advance our culture
3426
but that cannot continue unless we come to terms with the declining operation of the Body of civilization.
I will digress to show some graphs that convey a better impression of the question of peak oil 3428 . These show the discovery and production (extraction is a more correct term but it is rarely used) with time. There are signs that the producers are tending to conserve as the signs of decline build up and this means that the amount available for export will decline very rapidly 3429 . Importing countries, like the U.S., are likely to be hit very hard.
211

This graph is a realistic way of looking at the controversial oil supply situation. It is more illustrative of the situation than the peak supply curve shown later on. It is easy to see that the limits to US lower 48 discovery and production are going to be about 190 Gb and production will continue to follow sooner due to improvements in technology
3430
. This increasing production difficulty, of course, is consistent with the assertion here of global entropic growth peaking.
212

This graph shows the similar global situation in which many countries have lagged behind the U.S. in discovering then using this irreplaceable resource. The slope of the brown line suggests that ‘Peak Oil’ 3432
is possibly happening now. The widening gap between discovery and production is probably because the giant fields were discovered first. Improving technology does not appear to have offset this decline in field quality.
The green line implies that the subsequent rate of production
3433
will start to decline quite rapidly in the near future.
213

This graph shows the global situation with respect to natural gas with a marked increase due to one gigantic discovery in 1971. There is no suggestion of a decline in the near future but the graph does emphasise the fudamental point that there will be alimited to the amount produced and the production rate will decline.
214

There has not been a similar gigantic find in U.S plus Canada and, due to the earlier development, it is quite likely that peak production has passed although the decline is not yet apparent. This view is supported by the efforts to import gas in LNG tankers.
Now I will return to the discussion about decision making. I find a computer and its software is another useful illustration of the demarcation between operational information and the mechanism for handling it. The manifestation of the software is a multitude of electrical signals in the computer hardware. The operation of the software is dependent on the hardware being up and running. But the meaning of the software is entirely independent of that operation. The software could be a text document in any language.
That has no impact on how the computer handles the signals, the operational information.
It is more important however, to recognize that the operation of the computer is governed by natural laws
3437
while they have no impact on the meaning of the text.
The simplest analogy in relation to the freedom to make decisions I can think of is the coin tossing game. I can play the game by deciding to toss a coin. I am free to make that decision under most circumstances. The impulse my thumb applies to the coin is
215

unpredictable. Consequently, so is the result of the toss. Natural laws govern what happens to the coin after the initial impulse is applied. But they do not determine whether the fall is heads or tails because that is determined by the unpredictable applied impulse.
Tossing the coin brings out a number of very important points. Many physicists have in recent centuries pontificated on the determinism of nature, largely due to the formulation of Newtonian dynamics. Recent advances in physics have tended to deny this determinism. Most people have neither the knowledge nor understanding to refute either view. They are confused, however, by the fact that apparently knowledgeable people put forward these views. This example brings out the fundamentals clearly without any need to understand why determinism is a flawed scientific view. It is pleasing that the new physics, which includes chaos dynamics, does not countenance determinism. I can make the decision to toss the coin. It is a possibility, if I have a coin and my hand is not in plaster, that I can choose to realize. The appropriate situation exists. The decision is virtually unaffected by whether I have tossed a coin before or whether I toss one again in the future. It is an isolated event virtually independent of time. That is point one.
Secondly, the result of the tossing is unknowable (within defined limits: head or tail) before the toss. But it is known when the coin lands. Determinism cannot exist in this simple case. It is easy to cite numerous other examples to establish that determinism is a flawed view. This just reinforces the argument by Prigogine that the period of belief by physicists in determinism is drawing to a close.
The case of a lottery winner serves as another example. That chance win opens up a whole new world of decisions for the winner. The fact that they may well result in an appreciable increase in consumption of stuff by the winner is an example of where a free decision has led to a waste of natural resources. But the increased scope of free choice
illustrates the nature of the Freedom Axiom .
Myriad of free choices, within limits, is made every day. The limits on humans are wider than for other animals. The humans can make decisions that entail an appreciable eco cost while those by other species generally do not. The limits for the ‘haves’ in our society are wider than for the ‘have nots’. A central contention here is that this freedom, under the influence of financial considerations, has been a major factor in the drive of
216

society towards catastrophe. However, that does not deny the power of that freedom. The consequences, however, have been appalling, mainly because of ignorance.
Gell-Mann regards natural laws as being information. This is understandable. They are human formalizations of aspects of what actually happens. They provide guidance on what takes place in natural operations. They do not take part in the operations themselves.
It is just a matter of how you look at these things. I am looking at what happens in natural operations. This is a different perspective. It can be called experiential. So we are looking here at how quoting natural laws is indicative of what inevitably happened in the prescribed circumstances.
We will now summarize for a process supplying industrial energy to a consumer.
The energy flow process is irreversible. It makes no difference if the energy is stored for eons, as in coal, or whether it is in water stored for only a short period in the pondage of a hydro plant. The source of the industrial energy in all of those cases affecting operations of society is insolation. That is, the photons of energy radiated from the Sun that impinge on Earth. The ultimate destiny of the flow of energy is as true waste heat radiated back into space. Well-understood natural laws govern this process
3443
. That is what happens in an energy flow process, if the process is activated. That is the consequence of the decision to activate the process. The activation decision is not governed by natural laws.
It is doubtless influenced by operational information flow, the learning process,
knowledge acquisition but it is not an irreversible process like time and energy flow. This
is the basic reason why we are able to draw down on natural capital without consideration for future generations. We do it of our own free will! Nature does not impose limits to the decisions
3444
leading to our exuberant waste of this capital. It does impose limits on the amount of capital that can be consumed in due course.
I have a feel for what constraints natural laws place on the operation of my aging body. I make certain I have an adequate diet, drink plenty of fluids, have physical exercise every day and have eight hours sleep. I limit the physical activities to those appropriate to my advanced age and weakened muscles. I take precautionary measures when I feel ‘off color’. These are supplemented by annual medical check ups. In other words, I listen to
217

what my body has to say and act accordingly. I know my body is aging even though I do no really understand the process.
On the other hand, my mind is free to pursue trains of thought almost completely unencumbered by biophysical constraints. My memory is not as good as I might like.
There are other deficiencies due to lack of experience and learning. But my mind is not constrained in its activities to the extent that my body is. I can write computer programs to the best of my ability. I can write essays limited only by my imagination and by
grammatical skills. However, I cannot place unreasonable demand s on my body without
having to suffer the consequences.
My personal mental circumstances are typical of those of society. Einstein, Shakespeare,
Hawking, Gandhi, Newton, Mandela, Mozart, Lincoln and the like have been free to exercise their intellectual talents to make major contributions to our culture, whilst their bodies were alive. Lovelock
3448
continues to think constructively even though he is eighty nine. It is easy to recognize where people have made positive contributions to our culture.
The other side of the coin is not so well recognized. Society does not, for some inexplicable reason, recognize that the material foundations of society are crumbling. We do not implicitly take into account that everything we do and use requires the consumption of natural bounty. We have a culture that promotes advances to the sky without full consideration of the state of the Body.
I had a career as an aeronautical research scientist. That fostered my self-esteem as I was given to believe I was doing something useful. The remuneration I received for my efforts enabled my family and I to enjoy a comfortable standard of living. I did not give any thought whatsoever to what our activities were doing to the ecosystem. My decisions were often constrained by financial considerations but very rarely by concern about what they would do to the environment. I was not aware of the
Consequence
Axiom . I behaved like any normal citizen. I was a parasite.
We are not the only species that is free to decide to activate an operation
3451
. A beaver may decide to build a dam on a stream
3452
. A gene may be activated to carry out the instructions to make a protein
3453
. Billions of these activations are going on
218

continually. They activate possible processes
3454
. Processes that fall within the limits prescribed by natural laws
3455
. The vast majority of these natural processes, however, have trivial deleterious impact so Gaia is able to cope with them. However, we have created a synthetic environment in which many of the decisions we have made have had serious deleterious consequences, many of them unintended. The prime example is the use of fossil fuels with the unintended consequence of the emissions having harmful effects, including global warming 3456 , harmful pollution and acid rain. I am sure that many regret the decision to go ahead with the Manhattan Project. The atomic bombing of
Hiroshima and Nagasaki may have had short-term beneficial effects as regards shortening the war but there have been long-term harmful effects
3457
. And there is no turning back the clock. The damage has been done. We have built up a structure of civilization with many faults. There are many more decisions that humans have made that are now being regretted
3458
.
Ideas do not die. Shakespeare’s words live on. So do the words of the Koran.
Genetic messages may change slowly with time but they continue to reliably control the production of protein and other aspects of metabolism. The delusion that economic growth is possible without devastating the ecosystem lives on, despite the cries to the contrary. The quality of memes may vary with time but not through a dependency on
time .
Another way of looking at this issue is to hypothesize that operational information does degrade with use then see if there is evidence to support the hypothesis. The argument that my mental ability has deteriorated with age can be dismissed as not being relevant to the hypothesis. Doubtless neurological connections in my brain have been lost and this does affect how my brain works. But that is a biophysical reality. The hypothesis is clearly untenable. There is, there fore, no logical argument to support the assertion that operational information degrades with use. Yet physical energy does degrade with use.
We can continue to have stock market speculation whilst billions starve.
The bottom line is that the decision making process does not necessarily develop along wise lines as the result of elapsing time
3462
. It can change with time but this change is due to other causative factors
3463
. Fiscal policies have had a major impact for centuries
3464
. The consolidated global decision making process has not changed
219

significantly as the result of misuse of the ecosystem
3465
. There is not a strong reality feedback system in operation
3466
. This may seem to be a play on words but it really has a very great significance. This lack of realistic constraints on decision-making means that there is no biophysical mechanism to ensure that it does not get out of hand
3467
.
Consequently, it has 3468 .
This ability to make decisions free of natural constraints is illusory freedom
3470
.
Society does impose profound financial constraints and, unfortunately, they are prejudiced in such a way that civilization goes on its merry way at the expense of the ecosystem and its own future.
It means that humans can make decisions to activate traumatic events that substantially disrupt the operations of communities and the associated ecosystem. The atomic bombing of Hiroshima is an outstanding example
3472
. We humans are not alone in having that capability, however. Natural forces can also set off a traumatic event like the
eruption of Krakatoa. It takes Gaia a long time to recover from such events while society
can usually repair the damage to the Body
3473
only at appreciable eco cost over time. The difference between synthetic
3474
and natural traumatic events is in the numbers. Humans have activated so many of these events
3475
that nature has been unable to cope with the cumulative damage. Consequently there is more disorder. Global entropy has grown rapidly.
A fascinating comparison emerges from this discussion. It is quite clear that there has to be a source of available physical energy in order for work to be done. That establishes the potential for the work to be done. It is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the work to be done. And the result after the work has been done is true waste heat
3477
. That is the consequence of having the work done
3478
. That is what happens in any energy process, whether natural or industrial. The work will be done if the process is activated. That is, if a decision is made to carry out the activation.
Let us now concentrate on the upstream portion of this process: what is entailed in triggering the activation. We will only consider that case in an industrial process. A worker makes the decision. That person is paid money to do the job. Following this line of reasoning, the availability of money enables the work to be done. This is a common situation in industrial society: if there is no money available for a particular purpose, the
220

work will not be done. This is another necessary condition for that work to be done. We now have two conditions, the availability of both the energy and the money, which together provide sufficiency. The energy is dissipated while the money is conserved in the work process, it just circulates
3480
. It is like a perpetual motion machine
3481
. This role of the money is well recognized while the demise of the energy is not. Money drives civilization to the cliff edge, but does not provide a parachute whilst the energy usage supplies a brake!
The same argument applies to the usage of natural bounty. Those that believe in the monetary system believe that the only impediment to repeating the usage is having sufficient financial resources available
3483
. The reality is that the usage was irreversible.
The bottom line, as we well know, is that money tends to drive most of the decisions made in society regardless of how well the price represents the true eco cost.
The implication is that as ecological reality bites, money will lose value
3485
. Society cannot afford to draw down so rapidly on the remaining natural bounty. Currently, however, society is free to make whatever decisions it likes within limits that are ecological only on some occasions
3486
, and to hell with the consequences! We are enjoying our free lunch so let future generations pay for it.
The consequences
Human endeavor over a relatively short space of time has established a material basis to
civilization by devising means of drawing down on the irreplaceable natural capital, degrading the environment with the resultant exacerbating waste and corrupting natural diversity. This has enabled a population explosion to compound the holistic predicament
3488
. And it has enabled many of these people to strive to satisfy their material wants, unknowing of the consequences. That is the reality, no matter how much seemingly knowledgeable people deny it
3489
.
Many concerned people see population growth as being a problem in its own right
3491
. Demographers consider all aspects of its differing variation in various regions.
Many who point out realistically that exponential growth of population is not possible in
221

an environment, like our ecosystem, that has limited resources, have followed Malthus’ line of argument. This view is based on the assumption that the natural resources are replenishable. But we know that many of these resources are not replenishable
3492
or do not replenish at the rate in which they are being used
3493
. This implied qualification has led to misunderstanding. There is really a problem with consumption that is exacerbated by growth. This produces a double whammy! It is easy to appreciate the reality by referring to the car analogy again. The irreplaceable resources a population consumes can be likened to the fuel the engine uses. A growing population is like the car accelerating, so the rate of usage of fuel is increasing. The tank is emptying at an increasing rate. That can only continue until the tank is empty. The major point here is that the situation is unchanged in principle even if the speed of the car is unchanged. It is still using fuel and this cannot continue. The population can only remain steady if the resources they consume are being replenished. If the resources are declining then the population will die off eventually. This is what happens in plagues of locusts
3494
, mice, rabbits and humans
3495
. The well-known ‘
Limits to Growth’
has encouraged the misleading view of population. The book does look realistically at the scenario so it is only the title that is misleading. The reality is that there are limits to consumption in our finite world because much of what we are consuming is not replenishing at the necessary rate. Population growth just exacerbates that predicament substantially. The food decline is the primary cause of the locusts’ die off, not the high population.
222

Over population has been exacerbated by the growth of social diversity. There are now billions who labor manually to eke out a pitiful existence. They evoke a very small eco cost per head but the overall cost is appreciable, but worthwhile in the humanitarian sense. Yet there is a case for a decline in this population to reduce the decimation of the natural bounty in these regions whilst their living standard rises to reasonable levels. On the other hand there are many, particularly in the developed and developing countries, who invoke an unnecessarily high eco cost per head. There is a case there for reduction in both population and consumption in order to eke out the remaining natural bounty. It will require a major reduction in the growing drive ‘to succeed’ 3497
. More people will have to
223

be satisfied with a lower (material) standard of living but it could well lead to a higher quality of life.
We are aware that natural checks and balances have operated throughout recent evolution
3499
. The roles of predators and prey seem to be quite well understood by zoologists. It appears that evolutionary variations in these checks and balances have contributed to past species extinctions
3500
. It seems quite likely that fast variations in these checks and balances in recent times due to human activities have contributed to the rapid species extinctions 3501 now being monitored. I expect that there is understanding amongst experts in the field as to the circumstances that enable natural plagues to occur.
It may be simply that good weather conditions result in an abundant food supply that allows rapid population growth. The fact is, plagues of various species do occur under certain conditions and die offs result. There is quite compelling evidence that this has also happened previously in a number of civilizations
3502
. The rapid growth of the global population
3503
in the past century seems to be a plague of unprecedented proportions
3504
.
It can be argued that it has already reached the die off
3505
phase in some regions, particularly in Africa where there is a population explosion with the high birth rate offsetting the die off
3506
. Affluence destruction and build disintegration have yet to come as industrial energy availability declines
3507
.
The critical point here is that populating is not a process subject to natural laws.
Individuals have lives subject to natural laws
3509
but the aggregated population is determined by replacement. It is not self-regulation although it is self-organization to a degree. The global population has grown almost out of control in recent times partly because the Green Revolution has improved the food supply quantity although not quality. In fact, as it has been argued above, it is inevitable that population growth will reverse as a die off occurs for a variety of reasons. It is to be expected that ‘peak population’ will become a more common term in the near future amongst those seriously concerned with what is happening.
Knowledge is an essentially human attribute that has had a tremendous impact on what we have done. Printing opened the door in the Middle Ages to the expansion of knowledge by individuals
3511
and it has grown rapidly since. The computer has enabled an extraordinary expansion of information availability. It is doubtful whether there has
224

been a comparable expansion of knowledge as it has been obscured by complexity. It can be argued that there are clear signs that there has been a reduction in collective wisdom!
It has certainly opened up the capability of humans to play mind games
3512
rather than use their energy for the mundane. An extra terrestrial visitor would find it absolutely incomprehensible that so-called intelligent beings would use up half of an irreplaceable resource
3513
in a lifetime simply so that they can rush around madly getting nowhere!
The consequences of this double, population and knowledge, growth have both its good and bad points. We are aware of the many cultural developments that have come at little eco cost. We are familiar with the ease of living that so many more can enjoy. We bless others, like international airline travel and globalized trade
3515
, whilst downplaying their real cost. Many millions have and are enjoying a comfortable lifestyle heightened by exciting innovations. They have had no need to understand cognitive dissonance - yet.
The building of the infrastructure of civilization has been achieved by the development of human understanding of the means of using natural resources. It has enabled the creation of the technobubble. This development of human intellectual abilities has not been constrained by any natural laws. It also has not been constrained by wisdom! It has been driven by that insidious invention, money. Science, in the main, has had its head in the clouds
3517
and ignored what is at its feet when the community looked to it for guidance. The resulting technology has enabled the misuse of what Gaia had to offer. Consequently, the Body of civilization is a cancer on Gaia.
And the situation is not getting any better. To use the car analogy, the foot is pressing harder on the accelerator, the car is still speeding up and the driver is still looking far ahead and ignoring the over-heating engine. Steam is pouring out from under the bonnet. The needle on the fuel gauge is in the red zone marked E but that is also ignored.
Much is made of the booming Chinese economy. It uses its bounty of cheap labor to produce mountains of cheap stuff for the Western world. This boom enables them to buy other countries resources at an increasing rate. This boom is speeding up the global car as never before. It is speeding up the over-heating of the engine and the emptying of the tank as well. Yet it is called a boom
3520
!
225

China
3522
is probably the current outstanding example of the crazy race
3523
to emulate the U.S. in using up what Gaia has to offer in the quest for status symbols. But
India is another emerging giant with others, like Russia and Brazil, not far behind.
This is what has happened. And the built up of momentum combined with inertia will ensure this devastation continues to some degree even if some wisdom should suddenly emerge and, even less likely, stimulates appreciable positive mitigation action.
The current emphasis is on technology to provide more industrial energy 3525 as oil declines, with much emphasis going on alternative sources that produce fewer emissions.
This is intended to enable economic growth
3526
to continue. This attitude continues to ignore what the draw down of the natural capital involves
3527
. There is no sign of counting the true eco cost
3528
. Consequently, the rapid growth in the global entropy
3529 will continue so long as the resources can be garnered by hook
3530
or by crook
3531
. This devastation of the environment is a fact even though most people are blind to it.
Doubtless there will be retrospective debate as to why humans have continued down this path when warnings have been sounded for centuries. Wisdom does not seem to have shouted out loudly enough. Doubtless there will also be debate about what will happen in the future. Some will claim
3532
that the cancer can be cured
3533
. Yet there are no serious moves to defuse the population bomb in a humanitarian manner. Those who ignore the
ecological reality of the Consequence Axiom and believe we can become wise, despite
the evidence to the contrary
3534
, will prejudice the debate
3535
.
A consolidation of the current ongoing activities of the global community will help to put the foregoing into perspective. As before, we will only look at the substantive operation of the community. That is, what is happening to the Body of this community at the expense of Gaia. In the day-today operations, the functioning of the ecosystem, there are a wide range of activities that entail essentially no eco cost. Plants and animals, including humans, tend to complement each other under the stimulus of insolation. On the other hand, there is a range of synthetic operations that do incur an irrevocable eco cost. They irreversibly draw down on the remaining natural bounty 3537 . These eco costs include the depletion of the irreplaceable fossil fuels, arable land and aquifer water, despoiling of soil fertility 3538 and production of irrevocable gaseous 3539 , liquid 3540 and solid wastes 3541 . These costs are incurred in providing the goods and services required
226

every day in the operation of society
3542
. There were also irrevocable eco costs entailed in the prior development of the Body. In addition to the prior draw down for the above items, there has also have been disruption to
biodiversity
3543
and geodiversity
3544
that almost invariably erodes their contributions to the operation of the ecosystem. The net result of these functional and developmental activities of the Body is a reduction in the order of Gaia’s capability. Global entropy has grown. This is the debit side of what has happened to today. It would have been possible to account for this draw down of the natural bounty without reference to what was on the credit side. This debit, of course, is never fully taken into account in the way society currently operates. It will increase tomorrow as the draw down is irreversible. It could have been less with wiser use of the natural resources and efforts to reduce the wastage and the devastation of the environment. But that is ‘water under the bridge’. It did not happen. On the credit side, society has built up a Body comprising cities, the associated infrastructure, industries, residential facilities, transportation capabilities and devices to facilitate human activities.
The know how in society has also increased tremendously but not in the provision of the basics. The order of the Body 3545 clearly increased in past centuries. That development was an example of the Fourth Law in operation. There is now appreciable evidence that the tendency is towards disorder
3546
. The entropy of the Body has bottomed out and the
Second Law has applied in recent decades
3547
. It can be argued that entropic growth of the Body has peaked. Problems like over population, climate change, oil supply limitations and lack of potable water are growing as the natural resources needed to cope with them are declining. There is appreciable pride in the achievements of society but with little recognition that the maintenance and development of this aging Body will require the further draw down of the scarce natural bounty, an unsustainable process
3548
.
The Mind of civilization has focused on building up the edifice of the Body while neglecting the foundations
3549
. It will have to face up to reality as the foundations continue to crumble
3550
.
Some examples of what has happened in the past century will help to clarify the current realistic situation. Bear in mind that these examples have appreciable momentum yet they are inherently unsustainable. They will have to slow down. ‘How’ is the trillion dollar question in many cases. On the debit side, the depletion of the fossil fuels receives
227

the most attention but there are quite a few metals and other raw materials that are becoming scarce and this will have an impact on the production of many high tech items.
De-forestation, paving over of arable land, decreasing soil fertility and desertification
3552
have had a major impact on biodiversity and the capability for food production. The
situation has been no better in regard to fishing. The generation of exacerbating waste material has instigated climate change, contamination of groundwater and river flows, contamination of the air we breathe while also generating land fill and toxic waste dump problems. There are also many products that have been developed by industry that have had unintended consequences, including deleterious impact on human health. These elements have been components in the irreversible draw down of the natural bounty.
They have all contributed to the reduction of order in Gaia.
Now to look at the credit side 3554 . That is, what have these operations done to the
Body of civilization, the build and the mechanisms that enable the functioning of society.
These are all transient
3555
so entail an ongoing commitment to use some of the remaining natural bounty for maintenance. Some of the goods and services have been regarded as valuable acquisitions by society yet it is questionable whether they have been worthwhile in the realistic sense. Electricity plays a major, indispensable role in the operation of industry, the home and commerce
3556
. Much of this use is not worthwhile even though those who have access to it appreciate its impact on comfort and what goods and services are available. The various forms of transport, cars, tucks, cargo vessels and airliners, are now regarded as also being indispensable in providing mobility for many and for bringing goods to the manufacturer, retailer and consumer. Much of this transport is not really worthwhile while making an appreciable contribution to deleterious impact on society
3557
and the ecosystem
3558
. The indispensability is a delusion because there is no way that the current level can long continue, much less grow. The provision of these synthetic services will have to increasingly vie for portions of the natural bounty with remedying, adapting to and mitigating of the damage done to the ecosystem.
The development of ecological operations is irreversible. That is the most fundamental natural law. Just as we cannot turn back the clock, we cannot undo what we have done wrong
3560
. This inability is summed up by the renowned physicists Prigogine and Stengers with ‘No speculation, no teaching has ever affirmed an equivalence between
228

what has been done and what is undone: between a plant that sprouts, flowers and dies, and a plant that resuscitates, grows younger and returns to its original seed; between a man who grows older and learns, and one who becomes a child, then an embryo, then a cell.’ 3561
Their view is simple intuitive wisdom. But we do not take it into account in what we decide to do. We have yet to face up to what we have done wrong!
Consider the history of the development of Australian civilization over the past two centuries in terms of the various forms of tangible 3563 capital 3564 . That intangible capital based on money
3565
has had a major influence on the decisions that have been made but no impact whatsoever on what has actually happened in the substantial operation of the ecosystem so the influence of money is only marginally relevant to this examination. The operations of Australian civilization have, of course, been very dependent on natural income, like sunshine and rainfall, but only capital usage will be examined here. The income will be presumed to continue, as ever, and more worthwhile use of it as a partial substitute for capital draw down can be expected as the scarcity of capital becomes more apparent. The crucial point is that everything done and used by society entails the irreversible consumption of some of the natural bounty whether it is income or capital. Natural capital has been transformed inefficiently
3566
and temporarily
3567
into material capital
3568
but know how and tools have improved that to give industrial capital 3569 . Whilst natural capital and material capital are tangible deterministic materialistic structures, industrial capital is largely an abstraction. The worth of the construction is dependent on its contribution to the operation of society. A derelict skyscraper does not contribute to the operation of society so is worthless industrial capital although its construction entailed an appreciable depreciation of natural capital being transformed into material capital. The industrial capital being considered here is the construction, infrastructure, goods and services that make worthwhile
229

contributions
3570
to the operation of society. Society has good reason to be proud of many of the achievements in building up industrial capital, as they have enabled a high material standard of living for many. Unfortunately the irrevocable eco cost
3571
has not been fully taken into account. At the same time, social capital had also increased, partly because
automation has given people more time and energy for learning and other positive
activities
3572
. But society now seems to have been spoilt by all this easy to unsustainably consume natural capital 3573 .
The consequences of the consumption of natural capital by Australia
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 year
2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 natural industrial production natural-wise industrial-wise production-wise material operational material-wise operational-wise
This figure roughly depicts what has happened. The major aspect of the development has been the construction of material capital at the expense of the natural capital, albeit inefficiently and only temporarily
3574
. The combination of the natural capital and the material capital has continually decreased due to wear and tear of the material capital combined with this inefficiency of the transformation and the operational costs involved. The industrial capital, however, has increased rapidly due to the
230

increasing know how and improved technology enabling better use being made of the natural capital 3575 . Thus the worth advantage (WA) curve illustrates the ability of humans to make what may be deemed to be worthwhile use of the depreciation of natural capital entailed in building up civilization. This is the progress that society is encouraged to believe in. There is reason to believe that the increase in WA has slowed down in recent decades and it may well have peaked, as depicted in the figure. This is because so much effort has in recent decades gone into building up the edifice of civilization that is not really worthwhile while the foundations have been allowed to deteriorate
3576
. The use of the fossil fuels has enabled the construction of this edifice – and the initiation of climate change. So some of the non-worthwhile constructs have come at a grievous eco cost. A case can also be made that social capital in Australia peaked decades ago but that issue is not being considered here.
It can be argued that the increase in industrial capital in Australia in the past century roughly offsets the resultant decline in the natural capital. Know how and technology can be deemed to have offset the deleterious consequences of using the natural capital. In fact, many people would argue that the life style so many people enjoy in this country is well worth what has been done to the environment. That is a myopic view. It does not take into account the facts that the industrial capital will need to use natural capital in the future for maintenance as well as operation while its availability is declining.
The general expectation of society, fostered by governance and business, is to believe that industrial capital will continue to increase along the lines of the upper, future curve (a) in the figure. That is, what is regarded as the material standard of living will
231

continue to increase even though some problems are emerging due to population growth and urbanization. That belief is a simple mistake. It is not possible. The natural capital curve for the future indicates why. Natural capital is declining at a rapid rate now but that rate cannot be sustained
3577
. The current slope is very high, due largely to the rapid use of the fossil fuels and fostered by population, consumption and infrastructure
3578
growth.
The rapid increase in fiat money and the inappropriate use of credit has just speeded up this rate of use of the limited natural capital. This rate cannot be sustained as capital becomes scarcer, as the future trend to the limit
3579
indicates. It is bound to follow a trend like that indicated by the (b) curve
3580
. This means that the rate of industrial capital development will also decline, especially as problems coalesce. Improved understanding and technology may affect the trend indicated by the (b) curve slightly but the problems will be exacerbated as long as population and consumption growth continue. It is quite likely that the social capital will also decline quite rapidly as people find it hard to come to terms with what ‘progress’ really now means as ecological forces exert their control.
WA is bound to decline too as resources have to be assigned out of the limited remaining capital to repair some of the crumbling infrastructure
3581
.
These curves roughly represent a stochastic 3582 situation, especially with respect to the future. The natural capital that has been used can be estimated quite accurately and the consequential material capital nearly as accurately. The industrial capital is even more stochastic as the definition of what is worthwhile or useful is quite subjective. The well off in the cities have very different views to the more realistic ones in rural communities.
It can be argued that the remaining natural capital is particularly stochastic. For example, drillings off shore in the North West shelf may enhance Australia’s limited reserves of
232

oil. That could shift the expected natural capital curve up slightly, (c), but this makes little difference to the nature of the prognosis. It may even inhibit the waking up to reality, so exacerbating the impact of other problems!
It would seem that the operations of society are being profitable
3583
if the rate of increase in industrial capital (the rate of return) exceeds the rate of decrease of natural capital (the eco cost). That is, the use of know how and technology amplifies the material capital increase rate sufficiently to make WA >> 1. There is a good case that current
Australian civilization shows an accrued profit because the efforts of the community over time have far outweighed the irrecoverable costs of using natural capital. But this profit should be written down by the commitment to maintain the deteriorating
3584 infrastructure during its lifetime in combination with the loss of useful know how
3585
. The reality then is that the current profit is gross profit and the net is that left after the write down
3586
. Some time in the future there will be insufficient natural capital left to enable the operation and maintenance of the declining material, so industrial, capital
3587
.
Eventually this capital will tend to zero as will the aggregated net profit
3588
. Australian
civilization will then have been a blip on the evolutionary time line that operated through
using up the limited natural capital available to it in combination with using natural income.
A natural question is what can society now afford with this view of the future reality. Know how and technologies in combination have enabled the construction of the infrastructure of civilization that has a high worth advantage by using up natural capital.
This enables many of the population to have a high material standard of living by consuming natural capital at a high, unwise rate. The cost has been the depreciation of
233

natural capital so the need is to make wiser use of what is left. Society will have to power down to do this but how much of the advantage has to be surrendered? How much of the worth of cities and associated infrastructure can be retained
3589
, bearing in mind that they have to be maintained as well as operated? The point is that people will not be able answer the question. It is ironical that civilization irresponsibly and unknowingly initiated an irreversible but unsustainable chain of events
3590
. Humans will now have to try and live with the consequences using blunted tools. Ecological forces are now belatedly taking control of the operation of the foundations of civilization. Economic forces have fostered the exuberant depreciation of the natural capital, so, ironically, the strengthening of the influence of the ecological forces
3591
. Civilization is running out of oil. It has already used over half of this natural bounty capital and adjusting to a declining supply will not be easy 3592 . The loss of climate familiarity and soil fertility will not help the necessary adjustment of food production for the loss of support provided by oil as population continues to grow. Pollution of land, sea and air will just exacerbates all the other problems, including the lack of potable water. The question that society should be addressing is what can be done to make the wisest possible use of the remaining capital, bearing in mind that natural forces really do control most of what will happen in the future. Will many of society be able to concentrate on using their particular skills because they can be confident that others
3593
can still meet their basic needs? That is very doubtful. The impact of the declining availability of natural capital is likely to trickle up so even the well off will become impotent in due course. It is ironical that for all its supposed value, money will continue to be impotent. It cannot change the course of the future although it can change the speed to destruction slightly. It has accelerated the rush
234

to this destruction very much this century, with the Asian giants taking over from the
Western powers in the race. Australia is just following this global trend as befits a faithful hound.

To sum up on what human society has done to the ecosystem. It has
Exuberantly used up, without paying, a high proportion of many irreplaceable natural resources (natural capital 3594 ) with (cheap) 3595 oil being the principal
 one been responsible for the production of many irreconcilable wastes
3596
that have degraded the ecosystem with greenhouse gas emissions having done the greatest damage by instigating an irreversible climate change
 degraded the biosphere to such an extent as to cause many species extinctions, primarily by usurping land for human purposes alone 3597 but also by disturbing the complex interactions
 built up a structure of civilization, particularly in cities, that cannot be maintained with the remaining natural bounty
We have focused here on what human activities have done to the ecosystem. Money, of course, has played a major part in the decisions but has had little influence
3599
on what has actually happened in the operation of this system
3600
.
Returning to our analogy, the current global situation is akin to the Mind saying it feels fine and wants to get on with its games
3602
whilst the health of the aging Body is declining and the symptoms are being largely ignored
3603
. Those treatments that are being proposed are largely weak palliatives
3604
. The Body is a cancer on Gaia and the Tumor grows while the Brain struggles. Gaia will be able to carry on at its usual leisurely pace after the cancer has been painfully expunged 3605 . It will slowly adapt to the perturbations inflicted by civilization
3606
.
Before summing up on the above examination, it is appropriate to clarify how this examination differs from others looking at the current situation. Richard Heinberg in his MuseLetter #179 / March 2007 entitled ‘Burning the Furniture’ provides an
235

indication, complete with figures, of the likely role of the fossil fuels in meeting future industrial energy demands. It takes into account the likely drop in the supply of oil, natural gas and coal. It also comments on the efforts to mitigate the impact of climate change. There is little doubt that it is a realistic contribution to that subject. Essentially it is forecasting the need for a power down due to the declining capability of the fossil fuels
to meet demand for electricity and for transportation fuels for the reasons detailed. It
arrives at a prognosis similar to that obtained here on these two problems. His case is open to a degree of refutation by skeptics, however, because he does not include the underlying physical reality summarized here by the Dependence on Nature Law and the fact of global entropic growth as a consequence. It can also be criticized for not including the increasing difficulty of maintaining the structures of civilization, particularly the cities, the consequences of drawing down on other natural capital like arable land, fertile soil and many raw materials. It also fails to address the problem of remedying some of the damage done to the environment.
We set out to examine what human activities have done to the operation of the ecosystem. The conclusion is quite simple really; a grossly expanded human society has blindly
3609
and unsustainably used and abused
3610
natural resources to provide unsound, transient material foundations
3611
to a myopic edifice on the Body of civilization
3612
. We have established that this degradation of the ecosystem has been because we have installed irreversible lifed systems
3613
without being aware of the consequences
3614
.
Additionally, these installations have provided a reinforcing feedback mechanism that has enabled the human population and the consumption of the lucky minority to grow exponentially. It has also enabled us to build up a temporary structure of our civilization that will be extremely hard to maintain, fix and adapt, where prudent, with the remaining natural bounty. Civilization has been unsustainably but unknowingly
3615
drawing down on this global natural bounty for millennia but the rate has increased explosively in the past century. Global entropic growth of the Body of civilization has become rapid and has probably peaked. Henceforth, it will be increasingly difficult to manage the draw down of the bounty to cover the operations, maintenance and remedial activities, particularly in cities, required for the aging Body.
236

It is appropriate to summarize the current situation in another way to aid in putting this dire situation into perspective. We will comment only on what has happened to the various facets of what human activities have done to the ecosystem and the rate at which this devastation is continuing. We will cover the global situation then examine how it varies for some specific communities.
The functioning of civilization is based on using three categories of natural resources. They are the exhaustible, the replenishable and the cycling ones. The first is unsustainable yet is being depleted at an irrational rate
3618
. The second sustainable only if the usage rate is less than the replenishment rate 3619 , but that condition is rarely met.
The third applies no inherent limitation, but there are associated problems 3620 . This functioning produces three categories of wastes. There are toxic wastes that perturb the operation of the ecosystem 3621 while others just cause logistics problems 3622 . Civilization has claimed much of the ecosystem to enable its functioning 3623 , so reducing the capability for the natural provision of goods and services
3624
.
Civilization now has the problem of prioritizing the usage of the remaining natural bounty 3626 between operations, maintenance of its Body structure 3627 , remediation of some of the damage done to the ecosystem
3628
, adaptation to the impact of the perturbed ecosystem
3629
and mitigation of this impact
3630
. The usage of the remaining natural bounty will slow down as the population declines, whatever the cause of that decline.
The scale of the impact of civilization on the operation of the ecosystem varies profoundly regionally for a number of reasons. The predatory communities are not so vulnerable to price signs of scarcity
3632
. Population has a varying impact because of the wide range of per capita use of the available natural bounty
3633
. This is exacerbated by the leverage
3634
that many communities have. This variation if also partially the result of the perverse set of values in many societies
3635
. It is fascinating, however, that those rich communities with appreciable know how may suffer seriously because they do not know how to get the basics
3636
.
This impact of civilization on the operation of the ecosystem is not sustainable. It is not, moreover, remediable. It can only be moderated by a major adjustment in many
237

aspects of the functioning of civilization. This will entail a profound change in the expectations of the populations in many regions
3638
.
Whilst considering what society has done to the operations of the ecosystem, it has been natural to consider what these activities have done to society. I have not delved into that subject although I have read a little about it. I know that much consideration has been given to that matter. Tainter, for one, has discussed the growing complexity and the corresponding reduction in the return for effort. The main point here is that the build up 3640 of know how 3641 is an important consequence of the consumption of natural bounty. Know how is an intangible that is not subject to natural laws. The acquisition of know how has been self-organization and self-regulation to a small degree only. It has made a major contribution to the continuing build up of the Mind of civilization, both the worthwhile
3642
and wasteful
3643
. So the past expenditure of the natural bounty has enabled the build of the ethereal Mind of civilization and the construction of the transient Body.
There has also been the rapid divergence in social diversity
3645
. It seems to me that there is a similarity between what is happening to the Mind of civilization, including the Tumor
3646
and the Brain
3647
, and the entropic growth of the Body, a cancer on Gaia.
The Mind shows increasing difficulty in handling its hallucinations.
Perhaps the most pernicious feature of some elements of modern society is the belief that the high rate of consumption of the natural bounty, without any regard to its depletion, is in some way indicative of the superiority of the consumers
3649
. They will continue to get more than their fair share of what remains – and complain mightily about any disruption to their dreams.
It is easy to be wise after the event
3651
! Nevertheless, it is instructive to summarize the mistakes
3652
that human society
3653
has made with respect to its use of the available natural bounty to build up the foundations
3654
of the Body of civilization. They include:
 fostering the belief that humans are in control ecosystem
3656
3655
of the behavior of the
 belief that humans are so clever that they can devise satisfactory substitutes and replacements for proven natural procedures, that have slowly evolved, without due consideration of the possible consequences
3657
238











 humanity has believed that it is morally 3658 and ethically acceptable to use up the limited natural bounty now
3659 belief in the delusion that monetary value is indicative of the intrinsic worth of a good, service or structure even though the true cost has not been appraised
3660 belief that economic growth is improving the lot of the community even when the material standard of living is higher for some than the ecosystem can afford, so clearly unfair and unsustainable 3661 inculcating the consumption paradigm
3662 accelerating the despoiling of land, sea and air and the associated biodiversity
3663
and geodiversity
3664
to directly and indirectly temporarily increase food production and over consumption in many communities consequential explosive, unsustainable population growth exuberant draw down of exhaustible and irreplaceable natural capital, including the fossil fuels and many raw materials, including the various metals that are so crucial in most innovative but unnecessary products
3665 fallacious belief in the ability of science and technology to provide sustainable means of supplementing and emulating the goods and services freely provided by evolutionary nature 3666 fallacious belief in the ability of science and technology to provide solutions to the problems that they have unknowingly created civilization has irresponsibly built up a vast transient infrastructure
3667
of buildings, manufacturing facilities, roads, rail, ports, airports, cars, ships, airliners, power, communication, waste, water, irrigation, sewerage servicing facilities
3668
that do not last long and require the commitment
3669
of an appreciable proportion of the remaining natural bounty for maintenance, demolition and possible replacement 3670 fallacious belief in many communities in the capability of society to continue to easily meet the basic needs, using exhaustible natural resources and the installed industrial machinery, so encouraging them to expend a high proportion of the remaining natural bounty on unnecessary wants.
239

To sum up, society has made the grievous mistake of irrevocably drawing down on the limited natural bounty at an unsustainable rate. It has appreciable momentum down this ruinous path yet will have to power down as the bounty becomes really scarce because the needs to sustain the Body grow
3672
. Those who have foreseen this dilemma have been ignored 3673 . The elite and powerful foster the belief in the continuation of economic growth paradigm. Most of the bourgeois are happy to go along with that delusion. Remedial action is not yet under way 3674 .
This means that the operation of society currently entails

 the flagrant use of non-renewable natural resources appropriation of much of the ecosystem for dedicated human use so degrading its adaptive capabilities
 unwise adaptation of natural resources for goods and services desired by the populace
 production of many toxic wastes that the ecosystem cannot cope with and this cannot continue despite the rhetoric and the efforts of that stupid species, Homo sapiens.
Civilization has generated a range of predicaments by its exuberant misuse of the available natural bounty. It will help to clarify the current situation by listing the major predicaments
3677
that society should now attempt to cope with
3678
. They include aspects of the organization of society as well as the material foundations of civilization that have been examined here.


There are too many people
Their belief that they have a right to use up the limited natural bounty is sophism that cannot continue

Industrial society has been built up by depleting the fossil fuels to such an extent that a decline in rate of supply is now inevitable, despite all the rhetoric
 to the contrary
Many of these people consume too much of the remaining natural resources for their own good and for the good of their descendents
240


Many of the irreplaceable materials essential in the manufacturing and construction industries will have to be substituted for by other irreplaceable materials as they become scarcer 3679 .



Many communities have developed an unsustainable dependence on energy slaves
3680
at the expense of using their own energy for satisfying activities, including aiding the ecosystem in the growing of food
Many communities have consumptive addictions
3681
that will be very hard to dispel
Many communities have irreversibly devastated much of the natural world
3682 that they seemingly admire and would like to retain
3683
, if the wisdom to do so

 can be found
There is a profound immutable division in global society
3684
that needs to be moderated so that the unproductive get basic needs while the most productive enjoy a satisfying but not wasteful life style
The widespread misperceptions about what is really worthwhile
3685
will have to be eliminated in order to ease the power down

The policy makers will have to gain understanding of the Dependence on
Nature Law so they appreciate that economic growth is warranted in very limited circumstances and economic decline
3686
is the primary way ahead, especially amongst the well off in urban regions

Civilization is not inherently a sound self-regulating system so there is a need for wise regulation
3687
and this is not provided by the free market
3688
forces of capitalism
3689

The belief that society has abilities and capabilities to overcome these predicaments is fallacious
3690
. The most we can really expect is to mitigate their impact in a declining economy
These are the current predicaments of human society. They are, themselves, unsustainable but they will cause profound changes to how our civilization operates in the future. We cannot turn back the clock.
241

We have concentrated on what has happened. It is natural, however, to reflect on how this growth in the abuse of the ecosystem has occurred and why. Humans have used their exosomatic powers to devise and implement the means of using up natural resources. The printed word facilitated the explosive growth of knowledge that led to the rapid development of the tools that are a characteristic of industrialized society. And money has controlled the use of these tools for the exploitation of the natural resources. These developments have fostered the belief that civilization will continue to progress because we are in control and we have the creativity, knowledge and tools to do this 3692 . Few understand that this belief is really a myth. The reality is that this ‘progress’ has devastated the ecosystem, which is the foundation of society. Capitalism 3693 has proven to be an effective means of fostering economic growth, without allowing for the consequences 3694 . But there is now good reason to believe it has gone way too far 3695 . Society has used the bounty of natural capital to enable explosive growth in food production. This has enabled the temporary explosive growth in human population 3696 . It has used the bounty of natural capital to provide energy slaves for many of this large population as well as powering the infrastructure 3697 . It has used its powers to unwittingly devastate its life support system 3698 .
There are many studies of the evolutionary behavior of humans. I do not believe we need to delve into these explanations
3700
to appreciate why society has gone down this path. The elite have chosen to manipulate the societal 3701 and natural scenario for their own short-term gains without concern for the wider consequences, mainly because they have known no better 3702 . It is in the nature of the beast to be greedy and there have been
242

no natural or societal feedbacks to constrain that greed
3703
. The elite follow the traditional objective of using their advantages
3704
to gain and control energy slaves
3705
while ignoring the devastation of their environment and the commitment to use remaining resources to maintain their artificial world. They do not think about the total continuing dependence of society on using natural resources 3706 . They are ignorant of, and could not care less about, the long-term effects on the ecosystem of the operations they foster, so long as they can leave a financial legacy 3707 after enjoying a resplendent life style. The masses just strive to make do and pick up crumbs where they can 3708 . Many take for granted that nature can continue to provide the basics
3709
, despite the damage their activities have done
3710
. This has been a developing characteristic of civilizations for millennia that has grown crazily in the past century under the impetus of money
3711
, information
3712
and technology
3713
driven by cheap
3714
industrial energy and fed by synthetic food
3715
. The financial system has gone out of control in the past decade. The conclusion is that modern civilization does not have a self-regulating system
3716 equivalent to what appears to have characterized
3717
the evolution of Gaia.
The consequence of this uncontrolled exponential growth of population, consumption of natural resources, devastation of the ecosystem and construction of massive city structures is an explosively complex chaotic system
3719
. The Body of civilization is a cancer on Gaia. It is unsustainable
3720
. Global entropic growth has possibly peaked. The bubble will burst
3721
in the near future, pricked by some unpredictable trigger
3722
. Society will have to pay a price for the past sins
3723
. The free lunch is over for most
3724
. The money tool will lose most of its power
3725
for the vast majority. The Tumor will not, however, die 3726 . It will continue to use its power to grow the cancer.
Doubtless many of you will question that prognosis. You will ask ‘What went wrong?’ You will think of the growing (material) prosperity in so many countries. You notice the booming
3728
share market
3729
. You see the prominence given in the media to growth of the super rich 3730 . You may have gained some understanding from the above discussion of the false premises
3731
underlying this apparent prosperity. Yet the evidence for the continuing boom
3732
seems so overwhelming that you have residual doubts
3733
.
There are so many apparently conflicting signs that you remain uncertain about the
243

prognosis
3734
. I would just remind you that civilization is totally dependent on irreversibly using the natural bounty
3735
. Remember that point. Using the natural bounty income is sustainable. Using up the natural bounty capital is not. There will be eighty six million fewer barrels of oil after today: that is a fact. The ups and downs on Wall Street today are due to the whims of people. The irrevocable draw down of natural capital is also due to the whims of people. They just do not realize what they are doing. As those irreplaceable natural resources become scarcer 3736 then society will simply have to make do 3737 . There only appears to be a dichotomy here. There is really certainty about the crumbling of the foundations of the Body
3738
and there is appreciable risk in the erection of the temporary edifice
3739
. Remember, there is a vast infrastructure to be maintained
3740 using some of the remaining bounty
3741
. It does not help that we have to learn to cope with climate change and the other consequences of pollution whilst trying to maintain an exceedingly wasteful urbanization. There are too many in a society that is addicted to unsustainable consumerism. The party is over and we will have a terrible hangover
3742
.
That is the simple fact. You accept your own mortality. Civilization has to accept that it has gone too far in using up the available natural bounty. It will now have to power down, using its cleverness
3743
to ease the pain as much as possible
3744
. Growth
3745
should be seen to be an unsustainable delusion and decline is now the real norm
3746
. Money will remain the dominating influence in the minds of most people
3747
and they will respond belatedly to price signals
3748
. The smart people will work
3749
at understanding the reality and then adjust proactively
3750
. But the powerful people will continue to use their leverage because they believe they have the right – to hog the remaining bounty.
244

This is a depiction of the life story of industrial civilization as Richard C Duncan sees it in "The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge”. He only looks at the major factor, industrial energy, but the expected trend is similar to what this essay indicates.
‘Gaia Atlas’ p288-291 has comments on the transition to a sustainable society that appears to be sound. It notes the trend towards responsible care of Earth’s resources. It, however, fosters unrealistic approaches including repairing the damage civilization has already done. It quotes the unbelievable treatment Paul Hawken and Amory and Hunter
Lovins propose in their book ‘Natural Capitalism’ 3753
. It does not take into account that technology cannot recreate the natural capital that has already been used up. It does not say how we can possibly maintain our cities while using most of the remaining natural bounty for subsistence. It does not touch on that very sensitive subject that there are already too many people. It does not elaborate on the cultural change that will be necessary
3754
.
We have covered the delusionary impact of economic forces on the real world of what human activities have done to the ecosystem. What about the other powerful societal forces, politics, globalization
3756
, nationalism, militarism
3757
, terrorism
3758
, wars
3759
, ethnicity and religious views? They will continue, like specialization and
245

societal diversity, to have a significant impact on the decisions made. They will doubtless influence when communities become aware of what they have done and how they power down. These factors, moreover, have often had influence on the geobiophysical reality of what has happened
3760
. We, collectively, have already irreversibly devastated out life support system. Some communities 3761 have just been more adept at this self-destruction than others. On the other hand, some communities
3762
will inherently be better able to cope because, for some reason or the other, they have not gone so far down the consumptive path.
It is clear to the informed that industrialization of civilization has created quite a number of insolvable predicaments. There is little recognition of this state of affairs and even less treatment. A natural question is what symptom of the holistic predicament is most likely to cause a widespread awakening and action and how soon? There is little doubt that the rapidly growing worries about climate change will cause a major variation in the mode and amount of electrical energy usage, particularly in the developed countries but they have sufficient resilience to cope without too much of a trauma. It is the poorer countries that will suffer most from the impact of climate change and their cries of despair will not be heard
3764
, especially as the well off will have to face up to the loss of their drugs, the fuels that power their material standard of living and the value of the dollar that gives the illusion of really being well off. Peak oil
3765
, accompanied by peak gas in North America and the EU, is almost certainly going to be the presage of an economic collapse that spreads from the U.S. This will doubtless over shadow the continuing battle by the less well off to obtain the basic needs
3766
. This global recession 3767 could be precipitated by any one of a number of events within the next few years
3768
. It is inevitable as the current value of money has an unsustainable distortion index 3769 . No amount of money can buy natural bounty that does not exist!
The general perception is that society has now got a high degree of order when the reality is that its foundations are inextricably crumbling due to the three identified factors that constitute the un-repayable eco cost 3771 . The questions are what went wrong and what is likely to happen now. The gulf between perception and reality is very wide and widening rapidly
3772
.
246

There are many learned views as to why civilization has gone off the tracks over the millennia and particularly in the past century. Knowledgeable people have commented on greed, the economic growth paradigm, cheap oil, fiat money and others even though their views have been cast aside by the powerful in their lust for more
3774
.
We have exacerbated this holistic problem by fostering the explosive growth of our species, at the expense of others. There is, however, one over riding factor, brought out in this essay. That is, we have been so deluded by our own cleverness that we have installed industrial mechanisms 3775 that use natural resources to build up the material body of civilization and provide the goods for society’s consumption without being aware of the deleterious consequences, the irrevocable draw down of the natural bounty. They evoke a horrendous eco cost. We have presumed that our synthetic measures can supersede the natural ones that have evolved over eons when they are really destructive. We have put in place a system that has seriously destroyed the capability of the ecosystem to support our standard of living. That is what went wrong.
Global entropy is increasing
3777
and the rate has increased very much in recent decades
3778
, primarily because the rapid increase in population is coupled with an increase in the consumption of natural resources by many people. The era of cheap oil has been a major factor in enabling this population growth, partly because it facilitated the Green Revolution, the increased production of food. It has also enabled the growth in individual consumption of wants
3779
.
There has been unbalanced resource depletion. This tends to vary appreciably from region to region
3781
but the outstanding global depletion is of oil. Substitutions will doubtless provide some measure of compensation for oil but they are much more difficult for aquifer water and fertile soil. And are we going to demolish cities to make more arable land available? There are many predicaments relating to food supply. The emerging conflict between food and fuel 3782 will only exacerbate that situation.
Food, air and water
3784
are the irrevocable basic life support requirements. The food provides the energy essential for body and mental operations. The most profound impact of human intelligence has been devising the means of obtaining industrial energy in vast amounts from another source and inventing the means of using this industrial energy to meet society’s expanding material needs and wants. It is deemed to be our
247

greatest achievement but that means the unintended consequences have been ignored, although there are signs of a rude awakening. Recognition of climate change is spreading rapidly from the knowledgeable to even the powerful
3785
. The era of food abundance is drawing to a close while the shortage of potable water is becoming serious in many regions.
It is quite likely that global entropic growth will peak in the near future. This peaking is likely to be a combination of a declining supply of exhaustible natural resources, particularly oil, further devastation of the environment by exacerbating wastes and degradation of the functions of the ecosystem, including climate change
3787
. Food
3788 and water supplies
3789
will no longer be adequate. It will be a manifestation of the reducing ability of the ecosystem to adapt to human activities
3790
. The reduced availability of natural resources will ensure a human die off, with starvation being a major contributor
3791
. It will ensure the demolition of much of the Body
3792
of civilization
3793
. It will destroy the affluence of many
3794
, particularly in the developed countries. The plague will play out in the not too distant future. It is noteworthy that fiscal policies
3795
, wars
3796
and other consequences of human decisions will not affect the developments in principle, only in detail with respect to location and timing.
Entropic growth is varying appreciably regionally. Australia is exporting its plentiful natural resources, coal, iron ore, uranium and the like to support a high standard of living – a high rate of consumption. This means that it is rapidly depleting the adequacy of the scarce natural resources, water and fertile soil
3798
. It could well be that entropic growth has peaked in this country. The major centres of population, the relatively big cities, are finding it increasingly difficult to manage water as their populations swell. The supply of food could well diminish shortly due to the combined influence of climate change, water shortage, soil degradation, inappropriate crops, resumption of arable land and diminishing oil supply 3799 . Yet the movers and shakers 3800 are still pushing for a greater population in the cities and for more industrial energy
3801
to compound the holistic predicament!
The current superficial signs are of a society steaming ahead with high economic growth. We know, after examining the reality of its materialistic development that current trends are not sustainable. A natural question is what signs are emerging that the
248

powerful in society are waking up to this reality and responding appropriately. The picture is inevitably fuzzy. It is hard to extract the sound views from the rhetoric. This problem is exemplified by the current attitude of business and many governments towards climate change. They had been skeptical of the warnings sounded out by climatologists for decades but they have suddenly switched to accepting that it is a danger to be addressed while striving to maintain economic growth. Some governments are fostering a global cut back in greenhouse gas emissions. Many businesses are aiming to seize the opportunities afforded by carbon trading. These weak, reactive moves are tending to harden the view that climate change will have a major impact on future operations of society. That is one misty view of the future. The view of the future of oil supply is no clearer. Governments and big oil clearly see the consequences of a declining supply of oil and they are pursuing strong mitigating policies but doing little to foster conservation and substitution for its use. There is virtually no sign of addressing the oil
depletion problem even though it will entail appreciable time and resources for adequate
mitigation. The narrow view of business in such matters is exemplified by the current frenzy in the U.S. to substitute ethanol production for growing corn feedstock. Car, airliner and ship building industries also show a narrow focus on the expected business as usual even though their products a very vulnerable to declining elements of the natural bounty. There are weak signs of the powerful waking up to the climate change and oil supply predicaments but no indication of tackling the over population issue. This slow and belated response of governments and business to the emerging predicaments can be attributed to a large extent to the lack of clear appreciation of the consequences of the path being traveled. This fuzziness is a consequence of prejudicial anthropogenic views combined with lack of understanding of how the ecosystem really operates
3803
. It is most unlikely that governments and business will put their weight behind strong mitigation action until forced to by circumstances. It would be unwise to wait for them to provide the leadership!
There are some Realists that see the demise of global civilization as the Sixth
Mass Extinction
3805
. That could well be the case but there is one major difference. The others were precipitated by traumatic geological events that essentially increased global entropy very rapidly. Ecological forces enabled Gaia to recover from these traumas at an
249

evolutionary rate
3806
. The human-induced trauma has increased global entropy very rapidly. We are again trying to (unknowingly and unwillingly) emulate nature. Doubtless there will be much speculation in coming years about how well Gaia is coping with the reduced capability. The reduction may well be insignificant but we will not be here to appreciate that! Gaia is bound to be much more tolerant than the Body of our civilization to what we have done. It has a proven record for self-regulation. Civilization has not!
We have omitted discussion of the role of economics in examining what human activities have done to the ecosystem. This has enabled us to look objectively at what has happened. It is natural, however, to want to have some appreciation of the part that economics has played in this catastrophe
3808
, so how it will need to adapt to the rapid aging of the Body of civilization. It is bound to continue to have a major, but very modified role in what happens in the future
3809
.
The First Law of Economics
3811
is purported to relate supply and demand
3812
by price. It presumes price rise will accurately reflect growing scarcity even when it is an exhaustible natural resource. This means the Law fails when the resource is depleted but that qualification is rarely recognized. The Law supposes that this price rise will encourage substitution
3813
. It is misleading dogma
3814
because it is essentially reactive to false signs
3815
. These include the presumption that satisfactory substitutes will be found and implemented in a timely fashion.
Economics is a measure of production that does not recognize that it is invariably associated with irreversible degradation of the environment and social dislocation
3817 while the production is often of wasteful stuff.
Money is the basic measure in economics. It is an abstraction 3819 . Nevertheless, it is and will remain a basic tool for the operation of society even though it has now completely lost touch with reality 3820 . But it is also a weapon used by the rich to foster decisions, good 3821 and bad 3822 , about what natural and synthetic (produced from natural) resources are used, so what happens to them
3823
. It assigns a value to the goods and services provided that currently very often bear little relation to the hidden eco cost entailed
3824
so the intrinsic worth. That is bound to change appreciably as the reality emerges that what are presently regarded as material assets are often seen to really be liabilities
3825
.
250

Originally money was used primarily for the exchange of goods and services but it slowly developed a life of its own – the monetary system was borne on the basis of debt and credit. It is basically a RFM so that those with money can lend to those without and charge interest on the loan. This results in the creation of money
3827
, as explained by Dr
Chris Martesan in ‘The End of Money’ http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/martenson/2007/0108.html
Inflation has meant that the value of money had retained some reasonable relation as a measure of the value of goods and services until this decade. The distortion index is soaring out of control. It is bound to crash shortly. This creation of money has enabled many to be involved in the depreciation of natural capital, very often for non-worthwhile purposes. They are unknowing helping to speed up the demise of what the ecosystem can provide for the operation of the Body.
It is ironical that society puts so much faith in the intangible money when, in actual fact, it is often so out of touch with reality. The Great Depression was not due to any lack of natural goods and services to meet the needs of the populace. It was due to the intrinsic lack of self-regulation in the financial market. It was due to speculation and unwise decisions by experts in the ‘dynamics’ of an intangible medium. It is truly a mental game despite the claims of its protagonists. Unfortunately, little has been learnt from the past so the financial market has grown into a large bubble to greet the new century. The Greatest Depression will be a consequence as the growing scarcity of natural bounty capital pricks the economic growth bubble. It will become clear to all, including the powerful, that ecological forces are winning the tug-o-war with economic forces.
There is quite breath taking irony in the common view that economic growth is a good when in actual fact it is accelerating the decline of the material foundations. Growth in the Western economies is now largely in the service industries and these do not entail a large eco cost. They have a tendency towards a high WoEC. On the other hand, China produces a lot of stuff for the rest of the world. Its economic growth is largely based on very low WoEC. China is now making a major contribution to the draw down of natural bounty capital and is starting to endure the consequences
3829
while their customers retain their high material standard of living – and their delusion.
251

There are informed people who have examined the role of capitalism
3831
in the recent unsustainable economic growth in many countries. They make a good case that cultural complexity is inhibiting further improvement
3832
. This view is consistent with the view here of the peak of entropic growth
3833
. These views, however, do not take into account the ecological limits 3834 to the operation of society brought out in this essay 3835 .
These limits undoubtedly contribute to the current state of society
3836
, even though even these informed people do not recognize that 3837 .
Government at every level aims to be viewed as guiding the progress of the community it is governing. It does this by making decisions about what is permitted. It regulates the operations of the community to a degree that varies appreciably from region to region
3839
. These decisions often favor the operations of the more powerful in the community
3840
. The important fact here is that these decisions are almost invariably biased by belief in conventional economics
3841
, which looks at only one side of the coin, the outcome
3842
. The eco cost is largely ignored
3843
. Government is supposed to be responsible for guiding the development of the community
3844
. They are almost invariably irresponsible because they know no better
3845
. And they are not held even belatedly accountable by the people in a democracy because the vast majority hopes that the envisaged progress is really possible
3846
. They believe the myths identified above
3847
.
There is appreciable discussion in financial circles about investment by various countries with strong economies
3849
in the USD. These countries effectively produce goods that they sell to the American consumers. They then invest the profits in the
USD
3850
. The commentators argue that this cannot continue and there have been signs in recent years that the producing countries are turning away from investing in the USD so it is falling
3851
. Let us now look at this situation from the perspective of this essay. The
U.S. is preying on these countries as they draw down on their natural bounty to produce the exported goods 3852 . This is a form of privatizing profit and socializing cost
(PP&SC)
3853
. It does not change the principle that regions are irrevocably drawing down on their natural bounty 3854 . It does, however, influence how worthwhile this draw down is for the prey countries.
The appreciable, disconcerting discussion about foreign exchange and the impact of market forces is really not surprising
3856
. It is completely consistent with the increasing
252

complexity of the dominating elements of the operation of globalized society. It is the result of increasing disorder. It is a consequence of global entropic growth.
Many corporations and firms are in the business of making a profit from their building of infrastructure, the production of goods or the provision of services. They react to market forces regardless of whether these forces are acting in the direction beneficial to the community
3858
and the environment
3859
. They therefore tend to look for opportunities within their sphere. They tend to operate in a competitive environment that encourages localized efficiency and false promotion of what they have to offer. These factors encourage motivation and innovation within their organizations in the specified direction. They encourage manipulation of the existing operational environment
3860
. They encourage investment where it is expected to make a short-term profit, so is unlikely to address the health of the Body. Businesses generally have a hierarchical structure that provides biased rewards for those who climb the ladder
3861
. This tends to inflate the financial cost of what they produce, but not the real worth. Increasing recognition of the collapsing situation and the requirement to realistically account for eco cost would doubtless improve the situation
3862
. Demand for the goods and services would still be a
major factor, regardless of its merit
3863
.
The consumers play a major part in how the economy operates today. Their striving for self-esteem by having worldly goods and enjoying services has a big impact on the demand
3865
. This demand will be markedly attenuated for the majority as actual prices soar
3866
. The many currently employed in providing unnecessary goods and services
3867
will lose power to maintain their life style
3868
. This trend towards reality would be fostered by discontinuation of the promotion of economic growth as a good by those in power
3869
, as they react to uncontrolled inflation.
Economic growth means that the fiscal value of the goods and services produced in a community is increasing 3871 . The value of the production is essentially the sum of the value of the natural resources used and the capabilities employed to convert the natural resources. The former consists of the materials used plus the energy required to drive the production operation. These elements invoke the irrevocable eco cost. The latter generally consist of the skills of the worker, the machinery they use and the infrastructure in which the production is carried out. These elements entail deferred and committed eco
253

costs. They provide the value added. These are accumulated in the community over time
and at an eco cost. Conventional economics presumes that the pricing of the industrial energy and materials used is realistically determined by scarcity. Ecological economics says that this pricing is not realistic but does not recognize that they are a major component in the irrevocable eco cost. They are a draw down on the natural capital 3872 .
The net result is that the use of natural resources in the production process is grossly under priced – for now. That will not continue as scarcity hits the markets 3873 .
The almost unbelievable irony is that economics sees value in producing goods without consideration of what they are used for and their ultimate destination – generally in a true toxic waste dump
3875
. The producer competes to meet
demand from the
consumer
3876
– encouraged by advertising. Economics is saying then that, in principle, it is good for the community to produce goods. The reality, however, is the antithesis.
Production of goods is costly of the ecosystem, so the community, so should be limited
3877
to those goods that are considered to be really worthwhile. The same applies to jobs. Those that really contribute to providing the basic needs of the community
3878 and maintenance of the environment should be the best rewarded
3879
.
There has been a trend in developed countries for an increase in the services provided compared to the goods produced
3881
. This trend has been driven by a number of factors, including that the demand for goods has been partly satisfied and that the community has higher regard
3882
for those who can contribute to the provision of services
3883
rather than getting their hands dirty in producing goods. The only thing wrong with that is that production of the basic goods
3884
is absolutely essential while the provision of many services is the ‘icing on the cake’. They are nice to have but their availability is dependent on the continuing satisfaction of the basics
3885
.
This satisfaction of the material needs of many has led to the explosive and uncontrolled growth of the very opaque financial market. It began, as usual, in some Western economies but has become a global phenomenon with the Asian giants making a strong play while the elite in most countries also indulge themselves. Foreign exchange now plays a very large part in this Mind game. The main players can take the provision of the necessities of life for granted as they endeavor to prove how clever they are in picking
254

winners in this paper chase! The recent growth of this game gives every impression of being disconnected from the reality that the materialistic foundations are crumbling. But this game is not as disconnected from the foundations that economists, governments, business leaders and most financial commentators believe. It is based on the false premise that the dollar value of so-called assets, including financial paper, constitutes real value.
The distortion index is growing uncontrollably. This means, for example, that many organizations have unrealistic commitments to pay out entitlements 3887 in the future. It
means that this intangible bubble must burst. The Greater Depression is inevitable with
the consequences being exacerbated by this out-of-control game. Unfortunately the main players will be immune to this disease.
In summary then, conventional economics is fallacious dogma
3889
that has encouraged the unsustainable devastation of the ecosystem by rapacious humans
3890
. It is a global phenomenon with different manifestations
3891
in the developed, developing and undeveloped countries
3892
with few exceptions
3893
. Future generations will have to pay a high price for this malfeasance. This dogma will only die slowly because vested interests will continue to obfuscate. It is a basic tenet of economics that market forces will ensure a balance between supply
3894
and
demand
3895
. The increasing scarcity of natural bounty
3896
will ensure rapid demand destruction
3897
.
It will help to get the situation into perspective by playing a hypothetical game
3899
. It could be set in 2050
3900
in an enlightened community
3901
that has a system that realistically counts the eco cost
3902
of all their ecological activities
3903
. That is, the cost of using natural resources throughout the lifetime of the system being used
3904
. It would be a community with a sense of collectivism
3905
, striving together. The community would recognize
3906
that they have a limited natural resource bounty available from
Gaia
3907
so the standard of living and future prospects
3908
depends on how smart they are in using this bounty
3909
. Its members would be aware of the impact of entropic growth on what they can use natural bounty for. This eco cost is un-repayable so the community knows it is 3910 using its inheritance 3911 . The annual eco cost would be the rate of draw down of that bounty
3912
, the ration they have used up that year
3913
. The government would have provided the estimate of what has been used, the GDD 3914 , to provide guidance on how the community is performing together with an estimate of what
255

remains. There can be circumstances where there was not a reduction in the remaining bounty. This is more likely in a rural community in which the levels in the reservoirs and the silos have gone up
3915
. The GDD would probably be less than the GDP because the latter includes the worth added by human skills, offsetting the entropy growth
3916
. It would be a matter of community pride to make a profit that way by being smart and frugal. It would have adopted the ‘clean and green’ philosophy.
The costing mechanism would include quite a high allowance for the draw down of the irreplaceable resources
3918
, like oil, aquifer water, fertile soil and for the environmental impact of emissions, pollutants and toxic wastes 3919 . The aim would be to have the decline rate of the irreplaceable resources to be less than the depletion rate to ensure continuing supply 3920 . It would account for any further degradation of geodiversity 3921 and biodiversity, although this would be avoided where feasible. It would allow for remedial action where the eco cost was considered to be justified 3922 . It would account for the environmental disruption caused by the irreversible climate change
3923 and other impacts of pollution
3924
. On the other hand, for example, permaculture and collected rainwater incur no eco cost so are encouraged. The use of natural systems like wood from forests incurs a cost
3925
if it exceeded the realistic
3926
replenishment rate
3927
.
They would have decided a ration of forest products that can be afforded in the prevailing conditions
3928
. Valuable mind games for education
3929
, cultural development and entertainment incur little eco cost and so are encouraged. They could continue so long as the foundations of the community were sound, so some of the bounty remains. There is a realistic component cost accounting
3930
so that, for example, the environmental impact of a wind farm is realistically weighed up against that of a coal-fired power station
3931 supplying the same amount of electricity
3932
. Energy conservation by good design
3933
and sound practices would be an established principle. The production of food rather than biofuels
3934
for cars
3935
will be seen to be a moral question.
Business
3937
would be operating in an environment reflecting the true cost of the resources used, including labor
3938
. They would be faced with the challenge
3939
to make a reasonable profit by producing goods and services worthwhile to the consumer
3940
. The only difference from the existing arrangement is that they would be faced with the real eco costs
3941
of producing the goods and services and taxed inversely proportional to the
256

worth of their product
3942
. Excessive profits would be taxed to return some to the community
3943
. Market forces would aim towards economical use of natural resources.
There would be none of the existing hidden subsides
3944
. None of the business costs would be socialized. The businesses would not be able to afford the hierarchical type of structure of today
3945
. They would not be able to make a profit by having CEOs doing nothing more than yelling orders and using natural resources. Regulation would inhibit the growth of companies producing goods of marginal worth. The most important change is that business would take pride in serving their community to the best of their ability 3946 .
Money would fill its traditional role but it would be more closely representative of the real worth of the natural bounty used and the contributions made by the workers, at all levels. Investments and speculation would be quite rare as few would be wealthy enough for these indulgences.
Banks would be public instrumentalities to provide the necessary monetary services at a price covering employment and operating costs only.
All the basic services 3950 would also be provided by public utilities. This would be to eliminate the need for economic efficiency at the expense of the pragmatic resilience these services should have. Staff pride would ensure their effectiveness.
Individuals would be operating in an environment where it would be very difficult to save, as few would have an income
3952
appreciably greater than the cost of the necessities of life
3953
. Healthful eating
3954
would be a common objective using locally grown food
3955
in the main. A progressive consumption tax would discourage wasteful use of natural resources and encourage the development of personal skills
3956
to compensate. Few would be able to afford children
3957
. Care for the aged would not be a predicament, as many previously non-productive jobs
3958
would have disappeared. A more reasonable balance between labor and automation would develop as the cost of using scarce resources for the machinery escalated. It would tend to be a more egalitarian society
3959
with the better off being those with more to offer the community
3960
. It would be based on the principle that everyone has the right to sustenance
3961
but higher contributions to the operations of the communities are rewarded
3962
. This would motivate people to acquire valuable skills, most of them aimed at providing the necessities of
257

life
3963
. At the same time, each person would be expected to make some contribution, generally by being employed
3964
.
Science and technology would be focused on the means of making the most worthwhile use of natural resources
3966
. This would preclude providing substitutes for natural measures unless there was a very clear case of being better worth for the eco cost entailed
3967
. There would probably be little scope for advancing the frontiers of science, as the community would see more worth in satisfying the fundamentals at a lower eco cost.
The role of government in providing community services would be essentially unchanged 3969 but the pressure would be on them 3970 to make sound decisions 3971 , bearing in mind the scarcity of natural resources 3972 , and the awareness of the community of these limits 3973 . A better balance could be expected because the community would be trying to mimic the self-regulation of nature 3974 .
The community weighs up the value placed on needs
3976
(sustenance, shelter, transportation, care, education, law and order and social activities) and wants
(unnecessary travel, excessive home heating and cooling, luxurious goods and services) realistically against the respective costs. The use of resources is weighed accordingly. It may well decide to do without some of the wants to spin out the bounty whilst providing equity
3977
. Employing specialized knowledge and skills
3978
would reduce the costs for some worthwhile items. Carefully weighed
3979
up technology may supply some viable alternatives to existing natural systems. Reusing would increase the worthwhile lives of some goods and materials.
The community would engage in trade to import unavailable resources and goods produced from resources unavailable to it where this trade is judged to be worthwhile
3981
.
It would export resources and goods produced using resources where it has an excess of these particular resources. This is the traditional approach to trade but the emphasis would be on the eco costs of the imports and exports and their worth to the community.
There is also a developing trade in wastes. Imports and exports must overall balance out.
A community that has more imports of resources and exports of wastes than vice versa is
258

essentially a predator. There can be a tendency to restore balance by immigration
3982
. A prey exports more resources and imports more wastes than vice versa. There can be a tendency towards balance by emigration. Predators cannot continue to exist without the preys they can feed on.
The community, even with a sound assessment of worth against eco cost for all activities, will incur an un-repayable eco debt. Its bounty will be reducing continually. Government will be able to regulate the power down to some extent by increasing the cost of using natural resources as they become scarcer. This continuing use of exhaustible resources is an unsustainable process. This is the grim reality. This is the reality that a number of previous civilizations had to face up to as they died off. Can we show greater wisdom by coming to grips with that reality? Who knows what we can do to mitigate the decline?
This hypothetical community is addressing the holistic predicament. It has forsaken the
Industrial Revolution for the Earthly Revolution. Can actual communities do the same? It would require a tremendous cultural change, especially amongst the well off
3984
. A realistic power down would be inhibited if some started off in life with a pronounced financial advantage together with the mental disadvantage of believing in economic growth
3985
.
The power down of such a hypothetical community would be extremely difficult if there was little potential, if the remaining bounty was limited. This is already the case for most global communities. It would be more feasible for countries like Cuba and Finland. It
would take time and a major cultural change to vary the direction of development. The
Earthly Revolution would have to become a popular ideology. The power down would also be associated with a population decline
3987
.
The irony is that this sound community could well have predicaments because of natural forces out of its control. Cuba is doing enough to survive but climate change could well mean that it will become subject to more numerous, stronger typhoons.
There is a conundrum, as well. Suppose our hypothetical community implemented the program discussed above. They would have reduced their draw down of the natural capital. What is to stop another community saying thanks and doing nothing or even
259

worse, increasing their draw down to improve their standard of living at the expense of others
3990
. This greedy approach has characterized human civilizations for millennia but has worsened appreciably in recent times, fostered by neo-liberalism. It has a major manifestation in the competitiveness of business
3991
. The rich, people and countries, take pride in using the manipulative power of their weapons
3992
to misuse the workers and abuse the environment to boost their egos. The developed countries proudly point out how good they have been in raising their standard of living, partly by abusing resources from the undeveloped countries. The developing countries are trying their best to emulate the developed countries, but they are bound to be disappointed!
Greedy communities, however, have a limited capability to reduce the eco cost of their operations by importing natural resources from other communities. Fertile soil effectively cannot be transferred save by annexation. The transfer of water is also very limited but not so much 3994 . It can be done in some cases by denial of access. It can be done to a limited extent by selection of the food imported
3995
. These measures would reduce the eco costs a little. But the greedy community would still be drawing down on its natural capital but not as rapidly if perchance its consumption did not grow – which is very unlikely
3996
.
Cities are innately greedy communities
3998
. They are dependent on the importation of food, water, industrial energy and other natural resources just to meet essential needs, much less their extravagant wants
3999
. Their operations come at an appreciable eco cost even though these are reduced by importations of goods. They are essentially predators embedded in the wider community, the region, the country and globally. Their parasitism has been enhanced by the temporary availability of cheap industrial energy and is still growing with the rural to urban migration
4000
. Their rapid growth is making a major contribution to the unsustainable entropic growth. They are inherently vulnerable
4001
but it is most unlikely that the rich city folk will bare the brunt of the economic decline.
Rural communities fill the vital role of providing the food for all, including the predatory urban communities. Their perceived value declined with the increased
260

artificiality of food production brought on by the Green Revolution. This accelerated the rural emigration. A reversal of this trend can be expected following peak oil
4003
but that will only be a palliative move. Urban over-population will make food supply a critical issue
4004
. Climate change
4005
may well exacerbate this predicament in many regions
4006
.
There are, however, a few countries
4008
, cities
4009
, communities
4010
and organizations aiming for a more sustainable way of life already
4011
. They are tending to behave like our hypothetical community. They are setting a good example but it is extremely doubtful whether that will slow the global economic decline appreciably.
Support and encouragement of these pioneering efforts can help to slow down the momentum of economic growth 4012 .
We now have some understanding of what human activities have done to the operation of the ecosystem. These activities have had a number of major unintended consequences that we now appreciate to a degree. There is no turning back the clock. The damage has already been done. This understanding does, however, enable us to propose here a range of possible mitigation measures. This proposal presumes the emergence of sufficient wisdom to provide the force to drive these measures together with an estimate of GDD and the remaining natural bounty to provide guidance. Each of these measures can be expected to make a contribution to reducing entropic growth but the amount is likely to vary appreciably from region to region. It is clear, however, that a range of measures are required so that in combination a realistic power down
4014
can take place.
These measures relate to population, industrial energy, food, water and other goods and services but are all basically inter-related.
Industrial civilization is a massive edifice with a crumbling Body but an unaware
Mind with a damaging Tumor and an ineffective Brain
4016
. The Body has inertia so its momentum
4017
will not be redirected easily. Wakening the movers and shakers to the
nature of the predicament will take time . Getting effective action will also take time and
use up some of the remaining natural bounty. These mitigation measures are likely to be largely responsive to the developing crisis and will require an extraordinary culture change
4018
, especially amongst the currently well off in the developed and developing countries 4019 .
261

This culture change will require the change in the mindset of many
4021
. It will require a degree of re-education. It will require changing from believing in economic growth to understanding entropic growth
4022
. It will not be easy, especially for those already enmeshed in a consumptive life style. It could well embrace the young guiding their elders.
It is essential that population peak
4024
and start to decline as soon as possible
4025
.
It should be facilitated by humanitarian measures as much as achievable 4026 . It will occur naturally but mitigation measures can soften the blow in some regions. Regional population decline can be facilitated by migration from resource poor regions to resource rich ones
4027
. This includes emigration from urban to rural communities
4028
.
Many regions are very dependent on using industrial energy, much of it wastefully. There is clear scope to reduce this energy usage in many communities
4030 without affecting the quality of living
4031
. This reduction in usage is most likely to be fostered by the depletion of the supply of oil and inhibition of using coal
4032
because of its impact on climate change
4033
. It will be facilitated by measures
4034
, like GDD, taking better account of their impact on the ecosystem
4035
. It seems quite likely that appreciably more substitutes for oil and coal will be needed to ease the power down. A number of alternatives are being proposed
4036
, including nuclear power
4037
. It is most desirable that
these measures are complemented by a decline in industrial energy demand coming partly
from the declining population in urban areas
4038
but mainly through widespread understanding
4039
aided by GDD guidance.
There are powerful forces in governments and industry that aim to maximize the regional access to natural resources, particularly oil and gas but often water, mainly by importation. This competition for resources is globally counter-productive
4041
. Yet the predatory communities show few signs of the compromise and restraint 4042 that could ease the situation 4043 .
There is some scope for variation in quantity and mix
4045
of food demand that, nevertheless, is closely coupled to the population. Export from rural areas is necessary to supply people in the urban regions. The major requirement here is to try and maintain supply as the artificial support for food production, distribution and storage declines
4046
.
The decline in fish catch does not help
4047
. Localization of food production and supply
262

will undoubtedly be one of the effective measures
4048
. It is quite likely that climate change will reduce supply in some regions
4049
, either directly or due to the impact on the supply of water. Declining soil fertility and land availability
4050
will also reduce supply.
The emerging food-fuel competition
4051
is unlikely to help
4052
!
Water supply is a developing predicament largely due to population growth and
the precautionary principle should be borne in mind in relation to the possible impact of
climate change. Water is so essential to so many operations, including food growth, that measures to improve storage, reticulation, reuse need to go with re-assessment of the priorities of usage
4054
in order to avoid escalation of the crisis in many regions
4055
.
The production of goods and services
4057
mainly occurs in urban areas where worth is added to the imported raw materials using industrial energy and human skills.
Measures
4058
are needed to markedly reduce the
demand for unessential goods and
services
4059
. There is also the need to sensibly reduce wastes
4060
and to sensibly handle those produced
4061
. This reduction in the natural bounty being expended on luxury items needs to be coupled with the maintenance of what have become reasonable essentials of modern living, including much basic technology
4062
.
A tremendous amount of infrastructure has been built up over the years, particularly in developed countries and in urban areas. This has entailed an implicit commitment of resources for operation, maintenance and then demolition
4064
and possible replacement
4065
of these lifed facilities. This commitment needs to be prioritized with respect to the other measures for use of the remaining natural bounty. There are suggestions that more effective use can be made of established urban areas
4066
. These proposals are unlikely to withstand scrutiny when the eco costs are taken into account 4067 .
They will be palliatives at best.
Specialization has led to many career paths in the cities that are not sustainable as they contribute to the consumption fetish 4069 or the delusion of progress 4070 . For example, many of those in the automotive and airline industries will be looking for other jobs and this will often require re-training entailing an eco cost. It will necessitate a cultural change that recognizes the worth of those who contribute their skills to providing the basics – like food.
263

It is now widely appreciated that human activities have devastated many aspects of the geodiversity and biodiversity of the ecosystem
4072
. Remedial measures are in many cases necessary for the continuing operation of even a powered down society. This requirement needs to be balanced against the other requirements to use natural bounty.
Only some of the requirements can be met. The essential point is that some sort of balance should be strived for
4073
. It seems that a roughly balanced natural ecosystem
4074 evolved by means that we humans do not completely understand. It will surely tax our collective wisdom to try to emulate nature to some degree in that regard, bearing in mind how our installed Body of civilization has perturbed the ecosystem
4075
. Our record to date has been abysmal.
Doubtless you will be wondering what you and your family and friends should do to cope with the coming power down. This, of course, will depend appreciably on your location and circumstances. There are two sides to this question, outlook and actions.
Appreciation of what has actually happened to the operation of the ecosystem, including civilization, will provide you with a powerful tool for making wise decisions. It should have tempered your expectations of what you can consume. It should have increased your sense of responsibility to contribute to operations of society by being smart and by doing rather than having. You will encourage the acquisition of real assets, like small, welldesigned homes. You will discourage having liabilities like dependence on cars.
Nine essential elements of the power down process have been identified. The question now is, what of the future
4078
? What is the prognosis?
Prognosis for the holistic predicament
The natural question when looking at this reality is what will happen in the future? We have a Body of civilization that is rapidly aging 4080 while the Mind is largely ignoring the fact
4081
as it chases its hallucinations
4082
. In fact, there is reason to believe it has a Tumor stimulated by money
4083
. That analogy does sum up the broad situation. The signs are there for those few
4084
prepared to look
4085
. Global population
4086
is exploding
4087
. The financial market
4088
has gone mad
4089
. So has the consumption of natural resources
4090
.
Climate change is under way
4091
and mitigation efforts lack credibility
4092
. There is
264

increasing recognition of the need for societal adaptation
4093
to its impact
4094
. Species are becoming extinct at phenomenal rates
4095
. Desertification
4096
and de-forestation
4097
are out of control
4098
. The point is that we have one huge, holistic predicament, a malaise of the Body of our civilization together with devastation of its host, Gaia
4099
. The above items are interdependent 4100 symptoms. The irreversible draw down of the natural bounty cannot continue
4101
. We can substitute
4102
in some cases
4103
but that, at best, only eases the situation 4104 while encouraging complacency 4105 . We continue to come up with solutions that just generate predicaments elsewhere 4106 . We have already done irreparable harm to the ecosystem
4107
. Much of society has gone crazy
4108
. Civilization is in the early stages of an inevitable collapse
4109
. We now have to adapt as best we are able so as to power down
4110
.
A natural question is what symptoms are most likely to awake society at large to the reality that the Body of civilization is senescent and that Gaia is losing the ability to cope with society’s exuberance. We are familiar with the term ‘tipping point’ as some traumatic change that may occur some time in the future. The current widespread awareness of climate change can be regarded as a tipping point in societal understanding.
Yet it is only one symptom. This essay has aimed at providing some indication of the range of symptoms
4112
so there is essentially no uncertainty about the World’s
Predicaments. Widespread recognition of that reality will only come about when a number of symptoms have hit hard.
There are a number of programs tackling major global predicaments like poverty
4114
, lack of potable water
4115
and sanitation
4116
, impact of diseases
4117
like malaria
4118
and AIDS
4119
. Many of these are under the UN umbrella
4120
. They give the impression of being humanitarian and are now receiving support from prominent philanthropic people
4121
. However, they clash with the over-population issue
4122
.
Consequently, they are ineffectual palliatives only.
The renowned scientist, James Lovelock
4124
of Gaia fame, considers
4125
that we should look to nuclear
4126
to provide clean
4127
power necessary as we try to cope
4128
with global warming
4129 . He, like most other ‘informed’ commentators, has little to say 4130 about one of the major results of society’s over-indulgence, over population 4131 . This is
265

easy to understand, as it is a very sensitive issue
4132
. There is a lot of talk about human rights
4133
but little about human responsibilities
4134
. Bringing a child into being involves a commitment to an un-repayable eco cost. This cost can be very high in many niches of society
4135
. Tackling only one of the symptoms of the cancer, industrial energy supply 4136 , is most unlikely to ease this holistic predicament 4137 . In fact, it could well exacerbate the population predicament by de-emphasizing its influence on the holistic malaise 4138 . There are also indications that it will not contribute significantly 4139 to mitigation of climate change 4140 .
A number of Cassandras lay out their plans for the future of a sustainable
4142 society
4143
partly based on a misperception
4144
about how the current situation arose
4145
.
They are generally based upon ignorance of the
Consequence Axiom . For example,
Bossel states ‘All energy 4146
must be renewable, all materials recyclable’. This is a common assertion. It implies that all the (physical) industrial energy used by the operations of society must be obtained from the energy income, insolation, directly or indirectly (hydro
4147
, wind, PV etc). He presupposes that the energy capital will have been exhausted in this future civilization, which can then make do with harnessing insolation, a very dubious assumption
4148
. But the assertion that all materials must be recyclable
4149
is clearly fallacious
4150
. So we have the extraordinary situation where
Cassandras point out the fallacy of a civilization based on the economic growth paradigm, so advocate a sustainable civilization based on another fallacious assertion, that the natural resources used by this civilization are all replenishable
4151
.
It is very hard on the populace when seemingly knowledgeable people make assertions about technical aspects of contentious issues that are, to put it kindly, incorrect
4153
. Most people with a reasonable degree of education take what politicians say
‘with a grain of salt’ and look elsewhere for a degree of confirmation or otherwise. They also know how to regard what business leaders have to say. It is a lot harder, however, when scientists and technologists espouse contrary views. It is almost unbelievable when a consensual view held for years proves to be in error. The scientists only recently have warned about the deleterious impact of using electricity and fuels to power modern society. We now have to belatedly adapt to climate change. Yet that is the bewildering
266

situation today
4154
. The economic growth paradigm is supposed to be a sign of progress when, in reality
4155
, it is indicative of increasing success in ravaging the ecosystem
4156
.
There is a very sound article
4158
on the way society needs to go to ensure the rights of all in concert with a balanced natural environment. It certainly contains many good objectives. However, it does not recognize how far society has already gone down the wrong track. It is over optimistic about what can be achieved with the limited remaining natural bounty 4159 , even if the desirable cultural change should come about in a timely manner 4160
. It recognizes the need to embrace the precautionary principle without
noting the damage that has already been done by ignoring it. It does, however, provide a useful basis for discussion of what can reasonably be done in a power down. It can make a contribution to the Earthly Revolution.
Heinberg in the Chapter ‘Managing the Collapse’
4162
speculates sensibly on the way ahead for industrialized society with the decline in the availability of cheap industrial energy
4163
, but there is appreciable uncertainty in his prognosis because he does
not take into account the influence of the Consequence Axiom . There is little doubt that
the unavailability of oil will hit the developed countries
4164
but it is clearly a mistake to just focus on the fossil fuel symptom alone
4165
. It encourages the belief that providing alternative sources of industrial energy
4166
is the main challenge
4167
. Few would question his view that a major cultural change
4168
will be necessary
4169
to alleviate the difficult times ahead
4170
. Decision-making will be made more difficult by the uncertainties about the locations
4171
and forms
4172
of the worst features of climate change. And, of course, over population
4173
will remain on the back burner because it is too sensitive
4174
!
Monbiot in ‘Heat’ provides a comprehensive statement of means to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions, so reduce the likelihood of climate catastrophe. Many of the measures are quite innovative but appear to have a sound basis 4176 . He believes regulation 4177 and rationing would be necessary but sees no reason for a dramatic decline in the quality of living
4178
. It would entail appreciable cultural and structural changes. It is possibly optimistic about how much of this program can be achieved but only time will tell. It certainly makes a contribution to the dialogue about what should be done to mitigate climate change. It does not, however, address the predicaments of an increasing
population with a decreasing natural bounty. Nor does it address an increasing demand
267

for industrial energy as the supply dries up, a rapidly growing bone of contention
amongst business people who have no understanding of the Consequence Axiom
4179
.
It is fascinating that these discussions about how society will need to operate to mitigate the predicaments it has created completely ignore one crucial aspect, how to maintain even some of the existing structure of civilization. Cities and their infrastructure require a lot of maintenance. Many of those magnificent buildings that are commonly regarded as being assets will become unsustainable liabilities 4181 . Some disintegration is bound to occur because of the lack of natural bounty.
We do not have much control of what happens in our body when we decide to do things
4183
. But we do have control over what we decide to do, within known physical limits
4184
. Our decisions to have rather than do could be largely reversed
4185
. Our decisions to strive to reach for the sky could be turned to strive to shore up the foundations of civilization
4186
. We could use the power of money to drive the beneficial
4187
rather than the wasteful
4188
. We could use the power of capitalism
4189
to make the best possible use
4190
of ecosystem resources
4191
. We could make market forces
4192
act in the direction that benefits the Body of civilization and slows the crippling of Gaia. This means that Big Business
4193
will have to exert their power in worthwhile directions
4194
. We could use trade to benefit both communities rather than the predator alone
4195
. The leaders of communities can move to prevent predatory communities from grabbing their natural resources
4196
. The health of Gaia is largely out of our hands now
4197
. But we could do more if we improve the health of that part of its Mind concerned with Body care
4198
. That is the challenge
4199
to be met
4200
. It could leave the rest of the Mind free to play its cultural games 4201 .
Can we wise up? We can mitigate the decline to some extent if we put our Mind to it 4203 . But we have to pull our head out of the sand 4204 and look realistically at the damage we have done already 4205 . It will require a major cultural change 4206 . The talents of the motivated need to be pointed in an ecocentric direction
4207
. The irony is that would be a form of altruism because looking after the provider of the basics 4208 is good for everyone, so long as there are not too many consumers and they limit their wants!
The above comment about the holistic predicament
4210
applies to the global community at large. It does not take into account the dominant part the powerful elite
268

plays in the Mind games
4211
. Policy makers appear to be making reasonable decisions without really appreciating the fiasco they are endorsing
4212
. The corporate chiefs will continue to play their games
4213
even as the vast majority has to pay the price
4214
. After all, they have been successfully playing versions of this game since the dawn of civilization 4215 . A major factor in this dominance could well be that having others to do
the manual labor for them has given them the time and (intellectual) energy for learning
to play the this abstract game 4216 . This has given them the intellectual power to take and maintain control. Inheritance has played a major role 4217 . And they have taught the media very well
4218
! The industrial revolution was enabled by cheap industrial energy. It also enabled more freedom of thought
4219
for many more people
4220
. This has contributed to the exponential increase in information, even some knowledge
4221
but certainly almost no wisdom
4222
. The Mind of civilization has expanded tremendously so there are more hallucinations
4223
. There really is tremendous potential
4224
to address the predicaments our activities have created but realization of that potential is dependent on many understanding what we have already done
4225
and having sufficient power to implement improvement measures
4226
despite the rectitude of those who gain from entrenched systems
4227
. We have so reduced the carrying capacity of the ecosystem by overpopulation
4228
, over-consumption
4229
and indebtness
4230
that our operations are now critically dependent on wiser use of the remaining natural bounty
4231
. That is making decisions
4232
just that more difficult
4233
.
The elite may not understand the realities
4235
referred to here but they have doubtless had an intuitive grasp
4236
of how to manipulate
4237
the working of society to foster their well being 4238 . They have developed this ability for millennia! They have been helped by the unthinking adulation
4239
of most of the prols
4240
. Money has provided a reinforcing feedback mechanism that has increased their power 4241 . They will continue to hallucinate 4242 until the Bodily ill health of civilization and responses by Gaia does make mockery of their delusions
4243
. One of the most unfortunate aspects of this is the expansion and globalization 4244 of the well off who seek to grow wealthier by playing their money games
4245
. The grotesque wealth of the expanding number of billionaires will have little direct impact, as there is a limit to the natural resources they can consume. But they do set a bad example. Many of the middle classes try to emulate them, so
269

accelerating the draw down of the natural bounty. The housing bubble
4246
in developed countries is one manifestation of this particular cancer. The irony is that the explosive growth of the fiscal games has got out of control in the past decade and any of the bubbles could burst at any time
4247
. Our civilization has been in the self-destruct mode for
centuries but it is now reaching a crescendo. The Greater Depression could start at any
time and the population die off become more apparent as it spreads from parts of Africa and Asia 4248 . The predicament of providing and maintaining services for burgeoning cities is growing rapidly. There are already signs of disintegration to exacerbate the problem with declining natural bounty
4249
. Affluence destruction is likely to hit a high proportion of the well off population in the developed and developing countries
4250
.
The powerful and elite are in a number of camps. Doubtless they will continue the historical battle
4252
to acquire diminishing natural resources
4253
but on a much grander scale
4254
and, as ever, with little understanding of the basis of civilization
4255
and little
4256 respect for Gaia
4257
. Relations and trade will doubtless continue to dominate discussions
4258
. The Western powers have dominated the consumption orgy
4259
in recent centuries with America hegemony
4260
in the van
4261
. However, they now have to meet the developing challenge from an empowered competition
4262
. The Shanghai Cooperation
Organization
4263
seeks to take over
4264
the hegemony role
4265
from the declining U.S.
4266 while the EU consolidates
4267
their secondary role
4268
. The developing competition
4269
for the remaining oil
4270
and gas
4271
could well lead to more conflict
4272
. The Asian giants seem determined to catch up
4273
and to hell with the consequences
4274
. Meanwhile, the undeveloped countries
4275
are going backwards
4276
partly because of the predatorial activities of the rich countries 4277 and their emissaries 4278 . There is bound to be growth of opposition
4279
by those disadvantaged
4280
by the prior disastrous activities of the elite
4281
.
These machinations are unwittingly contributing 4282 to the rapidity of global entropic growth 4283 so speeding up the decline in the health of civilization’s Body for no really useful purpose
4284
. It is ironical that these resource wars
4285
are reducing the capabilities of all protagonists to cope 4286 . The growth of the cancer on Gaia is seemingly out of control
4287
. And the Tumor is clearly getting worse
4288
.
It is quite clear that communities have reached different stages in their entropic progression, their draw down of the natural bounty, so the associated rates of demise. The
270

Body of the U.S. has reached a high state of development, partly because of its rich natural resources endowment but largely because of the strong entrepreneurial effect. It now uses the depleting natural bounty at such a very high rate that major mitigation predicaments are very likely. Its entropic growth has most likely peaked. By way of contrast, the Body of Finland has not reached as high a stage of development but the rate of depletion of the natural bounty is appreciably less than for the U.S. It is unlikely that their entropic growth has peaked. They will, consequently, have more time and capability to adapt to global economic decline.
A crucial factor here is that regardless of the reasons, communities have an established system and manner of operation. This currently entails a draw down of the natural bounty for operation and maintenance and, in some instances, replacement of elements of the system. A change in direction will become necessary as the current system is seen to be unsustainable. This will necessitate conversion of elements of the existing system
4291
that will take time and entail appreciable eco costs
4292
. The cultural change will not be easy to foster and accommodate.
Wind up
I must therefore end on a realistic but sour note
4294
. The response to the developing catastrophe is likely to continue
4295
to be dominated by the elite
4296
, the distortion of money
4297
, faith in the technobubble
4298
and the common desire
4299
for the delusionary material wealth 4300 . Most businesses will tend to follow their vested 4301 interests 4302 without due regard for the ecosystem and so civilization
4303
. The blind striving
4304
for energy security 4305 is likely to conflict with mitigation of and adaptation for climate change 4306 . The greed, selfishness and blindness 4307 of the elite will delay the response even if some wisdom
4308
does surface amongst the informed
4309
. The masses will, as ever, just strive to keep up 4310 . That is the situation now and it is most unlikely to change appreciably in the near future
4311
. A major global economic meltdown is very likely, shortly, because of oil supply depletion coupled with the vulnerability of the U.S. economy as it is so indebted. Money is the driving force behind the production of goods
271

and their consumption. It is the driving force behind the temporary construction of the edifices of civilization. It is the driving force behind devastation of the ecosystem. It thereby provides the leverage to use natural resources
4312
to increase global entropy
4313
.
The consequence of that is a reduction in the ability of the ecosystem to meet society’s
demand s
4314 . Money will therefore lose its leverage as its influence is unsustainable 4315 .
The resulting
Greater Depression is likely to trigger a blame game
4316
amongst the powerful rather than an objective look at the ecological reality explained here. The prols will, of course, bear the brunt of the crash 4317 . The Greater Depression will doubtless further stimulate the emerging understanding in the smarter elements of the business world of the need for realistic ecological accounting
4318
. It is almost certain to cause a blip in entropic growth, especially in the U.S. It is bound to cause hardship amongst many bewildered believers in the progress delusion
4319
.
The growing awareness amongst a very small minority
4321 of what damage we have already done to the ecosystem
4322
is most unlikely to lead to timely action
4323
. The move
4324
towards people power
4325
is unlikely to have much impact
4326
. Common misperceptions will continue to hinder adaptation
4327
. We can really expect to ease our holistic predicament only when it is appreciated that there are too many of us
4328
, when countries reach sensible agreement about sharing natural resources
4329
, when being wealthy is regarded as an illusion
4330
, when the elite
4331
are regarded as liabilities
4332
, capitalism
4333
is seen to be a (eco) costly way of making people consume what is left of natural resources
4334
, our consumptive habits are cancers to be treated
4335
, and the masses attempt to live with nature
4336
. Science and technology will need to aim to provide means to use the remaining bounty as wisely as possible 4337 . Above all, the pursuit of economic growth will be seen to be societal suicide as it has already grown to an unsustainable extent in many developed and developing countries. At best, the growing awareness 4338 will lead to a form of simpler way 4339 of life 4340 for a much reduced global population 4341 .
A die off
4342
is an inevitable price society has to pay for its misuse of what Gaia had to offer and lack of understanding of the consequences 4343 of these actions 4344 . There is little doubt that the powerful, countries and people, will desperately wield their influence
4345
to maintain their dominance
4346
so, as usual, the masses
4347
will pay the bill
4348
. However, industrial civilization has been no wiser than the Easter Islanders
4349
!
272

There is the possibility, however, that an awesome force will emerge in time to ease the power down. The Internet and such examples as Wikipedia show that there are many people willing to use this freedom of communication in a good cause. This force could be harnessed to provide a global forum
4351
, possibly under the auspices of the UN, to arrive at sound decisions for the operation of the ecosystem, including human activities. It would provide a form of collectivism
4352
. Alternate reality games (ARG) are catching on and could well provide a very useful mechanism in developing collective wisdom on how society should use the remaining natural bounty. It would motivate people because they would know they were contributing. The youngsters would be able to tell the oldies where they got it wrong! It would be a system in which all people could vote on issues that affect them and their votes would take a weight according to their knowledge of the issue, obtained through a feedback mechanism. It would mean that they should have access to reliable information
4353
on the consequences of the proposed measure. Such a system may appear unlikely at this stage. It would, however, represent a major challenge to the emerging global smart generation
4354
. It would give them the chance of showing we really can be clever in providing a rational, truly democratic system for working with nature. It would instigate a Earthly Revolution
4355
.
You have now reached the end of this essay. You should now have some appreciation of what has happened and how it has come about. The most important lesson is that we are totally dependent on nature for life support yet the conventional paradigm is that we can decide what is good for Gaia and us. We live in a dream world
4357
that is rapidly becoming a nightmare
4358
. The purpose of this essay was to awaken smart, thinking people to the simple ecological situation expressed in the Dependence on Nature
Law. There is the real challenge ahead to build on the benevolent aspects of human culture 4359 whilst attempting to shore up the foundations by judicious use of the remaining natural bounty. The damage has been done. There is no turning back the clock.
A healthy Body would foster a healthy Mind. But it matters little what the Mind thinks if the Body is unhealthy, as now. But the pain can be eased, the Brain nurtured and, possibly, the Tumor exorcised. The challenge is to usher in the Earthly Revolution
4360
.
273

1
There are currently over 6 billion people using this ecosystem. I expect something like 1 to 2 billion of our species have had a passable education and have had the opportunity to have jobs where they can strive to better themselves and so enjoy a reasonable standard of living. They have been given no reason to doubt that economic growth will enable more progress and they can therefore look forward to a brighter future. That is the delusion for most. I expect that there is something like 10 million who, for some reason or another, are awake to the fact that there is something seriously wrong with the workings of the global civilization and its host, the ecosystem. I expect that the
Internet has facilitated this rapid increase in concern in recent years but it has not been enough to stimulate real mitigating action, yet. The signs of climate change are as worrying as the lack of action from the powerful. But that is only one of the symptoms of the holistic malaise.
2
The Center for Health, Environment & Justice has launched a national campaign to ask
Target to phase out the poison plastic and switch to safer alternatives, as other retailers have done. Is it any wonder that breast cancer has gone up 80% since the less-plasticized
1970s? There is an increasing amount of evidence that many products on the market are having a serious effect on human health. That is just one sign amongst many that our activities are causing grievous predicaments. ‘One Great Big Plastic Hassle’ by Jane
Akre, February 11, 2007 http://www.dissiden tvoice.org/ Feb07/Akre11. htm provides detail of this predicament in America.
3
There are many groups on the Internet that clearly have an appreciation of the nature of aspects of the holistic predicament. Many are promoting a simpler lifestyle based on doing rather than having. I expect that the perspective of this essay will add to their understanding. I expect that many of these people are uncertain and bewildered by the
274

sheer complexity of the views being promulgated. The main objective of this essay is to show that there is a simple ecological reason underlying what has gone wrong.
4
I use this term rather than the common ‘biosphere’ as a reminder that we are dependent on the geodiversity of our life support system as well as the biodiversity and we corrupt both with our activities!
5
A lot of people argue that we are part of nature so to condemn aspects of what we have done is to condemn nature. That can lead into a long argument without any real benefit with respect to what we are trying to achieve here. The objective is to examine what human activities have and are doing so that we can strive to meet the challenge of mitigating the consequences. That is, to try to use our intelligence to assist natural forces, not to oppose them or replace them.
6
This essay is intended to be an accumulation and articulation of what is essentially common knowledge of the consequences of what happens in nature and in civilization as the result of human activities. Deeper scientific understanding backs these views. Human decisions have had a big impact on what has happened to the ecosystem. It is the ensuring consequences that are the central issue in this essay. Many of these consequences were unintended but deleterious and some are generally unrecognized even today.
7 http://ieeexplore.ieee.org
IEEE TECHNOLOGY AND SOCIETY MAGAZINE | WINTER 2006
‘On the Presumed Neutrality of Technology’ Norman Balabanian
Makes fascinating reading with many relevant points on the role of technology in the operation of civilization. There is, however, one point that I take issue with. To quote
< 3) Dominating Nature: The physical world (nature) is there for "man" to subdue, dominate, conquer, subjugate, and exploit. By scientific knowledge, said Descartes, "we may be able to make ourselves masters and possessors of nature.">
I argue in ‘What went wrong?’ that every materialistic operation society does or uses, often through the use of technology, involves irreversibly drawing down on the available natural bounty, most of which is irreplaceable capital. This is so fundamental that I
275

believe it should be formalized as the Dependence on Nature Law. Society cannot, therefore, ‘subdue, conquer or subjugate’ nature. And it can only temporarily ‘dominate and exploit’ nature whilst there is sufficient remaining available natural bounty capital.
Thus, domination and exploitation is not sustainable.
8
There are a multitude of attempts to explain why society has gone down the path of devastating the environment for its own greedy purposes. They range from the selfish genes to prejudiced education. It does not fit with the purpose of this essay to consider why in detail.
‘Grow up, America! - Sept. 11th analyzed in Jungian terms’ is an essay by
Cal Simone in Culture Change on the American psyche and how it has regressed. That is, the collective psyche has stopped maturing and reversed. The nature of the collective psyche has had a tremendous influence on why human activities have devastated the ecosystem. It is ironical that this collective psyche can reverse when the ecological operations are irreversible. This irreversibility is a central tenet in this essay. Professor
Odum has many environmental credits to his name including the book, ‘Environment,
Power and Society’ . In it he evokes Lotka’s Principle – maximizing power in an energy model. In my opinion, it is a simplistic and misleading model of why society has gone down this track. He is referring to energy in a general sense rather to physical energy.
MuseLetter 176 / December 2006,‘The Psychology of Peak Oil and Climate Change’ by
Richard Heinberg discusses why it is that people do not accept that a peak oil and climate change is developing. He quotes the works of Mobus on the development of human intelligence. It is a very pervasive argument on why we have arrived at this crisis. It also spells out why society is most unlikely to respond rapidly and in a sound fashion. It is an anthropogenic view. It does not address the simple fact pointed out in this essay that everything we do and have requires the consumption of natural resources, many exhaustible, with a consequential devastation of the environment. The common denial of such predicaments as peak oil and climate change would be much less common amongst those who understand the Dependence on Nature Law. Heinberg speculates on how some people may respond positively to the challenge. Discussions like this are bound to make a
276

contribution to facing up to the difficult times. They will undoubtedly assist the necessary culture change.
9
Heinberg ‘The Party’s Over’ (pp19-32) elucidates on the five strategies, take over, tool use, specialization, scope enlargement and draw down that have enabled the rapid expansion of the human carrying capacity of the ecosystem to meet society’s needs and wants at the expense of natural resources and services. He does, however, concentrate on the impact of industrial energy usage rather than the holistic nature of what civilization has done, which is the objective in this essay.
10
Many writers speculate on what the future may hold. I prefer to concentrate my energy on spelling out the fundamental basis of what we have done wrong. This understanding will help those rising to the challenge to devise mitigation activities.
11
The powerful elite should be held responsible for their influence on the misdirection civilization has taken. They have been behind what has happened while the masses have just tagged along.
12
THE SOURCE OF HOPELESSNESS: A REVIEW OF 'AN INCONVENIENT
TRUTH'
By Catherine Austin Fitts, < http://www.solari.com/ >Solari Inc. provides insight into the financial system and who manipulates it in the U.S., at the expense of the ecosystem.
13 Increasing entropy is like the declining capability that we associate with aging. It can be applied to specific complex systems as well as to processes. The primary purpose in this essay is to indicate the state of the Body of civilization and its host, Gaia, using entropy as an indicator of the degree of disorder.
14 I capitalize ‘Body’ to emphasize that it is a synthetic construct based on using natural resources unsustainably.
15 A very important point that will be developed in this essay is that civilization has been self-organizing to a degree but has been lacking in self-regulation. It is in dire straits because it has not controlled its development in a sustainable manner.
16
That is, I look objectively at what is really happening to the ecosystem rather than the common, biased view held by the majority of humankind. This way, I look at the reality
277

of what human activities have done. The anthropocentric view has led to our devastation of the ecosystem, yet it is still the common view amongst the ‘leaders’ of society even as the devastation is becoming more apparent.
17
We are conditioned to think in terms of human aspirations and achievements whilst ignoring the fact that everything we do and use is provided by nature. We have a biased perception of the place of humans in the operation of the ecosystem. ‘environmentalists’ have been unjustly lampooned by the media for decades because they have harped on some aspects of what civilization has done to the environment.
18
I read some philosophical comments by an academic on the morality of having concerns about the impact of climate change on future generations when we are not doing enough for the disadvantaged of this generation. It struck me then how out of perspective he was. He was blind to how far our civilization had gone down the wrong track. We have abused the ecosystem in our blind attempt at ‘progress’. Yet he was concerned only with those who are missing out now rather than what the future holds.
19
In examining what has happened to the ecosystem it is necessary to put aside logic and reasoning. These are mental means of assessing activities. De Bono has pointed out that they have very limited value unless backed by facts. It is facts that we are looking at here.
It is quite illogical and unreasonable that society has ignored them. Although, of course, it is not always easy to ascertain what the true facts are because of many prejudiced arguments. It is essential to think through the subject to ‘sort the wheat from the chaff’.
20 The quote from Gibbon ends with ‘We may therefore acquiesce in the pleasing conclusion that every age of the world has increased and still increases the real wealth, the happiness, the knowledge, and perhaps the virtue, of the human race.’ in ‘Decline and Fall of the Roman
Empire’-Gibbon (1776).He seems to sum up realistically how modern society has managed to progress. There are very few who would question the major thrust of his argument. Yet this ‘progress’ is illusionary. The view is looking only at the edifice that has been built up without consideration of the nature of the material foundations. It has ignored the consequences of drawing down on the limited natural capital to achieve this progress. It implies that the crustal stocks of the fossil fuels and other crucial materials are unlimited. It implies that the material wastes that civilization now produces in vast quantities do no harm to
278

the environment. It implies that the operations of society can take over a large proportion of the natural operation of the ecosystem without deleteriously affecting the natural operations. In other words, this view looks at the positives and ignores the negatives that, despite what Homo sapiens think, are immutable. Gibbon’s view is typically anthropogenic, not realistic.
21 Money has a tremendous influence on the decisions made about the operation of society but absolutely no impact on what actually happens.
22 However, some myths and realities of the nature of modern society are noted because of their influence on what has happened to the foundations.
23 As summed up by the poem in StudyCircle by Jaffa. ‘Our Mother Earth lays dying.
At the mercy of corporate greed
Raped of all life and culture
Consumed by careless need
The trail of consumer destruction
Leaves nothing in its wake
Species lost forever
It's no 'ignorant mistake'
Direct mail through our doors
Allure promise to lower cost
Irony steeps this lavish waste
All forests rivers oceans lost
Dead sea levels are rising
The threat is very near
Seasons bring diversities
Do these warnings seem unclear?
The beauty of this life on earth
Now wears an ugly shroud
Lifestyles built on idleness
Beneath red dust cloud
The sand of time is running low
The time to act is NOW
Responsibility lies with you
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So ask not 'When?' but 'How?'
Our Mother Earth needs healing.
If sacred life we're to preserve.
Small changes make big impacts.
Recycle, care, conserve!
24
‘A Very Brief History of Time’ by Christopher Langan is an almost incomprehensible article about the way (some) people think. Langan reportedly has a very high IQ. The abstruseness of the article is, in my opinion, intended to make the reader feel inferior.
Langan is trying to show his superiority in understanding a very abstract subject. We are concerned here with what actually happens in the every day operation of the ecosystem we inhabit. Discussions like Langan’s have no relevance to that subject. They cast no light on what actually happens.
25
‘On the Perils of Metaphysical Skysurfing Without a Parachute’ by Christopher
Langan contains some fascinating discussion on metaphysical aspects. It seems to warn about the dangers of humans believing they are in control but the article is so esoteric that it is of little use in discussing the mundane issue of what has happened.
26
I have often seen this quote ‘The life contest is primarily a competition for available energy.’-- Ludwig Boltzman, Physicist (1886) in discussions attempting to relate the connection between physics and biology in relation to evolution. After due consideration,
I believe such views have no relevance here where the subject is what human activities have actually done to the ecosystem. William Kotke provides insight into the consequences of these activities in his book ‘The final Empire’.
28 Each operation takes an irreversible amount of time and entails the use of an irrecoverable amount of energy. This is the case for all operations whether they be natural or those of civilization.
29 ‘ Limits to Growth: the Thirty Year Update’ has a list at page.84 of this component of natural bounty.
Many of the tangible items can be regarded as income but some are also capital that is depreciating. It notes
(at page 83) that the Living Planet Index shows a rapid decline in recent times.
30 It requires a major adjustment of your mindset.
32
Society endeavors to build up financial and social capital using, in part, intellectual capital whilst ignoring the fact that the operations of civilization are irreversibly drawing down on natural material capital.
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33 Maintenance of the structure of civilization will entail an appreciable eco cost that is additional to the cost of meeting human needs.
34
‘natural bounty’ is the term that I use to cover all the natural tangible goods and services that continue to be available to society, although some are limited. That is, their continuing use is unsustainable. These comprise the natural bounty capital. The replenishment of some of that use is natural bounty income. It is hard to estimate the impact of ecosystem balance but there is a clear need to include it as an element in the bounty. ‘natural bounty’ is not really quantifiable but it is a crucial concept. It is imperative to appreciate that the use of natural bounty is irreversible. It is like time passing. But its limit can increase due to new finds or methods of use. http://news. bbc.co.uk/ 2/hi/africa/ 6904318.stm
Water find 'may end Darfur war'. A huge underground lake has been found in Sudan's
Darfur region, scientists say, which they believe could help end the conflict in the arid region.’ This is an example of a small increase in the global natural bounty but a significant one for the region.
35
The Japanese are developing a means to extract uranium from seawater. This is an example of where technology can increase the natural bounty capital. The opening up of the Arctic for oil and gas exploitation is another example of increasing natural bounty capital. The uncertainty about how much of this capital remains does not change the situation that it is exhaustible and the draw down rate will become increasingly more difficult. The common view is that the remaining capital is sufficient to allow business as usual. This view is denial of the reality that available natural bounty is declining rapidly
36
Present circumstances can influence the perception of what can reasonably be estimated as a component of natural bounty capital. For example, the price of oil is affecting the view of whether the Colorado oil shale is worth extracting. This uncertainty does not, however, affect the principle that there is a limit to the natural bounty capital that should not be ignored in the operation of civilization – but is.
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37 New Theory Predicts Location Of Oil And Gas Reserves
ScienceDaily (Oct. 21, 2007) — Researchers in Stavanger, Norway, have developed a theory which can be important for future oil and gas exploration.
The Golden Zone is the name of a an underground zone where temperatures range between 60 and 120 C. The name refers to a new discovery that 90 per cent of the world's oil and gas reserves are to be found just there.’ This article describes a finding that may facilitate the discovery of more oil and gas. This may increase the available natural bounty capital marginally but is counter productive as it encourages the misleading and wasteful ‘business as usual’ view.
39 particularly lakes and rivers
41 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aiUsVKaqDA7g&refer=japa n
‘Japan Mines `Flammable Ice,' Flirts With Environmental Disaster’ By Shigeru Sato.
``Methane hydrate was a key cause of the global warming that led to one of the largest extinctions in the earth's history,'' says Ryo Matsumoto, a University of Tokyo scientist who has studied frozen gas since 1987. ``By making the best use of our wisdom, knowledge and technology, we should be able to utilize this wisely as a new energy.'' Just like using our wisdom, knowledge and technology has enabled us to cause climate change!
42 the role of RFM in the operation of society is discussed in this essay. It is ironical that
RFM can also have a significant impact on natural operations, as evidenced by what is happening to Arctic sea ice http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7139797.stm
This is the opposite to what happens in ecological succession. It is an example of where nature cannot cope with the disruption initiated by industrial actions.
43
The USGS has estimated conventional US geothermal (hydrothermal) energy resource to be about 26 GWe proven and another 100 GWe undiscovered. The US is the world leader in geothermal at 3GWe total, generating about 15,000 GWh(.35% of US electricity) , in CA, HI, NV and UT. Here's a report from last year on US secondary
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geothermal energy resources, EGS. http://geothermal. id.doe.gov/ publications/ future_of_ geothermal_ energy.pdf
The report covers enhanced geothermal systems(EGS) with deep wells up to 6 km deep drilled into the crust with water being circulated thru hot rocks up to a binary cycle power plant(10% thermal efficiency).’ This article indicates an area where natural bounty capital can be expected to increase. That is the positive side of these findings. The negative side is that it supports the delusion that continuing growth is possible.
44
This is exacerbated by the time lag between when this damage is done and recognition of the consequences.
45
It is the UNEP's Global Environment Outlook: environment for development (GEO-4) report published 20 years after the World Commission on Environment and Development
(1987 - the Brundtland Commission) produced its seminal report, Our Common Future.
The report provides a sound basis for all planning by local, state and national governments. Corporations, NGOs, businesses and even families and individuals have something to learn from this document as it has implications for the future behavior of all. To ignore the implications of this report would be negligent and irresponsible’ This report provides an indication of hat human activities have done to the ecosystem and some of the difficulties to be faced. It does not, however, emphasize that these difficulties have arisen because of these operations are based on what may be termed the
Dependence on Nature Law. Surprisingly, it does not mention the fact that these activities have used up a high proportion of the exhaustible natural resources, like oil and lead, in the process of doing the damage detailed here.
46
These can improve the worth of what is provided but do not reduce the eco cost entailed. In fact, the eco cost has often been increased due to the associated devastation of the environment.
47
‘To be sure, building an economic sector is a formidable task. Fortunately, the commons sector needn't be built from scratch; it has an enormous asset base just waiting to be claimed - the commons itself, the gifts of nature and society we inherit and create together. All we need to do is organize those gifts in ways that protect them from
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corporate predation. Gifts of nature, such as ecosystems, habitats and non-human species, are the most threatened part of the commons today. Morally, we have a duty to preserve these irreplaceable gifts, a duty we aren't fulfilling. One way we might fulfill it is to place such gifts in trust.’ This is a fallacious, anthropogenic view. We have presumed that the natural bounty is a gift from nature. We have not attempted to estimate the true eco cost.
We have drawn down much of the natural bounty capital without appreciating that nature cannot cope with some of our activities. Now we have to adapt to what they have done to the ecosystem, including the climate.
48
Climate change is opening up the Arctic for oil and gas exploration. That is, there is scope for an increase in the natural bounty capital. This does not affect the principle that the operation of civilization is irreversibly drawing down on this capital.
50 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/23/opinion/23friedman.html
‘In the Age of Noah’ By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN,Jakarta, Indonesia
‘For so many years, Indonesians, like many of us, have been taught that life is a trade-off: healthy people with lots of jobs or healthy forests with lots of gibbons — you can’t have both. But the truth is you have to have both. If you don’t, you’ll eventually end up with neither, and then it will be too late even for Noah.’ This comment sums up the situation facing civilization. This essay provides the understanding of what civilization has done wrong.
51
Humans using inductive reasoning of observations and measurements have defined only some of them. We do not need to know all the laws to understand that nature controls what happens.
52 http://www.bestcyrano.org/THOMASPAINE/?p=472
‘The Planned Collapse of America. We are seeing the planned collapse of America, coming down the road we are on. What are we going to do to get our nation off that highway to hell?’ By Peter Chamberlin,12/4/07. This is an anthropogenic view of the moves by the powerful to foster their globalization agenda at the expense of the American people. It shows that the powerful do not appreciate the fundamental fact that all the operations of civilization depend on using up irreplaceable natural bounty. They have yet to learn that they are powerless
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against that reality. But they are not the ones who will have to pay the price of this ignorance.
53 ‘Parks less than pristine. Dangerous levels of toxics imperil humans, wildlife’ Peter Fimrite, Chronicle Staff
Writer, Thursday, February 28, 2008 http://tinyurl. com/225dd4
The fallout of industrialization has been detected in the forests of the western United States, where some of the country's most pristine sanctuaries are apparently coated with dangerous levels of toxic chemicals. A federal study released this week found surprisingly high concentrations of 70 contaminants, including mercury and a wide variety of pesticides. The pollution was found in the air, snow, lakes, on plants and in the fish at 20 national parks and monuments, including Yosemite.
54
Wikipedia provides some detail.
55 The reality considered in this essay is what really happens during the operation of any item, natural or synthetic, in the ecosystem.
Aspects of this behavior are often described by natural laws humans have defined through understanding of what invariably happens in particular circumstances.
56 This should be evaluated in context. For example, proposals for industrial means of capturing carbon dioxide from air cannot possibly compare with planting trees (or reducing de-forestation) and encouraging less wasteful use of energy.
57 Justifying that assertion follows later in the essay.
59
Oil constitutes a high proportion of the global natural bounty capital. It is ironical that
Americans have led the draw down of this portion of the bounty so they are so addicted to its consumption for their carmania and flymania that they will suffer the harshest withdrawal symptoms. They are like the heaviest smokers who will now have to cope with the resultant health consequences.
60
It is promoted by the ‘Use it or lose it’ philosophy. Now we are addicted to using it as we lose it.
61
They should have been on a sound diet.
62
With the supply of energy from fossil fuels, particularly oil, receiving the most attention at this stage. There are many others that will provide shocks. Little attention is being paid to their demise, as yet. ‘World Scientists Warning to Humanity’ in 1992 recognised the danger stemming from the ecological damage being done by civilization.
This element of the depreciation of natural capital was considered then to be sufficiently
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serious as to warrant the warning. This element has subsequently become more apparent
– to those prepared to seriously consider what is happening rather than pursue the dollar.
63
The income meets only a small proportion of the bounty expenditure of most modern communities.
64
Our bodies are a very pertinent example but there are thousands, most of which we take for granted. But the birds and the bees play their part too in regulating the operation of the ecosystem, when we do not devastate their environment.
65
The income of insolation, water, carbon dioxide and nutrients is coupled with the input from the fossil fuels for preparation, processing, transportation and storage. The acquisition of land for agriculture and grazing has disrupted biodiversity and geodiversity for millennia and continues apace.
66
To provide the energy source, the materials for construction, the impact of waste production and environment devastation.
67
A tree is produced by income but capital is employed in making the wood available for human use. This use may be worthwhile, say for cooking food, but it involves an eco cost, as it is disruptive of forest biodiversity.
68 ".... it is impossible for any man to contribute to the social system the physical equivalent of what it costs the system to maintain him from birth till death - and the higher the physical standard of living, the greater is this discrepancy. This is because man is an engine operating under the limitations of the same physical laws as any other engine. The energy that it takes to operate him is several times as much as any amount of work he can possibly perform. If, in addition to his food, he receives also the products of modern industry, this is due to the fact that material and energy resources happen to be available and, as compared with any contribution he can make, constitute a free gift from heaven. "
- Robert L. Hickerson in "Hubbert's Prescription for Survival, A Steady State Economy"
This quote makes one of the points central to this essay. It is a fundamental point about physical energy and how society operates by having ‘energy slaves’. He refers to some of the natural bounty, material and energy resources, as a ‘free gift from heaven’ while I refer to them as natural bounty capital.
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69 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6922065.stm
Monday, 30 July 2007. ‘Focus on carbon 'missing the point' by Eamon O'Hara. ’The focus on reducing carbon emissions has blinded us to the real problem - unsustainable lifestyles, says Eamon O'Hara. In this week's Green Room, he argues that bigger problems await us unless we shift our efforts. For many decades, the symptoms of unsustainable human exploitation of the natural environment have been mounting: species extinction, the loss of biodiversity, air and water pollution, soil erosion, acid rain, destruction of rainforests, ozone depletion - the list goes on. The large-scale transition to renewable resources might provide a safer alternative to oil and gas and other finite resources, but it will not remove our energy and resource dependency, which will continue to expand in line with economic growth. Ultimately, our problem is consumption, and the environment is not the only casualty.’ This article looks realistically at what civilization has done then notes that growth exacerbates the rate of devastation.
70 These are sound arguments but they are not taking into account future consequences.
They are talking about the limits to the rate of capital draw down but ignore the consequences of when the capital is gone or even when it is scarce.
71 ‘As we peer into society's future, we - you and I, and our government - must avoid the impulse to live only for today, plundering, for our own ease and convenience, the precious resources of tomorrow. We cannot mortgage the material assets of our grandchildren without asking the loss also of their political and spiritual heritage. We want democracy to survive for all generations to come, not to become the insolvent phantom of tomorrow.’ Dwight Eisenhower Farewell Address, January 1961. Eisenhower was one of many prominent people who understood the basic problem decades ago. It is possible that no realistic action resulted because even informed people did not appreciate that everything we do and use requires an irreversible draw down of the limited natural bounty.
72 From the Collins English Dictionary, fourth Edition:
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Sustainable, in terms of economic development, energy sources etc. is: “Capable of being maintained at a steady level without exhausting natural resources or causing severe ecological damage.”
73
This definition does not take into account that appreciable natural bounty will have to be expended in trying to maintain the infrastructure and in remedying some of the damage our activities have done to the environment. That is, we have already committed ed the coming generations with a heavy load from depleted resources.
74 MID-WAY TO 2015: IPS tracks progress and obstacles in the effort towards the
Millennium Development Goals: The eight MDGs are:
1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
2. Achieve universal primary education
3. Promote gender equality and empower women
4. Reduce child mortality
5. Improve maternal health
6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases
7. Ensure environmental sustainability
8. Develop a global partnership for development
Goal 7 is impossible while the others are only difficult!
75 Adjust your mindset accordingly!
77 This volume often refers to relevant material so the appropriate pages are noted.
79 http://www.sfgate.com/cgibin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2008/03/12/MNSLVHTM5.DTL
‘Feds warn entire salmon season could be halted’ Peter Fimrite,
Chronicle Staff Writer, March 12, 2008. PDT Sacramento - --So few salmon are living in the ocean and rivers along the Pacific Coast that salmon fishing in California and Oregon will have to be shut down completely this year unless an emergency exception is granted, Pacific Fishery
Management Council representatives said Tuesday.’ This article indicates
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just one of many remedial activities that are becoming necessary elements in the depreciation of natural capital.
80 ‘Conservation for the People’, Scientific American, October, 2007. This article considers the pros and cons of measures to restore natural services at the expense of the impact on operations of society. It is to be expected that more discussions like this will eventuate although the balance may well change as understanding of the Dependence on
Nature Law and appreciation of the depletion of natural bounty capital become more widespread. There are concerns, naturally, that some of these efforts may have unintended consequences, especially with the uncertainty introduced by climate change.
81 http://www.enn.com/top_stories/article/23763
“Zero” Amazon Deforestation Possible by 2015, Brazilian NGOs say
Halting deforestation in the Amazon rainforest is the objective of nine Brazilian nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) that have drafted an ambitious plan to stop clearcutting in the region within seven years. The groups, which include national affiliates of Greenpeace, WWF, and The Nature Conservancy, presented the proposal at an event in Brasilia attended by environment minister Marina Silva, state governors, and other authorities.’ This is a positive mitigation action but much more is needed globally.
83
the ability to use fossil fuels greatly increased the available bounty, which we have exuberantly used without taking into account the limit.
84
Pricing, technology and know how can all affect the perceived limits without affecting the principle that these real limits exist.
85
.’Because in comparing the possibility of the impossible (physical miracles) with the plausibility of the implausible (a human hand behind the apparent miracles), the latter is infinitly more probable.’ Sums up the delusion held by society.
86 Know how and skill can improve the worth of build ups but they always entail an irrevocable eco cost. Material wealth is an oxymoron because there are always losses entailed in constructing and operating something by using or degrading irreplaceable natural resources.
88
Most of the energy driving industry comes out of the depleting store, at a tremendous, largely unrecognized, cost.
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89 Snow melt has had a major impact in many regions but that could well be altering due to climate change.
90
Hydro-electric schemes are common examples although the unintended consequences of many are becoming understood.
91
This entails using a lot of capital, such as oil and natural gas whilst they are readily available.
92 http://www.sandersresearch.com/index.php?option=comcontent&task=view&id=1240
’Helium: a vanishing commodity’ By Rui Namorado Rosa, Jun/01/2007. Very few people are a aware of the fact that a particular substance, displaying a number of unique properties such that has deserved a huge body of research since its discovery more than a century ago, and is now widely employed in a broad range of technical devices, is actually running short of supply. We refer to helium, the lightest noble gas. Its main source of supply is natural gas fields. As hydrocarbons are being depleted, and, in particular fields with higher helium content being tapped for helium, show declining productivity. Peak helium iscontemplated very seriously.’ This article explains that the declining supply of the exhaustible helium is likely to have a serious impact on many technological industries. This is a reminder that society relies on the supply of many exhaustible materials!
93 Numerous studies have found that degradation of fertility due to inappropriate agricultural methods far exceeds improvements being made by permaculture and the like.
94
Plantations do not provide adequate substitute ecological services.
95 Australians live on the dry continent yet they go out of their way to drink their Great Artesian Basin dry!
96
Extinctions are having a widespread impact due to the interdependence of flora, fauna and insects.
‘Limits to Growth: the Thirty Year Update’ (page 84) notes that this element of natural capital draw down is tantamount to a mass extinction in the opinion of many biologists.
97
In civilization’s time scale.
98 http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2007/06/02/1624/
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Published on Saturday, June 2, 2007 by the San Francisco Chronicle ‘Greenland Ice Melt
Speeds Up Warming: Trend is Confirmed via Satellite, Flyovers’ by David Perlman.
NASA scientists reading signals from a satellite in orbit, and flying aboard a low-flying plane over Greenland, are finding fresh evidence of melting snows and thinning glaciers in vast areas of the massive island. Their observations confirm the climate’s warming trend in the far northern reaches of the world, they say, where changes in the circulation of waters feeding into the Arctic Ocean are altering crucial patterns of ocean currents there with effects that are increasingly uncertain.’ This is one sign of the impact of global warming that is confirming the views of IPCC that a significant change of climate is under way. The latest results suggest that global warming is increasing even more rapidly than the latest IPCC report suggests.
99
Common bird species in dramatic decline. A new Audubon study is one of the most comprehensive looks at bird-population trends in North America.’ By Mark Clayton of
The Christian Science Monitor http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0615/p02s03-usgn.html
Boston - New data show the populations of some of America's well-known birds in a tailspin, thanks to the one-two punch of habitat fragmentation and, increasingly, global warming.’ What is happening to north American birds seems to typify the global disruption of biodiversity due to human activities.
100 Many indigenous communities have a greater awareness of what is going on than the desk-bound politicians!
101
There are already numerous communities across the globe that are having to make major adjustments to their basic life style.
102
This has been done for Ecological Footprint, as noted later. The natural bounty, however, embraces a much broader concept of what is available to civilization from the ecosystem.
103 http://www.zmag. org/content/ showarticle. cfm?SectionID= 57&ItemID= 12951 see also
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http://www.zmag. org/debatesgloba lwarming. html
’Alexander Cockburn and the Corruption of Science’ by George Monbiot, May 31, 2007.
In this article, Monbiot provides convincing evidence of how a climate change skeptic manipulated his presentation in a manner that may have convinced some of the uninformed but was, in reality, corruption of the science. Those skeptics that have their own agenda will not, of course, be swayed by a dose of realism here.
105
And expert at using money!
106
The current common view that oil supply is governed by economic, political and technical factors rather than the geological reality that it is an exhaustible resource is one of the major misjudgments.
107 It would be a question as to whether the increase in this element of natural capital was worth the draw down in capital entailed in carrying out the exploration. This is hardly a question to be answered realistically in financial terms.
108
‘An estimated 550 billion tons of federal coal remains unleased in the Powder River
Basin straddling Wyoming and Montana -- enough to match the nation's current annual appetite for the next 493 years, according to a federal report released this week. If and how that titanic resource will be recovered remains a technical, economic and political challenge, however. According to estimates based on U.S. Geological Survey figures, 95 percent of the resource is too deep to mine by conventional methods.’ This is an example of the uncertainty regarding the remaining natural capital. The technology to mine more of this coal may well be developed but all that will do is extend the time that this source of energy is available. It will, also, encourage the misleading view of business as usual!
109 Being degraded by de-forestation, inappropriate biomass utilization, fishing, urban construction, desertification, pollution and emissions.
110
being reduced by most agricultural practices. http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=39083
’ ENVIRONMENT: Dirt Isn't So Cheap After All’ By Stephen Leahy, BROOKLIN,
Canada, Aug 30 (IPS) – ‘Soil erosion is the "silent global crisis" that is undermining food production and water availability, as well as being responsible for 30 percent of the greenhouse gases driving climate change.’ This article provides details of what is
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happening to global soil fertility and the deleterious impact on food production of its decimation.
111
being depleted where the extraction rate exceeds the replenishment rate or groundwater pollution reduces the available potable water. http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1677007,00.html
‘U.S. Could See a Water Shortage’ By AP/BRIAN SKOLOFF. This article gives details of the looming water shortage in the U.S. It is even worse in some other countries.
113
There are sound environmental, ethical, moral and political reasons to shy away from further use of nuclear power. Industrial civilization, however, has built up a structure that is committed to using enormous amounts of energy, even when it is powering down. This pragmatic reason is most likely to over power all the other reasons. Nuclear power, consequently, can be expected to contribute to the global power down despite its many disadvantages.
114 http://www.motherjones.com/news/feature/2007/03/reversal_of_fortune.html
Mother Jones, March/April 2007 Issue ‘Reversal of Fortune. The formula for human well-being used to be simple: Make money, get happy. So why is the old axiom suddenly turning on us?’ By Bill Mckibben. This article is a very sound commentary on what has gone wrong with consumptive society. He looks towards an improvement by reverting to the old values, including communalism. It is, however, another anthropogenic view. It does not spell out that the foundations of our society are irrevocably dependent on using natural resources and many countries have gone too far down the wrong track in misusing these resources. This essay will help those concerned people who gain enlightement from
Mckibben’s views to better understand where the mistake was made.
115 http://www.optimumpopulation.org/ is the link to the UK Optimum Population Trust which is addressing the impact of overpopulation on the ecosystem. It is to be expected that this type of view will grow rapidly but that does not mean that sufficient action will be undertaken. It is, after all, a very sensitive issue.
116 This is now receiving attention from the movers and shakers. It would be inadvisable, however, to lose sight of the influence of the other elements in the World’s Predicaments.
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Diminishing oil supply is only one prominent one.
Don't blame the weatherman.
Accusing academics of exaggerating climate change could have dangerous consequences, says Tim Radford, Thursday June 21, 2007. http://tinyurl. com/yqb2gz
This article comments on the need for precautionary measures to cope with the disasters that are likely because of climate change. It is a realistic comment on just one aspect of the holistic problem of too many humans devastating the natural operation of the their life support system. There is an urgent need for society to face up to these unintended consequences of their activities. Climate change is just one of them. It is another manifestation of entropic growth. Adapting to it will irrevocably draw down on some of the remaining natural bounty.
117
Gone: Mass Extinction and the Hazards of Earth's Vanishing Biodiversity
News: It is a fact widely accepted by biologists but little known by the population at large. By the end of the century, half of all species on Earth may be extinct due to global warming and other causes. Who will survive the world's dwindling biodiversity, and why?‘ By Julia Whitty, April 25, 2007. This article provides appreciable detail on what biologists are learning about the irrevocable disruption of biodiversity by human activities. It constitutes an appreciable draw down of the natural bounty capital even though it has not received the publicity of climate change or peak oil .
118 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18881798/site/newsweek/
‘Troubled Waters. Drought, pollution, mismanagement and politics have made water a precious commodity in much of the world.’ By Mary Carmichael, Newsweek, June 4,
2007 issue. This article provides some indication of the worldwide problems with water supply, yet climate change is mentioned only once. The water problems in U.S. and
Australia are comparatively mild, yet quite devastating for the communities involved.
119
The term World Problematique was couched by the Club of Rome to cover political, social, economic, technological, environmental, psychological and cultural aspects of the problem facing humanity. I use the term World’s Predicaments as a reminder that I am
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examining only the technological and environmental aspects of the operation of the Body of civilization and Gaia.
120
The argument by Chevron that energy is one of the defining issues of this century just indicates the myopic view of Big Business. It is not looking at the inescapable reality that industrial civilization is unsustainable because it is totally dependent on using a declining natural bounty. Governments have a policy aimed at energy security because they believe in economic growth and they do not understand that they are encouraging the rapid depletion of the remaining natural bounty.
PRAGUE, June 22, 2007. The battle to control
Europe's energy markets and supply routes is moving to the Balkans. Russian President
Vladimir Putin is due to arrive in Croatian capital, Zagreb, on June 24 to attend a summit on energy cooperation in southeastern Europe. The summit begins June 23.’ These discussions are indicative of the failure to understand the reality that industrial energy supply from the fossil fuels is declining.
121
The energy income from insolation will continually moderate entropic growth of Gaia, primarily through photosynthesis generation of plant growth. This continually produces a degree of order in the ecosystem but does not compensate for the increase in disorder due to the activities of the Body of civilization.
122 The continuing natural bounty income will not be sufficient to sustain even a moderately powered down civilization. The remaining natural capital will have to be used wisely if the transition is to be relatively painless.
125
‘information’ is a very nebulous term. Most information available to humans can be regarded as noise in relation to its usefulness in operations. On the other hand there is natural information that is critical in operations and most of that is ignored in society’s striving for materialism.
126
Cities with all their infrastructure, including water supply and sewerage systems, are a major component in the Body of civilization that society would like to retain, if it were possible with what is left of natural capital!
128 He calls it ‘ Catastrophic Climate Destabilization’.
129 http://www.tni.org/detail_page.phtml?act_id=17458
‘The Environmental Movement in the Global South: The Pivotal Agent in the Fight against Global Warming’ by Walden Bello. Focus on the Global South, 12 October 2007.
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This article describes the movements in the Asian countries to address environmental and social issues, often against the push by western organizations for economic growth. It does not mention, however, the coming impact of the depletion of exhaustible natural resources.
130
http://www.peakoil.org.au/news/index.php?energy_profit.htm
‘The energy dynamics of energy production’ This article presents the results of a realistic modeling of installing a PV system to supply electricity in place of a fossil fuel powered system. It highlights the practical energetic difficulty in meeting energy demand as the availability of fossil fuel based energy declines.
131 http://rawstory.com/news/afp/Global_energy_use_seen_rising_57_pc_05212007.html
Global energy use seen rising 57 pct through 2030: US AFP. May 21, 2007. World energy consumption is expected to climb by 57 percent between 2004 and 2030, largely on surging demand in parts of swiftly developing Asia, the US government reported
Monday.’ This article illustrates an almost unbelievable misrepresentation of the reality.
The major sources of energy, the fossil fuels, are declining rapidly. Yet a government body is forecasting a major increase in the consumption rate based upon expected demand. That is, the practically limited supply is expected to surge to meet the demand.
This, of course, is the logic of economists, not realists!
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This http://www.paulchefurka.ca/What%20Happens%20Next.pdf
is a very convincing presentation on what industrialized civilization has done to the ecosystem so what the future of society may be. It is convincing for those who already have some understanding of what has happened. It is hardly convincing, however, for those skeptics who believe in the economic growth paradigm. It adds a little to what the Club of Rome was saying decades ago in ‘The Limits to Growth’. There have been numerous other convincing presentations since then for those prepared to look – which has been very few despite the greatly improved access to information provided by the Internet. There has been the emergence of informed groups, like the Movement, but they have little impact as yet.
Climate change is one aspect that has now hit the mainstream sufficiently for a degree of governance reaction and for business to latch on to novel opportunities. But economic growth is a contagion that has spread to developing countries. What is really required is
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exponential growth of understanding of what civilization has irreversibly done to the operation of the ecosystem, the subject of this essay. The quoted presentation makes only a small contribution to that understanding because it discusses why society has behaved in this fashion but does not mention the biophysical reality that industrialized civilization has irreversibly depreciated the available natural bounty capital to such an extent that a host of biophysical predicaments will continue to emerge as the physical capability to deal with them declines. Food and water supply problems are starting to vie with oil supply and climate change. This presentation mentions numerous other elements in the decline of natural bounty capital without emphasizing that that this collective natural capital is irreversibly depreciating and there is not a lot left. Increasing understanding of that fundamental point would provide appreciable stimulus to the development of progressive movements.
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There are really three aspects to economic growth. Growth is good where it improves the production of the goods and services that are the basic needs of the populace. Growth is bad where it facilitates the production of unnecessary stuff for the well off. It is, however, good where it contributes to improved cultural activities. Remember, economic growth can only be obtained by a speeding up of the consumption of natural bounty so should only be rationally promoted where it is clearly worthwhile.
135 Editorial, Nature 451, 223-224 (17 January 2008) ‘Deserting the hungry?’
Abstract: Monsanto and Syngenta are wrong to withdraw from an international assessment on agriculture. "This is a most reluctant decision." These are the words of a spokesman for the agriculture- industry body CropLife International speaking to Nature this week. The decision in question is that by two CropLife member corporations,
Monsanto and Syngenta, to pull out of the International Assessment of Agricultural Science and
Technology. This is an ambitious, 4-year, US$10-million project that aims to do for hunger and poverty what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has done for another global challenge.’ IAAST has commendable aims and objectives but the very limited scope will clearly ensure that it does not make a major contribution to the holistic problem of sufficient food. Its terms of reference do not include the impact of the declining availability of oil and natural gas on food production (including fertilizers and pesticides), transportation and storage. Nor does it include consideration of the impact of climate change and demographic issues on agriculture. So it may well come up with palliatives whilst superficially giving the impression of tackling the holistic problem.
136 http://www.321energy.com/editorials/chefurka/chefurka051207.html
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‘Peak Oil, Carrying Capacity and Overshoot: Population, the Elephant in the Room’ by
Paul Chefurka, May 13, 2007. This article is typical of those seemingly sound views but based on a very questionable presumption for the very simplistic model. The main point is that population is seen to correlate with rate of oil use. It then presumes that the population curve will essentially follow the oil usage rate curve so that population decline will follow peak oil. Doubtless there will be many who will question the scenario of population decline that it shows is likely. Chefurka makes some assumptions about the inability of renewables to take the place of oil. He makes many other judgmental assumptions that others may question. Therefore, many will dismiss the picture it portrays because of these uncertainties. I do not. The picture that unfolds in this essay is similar to that in Chefurka’s paper even though I cover the scenario in much greater detail to lessen the possible impact of assumptions. It is not just population that has grown but the structure of civilization as well, led by the growth of the cities. And oil is not the only non-renewable resource. In addition, I do bring out a fundamental factor that under pins what has happened. That is, every operation of civilization and its inhabitants entails using up some of the remaining irreplaceable natural bounty. That will continue even after the population peaks but it will be harder and is unsustainable.
137 For example, water has mounted center stage in eastern Australia and south west U.S.
138 ‘Spychips. How major corporations and government plan to track your every move with RFID’ by Katherine Albrecht and Liz McIntyre. http://www.spychips.com/
This article provides some insight into how government and business aim to increase surveillance of consumers by inserting RFID (radio frequency ID) chips in almost everything. It is a good example of technology chasing its tail! The proponents naturally concentrate on the beneficial aspects and ignore the clear likelihood of abuse. The reality is that this irreversible use of advanced technology is contributing to increasing complexity, so disorder, in society. It opens up the possibility of more counteracting events.
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like the impact of climate change
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John Michel Greer makes a cogent case that energy wasteful industrial civilization is likely to be followed a more energy efficient economy following the principle of eco
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succession so often found in nature. This is consistent with global entropic growth ensuring civilization becomes forcibly more efficient as the available natural bounty declines.
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‘Report: Internet Outages Could Occur By 2010 As Capacity Stalls’ By Paul
McDougall, InformationWeek , Nov 20, 2007. Booming demand for Internet services combined with insufficient infrastructure investment could leave the Web vulnerable to brown outs within three years, a study released Tuesday predicted.’ This article deals with another predicament that could become significant due to entropic growth.
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Frederick Soddy (September 2, 1877 – September 22, 1956) was an English radiochemist He received the 1921 Nobel Prize in chemistry for his research in radioactive decay and particularly for his formulation of the theory of isotopes. Frederick was also interested in technocracy and the social credit movement, which is evidenced by his publications Wealth, Virtual Wealth and Debt (George Allen & Unwin 1926) and
Money versus Man (1933). He recognised the limitations of conventional economics at a very early stage.
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‘The Great Emergency: Global Warming, Mass Death and Resource Wars in the 21st
Century’ by Juan Santos, Infoshop News, January 12, 2007
Australian Conservation Foundation
Earth Community Organization (ECO)
Building global communities require understanding of global problems this generation is facing. There are several major problems: conflicts and wars, no tolerance and compassion for one another, world overpopulation, human activities, as population increases the respect and value of a human life is in decline, insufficient protection and prevention for global health, scarcity of resources and drinking water, poverty, Fauna and
Flora species disappearing at a fast rate, global warming and global climate change, global pollution, deforestation, permanent lost of the Earth's genetic heritage, and the destruction of the global life-support systems and the eco-systems of the planet. We need to build global communities for all life on the planet. We need to build global communities that will manage themselves with the understanding of the above problems.
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Some other examples of these organizations include:
• The Earth Charter Initiative – the Earth Charter is a remarkable global doctrine for sustainability (www.earthcharter. org)
• Business Alliance for Local Living Economies – strategies for attaining healthy, sustainable economies for local communities(www.livingeconomie s.org)
• The International Forum on Globalization (IFG) – they have written a landmark book that defines workable economic models, Alternatives to Economic Globalization www.ifg.org
) http://www.narconews.com/Issue44/article2480.html
Thousands Rebel Against Neoliberalism in Chiapas. Almost 13 Years After the Armed
Uprising, Achievements of the Autonomous Governments Are Illustrated’ by Hermann
Bellinghausen, La Jornada, January 12, 2007. One day before the 13th anniversary of its armed uprising, the Zapatista Army of National Liberation (EZLN) welcomed followers from 30 countries, all adherents to the Sixth Declaration of the Lacandon Jungle, which
Lt.Colonel Moisés, in name of the "Zezta Internazional," called "an encounter of resistances and rebellions against global capitalism and neoliberalism, which has prepared for and planned the death and destruction of humanity and the natural environment." Or, how to prepare ourselves and continue organizing to resist and combat the "common enemy" of humanity.
145 Richard Heinberg, ‘The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies’
Kustler, James Howard. ‘The Long Emergency’
Walter Younquist, ‘Geodestinies’
"WorldChanging: A User's Guide to the 21st Century," (Harry N. Abrams Inc., New
York, 2006) is a compilation of thousands of proposed solutions for saving the planet from global warming, resource depletion, the destruction of wildlife habitat and world poverty. I have not examined the compilation but question the use of the term ‘solutions’.
‘Eating Fossil Fuels: Oil, Food and the Coming Crisis in Agriculture’, by Dale Allen
Pfeiffer, New Society Press
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http://www.mcdonough.com/cradle_to_cradle.htm
‘Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the way we make things’ by William McDonough &
Michael Braungart
North Point Press, 2002 William McDonough's new book, written with his colleague, the
German chemist Michael Braungart, is a manifesto calling for the transformation of human industry through ecologically intelligent design. Through historical sketches on the roots of the industrial revolution; commentary on science, nature and society; descriptions of key design principles; and compelling examples of innovative products and business strategies already reshaping the marketplace, McDonough and Braungart make the case that an industrial system that "takes, makes and wastes" can become a creator of goods and services that generate ecological, social and economic value.
Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post Carbon World by Richard Heinberg. The
Long Emergency: Surviving The Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty First Century by James Kunstler. The Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight: The Fate of the World and What
We Can Do About It Before It's Too Late by Thom Hartmann.
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".... it is impossible for any man to contribute to the social system the physical equivalent of what it costs the system to maintain him from birth till death - and the higher the physical standard of living the greater is this discrepancy. This is because man is an engine operating under the limitations of the same physical laws as any other engine. The energy that it takes to operate him is several times as much as any amount of work he can possibly perform. If, in addition to his food, he receives also the products of modern industry, this is due to the fact that material and energy resources happen to be available and, as compared with any contribution he can make, constitute a free gift from heaven. " - Robert L. Hickerson in
"Hubbert's Prescription for Survival, A Steady State Economy"
‘PLAN B 2.0: RESCUING A PLANET UNDER STRESS AND A CIVILIZATION IN
TROUBLE’ by Lester R. Brown, earth Policy Institute. ‘Now, for the first time, we have in PLAN B 2.0 a comprehensive, global plan. It includes a restructuring of the global
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economy, the eradication of poverty and stabilization of population, and the protection and restoration of the earth's forests, soils, and fisheries.’ This plan will doubtless be greeted enthusiastically by the well meaning, but naive. It does not mention how this society will operate without the exhaustible resources like oil. It conveys the false impression that there are practical means for restoring forests, soil and fisheries. It encourages the delusion that poverty can be eradicated when there are already a population way beyond the carrying capacity of the ecosystem. It talks about turning around an economy that has the objective of raping the ecosystem for the transient delights of some of the global society. It is, therefore, a plan that does not withstand any scrutiny. The following article is a sane look at the likelihood that Peak Oil will have a severe effect and how to cope with the ensuring difficult times. The author is convinced
(by some unspecified means) that an industrial energy crisis is very likely in the near future. He is one of a very small minority. The vast majority of supposedly informed people in the developed countries do not believe that an industrial energy crisis is possible. They do not even want to think about it, mainly because it is a complex issue contrary to the conventional dogma. The objective in this essay is to put forward a simple message that under pins such emerging crises as industrial energy supply.
Communities, Refuges, and Refuge-Communities - a Survivalist Response by Zachary
Nowak.
Posted by Rob under Peak Oil , Food , Localisation , Community Involvement , The
'Heart' of Energy Descent http://www.transiti onculture. org/?p=472
The Primitivist by Richard Heinberg
Critique of Civilization
A paper presented at the 24th annual meeting of the International Society for the
Comparative Study of Civilizations at Wright State University, Dayton, Ohio, June 15,
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1995. I read Heinberg’s article. There were some points that I believe worth comments.
He said
<Since our present civilization is patently ecologically unsustainable in its present form, it follows that our descendants will be living very differently in a few decades, whether their new way of life arises by conscious choice or by default.>
Our descendents will be able to make better conscious choices if they are aware of the ecological consequences of these choices. He went on to say
<the history of Western civilization as an inevitable evolutionary progression>
Western civilization has been unable to shed this delusion because they were unaware of the ecological consequences of their innovations. He then asked <The question is, shall we choose to gradually accustom ourselves to another way of life--one that more successfully integrates human purposes with ecological imperatives> We shall only be able to do this if we understand what the ecological imperatives are. My aim is to elucidate the fundamental ecological imperative. He also said <But how do we decide what to keep? Obviously, we must agree upon criteria. I would suggest that our first criterion must be ecological sustainability.>
This aiming for ecological sustainability just goes to show that he does not understand the limitations imposed by the ecological imperatives.
‘Agents of Change: Primal War and the Collapse of Global Civilization’ by Kevin
Tucker http://www.beatingheartspress.com/agentsofchange.html
"Civilization has emerged only recently...and it may yet prove to be an unsuccessful experiment." - anthropologist Roy Rappaport It is, in my opinion, a very good articulation of what has gone wrong with civilization and why. He also provides some sound comments on what should be done to ease the collapse. I am surprised that he does not mention the major predicament, there are too many of us.
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The Oil Drum http://www.theoildrum.com/ contains comments, data, graphs relating to the oil supply issue. This could well be the major issue, along with climate change, in the near future in industrialized countries. The more critical issue of over population is not mentioned.
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Yahoo Groups include EnergyResources, ROEOZ, Oz-Inform.
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The Archdruid Report http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/
TheOilDrum.com
CultureChange.org
FromTheWilderness.com
SurvivingPeakOil.com
LifeAfterTheOilCrash.net.
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Tom Whipple, Falls Church News-Press, regularly provides insightful comments. http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/climate_change/article2539349.ece
‘Deforestation: The hidden cause of global warming. In the next 24 hours, deforestation will release as much CO2 into the atmosphere as 8 million people flying from London to
New York. Stopping the loggers is the fastest and cheapest solution to climate change. So why are global leaders turning a blind eye to this crisis?’ By Daniel Howden, The
Independent UK, 14 May 2007. This article gives a grossly misleading view on the impact of deforestation on climate change and how easy it would be to cut back. Cut back on deforestation is an admirable object for a variety of sound environmental and social reasons but cannot substantially mitigate climate change.
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”It's unique to both human and geologic history. It has never happened before and it can't possibly happen again. You can only use oil once. You can only use metals once.
Soon all the oil is going to be burned and all the metals mined and scattered." M. King
Hubbert. Cosmologist Sir Fred Hoyle said in 1964, "It has often been said that, if the human species fails to make a go of it here on Earth, some other species will take over the running. In the sense of developing high intelligence this is not correct. We have, or soon will have, exhausted the necessary physical prerequisites so far as this planet is concerned. With coal gone, oil gone, high-grade metallic ores gone, no species however competent can make the long climb from primitive conditions to high-level technology.
THIS IS A ONE SHOT AFFAIR. IF WE FAIL, THIS PLANETARY SYSTEM FAILS
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SO FAR AS INTELLIGENCE IS CONCERNED. Civilization has made the long climb – at the expense of devastating the ability of the ecosystem to support its transient foundations. Henry George has been so completely obliterated that I have never heard of him. He was renowned in the U.S. over a hundred years ago. In a nutshell George's theory was a regime for maintaining equity of ownership and access to opportunity within a private enterprise economy. It prevented resource owners from using their capital advantage within the marketplace to increasingly concentrate their ownership and power within that marketplace. Easy to see why he was unpopular. Private property AND equity. He was probably more dangerous and threatening to the industrialists than was
Marx
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They take the common view that continuing population growth is not possible with finite natural resources. This, of course, is true. But that is only one side of the coin. The other side is that the available natural resources are declining. That is, it is a double whammy. Consumption is going up and availability is going down. It is a divergent situation. It cannot continue.
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their views on the reality have been almost totally drowned out by the noise of money dogma.
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Ron Patterson summed up the situation where people like myself try to sound out a warning. He said ‘People keep saying that WE must control our population, WE must conserve industrial energy, WE must develop renewables, WE must convert to solar, wind or whatever forms of industrial energy, WE must stop emitting greenhouse gases,
WE must do this, that or the other two. Actually we will do nothing of the sort. People, as a whole, never see enormous problems coming in the future and act to head them off.
What they really do is wait until the problem arrives, then react to that problem. It is very true that a few farsighted people, like most of those on this list, see the problem coming and also foresee the enormous consequences of that problem. Then we start screaming,
“We are running out of fossil fuels, we are poisoning the earth, we are killing off thousands of species, we are headed for disaster, the sky is falling, the sky is falling!”
And of course nobody pays even the slightest bit of attention. For every Cassandra warning us of the disaster that is to come, there is a Cornucopian telling everyone that
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this is all the propaganda of doomsayers who do not know what they are talking about.
There are several very good reasons for this behavior. That is, there is a very good reason why no one believes the Cassandras and believes the Cornucopians instead. People (in general) always believe to be true that which they desire to be true. And when they are presented with the choice of believing the Cassandra or the Cornucopian, they will most always believe the latter. Think about it, the lives of their children and grandchildren depend upon it, literally. And I do mean literally, I never use the word as a metaphor. If I tell you that your beautiful, wide eyed little child or grandchild will live in a world of unspeakable horrors but Julian or Bjorn Lomborg tells you that this is all nonsense, your child or grandchild will grow up in a world every bit as beautiful as the one we see around us today, which would you rather believe? Which do you think the vast majority of people will believe? So WE are a species who always do that which is in our nature to do. When we are presented with choices in beliefs, we will always choose the most pleasant belief, that is the belief that promises the most pleasant stress free future for us.
The vast, vast majority of people simply cannot live with the stress of the knowledge that we are completely destroying any chance for our children and grandchildren to live in the same beautiful world that we take for granted. Those who take the time to even listen to the Cassandras will deny our claims. But for the vast majority of people there is no need for any denial at all. The possibility of any kind of undesirable future is never even given the slightest consideration. They simply believe their world will last forever. They will shut their eyes and stop their ears to anyone who tries to tell them anything different.’ Yet most of these people recognize their own mortality and prepare for it. They try to leave a legacy. This essay will be my legacy.
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One would expect academics to be in the forefront in declaiming the ravishing of the ecosystem. But that is not so, in general. This is probably because they are so embroiled in their particular field.
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Doubtless they have the view that they can maintain their ascendancy while the masses take the brunt of the decline
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it basically looks at the dependence of over-populated over-consuming industrialized civilization on a vulnerable energy supply.
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157 http://www.thesocialcontract.com/artman2/publish/tsc1703/17_3_duncan.shtml
‘The Olduvai Theory: Terminal Decline Imminent’
By Richard D. Duncan, PhD . The
Social contract, Volume 17, Number 3 (Spring 2007) .
Issue theme: "The decline of industrial civilization"
This is a sound examination of the role of energy in developing industrialized society and the prospects as the supply goes into decline. The perspective is consistent with the one in this essay over the limited scenario covered. It embraces population growth but not the associated build up and maintenance of the Body of civilization. It covers the crucial role of energy but not the unintended consequences like climate change caused by burning fossil fuels. It focuses on these natural resources and neglects the others even though water supply and fertile soil are crucial to meeting basic needs. It mentions the operations of society but not the irreversible damage done to biodiversity. It provides trend evidence without providing the fundamental flaw in industrialization that all introduced procedures evoke an irrepayable eco cost.
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Like the proverbial frog in the pot of water - if the heat is turned up slowly the frog gets used to the heat and eventually boils to death.
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We've known at least since John H. Storer wrote "Web of Life" in 1953. Jeremy
Rifkin's "Biosphere Politics" in the early 1990s made it perfectly clear what was going on and why. "envisions the earth as a living organism, and the human species as a partner and participant, dependent on the proper functioning of the biosphere and at the same time responsible for its well-being," Those who have been paying attention know that this is what the Populist uprising in America was all about some 140 years ago. Systems thinkers like Ludwig von Bertellanfy and Ervin Laszlo have been pointing this out for over 50 years. Riane Eisler published "The Chalice and the Blade" over 20 years ago.
Credited by fellow progressive icon Noam Chomsky with changing the consciousness of a generation, Zinn's "A People's History of the United States" is now widely regarded as
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the authoritative story of resistance to government and corporate power in The New
World since 1492. I could list dozens more easily accessible examples.
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"Modern industrial civilization has developed within a certain system of convenient myths. The driving force of our industrial civilization has been individual material gain, which is accepted as legitimate, even praiseworthy on the grounds that private vices yield public benefits, in the classic formulation. Now, it's long been understood, very well, that a society that is based on this principle will destroy itself in time. It can only persist, with whatever suffering and injustice it entails, as long as it's possible to pretend that the destructive forces that humans create are limited, that the world is an infinite resource, and that the world is an infinite garbage can." "At this stage of history, either one of two things is possible: either the general population will take control of its own destiny and will concern itself with community interests, guided by values of solidarity, and sympathy and concern for others; or alternatively, there will be no destiny for anyone to control. As long as some specialized class is in a position of authority, it is going to set policy in the special interests that it serves. But the conditions of survival, let alone justice, require rational social planning in the interests of the community as a whole, and by now, that means the global community."-- N. Chomsky in Manufacturing Consent (1992)
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For centuries we have been taught that we humans were very clever in inventing machines that enabled our civilization to extract first coal, then oil then natural gas to provide the energy to drive industrialization. We were conditioned to believe technology would enable everlasting progress. The early signs that burning fossil fuels had unintended consequences were ignored in pursuit of the economic growth paradigm. We still have the great delusion that natural forces can cope with the vast and rapidly increasing amount of pollution of land, sea and air. Climate change is a major manifestation of our unintended disruption of the ecology. But the delusion that technology will solve the problem that it caused persists.
162 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/f65e71aa-1a14-11dc-99c5-000b5df10621.html
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‘What is at risk is not the climate but freedom’ By Vaclav Klaus
Published: June 14 2007
We are living in strange times. One exceptionally warm winter is enough - irrespective of the fact that in the course of the 20th century the global temperature increased only by 0.6 per cent - for the environmentalists and their followers to suggest radical measures to do something about the weather, and to do it right now.’ These views of the Czech President will doubtless be respected by many – unfortunately. They are typically anthropogenic and show ignorance of the fact that society is totally dependent on irrevocably using the limited natural bounty. We do not have the freedom to ravage our life support system!
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They often present selected arguments about what has happened that manage to confuse the more general reader and bias the inference. This makes it more difficult to discern the substantive position.
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Bjorn Lomborg, author of "The Skeptical Environmentalist," His views are soundly criticized in the following article. ‘Cool It - Interview with Bjorn Lomborg’ By Bill
Steigerwald, August 13, 2007. ‘Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist' s Guide to
Global Warming’ by Bjorn Lomborg (Knopf). ’"Cool It" is not the first book Denmark's
Bjorn Lomborg has written about global warming. Lomborg's heretical 2001 best-seller,
"The
Skeptical Environmentalist, " drew a firestorm of nasty criticism and unveiled hatred from environmentalists and the global warming crowd because it said most of the bad effects of climate change have been grossly exaggerated.’ This interview with Lomborg provides insight into his misunderstanding of how the ecosystem works. He has the common view that society is in control of what is happening yet recognizes that its activities are causing climate change. He does not recognize that cutting back greenhouse gas emissions will only slow down global warming. Adjustment of civilization’s activities can only, at best, mitigate climate change. He, like many others, chooses to ignore the many other deleterious impacts of human activities, like the devastation of the
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soil that is so crucial to the operation of a huge human population, together with the many other species.
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‘Winning the Oil Endgame’ by Amory B Lovins should be classified as a work of fiction as it envisages a hydrogen economy based upon many extremely doubtful premises with respect to time and natural resources needed to implement and the technical difficulties (that are well documented) that need to be overcome. It has the appearances to the non-technical of being a well-researched book yet it cannot withstand even a casual scrutiny by knowledgeable people. http://www.energytr ibune.com/ articles. cfm?aid=676 provides a critical examination of his damaging views.
166 http://www.dti.gov.uk/energy/whitepaper/page39534.html
Foreword by the Rt Hon. Alistair Darling MP
‘The Energy Review last year spelt out the big challenges we face: the need to work with other countries to tackle climate change by cutting greenhouse gas emissions, and the need to ensure we have secure energy supplies. Both are vital for our future prosperity. Both are global issues that call for international and UK action.’ It is quite fascinating that a government white paper should serve up such twaddle. There is no recognition of the fact that ‘prosperity’ has come from drawing down on the irreplaceable natural bounty. It talks about a range of energy measures that will, at best, take some pressure off the demand to use fossil fuels to meet increasing energy demands as the population and economy supposedly grows. It does not propose a realistic cut back on the greenhouse gas emissions and implies they will be able to obtain all the fossil fuels required.
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The Independent. ‘The Earth today stands in imminent peril ...and nothing short of a planetary rescue will save it from the environmental cataclysm of dangerous climate change. Those are not the words of eco-warriors but the considered opinion of a group of eminent scientists writing in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.
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By Steve Connor, Science Editor, 19 June 2007
Six scientists from some of the leading scientific institutions in the United States have issued what amounts to an unambiguous warning to the world: civilisation itself is threatened by global warming.’ This article adds appreciable weight to the judgment that climate change is under way. In any rational society, concerted global mitigating activity, the rapid reduction of GHG emissions, would be under way. Yet many political leaders are loathe to get on board else it harm their country’s economic growth (the increasing ability to irrevocably draw down the natural capital).
169 http://www.grist.org/comments/soapbox/2007/05/22/change/
‘Change the Rules, Change the Future. New energy rules could unleash an economic boom and help quash climate change’. By Timothy E. Wirth, Vinod Khosla and John D.
Podesta,22 May 2007. This article puts forward the view that renewable energy sources can lead to the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions necessary to slow down climate change whilst enabling continuing economic growth. The reality is that these measures may slow climate change down slightly but the proposals foster the delusion that economic growth is sustainable. The proposers, obviously, do not understand that their proposals will just stimulate entropic growth. The proposals may be worthwhile if meeting basic needs, including adapting to climate change. Fostering economic growth amongst wealthy countries is not going to serve that purpose.
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It is ironical that many governments proclaim that there is a ‘need’ for economic growth. They may as well say there is a ‘need’ for their immortality! Economic growth is self-destructive. The more rapid the growth the sooner the collapse. It is worthwhile only where it lifts people out of poverty, but that is rarely the case. Its main effect is to enable consumerism amongst the well off. It is synonymous with power growth, the objective of the powerful to use society and the environment for their own selfish agenda.
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‘
Depicting Europe’ by Perry Anderson http://www.lrb.co.uk/v29/n18/ande01_.html
‘An epiphany is beguiling Europe. Far from dwindling in historical significance, the Old
World is about to assume an importance for humanity it has never, in all its days of
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dubious past glory, before possessed.’ This article speculates on the re-emergence of
Europe as the world leader. It provides many reasons why this is possible. It leaves out, however, any consideration of where it will obtain sufficient natural resources to supply the operations. Gone are the colonial days when it was the prime predator. Surely he knows money will not suffice.
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Conservation Biology, Volume 21 Issue 2 Page 295 - April 2007. To cite this article:
Gary K. Meffe, Editor (2007). The Politics of Carbon Conservation Biology 21 (2), 295-
296. This article gives the impression of proposing a sound way forward for a civilization driven by the use of energy. It puts forward a number of positive moves. It can be criticized for giving the impression that continuing development is possible, especially as it makes no mention of over-population. It is, however, a typical anthropogenic view. It considers what may be worthwhile but does not consider the eco costs, particularly the draw down of natural capital. There is, therefore, no need to criticize it in detail. The concept is unrealistic. He asks the question ‘What thinking person (or even politician) could oppose public policies that simultaneously create healthy and rewarding jobs, stabilize climate, reduce the potential for war, create new and sustainable industries, improve human health while reducing health care costs, and improve prospects for national and individual security?’ I certainly would not oppose such an objective. But I know that the Dependence on Nature Law shows why this objective cannot possibly be attained.
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This includes ignoring the impossibility of continuing to draw down on irreplaceable natural capital.
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‘High hopes and hard truths dictate future. Efforts to fight global warming will be wasted unless we concentrate on energy efficiency’by Jeroen van der Veer the, CEO of
Royal Dutch Shell
‘That is why energy efficiency is so important. More than half the energy we generate every day is wasted. In an average car, about 20 per cent of every unit of petrol goes into moving a car forward, the rest is lost as heat. For an aircraft during take-off, the figure is
8 per cent. Only 35 per cent of burnt coal in a power plant becomes electricity; the rest,
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again, is lost as heat. What’s the point of producing ever more energy if we continue to waste most of it? Instead, we should aim to become twice as efficient in our use of energy by the middle of the century. That is entirely feasible, provided that the will is there. ‘ It is not possible to know whether van der Veerthe is just spouting rhetoric for the press and shareholders or he is just plain ignorant. Most of the ‘waste’ that he is referring to is not really waste in the sense that he implies. It is largely an intrinsic loss. For example, in cars, the absolutely maximum Carnot efficiency of the engine is about 35%. Then there are further losses due to friction. His comments imply that the automotive and aeronautical engineers are incompetent in not having improved the efficiency a lot. In actual fact, he is grossly incompetent in making his assertion.
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That looks at the benefits only.
http//uk.reuters.com/article/homepageCrisis/idUKPEK155250._CH_.242020071029
‘China birth defects soar due to pollution’ BEIJING, Oct 29 (Reuters) – ‘Birth defects in
Chinese infants have soared nearly 40 percent since 2001, a government report said, and officials linked the rise to China's worsening environmental degradation. The rate of defects had risen from 104.9 per 10,000 births in 2001,to 145.5 in 2006, affecting nearly one in 10 families, China's National Population and Family Planning Commission said in a report on its Web site ( www.chinapop.gov.cn
). This is but one example of the deleterious impact of industrialization on human health.
177 As generally recognised as the affordability of stuff!
178 But not quality of living!
179
He does not recognize the immutable duality of energy use causing carbon dioxide level to rise.
180 http://www.worldoil .com/Magazine/
’Peaking of world oil production: Recent forecasts.’ By Robert L. Hirsch, Senior Energy
Program Advisor, SAIC
’Predicting the timing of a peak may not be possible, but inadequate investment could make geological considerations moot. Because oil is a depleting, finite natural resource, world conventional oil production will reach a maximum, or peak, after which production will decline. Using differing methodologies and information of widely varying quality,
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experts and organizations have attempted to forecast the likely year of world conventional oil production peaking. The recent range of such estimates extends from late 2005 to an apparent denial that it will ever happen. Almost all forecasts are based on differing, often dramatically differing geological assumptions. Explicit account of investment rates in new and expanded production has been relatively rare.’ This type of activity consumes the intellectual energy of many analysts. It is based on the premise that the geological limits to the amount of oil that can be extracted are so far off in the future that they do not impact on business as usual. That is, the view is that the prevailing rate of entropic growth is acceptable. The future can learn to cope with the depleted natural bounty! Our leaders show that they are very adroit at buck passing.
181 That is a good reason for you to continue to use your intellectual energy to change your mindset by thinking through the arguments that follow.
183 http://www.countercurrents.org/goodchild221207.htm
‘The Post-Oil Economy: After The Techno-Fix’ By Peter Goodchild
22 December, 2007 Countercurrents.org
‘The path beyond petroleum begins by considering five principles: that alternative sources of energy are insufficient; that hydrocarbons, metals, and electricity are inseparable; that advanced technology is part of the problem, not part of the solution; that post-oil agriculture means a smaller population; and that the basis of the problem is psychological, not technological.’ That is not really so. The basis of the problem is failure to appreciate what is described by the Dependence on Nature Law. Every operation of society entails the irreversible draw down of natural bounty, most of which is exhaustible capital that is depreciating rapidly.
184 http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2007/2007_Hansen_etal_2.pdf
‘Climate change and trace gases’BY JAMES HANSEN, MAKIKO SATO, PUSHKER
KHARECHA, GARY RUSSELL, DAVID W. LEA AND MARK SIDDALL
This paper provides detailed views of experienced climatologists of past climate change forcings and the likely consequences of forcings due to industrialization, particularly with
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fossil fuel combustion. The prognosis here differs somewhat from that of the IPCC but the judgment is much the same. Society needs to reduce GHG emissions rapidly in order to reduce the likelihood of catastrophic climate change. This is the message that is now largely being accepted by governments and industry even though there are still vocal deniers, although their selective arguments do lack credibility.
185
He, like most commentators, does not mention oil depletion. This, presumably, is because it is so far off, in his estimation, that it is not on the horizon. He does not recognize its eco cost. He does not mention that it is contributing to entropic growth, together with many other issues.
188
This is a term for material wants that do not really add to quality of life although they contribute to the misleading ‘standard of living’.
190
Blacksmith Institute http://www.blacksmithinstitute.org/ten.php
World's Worst Polluted Places 2006
192 http://www.rachel. org/library/ getfile.cfm? ID=188
‘The Precautionary Principle. Puts Values First’ by Nancy Myers, Science and
Environmental Health Network. ‘The precautionary principle is an emerging principle of international law but has only recently been proposed in North America as a new basis for environmental policy. On the surface it is a simple, commonsense proposition: in the face of possible harm, exercise precaution. But the enthusiasm the principle has stirred among public advocates suggests it has a deeper appeal. It is, in fact, based on values related to “forecaring for life” and the natural world. The principle cannot effectively be invoked without stating these values up front. The principle makes it clear that decisions and developments in science and technology are based first of all on values and only secondarily on scientific and technological fact and process. Moreover, a precautionary approach is best carried out in the context of goals that embody the values of
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communities and societies.’ This is a fascinating view of the Precautionary Principle in that it is anthropogenic rather than being realistic, which was its intention. It is supposed to be a new basis for environmental policy. It centres, however, on human values rather than what actually happens to the operation of the ecosystem. Nevertheless, it does bring out the need for ‘forecaring’ but not in the context of when exhaustible resources run out.
193 The role of science in generating misunderstanding is considered in a later chapter.
195
The UN has a number of programs that are aimed at remedying predicaments, particularly in un-developed countries, without realistic consideration of the associated consequences. Reducing infant mortality in over-populated regions is not beneficial in a utilitarian sense unless accompanied by reducing reproduction rates.
196
The report by chief British government economist Nicholas Stern says the benefits of determined worldwide steps to tackle climate change would greatly outweigh the costs. It said the world does not have to choose between tackling climate change and economic growth, contradicting US President George W Bush who pulled out of the Kyoto Protocol against global warming in part because he said it would cost jobs. Stern has reputedly lost his job now because his report conflicts with the economic growth paradigm of the
Chancellor. On the other hand, Stern has been heartily criticized by many Realists for basing his arguments on conventional economics without proper consideration of the ecological realities. It is ridiculously biased as a dollar means a lot less to the well off
(countries and people) than to the vast majority.
197
Published on 1 Jan 2007 by UK Ministry of Defence. Archived on 27 Feb 2007.
‘The DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme 2007-2036’ by Development Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC)
A fascinating 91-page document that probably represents some of the best thinking by the global elite. It is quite unbelievable that such a seemingly knowledgeable body should put out such an unrealistic view. It essentially sees business as usual with continuing economic growth fostered by technobubblees. It stretches its credibility by suggesting hydrogen is an energy source and that nuclear fusion may save the day. It does recognize
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the likelihood of conflict over the remaining oil. It also makes the realistic premise that the middle classes will exert more influence in an endeavor to hold on to their standard of living.
198
‘Report on the State of Australia's Environment’. A comprehensive independent report tabled in Parliament by the Minister for the Environment and Heritage, Senator Ian
Campbell, outlines progress and pressure points on the state of Australia’s environment.
This is quite a remarkable example of obfuscation. It deals exclusivley with measures to reduce the damage being done to some aspects of the environment. It is obviously intended to make the politicians feel good about putting some bandaids on selected sores.
Science Daily — The hydrogen economy is not a futuristic concept. The
U.S. Department of Energy's 2006 Advance Energy Initiative calls for competitive ethanol from plant sources by 2012 and a good selection of hydrogen-powered fuel cell vehicles by 2020. It is quite astonishing that a seemingly reputable body like the DoE is proposing a system that has many well-known, basic technical disadvantages.
199
Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Network (EREN).
< http://www.eren.doe.gov/ > U.S. Electric Power Use Achieves New Record. They proudly proclaim an achievement in their rush to go over the cliff!
UK: SECURING FUTURE ENERGY SUPPLIES: WHERE NEXT FOR OIL AND
GAS?, Edinburgh , Tuesday 21 Nov 2006. Key issues include: Can we keep the lights on until long-term solutions to Britain ’s industrial energy needs are put in place?’ At the very best this is grossly misleading as it implies that there is a source of industrial energy that could meet the needs eventually.It is like an aged writer calling out for more time.
In a report, Australian Coal Exports to 2025, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and
Resource Economics says global consumption of black coal will grow by 52 per cent to
7.6 billion tonnes by 2025. This comment is enough to make one forget any forecast made by this government body. Apparently they have not read about how coal burning emits the greenhouse gases that are effecting climate chaos.
200 The United Nations Decade for Education for Sustainability began last year. The view is being taken that there must be links between business success and the sustainable use
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of natural resources. It seems almost incomprehensible that such an esteemed body should talk in terms of ‘sustainable natural resources’ when irreplaceable and exhaustible fossil fuels, aquifer water and fertile soil are major components of the natural resources.
201
As an example of this type of prejudice, Jeffrey A McNeely, chief scientist of IUCN, the World Conservation Union, based in Switzerland provides in The Green Room a very balanced view of the questions to be addressed in meeting the EU plans with respect to biofuels. It is based, however, on the conventional premise of economic, consumption and population growth so an increasing demand for industrial energy even with sound conservation measures. It manages to give the misleading impression that biofuels can make a major contribution to easing the industrial energy supply predicament. There is also the unintended consequence that the policy encourages the export of palm oil from
Malaysia, so deforestation to meet the demand for land to grow the trees. This is a classic example of where the total eco costs have not been taken into account, so giving a prejudiced view of the worth of biofuels. From the NY Times, January 31, 2007.’Once a
Dream Fuel, Palm Oil May Be an Eco-Nightmare’ by ELISABETH ROSENTHAL. This article provides a more realistic view of this question, especially as there is evidence that the clearance of peatlands is giving major carbon dioxide emissions. However, basing an evaluation on these emissions makes little sense when China and U.S. are installing dirty coal-fired power stations that will have a much greater impact on GHG levels.
202
‘Environment policy: standing on principles’
By: Geoff McAlpine,
3 November 2006
Although a mere snapshot of ‘eco-philosophy’, this article aims to provoke a broader discussion of the quest for better, values-based environmental policies by:listing four key characteristics of ’the environment’; connecting these with the values in ‘Reclaiming our Common Wealth: policies for a fair and sustainable future’; noting key environmental challenges for elaboration in future articles; and suggesting principles for environmental policies and tools for programs. This is, in the main, a very sound statement of the place of society in the ecosystem. It details some of the predicaments we have created and suggests how they should be tackled. It can be criticized for not recognizing the severity of the damage society has inflicted on the ecosystem and for
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recommending impractical remedial measures. It sees a place for technology without recognizing that technology has actually enabled the devastation that has occurred. The understanding of ecological basics contained in this essay would encourage a more realistic environment policy than in the above document.
203
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment provides appreciable data on some of the damage human activities have done to the ecosystem. The Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment, a four-year analysis of the world's ecosystems sponsored by the Worldwatch
Institute, showed that 15 out of 24 ecosystems essential to human life are "being pushed beyond their sustainable limits," toward a state of collapse that may be "abrupt and potentially irreversible." These ecosystems and the civilization that is killing them are both approaching an endpoint.’
204
Sustainable here refers to the material operations and does not refer to the nature of society nor to sustainable economics (a myopic intangible). There are many studies aimed at identifying a sustainable development of the operations of the foundations of society. This is not possible simply because industrial society is using up exhaustible resources and producing irreconcilable wastes. Heinberg proposes sustainability axioms 3 and 4 that address this issue. His axiom 5 can not be satisfied, however, so collapse is inevitable.
205 http://www.insidebayarea.com/timesstar/localnews/ci_5930069
Schwarzenegger's `moon shot. Governor's promises that his push for environmentally friendly gas will free drivers from high oil prices. By Douglas Fischer, STAFF WRITER
Article Last Updated: 05/18/2007 BERKELEY -- Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger described California's push to make fuels powering our automobiles more environmentally friendly as "our race to the moon," saying efforts to strip climatewarming carbon from gasoline will serve as a model for the rest of the world, reduce dependence on foreign oil, and provide drivers with "the best weapon" against rising fuel costs.’ This program makes a lot of sense in that it encourages drivers to choose from a
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range of fuels that have lower carbon emissions. But it will do little to mitigate climate change as it will not instigate a major drop in emissions. It is almost business as usual and is certainly good for his image of leading the way in fighting climate change and high oil prices!
207
Economic growth is good for lifting the standard of living of a community up to what is worthwhile given its limited natural bounty. Economic growth beyond that affordable level is detrimental as it is robbing the future for the excesses of the present. It is using up the available natural bounty too fast. Many communities have already gone beyond that affordable rate without having any inclination to slow down.
208 http://www.eugeneweekly.com/2007/05/10/news1.html
Discretion or Obligation? How should government view a looming catastrophe? By Mary
Christina Wood ‘Let me conclude. Global heating dwarfs any threat we have known in the history of Humankind. Giving our government political discretion to allow further damage to our atmosphere puts the future of this nation and the rest of the world in grave danger. If Americans take the lead to reframe our government's purpose as a trust duty to safeguard the commonly held atmosphere, we may soon find every other nation in the world engaged with us, not against us, in a massive, urgent defense effort to secure the systems of life on Earth for all generations to come.’ This article provides guidance on the change in attitude required to promote action to mitigate only the impact of climate change. This change in attitude is doing little to tackle the holistic problem.
209
Most people hope that economic growth means that they can look forward to a more prosperous future. That is what they have been taught to believe and recent history has reinforced that view, but only because the real cost, the draw down of the natural bounty, has been largely ignored until now.
210 It will aid clarification of the big picture to regard the ecosystem as having two components. Gaia is the natural one and Body is what I call the synthetic one that comprises the material foundations of civilization. Gaia is continuing to evolve although
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suffering from the influence of the Body. The Body is developing haphazardly. Its entropic growth has probably peaked.
212
The National Climatic Data Center¹s Climate Extremes Index
<< http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cei/cei.html
> http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov
/oa/climate/research/cei/cei.html
>.
As the figure shows, the most extreme year by far was 1998, and 2006 was the second most extreme year, followed closely by 2005. The fourteen least extreme years all predate 1981. The weather is becoming more extreme, as predicted by IPCC and other scientific studies.
213 The Durban Declaration on Carbon Trading As representatives of people's movements and independent organisations, we reject the claim that carbon trading will halt the climate crisis. This crisis has been caused more than anything else by the mining of fossil fuels and the release of their carbon to the oceans, air, soil and living things Through this process of creating a new commodity -- carbon – the Earth's ability and capacity to support a climate conducive to life and human societies is now passing into the same corporate hands that are destroying the climate.
214
There is little discussion of how much Western, particularly American, hegemony is ravaging scarce global resources but it could well be a major factor propelling
‘terrorism’. The implementation by the powerful of restricting security measures could well stem from covert recognition of their increasing vulnerability due to their exuberances. This is consistent with the thesis here of entropic growth, increasing disorder.
215
‘The Big Earth Book’ by James Bruges published by Alastair Sawday, 2007. www.sawdays. co.uk
’The prospect of catastrophe is an opportunity. WE ARE LIVING with crises. Poverty in the Third World is, to use the words of Michael Rowbotham, the greatest economic, cultural and humanitarian disaster, outstripping the two great wars for the sheer scale and depth of unrelenting tragedy. We now face runaway global warming which, if it
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reaches a tipping point, will be unstoppable. There are other crises such as population growth, inequality, antibiotics losing their effectiveness, and the huge decline in the bees that pollinate a third of our food.’ This book claims to come up with solutions to these problems generated by the malfeasances of civilization. It will doubtless be acclaimed by many – who have no understanding of the biophysical reality of what industrialization has already done.
217
Society is irrevocably drawing down on the limited natural bounty in order to develop and maintain the Body of its civilization by using destructive methods.
218
The novelty is in the articulation of the consequences of ecological operations, natural and synthetic and the destructive impact of the latter. There is reason to believe that many past cultures had an intuitive grasp of natural operations but this has largely disappeared in recent centuries. In ‘The Age of Exuberance’ http://anthropik.com/2006/10/the-age-of-exuberance/
Jason Godesky provides fascinating insight into how some cultures understood their place in nature.
219
There are many that discuss aspects of the consequences and these are sometimes looked at in the endnotes to add substantially to the central theme.
220 It is quite likely that this issue has already been covered by some author but I have not found it in my research.
221 Like a greater depression and a die off of population. There seems to be little consideration of how to handle the decimation of cities. The loss of affluence will also have to be borne.
222
Often measures have both appreciable positive and negative aspects that need to be taken into account in making rational decisions.
224
U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said it would take a technological breakthrough on par with the discovery of electricity to slow climate change. This illustrates the conventional prejudiced view. Civilization would not be in such dire straits if the down side of electricity generation had been appreciated decades ago.
225
Together with other forms of air, water and soil pollution.
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226 < http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2007/12/4/101359/842
‘Presidential Climate Action Project releases new plan for the next president.’ This is a well-thought-out and comprehensive plan for U.S. contribution to climate change mitigation and adaptation. It would entail such a change in American life style that it is extremely doubtful that any administration would try to adopt it. On the other hand, it is most unlikely to have a significant impact. At best, it is only likely to ease the power down slightly.
227
Schools and universities
228
The rapid growth in the available information in recent times has done very little to increase knowledge about how human activities use up the natural bounty and wisdom seems to have become lost in the noise!
229 http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0213/p04s01-usgn.html
’Internet helps Americans save more energy every year. For every kilowatt-hour of power that Internet-linked computers use, they save at least 10 times that amount, a recent study finds.’ By Mark Clayton | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor,
February 13, 2008. ‘The rate at which the United States is becoming more energyefficient has soared since 1995, when the computer-based Internet and communications revolution began soaking into US society.’ This is very misleading by being selective, as the amount of energy used has continued to rise. The article was sponsored by many corporations!
230
At a largely unaccounted eco cost
231 http://www.precauti on.org/lib/ 07/prn_food_ shortages_ loom.071218. htm
International Herald Tribune, December 17, 2007 ‘WORLD FOOD STOCKS
DWINDLING RAPIDLY, UN WARNS’
[Rachel's introduction: The world food supply is dwindling rapidly and food prices are soaring to historic levels, the top food and agriculture official of the United Nations warned Dec. 17.] By Elisabeth Rosenthal ROME: In an "unforeseen and unprecedented" shift, the world food supply is dwindling rapidly and food prices are soaring to historic levels, the top food and agriculture official of the United Nations warned.
232 In the face of all these daunting challenges, the world must produce more food every year to keep up with population growth. Zafar Adeel, director of the International Network on Water, Environment and
Health (INWEH), has calculated that more food will have to be
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produced during the next 50 years than during the last 10,000 years combined.’ This is typical anthropogenic attitude. It ignores the fact that what is achievable is totally dependent on what is available from the natural bounty, which has been seriously depleted in the past century.
233
currently very serious in regions of Africa and Asia.
234
the (not remote) possibility of nuclear wars could well make historical decimation of populations look trivial
235
AIDS, malaria are having a significant current impact and others are deemed to be quite likely, especially as globalization is enthusiastically embraced by many creatures.
236
GENEWA (Reuters) - Four million children under the age of five die every year due to environmental hazards including polluted air or water, or exposure to chemicals, the
World Health Organisation (WHO) said. It is ironical that there are also increasing health problems like obesity, cancer and diabetes amongst the well off.
237
Which are becoming more frequent and more devastating due to climate change. Their impact on civilization is also increasing with population growth. The Sumatran tsunami is just one example.
238 ‘ Asian Countries Pledge to Tackle Health Problems Linked to Environment’,
August 09, 2007 - By Michael Casey, Associated Press. BANGKOK, Thailand –
‘Fourteen Asian countries pledged Thursday to tackle health problems related to everything from climate change to air pollution that cause the deaths of nearly 7 million people each year.’ This program would aid population growth, so exacerbate other developing problems.
239 http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/08/070813162438.htm
‘Pollution Causes 40 Percent Of Deaths Worldwide, Study Finds’
Science Daily — About 40 percent of deaths worldwide are caused by
water, air and soil pollution, concludes a Cornell researcher. Such
environmental degradation, coupled with the growth in world population, are major causes behind the rapid increase in human diseases, which the World Health
Organization has recently reported. Both factors contribute to the malnourishment and
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disease susceptibility of 3.7 billion people, he says. David Pimentel, Cornell professor of ecology and agricultural
sciences, and a team of Cornell graduate students examined data from more than 120 published papers on the effects of population growth, malnutrition and various kinds of environmental degradation on human diseases. Their report is published in the online version of the journal Human Ecology and will be published in the December print issue.
240 Consider the hypothetical situation where oil was realistically priced. The pricing mechanism would have taken into account that it is a limited resource, which is the source of concentrated energy in a liquid that makes it easy to transport, store and use. The mechanism should also take into account the lack of a viable alternative and that oil is the basis for the production of many items useful to society. It should also take into account that the use of oil has numerous deleterious impacts on the operation of the environment, including contributing to climate change. Oil would have cost many times the price society is used to. The material standard of living, especially in cities in developed countries would have been a lot lower, although the quality of life would probably have been higher. But this speculation is worthless. Big business latched on to this source of energy slaves to make a killing and governance went along with this ravaging of nature’s benevolence and the masses joyfully acquiesced.
241
‘Planet Gets a Lemon as Global Car Industry Revs Up. World vehicle production topped 67 million vehicles in 2006. The world's auto manufacturers produced a record 67 million vehicles in 2006, putting more cars on the road than ever before, according to a new Vital Signs Update from the Worldwatch Institute. While global production grew 4 percent last year, China increased its production by nearly 30 percent, overtaking
Germany to become the third largest producer. “America's car addiction is becoming a global phenomenon with no sign of reversing," says Worldwatch Senior Researcher
Michael Renner, who authored the update.’
< http://www.worldwatch.org/click/5197/20070718
This article indicates that the American carmania addiction is still spreading rapidly despite the increasing evidence of its cancerous influence.
242
‘Study: Ship diesel contributes to deaths. Sulfur emissions far higher than what comes out of car tailpipes.’ The Associated Press http://www.msnbc. msn.com/id/ 21689708/
Nov. 8, 2007, HONG KONG - Ships belching toxic fumes from diesel fuel contribute to
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the deaths of tens of thousands of people in Europe, Asia and the United States each year, claims a U.S. report released this week.
243 They spew their exhaust out at altitude where it can do the most harm to the climate!
244 http://www.fcnp.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2322&Itemid=35
‘The Peak Oil Crisis: Diesel’
by Tom Whipple, 03 January 2008
This article highlights the lack of resilience of American road transport to diesel supply problems, as trucks are more vital to operations than private cars.
245
The growing provision of alternative fuels from, for example, biomass and coal, is likely to belatedly meet only some of the demand.
246 The eco cost accounts for all actual irreversible material operations in the ecosystem entailed. Many of these costs are recovered in nature by compensatory operations but this is not so in industrial operations.
247
< http://www.newswithviews.com/Peterson/rosalind4.htm
> http://www.newswithviews.co
m/Peterson/rosalind4.htm
NewsWithViews.com
By Rosalind Peterson
July 22, 2007
OUR DEAD AND DYING TREES
Many trees have died or are in the process of dying in large areas across the United States and in Alaska. What is triggering such a broad decline and die-off response to entire suites of plant and tree communities?’ This article details the perplexing die-off of trees in regions of the U.S.
The chemicals emitted in the contrails of airliners is put forward as a likely causative factor.
248 Obesity is the most noticeable one!
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249 Which is bound to limit overpopulation in some regions.
250
In short, the use of farmland worldwide for bio-ethanol and other biofuels—burning the food product rather than using it for human or animal food—is being treated in
Washington, Brazil and other major centers, including the EU, as a major new growth industry. In 2006 US farmland devoted to biofuel crops increased by 48%. None of that land was replaced for food crop cultivation. The tax subsidies make it far too profitable to produce ethanol fuel. Prof. M.A. Altieri of Berkeley University estimates that dedicating all USA corn and soybean production acreage to biofuels would only meet 12% of gasoline and 6% of diesel needs. He notes that though one-fifth of last year's corn harvest went to bio-ethanol, it met a mere 3% of energy needs.
251
Global food crisis looms as climate change and fuel shortages bite
Soaring crop prices and demand for biofuels raise fears of political instability
John Vidal, environment editor The Guardian Saturday November 3 2007 http://www.guardian .co.uk/environme nt/2007/nov/ 03/food.climatec hange This article provides appreciable detail on the rapidly developing food crisis for a high proportion of the global population.
252 For the well off suffering from carmania
253 http://news. nationalgeograph ic.com/news/ 2005/12/1209_ 051209_crops_ map.html
‘Farming Claims Almost Half Earth's Land, New Maps Show’ by James Owen for
National Geographic News, December 9, 2005. This article notes the large proportion of the land surface taken over for farming. It suggests that improved methods can enable the increased food production necessary with population growth. It makes no comment about the problems caused by the rapidly increasing demand for meat. It makes no comment about the depleting supply of the fossil fuels that drive current food production. It makes no comment about the damage currently being done to biodiversity. It is, consequently, not a very credible view of the existing situation.
254
‘UN warns it cannot afford to feed the world’ By Javier Blas and Jenny Wiggins in
London, July 15 2007
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http://www.ft. com/cms/s/ 7345310a- 32fb-11dc- a9e8-0000779fd2a c.html
’Rising prices for food have led the United Nations programme fighting famine in Africa and other regions to warn that it can no longer afford to feed the 90m people it has helped for each of the past five years on its budget.’ This is one sign of the emerging food crisis.
255 ‘Dirt Isn't So Cheap After All’ By Stephen Leahy, Inter Press Service, 30 August
2007. Brooklin, Canada - Soil erosion is the "silent global crisis" that is undermining food production and water availability, as well as being responsible for 30 percent of the greenhouse gases driving climate change. "We are overlooking soil as the foundation of all life on Earth," said Andres Arnalds, assistant director of the Icelandic Soil
Conservation Service. "Soil and vegetation is being lost at an alarming rate around the globe, which in turn has devastating effects on food production and accelerates climate change," Arnalds told IPS from Selfoss, Iceland, host city of the International Forum on
Soils, Society and Climate Change.
256 http://seattlepi. nwsource. com/local/ 348200_dirt22. html
’The lowdown on topsoil: It's disappearing. Disappearing dirt rivals global warming as an environmental threat’ By TOM PAULSON, P-I REPORTER.’The planet is getting skinned.’ This article provides details of the horrendous rate of topsoil loss, primarily by bad agricultural practices. It is having a significant, but largely un-noticed, impact on natural capital depreciation.
257 http://peakfood. co.uk/2007/ 08/19/peak- phosphate/
‘Peak Phosphate’ August 19th, 2007 by John The following is part of an article by
Patrick Dery and Bart Anderson on Energybulletin. net. "The depletion analysis pioneered by Hubbert can be applied to other non-renewable resources. Analysts have looked at peak production for resources such as natural gas, coal and uranium. This is just another example of the way that we have raised the carrying capacity of the Earth to a level that is not sustainable. We must look at ways to recycle phosphates and other nutrients instead of flushing them down the sewers of the big cities.” The problem is that recycling these nutrients would require the use of vast amounts of natural resources for the infrastructure required.
258
To meet the wants of the well off
259
‘Forget oil, the new global crisis is food’ by Alia McMullen, Financial Post, January
04, 2008
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http://www.financia lpost.com/ story.html? id=213343
BMO strategist Donald Coxe warns credit crunch and soaring oil prices will pale in comparison to looming catastrophe. A new crisis is emerging, a global food catastrophe that will reach further and be more crippling than anything the world has ever seen. The credit crunch and the reverberations of soaring oil prices around the world will pale in comparison to what is about to transpire, Donald Coxe, global portfolio strategist at BMO
Financial Group said at the Empire Club's 14th annual investment outlook in Toronto on
Thursday.
260
of the hungry billions.
261 http://www.enn.com/press_releases/2366
Published February 21, 2008. Scientists Create First Map Of Global
Emerging Disease Hotspots. NEW YORK, NY In a paper published by the leading scientific journal Nature, scientists at the Consortium for
Conservation Medicine (CCM) < http://www.wildlifetrust.org
>Wildlife
Trust New York, the Zoological Society of London (ZSL), Columbia
University (New York) and the University of Georgia have announced a major breakthrough in the understanding of what causes diseases like
HIV/AIDS and SARS to emerge, and how to further predict and prevent future devastating pandemics by plotting a global map of "Emerging
Disease Hotspots." This article provides information on the developing disease hotspots, a major disruption of the operation of the ecosystem, so an element in the depreciation of natural capital. It notes the resources that will have to be used in remedial action.
262
The vulnerability of the information stored in (short term) computer systems is starting to arouse concern. The loss of much of this information to future generations will reduce their ability to cope.
263
It is using money as a tool to make money. It is a powerful RFM for building up and restoring industrial capital. But it cannot restore natural bounty capital. That irreversibly declines with use.
264
‘You do not have a democracy if the people do not control the money..for the money controls everything..’ This quote from a comment on the place of democracy in the US emphasizes the delusion that has fostered the devastation by society of its life support system, nature. Money will become increasingly worthless as the available natural capital declines.
266
Many of these natural operations are not formalized as laws. We just take them for granted. For example, we know that water invariably finds its way down hill (under the
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guidance of gravity). It is seeking out equilibrium. This is like the heat in a cup of coffee that tends to dissipate into the colder air. That flow of energy is formalized as the Second
Law of Thermodynamics. On the other hand, we know that apricot trees are selfpollinating while apple trees are not. Specialists may know why this happens. But orchardists only need to know what happens.
267
Many aspects of the operation of the ecosystem are still mysteries. For example, how do migratory birds know when and where to migrate.
268
I use this term to denote those operations instigated by humans. Many add to natural operations while others are substitutes, effective and otherwise. We are so taken with our ability to invent these operations that we often lose sight of the worth of the natural ones.
269 http://www.emc.maricopa.edu/faculty/farabee/biobk/BioBookEner1.html
provides a good general description of the First and Second Laws as commonly perceived. It discusses the circumstances where a system may have potential energy but no mention is made of how that potential is reached!
270
Lambert takes the view that the First and Second Laws of Thermodynamics describes why systems behave in the specified manner. This is the opposite view to what is taken here. I refer to what circumstances are summarized by these Laws.
271 There are many cases where the Fourth Law leads to the potential but the Second Law operation does not occur until it is activated. Biological and geological forces provided the energy potential in coal over eons. This is the Fourth Law in operation. This chemical energy is stored until ignition of combustion activates the Second Law process.
272 http://www.entropylaw.com/entropy2ndlaw.html
‘Entropy and the Second Law of Thermodynamics’ contains a description of the action of the Second Law by Swenson that is similar to that by Lambert. It mentions that the potential has to exist but makes no mention of how that potential arises. This is a crucial factor here as we are examining what happens to the complete system rather than a part in isolation. Using the term ‘Fourth Law’ is a useful short hand in indicating a generative process.
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273 An earthquake was the event that set off the Sumatran tsunami, a natural dissipative process. It came about because of the forces involved in plate movements generated the potential, so an example of the Fourth Law.
274
There have been a number of Fourth Laws proposed but none have received widespread acceptance.
275
a useful analogy is to imagine a force pushing a ball up an order hill. That is representative of the Fourth Law in operation. When the ball reaches the crest it is in the position to spontaneously roll down the hill – the Second Law in operation, order to disorder.
276
Senescence or aging is a complex biological process involving the deterioration of many functions in the body. We do not need the details to know that it occurs. It can be likened to an increase in entropy (a tendency to go from order to disorder), so an example of the application of the Second Law, which summarizes how natural systems operate.
However, as with all life systems, the senescence is preceded by a growing phase that can be regarded as operation of the Fourth Law. The life of an organism can be summarized as the Fourth Law followed by the Second Law. This is regarded here as the Life Axiom.
It is convenient to refer to the Life Axiom because it identifies the common characteristic of a wide range of natural and synthetic operations, not just the lives of plants and animals. The coal-fired power station discussed below follows the Life Axiom. It is to be expected that it will be demolished when its useful life is over. That is its life will be terminated by a decision.
277 The hydrological cycle, the circulation of water, is one example.
278
For example, water in the hydrological cycle.
279
Lovelock takes the view that the self-regulation of Gaia requires a goal, maintaining an ecosystem habitable for its inhabitants. There is nothing in the novel features of this essay that conflict with that view. In fact, these novel features indicate that the mechanisms introduced by humans are not self-regulating. They are, consequently, inherently destructive of the ecosystem.
280
What are called natural catastrophes, like earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions and hurricanes, are all natural examples of the Life Axiom in operation. They are not
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necessarily inherently destructive and the ecosystem has been able to eventually cope with these traumatic events over eons.
281
Day-night, the seasons and the hydrological are natural cycles that we live with. The carbon cycle has under pinned the operation of the plant-animal couplet for eons although we now have been able to disrupt it to a small, but seemingly very damaging, extent, so climate change.
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Western countries have been the dominant cancers with the U.S. being the leader in the 20 th
century but now being displaced by the Asian giants, particularly China. Other countries, like Saudi Arabia and Brazil, are doing their utmost to emulate the established degraders of the ecosystem for their temporary materialistic edifices.
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Can you think of any cyclic operations we have invented?
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Studies of previous civilizations tend to support that the Life Axiom applied to some of them. They went through the growth phase (Fourth Law) by exuberant use of the available natural resources then aged (Second Law) when they tended to exceed the carrying capacity. They declined for lack of sustenance. This trend has tended to globalize and exacerbate in recent centuries. I relate this to the growth of order in the
Body of civilization in past centuries but with signs now of the trend to disorder, so entropic growth.
285 Regrowth of the forest and rebuild of the houses are respective examples that follow a wildfire.
287 We need not wonder why the depression was formed. Simply, it had occurred. Just as the force of gravity exists.
289
This term is a combination of geological, biological and physical mechanisms that govern the operations of the ecosystem. Ecological reality is the way our world operates as far as we can know from our experience and the information we obtain from what is observed and measured. Science gives us backing understanding of many, but by no means all, aspects.
290
The masses will continue their ‘infantile self-gratification’ in the words of one of the
Cassandras while the powerful will continue their manipulation of the masses and the ecosystem for their short-sighted gains.
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291 An article on the Nobel Prize for Economics won by Professor Edmund Phelps of
Columbia University puts economic growth in perspective. He sees ‘dynamism’ – the creation and development of new ideas – as the key to fostering growth over the long run.
This is a typical, anthropogenic view. It is looking at the positive without consideration of the negative. It would be a realistic view if it took into account the eco cost, the real cost of using the natural bounty. Often ideas lead to marketable products for reasons other than their intrinsic value to the community. They are wants rather than needs. In addition, ideas are not worthwhile if the resultant operations come at a greater eco cost than those they replace. Airliners have largely replaced trains in recent decades. This is now being seen as a retrograde step because the airliners come at a greater eco cost (usage of fuel and contribution to climate change) whilst the perceived difference in value (largely time of journey) has decreased. Many of the ‘advances’ in electronics replace sound devices only because of the marketing hype, which says nothing about how they are contributing to ecological disaster.
As Herman Daly famously announced, the economy may grow but the ecosystem does not. He would have been more correct if he had said ‘but the ecosystem can only decline’. This is one of the most important precepts in adjusting your mindset. Economic growth is inherently destructive of our life-support system is only part of the story. The operation of civilization is destructive of its life-support system is closer to the grim truth, economic growth just speeds the ravaging up.
292
The Age had an essay ‘The search for stability’ by Ian MacFarlane, governor of the
Reserve Bank of Australia from 1996 to 2006. He discussed the ups and downs of the economic scene over the past century. He conveyed the conventional view of the virtue of economic growth and praised Keynesian economics. Yet there was no mention of the fact that this growth was based on using up exhaustible natural resources garnered from all over the globe. It is absolutely unbelievable that someone in such a prominent position was so naïve. The fact remains that he was and is. And most prominent people continue to share his views.
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293 It really is obvious – for those prepared to look away from TV and think about what is happening globally. The information is now more readily available, via the Internet, to the thinking.
294
Money is, in the words of Buddhist writer David Loy, “the flight from emptiness that makes life empty.” Nevertheless, it is an artifice of Homo sapiens that will continue to define how we live whilst there is sufficient natural bounty left to sustain the delusion.
295
Oil price has varied between $30 and $100 per barrel over the past 3 years while extraction has varied little from 85million barrels per day. That is, the eco cost, which varies little with each barrel extracted, has varied little while the financial cost has gone up (and down) a lot. This is an example of how disconnected the two costing mechanisms can be.
296
Many encourage consumption of worthless stuff made using up natural resources.
They are inherently misdirected because they do not account for natural capital draw down and aim at a manufactured demand. Their primary motivation is to make profits for the businesses
297 CAPITALISM REPLACES COMMERCE. Prior to central banking and creditbased capital markets, commercial markets were not dependent on credit. They were free markets, unaffected by the spigots of credit and debt. Free markets operate without the artificial stimulation of credit-based money; free markets respond to real needs and real demands, not to the incessant need of bankers to indebt society in their drive to enrich themselves - a drive that produces individual profits in the short run and collective economic ruin later.
298
Good article from the 22 April 2007 NYT by Michael Pollan, a contributing writer, the Knight professor of journalism at the University of California, Berkeley. His most recent book is "The Omnivore's Dilemma." http://www.nytimes. com/2007/ 04/22/magazine/ 22wwlnlede. t.html?ex= 1186459200& en=d2ca315a78998 fab&ei=5070
The first paragraph:"A few years ago, an obesity researcher at the University of
Washington named Adam Drewnowski ventured into the supermarket to solve a mystery.
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He wanted to figure out why it is that the most reliable predictor of obesity in America today is a person's wealth. For most of history, after all, the poor have typically suffered from a shortage of calories, not a surfeit. So how is it that today the people with the least amount of money to spend on food are the ones most likely to be overweight?" This article describes how the American system makes bad food cheaper than good food to the detriment of human and environmental health. The ‘farm bill’ subsidizes corn, soya and wheat to the detriment of fresh food. It fosters the profitability of agribusinesses to the detriment of eaters globally. There is growing recognition of the failings of this policy but little corrective action has been instigated.
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Quite a few Cassandras argue that a sustainable society, albeit much smaller and relocalized, is achievable in due course. This may be so for some special regions but the
Dependence on Nature Law and Life Axiom show that sustainability of the current civilization is not possible. The natural bounty is being used up but more rapidly in some countries than in others even as it is declining swiftly globally.
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‘DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY GROWS FASTER THAN THE GRID’ by Dalia
Naamani-Goldman, Oct 16, 2006. WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Over the next decade, U.S. demand for electrical power will grow more than three times as fast as new supplies, a utilities industry report said Monday. This is a typical delusional view stemming from the belief in business as usual. Clearly there is no thought given to the question of where the natural resources are coming from. Doubtless it presumes the U.S. will be able to import all the oil and gas that it wants, despite the increasing demands on these diminishing natural resources from other countries. It also presumes that the copious supplies of coal can be burnt, despite what that does to the global climate and human health.
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The probability of the Greater Depression is discussed later. This possibility is of little concern to the business elite - for now.
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This includes the natural environment together with the built environment (cities, roads etc) installed by humans.
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304 Even now, science can’t say why we ought not to harm the environment except to say that we shouldn’t be self-destructive. It does not recognize that the depletion of exhaustible natural resources is not sustainable. It does not recognize that the environment is a complex self-regulating system that has evolved but can only slowly adapt to the rapid disruptions due to industrialization.
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on paper in most instances. There are only some countries that have actually practiced it.
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The emergence of these energy slaves contributed to the demise of (human) slavery about two centuries ago. But business is still dependent on human wage slaves as well as the energy slaves. Slave labor is a major problem in urban areas of many of the developing and undeveloped countries. They serve to provide cheap goods to the well off!
This article describes one example of this common practice. ‘High price paid for cheap UK clothes. Workers endure up to 84-hour weeks to survive’ by Karen McVeigh in Dhaka,Monday July 16, 2007, The Guardian http://www.guardian .co.uk/supermark ets/story/ 0,,2127245, 00.htm
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and its habitation robbery for agriculture and urbanization.
308 ‘Deaths of Amphibians and Reptiles Signal Climate Warning’ http://www.truthout.org/issues_06/041807EB.shtml
‘A protected rainforest in one of the world's richest biodiversity hotspots has suffered an alarming collapse in amphibians and reptiles, suggesting such havens may fail to slow the creatures' slide towards global extinction.’ This is one example of the type of empirical evidence that supports the scientific view in IPCC report that climate change is under way and that the ecosystem is finding it hard to adapt.
309 When not based on false premises!
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There is no doubt that future generations will wonder at the stupidity of the blatant consumers of today’s society. They will question the right to draw down the natural bounty so rapidly, often for no worthwhile reason.
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311 It is almost laughable how much fuel is expended to try and ensure access to some of the remainder. It is a classic lose-lose situation for the U.S. but not for the oil companies and the military/industry complex.
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You have to be prepared to spend the time to think through the arguments. It will require a radical change in your thinking process. That is the only way you can change your mindset to recognize the reality, not the blarney you have been conditioned to believe. Almost all common views are anthropogenic. They consider only how society operates and ignores how dependent these operations are on using and abusing natural resources. These common views are based on the premise that human society knows what they are doing. You need to cast that view aside and look objectively at what has happened. What human activities have really done.
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The predicament to be addressed is related to the way the glob (the heterogeneous views of our society) is going compared to the desirable way, facing up to reality. That is the way for the smart people.
315
Joseph Tainter describes how a number of previous civilizations went down the wrong track in ‘The Collapse of Complex Societies’.
316 There are quite a few sites that provide sound suggestions on how you can prepare your lifeboat for the decline, the Titanic crashing into the iceberg.
317 They will be the ones to have benefited from capitalism and are unknowingly hastening the decline of the Body of civilization.
318
You will share that with the thousands globally who can see the iceberg ahead but can not get the crew of the Titanic to look.
319
Many people who have endeavored to gain understanding of what is happening have been bewildered by the conflicting views being articulated. One of the principle aims in my research was to reduce the uncertainty attributable to what human activities have done to the ecosystem. The picture, articulated here is very clear, but you will have to think through the arguments presented to get that picture in your mind.
320
‘ Introduction to Horizontalidad: Voices of Popular Power in Argentina’ by Marina
Sitrin, 23 January 2007 http://upsidedownwo rld.org/main/ content/view/ 596/32/
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Whilst this article focuses on the emergence of people power in Argentina it also mentions the movement in numerous other countries. It provides hope for the development of the Earthly Revolution because this people power is growing rapidly.
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There will be a real challenge to maintain the cultural achievements, the good things in the Mind, while striving to ease the pain in the aging Body.
322
It is interesting that there is the study of hedonics, the assessment of what makes people happy. It is based on the false premise that society can continue to ‘progress’ in the sense of having more money and material wealth. Doubtless a more realistic study will gain in strength. It will be aimed at determining how to regain a sense of purpose and value by doing rather than having.
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This profit enables the shareholders to do more damage as most of them are already enjoying a comfortable standard of living.
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‘ The mass of mankind is ruled not by its intermittent moral sensations, still less by self-interest, but by the needs of the moment. It seems fated to wreck the balance of life on earth - and thereby to be the agent of its own self-destruction. What could be more hopeless than placing the Earth in the charge of this exceptionally destructive species.’~
John Gray, Straw Dogs
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I was an aeronautical research scientist
327 I was derided at one stage by a newspaper columnist calling me an ‘environmentalist’.
I responded by saying I was a ‘realist’.
328 A major one is when is the demand for oil likely to exceed the supply. This is called
‘Peak Oil’. There are some seemingly knowledgeable people in government, academia and industry who claim that there will be no problems in meeting the burgeoning demand for decades. On the other hand, there are many from similar sources who believe that a supply crisis is already emerging and is the reason for the pronounced upward trend in price over the past four years. This wide range in views amongst seemingly knowledgeable people seems to be inexplicable. Peak oil is not the only issue where there is so much uncertainty. These contrary views can lead to indecisiveness about single issues but this is reduced, as here, when the issues are considered in conjunction. Peak oil
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may be occurring now or it may be decades away but the totality of the irreversible damage human activities have already done to the ecosystem is indisputable.
329
I was helped by items like the Royal Society, Britain's premier scientific academy, writing to ExxonMobil to demand that the company withdraws support for dozens of groups that have "misrepresented the science of climate change by outright denial of the evidence".
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By invoking appropriate novel natural axioms as well as addressing the problems generated by misleading terminology.
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Because I had been conditioned, like almost everyone, to take the anthropogenic view of what was happening.
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One thing I learnt surprised me because it was so obvious – when it hit me – yet almost no one ever thinks of it. Simply, everything we do and use requires the consumption of natural resources and or the use of natural services. We breathe air and drink water. That’s no problem for most. Our cars irreversibly burn a fuel that nature took eons to produce. That new house is a credit to the architect and builder but all the materials came out of the ground. I had a good sail down the Tamar River, just one of nature’s services we could not do without. Many cities and towns are very dependent on the services that rivers provide. I need not go on. Adjust your mindset: everything we humans do and use employs natural resources and services. We are totally dependent on their availability, even as we destroy them and use them up. Money does not affect that dependence. If I were on a desert island with $10,000 in my pocket, I would still starve or die of thirst.
333 I use the term ‘Body’ to denote the synthetic ecological operations of civilization, as opposed to the natural operations of Gaia. It is a convenient categorization for the purpose of discussion. The occurrence of mixed operations does not really influence the basic argument.
334
That is the reality but the Mind thinks otherwise. It ignores most of the multitude of symptoms.
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335 The ecosystem that has evolved naturally over eons without any human advice or assistance. It is now striving to cope with human interference. It will prevail in the long run whatever we do. But it will be different.
336
I use ‘Mind’ to denote the collective view of society of what is happening. The
Consequence Axiom is partly the reason for the misunderstanding by the Mind about what is happening to the Body and Gaia.
337
The belief by the powerful in the virtue of continuing economic growth is denoted by
‘Tumor’ to ease driving home this fundamental point that continuing economic growth is the fatal premise of society. Its exuberance is driving the collapse in the developed and developing countries. The early modicum of economic growth to give a reasonable standard of living was real improvement but greed and lack of understanding have ensured that it is now leading to the collapse of civilization.
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Some moves towards global governance are discussed on p282 of ‘Gaia Atlas’. This link is to an organization that could well contribute a little to the slow growth of this
Revolution. ‘Support Viva! and help us spread the vegan word. Click here to join - http://www.viva.org.uk/supporter/membershipform.htm.
Another organisation that helps is the Vegan Organic Network: “Our commitment is to peace and justice for people, animals and the environment in a sustainable balance. To achieve this we must change our lifestyles and introduce a philosophy which will continue to maintain our planet.’ unique
339 http://alternet. org/environment/ 66451/?page= entire
’11 Solutions to Halting the Environmental Crisis’ By Yifat Susskind, AlterNet. Posted
October 31, 2007. ‘Here are 11 solutions already being put into practice by innovative communities around the world..’ This article details sound moves globally to address some of the predicaments facing society. It illustrates what can be done by people power.
But there is clearly a long way to go. Unfortunately, one of the steps is based on a
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common misunderstanding. <Climate change can be stopped, with existing technologies, if governments use their prerogative to regulate and tax corporations so that they limit resource use and generate funds for sustainable development. According to the UN
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we have the know-how to reduce global carbon emissions by 26 billion tons by 2030-- that's more than enough to avoid the 2degree Celsius rise in temperatures that would bring on the worst consequences of global warming.> Climate change cannot be stopped. It can only be slowed down by marked reduction in the rate of carbon emissions. It is already having a grave impact, more than the IPCC models predicted, and will get progressively worse. It is also unfortunate that the word ‘solution’ is used. The proposed measures only mitigate these predicaments to a degree.
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‘We need a global force of volunteers. You know the Peace Corps. How about an
Earth Corps?’ say Carol Bellamy and Eric Utne. For more information, go to
< http://ServeYourPlanet.org
>ServeYourPlanet
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with the Internet playing a major part whilst the equipment and power are still readily available.
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for many millions of bright, young, motivated people globally. It will stimulate them by providing purpose.
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There have been a number of earlier civilizations that had the same predicament, unsustainable use of natural resources, and they died off. On the other hand, there have been some indigenous ones that have lived harmoniously with nature for millennia but they have now been supplanted by modern, unsustainable civilizations. I note, with sorrow, that the Australian Aborigines are in this category.
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Attempts are being made to do just that. The UN sponsored conference on
Environment and Development held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 had that aim. The Science and Environmental Health Network in the U.S. is working to implement the precautionary principle as a basis for environmental and public health policy. The
Precautionary Principle in Australia At a Special Premiers' Conference held in Brisbane in 1990, the Commonwealth, States, Territories and representatives of Local
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Government, agreed to develop an Intergovernmental Agreement on the Environment
(IGAE). In the application of the precautionary principle, public and private decisions should be guided by:(i) careful evaluation to avoid, wherever practicable, serious or irreversible damage to the environment; and (ii) an assessment of the risk-weighted options of the various options. There are very few signs of these policies being put into effect.
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There are regions, particularly in the developed countries, where the consumption per head of population is really gross. On the other hand, there are the undeveloped countries where the population growth is unsustainable with the limited resources still available to them.
346
Plagues of locusts, rabbits, mice etc stem from an excess of food. Our civilization has become a plague due to an excess of cheap industrial energy. This has enabled the production of much food without doing anything about maintaining soil fertility or adequate water supply. Now energy supply is dwindling but we have the big population consuming too much and occupying too much land.
347
Heinberg describes a die off of rabbits on p18. The nature of the human die off is likely to vary appreciably with region. It will be coupled with affluence destruction and disintegration of some of the build of civilization. Many facilities in cities will become redundant.
348
‘All’ here embraces human society, all creatures great and small, the ecology, the environment and even the cities but most certainly not that intangible, the economy.
Economic growth invariably means accelerated growth in the rate of use of the declining natural resources. It means speeding up entropic growth. We cannot continue to produce goods and services without regard to the real eco cost which includes the natural resources used and abused.
349 Money binds most of us, to the disadvantage of many. It is the connection between working and consuming rather than living and doing.
350
By unveiling of hidden measures governing the operation of the ecosystem.
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354 Society feels free to use these facilities. ‘free’ here means unconstrained by any of the natural laws that govern operations of the ecosystem. The basis for that assertion is established below and formalized as the Freedom Axiom. I do not believe that there is anything really controversial about this proposition, even though there are some learned people who assert our thoughts are deterministic, so constrained.
355
They may last for decades if adequately maintained but they still have limited lives.
This fact is formalized here as the Life Axiom.
356
Even the Sydney Harbour Bridge will have to be demolished in due course.
357
the components of the eco cost are detailed below
358
most of the bounty is localized by regions and it encompasses much more than commercially useful natural resources
360
‘The Catastrophic Illusion Of Sustainability’ by Milo Clark in Swans Commentary » swans.com
, September 11, 2006 provides a cogent argument why a civilization based on using non-renewable resources is not possibly sustainable. He supports this argument with quite a few examples. He then comments on how unsustainable the Hawaiian way of life is. The Dependence on Nature Law is consistent with his systemic view but covers more issues.
361 I use the term ‘eco cost’ to represent the implied ecological cost of human activities as they invariably use and abuse natural resources. It is an un-repayable amount. It represents an irreversible draw down of the natural bounty capital available from Gaia. It is implied because society does not account for much of this cost, unfortunately. It is similar in principle to the Ecological Footprint (LPR_Tech_Notes_2006) but takes all the un-repayable costs into account. Using sunshine for any purpose, such as in a PV installation, does not evoke an eco cost. It is reliable natural bounty income, not capital.
But the installation does so as its construction and aspects of its operation contribute to the capital draw down.
362
The Laws of Thermodynamics and Newton’s Laws of Motion are well-known examples.
363
The natural bounty income and capital.
364
This is why they have been sustainable over eons.
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365 This applies to the relatively few globally that are well off. The vast majority are poor, partly because of this willful exuberance of the predatory minority.
366
This does not imply that the ecosystem is irreversibly damaged. It will continue to evolve. But civilization will not be able to continue to rape the ecosystem as it has been doing.
367
Plastic is one noteworthy synthetic product that the ecosystem cannot cope with.
There are, however, many thousands that we have introduced in a short period of time.
Rachel Carson describes this stupid contamination of our life support system in ‘Silent
Spring’.
368 http://www.sandersr esearch.com/ index.php? option=com_ content&task= view&id=1240
’Helium: a vanishing commodity’By Rui Namorado Rosa, Jun/01/2007
Very few people are a aware of the fact that a particular substance, displaying a number of unique properties such that has deserved a huge body of research since its discovery more than a century ago, and is now widely employed in a broad range of technical devices, is actually running short of supply. We refer to helium, the lightest noble natural gas. gas
Its fields. As main source hydrocarbons of are supply being is depleted, and, helium in particular content being tapped fields for helium, with higher show declining productivity. Peak helium is contemplated very seriously.’ This article explains that the declining supply of the exhaustible helium is likely to have a serious impact on many technological industries. It is, of course, only one of the ‘matter that matter’ (in the words of Georgescu-Roegen) that have been largely ignored until belated market signals are causing wider concern. I
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expect there are many technologists working feverishly to develop substitute equipment that is not dependent on helium.
369
They engage in nefarious activities at the expense of the masses.
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It is not a self-regulating process.
371
Propelled by people power as part of an Earthly Revolution. http://transitionculture.org/?page_id=22
Permaculture - principles and pathways beyond sustainability - David
Holmgren. (2003) Holmgren Design Press
At the end of his principle ‘Use Small and Slow Solutions’, David
Holmgren writes “when an adolescent sense of immortality and values of speed, novelty and endless growth define a whole civilisation, I think we are close to its demise and the birth of a new cultural paradigm. Watch it slowly unfold.’
373
Economic activity includes the production of goods and services not essential to the needs of the community. These used to be termed luxury items although I do not see that term used often today. Consider the hypothetical situation where these luxury items were no longer produced. The GDP would be appreciably lower and there would be fewer hours of work. The latter could be accommodated by having the same number of people working (same rate of employment) but for fewer hours. That is, there would be a substitution of loss of stuff for more time for such activities as valuable time with family, cultural activities, recreation or whatever one preferred. Or you could have the opposite with economic growth (higher GDP) due to the production of more luxury items and people working longer hours. This second alternative is the common paradigm primarily because the competitive business environment fosters conning the latest prroduct onto consumers who are suckers.
374
A recent statement by the Business Council of Australia illustrates the misconceptions that most business people have about what is realistically possible in addressing the climate change issue challenge. It says ‘A strong, innovative and dynamic economy is the key to funding the low-emissions technologies necessary
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to support what will continue to be an energy-intensive world, while simultaneously reducing the greenhouse gas emissions relative to economic activity’. This is a laughable, circular argument. It presumes, without any sound backing, that sufficient substitutes for the fossil fuels in providing energy can be practically implemented in a timely manner to maintain a (presumed) energyintensive world. It presumes, contrary to IPCC recommendations, that the climate change challenge will be met by reducing greenhouse gas emissions relative to economic activity (which it presumes will continue to grow). These business people do not, of course, recognize the contribution that technology has made to the dreadful situation that industrial civilization (and its support system) has now to face. The coming blame game will be fascinating as economists complain about the failure of technology while the technocrats point out the fallacious arguments of the money pushers.
375
There is widespread belief that nature is there for our benefit. A more realistic attitude, taken by the Cassandras, is that we should strive to live within the natural constraints of the ecosystem. Unfortunately modern civilization has gone too far down the wrong path for this to be possible. It has already overshot in many regions.
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Combining to accelerate entropic growth so making it harder to cope.
378
These myths are itemized later.
379
It is like having a credit card that is maxed out and meeting the monthly payment is becoming increasingly difficult with little income.
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We did not understand what we were doing. We were blinded by hype and led on by hope.
382
The Club of Rome calls it the World Problematique
383 ‘Is Sustainable Agriculture an Oxymoron?’ http://patternliteracy.com/sustag.html
by Toby Hemenway. Published in Permaculture Activist #60, May, 2006 Jared Diamond calls it “the worst mistake in the history of the human race.”(1) Bill Mollison says that it can “destroy whole landscapes.”(2) Are they describing nuclear energy? Suburbia? Coal
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mining? No. They are talking about agriculture. Soil fertility has been gravely eroded globally.
384
We let all that cheap energy go to our head. We went on a binge without any regard to our legacy, depletion.
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‘The Sustainable Communities Bill: Is this the most significant piece of legislation this decade? :29/03/2007 Author:Mark Anslow. Has your local pub closed down? Is your high street turning into a drab strip of chain stores? Has Tesco boarded up your postoffice and turned in into an 'express' store? If so, then you need to know about the
Sustainable Communities Bill. Mark Anslow asks if this is the most important piece of legislation since Labour came to power.’ This could well make a major contribution to people power, real democracy.
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This will require a remarkable change in attitude by the population at large but one that the young could enthusiastically embrace. It will require re-directtion of the education system!
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Although we tend to spoil it with pollution in many cities and by agriculture and deforestation.
391
A tonne of brown coal fired at Yallourn to produce electricity used in Melbourne involves an un-repayable eco cost because of draw down of natural capital and because of the wastes produced. It also uses a lot of drinkable water for cooling purposes. These eco costs are independent of the use made of the electricity and how much was paid for its use.
392
It should be borne in mind that electricity is essentially a form of industrial energy invented by humans. Chemical energy, on the other hand, is generally provided by natural processes (as in food and the fossil fuels). Mechanical energy occurs in nature
(winds, tides, ocean waves) and in machines (wind turbines, speeding cars).
393
The ocean are now absorbing more carbon dioxide that in pre-industrial times so its
Ph is dropping with a serious impact on the marine ecosystem.
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394 There is emerging evidence that oceans are absorbing less carbon dioxide than was expected for the elevated atmospheric temperature. This seems to be one of the RFM that could well accelerate global warming, so climate change. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=493
1 November 2007.‘Is the ocean carbon sink sinking?’ http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L25199004.htm
‘Scientists urge $2-3 billion study of ocean health’25 Nov 2007, By Alister Doyle,
Environment Correspondent. OSLO - Marine scientists called on Sunday for a $2-3 billion study of threats such as overfishing and climate change to the oceans, saying they were as little understood as the Moon.’ This article articulates how little science understands how this complex system adapts to the changing environment.
395 http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/world/view_article.php?article_id=99485
‘Global-warming gases set to rise by 57% by 2030—IEA’ Agence France-Presse.
11/07/2007. PARIS -- Emissions of greenhouse gases will rise by 57 percent by 2030 compared to current levels, leading to a rise in Earth's surface temperature of at least three degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit), the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday. In its annual report on global energy needs, the Paris-based agency projected greenhouse-gas pollution would rise by 1.8 percent annually by 2030 on the basis of projected energy use and current efforts to mitigate emissions.
396 http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/072307P.shtml
‘England Under Water: Scientists Confirm Global Warming Link to
Increased Rain’ By Michael McCarthy, The Independent UK, 23 July 2007
It's official: the heavier rainfall in Britain is being caused by climate change, a major new scientific study will reveal this week, as the country reels from summer downpours of unprecedented ferocity.
397 We use a lot of this electricity for air conditioning to counter the global warming partly caused by the generation of electricity. What a comical lose-lose situation! It is just one example of the reinforcing feedback mechanisms (RFM) industrialization has unknowingly installed.
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399 This is done without entailing any eco cost. Yet there are people who say the process is inefficient so should be greatly enhanced by installing a processing system – at great eco cost! The irony is that people do not like the idea of toilet to tap water – when it is done by employing technology. Of course, a sound means of doing this naturally has evolved and we take it for granted – until anthropogenically caused drought made us realize that it was unwise to take it for granted.
400
Unfortunately it is another of the wonders of nature that civilization has done its utmost to perturb by selling so many chemical products that pollute water. This has had such a horrifying impact on infant mortality in Africa that even the media recognize it.
But it is a global predicament with an impact on human health even in the developed countries.
402
Half of it has been used up in my lifetime.
403
Adding to the challenge of rising costs, countries such as Venezuela and Russia are grabbing more cash and control from companies that work their oil and gas fields, a trend dubbed resource nationalism by some analysts. In addition, oil and gas resources are increasingly in places where production is technically more difficult, such as offshore the
Gulf of Mexico. The oilfields of top reserves holder Saudi Arabia are off limits for foreign companies. "The international oil companies are facing a tough challenge," said
Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency, adviser to industrialised countries. "Their existing fields are declining and they do not have access to major oil reserves." http://www.engineer ingnews.co. za/article. php?a_id= 106673
404 Politicians and business people take heart from ‘The Polk study indicates worldwide car and van production this year would reach a record of more than 64 million.’ But they do not have to pay the price – yet. These natural resources do have limits despite the denial by so many believers in the (deviant) power of market forces.
405
Health problems from car exhausts. http://www.nutramed.com/environment/cars.htm
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provides details of this unappreciated predicament.
408
There are a number of methods to extract useful material or energy from wastes. It is similar in principle to ‘recycling’ of materials. It involves an eco cost but may be worthwhile. Unfortunately, these proposals are not generally assessed in that rational fashion.
409
How bad is it? Well, according to the report, "airlines in the U.S. throw away enough aluminum cans every year to build 58 new 747's." In 2004, the industry also jettisoned
9,000 tons of plastic and "enough newspapers and magazines to bury a football field more than 230 feet deep."
410
And that is quite a predicament with greenhouse gas emissions already making their impact felt. The pharmaceutical industry, however, is thriving as it throws medication at the consequential damage to human health.
414
How would we get by without fuel for cars, trucks, airliners and container ships? How would we get by without electricity?
415
We call this insolation.
416 For example, there are a number of Alaskan villages that had become dependent on cheap energy for improving their basic life style and they are now finding it very difficult to regress as it becomes too costly.
418 There are trivial exceptions in place and proposed but the generalization is still applicable. There are also some misleading ‘replacements’. Logging old growth forest and replacing it with plantation trees is often a retrograde step.
419 Like taking too much water flow from the Murray-Darling River system for irrigation purposes.
420
This remedial action means using up other natural resources
422
Although we might have red faces if we have to stand up and justify having so much.
423
We have not been good guests!
424
There is great pride in the many wonders of our civilization. But pride does come before a fall.
426
Stored in fossil fuels in a slow process over eons
427
Scientific American, SCIENCE NEWS, July 02, 2007
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Humans Gobble One Quarter of Food Chain's Foundation
In some areas of the world, up to 63 percent of all the energy produced by plants—energy that would normally fuel native ecosystems—has been pressed into service for humankind
By David Biello
"We found that, due to human activities, in particular past and present land use, 23.8 percent less [photosynthetic energy] remains currently in ecosystems than would be available without human activities," Haberl says. Technologies such as industrial fertilizers have helped to lower the human burden by increasing harvests while limiting land area, but this increasing agricultural output has been confined to certain regions of the globe, Haberl notes.
429
The problem is that he (the usual reformist) ignores the wise phrase of Einstein `You can't solve a problem with the same mind-set that got you into the problem in the first place'. The growth of civilization is an oxymoron because it entails speeding up the continuing decimation of the limited natural bounty.
430
It is critical that you bear in mind that all operations are, like time, irreversible.
431 ‘ The power of myth is extraordinary. Correctly applied, the ignorant will believe themselves enlightened and slaves will believe themselves free.’
432
For example, a U.S. Senator, after visiting Greenland to learn about the rapid glacier movement, said that stern measures should be rapidly adopted to ‘stop global warming’.
The public would expect that a prominent person would not say something that was impossible – but this Senator did.
434 Cerebral activities dealing with intangibles.
435 that all-pervading virus
436
this is a very difficult concept to grasp. We all see money as playing a central role in the operations of society. It has a big impact on decisions made about using natural resources. However, we must not lose sight of the fact that money has absolutely no
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influence on what actually happens in the geobiophysical operations initiated by these decisions. It is absolutely essential to bear that point in mind.
439 Natural disasters, like earthquakes, can entail an eco cost, so draw down of natural capital but their rarity means that they have little impact on the global depreciation of capital.
440 There is growing awareness that financial forces cause gross distortion of what is good for the ecosystem and for society even though they currently dominate operations.
441 This is the natural goods and services that civilization is able to use with the available and realistically prospective know how and technology.
442 This is about the level of the depreciation of the oil stock but there are many other elements that have also depreciated significantly, including fertile soil and potable ground water.
444 This is a natural process that is generally assisted by gardeners.
445 There is a commitment to use appreciable resources in the months ahead in the expectation of a profitable return from the harvest.
446 For example, the oil industry is becoming more circumspect while the car and aviation industries have yet to wake up to the fact that their
WA is low and likely to decline rapidly as oil scarcity hits all aspects of their operation.
448 That is a reality not factored into the financial system controlling the operation of society.
449 At a discounted eco cost
452 Sewers are the best example as valuable nutrients are discharged to water ways where they do harm rather than back to the land where they are beneficial.
453 European Parliament Adopts Strict Waste Reduction Law http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/feb2007/2007-02-13-01.asp
STRASBOURG, France, February 13, 2007 (ENS) – ‘The European Parliament today tackled Europe's growing waste mountain when it strengthened the new framework legislation on waste proposed by the European Commission, the EU's executive branch.
Despite existing legislation, Europeans are producing more waste every year. Currently, in some member states, up to 90 percent of municipal waste goes to landfill sites. Europewide, only 33 percent of waste is recycled or composted.’ This, at best, is only a trifling palliative move on one of the symptoms of the global malaise. However, it is a move.
The EU is trying to tackle part of the predicament.
454 Some, like the steel in sunken ships, represent a waste of natural resources after often serving a worthwhile purpose but they do no harm to the environment.
455 We have a natural thermostat in out bodies to control the amount of heat radiated.
457
‘environmentalists suffer from a bad case of group think, starting with shared assumptions about what we mean by "the environment" -- a category that reinforces the notions that a) the environment is a separate "thing" and b) human beings are separate from and superior to the "natural world."’ This comment does not resolve the issue. The
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operations of humans and their machines are subject to the same set of principles as all others in the ecosystem. That situation is summed up by the Dependence on Nature Law.
However, we have not been able to replicate nature by installing systems that are inherently cyclic or complementary. Our installed systems are all lifed. So replacement seems to be essential but will often not be possible as natural capital becomes scarce.
Civilization, particularly, will then be in a quandary.
458
what I call the Body of civilization.
459
arable land paved over!
460
Together with all other creatures, great and small and their life support system, the biosphere.
461
Gaia
462
Body of civilization
464 http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=37768 > http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=37768
Inter Press Service News Agency BIODIVERSITY: Scientists Foresee Extinction
Domino Effect by Stephen Leahy BROOKLIN, Canada, May 17 (IPS) - Climate change is accelerating species extinctions and unraveling the intricate web of life, experts fear.
Birds, animals, insects and even plants are on the move around the Earth, trying to flee new and increasingly inhospitable local weather conditions. For some, including alpine species and polar bears, there is nowhere to go. And many others, like plants, lack the mobility to stay ahead of changing climatic conditions.’ This article comments on the complex interaction between species and their environment that is still only partially understood by scientists. There are, however, very disturbing signs of how much climate change and other disruptions caused by civilization are disrupting biodiversity.
465 Conservation Biology, Volume 21 Issue 2 Page 289 - April 2007
To cite this article: David W Orr (2007) The Carbon Connection
Conservation Biology 21 (2), 289-292. email david.orr@oberlin. edu
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This article gives compelling insight into what open-cut coal mining in west Virginia is doing to the countryside so to the environment where people try to eke out a satisfying living. It gives you an appreciation of the devastation of the geodiversity for the sake of providing cheap electricity and providing profits for some.
466
Western industrialized countries.
468 Natural ecological succession could well slowly remedy some of the damage in due course but that hardly affects this argument.
469 Like growth of the economy or the population or of the rate of consumption or of the rate of depreciation of industrial capital.
470 For example, it is the wasteful use of water and the rate of pollution of water in the normal operations of civilization that is the problem.
472 It is a rate of production of goods and usage of services, regardless of how worthwhile they are. It is generally based on what occurred in a year.
475 For example, many airlines expect the price of oil to remain below
$90 per barrel over the coming year.
477
This rate is generally quoted in the technical literature in terms of tonnes per year.
Wikipedia entry for ‘Greenhouse gas’ calls it ‘carbon flux’ and gives graphs showing both carbon dioxide concentration level and carbon flux in recent times. ‘carbon flux’ is misleading because it is really referring to the flux of carbon dioxide.
478
This level is often quoted in the technical literature in terms of parts per million (ppm) or parts per million by volume (ppmv). It is grossly misleading when apparently authoritative people quote emissions in terms of ppm. The concentration level is currently about 393 ppm, which is over 100 ppm above pre-industrial levels.
479 And the latest data suggests the oceans are losing some of their ability to be sinks.
481 They are intangible decisions of the Mind.
482
Eco cost is like burning fuel in your car. They both destroy something in the ecosystem that took eons to evolve. It may be oil. It may be a regional ecological climax phase in which flora and fauna have achieved balance. It may be the climate that we are familiar with.
483 The dollar has depreciated in value rapidly over the years, particularly lately. Meanwhile, the worth of the remaining old growth forests has realistically continued.
484 An item cannot really be regarded as worthwhile if only a few can afford to have it.
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485 In meeting needs like sustenance, shelter and care. A common contemporary example of what is clearly not worthwhile is many wage slaves in Asian countries producing throw away stuff for the well off in Western countries.
486
This constructive input of human mental activities will be categorized here as the
Brain. It is in contrast to the destructive (of the ecosystem) mental activities characterized as the Tumor. For example, those activities of business that encourage wasteful consumption are included in the Tumor classification.
407 http://www.ft. com/cms/s/ 0/9dba9ba2- 5a3b-11dc- 9bcd-0000779fd2a c.html
‘Chinese military hacked into Pentagon’ By Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington,
September 3 2007. The Chinese military hacked into a Pentagon computer network in
June in the most successful cyber attack on the US defence department, say American officials. Gregory Garcia, the assistant secretary for cyber security at the department of
Homeland Security, says the number of cyber incidents reported to the department’s computer readiness team so far this year is 35,000. That compares to 4,100 for the whole of 2005. To contact the reporter email demetri.sevastopulo@ft.com. Copyright The
Financial Times Limited 2007’ This article discusses an emerging problem in relation to cyber security. It is bound to absorb intellectual energy in many countries in devising attacking procedures and countering them. These activities absorb little of the natural bounty but they do divert attention from the real materialistic predicaments of society.
488
This includes the efforts of the workers carrying out the maintenance.
489 The decision will be doubtless based on financial considerations that may not reflect the materialistic realities.
490
The worth of a skyscraper may be virtually unchanged during its life as its functional capability changes little. The worth of a coal-fired power station could, on the other hand, increase if the electricity supplied was put to more worthwhile use.
491
Many millions are unable to afford drinking water.
493 Irreversible ecological forces may well foster the reversal of the societal decline for many even though the decline of the extremists is likely to be accentuated.
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494 This would contribute to easing the necessary powering down.
The Earthly Revolution could well spring from an improvement in social values coupled with vastly improved means of communication.
495 But it will entail a major cultural change with many people facing up to the reality of using up the limited natural bounty capital.
497 With credit markets in disarray, news issued by today’s financial spinmeisters is increasingly based on deceptive figures and distorted markets. Today’s so-called free markets are not free at all. Today’s markets, especially in the US, are being manipulated in order to keep them afloat.
498 http://www.financia lsense.com/ fsu/editorials/ willie/2008/ 0116.html
The Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) movement from the emerging Asian and Middle
Eastern countries has begun to expand by buying into the faltering American economy in a powerful manner, and will not go away. This article provides appreciable detail and comment on the moves to lead the global economy. There is no mention, however, of the real dependency of the economy on the rapidly depreciating natural capital. These moves are therefore very risky.
499
Food, drink, shelter, sanitation, education, medical care and security.
500 Society is really a parasite that should endeavor to operate as sustainably as possible given the limited available natural bounty.
501 Those benefiting from the current situation in many communities do so in ignorance of the future consequences of the high rate of natural capital depreciation.
503
The main point made in this essay is that almost every person is a parasite as all people, like other animals, are entirely dependent on living off the ecosystem. Many ‘well off’ people exuberantly consume an inordinate amount during their lives. They leave a legacy of un-repayable eco debt.
‘By accounting for the basic necessities of food, clothing, housing, furniture, and transportation without spending a dime, freegans are able to greatly reduce or altogether eliminate the need to constantly be employed. We can instead devote our time to caring for our families, volunteering in our communities, and joining activist groups to fight the practices of the corporations who would otherwise be bossing us around at work.’ The freegans deliberately try not to be parasites in an overwhelmingly parasitic community.
506 many people operate on this principle with the work they do being the investment for the return of income. Their RoI is high because the industrial energy supporting their operations is unrealistically cheap.
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For this reason, very few people in the developed countries would consider growing their own food whilst they can get reasonable employment. They do not regard themselves as parasites – even though they really are.
507 The ecological forces have not yet hit the hip pocket of business.
Global warming is only now managing to enter into its view. The rising price of oil is aiding the producing countries in depreciating natural capital but its growing scarcity is yet to have much impact on affluent society although helping to starve many of the poor.
509 it seems that most ‘net energy’ analysis attempts to account for all of the factors involves in supplying the energy, it is misleading to use the term for two reasons. Operations involve the energy invariably are associated with materials. This is why I use the term ‘eco cost’ to unambiguously embrace all the factors involved. Secondly, the operations of the ecosystem, natural and synthetic, are not solely determined by the supply of energy.
510 It is based on the supposed natural principle that organisms tend to get the maximum amount of work from energy expenditure. This is viewed as a natural survival mechanism. It is also deemed to apply in industrial society. It is, however, based on a false premise, so is unknowingly fostering societal suicide and ecocide. Whilst natural systems may tend to optimize on energy use, there is no justification for supposing this is how industrialized society works. There, market forces govern the decisions, often without consideration of the real worth of the work done.
511 It is, for example, often applied to the production of ethanol. It does not take into account how this robs the soil of nutrients! And it also presumes using ethanol to power SUVs is worthwhile.
512
Some of this confusion stems from what is meant by ‘energy’. I am explicit about what is being referred to so as to avoid that confusion.
513
It has clear meaning in the commercial sense as it relates the embedded energy (EI) that needs to be expended in supplying energy to the user (ER). The origin of the energy used (in the fossil fuel) is regarded as being free. This, of course, is one of the biggest mistakes society has made. The large population is now having to live with the dire circumstances of being addicted to this cheap energy as it runs out, after having polluted land, sea and air .
514
‘Peak Oil: The End of Economic Growth?’ by Professor Charles A. Hall of the State
University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse. Dr.
Hall is a systems ecologist who began his career studying life in freshwater systems. He is best known for developing the concept of EROI, or energy return on investment, which examines how organisms, including humans, invest energy in obtaining additional energy
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to improve their biotic or social fitness. He has applied this approach to fish migrations, the carbon balance, tropical land use change and petroleum extraction, in both natural and human-dominated ecosystems. His lecture will deal with the probable implications of peak oil on the economic activity of OECD and developing countries. It will focus on the past, present and future energy cost of energy itself, and how that is likely to effect investments, economic growth and discretionary spending.’ Hall gives a clear statement of the development of ERoEI (EROI is his terminology) for the fossil fuels and alternatives. He notes its relevance to practical economics and that it does not take into account ecological factors.
515
Posted By Valerie MacDonald. ‘An engineer and writer is contacting local chambers of commerce and area politicians about an idea to generate hydro-electric power using the height differential between Rice Lake and Lake Ontario. Harry Valentine, of
Cornwall, Ont., is promoting construction of a "pipeline or tunnel" between the two lakes. Lake Ontario is 368 feet below the surface of Rice Lake, he stated, and this is the key to his "pumped storage hydraulics" solution to Ontario's need for more power.
Essentially, water from Lake Ontario would be pumped up to Rice Lake during the night when the need and cost of power is lowest. It would make Rice Lake rise by a foot. When power is needed by 6 a.m. the next day and the demand raises the cost of power, the water would flow downhill through the same pumps, which now become turbines generating electricity to be added to the power grid. Rice Lake would return to its previous level during the process, Mr. Valentine said.’ This proposal has some obvious technical and economic merit as it provides a sound method for adjusting to variability in electricity demand. The proposal, however, is based on the premise that there will be a worthwhile increase in electricity that justifies the eco cost entailed. The WoEC could well be lower than for alternatives, like encouraging residents to turn down their thermostats by charging more for electricity at peak demand times..
516 This is not to suggest that it is easy to quantify. The embodied principle is, however, crucial. There are, invariably, a number of eco cost elements in any synthetic activity.
517 Carmania and flymania are popular with the well off and the ambitious but they are not worthwhile in the sense of society living with its life support system.
518 Mining has eliminated many forests and arable land at the expense of indigenous creatures.
519 Like dumping mountain tops into rivers to open up mines
520 the societal impact should ideally also be taken into account. The disruption of the lives of indigenous populations in order to provide biofuels or oil to power cars is hardly worthwhile in any rational sense – but it occurs.
524 It is common to term bankers as parasites because they feed off producers and savers by providing credit and charging interest. The term here refers to those systems of civilization that operate by
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irreversibly drawing down on natural capital. There is a profound difference in that the banking parasites are operating with an intangible, money, whereas civilization is feeding off the tangible ecosystem.
526 The associated fuels are cheaper in the U.S. (in buying power terms) than almost every other country. The irony is that this has fueled the American addiction to carmania and flymania while the oil price rise medicine is having little effect, as yet. It means the coming collapse will be harder for most of its people to comprehend.
527 The U.S. was so wasteful of its large oil endowment that it has had to import oil for over three decades. But that has not stopped it from continuing its unnecessary rampage.
528
There are now proposals to pay for the carbon dioxide produced because of its contribution to climate change and concern is growing about how to handle the health problems generated by pollution.
529 http://www.canada. com/vancouversun /features/ going_green/ story.html? id=6c880c59- 4068-49d2- 80e4-e0fdb36c6fa 9&k=71777
The world of geology is about to be rocked by a controversial bid to reclassify the present era in planetary history as one in which human activities -- not natural processes -- are the definitive force shaping the top layer of Earth. But now, a distinguished group of British geologists has provocatively proposed that the Holocene is over and that we have entered a new geological era -- the Anthropocene -- in which humans have left such a distinctive footprint on the Earth's surface through carbon pollution, nuclear fallout, urbanization and other traces of our immense technological power that it should be officially recognized by international scientific bodies as "a formal epoch."
530
“The loss of global biological diversity is advancing at an unprecedented pace,”
Sigmar Gabriel, Germany’s environment minister, recently told the BBC. “Up to 150 species are becoming extinct every day. ... The web of life that sustains our global society is getting weaker and weaker.” That is one element of the decimation of natural bounty capital that is not accounted by economists!
531
Particularly in recent years with the very rapid increase in financial ‘liquidity’, especially in the developed countries. This gives a false sense of value, particularly of stocks and shares. But people are using this liquidity to buy stuff for now. This is setting up an explosive situation.
532
Plastic barely existed prior to 1945, but it may now be the most ubiquitous man-made substance on Earth. "EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AMOUNT that's been incinerated," says
Tony Andrady the oracle, "every bit of plastic manufactured in the world for the last fifty
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years or so still remains. It's somewhere in the environment." ‘Polymers Are Forever.
Alarming tales of a most prevalent and problematic substance’ by Alan Weisman.
Published in the May/June 2007 issue of Orion magazine. This article gives appreciable detail on the continuing existence of vast amounts of plastic that could be causing grievous harm.
533 There has been appreciable argument about how come there were all these natural resources available for humans to build up their civilization using systems they invented.
The fact of relevance here is that they were there and so society has used and abused them without understanding the consequences.
534
The current trend in the U.S. for the real wages of most workers to be decreasing stems from outsourcing and investment in low labor cost production overseas. It is simply a manifestation of the normal operation of business endeavoring to minimize cost in the competitive environment, so ensuring profitability. It appears to be contributing to the decline in the material standard of living to be expected with the declining natural bounty.
535
This is really gross wealth, not net wealth. This distinction is elaborated on below.
536
Because the dogma accentuates the temporary positives and largely ignores the permanent negatives.
537
There is now a tendency towards disorder in the operation of the country after peak order some decades ago. There is an appreciable amount of infrastructure in urgent need of repair or replacement.
539 Insolation together with air, water and plant supplies.
540
Which has grown extremely rapidly in recent decades. It is giving many in society great power to destructively draw down on natural bounty capital, so hastening the arrival of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
541
Land in its natural state contributes to biodiversity. When used for agriculture it may be more useful because the food produced out weighs the impact on the biodiversity.
However, when it is acquired for urbanization, its real worth can be greatly reduced. The paving of land for roads, parking lots and runways are just some examples of degradation of the wealth attributed to land. They temporarily serve a purpose that is not necessarily
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worthwhile while entailing a continuing eco cost for maintenance - whilst there are sufficient natural resources remaining to meet this demand as well as for continuing operations..
542 The currently bursting housing bubble in many developed countries is a harsh means of bringing a lot of people back down to earth.
543
A house evokes an eco cost to build, operate and maintain. It serves a useful purpose in providing shelter and services for some people. Small houses can be more worthwhile in that regard. That is, their WoEC can be appreciably higher than for a McMansion. This
WoEC could well be about 10 when the houses are new but the subsequent ratio could depend appreciably on extraneous circumstances.
544
It is a concept that is not easy to quantify but it does illustrate a principle that is not widely recognized.
545
Called the Brain here
546
which has come at an appreciable eco cost
547
this intangible asset has entailed the eco cost of the operations of the people who have produced it. It continues to be worthwhile so long a there is sufficient natural bounty to support the fundamental material operations.
548 All industrial systems are subject to wear and tear, so are life limited like all plants and animals.
549 The buildings, infrastructure and services of Melbourne contribute to the gross real substantive wealth of Australia. This is the common perspective. However, that has been achieved at tremendous eco cost so the net real wealth is appreciably less.
550
‘Atlanta's role in drought is scrutinized’ By Jenny Jarvie, Los Angeles Times http://tinyurl. com/2qglg8
ATLANTA - When Rick McKee, editorial cartoonist of the Augusta Chronicle newspaper, set out to capture the historic and severe drought that is afflicting the
Southeast, he did not draw parched rivers or shriveled crops or brown lawns. He drew an oafish, bloated hulk of a boy holding up a straw to slurp up water from a smaller boy's water fountain. Above the two boys were two signs: The first said "Atlanta." The second said "Everybody else."’ This competition for water is illustrative of the problems that will increasingly emerge with entropic growth.
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551 The development of cultural wealth is not inherently limited by natural forces but is dependent on a healthy material foundation, which is constrained by natural forces.
553 Many animals also have a sense of territory that they protect. This is similar to humans having private property rights. Generally the law protects this right, which includes making use of the natural resources available on the land. It also applies in principle to countries. In each case, the land and its resources is an element in the real wealth of the possessor.
554
As tangible stored stock like nuts hidden in a tree.
555
it simplifies this discussion to think in terms of a community without consideration of the differing impact of master and servant.
556 Fossil fuels have provided the energy to build up the Body of civilization and the greenhouse gases that have precipitated climate change.
557
clearing land was a slight draw down on capital because of its impact on biodiversity.
The actual crop raising was also a draw in principle because of its disruption of the natural soil fertility process.
558
using wood and other material to build houses and to facilitate the development of their culture.
559 Time and energy are very closely coupled in most operations even though energy alone is often referred to in misleading discussions.
People do regard time as a valuable resource, even when they are not using it wisely!
560
this was really progress in society in drawing down on natural bounty capital. In essence, it was progress in robbing the ecosystem. It was inherently an unsustainable process but could be carried out for a long time without noticeable impact if only done moderately, as at that time.
561 To more rapidly depreciate natural capital as well as more worthwhile measures!
562 The cities, the infrastructure and all the other material constructs that enable modern society to operate exuberantly – without concern for the consequences.
563 The irrevocable waste heat has been augmented by many waste materials polluting land, sea and air. There wastes and to the eco cost, so depreciation of natural capital, without actually contributing to the industrial capital.
564 Environmentalists have been decrying aspects of this robbery for decades but they have not been heard above the rustling of dollar notes!
565 Largely the fossil fuels, particularly oil, together with nuclear and hydro and, increasingly, ‘renewables’.
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566 With industrial capital in the cities being a major component.
567 Many social services, like education, health, legal, policing and recreational are taken for granted in developed communities – for now.
568 Of disrupted geodiversity as well as the infrastructure of civilization. Many hydro schemes have so disrupted natural river flows that maintenance action has become necessary.
569 Of many aged sewerage systems, for example.
570 For example, cities have created the heat island effect that evokes an eco cost.
571 To try to reduce species extinctions
572 Behind the back of the informed!
574 Accumulated over ages
575 The equipment would also have a reasonably high WA in most circumstances. The skyscraper could not have been built without the use of cranes and a supply of electricity is essential.
577 This is aside from any appreciation in value due to market forces.
579
The insolation out roughly balances the insolation in. The difference is almost certainly causing global warming and the effect on climate is becoming noticeable..
580
The development of the arts has contributed much to human well being at very little eco cost.
581
The Mind of civilization has grown is the other way of expressing this development.
582
Science, technology, skills, entrepreneurship, innovation and corporations have all had a major impact on the transformation of natural material wealth to a synthetic form, often of doubtful worth. This gross substantive wealth has grown very rapidly but inefficiently.
583 It has enabled the construction of such useful facilities as the
Sydney Harbour Bridge.
584
Comfortable housing with energy, water and sanitation services.
585
For example, it has created unsustainable carmania and flymania.
586 As represented by WA.
587 Avtur as a fuel for airliners is deemed more useful than crude oil in the ground
588 This is a commitment covered only to a degree by expectation.
589
From the natural wealth before agriculture started the decline. Industrialization speeded the decline up profoundly but it has now got out of hand largely because of the impact of monetization.
590
That does not worry the powerful!
591
The scarcity of fossil fuels, fertile soil and aquifer water are already having a big impact on what is available for transformation.
592 A skyscraper can no longer provide a useful function for society when it has collapsed due to wear and tear and lack of maintenance.
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593 The transformation of market gardens into the site for suburban development of
McMansions is a typical example of material wealth destruction.
594
For example, it has facilitated flymania, the temporary improved ability for people to roam, at appreciable permanent expense of degradation of the ecosystem.
596
It is intriguing that there is no realistic indicator of this wealth, and its eco cost, although many proclaim biased aspects of the advances that have been made.
597
Which has grown rapidly in recent decades but it has exploded this century and that means the consumption of natural bounty by the rich and well off has got out of control.
598
It facilitates wasteful consumption of natural resources and needless damage to the ecosystem largely to bolster self-image, blissfully unaware of the fact that they are contributing to the demise of civilization.
599
With the end of the financial year in Australia, commentators are lauding the increase in (paper) wealth of the well off in the past year as though that is good for the country.
The reality, of course, is that it is contributing to decline of the natural bounty, which happens to be a large part of the real wealth of the country, although the Treasurer does not realize that!
600 International tourism is thriving due to this paper wealth. It is increasing the rapidity of the draw down of the natural bounty to boost egos.
601 For example, the increasing dollar value of a house even as it ages. The explosive growth of cost of urban homes in the past decade is an unsustainable phenomenon that is bound to crash. It does not have firm foundations.
602 In the case of inherited wealth, past success in generating financial wealth by entailing an excessive eco cost has enabled this excess to grow. It is another example of an RFM that can only continue whilst sufficient natural bounty is available by these foul means.
603
The irony is that they will leave a dollar legacy together with the reality that they have unknowingly eroded the capability of the ecosystem to meet the future needs of their descendants.
604
In fact the masses look up to the wealthy for their success in ravaging their energy and that of the ecosystem!
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605 The current sub-prime credit crunch in the U.S. could well be the trigger for this global crash.
606
Jim Kunstler has, as usual, a very perceptive essay at ‘Peak money’ in Clusterfuck
Nation. http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/2007/11/peak-money.html
He explains how finances have developed from providing a measure of the productivity of society to having to having a life of its own that is manipulated by insiders for their own gratification. It is now an intangible growth that has no connect with reality. And the signs are emerging that it will crash in the near future and the masses will pay in the
Greater Depression.
607 Financial markets are now so complex and opaque that even the experts are confused.
608
It is, unfortunately, another RFM. As the market crashes the prudent operators will accept a small loss and get out and that means the late movers will suffer a greater loss.
This also applies to the current fall of the USD but the players, Japan, China, Britain and the Gulf countries are much bigger investors!
610 The powers of financial capitalism had (a) far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences.
The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International
Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world.’ The irony is that these seemingly knowledgeable financiers do not understand that they are fostering the irreversible depreciation of natural bounty capital. They would get the chop if they allowed that to happen to the capital of their corporations!
611
Real wealth probably peaked in the U.S. about this time as the economy turned from production of goods towards a service industry. This did not slow the American consumption of stuff, imported from China. It is likely that the peak of cultural wealth followed closely after the peak of material wealth. Societal values have clearly plummeted!
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612 the distortion index is very high
614
Facilities in the Body
615
know how in the Mind
616 http://www.guardian .co.uk/science/ 2008/jan/ 21/environmental .debt1
Rich countries owe poor a huge environmental debt. The environmental damage caused to developing nations by the world's richest countries amounts to more than the entire third world debt of $1.8 trillion, according to the first systematic global analysis of the ecological damage imposed by rich countries. Using data from the World Bank and the UN's Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, the researchers examined socalled "environmental externalities" or costs that are not included in the prices paid for goods but which cover ecological damage linked to their consumption. They focused on six areas: greenhouse gas emissions, ozone layer depletion, agriculture, deforestation, over fishing and converting mangrove swamps into shrimp farms.’ This article highlights the vast difference in the rate of draw down of this element of natural capital between the developed and undeveloped countries. It talks in terms of the financial debt that the developed countries owe to the prey. There will be no way this debt can be even partially repaid using some of the remaining natural capital, even if the political will could be found.
617
the U.S. is the classic example of the extreme while the Scandinavian countries are examples of moderation.
620 Many people argue that genetically modified (GM) crops are an improvement. This is view is arguable as the gains in what is marketable could well be offset by the biodiversity losses.
622
The common term ‘information explosion’ conveys a misleading impression of advancement. Much of this growth is of little benefit to actual material operations while often adding to confusion. It has, however, clearly added to mental developments.
624
Whether the Nile is in flood has been important to the Nile Delta farmers for millennia. The Aswan Dam now controls the flooding but prevents nutrients renewing the
Delta soil, with a calamitous effect on Egypt’s breadbasket. Climate change is predicted to worsen this situation
626 natural and synthetic
627
Nature has provided mountains whilst humans have built skyscrapers
628 nature provides trees and people sustainably while humans produce stuff that gets thrown away
629 nature provides running water in streams while doctors provide advice on obesity and cigarette smoking and teachers tell youngsters how well civilization has raped Planet
Earth.
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630 Invariably even though you might think otherwise up to now. When you use energy it is courtesy of insolation through food.
631
The trilling of a songbird can be as entertaining as a contralto
632
The money paid to CEOs and sporting and entertainment personalities illustrates the irrational view of society about what is worthwhile. These views are of little use to the hungry and thirsty.
633
We are interested only in what has actually happened to the Body of civilization and to its host, Gaia.
635
Think about this as it is a fundamental principle that never enters in the thoughts of most people. They are so conditioned about how clever people are that they believe almost everything is made in factories – of what does not enter their heads.
636
The impact of carbon dioxide emissions on the climate is just one, albeit devastating, example.
637
Including what goes on inside our bodies. There is good reason to believe many chemical products have unintended harmful effects. Some also affect other species. They have no say in the toxic chemicals we discard into their environment! But their behavior can show their inability to cope.
638 ‘geodiversity’ is used here to denote the range of non-biological natural goods and services available in the ecosystem. This definition is more general than the one in common use, as defined in Wikipedia. This broadening of the definition to include rivers etc is necessary because these natural services have had such an important influence on the development of civilization – and we have disrupted, or implemented measures that have disrupted, many of them.
639
Heinberg discusses the role of specialization in humans dominating and disrupting the ecosystem. Many of these occupations in our techo-economic system make no contribution to the operation of the Body of civilization.
640
People flock to the cities to get well-paid jobs to do work often not essential to the well being of the members of the community. Often they produce or market stuff. This has got so out of hand that we have numerous mega cities with horrendous slums. The irony is that the fossil fuels provides society with so much industrial energy that the
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personal energy of many is not fully employed whilst much of the energy of others is employed in activities that are not worthwhile.
641
‘parasite’ is used here to describe any individual, community, country or society that is irreversibly using up natural resources without making a compensatory contribution to the operation of the ecosystem. There are very few human communities nowadays that are not parasitic.
642
This may seem a dubious assertion because it is not a common view. Yet the main element in that cost, the depletion of exhaustible natural resources, like oil, is unequivocal. This assertion is further justified below. It is the foundation of the
Dependence on Nature Law.
643
We have not identified all the bounty and we have certainly not quantified it but that does not excuse our failure to recognize that the operation of civilization is critically dependent on using up that bounty. The critical elements in the bounty vary with the regions although there is invariably some degree of interdependence. The shortage of potable water in Saudi Arabia can realistically be eased by desalination because it has plenty of oil to provide the necessary industrial energy for the near future. On the other hand, the U.S. is desperately trying to garner fuel to sate its addiction to the car.
644 Draw down of natural capital, devastation of the environment by the consequential wastes and disruption of geo- and biodiversity.
645 http://www.alternet .org/story/ 76819/
Maude Barlow: The Growing Battle for the Right to Water
By Tara Lohan, AlterNet, February 16, 2008. From Chile to the Philippines to South
Africa to her home country of Canada, Maude Barlow is one of a few people who truly understands the scope of the world's water woes. Her newest book, Blue Covenant: The
Global Water Crisis and the Coming Battle for the Right to Water, details her discoveries around the globe about our diminishing water resources, the increasing privatization trend and the grassroots groups that are fighting back against corporate theft, government mismanagement and a changing climate.
646 http://www.asiawateronline.com/news_show.php?language=english&n_id=1657
Global water crisis looms. More than one-sixth of the world's population lacks access to safe drinking water, and more than twice that number, 2.5 billion, have inadequate water for sanitation. A third of humanity lives in regions suffering from water shortages. In
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many developing countries, women walk miles every day to fetch water for their families. Earth Policy Institute, Eco-Economy Update, March 7, 2007 ‘WATER PRICES
RISING WORLDWIDE’ by Edwin H. Clark, II www.earthpolicy.org/Updates/2007/Update64.htm
The price of water is increasing-—sometimes dramatically—-throughout the world. Over the past five years, municipal water rates have increased by an average of 27 percent in the United States, 32 percent in the United Kingdom, 45 percent in Australia, 50 percent in South Africa, and 58 percent in Canada. In Tunisia, the price of irrigation water increased fourfold over a decade. This article describes the rapidly developing problem and some realistic means of handling it so that even the poorest get sufficient to meet basic needs.
647 http://www.latimes.com/business/la-ft-water16apr16,1,2158034.story?coll=laheadlines-business
FINANCIAL TIMES. ‘Water crisis looms worldwide. Parched nations are offering billions of dollars in contracts to boost supplies. The U.N. says 40% of the population will suffer shortages by 2050.’ By Leslie Crawford, Financial Times, April 16, 2007.
This is a typical example of the increasing problems civilization will have as global entropy continues to grow. Nature controls most of the supply of water. De-salination, using energy, which is in short supply, can add a little to the supply. Synthetic installations distribute the supplied water at an appreciable eco cost, often using a lot of industrial energy. The top priority, as ever, will be that the businesses make a profit.
648
This natural capital consists of exhaustible resources like the fossil fuels and numerous ores. ‘Earth's natural wealth: an audit’ Premium, 23 May 2007, David Cohen,
Magazine issue 2605 ‘It's not just the world's platinum that is being used up at an alarming rate. The same goes for many other rare metals such as indium, which is being consumed in unprecedented quantities for making LCDs for flat-screen TVs, and the tantalum needed to make compact electronic devices like cellphones. How long will global reserves of uranium last in a new
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nuclear age? Even reserves of such commonplace elements as zinc, copper, nickel and the phosphorus used in fertilizer will run out in the not-too-distant future. They can only be used once. It also includes those natural resources that are used faster than their replenishment rate, like fertile soils, many aquifers and forests.
649
This natural income is continually available. It includes insolation as a source of energy, precipitation as the source of water and carbon dioxide as a contributor to food supply.
650
The installation of irrigation systems illustrates where an appreciable eco cost is entailed for using water income, precipitation.
651
These include material wants (stuff) which tend to be wasteful and societal wants that tend to contribute to the sense of community.
652
Although such a costing mechanism does not exist in our society! We have presumed the exhaustible natural resources were free! Heinberg advocates as Axiom 4 that the rate of depletion of these resources should be less than the rate at which they are declining so there is no question of running out, so is sustainable. He has in mind society powering down to mitigate the decline but this will require a profound cultural change. Hopefully that will be manifest in a Earthly Revolution.
654 It is able to repay its eco costs because it has not used any irreplaceable resources.
655 This, of course, is a lesson homo sapiens have yet to learn. I expect you will learn that lesson here.
656
It is laughable that there is serious discussion in legal circles about humans protecting the rights of nature. They clearly do not appreciate that natural forces are really in control and that humans protecting the rights of nature is only an anthropogenic regulation measure that will benefit future society.
657 Ophuls, William, ‘The Rousseauean Moment’ The Good Society - Volume 11,
Number 3, 2002, pp. 91-94, Penn State University Press. ‘The great delusion of our time is this: that the complex and interrelated problems of modern urban civilization have technical solutions. But those seeking merely practical cures to our collective ills are doomed to frustration, because the real remedy is political, not technological. The root problem of the city--and therefore of urban civilization itself--is that it is an ecological
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parasite: it arrogates to itself resources that do not naturally belong to it by sucking matter, energy, and population away from its hinterland. Metropolitan Los Angeles, for instance, would perish in a matter of weeks if the many aqueducts that bring water from a thousand miles away no longer functioned. By its very nature, parasitism is exploitative-a one-way, one-sided process that tends to leave the host debilitated, if not dead. Yet it is precisely this exploitation of the rural and natural periphery that permits those who inhabit the urban core to live high on the ecological hog. This has been true since ancient times--indeed, since the origin of civilization, when humanity exchanged an existence based on usufruct for one founded on cultivation. For agriculture as a mode of production eventually entailed cities and empires that could only live by exploiting their hinterlands.
Thus Rome, to choose but one example, ruthlessly mined captured provinces for their human and natural wealth, leaving behind barren wastelands where crops once grew or lions once roamed. In effect, a naked ecological imperialism was the indispensable basis of Roman wealth and power. However, the ecological sins of the ancient world pale beside our own.... ‘
658
But better quality of life
659
But a higher one may be justified if the greedy communities cut back.
661
Generally they export more natural resources or goods produced by using their natural resources than they import. They import more wastes than they export. This difference can be offset by emigration. Their parasiticity is accentuated by being preyed on.
662
The terms ‘predator’ and ‘prey’ have slightly different meanings here compared to the conventional. A predator community gains from a prey community through biased trades of natural resources and wastes, offset by immigration. This trade reduces the eco cost of the activities in the predator community but increases them in the prey one. The predator thereby reduces its parasiticity, at the expense of the prey.
664 They have the leverage (money and know how) that gives them the capability to feed.
665 Western countries have done this for centuries. This tendency also exists in most countries with the powerful preying on the proletariat. It can only be justified where it leads to real improvements in WoEC and that is becoming increasingly rare. The
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emerging Chinese middle class is a predatory community able to embrace carmania as the majority of Chinese suffer from the devastation of their environment.
666
Despite the development of more sophisticated tools to enhance this trend. The irrevocable decline in the natural bounty is a reality that cannot continue to be discounted.
667
The growing competition between the developed, oil importing, countries for the remaining oil is the outstanding example of this trend.
668
You may care to speculate on which countries are predators and which are preyed on.
Some are considered later on.
669
‘The author George Orwell in *Nineteen Eighty-Four *has his main character describe how he is battling to uphold belief in his own knowledge against the bombardment of rewritten history. In the society where he lives the "heresy of heresies is common sense".
After working through his doubts he asserts that "The solid world exists, its laws do not change. Stones are hard, water is wet, and *objects unsupported fall*...". Orwell could hardly have expected these words to be so specifically relevant today. One wonders whether those who refuse to consider evidence for the demolition theory are not already under the spell of Big Brother and re-written history.’ This quote is from an article on
9/11 but is relevant here. We have a society that is conditioned by Big Brother to believe that money controls the operation of the ecosystem. You are encouraged here to look at the reality ‘The solid world exists, its laws do not change” and not be blinded by hype about intangibles.
670 ‘Mystery: How Wealth Creates Poverty in the World’ By Michael Parenti http://www.commondreams.org/views07/0216-30.htm
There is a “mystery” we must explain: How is it that as corporate investments and foreign aid and international loans to poor countries have increased dramatically throughout the world over the last half century, so has poverty? The number of people living in poverty is growing at a faster rate than the world’s population. What do we make of this?’ This article explains the successful predatory activities of the corporations.
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Successful, that is, in destroying the subsistence life style in undeveloped countries for the sake of monetary wealth for a few in the developed countries.
671
Which tends to improve motivation, productivity and economic efficiency regardless of the real worth of what is being produced, so long as the consumer can be induced to buy it! It really is a good if it drives down prices of the needs of society but not if it encourages the purchase of stuff. Unfortunately, the latter is more prevalent.
672
Which generally improves the ability to buy stuff!
673
I capitalize ‘Big Business’ here because of its similarity to Big Brother’s predatory activities in George Orwell’s ‘Nineteen Eighty-Four’.
674
Published on Friday, March 9, 2007 by CommonDreams.org
‘You Can't Eat Gasoline. Big Food's Lie About Feeding the World’ by Bob St. Peter
This article details how industrial farming has grossly mislead society about the benefits of the fossil fuel powered Green Revolution while playing down the problems it has created. These include pushing countless small, efficient farmers off the land and breaking up their communities, creating problems of dealing with animal wastes and reducing soil fertility. The Green Revolution has tripled world-wide grain production but the vast majority of that increase is going to feed cows, pigs, and chickens in horribly cruel Confined Animal Feeding Operations (CAFO's), This has resulted in a dietary change that has contributed to the obesity epidemic in the rich countries.
675 Just about everyone, including the so-called informed, who has sufficient money.
677 Remember this is in the sense of feeding on natural resources so evoking an eco cost that will depend very much on their life style. Many in the so-called poor countries entail very little eco cost though in many cases it would be desirable if they could get more so they had a reasonable standard of living. On the other hand, there are many people in the rich countries who are spoilt by having and doing too much. They are the real parasites.
678
When that intellectual energy is used in doing a job it is tantamount to using part of an accumulated eco cost.
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679 An airline pilot is a classic example of the application of attained intellectual energy to doing something deemed by society to be of value – for now. The pilot is unknowingly contributing to the natural bounty draw down for very dubious gains. The realization that airlines are an unsustainable industry is only now beginning to surface. This slow realization is because the eco cost has not been accounted. Only one side of the coin has been examined. Civilization cannot afford much airline travel because it draws down too much on the natural bounty. It uses a specialized fuel obtained from depleting oil and contributes to climate change.
680
Like a farmer using skill and knowledge to improve natural food production, without undue dependence on using fossil fuels. Educators who facilitate the build up of worthwhile know how also fall into this category.
681
There will be many who will take exception to using this term for humans. The common view (amongst humans) is that they are a special kind of animal without parasitic attributes. The reality, as we will see as we go along, is that Homo sapiens are really the most adroit parasites but they have gone too far.
682 Many people believe that they have earned a prosperous retirement after working for so long. They do not appreciate that what has been attained has been largely due to the draw down of the natural bounty at the expense of future generations. I am sure most people will be appalled when they realize what their legacy will really be.
683
Most people fall into this category, particularly in cities. It does not mean that they do not make contributions to the functioning and the standard of living of society. It just means that they do not make a positive contribution to the continuing basic operations of the Body of civilization or Gaia. In fact, many of these parasites make a significant contribution to the emissions accelerating climate change without justification.
International tourism is a growing selfish way of denying future generations.
684
These are people who through their knowledge, expertise or skill add value to the use of natural resources in the construction and operation of societal facilities or in production of goods that are worthwhile. Farmers who use good practices fall into that category. Doctors, police and teachers contribute to essential social services so indirectly
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contribute to the operation of the Body. They can accumulate real wealth if they are frugal in their consumption.
685
Whales, kangaroos, lions, trees etc are essentially neutral. They get their energy from insolation, water from natural pondage and food from the ecosystem. They eventually return all matter (nutrients, water, carbon etc) to the ecosystem for another round. There are still indigenous people who fall roughly into this category because that is their culture. There are also millions of poor people who fall into this category, but not of their own volition.
686
Although the system judges them to have acquired wealth!
687
This is an example of a high distortion index.
689
We are really like all other animal species in that we eat, drink, breathe, reproduce and die.
690
We are aware of the nature of plagues of rabbits, locusts and the like. They exhaust available resources so die off. Yet we have ignored that lesson, so humans are now a plague.
691 little is ever said about our responsibility to limit what natural resources we use and how many youngsters we produce who will continue the ravaging.
692 It is ironical that increased (synthetic) food production and advances in hygiene and medication has enabled this temporary plague of people.
693
Include those symbols, the McMansions, the yachts and the private jets in the doomed species list.
694 Include cars, airliners, container ships and even cities in the waste list!
695
It is discussed in detail later but generally covers the area needed to provide the essentials for the population. Its simplistic notion is that the greater the acreage available per capita the higher the standard of living. It is not really a useful measure of what human activities have done as it does not take into account the vast infrastructure that has been built up and has to be maintained.
696
As we have used up exhaustible resources, particularly oil and natural gas, at an increasing rate.
697 http://www.population.org.au/solutions/index.html
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Sustainable Population Australia recognizes that population growth has to be limited to improve the ability of society to live within the available natural life support system. It proposes a range of sound measures to promote that objective. If implemented, they could well contribute a little to mitigation of the effect of human activities on the ecosystem. It takes the typical anthropogenic view so does not recognize that all human activities entail an irrecoverable eco cost. It therefore presents an optimistic view of what could possibly be achieved.
698 http://www.enn.com/ecosystems/article/23676
Published October 6, 2007. ‘World moves into the ecological red’
LONDON (Reuters) – ‘The world moved into "ecological overdraft" on Saturday, the point at which human consumption exceeds the ability of the earth to sustain it in any year and goes into the red, the New Economics Foundation think-tank said.’ This view is totally misleading. It does not take into account that many of the resources used are exhaustible. It does not take into account that there is a commitment to use some of the remaining resources to maintain the vast infrastructure that has been built up. So the real situation is much worse than this view portrays.
700
It is ironical that this revolution has harmed those means of producing food in a sustainable fashion the most. It has introduced a dependence on the unsustainable use of chemical fertilizers.
702 ‘How Did We Get Into This Mess?’ By George Monbiot. Published in the Guardian
28th August 2007. ‘Many of our current crises are the long-term results of a meeting which took place 60 years ago.’ Monbiot describes the tactics used by the neoliberals to greatly improve the power of the elite at the expense of the majority in recent times. He mentions some of the developing financial, environmental and infrastructure crises that are emerging partly because the success of this neoliberalism has weakened the structure of society. He does not mention the fact that civilization has developed by using up natural resources over millennia and the emerging environmental and infrastructure crises are largely because it has now devastated its life support system. Neoliberalism has devastated social structure and exacerbated the other crises. Monbiot does not recognize
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the fundamental flaw in the operation of society: It is totally dependent on using what is left of natural resources for its operation. The powerful cannot change that fundamental principle although, doubtless, they will avoid the consequences – for a time.
703
"All our lauded technological progress--our very civilization- -is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal."~ Albert Einstein
704
"...a fullness of state power such as only despotism had enjoyed indeed it surpassed all the past because it strove for the formal annihilation of the individual.. .Once the earth is brought under all-embracing economic control, then mankind will find it has been reduced to machinery in its service, as a monstrous clockwork system of ever smaller, more finely adjusted wheels." ~ Fredrick Nietzsche summed up a century ago what the powerful was doing to society. But he erroneously presumed the economic system could control the earth. The reality is that the earth will inevitably win and the economies will die.
705 http://climateandcapitalism.com/?p=296
‘U.S. Ethanol and Amazon Forests: Echoes of Engels’ December 27, 2007
This article comments on the interdependence of aspects of agriculture accentuated by globalization. This leads to localized gains being offset by losses in other regions and with respect to other issues. The article notes that Engels commented on this some time ago but capitalism took no notice because it upset its prime purpose, the making of profits.
‘In The Part Played by Labor in the Transition from Ape to Man, Friedrich Engels wrote:“Let us not, however, flatter ourselves overmuch on account of our human victories over nature. For each such victory nature takes its revenge on us. Each victory, it is true, in the first place brings about the results we expected, but in the second and third places it has quite different, unforeseen effects which only too often cancel the first.
…”
707 January 27, 2008.’Waving Goodbye to Hegemony’ By PARAG
KHANNA
This is a long, incisive discussion of the emerging global political/economic scene. It highlights the developing role
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of the second world countries, largely at the expense of
American declining hegemony. It sees the emergence of a global triumpherate of America, China and Europe in a growing world economy in which second world countries play a clever role. Climate change and energy security are mentioned almost incidentally and there is no comment about the burgeoning world population although the need to help the poor is mentioned. There is the implied competition for natural resources without mention of their exhaustibility.
This is clearly a biased anthropogenic prognostication that will wither under the thrust of irresistible natural forces.
710
Published on Tuesday, December 11, 2007 by Grist Magazine
‘Beyond the Point of No Return. It’s too late to stop climate change — so what do we do now?’ by Ross Gelbspan.
This article is a realistic comment on how civilization has so decimated its life support system, the environment, that the future looks exceedingly grim, even though society in general is still in denial. It provides links to many authoritative comments on what has happened. It recognizes that we cannot solve the climate change problem. It does not, however, recognize the fundamental fact of the
Dependence on Natural Law. It does not recognize that there has been a build up of civilization by so devastating the ecosystem that there is insufficient left to cope adequately with the powering down.
712 The growing political/economic conflict over oil price is indicative of the dependency of industrialized civilization on the continuing supply of this critical component of the exhaustible natural capital even as geological reality starts to hit hard.
713
sponsored by business and endorsed by the politicians and enthusiastically embraced by those who can garner some.
714
food, water, sanitation, energy, transportation, shelter, basic care, health, education and law and order services
715
I summarize what actually happens by The Dependence on Nature Law.
716
Exercised by making decisions without proper regard to the consequences.
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717 There have been past booms and busts for a variety of reasons but now ecological forces are starting to have a major influence.
718 They are probably not so naïve as to believe they can control the climate but they do see this as an opportunity to make money!
719 The coming Greater Depression will painfully speed up the powering down – and the waking up to the Dependence on Nature Law.
720 http://www.kitco. com/ind/schoon/ mar242008. html
’The die cast, the cast will die’ By Darryl Robert Schoon, Mar 24 2008.
This article provides insight into how the American banking system preying upon the populace has now got out of hand. There is no mention of the influence of ecological forces. It represents the common disconnect of financial people from material reality.
722 The exhaustible fossil fuels and metals, fertile soils, arable land, balanced biodiversity, aquifer water, balanced marine ecosystem and others that have evolved only to now be irreversibly consumed so depreciated in the operation and development of the Body of civilization.
723 http://www.abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=423290
9
’Rain Forests Fall at 'Alarming' Rate. Forests Besieged:
With Africa Ahead, World Fells Trees at 'Alarming' Rate,
Imperiling Climate’ By EDWARD HARRIS Associated Press
Writer. “The latest data from the Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) helped spur delegates to action.
"Deforestation continues at an alarming rate of about 13 million hectares (32 million acres) a year," the U.N. body said in its latest "State of the World's Forests" report.
Because northern forests remain essentially stable, that means 50,000 square miles of tropical forest are being cleared every 12 months equivalent to one Mississippi or more than half a Britain. The lumber and fuelwood removed in the tropics alone would fill more than 1,000 Empire
State Buildings, FAO figures show. Although South America loses slightly more acreage than Africa, the rate of loss is higher here almost 1 percent of African forests gone each year. In 2000-2005, the continent lost 10 million acres a year, including big chunks of forest in Sudan,
Zambia and Tanzania, up from 9 million a decade earlier, the FAO reports. Across the tropics the causes can be starkly different. The Amazon and other South American forests are usually burned for cattle grazing or industrial-scale soybean farming. In Indonesia and elsewhere in southeast Asia, island forests are being cut
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or burned to make way for giant plantations of palm, whose oil is used in food processing, cosmetics and other products. In Africa, by contrast, it's individuals hacking out plots for small-scale farming.’ This article describes one deleterious consequence of the high rate of global consumption due to the excessive population coupled with the higher standard of living in many regions. It is just one element in the depreciation of natural capital.
724 ‘ Federal Reserve Plays Russian Roulette with US$’ , by Gary
Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends, January 16, 2008. ‘In an age where governments of every political stripe distort data to promote their own self interests, it’s hardly surprising that they present inflation data in a manner that is best suited to their particular needs. By the same token, it’s entirely natural for official inflation data to be wildly at odds with the reality that is faced by consumers and businesses, and to be regarded with utter disbelief.’ This article covers the current chaotic global financial market with the major players employing different strategies to try and maintain economic growth. There is no mention of the reality that this growth is increasing the rate of declining of natural bounty capital and it now becoming scarce. It is an unsustainable and irreversible process that no amount of money, technology or rhetoric can stop.
726 they talk about the possibility of a recession only. Very few are prepared to say that the Greater Depression is a strong possibility in the near future.
728
It is most likely occurring now but there is little sign of the powers that be adopting the precautionary principle in handling this uncertain matter. They, of course, will not have to suffer the consequences!
730
With the World Trade Organization (WTO) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) having a major influence.
731 http://www.usaee.org/USAEE2006/papers/martintallett.pdf
‘Outlook for Marine Fuels Demand & Regulation: Implications for Refining and Are We
Getting
Global Oil Demand Forecasting Wrong?’ This analysis examines the developing need to reduce the pollutants from the various forms of marine fuels. Its projections are questionable because the are based on continuing global economic growth. However, it
380

does provide an indication of another predicament assuming a degree of importance. It is another manifestation of global entropic growth, the trend for operation of the Body of civilization to become disordered. This is another impost on the remaining natural bounty.
732
For now! Simple logistics sums show that the current level of land, sea and air transportation cannot long continue. The oft cited alternatives can only partially substitute for the concentrated energy obtained from the diminishing fossil fuels.
733
This leverage of money is fostering global entropic growth for no beneficial purpose.
734
Future generations will recognize this as being a classic lose-lose ambit.
735
ST. PETERSBURG: President Vladimir Putin sought to reassure investors and foreign leaders that Russia remained committed to free trade and investment for businesses that work here, in spite of a chill in political relations with the West. Speaking at a business forum here Sunday, Putin called for a new world economic framework based on regional alliances rather than global institutions like the International Monetary Fund. The new system, he said, would reflect the rising power of emerging market economies like
Russia, China, India and Brazil, and the decline of the old heavyweights of the United
States, Japan and many European countries.
737 http://tinyurl. com/367wjv
Common chemicals pose danger for fetuses, scientists warn. ‘Exposure to toxic materials in the womb can cause health problems later in life, an international panel declares.’
By Marla Cone, Times Staff Writer,May 25, 2007
In a strongly worded declaration, many of the world's leading environmental scientists warned Thursday that exposure to common chemicals makes babies more likely to develop an array of health problems later in life, including diabetes, attention deficit disorders, prostate cancer, fertility problems, thyroid disorders and even obesity.
738
There is increasing concern in some circles with the damage inflicted by civilization on the very complex interactions of elements of the ecosystem. This is one of those irreversible processes that society is now having to live with.
381

739 Future generations will have less natural bounty to support their life style and fewer natural wonders to enjoy. Hopefully, however, they will have learnt how to make wiser use of what remains. It is a fact of life that appreciable irrevocable damage has already been done.
740
Those youngsters of today enraptured with the proliferating communication devices are doubtless unaware of the pending demise of this revolution due to the depletion of some of the specialized materials required.
741
Some of the entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley seem to be waking up and this could well lead to some mitigating action.
743
Scientists have contributed to understanding in many fields but that is looking only at the gains. There is awareness amongst many scientists of what is not known about natural operations. The invention of the means of producing electricity has had a profound influence on the development of industrial civilization. The generation of electricity is a process that has deleterious consequences only now being appreciated by some of the informed. The contribution of coal fired power stations to climate change is a prominent example.
744 Society has built up many cities with the associated infrastructure. These are commonly regarded as assets when, in reality, they are becoming liabilities because there is insufficient natural bounty left to maintain them whilst meeting other needs.
745
They are naturally looking for opportunities they can profit from regardless of the consequences that are not in their court.
747 The proposal to pipe some of the water stored in dams at high altitude in Tasmania’s high rainfall area to dry regions on the mainland of Australia could well entail a very worthwhile eco cost for installation and operation. This would be using technology to realize on some of Tasmania’s natural bounty income (heavy rainfall and high lakes) by exporting water. This is already done with the hydro-electric power stations. The perceived worth of this proposal is quite likely to be biased by financial considerations.
The first consideration of the proposers is the potential profit on their investment, not the worth of using some of Tasmania’s natural bounty.
382

749 There is a salutary lesson in the fact that all of civilization’s material structures are temporary. They invariably decay in time even though some natural bounty is used to maintain them.
750
Imagine what would happen to a Boeing 747 if it were not given the proscribed maintenance in order to save on eco cost.
752
Real science is concerned with what actually happens (the subject of this essay) rather than interactions between intangibles, which is the nature of economics.
753
We will be looking closely at the substantive operations of civilization and these are subject to natural laws.
754
It pays a major role in decisions, good and bad.
755
It is based on the production of goods and services, regardless of their worth to society, and does not take into account many elements of the eco cost entailed.
756
‘Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not too sure about the former.’ Albert Einstein (1879 - 1955)
757
the basis for that assertion is developed as we go along.
759
‘It is a simple logical truism that, given a finite Earth, an economic system based on unlimited growth is fundamentally irrational. It is a system that must, inevitably, destroy the planet's natural capital - its soil, water, air, ecology...and people - in pursuit of an artificial 'money' capital whose sole definition and entire raison d'etre resides in its own ceaseless expansion.’ This quote exemplifies the common comment about the limits to growth. It is ironical that it says growth is irrational because the statement is irrational.
The economic system must, inevitably, destroy the planet’s natural capital – its soil, water, air, ecology…and people – in its day to day operations. That is the reality. The pursuit of an artificial ‘money’ capital whose sole definition and entire raison d’etre resides in its own ceaseless expansion just speeds up the rate of destruction of the planet’s natural capital.
760 By depleting exhaustible natural resources and producing irreducible wastes.
761
it is completely illogical, when it is known that there is a limit to the capital, to not take that limit in to account. Yet that is what society does! Even economists should know
383

that about half the stock of oil has been used in a short time so it would be prudent to prepare to do without it.
762
It can well exacerbate the situation by further devastation of the environment.
764
It has become common to espouse the expected benefits but ignore the possible deleterious consequences. Often it is the scientists themselves who follow this line because of their narrow field of view.
765
Correspondence.Nature 447, 775 (14 June 2007). Students unite to create State of the
Planet course. Krystal L. Rypien1, Jill Anderson1, Jason Andras1, Rulon W. Clark1,
Gretchen A. Gerrish1, James T. Mandel1, Marie L. Nydam1 & Daniel K.
Riskin, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University,
Ithaca, New York 14853, USA. This shows some educators who are a wake up to what is required if society is to mitigate what it has done wrong.
766
Fighting "terrorism" is big business, and one of the first opportunities was the market for surveillance cameras with 30 million of them installed in the US, billions of hours of footage, analytic software to scan it, digital image enhancement to help it, and information management and data mining technology to handle all data government collects on everyone and everything. September 11 unlocked the potential, a huge new growth market was created, and protection from terror became more important than big brother watching.
767
Ironical, isn’t it! We have so much more information yet we are unknowingly accelerating down the path of destruction of our civilization.
769 Like the current one that business can save time and money by switching to the virtual world.
770
Tell that fairy tale to the millions in Africa and Asia who do not get these basics.
771
‘When machines and computers, profit motives and property rights are considered more important than people, the giant triplets of racism, materialism, and militarism, are incapable of being conquered. A true revolution of values will soon cause us to question the fairness and justice of many of our past and present policies: - Martin Luther King, Jr
-from "A Time to Break Silence", King's address given on this day, April 4th in 1967 at the Riverside Church in New York City.’ This is a realistic look at some of the problems
384

of society. It is, however, a typically anthropogenic view. It ignores the fact that society is totally dependent on what is available from the natural bounty for its operation.
772 Industrial capital always entails an ongoing eco cost to offset natural wear and tear forces
773 changing perception of circumstances can lead to replacement of industrial capital components but this generally invokes an eco cost premium, which may be worthwhile. For example, replacing a coal-fired power station with wind farms may be judged to be worthwhile.
774
These will often have a high priority when it is realized the harm the existing measures are causing. Restoring barge transportation of goods to replace trucks using roads could well become necessary but will evoke an appreciable eco cost.
775 SAN FRANCISCO -- California and Bay Area cities must start planning now for new and costly systems to control increasing runoff from urban storms, springtime floods. http://news. google.com/ ?ncl=1127455026& hl=en&topic= n
This article gives an indication of the predicaments that many cities will have to face as a consequence of climate change.
776
‘ The draft of the European Commission's Green Paper "Adapting to Climate Change in Europe - Options for EU Action," underlines the scale of the challenge.’ This proposal is indicative of the slowly emerging signs of society responding to the damage civilization has done. But it is only looking at adapting for what climate change may do to the Body of civilization. ‘threaten Europe's social and economic systems and its security.’
777
From the NY Times, August 22, 2007 ‘Go Green and Save Money’ By THOMAS L.
FRIEDMAN. ’Have your eyes recently popped out of your head when you opened your electric bill? Do you, like me, live in one of those states where electricity has been deregulated and the state no longer oversees the generation price so your utility rates have skyrocketed since 2002? If so, you need to listen to a proposal being aired by Jim Rogers, the chairman and chief executive of Duke Energy, and recently filed with the North
Carolina Utilities Commission. (Duke Energy is headquartered in Charlotte.) It’s called
‘save-a-watt’ and it aims to turn the electricity/ utility industry upside down by rewarding utilities for the kilowatts they save customers by improving their energy efficiency rather than rewarding them for the kilowatts they sell customers by building more power plants.’ This is a very sound proposal to reduce the demand for energy, so the impact of
385

its production on the climate and the environment, without really affecting the quality of living.
778
that hopefully will spring out of the Earthly Revolution.
780
McMansions, private jets, luxurious yachts and other indicators of blatant consumption.
781
The cheap credit binge in recent years has provided many with the illusion of increasing wealth when in reality it has produced an increase in the rate of draw down of the natural bounty. The distortion index of money, particularly with the USD, has skyrocketed.
782 It helps to slow down the economy, so the rate of depreciation of natural capital. It is like foul tasting medicine that will ease the senescence of the Body.
783
Depending on the worth as perceived by society
784
as they are the result of a draw down of natural bounty capital with the consequential production of waste.
786
By excessive draw down of the natural bounty
787
we ascribe a false sense of value to many structures because we do not take into account the total eco cost of its erection and maintenance. That is WoEC has not been realistically evaluated even though the financial cost was.
789
The Independent, January 9, 2007.
‘How richest fuel global warming - but poorest suffer most from it’. by Philip Thornton gives indication of how the rich countries have largely caused the climate change that will have the greatest impact in the poor countries.
790 By adulation and attempted emulation
791
their tendency to idolize the rich bolsters the egotism of these parasites.
793
The common definition of ‘economics’ is implied here. That is, the application of money to control and measure production of goods and services. This usage is not consistent with ‘wise use of resources’ contained in some dictionary definitions of
‘economics’! This discrepancy is understandable as there is very little wise usage of natural resources.
386

794 Naomi Klein, Saturday September 29, 2007,The Guardian observed that ‘Perhaps the true purpose of the entire literature of trickle-down theory is to liberate entrepreneurs to pursue their narrowest advantage while claiming global altruistic motives - not so much an economic philosophy as an elaborate, retroactive rationale.’
795
As pointed out, an improving (material) standard of living is really an oxymoron when above a moderate level as it entails an unreasonable draw down of the irreplaceable natural bounty.
796 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/12/business/12scene.html
‘In the Real World of Work and Wages, Trickle-Down Theories Don’t Hold Up’ by
ROBERT H. FRANK. This article provides compelling evidence that the much touted
(by a very selective constituency) that lowering taxes on the well-paid executive will encourage them to work harder, so benefiting economic growth, does not work in practice. It takes the conventional view, however, that economic growth is a good, even when the standard of living is over the affordable (in terms of natural bounty) peak.
797
New York Times report. German Press Agency, Published: Thursday March 29, 2007
The income gap between rich and poor in the United States has increased significantly.
According to the report, new analyses of 2005 tax data shows that the top 300,000
Americans collectively enjoyed almost as much income as the bottom 150 million
Americans. Per person, the top group received 440 times as much as the average person in the bottom half earned, nearly doubling the gap from 1980. http://civilliberta rian.blogspot. com/2007/ 04/american- dream-now- nightmare- for.html
American Dream Now a Nightmare for Millions. U.S. Census: One in Five Lives on Less than $7 per day’ By William Shanley, New Haven, Connecticut (April 16, 2007) From
Combined News . This article accentuates the grim situation in the U.S. It is, however, a worldwide phenomenon although muted in some countries.
799
It is a mutation of the money virus
387

801 it is really a pseudonym for devaluation of the ecosystem. It is a reasonable aim where it enables the community to obtain basic needs. However, it has gone too far in the consumptive communities. The ideal aim would be for a standard of living for all commensurate with the available natural bounty with a margin for those who contribute more.
802
it is the strongest myth of all. Society will continue to rush down the self-destruct path so long as this myth guides major decisions.
803
‘Change the system - not the climate!’ by Norm Dixon, 26 January 2007 contains
‘Marx's account of the essential operations of the capitalist system identifies its fundamentally anti-ecological trait. During the long period of pre-capitalist simple commodity production, peasants and artisans sold their surplus produce for money to buy goods to meet their other immediate needs. This circuit of commodities and money takes the form of Commodity-Money-Commodity (C-M-C), and usually ends with the consumption of the commodity. However, under the capitalist mode of production in which commodity production is now generalized the circuit begins and ends with money.
The capitalist buys or produces commodities in order to sell them for a profit, and then buys or produces more to sell more again. The formula is now M-C-M', in which M' represents the original outlay to buy or produce the commodities, plus the surplus value created by the workers' labor during their production. There is no end to the process because capitalists' aim is to reinvest the surplus, or accumulate the capital, from the previous cycle. Competition between capitalists ensures that each one must continue to reinvest their "earnings", increase their production of commodities and continue to expand. Production tends to expand exponentially until interrupted by crises (depressions and wars). It is this dynamic at the core of capitalism that places unsustainable pressure on the environment.’ This is a good description of the force behind growth. But it is based on the false premise that there is an infinite supply of the natural resources that are the basis for the production of goods. The ecological economists spelt this out decades ago but they have been ignored. The reality is that the natural bounty is irrevocably declining.
388

804 The majority of people in the developed countries enjoy a standard of living far higher than the ecosystem can afford.
805
Because the natural bounty is limited, even if the leaders ignore that fact. They should be made to face reality by putting them on a food ration of dollar notes!
806
Who are not really interested in the reality because they will not have to suffer the consequences.
807
A crucial element in adjusting your mindset is to recognize that economic growth can be evil rather than good. It is so dependent on misusing and abusing what Gaia provides for, in many cases, little benefit to the community. The pursuit of the intangible economic growth in reality leads to increasing entropic growth, the declining of the state of the ecosystem. A modicum of economic growth is to be encouraged where it will enable more of the masses to obtain the essentials but not where it facilitates ravaging by the well off.
809
It is like advertising of cigarettes which fosters the illusory benefits of smoking.
810
It is a manifestation of civilization under the stimulus of capitalism that people have to be employed to earn enough to get sustenance.
811 Marketing unhealthy products is just one example.
812 In fact there are many jobs that encourage unhealthy and even destructive practices.
813 Increasing numbers of elderly people would present no predicament as more aged care would be readily available.
814
As synthetic food goes into rapid decline. Organic food production needs more skilled labor to partially replace the fossil fuel subsidy. There is reason to believe, however, that it can eventually play a major role in feeding a powered down society.
http//transitionculture.org/2007/02/13/vandana-shivas-closing-address-to-the-soilassociation-conference//
Vandana Shiva’s Closing Address to the Soil Association Conference. ‘Taking the Oil
Out of Agriculture’. Posted by Rob under Peak Oil, Food, Localisation. ‘Dr Vandana
Shiva is one of the most inspirational and powerful speakers you will ever hear. Her closing lecture to the Soil Association conference was electrifying, passionate and
389

sobering.’ Shiva point out the mistake made by the commercialization of food production. She indicates how it would be possible to revert to a more sustainable form of farming while restoring dignity to doing manual, but truly productive, work on the land.
This type of discussion is bound to develop rapidly as the declining availability of industrial energy encourages realistic dialogue. It will help to mitigate the decline even though it does not address over population.
815 http://www.alternet.org/environment/52077/
‘Why Working Less is Better for the Globe’ By Dara Colwell, AlterNet. Posted May 21,
2007.’Americans are working harder than ever before and at a greater cost to the environment. Research suggests that practicing a more simple lifestyle made people happier while using fewer resources.’ This article describes the emerging movement towards this win-win way of helping the environment and the players. It is the type of movement that is bound to grow rapidly as a positive way of powering down.
816
So less time spend in the periodic throwing out of surplus goods.
817
To the consternation of the politicians and economists who have the inane belief in the fairy tale that GDP growth is good. It may be good for them - for now – but who is going to pay for their free lunch?
818 A number of more realistic measures have been proposed but not adopted. Big
Business will continue to support the use of GDP because their profits tend to grow with it. From Wikipedia. ‘The Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) is a concept in green economics and welfare economics that has been suggested as a replacement metric for gross domestic product (GDP) as a metric of economic growth. Unlike GDP it is claimed by its advocates to more reliably distinguish uneconomic growth - almost all advocates of a GDP would accept that some economic growth is very harmful.’ This would appear to many as being a more realistic measure. Yet it envisages a realistic growth as being progress, even though this growth means an increased rate of using natural resources, including the exhaustible ones. GPI quite clearly is not a contribution to the examination of reality even though it is better than GDP.
820 Often money is disbursed to save time as well as energy use.
821
Foreign investment in China to take advantage of the low labor costs is resulting in appreciable waste of natural resources in manufacturing cheap stuff for Western markets without contributing much to increasing the standard of living of the workers.
390

822 The growth in the interest in permaculture and intentional communities are some current examples.
824
The objective to get rich quick often drives entrepreneurs and venture capitalists to use unsound consumption of resources to create a spurious demand. This is an example of fallacious ‘progress’. Only time will tell on whether the essay of Silicon Valley in to
‘clean’ ‘renewable’ energy will make a useful contribution to mitigating the decline.
825
"We live with the illusion of technological utopia, but are faced with ecological catastrophe" Ron Resnick
826
think of how many serviceable computers and other electronic items are thrown out because updating is seen to be the thing to do!
827
and this generally does not mean financially!
829 It is ironical that paper consumption is still increasing despite much trumpeted recycling (‘ Limits to Growth: the Thirty Year Update’, page 80)
830 http://economist.co.uk/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9249262
‘The truth about recycling’ Jun 7th 2007 From The Economist print edition.’ As the importance of recycling becomes more apparent, questions about it linger. Is it worth the effort? How does it work? Is recycling waste just going into a landfill in China? Here are some answers.’ This comprehensive article gives a conventional view of the financial value of what is termed ‘recycling’. It does not point out that the ‘recycling’ only extends the life of the material at some eco cost.
831
For example, ‘recycling’ of aluminum is generally a sound practice.
832
True ‘recycling’ in nature has a profound influence on what happens.
833
Like water and all plants if allowed to by us!
834
Washing and drying clothes for wearing is a trivial form of recycling driven by energy input. It is better to let insolation do the drying when the sun is out. It is similar in principle to the daily functioning of my body.
835 http://money. cnn.com/magazine s/fortune/ fortune_archive/ 2007/03/19/
8402369/index. htm
391

The end of garbage. Can you imagine a world of zero waste? Cities and towns across the world and a surprising number of companies - have adopted that goal, says Fortune's
Marc Gunther
March 14 2007 -- "Garbage," says the character played by Andie MacDowell in Sex,
Lies, and Videotape. "All I've been thinking about all week is garbage. We've got so much of it, you know? I mean, we have to run out of places to put this stuff eventually."
This article details many instances of waste management in the U.S. that are significant achievements. They are bound to lead to further progress but the ‘zero waste’ objective is an oxymoron. Nevertheless, this program has every signs of being worthwhile as it reduces the eco costs involved. That is, it slows down U.S. entropic growth. It also contributes by enabling many worthwhile jobs. The fact that the companies involved do it partly because they make money from this activity is an example of market forces being in the right direction!
837
An American financier is predicting that China will be ‘next economic superpower’ and sees that as opening up opportunities to supply them with raw materials. This is an example of an economist simply failing to face up to the reality that there are just not the natural resources to make this a possibility. China is already having to face up to an extreme water shortage, vast desertification and pollution. This economic view really is gross incompetence but this financier is unlikely to have to pay the price.
838
Of Illusory Democracies, Rogue States, and Accelerating Humanity’s
Demise http://civillibertarian.blogspot.com/2007/02/pox-upon-mr-armstrongs-wonderfulworld.html
By Jason Miller provides some insight into the situation, good and bad, in this rapidly growing economy. The powerful assume the limelight but it is the condition of the masses that will have the greatest long-term impact.
839
Their governments are talking about co-operating to ensure energy security, mainly to meet the demands of the urban elite. They do not openly discuss the horrendous predicaments faced by rural communities in both countries.
840 Particularly those in the Western countries who have invested heavily in these countries to take advantage of the cheap labor costs.
392

841 Earth Policy Institute, Plan B 2.0 Book Byte. For Immediate Release, April 3, 2007
‘PLAN B BUDGET FOR ERADICATING POVERTY AND STABILIZING
POPULATION’ http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/Seg/PB2ch07_intro.htm
‘Lester R. Brown. The twenty-first century began on an inspiring note when the countries that belong to the United Nations adopted the goal of cutting the number of people living in poverty in half by 2015. And as of 2005, the world is ahead of schedule for reaching this goal. There are two big reasons for this: China and India. China’s economic growth of 9 percent a year over the last quarter-century and India’s acceleration to close to 6 percent a year over the last decade are together lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty.’ This plan has an admirable objective and notes that real progress is being made in India and China, largely because of their economic growth. This progress is misleading, however, as the ecological costs are not included. Consequently, there is reason to believe this progress is not sustainable. The impact of climate change, water supply problems, desertification and increasing pollution could well reduce the effectiveness of this plan.
842 http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/globalwarming/2007-04-01-seafood_N.htm
‘Seafood poisoning increases as oceans become warmer, more polluted’ By Michael
Casey, Associated Press. ILOILO, Philippines Bowls of piping hot barracuda soup were the much-anticipated treat when the Roa family gathered for a casual and relaxing
Sunday meal. Within hours, all six fell deathly ill. So did two dozen others from the same neighborhood. Some complained of body-wide numbness. Others had weakness in their legs. Several couldn't speak or even open their mouths.
843
The well off largely ignore this problem – now. Wait until it reaches them in the not too distant future! http://www.thenatio n.com/doc/ 20070827/ ehrenreich
393

’Smashing Capitalism’by BARBARA EHRENREICH
[posted online on August 20, 2007] This article examines how greedy capitalism has over-reached itself in the U.S. by further degrading the working class by throwing in cheap credit. The trickle up effect will have its impact on the well off as sub prime debt feeds up through the financial market.
844
The emergence of corporations that specialize in recovery operations for natural and human caused disasters is a significant development that would be beneficial if it were not so blatantly financially exploitative. This disaster capitalism is an example of capitalism at its worst.
846 The basic ‘needs’ of people is generally understood and taken for granted in many
(well off) communities, for now. The ‘wants’ vary appreciably with circumstances.
847
There are quite a few countries where that failure is already a major predicament.
848
and that will require a profound cultural change
849
They could well make a major contribution through their vast supply of intellectual energy. Power down can only occur where society’s consumption plus remediation plus mitigation matches Heinberg’s sustainability axioms 3 and 4. This does not mean that collapse can be avoided, as axiom 5 cannot be satisfied.
851
‘Well, here's one possible explanation: science--and by this we mean 'actually existing' science--is capital's way of knowing the world, and furthermore, science is the handmaiden of empire. It's no accident that ballistics and the development of weapons of mass murder are at the heart of modern physics. Now the cult of the atom is mirrored and even matched by the cult of the gene. The stakes are high, they tell us, global warming and oil depletion loom.’ This extract presents a credible view of the actual role of scientists in fostering the rape of the ecosystem.
852 Yet there has been gross misunderstanding of the consequences of the combustion of fossil fuels. For centuries we have enthused at the heat energy this has provided whilst almost ignoring the impact of the fumes. Nature, unfortunately, has not been able to cope with this particular exuberance so now we have to cope with the climate change we have
394

caused. Industrialized civilization is like the heavy smoker who now has to cope with lung cancer.
853
The emergence of new knowledge is quite bewildering in its rapidity. It tends to accentuate how little we did know in the past. It tends to explain why we got so many things wrong.
854
It is often difficult to propel specialist knowledge into mainstream understanding. This tends to explain why the powerful have so little understanding of the geobiophysical consequences of their decisions.
855 All material elements of civilization are life limited
856
Most people, including scientists, do not seem to understand that everything we do and use entails the irreversible consumption of natural resources and the consequential production of irrevocable waste material.
857
That synthetic product, fast food is starting to be recognized as having value only in generating profits for its purveyors.
858
The information revolution has resulted in information overload. Now there is a field of endeavor to try and extract knowledge from this vast amount of information. This is another very lucrative example of technology chasing its tail.
859 This note from the U.S. ‘This sounds like an alarming lapse in governmental oversight until you realize there has never before been much reason to worry about food safety on farms. But these days, the way we farm and the way we process our food, both of which have been industrialized and centralized over the last few decades, are endangering our health. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that our food supply now sickens 76 million Americans every year, putting more than 300,000 of them in the hospital, and killing 5,000. The lethal strain of E. coli known as 0157:H7, responsible for this latest outbreak of food poisoning, was unknown before 1982; it is believed to have evolved in the gut of feedlot cattle.’ gives one example of how society has blindly discarded established sound principles in the pursuit of economic efficiency and now the health of many is the price being paid for those cheap hamburgers, but not by the perpetrators!
860
The use of this term conveys a false impression in most cases. Generally we are really considering mitigation of a predicament. It would be presumptuous to call it a ‘solution’.
395

861 The chief source of problems is solutions - Eric Sevareid’s Law
862
most people, even informed ones, do not realize that the development of the foundations of civilization is an irreversible process. The best that can be done is to adopt methods to mitigate its decline. And that includes trying to maintain the structures of the cities.
864
I say intriguing because I have not seen this very important point explicitly made in any of the material I have researched. It is implied in many of them, naturally, because it is a fundamental point.
865
For example, Heinberg says on p11 that ‘since it takes work to create and maintain order within a system, the entropy law tells us that, in the battle between order and chaos, it is chaos that ultimately will win.’ Whilst this is so ultimately, it is misleading because the temporary order can be an important part of the operation. We have a lot of order in our cities now, although it is transistory.
866
A manifestation of the Second Law of Thermodynamics with order tending to disorder.
867
I introduce this term here as there is a need to have the opposite to ‘dispersive’.
868 I make the case below that this universal characteristic should be recognized as the
Fourth Law of Thermodynamics.
869 Increasing order
870 so increasing disorder
871
Mountains and other geological features that are so important to the operation of the ecosystem were formed eons ago by generative processes. We do not need to know how.
We just know that they did occur.
872
Tendency towards maturity.
873
We see later why this has such a significant impact on the general misperception of the place of the Body of civilization in the operation of the ecosystem.
875
Another major mistake made by those who fail to pay attention is overlooking the unanticipated consequences of new technology, which more often than not add additional layers of predicaments to existing ones. In the energy sector, one of the most vivid examples is seen in
396

the short history of the world's last truly great oil discovery, the North Sea fields between
Norway and the UK. They were found in the '60s, got into production in the late '70s, and were pumping at full blast in the early '90s. Then, around 1999, they peaked and are now in extremely steep decline—up to 50 percent a year in the case of some UK fields. The fact that they were drilled with the latest and best new technology turns out to mean that they were drained with stunning efficiency. "New technology" only hastened Britain's descent into energy poverty. Now, after a twenty-year- long North Sea bonanza in which it enjoyed an orgy of suburbanization, Great Britain is again a net energy importer. Soon the Brits will have no
North Sea oil whatsoever and will find themselves below their energy diet of the grim
1950s.
876
there are renowned scientists like Lovelock who raise the possibility of innovative measures providing useful substitutes to the fossil fuels as the source of industrial energy and for slowing down global warming. These are possibly worthwhile measures but they will only slow down entropic growth.
877 It cannot create oil but it can affect how much is extracted.
879 they enabled industrialization
880 http://www.counterpunch.org/jensen07102003.html
‘Sustainability and Politics’July 10, 2003
An Interview with Wes Jackson By ROBERT JENSEN. Wes Jackson and his colleagues at The Land Institute are working on a 10,000 year-old problem -- agriculture.
Not simply problems in agriculture, but the problem of agriculture.’ Jackson, in this interview with Jensen, articulates many of the concerns contained in this essay, especially how human operations are dependent on using the ecosystem. Jackson, however, does not recognize the intrinsic fault of the synthetic systems we have installed. The Consequence
Axiom provides substantive support to his views.
881
with the help of exhaustible chemical fertilizers, pesticides and fuels!
397

882 ON LINE Opinion
‘Getting more bang from our crops’ By Tony Fischer - posted Tuesday, 21 August 2007
Dr Fischer received the Farrer Memorial Medal and made the Farrer Memorial Oration in
Canberra on August 14, at a ceremony held to coincide with the Crawford Fund 2007
Conference, Biofuels, Energy and Agriculture.’ He discussed the progress made in increasing wheat yields by selective breeding and improving crop management procedures. His discourse conveys the impression that this progress can continue.
Unfortunately he fails to mention how much these past achievements have been at the expense of drawing down on the exhaustible oil, natural gas and phosphates. He has looked at only one side of the ledger. The temporary increase in wheat yields has been at the expense of a permanent decline in this natural capital. Has it really been worthwhile?
883 http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070223.wclimatestarve0224/
BNStory/ClimateChange/?cid=al_gam_nletter_newsUp
‘How global warming goes against the grain’ by MARTIN MITTELSTAEDT
From Saturday's Globe and Mail. The place where most of the world's people could first begin to feel the consequences of global warming may come as a surprise: in the stomach, via the supper plate. The scale of agriculture's vulnerability to global warming was highlighted late last year when the Consultative Group on International Agricultural
Research (CGIAR), an umbrella organization representing 15 of the world's top crop research centres, issued an astounding estimate of the impact of climate change on a single crop, wheat, in one of the world's major breadbaskets. "The impacts on agriculture in developing countries, and particularly on countries that depend on rain-fed agriculture, are likely to be devastating," says Dr. Louis Verchot, principal ecologist at the World
Agroforestry Centre in Nairobi, Kenya.
884
These are resources like the fossil fuels that have stocks limited by geological factors.
Some authors use this term for resources like forests.
398

885 http://www.organicc onsumers. org/articles/ article_5383. cfm
Lowest Food Supplies in 50 or 100 Years: Global Food Crisis Emerging
National Farmers Union of Canada, May 11, 2007
Qualman said that the converging problems of natural gas and fertilizer constraints, intensifying water shortages, climate change, farmland loss and degradation, population increases, the proliferation of livestock feeding, and an increasing push to divert food supplies into biofuels means that we are in the opening phase of an intensifying food shortage. Qualman provides details of the emerging food crisis.
886
Partly because soil fertility is declining but growing crops to provide fuels and the impact of climate change are not helping.
Lowest Food Supplies in 50 or 100 Years:
Global Food Crisis Emerging
National
Straight
Farmers Union to of Canada, the
May 11, 2007
Source
SASKATOON, Sask.-Today, the United States Department of Agriculture
(USDA) released its first projections of world grain supply and demand for the coming crop year: 2007/08. USDA predicts supplies will plunge to a 53-day equivalent-their lowest level in the 47-year period for which data exists.
888
The journal Nature reports "Global carbon emissions are now growing by 3.2% a year... That's four times higher than the average annual growth of 0.8% from 1990-99...
We are not on any of the stabilization paths." We are well beyond Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of the emissions levels needed to prevent damaging climate change. International negotiations are lagging. China currently
399

contributes some 16% to global emissions, but accounts for 40% of the growth in world emissions. Raupach also told the meeting that, to stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide levels at 550 parts per million, the world must release no more than 750 giga tonnes of extra carbon into the atmosphere. Even this — which is often regarded as a politically realistic target — is expected to lead to global warming of more than 2 degrees Celsius on pre-industrial temperatures. The current level is 380 ppmv.
889
Whilst there are deniers of this assertion who continue to gain attention, the vast majority of climatologists support it.
‘Are scientists overestimating -- or underestimating
-- climate change’ http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2007/8/21/102318/112
Posted by Joseph Romm on 21 Aug 2007
Is just one article that makes the strong case that human activities have instigated a serious and irreversible climate change. It cites many scientific articles in support of this view.
890
A newly published synthesis of 866 peer-reviewed studies of the effect of climate change on wild plants and animals has found what its author, Camille Parmesan, an assistant professor of integrative biology at the University of Texas at Austin, describes as a "clear, globally coherent conclusion." As the Bush administration debates much of the world about what to do about global warming, butterflies and ski-lift operators, polar bears and hydroelectric planners are on the move.
‘A SHOCK TO THE ANCIENT RHYTHMS OF THE NATURAL WORLD’ By
Michael McCarthy, The Independent, December 21, 2006
< http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article2091876.ece
> http://news.independent
.co.uk/environment/article2091876.ece
Animals that hibernate in winter abandoning hibernation: yet another signal that something momentous is happening to the rhythms of the natural world, in the way in which we have always understood them.
400

891
Atmospheric scientists have reported a new and potentially important mechanism by which chemical emissions from ocean phytoplankton may influence the formation of clouds that reflect sunlight away from our planet. This intimate connection between life and the environment of
Earth could have profound implications for the future of our planet's global ecosystem.
There is appreciable uncertainty about how much this mechanism will impact the ecological system but it is one amongst many possibilities.
892
‘Global warming already killing species, analysis says’
Science and Space, November 21, 2006
Animal and plant species have begun dying off or changing sooner than predicted because of global warming, a review of hundreds of research studies contends. These fast-moving adaptations come as a surprise even to biologists and ecologists because they are occurring so rapidly. I feel as though we are staring crisis in the face," Futuyma said.
"It's not just down the road somewhere. It is just hurtling toward us. Anyone who is 10 years old right now is going to be facing a very different and frightening world by the time that they are 50 or 60."
893
In ‘The End of Eden’ James Lovelock says this time we've pushed the Earth too far’ by Michael Powell, Washington Post Staff Writer, September 2, 2006
894 http://arxiv.org/abs/0704.2782
‘Implications of "peak oil" for atmospheric CO2 and climate’
Authors: P.A. Kharecha, J.E. Hansen (NASA GISS and Columbia Univ. Earth Institute)
(Submitted on 20 Apr 2007)
This paper provides insight into the mechanism involved in the increasing CO2 level, including the impact of residence time. It also gives some estimates of the mitigation influence of limited fossil fuel supply on climate change.
401

895 We have no means of significantly reducing the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and nature has already shown that it cannot cope with the rapid rise in the past century due primarily to fossil fuel combustion. Planting more trees will only offset the vast amount of de-forestation to an insignificant degree.
896
‘Oceans seen soaking up less CO2’, Oct 20, 2007. LONDON (Reuters) - The world's oceans appear to be soaking up less carbon dioxide, new environmental research has shown, a development that could speed up global warming. A 10-year study by researchers from the University of East Anglia has shown that the uptake of CO2 by the North Atlantic ocean halved between the mid-1990s and 2002-2005."Such large changes are a tremendous surprise," said Dr Ute Schuster, who will publish the findings with professor Andrew Watson in the Journal of Geophysical Research next month. "We expected that the uptake would change only slowly because of the ocean's great mass."’ The implications of this knowledge are not clear, as it appeared that most climatologists expected that the oceans would absorb more CO2 as the atmosphere warmed. It could be a RFM that would make climate change worse than the IPCC models currently indicate.
897 'Siberian forest fires due to climate change'
< http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2007/08/01/scisiberia101.xml
> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2007/08/01/scisiberia101.xml
By Roger Highfield, Telegraph UK, 01/08/2007. ‘Devastating forest fires in Siberia that send a pall of smoke worldwide are happening more frequently because of climate change and in turn accelerating the pace of global warming, scientists claim. In Central
Siberia alone fires destroyed 15,000 square miles in 2003, triggering plumes which were linked with air pollution measured as far away as America. The forest fires send as much greenhouse gas into the atmosphere as the total EU reduction commitment under the
Kyoto protocol.’ This is one example of a reinforcing feedback mechanism (RFM) that could well be making a significant contribution to global warming. The forest fires in
South East Asia are deemed to have a similar effect.
402

898 Almost all of the systems that have been looked at are in reinforcing feedback... and soon those effects will be larger than any of the effects of carbon dioxide emissions from industry and so on around the world," Lovelock added. The three major feedback systems causing gravest concern are Arctic sea ice, melting permafrost in Siberia and northern
Canada (releasing methane causing more greenhouse gas effect than U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide) and reduction in land and ocean carbon dioxide sinks.
899 http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/006265.html
How to Think Differently About Climate. This site contains a number of articles that seemingly address how society can tackle climate change. It stretches credibility when it advocates reducing the CO2 in the atmosphere by planting trees. That plan would have little impact on the damage being done by deforestation let alone by fossil fuel emissions.
Nevertheless, it is a positive contribution to the increasing dialog about what can be done to limit the impact of climate change.
900 http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070503/sc_afp/climatewarmingeurope
‘Mediterranean nations launch climate change study, Thu May 3, BOLOGNA, Italy
(AFP) - The countries encircling the Mediterranean Sea launched a four-year study of climate change Thursday, the region's first large-scale analysis of the impact of global warming and how to cope with it.’ This article discusses collaborative, systemic research to address how the region should adapt to the expected impact of climate change. It is the type of activity that is expected to grow rapidly globally in conjunction with mitigation measures.
901
But they also say that tough action now to cut carbon emissions could stop atmospheric concentrations of CO2 hitting 450 parts per million -- equivalent to a temperature rise of 2C from pre-industrial levels – and save the planet. There seems to be a general acceptance by authoritative sources that climate change is underway and they are encouraging mitigating action to try and prevent climate chaos. There does seem to be a good case to also initiate action to adapt to the climate change already under way.
902 It is quite amazing to see how common this lack of understanding of simple physics is amongst policy makers and in the media.
403

903 Which can only be done when all the big emitters (U.S., China, India, EU) adopt practical industrial energy production and conservation policies that lead to massive reductions in GHG emission rates.
904
Jeremy Leggett's presentation to the ASPO 5 conference in Pisa Italy this last summer, in the next to last slide he provides a graphic representation between carbon needed to force a 2 degrees change and the amounts of carbon in the available resources of oil, gas, and coal The figures are to produce a 2 degree rise in global temperature we would need to put another 400 billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere. There are estimated, I assume on ASPO's figures 700 billion tons of carbon in the remaining oil, 500 in gas, and
3,500 in coal.
906
Dr. Michael Cohen says in "Reconnecting With Nature" that ‘The biosphere integrates
Earth's atmosphere, sunlight, ocean, soil, plants animals and minerals. In mutual support
(and defying the universal laws of entropy) this life community cooperatively diversifies and grows without producing garbage or pollution or our excessive stress, violence and disorders. Natural systems are exemplified by the purifying and self-correcting flow of the water cycle locally and globally. Throughout the biosphere the grace, balance and restorative powers of natural systems regenerate and maintain the well-being of life.’ It is a pity that this wise statement is spoilt by his common misunderstanding of evolutionary entropy development.
907
to energy input. A case is made later that these generative processes should be recognized as following the Fourth Law of Thermodynamics.
908 There is good reason to believe that the entropy of Gaia was decreasing (with energy input from insolation), so increasing order, until industrial civilization disrupted and unbalanced the process. However, this speculation about the slowly evolving entropy of
Gaia has no relevance to the entropy of the Body of civilization, which is now probably growing after a period of increasing order.
910
This is a common but misleading use of the term ‘energy’. The terminology is clarified later. It is really referring to industrial physical energy. Some sources refer to it as ‘commercial energy’. In both cases, the reference is to the provision of electricity or fuels that power the operation of the machinery of civilization.
404

911 The ‘renewable energy’ entry in Wikipedia discusses the source of the energy but does not mention the fact that this energy invariably ends up as waste heat when used. There is no recognition of that fact that energy is an attribute of matter that invariably ends up as waste.
912
It has to be above the equilibrium level to be useful.
913
This principle is formalized as the Second Law of Thermodynamics.
914
Where the chemical energy has been stored for eons
915
or as Lovelock puts it in ‘the Revenge of Gaia’ ‘It is not possible in this universe to use energy for any purpose, good or bad, without corrupting it’.
916
Bear in mind that the ecological consequences of using physical energy are not affected by what it is used for. For example, flaring a quantity of natural gas at the wellhead has essentially the same result as using that same quantity of gas in the nearbypower station to generate electricity. The financial consequences are, naturally, very different. Flaring is still common with Russia being the worst culprit. It is contributing significantly to GHG emissions for no worthwhile purpose. It is a classic example of market forces getting it wrong.
917 The First Law reminds us that the quantity of energy dissipated in the process is equal to the quantity input.
919 http://www.orionmagazine.org/index.php/articles/article/467/
‘Small Change. The Unsung Solution. What rhymes with waste-heat recovery?’ by Bill
McKibben. Published in the November/December 2007 issue of Orion magazine. This article tells about some practical means of using the waste heat from processes for useful purposes. Wider adoption of methods like these would make a small contribution to making wiser use of industrial energy. It does not, however, clarify for the non-technical that there are fundamental thermodynamic and mechanical limitations to what is worthwhile in many circumstances.
921
Burning the coal results in the emission of greenhouse gases contributing to climate change, the production of pollutants and entails using large amounts of water for cooling purposes. It also entails a wide range of material consumption and environmental damage.
405

922 but that is what politicians and business people do. Surprisingly, many knowledgeable people concerned with what is happening concentrate on this issue rather than the holistic malaise of the foundations of civilization. It is a major issue but aiming to tackle it alone is a dangerous approach.
924
this myth stems from the attitude of the well off in the industrialized world because they do not have to worry about getting the basics. They will soon change their minds when they find food, water, shelter etc hard to come by.
925
Kieron Brennan, managing director of LogicaCMG's energy and utilities business, said: "Action needs to be taken now to reduce the energy gap. We are not trying to scaremonger but our job is to provide guidance to the businesses we work with and help them understand and manage their future energy requirements.” Energy requirements top the bill in industrialized society as it is a necessary adjunct to economic growth. It is based on the false presumption that the basic needs (food, water, etc) of a rapidly expanding urban population can be met by providing more industrial energy to produce stuff and provide unnecessary services.
926 It is ironical that governance and business are so technically naïve that they do not appreciate how much scarce water is required (in steam generation of for cooling purposes)to produce the energy used by society. Often this water ends up as being polluted.
927
‘There is no substitute for energy. The whole edifice of modern society is build upon it. It is not “just another commodity” but the precondition of all commodities, a basic factor equal with air, water and earth.’ E.F.Schumacher (1973). This quote puts in to perspective the common misleading concentration on energy at the expense of ignoring the consequences of misusing water and fertile soil and polluting air. We are now learning the hard way that the supply of these three cannot be taken for granted in many regions.
928
Many Africans, Indians and South Americans are more aware of this predicament.
They cannot get enough!
929
A NSW government document details how drastically soil fertility has declined in this
Australian state. It illustrates a world-wide predicament that is relatively unnoticed.
930
A list, including copper and lead, could be inserted here.
931
Wood for a wide range of purposes is just one example
406

932 microbes provide valuable services almost unnoticed. We are more aware of the pollination services provided by bees but have forgotten the medicinal properties of honey. It seems that bees do not like GM food! Or could it be microwaves they do not like?
933
Some would argue that it is the classic example of Liebig’s Law of the Minimum.
Scarcity of oil is bound to have a major impact but that is partly due to the fact that cheap oil has facilitated food production so over population. It is, however, a mistake to focus on one item when the aggregated impact of all is more realistic.
934
Which the major powers covertly recognize, so aim to ensure their energy security at the expense of others. They have yet to learn that industrial energy comes at an irrevocable eco cost.
936
That is why they embraced the use of coal to cause global warming!
937
We are only slowly waking up to the need to apply the precautionary principle. The development of the Body of civilization is irreversible so it would have been wise not to instigate a novel procedure until it is reasonably certain that it will have no deleterious effects. Too late! A lot of damage has already been done.
938 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/14/science/earth/14fenc.html?_r=1&ref=science&oref
=slogin
‘At Australia’s Bunny Fence, Variable Cloudiness Prompts Climate Study’ By SONAL
NOTICEWALA, August 14, 2007. A fence built to prevent rabbits from entering the
Australian outback has unintentionally allowed scientists to study the effects of land use on regional climates.’ This study provides evidence that agriculture causes a reduction in rainfall.
939
The most serious one is that there are now too many of species Homo sapiens
942 for example, those countries with good oil reserves will become wealthier as the oil price goes up and they will flaunt this wealth – for now. Dubai is an extreme example of this indiscretion.
945
To quote the father of anarcho-capitalism, the late Murray N. Rothbard,
407

It so happens that the free-market economy, and the specialization and division of labor it implies, is by far the most productive form of economy known to man, and has been responsible for industrialization and for the modern economy on which civilization has been built. This is a fortunate utilitarian result of the free market, but it is not, to the libertarian, the prime reason for his support of this system. That prime reason is moral ...
[emphasis added]
-- The Libertarian Manifesto
This quote sums up one of the major misconceptions of society. It suggests that production is a benefit without cost. It suggests civilization has been built on an economy whereas it has actually been built on using natural resources, many of them irreplaceable.
946
politicians often talk about the economy as though it is a living organism that has to be nourished at any cost as it has to grow. The reality is that many economies are so gross because they have sucked the natural bounty almost dry.
949
’Anti-Capitalism in Five Minutes or Less’ http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2007/04/30/865/
Robert Jensen, CommonDreams, April 30, 2007
This article provides a sound criticism of capitalism – from an anthropogenic point of view. It notes three failings, including
‘3. Capitalism is unsustainable
This one is even easier. Capitalism is a system based on the idea of unlimited growth.’
Jensen clearly has the common misperception about sustainability. The reality is that the natural bounty is irreversibly declining. That is why civilization is unsustainable. Growth just hastens the draw down of the bounty.
408

950 The Australian Greens ‘Energy Efficiency – Saviour or Suicide?’
Letter by Michael Lardelli
This letter on the implications of Jevron’s Paradox on energy efficiency contained
<<Economic and population growth lie at the core of all environmental predicaments.
Habitat loss, increasing pollution, dwindling resources, hunger and human deprivation are all symptoms of increasing population and consumption.>>
This is nonsense. Even with a steady economy and population, the people are using irreplaceable natural resources and producing irrevocable waste. That is, the resources are dwindling and pollution increasing. Economic and population growth will just exacerbate these predicaments.
951
Heinberg’s sustainability axioms 3 and 4 identify limits to that consumption.
952
There is still the widespread belief that humans have the right to rape the ecosystem without ultimately suffering deleterious consequences when the natural bounty becomes really scarce.
953 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6922065.stm
Monday, 30 July 2007. ‘Focus on carbon 'missing the point'’ by Eamon O'Hara. This article provides a sound look at want civilization is doing with an accent on how it varies tremendously across society. ’The focus on reducing carbon emissions has blinded us to the real problem - unsustainable lifestyles, says Eamon O'Hara. In this week's
Green Room, he argues that bigger problems await us unless we shift our efforts. ‘For many decades, the symptoms of unsustainable human exploitation of the natural environment have been mounting: species extinction, the loss of biodiversity, air and water pollution, soil erosion, acid rain, destruction of rainforests, ozone depletion - the list goes on.’ It is ironical that he does not mention here the depletion of the non-renewable resources because they have been the major factor. ’The large-scale transition to renewable resources might provide a safer alternative to oil and gas and other finite resources, but it will not remove our energy and resource dependency, which will continue to expand in line with economic growth.’ ’ Ultimately, our problem is consumption, and the environment is not the only casualty.’ The reality is,
409

and always has been, the rate of consumption, which is called in this essay, the
(irreversible) rate of consumption of natural bounty. It will continue to expand with economic growth but that is not the fundamental problem. The article conveys this common misperception.
955
The common view amongst the powerful is that it is still possible to instigate procedures that will markedly reduce the possibility of catastrophic climate change. They do not realize that the fossil fuel burning has initiated an irreversible global warming.
958 A crucial one is that combusting fossil fuels to provide industrial energy also produce the carbon dioxide that is causing climate change. This is an immutable duality.
959
‘Atlanta's role in drought is scrutinized’ By Jenny Jarvie, Los Angeles Times http://tinyurl. com/2qglg8
ATLANTA - When Rick McKee, editorial cartoonist of the Augusta Chronicle newspaper, set out to capture the historic and severe drought that is afflicting the
Southeast, he did not draw parched rivers or shriveled crops or brown lawns. He drew an oafish, bloated hulk of a boy holding up a straw to slurp up water from a smaller boy's water fountain. Above the two boys were two signs: The first said "Atlanta." The second said "Everybody else."’ This competition for water is illustrative of the problems that will increasingly emerge with entropic growth.
961 What is logical about building more freeways when experience has shown this encourages more traffic in due course? Yet many councils claim it is a logical way to remove congestion and their views are accepted by the car drivers!
964
Middle East countries are leading the splurge now. The U.S. made this mistake decades ago and Britain followed suit when the North Seas fields were discovered.
965 A risky procedure given the dependence on economic growth to maintain the value of the investment.
966 Like so many others, they believed the false premise that continued economic growth was possible when the available natural capital was depreciating rapidly.
968
They conveniently forget that most ‘solutions’ have caused other problems!
969
President Bush has suggested that technologies should deal with climate change. The reality is that would require very wise choice of technologies to ease entropic growth whilst mitigating climate change.
970 http://www.sinkswatch.org/
410

SinksWatch ‘An initiative to track and scrutinize carbon sink projects’
The focus of SinksWatch is on tree plantation sinks projects, particularly in areas where land tenure and land use rights are in dispute.’ This site gives links to many indications of how the carbon sinks activities are being misused. Carbon trading follows in the footsteps of this history and turns the earth’s carbon-cycling capacity into property to be bought or sold in a global market. Through this process of creating a new commodity – carbon - the Earth’s ability and capacity to support a climate conducive to life and human societies is now passing into the same corporate hands that are destroying the climate.’ This is just one site that is spelling out how some businesses are misusing the threat of climate change to maximize their profits.
971
The influx of venture capital into the Californian innovative ‘renewable’ energy industry conveys the false impression that something practical is being done about climate change.
973
The Australian Labor Party has the policy to install a national broadband system so all
Australians can take advantage of this improvement in communications. This policy presumes (optimistically) that the basic needs of society can continue to be met even as oil shortage, climate change and water supply predicaments cast their shadows – on even those in power.
975
‘The Weathermakers: How Man is Changing the Climate and What It Means For Life
On Earth’ by Tim Flannery
976 http://www.startribune.com/722/story/1017219.html
Bangladesh feels the tidal force of global warming The bleak future predicted is a reality in the flat nation, where the rising ocean is contaminating wells and destroying homes.By
Henry Chu, Los Angeles Times February 21, 2007. BHAMIA, BANGLADESH: Global warming has a taste in this village. It is the taste of salt. Only a few years ago, water from the local pond was fresh and sweet on Samit Biswas' tongue. But drinking it now leaves a briny flavor in his mouth and white crystals sprout on his skin after he bathes.
411

977 http://www.washingt onpost.com/ wp-dyn/content/ article/2007/ 09/01/AR20070901
01360.html
’In Northern France, Warming Presses Fall Grape Harvest Into Summertime’
By Molly Moore, Washington Post Foreign Service, September 2, 2007.
ROUFFACH, France -- On a cobweb-encrusted rafter above his giant steel grape pressers, Ren Mur is charting one of the world's most tangible barometers of global warming. The evidence, scrawled in black ink, is the first day of the annual grape harvest for the past three decades. In 1978, it was Oct. 16. In 1998, the date was Sept. 14. This year, harvesting started Aug. 24 -- the earliest ever recorded, not only in Mur's vineyards, but also in the entire Alsace wine district of northeastern France.’ This article describes how the traditional French wine industry has been thrown into chaos by global warming in recent years. The vintners are more concerned with making good decisions in the face of growing uncertainty than in speculating on whom to blame. They have an industry very sensitive to climate change.
978 http://www.yubanet.com/artman/publish/article_58382.shtml
‘Report: California's Historic Global Warming Solutions Act Will Reduce Pollution,
Create Jobs and Growth’, By: NRDC, Jun 5, 2007. Just five months after California's
Global Warming Solutions Act became law, the state is off to a running start in devising the world's most ambitious global warming pollution reduction plan and firmly placing the state at the epicenter of the fast-growing clean technology market, according to a new report released today by business and conservation groups.’ This gives the appearance of a sound move backed by business. It will doubtless foster similar moves in other countries but will not, however, mitigate climate change, especially if continuing population increase fosters energy demand.
979
An article in the Business Age about climate change. The Australian Labor Party has the policy to install a national broadband system so all Australians can take advantage of this improvement in communications. This policy presumes (optimistically) that the basic
412

needs of society can continue to be met even as oil shortage, climate change and water supply predicaments cast their shadows – on even those in power.
979 ‘ The Weathermakers: How Man is Changing the Climate and What It Means For Life
On Earth’ by Tim Flannery
979 http://www.startribune.com/722/story/1017219.html
Bangladesh feels the tidal force of global warming The bleak future predicted is a reality in the flat nation, where the rising ocean is contaminating wells and destroying homes.
By Henry Chu, Los Angeles Times February 21, 2007. BHAMIA, BANGLADESH:
Global warming has a taste in this village. It is the taste of salt. Only a few years ago, water from the local pond was fresh and sweet on Samit Biswas' tongue. But drinking it now leaves a briny flavor in his mouth and white crystals sprout on his skin after he bathes.
979 http://www.yubanet.com/artman/publish/article_58382.shtml
Report: California's Historic Global Warming Solutions Act Will Reduce
Pollution, Create Jobs and Growth, By: NRDC, Published: Jun 5, 2007
Just five months after California's Global Warming Solutions Act became law, the state is off to a running start in devising the world's most ambitious global warming pollution reduction plan and firmly placing the state at the epicenter of the fast-growing clean technology market, according to a new report released today by business and conservation groups.’ This gives the appearance of a sound move backed by business. It will doubtless foster similar moves in other countries but will not, however, mitigate climate change, especially if continuing population increase fosters energy demand.
979
An article in the of 5 April 2007 by Jonathan Judsen of Energetics sums up the common misconceptions now prevailing. Amidst some comments on possible savings in energy usage and the associated greenhouse gas emissions, he said ‘there is no playback
413

button on global warming – if we get it wrong the first time, we are stuck with the consequences.’ That is very true. What was missing was recognition that we got it wrong when we became addicted to exuberant use of industrial energy a century ago. He destroyed his credibility completely by asserting that Australians should adopt the policies he espoused when it is quite clear that they can have no impact on the global climate problem. We are totally dependent on the big emitters, America, EU, China and
India cutting back. Australia is a relatively rich country so adaptation will be relatively easy. It will be much harder for the poorer countries that did not contribute to the generation of the problem.
980
There are numerous scientific programs aimed at forecasting the impact of climate change on all facets of ecosystem operations. One example is how the modification of ocean currents affects nutrient flows so fishing. IPCC report details these forecasts but many climatologists regard them as being optimistic because they do not take into account the latest information on some RFM issues.
981
Air Conditioning Heats Your World http://www.motherjo nes.com/blue_ marble_blog/ archives/ 2007/02/3596_ air_conditionin. html
Their study compared the summer temperatures in downtown Tokyo on weekends versus weekdays. It showed air conditioners dump enough heat into the streets to raise the temperature at least 1 to 2ºC [1.8 to 3.6 degrees F]. In turn, heat blasting from the rear-ends of air conditioners is contributing to the "heat island" effect that makes cities hotter and their weather sometimes more severe. This is another example of another unhelpful, unintended RFM. This article gives details for Pheonix.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0830/p01s01-wogi.html?s=hns
SustainLane ranks Phoenix as 22nd greenest cit in the country - looking at the chart, not much green - http://www.sustainlane.com/us-city-rankings/phoenix.jsp
More people, more concrete, and lots more heat in Phoenix (Navajo name -
“Hoozdo” = “the place is hot”) An 'urban heat island' effect, fed by the city's growth, is trapping heat and making temperatures soar.
414

983 ‘worthwhile’ is a comparative term as the existing operational structure and skills are producing. This production may be transformed to something more worthwhile even as it declines.
985
Provided by the fossil fuels, with dire societal, generational, health and climate consequences.
986
Selling SUVs does not help the environment – or encourage sensible transportation.
987
Although there are many who find the pressure to ‘achieve’ is too much for them. The forthcoming power down will improve their quality of life.
988
And the policy makers and media provide no sound advice. Even the education system sends them off down the wrong track!
989
Hopefully this essay will open the eyes of some.
991 February 07, 2008 edition - http://www.csmonito r.com/2008/ 0207/p17s01- stgn.html
’Has Earth entered a new epoch? What geologists think. The
Anthropocene epoch would mark the period when humans became the predominant force over the Earth's environment.’ by
Robert C. Cowen. ’Geologists wonder if they should add a new epoch to the geological time scale. They call it the
Anthropocene – the epoch when, for the first time in
Earth's history, humans have become a predominant geophysical force. Naming such a new epoch would also recognize that humans now share responsibility with natural forces for the state of our planet's ecological environment.’ This article acknowledges how technology has enabled the recent rapid modification of the ecosystem but does not recognize that this has been achieved by irreversibly using natural bounty capital. It coveys the misleading impression that this development can continue even as the capital becomes scarce whilst the temporary civilization decays.
992
The term ‘momentum’ conveys an impression that depends very much on the context.
It includes the commitment to maintain existing industrial capital as well as established but often inappropriate cultural outlook. I discuss the impact of this subjectivity later.
993
It is fascinating to speculate on what force will have the greatest impact on the change.
My money is on Gaia with our policy makers following up in the rear. Hopefully the emerging people power will help Gaia! Press Release: International League of People's
Struggle. Chapter Indonesia, December 1, 2007. People Declaration on Climate Change:
415

Uphold the People's Genuine Aspiration on Climate Change and Global Warming toward
People Sovereignty in Natural Resources! [Jakarta]People from different organization and sectors organize by International League of People Struggle Indonesia (ILPS chapter
Indonesia) participate in signing the People's Declaration on Climate Change. This declaration asserts the people's genuine aspiration and action against global warming and climate change that also becomes a concrete critique against global effort from UN
Conference on Climate Change in Bali, December 3-14, 2007. This is just one example of the rapidly emerging global trend.
994
think of the re-education that will be a necessary forerunner to effective action.
995
there are a multitude of ships and airliners that will be unable to see out their useful lives for lack of fuel and demand. What will be done about these and the vast multitude of the constructs of civilization that will also become redundant?
996
The commitment to use scarce natural bounty to maintain infrastructure that is no longer worthwhile.
997 They presume it is possible to continue to ravage the ecosystem ad infinititem.
998
I am being a ‘realist’ even though many will say I am a ‘doomsayer’! Frankly, we are going to get our just deserts.
1000
‘Rapid acceleration in human evolution described’ By Will Dunham
WASHINGTON, Dec 10 (Reuters) – ‘Human evolution has been moving at breakneck speed in the past several thousand years, far from plodding along as some scientists had thought, researchers said on Monday.’ This article describes some recent findings with respect to the rapid evolution of human characteristics since the agriculture revolution began. It essentially spells out that humans have adapted to some degree to the way they have changed the environment. There is no mention of how these developments have markedly reduced the capability of the environment to support the operation of society.
That is, as is normal, this work looks at only one side of the coin!
1001 The intangible decision-making process
1002
’Fast Cars/Fast Foods: Hyperconsumption and its Health and Environmental
Consequences’ by Peter Freund and George Martin, Sociology Department, Montclair
State University, Montclair, New Jersey 07043 US. George Martin acknowledges support from the Centre for Environmental Strategy of the University of Surrey, Guildford; the
Department of Sociology and the Center for Political Ecology of the University of
416

California, Santa Cruz. This well-researched article examines the consequences of the fast cars/fast foods revolution, including its impact on society and the ecology. It gives the impression that this phenomenon is out of control. However, there is no recognition of the ecological limits. There is no discussion of how carmania will cope with the scarcity of fuel. There is no discussion of what will happen to the fast food industry upon the demise of carmania. It is ironical that the impact of the ecological forces is likely to ease these societal malfeasances.
1003 Climate change currently heads the hit list but peak oil, peak food and peak water are not far behind!
1004
It really has a malignant influence on the operation of society
1005 the developing credit crisis virus is spreading rapidly and clouding that delusion.
1006 This is becoming very doubtful as the current credit bubble shows signs of imploding. This pain in the Tumor will doubtless divert attention from what is happening to the Body – for a while.
1008 there are many knowlegable people that believe reflexivity plays a bigger role in setting prices and this tends to generate confusion.
There is appreciable speculation about current commodity prices as a consequence.
1009 crustal stocks of the fossil fuels will not be replenished by natural forces at sufficient rate to negate this assertion.
1010 Held by very few, apart from readers of this essay, as yet but bound to increase rapidly as ecological forces tend to gain the upper hand in the tug-o-war.
1011 Solar thermal systems could well provide a more worthwhile source of some electricity for a while. This would entail using a mix of natural capital and income rather than drawing down on capital alone as with a coal-fired power station.
1014 There are many cities that may have this problem.
1015 Most cities are still blindly growing!
1017
Many of them, like oil and copper, hidden underground. “Limits to Growth: The 30
Year Update” details some of these limitations.
1018
Mount Everest, the Grand Canyon, whales, people, microbes, eyes, DNA, rain, sunshine all play their part in the operation of Gaia.
1019
Like most arable land, rivers and lakes, at the expense of disrupting biodiversity and geodiversity in a largely unforeseen manner. There are also the exhaustible ones that we are depleting as quickly as possible!
1020 We have done a remarkably effective job in despoiling Australia’s only major river system, the Murray-Darling. There has been a lot of talk between the Federal and State governments about what should be done to restore the health of the system while meeting irrigation demands. This dilemma is probably typical that many authorities globally will have to face. The damage has been done so remedial action is urgently required but there are conflicting requirements in using natural bounty.
417

1021 There are only some mountains and rivers we have managed to modify, at our everlasting expense. We have tried with little success to seed rain clouds. We are more successful in polluting air!
1022
Darwin provided some insight but most of evolution is still a mystery, even to the specialists.
1023
Isn’t the eye a marvelous device?
1024
1025
Measured by an abstraction, money, to which we are now addicted.
1026
They are the ‘who’ behind our predicaments but the majority goes along with the delusion that Homo sapiens know what they are doing!
1027
Isn’t it ironical how people will beaver away at their jobs in the cities so they can earn enough to go and enjoy some of the remaining wilderness by contributing to climate change with the exhaust from their cars or the airliners!
1028 http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=6885
‘Philosophy of climate change inaction’By Kellie Tranter,21 January
2008.’We will look for leaders who "pretend to act" so that we get moral satisfaction of saying what we know to be right, without the discomfort of doing it. George Monbiot. ’Unfortunately, we seem to behave like pathogenic micro-organisms or tumour cells: as our basic living conditions are satisfied we multiply and we develop further expectations and needs; once they are satisfied the larger population develops even greater wants, and the process continues to increase exponentially until the combination of increased population with increased expectations exhausts or overwhelms the resources available and kills the host.’
Unfortunately, Monbiot, like so many others does not recognize that the every day operation of civilization draws down on the limited natural bounty capital. It is this act of depleting the capital that is not sustainable. Increased population and expectations just brings the exhaustion on more quickly.
1029 Especially as some of them like oil, fertile soil and potable water will have increasing impact as they become very scarce.
1030
We have built up a Body for civilization which is aging and which is not sustainable.
1031
One of the main objectives of this essay is to illustrate this point. We have installed synthetic systems that entail a significant irrepayable eco cost during their lives. Some have also done irrepairable damage to the ecosystem.
1032
There are many studies in recent centuries that have described how civilizations have grown by disrupting the ecosystem but these lessons have not been learnt for some
418

inexplicable reason. This question of why is not examined here. It is simply that this is what has happened. ‘Environmental Disasters in the Cradles of Civilization’ http://www.crf-usa.org/bria/bria18_4a.htm
provides insight into what happened in the pre-industrialization eras.
1033
It will be interesting to see what priority is given to maintaining the glories of our cities using the rapidly declining natural resources! There seems to be seeds for conflict in this predicament.
1034
There is an extremely large population that needs sustenance and shelter at the very least. There are many communities, particularly in Africa, Asia and South America that are struggling. On the other hand, there are many ‘rich’ communities that have much more demanding ‘needs’.
1036
Where civilization has not unwisely disrupted them.
1037 Learning and Developmental Disabilities Initiative (LDDI)
Publishes Scientific Consensus Statement on Environmental Factors
February 20, 2008, Seattle, WA. The Collaborative on Health and the environment’s Learning and Developmental Disabilities Initiative published today the Scientific Consensus Statement on Environmental
Agents Associated with Neurodevelopmental Disorders (available at http://www.iceh. org/LDDI. html ). This statement, signed by more than
50 scientists and health professionals nationally and internationally, summarizes the latest science about environmental contaminants associated with neuro developmental disorders, such as learning disabilities, autism spectrum disorder, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), intellectual disabilities and developmental delays.
1039 the growing trend to produce agrofuels is having an impact on food production where it causes the greatest amount of malnutrition .
1040 rapid economic growth in South Africa is causing serious power shortages
1041
Rabbits, cane toads and fire ants are invited foreigners that are doing untold harm to the very brittle Australian ecosystem balance.
1043
And postulated here as the Dependence on Nature Law as it is self-evident when you look at what really happens in the substantive operations of society.
1044
This may become widely recognized in the near future or it may take decades. But it will occur because it is an incontrovertible reality.
1045 It entails detailed examination of what actually happens in everyday operations in industrialized civilization. The supporting science is also described.
419

1047 It varies appreciably from country to country. It has been accentuated by capitalism while socialism has aimed at a degree of moderation.
1052
It is a simplistic model with many assumptions. This makes it susceptible to criticism by skeptics. Yet it is basically sound though of little value in short term predicting because of the uncertainties. Peak oil extraction will only be reasonably known some years after the event.
1053 http://www.rigzone. com/news/ article.asp? a_id=49533
’In Caspian, Big Oil Fights Ice, Fumes, Kazakhs’ by Guy Chazan Dow Jones Newswires
KASHAGAN, Kazakhstan Aug 28, 2007 (From the Wall Street Journal via Dow Jones
Newswires)
’On an island in the Caspian Sea, the hub of the world's largest oil-development project, a thousand men in orange jumpsuits train for catastrophe. Oil in the Kashagan field here is potentially lethal, with high concentrations of hydrogen sulfide gas. So workers carry oxygen canisters and gas detectors and do daily evacuation drills. High-tech getaway boats stand ready to whisk them to safety. The place feels more like a hazardouschemical plant than an oil rig.’ This article details the environmental, technical and political problems frustrating the development of the Kashagan field, discovered in 2000 in Kazakhstan's sector of the Caspian, was the world's largest oil find in 30 years. In
2019, production there is expected to plateau at 1.5 million barrels of crude a day, more than the output of established producers Angola or Qatar. Kazakhstan’s government is eager to realize the financial benefits from this natural resource bounty. The developing organization, a consortium of Western oil companies, wants to maximize the profits from using their expertise. Neither gives a hoot for what this irreplaceable natural resource is used for, such as temporarily powering SUVs in America. It is a big project for those concerned but it will at best add less than 2% temporarily to the rate at which oil is consumed, so depleted.
1054 by
THE
A.M
CENTURY http://www.sfu. ca/~asamsamb/ sb.htm
Samsam
OF ROOTS
Bakhtiari
420

This essay is a very sound comment on the likely impact of the declining availability of oil on the operation of civilization and how people are likely to respond to the Material and Psychological Shocks. It does not, however, recognize that Peak Oil is a symptom of the holistic malaise that civilization has inflicted on Gaia. It is quite likely that Peak Oil will actually serve as a wake up call and lead to society facing reality. It is quite unbelievable that Bakhtiari deems Peak Oil as being the prime symptom. Many astute observers rate climate change more highly!
1055 http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/3086
‘PEAK MINERALS’by Ugo Bardi and Marco Pagani, ASPO-Italy
*Abstract:* We examined the world production of 57 minerals reported in the database of the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Of these, we found 11 cases where production has clearly peaked and is now declining. Several more may be peaking or be close to peaking. Fitting the production curve with a logistic function we see that, in most cases, the ultimate amount extrapolated from the fitting corresponds well to the amount obtained summing the cumulative production so far and the reserves estimated by the USGS. These results are a clear indication that the Hubbert model is valid for the worldwide production of minerals and not just for regional cases. It strongly supports the concept that “Peak oil” is just one of several cases of worldwide peaking and decline of a depletable resource. Many more mineral resources may peak worldwide and start their decline in the near future.’ The rapid price rise of many minerals in recent years may be largely due to increasing demand, particularly from China.
1056
Published on 13 Aug 2007 by Energy Bulletin.‘Peak phosphorus’ by Patrick Déry and Bart Anderson
Peak oil has made us aware that many of the resources on which civilization depends are limited. M. King Hubbert, a geophysicist for Shell Oil, found that oil production over time followed a curve that was roughly bell-shaped. He correctly predicted that oil production in the lower 48 states would peak in 1970.’ This article deals with a similar problem in relation to phosphoros. There are quite a few others in a similar state yet the community at large are unaware of the likely consequnces.
421

1060
there are a few exceptions like the Pyramids.
1061
There is no suitable analogy for this process because society could eventually power down to the stage where it can operate on the natural bounty income. That would necessitate a very small population with very few goods because of the scarcity of raw materials and the limitations on processing them.
1064
Economists say that market forces based on supply and demand ensure efficient operations. That prejudiced outlook can continue only until there is a scarcity of supply.
It is an irrational means of ensuring a depleted legacy.
1066
Those involved in mining, manufacturing or building are the most dependent on using industrial energy but all businesses use some.
1067 Moves to reduce the use of coal because of GHG emissions could have a significant impact on iron and aluminum production even as the demand for these materials is growing rapidly.
1069
"Climate change is the greatest market failure the world has ever seen." - Sir Nicholas Stern, former World Bank chief economist
1070
Party for Socialism and Liberation http://www.pslweb.org/
By: Matt Murray
Crimes of capitalism series
This article describes how the powerful have used their leverage of money and globalization to enhance their profits at the expense of the workers on a global basis. It does not mention the eco cost entailed in this unsustainable process. The powerful probably think they will be immune to any power down that may be forced by the decline in natural bounty.
1071
The current ethanol frenzy in the U.S. is an example.
1074
We are very dependent on our energy slaves for providing basic goods and services so we can get on with activities that are not really worthwhile!
422

1075 It is almost unbelievable that business, attuned to looking ahead for good investments, generally does not take into account that the supply of fossil fuels is running out. That is, this natural capital is declining rapidly.
1076
But businesses are so enraptured in the supply and demand paradigm that they belief the furphy that throwing money at technology will always provide a substitute to remedy scarcity.
1077
There are many advocates of various forms of ‘renewable energy’ that claim they will be viable alternatives to the fossil fuels. Critical analysis by knowledgeable scientists and engineers strongly suggests that these claims are very optimistic.
1078
Published on Tuesday, December 11, 2007 by Grist Magazine
‘Beyond the Point of No Return. It’s too late to stop climate change — so what do we do now?’ by Ross Gelbspan. This article is a realistic comment on how civilization has so decimated its life support system, the environment, that the future looks exceedingly grim, even though society in general is still in denial. It provides links to many authoritative comments on what has happened. It recognizes that we cannot solve the climate change problem. It does not, however, recognize the fundamental fact of the
Dependence on Natural Law. It does not recognize that there has been a build up of civilization by so devastating the ecosystem that there is insufficient to cope with the inevitable powering down.
1079 http://carolynbaker.org/archives/happy-independence-dayyou-have-no-governmentby-carolyn-baker
‘HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY; YOU HAVE NO GOVERNMENT’, By Carolyn
Baker, July 02, 2007. This is a perceptive view of the collapsing American society under the aegis of capitalism. Western civilization is following America down this trail. There is, however, no reference to the fundamental cause of this collapse, America has already used up more than of its fair share of the irreplaceable global natural bounty. It has now to tackle the resultant predicaments with what is left of this bounty. This will entail an irresistible power down.
1080
fertile soil, arable land, aquifer water and hundreds of ores, like copper.
423

1081 And the consequences are starting to hit hard in some regions.
1082
It is slowly surfacing now as the scarcity of many materials is starting to have an impact on business. This awareness, as ever, will slowly seep out to the wider community with the policy makers responding when necessary!
1084
In conjunction with the associated matter. Electricity would be lost without transmission lines.
1085
The U.S. has been the outstanding example
1086
Know how aided and abetted by money has enabled the exuberant use of the rich natural resources. A RFM has enabled this leverage to build up.
1087
they are addicted to using depleting sources of industrial energy
1088
American industry is finding it hard to come to terms with this reality. Australia has a similar quandary.
1091 http://www.truthout.org/issues_06/081407EC.shtml
‘Water Levels in Three Great Lakes Dip Far Below Normal’By Felicity Barringer, The
New York Times,14 August 2007. ‘Water levels in the three upper Great Lakes are wavering far below normal, and experts expect Lake Superior, the northernmost lake, to reach a record low in the next two months, according to data from the international bodies that monitor the Great Lakes, the world's largest freshwater reservoir.’ This article highlights an emerging problem and speculates on the causative factors, including climate change. It seems quite likely that it is an element of regional entropic growth that will require appreciable amount of the remaining natural bounty for a degree of mitigation.
The drop in water level could well represent an irreversible reduction in the natural capital of the region.
1092 The influence of continuing population increase is not their responsibility!
1093
They are very loathe to admit that it was their ignorant rampage with industrialization that was the main causative factor.
1094
Mainly rural ones in undeveloped and developing countries.
‘Capacity Enhancement
Programme on Make a Difference in Sustainable Agricultural Development (MAD in
SAD), Organised by Responsenet, New Delhi, 14th July to 15th July 2007.
424

Context: India is today one of the six fastest growing economies of the world. The business and regulatory environment is evolving and moving towards constant improvement. A highly talented, skilled and English-speaking human resource base forms its backbone. The Indian economy has transformed into a vibrant, rapidly growing consumer market, comprising over 300 million strong middle class with increasing purchasing power. India provides a large market for consumer goods on the one hand and imports capital goods and technology to modernize its manufacturing base on the other.
With these development indices soaring up, India is falling apart and the graph seems to fall when it comes to food security, nutrition, bio-energy, environment and livelihood for rural India. Food security is determined by food availability, food access and is interlinked with livelihood. To meet the UN Millennium Development Goal of reducing the number of hungry people to half by 2015, there is a need to bridge the huge gap between attainable yield and average yields harvested by the farmers especially in developing countries under fragile environments.’ This is a program aimed at mitigating the horrendous problems afflicting hundreds of millions in rural India.
1095 http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,489508,00.html
June 19, 2007. ‘CLIMATE CHANGE SHIFTING SEASONS. Birds and Bees
Prematurely Active in Greenland. Not only are global temperatures on the rise, but climate change is shifting the seasons too. Researchers in Greenland have found that the birds and the bees in the Arctic are active a full two weeks earlier than they were just a decade ago.
1096 ‘Ironically, the very process of burning fossil fuels releases massive amounts of carbon dioxide, or CO2, and forces an increase in the Earth's temperature, which in turn melts the Arctic ice, making available even more oil and gas for energy. Burning these potential oil and gas finds would further increase CO2 emissions in coming decades, depleting the
Arctic ice even more quickly.’ This is an RFM we could control if we had the sense.
‘Katey Walter of the Institute of Arctic Biology at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks wrote in the journal Nature last year, and in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal
425

Society in May, that the melting of the permafrost and subsequent release of methane is a
"ticking time bomb."’ That time bomb is already ticking!
1097
Even though they did not contribute to it.
1098
Climate Change Impact Report. AfricaFocus (Washington, DC) http://allafrica. com/stories/ 200712030223. html?viewall= 1
ANALYSIS, 2 December 2007, Washington, DC. "Climate disasters are heavily concentrated in poor countries. Some
262 million people were affected by climate disasters annually from 2000 to 2004, over
98 percent of them in the developing world. ... In [rich] countries one in 1,500 people was affected by climate disaster. The comparable figure for developing countries was one in
19." - UNDP Human Development Report.
1099 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/19/opinion/19tue4.html
Editorial Observer. Millions of Missing Birds, Vanishing in Plain Sight
By VERLYN KLINKENBORG
Last week, the Audubon Society released a new report describing the sharp and startling population decline of some of the most familiar and common birds in America: several kinds of sparrows, the Northern bobwhite, the Eastern meadowlark, the common grackle and the common tern. The average decline of the 20 species in the Audubon Society’s report is 68 percent. This is the premise of sustainability. But the very foundation of our economic interests is self-interest, and in the survival of other species we see way too little self to care. The trouble with humans is that even the smallest changes in our behavior require an epiphany. And yet compared to the fixity of other species, the narrowness of their habitats, the strictness of their diets, the precision of the niches they occupy, we are flexibility itself.
We look around us, expecting the rest of the world’s occupants to adapt to the changes that we have caused, when, in fact, we have the right to expect adaptation only from ourselves.
426

1102 ‘Globalization Is Fueling Global Warming’ By Les Leopold, AlterNet, January 12,
2008 http://www.alternet.org/story/71873/
As global warming negotiations move from Bali towards a worldwide treaty, it is important to address how global warming and global trade work hand-in-hand. Globalization is to global warming what warm water in the Gulf of
Mexico waters was to Hurricane Katrina.
1103
‘Globalization And Democracy: Some Basics’ by Michael Parenti, May 27,
2007,Counter Currents. This article provides appreciable detail on what transnational corporations are doing in their chase after the almighty dollar, regardless of the consequences for the rest of humanity and its life support system. Doubtless, their principals think they are immune. Do they also think they are immortal?
1104
Know how is inevitably obtained at the unaccounted expense of prior eco cost, only some of which would have been income.
1106
So instigating climate change
1107
to feed and house humans at the expense of other bio-systems.
1108
Of the infrastructure, like Washington DC.
1109
for damage done to geodiversity, like the Nile.
1110
To replace existing coal-fired power stations because of their GHG emissions.
1111 To cope with, for example, increased droughts in south east Australia. Or what is looming in Alaska. From the NY Times, 28 June 2007.’Study Sees Climate Change
Impact on Alaska’ By WILLIAM YARDLEY. ’Many of Alaska's roads, runways, railroads and water and sewer systems will wear out more quickly and cost more to repair or replace because of climate change, according to a study released yesterday. Higher temperatures, melting permafrost, a reduction in polar ice and increased flooding are expected to raise the repair and replacement cost of thousands of infrastructure projects as much as $6.1 billion for a total of nearly $40 billion — about a 20 percent increase — from now to 2030, according to the study, by the Institute for Social and Economic
Research at the University of Alaska Anchorage.
1112
The demands will be increasing as the supplies decline! How will we manage the necessary power down?
427

1113 It will continue to contribute to entropic growth – whilst it can.
1114 They have the pious hope that more people will ensure wiser use of the natural resources.
1116
‘ANIMAL EXTINCTION - THE GREATEST THREAT TO MANKIND. BY THE
END OF THE CENTURY HALF OF ALL SPECIES WILL BE EXTINCT. DOES
THAT MATTER?’ By Julia Whitty, The Independent, April 30, 2007
< http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article2494659.ece
> http://news.independent
.co.uk/environment/article2494659.ece
This provides a wide-ranging view of what human activities have done to biodiversity.
This thorough scientific investigation has not received the publicity of climate change provided by IPCC yet its impact on the ecosystem could well be as profound. There are moves afoot to remedy some of the damage that has been done.’ To save Earth's living membrane, we must put its shattered pieces back together. Only "megapreserves" modelled on a deep scientific understanding of continent-wide ecosystem needs hold that promise.’ ‘The Wildlands Project, the conservation group spearheading the drive to rewild North America -- by reconnecting remaining wildernesses (parks, refuges, national forests, and local land trust holdings) through corridors-- calls for reconnecting wild
North America in four broad "megalinkages": along the Rocky Mountain spine of the continent from Alaska to Mexico; across the arctic/boreal from Alaska to Labrador; along the Atlantic via the Appalachians; and along the Pacific via the Sierra Nevada into the
Baja peninsula. Within each megalinkage, core protected areas would be connected by mosaics of public and private lands providing safe passage for wildlife to travel freely.
Broad, vegetated overpasses would link wilderness areas split by roads. Private landowners would be enticed to either donate land or adopt policies of good stewardship along critical pathways.’
925 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/sep/12/internationalnews.greenpolitics
Guardian Unlimited. ‘Threatened species Red List shows escalating 'global extinction crisis' by Alison Benjamin, Guardian Unlimited, September 12 2007. ‘Corals and seaweed have joined the ranks of threatened species, and more apes and reptiles are now
428

facing extinction according to the World Conservation Union, which warns of a "global extinction crisis".’ This article provides insight into the damage that human activities have done to biodiversity. It is ironical that this has not received the publicity of global warming, probably because business cannot see opportunities in remedial action.
1118 ‘Pesticides reduce symbiotic efficiency of nitrogen-fixing rhizobia and host plants’
Jennifer E. Fox, Jay Gulledge , Erika Engelhaupt Matthew E. Burow, and John A.
McLachlan,
Center for Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Oregon, Eugene
Center for Bioenvironmental Research, Environmental Endocrinology Laboratory, New
Orleans.
Department of Biology, University of Louisville, Louisville,
University of Colorado, Boulder
Department of Medicine and Surgery, Hematology and Medical Oncology Section,
Tulane
University Medical School. New Orleans.
Edited by Christopher B. Field, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, CA, and approved May 8, 2007. The last 20 years have seen diminishing returns in crop yield in response to increased application of fertilizers, which cannot be completely explained by current ecological models. A common strategy to reduce dependence on nitrogenous fertilizers is the production of leguminous crops, which fix atmospheric nitrogen via symbiosis with nitrogen-fixing rhizobia bacteria, in rotation with nonleguminous crops.
Here we show previously undescribed in vivo evidence that a subset of organochlorine pesticides, agrichemicals, and environmental contaminants induces a symbiotic phenotype of inhibited or delayed recruitment of rhizobia bacteria to host plant roots, fewer root nodules produced, lower rates of nitrogenase activity, and a reduction in overall plant yield at time of harvest. The environmental consequences of synthetic chemicals compromising symbiotic nitrogen fixation are increased dependence on synthetic nitrogenous fertilizer, reduced soil fertility, and unsustainable long-term crop yields.’ This research describes the progressive damaging impact of chemical pesticides
429

on natural fertilization in crops. It is another example of synthetic processes having unintended consequences.
1119
Earth Policy Institute. Plan B 2.0 Book Byte. June 27, 2007
‘LOSING SOIL’ http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/Seg/PB2ch05_ss3.htm
Lester R. Brown. Brown summarizes the global soil depletion problem stemming from unsustainable agriculture practices. The consequential temporary boost in grain production comes at a horrendous long-term loss. Soil depletion is another major element in the draw down of natural bounty capital.
1120
Caution: Some soft drinks may seriously harm your health. Expert links additive to cell damage
By Martin Hickman, Consumer Affairs Correspondent, The Independent. Published: 27
May http://news. independent. co.uk/health/ article2586652. ece
2007
This article is about the possibility that the additive sodium benzoate may harm DNA so lead to serious problems in those who drink a lot of the well-known soft drinks. It does not, of itself, give rise to a serious concern. But numerous serious concerns have surfaced in recent years. In aggregate, they indicate a very serious impact of chemical additives on human health.
1122 http://www.washingt onpost.com/ wp-dyn/content/ article/2007/ 06/17/AR20070617
00945.html
Coal-to-Liquid Boondoggle A risky solution to America's energy woes. June 18, 2007
COAL-TO-LIQUID fuel is being touted in the Senate energy debate as a key to overcoming America's dependence on foreign fuel. The argument is understandable, considering that the United States sits atop the largest coal reserves in the world, by one estimate a 200- to 450-year supply. But unanswered questions and environmental
430

concerns raise the prospect that the price for this brand of energy independence may be too high. To turn coal into liquid fuel it must be fired up to 1,000 degrees and mixed with water. Then the gas that's created is transformed into fuel that can be used in cars and jets. Unfortunately, creating CTL, as it is known, is a very intensive process requiring coal, water and cash. To wean the United States off of just 1 million barrels of the 21 million barrels of crude oil consumed daily, an estimated 120 million tons of coal would need to be mined each year. The process requires vast amounts of water, particularly a concern in the parched West. And the price of a plant is estimated at $4 billion.’ This is an example of a controversial means of helping to meet transportation fuel demands as oil depletion strikes. It is an example of the emergence of problems as the entropy grows. A wiser assessment is required if it is not to be a waste of the declining natural bounty. It may be worthwhile for mitigation purposes.
1123
Transforming chemical energy in coal to electricity is similar in principle to transforming the kinetic energy in winds to electricity. They just require the installation of different systems at roughly comparable eco costs. The functioning, however, is entirely different.
1124 The appreciable time that elapses between sound recognition of a need and the subsequent amelioration action generally reduces its beneficial impact. The current slow response to global warming is typical of the inertia in society.
1125
And can well be inhibited by extraneous economic, political, environmental and social factors. http://www.corporat eeurope.org/ agrofuelfolly. html
’The EU's agrofuel folly: policy capture by corporate interests.
Briefing paper, Corporate Europe Observatory (CEO), June 2007.
Despite growing public concern about the risks associated to agrofuels[1] , the European Union (EU) is throwing its weight behind the promotion of these often very harmful crops. In March 2007, a proposal set targets to increase the use of agrofuels in all road transport fuel to 10 percent by 2020. The
Commission is also planning to channel large amounts of EU public funds towards the research & development of agrofuel projects.’ This article details how
431

corporate interests have taken over agrofuel projects with unintended consequences, particularly in the undeveloped countries.
1127
E.g. coal liquefaction, biofuels, ethanol,
1128
LONDON -(Dow Jones)- A proposal to replace fuel oil with distillate fuel in the global shipping industry could force refiners to invest $100 billion to $150 billion, with the possibility of "further substantial investment," the International Energy Agency said.
The International Maritime Organization's Marine Environment Protection Committee has proposed the switch for environmental and competitive reasons which, if approved, would be implemented globally as early as 2012.’ It seems that the industry sees no emerging problem with oil supply. It would seem incomprehensible that there is not more concern about future fuel supplies for ships, especially as shipping orders are increasing rapidly. Yet this attitude is common amongst business dependent on industrial energy security.
1129
replacement of the specialized fuel for aircraft gas turbine engines will be a very daunting task. JP900, derived from coal, could well fit the bill in due course but the transition would put a heavy load on the natural bounty that may be worthwhile only in some circumstances and it would only be a transitory substitution as coal is also an exhaustible resource.
1130
China shows signs of leading the oil consumers’ field. Russia is vying with Saudi
Arabia in the producers’ field.
1131
The withdrawal from this addiction to effortless mobility of self and goods will not be easy.
1133
Some response to climate change is getting up to speed but there is little realistic action to discourage population growth, tackle the water and food supply predicaments and reduce industrial energy consumption.
1134 For example, the 3% decrease in U.S. GDP resulting from the 1973 Arab oil embargo resulted in a damaging economic recession. A 1% change in current world oil production equates to over 800,000 barrels per day (bpd), which represents a huge volume. To save that level of consumption through increases in the efficiency of the world’s light duty
432

vehicle fleet (automobiles and light trucks) would require more than a decade, assuming crash program implementation. 2 On the supply side, the production of 800,000 bpd of substitute liquid fuels would require coal-to-liquids (CTL) plants costing $50 - 100 billion and require more than a decade under the best of conditions, for example. Thus, small percentages of world oil production and demand represent large economic impacts and very large levels of mitigation hardware and investment. And they also demand foresight that the markets cannot provide.
1135
A new use for Deserts, extract below is from http://www.i-sis.org.uk/GAFCCAB.php
best regards, Ferrand. ’Isaac Berzin, a rocket scientist at Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, is using algae to clean up power-plant exhaust, saving greenhouse gas emissions and satisfying energy needs.’ This extract provides some detail on methods to use algae to capture GHG and provide biofuel. They may well provide worthwhile but small remediation measures in appropriate circumstances.
1136 http://www.washingt onpost.com/ wp-dyn/content/ article/2007/ 09/01/AR20070901
01360.html
’In Northern France, Warming Presses Fall Grape Harvest Into Summertime’ By Molly
Moore
Washington Post Foreign Service, September 2, 2007.ROUFFACH, France -- On a cobweb-encrusted rafter above his giant steel grape pressers, Ren Mur is charting one of the world's most tangible barometers of global warming. The evidence, scrawled in black ink, is the first day of the annual grape harvest for the past three decades. In 1978, it was
Oct. 16. In 1998, the date was Sept. 14. This year, harvesting started Aug. 24 -- the earliest ever recorded, not only in Mur's vineyards, but also in the entire Alsace wine district of northeastern France.’ This article describes how the traditional French wine industry has been thrown into chaos by global warming in recent years. The vintners are more concerned with making worthwhile decisions in the face of growing uncertainty than in speculating on whom or what to blame. They have an industry very sensitive to climate change. It is like ‘a canary in the mine’.
433

1137 http://www.enn.com/today.html?id=12680
For Asian Countries, Targeting Rice Paddies Could Help Reduce Greenhouse Gas
Emissions. May 01, 2007 — By Michael Casey, Associated Press. This article deals with the possibility of reducing methane emissions by changing rice growing methods. It is one of a number of mitigation measures that could be worthwhile in due course, if the eco cost was realistically assessed.
1138 It is a natural resource that society should not be wasting by procrastinating.
1139
‘Atlanta's role in drought is scrutinized’ By Jenny Jarvie, Los Angeles Times http://tinyurl.com/2qglg8
ATLANTA - When Rick McKee, editorial cartoonist of the Augusta Chronicle newspaper, set out to capture the historic and severe drought that is afflicting the
Southeast, he did not draw parched rivers or shriveled crops or brown lawns. He drew an oafish, bloated hulk of a boy holding up a straw to slurp up water from a smaller boy's water fountain. Above the two boys were two signs: The first said "Atlanta." The second said "Everybody else."’ This competition for water is illustrative of the problems that will increasingly emerge with entropic growth.
1140 http://www.washingt onpost.com/ wp-dyn/content/ article/2007/ 08/31/AR20070831
02052.html
’U.N. Climate Talks End in Cloud of Discord. Industrialized, Developing Nations Still at
Odds Over How and When to Cut Emissions.’ By John Ward Anderson, Washington
Post Foreign Service
September 1, 2007. PARIS -- A five-day U.N. conference on climate change ended in
Vienna on Friday with significant disagreements remaining about how countries should reduce greenhouse gas emissions and daunting estimates about the price tag for combating global warming.’ This is the typical attitude in talks like this that are based on the economic growth paradigm. They lose sight of the fact that the actual impact of climate change could be so destructive of the material basis to the ecosystem and the
434

foundations of civilization that will derail the economy much more than they foresee.
They would be wise to invoke the precautionary principle and act now.
1142
These are real geobiophysical assets, not the memes of the bean counters.
1143
Many, like the fossil fuels and ores do not replenish.
1144
Note that population growth has had a major impact on this draw down. It is a contributing factor but this does not affect the principle, the natural bounty has been drawn down by the day-by-day operations of civilization.
1145
Harnessing insolation and making better use of water and fertile soil will be, at best, soothers.
1147
Even though it is a virus
1148
There are signs that smart people, particularly in European cities, no longer view the status symbol as being worth the cost and the driving and parking hassles.
1149
The desire to see the world at a fast pace will not remain the ‘in thing’ due to the rapidly increasing inconveniences.
1150
The fast food corporations and the pharmaceuticals seem to be in cohorts. The latter claim they can fix the problems caused by the former.
1151 With air conditioning and heating helping significantly to speed up ecocide!
1152 Including watching virtual reality shows on TV rather than face up to the real reality of ecological devastation.
1153 http://www.harpers.org/archive/2007/10/0081742
‘Toxic inaction: Why poisonous, unregulated chemicals end up in our blood’ BY Mark
Schapiro, October 2007, VIEW. This American article provides details of the investigations that have been carried out, primarily in the EU, to gain some appreciation of the impact of toxic chemicals on human well being. This use of chemicals in products is one element of the devastation of the ecosystem for the sake of the sale of stuff to gullible consumers. It is, however, closer to the bone than (other) species extinctions.
1154 The thinking well off may accept that a power down will have to occur some time in the future but they can afford to procrastinate for now. Many Jews in Germany adopted that view in the face of the emergence of Nazism in the 1930s.
1156
‘Global Warming Health Effects’
435

http://www.truthout.org/issues_06/041807EC.shtml
Higher temperatures over the coming decades are expected to cause more smoggy days and heat waves, contributing to a greater number of illnesses and deaths in the United
States, according to international climate scientists.
1157
The measures adopted to reduce the size of the hole are now being found to be less effective than was originally promulgated. http://www.truthout.org/issues_06/091707EB.shtml
‘Unfinished Business of Ozone Protection’ by Joe Farman, BBC News,17 September
2007. ‘There is a popular belief that the ozone layer has been "saved". Not so, says Joe
Farman, one of the scientists who discovered the Antarctic ozone "hole" - even as the
Montreal Protocol celebrates its 20th birthday, much remains to be done.’ This article explains the current situation with respect to the ozone hole and the contribution of business to the misleading view that the problem has been solved.
1158
With plastics and other petrochemicals to blame in many cases.
1159
‘Attack on Iran would result in India feeling nuked’ by Moret. Article by Dhananjay
Khadilkar, February 15, 2007, MUMBAI: ‘Attack on Iran would be nothing short of a low level nuclear war against India. That's the opinion of Leuren Moret, a former scientist at the Livermore nuclear laboratory, who was here for a conference. Moret stated that the population staying in this region would become vulnerable to diseases like cancer and diabetes. Terming the suspended Uranium particles as DNA time bomb, she said that because of the affinity of a phosphate in human DNA towards uranium, these particles destroy the DNA. Thus the disastrous effects of depleted Uranium won't be limited to one generation only.’
1160
This is an attempt to counter the opposite principle adopted by business. They believe that their ability to be competitive and profitable should not be hindered by regulation until their production is proven to be damaging to the health of society and the environment. They regard the health of their hip pocket as being more important!
436

1161 Because these damaging processes are irreversible, the best we can do in the future is to reduce their impact, at an irrevocable eco cost.
1162 http://www.unknownc ountry.com/ news/?id= 5981
‘Bee Emergency Stranger Than We Thought’, 22-Feb-2007
We're in the middle of a bee emergency. Albert Einstein said, "If the bee disappeared off the surface of the globe, then man would only have four years left to live." A mysterious ailment called Colony Collapse Disorder is causing agricultural honeybees nationwide to abandon their hives and disappear. It's a kind of mass suicide in the bee world. This is one example of a very worrying trend. I expect that there are numerous experts gathering together the evidence in a variety of fields. There seems to be appreciable evidence of the harm done by invasive species. And human are the most invasive species! These disruptive measures often result in natural order being reduced to disorder. That is they make a contribution to global entropic growth.
1163
Because there is little profit to be made in these remedial activities.
1164 Advances in audio and visual communications have opened up the world to many, but there are still billions who are denied sufficient of the basics, like food, water and sanitation.
1166 our energy slaves
1167
so not contributing to the Brain.
1168
We have been fueled into laziness by having energy slaves!
1170 Clearly there is some flexibility and they have a small degree of control over the relationship.
1171
This seems to be related to Lotka’s Principle.
1172
Sporting activities are very popular means of using up energy.
1173
But to the disadvantage of Gaia.
1174 These are both the tangible like machinery and the intangible like skills and money. It is the money that largely determines what processes are activated – often without regard to consequences.
1175
And irreversibly and invisibly draw down natural bounty capital
437

1176 fiat money can grow in an unregulated manner while the available industrial energy is irrevocably declining.
1177
Formalized below as the Freedom Axiom.
1178
it is unsustainable because the sources of the concentrated energy are exhaustible and the alternatives are weak.
1180
some of this draw down of natural capital has been used to build up the transient infrastructure of civilization but too much has been used for the production of throwaway goods and saving us from exercise!
1181
This logically is the primary natural resource. But business can make much more money out of oil, iron ore etc, so fertile soil does not appear high on the agenda except where people go hungry for lack of it. It will move up the agenda as its impact trickles up.
1182 http://www.enn.com/today.html?id=12566 Warming Could Spark North American
Water Scramble, UN Warns. April 12, 2007. By Timothy Gardner, Reuters. NEW YORK
-- Climate change could diminish North American water supplies and trigger disputes between the United States and Canada over water reserves already stressed by industry and agriculture, U.N. experts said Wednesday. Droughts would also occur more often in the U.S. Midwest and Southwest as warmer temperatures evaporate soil moisture. Those droughts could diminish underground supplies like the Edwards Aquifer in Texas, which supplies 2 million people with water, by up to 40 percent, and cut levels of the Ogallala aquifer which underlies eight U.S. states, the report said. During droughts like the Dust
Bowl of the 1930s, U.S. farmers pumped water from underground aquifers to save their fields through irrigation. "Much of that water is now gone," said MacCracken. "We've used up our savings bank."
1183 It has been commonly regarded by modern civilizations as a gift from nature to be used as they wish. It is ironical that many indigenous peoples had wisely assumed a responsibility to use natural resources sustainably. They, of course, were not tempted by such riches as copious amounts of industrial energy to ease their labors. Words of wisdom, in any case....
438

http://booksinterna tionale.pbwiki. com/%2ACanassate go
Canassatego -- Iroquois chief of the Onontagos (Onondagas)
"We know our lands have now become more valuable. The white people think we do not know their value; but we know that the land is everlasting, and the few goods we receive for it are soon worn out and gone." -Treaty negotiations with Six Nations.
1184
The natural bounty has already been severely depleted.
1186
This is happening globally but to varying degrees in regions. It is argued below that global entropic growth has probably peaked while peaking is most likely with some regions. The risk of catastrophic events has increased.
1187 Which it is – for them – at the expense of the ecosystem and the majority of humans.
1189
The growth of cities, especially in the developing countries, is literally beyond belief because there are not the natural resources to maintain them for any length of time.
1190
This will necessarily include how we value the symbolisms of society. ‘The Ecology of Work. Environmentalism can't succeed until it confronts the destructive nature of modern work - and supplants it’. Last of a two-part series.by Curtis White
Orion magazine (May / June 2007). This article is a perceptive comment on the misleading attitude to the place of ‘work’ in the operation of a society in tune with the ecosystem.
1191 The Sumerians learnt, too late, how crucial it was to have an adequate water supply!
1194
The irony is that they tend to have a lower quality of life. They are afflicted with affluenza and carmania.
1195
They have the leverage to fight the decline to some extent
1196
Many will still be able to drive their cars while millions will not be able to afford to cook their food!
1198
‘Earlier this month, the highly-rated Sloan School of Management at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the U.S. launched its response to the problem, the Laboratory for Sustainable Business. Also known, in a more catchy fashion, as the S-
Lab, it aims to help future business leaders tackle the issues connected to climate change.
439

Interactive computer-based simulations will let students play the role of entrepreneurs seeking to maximize their profits by investing in companies that do not harm the environment. S-Lab will teach future CEOs and business leaders the challenges of implementation and how the science of sustainability can be best communicated to policymakers and citizens. Up until now we have considered aspects of sustainability -- climate, energy, water, food, poverty, and social development – in isolation.’ This seems to be a sound approach yet it is based on the premise that sustainability is possible, so it must be leaving out some elements in the irreversible draw down of the natural bounty.
1199
There will be business opportunities in the dismantling of so many useless artifacts of the Body such as luxurious hotels, redundant airports and unnecessary freeways.
1200
It will, of course, require a major culture change. There are some signs of business waking up to the reality, especially in regard to climate change, in advance of government.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0614/p04s01-usgn.html?s=hns
New push to curb 'cyberwarming' from computers. Google, Intel, Microsoft, Dell, and
Hewlett-Packard pledged this week to develop and use more energy-efficient computers and computer components. by Gregory M. Lamb | Staff writer of the Christian Science Monitor. A new term may be joining the jumble of climate-change jargon: cyberwarming.
1201
‘Capital and Nature: An Interview with Paul Burkett by João Aguiar http://www.monthlyreview.org/mrzine/aguiar240407.html
This interview provides insight into how Marx saw capitalism. It shows how prescient he was about the divisions in society it would cause in the name of making a profit. It does, however, presume that economic growth is sustainable. This, of course, is a gross error because it presumes a natural bounty that can continually meet societies growing needs.
He clearly did not appreciate that the natural bounty was bound to decline as the parasitic society feeds on it.
440

1203 Heinberg discuses the roles of various categories of tools in the advance of civilization in ‘The Party’s Over’ (pp23-26).
1205
On Capitalism, Europe, and the World Bank by Noam Chomsky and Dennis Ott
April 02, 2007 http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=10&ItemID=12475
Chomsky provides insight into how this capitalism has developed in the industrialized countries. He does not, however, look at the temporary impact of cheap industrial energy on these developments. This lack of consideration of the eco costs is common, even amongst such knowledgeable people as Chomsky.
1206
This is an interesting example of the prejudiced view that society has of many activities. Automation has contributed much to the rise in material standard of living.
That is the common view promoted by our political leaders. It has also enabled the unwise consumption of many natural resources, principally for profitability, so for the benefit of the well off at the expese of future generations as well as the environment!
1207
The powerful laud this as an example of the ‘trickle down’ effect. In actual fact, the improvement in the standard of living of the workers has come predominantly by using up industrial energy, so is not sustainable. The material standard of living of the powerful, however, is not so vulnerable because they still have the leverage of money and know how.
1209 No matter how unreasonable they may be.
1210 So they can beat of the opposition and grow
1211 advertising has become a deceitful vocation for this purpose. ‘Car ads face CO2 warnings’ by Mark Sweney,October 24, 2007
MediaGuardian.co.uk. ‘The advertising industry has been dealt a major blow after proposals for tobacco-style warning messages to appear in all car ads were agreed in a
European Parliament vote today. The vote on the proposals, which involve dedicating
20% of any ad space including TV or radio airtime to messages about CO2 emission levels, gives the advertising industry a new headache.’ This is an example of the slow
441

movement to foster realistic appreciation of the damage being done by fallacious advertising.
1212
Deseret Morning News (Salt Lake City, Utah, U.S.) deseretnews. com
Sunday, June 10, 2007 New surge, old fallout from nuclear age ’Mining: Frenzy of uranium exploration in Utah, Colorado.’ By Nancy Lofholm, The Denver Post
GATEWAY, Colo. - Plans for 100 new nuclear power plants around the world have pushed the price of uranium skyward and set off a frenzy of exploration in Utah and western Colorado. More than 18,000 new mining claims in the two states have been filed in the past year. The number of uranium companies snatching them up has jumped from
10 to more than 400 over the past couple of years. And since 2002, when the yellow-andorange- tinged ore fell to $7 a pound, the price has climbed nearly 1,900 percent.’ This article illustrates the myopic nature of many business decisions with perceived profitability being the dominant factor.
1213
Their usury nature has existed for millennia but the scope has grown explosively in recent times, encouraged by the acquisitiveness of the populace.
1214
‘how’ is a good question!
1216 Because influential people can take sustenance for granted – for now.
1218 It is accepted that natural disasters will cause appreciable damage while the normal impact of these forces is regarded as wear and tear that will ultimately end the development.
1219
They tend to counter balance the income from insolation.
1220
So there is less for future generations.
1221
It is the tendency towards disorder. Even when the Body had a tendency towards order this is more than offset by the tendency towards disorder of Gaia. It is arguable that entropy is now increasing for both. http://www.planetar k.com/dailynewss tory.cfm/ newsid/44968/story.htm
’Time is Right for Biotech Wheat - US Growers’ October 24, 2007. KANSAS CITY,
Mo. – ‘The time is right for a renewed push for biotech wheat, leading US wheat industry players said this week, as tight world wheat supplies and high prices underscore strong
442

global demand for the key food crop.’ This is another example of an emerging response to the predicaments arising from global entropic growth. The price rise is an indication of the falling supply of wheat, due largely to climate change, and the increasing demand, due partly to increasing prosperity in China and India. It will, at best, have a trivial mitigation impact on the World Problematique whilst supporting the hope delusion.
1222 http://news. independent. co.uk/world/ middle_east/ article2843961. ece
‘Disaster looms as 'Saddam dam' struggles to hold back the Tigris’ By Patrick Cockburn in Mosul, 08 August 2007
‘As world attention focuses on the daily slaughter in Iraq, a devastating disaster is impending in the north of the country, where the wall of a dam holding back the Tigris river north of Mosul city is in danger of imminent collapse.’ This just one example of the type of predicament that will become more common as global entropy grows.
1223
SINGAPORE: May 14, 2007, ‘A potential switch to use marine diesel in ship engines from fuel oil would increase global carbon dioxide missions, require billions in refinery investments and could boost oil prices, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) is considering options that could be implemented by 2012 to improve the environmental footprint of the shipping industry, seen as a major source of greenhouse gas, sulfer and particulate emissions, including switching to cleaner but more costly diesel.’ This is another example of the development of predicaments for society as global entropy grows.
1225
There is pride in the ‘progress’ but most of the eco cost is discounted.
1226
Using the leverage of knowledge, technology and money.
1228
Scientists have been very good at probing into many facets of how nature works and commenting on what is still a mystery. The powerful, however, has been keen to take advantage of the mysteries unraveled by science without employing the precautionary principle. They believe in socializing the risk!
443

1229 ‘we are nearing the end of the Petroleum Age and have entered the Age of
Insufficiency.’ This is a common anthropogenic view amongst seemingly knowledgeable people. The basic problem has been the ignorance of the Dependence on Nature Law.
1230
Science 25 May 2007: Vol. 316. no. 5828, pp. 1114 - 1117
News Focus: AGBIOTECH: ’A Growing Threat Down on the Farm’ by Robert F.
Service. This article provides appreciable detail about the fight to provided effective herbicides in the face of the ability of weeds to adapt. It provides evidence of scientists striving to better nature without understanding of the possible consequences. There are signs that this has yielded short-term (largely financial) benefits and long term cost
(erosion of sound farming principles). There is no sign of application of the precautionary principle. There is plenty of sign of plant and soil scientists doing their best to ‘solve’ problems previous ‘advances’ have created.
1231
That began with the Agricultural Revolution but has grown rapidly since the start of the Industrial Revolution but is now decaying. The emerging Earthly Revolution may ease the pain slightly.
1233
P25 of ‘the Revenge of Gaia’
1234 But we can be wrong about when it applies! As one respected expert put it baldly in
1948, "The self-regulation mechanisms of the carbon cycle can cope with the present influx of carbon of fossil origin." The ability of the oceans and land to absorb this influx has now been found to be orders less than the rate of influx, hence the global warming industrialization has fostered.
1235 Doubtless there are theories as to what sets these limits but all we need here is to recognize that there are a multitude of natural limits that exist.
1236
Money supply is limited to numbers in computers by fiat. It is not self-regulating!
1237
We tend to know our own personal limits
1238
the engines require very specialized fuel, presently derived from oil. Possible substitutes are derived from coal or natural gas. All feasible sources are exhaustible and there is increasing competition for their use as they become scarce!
444

1239 All limits can only be approached asymptotically. That is, the closer you get the harder it is. That is why oil exploration and extraction has to go into harsher terrain fro declining returns even though there is improved technology.
1240
fallaciously
1241
I sometimes wonder whether they are prepared to accept that they are aging.
1242
The major oil companies are showing their covert recognition of depletion by diversifying into other forms of energy supply just as the oil producing countries are strengthening control over their supply. The new Great Game is taxing the strengths of countries as well as the oil giants.
1243
There is quite a scramble going on in the Middle East!
1244
That intangible money will not be able to counter.
1245
From ABC Radio National's Health Report: http://www.abc.net.au/rn/healthreport/stories/2007/1969924.htm#transcri pt
’A researcher in the United States claims that the reason for the obesity epidemic is more than just the calories we eat and the lack of exercise. It's a substance that food manufacturers are widely using.’ The researcher explains how the foods fostered by the manufacturers encourage increased consumption, so profits, at the expense of upsetting the self-regulation mechanisms in metabolism.
1247 Scientists have warned that coal combustion gives off dangerous emissions for many years but their messages have not been heard because money has shouted louder. It is quite indicative of the blindness of our leaders that it has taken the present droughts to get them to wake up to water supply problems that the experts have been warning about for many years. The current discussions about what to do with the Murray-Darling Basin problem in south-east Australia and the Colorado Basin predicament in the U.S. are very belated attempts to remedy malpractices, using declining natural resources. This is but one example of the failure of society to understand what their activities are doing, despite the evidence of entropic growth.
1248 http://www.marklynas.org/sixdegrees
Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet, by Mark Lynas,
445

The review of this book takes the view that Lynas has a plausible understanding of what climate change could do to the operation of the ecosystem and its cancer, civilization.
1249
There are emerging scientific views that the decline of the Mayan and Chinese Tang civilizations around the tenth century was partially due natural climate change. These views will doubtless be taken into consideration in plans to mitigate the impact of the emerging climate change. That will be a convenient way of not facing up to the holistic predicament, the rapid reduction in the remaining natural bounty.
1250
The fourth assessment of IPCC reduces the uncertainty markedly. There is, however, no acknowledgement in the report of the fact that Western society has irresponsibly released in little more than a century vast amounts of carbon that took millions of years to accumulate naturally.
1251
Those whose livelihoods depend on the skiing seasons in Europe and the U.S. will take no notice of what the skeptical politicians and scientists have to say as they tried to adjust to what they know has happened.
1252 http://www.abc. net.au/news/ stories/2007/ 12/13/2117667. htm
Global warming causing record disasters: report
The International Federation of the Red Cross (IFRC) says global warming caused a record number of natural disasters across the world in 2007, up nearly 20 per cent from a year earlier.
1253 Indigenous people are not so ignorant! They often have to adapt their long established life style through no fault of theirs. They tend to follow the adaptive lead of many plants and animals!
1254
Smoker “What’s the verdict, doc?” Doctor “It looks like lung cancer. You should give the smoking away immediately. I can arrange some chemotherapy.” Smoker “I gather you are not sure. I do not like the idea of chemotherapy. I think I will pass on that for now.” Doctor “That is not wise as the earlier the better the chance of controlling the
446

growth.” Smoker “Thanks, doc, but I will take my chances but I will cut back a bit. I do not like the coughing.”
1255
Many powerful figures in business and government are now seriously addressing what can be done to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, often because they see it as an opportunity! The findings of the IPCC scientists are now widely accepted. Action is slowly building up under the prodding of business with the backing of government in some circumstances.
1256
Peak Coal. The Daily Reckoning posted this article, originally in the Fleet Street
Letter, by Michael Orme, which suggests the price of high-energy coal will catch up with oil as Asian demand continues to grow. http://www.dailyrec koning.co. uk/website/ home.html
’The Dirt on Coal ‘By Michael Orme. This article discusses the developing coal supply and demand situation as a consequence of the exploding Asian economies. It does not detail the likely climate change consequences. It presumes business as usual. It is a totally unrealistic view. The author clearly does not understand entropic growth or the consequences of the immutable duality. The article does, however, indicate how vulnerable China, India, South Korea and Vietnam are because of the dependence of their industry on coal.
1257 China's coal output rose 15.7 percent in January-February from a year earlier, the
National Bureau of Statistics reported Thursday, as data showed the country regaining its status as a net coal exporter for the month of February. Total domestic production in the first two months of this year was 316.8 million metric tons, the report said. That corresponds to about 2000 million metric tons for the year.
1258
There is appreciable debate in the U.S. about the best form of coal-fired power plants to install to meet increasing energy demand even as oil and natural gas supplies decline.
There is recognition that some form of carbon emission limiting will be required in the future. Cheap coal threat to global climate http://environment. newscientist. com/channel/ earth/mg19325954 .700?
DCMP=NLC-nletter& nsref=mg19325954 .700
447

17 March 2007, From New Scientist Print Edition. Ivan Semeniuk Boston
AT THE back of Ernest Moniz's mind a clock is ticking. Moniz is director of the
Laboratory for Energy and the Environment at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
His mental countdown marks the narrowing window of time that remains for the US to address a looming environmental disaster fuelled by the burning of mountains of cheap
American coal. This is just one sane, positive look at a rapidly growing problem.
1259
Christian Science Monitor, December 23, 2004 http://www.precauti on.org/lib/
07/prn_new_plants_bury_kyoto.041223.htm
’NEW COAL PLANTS BURY 'KYOTO'’ [Rachel's introduction: New greenhouse-gas emissions from China, India, and the U.S. will swamp cuts from the Kyoto treaty.]
By Mark Clayton So much for Kyoto. The official treaty to curb greenhouse-gas emissions hasn't gone into effect yet and already three countries are planning to build nearly 850 new coal-fired plants, which would pump up to five times as much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere as the Kyoto Protocol aims to reduce.
1260
Ed Pilkington in New York,Monday March 5, 2007
< http://www.guardian.co.uk
>
The Guardian. A draft report prepared by the Bush administration admits that emissions of greenhouse gases by the United States will rise by 2020 to 20% above 2000 levels, flying in the face of warnings from scientists that drastic action to cut emissions is needed if environmental catastrophe is to be averted.
1262 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6433503.stm
‘EU agrees renewable energy target EU states will have to embrace wind, solar and hydroelectric power European Union leaders have agreed to adopt a binding target on the use of renewable energy, such as wind and solar power, officials say.’ This is a cynical move to suggest that the EU is leading the way. It will have negligible impact on energy consumption or climate change.
448

1263 It is ironical that politicians and business in Australia are discussing measures to reduce emissions there even though that would have no impact on climate change.
Australia’s emission rate is currently 1.6% of the global value.
1265
DIRE HEALTH EFFECTS OF POLLUTION REPORTED http://www.precaution.org/lib/07/prn_ucs_diesel_report.061207.htm
[Rachel's introduction: Diesel soot from construction equipment is blamed for thousands of illnesses and premature deaths.]
By Janet Wilson, Times Staff Writer
The effects of air pollution from construction equipment in California are "staggering," according to a report by the Union of Concerned Scientists. This is just one of many stories about the effects of pollution. This predicament is a lot worse in Asia, particularly
China.
1266 http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-scidisease25feb25,0,7795423.story?coll=la-home-headlines
Global warming: enough to make you sick. Rising temperatures are redistributing bacteria, insects and plants, exposing people to diseases they'd never encountered before.
By Jia-Rui Chong, Times Staff Writer, February 25, 2007. The spread of human disease has become one of the most worrisome subplots in the story of global warming.
Incremental temperature changes have begun to redraw the distribution of bacteria, insects and plants, exposing new populations to diseases that they have never seen before.
A report from the World Health Organization estimated that in 2000 about 154,000 deaths around the world could be attributed to disease outbreaks and other conditions sparked by climate change.
1267
Culture Change in a note on what San Francisco is doing points out ‘Supervisor
Michela Alioto-Pier has authored an ordinance that will ban toys, child care products, and
449

child-feeding products made with certain phthalates, and in future ban toys, child care products, and child feeding products made with bisphenol-A, pending State action.
Phthalates are softeners, and bisphenol-A is a major component of hard plastic s. They leach into our bodies and the water supply, and are not limited to baby and child products: blood bags and shower curtains have phthalates, and cans and jar-lids have bisphenol-A. These toxic and estrogenic chemicals are increasingly implicated in deadly diseases that are epidemics in modern consumer society.
1268
Rachel's Democracy & Health News #890, January 18, 2007 http://www.precauti on.org/lib/ 07/prn_ijc. 070115.htm
REGULATORY FAILURE IN THE GREAT LAKES, PART 1
[Rachel's introduction: A new government report on the Great Lakes says the system for regulating toxic chemicals is "inadequate" and needs to be replaced by a precautionary approach because large numbers of humans are in danger. Both the U.S. and Canadian systems for controlling toxic chemicals have failed.] This is just one example of what is happening world wide.
1269
The severity of the impact of logging on such aspects as soil fertility, water run off, habitat destruction and global warming is becoming better known in scientific circles but action has been hampered by business striving to meet the increasing demand for stuff.
1270
National Geographic News, Jan 4, 2007. Coal Mining Causing Earthquakes, Study
Says
1272
ROOSEVELT INDIGENOUS AREA, Brazil — Some of the world's most abundant deposits of diamonds are embedded in the reddish soil of the Amazon jungle here. But for the Cinta-Larga Indians who live on this remote reservation, that discovery has brought more misfortune than riches. This is just one example of the doubtful value of having natural resources that other people lust for.
1273 http://www.guardian .co.uk/environme nt/2007/nov/ 03/food.climatec hange
Empty shelves in Caracas. Food riots in West Bengal and Mexico. Warnings of hunger in
Jamaica, Nepal, the Philippines and sub-Saharan Africa. Soaring prices for basic foods are beginning to lead to political instability, with governments being forced to step in to
450

artificially control the cost of bread, maize, rice and dairy products. Record world prices for most staple foods have led to 18% food price inflation in China, 13% in Indonesia and
Pakistan, and 10% or more in Latin America, Russia and India, according to the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO). Wheat has doubled in price, maize is nearly 50% higher than a year ago and rice is 20% more expensive, says the UN. Next week the FAO is expected to say that global food reserves are at their lowest in 25 years and that prices will remain high for years.’ Lester Brown, founder of the Washington-based Worldwatch
Institute thinktank, said: "The competition for grain between the world's 800 million motorists, who want to maintain their mobility, and its 2 billion poorest people, who are simply trying to survive, is emerging as an epic issue." This article details the emerging global food crisis exacerbated by climate change and growing trend of food for fuel for well off in the developed countries. It is an example of the predicaments that can be expected to grow rapidly with entropic growth. It is also an example of the differential nature of the predicaments due to regional factors.
1274
There is no way the incredibly poor in cities in many countries can survive, even though they entail negligible eco cost, as they have no means of obtaining the basic necessities of life because money usurps right to life.
1275 Psychological rather than material.
1276 Although the majority of the middle class will become poor as the economy collapses.
1278
A common view now(Wikipedia)is that ecosystems are so often disrupted that ecological succession is initiated that trends towards a climax. That is, ecosystems are generally dynamic rather than quasi steady. That view is consistent with the assertion here that synthetic operations have significantly disrupted ecosystems that then tend towards a climax, possibly new. That is, natural forces tend to help the ecosystem to slowly recover from the abuses of civilization.
1279
Heinberg p14 on
1280
agriculture started perturbing the ecosystem significantly well before industrialization accentuated this impact of civilization.
451

1281 These have an inherent de-stabilizing influence. They oppose self-regulation. There is reason to believe they had a trivial impact in Gaia until the disruption due to civilization.
Those contributing to climate change are current significant examples. It is ironical that non self-regulating human activities have instigated some non self-regulating natural processes. This is another unintended consequence of our cleverness!
1282
That seems to be coming to an end now as entropic growth has peaked.
1283
As listed later.
1284
New York Times report dpa German Press Agency. Published: Thursday March 29,
2007. New York- The income gap between rich and poor in the United States has increased significantly, The New York Times online edition reported Thursday.
According to the report, new analyses of 2005 tax data shows that the top 300,000
Americans collectively enjoyed almost as much income as the bottom 150 million
Americans. Per person, the top group received 440 times as much as the average person in the bottom half earned, nearly doubling the gap from 1980.
1285
Which facilitates the wasteful use of natural resources from other regions.
1286 Look what it has done in many African countries.
1287 This well-proven method for enabling the defense industry to profit is self-promoting in potentially antagonistic countries. The Cold War was the classic example of this phenomenon but it still prospers.
Some realistic cynics note that the U.S. is in Iraq to get enough oil to fight for oil! The corporations that make money from this exercise would argue differently.
< http://www.tomdispa tch.com/post/ 174810/ michael_klare_ the_pentagon_ as_global_ gas_guzzler>
’The Pentagon v. Peak Oil. How Wars of the Future May Be Fought Just to Run the
Machines That Fight Them’ By Michael T. Klare. In this article, Klare spells out the ironical RFM that is making a major contribution to the coming collapse of industrialization by accelerating the run down of exhaustible oil for no worthwhile purpose.
1288
The elite have been able to use their position to improve it at the expense of the workers. ‘UN experts condemn globalization and econ liberalization.’ By Prensa Latina,
452

February 9, 2007. UN specialists noted Friday that the setting up of globalization and easing of economic restrictions have worsened income inequality and poverty in the world. The top official along with the director of the Social Policy and Development
Division Jacques Baudot, both wrote the book "Flat World, big gaps" that emphasizes the relation between economic liberalization and globalization with poverty and inequality.
Contrary to economists´ arguments saying that globalization creates global increase and economic liberalization reduces inequalities, the authors of the book highlight the "huge gap between the poorest and the richest."
1289
The use of performance enhancing drugs is extremely likely to foster the collapse of professional sports in the near future.
1290
By performance enhancing drugs as well as by training.
1292
There are still some indigenous tribes who manage to live quite well with nature.
1293
the rich who flaunt their material wealth to show how successful they have been in raping the ecosystem! They now have to resort to gated communities for self preservation! This is like the role of castles of old.
1294
There will a continuing eco cost for the operation and maintenance of the Panama
Canal even as the fuel for ships becomes very scarce.
1295
The lights on in an empty skyscraper at night entails an appreciable financial cost because the owners believe it is valuable even though it is inherently worthless, yet entails an irrevocable eco cost.
1296 Farmers, doctors, teachers, singers, writers and careers are just some that come readily to mind.
1297 Especially as it consumes so much irreplaceable fuel.
1298 Some people would argue convincingly that military equipment has no worthwhile place in society but that does not affect the fact that it does place an appreciable load on the ecosystem and that its supply is an RFM.
1300
cars, irrigation and sewerage systems, airliners, skyscrapers, cities all contribute to the operation of the Body
1301
power, communication, education and medical.
1302
We even provide a list of those that are regarded as outstanding.
453

1303 All these constructs inherently have a limited life. Many of them will be seen to be real liabilities as the natural bounty becomes scarce.
1304
There are very few who realize that this Body growth is unsustainable. The masses would be aghast if they realized how likely it is that the great cities, London, New York,
Rome, Paris, Moscow, Rio de Janeiro, San Francisco, Shanghai are to go into rapid decline in the forseeable future.
1306
but I am sure they wonder at, for example, the ability of the human body to develop and operate so reliably from foetus through to corpse without external control in most instances.
1307
One of the major points made in this essay is that society is enthusiastically pushing the pinnacle of civilization to the sky whilst the foundations crumble.
1308
The powerful use money to erect symbols – of their stupid misuse of the natural bounty.
1309 http://www.pbs. org/journeytopla netearth/ hope/mexicocity. html
‘Home to over 20 million citizens and growing by 350,000 each year, living conditions are so serious that a 200-year-old celebration in praise of liberty is often marked by angry demonstrations demanding environmental action. How did this happen? How could such a proud and beautiful city become a metaphor for all that could go wrong with urban development?’ ‘The lesson of Mexico City is simple. Despite all its history, all its efforts, the devastating consequences of uncontrolled growth serve as an environmental warning to the rest of the world.’ This article details an extreme case of the problems generated by un-regulated growth of cities. It is a typical example of the failure of human developments. It is a problem exacerbated by the declining amount of natural bounty available for remedial action.
1310
and the infrastructure maintenance is largely a local predicament that will have to be prioritized with the sustenance of society.
1312
Organisms, ocean waves, heat waves, snowfalls and the like, including us.
1313
Others, like the day and seasons, are cyclic.
1314
Every system needs the input of sustenance to keep functioning.
1315
its form of sustenance
454

1316 prioritizing the use of some of the remaining resources for maintenance purposes will be quite a predicament!
1318
This anthropogenic presumption has been a major factor in civilization ravaging the ecosystem, without permission! Now we have severally degraded our life support system.
1319
this presents no predicament when the resource is not transportable but that is not often the case.
1320
other species have had little say in the matter!
1321
Something like 40% of the land has been taken over for this purpose.
1322
Heinberg describes this takeover on pp 20-23. It is virtually irreversible because nature has a very limited capability to reclaim the land quickly. Ecological succession is generally not rapid. But it can happen, as downtown Detroit and the Mayan cities show.
1323
Australia essentially swaps iron ore, coal and uranium for manufactured goods through globalized trade. This is short-term gain at the expense of long-term deprivation.
Its worth may hardly justify the eco cost, especially as many of the goods serve no worthwhile purpose.
1324 The historical feudal system is the classic example of this societal malfeasance. It has been largely replaced by more sophisticated methods of robbing the masses of their rights to a fair share of the natural bounty.
1325
oil is the prime example but shared water resources (in rivers) is another one causing predicaments.
1326 some European countries are prime examples. On the other hand, the U.S. was originally so rich in many natural resources that it did not need to do this in its early development, save for using (and abusing) slave labor!
1327
The influx of Mexicans into the U.S. is the prime current example although it is growing rapidly in some European countries. Slave wage labor is having a big impact on economic growth in China.
1328
Primarily driven by electricity
1330
The Chronicle Herald (Halifax, Nova Scotia),January 8, 2007 http://www.precaution.org/lib/07/when_do_trees_have_standing.070108.htm
455

WHEN DOES A TREE HAVE RIGHTS? [Rachel's introduction: Tamaqua Borough in
Pennsylvania is asserting the rights of nature in a unique law intended to curb corporate power.] by Silver Donald Cameron. Hardly anyone noticed it, but one of the most important events of 2006 may prove to have been the passage of the Tamaqua Borough
Sewage Sludge Ordinance, a law enacted by the 7,000 brave souls who inhabit the community of Tamaqua, Penn.
1331
It is like the heavy smoker who continues even though the coughing is getting worse.
1333
I generally qualify it by the term ’societal force’ to differentiate it from physical force.
1334
It is intriguing that often the competition is to see who can unknowingly do the most harm to the ecosystem. The one between Boeing and Airbus aims to put more airliners in the sky – to use up more scarce oil and to hasten climate change.
1335
This in no way implies that the unconstrained additional intellectual energy has been put to productive use.
1336
It is not to be expected that couch potatoes will take kindly to having to do more manual labor – like growing some potatoes in their back yard garden!
1339 the ultimate taboo in a capitalist system--a reduction of consumption.
1340 Retail giants in the U.S. and UK are adopting ‘green’ policies. This is seen as being market forces in beneficial operation but that is a biased view. It does nothing to discourage consumption of ‘stuff’. In fact, the companies doubtless adopted this policy to ensure their continuing control on the market in changing times.
1341 By the reasonably well off. It does not apply to the billions of poor who have to strive to get even the basics.
1342 Big Business is very adept at privatizing profit and socializing cost because it is their modus operandi. They have proven to be very adept are lobbying governance for this purpose.
1344
‘Fueling Global Warming. Federal subsides to Oil in the United States’ http://www.greenpeace.org/raw/content/usa/press/reports/fueling-global-warming.pdf
1345
with the Chinese and Indians now playing a prominent part.
1346
It is already very noticeable to many who can no longer afford to buy fuels for basic needs like cooking and heating.
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1348 Encouraging global tourism, so flymania, receives higher priority than maintaining sewerage systems!
1349 ‘REPRODUCTIVE LIBERTY AND OVERPOPULATION’ by Carol A. Kates,
Professor of Philosophy, Ithaca College. Abstract: This essay argues that 1) there is an imminent threat to survival posed by the human environmental deficit, and sustainability will require population reduction as well as changes in consumption; 2) reproductive liberty should not be considered a fundamental human right, or certainly not an indefeasible right; 3) a global agreement to address the "tragedy of the commons" should include the option of coercive measures to reduce population to a sustainable level.’ This essay details some of the consideration given over decades to this problem and then formulates some proposals for tackling it. It is a contribution to rational consideration of the crucial issue. It has, however, not appeared to have fostered the action that is now urgently required.
1350
Garrett Hardin labeled those who refused to see the problem of overpopulation as part of the "Ostrich Factor". I think that the term is appropriate for anyone who refuses to examine the evidence and, proverbially, sticks their head into the ground to avoid seeing the danger. Tackling overpopulation isn't a solution but a way of mitigating the problem.
1351 ‘WHAT IT WOULD TAKE TO PUT THE BRAKES ON GLOBAL WARMING’
By Steven Mufson, Washington Post, July 15, 2007. This article describes work at
Princeton on feasible, pragmatic means of reducing GHG emissions. It could well contribute to the assessment of worthwhile mitigation measures in due course. It is much more credible than many of the measures being put forward by politicians and businesses.
< http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/14/AR2007071401 >
1352
Contraction and Convergence (C&C) is a proposed strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to combat climate change. Conceived by the Global Commons Institute in the early 1990's, the Contraction and Convergence strategy consists of reducing overall emissions of greenhouse gases to a safe level, 'Contraction', where the global emissions are reduced because every country brings emissions per capita to a level which is equal
457

for all countries, 'Convergence'. This article by Michael McCarthy, Environmental
Journalist Of The Year, Published: 28 March 2006 includes ’Yet, as they did so, a group of MPs will offer a different way forward in the struggle to combat global warming, one which they think is the only alternative. It will mean turning established principles of
British economic life upside down. It will mean sacrifices from everyone. Therefore, they say, it will have to be taken out of politics. Internationally, he would like the system, formalised in the policy known as Contraction and
Convergence, developed by Aubrey Meyer of the Global Commons Institute. That would cut emissions of carbon-rich countries, while allowing those of carbon-poor countries to rise, until everyone has the same quota.
1353
Although everyone will have a ringside seat at the demise of the planet, am sure they'll find a way to sell tickets.... or maybe they'll sell popcorn popped on the sidewalk... http://www.enn.com/today.html?id=12447
‘Global Warming and New Technology Heat Up Race for Riches in Melting Arctic’,
March 23, 2007 By Doug Mellgren, Associated Press. This article details the obscene rush by business in an endeavor to devastate this emerging ecosystem to make profit by producing unnecessary goods. The reason: an international race for oil, fish, diamonds and shipping routes, accelerated by the impact of global warming on Earth's frozen north.
1354
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
1356 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/48e334ce-f355-11db-9845-000b5df10621.html
‘Industry caught in carbon ‘smokescreen’ By Fiona Harvey and Stephen Fidler in
London, April 25 2007 Companies and individuals rushing to go green have been spending millions on “carbon credit” projects that yield few if any environmental benefits.’ This article highlights an emerging scam whereby companies make money by fostering the green revolution without actually producing any benefits.
458

1357 Although the price rise in recent years has led to some demand destruction, primarily in those communities with the quietest voice! It is just contributing to increasing social divergence, even in rich countries like the U.S..
1359
It is fascinating that this personal energy, mental attitude, has no physical limits (so is not subject to the Laws of Thermodynamics) while the physical energy, which drives all biophysical operations, ends up as waste heat with use and is subject to these Laws. That is a lesson that society has yet to learn.
1360
Like McMansions, large yachts and frequent overseas holidays.
1361
Most people view wealth in terms of that abstraction money. Having money fosters self-esteem and power whilst enabling the purchase of material symbols. This personal wealth should not be confused with cultural wealth, which is a genuine useful production of society. The development and maintenance of cultural wealth should be part of the challenge of reacting to the aging of civilization’s Body.
1362
Numerous studies have shown wealthy people are generally less happy than those who have an adequate standard of living (but higher quality of life)
1363 Tom Wayburn examines this question in detail in http://dematerialism.net/
1365 there has been abundant literature over the centuries asserting the superiority of groups of people. Discussion of the merits of these assertions has no place in this essay.
The simple fact of the matter is that there is this wide-ranging social diversity with associated predatorial and prey characteristics. The irony is that the most successful have, in most cases, been successful in unnecessarily degrading the eco system.
1366 Oil is a global commodity so when the price rises Americans curse but ease off slightly on driving their SUVs while many Asians have to try and find wood to cook their meager food as they can no longer afford the paraffin.
1367
colonialism has been a past means employed by countries. Financial measures accomplish the same domination today without entailing the use of material resources. It is a very successful Mind game for those who have acquired the money weapon. "India is rated as one of the most corrupt countries with a "corruption perception index" (CPI) of
2.8 and is tied in the 90th place (out of 145
459

surveyed) with countries such as Gambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Russia, Nepal, and
Tanzania according to Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index 2004 which notes that "corruption is rampant in 60 countries, and the public sector is plagued by bribery". Finland, New
Zealand, Denmark, Iceland, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, Australia, and the
Netherlands hold the first ten positions as the least corrupt countries. Haiti and
Bangladesh are tied at rank 145 as the most corrupt countries. "One cannot fail to appreciate the correlation between how corrupt a country is and how poor it is. Are corrupt countries corrupt because they are poor, or is it that they are poor because they are corrupt? Perhaps there is some circularity in the causal chain and poverty and corruption are mutually cause and consequence.
1368
This has enabled them to get better education and access to better tools, so enhancing their power to draw down on the natural bounty in their region or elsewhere.
1369
But they will have more psychological problems in handling the decline.
1370 The financial legacy is not the only way of maintaining the continuing power of the elite.
1371 MANIFESTO OF THE POOR PEOPLE'S UNION. 31 MARCH 2007
Re-printed with postscript by James Staples, and post-postscript by Toren Wilder-Valimir
Classism is a reality; it is not an idea or theory. It is a day-to-day reality where some suffer so others can profit. This system is not permanent. It can be undone, but for this to happen, class itself must be undone. We believe in a world where rights are not given or taken away, but simply exist due to the factthat we are human beings. We believe in a world where the right to live free of fear goesunquestioned, where we can be certain of all parts of this world; where all parts of the environment, all species of animal and all human beings have the space to coexist. That world will never come if things are allowed to continue as they are. We are here to organize,for we are part of the social organism. If one part is sick, then the whole suffers. We willobtain our rights, not by having them handed down from some kind of superior, but by creating them in the here-and-now. This is our mission and it is guided by these points: 1) We deserve Freedom: Freedom from
460

fear, hunger, cold, helplessness and the sickness that comes from living in a place where there are those who suffer. 2) We Deserve Opportunity: The opportunity to work, to participate, to prosper and to create, control and guide our own destiny.
3) We deserve Shelter: To be out of the elements and to have the privacy so necessary for personal and spiritual growth. 4) We deserve Safety: From the police, from those who hate and fear poverty, from sexual violence and from any form of bigotry, whether based on class, race, gender, sexual orientation, age, or any other label. 5) We deserve Justice:
In courts, in jails and prisons, and from the representatives of this city, this county, this state and this country. 6) We deserve Happiness and the means to it. We should have the opportunity to solve our problems, have the means to let them stay solved and move on with our lives in a way that is healthy, fulfilling and complete. We will accept nothing less. We are the Poor People's Union, a union made up of people whose lives or consciousnesses have been touched in some way by poverty. We are made strong by the belief that equality is a reality, and if we as a society want it, then we cannot ask for it, but instead must make it for ourselves.’ There are many who would support this manifesto. Yet it is based on a misconception. The ecosystem is not for our exploitation so we can attain the above ideals. The manifesto is unrealistic because everything we do and use draws down on the irreplaceable natural bounty available from Gaia. There are natural limits on what society can do and they are being approached in many regions. The are already too many people. The entropy has grown too much. The irreversible damage has already been done.
1374 ‘Bankers Gone Bonkers: Global Financiers Should Make Insanity Plea’ By
Pam Martens, CounterPunch, February 4, 2008. This article describes the chaotic development of the financial market. It ends with ’Cumulatively, all of these examples suggest that a strong argument could be made that unfettered greed finds its ultimate expression in systemic corruption which is frequently indistinguishable from insanity. Please note just how much of this insanity can be placed at the doorstep of self-regulation.’
1375
'Vulture funds' threat to developing world. Meirion Jones, BBC Newsnight. Vulture funds - as defined by the International Monetary Fund and Gordon Brown amongst others
461

- are companies which buy up the debt of poor nations cheaply when it is about to be written off and then sue for the full value of the debt plus interest - which might be ten times what they paid for it. This is just one example of how selfish people are making a major contribution to the decline of civilization for their short-term gain. They then accentuate the problem by spending some of their ill-gotten gains on wasteful stuff.
1376
Corporate Crime is more Harmful than Street Violence http://www.plenglish.com/article.asp?ID=%7BB87C4407-51E3-4466-
8CA91FE48D0D4025%7D%29&language=EN
Washington, Jun 17 (Prensa Latina). In bodies, injuries or dollars lost, corporate crime and violence in the US wins over street crime, said Russell Mokhiber, editor of Corporate
Crime Reporter before an audience of business executives and stockowners. The editor approached the issue before the Taming the Giant Corporation conference in this capital on June 9. The FBI estimates, for example, that burglary and robbery costs the nation
$3.8 billion a year, but the losses from a handful of major corporate frauds like Tyco,
Adelphia, Worldcom and Enron swamp all other street crimes. Health care fraud alone costs Americans $100 billion to $400 billion a year. While the savings and loan fraud -- which former Attorney General Dick Thornburgh called "the biggest white collar swindle in history" -- cost us anywhere from $300 billion to $500 billion.
1377
Counterpunch, November 21, 2006 ‘RULES OF THE GAME’ How Multinational
Corporations Avoid Paying Their Taxes [Rachel's introduction: A former drug company official blows the whistle on corporate techniques for evading taxes.]By Peter Rost, MD.
This is just one example of the games that Big Business plays to maximize their profits at the expense of the masses.
1378
The extent to which corruption and bad governance are preventing Africa's oil boom from lifting millions out of poverty has been laid bare at a conference in Geneva. The elite in the developed countries seem to have the power to hide the endemic rampant corruption.
1379 The World Health Organisation has found that over fifty percent of the pharmaceuticals sold in South East Asia are bogus and have led to many preventable deaths from malaria and other diseases.
462

1380 Health predicaments caused by pollution is another one. Many studies of this predicament have been carried out, e.g. http://themes.eea.europa.eu/Environmental_issues/human but there is little action to prevent its impact. If anything, business sees it as an opportunity!
1382
This qualifying term is used here to avoid misunderstanding. There are often comments made referring to energy that leave doubt as to what form is implied. This can really cause confusion about whether the Thermodynamic Laws apply to the matter being discussed. They only apply to physical energy which includes industrial energy.
1383
There are current moves in South America to essentially rationalize the regional natural resources like oil and gas rather than allow Western countries to continue to purloin these resources. It is an example of social energy at work for the benefit of the countries concerned. It will slow down the depletion of the region’s natural bounty. It is ironical that Cuba has shown the way as they were forced into rationality partly by U.S. sanctions. These South American moves follow what happened in East Asia decades ago during a more benign period.
1384 Cycle plan wins vote
By Terri
Published: 13 for £50m
December lottery funding
Judd
2007
An ambitious scheme to create new cycling and walking routes across the country has won the biggest-ever public lottery grant, far outstripping its rivals in a battle for public support.
1385
Fostered by the communication revolution with Internet.
1386
From COMMUNALISM #10 June 2007. International Journal for a Rational Society at www.communalism.org
. Democratizing the Municipality. The Promise of
Participatory Budgeting . By Sveinung Legard. This article provides some sound comments upon how people power could improve the operation of society. It does not, however, recognize the main point made here that the material operation of society is totally dependent on using the irreplaceable natural bounty.
463

1388 ‘Resource Wars’ by William K. Tabb http://www.monthlyreview.org/0107tabb.htm
provides insight into how European countries carried this out and the bitter legacy in many of the former colonies.
1389
Primarily European in recent centuries before the U.S. became dominant prior to its current decline. China is rapidly taking up this mantle. The number of fragile countries, particularly in Africa, is increasing rapidly.
1390
Rich is an anthropogenic term for those who have been most able to ravage the ecosystem. In ecocentric terms, as here, they are the ‘robber barons’.
1391
That is, these countries have been predators.
1392
Million tonnes of oil equivalent: this is a common commodity measure of industrial energy. It can be converted to physical measures like kilowatt hours.
1393 http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/07/08/EDGOTQ8JBS1.DTL
‘We're running out of water’ by Martin Lagod, July 8, 2007. This article gives some detail of the developing global water crisis. There is little doubt that it is one major factor stemming from the growth of global entropy. Mitigating its impact will entail consumption of appreciable amounts of the remaining natural bounty but this may well be worthwhile because water is so essential. Water supply predicaments do not receive as much attention as oil supply because the latter affects business more. Water supply, however, is probably a more crucial issue as it is essential to food production.
1395 Much is made of the benefits to society of the spin offs from defense R&D but these have largely contributed to the edifice at a high, hidden eco cost. They have hardly been worthwhile in any rational sense despite the value ascribed to them. A lot of the resulting technology has actually exacerbated the developing problems with the body of civilization.
1396
You cannot let your enemies have better equipment than you!
1397 http://www.informat ionclearinghouse .info/article162 60.htm
464

A National Intelligence Estimate on the United States. By Chalmers Johnson
’Long article explaining how US spending on the military maintains the GDP growth and stops the economy from collapsing. Of course you have to rattle the sabres from time to time so that you can increase military spending further next year ...’ The American military industry are doing so well in replacing losses in Afghanistan and Iraq that their stocks are zooming with their profits. This is a well-proven method of privatizing profits whilst socializing the costs – the killing of civilians!
1398 By the powerful in governments because they still suffer the delusion that they must fight other communities for natural resources. Their real enemies are themselves. They consume too much.
1399
From The Sunday Times, July 15, 2007 ‘Energy: the new cold war’ by Liam Fox.
This article discusses the developing conflict for energy security. It is quite laughable that seemingly knowledgeable people cannot get it into their thick heads that the main sources of industrial energy (the fossil fuels and nuclear) are dangerous and exhaustible. The only rational approach is to tone down the addiction to industrial energy rather than use energy to compete for it.
1400
Global military spending hits $1.2 trillion: study http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070611/ts_nm/armssipri_dc
Global military spending rose 3.5 percent last year to $1.2 trillion as U.S. costs for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan mounted, a European research body said on Monday in an annual study.
1401
This is another disease for which no cure is apparent. Those tanks and planes really do gobble up the fuel.
1402
This is just another example of technology chasing its tail! The military naturally try to develop technology that takes advantage of the perceived weaknesses of the potential enemy – and vice versa. So military technology spirals upward in sophistication – together with the profits of the involved industry as natural capital spirals down.
1403
These are likely to continue to grow with natural resource conflict.
1405
Despite attempts by corporations to prevent disclosure in some cases.
1406
This growth has come at a tremendous eco cost over millennia. It has led to many well-known cultural benefits for society but has also led to many misperceptions about
465

the place of civilization in the ecosystem. We have not learnt to treat Gaia with the respect that our life-support system deserves and many previous civilizations applied.
1407
This is not to say that many have taken this knowledge on board!
1408
It is another example of RFM
1409
But we are slow learners about things that do not suit us!
1410
A major lesson being learnt by our scientists is how little we really do know. That lack of knowledge does not, however, inhibit business! They are concerned with the possibility of making a profit within the presently perceived field of play.
1412
It seems to have swamped wisdom
1413
as measured by the assessed worth against the eco cost.
1414
advanced technology enabled the UK to rapidly extract the oil and gas in the North
Sea to power their expanding economy – for a time. Now they have to import industrial energy from elsewhere, primarily Russia, to try and maintain an unsustainable consumer economy!
1415 I have repeatedly asked for examples of where technology has managed to emulate natural processes significantly and successfully. There has never been a response, which does not surprise me. The interesting part about this is that natural processes generally entail no eco cost whereas those installed by humans do, even when unsuccessful!
1417
But not by government and business
1418
Which will only mitigate the decline slightly.
1419 It is really quite surprising that the U.S. lags in this regard.
1421
So far, developing countries account for only about 23 percent of emissions accumulated since the start of the Industrial Revolution. But they also account for 73 percent of the global emissions growth in 2004. This has been largely driven by China's explosive economic growth – and explosive growth of ecological devastation!
1422
Christian Science Monitor, December 23, 2004 http://www.precaution.org/lib/07/prn_newplants_burykyoto.041223.htm
NEW COAL PLANTS BURY 'KYOTO' [Rachel's introduction: New greenhouse-gas emissions from China, India, and the U.S. will swamp cuts from the Kyoto treaty.] by
466

Mark Clayton. So much for Kyoto. The official treaty to curb greenhouse-gas emissions hasn't gone into effect yet and already three countries are planning to build nearly 850 new coal-fired plants, which would pump up to five times as much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere as the Kyoto Protocol aims to reduce.
1423
`Asian Brown Cloud' threatens Himalayas, report says
< http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/world/archives/2007/08/02/2003372393 > http://www.
taipeitimes.com/News/world/archives/2007/08/02/2003372393
AFP, Aug 02, 2007
‘The haze of pollution that blankets southern Asia is accelerating the loss of Himalayan glaciers, bequeathing an incalculable bill to China,
India and other countries whose rivers flow from this source, scientists warned yesterday.’ This article indicates that the developed industrialized countries are not the major instigators of some facets of climate change.
1424 http://www.orionmagazine.org/index.php/articles/article/289
‘Low Life’ by Julia Whitty. Published in the May/June 2007 issue of Orion magazine.
For the past five years, the tiny South Pacific nation of Tuvalu, which at no point on its nine atolls is higher than thirteen feet above sea level, has openly discussed plans to file a lawsuit against the United States and Australia at the International Court of Justice in The
Hague. Their life style is being ruined by climate change provokes by industrialization. It is, of course, ridiculous to blame Australia because that country makes a very small contribution to emissions because of its small population.
‘Voice crying in the wilderness http://www.enn.com/ecosystems/article/23020
Published September 13, 2007. ‘Tuvalu about to disappear into the ocean’
SEOUL (Reuters) - The tiny Pacific island state of Tuvalu on Thursday urged the rest of the world to do more to combat global warming before it sinks beneath the ocean.
1425 This is just one example of EC&PP.
1426 it currently contributes 1.6% to the global GHG emissions. It is aiming to act on this matter simply to show recognition of its prior shameful behavior. It has the highest per capita emission rate.
467

1427 Although the governments have to face up to one issue, water supply deficiencies.
Their attempts are almost laughable in the ignorance of physical fundamentals. Drinking water is used for cooling in the Yallourn power station that supplies Melbourne with electricity. There are now plans to use some of this electricity for desalination. That is, they plan a classic lose-lose ‘solution’ for the shortage of water.
1429
‘LOWEST FOOD SUPPLIES IN 50 OR 100 YEARS: GLOBAL FOOD CRISIS
EMERGING’ USDA,May 11, 2007
< http://www.vunet.org/progressive/1179931266-
LOWEST_FOOD_SUPPLIES_IN_50_OR_10 >
SASKATOON, Sask. - Today, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its first projections of world grain supply and demand for the coming crop year:
2007/08. USDA predicts supplies will plunge to a 53-day equivalent-their lowest level in the 47-year period for which data exists.’ ‘Qualman said that the converging problems of natural gas and fertilizer constraints, intensifying water shortages, climate change, farmland loss and degradation, population increases, the proliferation of livestock feeding, and an increasing push to divert food supplies into biofuels means that we are in the opening phase of an intensifying food shortage.’ The explosive growth of food production seems to be drawing to a dramatic close.
1430
Called the Green Revolution misleadingly. The article below indicates one of the problems it has generated. ‘The war on weeds’ Reporter: Prue Adams. First Published:
20/05/2007 http://www.abc.net.au/landline/content/2006/s1926593.htm
’SALLY SARA, PRESENTER: Ask just about any farmer and they'll tell you that after drought, weeds are their worst enemy. Two separate reports reveal that invasive plants cost Australia around $4 billion a year in control and lost production. But a national research program focused on reducing the impact of weeds is about to be wound down.
Prue Adams reports on the work and the fate of the Cooperative Research Centre for
Australian Weed Management.’ This article describes the impact of invasive and native weeds on agriculture and the efforts being made to combat this severe impact on productivity. It is another example of how the explosive growth of society has created a
468

problem of relating with the natural environment. That is, it has contributed to entropic growth. Some of the remaining natural bounty has to be used in ameliorating its impact.
1431
It is too dependent on fossil fuels for all components in the food production chain from soil preparation to home storage and use, often far away.
1432
There are quite a few cities, especially in Asia, where the air quality can be very harmful to human health.
1433
The tortilla is the basic food for the Mexican poor. Its price has escalated recently due largely to the diversion of much of the U.S. corn crop to ethanol production to fuel SUV.
U.S. provides much of the white corn used in Mexico to make tortillas. This market force seems to have lost direction!
1434
Maude Barlow, an international water conservation campaigner, noted in an article in the Age of 19 th
January 2007 that water is increasingly being viewed as a commodity in many countries. This has resulted in privatizing for corporate profit while denying this essential to the many who cannot now afford it.
1435 ‘ Pollinators Help One-Third Of World Crop Production’
< http://www.terradai ly.com/reports/ Pollinators_ Help_One_ Third_Of_ World_Crop_
Production_999.html
> by Sarah Yang, Berkeley CA (SPX) Oct 27, 2006. ’Pollinators such as bees, birds and bats affect 35 percent of the world's crop production, increasing the output of 87 of the leading food crops worldwide, finds a new study published in the Proceedings of the
Royal Society B: Biological Sciences and co-authored by a conservation biologist at the
University of California, Berkeley. The study is the first global estimate of crop production that is reliant upon animal pollination. It comes one week after a National
Research Council (NRC) report detailed the troubling decline in populations of key North
American pollinators, which help spread the pollen needed for fertilization of such crops as fruits, vegetables, nuts, spices and oilseed. Of particular concern in the NRC report was the decline of the honey bee, a species introduced from Europe and a critical pollinator for California's almond industry.’ This item is illustrative of the dangers inherent in industrializing food production without understanding of the natural checks
469

and balances involved. Now we have over population as the result of this temporary agrobusiness!
1437
Garrett Hardin correctly points out in The Tragedy of the Commons http://dieoff. org/page95. htm the "right" to breed is considered sacrosanct, and therefore insistence upon retaining it insures that the bulk of humanity will have to be culled by the traditional methods - war, starvation, and disease. http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L13170507.htm
‘Climate change ups war risk in many states’13 Nov 2007, By Peter Apps LONDON,
Nov 13 (Reuters) - Climate change will put half the world's countries at risk of conflict or serious political instability, a report said on Tuesday, making the world more unstable unless nations and communities consider problems now. International Alert, a Londonbased conflict resolution group, identified 46 countries -- home to 2.7 billion people -- where it said the effects of climate change would create a high risk of violent conflict. It identified another 56 states where there was a risk of political instability.
1438 Many African and Asian countries.
1439
But the nature of the malaise varies appreciably globally.
1441 Using that abstraction money
1442
There are some who argue that a profound change is necessary while others argue that it is unlikely due to the nature of the beast. Only time will tell how quickly society responds to the developing crisis. It is highly unlikely that capitalists will lead the way.
1443
The U.S. is the most blatant example but they show very little signs of cutting back.
1445
An activity of the Brain.
1446
It is almost amusing how the city folk here in Australia tend to look down on the rural community because, until now, they have been able to take for granted that they can get adequate supplies of the basics so long as they have enough money. The feeling of superiority the city folk have will evaporate rapidly as the various crises cut down their supply of the essentials, including food, water and fuel from elsewhere.
1447
Heinberg pp26-27 but he does not mention the related social divergence. Marx pointed out how capitalism effectively divorces labor from the land. This has been so
470

successful, particularly in the ‘developed’ countries, that the provision of sustenance is very dependent on unsustainable synthetic methods.
1448
although the decline in the natural bounty will enforce it eventually. People have to get sustenance!
1449
Largely because we have cheap energy slaves – for now. Farmers and the like will quickly go up this societal scale as the crisis develops.
1451
For those prepared to look.
1452
There are emerging scientific views that the decline of the Mayan and Chinese Tang civilizations around the tenth century was partially due to natural climate change. These views will doubtless be taken into consideration in plans to mitigate the impact of the emerging climate change. That will be a convenient way of not facing up to the holistic predicament, the rapid reduction in the remaining natural bounty.
1454
'We should be scared stiff' Renowned scientist James Lovelock thinks mainland
Europe will soon be desert - and millions of people will start moving north to Britain.
Stuart Jeffries talks to him Thursday March 15, 2007< http://www.guardian.co.uk
>The
Guardian
1456 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118134633403829656.html
’A
Brief History of Economic Time’ By STEVEN LANDSBURG
June 9, 2007. This article helps to clear up the mystery. He discusses the role of ideas, innovation, technology and money in the rapid development of civilization in recent centuries. He does not mention that this build up has been achieved by invariably using natural resources. He does not mention that this build up cannot continue because some of these natural resources are becoming very scarce. He does not mention that this build up is at the cost of devastation of the environment. So he helps to solve the mystery.
There are many seemingly knowledgeable people that believe this type of ridiculous dogma.
1457 So brought up to believe in the power of intangible money even though their bodies have to face up to tangible realities.
471

1458 As noted, GDP is not a sound indicator of what is worthwhile.
The GDP counts pollution three times: first when it is made, second when it is cleaned up and third when healthcare professionals treat pollution-related health problems. An organization called Redefining
Progress developed an alternative economic progress measurement, the GPI (Genuine Progress
Indicator). GPI takes into account 24 aspects of economic life that the standard GDP (Gross
Domestic Product) ignores. The GPI adds value for such activities as housework and volunteerism, and subtracts for the costs of such problems as crime, car accidents and family breakdown – but not all the eco costs!
1459
1460
According to the Paris-based International Energy Agency, the world will require 120 million barrels per day by 2030 compared to 85 mln currently http://www.forbes. com/markets/ feeds/afx/ 2007/06/11/ afx3808049. html
It is quite likely that many in government and Big Business believe this prediction because of the source. There are, however, many with appreciable knowledge of the state of exploration and exploitation of the major fields who provide contrary advice. I have followed this debate for years and expect that oil extraction in 2030 will be well down on the current value.
1461
There are signs of the engine companies developing replacement fuels using coal and biomass. This will take appreciable time to implement to a significant extent. This fuel problem should be coupled with a drop in demand due to policies to reduce airliner GHG emissions and due to the foreseeable global recession.
1463
Alternet, Headlines Newsletter,
January 23rd, 2008. ‘Going Bankrupt: Why the
Debt Crisis Is America's Greatest Threat’ By Chalmers Johnson,
Tomdispatch.com
’Welcome to 2008, a year of morally obscene, fiscally unsustainable spending.
Watch as the military bloats and our standard of living sinks.’ This article provides information on the growing spending on developing and maintaining the
472

American military machine at the expense of the economy for no clearly worthwhile purpose.
1464
Except by those in the industrial/military complex who gain financially.
1465
Doubtless it is because money has the ability to outweigh common sense! The precautionary principle is forgotten.
1466
It is probably because the innovators have a sense of being clever and get paid accordingly because of misunderstanding of the eco cost involved.
1467 There are many chemical products that pamper the vanity of humans at the expense of producing toxic wastes that harm human health, a very negative outcome.
1469 "The deployment of the first armed battlefield robots in Iraq is the latest step on a dangerous path - we are sleepwalking into a brave new world where robots decide who, where and when to kill. Already, South Korea and Israel are deploying armed robot border guards and China,
Singapore and the UK are among those making increasing use of military robots. The biggest player yet is the US: robots are integral to its $230bn future combat systems project, a massive plan to develop unmanned vehicles that can strike from the air, under the sea and on land. Congress has set a goal of having one-third of ground combat vehicles unmanned by 2015. Over 4,000 robots are serving in Iraq at present, others in
Afghanistan. And now they are armed." http://www.guardian .co.uk/armstrade /story/0, ,2151357, 00.html
This trend illustrates how myopic society is. The intention is to minimize battle field casualties by using robots. Humans are naturally replaceable while the robots are made from irreplaceable natural resources. This trend to replace a sustainable mechanism by an unsustainable one will only accelerate the demise of civilization.
1470 http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/08/01/news/transport.php?page=1
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provides details of the ineffective measures that have contributed greatly to this problem in recent decades.
1471
They are doing their best to ameliorate that problem by fostering biofuels at the expense of operations in the undeveloped countries. This is coupled with efforts to control supplies of oil from the producing countries, including Russia.
1472 http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article3226421.ece
Bali Conference: Diplomats warned that climate change is security issue, not a green dilemma. ’By Daniel Howden, Deputy Foreign Editor, 06 December 2007.’Foreign policy-makers are waking up to the impact of climate change on conflict zones worldwide, and will add their voice to those calling on governments at the UN conference in Bali to act urgently.’ It is fascinating that these apparently knowledgeable people believe that action ordained by governments can have an appreciable impact on the irreversible climate change that irresponsible actions by governments has fostered.
1473
If governments and business can wake up to how crucial their legacy will depend on real global action quickly
1475
Partly by preying on undeveloped countries
1477 Hard as they try, they cannot spend their dollars faster than they accumulate by unfair means!
1478 But do not thank them for their benevolence to the ecosystem!
1480
often by flora and fauna
1481 there is a growing amount of evidence of the widespread damaging impact of the multitude forms of pollution. Some remedial action has taken place in rich countries but that only tends to hide the scale of this rapidly growing predicament.
1482 There has been appreciable argument amongst knowledgeable people for decades about when global oil supply will no longer be able to meet demand.
1483
From the NY Times, November 28, 2007 ‘Google's Next Frontier: Renewable
Energy’ www.nytimes. com/2007/ 11/28/technology /28google. html?ex=13539060
00&en=b59fc35a67 98cbd3&ei= 5088
By BRAD STONE, SAN FRANCISCO, Nov. 27 — ‘Google, the Internet company with a seemingly limitless source of revenue, plans to get into the business of finding limitless
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sources of energy.’ It is doubtful that the technical people behind Google believe that
‘limitless’ sources of energy can be found because they would have an understanding of physics. This type of article, however, is misleading the non-technical into believing new energy sources are possible.
1484 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/09/business/worldbusiness/09polar.html
‘A Quest for Energy in the Globe’s Remote Places’ By JAD MOUAWAD,
HAMMERFEST, Norway — ‘For a quarter-century, energy executives were tantalized by vast quantities of natural gas in one of the world’s least hospitable places — 90 miles off Norway’s northern coast, beneath the Arctic Ocean.’ This article describes the desperate efforts of energy businesses to exploit some of the remaining exhaustible natural gas. It illustrates the sheer stupidity of using this natural capital for generally wasteful purposes due to money being the driving force.
1485
while building up the ability of a few to enhance their preying.
1486
For most of society
1488
Gaia is a name that has been given by Lovelock to the gigantic super organism that is the natural ecosystem here on Earth. It encompasses all creatures great and small, including us, whales and microbes, and their life-support systems, including the forests and the rivers, the mountains and the oceans.
Huge study gives wake-up call on state of world's oceans. Human activity damages more than 40% of sea. http://tinyurl. com/2w9e7r
A global map of the overall impact that 17 different human activities are having on marine ecosystems. Insets show three of the most heavily impacted areas in the world, and one of the least impacted areas. Fishing, climate change and pollution have left an indelible mark on virtually all of the world's oceans, according to a huge study that has mapped the total human impact on the seas for the first time.
Scientists found that almost no areas have been left pristine and more than 40% of the world's oceans have been heavily affected.
1489
Who should really be called ‘Homo rapiens’!
1490
which has really got out of control this century.
1492
A fundamental fact is that there is elite in every country, every state and every community who make the decisions that dominate the operation of that community. The
475

masses, the proletariat, make do as best they can in the existing circumstances, often blinded by hype.
1493
Which has now got out of control with monetization being overwhelmed by speculation with leverage, hedge funds and cheap credit. This does not directly cause an increase in the rate of draw down of natural bounty but it does encourage the artificially wealthy to splurge on stuff.
1494
The reality is that money is an abstraction invented by humans. We cannot breathe money, nor drink it. We cannot put it into the tank of our car. It is not involved in the ecological operations of society. It does, however, play a major part in deciding which operations are carried out. The distinction between the decision to activate an operation and the principles governing how the operation unfolds is a crucial element in this essay.
1495
I often wonder how politicians feel in their dotage when they realize what they could have done when they were in power to minimize the damage to the ecosystem. It is pleasing to see that Al Gore and Mikhail Gorborchev are using their renown to promote a more realistic look at what is happening. Gore’s documentary ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ is awakening people to the reality of climate change. It is ironical that Fidel Castro has been able to turn the sudden loss of resources imports around to such an extent that Cuba serves as a model for what can be achieved with less. This could only be done by regulation because capitalism is inherently aimed at devastating the ecosystem to sate the wants of some of one species.
1496
The financial costing mechanism in place does not represent true cost in a sensible fashion due to distortions. The costing used here is a concept easy to understand even though the quantification mechanism does not exist. It is the lifetime cost of using natural resources and abusing the ecosystem. It is the cost of irreversibly degrading Gaia. It is termed the eco cost in this essay. It is an element in the rate of natural capital depreciation. The important point is that it is un-repayable. The reason that this is so is established in the following chapters.
1497
Many people, especially in the developed countries, argue that they are doing nothing wrong. I believe, however, that if they were asked a series of penetrating questions on how their activities impact on the operation of the ecosystem they would be most uneasy.
476

They would have to accept they are running up an eco debt they cannot repay. They would appreciate, for example, that their cars destroy a resource that it took nature eons to produce while contributing to a climate change that will affect the ecosystem for eons into the future.
1498
Economics is a mind game played exclusively by humans. It has a tremendous influence on the decisions that humans make about using natural resources to operate the
Body of civilization. It presumes, falsely, that society is free to use these resources without having to pay a price. This presumption is consistent with the relatively modern view that nature is there for human use and abuse.
1499
It helps to appreciate this point to consider what happened to Enron. The life savings of thousands of employees went up in smoke almost overnight due to the malfeasance of a few at the top. We know only too well what can happen to dollars. The same cannot happen to oil, no matter how hard we try! We cannot create it and we cannot stop it from burning when ignited in air.
1500
The economists are thinking here in terms of dollar values of the capital that is needed to enable production. The produced capital often is the profit from the production process. It has no material substance. The natural capital does. It consists of fossil fuels, raw materials, fertile soil, aquifer water and the like. Civilization illogically draws down on this natural capital without considering future consequences, like the inevitable running out!
1501
Ecological economics seeks to establish the impact of ecological constraints on the economic production. This is a typically anthropocentric approach that tends to assign a priority to the production process rather than to the impact of this process on the ecosystem properties. Cleveland provides a summary of the development of this field and the view that has evolved.
1502
To the satisfaction of the conventional economists and those who gain from business as usual!
1503
I would guess that less than 1% of the educated global community has the incentive, time and knowledge to delve into ecological economics. They are content to pursue their own interests. They do not want to rock the boat and cannot see the leak!
477

1504 It takes the view that prices will ensure demand matches supply. The limitations of that view are illustrated by the falling global supply of fresh water (a fairly important resource!) as the demand escalates because of population growth. Money is no substitute for water!
1505
It used to be primarily a measure of the value of goods and services but it now has a life of it own. Investment (of money) has become the most popular Mind game amongst the elite and the emerging middle class. It is like the Titanic first class passengers enjoying the evening entertainment as the iceberg looms up ahead.
1506
We manage to misinterpret epistemology by concentrating on what we know we know rather than including what we know we do not know.
1507
Rather than natural forces
1508
we have a culture that endeavors to motivate the young to achieve their potential without teaching them the (ecological) rules!
1509
Whilst abrogating any responsibility to look after Gaia
1510
I differentiate between energy and material resources here to follow the conventional view. Later, I show that this separation has led to widespread misunderstanding. "The life contest is primarily a competition for available energy."Ludwig Boltzman, Physicist
(1886) Der zweite Hauptsatz der Mechanischen Waermetheorie, 1886 (Georold, Vienna) p. 210."Energy determines what you can do, and often what you will do." Fredric
Cottrell, Energy and Society (1955) are just two quoted works that foster this misunderstanding. Energy does drive all operations of material substances but it can cause gross misunderstanding to concentrate on the operation at the expense of ignoring the state of the material. For example, coal burning does provide energy, but it also gives the material wastes that are causing so many predicaments.
1511
Quite a few commentators regard the economy as a pyramid scheme based on nothing more than faith in its growth potential. I believe there is very sound basis for that assertion. It is quite likely that the global economy will crash in the near future due to the combination of a number of failings in the underlying operations. The Mind will go crazy due to failing Bodily health, topped off by growth delusions of the Tumor.
478

1512 In mind-boggling overload
1513
The explosive growth in information technology and the money markets have been two features of the early parts of the 21 st
Century. The irony is that the material foundations have declined very rapidly at the same time. The information and money are both abstractions so are not involved in what actually happens in the foundations!
1514
They have been shown on TV what goods they should aspire to have!
1515
‘Diet for a Hot Planet’ by Daniel Nepstad, Boston Globe, November 22, 2006
‘Thirty-five years ago, Frances Moore Lappé's revolutionary cookbook "Diet for a Small
Planet" warned of the dire consequences of a growing taste for meat. For example, it takes up to 16 times more farmland to sustain people on a diet of animal protein than on a diet of plant protein. As US, European, and Asian farmers run out of land for crop expansion, her warning rings prophetic. The emerging meat-eaters of the emerging economies -- especially China -- are driving industrial agriculture into the tropical forests of South America, sending greenhouse gases skyward in a dangerous new linkage between the palate and the warming of the planet.’ An editorial of the New York Time that comments the "Livestock Long Shadow" FAO report. The editorial author mentions, from the report, that livestock occupies now 30% of all land surface of the planet. This is not the best way to say it. We must stress that livestock squanders SEVENTY percent of all agricultural land of the planet. We, the humans, are left a mere 30% for every other agro-economical activity. As most of the grain production in the world end as feed for animals in rich countries, we have to acknowledge that around 80% of all available agricultural land is WASTED in a extremely inefficient energetic conversion of feed and pasture in food for wealthy, highly ignorant and very egotistical human beings in most countries of the world, even for wealthy minorities in the poor countries.
1516 The conventional terminology in academic discussions is ‘goods and services’. ‘stuff’ is used here because these are most often nowadays ‘wants’ rather than ‘needs’. It is synonymous with the consumptive society.
1517 These are the capabilities to provide the goods and services for the operation of society. They range from arable land and potable water supplies to means of
479

transportation and provision of electricity. They include the houses and the skyscrapers, the roads and the runways, the heaters and the air-conditioners.
1518
The increasing need for repair to the highway, electricity transmission and city sewerage systems in the U.S. is an example of where infrastructure is given insufficient support. According to the Department of Energy, 70 percent of U.S. transmission lines are 25 years or older, 70 percent of power transformers are 25 years or older, and 60 percent of circuit breakers are more than 30 years old. And they are showing their age.
The horrendous water supply and sewerage predicaments in India is another, albeit bad, example. Australia, the dry country, has now been forced by climate change to wake up to the need to put in place better measures to use the limited supply of water!
1519
They may be armed with time for thought but not with those exosomatic weapons, power and money.
1520
Many rapidly expanding cities are faced with developing water supply crises, often compounded by drought brought on by climate change. This predicament often vies with the waste disposal one.
1521 ‘order’ is a technical term synonymous with the intuitive meaning.
1522 ‘disorder’ is, as you would expect, the antithesis of ‘order’. The tendency of human installed operations to produce disorder in the ecosystem is a central theme in the following. The associated produced order of the Body seems to have now peaked in many regions, especially in cities. The entropy of the Body is now growing.
1523
Lovelock’s hypothesis is that Earth’s ecosystem is a gigantic organism, called Gaia.
Cleveland calls it the ecosystem. The important point is the interdependence between the living and the non-living. The adaptation of many species to climate change illustrates its significance.
1524
A small minority as yet
1525
that can be regarded as the irreversible entropic growth of Gaia in contrast with down and up of the entropy of the Body.
1526
especially the Internet
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1527 This is not to presume that they do not have an intuitive understanding of the nature of the predicament. It is to their advantage, however, to foster business as usual as long as they can. They do not want to upset their apple cart.
1528
Unfortunately it is quite common for seemingly authoritative scientists to present their personal and wildly prejudiced views to the public. This tends to reduce widespread understanding of the subject in many cases.
1529
But their warnings are often discounted by the powerful if they are contrary to business as usual.
1530
This is where most of the funding and publicity lies.
1531
Energy | 21.01.2007. ‘Wood Could Be German Answer to Soaring Energy Prices.
Back to the roots on energy? Germany is one of Europe's most densely forested countries, and soaring oil and gas prices are leading more households to switch to modern woodburning heating systems, Germany's forest owners' association says.’ This article notes that using the wood for fuel would be carbon neutral. This is a common topic today.
However, it ignores the question of what that policy would do to soil fertility.
1532
Suppose a combination of measures over the next ten years stabilized the population, reduced industrial energy consumption per capita appreciably and also reduced the proportion of energy supply coming from fossil fuels. That would mean that the emission of greenhouse gases would be markedly reduced so the rise in level would have slowed.
The proponents of these measures would doubtless be proud of their achievements. And it would be a major advance. Now let us look at the reality. It would have slowed the rate of using natural capital down. It would also have slowed entropy growth down. That is good but entropy would still be increasing: the geobiospherical structure would still be declining. If no measures have been put into place to partially remedy declining soil fertility and decreasing water availability, Liebig’s Law could well make one of these factors pre-eminent. Climate change would also be contributing to entropy growth for mitigation, augmented by the resources consumed in the necessary adaptation. Suppose that insolation harnessing, nuclear fission and gas hydrates were to make so much more industrial energy available that desalination became a worthwhile means of alleviating
481

the water supply predicament. That would be seen to be a major advance but it would not be changing the situation in principle. It could, however, extend the time scale for further, wiser adaptation.
1533
Natural laws are statements devised by humans to describe some aspects of how natural systems operate. They incorporate aspects of our knowledge of behavior of the very complex operations that have evolved. They are immutable laws unveiled by science and they have made a major contribution to the technological advances of industrialized society. Belief that we have good understanding of how nature operates has led to unintended consequences of many of our inventions. The First and Second Laws of
Thermodynamics are used here because of their relevance to some of the issues. They are quoted so often in discussing the role of energy in the operations of our civilization that the impression can be gained that they control these operations. They do not. They are descriptions of some aspects of very complex operations.
1534
An axiom is a self evident proposition not requiring a proof.
1535
This is no condemnation of the contributions of the likes of Shakespeare and countless others to the development of human culture. It is simply commenting on the failure to adequately address the health of the Body of civilization.
1536 Ironically, warnings have been sounded out, and ignored, for millennia. Malthus http://www.blupete.com/Literature/Biographies/Philosophy/Malthus.htm
spoke out three centuries ago and he has been often impugned. Yet his basic message, too many people consuming too much, is hitting home now.
1537
It is absolutely incredible that world leaders cannot see that supporting economic growth in developed countries is aiding the unnecessary decimation of the ecosystem.
The only rational conclusion is that they have been collectively misled. They, of course, live in a protected environment!
1539 There has been some recognition in developed countries of some of the dangers of pollution and even some effective action.
1540
75% of Americans say the government should put restrictions on emissions from cars and industrial facilities to reduce global warming ; 21% say no. CNN Opinion research corp. These figures highlight the misunderstanding in the community about global
482

warming. Global warming is an irreversible process. The best remedial measures can do is slow it down. The misunderstanding amongst the populace is understandable because the reality has not been spelt out by the knowledgeable and the media.
1541
It seems that the bean counters in business just cannot understand biological and geological limits to natural resources. They should drink a glass of water!
1542
In the broad sense so it includes resources obtained from deep underground, like oil, iron ore, aquifer water. It also includes what happens deep in the oceans even though we may not be aware of them.
1543
The environment consists of mountains and cities, forests and toxic waste dumps, kangaroos and people.
1544
The conventional view is that the monetary cost is the deciding factor, with distortions like not having to pay for externalities, being ignored. This is misleading, as these externalities are contributors to the eco cost.
1545
This should not be taken to be a condemnation of business. They basically operate within the existing rules. It is not their fault that society has deemed it acceptable to freely use irreplaceable natural resources without consideration of the future consequences. It is not their fault that society does not hold them responsible for the damage the goods they produce do to the environment. They know that society expects them to chase the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow - regardless of the consequences for society now and in the future.
1546
People will continue to consume ‘stuff’ whilst they can continue to take the basics for granted. They fail to realize the party is over and others are already paying the price.
1547
I suppose it can be argued that it enables a number of people to acquire some sense of achievement, even if they are blind to the fact that they are doing harm to the ecosystem.
1548
This is not to imply that money will have a lesser role in the operation of future society but it is to be hoped that the monetary cost of goods and services will more accurately reflect the true cost, the eco cost of the natural capital used plus the contribution of human expertise and skill.
1550
Investment return, profit and other financial detail do not change this principle.
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1551 For now. The necessary replacement in due course enters the thoughts of only the planners.
1553
That's exactly what happened a few years ago when we learned that E. coli from cattle faeces was winding up in American hamburgers. Rather than clean up the kill floor and the feedlot diet, some meat processors simply started nuking the meat — sterilizing the manure, in other words, rather than removing it from our food. Why? Because it's easier to find a technological fix than to address the root cause of such a predicament.
This has always been the genius of industrial capitalism — to take its failings and turn them into exciting new business opportunities, regardless of the cost to the community or its foundation, the ecosystem.
1554
we laud the good and sweep the bad under the carpet!
1555
Some people will take exception to suggesting that technology was to blame.
Doubtless they would prefer to take the view that science and technology has provided us with the means to unwisely use natural resources.
1556
The belief in ‘solutions’ is one of the most harmful illusions held by society. It encourages the belief that technology will provide the answers and forget that previous advances have caused unexpected predicaments. Remember Eric Sevareid's Law: The chief cause of problems is solutions.
1557 A panel of industrial energy experts called on industry and the U.S. government to rapidly embrace technologies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including renewable industrial energy, industrial energy efficiency and carbon sequestration. The Technology
Review's Emerging Technologies Conference at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology hosted a panel titled "Innovation and the Industrial energy Crisis," where speakers cast global warming as an urgent predicament. This shows an amazing misperception amongst people you would expect to know better. They get it right by seeing global warming as a predicament but seem to forget that it is a predicament caused by extracting industrial energy from fossil fuels by using technology that produced unintended consequences. They then want to modify this technology so it produces fewer emissions. That is, learn from those past mistakes. That is good. However, they do not seem to understand that this would only slow global warming down. They cannot correct
484

what those past faults have caused. The fossil fuel burning has put in train an irreversible process, climate change. Improved technology can only contribute to slowing it down.
1558
If that can be dug out of the rhetoric!
1559
There is really very little scope for technology to substitute for natural processes despite numerous efforts to do so. That is, however, plenty of scope for technological
improvements of existing methods ( technofix es) for using natural resources. For
example, geosequestration could possibly enable coal-fired power plants to generate electricity with a smaller impact on global warming. Technology could well enable
remedial action ( technofix es) on many unintended consequences of past imprudent
implementations of technology (technobubbles).
1560
There are two ways of looking at technological proposals to tackle a perceived problem. The conventional, business approach is to assess whether it is sufficiently sound to justify the capital investment in the expectation of a downstream profit, possibly combined with consideration of its environmental impact. The realistic way to look at the proposal is to assess whether its impact on the problem is worth the irrecoverable eco cost, including environmental impact.
1561
There is appreciable debate, particularly in the U.S., about what sort of car will replace the gas-guzzling SUVs as the scarcity of oil hits home. This belief in a technobubble is inhibiting the acceptance that the love affair with the car is nearly over for most people.
1563 Published on Wednesday, November 22, 2006 by Minutemanmedia.org
12-Step Plan for Climate Action by Alisa Gravitz provides a sound basis to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by a wide range of activities. It is questionable, however, if these will be sufficient alone. This is but one of many sound proposals that can be found by those prepared to look. PMs and CEOs, of course, are too busy to look!
1564
Campbell, Catton, Club of Rome, Dawkins, Duncan, Heinberg, Klare, Youngquist,
Hansen and more to come.
Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary
Change by William J. Catton, Jr
1565
A Lowry Institute research paper ‘Heating up the planet’ (discussed in Business Age of 3 Oct) calls for Australia to adapt to the predicted consequences of climate change. It
485

is good to see more emphasis being placed on adaptation policy. The slowing down of climate change by reducing emissions has appeared to dominate discussions to date, even though based on a misleading premise. The reality is that Australian emissions have had negligible effect on climate change. We should have policies that aim to adapt to what the industrialized North has instigated and the Asian giants are now fostering. We, like many other countries, have to accept that we are victims of the unintended consequences of fossil fuel burning by the industrialized giants.
1566
"If there ever is a time of plenty, this very fact will automatically lead to an increase in the population until the natural state of starvation and misery is restored." – Dawkins.
This has already occurred in parts of Africa and will doubtless expand as the food supply declines. There are many who believe that we have to make do with the current population because they can see no way of encouraging a decline. This is a typical anthropogenic view. It ignores the simple reality that there are not the natural resources to continue to support this population. A die off will be the unintended consequence. There are the isolated views that have this predicament in perspective. For example ‘Earth is too crowded for Utopia’ VIEWPOINT of
Chris Rapley The global population is higher than the Earth can sustain, argues the Director of the British Antarctic Survey in the first of a series of environmental opinion pieces on the BBC News website entitled The Green
Room. Solving environmental problems such as climate change is going to be impossible without tackling the issue, he says. Although reducing human emissions to the atmosphere is undoubtedly of critical importance, as are any and all measures to reduce the human environmental "footprint", the truth is that the contribution of each individual cannot be reduced to zero. Only the lack of the individual can bring it down to nothing.
So if we believe that the size of the human "footprint" is a serious predicament (and there is much evidence for this) then a rational view would be that along with a raft of measures to reduce the footprint per person, the issue of population management must be addressed.
1567 ‘Muslim ulemas to help govt steer family planning’ by Desy Nurhayati, Jakarta Post
(Indonesia), July 03, 2007. ‘The National Family Planning Coordinating Board
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(BKKBN) is drafting a handbook for Muslim leaders to guide them in disseminating the government's family planning program to the people. The "Reproductive Health
Information, Education and Communication for Ulemas" handbook is the result of an international conference of Muslim leaders held in Bali in February to discuss population and reproductive health issues.’ This is one of the few signs of authorities addressing this crucial issue.
1568
Catton, William. ‘Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change’
‘World hits annual sustainable resource “overshoot"’ by Jeremy Lovell
LONDON (Reuters) - The world went into the ecological red on Monday -- meaning that for the rest of the year mankind will be living beyond its environmental means, scientists said. Ecological Debt Day or Overshoot Day, measures the point at which the consumption of resources exceeds the ability of the planet to replace them -- and it gets earlier every year. Remarkably, it ignores the fact that many of these resources, like the fossil fuels and many minerals, are irreplaceable.
This is very misleading as some resources, like the fossil fuels, cannot be replaced.
1569 ‘Carrying capacity is the maximum population load that is able to be supported by its environment on an ongoing basis’ (Heinberg p15) causes much misunderstanding.
Industrial civilization is very dependent on the use of oil at a high rate. That is a major contribution to the ‘ongoing basis’. As oil becomes scarce (there is plenty of evidence to support the assertion that it is happening now), the rate of oil usage will decline, so the carrying capacity. There is feverish activity to find substitutes for oil but Liebig’s Law of the Minimum (Heinberg p15) ensures oil will continue to play a dominating role in the near future. This Law is generally applied to indicate which factor limits growth.
However, it can equally well apply to those consumption factors that limit operation. As natural bounty capital is being irreversibly drawn down, so must the carrying capacity.
1570
Biodiversity suffers when the planet's biocapacity cannot keep pace with human consumption and exacerbating waste generation. The Ecological Footprint tracks this in
487

terms of the area of biologically productive land and water needed to provide ecological resources and services – food, fibre, and timber, land on which to build, and land to absorb carbon dioxide (CO
2
) released by burning fossil fuels. The Earth’s biocapacity is the amount of biologically productive area – cropland, pasture, forest, and fisheries – that is available to meet humanity’s needs. Since the late 1980s, we have been in overshoot – the Ecological Footprint has exceeded the Earth’s biocapacity – as of 2003 by about 25%.
Effectively, the Earth’s regenerative capacity can no longer keep up with demand – people are turning resources into exacerbating waste faster than nature can turn waste back into resources. Humanity is no longer living off nature’s interest, but drawing down its capital. This growing pressure on ecosystems is causing habitat destruction or degradation and permanent loss of productivity, threatening both biodiversity and human well-being. Note that the ecological footprint covers only part of the holistic predicament.
It does not take into account the draw down of natural capital due to the extraction of raw materials, other than the fossil fuels, nor the erosion of soils.
1571
Published on Tuesday, October 24, 2006 by Reuters
Humans Living Far Beyond Planet's Means: WWF by Ben Blanchard. BEIJING - Humans are stripping nature at an unprecedented rate and will need two planets' worth of natural resources every year by 2050 on current trends, the WWF conservation group said on Tuesday. Populations of many species, from fish to mammals, had fallen by about a third from 1970 to 2003 largely because of human threats such as pollution, clearing of forests and overfishing, the group also said in a two-yearly report."For more than 20 years we have exceeded the earth's ability to support a consumptive lifestyle that is unsustainable and we cannot afford to continue down this path," WWF Director-General James Leape said, launching the WWF's 2006 Living
Planet Report.
1572
Ecological Footprint Standards 1.0. http://www.footprintstandards.org.
1573
This reference serves as a reminder that oil is used for much more than a fuel. http://www.anwr.org/features/oiluses.htm
Products Made From Oil. This list should be referred for emphasizing the importance of oil. How much industrial energy is required to
488

make plastic s using coal? Building long chain polymers from scratch, rather than reducing long chain polymers to short chain reactive ones, has got to take some industrial energy. Wouldn't 10% of our oil be equivalent to something like 60% of our coal?
1574
From the NY Times, December 22, 2006, ‘Study Suggests Incentives on Oil Barely
Help U.S.’
By EDMUND L. ANDREWS, WASHINGTON, Dec. 21 — The United States offers some of the most lucrative incentives in the world to companies that drill for oil in publicly owned coastal waters, but a newly released study suggests that the government is getting very little for its money. The study, which the Interior Department refused to release for more than a year, estimates that current inducements could allow drilling companies in the Gulf of Mexico to escape tens of billions of dollars in royalties that they would otherwise pay the government for oil and gas produced in areas that belong to American taxpayers. But the study predicts that the inducements would cause only a tiny increase in production even if they were offered without some of the limitations now in place. It also suggests that the cost of that additional oil could be as much as $80 a barrel, far more than the government would have to pay if it simply bought the oil on its own.’ This article indicates just one sign of the fact that the easy oil has been extracted and the oil companies are dubious about committing themselves to activities of doubtful profitability, despite rising oil prices.
1575
world grain production has fallen short of demand in five of the past six years, so stocks have fallen dramatically. This fall is partly due to wide spread droughts but switching corn production in the U.S. from food to ethanol has not helped. There is increasing evidence that climate change is having a major impact that will grow rapidly.
Diseases could also have a major impact, as explained in this article. http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,2063079,00.html
Millions face famine as crop disease rages. Scientists say wheat blight that ravaged
Africa is set on a course for Asia. Robin McKie and Xan Rice,Sunday April 22, 2007,The
Observer
1576
This term is also quite misleading as water supply issues generally involve regional population growth together with the use of resources for a complex water distribution
489

system. Australia is the dry country but water usage in agriculture, industry and homes has been extremely wasteful. It is ironical that the current long term drought, almost certainly a manifestation of climate change, is causing a major rethink of water usage practices. It is almost as though Mother Nature is sending a message! There are others regions having much greater water predicaments. This article from the NY Times,
September 29, 2006 ’In Teeming India, Water Crisis Means Dry Pipes and Foul Sludge’
By SOMINI SENGUPTA
NEW DELHI, Sept. 28 — The quest for water can drive a woman mad is almost unbelievable, but true. Another article ‘India Digs Deeper, but Wells Are Drying Up, and a Farming Crisis Looms’ by SOMINI SENGUPTA on September 30, 2006 http://tinyurl. com/kwmzj
They are, however, also examples of the interdependence of predicaments. The growth of the population is a major causative factor in India. For perspective, the United States is using up groundwater 25 percent FASTER than it is replenished. Source: Prof. David
Pimentel, Cornell University. ‘The Water Boom Is Over’ Posted October 10, 2006.
Global freshwater supplies could start to determine whether or not we can feed ourselves.
By George Monbiot. Published in the Guardian 10th October 2006 contains appreciable detail on aquifer depletion and climate change droughts that emphasizes the seriousness of this predicament.
1577 http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/06/26/opinion/edchellany.php
‘Averting water wars in Asia’ By Brahma Chellaney, June 26, 2007.NEW DELHI: The sharpening Asian competition over energy resources has obscured another danger: Water shortages in much of Asia are becoming a threat to rapid economic modernization.’ This article provides insight into the developing Asian rivers problem centred on possible diversion of snow melt from the Himalayas.
1578
It is ironical that there are many moves to make greater use of coal. These include the liquefaction of coal to yield a fuel that can partially replace the ones derived from the disappearing oil.
490

1579 On November 6th governments from all over the world will be meeting in Nairobi for the year's most important United Nations climate change talks. To date international policy discussions have largely ignored the destruction and burning of Southeast Asia's rainforest peatlands. These wet, swampy rainforests are drained to be cleared for agricultural plantations, and as they dry their peat filled soils are highly susceptible to long burning, carbon and methane rich fires. Peatland fires have for years been one of the largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions - accounting for the equivalent of some 15% of all global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.
1580
Building Solutions to Climate Change
< http://www.pewclima te.org/docUpload s/Buildings% 2DInBrief% 2Epdf >
Pew Center Report, November 2006. "Buildings are the single most important contributor to the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change. The built environment can make an important contribution to climate change mitigation while providing more livable spaces. With current technologies and the expansion of a few key policies, significant reductions in greenhouse gases can be realized in the near term. A combination of technology sustained climate and energy policies would drive more dramatic reductions over time." This is an example of an isolated move that should make a small contribution to mitigation of climate change. The title, however, manages to convey a false impression because there is no solution to climate change. It also contributes to the false idea that climate change is the only predicament.
1581
Kyoto Protocol and other moves. Al Gore has made a major contribution in fostering the debate about what should be done. Unfortunately he does not understand that the past fossil fuel emissions have irreversibly increased the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere. He is encouraging the U.S. to provide leadership in the fight to combat climate change. It would be most unfortunate if this led to the misdirection of scarce natural resources!! They would be better used in adapting to the consequences of climate change.
491

1582 How close is runaway climate change? In an extract from his new book on global warming, Paul Brown looks at how close the planet is to irreversible damage
Wednesday, 18 th October, 2006 Guardian Unlimited This is a typical anthropogenic view of the situation. The irreversible increasing global warming, so climate change, so damage was instigated by fossil fuel burning a century ago and is now out of control.
1583
The increasing level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and oceans are irreversible processes. Industrial processes, primarily fossil fuel burning, has installed the blanket around Earth.
1584
The Australian Greenhouse Office puts accent on the need for adaptation. IPCC devoted one of their documents to regional changes as a guide to adaptation policies to go with mitigation by reducing emissions.
1585
Rachel's Democracy & Health News #915, July 12, 2007 http://www.precaution.org/lib/07/prn_ufp.070719.htm
THE DEADLIEST AIR POLLUTION ISN'T BEING REGULATED OR EVEN
MEASURED. [Rachel's introduction: For 20 years, scientific and medical studies have been showing that the tiniest particles of airborne soot are by far the most dangerous ones. But the government has consistently refused to regulate or even measure these invisible killers. Now there is evidence that "stricter" government regulations are allowing the numbers of these particles to increase.] This article is one of a number that describe the atmospheric pollution in the
U.S. and the consequences. The situation is a lot worse in some other countries, particularly China.
1586
Tórshavn, Faroe Islands, Thursday, 24 May 2007. ’The Faroes statement: Human health effects of developmental exposure to environmental toxicants. Background. Fetal life and early infancy are periods of remarkable susceptibility to environmental hazards.
Toxic exposures to chemical pollutants during these windows of increased susceptibility can cause disease and disability in infants, children, and across the entire span of human life.’ This statement from specialists gives some indication of how chemical pollutants, a characteristic of modern society, may deleteriously affect the human health. It is another example of where our synthetic methods are devastating the natural ecosystem.
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1587 To protect their citizens from dangerous chemicals, the European Union, Japan, and other nations have tightened their environmental standards for hundreds of manufactured products in recent years. Meanwhile, the U.S. EPA hasn't restricted any industrial compounds since an unsuccessful attempt to ban asbestos 18 years ago, and Americans continue to be sold products that wouldn't pass muster in many other parts of the world -- wood, toys, electronics, and cosmetics containing chemicals that raise the risk of cancer, disrupt hormonal systems, or cause reproductive or neurological damage. Michael
Wilson, a professor of occupational and environmental health, says the U.S. has become a "dumping ground" for goods unwanted elsewhere. Take plywood, for example. Last year, China exported more than half a billion dollars worth of hardwood plywood to the
U.S., enough to build cabinets for 2 million kitchens; most of it was so heavily tainted with formaldehyde that it couldn't even legally be sold in China, let alone in Europe or
Japan. Air pollution is not tangible so the general populace is not all that concerned: there is confusion between pollutants and emissions. ‘Public Health: Slow Motion Disaster’ by
John Michael Greer Published on Thursday, October 19, 2006 by The Archdruid Report provides a sound statement on the impact of industrialization on human health and how this has been commercialized rather than tackled. * Testosterone levels dropping, research finds : Scientists cited a "substantial," unexplained drop in American men's testosterone levels in the past two decades. This is another possible result of pollution.
The evidence is mounting.
1588
permafrost melting at abnormal rates due to global warming in Siberia, Alaska and
Canada’s North are examples of geodiversity perturbations that may have dire consequences. Some indigenous villages built on permafrost centuries ago are now sinking! This melting is also having serious effects on agriculture in some regions.
1589
Wikipedia on biodiversity ’Elevated rates of extinction are being driven by human consumption of organic resources, especially related to tropical forest destruction. While most of the species that are becoming extinct are not food species, their biomass is converted into human food when their habitat is transformed into pasture, cropland, and orchards. It is estimated that more than 40% of the Earth's biomass is tied up in only the few species that represent humans, our livestock and crops. Because an ecosystem
493

decreases in stability as its species are made extinct, these studies warn that the global ecosystem is destined for collapse if it is further reduced in complexity.’
1590
The ecological takeover by human strategies has resulted in species extinctions for thousands of years (Heinberg pp20-22). However, the rate has increased extraordinarily in the past century. There is abundant evidence that this is due to the habit takeover of civilization or destruction due to human activities. Polar bears are in jeopardy due to climate change. Species extinction is another irreversible process.
1591
In specialized organizations, journals and Internet sites.
1592
A United Nations health official says the H5N1 avian flu pandemic remains a real threat to world health and trade. This is despite the vast amounts that have been committed to help fight the spread of the virus. A simulation in England brought out the vulnerabilities of society to such a pandemic. It would lead to a break down in many services in addition to causing a high death toll. There are a number of sources that suggest climate change will increase the likelihood of pandemics.
1593 http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2007/10/09/the-new-coal-age/
Published in the Guardian 9th October 2007.’The New Coal Age’ By George Monbiot.
‘A vast new opencast pit will ruin local people’s lives and wreck the government’s climate change policies. How was it allowed to happen?’ This article describes what is happening to a Welsh village as the result of the decision to open up a new coal mine. It is just one example of the irreversible disruption of social diversity in pursuit of economic growth.
1594 The hallucination that New York can continue to grow on dollars lives on.
1595 http://www.richardheinberg.com/
MuseLetter #177 / January 2007
‘Bridging Peak Oil and Climate Change Activism’
Richard Heinberg presents in this article a very well balanced view on the dilemma facing the prognosticators on both predicaments. It can be criticized, however, for two
494

reasons. Firstly, it suggests the aim should be to provide ‘solutions’ to both predicaments while envisaging continued economic growth of an increasing population. He does point out that there are too many consuming too much without putting much emphasis on this basic predicament. Secondly, he takes the view that these two predicaments are the dominant ones. He conveys the impression that if these are tackled then industrial civilization can roar on. Yet industrial civilization has produced a cultural view with a supporting material infrastructure that cannot be changed rapidly. He fails to convey the holistic view that civilization is rapidly and irrevocably drawing down on the limited natural bounty without even considering any means of slowing it down. He does not recognize the magnitude of the cultural change required.
1596
the degree depends to some extent on the region. Over population, peak food and peak water are the major predicaments in Africa. Climate change could well hit hard in parts of India and China (due to snow melt) as well as the Arctic and Pacific Islands people. Peak oil is bound to hit the U.S. and Australia because of their love affair with the car. A pandemic could have major impact in Asia. On the other hand, AIDS is hitting many regions. But these are all a matter of degree because of the interdependence.
1597
there can be appreciable uncertainty about the timing and extent of each of these symptoms but there is very little uncertainty about the collective symptoms, so diagnosis of the malaise inflicted on the Body of civilization by playing these Mind games.
1598 At Nairobi, governments debated the future of the Kyoto Protocol and action to prevent the most serious impacts of climate change. They ignored pleas to address one of the greatest single sources of carbon emissions: the destruction of South-east Asia's peatlands and forests. The annual emissions from annual peat and forest fires are about five times as great as the total annual emission cuts which the Kyoto Protocol aims to make by 2012, from 1990 levels. This illustrates the danger of concentrating on one issue rather than taking a systemic view of the holistic predicament.
1599 the delusory aspect of the bias towards economic aspects of this predicament is quite clear. The price of oil and the political and economic factors that are causing its current
495

upward trend and volatility dominates the discussion. This bias enables the impact of slowing of discoveries and the increasing difficulties of extraction to be largely ignored.
The lack of refineries in North America could well be an indicator of how the oil industry sees the future. ‘Study sees harmful hunt for extra oil’ by Carola Hoyos in London
February 18 2007 ‘All the world’s extra oil supply is likely to come from expensive and environmentally damaging unconventional sources within 15 years, according to a detailed study. This will mean increasing reliance on hard-to-develop sources of energy such as the Canadian oil sands and Venezuela’s Orinoco tar belt.’ This is a major example of the implications of net energy. It is also an indication of the difficulty in making do after peak entropic growth. The world's four greatest oil fields are in depletion
(Burgan [Kuwait], Daqing [China], Cantarell [Mexico], and Ghawar [Saudi Arabia]) and these have accounted for over 14 percent of the world's oil production. Shell went to
Sakhalin because it had to. World production has not been keeping up with skyrocketing demand. Indeed, total daily production among the major oil companies has declined for the past four years.
1600
BBC - US CO2 emissions 'violate rights' A delegation of Inuit has traveled to
Washington to argue that the US government's climate change policies violate human rights.
1601
Ian Dunlop, formerly an oil, gas and coal industry executive, discusses in the Sydney
Morning Herald what he considers to be the big three predicaments that are converging and will focus our attention: "We are about to experience the convergence of three of the great issues confronting humanity. Climate change, the peaking of oil supply and water shortage are coming together in a manner which will profoundly alter our way of life, our institutions and our ability to prosper on this planet.” It is unbelievable that a seemingly knowledgeable person cannot see that the basic predicament is that there are too many people after limited natural resources. As a consequence the natural capital is now depreciating at an unsustainable rate.
1602 Telusplanet view of the holistic predicament is ‘There are several major problems: conflicts and wars, no tolerance and compassion for one another, world overpopulation,
496

insufficient protection for global health, scarcity of resources and drinking water, poverty, and the destruction of the global life-support systems and the eco-systems of the planet.’
1603 http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/39698/story.htm
’EU to Urge "New Industrial Revolution" in Energy’, January 5, 2007. BRUSSELS -
The European Commission will call next week for "a new industrial revolution" in the energy sector to boost competition, protect the climate and ensure security of supply, a draft paper from the EU executive showed. This article shows that there is a powerful voice in the EU to make efforts to enhance the ability of the EU to draw down on the remaining natural bounty so to hell with future consequences. They show that they still embrace the global growth paradigm, despite its destructive ability. http://www.trecuk.org.uk/ SOLAR, NOT NUCLEAR’ This article shows that solar thermal is a proven technology that could well meet a lot of EU industrial energy needs by using the vast amount of insolation on the North African desert. The information provided suggests its worth has been reasonably assessed. It could assist the reduction in fossil fuel use required under Heinberg’s sustainability Axiom 4. That would be a minor mitigating action that should be in conjunction with slowing population growth and conservation.
Neither of the latter two is on the EU agenda!
1604
This terminology encourages the misleading view. Nearly all industrial energy usage is a draw down of irreplaceable natural capital. So how is it possible for even politicians to believe in security of supply?
1605
The fostering of biofuels in EU is encouraging de-forestation in Malaysia and elsewhere.
1606
like making biofuels at the expense, for others, of massive de-forestation in Malaysia so the palm oil can be produced.
1607 Which leads to more predicaments accompanied by a declining capability to cope with them.
497

1609 A malaria vaccination being funded by Bill Gates could reduce the deaths of children in Africa by one million per year. This humanitarian measure would only be beneficial if it were accompanied by many fewer births.
1610
As Edmund O. Wilson said "The raging monster upon the land is population growth.
In its presence, sustainability is but a fragile theoretical construct. To say, as many do, that the difficulties of nations are not due to people but to poor ideology and land-use management is sophistic."
1611
Societies are going to have to accept that they have a responsibility to limit population growth. This could well stem from voluntary decisions by the citizens, as seems to be occurring already in a number of industrialized countries, particularly Japan.
Ironically, the government there is trying to encourage increased family size. The same is happening in Australia.
1612
The irony is that attempting to combat the other predicaments will invariably call for the use of more industrial energy. This is one cogent example of where it would pay to weigh up the worth of the measure against the eco cost. For example, is the industrial energy required for desalination to provide potable water worthwhile for Sydney?
Deciding that question on the basis of monetary cost could well have unintended future consequences.
1613 Some companies are proposing to plant trees to earn carbon credits even though it will have no impact on climate change, especially as de-forestation is going on at an accelerating rate globally. That does help their ‘green image’ so their financial returns.
This example illustrates the need for greater awareness of what the reality is. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17435875/site/newsweek/
‘The Carbon Folly Policymakers have settled on 'emissions trading' as their favorite global-warming fix. But it isn't working. ’By Emily Flynn Vencat. Global warming isn't the only debate that may be over. Governments and policymakers around the world also seem to have settled on a solution. "A responsible approach to solving this crisis," Al
Gore said recently at New York University's Law School, would be "to authorize the trading of emissions... globally." Emissions trading, also called carbon trading, is being
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expanded in the European Union and Japan. And in many places where it's yet to take hold, like Sacramento, Sydney and Beijing, politicians are embracing it. Nicholas Stern, former chief economist of the World Bank and Europe's foremost political expert on global warming, predicts that the value of carbon credits in circulation, now about $28 billion, will climb to $40 billion by 2010. There is increasing opinion that this trading is being misused by business to increase their profits. Some worry that it is also diverting attention away from developing renewable energy technology.
1614 http://www.orionmagazine.org/index.php/articles/article/289
‘Low Life’ by Julia Whitty. Published in the May/June 2007 issue of Orion magazine.
For the past five years, the tiny South Pacific nation of Tuvalu, which at no point on its nine atolls is higher than thirteen feet above sea level, has openly discussed plans to file a lawsuit against the United States and Australia at the International Court of Justice in The
Hague.’ This article discusses the problems they have, apparently due to climate change.
U.S. and Australia are the heaviest emitters of GHG per capita.
1615 The rising sea level has been moderated to date by the increase in the amount of water being stored in dams. This moderation is unlikely to continue.
1616
Carteret Islands Evacuated Due to Rising Sea Level 30/09/2006 "I recently visited the
Carteret Islands, 100 km north east of Bougainville, having heard that they were suffering badly from rising seas caused by global warming. All 6 of the islands in the group are being badly damaged and the islands look like making history as the first atoll to be abandoned due to rising seas. Food crops have been destroyed, houses have been washed away and malaria is now the most common cause of children dying." said independent documentary film maker, Pip Starr, in a detailed report of what he saw when he visited the Carteret Islands Atoll.
1617 http://www.truthout.org/issues_06/070307HB.shtml
Asia-Pacific Countries See Effects of Climate Change on Health,
Brace for More’ By Margie Mason, The Associated Press, Tuesday 03 July 2007, Kuala
Lumpur, Malaysia - Officials from more than a dozen Asian countries met Tuesday in Malaysia to outline health problems their
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populations are facing in relation to a rise in global temperatures.
Officials discussed ways to work together to limit the fallout in a region expected to be hit hard by flooding, drought, heat waves, mosquito-borne diseases and waterborne illnesses.
1618
Even worse, it is conveying the impression that something is being done, so inhibiting other actions.
1619
Future generations will look back with askance at how we were able to emulate birds by developing airliners at an unforeseen cost that ensured aircraft would play a major role in the wasteful operations of society for a very limited period only, about my lifetime.
1620
There is increasing condemnation of government subsidies for road transport at the expense of the much more efficient rail and water transport.
1621
Transportation of food is bound to be very markedly reduced but the clear need for the rural areas to supply the cities will have a high priority.
1622
Shipping contributes more GHG than airlines whilst placing a very large demand on an exhaustible natural resource, iron ore, for the construction of thousands of container vessels. There is plenty of iron ore but a lot of natural bounty is used up in transforming it to steel for a short life in a ship.
1623 To the despair of the many, including the dolphins, who used enjoy the Bay’s wide range of relatively unharmed aquatic services.
1624 Globalization will increasingly become a dirty word as the resource rich countries fight off the plundering of the rich consuming countries. South American countries are combining to stop the ravages of the U.S.. Russia is discouraging Western oil companies in order to protect its bountiful oil and natural gas deposits.
1626
The proletariat has no other alternative than to tag along with their vision impaired by credit cards and the stuff they can buy. That is, if they are amongst the well off. The major concern for many billions is getting some food, clean water and some shelter.
1628
American Meteorological Society, 11/13/07 ’Climate Policy: from “know how” to
“do now”’ by Herman E. Daly. Here he argues persuasively for regressive taxation to encourage frugality and to limiting economic growth to what is ecologically affordable.
500

But his objective is to limit growth rather than face the reality that the available natural bounty is irreversibly declining.
1629
"Kill capitalism ... before it kills the planet" http://www.myspace.com/worldsocialism http://www.worldsocialism.org/index.php
’The Ecological Perspective. Current methods of production cause may undeniably be damaging the world's eco-systems in many ways, as shown elsewhere in this
Environment section. Still, the question remains as to whether human productive activity, transforming materials originating from nature into goods suitable for human use, is inevitably damaging in an ecological sense. The massive scale of human productive activity certainly has immense implications for ecology and some radical greens argue that human activity on such a scale is incompatible with a harmonious relationship with the rest of nature.’ I will not comment on the views of capitalism expressed in this article.
I refer to it because it discusses how a stable economy may possibly arise. To do this, it presumes that we will not run out of the non-renewable resources and that human activities will not harm the natural ecological balance. It has a very good discussion of the nature of this balance. However, its conclusion lacks credibility because of the two clearly erroneous presumptions. Civilization is irreversibly depreciating the limited natural capital is the reality.
1630
The main source of industrial energy, the fossil fuels, are exhaustible together with many raw materials and such important elements of the ecology as aquifer and ground water and fertile soil.
1631
A similar lack of understanding of speed and acceleration of events applies, as we see later, to global warming.
1633
Remember we are discussing the ecological operations objectively. What goes on in the Body of civilization and in Gaia. Cast aside society’s subjective views of these operations, what goes on in the Mind.
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1634 It is really inexplicable that these axioms and the Dependence on Nature Law are not common knowledge amongst the seemingly knowledgeable.
1635
The Consequence Axiom
1636
it makes no difference if they are natural systems or synthetic systems devised by humans, like those that generate electricity.
1637
The relation between industrial energy and material resources is clarified later
1638
that physical energy cannot be created or destroyed was established by Joule with a careful series of experiments
1639 The most common enunciation of the Second Law of Thermodynamics is essentially due to Rudolf Clausius. When the energy of a system is higher than the equilibrium level of the associated environment, it has potential to do work when activated. In the ensuring transformation process, the energy is dissipated to the environment and entropy increases to the maximum when the energy has reached equilibrium.
1640
the Fourth Law is introduced in this essay to formalize that fact that the Second Law can only apply when the potential for energy dispersion exists. The Fourth Law covers the generation of that potential. It requires the input of energy so it is an open system.
1641
These laws define some natural operations. It does not presume that humans have identified all the applicable laws. It is sufficient that we have identified laws that enable this assertion to be made with confidence.
1642
Iron, copper, nickel and so on.
1643 I find it almost incomprehensible that this fundamental fact is not one of the major tenets of our education system.
1644
Every time the decision is made to employ raw materials an un-repayable eco cost is entailed because of draw down of capital, the inevitable resultant waste and often associated devastation of the environment.
1645
Melbourne has to now look for a remote site for its new toxic waste dump. That means using more fuel to get rid of this exacerbating waste, another example of an unsustainable reinforcing feedback mechanism. Tell that to the politicians and you will be rewarded with a glazed stare. It would be so much better if less toxic waste was generated, especially as this would ease the associated health predicament.
502

1646 Which is undoubtedly a major contributor to global entropic growth.
1647
That is having an impact on human health everywhere that is slowly being recognised by some authorities.
1648
De-forestation in Europe in the Middle Ages is just one example of where consumption exceeded replenishment rate. The opening up of coal mines enabled the restoration of balance by meeting much of the industrial energy demand temporarily.
Unfortunately, there is no replacement for the giant oil wells, despite what the
Cornucopians prefer to espouse to protect their positions.
1649
Only some of the eighty odd minerals used by industry may present supply problems in the near future but in aggregation these entail an appreciable eco cost. P119 of ‘Gaia
Atlas’ provides some data.
1650
‘IN NIGER, TREES AND CROPS TURN BACK THE DESERT’
By LYDIA POLGREEN http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/11/world/africa/11niger. html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin
GUIDAN BAKOYE, Niger — In this dust-choked region, long seen as an increasingly barren wasteland decaying into desert, millions of trees are flourishing, thanks in part to poor farmers whose simple methods cost little or nothing at all. There are examples like this that show there are means of limited sustainable farming.
1651
Many aquifers, like the Great Artesian Basin discussed later, are naturally replenished to a degree. There are many of these that are becoming depleted because the draw off rate exceeds the replenishment rate. There are also many fossil aquifers that are being drawn down even though there is no replenishment at a useful rate.
1653 Harnessing sunshine or its derivatives, solar, PV, wind, wave and hydro, for industrial purposes requires the installation of systems that use natural resources and take time. This activity is expanding rapidly from a small base but there is confusing debate about its scope, effectiveness and environmental impact. It is extremely unlikely to be more than a partial replacement for the fossil fuels. Energy conservation is likely to play a major role in the power down, by necessity if not by design.
503

1654 A problem with incinerators is their copious emission of particulate matter, aerosols and poisonous gaseous components, the most LETHAL of which are DIOXINS. A great number of municipal incinerators have been prohibited because of that, mainly through judicial http://www.rachel. org/search/ index.cfm? processes
St=1
If you navigate Rachel’s site and search for INCINERATORS, you will find many tenths of references to incinerator' s hazardous byproducts.
1655
In its ability to meet the specific but limited human requirements. It does not mean that its ability to evolve is seriously impaired but the recovery will take time that civilization does not have.
1656
City buildings and infrastructure may, with appropriate maintenance, serve a useful purpose for decades but inevitably they will be replaced, if there are sufficient natural resources left!
1657
this is likened to a cancer on Gaia below. It has contributed to increasing the order of civilization (so decreasing the entropy of the Body) for centuries but there are now signs of disorder setting in, so entropic growth of the Body. The erection of luxurious apartments does not offset the deterioration of power, sewerage and water supply systems.
1658
We are now appreciating the consequences of burning fossil fuels as climate change becomes apparent to even the politicians and business. It is too late for any preventative action. We are just going to have to mitigate and adapt. Its impact on the operation of the ecosystem and industry will have to be assessed as realistically as possible.
1659
In fact, the education system strives to direct the motivational energy of the young towards being innovative and creative, a seemingly estimable aim, yet it is without regard to what is used up, so the eco cost and whether it is really worthwhile.
1660
Concern about the environment is increasing rapidly but from a very small base.
There is quite widespread recognition of the wonders of nature but not so much about how they have been abused.
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1663 There is nothing novel about this axiom. It is conventional logic based on the anthropogenic view that humans are in control of the operation of the ecosystem. It is identified here as in conjunction with the Consequence Axiom it forms the Dependence on Nature Law.
1664
Although global warming, human health predicaments, species extinction and pollution are waking a few up.
1665
In fact rampant consumption seems to be the prevailing view of most who can afford it financially. Consumptionitis is a disease that is spreading rapidly to the developing countries.
1666
nature responds in a subtle fashion un-noticed by those with dollar signs in their eyes.
It can be argued, however, that bacteria mutating to be resistant to antibiotics are not subtle! Poisonous cane toads migrating to southern Australia are certainly not subtle.
1667 Like the Antarctica ice shelves!
1668 The unprincipled financial manoeuvring, mainly in New York and
London, is very rewarding for a very few but potentially leading to a horrendous bubble burst that will devastate many.
1670
The Victorian Government has an add in the Age with the headline CREATING
WATER in referring to their plans for a pipeline and for a desalination plant. Do they believe that they are educating the population about using water sensibly when they use such ridiculous terms? The young need to appreciate that water is a natural resource that circulates. Its creation eons ago was one of the marvels of nature.
1671 This really is a measure of the ability of society to irrevocably draw down the natural bounty, at the expense of the ecosystem, for its own, temporary, benefit.
1672 They would be horrified if the acceleration stopped even though that just means the consumption of the irreplaceable fuel slowed down as the needle approaches the red E region.
1673 they are happy to believe in progress, so long as it can be measured in dollars in their pockets.
1675
CONFERENCE STUDIES GLOBAL WARMING By Sarah Moses, December 8,
2006. ''Us Native Americans take everything, such as the land, the air and the waters, as sacred,'' said Edmund Domingues, a councilman of the Cocopah Indian Tribe. He said
505

science is now showing evidence of the effects of global warming that indigenous villages around the world have noticed for decades.
1676 http://www.enn.com/globe.html?id=1613
’The Heat Is on for Greenhouse Gas Methane’ April 30, 2007. By David Fogarty,
Reuters. BANGKOK -- Across the globe, chickens and pigs are doing their bit to curb global warming. But cows and sheep still have some catching up to do. The farm animals produce lots of methane, a potent greenhouse gas that gets far less public attention than carbon dioxide yet is at the heart of efforts to fight climate change.’ This article provides information on the various sources of methane which is a potent GHG receiving some attention.
1677
The report by chief British government economist Nicholas Stern, a 27-page summary of which was obtained by Reuters, says the benefits of determined worldwide steps to tackle climate change would greatly outweigh the costs. It said the world does not have to choose between tackling climate change and economic growth, contradicting
US President George W Bush who pulled out of the Kyoto Protocol against global warming in part because he said it would cost jobs.
1678
Increase of the global average surface temperature above the pre-industrialization datum. It is confusing terminology as it suggests a rate of increase of the temperature.
1679
The degree of change is roughly proportional to global warming although RFM aspects could be quite significant.
1680 We have already ensured that we leave a legacy that could well be very traumatic in many regions.
1681 27044 million tonnes per year in 2004. The EU and some U.S. states are implementing measures to reduce their high emissions rates. But climate change is basically a global predicament. U.S. and Australia did not ratify the Kyoto Protocol because the developing giants, China and India were not bound by it. It seems very likely that there will be appreciable conflict in the years to come as countries that suffer appreciably from climate change will blame the past major emitters, U.S. and EU.
506

1682 Dave Ewoldt - Executive Director
Attraction Retreat/Natural Systems Solutions http://www.attractionretreat.org/
‘Facilitating sustainable lifestyles, organizations, and communities’. ‘Rising greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere is the outcome of a rising demand for energy which is supplied by fossil fuels.’ This comment shows a common misunderstanding. The rising greenhouse gas accumulation will continue so long as fossil fuels are burnt. It is not dependent on the demand for energy rising. ’ This isn't what is needed to achieve sustainability, which will require a return to pre-industrial levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases.’ This comment is unrealistic. There is no way human activities can reduce the levels of atmospheric green house gases. Planting trees will only slow the rate of increase of these levels slightly. It will not impact the climate change appreciably.
1683
There seems to be good reason to class the current climate change as being another irreversible process. It appears to have been activated largely by the release of vast amounts of carbon dioxide in recent times by burning fossil fuels, particularly coal. This has caused the level to rise from 280 ppmv to 380 ppmv and continues to rise at the rate of 3 ppmv/annum. We can only slow down that rate of increase by reducing emissions.
We have no mechanism to reduce the level. So the increase in level is irreversible. That conclusion then raises the question of when will the increase in level stop (so stabilization) and what will cause it. I know that many believe 450 ppmv may be sufficient to trigger catastrophic climate change.
1684 By about 3.6% each year
1685 http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0517/p14s01-sten.html?s=hns
‘Small particles' big impact on climate. Dust and soot from Asia create air pollution in
California, but also temper global warming and may stymie hurricane formation.
Scientists are taking a look.’ By Peter N. Spotts | Staff writer of The Christian Science
507

Monitor. This article highlights uncertainty about the impact on the climate of the large movement of aerosols westward from East Asia. There is reason to believe that aerosols have moderated global warming. This work aims to clarify this issue.
1686
This is presuming that reinforcing feedback mechanisms have not kicked in sufficiently to trigger climatic chaos.
1687
An unintended consequence!
1688
There would be many who would say that the invention of the atomic bomb was the best example of humanity being too clever for its own good. It is a very good example, especially now in the post Cold War era with multi-nation capability to exert population control! Others, however, would argue with good reason that the discovery and development by science and technology of the means of extracting oil in order to provided cheap energy to power industrialized society has been the best example of unintended consequences. It has facilitated the horrendous holistic predicament now facing society. Yet others would point out that agriculture started the process whereby humans distorted the ecosystem for their own selfish purposes. These have all contributed to the acceleration of the runaway car with the bad brakes, the blind driver and the sick passengers. The overheating engine and the depleting tank will, however, mitigate the crash
1689 ‘Global climate campaign: International Demonstrations on Climate Change on
Saturday November 4th ‘Walk against Warming’ Why Walk? The only way we can be certain government and politicians and political parties will have the necessary will to act is to mobilize the community around climate change like we've never seen before.’ This gives the indication of mobilizing people power to encourage the movers and shakers to do something about climate change, when the reality is that the best that can be done is to slow it down by reducing emissions markedly. People power will only be useful if they know the correct direction to push.
1690
It is hard to generalize about the natural responses to perturbations due to human activities. There seems to be a natural law that large systems take a long time to adapt while small systems adapt rapidly. Almost certainly there have been studies into this type
508

of relationship. The natural response to the high level of CO2 in the atmosphere is expected to take many centuries. On the other hand, mutations of microbes happen rapidly. Their adaptation to antibiotics is causing concern.
1691
The Australian Greenhouse Office has an Adaptation Policy and California’s policy includes ‘We need to improve our ability to understand the impacts of climate change on infrastructure and vulnerable resources’. California and Connecticut are leading a group of states seriously addressing the issue despite the reticence of the Federal
Administration.
1692
and even that view is being questioned as reinforcing feedbacks come more into play.
Global dimming seems to have a bit part too. ‘Global Dimming’ [This BBC documentary is accessible online]: http://video. google.co. uk/videoplay? docid=1027879546 389218797 ]
We are all seeing rather less of the Sun. Scientists looking at five decades of sunlight measurements have reached the disturbing conclusion that the amount of solar energy reaching the Earth's surface has been gradually falling. Paradoxically, the decline in sunlight may mean that global warming is a far greater threat to society than previously thought.
1693 ‘ Climate Change. Science and Impacts discusses the most current scientific evidence for climate change and explains its causes and projected impacts. As explored here and in greater depth in Technological Solutions, a number of technological options exist to avert dangerous climatic change by dramatically reducing greenhouse gas emissions both now and into the future. Business Solutions, International Action, State Action, and Local
Action describe how business and government leaders at all levels have recognized both the challenge and the vast opportunity climate change presents. These leaders are responding with a broad spectrum of innovative solutions.’ These activities could well help to mitigate the impact of climate change but it is grossly misleading to suggest there are ‘solutions’.
1694
"Carbon Trading, Caps, and Offsets--another market driven scam?"
< http://naturalsystems.blogspot.com/2006/12/carbon-trading-caps-and-offsets-
509

another.html> This article points out that this scheme does not necessarily result in fewer emissions. Businesses will, naturally, use the regulations to the best of their profit making ability, regardless of the price paid by the community. They are embracing carbon cap and trade because they see opportunities to make more money if they adroitly position themselves.
1695
How else can you describe the frenzy by Australian governments and business to cut back on GHG emissions so as to ‘control climate change’ the industrial giants like U.S. put in train yet are loathe to address.
1697
The methods we install are generally destructive of the ecosystem while the natural methods are not.
1698
for example, the use of chemical fertilizers has led to excess nutrients seeping into groundwater with the consequences of blue-green algae contamination and dead zones.
1699
an important part of adjusting your mindset is to understand that the powerful in society presumed the right to unthinking misuse the goods and services available from
Gaia to build up their domain. They thereby put in train the unsustainable growth of civilization. The collapse is now in the offing.
1700
The European Union has belatedly adopted the Precautionary Principle while China seems to be adopting a similar approach in an attempt to stem unexpected setbacks. The
U.S. and Australia have also adopted the Principle in principle if not in practice!
1701 In fact one of our objectives should be to salvage as many of these as we can from the coming collapse
1702 for example, remedial action in the Murray-Darling Basin is aimed at restoring to some extent the flows in these rivers for environmental purposes whilst allowing continuing irrigation but this can only be done by using more irreplaceable natural resources.
1704
Lists have probably been prepared consolidating the numerous signs of the damage done to the ecosystem by human activities. Such lists would so harden the view that we have ravaged our life-support system that even politicians could assimilate it, if they looked.
510

1705 The soaring apartments in Southbank here in Melbourne certainly suggest ‘progress’ to those who give not one iota of thought to where all the energy and materials used in their construction came from and when will the supply run out.
1706
I expect you will try to do this once your mindset is adjusted.
1707
And the fascinating part about this is that it is all so easy to see – if you are prepared to look!
1709
Even the Cornucopians recognize that oil is a limited resource. They just seem to believe that something will emerge to take its place in a timely manner. Perhaps their view is not surprising. They are used to fiat money – it is simply conjured out of the ether.
1710
As the sprawling cities eat up arable land.
1711
‘COW 'EMISSIONS' MORE DAMAGING TO PLANET THAN CO2 FROM
CARS’ by Geoffrey Lean, The independent, December 10, 2006
< http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article2062484.ece
> http://news.independent
.co.uk/environment/article2062484.ece
‘Meet the world's top destroyer of the environment. It is not the car, or the plane, or even
George Bush: it is the cow.’ This puts a different view on the causing of climate change.
It does not, however, get away from the fact that human activities have unknowingly done some horrible things to the ecosystem. We have bred cows because we like milk and beef without taking into account the other side of the coin. United Nations Food and
Agriculture Organization Livestock, Environment and Development LEAD Initiative http://www.virtualcentre.org/en/library/key_pub/longshad/A0701E00.htm#sum
‘Livestock’s long shadow. Environmental issues and options’ By H. Steinfeld, P. Gerber,
T. Wassenaar, V. Castel, M. Rosales, C. de Haan – 2006.Executive summary. This report aims to assess the full impact of the livestock sector on environmental predicaments, along with potential technical and policy approaches to mitigation. The assessment is based on the most recent and complete data available, taking into account direct impacts, along with the impacts of feedcrop
511

agriculture required for livestock production. The livestock sector emerges as one of the top two or three most significant contributors to the most serious environmental predicaments, at every scale from local to global. The findings of this report suggest that it should be a major policy focus when dealing with predicaments of land degradation, climate change and air pollution, water shortage and water pollution and loss of biodiversity. This article provides a comprehensive perspective on a practice that does tremendous harm to the ecosystem primarily to provide hamburgers! It provides information useful in assessing where improvements may be made.
1712
Human health is being adversely affected directly and indirectly. We are used to reading in the papers of the advances being made in tackling cancer, diabetes, high blood pressure and numerous other afflictions. There is little publicity given, however, to the fact that these are becoming much more common, often because of the novel products we are enticed to buy.
1713
CEOs would be sacked if they did this because their corporations could not long survive by drawing down too rapidly and wastefully on capital. Civilization, unfortunately, has not got a CEO to sack!
1714
Programs are emerging worldwide to markedly reduce product waste by worthwhile refurbishment. These are relatively novel business opportunities.
1715
‘HOGGING THE SKY’ By Peter Montague (Rachel's Environmental news)
’As a dump, the sky is a valuable resource -- a place where we can throw wastes like sulfur and nitrogen oxides, soot, mercury, methane, and carbon dioxide (among other things). Economists call the sky a "sink" rather than a "dump" but it's the same thing.
(Obviously the sky has many other values besides its capacity to accept wastes -- but for now we'll ignore those other values because this is about economics.) In recent years scientists worldwide have concluded that we have been dumping too much carbon dioxide [CO2] (and other "greenhouse gases," like methane) into the sky, thus contributing to global warming. They say we need to cut back pretty drastically.
The need to reduce CO2 emissions raises four questions:
(1) How to set a total limit on sky dumping?
512

(2) How to divvy up individual dumping privileges?
(3) How to persuade people to stay within their dumping allotment?
(4) If we collect money by charging people for the privilege of dumping into the sky, what should happen to that money?
Here's a brief discussion of these 4 questions.’ The sky is a major component of natural bounty capital. Industrial emissions into the sky contribute to the declining of this capital.
They exacerbate pollution problems as well as fostering climate change. The article is based on the common misunderstanding about the difference between (rate of ) emissions and the consequential increasing concentration level of the pollutants. Nevertheless, it does look at the rights to dump into the atmosphere. That is, the W (what is worthwhile) in the WoEC (where EC is the irrevocable eco cost). The discussion, however, is biased, as usual, by being based on monetary value.
1716
I wonder what will happen during the Beijing Olympic Games. The Chinese are doing their utmost to ensure air pollution is not intolerable, even to the extent of shutting some industries down during the Games. But they do have a battle on their hands.
1717 ‘How water bottlers tap into all sorts of sources’ by David Lazarus
Friday, January 19, 2007 http://tinyurl. com/2qu2c8
’In early 2004, Coca-Cola launched its Dasani brand of bottled water in Britain. Dasani had already established itself as one of the most popular bottled waters in the United
States. Within weeks, however, Coke had a disaster in the making. The British press discovered that Dasani was nothing more than processed tap water and ran a series of indignant stories suggesting that consumers were being hoodwinked by the U.S. beverage giant.’ This would seem to be a laughable illustration of the consumption craze that business actively endorses. The question is why work hard to get money to spend on bottled water when you can get it more cheaply out of the tap? Unfortunately, this predicament goes deeper than that. There are many areas globally where people are dying through lack of potable water while their affluent neighbors drink bottled water. Even in the U.S. there are many places where pesticides have severely contaminated tap water but bottled water is generally not justified for this reason. It is an industry that is not
513

worthwhile as it uses a lot of oil and produces a lot of waste plastic . Many American cities are now actively condemning this extremely wasteful use of natural bounty industry.
1718
The increasing efforts to try to save endangered species have little impact on the growing species extinctions because we are destroying their habitat or climate change is altering it.
1719
Raising the dikes in the Netherlands to cope with sea level rising will be costly.
1720
CSIRO is examining the predicted impact of climate change on such aspects of
Australian infrastructure maintenance as emergency management, road maintenance, hospital admissions and peak power capacity.
1721
Look at how well the politicians who sell economic growth get paid!
1722
You may doubt that assertion. Play your own mind game. Try and think of an example of where technology has provided us with materials or industrial energy without incurring an appreciable eco cost. That is, where technology has done something that is really worthwhile in a realistic materialistic sense.
1723
You may decide to have ‘a night on the town’. Your body will react according
(without your advice!) and you will then be wise after the event.
1725 http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/29/science/earth/29habi.html?_r=2&ref=science&oref=slogin&oref=slog in
’The Preservation Predicament’ By CORNELIA DEAN, January 29, 2008. Conservation organizations that work to preserve biologically rich landscapes are confronting a painful realization: In an era of climate change, many of their efforts may be insufficient or beside the point.
1727
The term ‘eco cost’ is used in this essay to be a measure of the total lifetime ecological cost of an operation to provide goods and services or to construct, maintain and demolish infrastructure. This eco cost is incurred when the decision is made to commence the operation so includes an allowance for the commitment to provide support throughout the life of the operation. The eco cost concept also includes an element for the draw down of natural capital even though no procedure to do this has been devised. I am not aware of any other mechanism to realistically cost these operations.
514

1728 ‘worth’ here is regarded as a prospective rational evaluation by society of the usefulness of an operation in relation to its eco cost. It is synonymous with monetary value only on occasions.
1729
The devastation being caused by some of these unintended consequences are only now drawing attention.
1730
So the Freedom Axiom
1731
so the Consequence Axiom
1732
Industrialization and the associated population and consumption growth have disrupted the past healthy Body of civilization.
1735
I emphasize that the major consideration is being given here to natural resources, air, land, water, plants, minerals and the like. It is common when talking about resources to be referring to monetary capital, intelligence and technology. That view is out of place in this essay. The term ‘natural resources’ is generally used to avoid any misunderstanding.
1736
The responsible authorities make provision for these activities in their budgets but that is not generally a realistic estimation of the eco cost. For example, oil companies generally pay royalties to the government for the right to exploit oil fields. It would be ridiculous to suggest these royalties represent an accurate costing of irresponsibly using this irreplaceable resource.
1738 It is intriguing that this discussion is concentrating on meeting immediate needs.
There is little reference to the implied commitment for maintaining, repair, demolition and replacement of existing infrastructure. Civilization would be very changed with rapidly deteriorating roads, irrigation, sewerage, water supply, skyscrapers, air and sea ports. Providing for the future of these essential items should be on the bounty budget.
But that has not entered the minds of our leaders. They do not believe there will be a continuing industrial energy supply problem. They believe technology will solve that problem, some way or the other.
1739
This is exemplified by the emerging concern about ‘Peak Oil’ and the rising oil price.
1740
Are composed of matter and have substance.
1741
There is increasing concern, with good reason, about the supply and distribution of water for human use and food production. Water is matter in this context.
515

1742 Cleveland with reference to work of Georgescu-Roegen
1743
the relation between energy and matter (materials) depends on the circumstances, as we see below.
1745
This is novel perspective, as far as I am aware.
1746
Investment affects the decisions made about what activities are undertaken but has no impact on what happens and the consequences.
1747
NEWS
OPTIMUM
RELEASE ,
POPULATION
November 2
TRUST
2006
ENVIRONMENTAL MIGRATION: "MOVING THE DECKCHAIRS ON THE
TITANIC"
Recent waves of economic migrants into Europe are likely to be dwarfed by future flows of environmental refugees from drought-hit regions such as north Africa, according to a new study from the Optimum Population Trust. The Earth's capacity to absorb migrants displaced by climate change, population growth and the spread of deserts is coming up against "key environmental limits," says the OPT.
1749 Including amongst the policy makers.
1750 A BALANCED ACCOUNT OF THE WORLD: A Critical Look at the Scientific
Worldview http://www.insurgentdesire.org.uk/balanced.htm
I find it ironical that I, a scientist, had come to many of the conclusions reached in this article. In fact, part of this essay deals with the care we have to take in accepting scientific pronouncements. The main finding in my essay is based on empirical knowledge of our every day world. It is not in conflict with scientific precepts but it does bring out the fact that the technology based on our scientific understanding has had unintended (by scientists and others) consequences that have devastated the ecosystem.
1751
It is fascinating that science and technology has led society by the snout for centuries.
And the masses have followed business in lapping it up from the start of the Scientific
Revolution to now. Old fogies like me cannot keep up with all the new electronic
devices. There is still widespread belief that the technofix will provide solutions to the
predicaments created by the technobubbles. The masses swallow that delusion hook, line
516

and sinker while business makes money from the delusion. I use the term technofix only
where science and technology may help mitigate the damage already done.
1752
the big predicament here is that science still tends to specialize in reductionism rather than systematics. That is, they examine the trees rather than look at the forest. There is quite a remarkable growth in understanding of many details of how the ecosystem operates and what human activities appear to be doing to these operations. But this knowledge has, in the main, not surfaced in context so is not available to the informed interested in the holistic view. And even when a systemic view is produced, as, for example, by the IPCC with respect to climate change, its perception can be clouded by political and economic obfuscation.
1753
The problem is inherently exacerbated by the fact that each scientist has a limited zone of understanding coupled with the difficulty of communicating the mental image to others, especially those without understanding of the subject. This essay is illustrative of the nature of the problem. The Dependence on Nature Law is a simple message but the substantiation takes a lot of words!
1754 The renowned scientist, James Lovelock, in ‘The Revenge of Gaia’ lauded ‘the great triumphs in physics and biology during the past two centuries’ while pointing out that civilization should now face the climate change crisis that its love affair with fossil fuels has unknowingly fostered. He makes no comment on the failure of science to provide sufficient warning of the unintended consequences of these ‘triumphs’.
1755
It encourages the view that humans are in control even though they are totally dependent on the resources that nature has made available. Science has provided the tools by which industrial civilization has degraded the ecosystem for its own, temporary advantage.
1757
"...the working alliance between research and practice was extremely close, and in many important respects had been almost entirely effaced [because they became one]. ...
But the significance of this tie-up between science and industry lies not only in the fact that the bonds uniting them were growing steadily more numerous and rigid, but also in the even more important fact that, throughout, it was the business man who determined programmes for
517

research, who gave the necessary money, and made use of the results. Science and engineering were subservient throughout. When business men changed their titles to 'Leaders' under the
Nazi system -- when the business men were given a chance under Nazism to dictate in all things -- they found no need for changing their working relationships with scientists in any single fundamental respect. Nor did the scientists who served them before."--Robert A. Brady:
‘The Spirit and Structure of German Fascism.’ There is no reason to believe that this relation between business and science is any different in other countries. Academic scientists may have more freedom but those in government research labs are often constrained.
1758
We are forever encouraged to advance the frontiers of knowledge. And this is often where research funding is aimed. ‘THE FATE OF THE EARTH’ by Tom Atlee. This thought-provoking article contains ‘Think for a minute: If we make a new bacteria that can turn cellulose into ethanol ... and most terrestrial plants are held up by cellulose ... and all our wood and paper products are made of cellulose ... and that bioengineered bacteria gets loose into the environment, where bacteria are well known to share genetic material across species and to rapidly evolve -- what are the chances that a mobile or fastreplicating bacteria will soon appear capable of wiping out our crops, our homes, our libraries, our forests -- either by accident or by psychotic/political intent? Such a possibility, which may seem remote from our comparatively stable world of today, is
GIGANTIC in its implications.’ This illustrates the possible dangers of a process that is currently being actively researched because of the money to be made by providing another source of fuels to support carmania!
1759
Generally to the disadvantage of the ecosystem.
1760
ISIS Press Release 10/05/07. The BP-Berkeley Energy BioScience Institute
Drama at World's End. The academe - the traditional citadel of innovation and higher learning, the fount of wisdom and independent thought, the guardian of ethics, the purveyors of public good, the conscience of society, and the scourge of totalitarian
518

oppressive regimes through the ages - is, alas, not what it was widely regarded to be. It has openly prostituted itself to wealth-creation, aligned itself with the forces of evil, and sold the people's hopes and dreams for a pittance to the very corporations that have brought the earth to the brink of imminent demise; and set to do even worse. On February
1, 2007, the University of California at Berkeley (UCB) administration announced an agreement between a consortium led by UC B and BP (or British Petroleum before rebranding) to fund an Energy Biosciences Institute (EBI) for biofuels and 'synthetic biology' research to the tune of $500 million over the next ten years [3]. BP invited UCB as one of five universities to compete for the Institute back in August 2006; the others were Massachusetts Institute of Technology and University of California at San Diego in the United States, and Cambridge University and Imperial College in the United
Kingdom.’ This scathing article presents the concern of some people at this attempt by industry to use academia to foster a program that has very doubtful worth to the community and the environment. Unfortunately, there are many like examples of science being prejudiced by financial support.
1761 Two major factors here are that companies look to possible profitable opportunities in perceived markets, regardless of their community worth, whilst the scientists strive to show their cleverness in the their field of employment.
1762 ‘I can not think of anything that could deep-six our species more than if we start genetically engineering ourselves! Such schemes overlap eugenics ideologies. Further, genetic engineering tends to reduce the genetic variation in organisms. The consequences of such could be highly unexpected. Even recessive genes have evolutionary benefits in repelling disease, and only have dire impacts for those with two recessive homologous genes. Genetically engineering ourselves will project us into an arena of complexity that we have utterly no idea how to chart our way through.’ This comment expresses what I would regard as a sound view, bearing in mind the Precautionary Principle. But genetic engineering is under way and finds general support. What purpose does it serve?
1763
HYSTERICAL SCIENTISM
The ecstasy of Richard Dawkins
519

By Marilynne Robinson
Review of The God Delusion, by Richard Dawkins.
Marilynne Robinson is the author, most recently of Gilead, which won the Pulitzer Prize and the National Book Critics Circle Award for
Fiction. Ms Robinson criticizes Dawkins’ anti-religious, pro-science views in a wideranging essay. The main point for this essay is that she criticizes that mysticism given to science by many of the populace and the inadequacies of science in explaining how nature works.
1764
Specialists often know how natural systems operate without understanding the detail mechanisms involved. For example, apiarists appreciate the roles of the various types of bees in a hive. They do not need to know how this organization comes about to appreciate when something occurs that disrupts it. There are signs that honey bee hives in various regions in North America have been significantly disrupted, possibly by pesticide use. It is an example of order in the normal operation of the hive tending to disorder (so an increase in entropy) that leads to the demise of the hive. And the scientists do not know why?
1765
Those that warned of the inadequacies of the New Orleans levees were ignored until it was too late.
1766
There is good reason to believe that the many chemical products being introduced into the markets are generating toxic pollution that is having a major effect on the human and other species. The devastating impact of plastic s is now widely appreciated – but little is being done because action is deemed to be too costly!
1767 It is topping the ratings now only after a combined effort of thousands of dedicated scientists over several decades under the auspices of the IPCC.
1768 BRITAIN: ‘Threat from ‘new E-coli’’ 23.sep.07, The Times, Sarah-Kate Templeton http://www.timesonl ine.co.uk/ tol/news/ uk/health/ article2511957. ece
A new superbug that scientists believe is brought into Britain through the food chain is,
520

according to this story, infecting about 30,000 people a year, according to government experts. Research has found that between 10% and 14% of those who are infected with the drug-resistant form of E-coli die within 30 days of catching the bug, which would suggest 3,000-4,200 deaths. This would be double the number of deaths from MRSA.
Unlike traditional forms of E-coli, the drug-resistant strain Extended-Spectrum Beta-
Lacta-mase (ESBL) affects healthy young adults as well as the elderly. Doctors say the
Health Protection Agency (HPA), the government body responsible for protecting the public from infections, has failed to recognise the scale of the problem and needs to do more to control the spread of the bacteria. Dr Graham Harvey, consultant microbiologist at Shrewsbury & Telford Hospitals NHS Trust, was quoted as saying, "We need to be concerned about this. It is a significant cause of mortality. It is something that has been missed nationally, and by the HPA in particular. Some form of surveillance needs to be put in place." This is just one example of where science is finding out about the deleterious impact of civilization on the operation of the biosphere.
1769
There are many dedicated scientists in these fields who publish their works in peerreviewed journals. It takes years for the implications to find their way down to mainstream thought, often because skeptics confuse the picture. Climate change is only now being considered by the powerful even though many climatologists had a good appreciation of what was happening many years ago. This has largely come about belatedly because the UN instigated the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to gather together and promulgate the findings of thousands of climate scientists around the world.
1770
Wikipedia provides the common view of economics. ‘Economics is the social science that studies the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services.
Although discussions about production and distribution have a long history, economics in its modern sense is conventionally dated from the publication of Adam Smith's The
Wealth of Nations in 1776. There Smith defines the subject in practical terms:
Political economy, considered as a branch of the science of a statesman or legislator, proposes two distinct objects: first, to supply a plentiful revenue or
521

product for the people, or, more properly, to enable them to provide such a revenue or subsistence for themselves; and secondly, to supply the state or commonwealth with a revenue sufficient for the public services. It proposes to enrich both the people and the sovereign.’
This is an anthropogenic view that does not recognize that the goods and services invariably entail the consumption of natural resources together with disruption to the ecosystem. That is, it focuses on production and ignores from what and the associated ecological consequences. It looks at only one side of the ledger!
1771
It is quite understandable that those people who choose to study classical economics are unable to appreciate the significance of the irreversibility of the ecological processes that under pin everything we do. They just take it for granted that the natural bounty is unlimited. Why not? They have not been taught otherwise and they get the necessities for living – for now!
1772
http://www.paecon.net/
‘The Post-Autistic Economics Movement’. This article has some telling criticisms of trends in economics from looking at what is really happening to relying more on models with their simplifying perspective that can be grossly misleading. It does, however, make the common mistake of ignoring that fact that all economic activity is based on using natural resources with consequential devastation to the ecosystem. That is, it makes the unforgivable sin for those used to accounting of looking at only one side of the ledger.
1773 Which has the insane objective of improving the ability of the elite to lustfully ravage the ecosystem with the help of the energy and wage slaves. It is fascinating that the profound criticism of capitalism over the centuries concentrates on the manoeuvring of the elite at the expense of the masses without reference to what it does to the ecosystem, which provides all the material!
1775
Skepticism amongst the powerful about the warnings now being sounded out now by the scientists is understandable. After all, it was the scientists who provided the knowhow underpinning the Industrial Revolution without warning of the consequences until now, when belated mitigating action will be very costly!
522

1776 http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html ‘Existential Risks: Analyzing
Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards’ by Nick Bostrom, PhD, Faculty of
Philosophy, Oxford University[Published in the Journal of Evolution and Technology,
Vol. 9, March 2002.ABSTRACT Because of accelerating technological progress, humankind may be rapidly approaching a critical phase in its career. In addition to wellknown threats such as nuclear holocaust, the prospects of radically transforming technologies like nanotech systems and machine intelligence present us with unprecedented opportunities and risks. Our future, and whether we will have a future at all, may well be determined by how we deal with these challenges. In the case of radically transforming technologies, a better understanding of the transition dynamics from a human to a “posthuman” society is needed.
1777
It seems very likely that nanotechnology will play a very minor part in improving the means for providing industrial energy, despite the optimism of its protagonists. This can be done by providing materials that are longer lasting and subject to lower losses. It could lead to much more efficient PV systems.
1778
the term ‘Peak Oil’ is drawing appreciable attention from commentators, most of whom attribute the high price to a range of political and economic factors. Those that recognize that it is an exhaustible resource imply that there is no need to worry yet. There seems to be little understanding of the magnitude of the task of adjusting to a declining supply with no adequate replacement. Doubtless there are smart people making covert moves to adapt to the reality that oil is running out, but the majority in the industrialized countries carry on with business as usual. Half this irreplaceable resource has been used up in my lifetime!
1779 Very pervasive mind games
1780
Hubbert, Campbell, Laherrere, Defferies, Nur to name just a few
1781
Hansen, Lovelock and Flannery have added their views to support the IPCC findings.
1782
Monbiot
523

1783 they know the evidence and the models have virtually eliminated the uncertainty about the anthropocentric influence. IPCC has now virtually confirmed that fact even though it is, by its nature, bound to be somewhat conservative.
1784
Lynch, who is an economist and others. The interesting part is that their arguments are generally quite easy to refute but that does not affect their voice in the mainstream media.
1785
The U.S. administration in particular. There is also evidence that severe ecological predicaments in China and India are not been adequately addressed, despite the warnings of some scientists, for economic and political reasons.
1786 The Australian government is now strongly supporting the in-country reduction of GHG emissions even though they are such a small proportion of the global rate that such reductions will have no impact on climate change!
1787
When regulators encounter nanotechnology, they have tended to apply existing laws to new products in ways that can seem odd at first glance. In November, for example, the
Environmental Protection Agency said it would classify Samsung’s SilverCare line of washing machines as a pesticide because the machines ionize silver atoms and add them to the wash — 100 quadrillion per load, Samsung says — to kill bacteria and viruses.
Killing bacteria and viruses is commonly seen – especially by business – a being a good yet there is good reason to believe that it tends to stop development of the natural autoimmune system so actually harms human health rather than improves it.
1788 For example, Professor Eric Isaccs of the University of Chicago is engaged in nanoscience research. He sees the possibility of the development of materials to emulate nature in harnessing insolation. He recognizes that it would be a major step to go from laboratory scale emulation to the harnessing of insolation efficiently to replace the declining industrial energy from the fossil fuels. The reality is that such emulation, if it did eventuate, would only fill a niche role. It would hardly be a substitute for the deforestation occurring now to provide biofuels for cars. These people are single-minded by necessity but that means that their pronouncements may be out of context. Already, though the rich world has replaced just a fraction of one per cent of its transport fuels, the
UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation reports that using crops to feed cars has raised
524

world food prices, with serious consequences for the poor. Biofuels fall into the same category as atmospheric smoke and mirrors - a means of avoiding difficult decisions.
1789
Especially the unintended ones like global warming, the effect of many chemical products on human health and how bees dislike GM foods.
1790 We do need scientists to think a bit more about what is really happening. We do not need to produce machines to do this!
1791
This is a means for reducing carbon dioxide emissions from power stations that is being researched. It could well make a very small contribution to the slowing down of the irreversible climate change, if it proves to be technically and environmentally sound. It can also help oil and gas recovery in some cases, for very doubtful ecological benefit.
There are some profound geological issues to be faced. Risk is entailed. Its worth for eco cost should to be carefully appraised. Currently, however, economic value is being argued with some consideration of environmental impact. It is most unlikely to see widespread application inside a decade.
1792
Those scientists working on stem cell research and other issues aimed at advancing the frontiers will find it increasingly difficult to get funding as all and sundry strive to make do with depleted natural resources.
1793
Future generations will look back at the disgusting throw out of working computers with disbelief. They will wonder how society could have been quite so entranced with the
‘update’ paradigm at the cost of the draw down of natural capital.
1794 A new science is springing up. The participants are researching geoengineering, possible means of slowing down or even stopping global warming. It seems that we were so busy being clever devising means of using the fossil fuels that we gave little thought to the unintended consequences, so there is now a thermal blanket round the Earth. Are we cleverer now? The proposed schemes will come at a significant un-recoverable eco cost but may be valuable in reducing climate change, if there are no unintended consequences.
It would be wise to apply the precautionary principle here.
1795
But we cannot turn back the clock. Now there are moves for proliferation of nuclear energy, despite the non-proliferation agreement!
1796
The cheap oil will have gone out the exhaust and substitutes will not be plentiful or cheap.
525

1798 That is being somewhat hypocritical. I had the wrong perspective throughout my career in aeronautical research!
1799 http://www.uow. edu.au/arts/ sts/bmartin/ pubs/92prom. html http://tinyurl. com/6rtse
’Scientific fraud and the power structure of science’ by Brian Martin
Published in Prometheus, Vol. 10, No. 1, June 1992, pp. 83-98.
ABSTRACT: In the routine practice of scientific research, there are many types of misrepresentation and bias which could be considered dubious. However, only a few narrowly defined behaviours are singled out and castigated as scientific fraud. A narrow definition of scientific fraud is convenient to the groups in society -- scientific elites, and powerful government and corporate interests -- that have the dominant influence on priorities in science. Several prominent
Australian cases illustrate how the denunciation of fraud helps to paint the rest of scientific behaviour as blameless.
1800 http://www.uow. edu.au/arts/ sts/bmartin/ pubs/92prom. html http://tinyurl. com/6rtse
’Scientific fraud and the power structure of science’. Brian Martin, Published in
Prometheus, Vol. 10, No. 1, June 1992, pp. 83-98. ABSTRACT: In the routine practice of scientific research, there are many types of misrepresentation and bias which could be considered dubious. However, only a few narrowly defined behaviours are singled out and castigated as scientific fraud. A narrow definition of scientific fraud is convenient to the groups in society – scientific elites, and powerful government and corporate interests -- that have the dominant influence on priorities in science. Several prominent
Australian cases illustrate how the denunciation of fraud helps to paint the rest of scientific behaviour as blameless.
1801 An American scientist was proudly showing on TV a prototype of an artificial tree he has devised to capture carbon dioxide from the air. This is a classic case of the muddled thinking that only too often clouds the discussion about what can realistically be done.
His artificial tree would have to be manufactured using up valuable natural resources.
Why not just plant a tree and let nature provide the resources and do the work?
1802
Some elementary truths on science freshly re-stated by Margulis, who was on blog tour http://scienceblogs .com/pharyngula/ 2007/03/lynn_ margulis_ blog_tour. php recently.
These views and some by Lovelock in ‘the Revenge of Gaia’ articulate the problems scientists have in gaining understanding of how nature works and then conveying this
526

understanding to the general public. Both recognize both the contributions and the limitations of science. They do not, however, acknowledge that science has primarily enabled human society to ravage the ecosystem without understanding the unintended consequences. Lovelock recognizes the damage that has been done to Gaia by civilization without noting the contribution of science to this rampage.
1803
And often misused by business for the sake of a dollar profit.
1804
That is if you do not look in the rear vision mirror and see the unintended consequences
1805
It is ironical that a group of nuclear physicists have been promoting the Doomsday
Clock as an indication of how close civilization is to chaos. They have just advanced it to five minutes to twelve because of concerns about nuclear proliferation and, now, climate change. Lord Rees, President of the Royal Society, said ‘But 21 st
century technology could offer ‘immense opportunities for the developing and developed world’. There is no recognition of the fact that it was science that enabled the two biggest mistakes of modern civilization! the irony is that they got the Doomsday Clock right even though it is nature that will determine the demise of civilization.
1806 Space exploration continues to entrance many. Very little emphasis is placed on the enormous consumption of natural resources entailed in putting a vehicle and its crew into space. It is regarded as a matter of national esteem. Does that objectively relate worth to un-repayable eco cost?
1808 http://www.abc.net.au/science/earth/climate/uncertain.htm
‘Greenhouse and the Science of Uncertainty ‘ by Chris Mitchell provides appreciable insight into the science behind greenhouse assessments and the associated modeling undertaken for IPCC.
1809
Climate models are now receiving a lot of publicity although a huge range of them have been under development by very knowledgeable people globally for decades.
1810
the global climate is a very complex system so there are many relationships to be included and variables to be evaluated.
527

1811 However, the models do provide a means of systematically accumulating this knowledge whilst contributing to the modelers learning process and to communication between modelers.
1812
That is a good reason to prefer the consolidated views provided by the IPCC over the personal views of skeptics.
1813
This gives the modelers a feel for the adequacy of the model and often indicates where the deficiencies are.
1814
This is one reason why the IPCC findings are so credible. And they are backed by a rapidly increasing amount of empirical data.
1815
For example, there is increasing belief that some reinforcing feedback mechanisms are not adequately represented in current climate models so the forecasts are under estimating future global warming while giving no indication of unlikely, trigger events..
1816
For example, the collapse of a major Antarctic ice shelf could possibly perturb existing models appreciably.
1817
The impact of the exhaustion of nonrenewable resources on population in the world model in ‘Limits to Growth’ is an indication of the soundness of the model.
1818 Lovelock comments in ‘The Revenge of Gaia’ on how the modeling of population biology hardly represents the real world despite seventy years of endeavor.
1819 It is why I have focused on what human activities have done to the operation of the ecosystem. That is, I am concentrating on empirical observation and knowledge with backing of scientific views where appropriate. However, this examination does arrive at a holistic view that permits an understanding of the dire future of industrial civilization.
1820
Terry Root, an environmental science and policy professor at Stanford University, says that as humans argue about thermometer readings, animals are providing evidence that should be figured in to scientific and political decisions. Animals are "just reacting to what's going on out there," Root says. "And if their behavior is very similar to what we expect with what's going on with global warming -- if they're shifting and they're moving, if they're changing their breeding time by 5 days in 10 years -- we can use that information to support what the thermometers are also showing." Climate change can occur naturally, but what worries many scientists the most -- and the reason why they
528

don't think this is part of a natural cycle -- is the rapid rate at which the current changes are happening -- changes that are being reflected in the responses of wildlife.
1821
By those having understanding of the fundamentals. This excludes almost all people in powerful positions!
1823
The IEA expects tightness in oil and gas markets to be mutually reinforcing.
When short of gas, industry turns to fuel oil. "Ultimately, this may lead to upward pressure on fuel oil and gas prices until electricity or industrial demand growth abates," the agency says. Naturally, there is no mention of the influence of population growth!
1825
Ilya Prigogine, ‘The End of Certainty: Time, chaos, and the new laws of nature’ p57
1826
Stem cell research is one current activity that is making the headlines. It will affect only a few people if successful.!!
1827
There is research into what is claimed (misleadingly) to be closing the industrial energy loop by using insolation to produce a hydrocarbon fuel from carbon dioxide and water. It gives fascinating insight into the anthropogenic view so common in science. It is proposing an artificial substitute for a natural process, photosynthesis. Grow sugar or corn or switch grass to get nature to produce the hydrocarbon and then extract it (ethanol) is one proven method to do the same thing, although this of doubtful value except in some circumstances, like organic farming of sugar cane in Brazil. Published on Friday,
March 9, 2007 by the Guardian/UK
‘Brazil's Ethanol Slaves
200,000 Migrant Sugar Cutters Who Prop Up Renewable Energy Boom’ by Tom
Phillips. This article presents another aspect of the ethanol controversy.
1829 http://www.biomimicry.net/casestudiesB.htm
‘Biomimicry: Nature as Model, Measure and Mentor’ contains a lot of information on this field.
529

1831 Airliners have produced a revolution in long-distance travel of people and some goods in recent decades. The development of military aircraft, however, has been a case of technology chasing its tail as every advance has been superseded by the gains of the potential opposition.
1832
In view of their contribution to global warming.
1833
Because of their impost on the declining natural capital, in particular. Aviation fuel will be difficult to replace but there are also many materials used in their construction that will become scarce.
1835 This is another example of the influence of time on the characteristic of processes. Humans have had to be exceptionally clever to beat evolutionary nature in such a short space of time.
1837 Eddy is one of many doctors to recently rediscover honey as medicine. Abandoned with the advent of antibiotics in the 1940s and subsequently disregarded as folk quackery, a growing set of clinical literature and dozens of glowing anecdotes now recommend it, just as bees seem to have become susceptible to a human malfeasance.
Most tantalizingly, honey seems capable of combating the growing scourge of drugresistant wound infections, especially methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, or
MRSA , the infamous flesh-eating strain. These have become alarmingly more common in recent years, with MRSA alone responsible for half of all skin infections treated in
U.S. emergency rooms. So-called superbugs cause thousands of deaths and disfigurements every year, and public health officials are alarmed .
1838 ‘Smoke worsens in Southeast Asia’,Sat 7 Oct 2006, by Mia Shanley
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Visibility plunged to 50 metres in parts of
Borneo island on Saturday and Singapore recorded its highest pollution reading in nearly a decade as fires in Indonesia sent acrid smoke across
Southeast Asia.
1839
Conquest of the Land Through Seven Thousand Years by Lowdermilk. http://www.soilandhealth.org/01aglibrary/010119lowdermilk.usda/cls.html
provides insight into what we have done to the land.
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1840 This is receiving less publicity than climate change or peak oil but, globally, it is a very worrisome issue. This article provides details of global water supply predicaments.
Earth Policy Institute, Plan B 2.0 Book Byte, July 24, 2007.’WATER TABLES
FALLING AND RIVERS RUNNING DRY’ http://www.earthpolicy.org/Books/Seg/PB2ch03_ss2.htm
Lester R. Brown. As the world’s demand for water has tripled over the last half-century and as the demand for hydroelectric power has grown even faster, dams and diversions of river water have drained many rivers dry. As water tables fall, the springs that feed rivers go dry, reducing river flows.
1841
Now ultra large cities (Bejiing, Mumbaii, Manila) are posing one of our biggest predicaments. This article describes the harsh reality in Manila. ‘The Magic Mountain:
Trickle-down economics in a Philippine garbage dump’, January 4, 2007 by Matthew
Power. http://harpers.org/TheMagicMountain.html
1842
Can anyone identify anything more stupid that destroying in a traffic jam a fossil fuel that it took nature millions of years to produce!
1843
There are claims that genetically modified crops can mitigate the effect of increasing droughts brought on by climate change. This is just one issue that needs to be carefully
evaluated with the precautionary principle in mind. It would be most unfortunate if the
debate was prejudiced by the profit motive of the companies promoting this substitution for proven natural methods.
1844 RICE farmers will receive guaranteed record prices for crops planted this spring, but many have not been allocated any water to grow their crops. SunRice, which buys almost all of Australia's rice crop, has guaranteed a minimum of $320 per tonne for the summer harvest. The company's unprecedented effort to convince rice farmers to plant their crops coincides with the worst recorded drought conditions and a campaign to push waterintensive crops out of the Murray-Darling basin. This is an example where money is being used to bias the approach to easing the predicament. Rice faming is not really
531

suited to the dry country and would be discouraged if eco cost was realistically taken into account.
1845
The disaster that was the Green Revolution is only now being appreciated in some circles. An excessive population has now become extremely dependent on chemical fertilizers, pesticides as their sources are becoming scarce.
1846
One kilo of kiwi fruit flown from New Zealand to Europe discharges 5kg of carbon into the atmosphere.
1847
But such rapid growth exacts a steep environmental price, according to the FAO report, Livestock’s Long Shadow –Environmental Issues and Options. “The environmental costs per unit of livestock production must be cut by one half, just to avoid the level of damage worsening beyond its present level,” it warns. When emissions from land use and land use change are included, the livestock sector accounts for 9 percent of
CO2 deriving from human-related activities, but produces a much larger share of even more harmful greenhouse gases. It generates 65 percent of human-related nitrous oxide, which has 296 times the Global Warming Potential (GWP) of CO2. Most of this comes from manure. And it accounts for respectively 37 percent of all human-induced methane
(23 times as warming as CO2), which is largely produced by the digestive system of ruminants, and 64 percent of ammonia, which contributes significantly to acid rain.
1848
While the world's population grows fifty million people a year or over a million people a week as the result of economic growth and the attendant ills of urbanization, fuel costs, pollution and those bi-polar symptoms of climate change, drought and floods, our food supply contracts. Poor planning and corruption add fuel of an undesirable kind to the fire.
1849 Civilization has already wasted most of its very limited ration of the natural intellectual resource by using up so much of the natural material resources!
1851
The advances of science have been glorified but the unintended consequences of these advances are rarely considered.
1852 I like the irony that Melbourne is about to get an Earth System Simulator based on a giant super-computer to enable CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology to run models that are supposedly better able to predict the weather. Recent advances in chaos dynamics
532

have shown how unpredictable such complex systems as climate are yet this new simulator is being touted by the uninformed politicians as being a great help to farmers for planning.
1853
To stall global warming for 20 years, one climate scientist proposed lobbing sulfer dioxide into the stratosphere, which would work in concert with cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. Proposals like this tend to cause confusion amongst the powerful as to what is realistic. There are often signs that vested interests misuse scientists’ prognostications.
1854
The belief in the technobubble to provide solutions is a very common delusion, even amongst the seemingly knowledgeable
1855
2007 Houston World Oil Conference ,October 17-20, 2007,Houston, Texas.
‘ Increased Global Demand for Energy and Mineral Resources’
Written by Vincent
Matthews MONDAY, 23 JULY 2007 ‘ Moreover, some argue that technology will save us. Again, U.S. history does not support that view. Since the U.S. peak in 1970, we have had huge advances in frac technology, seismic processing, 3D seismic, CO2 oil recovery, computing power and software innovation, horizontal drilling, and on and on. Yet, our oil production has been in nearly constant decline. Certainly, we will have exciting technological advances in the future— and we will need them. But, they will likely do little more for world decline than they have done for U.S. decline, i.e. slightly change the slope of the decline curve.’
1856 demographers have seriously addressed this issue for decades. There are a number of sound proposals that tend to vary with the regions. However, there is no suggestion of how a timely reduction in population can come about in a humanitarian fashion, especially in those regions of Africa and Asia where it is most serious.
1857
They cannot be expected to understand the detail but there is clear evidence that they have a general misperception of the possible place of society in the ecosystem.
1858
New Scientist ‘WORLD STRIPPED BARE’, 26th May 2007 (Green cover) Page 34 to 41.’We are using up minerals at an alarming rate. How long before they run out’, ask
David Cohen. There is now some awakening to the problem that Georgescu-Roegen articulated decades ago. Surprisingly, few Cassandras seem aware of how this will
533

exacerbate the situation with respect to over population, climate change and peak oil. The
reality is that they are all part of the World’s
Predicament s
1859 http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/3086
‘PEAK MINERALS’by Ugo Bardi and Marco Pagani, ASPO-Italy
*Abstract:* We examined the world production of 57 minerals reported in the database of the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Of these, we found 11 cases where production has clearly peaked and is now declining. Several more may be peaking or be close to peaking. Fitting the production curve with a logistic function we see that, in most cases, the ultimate amount extrapolated from the fitting corresponds well to the amount obtained summing the cumulative production so far and the reserves estimated by the USGS. These results are a clear indication that the Hubbert model is valid for the worldwide production of minerals and not just for regional cases. It strongly supports the concept that “Peak oil” is just one of several cases of worldwide peaking and decline of a depletable resource. Many more mineral resources may peak worldwide and start their decline in the near future.’ The rapid price rise of many minerals in recent years may be largely due to increasing demand, particularly from China, but they are exhaustible and they become more difficult exploit as they, and the energy used to extract them, decline.
1860
The concentration on the means of generating and using electricity without due consideration of the associated waste matter production has had dire consequences.
1861
I realize that most views on what is wrong with current society focus on the unsustainability of economic growth due to the limited natural resources. The draw down of irreplaceable natural resources (some of the natural capital) and the damage done to the environment receive limited consideration. How are we going to be able to maintain the build of civilization using the increasingly scarce natural resources and an increasing population is not even on the agenda! And these are only the ecosystem predicaments.
The social ones are also dire.
1863
A lab at the University of Melbourne has developed an electronic device they call the nictor that makes irrigation about 10-20% more effective by determining the amount of water the soil needs using five measurements. This is an example of technology
534

improving value against eco cost in a small way but it is most unlikely to have a timely impact on the holistic food supply predicament, despite the optimism it engenders.
1864
Two likely factors are that the vast majority of scientists are dedicated to their chosen specialist field and they have no reason to question the conventional view that science has now got the operations of the ecosystem in perspective. They blithely ignore the gathering evidence that things have gone horribly wrong and get on with the challenging job in their particular field.
1865
Generally this refers to the First and Second Laws. I introduce the Fourth Law because it complements the Second Law in all operations. I find it incomprehensible that there is so much discussion in learned circles about dispersive energy flows (Second
Law) without mention of the circumstances where they may occur. That is, how the potential is established by what I call a generative energy flow (Fourth Law).
1866
The focus is on industrial energy rather than the holistic predicament. Cheap industrial energy has been a major contributing factor but the predicament will not be effectively tackled by supplying more industrial energy.
1867 Britain, as a report by PricewaterhouseCoopers pointed out, could have built up a £450bn sovereign wealth fund had it not spent its North
Sea bonanza on politically expedient tax cuts and higher public spending.
1869
In the wrong direction because of the growth paradigm
1870
Of all types but including the declining natural resources.
1871 The study by Hirsch documents this time predicament for U.S. adapting to oil supply decline
1872 Heinberg details the five mechanisms employed by humans to develop their civilization at the expense of the ecosystem. He gives a very credible view (pp19-31) of how this has happened in recent millennia.
1873
Some argue that it is because we have selfish genes! This essay argues it has been primarily due to lack of understanding of the irrevocable eco costs of using up the limited natural capital.
1874
Heinberg gives an outline of how society has managed to take over many of the operations of the ecosystem in recent millennia with accent on recent times (pp19-32).
His view is a bit misleading as he concentrates on the role of industrial energy!!
535

1875 That is the holistic situation but the decline is most likely to vary appreciably with regions.
1877
‘systems’ can vary from organisms, like humans, trees, wind farms, to communities to countries to civilization. They have certain features in common and differences that are noted.
1878
The day-to-day operation of the city of Melbourne is another example. The similarities and the differences help to put what is happening into perspective.
1879
And, of course, Melbourne is aging too but do not tell the city councilors that. They like their faith in ‘progress’!
1880
there are new cities in China and elsewhere that are more livable because some lessons have been learnt from past mistakes, in cities like Melbourne! This, of course, is not natural inheritance but illustrates humans can learn lessons. Unfortunately, these are very rare examples.
1881
If political/financial and, hopefully environmental, considerations encourage the use of the better technology.
1883 There are hundreds of noted responses of natural organisms to the perturbations we have inflicted on the ecosystem. Many of these have occurred in the human body and only some are improvements.
1884 Stephen Jay Gould, ‘Life’s Grandeur’ p221
1885
Heinberg (pp16-19) describes this tendency towards a climax ecosystem. That is, nature had a set of checks and balances that maintained quasi-steady operation, until industrialization really upset this process by doing unusual things very quickly.
1886
it is common to regard what we have done as achievements. The knowledgeable, however, also look at the other side of the coin and are dumbfounded. Climate change is only one of the deleterious impacts.
1888
We have those exosomatic tools, money, communication, knowledge and machinery.
Heinberg (pp23-26) summarizes on the role of mechanical tools only. It can be argued that those intangibles, money, communication and knowledge, are much more effective tools in modern society. Unfortunately, they are effective in drawing down the natural
536

bounty for little real value. The direction has been wrong because we know less than we think we know!
1890
Called the Body of civilization here.
1891
For example, ‘Gaia Atlas’ p20
1892
Unrealistic decisions have led to exuberant use and abuse of the limited natural resources that constitute our life support system for inherently destructive purposes.
1894
So a natural application of the Life Axiom
1895
largely caused by the explosion of cheap credit fostered by the ruling elite. The end of cheap oil and cheap food will exacerbate it. And the masses will suffer the consequences.
1896
the consequences of this financial collapse would be a slow down in actual synthetic operations in the ecosystem. However, it will benefit the astute elite as it will give them many buying of stock opportunities. This will have little impact on the holistic scene.
1898 The first law is misleading for operations in our biosphere because a (friction) force always applies in the motion of a body so the body cannot have constant velocity unless there is another force opposing the effect of friction – a very impractical situation. The second law is also misleading because of this friction force always opposing the motion so it reduces the rate of acceleration due to the imposed force.
Newtons Laws, when properly interpreted, are consistent with the notion that time and operations in our biosphere are irreversible. Planetary motion is a different matter but is irrelevant here.
1899
that view had two deleterious effects. It increased the gulf between physicists and the thinking public and it inhibited understanding of the dynamics of systems.
1900
Ilya Prigogine ‘The End of Certainty: Time, chaos and the new laws of Nature’ p129
1901 doubtless there will be many who, when they realize what civilization has done, would like to turn back the clock to simpler times. Unfortunately, that is not possible. We will have to suffer the consequences of what we have done to our life support system. We can only move ahead down the decline.
1902
this is not to imply that most aspects cannot recover over an evolutionary time scale.
The oil, coal, copper etc we have used, however, can never be replaced in the timeline of civilization.
1903
which to the elite means ‘money in our pockets’ and more ‘stuff’ for the prols. It also means more natural resource debt to maintain the growing cities and their infrastructure out of the declining natural bounty.
537

1905 we are dealing here with the operations of the ecosystem so physical energy flow processes. Every parcel of physical energy arriving here as insolation is predestined to radiate back out into space after flowing through various transformation stages and possibly being stored for a while.
1906
This is synonymous with stating that energy irrevocably degrades in the direction of flow. That is, the thermodynamic entropy increases. There is more about entropy as we go along for those unfamiliar with this concept. It is, in a broader sense, a useful scientific measure of system order. Entropy increase is analogous to how our bodies tire during the day.
1907
This is formalized in the Second Law of Thermodynamics and its applicability is
clarified later on. There is a ‘reversible process’ entry in Wikipedia but it is an idealization so is not relevant to this pragmatic discussion.
1908
see, for example, ‘Energy in society’ in Wikipedia. ‘economic energy’ is referred to in Net Energy Analysis http://www.eoearth.org/article/Net_energy_analysis
1909
it will help to appreciate the situation to keep in mind when discussing ‘energy’ that we are referring in this essay to physical energy that has the potential to do work or cause changes. That is the technical definition. Dispersive physical energy flows (or fluxes) are subject to the First and Second Laws of Thermodynamics, but not the Fourth. We are explicit about other references to energy in different contexts because of the vast differences in meaning and their impact on operations and understanding. ‘personal energy’, ‘social energy’ and ‘intellectual energy’ are intangibles and not subject to these
Laws.
1910
EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - The European Commission on Monday (6
November) used the weekend electricity blackouts across Europe to call for more powers for dealing with energy issues at the EU level. Reacting to the power cuts that affected millions of citizens in mainly
Germany, France, Italy and Spain, energy commissioner Andris Piebalgs said "These incidents show, once again, that events in one part of Europe impact on other parts and again confirm the need for a proper European energy policy." This represents the
538

common view of governments and business with respect to industrial energy. They believe that it is essential to increase the supply of industrial energy to support economic growth. They would be horrified if they were informed that in reality they are promoting the destruction of the basis of their civilization. They do not understand that the principle sources of industrial energy are exhaustible.
1911
Like to the temperature in your study.
1912
People love using industrial energy to drive machines that do work for them. Little do they know the dire legacy they are leaving: goodbye to that energy forever!
1913
The principle sources of this energy, the fossil fuels, are exhaustible. The energy itself does no harm as it inevitably ends up as real waste heat when used. However, the associated waste matter invariably does do harm. Industrialized society is crucially dependent on using something that is declining rapidly and devastating the environment at the same time. It is a crazy situation driven by market forces, the desire for profit and consumptionism combined with lack of understanding.
1914
It covers the sources of physical energy that are commercially available for industrial, commercial and home use. This is common and well-understood meaning but its use without qualification in this essay could cause confusion as other definitions of the term are involved.
1915
Heinberg (p10) says ‘Few understand what energy is’. He then goes on to say that
‘physicists and engineers measure energy in terms of ergs, watts (incorrect as that is a measure of power), calories and joules.’ That statement is incorrect. Energy cannot be
measured. Energy flow can. When a quantity of energy is quoted it is really referring to
the potential for dispersive energy flow when the process is activated. That understanding is implied in all references in this essay to physical or industrial energy, as it is common shorthand.
1916 Some writers call it ‘commercial energy’.
1917
They often refer to ‘energy security’ when in fact industrial energy is irrevocably depleting even as they waffle on. They are really referring to security of the supply of an energy flow (electricity) or a supply of stored energy (fuel). ‘Although heavy oil extraction has steadily increased over the last ten years, the processes used are very energy intensive, especially of natural gas and water.’ This comment on the extraction of
539

oil sands conveys a misleading impression of energy. The process uses a lot of industrial energy from natural gas and a lot of water. Industrial energy has to be expended in supplying the water to the processing site but that is not energy of the water.
1920
Coal and sunshine are origins of energy in this context. The fact that sunshine was the evolutionary origin of the energy in coal is not relevant to the considerations here.
1921
Water in a hydro catchment and electricity in a battery are typical examples of sources of energy.
1924
This gives some indication of prospects for the future for those few prepared to look.
1925
"For every barrel of oil or cubic metre of gas that you consume today, to replace that barrel it costs more, so our industry gets a lot more capital intensive per unit all the time," said Jeroen van der Veer, chief executive of Royal Dutch Shell. This comment is indicative of the common misperception of reality. Each barrel of oil consumed is gone forever. It cannot be replaced.
1927 People go to work to earn money that can enable them to have time for leisure and social activities. Ironically, many work harder so they use part of their income to buy stuff they do not really want. They are trading quality time for stuff!
1929
The term ‘peak oil’ really means the peak rate of supply and has a major influence on the price, which is still cheap, bearing in mind that it is an exhaustible resource that will become scarce in the near future.
1931
A source that had energy input from winds that had energy input from insolation.
1932 The origin of the kinetic energy in the water is the gravitational force between the
Earth and the Moon.
1933 Some such systems have been installed on islands that do not have ready access to more common means of providing industrial energy.
1934
Water for flow through a hydro power station from the catchment, which has energy input from water precipitation.
1935
When the objects are apart. Moving them apart against the magnetic forces requires the input of energy to provide the source.
1936
Like coal combustion to provide the energy source for heating of water to steam.
1937
This is the technical potential so a comment on what is possible only. Whether it is worthwhile is another matter.
540

1938 So the origin of the energy flow.
1939
This has occurred in the Sun for insolation (sunshine)
1942
Wikipedia has a lot about energy, much of which is not relevant to this essay and would just cause confusion for the general reader. It defines energy as having "the potential for causing changes". Apparently this was the common view amongst the knowledgeable before the more scientific understanding of recent centuries. This definition covers what can happen not what does happen, the subject of this essay. What does happen follows after the energy process has been activated when it has potential.
The need for the potential to exist is a crucial point not often appreciated but it is taken into account below.
1943
or ‘intellectual energy’, the term used here.
1944
So has potential.
1945
Bear in mind that intellectual energy often makes an operation worthwhile but it does not affect the irrevocable eco cost.
1947 This is the result of a feedback from my body to my mind
1948 unless I was really sick
1950 So is not governed by the Thermodynamic Laws. It will generally surge with a drop of adrenalin!
1951
It is an energy flow process subject to these Laws.
1952
Sunshine via food
1954 we tend to take for granted many of the natural phenomena that play a crucial role, until they are absent. The current drought in Australia is waking people, including politicians, up to the importance of water.
1955
not necessarily good or appropriate, as we well know.
1956
This is the purpose of education and training. It is most unfortunate that in most cases today, particularly in industrialized countries, it is not giving the young skills in the basics.
1957
That this intellectual energy flow is not subject to the Second Law is one of the crucial points.
541

1959 Which is subject to the Thermodynamic Laws.
1961
Water is matter with an energy state depending on whether it is liquid, vapor or solid ice and what use of the water is being examined. Mechanical energy is considered in hydro schemes; chemical energy in electrolysis.
1962
There can be trivial cases where the energy flow ends up as chemical energy in some material.
1963
a very high proportion is as salt water in the oceans but the hydrological cycle circulates fresh water and converts salt water to fresh to balance the opposite, rivers discharging fresh water into the sea.
1964
it gets stored for varying periods in oceans, aquifers, lakes, clouds and even humans!
1965
We call this process the hydrological cycle. We look at it in detail later. It is an example of the Cycle Axiom in operation.
1966
All energy flow processes and some material flow processes (natural and synthetic) are in this category. They are the Life Axiom in operation.
1967
Some natural material flow processes, like the carbon cycle, fall into this Cycle
Axiom category.
1969 Decisions generally have a major impact on the changing social diversity so on the outcome of what happens to a degree. Unfortunately this aspect is often attributed to the
‘energy’ of the community. It seems desirable to distinguish this aspect by using the term
‘social energy’. It is not subject to the Laws.
1970
Remember, we are considering what happens in geobiophysical operations.
1971 Physical energy is an immeasurable but identifiable attribute of ecological operations.
It is an indicator of the ability to do physical work. There are a variety of units used.
These tend to depend on the applications being considered but they are all synonymous.
Conversion factors are supplied in all engineering handbooks and like sources. BTU
(British thermal units), ergs, ft.lb. (foot pounds), kJ (kilojoules), kWh (kilowatt hours) are different units for the same property, energy so work. These conversion factors are applicable only at the same stage of the process.
1972
I can decide to eat a pie because I am hungry. I am free to make that decision if I have a pie available. However, that decision has no influence on what happens in my
542

body when I eat the pie. There the metabolism determines how much chemical energy is stored, what happens to the fat in the pie and how much is subsequently excreted as waste.
1974
There has to be the potential for energy to do something. That is, the source energy has to be at a higher energy level than the surroundings that it dissipates to when used.
This point is often missed in discussions of possible energy systems.
1975
Note the use of the term ‘power’ here. This is a conventional use of the term that is at variance with the technical meaning, as discussed later.
1976
Many governments are expressing concern about ‘energy security’. They are really referring to security of the sources of energy, primarily the fossil fuels. It is based on the fallacious presumption that copious supplies of concentrated energy are sustainable.
1977
Principally electrical
1978
the chemical energy in fuels
1979
So evoking an appreciable eco cost in constructing, operating and eventually demolishing the lifed system.
1980 Various forms of pollution
1981 the potential had been established by geological forces acting over eons.
1982 Entropy invariably increases.
1984 ‘The National Highway System:
A COMMITMENT TO AMERICA'S FUTURE,by Rodney E. Slater
Spring 1996· Vol. 59· No. 4
What is the National Highway System? It is approximately 160,000 miles (256,000 kilometers) of roadway important to the nation's economy, defense, and mobility. The
National Highway System (NHS) includes the following subsystems of roadways (note that a specific highway route may be on more than one subsystem. Our transportation infrastructure no longer can be a collection of individual modes competing with one another. Instead, it must be a unified system with each mode complementing the others.
Increasingly, intermodal carriers rely on all forms of transportation to deliver goods and services to consumers in the most efficient manner possible.’ This is a fascinating myopic
543

view of efficiency. It deals with the efficiency so the current mode of operation. It presumes that the fuels will continue to be available for the transports even though the major ones, derived from oil, have been largely used up already. It presumes that there is sufficient natural bounty remaining to feed the operation of American society as well as maintain this infrastructure.
1985
Dr William Stanton in an article on the growth of human population talks about the great improvement in efficiency of modern agriculture. He quotes the rapidity in which various farming activities are carried out using tractors and the like compared to when they were done manually with much more rudimentary tools. This is most misleading as the appreciable gain comes at an un-repayable eco cost. The increased food production due to this mechanization has contributed to the unsustainable population growth.
1986
high economic efficiency can have disadvantages in coping with unexpected problems. This issue has little relevance to what industrial energy activities have done.
1987
So a loss in the ability to cope with unexpected events. There will be a demand for increased resilience to allow for the uncertainties due to climate change just as the global entropic growth reduces the capability to meet this demand.
1988
‘in’ and ‘out’ here means in and out of that stage of the total energy process. A stage cannot exist in isolation. They are separated out for discussion purposes only but can lead to misunderstanding, as we shall see.
1989 Typically the theoretical maximum (often called the Carnot) efficiency is around 35% and the actual efficiency will be less than that due to friction and other losses.
1990 In consideration of its worth as an industrial energy supplier. The design engineer, however, uses his/her skills to make it higher to increase the power output. But the engineers cannot be rushed in proving a reliable system. The article following illustrates the danger in allowing political/financial considerations to govern the implementation consideration. ‘WUTHERING HEIGHTS. The Dangers of Wind Power’ by Simone
Kaiser and Michael Fröhlingsdorf http://tinyurl.com/23kkfq
Wind turbines continue to multiply the world over. But as they grow bigger and bigger, the number of dangerous accidents is climbing. How safe is wind energy? It came
544

without warning. A sudden gust of wind ripped the tip off of the rotor blade with a loud bang. The heavy,
10-meter (32 foot) fragment spun through the air, and crashed into a field some 200 meters away. The wind turbine, which is 100 meters (328 feet) tall, broke apart in early
November 2006 in the region of Oldenburg in northern Germany -- and the consequences of the event are only now becoming apparent. Startled by the accident, the local building authority ordered the examination of six other wind turbines of the same model.
1991
And related embodied energy and EROEI
1992
comprising turbines, towers, drives, generators, power lines etc.
1993
transforming the kinetic energy in the wind to electrical energy with thermodynamic entropy increase due to dissipation in friction
1994
electricity supplied
1996
Insolation and the re-radiation of energy back out into space are the exceptions.
1997
That is not referring to e=m.c^2 which only comes into consideration of nuclear energy
1998
the physicists who devised the First and Second Laws of Thermodynamics were concerned with the nature of physical energy dispersive flows in the apparatus they were using. It would endorse the grave but common misunderstanding if we were to employ that isolation here without qualification.
1999 ignoring the relationship between energy and matter has led to many gross misunderstandings and society is now going to have to live with the unavoidable consequences.
2000 With carbon dioxide being the main one
2001
When you think about it, it is quite laughable to talk about ‘clean’ energy. It makes you wonder what ‘dirty’ energy is. How do you clean those ‘dirty’ photons?
2002
it has encouraged us to build up a Body of civilization that is now an incurable cancer on Gaia.
2004
The perennial battle between regulation and the free market continues unabated and undiluted by any rationality. The free marketers claim that the regulators often make
545

decisions that turn out to promote the wrong approach. They believe in the ability of the market to be efficient in making the choice. They neglect to say that the unspoken market agenda is consumption of what is left of natural resources.
2005
Common units are pounds, kilograms, tons, tonnes etc.
2006
We look later at a falling object as another example of the application of a force – weight due to gravity in that case.
2007
They depend on what various people think. We make judgments here about the value of these forces, as they clearly are not always realistic. Economists, however, seem to believe they act in the right direction – for economic growth and profits but also for consumption and waste production.
2008
Giving them a financial price is delusionary in principle but works in practice in rewarding the marketers with profits!
2009
‘Danger of leaks said to hang over BP's Caspian pipeline’ by Simon Clark and
Stephen Voss, Bloomberg News, January 9, 2007, LONDON ‘As police snipers watched from rooftops and an orchestra played national anthems, the presidents of Azerbaijan,
Georgia and Turkey gathered in July to inaugurate the 1,768- kilometer Baku-Tbilisi-
Ceyhan pipeline to bring oil from the landlocked Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean.’ This article details allegations that BP had allowed financial considerations to usurp sound engineering, so increasing the risk of downstream pipe failures. It is another example of where economic efficiency has been allowed to usurp resilience. It is a common practice globally as companies strive to beat the competition, so embrace a greater technical risk.
2010
These are generally externalities so outside of the concern of the businesses - illogically
2011 TV has a marvelous ability to convey delusions about reality!
2012
very few people appreciate that everything we do and use requires the consumption of natural resources because that is not the conventional view!
2014
The applicable definition is mass times velocity (speed). The rate of change of momentum (in unit time) of a body is equal to the force applied. A large truck traveling at speed is harder to stop than a small car!
546

2015 A catalyst providing (mis)guidance!
2016
With the application of a degree of wisdom!
2018
Work is what can be done with the available energy so is measured in the same units.
Doing work with the available energy is an irreversible process entailing irrevocable losses (Second Law of Thermodynamics) so the quantity of work is always less than the available energy (exergy) input. The losses are dissipated as waste heat. Heat is a form of energy so is measured in the same units. For example, water is hot when the water molecules are moving much faster than when it is cold. The molecules then have more kinetic energy. We are dealing with our real, macroscopic, world so we do not need to consider that deeper, scientific understanding of what happens in the microscopic world.
We are simply concerned with the real consequences.
2019
Here work covers what happens in nature as well as what humans regard as work. For example, a beaver does work in building a dam on a stream. It uses some of its energy for that purpose. The stream does work in eroding its banks, using some of its kinetic energy which ends up by heating the water.
2020 As noted earlier ‘entropy’ is a widely used technical term: its meaning and applicability is further developed later. A simple analogy will help those not familiar with the term. Increasing entropy is decreasing ability to do work, so it can be related to how tired you feel. You start the day feeling quite energetic, so entropy level is low. As you grow tired during the day your entropy level increases. You need to sleep to give your metabolism time to build up your available energy, so reducing your entropy level for the new day.
2021
Like adding to the growth of a tomato!
2022
This often means expending appreciable intellectual energy but little physical energy while seated at a desk.
2023
This, of course, can be very questionable, especially when it aims to encourage consumption of stuff
2024
unless you are starving so have little energy!
2025 It is contrary to doing sufficient work to meet needs then leaving time for more pleasant activities.
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2027 Power is the rate of doing work, just as speed is the rate of traveling a distance. That is, power is the work done in unit time. Its units are horsepower, foot pounds per second, kW (kilowatts), etc. It is a unique characteristic of each physical energy flow.
2028 These intangibles, power and money, are synonymous in the running of society, so long as the tangible ecological forces are held at bay.
2029
That person can exert the power without any physical limitation, in contrast to technical power.
2030 It is ironical that they have a tremendous influence on the operation of society yet their operations are not constrained by any of the types of laws that define technical power.
2031
Tomgram: Mark Danner, The Age of Rhetoric http://www.tomdispatch.com/index.mhtml?emx=x&pid=200332
Mark Danner talks to a graduating class on how the powerful use rhetoric to justify the reality they have ordained and are pursuing. It provides fascinating insight into the manoeuvrings of the Bush Administration leading up to the present situation in Iraq. It is intriguing in that the reality he is referring to relates to the relation between the imperial power and its opposition. It is a typical anthropogenic view. It does not recognize that the powerful here are impotent in influencing the real ‘reality’, the irreversible devastation of the ecosystem.
2032
Electrical energy as conducted down transmission lines or from batteries comes from the application of electromagnetic forces. The means of producing, transmitting and storing electrical energy were devised by a number of scientists and engineers in the 19 th and early 20 th
centuries. It is commonly regarded as the principle secondary source of energy in modern society. It is really a carrier of energy, not a source. The pioneers in the field would have been proud of the facilities of modern society that electricity has enabled. But they would also have been bewildered by the unintended consequences, a greatly improved ability of society to devastate its life support, the ecosystem. And it has also fostered the production of the greenhouse gases causing climate change as well as pollutants that are doing appreciable harm.
2033 Easily measured by a meter unlike the power of the government.
2034 That you tend to take for granted because you only have to flick a switch. Then the bill comes in! You are fortunate, however, in that you do not have to pay the true cost of what this usage is doing to the ecosystem.
548

2037 that is, if we do not interfere.
2038 From the fuel
2039
It would be more appropriate to call it ‘ejected heat’.
2040
Engineers have made great progress in improving the efficiency of internal combustion, diesel and gas turbine engines. There is little scope for further improvements but they are still trying. Boeing lauds the increased efficiency of the engines in their
Dreamliner even though the improvement has little real impact although it helps sales.
2042 It does make living easier – for people.
2044 This is another example of money speaking louder than reality – for now. It is driving ethanol production in the U.S. and biofuels in the
EU as billions continue to go hungry.
2048
The Sumatran tsunami is one noteworthy example. The Katrina Hurricane is another.
What they did are strict examples of work even though very different to what we commonly regard as work. Their energy demolished natural and human-made structures.
This no different, in principle, to a lathe using electrical energy in turning down a piece in its chuck.
2049
We know what it is like to feel mentally tired. Sleep and food enables the body to recharge the mental battery.
2050
and disastrously because of the associated impact of the exacerbating waste matter on the operation of the ecosystem.
2051 There are some microorganisms that draw their energy from geothermal heat at the bottom of the ocean but exceptions like this do not negate the generalization.
2052 With hydro, wind farms, wave machines, PV, ethanol, biofuels etc at an appreciable eco cost in installing and operating the machinery and associated equipment throughout their limited lives.
2053 generally by generating electricity or as a transportation fuel
2054 because it is the resultant exacerbating waste matter that causes so many predicaments.
2056
"All we are missing (to stop this) is political will, and that is a renewable resource,"
Gore said via a conference call. Most people would agree with that comment. Political will, however, does not have substance. It is not involved in the actual mechanisms
549

invoked in the operation of the ecosystem. It can be a powerful and useful element in the
Mind game but it is not a physical resource.
2057
It often has a major impact on decisions made about using natural resources.
2058
In ‘Gaia Atlas’, the authors talk in terms of ‘the most valuable resource is our willingness to change’. That is an important point but that resource is an intangible so does not impact on what actually happens in the ecosystem.
2059
Plants, trees, animals, microbes and people!
2060
Lakes, rivers, mountains and oceans.
2061
Raw materials, arable land and potable water.
2062
Science may not have formulated descriptions of how they operate but we do know from experience roughly what happens.
2063
Text for Keynote Speech by Maurice S. Strong, Chairman, International Advisory
Board, CH2M Hill and Special Advisor to United Nations Secretary-General to 2002
International Human Resource Forum, Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of
Social Sciences
Beijing, China, December 15, 2002. ‘People are a nation's fundamental resource on which all development depends.’ ‘As this forum testifies China has also wisely recognized that to realize the full potential and power of its people requires the achievement of a stable equilibrium between the level of its population, its economic progress, the quality and standards of life to which they aspire, and the sustainability of the environment and natural resource systems on which this depends.’ These quotes present a very common view of the role of resources, human and natural. The reality, however, is that the human resources are replenishable while most of the natural resources are not. So we have the situation where the human resources have increased rapidly with population growth, and they consume natural resources, while most of the natural resources have declined. The view expressed above, therefore, is in conflict with reality.
2065 It glorifies personal consumption – at the expense of the ecosystem. Striving for personal wealth is having the objective of being a predatory parasite!
550

2066 The Albert Hall, the Louvre, the Guggenheim, the Bolshoi, the works of Leonardo da
Vinci and Mozart, the Internet are just a few of the elements of global cultural wealth to be treasured and maintained, if possible. The sense of community is one to be fostered to mitigate the decline of civilization. It should be an element in the Earthly Revolution.
2068
This is so regardless of whether the flow is generative or dispersive
2070
It may also include some chemical energy that could serve a useful purpose given appropriate circumstances, like a composting toilet. The Melbourne sewerage system sends nutrients down to Bass Strait to upset the marine food chain!
2071
The energy flow into a growing tomato
2072
Tendency towards maturity.
2073
It is quite common to say that energy flow is dissipative. Lambert uses the term dispersive and it is used here. I point out that the dispersive energy flow is invariably from the radiation in flow (sunshine/insolation) to the radiation out to space, although it can be stored during stages. We discuss stages in that flow process but the total process is always implied because the stage cannot occur in isolation.
2074 Lights on in an empty office building is a queer sense of usefulness!
2075 And to hell with the eco cost. Let the future pay for that. Their only concern is the financial cost.
2077 Like the burning of coal when ignited
2078
A blast furnace is typically used for smelting iron ore to produce pig iron by using combustion of coke to provide the heat energy required for the reduction of the iron ore.
2079 These clearly contribute to the self-regulation in nature as they both tend towards equilibrium. The self-regulation in the Body of civilization is not so apparent as it is mainly determined by financial considerations that are often bigoted.
2080
Remember that these examples are only stages in the energy flow process.
2083
Like the fossil fuels and in plants.
2084
we consider the energy of an object that is dropped later.
2085
This is an energy carrier essentially invented by humans. Electricity does exist in nature as lightning but that is quite a different matter! Electricity has made a major
551

contribution to the development of industrial civilization. It is a pity that its sources are both damaging (to the climate) and exhaustible!
2086
It is used by individuals over time to build up their current level of understanding, expertise and skill. The level reached quite clearly depends on circumstances, many out of the control of the individual. It does not degrade with use so is not a manifestation of the Second Law.
2087
Intellectual energy cannot move things or do physical work although it has a major influence on what is done by synthetic systems. That is, it is behind the decisions that govern these operations.
2088
I think about what keys to press in typing this endnote but not about the metabolism that gives me the energy to press the keys.
2089
it can make an appreciable contribution to the value of construction, goods and services by enabling smart decisions but it does not influence what happens in these operations.
2090 with the smart ones emanating from the Brain.
2092 ‘ In the report, the International Energy Agency (IEA), which is based in Paris and advises 26 industrial nations, said that global oil demand would rise by an average of 2.2 percent a year from this year to 2012, up from a forecast in February of 2 percent annual growth from 2006 to 2011.’ Governments and businesses would expect that such a body would know what they are talking about. Yet this body does not point out that the main sources of industrial energy are exhaustible. The report carries the fallacious implication that these sources are unlimited. They talk in terms of ‘production’, so reinforcing the view that the capability of the oil industry is the only limitation to supply.
2093
the most persuasive argument about how ridiculous this usage of industrial energy has been is that roughly half of the irreplaceable oil has been used in my lifetime.
2094 http://news.independent.co.uk/world/asia/article2600243.ece
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‘China's water supply could be cut off as Tibet's glaciers melt’ By Clifford Coonan in
Jiuzhaigou National Park. Published: 31 May 2007
The clear water of the Min river in the Jiuzhaigou National Park is a candidate for the cleanest in China. It is filtered by 108 lakes as it makes its way down from the glaciers of this vast nature reserve before feeding into the Yangtze river.’ This article explains the impact of global warming on a major source of clean water in China.
2095
the global irreversible reduction in soil fertility because we use the soil inappropriately in food production for us is causing grave concern in some knowledgeable organizations.
2096
The energy flows associated with the microorganisms in the topsoil is detail irrelevant to the view of soil fertility. Yet some people misleadingly talk about the energy of soil. This is misleading because the energy cannot be harnessed for some other use.
2098
This is becoming for good reason, a common term. The financial price of oil has clearly been too low to encourage wise usage in the rich communities. This has been a classic RFM. Cheap oil has enabled the use of energy slaves in the production that has driven economic growth. This has then enabled more people to use more cheap oil. So the unsustainable usage of oil has spiraled upwards – until now.
2099 Mining the copious amounts of gas hydrates has often been suggested. This post ‘So therein lies most of the answers to your questions, keep the pressure high and the temperature low and the solid structures remain stable, lower the pressure or raise the temperature and they fall apart into methane and water. Have a look at http://www.pet. hw.ac.uk/ research/ hydrate/hydrates _why.htm
to get some idea of the hazards associated with these species. There is of course a lot more information out there, but I have not seen any convincing technology for safely mining the hydrates.’ This post raises grave doubts as to whether it can be done safely.
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2100
As electricity or in some type of fuel.
2101
It is really only useful in assessing whether the technology used is successful in providing a net amount of industrial energy. The evaluation of the embodied energy is covered rigorously by, for example, ISO 14040, which also examines other aspects of the cost of using the technology. However, as is common, it does not include an accounting for natural capital draw down. It assumes, for example, that the fossil fuel energy used is provided by nature gratis. In addition it does not include the eco cost of the personnel making a contribution with their skill.
2102
Generally called the embodied energy
2103
until you think about the fact that the embodied energy is only part of the eco cost and it entails the presumption that the energy is to be used for some worthwhile purpose!
2104
The skill of those operating the machinery for installing the system has an impact.
How do you include that in the embodied energy? It is included in the more comprehensive eco cost used here.
2105 How do you compare the diesel used in the trucks with the electricity provided to the user? Clearly the calorific value is not sufficient.
2106 http://carolynbaker.org/archives/pfeiffer-dirty-biofuels
THE DIRTY TRUTH ABOUT BIOFUELS -- Another Carolyn Baker.Org Exclusive by
Dale Allen Pfeiffer, February 07, 2007 Introduction. The net energy value of biodiesel and ethanol is very hotly debated. There are many net energy studies of biofuels, particularly ethanol, which give a wide range of values. The main predicament is that net energy studies are easily influenced by biases. The researcher must choose the energy inputs and outputs and the values to assign to these various inputs and outputs.
There is no clear standard.’ This comprehensive study illustrates the difficulty in coming up with a sound judgment based on currently perceived costs. It presumes, as ever, that biofuels make a sufficiently worthwhile contribution to the functioning of society to be worth the irrevocable eco cost.
554

2107 GDP is a measure of the goods and services produced, generally in a year, expressed in monetary terms. It is an indication of the value ascribed to these goods and services.
There has been much criticism of it over the years (Wikipedia gives a summary) but it is still widely used as a measure of economic growth and of the standard of living. The most important deficiency (and not noted in Wikipedia although over-exploiting of natural resources is) is that it does not account for the un-repayable eco cost of most of the goods and services. The very nature of GDP therefore supports the myth that society can consume and degrade natural resources without having long term consequences. This has been going on for so long, especially in the developed countries, that the deleterious consequences are now becoming apparent. China was looking at a more realistic measure of the materialistic state of society taking into account ecological damage. It was called the Green GDP. The figures were so bad this approach has been put on the back burner as negative growth is not politically acceptable!
2108
For example, the energy content in oil is not counted in getting net energy of gasoline at the pump. The industrial energy used in extraction, processing and distribution are the elements included in the energy invested (embodied) component.
2109 NASA has often expressed concern over the growing predicament of celestial jumble.
Earth is ringed by hundreds of thousands of junk items, including old rockets, satellites, motors, nuts, bolts, and spent instruments from defunct spacecraft. This predicament will only be faced by the powerful when a catastrophe occurs. It is just another of the unintended consequences of our cleverness.
2110 few would argue (except Mum and Johnnie) that Mum taking little Johnnie to the football practice at the nearby ground in the SUV is a valuable use of exhaustible resources
2111
such as the use of arable land for a power station or the use of potable water for its cooling requirements.
2112 http://www.resurgence.org/2006/ehrenfeld239.htm
‘FRIENDLY FIRE’ by David Ehrenfeld
555

Most of those advocating the new energy technologies are not suggesting any reduction in overall energy consumption. THERE IS A critical issue in the energy debate which has not received the attention it deserves: the predicament of ‘friendly fire’. Friendly fire is the euphemism our military and press use to sugarcoat the presumably accidental killing of soldiers in battle by their own comrades. The first time I saw the term ‘friendly fire’ used in a non-military context was in the book The Argumentative Indian, by the brilliant
Nobel laureate economist, philosopher and historian Amartya Sen. In Sen’s words:
“Sometimes the very institutions that were created to overcome disparities and barriers have tended to act as reactionary influences in reinforcing inequity.” Some quoted examples are abundant cheap energy killing fisheries despite the gross inefficiency of using so much fossil fuel energy to acquire the limited protein energy in the catch. This, of course, is synonymous with the net energy debate in other fields. It is indicative of the distortion caused by financial costing. The energy used by the fishing fleets could provide more value to the community elsewhere – so long as it was not in fuel for cars or airliners!
2113
that is the subject being pursued here.
2114
2116
There are many organizations and businesses that foster the development of
‘renewable’ energy measures. They should be charged with false advertising, especially as their proposals invariably involve appreciable eco costs that may not really be worthwhile.
2117
That is almost as bad as the term ‘economic growth’ which really means consume more, whilst the natural bounty lasts! To hell with the future!
2118
Again this conveys a misleading impression to most people. They tend to ‘think’ that people organized the production when Sun did all the hard work!
2119 PV, solar, solar towers, biofuels invoke eco costs for the systems to transform the incident energy to the form to be used, electrical or in a fuel.
2120 ‘The Wedge from Substituting Wind Power for Coal Power’ is a Princeton study that looks at the prospect of wind power replacing coal power. It is a typical prejudiced view.
In another proposal, the wind turbines are floating on platforms a hundred miles out to
556

sea, where the winds are strong and steady. This tentative proposal has some quite obvious advantages and disadvantages! These proposals need to be assessed on technical grounds, not on the financial advantages for the implementer. Many studies have shown that wind farms will meet, at best, only a small proportion of industrial energy demand, despite their obvious ecological disadvantages.
2121
Once appreciable natural resources have been used in providing the dam, channels, pipe and transmission lines and power station that also disrupt geodiversity so biodiversity.
2122
The eco costs of which are very arguable largely because of the greenhouse gas generation and waste storage question. Most projections are based on increasing electricity demand with little consideration of the impact of oil decline and climate change.
2123
And this has very little impact on the ecosystem although the associated material exacerbating wastes do. This real waste heat makes a negligible contribution to global warming.
2125 Except when it is radiation in as photons in insolation or radiated back out into space
2127 there is no doubt that cheap industrial energy has been the dominant factor in the growth of materialism but that has not really been good reason to virtually ignore many other significant factors, like the supply of cheap, potable water.
2128
those natural goods and services that supply the foundations of civilization are declining. There is no reason to believe that Gaia itself will not continue to evolve slowly but sustainably despite this aberration. It has proven checks and balances!
2129
‘DIET FOR A DEAD PLANET’ by Christopher D. Cook
More than 75 million Americans fell sick last year from the food they ate, and 5000 of them died. Obesity and diet-related diseases are soaring to record levels. Mad cow disease has spread to the United States. The issue of food safety has never been more stark. Now, Christopher D. Cook's riveting and timely investigation takes us beyond fast food and GMOs to explain why our entire food system is in crisis. Corporate control of farms and supermarkets, unsustainable drives to increase agribusiness profits, misplaced
557

subsidies for exports, and anemic regulation have all combined to produce a grim harvest.
Food, our most basic necessity, has become a force behind a staggering array of social, economic, and environmental epidemics. Yet there is another way. Taking heart from the promising surge in organics, farmers' markets, and slow food, Cook argues cogently for a whole new way of looking at what we eat -- one that places healthy, sustainably produced food at the top of the menu for political change. "Just about every arm of our food production system has a heart monitor beeping with the warning signs of death. Cook's title, it turns out, isn't the exaggerated scare tactic it at first seems to be." "We need a whole new way of thinking about food, one that encompasses health, affordability, accessibility, ecological sustainability, and an economics that enables farmers to keep farming." http://www.dietforadeadplanet.com/ http://www.energyjustice.net/solutions/
2130
it has encouraged the specialization that has put producers at the bottom of the chain and parasites at the top.
2131
IPCC has now said this view is ‘unequivocal’.
2132
It is ironical that this malfeasance by homo sapiens is rebounding in that it is causing many human health predicaments, partly because of perturbation of natural checks and balances in body functions.
2133
The scientists and the corps agree on one point: Hurricane Katrina "changed
Mississippi' s Gulf Coast forever," as the corps said in its outline of its proposals,
"Mississippi Coastal Improvements Program, Interim Report" ( http://mscip. usace.army. mil/downloads. asp ).
As the report puts it, "beachfront neighborhoods were leveled entirely, and estimates by officials have calculated that 90 percent of the structures within one-half mile of the coastline were completely destroyed." Basically the corps wants to rebuild the disruptions to the regional geodiversity and the scientists are appalled that the lessons have not been learnt.
2134
the Millennium Ecological Assessment gives appreciable detail about the uncosted benefits of many ecosystems that have been disrupted by human activities.
2136
they heat air, water, soil and anything else they hit, including us
558

2137 it has potential to do something. That is, the Fourth Law operating in the Sun has set up the dispersive energy flow of the Second Law.
2138
some, of course, do not escape immediately due to the carbon dioxide blanket we have installed, so the atmosphere and oceans are warmed
2139
there is no need to consider the bond energy in water when examining the energy flow in a hydro scheme.
2140
It is very likely that nuclear fission will have an increasing part to play, even as the global economy goes into decline, because of the reduction in the part played by fossil fuels.
2142
that the operation of a dispersive process is invariably preceded by the operation of a generative process
2143
looking at how a process transforms is a simplification that can be misleading if its place in the operation of a system is ignored.
2144
Chemical energy to heat to mechanical to electrical
2145
An energy transformation process is always life limited. A matter transformation process can be cyclic (as for water) or life limited (as for iron ore). This distinction is crucial to the development of the theme of this essay. The terms ‘Life Axiom’ and ‘Cycle
Axiom’ are introduced to simplify identification.
2146 That generative process is the Fourth Law component of the Life Axiom of iron. It is followed by rusting, the Second Law implementation.
2147
The entropic level of an iron ore deposit is appreciably lower than that of a rusting hulk. It has potential while the hulk has none, unless appreciably more energy is input to
‘recycle’ some of the steel.
2149
It is an example of a generative process inevitably followed by a dispersive process.
2151
My body aging, a tomato plant growing, a Boeing 747 aging and the Ganges silting up are just some examples.
2152
Chemical>heat>mechanical>electrical
2153
as part of the metabolism
2154
Fourth Law with order increasing so entropy decreasing
2155
senescence following the Second Law with entropy increasing
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2156 Fourth Law
2157
essentially Second Law due to wear and tear modified by maintenance.
2158
forced Second Law
2159
this can be called the Life Axiom to ease identification of the various circumstances leading inevitably to the same type of system development in principle.
2160
the long-living Huon pine tree is no different either.
2161
Note that this comment about mortality does not imply anything with respect to the evolution of Gaia due to the vast difference in time scale
2163
entropy increases even if I do no physical work as much is being done internally.
2164
Second Law
2165
Fourth Law
2166
We all have an intuitive grasp of aging. Doubtless specialists in the medical field have a much greater understanding of this irreversible process. The aging of the body of civilization seems to have some similarities but the analogy can be taken too far because the condition of various regions of the globe vary so much.
2167 I find it fascinating to compare the addiction of society to energy use to the addiction of many people to smoking. People are happy to accept the benefits of having energy slaves even as the consequences, like climate change and the health impact of pollution, are becoming better known. There are desperate attempts to find substitutes for the damaging sources, the fossil fuels, but little recognition of what the future really holds.
Society, like many lung cancer patients, is not prepared to accept the drastic treatment necessary to mitigate the impact of the disease. It does not accept the diagnosis as yet because it is blinded by the addiction.
2168 http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,494707,00.html
‘POLITICAL MELTDOWN
German Mishaps Put Nuclear Power under Scrutiny’
This article provides detail of the maintenance problems that have occurred in the aging
German nuclear reactors. This is another example of what can be expected as global entropy grows.
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2169 The continuing development of city skyscrapers evinces wonder. The consequential draw down of the natural bounty is easily forgotten along with the fact that these buildings are only temporary.
2171
The oxygen is available in the air.
2172
Remember this as a useful contrast of the effectiveness of a natural process compared to the eco costly synthetic process often touted by humans as an effective substitute.
2174
Using iron ore as an example does not imply that its stocks are getting scarce.
However, the stocks of quite a few minerals are becoming scarce. Copper and lead are two that command very high prices as they become scarce. This predicament is exacerbated by the global mal-distribution of many of these minerals.
2175
Fourth Law
2176
Second Law following Fourth Law, as usual. The rusting occurs spontaneously if the iron is not protected from the air.
2178
Lambert qualifies it as ‘thermodynamic entropy’ to differentiate from the more general definition of tending from order to disorder that applies to systems as well as processes.
2179 The necessity of having potential is explicitly recognized here as the need for the preceding Fourth Law.
2180 None have ever worked, despite some claims to the contrary in popular magazines.
2181
Just a reminder that the reality is that the operation of civilization is totally dependent on using what is still available from the ecosystem. And what is available is generally declining even though new discoveries may temporarily halt this.
2183
Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen ’Energy and Economic Myths : Institutional and
Analytical Economic Essays (1976). Pergamon Press: New York
2184
This disparity in views is easy to understand. Heinberg p15 says ‘all of nature is continually engaged in the cycling and recycling of matter and energy … energy flows which drive matter cycles and which began with sunlight’. That is so for Gaia but not for the Body of civilization. Iron ore (examined later) is just one of numerous examples of matter that is not recycled. This is a characteristic of systems installed by humans that is
561

contrary to nature. It is a crucial point in this essay. ‘recycling of energy’ is misleading as this refers to the chemical energy of recycling matter only.
2185
Because the potential of this process was set up in the Sun.
2186
others, like the hydrological cycle, are not.
2187
This is an ‘open’ process is the common terminology. I avoid the confusion by noting that stages in processes and systems follow either the Fourth Law (equivalent to open) or the Second Law.
2188
Fourth Law
2189
after the Second Law has done its energy dispersion
2190
there are natural processes that cycle nutrients whilst there are processes installed by humans that ensure some end up as exacerbating waste, so contributing to global entropic growth. Desertification, loss of soil fertility and dead zones in the Gulf of Mexico and the
Baltic Sea are some results of this misdirection of nutrients.
2191
Natural nutrient flows are cyclic but we have managed to impose lifed nutrient flows to the detriment of the ecosystem.
2192 Synthetic material flows irrevocably entail an un-repayable eco cost.
2194 in the body dropping example below, the gravitational potential of the body is stored until the body is released and energy transformation commences.
2195 Lambert, amongst many, provides a microscopic view of why this dissipation
(dispersion) invariably occurs. That provides the basis for the Second Law. We are concerned with what the Second Law tells us about what happens in our macroscopic world.
2196
That is a specific example of an energy flow that can be activated – by ignition.
2198
When insolation has provided the energy input to establish the potential for dispersion: essentially an application of the Fourth Law.
2199
It may be delayed until activated naturally or synthetically.
2200
With dispersion following generation spontaneously without activation.
2202
This deterioration occurs despite continuing sustenance maintaining functioning
2203
As we have noted, there are microscopic reasons why an energy flow will disperse when activated. This inevitable result is formalized by the Second Law. There is no
562

similar explanation of why a complex system like the human body behaves in a similar fashion but we know that it does. So we can say that it follows the Second Law. It goes from order to disorder during the latter stages of its life.
2204
Like the life of a tomato
2205
Like the life of a coal-fired power station
2207
the widespread use of the terminology ‘open’ and ‘closed’ systems tends to cause confusion where it is not backed by full understanding of the systems they apply to. In the main, I avoid this by referring to where they follow the Second or Fourth Laws .
2208
Here order refers to the state of the associated matter, not the energy. In dropping an object, the matter is the object and order is when it is up high and has potential if the dropping is activated.
2209
This depends on the circumstances of the process being considered but it is consistent with the intuitive sense of when the process is finished after activation.
2210
the narrower definition is explicitly called ‘thermodynamic entropy’ when referred to
2211
the iron ore process is an open system in which entropy decreases as the iron oxide is transformed to metallic iron through energy input from the coke combustion, the Fourth
Law in operation. Later the entropy increases as the iron rusts. This is a manifestation of the Second Law.
2212 entropy invariably increases in an energy transformation process but can decrease locally and transitorily in an material transformation process but this is more than countered by the associated entropy increase in its environment.
2213 All organisms behave this way through their day-to-day functioning and through their development.
2214
The World Trade Center is a prominent example. Its demolition was a major increase in disorder. The localized increase in order by the construction of the new Center comes at the cost of a contribution to global entropic growth due to the natural bounty used.
2215 In the first experiment of its kind done on native grassland, U.S. scientists artificially doubled carbon dioxide (CO2) levels over enclosed sections of prairie in Colorado, a state in the western United States, for five years. To their surprise, one shrub species, Artemisia frigida -- commonly known as fringed sage --
563

thrived under those conditions. In fact, it grew 40 times faster than normal, dominating other plant species. "This kind of response to higher CO2 levels is almost unprecedented," said Jack Morgan, a plant physiologist at the U.S.
Department of Agriculture, and lead author of the study, published Aug. 28 in the
'Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences' (PNAS), a science journal.
This is just one example of how human activities have disrupted ecological succession. In this case it is due to carbon dioxide emissions from industry.
2219
this is an energy transformation process in water but differs from the coal-fired generation of electricity in that it has an energy input that enables it to be cyclic
2220 but not a reversible process
2221
there are many who believe the gravitational force is providing the energy. That is not so. The gravitational force can enable the potential for flow of energy from a source but it is not the source of the energy. Water in a hydro catchment has gravitational potential energy but insolation was the source of that energy through its evaporation preceding its precipitation.
2222
This constitutes order in the cycle. There is now potential to do work.
2223
generally after forming clouds that move appreciable distances (advection)
2224 http://www.truthout.org/issues_06/072307EA.shtml
‘Study: Humans to Blame for Changes in Rain’ Reuters, 23 July 2007
‘First time "human fingerprint" on precipitation detected, authors report. Human activities that spur global warming are largely to blame for changes in rainfall patterns over the last century, climate researchers reported Monday.
2225
the trend from order to disorder
2226
heat and mechanical energy
2227
global entropic growth is used in this essay as it contains the essence of what human activities are doing to the operation of Gaia. The natural entropy of Gaia has been slowly decreasing for eons as order has evolved from disorder. On the other hand, human activities have caused the global entropy to grow very rapidly in the past century. It is
564

ironical that the intangible, economic growth (regarded as a ‘good’), is closely associated with increasing entropic growth, which cannot possibly continue. It is possible that entropic growth has already peaked in countries like U.S. and Australia. They will find it increasingly difficult to maintain the material foundations of their societies. The emerging water predicaments could be a manifestation of this predicament. The eco costs of alleviating predicaments grow even with advances in technology. The new oil find at great depth in the Gulf of Mexico is an example of the increasing difficulty of oil exploration and extraction.
2228
Very wastefully in cities.
2229
It is ironical that one study shows that a hydropower plant in the Amazon has 3.6 times larger greenhouse effect per kW·h than electricity production from oil, due to large scale emission of methane from decaying organic material. Hydro power has often been touted as one of the best forms of energy supply but the latest scrutinies are casting grave doubts on that assertion.
2230
Of the world's major rivers, 10 per cent fail to reach the sea for part of each year because of irrigation demands.
2231 These installations often disrupt geodiversity so, consequently, biodiversity. The
Gordon hydro scheme in Tasmania flooded the beautiful Lake Pedder and destroyed its flora and fauna.
2232
Pumping systems for irrigation and in cities use a lot of industrial energy and materials for construction and operation.
2234 Photosynthesis in plants is a system with the energy input coming from the incident insolation. The carbon dioxide and water inputs contribute to the carbohydrate production. Entropy increases as the chemical energy in the plant is appreciably less than in the insolation with the difference being dissipated. The metabolism in animals is also a system following the Second Law with an entropy increase in the energy transformation process.
2235
These notes by climatologists are just two of many that provides sound evidence that a major climate change is already under way. ‘The researchers found that stronger westerly winds in the northern Antarctic Peninsula, fueled primarily by human-induced
565

climate change, were responsible for the dramatic summer warming that led to the retreat and collapse of the Larson B ice shelf. The 1,255-square mile ice shelf collapsed into the
Weddell Sea over a 35-day period in early 2002. Scientists believe the 220-meter thick shelf had been in place for some 5,000-12,000 years.’
'Heatwave Down To Global Warming' Say Experts, Tuesday, 17th October 2006 http://www.lse.co.uk/ShowStory.asp?story=ZX1630118R&news_headline=heatwave_do wn_to_global_warming_say_experts
Britain basked in its hottest summer for almost 350 years because of global warming, the
Met Office has confirmed. This summer's temperatures were an average of 16.2C from
May to September, 2C above average and the highest they have been since records began in 1659.
2236
Carbon dioxide in and oxygen out, so a carbon sink.
2237
Oxygen in and carbon dioxide out, so a carbon source.
2238
There is a lot of confusion about the term ‘emission’ in discussions about global warming and climate change. Technically it is the rate of emission of GHG, generally quoted in terms of tonnes per year. This emission is causing the concentration level of
GHG in the atmosphere to irreversibly rise. Reducing emissions, the main point of discussion, only slows down the rate of increase in that level, global warming. Yet the discussions give the impression that stopping emissions from increasing will control climate change!
2239
It has varied appreciably over evolutionary time scales but at a rate orders less than what we have been able to (blindly) do in recent centuries.
2240
The WMO said levels rose 0.53 percent from 2005 to 381.2 parts per million of the atmosphere, 36 percent above levels before the Industrial Revolution began in the 18th century. Levels of nitrous oxide, the number three greenhouse gas produced by burning fuels and by industrial processes, also rose to a record with a 0.25 percent gain in 2006.
Levels are 320 parts per billion, 19 percent above pre-industrial times. But levels of methane, which comes from sources such as rotting vegetation in landfills, termites, rice
566

paddies and the digestive process of cows, dipped 0.06 percent to 1,782 parts per billion in 2006. Methane levels are 155 percent higher than before the Industrial Revolution.
2241
The increased carbon dioxide concentration level has created an energy radiation imbalance. Less energy is being re-radiated out into space than in incoming radiation from the Sun. This imbalance is causing the atmosphere and oceans to warm up: the socalled global warming.
2242
The natural carbon cycle maintained a rough balance so the concentration level was roughly steady. Then fossil fuel burning caused the level to start rising and this has continued at an accelerating rate and will continue to rise until emissions stop. We have introduced a means of increasing the level but we have no means of reducing it. So the increasing level is irreversible on a societal time scale. There have been ups and downs of temperature on the evolutionary time scale but these natural variations do not appear to be the primary factor in the rapid increase during the past century.
2243
that is not possible, as the experts acknowledge, but that does not stop politicians and business ‘grasping at straws’. The Stern Report deals with the estimated economic consequences of not reducing emissions appreciably and rapidly. It gives the erroneous impression that such reductions will control climate change. It is the judgment of scientists like Lovelock that reducing emissions will just slow it down but not sufficiently to avoid many deleterious effects.
2244 Heinberg says (p15) that energy is recycled. That is a common assertion but it is misleading. Some of the bond energy in carbon is dissipated to the atmosphere as heat in combustion yielding carbon dioxide. Later in the cycle, a packet of energy from insolation provides the energy input to increase the bond energy of the resulting carbohydrate in the plant.
2245
Plants harness energy from insolation. In the natural turn of events, this energy is returned to the atmosphere for re-radiating out into space when the plant dies and rots. An alternative is that an animal eats the plant. This just adds a stage to the process but the result is the same. The same applies if the biomass is turned into a fuel. A PV does not affect that principle as it captures some of the insolation and this energy is re-radiated back out into space when used. It does not make a significant difference to the energy
567

process if where the energy is used is far from where it was captured. This lifed energy process is invariably associated with the carbon cycle through living matter and animals.
2246
Some call the Amazon rain forest the lungs of the earth. There is appreciable worry that it may be dying with dire consequences. ‘Researchers: Warming may change
Amazon’ by MICHAEL ASTOR, Associated Press Writer, Fri Dec 29, 2006. RIO DE
JANEIRO, Brazil - Global warming could spell the end of the world's largest remaining tropical rain forest, transforming the Amazon into a grassy savanna before end of the century, researchers said.
2247
De-forestation is reducing the carbon dioxide absorption slightly.
2248
The flow of carbon dioxide into the oceans has a significant impact on the operation of the marine ecosystem. The additional intake due to fossil fuel burning has noticeably disrupted the natural marine chain because of the acidification. http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/23138.html
‘Oceans' growing acidity alarms scientists’ by Les Blumenthal, McClatchy Newspapers,
December 16, 2007. At risk are sea creatures up and down the food chain, from the tiniest phytoplankton and zooplankton to whales, from squid to salmon to crabs, coral, oysters and clams. The oceans are already 30 percent more acidic than they were at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, as they absorb 22 tons of carbon dioxide a day. By the end of the century, they could be 150 percent more acidic.
2249
respiration
2250
the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere has varied appreciably at evolutionary time scales but that is not relevant here as we are discussing what has happened in recent millennia, a snapshot on the evolutionary time scale
2251 this is just one example of where our activities have perturbed a natural process
2253 http://www.nature. com/news/ 2007/071017/ full/449778a. html;jsessionid= 95
2EC5BBCCDD456E7BD19 8D7D083EE90
News Feature ‘Climate change: What's in the rising tide? ‘ The nitrogen cycle rarely features in the grim litany of things at risk from global warming. Nick Lane reports on research that might change this — with grave consequences for ocean chemistry.’ This
568

article deals with some unexpected disruptions to the nitrogen cycle that could be due to climate change.
2254
that increase plant growth but do not improve soil fertility.
2255
That entails an appreciable eco cost in constructing and operating the facilities and for transportation of the fertilizers to the farms.
2256 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acid_rain provides appreciable detail of its occurrence and remedial efforts. There has been mitigation success in US and EU but it is bad in
China, India and Mexico.
2257 Wikipedia: Nitrogen
2258 Gulf of Mexico and Baltic Sea are two noteworthy ones but there are about 150 world wide.
2260 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone provides details.
2261
I expect meteorologists have appreciable understanding of where and when hurricanes are most likely but I believe there is residual uncertainty. It is sufficient for our purposes to know they do occur and understand what then happens.
2262
Lambert provides a description of the life of a hurricane to illustrate the Second Law with the dispersal of the energy in the wind. Surprisingly, he does not comment on the initiation of the hurricane.
2263
There is an increasing degree of order in the wind (so entropy decrease) due to this heat (physical) energy input.
2264
this process is an example of the Fourth Law in operation.
2265
this is a classic dispersive process tending to disorder, so entropy increase. This is the
Second Law in operation after the Fourth Law set the hurricane in train. Equilibrium will be restored when the winds die down. The life of this hurricane then ends.
2266 To go with earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis as well a tomato!
2267 its life is similar to that for iron ore; an example considered in detail later. The hurricane is a natural process. Refining iron ore is a synthetic process, so comes at an eco cost.
2269
So the Fourth Law in operation.
2270 So the Second Law following naturally.
569

2271 That consists at the microscopic level of fast molecules transferring momentum to slow molecules.
2273
This type of natural plus civilization disaster is classified as an Wexelblat disaster.
2274
with the Second Law applying to both Katrina to produce waste heat and to the infrastructure to produce exacerbating waste material. That is, we are looking at the impact of one system on another.
2275
this growth is transitory but the damages are taking a long time and many resources to repair, so an appreciable future eco cost has been incurred. But a degree of order is being built up as the Fourth Law applies. How transient this order is will only be determined in due course! I am sure there are many who worry about more hurricanes like Katrina, especially as climate change builds up.
2276
New Orleans being the biggest and also the most vulnerable because it was partly below sea level.
2277
The construction of New Orleans altered the geodiversity of the region so enabling more destruction by the winds and storm surges.
2278 The works carried out in and around New Orleans certainly had unintended consequences. The irony is that the warnings shouted by knowledgeable people over decades fell on the deaf ears of the powerful.
2279 There are other hurricane (cyclone) prone regions that are much better prepared to cope with these traumas.
2280
BBC NEWS, Monday, 30 July 2007 ‘Hurricane boost due to warm sea' ‘ By Matt
McGrath, BBC environmental reporter. A new analysis of Atlantic hurricanes says their numbers have doubled over the last century. The study says that warmer sea surface temperatures and changes in wind patterns caused by climate change are fuelling much of the increase.
2282
They essentially evoke no eco cost.
2283
This is an example of ecological succession whereby there is the tendency to return to climax. The ecological disorder caused by the hurricane is followed by the tendency to restore natural order. This is an example of the Second Law being followed by the Fourth
Law.
570

2284 But it does evoke an eco cost in the handling of food, water and wastes by synthetic installations.
2286
It has its own virtual reality!
2287
One of the major points to emerge from this examination is that many processes installed by humans have had unintended consequences. The release of greenhouse gases by fossil fuel burning is receiving due prominence now but it is by no means the only example. For example, there is growing concern about what chemical products are doing to animal, including human, health.
2288
The circuitous financial cost is an airy figure while the eco cost is an irrepayable reality.
2289
This is a reminder that we are considering only what happens in ecological operations.
2291
The Consequence Axiom
2292
The law of conservation of mass is not often mentioned but it is also relevant to the issues taken up in this essay.
2293 this applies regardless of whether we examine the total process or only part of it. It is hard to envisage at times because often heat is dissipated to the environment during a process: that heat has to be counted as part of the process.
2294 They tend to tire during the day. That is, they believe they lose energy and they do, as heat dissipated from the body as well as by any manual work done. That subjective feeling tends to hide the fact that all your energy output is equal to the energy you acquired from food.
2295
They rarely think about the fact that it comes from the food they eat because that process occurs naturally.
2296
Remember that we are talking about physical energy not intellectual energy. Lambert describes this diversion.
2298
The fact that the energy out from a process is less than the energy in must bewilder a lot of people as it seems to conflict with the First Law. It does not when we take into account that there is some energy dissipated as well as that outlet.
571

2299 A water turbine provides a useful illustrative example. The water at inlet to the turbine has gravitational potential + pressure + kinetic energy because of the preceding
Fourth Law manifestation. Its deflection through the turbine blades means that some of the kinetic energy is transformed to mechanical energy in the turbine. The water drives the turbine. The pressure + kinetic energy of the water at exit from the turbine is lower than at inlet. The energy decrease in the water flow is largely offset by the energy increase in the turbine. The flow has done work on the turbine. But the flow over the blades gives rise to boundary layer losses done to the viscosity of the water. In simpler terms, the water scrubs over the blades. These losses are manifest as turbulent wakes behind the blades that dissipate to waste heat in the water. Generally then, something like
8% of the energy available in the water at inlet to the turbine is dissipated to heat up the water slightly. The remaining 92% is the energy in the rotating turbine plus that in the water at outlet.
2301
Lambert ‘Second Law of Thermodynamics’
2302
this is a simplification used to illustrate what happens. Bear in mind that the process occurs in a material system.
2303 it has potential to flow because it is above the local equilibrium. A preceding generative flow (Fourth Law) has established that potential.
2304 these examples cover stages in the respective entire energy flow process.
2305
You can pick it up – by using some of your energy. That is the Fourth Law in operation: it is an open system. Dropping the object is a closed system in operation.
2306 You can heat it up in the microwave using electrical energy – Fourth Law. The cooling is a closed system in operation.
2307
You have to use a lot of energy to fix the puncture then inflate the tire again.
2308
Gravitational potential energy of the object, heat energy in the coffee, pressure energy in the inflated tire.
2309
the energy is dissipated to the environment at some stage during the process or at exit
2310
which is a force
2311
which is the reference equilibrium in this example
572

2312 as the force applied by gravity accelerates it
2313
the small temperature increase would be very difficult to measure
2314
if the air is cooler than the body
2315
the constant acceleration due to gravity is a fact that physicists learnt only a few centuries ago
2316
acquired over the past century or so.
2317
a bit in advance of aerodynamics
2318
with belated recognition by some of the unintended consequences
2319
the negative, unintended consequences have been largely ignored
2320
as part of science and engineering education.
2321
like the tire and coffee examples already mentioned.
2322
It is a moot point as to how it came into existence!
2324
Here we have two energetic processes in conjunction. The wave gives some kinetic energy (speed) to the surfer (so Fourth Law acting) as it breaks (so Second Law applying to the wave). The surfer loses that speed at the end of the run (as the Second Law follows the Fourth) .
2325 which requires an industrial energy input
2327 ‘Entropy Is Simple — If We Avoid The Briar Patches!’ Frank L. Lambert, Professor
Emeritus (Chemistry), Occidental College, Los Angeles
2328
this means that the parcel of potential energy is in temporary store (although this can be for millions of years) and activation restarts the dispersive flow process
2329 this implies, of course, that the system is away from equilibrium to start with. That is synonymous with available energy: exergy. This implies that there was some preceding generative process, so the Fourth Law applied.
2330
As the state of the energy
2331
in the material, not the energy, at the macroscopic level.
2332
iron ore processing is an example of this examined below
2333
this matter is subject to appreciable scientific discourse which is irrelevant to the subject of this essay.
573

2334 that should not be taken to imply that the entropy of Gaia has been decreasing in recent centuries. On the contrary, the argument is made here that Gaia’s entropy has been increasing rapidly since industrialization started really disrupting the ecosystem.
2336
more to the point, we examine later how intellectual energy inputs have often had unintended consequences. That is, the intellectual energy inputs have actually increased entropy in the Body when we expected them to decrease it.
2337
We are not considering what happened to the Mind of civilization. We are just considering what happened to the Body of civilization and its host, Gaia.
2338
From the Brain.
2339
In the transformation of the chemical energy in the coal to waste heat
2340
The later skyscraper example helps to reinforce this crucial point.
2341
But the perceived worth would be higher. More electricity would be provided for the same amount of coal. This improvement would have been due to the increase in the intellectual energy input.
2343
This, of course, includes the case where the parcel of energy begins life by thermonuclear fusion in the Sun. A rock precariously balance on a mountain side is another example. It has gravitational potential energy, possibly as the result of a past volcanic eruption. I could activate this example of the Second Law in operation by pushing on the rock. It would then run down hill, exchanging potential energy for kinetic energy and dissipated heat until it hit the bottom.
2344
It can be argued that when I think through an issue there is a tendency for my thoughts on the issue to be more ordered. That may well be the situation for isolated cases but it hardly a generalization.
2346
For good or bad
2347
for example, the Brain has had a major impact on the order instilled in the materials in the A380 airliner.
2349
so having the potential to disperse when activated (ignited) in air.
2350
This dispersion will occur at the various stages throughout the process so the parcel effectively breaks in to pieces en route. The sum of the energy in the pieces will equal that input at the origin (First Law).
574

2351 So the Second Law applies.
2352
Heinberg talks about available energy cycles on p15-16 but traces the life of energy down the ecological chain. There is no such thing as a cycling energy process. An energy process is always life limited.
2354
coal and the other fossil fuels provide concentrated forms of energy. Insolation is a very dilute form of energy so is at a major disadvantage when used as an alternative to the combustion of fossil fuels.
2355
Through application of human knowledge and devised tools
2356
This is work for civilization, not the ecosystem. This is an example of human perception rather than reality. It will have value in our opinion, once it is mined, but the consequences of the associated pollution have been largely ignored up until now.
2357
A characteristic of the coal, a degree of order resulting from geo-biological forces.
This is the result of application of the Fourth Law. This is the reality for the parcel.
2358
It was a common view that the order of the Body was increased through the input of this intellectual energy in discovering the coal seam. The view was that we had these natural resources to freely power our life style. This was a mistake. It is now recognized that there are two sides to this coin. The electricity generated from coal often heats homes. The CO2 produced by using coal is heating the atmosphere and the oceans! The eco cost of using the coal is much more than was appreciated at the time. This impact on the climate is a consequential decrease in the order of Gaia. The result of this combination of contrary order changes is questionable over the life of the power plant.
But society is going to have to adapt to the irreversible climate change, come hell or high water!
2359
The previous stages saw insolation transforming to chemical energy in coal over eons. We now recognize that as being a manifestation of the Fourth Law, the establishment of the potential to provide heat energy by combustion.
2361
One of the main points we are making is that society has had a misperception of the value of coal for centuries and we are only now waking up to its inherent disadvantages.
575

2362 doing work for humans does not contribute to the operation of the ecosystem. On the contrary, work done in manufacturing converts material resources in to goods that end up as exacerbating waste after a short useful (in the opinion of humans) life.
2363
And to provide greenhouse gas emissions!
2364
Gaia abounds with examples of deviations from equilibrium and this is what makes it a living organism. Lakes, rivers, mountains are examples to go with mineral deposits, forests, microbes and humans.
2366
But we were misled
2367
We are looking at what human activities have done to the ecosystem. A known deposit that has not been mined does not enter into this consideration.
2368
The reality is unchanged.
2370
Even though we did not appreciate the unintended consequences!
2371
Of unknowingly contributing to global entropic growth of Gaia.
2372
as we like to believe even though some of the results cast grave doubts on that assertion
2373 But it can lead to unintended consequences as we are learning!
2375 This human cleverness is no different in principle than, for example, the cleverness of bees in pollinating flowers and other plants. What the bees do is a natural good. Human cleverness, on the other hand does not necessarily produce a good result.
2376
This differs in principle from the normal application of the Fourth Law
2378
just as a tree has reached its present potential at a prior eco cost
2379 this augmentation varies appreciably with circumstances.
2381
Quite often long distances by truck, rail or ship, so a dependency on the availability of fuels derived from oil.
2382
Here we are dealing with the functioning of this system to supply electrical energy.
2383
A generative process has provided this potential.
2384
Remember this intellectual energy input came at a prior eco cost so its impact on
Gaia’s entropy has already been taken into account. It is contributing significantly to the worth of the system without significantly increasing the entropy of Gaia. It is essentially acting as a catalyst.
576

2385 It entails an appreciable eco cost, most of which was not taken into account in deciding to install the plant.
2386
the opening up of some coal mines has resulted in mountain tops being removed with the associated tailings filling in nearby streams.
Digging up hard-to-get coal will devastate Appalachia, where huge mountaintop-removal mines have already buried 700 miles of streams and 400,000 acres of forests. (Mountaintop-removal is a particularly destructive form of mining in which entire mountains are blasted apart to expose the coal seams inside; the rubble is typically dumped in nearby valleys.) Instead of strengthening oversight of this type of mining, the Bush administration has loosened regulations and allow it to expand. One recent study estimated that if this practice continues, within 40 years the region disemboweled by mining will be approximately the size of Rhode Island.
2387
these were incurred in constructing the machinery and in educating the driver. It is, of course, extremely difficult to quantify the eco cost of the driver and the impact of skill on the operation. But that does not prevent recognition of that fact that there is an eco cost – but society at large is blind to most of it!
2388
and generally comes at a financial cost
2389
The company contracted to mine the coal may well do it very efficiently because it has modern machinery and skilled personnel. That does not, however, alter the fact that
Gaia’s entropy will increase. It would just improve the worth of the operation for this entropy increase.
2390 There is no doubt that the rapid increase in collective knowledge has been facilitated by the stored word augmenting the written word in recent decades. This growth of knowledge has made a major contribution to the growth in the construction of the transient infrastructure of civilization, at the expense of the draw down of the natural bounty. That is, this intellectual energy increase contributed appreciably to the increase in the order of the Body, not necessarily in a worthwhile manner. But that era seems to be over in many regions. The entropic growth has peaked and more problems are emerging while there is a reducing amount of natural bounty for carrying out remedial action. And this change in direction is requiring relearning with more emphasis on the basics rather than advances.
577

2391
This delusion has been a major factor in the waste of this valuable, irreplaceable resource. It also contributed to the unintended consequence of the disruption to climate caused by greenhouse gas emissions.
2392
Except by those who suffer the consequences. There is increasing concern about the health predicaments of those who live near power stations. China is now the outstanding example but it was a noticeable predicament in the English midlands over a century ago.
2393
The operators have increasingly had to take on this responsibility in recent years in some circumstances that tend to vary appreciably from country to country. They continue to evade this responsibility where they can so that it does not degrade their competitiveness, so profitability.
2394
Commonly regarded as a good until now when the dangerous consequences of burning coal are now being appreciated by the powerful.
2395
The stage of preparing the coal for firing.
2396
My body is a system that produces entropy. It takes in low entropy energy (in food), air and potable water and discharges high entropy heat, waste matter and contaminated water.
2397 Prigogine p63
2399
we are now having to accept that coal burning has contributed appreciably to irreversible global warming. We were not as clever as we thought!
2401 They serve a useful purpose for some people but do not contribute to the operation of the ecosystem. Some people view this as a modification to the operation of the ecosystem. We keep them separate here because these industrial operations evoke an eco cost whilst the natural ones do not. That is why it has been appropriate to talk in terms of the Body of civilization and Gaia.
2402
In a geological time frame
2403
the plants may be in operation for thirty or forty years so the fact that it is only transitory is overlooked by most.
578

2404 We are concentrating in this essay on the ecological reality that building up and maintaining the Body of civilization entails on overall loss of natural bounty as indicated by Gaia’s entropic growth. However, we should not lose sight of the fact that this process does gives us many worthwhile facilities, goods and services to meet our needs. The order of the Body of civilization increased appreciably in recent centuries. The fact is, however, that we have now degraded this process with our unnecessary wants so Body entropy is now growing, disorder is increasing, and there is reason to believe Body entropy growth has peaked.
2406
This is a technical term for the available energy used mainly in Europe.
2407
It is like lighting a match
2408
unfortunately this is not readily available even at this stage due to obfuscation by the powerful. Geosequestration may be used in due course, when proven and it gains support from business and governments.
2409
It is a condemnation of our society that we have not done this to a significant extent.
It has been a recognized predicament for centuries but little has been done to alleviate the consequences, largely because the operators have not been held morally and financially responsible in the vast majority of cases. The achievements of the EPA in the U.S., particularly in relation to particulates and sulfur, have not been matched in China.
2410 I make that assertion because I am aware of the wide ranging and long standing scientific evidence, theories and views supporting it. The latest IPCC report reduces the uncertainty appreciably. I know there are skeptics although I do not know whether it is because of ignorance or vested interests but their views are not worth considering here.
2411
Electric Power Research Institute
Mercury Flue Gas Characterization
Benefits: Federal mercury regulations will be required for coal plants for the first time in
2010. This program’s data and tools will improve decision making to help members develop cost-effective emission control, compliance monitoring, and fuel purchasing strategies through enhanced sampling and characterization of power plant mercury emissions.’ This is another example of where regulatory measures in the U.S. are being
579

put in place to mitigate unintended consequences of industrialization at a remedial eco cost.
2412
Environmental Working Group ‘Mercury Falling’
An Analysis of Mercury Pollution from Coal-Burning Power Plants
Coal-burning power plants are the single largest source of mercury pollution, and the only major source the government does not regulate. Mercury in seafood is one of the major resulting predicaments.
2413
‘Burning Wetlands Unleash Sequestered Mercury in Wake of Climate Change
‘ Michigan State University, Wednesday 23 August 2006
Climate change appears to be contributing to the waking of a dangerous sleeping giant in the most northern wetlands of North America - mercury. Released into the atmosphere most prodigiously with the launching of the industrial age, the toxic element falls back onto Earth, and accumulates particularly in North American wetlands. A Michigan State
University researcher working closely with the US Geological Survey finds wildfires, growing more frequent and intense, are unleashing this sequestered mercury at levels up to 15 times greater than originally calculated.
This article describes the rapid rise in wildfires globally. http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article2919643.ece
‘More 'megafires' to come, say scientists’ By Geoffrey Lean, Environment Editor, 02
September 2007. Fires of unprecedented ferocity are sweeping around the world, fuelled by global warming and misguided environmentalism. However,Derek Jensen in his book
‘Strangely Like War’, details how small wild fires are part of the natural operation of the ecosystem these recent large ones are due to forest mismanagement resulting from logging for commercial purposes, coupled to global warming, another ‘achievement’ of
Big business!
2414
Most noticeably in China now.
Emissions of sulfer dioxide in the first six months of
2007 reached about 12.6 million tonnes, down .88 percent from the same period last year, a report issued by the State Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA) said.
580

2415 This was so bad in the English Midlands in the middle of the 19 th Century that improvements were forced on industry. The same situation now exists in parts of China.
It is ironical that particulate emissions seem to have caused Global Dimming that has lessened the Global Warming. Reduction in the particulate emissions to reduce respiratory predicaments is likely to increase Global Warming.
2416
Pumping the carbon dioxide into underground depositories. This is sometimes used to assist oil recovery but it is not yet a well-proven measure. In addition, possible adoption is being resisted by many companies because of cost.
2417
One of the largest carbon dioxide sequestration projects is at the 80 square mile
Weyburn oil field in Saskatchewan, Canada. The respectable medium sized oil field orginally had a total of 200 million tons of oil in it of which 80% has been removed. It is hoped that 14 million tons of CO2 can be injected over a 15 year period to 'recover' about
19 million tons of oil-a mere 10% surplus (which in turn will be burnt to make 60 million tons of CO2). Weyburn has very good geology for CO2 sequestration with an 'anhydride cap' however it is expected that this project will effectively store only about 77% of the
CO2 pumped into it. There is clearly a need to do realistic eco sums!
2418 The associated human suffering has been regarded as a price to be paid for the standard of living enjoyed by the well off! Desultory attempts to recompense people for this suffering is being made in some countries.
2419
Home heating and air-conditioning makes life so much more comfortable, especially as future generations will largely pay for this current exuberance.
2422 The use of a large amount scarce drinking water for cooling in the Yallourn power station is causing appreciable concern in Victoria currently. Melbournians believe they should use it for their gardens!
2423
Just think of all the stuff that is produced that really does not serve a useful purpose and is then thrown out.
2424
remember that GDP includes the production of unnecessary stuff! It is regarded by the ‘bean counters’ as contributing to a ‘higher standard of living’. It is regarded by the
Realists as a stupid waste of our limited natural bounty.
581

2426 There are circumstances where DC transmission is better than the common AC transmission.
2428
Alternatively, the electricity could be used in a bar radiator to heat a room. This is no different in relation to what happens to that energy but the perceived value will depend on the circumstances. It could, alternatively, power this computer.
2430
So satisfying the First Law.
2431
This is the end of thinking by most people!
2432
So economic accounting does not take into account what the industrial energy is used for. It also presumes nature gave the industrial energy in the coal as a gift to the community! It is common for the government to use the money received from exploitation of this exhaustible natural resource on other infrastructure for the community.
2433
This covers the draw down of the coal and the impact of the wastes produced.
2434
It has been common for natural gas to be flared (burnt) at the well head because of the difficulty of getting it to a plant where it can be put to work. Installing a pipeline so that it could be used in a plant would make no difference to what its draw down does to the natural bounty. It would still have contributed to the entropic growth of Gaia.
2436 That in itself is an important lesson!
2438 Too late, climate change has been unknowingly initiated
2439 http://www.washingt onpost.com/ wp-dyn/content/ article/2007/ 07/29/AR20070729
01078.html
German Hard-Coal Production to Cease by 2018
When Subsidies Expire, So Will an Industry That Sustained Generations in the Ruhr
By
Washington
Monday, July 30, 2007; A10
Post
Craig
Foreign
Whitlock
Service
The hard coal mining in the industrialized Ruhr has drawn down a major proportion of the hard coal bounty with unaccounted environmental damage that will entail a
582

continuing draw down for appreciable maintenance and remedial action. The economic argument for reducing the financial subsides that enabled some of the mines to continue operating despite cheaper imports is roughly consistent with the ecological arguments here. The entropy is so high that it is necessary to prioritize activities according to their worth.
2440
after all, the coal is one of the benevolences of nature that we should use, regardless.
2441
They are now talking about using geosequestration to put the carbon back into the ground after digging it up to get its energy!!
2443
A characteristic of all living organisms.
2444
The eco cost would be very little if the food was largely out of my garden. It would be appreciable if I have fish from New Zealand and chips from Belgium followed by an orange from California and Brazilian coffee.
2445
There are many scientific papers that discuss energy flow alone. This leads to a gross misunderstanding that has had horrendous impact on what human activities have done to the ecosystem.
2447 There are some very bad examples of this. In West Virginia, the mountain top is being pushed in to fill a lush valley and the stream running through it to gain access to the coal.
2448 annual emissions from a typical coal plant include 10,000 tons of sulfur dioxide, the major cause of acid rain; 10,200 tons of nitrogen oxide, a major contributor to smog in addition to the carbon dioxide that is a major contributor to global warming
2449 500 tons of small particles, which cause lung damage and other respiratory problems
2450
‘ Plants' Cleanup May Create Side-Effect’ August 26, 2007, By Anna Jo Bratton,
Associated Press Writer. ‘With Coal Production, Cleaner Skies Could Mean More
Landfills; Treated Ash Has to Go Somewhere ‘ This article comments on how attempts to ease pollutant problems in coal ash has unintended consequences that can actually make the overall situation worse. Typical figures for a plant per year are 225 pounds of arsenic;
114 pounds of lead; and many other toxic heavy metals, including 170 pounds of mercury, which can cause birth defects, brain damage and other ailments.
583

http://biz.yahoo. com/ap/070826/ clean_air_ dirty_land. html?.v=3
2451
there can be cases where, for example, the slag is put to good use. That would entail the use of other resources for transport etc but it may reduce the impact on entropy growth. That it, the use of the slag may be worthwhile in a realistic sense.
2452
Which is not affected by what the electricity is used for.
2454
This separation of roles is a type of simplification used to establish points. It can, however, lead to major misperceptions by those who do not understand the technical issues implied.
2455
Governments talk about their ‘energy policy’. So do bodies like IEA (International
Energy Agency). This accent on energy is understandable because of the influence of energy on the operation of industrial society. It does, however, lead to misunderstanding, as noted.
2456
In fact there is copious evidence of corporations using a range of means to avoid paying for externalities. They do this to be competitive with the aim of improving their profitability. As their competition employ similar strategies, the net result is an improved ability to rape the ecosystem! They are cutting their own throats because the natural capital is being increasingly run down, often to produce wasteful stuff. They will eventually put themselves out of work.
2458
That, of course, is a simplification but the waste heat from industrial systems has an insignificant impact on the ecosystem.
2459 Like powering the construction of the Golden Gate Bridge which then consumes many natural resources for its maintenance. It continues to make a contribution to entropic growth.
2460
The impact of the emission of GHG on climate change is being recognized but there are many others. The impact on human health is causing concern
2462
heat
2463
plants
2464
like lighting an empty skyscraper at night!
584

2466 There is generally well-developed expertise directing these operations. It is not their fault that the eco cost of the system has not been realistically taken into account.
2467
We are now going to have to learn to live with the unintended consequences.
2468
The work that is done is worth the irrevocable eco cost entailed.
2469
A composite satellite view of the Earth at night highlights that mistake.
2471
Second Law
2472
often including free desalination.
2473
Fourth Law
2474
the oxidation process generates the heat that is required for regulation.
2475
Tendency towards maturity.
2476
To a degree. The oceans and forests also play a major part in this balance by acting as carbon sinks, so long as they were not over loaded by fossil fuel burning being too much of a source. Unfortunately, civilization has gone too far in that regard.
2477
the burning of fossil fuels has disrupted this balance in recent centuries with climate change being the consequence
2478 This is not to imply that sufficient is being done. It is mainly talk, with money in the chair! Even the talk is misplaced as it mainly deals with trying to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, in the mistaken belief that will combat climate change. At best, it will only slow climate change down. But that is a sound objective. It should be given a high priority globally in the use of the remaining natural bounty. Unfortunately, the heaviest polluters are too busy chasing economic growth, so accelerating entropic growth.
2479 This means simply that there is a reduced capability of the ecosystem to meet the demands for the operation of the Body of civilization.
2480
K. Bradsher and D. Barboza (2006) report that very fine coal dust originating in
China, containing arsenic and other toxic elements, is now detected drifting around the globe in increasing amounts.
‘China to promise cuts in greenhouse gases’ http://environment. newscientist. com/article/ dn11184?DCMP= NLC-nletter& nsref=dn11184
585

provides details of governments plans to reduce pollution as the economy grows. Figures show the lack of http://www.livescience.com/forcesofnature/070306_asia_storms.html
success.
‘Asian Pollution Affects Pacific Storms’ By Randolph E. Schmid, Associated Press, 06
March 2007 WASHINGTON Pollution from Asia is helping generate stronger storms over the North Pacific, according to new research. Changes in the North Pacific storm track could have an impact on weather across the Northern Hemisphere. Satellite measurements have shown an increase in tiny particles generated from coal burning in
China and India in recent decades, researchers report in Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences.
2481
The Chinese, Japanese, Koreans and even some on the west coast of America are having to pay the cost, health wise, as the resulting pollutants are blowing their way.
They do not like the ‘free’ gift!
2483
Sewerage systems do but they are artificial extensions to my body functions
2485
an example of the Life Axiom for a synthetic system.
2486
The Fourth Law in operation
2487
that is order to disorder, a manifestation of the Second Law
2488
it does work in driving the turbine/generators
2490
Nevertheless, all that we perceive to be the destructiveness of corporate culture in relation to nature is not the consequence of its power, or its capacity for dominating nature (“taming,” as it was once put, as if what we were dealing with was the lion act at the circus). Believing in powerful corporate evildoers as the primary source of our problems forces us to think in cartoons. THE IDEA THAT WE HAVE powerful corporate villains to thank for the sorry state of the natural world is what Francis Bacon called an “idol of the tribe.” According to Bacon, an idol is a truth based on insufficient evidence but maintained by constant affirmation within the tribe of believers. One of those was morality.
2491 http://www.csmonito r.com/2007/ 0731/p01s05- wogi.html
586

’Earth too warm? Bury the CO2. Texas alone could hold 40 years' worth of US emissions.’
By Mark Clayton | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor, July 31, 2007
This article gives some indication of the research into geosequestration and the views of the associated personnel on the enormity of the task and its limited scope. It may well make a small, transient contribution to mitigation of climate change whilst meeting some of the demand for electricity. That is, its draw down of natural bounty may be deemed worthwhile in comparison to alternatives like nuclear power.
2492 It will possibly make a worthwhile contribution to climate change mitigation so long as it is coupled with a reduction in the use of coal.
2493
A workshop/conference on Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) was held in
Kolkata, India, during November 12 - 15, 2006, under the auspices of the
US-India Energy Dialogue Coal Working Group (CWG), and the Asia Pacific
Partnership (APP). The workshop was sponsored by the US Department of
Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and India's Ministry of Coal (MOC) and Coal India Ltd, India (CIL).The purpose of the workshop was to accelerate the implementation of UCG in
India. The meeting attracted nearly 100 interested parties from the United
States, India, China, Japan and Australia.
2495
The U.S. coal industry is lobbying for subsidies. The hook is that coal can be converted into a liquid fuel that can be used in diesel cars and trucks, as well as jet engines, boats and ships. It is a typical, myopic view of industry. They are content to let market forces or regulation determine their strategies and to hell with the consequences, so long as they do not interfere with their profitability. http://www.pntonline.com/opinion/coal_10834___article.html/fuel_industry.html
2496
‘Western states agree to control greenhouse gas emissions’, Puget Sound Business
Journal (Seattle) - February 26, 2007. Governors of Washington and four other western states have agreed to cut greenhouse gas emissions with a market-based program. The
587

governors of Arizona, California, New Mexico, Oregon and Washington signed the agreement at the annual winter meeting of the National Governors Association. Florida is now making similar moves. It is ironical the some U.S. states are aiming to cut the emissions that are exacerbating global climate change even as China is rapidly increasing their horrendous emissions!
2497
The Durban Declaration on Carbon Trading
As representatives of people's movements and independent organisations, we reject the claim that carbon trading will halt the climate crisis. This crisis has been caused more than anything else by the mining of fossil fuels and the release of their carbon to the oceans, air, soil and living things. Through this process of creating a new commodity -- carbon – the Earth's ability and capacity to support a climate conducive to life and human societies is now passing into the same corporate hands that are destroying the climate.
2498
there is a lot of confusion associated with the term ‘emissions’. It is the amount of carbon dioxide emitted in a year. It is a rate of emission. Many articles give the impression (erroneously) that reducing emissions will reduce global warming. They will only reduce the rate at which the carbon dioxide concentration level rises. The best it can do is slow the warming down slightly. Discussions are generally about synthetic emissions resulting from fossil fuel combustion. The natural emissions from animal, including humans, respiration and the oxidation of decaying plant matter are generally taken for granted. This has led to a lot of misunderstanding.
2499 Immediate Release, February 27, 2007.Science Panel Outlines Roadmap for
Reducing Risks from Climate Change. NEW YORK, NY (February 27, 2007) The
United Nations Foundation (UN Foundation) and Sigma Xi, the Scientific Research
Society, released today “Confronting Climate Change: Avoiding the Unmanageable and
Managing the Unavoidable, ” the final report of the Scientific Expert Group on Climate
Change and Sustainable Development. The report, prepared as input for the upcoming meeting of the UN’s Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD), outlines a roadmap for preventing unmanageable climate changes and adapting to the degree of change that can no longer be avoided.’ This report calls for a major global effort for
588

mitigation of and adaptation for severe climate change. It would be quite an extraordinary achievement if even some of the proposed activities were under way in the foreseeable future, especially as they would require major energy usage while GHG emissions were being reduced.
2500
It is interesting that there has been some business reaction against the proposed installation of more dirty coal-burning power stations in Texas. This has led to the cancellation of some of the proposals.
2501
‘China could become net importer of thermal coal by 2008, Source: Mineweb, 17
April 2007
For the first time in history, China could buy more coal than it exports in 2008, three years earlier than originally forecast. Coal prices may surge 42% in five years as China could buy more than it exports in 2008 for the first time in history.’ This prediction is doubtless based on the presumption of business as usual. It makes no allowance for the likely impact of the growing horrendous environmental problems. Why should it? They would not have an understanding of entropy. They are in the business of making money, not living with reality.
2503 the sulfer dioxide is a spontaneous generation of a pollutant as it leads to sulferic acid formation in the atmosphere so contributes to global entropy growth as it increases ecosystem disorder.
2504 http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Coal-The-Dark-
Side.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
‘World's Coal Dependency Hits Environment’ By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS,
November 4, 2007, TAIYUAN, China (AP) -- It takes five to 10 days for the pollution from China's coal-fired plants to make its way to the United States, like a slow-moving storm. It shows up as mercury in the bass and trout caught in Oregon's Willamette River.
It increases cloud cover and raises ozone levels. And along the way, it contributes to acid rain in Japan and South Korea and health problems everywhere from Taiyuan to the
United States.’ This article details the other side of the coin to the booming economic
589

growth in China powered by coal. It is devastating ecosystem and human health so as to produce stuff. Many of the residents enjoy a higher materialistic standard of living – whilst they are still living!
2505
and a new power station is coming into operation every eight days!
2506
In 2005, China became the leading source of sulfur dioxide pollution globally, the
State Environmental Protection Administration, or SEPA, reported last year, with Japan,
Korea and the west coast of America being the recipients.
2509
With climate change causing even the politicians and business to take notice
2510
Environmentalists have been decrying this disruption of the ecology for ages with little effect.
2511
It is mind boggling to contemplate the predicaments of maintaining the infrastructure of London when the main sources of industrial energy, the fossil fuels, are in disrepute and other elements in the available natural bounty in decline. And London is only one parasitic city amongst many!
2512
Lovelock laments on what civilization has done to Gaia in ‘the Revenge of Gaia’ but, surprisingly, does not comment on the impossibility of undoing much of the damage.
2514
With the returning trend for using coal to power economic growth, some analysts now believe that peak coal will occur in the not too distant future.
2515
the financial value of these goods and services is included in the GDP, even when they meet unnecessary ‘wants’ that end as waste. GDP is one side of the ledger only!
2516 The number crunchers have yet to devise a method for allowing for natural capital draw down in a realistic fashion. The trivial royalties have certainly not done this.
2518 Which, in principle, should go towards providing community infrastructure and services because the coal is deemed to be their resource.
2519
The managers and shareholders enjoying an unsustainable standard of living in the normal course of events.
2521
As a reminder, this term is commonly used where the source of the energy is insolation: the energy income we can rely on. No doubt many amongst the masses believe that industrial energy can be renewed. So they waste it without a quibble. They do not think about the fact that it invariably ends up as waste heat when used.
590

2522 it is hard to know whether those Cassandras proposing ‘renewables’ as a way to meet future electrical energy demand are misinformed or have vested interests. They invariably convey the impression that their proposals are sound by down playing the time and natural resources required to install, operate and maintain the systems needed to generate the electricity from the ‘renewable’ source. There are numerous plausible quantitative assessments that indicate that wind farms can not provide a substantial amount of the industrial energy demanded by civilization.
2524
The controversy attending wind farm proposals are generally limited to political, economic and some technical and environmental issues. There is generally the implication that the provision of more electrical energy is worthwhile. Market forces are left to define electricity demand, so encouraging a high eco cost. The illumination of a dead city center at night is an example of a destructive market force. There are much more worthwhile uses of the lives of those parcels of energy.
2525
Consequently the eco cost is inherently less.
2526
The output from the wind farm depends very largely on the uncontrollable wind speed. Wind farms typically operate at 30% of capacity due to the variable wind speeds.
Some, however, located in unsuitable areas operate at below 10 % capacity. The output from the power plant can be varied by the operator. But that difference does not affect the fact that wind farms, like power stations, involve irreversible lifed developments. They both entail an eco cost for the industrial energy they provide.
2527
Cooling water for power stations: bird kill for wind farms are just examples.
2529 And its use entails an appreciable eco cost in drawing dwon on the natural capital.
2530
Wiser use of the electricity would be more worthwhile. Putting a jumper on rather than turning up the heater does not represent a real drop in standard.
2532
There are increasing attempts to reduce the horrendous impact of plastic shopping bags on many operations in the ecosystem. However, plastic has a really horrendous impact on many operations of the ecosystem. http://www.bestlifeonline.com/cms/publish/healthfitness/Our_oceans_are_turning_into_plastic_are_we_2.shtml
591

‘Our oceans are turning into plastic ...are we?’ By Susan Casey, May 11, 2007
’A vast swath of the Pacific, twice the size of Texas, is full of a plastic stew that is entering the food chain. Scientists say these toxins are causing obesity, infertility...and worse.’ The devastation being caused by the everlasting plastics is described in detail.
Even though this problem has not even made the media ratings, it could well turn out to rival climate change and the potential for nuclear holocaust as civilization’s greatest
‘achievement’.
2533
But the U.S. still heads the rankings and shows no signs of surrendering its lead.
2534
In a recent personal communication sent to ASPO-USA, former Saudi Arabian exploration and production head Sadad Al-Husseini made the following statement.
"There has been a paradigm shift in the energy world whereby oil producers are no longer inclined to rapidly exhaust their resource for the sake of accelerating the misuse of a precious and finite commodity. This sentiment prevails inside and outside of OPEC countries but has yet to be appreciated among the major energy consuming countries of the world." It is not surprising that is increasing awareness in the oil industry that it is an exhaustible resource that is running out even as it becomes more difficult to exploit. No doubt they do not think in terms of entropy increase but they have understanding of the geophysical reality.
2535 ‘The Last Oil Shock’ by David Strahan
2536
I find it bewildering that, for example, the car and airliner manufacturers appear to deny the possibility of oil supply problems in the foreseeable future. Their giant industries cannot reorganize over night.
2537
The proletariat in many cities are starting to feel the pain of the price rises in recent years. These rises are feeding through to many other basic products, like food.
2538
China is very actively using its trade surplus to invest in established foreign businesses and access to oil. ‘Darfur: Forget genocide, there's oil’ by F William Engdahl provides some information on Chinese initiatives in the Sudan in support of their oil access plans. This is of doubtful long-term benefit but is consistent with conventional business practices. It is contributing to the widening social divergence. It is enhancing competition.
592

2539 Even amongst small countries like Australia and East Timor.
2540
This is little doubt that access to oil supply has had some influence on the Middle
East wars and even conflict in Africa.
2541
Led by Russia and Venezuela.
2542
At the expense of the consumers like U.S. and EU.
2544
The royalties paid for the right to develop oil fields have clearly been insufficient to encourage prudent exploitation. The oil companies have become obscenely rich at the expense of future generations in the exploited countries.
2545
Although the Exxon Valdez oil spill was a traumatic example of what can happen. It was a major environmental disaster.
2546
They tend to be complementary with coal supplying electrical energy for commerce, industry and homes while oil primarily provides transportation fuel.
2548
It is also a major, undervalued draw down on natural capital.
2549
Many in North America are very dependent on natural gas for essential home heating.
2550
The widespread examination of alternatives is often of limited scope and prejudiced by financial and technical distortions. The greatest danger is that the introduction of alternatives will tend to increase consumption (Jevon’s Paradox), so the un-repayable eco cost.
2551 it is another major example of the Life Axiom.
2553
‘The Threat to the Planet’ by Jim Hansen, The New York Review of Books (July 13
2006)
’The Weather Makers: How Man Is Changing the Climate and What It Means for Life on
Earth’ by Tim Flannery
(Atlantic Monthly Press)
’Field Notes from a Catastrophe: Man, Nature, and Climate Change’ by Elizabeth
Kolbert (Bloomsbury)
’An Inconvenient Truth: The Planetary Emergency of Global Warming and What We
Can
Do About It’ by Al Gore (Melcher Media/Rodale)
’An Inconvenient Truth’ a film directed by Davis Guggenheim
593

Jim Hansen is Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Adjunct
Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University's Earth Institute.
His opinions are expressed here, he writes, "as personal views under the protection of the
First Amendment of the United States Constitution". This article provides authoritative argument to back the view that anthropogenically caused climate change is under way. It does not, however, acknowledge that this is because society made a grave mistake in fostering the use of fossil fuels even though there were dire warnings of the deleterious effects for many decades. It also promotes the very dubious assertion that there is time to act to avoid really damaging change. Putting the stress on adaptation can be expected to gain more support.
2554
The well-researched irreversible devastation of the environment has not yet managed to reach the attention of the powerful, so the media.
2555
From Financial Times, February 18, 2007, ‘Study sees harmful hunt for extra oil’ by
Carola Hoyos in London. ‘All the world's extra oil supply is likely to come from expensive and environmentally damaging unconventional sources within 15 years, according to a detailed study.’ This is another example of the increasing difficulty of using up natural bounty as global entropy increases.
2556
As a reminder, global entropic growth is a measure of the tendency towards disorder of the operations of the ecosystem, Gaia and the Body of civilization. It means that operations increasingly use up the declining natural bounty. One way to transport
"stranded" natural gas from faraway places (such as the Middle East) to e.g. the US market without having to cool it to liquefy it is to convert it to diesel fuel before export by gas-to-liquids technology (a modification of the Fischer-Tropsch process used to convert coal to oil). There was recent interest in doing this in Qatar, which has the world's third largest gas reserves (after Russia and Iran). Now that troublesome gremlin of the post-peak oil industry - escalating development costs - has caused this idea to be abandoned. This is the type of problem that will become more common as global entropy increases. The scenario has become more disordered.
594

2557 The increasing difficulty, despite technological advances, of discovering and exploiting oil fields is a good example of the problems that will increase with entropic growth, the decrease in global ecosystem order.
2558
This is often cited by the oil industry as how technology is improving recovery rather than how the greater difficulty of recovery is forcing the development of advanced technology. A detailed academic study has shown that in actual fact, technology improvements have not kept pace with the deterioration of the ability to discover fields and extract worthwhile amounts.
2559
Good comparative example; rubbish net energy
2560
By the providers because they get paid. The actual usage, as in a car stuck in a traffic jam, may have very little real value.
2562
RADIOACTIVE PARTICLES from the Dounreay nuclear plant will pollute beaches for decades to come and the environment will never be completely cleaned up.
2563
In ‘the Revenge of Gaia’, Lovelock makes a case that the impact of nuclear power is widely misunderstood and that it really is a sound way to supply electricity.
2564
Nuclear in sustainable development talks,01 March 2007 http://www.world-nuclearnews.org/energyEnvironment/010307Nuclear_in_sustainable_development_talks.shtml
Algeria, Argentina, Australia, Canada, India and Russia were among countries who flagged up the role of nuclear in sustainable development during intergovernmental talks.
The Intergovernmental Preparatory Meeting is taking place from 26 February to 2 March, prior to the for the 15th session of the Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD-
15) which will be held at UN Headquarters in New York between 30 April and 11 May.
This introduces bias by starting with the fallacious premise of sustainable development.
2565
Even the main source of oil, the Middle East states, are looking at installing nuclear plants to meet their developing industrial energy needs.
2566
Especially their contributions to climate change
595

2567 Dale Klein, director of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, predicts the agency will experience a groundswell of applications for licenses to construct new nuclear plants as the nation's utilities scramble to produce enough electricity to meet the needs of the its ever-growing population. "We do have 14 different entities that have expressed an interest in almost 30 new reactors, so it should be an interesting and exciting time over the next five years," Klein said. Leaving aside the question of whether nuclear is justifiable, the building of new nuclear plants will be a slow process due to shortage of the necessary engineering experience.
2568
Mr. Blair said: "In common with countries around the world, we need to put nuclear power back on the agenda and at least replace the nuclear energy we will lose. "Without it, we will not be able to meet any of our objectives on climate change or our objectives on energy security."
2569 http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0307/p01s04-sten.html
How green is nuclear power? Some call it a carbon-free alternative to fossil fuels, but others point to significant environmental costs. By Mark Clayton | Staff writer of The
Christian Science Monitor. In Kansas, where winds blow strong, the push for clean energy includes not only new wind turbines but also new nuclear-power plants as part of a "carbon-free" solution to climate change. It's an idea that may be catching on. At least
11 new nuclear plants are in the design stage in nine states, including Virginia, Texas, and Florida, according to the Nuclear Energy Institute website. "Saying nuclear is carbon-free is not true," says Uwe Fritsche, a researcher at the Öko Institut in Darmstadt,
Germany, who has conducted a life-cycle analysis of the plants. "It's less carbonintensive than fossil fuel. But if you are honest, scientifically speaking, the truth is: There is no carbon-free energy. There's no free lunch." This is a degree of recognition of the consequences of entropic growth.
2570 http://www.washingt onpost.com/ wp-dyn/content/ article/2007/ 05/28/AR20070528
01051.html
’China Embraces Nuclear Future. Optimism Mixes With Concern as Dozens Of Plants
Go Up’ By Ariana Eunjung Cha, Washington Post Foreign Service, Tuesday, May 29,
596

2007; YUMEN, China. This article provides some detail of china’s comprehensive plans for nuclear power. These plans are based on the presumption that there will be a continuing need for increased industrial energy to power economic growth. There is the very dubious presumption that China will be able to mitigate its growing, horrendous environmental and associated societal problems with its remaining natural bounty supplemented by nuclear power.
2571
Liberal MP Andrew Southcott has tabled in parliament two agreements between Australia and China on the transfer of nuclear materials and the peaceful use of nuclear materials. He told parliament Australia could earn $250 million a year from the sale. This is a conventional view. The proposed draw down of natural resources could well constitute a rational appreciation of the eco costs involved – if the money earned was utilized in, say, easing the water supply predicament. Nuclear power stations use a lot of cooling water. This fact would have to be incorporated into any rational discussion of the issue. ‘The nuclear power option - expensive, ineffective and unnecessary’June 13, 2005 http://www.smh. com.au/news/ Opinion/The- nuclear-power- option--expensiv eineffective- and-unnecessary/ 2005/06/12/ 1118514925517. html
’There are more than two choices in the debate on how to meet future energy needs, writes Stuart White. This provides a more realistic view. The emerging proposal to build a nuclear enrichment plant indicates the growing interest in nuclear power in this country.
2572
Helen Caldicott has indicated how big business is covertly behind the political push for Australia to get really involved in nuclear power.
2573
SPIEGEL ONLINE INTERNATIONAL, January 16, 2007
‘NEW REACTORS ACROSS THE GLOBE, A Nuclear Power Renaissance’ by Rüdiger
Falksohn
‘With concerns about global warming and energy security on the rise, countries the world over are taking a new look at nuclear energy. Some are building new reactors as fast as they can.’ This article provides a balanced global perspective but based on the presumption that industrial energy demand will continue to grow.
597

2574
‘World urged to build more N-plants’ by Carola Hoyos, Chief Energy Correspondent,
World International Economy
Published: November 1 2006
For the first time in its 32-year history, the International Energy Agency will next week urge governments around the world to help speed the construction of new nuclear power plants. Although several countries, including India, China, the US and France, are already planning more nuclear plants, and others such as the UK are in the early stages of backing new reactors, others oppose any addition to nuclear capacity, including Germany and Spain. However, Fatih Birol, IEA chief economist, said: “We need a decision almost tomorrow if we are going to act before we reach a point of no return in climate and security of supply.”
There is probably quite a compelling case for the installation of nuclear power stations to meet the urgent need for industrial energy as that from fossil fuels declines. It would serve no useful purpose, however, if it was not carried out in conjunction with a decline in population and in the consumption of goods, so a reduction in eco cost.
2575
Dow Jones Newswire 2-8
Dept of Energy reports estimated cost of building the Yucca Mountain repository for nuclear waste are estimated to now cost 20 Billion rather than 12 Bil.
2576
Nuclear in sustainable development talks, 01 March 2007 http://www.world-nuclearnews.org/energyEnvironment/010307Nuclear_in_sustainable_development_talks.shtml
Algeria, Argentina, Australia, Canada, India and Russia were among countries who flagged up the role of nuclear in sustainable development during intergovernmental talks.
The Intergovernmental Preparatory Meeting is taking place from 26 February to 2 March, prior to the for the 15th session of the Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD-
15) which will be held at UN Headquarters in New York between 30 April and 11 May.
598

This premise about sustainable development is essentially aiming at business as usual without regard to what human activities have already done to the ecosystem.
2577
In ‘the Revenge of Gaia’, Lovelock mentions signs of progress in this long-standing endeavor.
2579
Coal to liquid fuel, CPG, CNG and biofuels like ethanol.
2580
There have been numerous studies pointing out the limited capabilities of the alternatives. These have often conflicted with the figures put forward by the proponents.
Ethanol is one prominent example. Its production in the U.S. is starting to have food supply implications, much to the horror of many Mexicans already. The increasing number of poor Americans are doubtless wondering about their priorities, food or fuel.
Many of the poor in other countries have no such problem. Their worry is about food and water.
2581 http://www.alternet.org/story/64445/
‘Hydropower Doesn't Count as Clean Energy’ By Sarah Phelan, Earth Island Journal.
Posted October 5, 2007.’Think hydropower helps in the fight against climate change?
Think again.’ This article brings out the emerging recognition of the levels of methane emission from hydro-electric dams that can occur. There is appreciable controversy globally about how serious a problem this may be. It is, however, another example of industrialization having unintended consequences. It may well add to the difficulty of meeting future energy requirements.
2582
There is growing appreciation of the ecological damage by systems installed decades ago. At the same time, many new systems are being installed to help to meet the demand for electricity by industry.
2583
The rapid increase in demand has meant that the engineering of sound, reliable systems has been rushed, with dire circumstances. http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,500902,00.html
Der Spiegel, August 20, 2007. ‘WUTHERING HEIGHTS. The Dangers of Wind Power’
By Simone Kaiser and Michael Fröhlingsdorf. ‘Wind turbines continue to multiply the
599

world over. But as they grow bigger and bigger, the number of dangerous accidents is climbing. How safe is wind energy?’
Aviation has shown what can be done in this respect when sound engineering is valued more than expedience for profit.
2584
They are likely to fill a niche role only in due course for geological, technical and environmental reasons.
‘Energy search goes underground’ By ELIANE ENGELER and
ALEXANDER G. HIGGINS, Associated Press Writers
Sat Aug 4. 2007 gives some detail on global investigation of the hot dry rocks version of geothermal. Indonesia is assessing how much of its high geothermal potential can realistically be harnessed.
2585
Date: February 22, 2007, Science Daily — Drilling is complete on an Alaskan North
Slope well, cofunded by the Department of Energy, that could prove to be an important milestone in assessing America's largest potential fossil energy resource: gas hydrate.
This may prove to be a sound means of augmenting America’s industrial energy supply without causing too many predicaments. Oceanic Hydrates : a potential trigger effect for global warming, methane being a stronger green house gas than CO2, once a time a proven killer in geologic time, and an elusive energy source. However, the article below casts grave doubts on the utility of hydrates as an energy source whilst it may also have a disastrous impact on the climate.’Oceanic Hydrates: an Elusive Resource and a chimera’ by J.H.Laherrere http://www.oilcrisi s.com/laherrere/ hydrates
The article in Science Daily and in http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20050625/bob9.asp
provide a contrary view.
Clearly, though, there is appreciable work being done to see whether it can be a viable source of industrial energy.
South Korea says finds gas hydrate offshore
Sun Jun 24, 2007
( http://in.today. reuters.com/ news/newsArticle .aspx?storyID= 2007-06-24T07570
2Z_01_NOOTR_ RTRMDNC_0_ India-281444- 1.xml
http://preview. tinyurl.com/ ytxkf9 )
600

SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea has found gas hydrates in the East Sea for the first time, and aims to begin production by 2015 to meet the country's growing energy needs, Seoul's energy ministry said on Sunday.
2586
U.S. DOE have published a study showing the industrial energy available from ethanol produced from corn is marginally more than the industrial energy from fossil fuels used in its distillation and delivery. It is another input into the continuing debate about fuel versus food at a time when world grain crops are falling short of demand but ethanol plants are springing up in the U.S.. It does not appear to allow for the reduction in soil fertility. Ethanol plants in Minnesota use from 3.5 gallons to six gallons of water to produce one gallon of ethanol from corn, says the Minneapolis-based Institute for
Agriculture and Trade Policy. This indicates another crucial element in ethanol production that is generally underplayed.
The current ill-advised frenzy in building ethanol plants to mitigate the oil addiction is a classic example of market forces being in the destructive direction. It presumes carmania cannot be treated! It is a lose-lose situation.
2587
As the United States looks to crops as possible future sources of industrial energy, a
University of Arkansas researcher and his colleagues call for caution, citing the possibility of some biofuel crops becoming invasive species. In an article released Sept.
22 in the internationally prestigious journal, Science, Illinois State University
Distinguished Professor of Ecology Roger C. Anderson, co-author of "Adding Biofuels to the Invasive Species Fire?" argues that these species must be screened for their potential to become invasive species. "Many of the species commonly proposed as biofuel plants share numerous traits in common with invasive plants, which is a good indicator of a plants' likelihood to become invasive," Anderson said. Invasive species as a group cause an estimated 123 to 137 billion dollars of damage annually in the United States. As defined by the United States government, invasive species are alien species that enter novel environments and cause economic damage, human problems or harm the environment. " This is another example of possible unintended consequences. It is by no means an isolated one as researchers are pinpointing many but they have been largely
601

ignored because financial cost and potential profit has been the major consideration. The
IPCC report indicates that climate change is most likely to exacerbate the invasive species problems.
2588 http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YTY1NGI0YzI0NGIwODZlMzY3NjA0ODYwMD
VkOWIxY2Q=
It’s a Syn. Are synfuels making a comeback? Can disco be far behind?
By Jerry Taylor & Peter Van Doren
Soaring gasoline prices are prompting politicians on both sides of the aisle to contemplate a re-embrace of one of the worst financial boondoggles of the 1970s — synthetic fuels. Of course, the coal industry is smart enough to rebrand this technology, so the new term of art is “coal-to-liquids.” While turning coal into oil (and then into gasoline) would be a wonderful idea if it could be done cost effectively, it can’t — which is why the coal industry is banging on the federal door for lavish taxpayer subsidies.’
This article details failed attempts over decades for U.S. business to provide synfuels, with copious help from government subsidies. They were stymied because, fundamentally, synfuels are inferior to oil as a source of energy for transportation (as are ethanol and biofuels). Oil, of course, is unnaturally cheap. It should have been priced as natural capital.
2589
Aviation fuel poses a special problem because of its rigid specification to meet highpressure combustion requirements. The one being derived from coal will have to undergo comprehensive in-operation testing before it can replace the kerosene obtained from oil.
Is there sufficient time?
2590 net energy is commonly regarded as an important attribute even though it does not realistically take into account the source of the energy or the consequential ecosystem damage.
2591 The U.S. proposal for collaboration with Brazil in ethanol production for the
American fuel market is seen by many as being counter-productive as it will have serious
602

environmental, economic and social consequences for the Third World peoples. Many of the Brazilian ethanol producers are getting rich by paying the cane cutters only a subsistence wage.
2592
‘After two days of meetings, the eighth APEC Energy Ministers' Meeting in
Darwin has concluded with the release of the 'Darwin Declaration' , recognising the need to deploy cleaner, more efficient and sustainable energy technologies.’ The Declaration is a typical political statement about means of obtaining sufficient industrial energy to foster the continuing economic growth in the region. It is really a wish list without a substantial base. The Minister should sack their technical advisors for incompetence and tell their economics advisors to understand the
Consequence Axiom.
2593
The proposed geothermal power station in South Australia could well boost that
State’s remaining natural bounty capital to an extent that justifies the eco cost entailed.
The electricity it provides could be used to power a desalination plant to ease the serious water supply problem.
2594
on one hand you have fossil fuels, particularly coal, exacerbating climate change while biofuels conflict with food supply. There is a clear need for rational comparison of these alternatives. The financial concerns of the vested interests will not make a good contribution to the discussion.
2595 The powerful do not even recognize the need. They will not have to suffer the consequences as they sit in their air-conditioned offices.
2596 Unfortunately, the strongest proponents of this view, the CEOs of business, will not be amongst those that suffer. Nor will our political ‘leaders’. They have immunized themselves against reality.
2598
By politicians, some academics and others with vested interests.
2599
For example, Shanghai city government have made a heavy investment in local development of fuel-cell powered buses and cars on the basis of a proposal that misrepresents the technical advantages and disadvantages.
603

2600 The common comment by the proponents that hydrogen is the most abundant element or that there is no shortage of the water that is required are blatant misrepresentations of the technical issues. Yet they are often included in discussions of the possibility of a hydrogen economy.
2601
< http://www.culturechange.org/alt_energy.htm#H >CultureChange.org.
‘The Hydrogen Economy – Energy and Economic Black Hole’by Alice Friedemann. The energy literate scoff at perpetual motion, free energy, and cold fusion, but what about the hydrogen economy? Before we invest trillions of dollars, let’s take a hydrogen car out for a spin.’ This article provides a reasonably balanced view of the dim prospects for hydrogen.
2602
Ideally that would weigh up the value of developing these vehicles for essential travel against the eco cost. There is bound to be a trend along those lines as realism sets in!
2603
it also entails an appreciable industrial energy loss in production, storage and electricity generation, similar to the coal process examined earlier. The overall efficiency is not high.
2604
a big factor here is the major infrastructure modification required. This would take appreciable resources (natural and human) and time, which is scarce.
2605
It would be most unfortunate if the powers that presently support the idea of a hydrogen economy were to continue to deviate attention from more realistic sources of industrial energy.
2607 The pressure for these changes will have to fight against denial, inertial, political and financial barriers to timely expediency.
2608
‘IEA warns of ongoing energy crisis’ by Carola Hoyos in London, November 7 2006
The world is on a course that will lead it “from crisis to crisis” unless governments act immediately to save energy and invest in nuclear and biofuels, the International Energy
Agency warned on Tuesday. "The world is facing twin energy-related threats: that of not having adequate and secure supplies of energy at affordable prices and that of environmental harm caused by consuming too much of it... the current pattern of energy
604

supply carries the threat of severe and irreversible environmental damage," the report said. The report also noted the advantage of the reduction in demand for industrial energy by conservation and using more energy efficient devices. It does, however, take the typical view of what industrial energy can do for society (energy security) without looking realistically at the eco cost. And there is no mention of over population or over consumption of stuff.
2609
Mitigation of the impact of climate change is an important component but there are others as well. The usage of water in the exploration, extraction and implementation of the sources of industrial energy is another important one.
2611
this mining of iron ore is a very different matter to the role of iron in metabolism of living organisms
2612
we are focusing on the transformation of the material here but it should not be forgotten that it involves an energy flow as well. Iron has more bond energy that iron oxide. So energy input is required to convert the oxide to metal.
2613
The Fourth Law has applied.
2614
So the Second Law has applied to the coke in conjunction but it has had a bigger impact.
2615 Knowledge can well determine details of the process, like the temperature of the smelting, but it does not affect the fact that the process is irreversible with an overall thermodynamic entropy increase although there is a transient, localized decrease of the entropy of the iron.
2616 This is a good example of misleading perspective. The steel is seen to be a good and the waste to be a bad. Little thought is given to the reality that the good is temporary and the bad, in the main, permanent unless the waste is put to good use.
2617
If the steel is transformed to stainless steel, it will not rust. But it will still be lifed as it will be discarded some time in the future. A human decision leads to the same result as a spontaneous chemical reaction. The iron ore led a limited life in the service of society, at an (invisible) eco cost. Its development has followed the Life Axiom.
605

2618 This part of the life of iron, the spontaneous increase in thermodynamic entropy on activation, being in air, is equivalent in principle to the increase in entropy that occurs when coal is ignited in air as noted by the Second Law.
2619
The processing of scrap iron (with it coating of iron oxide) is quite a different process to the original refining process.
2620
It may be worthwhile in a few cases but the proliferation of the artifacts of civilization will hardly be considered as justifiable by those future generations that will have to do without.
2621
That argument by the powerful would not withstand objective scrutiny, if it were carried out.
2622
They are counting part of the eco cost.
2623
It also leads to waste production and environmental devastation, the other components of the hidden eco cost.
2624
This is similar, in principle, to the original process producing the metallic iron.
2625
This fact is confirmed by the dispersion of waste heat to the environment. The use of heat energy to melt the scrap is an essential part of the ‘recycling’ process.
2626 The coke waste could be in a dump and the steel in a ship at the bottom of the ocean.
2627 The owner may make the decision to have the skyscraper demolished. This decision will cause an increase in global entropy when carried out. It will also add to the entropy of the Body of civilization as it reduces order.
2628
Even though the owner would regard it as an investment
2629 but it is not!
2630
Have you adjusted your mindset accordingly? Society in general are so entranced with this type of progress that they do not think about the implications for the future.
2632
There is good reason to believe that there are circumstances where it is worthwhile, on an eco cost basis, to recycle. Earth Policy Institute, Plan B 2.0 Book Byte, December
5, 2006
‘A NEW MATERIALS ECONOMY’ http://www.earthpolicy.org/Books/Seg/PB2ch12_ss5.htm
606

provides insight into what can be done to reduce material waste generation by recycling.
It also gives details of where these principles are being put into practice in a number of countries. This does not mean, however, that recycling is a sound principle in general.
2633
It is not really recycling like the natural recycling of water, carbon and nitrogen. It entails an eco cost while they do not.
2634
‘Biophysical Economics: From Physiocracy to Ecological Economic and Industrial
Ecology’, Cutler J Cleveland, 1999
2635
the ecological damage that can occur in the mining can be appreciable and not financially accounted for.
2637
Ethanol and biofuels
2638
quite often it is just one person, with a very swollen head!
2639
How about the simple realization that harvesting a crop with all the macro and micro nutrients involved in becoming the grain, to finally extract nothing more than carbon and water recombined, is a categorical waste, the essence of the unsustainable.
2640
unfortunately much of society is so addicted to carmania that withdrawal is untenable, in their blind view. But it will happen!
2642 As we know, the human expertise enables the skyscraper to be built and to a degree what resources are used in its construction but it has little effect upon the subsequent impact of natural forces on its functioning. It is appropriate to regard it as a catalyst.
2643
It is akin to a cell in the Body of civilization
2644 the application of a coat of paint to a door is another example of the Life Axiom. It entails an eco cost in preparing the paint using natural resources and applying it. But it is an irreversible process that reduces deterioration of the skyscraper due to natural forces like wind and rain. It is reasonably judged to be a worthwhile expenditure of natural bounty.
2645
cities occupy an appreciable area of land that would otherwise contribute to the operation of the ecosystem.
2646
Power for lighting, elevators, computers etc being a major eco cost
2647
again as a catalyst
607

2648 is akin to a cell in Gaia
2649
if allowed to die naturally rather than prematurely being turned in to junk mail!
2650
particularly the fossil fuels that provide the necessary industrial energy although we should not forget the concrete, the steel and the numerous other materials. Copper plays an important part and that is getting scarce.
2651
Tendency towards maturity.
2652
GHG emissions and many toxic wastes are not exactly useful!
2653
it is normally a sink for carbon.
2654 Often, but not invariably, worthwhile!
2655
it is quite likely that many of the presently existing ones will not be replaced because of the increasing competition for the remaining natural bounty in the region.
2657
the operation of the bodies of humans is part of the operation of the ecosystem even if their minds are playing Ponzi games.
2658
The farmer fills a niche, contributing role in the operation of the ecosystem, similar to that of the pollinating bee, if she/he uses skill to supplement energy in making the land more productive.
2659
The engineer may use his/her expertise to facilitate the construction of a bridge, a temporary addition to the infrastructure that is the basis of society’s operations. The bridge would be a slight increase in the order of the Body of civilization, so entropic decrease but the construction would result in an entropic growth of Gaia. The question then is the temporary worth of the bridge against the irrevocable draw down of the bounty.
2661
The increasingly popular ‘fast food’ diet among the affluent is doing a remarkable job in stifling their energy.
2663
It is another example of the Life Axiom.
2664
Present day judgment being tempered by appreciation of its contribution to global warming!
2665
Operators who expect to get 20 to 30 years out of these aircraft will be in for a double shock. Passengers will disappear with the Greater Depression while fuel will disappear with the depletion of oil!
608

2666 Aviation fuel is a very specialized derivative of oil and no proven replacement is readily available. http://www.peak-oil-news.info/new-synthetic-jet-fuel/
This article gives some details of US military program to produce a substitute jet fuel, doubtless based on what the South Africans did decades ago. More has been done on meeting this emerging demand than was mentioned in the article. There is, however, much to be done before it is proven for operational use. And even then the fuel will be derived from an exhaustible source. It will be a short-term fix, at best.
‘The fuel being tested is a 50-50 blend of traditional crude-oil based jet fuel and a synthetic liquid, which is made from natural gas but eventually will be refined from coal mined in the U.S.’
2667
It is an unsustainable predatory technology because there are insufficient natural resources to continue to feed it.
2668
There is growing appreciation of the contribution airliners make to climate change by carbon dioxide emissions at high altitude. This, however, has had little effect on the growing airline business – yet. It is ironical that the developing oil supply predicament will make a major contribution to the reduction of airliner emissions, but too late to have an appreciable impact on climate change.
2670 It is a major assemblage of infrastructure facilitating the operations of the inhabitants.
So it typifies a major element in the Body of civilization constructed at appreciable eco cost. The conventional view is to admire what has been achieved and forget the eco cost including that of maintaining its aging structure.
2671 Most of it used to be good farmland with a reasonable rainfall
2672 As environmentalist Rupert Cutler once noted, “Asphalt is the land’s last crop.”
2673
They still believe in growth at any price! They can only see dollar signs. They see benefits in new housing on what was good farming land! Population growth means more consumption so more dollars for business.
2674 On the other hand, some cities, led by London and Singapore, have introduced congestion taxes to discourage these pests.
2675
They know better than all those overseas studies and experience that freeways breed cars! ‘Fool’s gold parked at the end of East Link rainbow’ by Kerryn Wilmott of the
Public Transport Users Association in the Age of 20 th
October, 2006 is a sound statement
609

of the unintended and unfortunate consequences of this encouragement of the constructors to make money.
2676
Dams and reservoirs in the mountains north of the city are the source of the supply.
These have caused some disruptions to environmental services, particularly the flows in a number of rivers. This is just one example of a perturbation of Gaia to build up the Body.
The fertile land now covered by the city is an example of a clear loss of Gaia. The gain for the Body really just enables more Mind games for a while.
2677
The Victorian government has a plan to secure Melbourne’s drinking water supply for the next fifty years! by replacing billions of litres of fresh water used by Latrobe
Valley power stations for cooling purposes with treated effluent water from Melbourne.
This is a typical resources conflict brought on by over population and over consumption in a predatory city. Political, financial and rural versus urban rights are dominating the arguments. The proposal is based on the usual premise about continuing economic growth and without any realistic consideration of what remains of the regional natural bounty.
2678 The plant at Wonthaggi is expected to cost $3.1 billion and deliver 150 billion litres of water per year to Melbourne, Western Port, Geelong and Wonthaggi. The government proposes to install ‘renewable’ energy sources (presumably wind farms) to supply the 90 mW of power required. It is an example of a need arising from regional population and consumption, so entropic, growth and may be temporarily worthwhile if other consumption of natural bounty is curtailed.
2679 It has just celebrated 100 years of electric trams. It used to have a very good tramway system.
2680
Privatization of many utilities is becoming common globally. It is claimed to improve economic efficiency. The reality is that it reduces resilience as the companies prioritize profitability and competitiveness. As a consequence, their services generally do not provide worthwhile services for the draw down of natural bounty entailed.
2681
The local car industry is no longer competitive so most cars are imported. This means that a higher proportion of the eco costs of the lives of these cars are being paid elsewhere and this is making Melbourne more predatory.
610

2682 This adds appreciably to the eco cost, through wasted fuel and the consequences of pollution, whilst decreasing the worth of traveling by car.
2683
The state government is providing (dollar) handouts to farmers, graziers, orchardists in rural Victoria in desperate straits because of the prolonged drought, probably partially due to climate change. They have the traditional view that the rural communities are in some way inferior to the city folk. They ignore the fact that the rural communities provide the sustenance of life while the city plays games with that abstraction, money.
2684
So the authorities want to dredge the Bay to enable the biggest ships to bring their goods to the Port of Melbourne from far away. That brings in money to the traders at a hidden eco cost, for now.
2685
The Liberal Party has a commitment to close the Gunnamatta outfall by 2015. This is based on the premise that there will be sufficient economic growth for them to be able to fund this major works out of the budget. This is just one predicament stemming from a growing but aging city. This remedial action can only come about at the expense of other upkeep requirements entailing the use of limited resources. The decision is most likely to be based on political and financial considerations rather than the eco cost.
2686 Like most cities, it has filled nearby dumps so has to use up more resources to transfer the wastes to remote locations. The eco cost is going up with this reinforcing feedback mechanism compounding the predicaments with population and consumption growth.
2687
The current frenzy for remedial action on emissions is an example of how Body entropic growth is throwing up predicaments even as the natural bounty declines.
2688
But it will increasingly come from afar as these fields are declining rapidly.
2689
The authorities manage to give the impression that they are improving the situation when in reality they are just treating past misdemeanors at an appreciable eco cost. It is not a step forward as they would like us to believe, it is endeavoring not to take another step back.
2690
With possibly appreciable damage to the marine ecosystem. Some recent studies of dredging in Chinese water have shown the devastating impact on the marine ecology.
611

2691 The Port of Melbourne Corporation points out that these plans have been subject to all the regularity and legal requirements to safeguard the state economy. That is, it is based on the premise of continuing economic growth despite the emerging signs of ecological collapse.
2692
It is a delightful city in which to live. Its citizens make many educational and cultural contributions. It justifiably attracts many tourists from across the world. We are, however, examining what its activities do to the operation of the ecosystem.
2693
The work force consists of the typical urban mix, few of which actually produce anything of real value. Tainter gives a good description of how these complex organizations have developed in recent societies and how they collapse. Their strategies for energy capture are subject to the law of diminishing return. That is equivalent to the entropic growth view we are taking here.
2694
Especially food and water
2695
Few Melbournians have the skills to meet their basic needs. They are reliant on being able to buy them from a supermarket.
2696 Many proudly point at how its infrastructure has continually grown. This is in large part due to the planners, the architects, the engineers and the skills of many other people.
They have contributed to the increase in order. Some physicists view this as a decrease in entropy due to the information input into the process. That definition of entropy is used in this essay because it brings out the ecological reality, the temporary infrastructure has been built at an un-repayable eco cost. The temporary order in the infrastructure, so localized entropy decrease in the Body, is contained within a continuing global entropy growth of Gaia.
2697
Michael Chaney, President of the Business Council of Australia was eulogizing the economic growth over the past decade. He noted that instead of being focused on basic needs, Australians are increasingly focused on how they might go about locking in
(material) wealth and the prosperity they have worked hard for. The title of his article in the Age was ‘Prosperous Australians reach for the stars’ summed up the situation very well. It carries with it the wishful thinking that we can forget the basics and continues to
612

rely on energy slaves. That will be a bit hard when food, drink, shelter and fuel are hard to come by. Those dreams then tend to become nightmares.
2698
Some of the existing infrastructure, like the public transport, is declining despite the continuing need to use up some of the remaining natural bounty for maintenance purposes.
2699
Roads, TV and telecommunications were given priority over water supply and sewerage, until now!
2700
It can be realistically argued that the order of material foundations peaked decades ago and there are now many symptoms of growing disorder, so entropy. This entropy growth could well have peaked so the predicaments, like water supply and traffic congestion, become harder to mitigate.
2701
The Taj Mahal is an interesting contrast. It took a workforce of 22000 to build over
22 years. Building materials were obtained from as far away as China. It has required the use of appreciable amount of natural resources to maintain it over the past 370 years. So it has come at a tremendous eco cost. Yet it has also been of tremendous value and not only to Indian society. The value stems in part from the skills of the designers and of the craftsmen involved. The value is not quantifiable but it is widely recognized. The eco cost has not been counted though there has been periodic argument about finding the resources to restore and maintain it.
2702 Naturally the good citizens of Melbourne complain continually about the traffic, lack of public transport, cost of Asian food, rising disenchantment of the young as they go on their merry way in their SUV to the fast food outlets.
2703
Other than to the discerning
2704
The decline may become apparent in the next few years or it may be decades away.
This will depend primarily on unpredictable global factors. The current water supply predicament is a start. But the decline is only a matter of time because the foundations of civilization are aging rapidly. London is a lot older but it is bound to have a similar future.
613

2705 Melbourne is no different to any other city in that it has its plutocracy who will endeavor to maintain their advantageous position as long as possible, regardless of the consequences that they will not have to suffer.
2707
Melbourne has made its unheralded contribution to climate change.
2708
They were the catalyst
2709
This can be likened to the Mind’s impression of the health of the Body without tests of that presumption. As a consequence there are many circumstances where the WoEC is very low.
2710
the health of the Body of civilization and its host, Gaia. Not that there is any reason to worry about Gaia’s robust health. It will recover in time once that pestiferous cancer, civilization’s Body, is under control. In ‘the Revenge of Gaia’, Lovelock takes a harsher view of what industrial civilization has done to Gaia.
2711
No matter whether it makes a positive contribution to the development of the body or not.
2712
All industrial energy ends up as true waste heat when used. All materials end up as waste when used. Many natural goods and services are irrevocably devastated by the operations of civilization. For example, the area occupied by Melbourne used to be arable land. The Yarra and Maribynong Rivers used to support a wide ranging biodiversity.
2714 Detroit shows what happens when society has problems finding the natural resources to maintain a parasite.
2715
< http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2007/12/4/101359/842
‘Presidential Climate Action Project releases new plan for the next president.’ This is a well-thought-out and comprehensive plan for U.S. contribution to climate change mitigation and adaptation. It would entail such a change in American life style that it is extremely doubtful that any administration would try to adopt it. On the other hand, it is most unlikely to have a significant mitigating impact. At best, it is only likely to ease the power down slightly.
2718
Burst water mains are a common occurrence. These are not totally unwelcome as it gives folk the chance to get bucketfuls of water for their gardens, so avoiding the current water restrictions!
614

2719 Because of delusions of the powerful and the desires of the masses.
2720
By using money
2721 ABCNational Radio. InConversation. ‘ Surviving the Century’12 July, 2007. ‘World leading urban ecologist Herbert Girardet is a specialist in making cities sustainable. He is widely published, a prolific documentary maker and has been invited to work on sustainability in many countries around the world including Australia. In 2003 he advised
Adelaide on how to become a greener and more sustainable city. He's in conversation with Michele Field about his latest book Surviving the Century - Facing Climate Chaos and other Global Challenges.’ As you would expect, Giradet has some very sound views on how cities can be transformed to make them more ecologically sustainable. The aims of the World Future Council are admirable but, unfortunately, unrealistic. The over population issue is not addressed.
2723
GREEN MANHATTAN; OUR LOCAL CORRESPONDENTS
DAVID OWEN. The New Yorker. New York: Oct 18, 2004.Vol.80, Iss. 31; pg. 111
Most Americans, including most New Yorkers, think of New York City as an ecological nightmare. However, Owen says that by most significant measures, New York is the greenest community in the US. This is a well argued article except that it looks at only part of the picture. It does not consider New York’s dependence on elsewhere for much of the material, including food, that enables it to operate!
2724 This has posed a major logistics problem for years as they have had to move further out into the countryside to find landfill places.
2725
New Yorkers do enjoy gourmet foods gathered from all over the world.
2726
That adaptation will be left to the proletariat, of course.
2728
See I can play Mind games too!
2729
This would differ markedly from the proposed ‘Environmental Cost Accounting and
Business Strategy’ in that it would take into account all eco costs realistically. That would include a loading for the depletion of irreplaceable resources like oil.
615

2730 drawing down on the natural capital, remedial action to handle waste degradation of the environment and consequential geo- and biodiversity disruption.
2731
These import and export eco costs invariably include transportation. These will increase as fuels become scarcer. This is an example of cascading associated with entropic growth. It will stimulate re-localization as an element of power down.
2732
Including those essential ones, health, education and essential transport.
2733
Steel, cement, etc
2734
sewerage, toxic waste materials, atmospheric and water pollution, greenhouse gases from its power stations and cars
2735
remember we are playing a fanciful Mind game here!
2736
including the basics of food, drink, clothing, housing, education and medical care.
2737
Sewerage, water supply, roads, railways etc.
2738
the debit
2739
the credit and similar to GDP but more realistic about worth of many consumables.
2740 GDP = consumption + investment + government spending + (exports − imports
2741 Cities Feeding People- `grow it where you live! 4th Annual Australian City Farms and Community Gardens Conference, Melbourne Victoria, March 20-25, 2007. This is the type of activity that hopefully will grow strongly as the power down gets under way.
2742
While I'm http://www.senseabo utscience. org.uk/index. php/site/ other/175 at it...
This site details a welcome trend with young scientists in the UK questioning companies about the scientific basis for the claims they make for their products.
2743
carmania
2744
From the NY Times, June 28, 2007 ’U.N. Predicts Urban Population Explosion’ By
CELIA W. DUGGER ’By next year, more than half the world's population, 3.3 billion people, will for the first time live in towns and cities, and the number is expected to swell to almost five billion by 2030, according to a United Nations Population Fund report
616

released yesterday.’ ‘But cities are also engines of economic growth, the report notes more optimistically. "Cities concentrate poverty," it said, "but they also represent the best hope of escaping it."’ This article is not looking at the reality that declining oil, so food production combined with climate change will, because of the parasiticy of the cities, lead to their collapse.
2745
Sound farming, as in Cuba, would be regarded with esteem.
2746
A realistic GDP would be the worth of the goods or services provided or investment made minus the realistic eco costs entailed. It would then represent the worth added by human participation. This, of course, is the current interpretation of what GDP growth indicates. Current numbers, however, are misleading because of the indicated costing errors.
2748
This loading would differ appreciably from the current price to better reflect its role in a more realistic operation in a powering down society.
2749
Food Crisis Feared as Fertile Land Runs Out Published on Tuesday, December 6,
2005 by the Guardian / UK Maps show 40% of Earth's land is used for agriculture
Growing human 'footprint' a risk to the environment. by Kate Ravilious
New maps show that the Earth is rapidly running out of fertile land and that food production will soon be unable to keep up with the world's burgeoning population. The maps reveal that more than one third of the world's land is being used to grow crops or graze cattle. "The maps show, very strikingly, that a large part of our planet
(roughly 40%) is being used for either growing crops or grazing cattle," said Dr Navin Ramankutty, a member of the Wisconsin-Madison team. By comparison, only 7% of the world's land was being used for agriculture in 1700. The next phase of the project is to build an internet-based databank - called the Earth Collaboratory - that would draw on the knowledge of scientists around the world, local environmentalists and members of the general public.
Jonathan Foley, director of the Wisconsin-Madison research team, said:
617

"[The Collaboratory] will truly be a brave new experiment that effectively bridges science, decision-making and real-world environmental practice - collectively envisioning a new way to live sustainably. " This is a very progressive move but most unlikely to have more than a palliative effect in the developing crisis.
2750
This one would be very difficult to estimate, as even the experts are only slowly learning about how pervasive the damage is. The powerful are too busy to be concerned - yet.
2754
Richard Register, ‘Ecocities: Building Cities in Balance with Nature’
2755
China has an example under construction. This good example, however, should be weighed up against the numerous bad examples. The populations of the mega-cities are growing at an uncontrolled rate with devastating effects for the majority.
2756
And those who can best contribute to their provision will rise in the perception of society.
 Tokyo, Japan (30,000,000)
 Mexico City, Mexico (22,800,000)
 Seoul, South Korea (22,300,000)
 New York City, USA (21,900,000)
 São Paulo, Brazil (20,200,000)
 Mumbai (Bombay), India (19,850,000)
 Delhi, India (19,700,000)
 Shanghai, China (18,150,000)
 Los Angeles, USA (18,000,000)
 Osaka, Japan (16,800,000)
618

2759 Although this is being disputed as climate change brings irrigation water rights in the
Murray Valley in question.
2760
Generally but unseasonable frosts that decimated crops last year may be part of the new reality.
2761
In real terms rather than the fanciful ones of economics.
2763
the Melbourne predicament with sewerage is as nothing compared to the situation in
India. Many cities and towns do not have sewerage systems so the water tends to be polluted with consequential health predicaments.
2764
It is a similar predicament to the washing of nutrients from agriculture down the
Mississippi that forms dead zones in the Gulf of Mexico.
2765
Scientific American
2766
how and why they return to where they were born is a very intriguing question. I very much doubt whether even the experts can answer that. It is another example of the role of decisions in the way the ecosystem operates.
2767
Or Mississippi or Ganges or numerous other rivers
2768 Aquaculture is yet another case where technology is being developed as a substitute for depreciated natural capital, as in proposing hydrogen fuel cell cars in view of the depleting oil. And like many technobubbles intensive shrimp and fish farming increases the rate of declining yet masks that with "economic growth"; it's a losing proposition.
Aquaculture of salmon in Tasmania and elsewhere are examples of this losing proposition for society, but not for the companies that make the profit. ‘Fish Farms
Become Feedlots of the Sea’ By Kenneth R. Weiss Los Angeles Times. Like cattle pens, the salmon operations bring product to market cheaply. But harm to ocean life and possibly human health has experts worried.
2770 http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8NVHSQO0.htm
‘WWF: Pollution threatening world rivers’ By ELIANE ENGELER, GENEWA. The
Yangtze River gets more than half of China's industrial waste and sewage. Europe's
Danube has lost most of its surrounding wetlands. And the Rio Grande has become so
619

shallow that salt water is seeping in, bringing ocean fish that threaten freshwater species.
Pollution, global warming and rampant development could destroy some of the world's most iconic rivers in the coming decades, threatening to wipe out thousands of fish species and cause severe water shortages, the World Wide Fund for Nature said in a report. Remember, this is damage that has already been done. Natural bounty will have to be used up where remedial action is possible.
2771
Now, in a yet unpublished report obtained by The Associated Press, an international consulting firm advises the Ugandan government that supercomputer models of globalwarming scenarios for Lake Victoria "raise alarming concerns" about its future and that of the
Nile River, which begins its 4,100-mile northward journey here at Jinja.’ Water-Short
African States Near an Ancient, Elusive Goal: A Pact to Share the Nile’ December 26,
2006 - By Charles J. Hanley, Associated Press ENTEBBE, Uganda - After three years of closed-door talks, nine nations are quietly edging toward a deal to jointly oversee the waters of the Nile, an agreement that has eluded lands along the great river since the days of the pharaohs.
Egyptian farmers have had to cope with decreasing soil fertility since the Aswan Dam was built. As nutrient flows have decreased.
2772
The total length of the Ganges River is about 2,510 km. Along with another river
Yamuna, it forms a large and fertile basin, known as the Gangetic plains, stretching across north India and Bangladesh, and supports one of the highest densities of human population in the world. Indeed, about one in every 12 people on earth (8.5% of world population) live in its catchment area. Due to this incredible concentration of population, pollution and the destruction of habitats is a matter of serious concern. http://www.washingt onpost.com/ wp-dyn/content/ article/2007/ 06/16/AR20070616
00461.html
’A Sacred River Endangered by Global Warming. Glacial Source of Ganges Is Receding’
By Emily Wax, Washington Post Foreign Service, June 17, 2007. WARANASI, India --
With her eyes sealed, Ramedi cupped the murky water of the Ganges River in her hands,
620

lifted them toward the sun, and prayed for her husband, her 15 grandchildren and her bad hip. She, like the rest of
India's 800 million Hindus, has absolute faith that the river she calls Ganga Ma can heal.
2773
There are concerns that extensive deforestation, industrial pollution and global warming are affecting the vegetation and wildlife of the Indus delta, while affecting agricultural production as well. On numerous occasions, water-clogging owing to poor maintenance of canals has affected agricultural production and vegetation. In addition, extreme heat has caused water to evaporate leaving salt deposits that render lands useless for cultivation. There is now concern that the melting of glaciers in the Himalayas may affect the Indus.
The thousands of glaciers studded across 2,400 kilometers, or 1,500 miles, of the Himalayas make up the savings account of South Asia's water supply, feeding more than a dozen major rivers and sustaining a billion people downstream. Their apparent retreat threatens to bear heavily on everything from the region's drinking water supply to agricultural production to disease and floods.
2774
Yellow River is called the "Mother River of China" and "the Cradle of Chinese
Civilization" in China, as the Yellow River basin is the birth-place of the northern
Chinese civilizations and the most prosperous region in the early Chinese history.
However, the frequent devastating flooding, largely due to the elevated river bed in its lower course, has also earned it the unenviable distinction as "China's Sorrow". For centuries, the Yellow River symbolized the greatness and sorrows of China's ancient civilization, as emperors equated controlling the river and taming its catastrophic floods with controlling China. Now, the river is a very different symbol — of the dire state of
China's limited resources at a time when the country's soaring economic growth needs more of everything. http://www.chinadai ly.com.cn/ china/2007- 05/11/content_ 870093.htm
Yellow River is 10%
By Wang Zhuoqiong (China Daily): 2007-05-11 sewage: Official
621

In the past 12 months, some 120 million tons of household sewage, mostly untreated, have been released into the Yellow River in Lanzhou, capital of Gansu Province in
Northwest China, a report by China Central Television (CCTV)
2775
The Amazon River of South America is the largest river in the world by volume, with greater total river flow than the next eight largest rivers combined, and with the largest drainage basin in the world. Because of its vast dimensions it is sometimes called The
River Sea.
2776
The health of the Murray River has declined significantly since European settlement, particularly due to river regulation, and much of its aquatic life including native fish are now declining, rare or endangered. Recent extreme droughts (2003-2004) have put significant stress on River Red Gum forests, with mounting concern over their long term survival.
Introduced fish species such as Carp, Gambusia, Weather Loach, Redfin perch and
Brown Trout and Rainbow Trout have also had serious negative effects on native fish, while Carp have contributed to environmental degradation of the Murray River and tributaries by destroying aquatic plants and permanently raising turbidity. In some segments of the Murray, Carp have been the only species found.
2777
‘Sold Down the River. Dried up, dammed, polluted, overfished—freshwater habitats around the world are becoming less and less hospitable to wildlife.’By Eleanor J. Sterling andMerryD.Camhi http://www.naturalh istorymag. com/index_ archive.html
This article details how over population combined with exploitation has damaged the
Mekong’s ecosystem. It points out that this is what is happening globally. It sums up one element of the decimation of the remaining ANB. This is an element contributing substantially to global entropic growth.
2778 A team of the world’s leading marine biologists is making a last-gasp search for the baiiji, a dolphin that was revered as a goddess of Asia’s mightiest river, the Yangtze, but is now probably the planet’s most endangered mammal.
622

2779 http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,396127,00.html
CLIMATE CHANGE POSTCARD.Is Global Warming Drying Up the Elbe River? The
Elbe River, which starts in the Czech Republic and meanders through most of Germany, including the cities of Dresden and Hamburg, is one Europe's most important waterways.
But there are fears that climate change is endangering this iconic river.
2780
The Hoover and Aswan Dams serve useful purposes at a price.
2781
The Snowy Mountains Hydroelectric scheme has been long regarded as one of
Australia’s major engineering achievements. It also brought in many skilled migrants. It has now provided electricity (much of it wasted) to south eastern regions for forty years.
These are the acclaimed benefits for society. Now the resources are having to be found to undo some of the unintended damage to geodiversity and so bio diversity. The Murray
River is but a shadow of pre-Snowy Mountain scheme self. It does not even reach the sea some of the time. The red gums have suffered too. This story is only too familiar globally.
2782
A recent regional meeting in Arusha concluded that the water levels of the lakes in 54
African countries were declining as a result of climate change.
2783 ‘WHAT WILL IT TAKE TO PROTECT THE GREAT LAKES?’ by Tim Montague.
The Great Lakes are a national treasure
< http://www.precaution.org/lib/06/prescriptionforgreatlakes.051201.pdf
> in danger of ecological collapse. They contain 20 percent of the world's fresh surface water and they provide essential services for the 42 million residents who live in the region -- drinking water, food, biological diversity, and recreation. The lakes also symbolize how humans have damaged the natural world. Industrial pollution, urban sprawl, pesticides, fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, sewage and over-fishing -- have degraded the Great Lakes to the point where their future has become very uncertain. There have been many plans to reduce the impact of human activities on the Lakes. But the political will wasn't there. The Great
Lakes Water Quality Agreement of 1972 was never ratified by the U.S. Congress or the
Canadian Parliament. And ‘Drought drops Superior to near record low’ by Bill
623

McAuliffe Minneapolis Star Tribune, Monday, December 4, 2006.MINNEAPOLIS -
Lake Superior has dropped nearly a foot this year to its lowest late-autumn water level in eight decades, a startling decline that is raising worries about shipping, shorelines and fish populations. Much of the lake's watershed has been ranked in ``extreme'' drought, the next-to-worst category, by the National Drought Mitigation Center for much of the past six months. Areas of northern Minnesota have been at or near all-time rainfall lows since mid-May.
2784
The ecosystem of Lake Victoria and its surroundings have been badly affected by human influence. In 1954, the Nile perch was first introduced into the lake's ecosystem in an attempt to improve fishery yields of in the lake. Introduction efforts intensified during the very early 1960's. The species was present in small numbers until the early to mid 1980's, when it underwent a massive population expansion and came to dominate the fish community and ecology of this world's largest tropical lake. Also introduced was
Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus), now an important food fish for local consumption.
The Nile perch proved ecologically and socioeconomically devastating. Together with pollution born of deforestation and overpopulation (of both people and domestic animals), the Nile perch has brought about a massive transformation in the lake ecosystem and to the disappearance of hundreds of endemic haplochromine cichlid species. Many of these are now presumed to be extinct. At 27,000 square miles, the size of Ireland, Victoria is the greatest of Africa's Great Lakes. It is the biggest freshwater body after Lake Superior. And it has dropped fast, at least six feet in the past three years, and by as much as a half-inch a day this year before November rains stabilized things.
2785 An extreme example lies 1,500 miles northwest of here, deeper in the drought zone, where Lake Chad, once the world's sixth-largest, has shrunk to 2 percent of its 1960s size. And the African map abounds with other, less startling examples, from Lake
Turkana in northern Kenya, getting half the inflow it once did, to the great Lake
Tanganyika south of here, whose level dropped over five feet in five years. “All these lakes are extremely sensitive to climate change," the U.N. Environment Program warned in a global water assessment two years ago.
624

2786 Ozone depletion is an example of where remedial action has been undertaken when unintended consequences have been recognized. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) containing chlorine and bromine have been blamed for thinning the ozone layer because they attack ozone molecules, causing them to break apart. Global remedial action was undertaken in
1985. It has been partially successful to date. A satellite has detected record losses of ozone over Antarctica this year, the European Space Agency (ESA) said on Monday, further damaging the shield that protects the Earth from cancer-causing ultraviolet rays.
There is reason to believe that the boom in air conditioners in India and China is now offsetting the remedial action.
2788 It is the largest groundwater basin in the world
2789
Which is a large proportion of the country.
2790 The number of bores that have ceased to flow greatly exceeds those still flowing
2791
Like uranium mining
2792
There are very few towns in the Outback served by the Basin.
2793
Aboriginal use of its waters was miniscule.
2794
The Olympic Dam mine currently extracts 35 megalitres of water per day from the
Basin. That will rise to 120 megalitres per day with the proposed expansion.
2795
Falling water tables are already adversely affecting harvests in some countries, including China, the world’s largest grain producer. Overpumping has largely depleted the shallow aquifer under the North China Plain, forcing farmers to turn to the region’s deep fossil aquifer, which is not replenishable. Wheat farmers in some areas of the Plain are now pumping from a depth of 300 meters, or nearly 1,000 feet. The Chinese government has grandiose plans to ease the water predicament by building canals and upgrading waste water systems. They have the money to throw at these schemes due to the booming economy. There is no sign, however, that they are counting the eco cost.
Their modification of the ecology could well have major unintended consequences. This could well turn out to be a major divergence. At its September 14th Board meeting, the
Board of Directors of the Barton Springs/Edwards Aquifer Conservation District voted unanimously to declare a Critical Stage Drought for the Barton Springs segment of the
625

Edwards Aquifer illustrates another case, in the U.S. this time, causing real concern.
Hundreds of examples could be cited.
2797
Tendency towards maturity.
2798
The Bee wants to be heard.
< http://www.unknowncountry.com/news/?id=5981 > http://www.unknowncountry.com/ne ws/?id=5981
Now we hear that "a mysterious ailment called Colony Collapse Disorder is causing agricultural honeybees nationwide to abandon their hives and disappear. It's a kind of mass suicide in the bee world." This article provides evidence that genetically modified food is causing a major predicament with bees. The application of GM food production is clearly contrary to the precautionary principle and is showing many signs of having unintended consequences – all for the sake of dollars for a few corporations. The irony is that this may well lead to the decimation of GM crops, so financial losses for the corporations. There is some doubt as to whether it is GM modified crops that are causing this problem.
2799
Botany is a suburb of Sydney that used to have a lot of chemical industries and their operations were not subject to modern safety regulations. Now that Sydney has a major water supply predicament, residents of Botany have started to sink bores to get ground water for their gardens and lawns. The council has had to stop this because the water is too contaminated by chemicals to be useful. Sydney is not the only city to run into this type of predicament. They just seem to be growing exponentially.
2800
There are many cities running into water supply predicaments. The general approach is to address the water supply predicament whilst encouraging the continual growth of the cities. This approach has led cities like Sydney and Perth to seriously consider desalination plants. This means providing water at the expense of using other natural resources, including fossil fuels, to provide the industrial energy required to install and drive the process. These debates are generally governed by financial considerations
626

within the economic and population growth paradigm so appropriateness of the decisions is questionable.
2801
And other living organisms!
2802
Jeff Prince. "Water, Water...Where? " Fort Worth Weekly, November 21,
2006. http://fwweekly. com/content. asp?article= 4264
The dryness that has lingered here for most of the past decade, along with the severe heat of this past summer, is hurting farmers and ranchers again, but it's also affecting cities and towns. Underground water tables are dropping, wells are going dry, and lake levels have dropped low enough to reduce some reservoirs to parched mud and puddles.... "Our aquifers just don't have time to recharge," said Aledo Mayor Kit Marshall.... Rampant growth across North Texas is accentuating the predicament - the area is one of the fastest-growing in the country, with a population that's expected to double in less than 50 years. More and more subdivisions are covering up the pastures, with more homes each year being built that depend on well water.... And making matters worse is the Barnett Shale boom, whose drillers aren't just sticking straws into gas deposits. They're using millions of gallons of water a month in their "frac" drilling process, sucking out groundwater that nearby water-well users believe is affecting their supplies....
2803
Politicians in the eastern states of Australia are trying to face up to this dilemma.
2804
A proposal has been put forward to ship water from the high rainfall west coast of
Tasmania to dry regions of the mainland. It is very doubtful whether the value of the water would justify the use of resources, so the eco cost. The decision, however, is likely to be based on short-term financial considerations.
627

2805 For example there is an area in India where the rural community find it very difficult to afford potable water from the privatized supply while nearby there is a soft drink factory that uses millions of litres of water.
2806
The companies would not understand this. They would probably believe that
‘entropy’ means ‘economy’!
2808
By David Greising, Tribune chief business correspondent
Published May 28, 2007.TEXAS CITY, Texas -- Outside Gate 1 of the second-largest oil refinery in the U.S., a block-lettered sign carries a seemingly simple message: "What You
Say Leads to Action." The 83-year-old plant, large parts of which have been shut down for rebuilding and repair almost continuously since the blast, is emblematic of the woeful state of U.S. refineries. http://www.chicagot ribune.com/ business/ chi-mon_bp_ sidemay28, 1,1404034. story?coll= chi-news- hed&ctrack= 1&cset=true
This is just one example of the consequences of entropic growth of the Body of U.S. civilization. Predicaments are growing that will entail using up some of the remaining natural bounty, at the expense of others. These decisions will not be made wisely if based on who can find the most money!
2809 This is a common problem in the developed countries where the existence of the basic infrastructure is largely taken for granted as the resources are siphoned off to novel developments.
2810 This is one sign that the order of the foundations of the U.S. civilization is declining.
That is, the Body entropy is growing.
2811
Like more interstate highways to ease the transportation of stuff and guzzle gasoline.
2813 The global reduction in fertility due to agriculture is well documented. 1992 Earth
Summit Statistics. Earth Summit Report indicate that the mineral content of the world's farm and range land soil has decreased dramatically
Percentage of Mineral Depletion From Soil During The Past
100 Years, By Continent:
North America 85%
628

South America 76%
Asia
Africa
Europe
76%
74%
72%
Australia 55%
Commercial agricultural practices are causing the loss of approximately six pounds of soil for each pound of food produced.
2816
Earth Policy Institute
Plan B 2.0 Book Byte
For Immediate Release
July 10, 2007
CONSERVING AND REBUILDING SOILS http://www.earthpolicy.org/Books/Seg/PB2ch08_ss3.htm
Lester R. Brown
‘In reviewing the literature on soil erosion, references to the “loss
of protective vegetation” occur again and again. Over the last
half-century, we have removed so much of that protective cover by
clearcutting, overgrazing, and overplowing that we are fast losing soil
accumulated over long stretches of geological time. Eliminating these
excesses and the resultant decline in the earth’s biological productivity depends on a worldwide effort to restore the earth’s vegetative cover, an effort that is now under way in some countries.’ This article details some global activities to remedy the damage that has been done by past agricultural practices. Doubtless they will help to mitigate the decline slightly but they need to be coupled with other mitigation practices, including population reduction.
629

2817
It has been going on for millennia. Parts of the Fertile Crescent was reduced to desert.
The reference below describes what has happened in the state NSW in Australia.
Department of Environment and Conservation (NSW)
Environment Protection Authority https://www.dec.nsw.gov.au/soe/97/ch2/2_1.htm
2.1 Introduction & overview
2.2 Soil fertility decline
2.3 Soil salinity
2818
the CCD problem with honey bees in the U.S. has drawn more attention to the possible dangers of monoculture. A number of eastern states now encourage farmers to embrace biodiversity so as to foster natural pollinators.
2819
however, the ethanol produced as a fuel for cars is often at the expense of the wage slaves, the cane cutters.
2820 http://www.csiro.au/org/FarmingFoodOverview.html
CSIRO Farming and food overview
2821 Another example is that for every bushel of corn produced in Iowa, three bushels of top soil is lost forever (Heinberg, p176)
2822 the current frenzy in some of the United States to extract ethanol from corn to reduce the dependence on oil is a classic case of where expected short-term profits are beating any rational assessment of how to fight the oil addiction.
2824
‘Peak Soil: Why Biofuels are Not Sustainable and a Threat to America's National
Security’ by Alice Friedemann provides valuable insight into the harmful practices in
U.S. agriculture, with particular reference to the unsustainable damage to topsoil.
2825
Tendency towards maturity.
2826 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2007/01/12/AR2007011201890.html
630

‘Down but Not Out. There's still a chance to save the Chesapeake Bay.’ The aims there are admirable but there is little realization that this remedial action entails un-repayable eco costs.
2827
The natural nitrogen cycle has been perturbed by the introduced Topla-Fitsch process.
2828
U.N. finds 200 more oceanic 'dead zones' That's a 34 percent jump from just two years ago, the report said, blaming an increase in pollution. John Heilprin, Associated
Press. Last update: October 19, 2006
< http://www.startribune.com/722/v-print/story/754323.html
2829 http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20040605/bob9.asp
provides a good description of the cause and the consequences in the Gulf. It is a typical example of how synthetic processes have upset natural ecosystems. This is not to say that it necessarily contributes significantly to global entropy increase.
2830
Dale Allen Pfeiffer observes in _Eating Fossil Fuels_ "Yet, due to soil degradation, the increased demands of pest management, and increasing energy costs for irrigation (all of which is examined below), modern agriculture must continue increasing its energy expenditures simply to maintain current crop yields. The Green Revolution is becoming bankrupt." This is an example of how the increase in Body entropy is making the provision of services less effective.
2831
This, of course, includes the de-forestation to provide land to grow soya beans to feed cattle in feedlots and palm trees to provide biofuels for European cars.
2832
EarthTrends Update September 2006: Featured Topic: Can a Green Revolution
Catalyze African Development? It is a seemingly sound program to address the food
631

production predicament in Africa and so contribute to improving the well being of the disadvantaged population. It certainly indicates the scale of the endemic predicaments.
But it is very questionable whether the proposed program will bring about any major improvement. The proposals give the indication of being well intentioned but naïve about the consequences of the novel methods they want to introduce.
2833
Doubtless there will continuing controversy about how much biotechnology can contribute to food production. I believe it is most unlikely that it can make a substantial contribution.
2834
The route of those new freeways cannot take that into account!
2835 Irrigation is very dependent on the availability of industrial energy to drive the pumping.
2836 In India, 250 trillion litres of water are extracted from aquifers for irrigation each year but only 150 trillion litres are replaced by the rain. Consequently, two hundred million people are facing a water-less future.
2837 http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=6188
‘Biofuels: The Five Myths of the Agro-fuels Transition’ by Eric Holt-Giménez, Global
Research, June 30, 2007. Biofuels . The term invokes a life-giving image of renewability and abundance—a clean, green, sustainable assurance in technology and the power of progress. This image allows industry, politicians, the World Bank, the United Nations, and even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to present fuels made from corn, sugarcane, soy and other crops as the next step in a smooth transition from peak oil to a yet-to-be-defined renewable fuel economy. Drawing its power from a cluster of simple cornucopian myths, “biofuels” directs our attention away from the powerful economic interests that benefit from this transition. It avoids discussion of the growing
North-South food and energy imbalance. More fundamentally, it obscures the politicaleconomic relationships between land, people, resources and food. By showing us only one side, “biofuels” fails to help us understand the profound consequences of the industrial transformation of our food and fuel systems— The Agro-fuels Transition.’ This article provides a realistic criticism of the trend towards producing biofuels by commercial interests. It makes a sound case that there is more to be gained by re-
632

localization of the agricultural methods used. It makes a contribution to discussion of mitigation measures but does not consider the need for the reduction of the demand for fuels.
2838 “... a closer look reveals that the rosy future envisioned by
agrofuels promoters in many ways looks like the worst of the past.”
“Transition to agrofuel use exemplifies reforming a system in order
to perpetuate it.” Go to website for links... http://fpif.org/fpiftxt/4533
‘The Agrofuels Trap’Laura Carlsen | September 10, 2007. Editor: Miriam Pemberton.
‘Agrofuel development has arrived on the global stage. Just this year, the number of declarations, dollars, and development plans that have gone to agrofuels are unparalleled in any other sector. An idea that languished for decades has suddenly become the darling of politicians, big business, international financiers and the media.’ This article provides views on the pros and cons of this rapidly growing industry fostered by Big Business with support from some governments. It essentially fosters carmania at the expense of life support for many poor farmers.
2839
The fight for the world's food http://www.independ ent.co.uk/ incoming/ article2697804. ece
Population is growing. Supply is falling. Prices are rising. What will be the cost to the planet's poorest? By Daniel Howden, 23 June 2007. Like any other self-respecting trend this one now has its own name: agflation. Beneath this harmless-sounding piece of jargon
– the conflation of agriculture and inflation - lie two main drivers that suggest that cheap food is about to become a thing of the past. Agflation, to those that believe that it is really happening, is an increase in the price of food that occurs as a result of increased demand from human consumption and the diversion of crops into usage as an alternative energy
633

resource. On the one hand the growing affluence of millions of people in China and India is creating a surge in demand for food - the rising populations are not content with their parents' diet and demand more meat. On the other, is the use of food crops as a source of energy in place of oil, the so-called biofuels boom. As these two forces combine they are setting off warning bells around the world.’ Surprisingly missing from this article is reference to the impact of climate change and declining oil and gas.
2840
We have to blame something else. It could not possibly be the fault of humans, could it?
2841
The results revealed that the world's glaciers and ice caps - defined as all land-based ice except the mighty Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets - began to shrink far more quickly in
2001. On average, the world's glaciers and ice caps lost enough water between 1961 and
1990 to raise global sea levels by 0.35-0.4 mm each year. For 2001-2004, the figure rose to 0.8-1mm each year. Writing in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, the scientists say: "Late 20th century glacier wastage is essentially a response to post-1970 global warming." Dr Kaser said: "There is very, very strong evidence that this is down to human-caused changes in the atmosphere."
2842 It is hard to say whether the drought in south-east Australia is worse than that in south-west U.S.
2843
It is a toss up as which is having the most serious impact!
2844 http://www.azcentra l.com/business/ consumer/ articles/ 0409crops09- ON.html
‘Crop prices soar, pushing up cost of food globally’ by Patrick Barta, The Wall Street
Journal
’Soaring prices for farm goods, driven in part by demand for crop-based fuels, are pushing up the price of food world-wide and unleashing a new source of inflationary pressure.’ This article comments on global inflationary pressures due to a range of impacts on food supply and demand.
634

It gives reason to believe that this is a long-term trend. That trend is consistent with high global entropy.
2846
A five-fold increase in the past century.
2847
Mainly diesel for the tractors but do not forget about all the materials and industrial energy required to manufacture the short-lived tractors.
2848
What a misnomer. They help the plants to grow but do not fertilize the soil. Microorganisms do that over many years.
2849
Pests seem to learn quickly! A Brazilian sugar farmer had to increase the pesticide dosage over the years, at great cost, to maintain his crop. To top it off, his pesticides poisoned him!
2850
The current controversy about Monsanto’s GM herbicide RR use for soya bean growth in Argentine is illustrative of how Big Business is fighting hard to make their profit in the face of many social, political and ecological concerns as well as unintended consequences.
2851
Consider the irony of growing corn to produce ethanol to provide fuel to transport food long distances, often for financial reasons only.
2852 Of course they blithely ignore the consequential waistline growth! Obesity is an unexpected consequence that they are not held responsible for.
2853 Before even transporting or packaging or preparing food, there are ten units of fossilfuel energy going into our food for every one unit of calories we derive. Does this sound like we've gone over the edge with the convenience of (formerly) cheap energy and petroleum feedstocks?
2854
At great unaccounted eco cost.
2855
Terra preta is a proven South American technique for enhancing fertility by putting charcoal in the soil. It has been taken up by Agrichar but it is unlikely to have a significant impact on food production and carbon emissions.
2856 http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/06/27/news/desert.php
Enveloping desert conditions to trigger unrest in Africa and Asia
By Elisabeth Rosenthal
635

Published: June 28, 2007
Desertification caused in large part by climate change will provoke
an environmental crisis of global proportions, massive migration, and political instability in parts of Africa and Central Asia if current
trends are not quickly stemmed, a UN report being released Thursday in New
York concludes.
This report discusses the developing desertification problem in Africa and Asia, its influence on food production and the consequential migration issue. It is a significant element in the draw down of the natural bounties for these regions. The call for a solution to this problem is naïve. The best that can possibly be done is to put into effect measures that slightly slow down desertification and slow down population growth in a humanitarian manner.
2857
China, Sudan
2858
‘Bangladesh cyclone destroys 600,000 tonnes of rice’ By Reuters, November 18,
2007 http://in.news.yahoo.com/071118/137/6ndzw.html
DHAKA (Reuters) - A cyclone that has killed hundreds of people in Bangladesh has also destroyed at least 600,000 tonnes of rice in the fields, exacerbating a food shortage, according to preliminary estimates by the agriculture ministry.
2859 This decline could have started already as the world grain crop has dropped in five of the past six years. Part of this decline is due to drought in the main grain producing countries. It has been exacerbated by the ethanol production frenzy in the U.S. It is indicative of the interrelationship between the symptoms of civilization’s malaise.
2860
As it is so dependent on the supply of industrial energy
636

2861 The "Sceance" is Settled :IPCC
Comment on the Nature Weblog By Kevin Trenberth Entitled
"Predictions of climate"
Our research has led us to conclude that
1. Climate prediction is an initial value problem; e.g. see
Pielke, R.A., 1998: Climate prediction as an initial value problem. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 2743-2746 and
2. Multi-decadal skillful regional climate prediction is not yet been achieved; e.g see
Pielke Sr., Roger A., 2005: Public Comment on CCSP Report
"Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for
Understanding and Reconciling Differences" . 88 pp including appendices.
There is a remarkable weblog on Nature from an unexpected source that supports these views. The weblog is presented by one of the Lead Authors of Chapter 3 the IPCC WG1 report
[Kevin Trenberth] and is in direct conflict with statements that climate science is settled. http://tinyurl. com/2do2o9
These articles contain some very perceptive comments on the inability of climate change models to give a sound view of what is likely to happen. These views are not inconsistent with what I have said about models. That, however, is only one aspect of consideration of
637

climate change. There is copious experiential evidence in many fields that support the assertion that rapid climate change is underway. The models tend to support that assertion, despite their inherent limitations. http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,489508,00.html
June 19, 2007,CLIMATE CHANGE SHIFTING SEASONS. Birds and Bees Prematurely
Active in Greenland. Not only are global temperatures on the rise, but climate change is shifting the seasons too. Researchers in Greenland have found that the birds and the bees in the Arctic are active a full two weeks earlier than they were just a decade ago.’ This is just one example of a multitude of signs that in aggregate strongly support the assertion about climate change.
2862 ‘New crops needed to avoid famines’
By Richard Black,
Environment correspondent, BBC News website. The global network of agricultural research centres warns that famines lie ahead unless new crop strains adapted to a warmer future are developed.
2863
Fortunately, sound, small-scale farming can be more productive than many forms of agribusiness. The positive moves in this direction, however, continue to lose out to the financial forces of big agribusinesses.
2865
There are many who argue that it is one of the major steps forward of society but that is because they do not take into account the full eco cost. The WoEC is low and this is not just because it has been so dependent on the use of fossil fuels.
2866
Meat consumption has zoomed in China with the growing middle-class affluence.
http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2008/04/15/the-pleasures-ofthe-flesh/
‘The Pleasures of the Flesh If you care about hunger, eat less meat. ’By
George Monbiot, Guardian, 15th April 2008. ‘Never mind the economic crisis. Focus for a moment on a more urgent threat: the great food recession which is sweeping the world faster than the credit crunch.’
This article highlights the inefficient meals of producing food for humans – by producing meat.
2867
“Can you think of any problem on any scale, from microscopic to global, whose long-term solution is in any demonstrable way aided, assisted or advanced by having larger populations at the local level, state level, the national level or globally?” - Albert A
Bartlett
2868
I list these later.
638

2869 There are groups fostering organic farming and permaculture but they are having little impact as yet. Terra petra could also contribute.
2871
Turning corn into ethanol is one receiving prominence at the moment in the U.S.
2872 http://hir.harvard.edu/articles/1592/1/
‘Hemispheric Echoes. The Reverberations of Latin American Populism’ Larry Birns is the Director of the Washington-based Council on Hemispheric Affairs. Nicholas Birns,
Ph.D., is a Senior Research Fellow at the Director of the Washington-based Council on
Hemispheric Affairs. He also serves as an assistant professor at Eugene Lang College in
New York City, where he writes frequently on literary and cultural issues. ‘A Resurgent
Populism’ This article comments on the resurgence of Latin American populism, the
‘pink tide’. It is a significant political/social event but is likely to have very little impact on the draw down of global natural capital. It will, however, tend to make the Latin
American countries less subject to preying.
2875
there are proposals for rich countries to provide finance aimed at cutting back on deforestation in developing countries. This could possibly make a worthwhile contribution to slowing natural bounty consumption.
2876
developing cities to house increasing populations in a more luxurious fashion can hardly be regarded as worthwhile as it is unsustainable.
2877
Tendency towards maturity.
2878
Powerful business/political forces are fostering this very dubious activity for their short term gain but the long term loss of the community and its lovely environment.
‘OUT OF CONTROL: THE TRAGEDY OF TASMANIA'S FORESTS’
BY RICHARD FLANAGAN gives details of the ongoing battle between opponents of this ravaging and the Big Business, with the support of politicians, making dollars from it.
2879
The European Commission said today that farming of biofuel crops has become viable in Europe due to rising oil prices, as it announced proposals for widening the subsidies and increasing the farmland set aside for the purpose. This is an example of the common prejudiced decision that has unintended consequences. The most disturbing
639

aspects of this one is that it has been made by a body like the European Commission and that it is based on prices without consideration of the balance between food and fuel. It has had the consequence of fostering de-forestation in Malaysia.
2880
Indonesia's Biofuel Expansion on Rainforest Peatlands to Accelerate Climate
Change. Climate Ark & Rainforest Portal projects of Ecological Internet. February 18,
2007 http://www.climateark.org/ and http://www.rainforestportal.org/
The Indonesian government has endorsed a massive biofuel program which foresees an increase in oil palm plantations to eventually over 26 million hectares. Far from reducing climate change emissions, it will rapidly release up to 50 billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere. This is the equivalent of over 6 years of global fossil fuel emissions and could well make the generally accepted 2 degree C of warming that is considered
"dangerous" unavoidable.
2881 http://www.greenpeace.org/international/press/reports/amazon-soya-crime-file
Greenpeace International ‘Amazon Soya Crime File’, 06 April 2006
This crime file follows the chain of rainforest destruction from the heart of the Amazon, where huge areas of forest are being cleared to plant soya, back to Europe, where
McDonald’s Chicken McNuggets are sold to millions of people every week.
2882 Global warming is expected to dry up and kill off vast tracts of rain forest, and dying forests will feed global warming. This is another example of RFM introduced during the development of civilization that is now becoming noticeable.
2883
We have to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as fast as possible in all feasible ways to give relief to the forests. The forests have an upper limit on temperature and CO2 concentration that they can handle. You can read the 1994 Greenpeace report "The
Carbon Bomb" online at: http://dieoff.org/page129.htm
They predicted the die off that is happening today. Nearly half of the carbon that exists on land is contained in the sweeping boreal forests, which gird the Earth in the northern
640

reaches of Canada, Alaska, Scandinavia and Russia. Scientists now fear that the steady rise in the temperature of the atmosphere and the increasing human activity in those lands are releasing that carbon, a process that could trigger a vicious cycle of even more warming.
2884 http://www.alertnet.org/db/blogs/19064/2007/02/13-173435-1.htm
Trees - Africa's weapon against drought and desert.13 Mar 2007,Blogged by: Alex
Whiting REUTERS/David Gray. One thing that helps keep water in the soil is trees. The two regions in the world that have lost the most forest cover are Africa and Latin
America, according to the < http://www.fao.org/docrep/009/a0773e/a0773e00.htm
>
State of the World's Forests 2007, released on Tuesday. Whereas many regions are reversing centuries of deforestation, Africa lost nearly 10 percent of its forests in the last
15 years. Some countries, however, are bucking the trend. Farmers in Niger have saved their land from the encroaching Sahara desert, and local researchers are amazed to find that trees have spread to over 3 million hectares in just two or three decades. And to boot, the process has cost practically nothing. In an excellent article published in the
< http://www.nytimes.com/ >New York Times last month, Lydia Polgreen explains how the farmers transformed their lives and land. It will not help to mitigate global warming however.
2885
A lot of it in Asia is illegal. Elsewhere attempts by environmentalists and sometimes governments to reduce logging are being fought by entrenched Big Business.
2886
Wikipedia gives some insight into the role of biodiversity in the behavior of the ecosystem.
2888 ‘Last rites for a marine marvel?’ by Richard Black, Environment correspondent, BBC
News website, 17 October 2007 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7040011.stm
’Bluefin tuna may just be the coolest fish on the planet.’ This article highlights a growing predicament – how to feed an increasing population with decreasing natural resources – the blue fin tuna in this case.
641

2889 'Only 50 years left' for sea fish’ by Richard Black,
Environment correspondent, BBC News website http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6108414.stm
There will be virtually nothing left to fish from the seas by the middle of the century if current trends continue, according to a major scientific study.
2890
‘Sea Sends Distress Call in One-Note Chowders ‘ By MOLLY O'NEILL,Stonington,
Me. http://www.nytimes. com/2007/ 01/17/dining/ 17chow.html
gives details of the decimation of fisheries off the coast of Maine. It is just one example of a global trend brought about by there being too many people to feed but exacerbated by Big Business.
2891 ‘Fully-fledged trawling ban thwarted at UN’ November 26, 2006 http://www.smh. com.au/articles/ 2006/11/25/ 1164341455411. html
Fishing nations including China and South Korea have blocked UN negotiators from imposing a full-fledged ban against destructive bottom trawling on the high seas.
2892
Sea 'dead zones' threaten fish http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3577711.stm
By Alex Kirby. BBC News Online environment correspondent in Jeju, Korea
About 75% of the world's fish stocks are already being overexploited, but Unep says the dead zones, which now number nearly 150 worldwide, will probably prove a greater menace.
2893
The warming and acidification of the oceans is having a measurable deleterious impact on the marine chain.
2894 ‘Ocean Map Charts Path of Human Destruction’ By Eli Kintisch,
ScienceNOW Daily News, 14 February 2008. BOSTON--Four years in the making, a groundbreaking new map of the state of the world's oceans was released today, and its message is stark: Human activity has left a mark on nearly every square kilometer of sea, severely compromising ecosystems in more than 40% of waters.’ This article describes an assessment of the depreciation of one element of natural capital.
642

2895 ‘WIND SHIFTS DEWASTATE OCEAN LIFE’ by Jonathan Fildes, BBC News, San
Francisco, February 17, 2007 provides detail on another possible impact of climate change on marine life as recorded in three regions. This adds to other factors, like overfishing, in accentuating the decline.
2896 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/21/us/21fish.html
Fish-Killing Virus Spreading in the Great Lakes,By SUSAN SAULNY, April 21, 2007.
A virus that has already killed tens of thousands of fish in the eastern Great Lakes is spreading, scientists said, and now threatens almost two dozen aquatic species over a wide swath of the lakes and nearby waterways.
2897
This comprises repairing damage done to the free operations of ecosystem by human activities. The repair inevitably involves expensive technology. It is a typical lose-lose situation!
2898
China is developing new varieties of rice to counter the lower yields for traditional varieties due to climate change and to meet the increasing demand. It is a positive but weak mitigation action.
2900
But hardly a self-regulating ability similar to what Gaia had before civilization interfered!
2901
It is ironical that many well off people have had to search for an outlet of their energy because their energy slaves have robbed their lives of a sense of purpose.
2902 http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=5776
Choosing between life and lifestyle. By Peter McMahon - posted Monday, 30 April 2007.
This article provides a lot of sensible comment on how we should power down and so restore a better quality of life.
2903 FARMING IN THE CITY http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/Seg/PB2ch11_ss4.htm
643

Lester R. Brown. ‘Given the near inevitable rise in future oil prices, the economic benefits of expanding urban agriculture, even in affluent societies, will become much more obvious. Aside from supplying more fresh produce, it will help millions discover the social benefits and the psychological well-being that urban gardening can bring.’ This article supplies appreciable detail of global urban gardening activities and the consequent benefits. It is a trend that can be expected to grow with the vegetables – but probably not rapidly enough.
2904
The advertising and marketing of stuff will hardly be viable when no natural bounty can be spared to produce stuff.
2906
As a reminder, it is absolutely un-repayable. It is another of those pesky irreversible processes!
2907
‘Continent-size toxic stew of plastic trash fouling swath of Pacific Ocean’ by Justin
Berton, Chronicle Staff Writer, October 19, 2007 http://sfgate. com/cgi-bin/ article.cgi? f=/c/a/2007/ 10/19/SS6JS8RH0. DTL
This article provides details of the plastics accumulation in the Great Pacific Garbage
Patch to highlight an intractable problem.
2908
The EU has installed a carbon market with the expectation that it will force companies to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions else pay for the excesses. This approach is based on the premise that the market is determining the real value of the goods produced. It is indicative of the developing collapse that market forces have not worked well in de-regulation of electricity supply in American States. This has led to a number of utilities making bad decisions – to the ultimate cost of the user.
2911
it was fascinating to compare the various phases of the lives of a person with that of a power station from the decision to create the life through to the end. They both need inputs and excrete outputs for continuing operation. The human goes through the growing phase while the power station goes through the construction phase. The aging processes have similarities but with different types of maintenance.
644

2912 this is consistent with Lovelock’s theory with respect to the nature of organisms. It is not usual to regard a power station as an organism with a life of its own but, on reflection, the analogy is credible.
2913
The OECD study critical of the UK's "strong" pro-incineration bias can be downloaded from http://www.oecd. org/env/waste.
Its Exec summary concludes: ‘In both the UK and Netherlands, there is currently a strong preference given to incineration compared to land filling of true waste as reflected e.g. in the landfill taxes they apply. A similar preference underlies the Landfill Directive of the
European Union, which fixes upper limits for the amounts of biodegradable waste member states are allowed to landfill.’ This is indicative of the emerging predicaments of too many people consuming too much. Handling these wastes will entail an increasing draw down of the remaining natural bounty.
2914
It has been a salutary lesson for me to realize what eco cost I have invoked in my lifetime. I have driven and flown many hundreds of thousands of kilometres. I have used large amounts of electricity in home and office. I have used and thrown out large amount of stuff, much of which could well have been given much longer useful lives. I have cost the ecology much more than kangaroos, whales or eagles. On the other hand, there are many rich people whose conspicuous consumption comes at a much greater eco cost.
2915
That is, rapidly reducing the ability of Gaia to provide goods and services by degrading resource availability, geodiversity and biodiversity.
2916 Any evolutionary change to global entropy during this time would have been negligible in comparison.
2918 A degree of disorder following the Second Law
2919
so increased order as per Fourth Law
2921
There is a tendency in developed countries like U.S. to concentrate more on services and import goods. This is a way of passing some of the eco cost to those countries manufacturing the goods. It contributes to the high material standard of living with other countries paying some of the price by using up their natural resources.
645

2922 It is to be expected that Gaia will slowly become a balanced climax ecosystem again following the perturbation of civilization. There does not seem to be grounds for the assertion that it will be the nemesis of Gaia. However, the minerals that have been extracted and used, like oil, will not be replaced.
2923
Cleveland ‘The matter-energy flow is linear and unidirectional, beginning with the depletion of low entropy resource stocks from nature and ending with the pollution of the environment with high entropy wastes’.
2924
Irreversible by operations implemented by humans but remedial to some extent by natural forces over eons.
2926
Wisconsin lost almost 5 percent of its cropland from 2000 to 2005, according to a recent study by the nonprofit Corporation for Enterprise Development.That's equivalent to 30,000 acres of cropland a year, or nearly two townships, Nilsestuen said. Seven other states, none of them in the Midwest, lost a larger percentage of their cropland during the five-year span, the group said.
Those states were: California, Georgia, Vermont, Nevada, Massachusetts, Hawaii and
Delaware. This is just one example of what is happening globally. This is virtually an irreversible process and its impact will become much more apparent when the fossil fuel decline hits synthetic food production.
2927
Every process installed by humans entails the degradation of natural resources to waste permanently after providing transient value. The temporary positive disappears but the negative remains.
2928
If you were to sit down and mentally list the positives (like the development of
Docklands) and the negatives (de-forestation and desertification worldwide), it is most likely that you would be uncertain of where the balance lay. The Consequence Axiom removes that uncertainty as it explicates that each positive comes at the cost of a negative. Society tends to laud the transitory positives and ignore most of the perpetuating negatives. That attitude cannot, of course, continue. Reality will hit hard in unpredictable manners.
646

2929 Only some of the economic growth is beneficial in that it improves the lives of the marginalized. That eco cost is worthwhile. In many cases, especially in the developed countries, it has gone too far so it is not worthwhile, especially as it reduces the quality of living.
2931 http://www.richardheinberg.com/museletter/187
Big Melt Meets Big Empty. Rethinking the Implications of Climate Change and Peak Oil
This article is a realistic discussion of the emerging problems of climate change and peak oil and what may be done to mitigate the consequences, taking into account the wide gap between rich and poor countries. It is decidedly optimistic about what action will take place and, as usual, does not address the over population issue.
2932 Bridging Peak Oil and Climate Change activism http://www.richardheinberg.com/museletter/177
’The problems of Climate Change and Peak Oil both result from societal dependence on fossil fuels. But just how the impacts of these two problems relate to one another, and how policies to address them should differ or overlap, are questions that have so far not been adequately discussed.’ Heinberg takes a realistic look at the need to combine efforts to ameliorate the impact of fossil fuel depletion and climate change on the operation of civilization. He does mention over population , the lack of equity and other material problems but not the insidious nature of the economic growth paradigm. He conveys the impression that human cleverness can be relied to mitigate the holistic problem it has created. He does not go into the reduced capability of the ecosystem to provide the necessary goods and services for the remediation of the malfeasance whilst covering the operation of civilization.
2933
The Oil Drum: Canada ‘The Round-Up: September 4th 2007’.Posted by Stoneleigh.
This is a realistic examination of aspects of the current chaotic scene in the developed countries. The major criticism of it is that it treats the various aspects as though they are independent and the only predicaments. It looks at many dramatic global signs of climate change and its impact on food produation and water supply. It discusses the looming
647

financial disaster stemming from the sub-prime failing in the U.S. without noting that the rapidly rising food and fuel prices are bound to have a significant influence on the number of mortgage defaults. It discusses the aims to promote energy security based on very doubtful views that the so called renewables can fill the void left by the fossil fuels even as the population and the economy grows. It does not relate this net situation to the likely global depression. These weakness in the discussion are compounded by leaving out the potential of the other major economies, China, Japan, EU, Russia, India, Brazil and others to have a significant impact on the global chaos. The irony is that, in the main, they have stronger economies that the US so are more able to adapt to the shocks.
2934
It was common in the past for communities to migrate when resources became scarce. The global community has nowhere to go now! Talk about emigration to other planets is just that – talk. It could never have an impact on global over population and over consumption.
2935
There is a common argument that, for example oil, left in the ground is a waste of a resource. That is an illogical, hypothetical argument. The simple fact of the matter is that civilization has used about half that exhaustible natural resource and is now very dependent on using as much as it can of what remains. Hopefully, it will learn to use the remainder more wisely.
2936 In which insolation, soil and water help oil and gas products to supply food to the populace.
2937
These are the two main failings. We have noted many others.
2938 ‘The Immutable Duality’ http://candobetter.org/node/238
2939
‘In Greek mythology, Pandora was the first woman. Each god helped create her by giving her unique gifts. Zeus ordered her creation as a punishment for mankind, in retaliation for Prometheus' having stolen fire and then giving it to humans for their use.
She is most famous for carrying a jar (or box) containing all the world's evils. She releases these evils, and tries to close the lid but it was too late. Along with these evils came Hope, Humanity's only salvation.’ Wikipedia.
648

It is ironical that the inventiveness and capabilities of modern man enabled the extraction of the exhaustible fossil fuels from the crustal store to provide the energy to drive the development of industrial civilization also enabled the production of the material exacerbating wastes that is driving climate change. This energy has been industrial civilization’s equivalent of the fire stolen by Prometheus. Greenhouse gas emissions, with the devastation of the environment and other malfeasances, have been the ‘evils’ let out of the box. Hope did not get out, for good reason.
2941
Cutting down a tree to provide fuel for cooking provides a common example. The input to the process results in the soil being robbed of nutrients while the local ecological balance is disrupted. The output from this process consists of the gases emitted in the burning of the wood. Both contribute to the declining of the natural capital.
2943
‘the idea that rich countries can pay poor countries to restrict their emissions.’ That means the poor countries would use less industrial energy and do less logging. They would use the money to import goods from other countries that use the energy, so produce the emissions, to make the goods. This transaction would increase the standard of living in the poor countries at the expense of the rich (so a feel good) but have negligible impact on the emissions.
2944
This would take into account the increasing amount of embodied resources used as the quality of the source materials degrades with extraction.
2945 In many regions where it is wasted as a fuel for transportation but there are communities that cannot afford it to cook their scanty meals.
2946 There are a number of large countries that take the view that they should have as much as the U.S.!
2947 http://www.enn.com/today.html?id=12095
Clean Energy 50 Percent of World Supply by 2050, Report Says
January 25, 2007 By Alister Doyle, Reuters
649

OSLO -- Clean energies could surge to supply half of world demand by 2050 if governments crack down on use of fossil fuels, said a study by the renewable energy industry and an environmental group on Thursday. The European Renewable Energy
Council (EREC) and Greenpeace said renewable energies -- including wind, hydro, solar, tidal power and biomass could leap from 13.2 percent of world supply if governments step up a fight against global warming. "Renewable energy, combined with the smart use of energy, can deliver half of the world's energy needs by 2050," EREC and Greenpeace said in a report entitled "Energy (R)evolution". "The bad news is that time is running out." The really bad news is that this view is inane rubbish. There are numerous studies that show the very limited capabilities of these so-called renewables to even partially replace the concentrated energy of the fossil fuels. Biomass fuels have obvious and predictable reasons for failure. H. T. Odum says that time explains why renewable energy provides such low energy yields compared to non-renewable fossil fuels. The more work left to nature, the higher the energy yield, but the longer the time required. Although coal and oil took millions of years to form into dense, concentrated solar power, all we had to do was extract and transport them. With every step required to transform a fuel into energy, there is less and less energy yield. (Odum 1996). The above line of approach also tends to support business as usual in devastating the ecosystem.
2948
There is a noticeable trend for oil-producing countries like Russia and Venezuela to control their exports of oil. This could well be because they are looking realistically at their future industrial energy needs.
2949
Dwindling of Rare Metals Imperils Innovation.’ Supplies of indium, used in liquidcrystal displays, and of hafnium, a critical element for next-generation semiconductors, could be exhausted by 2017, according to a new report.’ By Richard Martin,
InformationWeek, May 29, 2007. ‘The world may soon find itself running out of rare metals used to form key components in high-tech devices from cell phones to semiconductors to solar panels, according to a report in New Scientist magazine.’ This is another emerging indication that industrial society is running into more problems because
650

of its blind consumption of exhaustible natural resources, its stupid draw down of natural capital encouraged by ‘capitalism’.
2950
In the broadest sense rather than just relating to society, which is the common sense.
2951
Earth Policy News -- Ecolabeling: Voting With Our Wallets. Earth
Policy Institute, Plan B 2.0 Book Byte. November 5, 2007. ‘ECOLABELING: VOTING
WITH OUR WALLETS’ http://www.earthpolicy.org/Books/Seg/PB2ch12_ss4.htm
Lester R. Brown. ’One instrument that can help in the environmental restructuring of the economy is ecolabeling. Labeling products that are produced with environmentally sound practices lets consumers vote with their wallets.’ This article details how ecological labeling is used to identify practices that are supposed to be ecologically sustainable. It is based on a fallacious argument because the declining of the natural bounty by the draw down of exhaustible resources is not included. Nevertheless, it is a progressive measure in that it aims to reduce consumption of natural resources.
2952
‘Earth's tropics belt expands’ By SETH BORENSTEIN, AP Science Writer, Dec 2,
2007. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/expanding_tropics
Earth's tropical belt seems to have expanded a couple hundred miles over the past quarter century, which could mean more arid weather for some already dry subtropical regions, new climate research shows.’ This is just one indication that the climate change is occurring more rapidly than the IPCC report suggests, largely because of the emergence of factors not currently included in their models. This increases the uncertainty of how much natural bounty capital remains by only a trivial amount.
2953
Consumption of energy and many other critical resources is consistently breaking records, disrupting the climate and undermining life on the planet, according to the latest
Worldwatch Institute report, Vital Signs 2007–2008 . The 44 trends tracked in Vital Signs illustrate the urgent need to check consumption of energy and other resources that are contributing to the climate crisis, starting with the largest polluter, the United States, which accounted for over 21 percent of global carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning in 2005. Europe, already feeling the effects of climate change, should pressure the U.S. to
651

join international climate negotiations, according to Erik Assadourian, Vital Signs Project
Director."The world is running out of time to head off catastrophic climate change, and it is essential that Europe and the rest of the international community bring pressure to bear on U.S. policymakers to address the climate crisis," said Assadourian, who spoke at the
Barcelona launch of Vital Signs. "The United States must be held accountable for its emissions, double the per capita level in Europe, and should follow the EU lead by committing to reducing its total greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent by 2050."
2954 The Oil Depletion Protocol is a proposal to ease the power down required. This proposal, however, comes only one aspect of the holistic predicament. What about fertile soil and water? The discussions on how to slow climate change is just one of the forward looking measures that should be embraced.
2955
With China, Russia, India, Brazil striving mightily to take over the mantle from the
U.S. of being the most destructive of the life support system.
2956
It is fascinating to surmise on how the elite of the Sumerian, Mayan and Easter Island civilizations made the same mistake.
2958 This is akin to the panic Titanic’s engine room when the bow lookouts yelled to the bridge about the iceberg looming out of the mist.
2959 There will be some resistance to Washington going the same way as
New Orleans!
2960 Wind, solar, geothermal etc. systems will doubtless provide partial substitutes but at an appreciable eco cost premium.
2962 The notion that people will give up irrational beliefs when presented with solid evidence is itself an irrational belief, unsupported by the evidence. --- George Lakoff
2963 Australia's federal Energy Minister Martin Ferguson said very little had been done on industry development since the previous government established a taskforce to look into it in 2001."Australia needs a new generation of nation building industries and infrastructure, capitalising on our resource strengths and our competitive advantages, and unlocking their wealth for the Australian people," he said. http://au.news. yahoo.com/ 080226/2/ 15yfq.html
He made no mention of Australia’s resource weaknesses, lack of fertile soil, potable groundwater, effective rail transport system – and political wisdom.
2964 ‘Pumped Up: Chevron Drills Down 30,000 Feet to Tap Oil-Rich Gulf of Mexico’
652

This article provides an appreciation of the technical difficulties encountered in trying to extract oil deep down in the Gulf of Mexico. Whilst it indicates the skill and dedication of the personnel involved in this extremely difficult task it does not provide any justification for extracting this exhaustible material for it to be wasted in providing a fuel for SUVs and jumbo jets. That is justified by being a profitable enterprise for those involved in getting its derivatives to market. The article highlights how this technology has expanded oil reserves, at great cost, without noting that this expansion is so small that it will have little influence on when world oil supply is in critical decline. It discusses the technical advances made this century without noting that 20% of the global reserves have been used in that time. The reality is that these dedicated oil industry workers are blindly chasing an illusion.
2965 So civilization is inherently a transient phenomenon.
Industrialization has just speeded up the process.
2966 http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071119/ap_on_re_us/desert_water_park
[Consultant (Rita Maguire, a former director of the Arizona Department of Water
Resources who studied water availability for Waveyard developers, ) justifies this in terms of satisfying the recreational needs of the community] Huge Water Park Planned for Arizona Desert
By CHRIS KAHN,11/19/07,MESA, Ariz. (AP) ‘By tapping rivers and sucking water from deep underground, developers have covered Arizona with carpets of Bermuda grass and dotted the parched landscape with swimming pools, golf courses and lakeshore homes.’ This is an example of the type of idiocy driven by so-called market forces that do not take into account the Dependence on Nature Law. These water resources could be put to much more worthwhile uses, like aiding food production.
2967
The financial games of money chasing money have little actual impact on the operation of materialistic society.
2968 It seems to be an example of the intuitive appreciation by business of the mounting difficulty of civilization coping with less available natural bounty capital.
653

2969 It is ironical that so many seemingly knowledgeable people can look ahead at what will happen to the intangible economy yet ignore what will happen to the ecosystem even though the latter is governed by natural laws, so is predictable.
2970 http://www.ijtr.org/Vol%201%20No1/2.%20Hall_IJTR_Article_Vol1_No1.pdf
‘THE NEED FOR A NEW, BIOPHYSICAL-BASED PARADIGM IN ECONOMICS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE AGE OF OIL’
Hall provides an overview of the emerging field of biophysical economics, which has some similarities to ecological economics. Both see economic production as being subject to ecological constraints. He makes the point that this was the view of economics in the days before cheap energy enabled the industrial revolution and the emergence of neoclassical economics based on market forces without ecological constraints. The article concentrates on the role of energy in driving economies. There is no attempt to define what is meant by energy although information is regarded as a form
2970
. Yet the model is quoted as being consistent with natural laws, including those of thermodynamics. It argues soundly about the Limits to Growth that society should be facing up to. But it does not recognize the existence of the Dependence on Nature Law, the fact that everything that society has and does is dependent on using natural resources, most of which are exhaustible. That is, civilization is not sustainable. Hall decries the fact that biophysical economics has not yet had a big impact on discussions about the future of industrialized society. It can be criticized, however, for only looking at only some aspects of what is happening. This failure means that it is unlikely to attain the credibility that will foster its widespread adoption. Where does it take into account that the impact of the extremely large human population on the biodiversity and geodiversity of the ecosystem? Where does it take into account the enormous infrastructure of civilization that has been built up and needs to be maintained using some of the remaining resources? Where does it take into account the impact of the use of cheap energy on the climate?
654

2972 A number of humanitarian measures could be introduced that would reduce the rate of human reproduction. They would, however, only assist in easing the over population issue.
2974
rising oil prices is having hardly any impact on American drivers but making it harder for many of the global poor to be able to cook their food. From the NY Times,
January 19, 2008. ‘An Oil Quandary: Costly Fuel Means Costly Calories’ By KEITH
BRADSHER.KUANTAN, Malaysia — Rising prices for cooking oil are forcing residents of Asia's largest slum, in Mumbai, India, to ration every drop. Bakeries in the
United States are fretting over higher shortening costs. And here in Malaysia, brand-new factories built to convert vegetable oil into diesel sit idle, their owners unable to afford the raw material.
2975 http://www.guardian .co.uk/science/ 2008/jan/ 21/environmental .debt1
Rich countries owe poor a huge environmental debt. The environmental damage caused to developing nations by the world's richest countries amounts to more than the entire third world debt of $1.8 trillion, according to the first systematic global analysis of the ecological damage imposed by rich countries. Using data from the World Bank and the
UN's Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, the researchers examined so-called
"environmental externalities" or costs that are not included in the prices paid for goods but which cover ecological damage linked to their consumption. They focused on six areas: greenhouse gas emissions, ozone layer depletion, agriculture, deforestation, overfishing and converting mangrove swamps into shrimp farms.’ This article highlights the vast difference in the rate of draw down of this element of natural capital between the developed and undeveloped countries. It talks in terms of the financial debt that the developed countries owe to the prey. They will be no way this debt can be even partially repaid using some of the remaining natural capital, even if the political will could be found.
2979 ‘Drilling opponents wrong to claim wildlife threats’ By Dave Galt
Billings Gazette,8/28/2007. ‘Energy development has had an overwhelmingly positive impact on the state, contributing more than $5 billion and supporting more than 12,000 jobs. Claims that oil and natural gas development can not be balanced with hunting and fishing are simply untrue. Since 1915, Montana has had nearly 40,000 oil and natural gas wells drilled, in many cases located in prime hunting grounds, and less than 10,000 of them are still active today. Inactive well locations are abandoned and reclaimed. At the same time, wildlife populations of all species are flourishing. Oil and natural gas developers in Montana work hard to produce our energy resources in an environmentally
655

responsible way.’ This article discusses how Montana has taken advantage of its oil and natural gas resource bounty without seriously damaging the environment. There is no mention, however, of how they are going to maintain the standard of living and the infrastructure that underpins their life style as these irreplaceable resources become scarce.
2980 ‘GAS PRICES RISE ON REFINERIES¹ RECORD FAILURES’ By Jad Mouawad,
New York Times,July 22, 2007
< http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/22/business/22refine.html
>
This is just another example of the problems that will emerge with entropic growth, the increase in disorder of civilization.
2981
‘Coastal Mega-Cities In for a Bumpy Ride’ By Srabani Roy, Inter Press Service,
Wednesday 28 March 2007. New York – ‘About 643 million people, or one-tenth of the world's population, who live in low lying coastal areas are at great risk of oceans-related impacts of climate change, according to a global research study to be released next month.’ This article indicates one possible major consequence of climate change that will entail the usage of some of the remaining natural bounty for the essential adaptation.
Society will have to learn to live with these consequences. Unfortunately, it is the poorer countries that are likely to be hit the hardest.
2982
IEA said ‘There is a big opportunity because the West is about to enter into a phase of replacing its ageing power generation infrastructure (60 per cent of power plants in the
OECD will be "retired" in the next 10 years), while developing countries are putting up hundreds of new power stations.’ Whilst the IEA forecast is unreasonably based on business as usual development, it does highlight the fact that appreciable resources will have to be expended in just maintaining current power capabilities because of the aging of plants and equipment.
656

2983 We essentially deny its existence. Few would think of tearing up highways because they are redundant and the land is needed for agriculture! That problem will become more apparent soon.
2984 http://www.richardheinberg.com/museletter/185
‘Peak Everything’, MuseLetter #185 / September 2007, by Richard Heinberg contains his usual prescient view of what is happening and the
‘horns of the Universal Ecological Dilemma’. However, he does not cover how society is going to cope with maintaining the vast infrastructure, primarily in the cities, as it powers down through lack of sufficient natural bounty.
2985
The growth paradigm will only be slowly overtaken by power down as the wisdom of the Earthly Revolution spreads.
2986
Likening how the body of civilization needs to consume natural bounty to the needs of your body will help you to appreciate what is happening in a holistic sense.
2988 http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2007/09/12/3791/
Published on Wednesday, September 12, 2007 by Reuters. ‘Global Warming Impact Like
‘Nuclear War’’ by Jeremy Lovell. London – ‘Climate change could have global security implications on a par with nuclear war unless urgent action is taken, a report said on
Wednesday. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) security think-tank said global warming would hit crop yields and water availability everywhere, causing great human suffering and leading to regional strife. “Even if the international community succeeds in adopting comprehensive and effective measures to mitigate climate change, there will still be unavoidable impacts from global warming on the environment, economies and human security,” it added.’ This article articulates the wide range of problems likely to occur due to the climate change already fostered by humanity’s exuberant use of fossil fuels and deforestation. Surprisingly, and irrationally, it presumes population growth will continue and does not mention how the declining availability of energy will jeopardize mitigation attempts.
657

2989 Hard coal mining in the Ruhr has created a horrendous legacy of dangerous geological disruption.
2990
There are a number of regions where re-forestation has occurred naturally when the human plunderers have moved on. There are, however, many regions that have been unable to recover. Look at what used to be called the Fertile Crescent.
2991
‘Monsanto dumped toxic waste in UK. Inquiry after chemicals found at site 30 years after their disposal.’ By John Vidal, environment editor. February 12, 2007.The Guardian
Evidence has emerged that the Monsanto chemical company paid contractors to dump thousands of tonnes of highly toxic waste in British landfill sites, knowing that their chemicals were liable to contaminate wildlife and people. Yesterday the Environment
Agency said it had launched an inquiry after the chemicals were found to be polluting underground water supplies and the atmosphere 30 years after they were dumped.’ This is just one example of a major predicament that is common in industrialized countries.
2992
As an example, clean air acts in the U.S. reduced sulfate particle emissions by 39%.
The rains returned.
2993 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/oct/24/climatechange.scienceofclimatecha
nge
‘Warming could wipe out half of all species’ by Alok Jha, science correspondent, The
Guardian, October 24 2007. Rising global temperatures caused by climate change could trigger a huge extinction of plants and animals, according to a study. Though humans would probably survive such an event, half of the world's species could be wiped out.
Scientists at the University of York and the University of Leeds examined the relationship between climate and biodiversity over the past 520m years - almost the entire fossil record - and uncovered an association between the two for the first time. When the
Earth's temperatures are in a "greenhouse" climate phase, they found that extinctions rates were relatively high. Conversely, during cooler "icehouse" conditions, biodiversity increased. The results, published today in the Proceedings of the Royal Society B,
658

suggest that the predictions of a rapid rise in the Earth's temperature due to man-made climate change could have a similar effect on biodiversity.
2994
They could expand appreciably with redirection of human effort from the declining, wasteful fields of employment.
2995 http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/SYD145470.htm
Australia to build cross-continent climate corridor
09 Jul 2007. Source: Reuters. By Rob Taylor. CANBERRA, July 9 (Reuters) Australia will create a wildlife corridor spanning the continent to allow animals and plants to flee the effects of global warming, scientists said on Monday. The 2,800-kilometer (1,740 mile) climate "spine", approved by state and national governments, will link the country's entire east coast, from the snow-capped Australian alps in the south to the tropical north -- the distance from London to Romania.’ This sounds great and will be widely applauded. There is no mention of the fact that it is a small, remedial action likely to have only a trivial impact on the continuing devastation of the ecosystem that is the specialty of humans.
2996 ‘Architects vie with 'City of the Future' designs.
Commentary: Far-out technology may be closer than you think.’ http://www.marketwa tch.com/news/ story/coming- city-near- you-2108/ story.aspx? guid=%7BA0A7F221 %2D64FE%2D4A42%
2D873D%2D0C93F86 8DD0B%7D
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) – ‘In 100 years, San Francisco will have robotic buses and subways, buildings will generate their own power through the sun and wind, and an underground network of carbon nanotubes will store and provide hydrogen power.’ This article details some innovative ideas for a future San Francisco. There seems to be a number of sound concepts, most of them making use of the reliable solar energy. However, there is the presumption that there will be sufficient natural bounty capital, additional to the solar income, to demolish existing industrial capital, install the innovative systems while allowing the operation of a growing population. This really is wishful thinking.
2998 there have been widespread discussions about climate change, over population and oil shortage but little about other predicaments, like this correcting damage to geodiversity.
659

2999 http://www.harpers.org/archive/2007/10/0081742
‘Toxic inaction: Why poisonous, unregulated chemicals end up in our blood’ BY Mark
Schapiro, October 2007, VIEW. This American article provides details of the investigations that have been carried out, primarily in the EU, to gain some appreciation of the impact of toxic chemicals on human well being. This use of chemicals in products is one element of the devastation of the ecosystem for the sake of the sale of stuff to gullible consumers. It is, however, closer to the bone than (other) species extinctions.
3000
Earth Policy Institute, Plan B 2.0 Book Byte, August 2, 2007
‘FAREWELL TO “FLUSH AND FORGET”’ http://www.earthpolicy.org/Books/Seg/PB2ch11_ss5.htm
Lester R. Brown. In urban settings, the one-time use of water to disperse human and industrial wastes is becoming an outmoded practice, made obsolete by new technologies and water shortages. Water enters a city, becomes contaminated with human and industrial wastes, and leaves the city dangerously polluted. Toxic industrial wastes discharged into rivers and lakes or into wells also permeate aquifers, making water--both surface and underground--unsafe for drinking. And their toxic wastes are destroying marine ecosystems, including local fisheries. The time has come to manage waste without discharging it into the local environment, allowing water to be recycled indefinitely and reducing both urban and industrial demand dramatically.’ This article describes waste and water treatment problems and some associated remedial activities.
3002
They are increasingly being joined by middle classes in the developed countries who believe they have also earned the right to ravage the environment. But there are billions that have been left behind and they do not have any leverage to advance their cause.
3003
These parasites generally enjoy a higher standard of living than the contributors due to the misleading view of what is really worthwhile!
3004 Aided by cheap labor where business can manage to get away with that social malfeasance.
3005 China makes the greatest current ‘contribution’ to this means of accentuating natural capital consumption.
660

3006 There are quite a few commentators who question the morality and ethics of society’s devastation of its life-support, the ecosystem. Most people do not have this option as they strive to get just the basics. On the other hand, the blatant consumptionism of the rich is clearly immoral.
3007
They are happy to have caught affluenza even though there is no cure – as yet.
3008
The contagion of this American disease to emerging middle classes in China and
India is out of control. There are very few cities world wide where it is not having grievous impact.
3011
With the smart bourgeois leading the way in the Earthly Revolution
3013
An article describes how some elements of well off society have substituted synthetic forms of manual exertion that are non-productive for the natural, productive ones. For example, it cites an indoor rowing machine that is used for exercise to burn up energy obtained by eating food. This is compared to rowing a boat to go fishing for food to provide energy, only some of which is used in rowing. It discusses what has happened in various societies without mentioning what this has done to the operation of the ecosystem. It has meant that much human energy is wasted in industrialized society, while concentrated energy from exhaustible natural sources is used up, often doing what the human energy is capable of doing. Doing synthetic use of energy is not a worthwhile realization of the irrevocable eco cost. The article discusses why people waste resources in this manner but does not bring out the reality of what this development has done in accelerating the wasteful consumption of natural bounty.
3014 They are not regarded as mundane where food, water and other basics are scarce!
3015
By the draw down of the scarce natural bounty
3016
as the viewpoint varies appreciably from country to country
3017
globally in some instances and regionally in others.
3020
Earth Policy Institute
Plan B 2.0 Book Byte
For Immediate Release
September 19, 2007
661

LEARNING FROM THE PAST http://www.earthpolicy.org/Books/Seg/PB2ch01_ss4.htm
Lester R. Brown
‘Our twenty-first century global civilization is not the first to face the prospect of environmentally induced economic decline. The question is how we will respond. We do have one unique asset at our command--an archeological record that shows us what happened to earlier civilizations that got into environmental trouble and failed to respond.’ Brown describes the failure of the Sumerian, Mayan and Easter Island civilizations due to the falling ability of the environment to support food production and the failure of the people to respond to the declining situation, possibly because the trend was invisible to them before it was too late. He likens the current situation of industrial civilization to what happened to these ancient ones as they started to fail. He notes the dependence of our civilization on fossil fuels but does not note the link that the operation of all civilizations is based on irreversibly using exploitable natural bounty.
3021
the emergence of businesses to handle the recovery from natural and human made disasters is one example. This disaster capitalism is insidious because it makes profits out of others misfortune.
3023 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/21/opinion/21krugman.html
‘Blindly Into the Bubble’ By PAUL KRUGMAN. This article describes how the U.S. federal authorities eased financial regulation to such an extent that it allowed corrupt practices to lead to the mortgage bubble that is now devastating so many home owners and small investors – globally - who have been mislead to believe they have truly earned this largesse.
3025 This will be needed to minimize the inevitable conflict at all levels from countries down to local societies.
662

3027 Planet Ark, November 14, 2007 ’CLIMATE CHANGE UPS WAR RISK IN MANY
STATES – REPORT’ [Rachel's introduction: Global warming will put half the world's countries at risk of conflict or serious political instability, according to a new report. But it's not too late to take action to avert the worst outcomes.] By Peter Apps, LONDON --
Climate change will put half the world's countries at risk of conflict or serious political instability, a report [ http://www.internat ional-alert. org/publications /322.php
] said on
Tuesday, making the world more unstable unless nations and communities consider problems now.
International Alert, a London-based conflict resolution group, identified 46 countries -- home to 2.7 billion people -- where it said the effects of climate change would create a high risk of violent conflict. It identified another 56 states where there was a risk of political instability. "It is about half the countries in the world," International Alert secretary general Dan Smith told Reuters in a telephone interview. "I would expect to see some pretty serious conflicts that are clearly linked to climate change on the international scene by 2020." This article presents a seemingly realistic assessment of how conflicts can develop. It is probably grossly optimist about what alleviation of this predicament can be achieved given past experience and the declining availability of the necessary natural bounty.
3029 Much of this energy is currently expended in selling stuff and other wasteful activities. Why encourage people to fly to the other side of the world to see some of the remaining natural wonders?
3030 ‘Ingredients of Systemic Change: The Environmental Keynesian Alternative’ by
Susan George http://www.globalnetwork4justice.org/story.php?c_id=313
’The only feasible way out of the ecological crisis is a new, environmental Keynesianism, bringing together government, corporations and citizens. The problem is to convince politicians that ecological transformation and environmental practices can pay off politically, argues Susan George.’ Ms George provides a cogent argument for harnessing the power of the community at large to address the ecological problems of society. These are sound proposals even though they do not address the full range of predicaments that
663

society has hoisted on itself by exuberantly using up so much of the available natural bounty capital.
3031
It could well inject a sense of purpose into the void that currently fills the days of so many of the ‘well off’.
3032
It could provide individuals with a real sense of purpose.
3033
Ted Trainer’s
‘Renewable Energy Cannot Sustain a Consumer Society’ contains the
Simpler Way as a sound way to go.
3034 http://www.mudcitypress.com/muddispossessed.html
Mud City Press. A Review of Ursula Le Guin's Science Fiction Classic “The
Dispossessed: An Ambiguous Utopia” This books provides some insight into the type of society that could eventually develop under an Earthly Revolution.
3036
‘Gear Today, Gone Tomorrow’ By Alf Field, Sep 10 2007.www.kitco.com
"Gear Today, Gone Tomorrow" is an old saying in the market place, referring to the propensity for over-leveraged entities to implode. The continuing crisis in the global banking and credit markets has caused the clock to tick past midnight. What was "Today" has become "Yesterday" and what was "Tomorrow" is now "Today".’ This article discusses the growing vulnerability of the financial market. It makes the case that a prolonged depression is quite likely in the near future because this market has grown exponentially in recent years on very weak foundations. It does not mention, however, that there are other factors that accentuate this vulnerability. These include the dependence of industry on transportation as the available fuels decline. Another major factor is the dependence of business on electricity from sources causing climate change.
That is, the declining availability of natural bounty capital is putting increasing pressure on the over-valued financial market. This is another indication of the impact of entropic growth.
3037
Fidel Castro is showing real awareness and leadership in his dotage.
3038 Which is often termed ecocide
3039 And they have powerful leverage to support their objective.
3040 Who would be prepared to tell the voters that they have an declining standard of living to look forward to?
664

3041 Surveys show that the young tend to have better appreciation of the place of society in the operation of the ecosystem. It is ironical that there is this emerging trend where the young can educate their elders.
3042 ‘Wealthy New Yorkers, a demographic which tends to be heavily anti- nuclear, have blood mercury levels three times higher than most
Americans. Most of it seems to come from eating too much tuna sushi.
Oh, I hope you all enjoy your coal poison. Go ahead, close Indian
Point you idiots. Eat all that rich, red, tasty tuna you want. Enjoy your heavy metal poisoning, as thirty years of wrong-headed idiocy comes back to bite your wealthy, pampered, indulgent asses.’
3043
They will still be able to feast, imbibe, drive and fly at the expense of the community.
3045
Regardless of whether they are worthwhile or not.
3046
They are led by financial people who look at one side of the ledger only!
3048
‘Securing The Future – An Oil Company Perspective’
By Tony Hayward. ‘And, perhaps most relevant to this conference, a new spectre has been conjured from all these things. This is the fear of insufficient energy supplies, whether due to the self-interested nationalism of some resource-rich countries, or to oil supplies supposedly passing their peak. For those who succumb to these irrational fears it is all downhill from here and only a sinister Petro-Apocalypse lies ahead. We should remember what our purpose is, and has always been: to ensure the efficient development of the world’s oil and gas resources and, through that, to ensure that the demands of consumers – the people of the world – are met. And we have a moral duty to act in sustainable manner. We must fulfil our purpose in ways that minimize the environmental impact, not only of our own operations, but of the customers who use our products.’ It is hard to know whether this view is rhetoric to please the shareholders or the speaker is so ignorant that he believes his words. Oil and gas are exhaustible resources that have been largely used up. Consumers can demand to their wallets’ content but the time is coming when lack of supply will be the dominant factor. He can talk about moral duty but they are meaningless words when the barrel is emptying rapidly.
3049 http://www.aspousa.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=158&Itemid=76
665

‘A Strategic Perspective on 21st Century Energy Challenges’ by Tom Petrie and Steve
Andrews, 25 June 2007
Notes from a presentation by Tom Petrie to the Institute of International Education in
Denver on June 18, 2007. Reported by Steve
Andrews. (Note: Commentaries do not necessarily represent ASPO-USA’s
positions; they are personal statements and observations by informed
commentators.) Energy will be on of the two or three defining issues we’ll face over the next decade. Since post-1999, we’ve essentially been in a crisis mode. That’s the result of an accumulation of factors.’ This presentation gives a typical myopic view of the developing energy situation. It does not recognize that the fossil fuels are a limited resource that have become seriously depleted, that the globe is over populated by ravaging humans and that their activities have already devastated the natural life support system. The intention is to foster business as usual – with catastrophic consequences.
3050
They lose sight of the fact that if energy substitutes should meet most demands then other predicaments would be exacerbated.
3051
There are cogent reasons to believe that nuclear power will, at best, provide some industrial energy at the expense of many undesirable consequences, for humans as well as the ecosystem.
3052
France aims for 'green revolution' http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/25/2069614.htm
Posted Thu Oct 25, 2007. Green campaigners, scientists and big business hammered out plans to slash France's greenhouse gas emissions at a round-table aimed at launching an environmental revolution in Europe's third-biggest economy.’ These discussions hammered out some sound plans to reduce industrial energy usage, particularly in transportation. It is ironical that the reason for doing this was to reduce
GHG emissions when it will have a significant impact on the importation of increasing scarce fossil fuels. That is, it is a politically sound ecological move whilst having major economic and energy supply benefits.
666

3054 ‘More than any time in history mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness, the other to total extinction. Let us pray that we have the wisdom to choose correctly.’ Woody Allen
3055
Environmental damage is likely to be an increasing element of the eco cost.
3057
http://www.peakoil.org.au/news/index.php?energy_profit.htm
‘The energy dynamics of energy production’ This article presents the results of a realistic modeling of installing a PV system to supply electricity in place of a fossil fuel powered system. It highlights the practical energetic difficulty in meeting energy demand as the availability of fossil fuel based energy declines.
3058 http://www.checkbiotech.org/green_News_Biofuels.aspx?infoId
=16824
Biofuels News, January 31, 2008. Nobel Laureate Steven Chu sees a biofuels revolution.
(Biopact) - Late last year, Professor Steven Chu held a talk at the World Affairs Council of Northern California in which he explains his work on advanced generations of biofuels and how science and technology could make the green fuels part of an entirely new, sustainable energy paradigm.Some of the world's best scientists - amongst them
43 Nobel Laureates - are working in Chu's Lab on bioenergy, renewables and global warming because the energy and climate challenges we face require a Manhattan Project approach, he says.’ This article discusses a seemingly impressive program to tackle the energy and climate change problems with biofuels. There is no mention, however, of the eco cost of replacing the current systems and infrastructure and it implies that the political and social will to undertake such a project can be found. There is no mention of tackling more than the energy and global warming problems. It conveys the impression that its incredible biotechnological revolution will enable the continuance of business as usual with population growth. The proposed initiatives may make a contribution to the inevitable powering down.
3060
Money, know how and mechanisms in conjunction.
3061
Many African countries are finding it extremely difficult to finance the installation of power stations due to the rising price of oil.
3063 Generally called Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF).
667

3064 Shift in the world economy
3065 it is extremely doubtful whether this stability will continue as the ecological forces gain strength.
3067 It is easy to recognize the need but it is hard to visualize the powerful responding until reality hits them hard: they become social outcasts because of their ravaging. The leadership will come from the middle classes. They will embrace the Earthly Revolution.
3068
There are, of course, many rich and powerful who are so involved in their games that they have not the time or the inclination to delve into the problems of the proletariat!
They consider themselves as being immune to such mundane matters as lack of sustenance. They are pests for which rational society has no pesticide.
3069 http://www.truthout.org/docs_03/082103F.shtml
Editor's Note| This story ran in the New York Times in 1944. Draw your own conclusions and compare Henry Wallace's analysis to the situation we find ourselves in today. The Danger of American Fascism
By Henry A. Wallace.The New York Times. This perceptive comment on fascism ends with ‘But if we put our trust in the common sense of common men and "with malice toward none and charity for all" go forward on the great adventure of making political, economic and social democracy a practical reality, we shall not fail.’ It is a typical anthropogenic view and will fail unless ecological eminence is added.
3070 And they cannot look to the media for enlightenment.
3071 With the Internet providing a powerful medium.
3072 "If we do not do the impossible, we shall be faced with the unthinkable." philosopher Murray Bookchin.
3073
It is already very late in most regions, particularly the big cities.
3074 There are signs, mainly on the Internet, of a rapid growth of these smart ones but they are having little impact on the holistic scene as yet.
3075
they are the ones most likely to appreciate what has gone wrong and have the power to do something about it. There are billions, primarily in the undeveloped and developing countries, who have to use all their energy to just survive.
3077
This has got completely out of hand in the U.S. in recent years. The resultant bubble could implode at any time. The frantic manoeuvring by central banks cannot obscure the
668

fact that the ‘wealth’ of countries like the U.S. has little real material basis so must decline. However, it may well foster global panic that will worsen the situation.
3078
This reduces the capability of those doing the least damage.
3079
The smart ones will have embraced sensible precautionary measures but these are likely to be offset by those who embrace their new freedom to consume.
3081
They believe the high standard of living is due to human cleverness and give little credit to Gaia for providing the necessities.
3083
It is mainly the well off in the developed countries that have this delusion about economic growth.
3084
As Lewis Mumford once observed, industrial society transformed all seven deadly sins except sloth “into a positive virtue. Greed, avarice, envy, gluttony, luxury and pride are the driving forces of the new economy.” But this was partly because they have been ignorant of the Dependence on Nature Law. They have been unaware of what they will be bequeathing – hopelessness.
3085
Although studies have shown that this trickle down has not occurred. I fact, the opposite is the reality and the circumstances in Africa provides plenty of evidence. The current revolution in some South American countries is an attempt to foster trickle up that is being resisted by the plutocracy.
3087
Including the health of plants, animals, fish – and humans.
3088 There is still some uncertainty amongst climatologists about the future impact of climate change and what should be done to mitigate its effect and adapt to the consequences. Yet there is a disconcerting amount of evidence that an appreciable climate change is already under way. This controversy seemed to be another example of seeing the trees but not the forest. The latest IPCC report has promoted a wider ranging view of the forest! It is even managing to foster action by business and even some governments!
3089 http://www.slate.com/id/2174376/
‘The New Cigarette’ By Barron H. Lerner, Sept. 24, 2007.’A new book argues that chemical waste is as much to blame for cancer as smoking
669

The Secret History of the War on Cancer. Devra Davis wants chemical waste to become the new cigarette, an object that generates reflexive loathing from most Americans. And the pieces of the puzzle seem to be there: exposure-related cancers, decades of incriminating research, and cover-ups by the chemical industry.’ This is but one example of how the profit incentive of business has managed to foster and hide serious deleterious impact on the operation of the ecosystem.
3090
Including humans
3091
there is now appreciable talk, and argument, about reducing GHG emissions with much buck passing amongst developed and developing countries. Industrialized communities are so addicted to using the concentrated energy provided by the fossil fuels that withdrawal will be slow and have little influence on climate change.
3092
Although it is hard to see many of the major industrialized countries playing their part in a global reduction. They fear that it may desecrate their idol, economic growth.
3093
But that would give many organisms, including homo sapiens, more time to adapt to the changing conditions.
3094
installing large amounts of ‘renewable’ energy systems will not happen overnight and will entail appreciable fossil fuel and other irreplaceable resource usage.
3095
the impact of rising sea level on coastal cities is one major concern. http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/1115/p13s02-wogi.html?s=hns
‘How to fight a rising sea. What the Netherlands has done – and is urgently planning to do – in the face of climate-driven sea-level rise holds important lessons for the rest of the world. ’By Peter N. Spotts | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor from the
November 15, 2007 edition. This article describes how the Dutch have tackled the problem of low lying land over centuries. It is a useful illustration of what can be done in the face of rising sea levels but it does not go in to the eco costs involved, so how feasible these measures are for the developing scenario now there is a much higher population using the reclaimed land. It is a question of whether the co cost is worthwhile as the
670

remaining bounty declines. It is one of those questions that become more difficult as global entropy grows.
3096
The IPCC report suggests that some regions will have to face more droughts whilst others face more floods.
3097 http://news.yahoo.com/s/oneworld/20071017/wl_oneworld/45361542721192656661
‘Economic Costs of Climate Change 'Will Affect Every American'’ by Haider Rizvi,
OneWorld, NEW YORK, Oct 17. Independent economists and environmentalists are warning of dire consequences for the U.S. economy if policy makers fail to take urgent action on climate change. "Climate change will effect every American economically in a significant and dramatic way," said Matthias Ruth, director of the University of
Maryland's Center for Integrative Environmental Research.’ This article comments on the findings of a study into the possible economic costs in the US of climate change. It does not include the impact of reduced energy availability nor does it mention how meeting this challenge will greatly affect the material standard of living.
3098
There is appreciable talk about ‘climate equity’ but that really is a pious hope.
3099
The third installment of the latest IPCC report discusses how technology can contribute to mitigation. It does not, however, discuss the worth of these measures against realistic eco costs. It sticks with the conventional dollar idolatry.
3100
By foul means rather than fair.
3101
This is no help where glaciers are declining, sea level rise damaging or drought devastating.
3102 There are already some enlightened people who believe Australia has a moral responsibility to take South Sea Islanders being displaced by the rising sea level.
3103 It depends on whether the activities are worthwhile.
3105 http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,489508,00.html
June 19, 2007,’CLIMATE CHANGE SHIFTING SEASONS.
Birds and Bees Prematurely Active in Greenland
Not only are global temperatures on the rise, but climate change is
671

shifting the seasons too. Researchers in Greenland have found that
the birds and the bees in the Arctic are active a full two weeks earlier
than they were just a decade ago.
3106 http://earthmeanders.blogspot.com/ ttp://earthmeanders.blogspot.com/http://earthmeander s.blogspot.com/
‘Ecology Is the Radical Science. And the key to the Earth's and your survival’ by Dr.
Glen Barry. This is an articulate statement of the place of society in Gaia. It is consistent with the view expressed in this essay yet misses some of the essential points. It does not recognize that a Body of civilization has been built up largely by using the industrial energy from the depleting fossil fuels. This has been done. We have to live with that no matter how society may now learn to live with what is still available from Gaia. We have a handicap due to the past (and present) delusion about what we can safely do with the natural bounty. Dr Barry focuses on what we should now be doing without looking realistically at what is in place.
3109
Airports, car factories, shopping centers, many roads are a few that will be on the list.
3110 The desert storages for serviceable but not required airliners can expect a boom.
3111 Five star hotels will hardly be assets as tourism and business conferences go into the not affordable basket.
3112 Even the efficient, controlled demolition of those out of place hotels comes at an eco cost.
3113 http://cpd.org.au/sites/cpd/files/u2/JohnQuiggin_The_Risk_Society_CPD_July07.pdf
‘The risk society’ J ohn Quiggin, July 2007.C
entre for Policy Development, Occasional paper number 2 ‘S ocial democracy in an uncertain world’. This is a very sound assessment of risk management in pursuit of social democracy in the rapidly changing global scenario. It covers possible economic melt down and climate change. It does not,
672

however, include the consequences of global over population and the declining availability of energy slaves.
3115 http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/07336/838187-109.stm
Forum: It's time to face peak oil. Pittsburgh's health-care industry must face the fact that the end game has come for its main source of energy, argues DAN BEDNARZ.
December 02, 2007. This article describes how this industry is facing the type of problem that is emerging due to entropic growth.
3116 http://www.orionmagazine.org/index.php/articles/article/314
‘Medicine After Oil. It could be distributed a lot more democratically’ by Daniel
Bednarz. Published in the July/August 2007 issue of Orion magazine. ‘The scale and subtlety of our country’s dependency on oil and natural gas cannot be overstated.
Nowhere is this truer than in our medical system.’ This article provides detail of the medical goods and services that depend on the continuing supply of oil and natural gas. It gives some indication of another predicament, falling health support, to be expected as the scarcity these elements of the natural bounty hits in the U.S.
3120 ‘Sorting Through The Rubble in Post-Bubble America’ http://www.informat ionclearinghouse .info/article194 84.htm
By Mike Whitney, 07/03/08 "ICH" - - - "Market conditions are the worst anyone in this industry can ever remember. I don't think anyone has a recollection of a total disappearance in liquidity... There are billion of dollars worth of assets out there for which there is just no market." Alain Grisay, chief executive officer of London-based
F&C Asset Management Plc; Bloomberg News "Some of the world's top bankers spent nearly a decade designing new rules to help global financial institutions stay out of trouble...Their primary tenet: Banks should be given more freedom to decide for themselves how much risk they should take on, since they are in a better position than regulators to make that call." ("Mortgage Fallout Exposes Holes in New Bank-risk
Rules", Wall Street Journal) It is a classic case of the foxes deciding they should oversee the hen-house.
3121 There is appreciable controversy amongst demographers about what can be done in a humanitarian manner. It is a problem that varies tremendously on a regional basis.
673

3122 Especially in prey regions with less ability to cope with lack of the capability to manage natural resources
3123 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/16/magazine/16wwln-lede-t.html\
‘Our Decrepit Food Factories’ By MICHAEL POLLAN. This article deals to just two problems emerging from monocultures. It ends with ‘From this perspective, the story of
Colony Collapse Disorder and the story of drug-resistant staph are the same story. Both are parables about the precariousness of monocultures. Whenever we try to rearrange natural systems along the lines of a machine or a factory, whether by raising too many pigs in one place or too many almond trees, whatever we may gain in industrial efficiency, we sacrifice in biological resilience. The question is not whether systems this brittle will break down, but when and how, and whether when they do, we’ll be prepared to treat the whole idea of sustainability as something more than a nice word.’ The article fails to note that food monoculture is an established part of the global scene so all the resulting problems (only two are mentioned here) have to be tackled out of what remains of the natural bounty.
3124
By improved knowledge and the availability of many goods and services produced from the fossil fuels and other exhaustible materials.
3125
for example, as urban populations grow there is a demand for land for housing that reduces localized food production, as the demand increases!
3126
Millions of vulnerable people in Asia bearing the brunt of climate crisis, says new report. http://www.oxfam. org/en/news/ 2007/pr071119_ climate_change_ up_in_smoke
’Global warming is set to reverse decades of social and economic progress across Asia, home to more than four billion people or 60 per cent of the world's population, according to a new multi-agency report published today called Up in Smoke: Asia and the Pacific.’
This report identifies the emerging food problems across Asia due to climate change and call for action led by the rich countries. It seems to be based on an impractically increasing Asian population and shows unrealistic belief in the ability of society to
674

undertake effective mitigation and adaptation measures. It does, however, highlight one of the rapidly growing major problems.
3127
It is quite possible that the process will be helped by the reduction in human reproduction capability by popular products!
3128 http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article2714840.ece
‘This planet ain't big enough for the 6,500,000,000. Behind the climate crisis lies a global issue that no one wants to tackle: do we need radical plans to reduce the world's population?’ Chris Rapley sparks the debate.
27 June 2007.
This is a realistic look at this major, but very sensitive, problem. It needs to be tackled by a variety of methods that tend to vary with regions. It notes how population increase has been a big factor in the calamitous current state of affairs. He notes ‘Technology may continue to push back the limits, but 50 per cent of plants and animals are already harvested for our use, creating a huge impact on our partner species and the world's ecosystems. And it is the airborne waste from our energy production that is driving climate change.’ But nowhere does he explicitly refer to the other major problem that we need to face, that the natural bounty is declining. Population is growing and natural bounty is declining. This is the double whammy that cannot continue!
3130 http://www.ipsnews. net/news. asp?idnews= 33268
’POPULATION: Global Food Supply Near the Breaking Point’ by Stephen Leahy
BROOKLIN, Canada, May 17 (IPS) – ‘The world is now eating more food than farmers grow, pushing global grain stocks to their lowest level in 30 years. Rising population, water shortages, climate change, and the growing costs of fossil fuel-based fertilisers point to a calamitous shortfall in the world's grain supplies in the near future, according to Canada's National Farmers Union (NFU). Thirty years ago, the oceans were teeming with fish, but today more people rely on farmers to produce their food than ever before, says Stewart Wells, NFU's president.’ This article describes some of the horrendous food supply problems and some developing mitigation measures. These problems do not
675

receive the attention that is warranted as they do not impinge on Big Business or powerful governments.
3131 http://www.truthout.org/issues_06/082007EA.shtml
‘Scientists Seek New Ways to Feed the World Amid Global Warming’ Agency
France-Presse, 17 August 2007. ‘On an agricultural research station south of Manila a group of scientists are battling against time to breed new varieties of rice as global warming threatens one of the world's major sources of food. According to the
International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) more than half the world's 6.6 billion people depend on rice for nourishment.’ ‘For the IRRI scientists, the challenge is to produce new breeds and innovate crop management techniques to help farmers meet the triple threat of drought, higher temperatures, and soil salinity, along with the new pests and diseases that will crop up as rice is grown in radically new environments.’ This article describes research into means to mitigate the influence of climate change on rice production. It could well make a worthwhile, but small, contribution to easing the food supply predicament. It certainly will not ‘feed the world’.
3132
‘Food prices. The end of cheap food.’ Dec 6th 2007. From The Economist print edition. ’Rising food prices are a threat to many; they also present the world with an enormous opportunity
FOR as long as most people can remember, food has been getting cheaper and farming has been in decline. In 1974-2005 food prices on world markets fell by three-quarters in real terms. Food today is so cheap that the West is battling gluttony even as it scrapes piles of half-eaten leftovers into the bin.’ This article provides a considered view of the current malfeasances in global food production and how developing pressures are likely
676

to alleviate the stress to some extent. It talks about many worthwhile measures but there is no suggestion that it will markedly alleviate hunger amongst the poor.
3133 ‘Intensive crop culture for high population is unsustainable’ by
Peter Salonius. Editor's note: The following essay by soil scientist
Peter Salonius is Part One of his two-part series for Culture Change that bursts the delusion of agriculture's providing for a large human population long-term. If after reading it you have doubt, read the scientific basis for it: the second part in the series, "Unsustainable soil mining, past, present and future." (A version of the second part was published in the May/June, 2007 issue of The Forestry Chronicle.)
The author lives in New Brunswick, and he published in Culture Change in 2003 "Energy tax made easy: Modifying human excess with international non-renewable energy taxation"’ This article describes what agriculture has irreversibly done to soil fertility, so reducing the possibility of continuing to feed a large population to zero.
3135
Population growth coupled with consumerism has been the main factor in the irreversible decimation of the global natural bounty.
3136
‘Climate change debate needs revolution’ By John Aglionby in Jakarta. Published:
September 5 2007. ‘A revolution of society on a scale never witnessed in peacetime is needed if climate change is to be tackled successfully, the head of a major business grouping has warned.’ This seemingly realistic appraisal, however, suffers from two deficiencies. It presumes, unrealistically, that climate change can be tackled. Markedly reducing GHG emissions can mitigate its impact only. Secondly, it presumes that climate change is the only predicament for society to tackle.
3137 ‘ Biofuelled’ Jun 21st 2007.From The Economist print edition
’Grain prices go the way of the oil price’ http://www.economis t.com/finance/ displaystory. cfm?story_ id=9378875
And America is only one of 41 countries where governments are encouraging the use of biofuels to reduce oil consumption.’ This is a manifestation of the effect of global entropic growth, remedial measures for one predicament (shortage of fuel) makes another predicament (shortage of food) worse.
3138
There will be the continuing dilemma of prioritizing the allocation of the remaining natural bounty.
3139
Technofixes rather than the destructive technobubbles.
3140
‘Silicon Valley's "best brains" work on energy’ Wed Apr 4, 2007
677

http://www.reuters.com/article/inDepthNews/idUSN2621301420070404
By Leonard Anderson, MENLO PARK, Calif (Reuters) - Venture capitalists in Silicon
Valley have been searching for the next big thing in high-tech for years, but now many have switched to greener pursuits -- finding technology to help cut global warming.
Although commercial success could take years, venture capitalists are pouring cash into solar power, fuel cells, wind energy, biofuels, new lighting microchips, "smart" power grids, and other innovative energies.’ This is really quite laughable. Silicon Valley’s best brains yet they do not know that there is no such thing as ‘innovative energies’. They have this belief in the ability of technology to circumvent natural laws. They should try to invent a replacement for food! The best they will be able to do is to compete with each other to see which proposal is the most worthwhile, bearing in mind its irrecoverable eco cost.
3141
Reducing the dependence on industrial energy will also help to mitigate climate change.
3142 http://earthmeanders.blogspot.com/
Kyoto's Bali Successor May Be Little More Than a Carbon and
Rainforest Market. Paying nations to be green diverts attention from necessary resolute actions based upon what is right and sufficient to minimize climate change. As long as economic growth is the measure of humanity meeting its aspirations, as long as fossil fuels are burned rather than left in the ground, as long as cutting ancient rainforests for any reason is seen as desirable, there is no hope for the Earth. Some element of policy to maintain a livable biosphere is going to have to be for non-monetary reasons, because it is right and necessary to do so. This implies shared sacrifice at the national and personal levels.
3143
We will want a culture that derives satisfaction and self esteem from making a contribution to the well being of the community and the welfare of what is left of the natural environment. It would have no place for the selfish rich or the directionless entrepreneur or the promoter of consumption. It would, naturally, have a prominent place for those best able to help in providing the basic needs of the ecosystem.
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3144 Ancient innovations for present conventions toward extinction Written by Jan
Lundberg Culture Change Letter #161 - June 9, 2007. In this Letter, Jan Lundberg expounds on what human society has done wrong and, to a degree, why. They are sound views without delving into society’s lack of understanding of the consequences of using up the irreplaceable natural bounty. That understanding, the subject of this essay, would enhance the ability of realists to promote mitigating action. As Lundberg points out, we cannot leave it to our ‘leaders’. It has to be a class action embracing many in all countries. It has to result in a Earthly Revolution.
3147
‘Africa under further menace of Resource Wars’ By Rui Namorado Rosa http://www.sandersresearch.com/index2.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1329
&pop=1&page=0
Jan/07/2008. Africa is eyed by imperialism as being simultaneously very rich (in natural resources) and extremely poor (in people’s living standard), thereby releasing surpluses to be exported to the world market, satisfying the egotism of rich countries and feeding the profits of trans-national corporations, compromising the future industrialization of the continent at the expense of present level of living of Africans.’ This article provides details of Africa’s natural resource richness and how developed nations have preyed on them in the past and are endeavoring to continue to do so. It is an example of entropic growth making it harder to provide for the operations of the Body of civilization. It shows that the predators are striving to maintain their high rate of ravaging natural bounty capital, at the continuing expense of Africans countries.
3149 Washington Post - washingtonpost. com’ A New Green Economics. The Test for the
World In Bali and Beyond’ By Ban Ki-moon, Monday, December 3, 2007. ‘We have read the science. Global warming is real, and we are a prime cause.’ The UN Secretary
General notes the perceived problems stemming from climate change then says they can be tackled with the available technology without seriously affecting economic growth. It is quite unbelievable that a world leader should make such a ridiculous pronouncement. It does not recognize that there are too many people consuming too much of the remaining natural bounty. Nor does it recognize that the best society can now do is reduce the future speed of climate change.
679

3150 ‘Jeremy Leggett's presentation to the ASPO 5 conference in Pisa Italy this last summer, in the next to last slide he provides a graphic representation between carbon needed to force a 2 degrees change and the amounts of carbon in the available resources of oil, gas, and coal The figures are to produce a 2 degree rise in global temperature we would need to put another 400 billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere. There are estimated, I assume on ASPO's figures 700 billion tons of carbon in the remaining oil,
500 in gas, and 3,500 in coal. This view contrasts with Hansen’s. It tends to bring out the uncertainty in the views of climatologists who seem to prefer evolutionary records and model results to the empirical evidence that the ecology is changing rapidly due to climatic effects.’
3151
’FOSSIL
Inter
FUEL
Press
TRAIN
Service,
HEADS
November
INTO
9, 2007
OVERDRIVE’
[Rachel's introduction: Rapidly-increasing use of fossil fuels will accelerate even faster in coming decades, driving oil prices higher and virtually guaranteeing catastrophic climate change in the decades to come, according to the usually-staid International Energy
Agency (IEA).] By Stephen Leahy, BROOKLIN, Canada (IPS) -- Today's skyrocketing fossil fuel use will accelerate far faster in the coming decades, driving oil prices higher and virtually guaranteeing catastrophic climate change in the decades to come, energy experts say. Emissions of greenhouse gases could increase a staggering 57 percent by
2030 if current trends continue, and with the strong growth of coal and oil energy use in
India and China, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported this week - http://www.worldene rgyoutlook. org/.
This article conveys a blatantly false impression. There is plenty of evidence that the cited increase in fossil fuel usage will just not occur for a variety of geophysical , ecological, economic and social reasons. The article does, however, illustrate one of the major problems to be faced by society, obtaining sound assessments of the scale of the predicaments to be faced. There are many apparently authoritative articles that are even more misleading than this one.
3152 http://www.precauti on.org/lib/ 07/prn_climate_ change_demands_ revolution.
070905.htm
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Financial Times (London, UK), September 5, 2007. ‘CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE
NEEDS REVOLUTION’ By John Aglionby in Jakarta. [Rachel's introduction: "How do you change society in a radical way in a democracy so the people you want to vote for you are also going to suffer the consequences of the policies that you put in place. I don't think we've seen that kind of a challenge in societal change happening peacefully. It's
[only] happened in revolutions. "] ‘A revolution of society on a scale never witnessed in peacetime is needed if climate change is to be tackled successfully, the head of a major business grouping has warned. ‘ This article discusses some aspects of the revolution in attitude that is necessary in understanding the impact of one predicament, climate change.
3153 ‘Below is a statement of principles to achieve a Carbon Free and
Nuclear Free energy future for the United States, based on Dr. Arjun
Makhijani’s groundbreaking new book Carbon-Free and Nuclear-Free: A
Roadmap for U.S. Energy Policy - can download the book, get summary in text and slide’ http://www.ieer.org/carbonfree/
This statement of principle presents a seemingly credible basis for U.S. policy to ameliorate energy security and climate change problems. It does not recognise that the best it can do is slow down the rate of usage of the remaining natural bounty capital.
Superficially it is incredibly optimistic about what can be achieved. It is an attempt to make a positive contribution that needs to be subject to careful, objective scrutiny.
3155
The Internet is the prime example of bivalent characteristics of communication. Yet it could also enable the growth of the Earthly Revolution!
3158
‘Vanishing prince delivers a warning’ January 23, 2008 http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2008/01/22/1200764263753.html
ABU DHABI: In the many years in which the Prince of Wales has attended official functions he has never appeared quite like this. At an alternative energy conference in Abu Dhabi he was not exactly there in the flesh. There was no video link, either. Instead, delegates were treated to a full-size, walking, talking, fiddling hologram of his royal highness, who made a brief speech then vanished back into thin air.’ This is, superficially, a major advance in communication that will save on eco costs associated with more conventional methods, often entailing appreciable transportation eco costs.
681

3160 http://www.tni.org/detail_page.phtml?act_id=17820&menu=11c
‘Elites vs. Greens in the Global South’ by Walden Bello, Foreign Policy in Focus, 18 January 2008. This article describes the efforts of environmentalists in moderating the impact of industrialization in Asia to varying degrees and to remedy some of the deleterious effects. It is an example of a positive move to slow down the rate of natural capital depletion at the expense of materialistic standard of living for the well off minority. It shows that people power can have an impact.
3162 ‘An all-consuming greed’ by William Bowles • Friday, July 26 2007
This essay is archived at http://williambowle s.info/ini/ 2007/0607/ ini-0493. html
Bowles realistically looks at how capitalism has fostered the fetish of consumption. He sees the need to transform to ‘ecosocialism’ if society is not to perish. His outlook is sound in the main but he has the typical anthropogenic view that we can control future operations of the ecosystem. He says ‘we can change the way we live or perish’. I believe it is more realistic to say ‘we can change the way we live so as to mitigate to some extent the decline of the ecosystem, so civilization.
3164
Land and to a degree water are essentially non tradable although there are noteworthy exceptions. Countries with a water shortage, like Saudi Arabia, have been overcoming this to some extent by importing wheat rather than growing it. They also use desalination because they have abundant cheap energy coming out of Ghawar and the like for now.
3165
The misuse of money, corruption, is a big factor, as ever, and it is also globalizing.
3166
For example, Japan was able to overcome its lack of natural resources to some extent by dint of innovation adding sufficient value to the goods exported to pay for the raw materials imported and sustain a high material standard of living. This skill leverage enabled them to reduce the eco cost of their operations at the expense of those countries, like Australia, supplying the raw materials.
3167
By way of reduction of reserves of minerals, de-forestation, loss of geo- and biodiversity and other degradations to their ecosystem. Energy will be the main battleground in a new Cold War the U.S. is going to wage on Russia; and the directions of attack have been already identified. Many of the undeveloped countries are going to
682

have to bear the brunt of the climate change instigated by the activities of the large, industrialized countries.
3168
The U.S. has followed in the past century the predation established by European countries. But the U.S. is now falling behind the emerging giants in their adroitness.
3169
Many of those communities that have been preyed upon in the past are finding the capability to repay the predatory communities.
3170
This is a major challenge to go on the agenda of the Earthly Revolution.
3172
This unbalancing has been biased in favor of those countries, communities etc having the leverage of money and know-how. They have been able to feed the Body of their society at the expense of depleting another region of natural resources provided by Gaia.
3173
It is an example of the Freedom Axiom. Millions have decided to migrate because they believed it would improve their prospects. Very few would have migrated to improve how the ecosystem operates!
3174
The congregation of people in centres of power, cities, started millennia ago and has built up very rapidly in the past century as populations have exploded in many regions.
3175 This article
‘On the back of China's workers
Economic lift is tainted by exploitation’ by Jehangir S. Pocha, Sunday, October 15, 2006 http://tinyurl. com/ty4jb illustrates the globalization of societal and ecosystem destruction caused by financial manipulation that benefits a few at the expense of the majority. Cheap labor in China enables Chinese stuff to flood the insatiable U.S. market with throw-away items.
Australia provides a lot of the coal and iron ore the Chinese need to manufacture this stuff. That is, Australia is drawing down on its natural resource capital as a contribution to the U.S. consumption of this stuff. China is using its cheap labor to produce the stuff at the expense of social injustice that looks likely to be costly. And the U.S. consumes the stuff like a spoilt child at a party they do not believe will end.
3176
The Indian economy is booming primarily because it has a large, strongly motivated, well-educated nucleus of young people who are putting their skills to good use in
683

producing financially valuable goods and services 3176 . That is the picture on the affluent side. It is distorted, as ever, by neglecting the overall eco costs. There are too many people for the available natural resources. Many millions do not have access to sufficient quantities of potable water and adequate sewerage. The Ganges River is very polluted.
Consequently, health predicaments are rife. Sustainable traditional farming has given way to agriculture with unintended consequences.
3177
Investment by foreign companies in Chinese manufacturing, which has stimulated urbanization, is just one current, major example.
3178
Producing mainly stuff!
3179
The demise of the Green Revolution is bound to come with the decline in oil and natural gas supply and with the able assistance of climate change.
3180
Who have a mortgage on agricultural land
3181
From the Worldwatch Institute: http://www.worldwatch.org/node/4875
Curitiba's Ex-Mayor Prescribes "Urban Acupuncture" Alana Herro – January 26,
2007,Curitiba, Brazil ’Jaime Lerner, the three-time former mayor of Curitiba, Brazil, a city best known for its innovative approaches to urban planning, is calling for what he terms “urban acupuncture” to bring revitalization and sustainability to the world’s metropolitan areas.’ This is an example of a really progressive approach to mitigating some of the predicaments of urbanization.
3182 But the powerful will remain in the cities and ensure their needs and wants are satisfied.
3183 http://environment.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,2078954,00.html
‘Climate change to force mass migration · 1bn likely to be displaced by 2050, says report
· Environmental factors will exacerbate existing crisis’ by John Vidal, environment editor, Monday May 14, 2007 The Guardian ‘A billion people - one in seven people on
Earth today - could be forced to leave their homes over the next 50 years as the effects of climate change worsen an already serious migration crisis, a new report from Christian
684

Aid predicts.’ This alarming prediction should be viewed in context. There are a number of other factors that could reduce the global population.
3185
The consequences of the ‘attractiveness principle’ have been confirmed by a number of studies. It is an example of a negative feedback mechanism (NFM) that tends to stop processes getting out of control. It is a regulating or stabilizing mechanism.
3186
The legal and illegal emigration of Mexicans to the U.S. providing cheap labor is one prominent example but there are many more. Europe is seeing an influx of Africans, mostly unskilled and being manipulated by unscrupulous business people. Western
Europe is having an influx of Eastern Europeans, many of them skilled so they weaken the countries that they come from.
3187 http://www.energybulletin.net/28128.html
Mexico and the first peak oil mass migration. More than 30 years ago French writer Jean
Raspail warned in his anti-immigration novel The Camp of the Saints of a coming deluge of the world's poor onto European soil. His ghoulish vision of an immigrant invasion frightened some and angered many others who called it racist when the book appeared in
1973. Today, climate scientists are warning of mass migrations related to the effects of global warming. In addition, the possibility of the first peak oil driven mass migration--in this case out of Mexico and into the United States--is starting to get some attention as well.
3188 Published on Friday, October 20, 2006 by the lndependent/UK ‘Climate Change 'Will
Cause Refugee Crisis'’ by Michael McCarthy. Mass movements of people across the world are likely to be one of the most dramatic effects of climate change in the coming century, a study suggests. The 2007 IPCC report supports this assertion because the poorer countries, in the tropics, are most likely to suffer the most.
3189 They believe they have a right to an (unsustainable) high standard of living
3190
climate change and high fuel prices have little impact on their life style
3192 So, by implication, the largest contributor to global entropic growth. Future generations will deride the Americans for their leadership down the destruction trail.
685

3193 Capitalism continues to create new service industries to absorb the surplus personal energy resulting from the availability of cheap industrial energy. This enables these personnel to draw down more of the natural bounty. Capitalism is, despite the plaudits of many, including political leaders, is unknowingly speeding up the demise of civilization.
3194
We are looking at functional, not financial, wealth here. That comprises the infrastructure that enables the operation of society together with the goods they have acquired. It includes the knowledge and skills that have been acquired over time as they provide a powerful catalyst in the use of natural capital.
3195
There is reason to believe real material wealth of the majority has been declining for decades. The rich, however, have got richer at an obscene rate.
3196
It has used its leverage weapons, particularly money, indiscriminately.
3197
Peak oil for the U.S. occurred about 1970.
3198
It contributed greatly to the birth of carmania and the love affair is still blossoming.
3199
Thereby making a major contribution to the escalating trade deficit and its dependence on alien producers. This is a major factor in the drive for other sources of industrial energy to ensure the illusory ‘energy independence’.
3200 So called ‘oil nationalism’. This is enabling them to build up their ‘sovereign wealth funds’ as the oil price zooms.
3201 there is good reason to believe the local supply has peaked already and importation is limited by physical constraints. Attempts are being made to bolster imports in LNG tankers but there is appreciable global competition.
3202
As Kunstler notes ‘Compounding the disaster is the unfortunate fact that the manic construction of ever more futureless suburbs (a.k.a. the "housing bubble") has insidiously replaced manufacturing as the basis of our economy.’
3203
This has been worthwhile whilst transportation costs were so unrealistic from the ecological perspective
3204
‘Nuking the Economy’ by PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS. Over the past five years the
US economy experienced a net job loss in goods producing activities. The entire job growth was in service-providing activities-- primarily credit intermediation, health care
686

and social assistance, waiters, waitresses and bartenders, and state and local government.
US manufacturing lost 2.9 million jobs, almost 17% of the manufacturing work force.
The wipeout is across the board. Not a single manufacturing payroll classification created a single new job.
3205
They lead the field in financial speculation which is growing exponentially globally.
3206
The following is James Howard Kunstler's recent speech to the Commonwealth Club of California. ‘We Must Imagine a Future Without Cars’ April 7, 2007 ‘Two years ago in my book The Long Emergency I wrote that our nation was sleepwalking into an era of unprecedented hardship and disorder -- largely due to the end of reliably cheap and abundant oil.’ This article repeats Kunstler’s message of the build up of the American dream of McMansions in suburbia driven by the love affair with the car and the consequences – the nightmare - as oil supply goes into decline. The situation is dire and he only considers the oil predicament!
3207
This diversion of societal energy from needs to wants is indicative of a disease wasting the Body. That is, its entropic growth.
3208 The tendency to have more working in providing services intrinsically makes better use of the natural resources than producing stuff. It has been, however, more than offset by the workers buying more imported stuff to sate a consumption frenzy.
3209 The internal power struggle between the neocons and their opponents is weakening the ability of the U.S. to confront what is happening globally. Putin and Hu Jintao must be fascinated at how those Americans are helping their plans.
3210 Their invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq have largely been financed by borrowings from other countries but they have not been worthwhile uses of natural capital. They have speeded up the senescence of civilization for no useful purpose – other than lining the pockets of a few rich and providing income for many who could well have done more worthwhile jobs.
3211
HON. RON PAUL OF TEXAS,Before the U.S. House of Representatives,
February 15, 2006.
‘The End of Dollar Hegemony’ http://www.house. gov/paul/ congrec/congrec2 006/cr021506. htm < http://www.house. gov/paul/ congrec/congrec2 006/cr021506. htm >
’A hundred years ago it was called "dollar diplomacy." After World War II, and especially after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989, that policy evolved into "dollar
687

hegemony." But after all these many years of great success, our dollar dominance is coming to an end.’ This article spells out the dire situation the U.S. economy is in because of the false value of the USD is ending. The countries supporting this false value are getting out. There is no mention of the fact that its wealth was originally built up by using the natural resources that are now scarce.
3212 http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=57&ItemID=12705
‘What's Possible in the Military Sector? Greater than 100% Reduction in Greenhouse
Gases’ by Don Fitz. April 30, 2007. ‘The military is the only sector of the economy where emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) can be reduced by greater than 100%. This is because militarism is the only type of activity whose primary purpose is destruction.’
This article raises the question as to why there is no discussion of the impact of military operations when taking about reducing GHG emissions. This is a very pertinent point as the arguments and figures provided indicate how profoundly military operations wastefully use up natural bounty and necessitate further expenditure for reconstruction. It is wrong that militarism is the only destructive activity. Most industrial activities are destructive in that they use up natural bounty capital. But militarism is clearly the least worthwhile of these activities.
3213
January 10, 2007.’The Profits of Escalation: Why the US is Not Leaving Iraq’ by
Ismael
Hossein-Zadeh gives details of the US administration policy and how it has benefited Big
Business at the expense of just about everyone else, inside and outside the U.S. They are very adept at using EC&PP to increase their parasiticy.
3214 The astonishing growth in private armies shows the influence of powerful forces to make a buck, regardless of the consequences for others.
3215 http://www.just-international.org/article.cfm?newsid=20002009
‘Wall Street drools over prospect of capturing Iraq oil wealth’
by Patrick Martin The
Iraqi cabinet's adoption last week of a law creating the legal framework for turning over the country's oil wealth to American corporations has touched off a chorus of salutes
688

from the Bush administration, Congressional Democrats and the corporate-controlled
American media. Its bumbling attempts in the Middle East are losing it a lot of friends and empowering its many enemies as explained by *Noam Chomsky
Friday March 9, 2007, The Guardian < http://www.guardian .co.uk
>*
3216
get up and go coupled with know how produced an imposing infrastructure and capability. The order of the Body was high.
3217 From NY Times editorial page, March 11, 2008.Op-Ed Columnist. ‘Sharing the
Pain’ By BOB HERBERT. Now that the economic crunch is reaching those near the top of the pyramid, there is finally a sense that the U.S. is facing a real crisis. No one will tackle the crucial issue of employment in a serious way. The cornerstone of a middle-class life in
America (and that means the cornerstone of the American dream) is a good job. The
American dream is on life support because men and women by the millions who want very much to work
— who still have in their heads the ideal of a thriving family in a nice home with maybe a picket fence — are unable to find a decent job.
3218 http://adbusters.org/the_magazine/69/First_World_Fascismo.html
‘First World Fascismo. This is fascination fascism, the fascism of the mirror. Quite apart from the historical regimes whose trappings we also freely borrow, this is a novel fascism of the First World’s own making. We stare. We study. We obsess. We are transfixed by this idealized image, gazing into the brilliant depths of the healthiest, wealthiest, most energetic, most handsome, most fulfilled, most entertained, most charismatic, most esteemed, yet ultimately most depraved image of ourselves.’ This is a realistic comment on the American life-style that gives some indication of how difficult cultural change to power down will be for the majority of Americans.
3219
One of the farmers who organized the Pennsylvania Association for Sustainable
Agriculture's annual meeting put it nicely: "The ethanol craze means that we're going to burn up the Midwest's last six inches of topsoil in our gas-tanks." Ethanol vehicles pose health risks, study claims :’Ethanol is widely touted as a clean, eco-friendly fuel. But new research challenges that view. http://www.world-science.net/othernews/070418_ethanol.htm
689

this article on the health hazards of ethanol adds weight against its widespread adoption as a low WoEC fuel to service carmania..
3220
There are mandatory requirements but the perceived drive for energy security is increasing uncertainty in the balance between food and fuel.
3221
Which is causing real concern in the south west, in particular.
3222
China in particular where cheap labor enables them to produce cheap goods with the help of importation of resources.
3223
That is a generalization for the country. There are many communities in the U.S. that, for a variety of reasons, are not vulnerable. The rich will continue to have their advantage. The urban poor will doubtless suffer the most and their numbers have increased rapidly in recent years.
3224
‘Iran is serious about energy independence. While an adversary reduces vulnerability,
U.S. does the opposite.’ GAL LUFT AND ANNE KORIN, Philadelphia Inquirer. And now one of our ERG members has let us know of the currently ongoing U.S. National
Petroleum Council Global Oil and Gas Study. Read it yourself at: http://www.npc. org/NPC_pres- v31-120506. pdf
Presumes economic growth is desirable, US policy for stability and prosperity. Presumes technology is major influence. In other words, it is not seriously tackling the ‘oil addiction’. In his State of the Union address last month, President Bush announced his intention to expand the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as a way to strengthen
America's energy security. The 20-year effort to increase the emergency stockpile from its current capacity, 691 million barrels, to 1.5 billion barrels would provide enough oil to compensate for a loss of nearly 100 days of net oil imports, almost double today's reserve.’ It can be argued that this action is intended to impress rather than really tackle the predicament by taxing gasoline use.
3225
Natural gas is not as transportable as oil so its increasing scarcity is most likely to hit home heating drastically.
3226
This bubble could burst at any time and trigger the Greatest Depression that would expand globally rapidly.
690

3227 Illegal cheap labor from Mexico is a major problem.
3228
Which has unfortunately declined appreciably in recent decades
3229
‘THE PROPHET OF GARBAGE’By Michael Behar, Popular Science,March 2007 describes Startech's 'Plasma-Gasification Plant' This may prove to be a decided acquisition for reducing waste and providing industrial energy. However, assessment of such proposals will have to be on sounder grounds than is current practice.
3230 http://www.csmonito r.com/2007/ 0417/p01s02- wogi.html
Trade-off looms for arid US regions: water or power? Water consumed by electric utilities could account for up to 60 percent of all nonfarm water used in the US by
2030.By Peter N. Spotts | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor.Albuquerque,
N.M. The drive to build more power plants for a growing nation – as well as the push to use biofuels – is running smack into the limits of a fundamental resource: water. Already, a power plant uses three times as much water to provide electricity to the average household than the household itself uses through showers, toilets, and the tap. The total water consumed by electric utilities accounts for 20 percent of all the nonfarm water consumed in the United States. By 2030, utilities could account for up to 60 percent of the nonfarm water, because they use water for cooling and to scrub pollutants.
3231 The credit bubble has enabled a fallacious belief (by them) in the health of U.S. society. The loss of manufacturing jobs has now being exacerbated by the declining food production. The dependence on housing construction did not help as its decline as food and fuel prices increase could be the start of a recession that will not go away.
3232 There are signs that most of those making the decisions about the future demand for electricity believe economic growth will continue unabated. It could be that these signs emanate from sources that are unaware of developing the energy crisis due to peak gas, greenhouse gas emissions, aging power network etc. It is quite possible that the smart operators are making covert moves to a sound position. This type of situation is consistent with the entropic growth, the trend towards more disorder in the industry.
3233
‘The most arrant case of collective cluelessness now on view is our failure to even begin a public discussion about fixing the U.S. passenger railroad system, which has
691

become so decrepit that the Bulgarians would be ashamed of it. It's the one thing we could do right away that would have a substantial impact on our oil use. The infrastructure is still out there, rusting in the rain, waiting to be fixed. The restoration of it would employ hundreds of thousands of Americans at all levels of meaningful work. The fact that we are hardly even talking about it—at any point along the political spectrum, left, right, or center—shows how fundamentally un-serious we are.’
3234
there are many studies that detail what is possible, given the inclination of the powerful and the masses to become reasonable. Other studies have come to the conclusion that the cultural change required will not occur voluntarily. The bubble will need to burst, painfully.
3235
that is a theoretical possibility but most unlikely given the urgings of the powerful and the duplicity of the masses. They have been conditioned to believe in the ‘American
Dream’ (of raping the ecosystem).
3236
‘Clueless in America: Feeding the Tape Worms of Desire’ by Charles Sullivan http://www.informat ionclearinghouse .info/article157 60.htm
Most Americans somehow believe that we are an exceptional people--God's chosen few.
It would not be the first time in history this has occurred. The world is our oyster and it is our's to use as we see fit, even if it does not belong to us. To the physically strongest and morally depraved, to the wealthiest, go the spoils.
3237 http://www.kunstler .com/mags_ diary21.html
June 4, 2007 ‘No Confidence? ‘ Kunstler looks realistically at the emerging signs of the decline of the U.S. that the political leaders are not facing.
3238
There have been increases in the subsidies on fossil fuels, especially oil and gas, and reductions of taxation of the rich. These moves suggest a group suicidal fetish.
3239 ‘Trade-off looms for arid US regions: water or power? By Peter N. Spotts, Christian
Science Monitor, April 17, 2007 http://www.csmonito r.com/2007/ 0417/p01s02- wogi.html
692

Albuquerque, N.M. - The drive to build more power plants for a growing nation – as well as the push to use biofuels – is running smack into the limits of a fundamental resource: water.’ This article details the developing battle between water and electricity in regions of the U.S. and notes the same problem is developing in other regions around the globe.
Growth and climate change are expected to exacerbate the problem. It is an example of the difficulties that will continue to emerge as global entropy grows.
3240 http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chioverheated2oct18,0,3540461.st
ory
‘In heart of Texas, drumbeat for green. Austin attacks the problems of climate change -- right at home’ By Howard Witt | Tribune senior correspondent, September 28, 2007.
AUSTIN, Texas — This environmentally conscious city is already home to the headquarters of the Whole Foods organic grocery store chain, a new City Hall built mostly with recycled materials and a municipal electric utility that features solar cells on the roof of its parking lot.’ This article details how Austin is amongst the front runners in lessening its contribution to climate change. Many American cities have programs but they do not seriously reduce GHG emissions.
3241
Nature 447, 130 (10 May 2007) .Party of One. Misspent energy. By David Goldston
US politicians are pushing to create an advanced research agency to tackle the energy challenges the nation faces. David Goldston explores why the current proposition may be ill-prepared for the task. The idea of establishing the Advanced Research Projects
Agency –
Energy (ARPA-E) is a case in point. The proposal to create a new entity to support pathbreaking energy research and development, modelled on the Defense Advanced
Research Projects Agency (DARPA), originated in about seven pages of the National
Academy of Sciences' massive report on competitiveness, Rising Above the Gathering Storm (see Nature 438,
129; doi:10.1038/ 438129a 2005), issued in the autumn of 2005.’ This article questions the rationale behind the proposal to establish ARPA-E. This essay puts forward a simple
693

rationale. The U.S. economy is crucially dependent on using exhaustible sources of industrial energy with some very deleterious consequences. There is an urgent need to develop and implement those sources of industrial energy that are really worthwhile. This would contribute to easing the inexorable power down.
3242 http://newstandardnews.net/content/index.cfm/items/4735
‘Greenwashing Fears Raised by Berkeley-BP Initiative’ by Michelle Chen
‘The 10-year initiative, which also involves Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, will establish an institute that would host research by both university and industry personnel on "economically viable solutions to global energy challenges."’ This proposed program may possibly lead to worthwhile remedial technology. However, the approach fosters the delusion that solutions are possible. It does not encourage looking at the situation realistically.
3243
Despite its influence on climate change
3244
despite its influence on food production
3245
The rapidly growing poor have no such delusion but they also have no voice. They cannot contribute to the campaign funds of the candidates.
3246 http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~odland/Odland_PeakOilMgt_Dissertation.pdf
"Strategic Choices for Managing the Transition from Peak Oil to a
Reduced Petroleum Society." By Sarah K Odland is a credible looking academic dissertation only because it does not address the holistic predicament.
3247 ‘A WARNING FROM THE GARDEN’. By Thomas L. Friedman, New York Times
January 19, 2007. Friedman is advocating a Green New Deal. This trend could well develop quite rapidly but is most unlikely to mitigate the decline appreciably without a remarkable cultural change.
3248
There is lack of widespread debate in the U.S. This is probably due to unawareness of what is happening globally due to americacentricity, assisted by media connivance.
3249 http://fora.tv/fora/fora_player.php?c=1566&u=0&t=270099&s=
694

America's Budget Crisis with discussants: David M. Walker, Comptroller General of the
U.S.; Isabel V. Sawhill, Senior Fellow, Economic Studies, Brookings Institution; Alison
Acosta Fraser, Director, Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies, The
Heritage Foundation; Robert L. Bixby, Executive Director, the Concord Coalition; Tom
Campbell (moderator), Dean, Haas School of Business, U.C. Berkeley.
Can the United States still make tradeoffs between spending on entitlements, wars and infrastructure, or is our fiscal house out of control? The Fiscal Wake-Up Tour is a public engagement initiative addressing the problems of the nation's fiscal policy. Panelists with diverse perspectives discuss why our current fiscal policy is unsustainable and what we can do to change it - The Commonwealth Club of California.’ This discussion highlights the very real financial problems facing America with the current budget deficit and the looming increase due to the coming retirement of the baby boomers. The speakers elaborated on the fiscal problems and the challenge of doing something positive about them. There was no mention of the fact that America is addicted to wastefully using irreplaceable natural resources. The speakers are, like so many globally, under the usufruct delusion. They believe intangible money can support the tangible operation of
America. They should try eating a dollar!
3250 As George Monbiot has noted, ’Global supplies of political courage appear, unfortunately, to have peaked some time ago.’
3251 http://www.vanityfair.com/services/referral?messageKey=8f9ece838fec439d316c343
7264485c3
‘The Economic Consequences of Mr. Bush’ by Joseph E. Stiglitz December 2007. ‘The next president will have to deal with yet another crippling legacy of George W. Bush: the economy. A Nobel laureate, Joseph E. Stiglitz, sees a generation-long struggle to recoup.’
This is an incisive comment on the deterioration of the U.S. economy during Bush’s term in office. It gives some hope for a recovery in the future – with mentioning the developing problems with that immutable duality – the declining availability of the fossil fuels to provide the necessary energy and the increasing impact of climate change.
695

3252 http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/2007/02/the_big_chill.html
T
HE BIG CHILL, By James Howard Kunstler: "The truth is, we will never be energy independent as long as we remain a car-fixated society. It's that simple. If we can't let go of the sunk costs associated with Happy Motoring, we're probably not going to make it very far into the future, either as a nation or a viable economy or as an orderly society. By sunk costs I mean our previous investments in car-oriented infrastructure." This makes a lot of sense – in relation to one problem facing U.S. society. He does not address the other issues like too many people, consuming too much, the gluttony attitude of the people in general as well as that of the powerful together with what damage has already been done to the ecosystem by the massive construction of cities and their utilities. http://www.energyjustice.net/solutions/ provides suggestions for how the industrial energy requirements can be met by using renewables and reducing energy demand. Only time will establish whether these improvements can be more than partially realized in a worthwhile manner.
3253
Kotkin, Special for the republic, Jan. 21, 2007 ’In the opening decades of the 21st century, virtually all of America's most critical problems - political, environmental and economic - will be wrapped up within the issue of energy. Energy fuels our deadliest enemies, threatens our environment, and poses a direct challenge to our long-term economic viability.’ This article argues for a North American Energy Community
(NAEC). By focusing on this issue rather than the holistic malaise it is most likely to hinder the power down, that it does not recognize!
3254
Can We End the American Empire Before It Ends Us? by Chalmers Johnson,
Tomdispatch.com AlterNet (May 17 2007) ’In politics, as in medicine, a cure based on a false diagnosis is almost always worthless, often worsening the condition that is supposed to be healed. The United States, today, suffers from a plethora of public ills. Most of them can be traced to the militarism and imperialism that have led to the near-collapse of our Constitutional system of checks and balances. Unfortunately, none of the remedies proposed so far by American politicians or analysts addresses the root causes of the problem.’ This article articulates the perceived problems in the current
696

American olitical/business/military/social scene. It discusses the revolution that is necessary for the U.S. to become again a world leader of true democracy and a source of pride to its people.’ There is, however, no mention of the fact that it owes much of its current material standard of living to irrepayable devastation of the global ecosystem. An essential element of the necessary revolution will be a powering down of the consumption of the remaining natural bounty.
3255
There are many countries who believe they have just as much right to some of the remaining oil! This is especially so for those that have the oil resources, like Russia, the
Gulf States and Venezuela. They see no reason why the Americans should continue to guzzle their valuable resource on credit.
3256
The frenzy to produce ethanol is eroding the food production capability just as climate change is starting to chime in!
3257
the days of the US$ as the global reserve currency seem to be numbered as the emerging powers judiciously switch their investments.
3258 http://www.csmonito r.com/2008/ 0225/p02s01- usec.html
‘The state of Arizona and all its cities and towns are confronting huge revenue shortages this year, mainly because sales-tax revenues are far below projected levels. In fact, Arizona has the dubious distinction – along with California, Nevada, and Florida – of leading the country in the current economic slide.’ This article details the financial problems emerging in these boom states stemming largely from the housing bust. There is no mention here, however, as to how they are going to manage the emerging ecological constraints, like water shortage, with their depleting financial resources. They are really going to have to face up to this double whammy.
3260 The crumbling infrastructure is calling desperately for the expenditure of natural capital for maintenance and replacement purposes whilst carmania and flymania combine with consumptionism to use up this scarce natural resource.
3261 By trickling up through the population
3262 many families walking away from their homes due to the mortgage crisis is one major emerging sign of the devastating economic forces.
3263 by trickling down
3264 this has both global and localized impact.
3266
There are emerging doubts about Russia’s gas reserves while Central Asian countries are looking for other outlets rather than continue to provide Russia with cheap gas.
3267
Frontline, a Hindu magazine had the article ‘
Energy war’ by
VLADIMIR
RADYUHIN in Moscow. ‘Energy will be the main battleground in a new Cold War the
697

U.S. is going to wage on Russia; and the directions of attack have been already identified.’ This article notes the advantages that Russia is using to successfully weaken the energy security of the Western countries.
3268
On Thursday, Oct. 12, France and Germany urged Russia to ratify an international energy charter that would provide the European Union with greater security for its industrial energy supplies. The charter, drafted in 1991 by the EU’s executive commission, aims to improve industrial energy cooperation between the EU and Russia.
Russia has signed the pact in 1994, but is yet to ratify it. The charter regulates transit and investment in the energy sector and would allow for market competition between foreign and independent companies. Ratification would end the monopoly of Russia’s state-run gas giant Gazprom. This is almost laughable. They talk about industrial energy security when they are referring to an exhaustible natural resource. The objective is to enhance
EU right to consume Russia’s oil and natural gas whilst it is still available.
3269 Russia's "Dutch Disease" (the deindustrialization of a nation's economy that occurs when the discovery of a natural resource raises the value of that nation's currency, making manufactured goods less competitive with other nations, increasing imports and decreasing exports) is rapidly acquiring its own, country-specific features. This means
Russia has a greater bounty than previously thought. This improves its future prospects so long as the gains are not offset by increasing consumption. The rich oligarty are setting a dangerous precedence in that regard.
3270 ‘ Russia, pumped’ by SHAWN MCCARTHY From Saturday's Globe and Mail provides a comprehensive view of the impact of Putin’s authoritarian promotion of a more balanced Russian economy. It gives every indication that Russia is using its energy endowments sensibly for the good of the populace. However, there are other articles that provide evidence that the emergent oligarty are fostering their flagrant lifestyle at the expense of the masses.
3271 It is ironical that capitalism promotes the growth of consumption of irreplaceable natural bounty capital!
3272 With dire future consequences.
698

3273 http://www.informat ionclearinghouse .info/article188 26.htm
‘Henry Thoreau and the Patrons of Virtue’By Charles Sullivan. This essay provides a critical look at capitalism and how it benefits the selfish few at the expense of the masses and the ecosystem and the future. It does not, however, recognize that the material gains are transitory and acquired at the expense of irreversible decimation of natural bounty.
Inclusion of the implications of the Dependence on Nature Law would significantly bolster the case against capitalism.
3275
‘Big trouble in dirty China’ is an atticle by Elizabeth Economy in the Melbourne
‘The Sunday Age’ of May 20,2007 dealing with the difficulty China has with coming to terms with the problems, including climate change, that are going hand in glove with its rapid economic growth. It seems likely that the regional entropic growth has peaked so mitigation of these problems will simply get rapidly more difficult.
3276
Many of them are old and not very efficient.
3277
The government is removing subsidies and even taxing those stations that have significant sulfur emissions. It is in advance of the U.S. in its attempts to reduce emissions despite the rapidly growing economy. But the magnitude of the problem must be very worrisome to the central government.
3278
China needs at least 70 Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) to be self-sufficient in transporting its own crude oil, far more than it now controls, the head of the country's top shipping group said on Thursday.
3279
From the NY Times, April 6, 2007. ‘To Fortify China, Soybean Harvest Grows in
Brazil ‘
By ALEXEI BARRIONUEVO
RONDONÃ"POLIS, Brazil " For more than 2,000 years, the Chinese have turned soybeans into tofu, a staple of the country’s diet. But as its economy grows, so does
China’s appetite for pork, poultry and beef, which require higher volumes of soybeans as animal feed. Plagued by scarce water supplies, China is turning to a new trading partner
699

15,000 miles away " Brazil " to supply more protein-packed beans essential to a richer diet.
3280
These plans show they share the common delusion that copious supplies of industrial energy are inherently possible. They clearly do not understand the Second Law.
3281
In Spring 2006 the government of China proposed a Draft Labour Contract Law and invited public comment for a period of 30 days. The American and European Union
Chambers of Commerce and the US-China Business Council - representing nearly every significant US- and EU-based investor in China - each responded with a lengthy catalog of objections. The 30 days have long since lapsed, but that hasn't deterred the associations and their individual members from aggressively lobbying to kill the proposed legislation. In some cases, corporate lobbying has been accompanied by threats to pull out of China should the draft become law. As the American Chamber of
Commerce in Shanghai wrote in its public commentary on the law, the legislation would
"negatively impact the PRC's competitiveness and appeal as a destination for foreign investment." Some individual corporations have reportedly been blunter and more direct.
These actions by foreign companies are bound to exacerbate the rising social discontent amongst the many million Chinese workers.
3282 BEIJING, June 3 (Xinhua) – ‘The Chinese government has reiterated its intention to meet strict energy efficiency and pollutant reduction targets, which it failed last year, in an official work plan published here Sunday.The General Work Plan for Energy
Conservation and Pollutant Discharge Reduction shows that China will stick to the original plan of energy saving as well as reducing major pollutant discharges by 10 percent.’ The government does at least recognize the need for more efficient processes although this is hard to achieve as the economy grows so rapidly.
3283 Western companies see constructing roads and railways as a good investment of their money and expertise. It does not concern them that this construction is contributing to more rapid depreciation of global natural capital. It should really be a question of whether the WoEC is warranted in the circumstances.
3284 http://news. independent. co.uk/world/ asia/article3143 287.ece
‘The gathering sandstorm: Encroaching desert, missing water’ By Clifford Coonan
Independent. 09 November 2007. China is losing a million acres a year to desertification.
700

In Dunhuang, a former Silk Road oasis in the Gobi, the resulting water shortage has become critical.
3285 http://www.asiawateronline.com/news_show.php?language=english&n_id=1665
‘Biofuel craze is water madness. If water were a globally traded commodity, with unmet demand in China and India reflected in its price, the world might shed its newfound craze for biofuels.’ This article gives details of the water supply crisis in China and measures being undertaken by the government to ease the predicament. China has one fifth the water per capita of the US.
3286
Mexico City and Beijing are just two cities where the situation is extremely bad. But the Chinese government has implemented drastic measures to clean up the air for the
Olympic Games, with very limited success.
3287 http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Coasts_Of_China_Devastated_By_Pollution_And_Ero sion_999.html
Coasts Of China Devastated By Pollution And Erosion. Much of China is an ecological disaster zone due to hundreds of years of population pressures topped off by the current economic boom, which has spewed massive industrial pollution into the environment.
3288
Algae choking another major Chinese lake http://tinyurl.com/2pl4j3
A massive algae bloom has spread out over another of China's big lakes, despite hundreds of millions of dollars being spent on years of clean up efforts. "More than 70 percent of
China's waterways and 90 percent of its underground water are contaminated by pollution
..."
3289 The consuming countries are thereby transferring the responsibility for these contributions to climate change to China.
3290
This video provides some ironic commentary:
701

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/08/26/world/asia/choking_on_growth.html# story3
Two-thirds through the video, Joseph Kahn, Beijing Bureau Chief for the New York Times, says, "Economic growth is as close to China comes as having a state religion. One of the prices of the Deng Xao
Ping era is that the party has in some ways really become fixated on economic growth."
3291
‘Power, corruption and lies’ http://www.guardian.co.uk/china/story/0,,1984960,00.html
To the west, China is a waking economic giant, poised to dominate the world. But, argues
Will Hutton in this extract from his new book, we have consistently exaggerated and misunderstood the threat - and the consequences could be grave. This extract provides some insight into the worrying nature of the authoritarian structure of Chinese business.
3292
Climate change is expected to seriously exacerbate its food production problems
3293 http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,345694,00.html
SPIEGEL INTERVIEW WITH CHINA'S DEPUTY MINISTER OF THE
ENVIRONMENT
"The Chinese Miracle Will End Soon" The world has been dazzled in recent years by the economic strides being made by China. But it has come at a huge cost to the country's environment. Pollution is a serious and costly problem. Pan Yue of the ministry of the environment says these problems will soon overwhelm the country and will create millions of "environmental refugees." Pan provides a realistic assessment of the environmental and social problems stemming from China’s economic growth. It is synonymous with peak entropic growth and the consequent problem of coping with major predicaments with a depleted natural bounty.
3294 http://www.renewableenergyaccess.com/rea/news/infocus/story?id=49057
702

June 21, 2007, China Plans for 30% Renewable Energy by 2050. In the June 2007 issue of the China Renewable Energy and Sustainable Development Report from Lou
Schwartz, recent developments in renewable energies in China offer insight into that country's burgeoning challenges between population, energy and the environment.
"Between 2005 and 2030, China will account for 23% of the world's investment in power, spending $1.2 trillion U.S.D. in that period."-- China Renewable Energy and
Sustainable Development Report, June 2007. The report cites that the "Persistent rural poverty in China and periodic power shortages all have impressed upon Beijing that renewable energy must be a large part of China's economy if China is to both complete its economic transformation and achieve energy security."
3295 ‘The Last Empire: China's Pollution Problem Goes Global
Can the world survive China's headlong rush to emulate the American way of life?’ by Jacques Leslie, December 10 , 2007 http://www.motherjo nes.com/cgi- bin/print_ article.pl?
url= http://www.motherjo nes.com/news/ feature/2008/ 01/the-last- empire.html
".... China has also become a ravenous consumer. Its appetite for raw materials drives up international commodity prices and shipping rates while its middle class, projected to jump from fewer than 100 million people now to 700 million by 2020, is learning the gratifications of consumerism. China is by a wide margin the leading importer of a cornucopia of commodities, including iron ore, steel, copper, tin, zinc, aluminum, and nickel. It is the world's biggest consumer of coal, refrigerators, grain, cell phones, fertilizer, and television sets. It not only leads the world in coal consumption, with 2.5 billion tons in
2006, but uses more than the next three highest-ranked nations—the
United States, Russia, and India—combined. China uses half the world's steel and concrete and will probably construct half the world's new buildings over the next decade....."
3296
Its newly generated financial wealth is looking for an outlet. This could well further destabilize the global financial scene and cause the bubble to collapse.
3297
Often to take advantage of the cheap labor costs in manufacturing. This investment is generally regarded as being a good thing when in reality it is hastening the decline of the material foundations of China.
3298
Veolia and Suez have invested $1 billion as they have the expertise and China has
300 million people without access to clean drinking water.
3299
The rapidly increasing social divergence is eroding the harmony the government seeks, publicly.
703

3300 The Great Leap Backward?
Elizabeth C. Economy http://www.foreigna ffairs.org/ 20070901faessay8 6503/elizabeth- c-economy/ the-great- leap-backward. html
Summary: China's environmental woes are mounting, and the country is fast becoming one of the leading polluters in the world. The situation continues to deteriorate because even when Beijing sets ambitious targets to protect the environment, local officials generally ignore them, preferring to concentrate on further advancing economic growth. Really improving the environment in China will require revolutionary bottom-up political and economic reforms.
Elizabeth C. Economy is C. V. Starr Senior Fellow and Director for Asia
Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of The River Runs
Black: The Environmental Challenges to China's Future. ‘China's rapid development, often touted as an economic miracle, has become an environmental disaster. Record growth necessarily requires the gargantuan consumption of resources, but in China energy use has been especially unclean and inefficient, with dire consequences for the country's air, land, and water.’ This article details China’s horrendous environmental and developing social problems. It is rapid economic growth, stimulated by Western investment and consumption of its cheap exports, is exacerbating those problems. These problems are typical of what civilization is doing to the ecosystem globally but the population of China means that the impact is large and widespread. Real change will arise only from strong central leadership and the development of a system of incentives that make it easier for local officials and the Chinese people to embrace environmental protection. This will sometimes mean making tough economic choices.
704

3301 http://www.cbc.ca/cp/world/070412/w041269A.html
Drought leaves 12 million Chinese short of drinking water. Thursday, April 12, 2007.
Canadian Press. BEIJING (AP) - More than 12 million Chinese are short of drinking water because of a widespread and long drought over many parts of the country, China's news media reported.
3302
This is measured by the GDP for the whole country and does not indicate that the great rise in numerous cities is partially offset by the fall in many regions. The irony is that the rise is largely due to the production of stuff while the fall is largely in the essentials like food, social diversity, the health of the environment and the future.
3303 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/26/world/asia/26china.html
‘As China Roars, Pollution Reaches Deadly Extremes’ By JOSEPH KAHN and JIM
YARDLEY,BEIJING, Aug. 25 — No country in history has emerged as a major industrial power without creating a legacy of environmental damage that can take decades and big dollops of public wealth to undo. But just as the speed and scale of
China’s rise as an economic power have no clear parallel in history, so its pollution problem has shattered all precedents. Environmental degradation is now so severe, with such stark domestic and international repercussions, that pollution poses not only a major long-term burden on the Chinese public but also an acute political challenge to the ruling
Communist Party.
3304
It raises the intriguing question of what will happen in China in coming years. I do not care to speculate on what may happen but the emerging middle classes are enjoying their new-found ‘wealth’ for now.
3305 The tendency for localization of the impact of their economic growth is not slowing down the global depreciation of natural capital.
3307 without showing China’s ambition to achieve super power status in place of the U.S.
3308 which is really an economic myth
3309 http://www.asiawateronline.com/news_show.php?language=english&n_id=1665
705

Biofuel craze is water madness. The tradeoff between water and biofuels may also be crucial for India. One sixth of India's food output is being supported by pumping groundwater, which is depleting rapidly.
3310
They are very dependent on water from the snow melt of the Himalayas and monsoons.
3311
For a small part of the population
3312
Like so many others!
3313
Its agriculture is deemed to be very vulnerable to climate change.
3314 http://www.tni.org/detail_page.phtml?act_id=17009
‘Floundering on climate change’ by Praful Bidwai, Frontline, 20 June 2007. ‘India's position on climate change at the G-8 summit was deeply
flawed and undermines its claim to responsible leadership, argues Praful Bidwai.’ This presents sound argument on why India’s position is flawed. It notes the ineffectual tackling of poverty but, as usual, there is no mention of the major, but sensitive, issue, over population. India is currently drawing down very rapidly on its remaining natural bounty so is bound to have a growing number of major predicaments.
3316
There is expressed concern about the declining birth rate when, in actual fact, it will ease the pressure on their remaining natural bounty.
3317
TOKYO - Fresh from a serious setback in Iran, where it lost its controlling stake in the huge Azadegan oilfield, Japan has launched diplomatic efforts in earnest to secure petroleum in neighboring Iraq.
3318
‘Pakistan is likely to face major gas shortfalls, starting with 778 million cubic feet per day (MMCFD) after two years to more than 11,000 MMCFD in 2025 due to continuously declining domestic supplies and growing economic needs.’ This is just one of a rapidly growing number of predicaments. It is what is to be expected from entropic growth. The
Pakistanis are likely to find it increasingly difficult to tackle with their declining natural bounty.
706

3319 The Japanese government are supporting the establishment of a wind farm in
Patagonia to produce hydrogen to be transported to Japan in cryogenic tankers. It presumes that the transportation will be viable as oil gets scarce.
3320
Peak Oil is starting to vie with climate change as a cause for expressed concern by the powerful voices. Peak water and peak food, however, are causing real concern amongst the knowledgeable. Peak population is too sensitive for much discussion!
3322 ‘Abu Dhabi Explores Energy Alternatives’ By HASSAN M. FATTAH Published:
March 18, 2007
ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates — On the outskirts of this Persian Gulf boomtown, past an oil refinery and a water desalination plant, the foundations are being poured for an ambitious project that will house a research facility and perhaps even a power plant, all intended to take this oil-producing giant into the next energy wave.’ They seem determined to follow Western countries - down the irreversible self destruct path.
3323 The true position there is hard to discern for political reasons.
3324 Religious, ethnic and political differences have inhibited developments in this region for centuries. The maneuverings by Western oil companies to gain from their resource wealth has not helped! Now the Asian giants are striving to get a look in.
3325 its skyline at night gives the impression of trying to rival Las Vegas.
3326
They are building up a momentum that will be hard to restrain when reality hits.
3328
Singapore’s major investment in Australian utilities in recent years seems to confirm this view. These financial movements, however, have little impact on Australia’s rapid draw down of natural bounty capital largely to enhance the material standard of living of the well off. They are just part of the Mind games played by the powerful.
3329
They, naturally, look at the dollar side of the coin only! The present mining boom is very dependent on the sustainability of Chinese economic growth.
3330
The government has a budget surplus due to the current boom in the export of these commodities. Some analysts suggest that Australia should follow Norway in investing some of that money for the benefit of future generations. That, of course, is a sound suggestion, as it would reduce current draw down of the natural bounty, so leaving more
707

for when entropic growth makes the situation more difficult. There is some criticism, however, in Norway for allowing some of their oil and gas usage to be wasted, so jeopardizing future usage.
3331
Even though it is the dry continent. These exports have been decimated by the current drought, which could be indicative of climate change as many climatologists suggest.
3332 Parliament of Australia: The Senate. ‘Australia's future oil supply and alternative transport fuels - Interim report’, 7 September 2006. This is a detailed examination of just one symptom of the malaise afflicting the foundations of Australia’s largely urbanized society. It presents a confused picture due to the input from vested interests so is most unlikely to lead to anything more than limited band aiding.
The Oil Drum: Australia and New
Zealand. Australia and the Export Land Model. Posted by aeldric on February 22, 2008. This paints a more realistic picture of the problem Australia is facing in meeting its demand for oil for essential road transport.
3333 And that invaluable intellectual resource, common sense.
3334
The current focus is on growth (economy and population) and the export of much of its limited natural bounty (minerals) to improve its wasteful life style. The governments and business are now feverishly but futilely addressing climate change.
3335
‘Black market in water stolen from farm tanks’ Erin O'dwyer, November 26, 2006 http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2006/11/25/1164341447007.html
WATER has become so precious in drought-stricken NSW that thieves are siphoning off thousands of litres from farm dams and rainwater tanks.
3336
The report Energy Projections to 2029-2030 by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics estimates that with current policy settings energy use will rise by 1.5 per cent a year. The report goes on to say that adoption of a carbon price or other measures could curtail the rise in energy use and raise energy efficiency. It expects energy consumption per head to rise from 275 gigajoules at present to 319 gigajoules in
708

2030. This myopic view by a government body essentially envisages business as usual with immigration leading to population increases in the cities. It ignores the very real prospect of a global depression brought on by the decline in the supply of industrial energy from the rapidly depleting global sources.
3337
Tainted by political manoeuvring between the involved States and the Federal
Government. It is proposed that $10 billion be spent on remedial action to restore some of the environmental flow whilst satisfying irrigation demands to some extent. The real meaning of this financial commitment is that this taxation money will determine the eco cost of this remedial action with an outcome that may be worthwhile rather than be used for some other project (like building another frigate) that will entail a different eco cost and have a different worth.
3338 The recent agreement between the Federal and State governments to update water supply infrastructure in the region and to manage ecological and agriculture flows is a very belated attempt to provide balance. It is essentially remedial action that may make a worthwhile contribution to restoring some of the ecological health of the basin whilst allowing a continuing contribution to feeding the city parasites. The ongoing drought sent out the wake call.
3339
The current boom, fueled by demand from China, is increasing the financial wealth of many of the well off (through corporate dividends) and of the Federal government (by corporate taxes). The government is putting some of this money in a Futures Fund, like
Norway is doing with the results from the exploitation of their oil and gas resources. This approach is sound in principle but the balance favors the current well off in preference to making provision for the problems facing future generations.
3340
It has the fundamental weakness of the ‘tyranny of distance’ in this sparsely populated continent. Rising fuel prices will hit its economy very hard, and many suburban and rural communities even harder.
3341
tourism is likely to be hard hit here by climate change as well as in the
Mediterranean. The irony is that the lack of aviation fuel is bound to cut back on tourism as well.
3342 ‘Salt http://www.abc.
Wars’ Reporter: net.au/landline/
Sean content/2006/
Murphy, s2070275.
28/10/2007 htm
709

PIP COURTNEY, PRESENTER: In this time of drought, you'd think the last thing farmers would have to worry about is a flood. In Western Australia, however, wheat farmers face the so-called silent flood: rising salt waters that affect about 20,000 hectares a year in the country's most lucrative grain-growing region. There's now a new push to expand a possible solution to salinity, known as deep drainage.’ This article details the growing problem with salinity and the unintended consequences of deep drainage to remedy the problem. It is another example of entropic growth, the irreversible trend towards disorder.
3343
Water supply is probably the most crucial issue after population which, as you would expect, does not even rate a sensible mention! The Federal government aims for increased skilled immigration and provides financial incentives for bigger families.
3344
The latest pronogstications by IPCC and other climate authorities suggest southern
Australia will be amongst the regions hardest hit by climate change.
3345
There are rural communities in south eastern Australia that have been devastated by drought, flooding and bushfires over the past two years.
3346 And even waking a few politicians and business people up. The couch potatoes, meanwhile, consume their ‘reality’ TV.
3347 By blindly emulating the Americans.
3349
The Cuba Diet
What will you be eating when the revolution comes?
Posted on Monday, June 6, 2005. By Bill McKibben. provides an apparently sound commentary on how the Cubans managed to handle their crisis. In so doing they have created what may be the world's largest working model of a semi-sustainable agriculture, one that doesn't rely nearly as heavily as the rest of the world does on oil, on chemicals, on shipping vast quantities of food back and forth. There is little doubt that the authoritarian government had a major influence and that the recovery did not occur over night and involved pain. But they are in a better position than most in their blind neighbour.
710

3350 ‘ Impoverished Cuba sends doctors around the globe to help the poor’ by Tom
Fawthrop http://www.smh. in Havana, com.au/articles/
October
2006/10/27/
28,
1161749315614.
2006 html
’CUBA, one of the world's few surviving communist nations, is quietly expanding relations in the Pacific region, and Canberra and Washington are said to be watching developments with concern. Cuba has been flooding some poorer parts of the region with doctors and humanitarian workers since the tsunami tragedy in Indonesia on Boxing Day,
2004. Swathes of the Pacific, from Kiribati to East Timor, are becoming dependent on
Cuban medical aid, and the Cubans appear to be winning hearts and minds. Following the
Java earthquake in May, teams of doctors were quickly flown to affected areas.’ These prejudiced comments can not hide the fact that the Cubans are able to really help.
3351
Although they do rely on vulnerable tourism to bolster their low standard of living.
3352
In marked contrast to the decline across the waters!
3353
It is ironical that the increased likelihood of damaging hurricanes in their region is a gift fostered by the consumptionism of their neighbors!
3355
Years of military rule, corruption, and mismanagement have hobbled economic activity and output in Nigeria and continue to do so, despite the restoration of democracy and subsequent economic reform. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit and the
World Bank, Nigerian GDP at purchasing power parity was only at $170.7 billion as of
FY 2005. The GDP per head is at $692. Nigeria is a leading petroleum producer and exporter. It is the 12th largest producer of petroleum in the world and the 8th largest exporter. Nigeria also has one of the world's largest proven natural gas and petroleum reserves and is a founding member of OPEC. However, due to crumbling infrastructure, ongoing civil strife in the Niger Delta- its main oil producing region- and corruption, oil production and export is not at 100% capacity. Mineral resources that are present in
Nigeria but not yet fully exploited are coal and tin. Other natural resources in the country include iron ore, limestone, niobium, lead, zinc, and arable land. Despite huge deposits of these natural resources, the mining industry in Nigeria is almost non-existent. About 60% of Nigerians are employed in the agricultural sector. Agriculture used to be the principal
711

foreign exchange earner of Nigeria. Perhaps, one of the worst undesirable effects of the discovery of oil was the decline of agricultural sector. So tragic was this neglect that
Nigeria which in 1960s grew 98% of her own food and a net food exporter, now must import much of the same cash crops it was formerly famous for as the biggest exporter.
Agricultural products include groundnuts, palm oil, cocoa, coconut, citrus fruits, maize, millet, cassava, yams and sugar cane. It also has a booming leather and textile industry, with industries located in Kano, Abeokuta, Onitsha, and Lagos. Like many Third World nations, Nigeria has accumulated a significant foreign debt. However many of the projects financed by these debts were inefficient, bedevilled by corruption or failed to live up to expectations. Nigeria defaulted on its debt as arrears and penalty interest accumulated and increased the size of the debt. However, after a long campaign by the
Nigeria authorities, in October 2005 Nigeria and its Paris Club creditors reached an agreement that will see Nigeria's debt reduced by approximately 60%. Nigeria will use part of its oil windfall to pay the residual 40%. This deal will free up at least $1.15 billion annually for poverty reduction programmes. As of April 2006, Nigeria became the first
African Country to fully pay off her debt (estimated $30billion) owed to the Paris Club.
3356
Shell has devastated the Niger Delta and destroyed the traditional life style of the indigenous people so that Westerners could have cheap fuel for their cars. The natural gas flared in this region is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions.
3357
American oil companies are making strong moves to enhance their ability to obtain oil from Africa, including Nigeria, because there are a number of advantages over other sources. These include the quality of the oil and the proximity to the U.S. However,
Chinese and Indian oil companies have the same idea!
3358 Nigeria, slightly larger than Texas, is losing 1,355 square miles of rangeland and cropland to desertification each year. While Nigeria’s human population was growing from 33 million in 1950 to 134 million in 2006, a fourfold expansion, its livestock population grew from 6 million to 66 million, an 11-fold increase. With the food needs of its people forcing the plowing of marginal land and the forage needs of livestock
712

exceeding the carrying capacity of its grasslands, the country is slowly turning to desert.
Nigeria’s fast-growing population is being squeezed into an ever-smaller area.
3359
'Brothers At Each Others' Throats' allAfrica.com NEWS,7 December 2007 http://allafrica. com/stories/ 200712070990. html
By Elizabeth Dickinson, Calabar/Port Harcourt. This article gives some idea of the irreparable harm the oil industry has done to the delta communities.
3361
The Fins may have to re-adjust their home heating views.
3362
There would be decreasing demand for their high tech exports as other countries struggle to provide the essentials
3365
Suddenly the region has had an upsurge in the perceived natural capital. The discoveries have increased the potential to use natural resources. Some discoveries are still being made worldwide but there is no reason to believe that they are now even close to the rate at which these resources are being used up. This discovery is no different in principle to say an earthquake deepening a harbor. It effectively increases the natural bounty for this region. It is an example of manifestation of the Fourth Law.
3367 Easy credit in recent years has enabled a housing boom that has built up a momentum that will entail a greater reactive force to slow down.
3369 Maintenance of freeways will drop down the priority list as carmania declines.
3370 Airports will be high up on the endangered species list.
3371
Easter Island serves as an example of a relatively isolated system (community). I say relatively because it did have access to a supply of fish they caught from canoes. That is, fish were a resource import. The community was a predator and the ocean the prey.
Sunshine, of course, gave them an energy input and rainfall gave them water so it was not a closed system. The Second Law did not apply to the community. Each of the inhabitants would be continually incurring an eco cost but that would be sustainable whilst fish could be caught and the number of trees was not depleting rapidly due to logging. Their draw down of natural resources was being offset by the fish caught. The entropy of Easter Island would be roughly constant under those circumstances.
Population growth would not have intrinsically affected that situation until it reached a
713

level where, combined with other factors, it reduced resource availability. In this case, the cutting down of trees to make idols inhibited the construction of canoes, so the fishing.
When that tipping point was reached, the community entropy would have peaked. The scramble for declining natural resources would have escalated. The inhabitants had become a plague. A die off followed.
3373
Nature provides an adequate income, insolation, air, water, carbon to meet the needs of a frugal ecosystem but not the demands of a rapacious beast.
3374
‘rapacious’ is more correct
3375 http://www.oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/2100
Can taxes on energy work? OECD Observer Published: March 2007. ‘Overall, as in all good policymaking, two features are vital for success: coherent policy goals that are clearly stated, and a good public understanding and acceptance of the need for action and of the measures that are being adopted The message is that taxes can help in the fight against global warming and to alleviate other environmental problems, as long as they are properly and coherently applied.’ This is a sound article on taxation measures that could conceivably ease the power down, if there were the political will to implement them widely. This is most unlikely in North America, Britain and Australia but there are positive signs in other Western European and some Latin American countries.
3377 Fossil fuels, fertile soil and aquifer water.
3378 Current concerns about peak oil is just one merging example.
3380 They will continue to resist this trend at the expense of others but the trend is still ble.
3381 It is intriguing that scientists are turning to the indigenous people for understanding of the signs of climate change.
3383
Those supplying industrial energy are the principal ones.
3384
Remember, we can rely on physical energy, air, some food and water income but most other natural resources civilization uses are not renewable in a timely fashion. We can use them only once. Their use contributes to entropic growth.
714

3386
Are all Humans just social atoms ? Book and Talk > The Social Atom: Physics and the Science of Human Affairs by Mark Buchanan. This article describes work that attempts to model societal behavior, including aspects of self-organization. It may be useful in discussing how society can address the coming power down. It is not relevant to the discussions here because society has not recognized the fundamental precepts that have governed the impact of human activities on the operation of the ecosystem. This ignorance has, naturally, had a major impact on their behavior.
3389 This is a crucial point. Humans can make decisions, like declaring war, that beats anything other species can do.
3390
Something has to be possible before you can make a decision about it. You need to have a box of matches before you can decide to strike one!
3392
It is quite likely that when there is greater awareness amongst seemingly knowledgeable people about the harm that civilization has done to the ecosystem, many will say that the fossil fuel deposits were created to enable humans to build up their fanciful civilization. Some, I have little doubt, will suggest it is an example of intelligent design. They will argue that it is not a possible outcome of evolution as we know it. My personal view is that such speculation is an example of human arrogance. I take the view that such things are beyond our ken. The simple fact of the matter is that we did find deposits of fossil fuels and have used these exhaustible resources for our own nefarious purposes. Now our society will have to live with the consequences.
3393
Even though our best scientists have limited understanding of these extremely complex operations.
3394
the impact of emissions due to industrial operations on the carbon and nitrogen cycles has already been noted
3395 Plagues of, for example mice, may ravage an area but the ecosystem generally recovers quite quickly. It will take Gaia much more time to recover from the plague of human civilization.
3397 ‘The Quark and the Jaguar’, Murray Gell-Mann
3398 he would presume, wrongly, they were included in the price.
715

3399 The apartment complex would be a manifestation of Life Axiom at an appreciable eco cost that is almost entirely irrecoverable.
3401
like wind blowing
3402
like igniting coal
3405
operation of the Fourth Law has established that potential
3407
Anarchism and the Question of Human Nature http://www.socialanarchism.org/mod/magazine/display/128/index.php
‘We have learned over the years to distrust words like sociobiology, evolutionary psychology, cognitive science, and above all that dreaded buzzword, “hard-wired” — yet we can no longer ignore the fact that these sciences are probably right about human nature. It does exist; it has biological roots; and while it does enjoy a large measure of free will, its most basic drives and emotions are indeed hard-wired.’ This type of discussion of human nature is irrelevant here other than it does recognize a degree of free will.
3408
this question of ‘free will’ has been argued by philosophers and scientists for many centuries. I avoid that contentious issue by just focusing on the freedom of humans (and other organisms) to make decisions about perceived options, without being constrained by any natural laws.
3409
For example, Peter Costello, the Australian Treasurer, pushes for global free trade in oil even though it is an exhaustible natural resource. Fancy an economist fostering the draw down of this natural capital! He would be given the boot if he tried to do that in a company.
3410 CEOs are exceptionally well paid to make profitable decisions that devastate the environment.
3411
New Scientist has an article ‘Why we are all creatures of habit’ that say humans do not have free will. This article does not conflict with the view taken here in relation to each decision.
716

3413 The Wikipedia description of this Principle seems to be an abstruse explanation of how ecological systems develop.
3414
Primarily because of the draw down of energy capital
3415 http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chikrugernov02,1,4474002.story?ctrack=1&cset=true
‘As climate shifts, should we fight it?’ Disappearing savannas in South Africa's Kruger
National Park are forcing scientists to reconsider what conservation means.’ By Laurie
Goering Tribune foreign correspondent, November 2, 2007. KRUGER NATIONAL
PARK, South Africa - Something unexpected is happening in the grasslands of South
Africa's premier game reserve, forcing grazers like zebras and wildebeest to move out of some areas while tree-loving species like elephants and leopards move in.’ This article details the dilemma that has arisen because plants and animals are shifting to adapt to climate change. They are clearly being more responsive than our politicians!
3417
There are exceptional cases where this is not true but that does not affect this generalization.
3419
From the NY Times, December 22, 2006 ‘Study Suggests Incentives on Oil Barely
Help U.S. ‘ By EDMUND L. ANDREWS, WASHINGTON, Dec. 21 — The United
States offers some of the most lucrative incentives in the world to companies that drill for oil in publicly owned coastal waters, but a newly released study suggests that the government is getting very little for its money. The study, which the Interior Department refused to release for more than a year, estimates that current inducements could allow drilling companies in the Gulf of Mexico to escape tens of billions of dollars in royalties that they would otherwise pay the government for oil and gas produced in areas that belong to American taxpayers. But the study predicts that the inducements would cause only a tiny increase in production even if they were offered without some of the limitations now in place. It also suggests that the cost of that additional oil could be as much as $80 a barrel, far more than the government would have to pay if it simply bought the oil on its own.
717

3420 Last Friday night at SW Oregon Community College, Dr Amos Nur spoke. He is director of the Stanford rock physics research program Here is a description of Nur's scientific accomplishments from the Society of Exploration Geophysicists:
< http://www.mssu.edu/seg-vm/bio_amos_nur.html
>
And here is a talk he has given elsewhere with about the same title:
< http://www.dtm. ciw.edu/content/ view/341/ 2/ >
For those who sought Amos Nur's talk on Oil & War, here is a more direct link to his website where you can get a pdf or Power Point presentation.
< http://srb.stanford .edu/nur/ >
Nur provides a knowledgeable view of why peak oil is probably happening now and the dire implications.
3421
That thought never enters the mind of most people so it does not influence their decisions.
3422
I believe it is important for us to know what we do not know about how ecosystems work. Then we would not so arrogantly misuse what nature has to offer.
3423 Our bodies are self-limiting and self-regulating but our thoughts are not.
3424 Money is a tool wielded with consequences that some are now realizing are absolutely devastating for the operation of society and its support system now and in the future.
3425 http://the-fourth-world.blogspot.com/2007/01/part-3-of-apocalypse-no-law-of-lifeand.html
‘ Apocalypse No! part 3: The Law of Life and the Law of Death ‘by Juan Santos,
Tuesday, January 09, 2007. This is a credible view of what is happening. It is provided with backing by the explanation of the unsustainability of synthetic methods provided in this essay.
3426 For which we could be proud if it had not entailed the demolition of our and our associated species life support systems.
718

3428 http://www.kunstler.com/mags_diary21.html
July16,2007
’Psychotic Break’ James Howard Kunstler ’A curious phenomenon worth attention from pathologists in the financial press is the now nearly complete de-coupling of the finance sector from the salient ominous trend in the oil sector: the fast-developing permanent oil export shock. By that I mean a severe decline in export ability by those nations currently supplying the US, Europe, China, and Japan -- an export decline that will far exceed actual production decline rates in Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela, the North Sea,
Mexico, and Iran.’ Kunstler provides sound argument that the delusionary economies in the oil-consuming countries will soon collapse as supply realities hit hard and the producing countries become loathe to share what is left..
3429
this trend for ‘oil nationalism’ is now growing rapidly with middle East countries,
Russia and Venezuela leading the way. There are signs, too, that they are limiting production now to extend the life of their fields. This will doubtless have an impact on the price of oil and so on the economies of the oil importing countries, particularly the
U.S.. China and India.
3430 LONDON (Reuters) - The world's five largest fully publicly traded oil firms are planning to invest billions of dollars more this year but extra spending may not translate into higher production. "Most companies have dressed down their volume growth estimates," said Jason
Kenney, analyst at ING in Edinburgh, referring to the European oil sector. "Essentially, they are spending more and getting less." http://maconareaonl ine.com/news. asp?id=16782
This is just one sign of the increasing difficulty in extracting oil. It is consistent with the premise here of global entropic growth. There will be an increasing requirement to draw down on the remaining natural bounty to meet industrial energy needs.
719

3432 Maximum rate of production, generally quoted in terms of million barrels per day.
This is currently about 86 for conventional oil. That is equivalent to 0,03 Tb per year.
3433
This should really be ‘extraction’ as ‘production’ conveys a false impression to the uninformed majority. Doubtless there are many who like to pretend we are clever enough to produce oil!
3437
governing the processing of digital electrical signals
3443
As we have noted, the Fourth Law followed by the Second Law describes this energy flow that follows the Life Axiom.
3444
This post is a slightly annotated summary of a poster presentation (Army Energy
Strategy for the End of Cheap Oil) at the 25th Army Science Conference, Orlando,
Florida, November 27-30, 2006, by three scholars of the US Military Academy at West
Point.The authors of that poster presentation are Colonel Kip P. Nygren, head of
Department of Civil & Mechanical Engineering, Lit. Colonel Darrell D. Massie, assoc. professor in the same department, and Paul J. Kern, a retired four star general. Policy changes: They warn that “presently, the real cost of fuel in the Army is invisible to decision makers and, therefore, fuel conservation measures have no apparent value in the decision making process. To change its culture, the U.S. military must first account for the true cost of energy in the planning, programming and budgeting process.”
3448
‘The Revenge of Gaia: Earth's Climate Crisis & The Fate of Humanity’ by James
Lovelock. He has a fairly realistic view of the dire situation facing civilization in view of climate change.
3451 but we can activate much bigger activities, like dropping hydrogen bombs!
3452
this will doubtless affect local geodiversity for a while but there is no reason to believe it will have a long-term deleterious effect.
3453 With a remarkable ability to get it right
3454
whose response is summarized by the Second Law.
3455
even hydrogen bombs
3456 http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/08/070815152912.htm
720

‘Flesh-eating Disease Is On The Rise Due To Global Warming, Experts
Warn’ Science Daily — Scientists at the University of Hull are working on an improved treatment for a debilitating flesh-eating disease which appears to be on the rise due to global warming.’ This is just one of many signs that suggest the environment is being thrown out of kilter by climate change.
3457
the impact on society and the waste of natural resources during the Cold War was only the beginning of these consequences.
3458
‘Something else that must occur, especially within applied science, is the replacement of risk analysis with the precautionary principle.’ This quote shows there is growing recognition in some quarters that industrialized society has often blundered into the partially unknown, generally to make money.
3462
there is compelling argument that numerous past civilizations made wiser use of the resources available to them
3463
the accent of education on the gains stemming from inventions is an example of a misdirected change.
3464
It can be argued convincing that these policies have been the driving force behind the misuse of natural resources. Economists manage to counter these arguments because so many want to believe in an improving standard of living – regardless of the real cost, the draw down of natural capital, the damaging of the ecosystem and demolition of future prospects.
3465 It is indicative of the abysmal performance of the human decision making process that there has been an explosive growth in consumption and (monetary) investment even as some knowledge of the damage being done to the ecosystem emerges in informed circles.
3466
Much has been learnt in informed circles about the deleterious impact of the car culture. This unsustainable user of exhaustible natural resources is anti-social and health impairing while devastating the environment. Yet carmania continues to grow with major outbreaks in the emerging super economies, China and India. It is ironical that the U.S. prides itself on its advances yet has the worst case of the carmania disease.
721

3467 It is not a self-regulating system.
3468
And, grimly, there is no turning back the clock.
3470
It is ironical to hear ‘leaders’ proclaim the virtues of freedom – to further devastate our life-support system.
3472
Subsequently there was profound criticism of Truman’s decision. The fact is that it was his judgment, given the circumstances as he understood them. It was based on some information only.
3473
As for Hiroshima
3474
Oil fields and associated structures, nuclear power plants, de-forestation, toxic and nuclear waste dumps are just a few of the types of devastation we have produced in our craze for stuff. What a magnificent legacy we are leaving!
3475
Like the fertile soil that has been paved over.
3477
There is often talk about waste heat recovery. This is a possibility where the exhaust from a process is at a temperature well above the surrounding. That exhaust then has potential to do work.
3478 I like the irony. I know that if I do work my body will tire, regardless of how much I get paid for doing the work. Yet society ignores that truism and looks only at what is achieved by doing the work. The eco cost is ignored.
3480 The money can be outlaid without any consideration of the physical consequences.
The commitment to use the energy ensures the immutable consequences.
3481
And the banks can create money to give the false impression that the machine can run forever!
3483
They would be affronted if told they were advocating the impossible perpetual motion machine. But that is what they are doing by believing in the sustainability of economic growth.
3485
Because we cannot eat or drink it or wear it or put it in the tank
3486
Bearing in mind that it has been conditioned to believe that economic growth is good
3488
World’s Predicaments.
3489
political leaders world wide laud economic growth as being the ultimate good. They would be aghast if they realized that they are promoting the decline of civilization.
722

3491 Chris Rapley is renowned for his sensible views on population. He notes the publication of a new report on population by the United Nations Environment
Programme.
3492
Oil is the current prime example but it is a common mistake to focus on that alone.
3493
forests are receiving appreciable attention but there are many others that also are being degraded.
3494
‘New threat to Wheatbelt as locust plague looms’ 16th October 2006
Tony Snell's farm is moving - literally. Millions upon millions of locusts are on the march across his Walebing farm in Western Australia, creating a scene more suited to a horror movie than a rural setting. It is a scene being repeated on about 2500 properties across nearly 60 shires in the northern and central agricultural areas with even more hatchings expected in southern areas in the coming weeks of the spring of 2006.
3495
Humans have an insatiable appetite for much more than food. They like their stuff.
3497
The irony is that this is most likely to lead to a reduction in the increasing suicide rate and an improvement in the quality of life.
3499 The last hundred thousand years at the very least.
3500 Heinberg discusses the mechanism of climax ecosystems from p14.
Stephen Jay Gould provides insight in ‘Life’s Grandeur’
3501 http://www.well.com/user/davidu/extinction.html
3502
die offs
3503 fostered by the Green Revolution: using soil to produce abundant food from oil and natural gas
3504
Tainter in ‘The Collapse of Complex Societies’ points out the modern complex society is much more costly to maintain than the simpler ones of earlier civilizations.
This makes the developing plague even harsher. Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed by Jared Diamond provides another view.
723

3505 There has been controversy amongst Cassandras as to how sever the die off will be.
The mean expectation is that the current 6.2 billion will be down to 2 billion by the end of the century. The logic that there will be insufficient natural resources to support more than that number is virtually irrefutable. Famine, war and disease are expected to be major factors contributing to the decline. The UN projection of 9 billion by 2050 is regarded by many as being completely unrealistic.
3506
Lack of potable water, starvation, malaria and AIDS are all contributing to a high death rate, particularly amongst children. Genocide and ethnic cleaning have also contributed.
3507
The well off in the cities will have to cope with these in the near future.
3509
So largely self-organization and self-regulation
3511
because it has facilitated storage and communication of information.
3512
Alan Kohler has an article in the Business section of “The Age” commenting on private equity, hedge funds and investment banks operate. It is a classic case of financial manipulation to the advantage of the operators. These people are so well off that they do not have to worry about such mundane things as sustenance. They can take them for granted as they get on with their money games. And we can politely ignore their manoeuvrings as they have very little impact on what is happening to the Body of civilization. But they could well implode as reality hits home.
3513 oil
3515 Published on Saturday, March 3, 2007 by the Guardian/UK
< http://www.guardian.co.uk/frontpage/story/0,,2025725,00.html
> /
* CO2 Output from Shipping Twice as Much as Airlines· Maritime emissions not covered by Kyoto accord· Studies suggest 75% rise in 15 years as trade grows’ by John
Vidal. Donald Gregory, director of environment at BP Marine, said this week that BP estimates that the global fleet of 70,000 ships uses approximately 200m tonnes of fuel a year and this is expected to grow to 350m tonnes a year by 2020. "We estimate carbon dioxide emissions from shipping to be 4% of the global total. Ships are getting bigger and every shipyard in the world has a full order book. There are about 20,000 new ships on
724

order" he said. Dr Veronika Eyring, a researcher at the Institute of Physics and
Atmosphere, calculates that the global fleet used 280m tonnes of fuel in
2001 and that could reach 400m tonnes by 2020An IMO study of greenhouse gas emissions has estimated that emissions from the global fleet would increase dramatically in the next 20 years as globalization leads to increased demand for bigger, faster ships. Without action the IMO predicts that by 2020, emissions from ships would increase up to 72%.
3517
This does not under estimate the efforts of many dedicated scientists in bringing before the powerful and the community facets of their understanding of what civilization has done to the operation of the ecosystem.
3520
By those who like to believe in business as usual rather than face reality.
3522
‘China May Use Oil Imports for More Than Half of 2010 Supply’ By Wang Ying and
Ying Lou http://www.bloomber g.com/apps/ news?pid= 20602099& sid=aAJPbzy56. Cc
Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- China will rely on imported crude oil for more than half of its supplies by 2010 as economic growth drives increased demand, an official from China
Petroleum & Chemical Corp. said. Imports may reach 208 million metric tons of crude, about 4.2 million barrels a day, 52 percent of demand, said Yang Yuanyi, deputy chief engineer for science and technology program at Sinopec, as China Petroleum is known.
The country shipped in 163 million tons of oil and oil products in 2006, 47 percent of its needs.’ These figures are unrealistic as supply will not be able to meet this demand but they do indicate the pressure that will be on the oil market. The price of oil is bound to continue to zoom and this will hit many of the global marginalized people very hard. And it will exacerbate global competition for this exhaustible resource.
3523 ‘ The Last Empire: China's Pollution Problem Goes Global ‘ by Jacques Leslie
December 10 , http://www.motherjo nes.com/news/ feature/2008/ 01/the-last- empire.html
2007
This article provides a picture of what economic growth is doing to China’s and its neighbors’ environment. The impact of pollution is terrifying in its implications for the
725

future health of the globe. There is good reason to believe that its WA is decreasing rapidly despite the hype about its ‘progress’.
3525
North America Continues to Neglect Energy Efficiency
< http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=35195 >
By Stephen Leahy, Inter Press Service, October 23, 2006. Energy efficiency in North
America and elsewhere has been on the back burner since the oil crisis of the 1970s. The
European Union is an exception, where even centuries-old apartment buildings are lit by low-energy compact fluorescents equipped with motion detectors or timers so they only turn on when needed.
3526
There is a major thrust by the powerful in the industrialized countries to develop carbon-free sources of industrial energy to mitigate the effects of climate change whilst fostering economic growth. There is still the unrealistic view that they can have their cake and eat it too.
3527 http://calsun.canoe.ca/News/Alberta/2007/02/14/3616419-sun.html
’Alberta ready to fight economic limits CALGARY - Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach warned Ottawa yesterday that his province was ready to do battle against any destructive environmental initiatives that could threaten growth in his province. Referring to the federal environment file as a "runaway train" with "every political party trying to get ahead of each other" on cutting greenhouse gases, Mr. Stelmach promised that sacrificing
Alberta's energy sector on an altar of green would end in disaster, given that the province already shoulders a major part of the country's economic load. "My government does not believe in interfering in the free marketplace, " he said, speaking to a crowd of 300 at the
Calgary Rotary Club's annual Valentine's Day luncheon in a downtown hotel. "You can't just step in and lower the boom on the growth and the development of the oil sands or elsewhere in the province. If that were to happen, the economic consequences for
Alberta, and for the economy of Canada would be devastating. " ‘ This is a common view amongst governments. They believe in the economic growth paradigm and do not understand the consequences of the associated decimation of natural resources. It is
726

economic growth that is the “runaway train” and this has to be slowed down – the sooner the better for future generations.
3528
Free trade has the objective to produce goods and services more efficiently by using local resources and then transporting the products to the market place. It is sound in principle but requires realistic accounting of the value of the products against the eco cost entailed. This does not occur because many of the elements of the eco costs are ignored while the value is distorted by the wants of the consumer. Globalization will give way to re-localization as the true costs come more in to play
3529 http://www.chicagot ribune.com/ news/nationworld /chi-burnoct24, 1,2698694. story
’Enormous fires threaten vast swaths of nation’ By E.A. Torriero, Tribune staff reporter
October 24, 2007. This article provides details of how developments combined with climate change have caused a major increase in the nature of wildfires in southern
California and in the problem of handling them. It is an example of the increasing load on resources needed to cope as entropy increases. It is an irreversible trend towards disorder.
This article indicates how difficult it is to mitigate the consequences to a degree.
3530 http://www.tomdispatch.com/index.mhtml?emx=x&pid=157744
Tomgram: Klare, Is Big Brother in Your Energy Future? ’For the last two weeks,
Tomdispatch has been concentrating on the way Pentagon strategists have taken possession of our future and are writing their own dystopian science fiction scenarios about the world we are soon to enter -- and the weapons systems that are meant to go with it. Five years ago, Michael Klare, a military and energy expert, wrote a prophetic book, Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict. Its title caught the embattled nature of our emerging resource future moment better than any Pentagon fantasy. His most recent book, Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of
America's Growing Dependence on Imported Petroleum, was no less on the mark. Now, for Tomdispatch, he continues to peer ahead in the second of a two-part series on our militarized energy future.’ Klare essentially looks at how the major powers will continue to compete for industrial energy to maintain the growth of industrialization. He does not,
727

like most seemingly knowledgeable people, recognize that our activities are drawing down on the irreplaceable natural bounty. This competition will just hasten the day when
Dependence on Nature Law starts to hit home. Emerging problems have to be tackled with decreasing natural resources.
3531
An article by Ric Brazzale, Executive director, Business Council for Sustainable
Development shows that like so many business people, he has no understanding of ecological reality. As a consequence, the policies they advocate, while seeming to be progressive, are nonsensical. He does not understand that cutting emissions by Australian industry will have no effect upon climate change. He makes the statement ‘Every tonne of CO2 released into the atmosphere is up there for 100 years.’ He has read that somewhere and does not understand that it has no relevance to the subject. It is a meaningless comment. CO2 naturally recycles with fossil fuel burning perturbing the cycle.
3532 There are plans to use nanotechnology to produce minute vehicles into the bloodstream to find and deal with cancerous cells. These scientists are encouraged to pursue their ideas without regard for the precautionary principle.
3533
They promote the delusion that damaging actions are reversible. They promote the belief that market forces combined with technology will solve these problems. The bewildered public will suffer but, hopefully, not in silence. Hopefully the Earthly
Revolution will give them voice.
3534
Provided by our ‘leaders’ in government.
3535
But of course, we're already running an experiment with the entire planet --it's called civilization. To keep this civilization going, we dump billions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere each year, the impact of which we're just beginning to understand. "In effect, we're already engineering the climate" says Ken Caldeira, a senior scientist at the
Carnegie Institution' s Department of Global Ecology at Stanford. He failed to add that the experiment was unintentional and a failure! We just did not know what we were doing, despite our acclaimed scientific know-how!
3537
Oil is the outstanding example
728

3538 http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=39083
’ENVIRONMENT: Dirt Isn't So Cheap After All’ By Stephen Leahy, BROOKLIN,
Canada, Aug 30 (IPS) – ‘Soil erosion is the "silent global crisis" that is undermining food production and water availability, as well as being responsible for 30 percent of the greenhouse gases driving climate change.’ This article provides details of what is happening to global soil fertility and the deleterious impact of its decline.
3539
the emissions of carbon dioxide that have initiated climate change is the outstanding example.
3540
Contaminating ground water.
3541
Often requiring appreciable land fill and installing a legacy because of their enduring toxicity.
3542
Millions of cars and trucks have a habit of destroying the fuel from millions of barrels of oil each day
3543
including rampant species and forests extinctions
3544
many rivers, lakes and glaciers have become maladjusted
3545 and of the Mind as well. There have been many contributions advancing human culture. But we are looking at the substantive here.
3546
This, of course, does not apply to the Mind. Accessible information is growing explosively.
3547 The rapid increase in tackling infrastructure and operational problems is substantiating evidence.
3548 Recent discussion of the maintenance problems in aging German nuclear power stations serve to illustrate the eco cost of this essential process.
3549
it is intriguing that there is so much hype about the information revolution yet there is very little consideration of how it can continue when the grids fail and the rare materials needed become very scarce. The electronic storage media is not long lasting. The corporations involved are now showing signs of tackling this problem.
3550
It is quite fascinating to watch how the media and talk shows here in Melbourne are responding to the emerging signs of the high entropy. Not that they know what that word
729

means. But they are continually talking about high fuel and food prices, the drought and the competition for water, burst mains, possible blackouts, bushfires and crop losses, traffic congestion, public transport overload, health problems, including the obesity epidemic, and societal breakdown, particularly amongst the young. The populace is bewildered. No one, least of all the politicians, spells out the reality that there are too many people consuming too much of the natural bounty so the ecosystem cannot cope.
3552 http://allafrica.com/stories/200709040686.html
South Africa: Enviro Officials Discuss Desertification. 4 September 2007
Pretoria: Environmental officials from South Africa are meeting with their international counterparts at a conference in Spain, discussing ways of combating desertification. The eighth Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Convention to Combat
Desertification (UNCCD COP8), kicked off on Monday in Madrid and will conclude on
14 September.
3554
Remember that this is a biased, anthropogenic view.
3555
Their operation are summed up by the Life Axiom.
3556 Many developing countries are having problems in providing sufficient electricity to meet the growing demand.
3557
The daily commute is very onus in many cities.
3558
Specialist scientists are putting together a frightening list that very few of the powerful bother about.
3560
Can anyone really imagine the great cities of the world crumbling! The fact remains that will happen and the developing scarcity of natural resources will ensure that predicament escalating in the relatively near future despite the power and the money of those who think they run a sustainable industrial civilization.
3561 Ilya Prigogine, Isabelle Stengers ‘Entre le Temps et l’Eternite’
3563 These are items of substance: solids, liquids, gases or a combination of these together with the associated energy where it can do useful work. The fossil fuels, fertile soil and potable water are the main elements but there are many other elements of biodiversity and geodiversity.
3564 When used, this capital irreversibly ends up as waste. This is the destiny of natural capital even when it is temporarily transformed into material capital.
3565 This can, and is, simply be created by fiat and is not selfregulating and self-organizing.
730

3566 Due to the production of much waste heat and waste materials after some usage and by useless devastation of the environment.
3567 The structures of material (so industrial) capital are subject to natural forces (wear and tear) so invariably have a limited life even when properly maintained. There is already talk about what should be done with Melbourne’s West Gate Bridge.
3568 It is not only the natural material resources, like oil, that have been seriously depleted for this purpose. Arable land, soil fertility, water and wood resources have all suffered in the construction of cities, the associated infrastructure and in meeting the needs and wants of that rapacious creature, Homo sapiens.
3569 Homo sapiens deem the electricity from coal-fired power stations are worthwhile for heating and cooling them even though they depreciate natural capital in a number of aspects, including using up coal and contributing to pollution and greenhouse gas emissions with the mines devastating some of the environment. The skyscrapers that adorn the cities are deemed to be examples of the cleverness of humans, despite the natural capital used up in their construction and operation.
3570 They provide the essential needs, like food, water and shelter plus valuable services like sanitation, education, health, security, entertainment, communication and transportation. They also provide other goods and services that are not nearly so worthwhile in a rational sense – but they are there at appreciable eco cost.
3571 The irreversible draw down of the natural capital
3572 for which they have not had to pay the real price.
3573 Cheap oil has clearly been one of the main sponsors but fertile soil and potable groundwater have played a major part that has been taken for granted in the past.
3574 Think of all the energy and materials that have gone into building, operating and maintaining the Chadstone Shopping Centre which has the temporary function of encouraging people to consume, so contributing to depreciation of natural capital. Only time will tell what will become of the Centre after the disappearance of the cars that make it accessible.
3575 The Dreamliner is worth more to the aviation industry and flying public than all the energy and materials that go into its construction and operation and the damage that its operation does to the eco system.
This worth is a transient intangible that should be compared to the real, tangible eco cost – but is not.
3576 The public transport system, rail, tram and bus, in Melbourne is not nearly as effective as it was fifty years ago whilst the population has increase tremendously.
3577 Ecological forces will exert more control on what civilization can use.
3578 Particularly in the cities
3579 This limit comprises a wide some of elements with oil, fertile soil and potable water probably being the crucial elements but there are many others that have a significant impact on how civilization operates.
3580 This trend is similar to that for the resources in the world model used in ‘Limits to Growth’.
3581 The aged water supply and sewerage systems in the cities will have to be repaired and maintained as long as possible.
3582 A degree of uncertainty
3583 In the sense of the materialistic operation of the community overall rather than in a financial sense.
731

3584 Due to wear and tear
3585 much of the current farming know how is based on using unsustainable methods, including chemical fertilizers, to provide food for the parasitic cities as the supply of fuels, fertile soil and potable water declines.
3586 to maintain and then replace, if possible, the Sydney Harbour Bridge and associated infrastructure.
3587 This abstraction is totally dependent on the tangible material capital. The usefulness of the Bridge is zero when the Bridge not longer exists.
3588 Just as a number of civilizations have done in the past.
3589 Will the additional runways at airports be returned to grazing land?
3590 Some would say the exuberant release of billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere has been the biggest mistake. Some believe, however, that turning to agriculture millennia ago really started the devastation of the ecosystem for the sake of Homo sapiens unthinking greediness.
3591 It is ironical that central banks are instituting measures to ease the credit crisis, so encouraging consumption that speeds up real depreciation.
3592 There does not seem to be a simple cure for carmania and flymania.
3593 Farmers and those in charge of water management in particular.
3594 those who argue that homo sapiens have earned the right to use up these natural resources are being very presumptious. They seem to have the belief that human ingenuity will come up with a replacement when necessary.
3595
future generations will doubtless ask why we were so stupid.
3596
Nature does not produce true wastes to a significant extent.
3597
‘Of course we must have parking spaces!’
3599
mainly because many market forces have been misdirected. The ‘bean counters’ are out of touch with reality.
3600
It has grossly distorted the worth of the limited supply of fossil fuels.
3602
The rampant financial games come at little eco cost but have a low WoEC because they do nothing that is worthwhile for the community at large. They tax the intellectual energies and scruples of a relatively small proportion of the population. They bolster the hopes of the middle classes for a luxurious life style only whilst this false economy is booming.
3603
Only climate change is awakening a degree of concern.
3604
In ‘crisis or challenge’ on p21 of ‘Gaia Atlas’, the authors see crisis as an opportunity to correct an imbalance and move to a new level of organization. That sounds good but the reality is that any activity to remedy an imbalance requires the use of other resources.
732

It means an increase in global entropy so the new level of organization cannot be a forward step even though it may be worthwhile locally.
3605
A major power down of civilization is almost certain this century with the decline of fossil fuels, particularly oil, making adaptation to climate change harder even though it may aid mitigation.
3606
the recovery of the ecosystem from disruptions caused by the Mayan civilization is one example. The cancer is much bigger in this case. Lovelock has doubts about how well it can recover even with a population decline.
3609
The Freedom Axiom establishes that there are no significant natural inhibitors to the decisions to use these resources. Our regulation methods have been anthropogenic gather than ecocentric. And they have not been appropriately self-regulating.
3610
The complex bio systems that contribute so much to our life support system.
3611
The Consequence Axiom establishes that these activities entail an appreciable unrepayable eco cost because they follow the Life Axiom.
3612
This has been lauded as a high (material) standard of living although the perceptive point out that it does not lead to a high quality of life.
3613 primarily those providing industrial energy
3614 They are essentially invasive species.
3615 Cassandras and Realists have recognized aspects of this malaise but have not articulated its holistic nature or the fundamental causative factor.
3618
Especially the fossil fuels
3619 forests and fertile soil head the list of the declining ones, especially in many countries. Plantation forests are not really equivalent to replenishment of old growth forests.
3620
Clean air and potable water are not always accessible!
3621
The climate change caused by the greenhouse gases produced by using fossil fuels is probably the most significant. There are, however, many others including those that affect the health of plants and animals. The long-term, insidious impact of plastic s on all forms of life can not be ignored.
3622
Like where to dump toxic wastes so that they do not affect the groundwater.
733

3623 The other species are protesting at this robbery of their environment, largely by dying off!
3624
The land gobbled up by the cities has reduced the capability to supply them with necessities!
3626 http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/06/10/frontpage/amazon.php
‘Dispute rages over Brazil dam project,By Larry Rohter
Published: June 10, 2007
PORTO VELHO, Brazil: The eternal tension between Brazil's need for
Economic growth and the damage that can cause to the environment are nowhere more visible than here in this corner of the western Amazon.’ This article typifies the dilemma faced by developing countries. In the perspective of this essay, it is a question of how rapidly does Brazil draw down on the available natural bounty to enable an improvement in the standard of living for its populace. It is a question of whether the dam is really worthwhile for the population at large given the irrepayable eco costs involved.
3627
Many have got used to have water supply and toilets in the home!
3628
The Snowy mountains hydro scheme has supplied a lot of electricity over decades.
Now something needs to be done urgently about the degraded river flows.
3629
Humans could well learn from how flora and fauna are trying to adapt to climate change and other changes initiated by civilization, like territory acquisition. They could well learn a salutary lesson from the inability of other species to cope with the plastic remnants in their environment.
3630 Climate change is not the only perversion that needs to be slowed down. The deterioration of marine ecology just has not received so much publicity. ‘Oceans in Peril:
Protecting Marine Biodiversity ‘ from WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE provides detail of this problem
3632
The increase in the price of fuel has had little impact in U.S. but has been devastating for the poor in many other countries.
734

3633 The differential between the relatively small number of elite and the numerous poor is really quite appalling, even in such countries as the U.S.
3634
financial, know how and tools, often inherited so RFM.
3635
It is ironical that the most rapacious communities have been so ‘successful’ because of their belief that they have a right to use natural bounty but take little responsibility.
3636
This applies particularly to cities.
3638
Hopefully the hope of the young for a bright (materialistic) future will be transformed into a challenge to make the best of living with nature.
3640
At an appreciable eco cost over time. It has been one of the major elements in the development of society.
3641
By the learning and education processes
3642
Brain and Spirit
3643
Tumor
3645
There has been an alarming trend to over value, financially and emotionally, entertainment and sporting celebrities whilst undervaluing those who assist in the provision of the life support necessities of food, drink, sanitation, shelter, education and care.
3646 The explosive growth of speculation in the financial market is a manifestation of its hallucination. It will continue as most of the practitioners are immune to the thrusts of reality.
3647
It is unfortunate that the manifold efforts of a growing body of concerned people globally have yet to receive the support they deserve from the powerful elite and their handmaidens, the media. Money still speaks louder than reality!
3649
The Americans lead the way, where they can, but many Chinese and Indians are striving to catch up. By comparison, the Scandinavians seem to have grown up while many Africans have yet to take their first steps!
3651
Yet society has not wised up to deleterious practices over millennia! The only reason to believe that some elements will wise up now is that civilization has gone so far down the wrong track that the consequences are becoming apparent even to some of those
735

distracted by dollar signs. The powerful ignore these symptoms because they believe they are immune to the consequences.
3652
In attitude and in actual activities
3653
this is really referring to the powerful in society, the so-called ‘leaders’, as the masses have been able to do little more than respond.
3654
We are still looking only at what actually happens in the day-to-day operations of the ecosystem, including what we have built, not what we think about them.
3655 http://carolynbaker.net/site/index2.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=242&pop=
1&page=0#
REDEFINING ‘POSITIVE': COLLAPSE FROM BEYOND THE HUMAN-CENTRIC
PERSPECTIVE, By Carolyn Baker. 06 December 2007. This article is an excerpt from
Carolyn's forthcoming book The Spirituality Of Collapse: Restoring Life On A Dying
Planet. Despite the title, Baker takes a human-centric view of what has happened. She does not identify the cause of this failure, the total dependence of the operations of civilization on depleting the limited natural bounty.
The article contains the quote of Derrick Jensen in Endgame, Volume I, that "The needs of the natural world are more important than the needs of any economic system." This judgment is meaningless as what has happened is that economic development has already devastated the natural world. The clock cannot be turned back.
He continues:
Any economic system that does not benefit the natural communities on which it is based is unsustainable, immoral, and really stupid.
Clearly Jensen does not recognize that the operations of civilization inherently are destructive of the natural communities. The balanced natural communities evolved over eons and civilization has devastated many of them in decades.
Baker notes that as Joanna Macy poignantly writes:
We hear you, fellow-creatures. We know we are wrecking the world and we are afraid. What we have unleashed has such momentum now;
736

we don't know how to turn it around. Don't leave us alone; we need your help. You need us too for your own survival. Are there powers there you can share with us?
The reality is that we cannot possibly turn it around. Humanity does not have that degree of control of what the ecosystem can now do. We have already used up a high proportion of the natural bounty capital.
3656
They have even tried to make rain and to emulate trees!
3657
‘Dear Friends of Focus the Nation. Tens of thousands of educators engaging with millions of students on a single day—a national teach-in on global warming solutions. ( www.focusthenation.org
) Today’s young people have a heroic task ahead of them: over their lifetimes, they will have to cut global warming pollution
90%. They must rewire the entire planet with clean energy technologies, creating millions of jobs, and laying the foundation for a just, sustainable and prosperous world for their kids. We owe them at least a day of focused discussion about that future. Join us.’ This approach would be favored by many informed and concerned people globally. It is, however, totally unrealistic. There can be no
‘global warming’ solutions for the fundamental reasons spelt out in this essay. In addition, ‘clean energy’ technologies are most unlikely to do more than partially replace the existing ‘dirty energy’ technology. The presumption that a
‘sustainable world’ is possible is fallacious because it ignores the fact that civilization is using up irreplaceable natural capital.
3658
Within the common, but illogical, sense. Is not immoral to usurp the rights of future generations?
3659
Yet they aspire to leave legacies!
3660 So the waste of oil continues even as the barrel gets low.
3661 And the quality of life has declined
3662 the belief in having replacing the joy in doing.
737

3663 ‘ANIMAL EXTINCTION - THE GREATEST THREAT TO MANKIND.BY THE
END OF THE CENTURY HALF OF ALL SPECIES WILL BE EXTINCT. DOES
THATMATTER?’ By Julia Whitty, The Independent, April 30, 2007
< http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article2494659.ece
> http://news.independent
.co.uk/environment/article2494659.ece
This provides a wide-ranging view of what human activities have done to biodiversity.
This thorough scientific investigation has not received the publicity of climate change provided by IPCC yet its impact on the ecosystem could well be as profound. There are moves afoot to remedy some of the damage that has been done.’ To save Earth's living membrane, we must put its shattered pieces back together. Only "megapreserves" modelled on a deep scientific understanding of continent-wide ecosystem needs hold that promise.’ ‘The Wildlands Project, the conservation group spearheading the drive to rewild North America -- by reconnecting remaining wildernesses (parks, refuges, national forests, and local land trust holdings) through corridors-- calls for reconnecting wild
North America in four broad "megalinkages": along the Rocky Mountain spine of the continent from Alaska to Mexico; across the arctic/boreal from Alaska to Labrador; along the Atlantic via the Appalachians; and along the Pacific via the Sierra Nevada into the
Baja peninsula. Within each megalinkage, core protected areas would be connected by mosaics of public and private lands providing safe passage for wildlife to travel freely.
Broad, vegetated overpasses would link wilderness areas split by roads. Private landowners would be enticed to either donate land or adopt policies of good stewardship along critical pathways.’
3664
The Port of Melbourne Authority proposes to deepen some channels in Port Philip
Bay, at the expense of the marine ecosystem, to allow larger container vessels to bring more stuff in to fill the land fills in adjacent regions after perfunctorily use.
3665
Which are quickly added to the exacerbating waste pile when the newest product hits the TV screens.
3666 Those scientists who warn about what has gone wrong are ignored.
3667 By devastating much of the natural ecosystem
738

3668 < moenviron@moenviron .org
> wrote: Coalition Seeks End to Raw Sewage
Overflows
Most of us don't know it, but billions of gallons of raw sewage flows directly into our rivers and streams each year. Raw sewage. This means untreated human waste: harmful chemicals, oil, grease, and everything else we flush down our toilets and drains. Yesterday, the
Missouri Coalition for the Environment sent a notice of intent to sue to the St.Louis
Metropolitan Sewer District (MSD) in an effort to resolve this nasty yet enduring problem. The Coalition wants MSD to commit to cleaning up a sewage system in desperate need of repair. The System is Broken.
3669
It is like paying a mortgage on a McMansion out of capital. Some communities will ease the situation by thieving income from other communities.
3670
From "Peak Oil and the Preservation of Knowledge" at http://www.energyskeptic.com/ PeakOil_and_ Preservation_ of_Knowledge. htm
By Alice Friedemann, August 18, 2006

provides appreciable information on the materials and industrial energy in particular required for the maintenance and refurbishment of much of the information service infrastructure in the U.S. It provides insight into how large the predicament is even though it covers only part of the requirement in this one country. There clearly is not enough natural bounty to overcome this predicament while still meeting the day-to-day functioning of society.
3672
A common mistake amongst the Cassandra’s is to believe that oil supply will be the only problem. Some or all of the noted predicaments are likely to hit home – unexpectedly but inexorably.
3673
They have not reinforced their case with the underlying physical reality brought out in this essay.
739

3674 There is still widespread belief in the ability of technology to alleviate climate change whilst allowing industrial energy to power further development. Blind eyes are turned to the other predicaments.
3677
This is a reminder of what has already been identified.
3678
Without much help from the elite!
3679
‘CRU estimates copper substitution last year totaled around 400,000 tonnes and
250,000 tonnes in 2005 -- around two percent of global demand. Analysts estimate a quarter of the substitution last year was in the plumbing industry where plastic has replaced copper in water pipes. Simon Payton, secretary general at the International
Wrought Copper Council, said amounts are hard to estimate. "There has been some erosion, particularly in copper plumbing tube. It's a finished product and users can make immediate decisions." Other losses have been in the auto industry where aluminium has replaced copper in radiators, and telecoms cables where optical fibres have become popular.’ The surging price of copper has stimulated an increasing amount of substitution by using aluminum, plastics and fibre glass in circumstances where the properties of copper have had previously played an important part in its selection. This is just another example of the increase in global entropy resulting in the emergence of another predicament.
3680
Provided by electricity and transportation fuels
3681 Carmania is the most insidious disease afflicting civilization. It is very common in the developed countries and amongst the emerging technocrats of the developing countries but limited to the elite in the undeveloped countries. It is not widely diagnosed because any holistic treatment has a side effect of depressing that illusion, the economy.
Treatment is bound to be painful – especially for the unthinking proletariat in their outer suburbs.
3682
A major study predicts grim future for Europe's seas. Despite numerous accounts of the declining state of the marine environment, few studies have attempted to link this situation with Europe’s human lifestyles or to examine what the future may hold for the seas. The project, European Lifestyles and Marine Ecosystems was designed to explore this relationship. On the eve of World Oceans Day, a group of over 100 scientists from 15
740

countries has revealed new evidence for the declining state of Europe's 4 regional seas.
Their models developed during a €2.5M EU funded research project have predicted dire consequences for the sea unless European countries take urgent action to prevent further damage from current and emerging patterns of development. The project coordinator,
Professor Laurence Mee, Director of the Marine Institute at the University of Plymouth said “Europeans are just beginning to wake up to the fact that the area of their seas is bigger than the land and that it is already seriously degraded.’ This article gives some detail of the damage civilization has done to the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Mediterranean
Sea and North-East Atlantic Ocean. It highlights the urgent need for remedial action without mentioning how this may be achieved. And this is aside from the impact of climate change!
3683
Eco tourism hardly helps!
3684
‘On Capitalism, Europe, and the World Bank’ by Noam Chomsky and Dennis Ott;
April 02, 2007. Chomsky is renowned for his authoritative views. In this interview, he contrasts the free market in the US with that of the social market in Western Europe. The wide ranging controversy about the relative merits of the free market system and the social market are anthropogenic views, so based on premises that do not take into account that everything humans do and use requires the consumption of natural resources. He suggests the social market is more egalitarian than the free market in ravaging the ecosystem!
3685
‘Concentrating Solar Power’
Posted by Chris Vernon on May 31, 2007 in the Oil Drum.Topic: Alternative energy
This is a guest article by Gerry Wolff, coordinator of TREC-UK. 'TREC' stands for the
Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation, their website is at www.trecers.net
. These websites are a fantastic source of informaion on concentrating solar power. ‘ This article discusses an ambitious but credible plan to provide electricity.
It discusses European requirements but the proposed mechanisms are applicable in principle in many regions. It may well eventually provide a worthwhile contribution to
741

mitigating this particular predicament. It would not, however, do much to ease the
World’s Predicaments unless carried out in conjuction with a decreasing population and decreasing consumption of stuff. In fact, if it eased the electricity supply problem it could well encourage businesses and people to continue with business as usual – in decimating the natural bounty.
3686 There is widespread talk about a ‘low carbon economy’ by people who do not yet realize that this implies a powering down.
3687 http://www.unfoundation.org/media_center/press/2007/st_4607.asp
April 6, 2007. ‘Combating Impact of Climate Change Depends on Global Policymakers’
STATEMENT OF TIMOTHY E. WIRTH, President, United Nations Foundation on the release of the IPCC Working Group II report. ‘The United Nations, via the United
Nations Development Programme and the Global Environment Facility, is working to bring together resources that will help. There is an enormous opportunity to mobilize critical technology and resources to help all societies prepare for, adapt to and mitigate changes to our world.
3688 The current rush to install ethanol plants in the U.S., at the expense of corn for food, because oil prices have gone up illustrates the common myopia of the free market.
3689
‘Last Sunday: Anti-capitalism in five minutes or less ‘ By Robert Jensen
[Remarks to the final "Last Sunday" community gathering in Austin, TX, April 29, 2007.
For a PDF of all five of the talks in this series, write to rjensen@uts. cc.utexas. edu .]
This talk explains the damage that capitalism does to society at large to enable the corporate elite to pursue their greedy goals. It is a realistic criticism of what capitalism has done to society. It is an anthropogenic view. It omits to take into account that society is totally dependent on using up the natural bounty. In my view, capitalism’s greatest fault is that it’s objective is to use this natural bounty as quickly as possible for temporary, materialistic wants.
3690
< http://naturalsystems.blogspot.com/2007/12/systemic-responses-to-crises.html
>
‘Doing What Comes Naturally: Responses to Systemic Crises’ by Dave Ewoldt,
December 6, 2007. ’ He says ‘Being honest about what the problem really is the
742

necessary first step in formulating responses to these systemic crises that will be both effective and lasting.’ That seems to be a realistic view but he then follows with
‘Capitalism is a system that has failed--dangerously. Fortunately, there is an alternative that just happens to be both life affirming and capable of improving quality of life. The alternative is relocalized steady-state economies and embracing sustainability, especially its carrying capacity aspect.’ He makes a strong case for how capitalism has contributed to what has gone wrong but does not recognize the fundamental problem that civilization is irrevocably using up the limited natural bounty. So he comes to the fallacious conclusion that society can turn the situation around. He believes, as most proponents of seemingly realistic treatments for the holistic problem, that society can regain a pragmatic control of the operation of the ecosystem. This is wishful and misleading thinking!
3692 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2007/06/15/AR2007061501857.html
‘A Climate Culprit In Darfur’ By Ban Ki Moon, June 16, 2007. Just over a week ago, leaders of the world's industrialized nations met in Heiligendamm, Germany, for their annual summit. Our modest goal: to win a breakthrough on climate change. And we got it
-- an agreement to cut greenhouse gases by 50 percent before 2050. Especially gratifying for me is that the methods will be negotiated via the United Nations, better ensuring that our efforts will be mutually reinforcing.’ In this article, the UN Secretary General notes that climate change has had grievous impact on water and food issues in a number of African regions, including Darfur. He said ‘Ultimately, however, any real solution to
Darfur's troubles involves sustained economic development. Precisely what shape that might take is unclear. But we must begin thinking about it. New technologies can help, such as genetically modified grains that thrive in arid soils or new irrigation and water storage techniques. There must be money for new roads and communications infrastructure, not to mention health, education, sanitation and social reconstruction programs.’ This is a conventional view based on the presumption that money can power this development. The reality, however, is that the
743

development requires the irrevocable draw down of natural bounty with most of occurring within the region. Know how from overseas could well contribute to more worthwhile developments but they would still be limited by the available bounty which has bee reduced by climate change.
3693
For all its oft-touted benefits in fostering motivation and innovation, capitalism has two fundamental, fatal weaknesses. It does not have any inherent mechanism to control the damaging impact of the unscrupulous or one to take into account the draw down of natural capital. Its early success was largely built on trust that has now disappeared down the greed sink-hole. ‘Capitalism implies individuals interacting and trading freely. Any sector of our economy that actually works by these principles is probably miniscule. The
American economy interacts through corporations, unaccountable elitist tyrannies with inherently psychopathic properties. Americans have overwhelmingly become office creatures, blandly accepting their meager pay and benefits while screaming for worse conditions to be shoved down their throats in the name of patriotism or religion or free trade or "capitalism" or whatever other pyramid scheme is popular in the kept press.’
This comment on the American economy provides some realistic perspective.
3694 ‘While the Left pursues environmentalism to advance its global agenda, conservation is best entrusted to local stewardship.’ by Roger Scruton. ‘Conservatism is about preserving intrinsically valuable things—economic capital, social capital, and natural capital. I use the word “capital” deliberately, for its opponents say that conservatism is nothing but the apologetics of capitalism. That is absolutely right—provided you understand that capital embraces many things that are not translatable into economic terms.’ Scruton argues that capitalism leads to better decisions than the authoritarian approach of the left. He mentions ‘natural capital’ but clearly does not recognize that the exhaustible natural resources, including the fossil fuels, are natural capital that has become seriously depleted with the capitalistic U.S. leading the way in this devastation.
He talks about trusts ensuring the present generation leaves a sound legacy for descendents. ‘The trustees of a bequest must respect the wishes of the testator and in so
744

doing—by holding their own desires and present emergencies in abeyance— will serve the interests of future generations.’ This commonly refers to financial assets produced originally by drawing down on natural capital. Scruton, therefore, presents a seemingly sound case for capitalism in theory and does not even mention how successful it has been in Western countries in rapidly drawing down the limited natural bounty for the material benefit of a minority.
3695
‘The End Of The World As We Know It’ by Immanuel Wallerstein, former president of the American Sociological Association. ‘he talks about it in terms of complexity theory - that historical systems, like all systems, have finite lives and after a long development move far from equilibrium and reach the point of bifurcation and demise, where small inputs have large outputs and the outcome is unpredictable. Capitalism has hit this point.’ ’What happened in the Western world is that, for a specific set of reasons that were momentary or conjunctural or accidental, the antitoxins were less available or less efficacious, and the virus spread rapidly and then proved itself invulnerable to later attempts at reversing its effects. The European world-economy of the 16th century became irremediably capitalist. And once capitalism consolidated itself in this historical system, once this system was governed by the priority of ceaseless accumulation of capital, it acquired a kind of strength vis-B-vis other historical systems that enabled it to expand geographically until it absorbed physically the entire globe, the first historical system ever to achieve this kind of total expansion. .... this does not, however, mean that this was inevitable or desirable or in any sense worthwhile.’
3696
"The raging monster upon the land is population growth. In its presence, sustainability is but a fragile theoretical construct. To say, as many do, that the difficulties of nations are not due to people but to poor ideology and land-use management is sophistic." ~ E.O. Wilson. Nevertheless, ignorance of the Consequence
Axiom has contributed to the enabling of population growth.
3697 So forcing them to find an outlet for the energy acquired by eating. This outlet can be constructive in enabling more intellectual activities. It can also be destructive in energizing hooliganism especially in the presence of social divergence.
745

3698 ‘The mass of mankind is ruled not by its intermittent moral sensations, still less by self-interest, but by the needs of the moment. It seems fated to wreck the balance of life on earth - and thereby to be the agent of its own self-destruction. What could be more hopeless than placing the Earth in the charge of this exceptionally destructive species.’~
John Gray, Straw Dogs. Humans were not put in charge. They have presumed the right without understanding what they were doing. They are a plague.
3700
Schneider, Eric D. and Dorion Sagan ‘Into the Cool: Energy Flow, Thermodynamics, and Life’. ‘Scientists, theologians, and philosophers have all sought to answer the questions of why we are here and where we are going. Finding this natural basis of life has proved elusive, but in the eloquent and creative Into the Cool, Eric D. Schneider and
Dorion Sagan look for answers in a surprising place: the second law of thermodynamics.
This second law refers to energy's inevitable tendency to change from being concentrated in one place to becoming spread out over time. In this scientific tour de force, Schneider and Sagan show how the second law is behind evolution, ecology, economics, and even life's origin.’ I have read a number of books on how and why the ecosystem is in its present state. They all discuss the part role of thermodynamics but show that we really have little understanding of how the extremely complex world came about. Just consider a few examples where thermodynamics does not enter in to the matter. What mechanism sets up and maintains your heart-beat? How did such a complex mechanism as the eye evolve? Is not DNA a marvelous information transmittal system? I do not wonder how
Schneider and Sagan answer these questions with what must be a simplistic view of what has evolved.
3701
A societal function posing an increasing demand on the consumption of the natural bounty is tackling devastation of those values that tend to hold society together. There is an increasing need for policing of crime, hooliganism, terrorism and the like. This is a base load on the functioning of society comparable with providing food and water and the other basic necessities of life.
3702 http://www.warsocia lism.com/ thermogenecollis ion.pdf
746

THERMO/GENE COLLISION: On Human Nature, Energy, and Collapse by Jay Hanson – 2/20/2007
Published in the spring 2007 issue of The Social Contract http://www.thesocialcontract.com/
This paper is archived at http://www.warsocialism.com/thermogenecollision.pdf
This paper provides a view of what is happening to civilization consistent with the view expressed in this essay although it is couched in very different terms. It looks only at the consequences of declining supply of fossil fuels. It does speculate on why humans behave in this manner. It does not recognize the fundamental causative factor of the holistic problem; society is drawing down on the irreplaceable natural bounty.
3703
It is a pity that homo sapiens did not mimic the self-regulation of nature
3704
primarily money, often inherited.
3705
both human labor and machinery
3706
they can take for granted that they will be provided with all the basic necessities of comfortable life.
3707
22 nd
Century historians (if there are any) will be trying to work how it was that seemingly knowledgeable left a legacy of decimation of society’s life support, the ecosystem.
3708 COLLAPSE AND ITS DISCONTENTS, A Carolyn Baker.Org Exclusive,
By Dmitry Orlov,February 01, 2007 ‘Moreover, it must be something of a blessed state, not knowing anything about resource depletion or global warming or collapse, or not caring to know. "Eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we all die," says the preacher, and who am I to disagree? When people do find out about these things, they sometimes go through a bout of acute psychological distress, and only eventually settle down to some internal compromise. I feel almost guilty when I bring someone out of this blessed state, because it feels wrong to be breeding discontent among an otherwise pacified and well-controlled populace.’ Orlov is familiar with the Russian collapse and has made the
747

point that the coming American collapse will be harder because Americans are so addicted to consumerism.
3709
There are several billion who cannot take even that for granted!
3710
The scene is analogous to the officers on the bridge of the Titanic being too busy to notice the iceberg dead ahead. The passengers enjoy the voyage because they have
(mis)placed faith in the crew.
3711
accentuated by the recent uncontrolled derivatives speculation bubble.
3712
But not wisdom
3713
with a marked emphasis on weapons of mass destruction, including cars, airliners and container vessels.
3714
But not a bargain!
3715
As is oft pointed out by knowledgeable people, soil is now a means of producing food from oil and gas in most regions. The traditional approach of letting nature do most of the work is frowned upon in industrialized countries.
3716
There are a number of studies that show the failures to self-regulate of the free market system in recent times. The Great Depression is only one example. There is good reason, according to a number of authoritative voices, to believe that the Greater Depression will, shortly, be another example. The Tumor’s (mal)influence is growing rapidly.
3717 It is fascinating to wonder at the self-regulation mechanism that controls the salinity of the oceans. It would be useful for more people to have this awareness of the power of natural mechanisms. They would then be less inclined to believe they have control.
3719 These are the tangible consequences largely due to the blooming, out of control, intangible financial forces.
3720
There will be many who point at the advances of civilization and opine that we can use our proven cleverness to overcome these predicaments. They will have to learn the meaning of irreversible. We cannot unbuild the Manhattan Bridge!
3721
A multiplicity of regionally and globally based predicaments will gradually or explosively get worse. Reactive remedial action will have to vie with sustenance for the remaining natural bounty.
3722
‘Bankers Fear World Economic Meltdown’ by GABRIEL KOLKO
748

Essentially, “deregulation and liberalization,” which the IMF and proponents of the
“Washington consensus” advocated for decades, has become a nightmare.
Warren Buffett, second richest man in the world, who knows the financial game as well as anyone, has called credit derivatives “financial weapons of mass destruction.”
U.S. Security and Exchange Commission has since mid-June 2006 openly deplored the practice because the panic, if not chaos, potential in such favoritism is now too obvious to ignore. The practice is “a ticking time bomb,” one industry lawyer described it. The rules some once erroneously associated with capitalism -- probity and the like -- no longer hold. Roach was even more pessimistic: “a certain sense of anarchy” dominated the academic and political communities, and they were “unable to explain the way the new world is working.” In its place, mystery prevailed. Reality was out of control. Given such profound and widespread pessimism, the vultures from the investment houses and banks have begun to position themselves to profit from the imminent business distress – a crisis they see as a matter of timing rather than principle.
3723 Unfortunately it will not be the principle rascals who pay the biggest price.
3724 The disconcerting reality is that the powerful, in all countries, will continue to enjoy their free lunch for some time, at the expense of the proletariat. There is no balancing force.
3725
With hyper inflation leading to the Greater Depression.
3726
The thrust of capitalism will ensure that Big Business will continue to pursue growth even if they adjust their sights to be more realistic about environmental concerns (like global warming) and aim to meet society’s needs rather than wants.
3728
‘ Corporate takeovers -- not a strong, stable economy -- are fueling Wall Street's latest bubble.’ By Eric J. Weiner, ERIC J. WEINER is the author of "What Goes Up: The
Uncensored History of Modern Wall Street as Told by the Bankers, CEOs, and
ScoundrelsWhoMadeitHappen."July20,2007 http://tinyurl.com/3xpgpl
’THE DOW JONES industrial average closed above 14,000 for the first time Thursday, a historic, if puzzling, milestone. Most finance experts agree that stock markets thrive
749

during periods of steady economic growth and political stability. But today's economy hardly is clicking on all cylinders, and the geopolitical landscape has never seemed more perilous. So what's driving this market to such heights? In a word: takeovers. Wall Street is in the midst of a raging leveraged buyout boom that makes the "greed-is-good" 1980s look like the Great
Depression. Leveraged buyouts are Wall Street's version of "Flip This House": Borrow a bunch of cash to buy a company, dress it up by scrubbing the books and streamlining the operation, and resell it all for a tidy profit.’ This article seems to indicate a trend of the stock market from economic growth fundamentals to playing games. It could well be an early recognition of the fallacy of continuing growth amongst the well off at the expense of drawing down on the natural bounty.
3729
Although it is hiccupping, it will continue to boom so long as there is confidence in continuing economic growth. When reality starts to spread, watch out. The word will be
‘depression’ rather than ‘recession’. Even fanciers and investors have to eat and drink.
See how they panic when the trickle up effect reaches them!
3730 they get the headlines while the growth of the poor may make the inside pages!
3731 Money (a figure of the Mind) supply is growing. Natural bounty (the food for the
Body) supply is declining.
3732
Remember that this boom, whilst well promoted in the media, is really quite isolated as it involves the well off only.
3733 You want to be smart so you can anticipate trends and avoid the stampede. Think through the implications of the Dependence on Nature Law.
3734
There are doubtless many smart people who have read the signs and are carrying out covert activities to reduce the risk of being ‘caught with their pants down’. They know better than to believe the hype about continuing economic growth.
3735
we have only looked at what human activities have already done. We have not closely examined the attitudes that have fostered this destruction. Most people still believe that technofixes will provide solutions to the emerging energy problems. They are still blind to the reality.
750

3736 Oil, water, fertile soil, arable land just head the list of materials. But what is left of fellow species should also be included as they work hard at regulating the ecosystem.
3737
As is happening already in many regions without the lucky ones even noticing.
3738
Its entropy is growing and this rate of growth has probably peaked.
3739
There are numerous technological proposals to remedy perceived inadequacies without consideration of the precautionary principle, the irrevocable eco costs entailed or prioritizing the remaining natural bounty.
3740
No one wants Manhattan to become like downtown Detroit.
3741
What odds that the Chinese get a bigger share than the Yankees?
3742
“Building a New Economy,” in Lester R. Brown, Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet
Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble www.earthpolicy.org/Books/PB2/index.htm
Additional information available at www.earthpolicy.org
The emerging Ecological Revolution, following the Agricultural Revolution and the subsequent Industrial Revolution is discussed in Chapter 12. Superficially, it appears a sound way for society to go to provide sufficient industrial energy to replace what is obtained from the fossil fuels. It is, however, supremely optimistic in what and how quickly this can be done. This type of proposal requires rational debate using realistic appreciation of the eco costs involved. The implications of the Consequence Axiom need to be understood by the powerful.
3743 if it can find some amidst the consumption frenzy.
3744
In ‘the Revenge of Gaia’, Lovelock hypothesizes on the synthesis of food using fusion energy and readily available air, water, carbon, nitrogen, sulfur and trace elements.
This would reduce the need for agriculture and give the ecosystem greater scope for selfregulation. This may be possible in the long term but the precautionary principle should apply.
3745
Population, consumption, economy, wealth
751

3746 even though it does not receive the media attention it deserves.
3747
but inflation will reduce its real influence appreciably
3748
Americans are not cutting back on driving because most can afford the rising gasoline price. But the oil price rise is making the cooking of food more difficult for billions in the undeveloped countries.
3749
Thinking through the arguments presented here about the reality is not easy work!
Assembling the pieces of the jig saw was not easy either!
3750
there are numerous sites on the Internet with sound suggestions that will probably grow to be the basis of the Earthly Revolution.
3753
their view is essentially based on the fallacious technobubble. They assert industrial waste can be eliminated and atmospheric CO2 level decline. It is unfortunate that this type of misperception is gaining some prominence as it inhibits facing up to reality.
3754
How successful have you been in convincing family and friends that they should power down because a societal collapse is imminent?
3756
Don’t you like the irony that trade globalization increases the efficiency of the production, so consumption, of goods with the result that it is increasing the rate of declining of natural bounty capital.
3757
Copyright
August
© 2007
27,
The
2007
American
Issue
Conservative
One-Child Foreign Policy
’Lower birth rates will alter both society and strategy.’ by James Kurth. This article discusses the emerging irrelevance of conventional warfare strategies. It notes the impact of demographics on this trend. It points out that these trends are leading to increasing internal problems, particularly in the Western countries. It clearly is a knowledgeable view of how the Western operational strategy has changed appreciably in the relatively short period since WWII. It does not, however, note that this trend is to be expected with global increase in disorder. It is another example of looking at the trees rather than the forest. It is a reductionism view rather than holistic. It also looks at symptoms without proposing treatment.
752

3758 ‘terrorism’ is another term that is intentionally misused by our ‘leaders’ to convey the wrong impression. In many cases it is the ‘have nots’ rebelling against the robbery they have been subject to for centuries but now they have access to the weapons to gain their revenge, using innovative methods.
3759
‘The metamorphosis of conflict’ by John Gray, Harper's Magazine (June 2007)
Discussed in this essay:
The Changing Face of War: Lessons of Combat from the Marne to Iraq, by Martin van
Creveld. Ballantine Books.
The War of the World: Twentieth-Century Conflict and the Descent of the West, by Niall
Ferguson. The Penguin Press.
The Utility of Force: The Art of War in the Modern World, by General Rupert Smith.
Alfred A Knopf.
Gray discusses the nature and evolution of war in recent times. He comments on strategies that have worked and those that have failed. He does not, however, comment on the holistic scene, the extraordinary growth of the human population coupled with the increasing complexity of society. I venture the hypothesis that what has happened in regard to global conflict is consistent with the view taken in this essay of global entropic growth.
3760
The current international spreading of equine influenza is an unintended consequence of globalization of horse racing.
3761 The U.S. is the undoubted leader.
3762 Cuba and Finland have already been placed in that category.
3764 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/e551d88e-0d44-11dc-937a-000b5df10621.html
‘Rich urged to pay climate costs of poor’ by Fiona Harvey in London Environment
Correspondent, Published: May 28 2007. This article details Oxfam’s estimates of what contributions rich countries (the major contributors to climate change) should make to the necessary adaptation by poor countries, who are likely to suffer the most.
3765
‘Peak Oil and the Preservation of Knowledge ‘ By Alice Friedemann August 18,
2006
753

www.energyskeptic. com
"Peak oil will affect more people, in more places, in more ways, than anything else in the history of the world." Walter Youngquist, author of Geodestinies.
Summary: After worldwide oil production peaks, there are no substitutes ready to make up the energy shortfall. The immediate problem will be a need for liquid transportation fuels.’ This is a very sound article on the problems that will emerge as the oil supply declines in the relatively near future. It covers the full gambit of the impact on civilization but with emphasis on the problem of storing information for the use of future generations. It only touches on how over population contributes to the magnitude of the problems and the likely impact of climate change. It does not, however, make the substantiating point that civilization has built up and operates by drawing down on the irreplaceable natural bounty. The Dependence on Nature Law provides a sound basis for the points made in this article.
3766
The general malaise seems to have precipitated an economic collapse amongst the poor in many countries, including the U.S. This contagious disease is spreading without widespread diagnosis, as yet, as the well off are currently immune to the breakdown of the supply of essentials. They will be hit by the side effects in due course. Treatment may then build up! This could become well known as ‘the trickle up effect’.
3767
Contrary to popular opinion, it would be a good thing. It would mean a slow down of the usage of the natural bounty. It would also mean people doing less work so having more quality time. It would mean less production of stuff. It would be synonymous with power down.
3768 I expect that our grandchildren will look back at the Greater Depression as the defining event for the Earthly Revolution.
3769
It is almost unbelievable that in a society that has so much faith in financial capital there is so little consideration for the exhaustible natural capital. It is absolutely crazy that the use of fossil fuels, fertile soil and aquifer water has been so cheap.
754

3771 The decline in availability of natural resources, the degradation of the environment by the exacerbating wastes produced and the consequential devastation of social, geo and bio diversity.
3772
I know from an unpleasant experience that I am allergic to smoked oysters. They make me sick. So I have decided not to eat them. Society is learning that there is now little uncertainty about the assertion that using fossil fuels to provide industrial energy is making the climate sick. But society is a big glob. It will take copious amounts of intellectual energy, market forces with, hopefully, a dash of wisdom to get the glob to slowly adopt measures to mitigate the impact of climate change. And that is only one of our predicaments!
3774 http://www.bestcyrano.org/THOMASPAINE/?p=472
‘The Planned Collapse of America. We are seeing the planned collapse of America, coming down the road we are on. What are we going to do to get our nation off that highway to hell?’ By Peter Chamberlin,12/4/07. This is an anthropogenic view of the moves by the powerful to foster their globalization agenda at the expense of the American people. It shows that the powerful do not appreciate the fundamental fact that all the operations of civilization depend on using up irreplaceable natural bounty. They have yet to learn that they are powerless against that reality. But they are not the ones who will have to pay the price of this ignorance.
3775
That is an invasive species
3777
As a reminder, this is like the aging of your body.
3778
I hope you are looking after your body better than society which is addicted to drugs.
3779
They have become unreasonably cheap because of our temporary energy slaves.
3781 With aquifer water being prominent in some.
3782 The price increase for oil has stimulated a rush for ethanol producing plants in the
U.S. which will use a large percentage of the corn crop. Currently, there are 109 ethanol plants operating in the U.S. with a capacity of close to 350,000 barrels per day. Another
53 plants are under construction, which are projected to raise total ethanol capacity to
620,000 barrels per day. That could supply 2.9% of the U.S.'s daily demand for liquids
(21 million b/day) while consuming 25-30 percent of the total U.S. corn crop. China
755

realizes the danger inherent in jeopardizing food production for the sake of fuel.
Its leaders have announced a moratorium on the production of ethanol from food crops.
World grain production has fallen short of demand in six of the past seven years, partly because of drought. The consequent food price increases will hurt the poor, particularly in the undeveloped countries, partly so Americans have slightly cheaper fuel for their
SUV and the ethanol producers make a hearty profit. The U.N. Millennium Development
Goal of reducing by half the proportion of people suffering from hunger by 2015 is now failing as the number who are hungry edges upward, and it could collapse completely in the face of the food-for-cars onslaught. This is just one example of a predator preying.
3784
‘Fighting the Corporate Theft of Our Water.By Tara Lohan, April 25, 2007. The
Bush administration is helping multinationals buy U.S. municipal water systems, putting our most important resource in the hands of corporations with no public accountability.’
This is becoming all too common as businesses go out of their way to make money, regardless of the consequences, which they socialize.
3785
There are signs of some businesses being ahead of governments in addressing the issue of social and environmental responsibility. This is clearly a slight, belated response in recognition of how consumptive society is self-destructive, so impacting on their profitability. It does not entail recognition of entropic growth.
3787
It is ironical that a reduction in the energy available to industrialized society may actually be beneficial in the long run as it would promote power down. The most compelling reason to reject increased nuclear power is that it would only increase the severity of the coming crash. It would tend to inhibit the facing up to reality that the population has to decrease. The same applies to the renewable industrial energy proposals. They will just exacerbate the industrial energy usage that accentuated the holistic predicament that there are too many people consuming too many natural resources.
3788 http://environment. newscientist. com/article/ mg19425983. 700.html? DCMP=NLC- nletter&nsref= mg19425983. 700
"This thing has immense potential for social and human destruction. " ’Startling words -
756

but spoken by the father of the Green Revolution, Nobel laureate Norman Borlaug, they are not easily dismissed. An infection is coming, and almost no one has heard about it.
This infection isn't going to give you flu, or TB. In fact, it isn't interested in you at all. It is after the wheat plants that feed more people than any other single food source on the planet. And because of cutbacks in international research, we aren't prepared. The famines that were banished by the advent of disease-resistant crops in the Green
Revolution of the 1960s could return, Borlaug told New Scientist. The disease is Ug99, a virulent strain of black stem rust fungus (Puccinia graminis), discovered in Uganda in
1999. Since the Green Revolution, farmers everywhere have grown wheat varieties that resist stem rust, but Ug99 has evolved to take advantage of those varieties, and almost no wheat crops anywhere are resistant to it.’ This is another significant example of where human attempts to modify natural processes are showing strong signs of being counter-productive – with potentially devastating consequences.
3789
Http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/04/us/04drought.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
‘An Arid West No Longer Waits for Rain’ Jim Wilson/The New York Times by
RANDAL C. ARCHIBOLD and KIRK JOHNSON, April 4, 2007. A Western drought that began in 1999 has continued after the respite of a couple of wet years that now feel like a cruel tease. But this time people in the driest states are not just scanning the skies and hoping for rescue. Some $2.5 billion in water projects are planned or under way in four states, the biggest expansion in the West’s quest for water in decades.’ This article provides a resume on water problems in the seven western U.S. states and what is being done to try to ameliorate them in the face of population growth and business as usual. It is a classic case of striving to cope when the regional entropic growth means a paucity of natural bounty. The impact of declining industrial energy does not seem to have entered into the discussions.
3790
climate change could well be a major factor in this reduction but it most unlikely to be the only significant one.
757

3791 Appreciation of this inevitability would doubtless stimulate the search for humanitarian means of facilitating the decline in the human population. It really is the second greatest challenge for society to face. The greatest challenge is to face up to what
Dependence on Nature Law implies. The current emphasis on energy security and mitigation of climate change are like chasing after fool’s gold. The World’s Energy
Future [Still] Belongs in Space by Dr. Gerard K. O’Neill
Solar Power Satellites are a solution to both global energy needs and to the greenhouse gas problem. The primary obstacle is the enormous lift costs. A cheaper source of construction materials than Earth must be found.
Editor’s note: Published more than 15 years ago, this essay is even more true and urgent today, and guides the philosophy and actions of Space Studies Institute
This article illustrates a common mistake in addressing the situation of civilization. I will not speculate on the technical merits of the solar power satellites. I will, however, comment on value of providing vast amounts of industrial energy, the objective with
SPS. That will do nothing to inhibit one basis predicament, over population so the associated predicaments of devastation of the environment. It will do nothing to alleviate the predicament of scarcity of the many other exhaustible raw materials we mine. In fact it will make it worse by fostering a higher rate of usage of these materials because it does nothing to reduce consumptionitis. SPS may have realistic potential to help power a benign civilization only if it carried out in conjunction with rational tacking of the other predicaments.
3792
Cars, airliners and container ships are endangered ‘species’!
3793
Cities will be the main casualties as they are predators so will tend to cannibalize as natural resources become scarce.
3794 They will no longer have the need for McMansions to house all their stuff!
3795 Those in the U.S. seem to be fostering a speculative bubble that could well lead to the
Greater Depression when it bursts. The various consequences will spread rapidly through the developed and developing regions.
758

3796
Primarily for the declining natural resources, prophesized by Michael T. Klare in
‘Resource Wars: the New Landscape of Global Conflict’. This tendency is likely to be exacerbated by climate change. ’Climate wars threaten billions. More than 100 countries face political chaos and mass migration in global warming catastrophe’ by Robin McKie, science editor The Observer, November 4 2007 http://tinyurl. com/28zyft
’A total of 46 nations and 2.7 billion people are now at high risk of being overwhelmed by armed conflict and war because of climate change. A further 56 countries face political destabilisation, affecting another 1.2 billion individuals.’ This article paints a grim, but realistic, picture of what is quite likely to happen. It does not, however, point out that the basic problem is that there are too many people competing for the natural resources that are being affected by climate change.
3798
Political and business leaders have lauded Oz’s few abundant natural resources for ages and are now having to face up to their neglect of the lack of the most basic natural resources.
3799
The tyranny of distance will hit hard as scarcity of cheap fuels hit land, sea and air transport.
3800 In their air-conditioned offices in the capital cities
3801 There is an irrational move towards a means of reducing emissions while enabling the growth in energy demand. Reducing emissions is undoubtedly politically wise but is practically useless in mitigating climate change as Australia’s emissions are a negligible proportion of the global total.
3803
As stated in the Dependence on Nature Law
3805
March 2, 2004-4
Copyright © 2004 Earth Policy Institute
‘THE SIXTH GREAT EXTINCTION: A Status Report ‘ by Janet Larsen. This article mentions the previous five mass extinctions with their natural causes and then notes the evidence that human activities are having consequences that could well be leading to the sixth mass extinction.
759

3806
Which is orders slower than the rate at which industrial society has perturbed the ecosystem in recent centuries.
3808
It is ironical that there is appreciable argument about the relevance of econometric modeling to the predication of economic trends. Economists and their servants have this single-minded view of the importance of profit without any regard to its impact of the life-support system and future consequences of ignoring these fundamentals.
3809
‘Hey, wake up. Economic growth is killing the future. Do something, quickly’
3811
this cannot be regarded as a natural law as it is dealing with intangibles rather than what really happens.
3812
But it does not always work. There is no purpose in my demanding an apricot from my tree out of season. Future generations will not be able to demand vast amounts of oil when the known reserves are depleted.
3813
Even when there is no effective alternative
3814 http://www.kitco.com/ind/Laird/feb222007.html
‘First Inflation then Deflation? – Financial Crash’ By Chris Laird, February 22, 2007
T
This is one of a number of articles by financial commentators that accent the bubble nature of the global financial scene due to the competitive money environment. They are fascinating because they speculate on the global play of money managers without any reference to the substantive reality that the natural bounty is declining. Do they really believe that the declining supply of fossil fuels and food, the generation of irrevocable exacerbating wastes, the impact of climate change and environmental devastation will not affect the financial scene. No doubt these commentators believe they are immune to these worries of the proletariat.
3815
It is like the carburetor on a car engine. It controls the flow without recognizing that the tank is emptying and the exhaust is polluting.
760

3817 The current Chinese economy is an extreme example of strong economic growth coupled with devastating destruction of the environment and degradation of many of the poorest of society.
3819 http://www.forbes.com/free_forbes/2005/1031/122.html
Insights ‘Thermodynamics and Money’ by Peter Huber, 10.31.05. One of the advantages of doing research is that you have to examine pieces that appear to be relevant to the topic yet they turn out to be so off base that you have to laugh. I suppose Huber can be excused for not understanding certain basic physics because he took out a law degree but he also did mechanical engineering. He quotes ERoEI but using his own definition which conflicts with the common one. He compares that abstraction, money, with the physical reality, energy. He certainly is not aware of the fact that energy invariably ends up as true waste heat when used while money is created on the whims of financial gurus. He lampoons Hubbert who was one of the first to point out the likely impact on economics because oil and other raw materials are exhaustible.
3820
Money is nothing unless the source, the *thing* that the money, barter mechanism represents, has real value to give to the one who accepts the money in exchange for something else of tangible value. When *money* was turned to enforce universal and complete ignorance and compulsion, became something other than a way of fair trading commodities of need between willing and informed traders, we created economic disaster."
3821 for them
3822
for the prols and the ecosystem
3823 as forgotten waste after limited useless symbolism
3824 remember that society still believes it has a right to draw down on natural capital, even though exhaustion (particularly oil) is neigh.
3825
Those symbols of status, the executive jets, the luxurious yachts, the McMansions, will be liabilities very few can afford.
3827 It has no substance as opposed to the material basis of all operations of the ecosystem.
761

3829
‘The Last Empire: China's Pollution Problem Goes Global’ by Jacques Leslie,
December 10, 2007 http://www.motherjo nes.com/news/ feature/2008/ 01/the-last- empire.html
This article provides a picture of what economic growth is doing to China’s and its neighbors’ environment. The impact of pollution is terrifying in its implications for the future health of the globe. There is good reason to believe that its WA is decreasing rapidly despite the hype about its ‘progress’.
3831
Most of the world's people are assaulted daily by commercialism and toxicity as an extension of capitalistic exploitation. When the effects of runaway technology are seen as an assault on nature and that they isolate humans into being consumers, there will be a revolution called the Earthly Revolution here. A culture change to living with nature will develop, belatedly, but emanate most likely amongst the disillusioned middle classes.
3832
‘The End Of The World As We Know It’, by Immanuel Wallerstein, former president of the American Sociological Association. ‘He talks about it in terms of complexity theory - that historical systems, like all systems, have finite lives and after a long development move far from equilibrium and reach the point of bifurcation and demise, where small inputs have large outputs and the outcome is unpredictable. Capitalism has hit this point.’ This comment on Wallerstein’s generally very sound views sums the typically anthropocentric attitude of examining the activities of society without consideration of the impact on the operation of the ecosystem. Consideration of the eco cost involved would add substantially to his arguments, especially the fact that natural capital has been freely drawn down.
3833 Which means that it will become increasingly difficult to extract the natural resources needed for maintenance and adaptation of the Body.
3834
The turning
Sep
From The
20th
Economist print point
2007 edition
762

http://www.economis t.com/finance/ displaystory. cfm?story_ id=9831159
’Does the latest financial crisis signal the end of a golden age of stable growth?’ The current volatility in the global financial market is examined closely.
It questions whether that stability can continue. It makes no mention of the fact that this growth has entailed using up more of the declining natural resources and doing more damage to the ecosystem. It therefore ignores the fact that the growth in using these resources cannot continue. How can meaningful growth of the monetary resources continue? It cannot. The worth of the easy credit being dispensed by the central banks will crash.
3835
Almost everything society actually does or uses contributes to global and local entropic growth because they entail irreversible lifed operations.
3836
With its foundations crumbling
3837
The Consequence Axiom will help them to wise up.
3839 THE GREAT TRANSFORMATION, Karl Polanyi; Beacon, 1957; http://www.amazon. com/exec/ obidos/ASIN/ 0807056790
The origins of the cataclysm lay in the utopian endeavor of economic liberalism to set up a self-regulating market system." But if the breakdown of our civilization was timed by the failure of world economy, it was certainly not caused by it. Its origins lay more than a hundred years back in that social and technological upheaval from which the idea of a self-regulating market sprang in Western Europe. The end of this venture has come in our time; it closes a distinct stage in the history of industrial civilization.
3840
Who gain materially from economic growth because they are able to externalize the eco costs. ‘Toxic waste left in wake of oil sands extraction’ December 3, 2006, By
GERALD JAMENKO Special to http://www.post- trib.com/ news/158395, oilsandside. article the Post-Tribune
763

provides information of just one example of what corporations do unless regulated or otherwise made responsible for the damage to the ecosystem of their activities.
3841
There is emerging understanding of how misleading GDP is, with China leading the way. However, there is very little action underway to correct this delusion.
3842
With wasteful production being regarded as a positive!
3843
The perfunctory regulations coming into effect now in some regions indicates the beginnings of the realization of what has gone wrong.
3844
That is the delusion propaganda continues to sell, with the aid of most of the media.
Most reasonably well off people continue to eagerly buy it.
3845
They have been conditioned to believe that economic growth is a ‘good’ and very few of them have sufficient background to understand the technical details of the emerging predicaments. They certainly do not have the time and inclination to work on changing their mindset.
3846
It is unfortunate that there are a variety of factors that ensure the popular media foster consumption at any price and inhibit any dose of realism.
3847 Listed in Chapter: Myths, misperceptions and realities
3849 China, Japan, Gulf States, India, Korea.
3850 Effectively these countries are providing Americans with goods on paper credit. They are trading real assets for abstractions whose value may turn out to be illusionary.
3851 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/f2f3a8a8-0f12-11dc-b444-000b5df10621.html
‘Kuwait split raises questions over longevity of the dollar’ By Jim Grant Published in
Financial Times: May 31 2007. The investment of producing countries in USD are discussed in this article. Kuwait is seen as one of those countries moving away from the
USD.
3852 The Americans are just ‘passing the buck’ for the destruction of the ecosystem.
764

3853 The producing countries do this because it aids their economic growth, so material standard of living. That is, they believe in the conventional paradigm. They are unaware of what this is doing for their future.
3854
To temporarily satisfy consumptionism of Americans
3856
‘The End of Dollar Hegemony, Part I’ The Daily Reckoning, London, England
Thursday, May 31, 2007. ‘The curse of living in interesting times...all paper money ends up as decoration.’ The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: In a speech before the U.S. House of Representatives, Congressman Ron Paul stated that the United States' dollar dominance is coming to an end...and when this paper money runs out, wealth and political stability is lost.’ This gives fascinating insight into manipulation of the financial scene over centuries. It makes no comment on how these money games have enabled the rapid consumption of exhaustible natural resources to provide the energy slaves that have enabled the construction of the foundations of modern society without allowing for the long-term maintenance. That is, it is an inherently unsustainable process.
3858
they do their best to ensure the forces act in their direction, regardless of the consequences.
3859 They do tend to be more proactive than governments because they aim to make profitable investments. There has been quite a pronounced swing by business to gain from GHG emissions trading. They now tend to see climate change as being a reality to factor into their strategy.
3860
They do not take responsibility for any deleterious effects of their operations unless forced to by regulation or they are seen to become profitable opportunities.
3861
Often at the expense of those with a social conscience.
3862
The smart business people with a moralistic outlook will recognize emerging opportunities as the economic scene changes to take account of the draw down of the natural bounty. They will be in the forefront of a depressingly slow reaction to reality.
Most, however, will still believe in the Ponzi wealth illusion.
3863
The demand for many luxury items will plummet when a more realistic financial scene makes them liabilities rather than assets. But that belated reaction will not aid the power down significantly.
765

3865 The emerging Chinese and Indian middle classes are increasing the global demand rapidly, so hastening the collapse, unknowingly to them and most of the business world.
3866
International tourism probably heads the list of vulnerable activities.
3867
Many airline pilots in the U.S. have already had to face the harsh reality of losing their jobs and some of their entitlements.
3868
Loss of their jobs will exacerbate the effect of inflation on their savings and entitlements.
3869
They will struggle to adjust to the reality because their mindset is fixated on imaginary wealth generation.
3871
Even though the real eco cost is not taken into account. That is, the acceleration of entropic growth is not on the screen.
3872
There is increasing recognition in informed circles that the depletion of the exhaustible stocks of oil has not been costed realistically. Economists continue to be blinded by the conventional paradigm.
3873
The current boom in the commodities markets is put down by many analysts to the demand growth from China in particular. The emerging signs of supply problems is not given the same prominence.
3875 This is a global problem stemming largely from cities. This article gives a graphic account of just one example. ‘Toxic waste litters desert Indian reservation. Rampant dumping in Thermal has gone on for years, and pupils breathe tainted air. Government can't yet stamp it out.’ By David Kelly, Times Staff Writer, June 2, 2007 http://tinyurl. com/yp26q6
3876
Who almost invariably does not consider the eco cost.
3877
By fiscal measures, like taxation, augmenting growing people power.
3878
Sustenance, shelter, education, care, recreation and relaxation.
3879
This may seem to you to be a pious dream as you think of the obscene salaries of the chief plunderers. But this trend will develop as the realities start to hit harder. Cuba gives some indication of what will increasingly happen.
3881
The U.S. is the prime example of this. The manufacturing industry has declined with many goods being imported, often from China. The service industry has blossomed at all
766

levels. It is almost as though people are looking for something useful to do now that their material needs have been largely sated.
3882
And pay
3883
especially as financial advisors commanding fat fees!
3884
Especially food
3885
money is not a good substitute for fertile soil, wholesome food, potable water, suitable clothing and shelter, health care, education. Money can only buy these essentials when they are available.
3887
Many are deluded about their entitlements because they have not really made a worthwhile contribution to the actual operation of society but that does not mean they will readily accept the devaluation of the financial value.
3889
One of the pernicious aspect of economics is that it takes the view that scarcity of natural resources will cause a price increase that will tend to rebalance supply and demand. This makes no allowance for that fact that natural capital is being drawn down!
It is relying on a biased market signal to promote undertaking belated action. It is now too late in some ‘advanced’ countries!
3890 It will only been possible for the most rapacious while they are still able to get more than their fair share.
3891 Capitalism has proven to be the most successful means of encouraging this societal suicide.
3892 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6624395.stm
‘Rwanda's underwater powerhouse’ By Adam Mynott, BBC News, Rwanda
This article provides some detail about how methane could be obtained from the bottom of Lake Kivu. There is a strong possibility that it would help Rwanda’s economy by providing another source of industrial energy. It would add to Rwanda’s natural bounty.
It would not, however, make a significant contribution to easing the global economic decline.
767

3893 Cuba is probably the most noteworthy exception. There are many criticisms of the low material standard of living by those who do not appreciate that it is what the ecosystem can afford and it meets basic needs very well.
3894
it matters little to them if useless, wasteful stuff is being supplied so long as they count in that farcical dollar figure.
3895
and, of course, demand for stuff will remain high so long as cheap energy slaves are available.
3896
Oil is likely to hit the hardest, especially in the poorer countries.
3897
And the demise of those industries that do not produce worthwhile goods and services
3899
Cuba is now operating along lines similar to what is proposed here. It was forced by circumstances to adjust to a simpler life style. ‘THE SIMPLER WAY: WORKING FOR
TRANSITION FROM CONSUMER SOCIETY TO A SIMPLER, MORE
COOPERATIVE, JUST AND ECOLOGICALLY SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY.’ By Ted
(F.E.)Trainer documents a sound proposal along these lines.
3900
With the Earthly Revolution under way.
3901
TRANSITION TOWN TOTNES is a program in Totnes, Devon that has community aims along these lines. There are doubtless quite a few similar communities world wide.
The article below discusses the basis for this type of community and where it is being examined. ‘Independence from the Corporate Global Economy’ http://yesmagazine. org/article. asp?ID=1545
The old story says we have to depend on big corporations. The new story tells us we can earn a livelihood, gain freedom, and build community through cooperation. by Ethan Miller, YES! Magazine (Winter 2007 Issue) Go Local!
3902 All constructions, goods and services are costed in ecos. High cost items would have to be worthwhile or durable to be competitive.
768

3903 There are many similarities in this situation to how some intentional communities operate today. However, there are some major differences in principle and in the measures used to determine the operations.
3904
For example, the decision to build a skyscraper would result in year-by-year estimates of the eco cost of natural resources used for construction, servicing, maintenance and eventual demolition. It would include the implied eco cost of those involved in this activity. These estimates would be updated each year.
3905
A balance between horizontal and vertical collectivism to encourage individual contribution. This would encourage meritocracy but not elitism.
3906
This, of course, would mean a very different culture to what is in place in most global communities today.
3907
The government would annually provide a realistic, updated estimate of the remaining capital. It would take into account the draw down in the past year and include adjustments for stocks of food and water, new mineral discoveries, effective substitution for scarce materials, means of reducing waste, beneficial adjustments to biodiversity and geodiversity.
3908 There would be awareness that wasteful use now was jeopardizing the prospects for future generations.
3909 The community would be emulating nature in being self-regulating.
3910
The biggest change in outlook is the repudiation of the discount rate of the old-time economists. That essentially said it was better to spend a dollar now (use the resources) because future generations will have more dollars. It was based on the fallacious argument that resources would grow when, in actual fact, they will inevitably decline.
The view is now taken that resources used now are robbing future generations of their fair share.
3911
there would have been a major cultural change as the community has to recognize the need to equitably share the inheritance. This would be encouraged by the rates of pay being associated with the real worth of the goods and services provided to the community. For example, those engaged in providing food would be well paid, especially if they had expertise facilitating the provision. Cuba has shown how this works.
769

3912 As determined by their expending power.
3913
The current growth mentality would have been replaced by a pride in community conservation. Frugality would be the dominant paradigm.
3914
Gross Domestic Decline, in association with GDP which is a measure of the goods and services produced by using the natural bounty measured in GDD.
3915
Because of the benevolence of nature!
3916
The entropy is a true measure of the state of the ecosystem. Degradation and decimation of the system is indicated by entropic growth.
3918
no doubt estimates of the reserves already exist but they may need consolidation and assessment of their respective worth. Some of the resources, like oil, may have to be imported but the community would still cost it according to its real worth to them.
3919
consolidation of existing information on these issues may be needed for a realistic assessment. Love Canal (Wikipedia) is one well-documented case (of toxic waste) of major global problems that have not received the attention warranted. Essential remedial action will consume much of the remaining natural bounty.
3920 this is in accord with Heinberg’s Axiom 4 for sustainability. The demand would be adjusted by the eco cost.
3921 from the January 29, 2008 edition - http://www.csmonito r.com/2008/ 0129/p13s01- bogn.html
How the mountains of Appalachia disappear
Michael Shnayerson profiles one valley's battle against mountaintop mining.
By Amanda Paulson
For a practice that has drastically changed the topography of
Appalachia, most Americans – even those who consider themselves environmentalists – know surprisingly little about mountaintop mining. The technique, in which the top of a mountain is literally blasted off and dumped into the surrounding valleys to unearth the valuable coal underneath, has leveled mountain peaks, destroyed more than 1.5 million acres of hardwood forest, and buried more than 700 miles of streams.
3922 By the community at large.
3923 this would include such items as the cost of reducing emissions from existing plants together with the cost of measures to adapt to the consequences of climate change
770

3924 most chemical pollutants associated with commercial products would have been eliminated.
3925 http://www.unece.org/press/pr2007/07tim_p01e.htm
’Can Europe's forests satisfy the increasing demand for raw material and energy under sustainable forest management? Joint press release issued with the Liaison Unit Warsaw of the Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forests in Europe (MCPFE) and the
Confederation of European Paper Industries (CEPI).’ This type of discussion can lead to a realistic policy so long as all the eco costs are taken into account.
3926
taking into account the impact on soil fertility
3927
this can vary year by year due to the weather. This is in accord with Heinberg’s
Axiom 3 for sustainability.
3928
a natural disaster like a flood would doubtless entail additional eco costs
3929
with accent on society operating within the ecosystem
3930
this would differ from the conventional net energy analysis by taking into account all eco costs. It would account for any draw down of natural capital and the costs associated with the pollution, including the contribution to climate change.
3931 this could well entail using carbon credits
3932 This type of debate is currently taking place in many countries. It would be more objective in the hypothetical community because of a sounder basis for the respective weightings.
3933 Like the orientation of homes to make best use of sunlight
3934
From Science in Society: Biofuels: Biodevastation, Hunger & False Carbon Credits
’Europe’s thirst for biofuels is fuelling deforestation and food price hikes, exacerbated by a false accounting system that awards carbon credits to the carbon profligate nations. A mandatory certification scheme for biofuels is needed to protect the earth’s most sensitive forest ecosystems, to stabilise climate and to safeguard our food security.’ This article contributes to the discussion of how worthwhile biofuels can be in the developing global
771

economy. It does not recognize that the global economy is bound to go into decline yet it does make some points relevant to the role of biofuels. It essentially spells out that biofuels have a low WoEC where as using the plants to provide food has a high WoEC.
3935
The biofuels agreement signed by Brazil and the United States on Friday marks an important milestone in the development of a global biofuels market, according to energy experts with the Worldwatch Institute. Worldwatch biofuels expert Suzanne Hunt said that "while this is an exciting announcement, more emphasis needs to be put on ensuring that the potential development benefits are realized and that environmental harms are avoided. It is essential that the biofuels industry be developed in ways that spread the economic benefits as widely as possible, rather than replicating the disastrous concentration of wealth that has marked the petroleum industry in countries such as
Nigeria and Saudi Arabia." Most views on biofuels development imply a realistic continuing need for transportation fuels. They thereby discourage tackling the fuel conservation approach and the dangers of fuel v food. The ethanol industry in Brazil is seeing the concentration of wealth that World Watch warns against.
3937
The Corporate Responsibility Index (CRI) was developed in Britain and is also being adopted in Australia. It is designed to assist businesses develop, measure and communicate best practice in corporate responsibility. Our hypothetical businesses would have similar objectives.
3938 Labor costs would reflect the eco costs of the individuals plus the costs of their expertise and skill in adding real worth to the operation of the community.
3939
The Hidden Giants of World Business: New Global300 List Reveals The Major
Member-Owned Businesses Worldwide Submitted by Garry Cronan on Sat, 28/10/2006
The full importance of the world's major co-operatives and mutually owned businesses -- successful large-scale enterprises with social and ethical principles at the heart of their operations -- for the first time became clear with the launch in Lyon, France on
Wednesday October 25th of the new http://global300. coop ranking. Global 300, an initiative from the International Co-operative Alliance, reveals the names of the major
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member-owned businesses which between them share a turnover of around 1 trillion
USD -- the equivalent of the GDP of 10th largest economy in the world. "Because co-ops and mutuals normally don't feature on the world's stock markets or in business analysts' studies it's been too easy in the past to overlook their achievements, " says ICA President
Ivano Barberini. "global300.coop reveals the invisible giants of the world economy, highly successful businesses which nevertheless don't exist just to make money."
3940
‘Capitalism 3.0 A Guide to Reclaiming the Commons’ by Peter Barnes provides an indication of the environment in which these businesses would need to operate.
3941
This would include the cost of dealing with an item when its useful life is finished. It would doubtless lead to refurbishment in many cases.
3942
Thus essential goods and services would not be taxed but luxuries would.
3943
Taxation would be moderately progressive with the objective of encouraging balance.
3944
SUBSIDIZING CLIMATE CHANGE http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/Seg/PB2ch04_ss7.htm
Lester R. Brown. ‘Each year the world’s taxpayers provide an estimated $700 billion of subsidies for environmentally destructive activities, such as fossil fuel burning, over pumping aquifers, clear cutting forests, and over fishing. An Earth Council study,
Subsidizing Unsustainable Development, observes that “there is something unbelievable about the world spending hundreds of billions of dollars annually to subsidize its own destruction.” This article details some countries where subsidies are being increased and some where they are being reduced. It notes where subsidies can be warranted but many cases where there is no rational justification. Its main emphasis is on the effect on greenhouse gas emissions. Examinations to determine where subsidies are warranted to foster development that will provide real worth for the eco cost entailed should become more common.
3945
They would not have the expending power.
3946
That, of course, implies an almost unbelieveable cultural change
3950
Power, water, sewerage, public transport.
773

3952 Limited discretionary expending power
3953
It would be a community without many energy slaves! Electricity and fuels would be regarded as worthwhile aids in limited circumstances.
3954
With meat consumption being low because of its eco cost.
3955
With the accent on worth for eco cost, taking into account local factors like water availability and the fertility of the soil. Knowledge of permaculture and organic farming would be common.
3956
These would include permaculture, repairing of goods, basic principles of healthy practices and contributions to communal social activities.
3957
The culture emphasizes that those who choose to have children must accept the responsibility to support them by making additional contributions to the operation of the community, possibly through their skills.
3958
Including those promoting consumption. Those that foster activities would be encouraged.
3959
Beyond Cynicism, From the World Socialist Movement website: http://www.worldsoc ialism.org/ index.php
shows a movement towards the socialism that is bound to pick up steam during the power down. The moves in Venezuela and Bolivia to follow the Cuba example show signs of repelling capitalism even without understanding what has already been done to the natural bounty. It is, however, a move in the right direction.
3960
Those that can contribute appreciably to food production would be valued, as in
Cuba.
3961
Food, water, clothing, shelter, care and education.
3962
But not in the excessive fashion so common in most current communities.
3963
There would be no demand for marketing skills and the like because consumers would be very choosy.
3964
But artists, composers and the like would, as ever, be valued for their contributions to community culture.
3966
This article addresses a crucial issue that needs to be addressed to save as much as we can from the catabolic collapse. ‘Technological Triage’
774

http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2007/01/technological-triage.html
The coming of deindustrial society will require us to approach technology in much the same way. Technological triage requires more complex judgments than the battlefield variety, however. Not all technologies are of equal value for human survival; it won’t do us any good to preserve video game technology, let’s say, if by doing so we lose the ability to grow food. Some technologies necessarily depend on other technologies— firearms, for example, presuppose a certain level of metalworking ability. Finally, technological triage involves four categories, not three. Alongside technologies that can’t be saved no matter what we do, technologies that are certain to be saved even if we do nothing, and technologies that will be saved if we act and lost if we do not, there are technologies that have gone out of existence but could be brought back and put into use if action is taken now.
3967
Such fields as biomimicry could play a part in development of worthwhile substitutes for natural processes in meeting some of society’s needs but eco costs will still be incurred.
3969
From those today that have a reasonable degree of balance between regulation and free market. The historical battles from anarchism to communisn to capitalism to anocapitalism indicates that this balance is rare today and most unlikely to grow even under the impetus of the Earthly Revolution.
3970
Via community feedback referendums on issues.
3971
Venezuela under Chavez is aiming to emulate Cuba but they have a problem prioritizing an issue. They are looking at installing a pipeline to assist in the exportation of their major natural resource, oil. But this raises some major environmental impact predicaments. Understanding of the Consequence Axiom would enable them to look at this issue more realistically.
3972
Japan faced this dilemma realistically in the 1500s.
3973
A highly visible bounty run down clock would serve as a continuing reminder.
3974
There would be widespread recognition, and appreciation, of the wonders of nature.
775

3976 Scientists Thuman and Bennet have highlighted "prerequisites for survival," needs that must be met in order for a society to continue:

Every society must be able to answer the basic biological needs of its members: food, drink, shelter, and medical care.

Every society must provide for the production and distribution of goods and services (perhaps through a division of labor, rules concerning property and trade, or ideas about the role of work).

Every society must provide for the reproduction of new members and consider laws and issues related to reproduction (regulation, marriageable age, number of children, and so on).

Every society must provide for the training (education, apprenticeship, passing on of values) of an individual so that he or she can become a functioning adult in the society.

Every society must provide for the maintenance of internal and external order
(laws, courts, police, wars, diplomacy).

Every society must provide meaning and motivation to its members.
There would be no quibbles about the prerequisites but the availability of the natural bounty needed is not raised.
3977
This would doubtless be based on some of the principles espoused by Henry George over a hundred years ago.
3978
Pride in achieving would have to supplant financial reward to a large extent.
3979 This would replace the existing embracing of technology for its own sake.
3981 The transportation eco costs could limit this trade to absolutely essential items. It is ironical that cheap fuels have maladjusted this criterion in recent centuries. Wasteful trading is a malady that is growing exponentially.
3982 Cities are inherently immutable predators
3984
It would entail an almost inconceivable shift in the mindset of adults, especially amongst those in positions of power. It would require a dramatic shift in the education program from anthropocentricity to ecocentricity. But it is possible amongst the young, especially when they realize their future depends on their appreciation of reality.
776

3985 Inheritance taxing would be aimed at ensuring those who have made a major contribution to the community would be able to leave a moderate legacy.
3987
... Mankind is looking for food not just on this planet but on others. Perhaps the time has now come to put that process into reverse. Instead of controlling the environment for the benefit of the population, maybe we should control the population to ensure the survival of our environment. Sir David Attenborough - The Life of Mammals
3990 http://www.enn.com/today.html?id=12708 ‘Bhutan To Pay for the Climate Sins of
Others. May 04, 2007 — By Simon Denyer, Reuters. THIMPU, Bhutan -- High in the
Himalayas, the isolated mountain kingdom of Bhutan has done more to protect its environment than almost any other country. Forests cover nearly three quarters of its land, and help to absorb the greenhouse gases others emit. Its strict conservation policies help to guard one of the world's top 10 biodiversity hotspots, often to the chagrin of its own farmers. Yet Bhutan could pay a high price for the sins of others -- global warming is a major threat to its fragile ecosystem and the livelihoods of its people.’ This is one example of a community doing its best to live with nature but having to suffer the consequences of the malfeasance of the selfish and blind in other communities.
3991
The EU are embracing measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while the U.S. and China resist this because it will hurt their economies.
3992
Money provides a very good example of a reinforcing feedback system at work. The more you have the more you will get. It has been a very powerful motivating force in society. It is most unlikely to lose its power even as the decline hits hard.
3994
The waters of Ganges serves both India and Bangladesh, but not necessarily equitably.
3995 Saudi Arabian importation of wheat eases the strain on their very limited water resources.
3996 They are enthralled with ‘progress’
3998
‘The Nature of Cities’ By Jason Godesky http://anthropik.com/2007/09/the-nature-of-cities/
’The word civilization comes from the Latin civis, meaning "city." This curous
777

epiphenomenon of civilization gives us as good a definition for civilization as we could ask for; etymologically and anthropologically, "civilization" means a culture of cities.
Civilizations certainly count as complex societies, but we can imagine other kinds of complex societies which, whether or not they prove tenable in reality, would still fail to meet the criteria of civilization, chiefly because they would also lack cities, and all that goes with them. So what do we mean by a "city," and what makes it so uniquely unsustainable?’
This article presents a realistic view of the role of cities in civilization. It notes that for all their social advantages they are ecological parasites. It considers how this may be sustainable in the future by scaling down, without considering how that would be achieved. What would happen to the existing, massive infrastructure. It also, as in most commentaries, does not factor in the fact that the major sources of the energy that drives civilization are exhaustible. Thus, the future envisaged in this article is just a delusion. It is not sustainable with anything like the population of today.
3999
cities almost invariably harbor luxury
4000
with the migrants changing from contributors to parasites
4001
the way nature is reclaiming the center of Detroit provides a modern example of how natural forces take over when civilization no longer has the power to maintain their corruption. There have been many previous examples, like the Mayan cities, but we have not learnt the lesson due to our arrogance.
4003 So what is the Oil Depletion Protocol? Heinberg sums it up neatly thus, "signatory nations would agree to reduce their oil consumption gradually and uniformly according to a simple formula that works out to being a little less than 3% per year". In essence, oil importing nations agree to reduce their imports and oil exporters undertake to do the same with their exports at an internationally agreed rate. The effect is to reduce the risks inherent in peak oil, developing nations aren't priced out of the markets, the risks of wars are reduced and the oil that remains lasts longer. This could well prove to be a valuable palliative move if it picks up momentum, especially in the U.S.
778

4004 ‘China may face grain shortages in 2010’ China View, 24 January 2007. China faces the possibility of a 4.8 million ton grain shortage in 2010, almost 9 percent of the country's grain consumption, according to the Study Times, a newspaper affiliated to the
Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China.
4005
There seems to be evidence that as global warming becomes of greater concern amongst policy makers more money goes into research of natural phenomenon. This then tends to produce more evidence of changing operations. This reinforcing feedback mechanism tends to obscure the severity of the impact of global warming.
4006
With it moving inexorably from Africa, Asia, South America to the ‘developed’ countries.
4008
I can just see Americans paying such taxes - but the Danes get really useful services instead of mayhem and murder and trillion dollar debt. http://online.wsj.com/article_email/article_print/SB117649781152169507lMyQjAxMDE3NzE2NjQxOTY3Wj.html
‘POWER PLAY: HOW DENMARK PAVED WAY TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCE.
Thirty-Year Plan Uses Wind, Taxes, Pig Fat; Consumers Pay More’. By Leila Abboud provides details on how Denmark has embraced a sound energy saving program with gains far outweighing losses. They are making better use of their natural bounty without sacrificing any quality of living. The biggest gain is that they are most unlikely to have a societal collapse. They have already powered down to a large extent.
4009
SustainLane claims that is their objective but the reality does not match these claims.
4010
The story of the Kinsale Energy Descent Action Plan
< http://www.transitionculture.org/?page_id
4> is an extraordinary one. A mid-thirties
Englishman with a penchant for permaculture and an interest in peak oil moves to rural
Ireland, starts teaching at the local further education college, and ends up writing, with his students, a ground-breaking document: the first timetabled strategy for weaning a town off fossil fuels.
779

4011 This is a good enunciation of the objective. ‘To be sustainable means integrating our economic and social lives into the environment in ways that maintain and enhance it rather than degrade or destroy it. It includes a moral imperative to pass on our natural inheritance not necessarily unchanged, but undiminished in its ability to meet the needs of future generations. Sustainability is thus about finding the balance point among population, consumption, and waste assimilation.’ Unfortunately, the Consequence
Axiom tells us that this admirable objective is not achievable.
4012
They are making contributions to the emerging Communalistic Revolution.
4014 http://www.truthout.org/issues_06/021207EC.shtml
‘Ten Ways to Prepare for a Post-Oil Society ‘ by James Howard Kunstler , 10 February
2007
This article provides a fairly realistic look at some of the measures required in advanced societies, like America. It does not, however, tackle the population issue, the cultural change required or the resources that will be used to modify the specialization and the infrastructure.
4016
‘The Billionaires and How They Made It. Meet the Global Ruling Class’ By JAMES
PETRAS http://www.counterpunch.org/petras03212007.html
This article exposes the epidemic of the ultra rich in a number of countries and the methods they employ – foul and corrupt. Few of them make a contribution to the productivity of their countries (they play financial games) although they do flaunt their rampant consumption.
4017 Economic growth is popular with the electorate because they are unaware of the dire legacy they are supporting with their draw down of the natural bounty. The politicians are not in the position to warn the electorate because if they spell out this message they will be out!
780

4018 http://greatchange.org/ng-essay,great_change.html
has some discussion about the nature of the possible change. It does not, however, reflect on how people will respond to a power down, a lowering of expectations. The emerging Earthly Revolution will help some.
4019
The billions who are battling just to survive have a different role to play. They need to contribute to birth rate reduction.
4021
This will require a remarkable change in attitude by those conditioned to subdue, conquer, subjugate, dominate and exploit the masses as well as nature!
4022 http://www.yesmagaz ine.org/article. asp?ID=1463
‘The Great Turning: From Empire to Earth Community’ by David Korten. This essay describes how Empire has enabled the elite to take control of the operation of societies. It then goes on to note how modern communication provides a means for an egalitarian
Earth Community to develop. It is proposing the move to a much better human society. It does not, however, take into account the practicalities that industrial civilization has already devastated its life support system, what the environment can supply. There are insufficient natural resources remaining to allow a timely and easy power down of the huge population.
4024
Basically, then, there are only two kinds of solutions to the population problem. One is a "birth rate solution," in which we find ways to lower the birth rate. The other is a
"death rate solution," in which ways to raise the death rate - war, famine, pestilence - find us. Paul Ehrlich: The Population Bomb, p. 17
4025
This will slow down the rate of depletion of the natural bounty
4026
there has been appreciable discussion about how this may come about but more action is needed urgently.
4027
It will tend to occur naturally as natural food production displaces the synthetic ones.
4028
To bolster food production with less dependence on fossil fuels.
4030 ‘Resilience implies that the system has the ability to redirect resources from elsewhere within the system to contain and heal the impact of a shock. Crucially, this reallocation must not affect the system's performance in such a way that the reallocation itself acts as a secondary system shock. If the resources are reallocated from a portion of
781

the system that can't function without them, the act of reallocation may become the first event in a breakdown cascade.One definition of an inefficient system is that system operations have more resources available to them than are actually needed to accomplish the tasks. In this case, redirection of resources away from a task will have less of an impact since it is more probable that the task's efficiency can be improved to accommodate the loss. In a very efficient system, all resources are fully utilized. Any redirection of resources is done in a zero-sum context - the task from which the resources are taken can no longer function (or at least can't function as fully). As a result, very efficient systems are much more prone to cascades, as resources are sequentially redirected to try and cope with the breakdown caused by the previous reallocation.’ This type of constructive debate can be expected to have a bigger role as the need for mitigating activities become more apparent.
4031
There are many studies suggesting practical means of doing this rapidly and with little effort, particularly in the industrialized countries. Their popularity is likely to increase rapidly when the decline becomes more apparent to the middle classes.
4032
Peak Coal. The Daily Reckoning posted this article, originally in the Fleet Street
Letter, by Michael Orme, which suggests the price of high energy coal will catch up with oil as Asian demand continues to grow. http://www.dailyrec koning.co. uk/website/ home.html
’The Dirt on Coal ‘By Michael Orme. This article discusses the developing coal supply and demand situation as a consequence of the exploding Asian economies. It does not detail the likely climate change consequences. It presumes business as usual. It is a totally unrealistic view. The author clearly does not understand entropic growth or the consequences of the immutable duality. The article does, however, indicate how vulnerable China, India, South Korea and Vietnam are because of the dependence of their industry on coal.
4033 Geosequestration of carbon dioxide may have an impact in the long term but the situation is likely to continue to be uncertain, primarily because vested interests are slowing down the viscous response mechanism.
782

4034 Marrickville the first Australian council to adopt Oil Depletion
Protocol,12 February 2007
Marrickville Council voted for The Greens proposal to adopt the 'Oil Depletion Protocol' at this weeks council meeting in recognition of the predicament of peak oil and will reduce its oil usage by 3% per year. This is a sign of the slowly growing awareness of the nature of the oil supply predicament.
4035
Externe – Externalities of Energy. A Research Project of the European Commission is a major attempt to realistically cost the externalities, like pollution, in energy production. It includes the impact on public health and on global warming. It is clearly a move in the right direction but is misleading due to its deficiencies and limited scope. It appears to have four major deficiencies. It does not include a costing for the draw down of the natural capital in sourcing the energy. That should logically be fully covered in the internal costs but generally is not. There is no accounting for the disruption of geodiversity that often accompanies the mining or extraction process. In addition, it focuses on the energy that drives the production of goods and the provision of services yet does not tackle the more fundamental issues of water and fertile soil. This could well be because these are not as big a predicament in the EU as in other regions. A more reasoned approach to the energy issue, as here, needs to be factored in with addressing the immigration issue.
4036
LOS ANGELES — Southern California is gambling its future power needs on its constant sunshine, wind and the ability of engineers to effectively harness those and other alternative energy sources. Officials in Pasadena, Anaheim and several other large cities notified the Intermountain Power Agency that they would not be renewing their contracts for cheap, coal-fired power.
4037 There is the emerging danger that the coming advent of nuclear power will be regarded as addressing the holistic problem.
4038
it would be most unfortunate if Jevon’s Paradox were to diminish the impact of these measures
4039
Descending the Oil Peak:, Navigating the Transition from Oil and Natural Gas
Report of the City of Portland, Peak Oil Task Force
783

DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION
January 16, 2007. This provides a good basis for a community working on a reduced demand.
4041
Klare spells out the dangers in ‘Resource Wars’. It entails the use of natural bounty for little worth. Reduced consumption is much more worthwhile.
4042
More realistic prices for oil and gas are likely to lead to some demand destruction
4043
China and India are endeavoring to match the U.S. in ensuring oil supplies.
4045
it is likely that there will be a marked reduction in the demand for meat and fish. The rapidly increasing demand for meat by the Chinese middle class is likely to reverse as trickle up hits.
4046
this will require the relearning of previously proven methods. Cuba has shown how this can be done under duress.
4047
There is irony in the fact that declining fuel may well inhibit the ability of ocean fishers to go after the declining stocks. This is one example of an inherent compensating mechanism
4048 there is little doubt that localization (fostered by the middle classes) will tend to take over from globalization (fostered by the corporations) as transportation costs escalate.
4049 IPCC expects the tropical regions to suffer the most.
4050 ‘Ninety per cent of our perishable vegetables come from our own doorstep, courtesy of a network of 2000 small market gardens clustered around the Austral, Leppington and
Bringelly areas and further north around Richmond. All your Asian veggies come from these little farms and most of your other produce, including snow peas, shallots, tomatoes and herbs. Next question: guess where the state government is planning to build 115,000 new homes. Yep - right on top of about 40 per cent of these market gardens!’ this statement about what is happening near Sydney is by no means atypical of the influence of population growth.
4051
Achim Steiner, executive director of the UN Environment Program, made a seemingly balanced statement on the potential for biofuels. It included comment on the aim of biotechnology to improve the ability to obtain ethanol from biomass. He mentioned the fears that energy crops will consume wildlife habitats and economically
784

productive forests. He pointed out that a question was whether the future is in crops or in second-generation fuels like those possible from termite enzymes. Clearly, the emphasis is on continuing economic growth, fostered by possible technological developments, while giving regard to ecological concerns. This is the common, biased outlook that carries the implication that we can ‘have our cake and eat it too’!
4052 http://blog. fastcompany. com/archives/ 2007/04/03/ africas_newest_ rock_star. html?partner= rss
Africa's Newest Rock Star. In the race for renewable energy, the spotlight is on Africa, with Jatropha Circas quickly becoming the super-crop of choice. ’Jatropha bushes grow across the continent, from Ghana to South Africa, but Africans have never paid much attention to the bush. There hasn't been much use for it. But now that studies have shown that oil from the plant has less carbon emissions than fossil fuel, scientists are looking at the jatropha bush in a new light.’ This article spells out the potential for jatropha to be a source of biofuels, so provide income fro many Africans, but quite possibly at the expense of conventional farming providing that essential, food! This is another emerging example of the fuel v food problem – with the dollars for fuel tipping the balance at this stage.
4054 The current drought is hitting the Murray-Darling Basin so badly that there has been warning of shut-off of irrigation allotments within weeks. This would have a devastating impact on food prices in Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide.
4055 South eastern Australia and south western U.S. are two regions currently trying to comes to terms with this problem.
4057
Many services add to the quality of living without entailing a large eco cost.
4058
price rises will come naturally but stronger measures would be prudent.
4059
Education of the public should go with the price increases. They need to understand that the standard of living needs to drop for the sake of their descendents. They need to understand that they had been deluded by the hype of the ‘leaders’ of society.
785

4060 Encouragement of long lasting goods would help.
4061
AN AUSTRALIAN company that has developed an environmentally friendly system for household waste disposal is close to signing a £2 billion($4.9 billion) contract with
Lancashire and Blackpool councils in Britain. "The idea is to rescue plastic, paper, glass and other recyclables. Then with the organic matter, to use it to produce biogas - a renewable energy source - and turn the rest into compost to be reapplied to the land."
This is an example of sound, emerging technology to provide palliative measures to our waste production society. At best, measures like this will ease the decline a little.
However, they are much better than most of the current waste encouragement measures!
4062
Like sound water supply and waste disposal facilities in cities.
4064
This should be decided on pragmatic grounds rather than financial.
4065
Many freeways seem doomed as carmania expires. While many houses should be replaced because they are so energy inefficient.
4066
Worldwatch Institute ‘Just Released—State of the World 2007: Our Urban Future
Just Released—State of the World 2007: Our Urban Future’ appears superficially plausible but its feasibility is extremely doubtful.
4067 http://verticalfarm.com/index.php
The Vertical Farm Project
This site provides meticulous details of the energy balance of the operation of a proposed urban vertical farm to feed 50000 people. A quick examination suggests that a plausible case has been established that it does not need the provision of energy from an external source for its operation. It does not, however, estimate the eco cost of the industrial energy and materials for the construction of the building and all the equipment. The question then is whether all this eco cost is justified in the saving of land that would otherwise be used in producing the food. It certainly cannot be answered by just obtaining the energy balance as in this study. There are clear logistic and ecological benefits in this concept of urbanizing some food production. It may help to mitigate the existing problem of over population.
786

4069 Marketing and advertising is proving very successful – in fostering the entropic growth that is degrading the ecosystem.
4070
Many goods are being replaced by the latest versions for no sound reason.
4072
Wildfires (bushfires) are a natural occurrence in many regions that are causing increasing concern because of their growth. ‘WORLD FACES MEGAFIRE THREAT –
EXPERT’ By Rob Taylor, Reuters
January 19, 2007. This article provides some detail on the scope of the predicament but little on how its impact can be alleviated. There is no doubt that it is one the symptoms of the malaise of global civilization needing treatment.
4073
It will require more people working in those fields
4074
self-limitation and self-regulation
4075
the city of Melbourne has irreversibly perturbed the ecosystem around Port Phillip
Bay. What remedial measures are worthwhile here is a very relevant question.
4078
These volumes give some insight into what the future may bring. ‘Strangely Like
War: The Global Assault on Forests’ by Derrick Jensen and George Draffan. ‘Shoveling
Fuel For A Runaway Train: Errant Economists, Shameful Spenders and A Plan to Stop
Them All’ by Brian Czech. ‘What Every American Should Know About Who's Really
Running The World: The People, Corporations and Organizations That Control Our
Future’ by Melissa Rossi. ‘Endgame: Volume I: The Problem of Civilization’ by Derrick
Jensen. ‘Endgame: Volume II: Resistance’ by Derrick Jensen. ‘Emergency Food Storage
& Survival Handbook’ by Peggy Layton. ‘Deep Survival: Who Lives, Who Dies and
Why’ by Laurence Gonzales. ‘Going Local: Creating Self-Reliant Communities In A
Global Age’ by Michael Shuman. ‘The Great Turning: From Empire to Earth
Community’ by David C. Korten. ‘Dominion: Can Nature and Culture Co-Exist’ by Niles
Eldredge. ‘Planet of Slums’ by Mike Davis. BILL MCKIBBEN author of "Deep
Economy: the Wealth of Communities and the Durable Future."
4080 The human body is an immensely complex organism that operates sustainably over its lifetime because it has a bewildering array of built in checks and balances and feedback mechanisms. It has self-organization and self-regulation capabilities. The
787

human developed organization, civilization, has become extraordinarily complex without adequate checks and balances. It does not have a self-regulation capability. In fact it has a reinforcing feedback mechanism that encourages both growth and increased complexity and this means drawing down more rapidly on natural resources and further degrading the environment. It is like a cancer. In addition, it becomes more likely that some checks and balance will fail unpredictably with disastrous consequences. It lacks resilience due largely to arrogance.
4081
It continues to believe, for now, that it can largely ignore the fundamentals, including the need for fertile soil and potable water
4082 ‘Man to be living on the Moon from 2024’
Henderson, Science Editor Mark
’Reaching http://www.timesonl for ine.co.uk/ article/0, the
,3-2489018,
Moon’
00.html
Human beings are to go back to the Moon within the next 15 years and this time they will stay, according to ambitious plans to establish a lunar base announced by NASA.
4083 What else can explain how thinking humans are so obsessed with destroying the
Body of their civilization and devastating its host, Gaia.
4084
The proactive bodies that have been mentioned are but a whisper. It is good that some prominent people are beginning to speak out. 'WE'RE LIVING ON BORROWED
TIME', CLAIMS CHARLES This Is London, December 6, 2006. In a forthright speech in front of leading figures, including Prime Minister, Tony Blair, the Prince said: 'We are consuming the resources of our planet at such a rate that we are, in effect, living off credit and living on borrowed time.’ Al Gore and Mikhail Gorborchev are also having their say.
They do not, however, address the primary predicament, over population. Nevertheless, they are waking a few of the global community out of their dream world.
4085
And that does not include politicians, most business people, the popular media and most people.
788

4086
‘For too long have we supposed that technology would solve the "population problem." It won't. I first became fully aware of this hard truth when I wrote my essay
"The Tragedy of the commons," ... Never have I found anything so difficult to work into shape. I wrote at least seven significantly different versions before resting content with this one, ... . It was obvious that the internal resistance to what I found myself saying was terrific. As a scientist I wanted to find a scientific solution; but reason inexorably led me to conclude that the population problem could not possibly be solved without repudiating certain ethical beliefs and altering some of the political and economic arrangements of contemporary society.’ Garrett Hardin: Preface of "Exploring New Ethics for Survival"
4087
And there is no real attempt being made to tackle the predicament in a humanitarian fashion despite earnest discussions by demographers. There seems to be an entrenched desire for the predicament to go away – despite the reality that there is not the bounty left to support 6 billion, let alone the 9 billion that is being predicted for mid century.
4088
Underneath all the rhetoric about the current dire comment on the financial market is the simple fact that the creation of easy credit has enabled an accelerated rate of material consumption so speeding up the rate of depletion of natural bounty capital even as its level gets low. It is like putting the foot down on the accelerator as the tank nears empty.
4089
This does not inherently impact on entropic growth but it does encourage unnecessary consumption, so has an indirect effect. There is reason to believe that the global financial market has exploded to such an extent that it is on the edge of chaos. It could bust at any time now and that would have the effect of reducing the demand for goods and services. This would reduce the eco cost, so the rate of draw down of the bounty. But many people would suffer by this correction. And it would be but a blip on the irreversible entropic growth
4090
The Chinese manufacturing boom is having an appreciable impact on the consumption of many global resources while also exacerbating water, pollution, emission, health and desertification predicaments. The vast amount of cheap stuff they produce therefore comes at a horrendous eco cost. China could well have surpassed
America in their contribution to entropic growth even though they import a lot of the commodities they use.
789

4091 SCIENTISTS BAFFLED BY DECLINE IN WATER LEVELS OF UPPER GREAT
LAKES Canada and the United States are launching a $17.5-million study to determine why water levels in the upper Great Lakes have declined to near-record lows. It shows that we still have a lot to learn about how nature operates. This is just one example of noticeable environmental changes that could be caused by climate change. I expect that a comprehensive list of the multitude of possible signs of climate change already exists.
The IPCC report probably contains a lot of this detail.
4092
Energy [R]evolution is a report developed by Greenpeace and the European
Renewable Energy Council (EREC) "in conjunction with specialists from the Institute of
Technical Thermodynamics at the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) and more than 30 scientists and engineers from universities, institutes and the renewable energy industry around the world." Here's the summary: Renewable energy, combined with efficiencies from the 'smart use' of energy, can deliver half of the world's energy needs by 2050, according to one of the most comprehensive plans for future sustainable energy provision, launched today. The report ... provides a practical blueprint for how to cut global CO2 emissions by almost 50% within the next 43 years, whilst providing a secure and affordable energy supply and, critically, maintaining steady worldwide economic development. Notably, the plan takes into account rapid economic growth areas such as
China, India and Africa, and highlights the economic advantages of the energy revolution scenario. It concludes that renewable energies will represent the backbone of the world's economy -- not only in OECD countries, but also in developing countries such as China,
India and Brazil. "Renewable Energy will deliver nearly 70% of global electricity supply and 65% of global heat supply by 2050." This seemingly sound view maintains that economic growth can be sustainable whilst reducing GHG emissions by adopting renewable energy technologies coupled with conservation. It is extremely doubtful that it will be possible in practice as global entropic and population growth exacerbates predicaments like industrial energy, food and water shortages.
4093 ‘Coastal Mega-Cities In for a Bumpy Ride’ By Srabani Roy, Inter Press Service,
Wednesday 28 March 2007. New York – ‘About 643 million people, or one-tenth of the
790

world's population, who live in low lying coastal areas are at great risk of oceans-related impacts of climate change, according to a global research study to be released next month.’ This article indicates one possible major consequence of climate change that will entail the usage of some of the remaining natural bounty for the essential adaptation.
Society will have to learn to live with these consequences. Unfortunately, it is the poorer countries that are likely to be hit the hardest.
4094 http://environment.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,2028872,00.html
British push on CO2 at security council.
· Diplomats seek to put climate change on agenda
· Foreign Office argues it is a matter of global stability
Ed Pilkington in New York and David Adam, March 8, 2007
< http://www.guardian.co.uk
>
The Guardian. The British government is considering putting climate change on to the agenda of the UN security council for the first time to underline the urgency of the issue.
They realistically see dangers of resource wars and problems stemming from mass emigration.
4095
The current species extinction rate is estimated to exceed the natural or
‘background’ rate by 100 to a 1,000 times. Habitat loss and degradation affect 86% of all threatened birds, 86% of mammals, and 88% of threatened amphibians. All 21 species of albatross are now under threat globally, compared to only 3 in 1996, as a result of long-line fishing. By-catch threatens 83 species of bird. The total number of threatened animal species has increased from 5,205 to 7,266 since 1996. Of the
129 recorded bird extinctions, 103 are known to have occurred since 1800, indicating an extinction rate 50 times that of the background rate.
 4096
Desertification became well known in the 1930s, when parts of the Great
Plains in the United States turned into the " Dust Bowl " as a result of overgrazing,
791

drought, development of colonies and poor practices in farming although the term itself was not used until 1950. During the dust bowl period, millions of people were forced to abandon their farms and livelihoods. Greatly improved methods of agriculture and land and water management in the Great Plains have prevented that disaster from recurring, but desertification presently affects millions of people in almost every continent. United Nations Convention to Combat
Desertification is a program aimed to reduce its impact. Desertification is widespread in many areas of China , Mexico, Nigeria, Brazil, central Asia and the
Sahara region. In China the populations of rural areas have increased since 1949 for political reasons as more people have settled there. While there has been an increase in livestock, the land available for grazing has decreased. Also the importing of European cattle such as Friesian and Simmental, which have higher food intakes, has made things worse.
The causes of desertification are manifold and not well understood. It may be reversible in some circumstances but at a significant eco cost. Consequently it is an irreversible process. Basically, it is a significant contributor to global entropic growth.
4097
Of great concern is the rate at which deforestation is occurring. Currently, 12 million hectares of forests are cleared annually - an area 1,3 times the size of KwaZulu/Natal!
Almost all of this deforestation occurs in the moist forests and open woodlands of the tropics. At this rate all moist tropical forest could be lost by the year 2050, except for isolated areas in Amazonia, the Zaire basin, as well as a few protected areas within reserves and parks. Some countries such as Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Costa Rica, and Sri
Lanka are likely to lose all their tropical forests by the year 2010 if no conservation steps are taken.
4098 http://www.ipsnews.net/africa/nota.asp?idnews=39242
‘Parliaments Said to be "Weak" in Fighting Desertification’ by Evelyn Matsamura Kiapi.
MADRID, Sep 12 – ‘Legislatures have been taken to task over their track record in addressing desertification, this at the eighth session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Convention to Combat
Desertification (COP8), currently underway in the Spanish capital, Madrid.’ Looks like
792

just more talk that tends to typify what is done about many of the predicaments facing society.
4099
This is a holistic view of why humans have reduced the ecosystem to the current state. ‘The destruction of the natural world is not the result of global capitalism, industrialization, 'Western civilization' or any flaw in human institutions. It is a consequence of the evolutionary success of an exceptionally rapacious primate.
Throughout all of history and prehistory, human advance has coincided with ecological devastation.’ by John Gray in "Straw Dogs". This view is consistent with the mechanism covered in this essay. It does not, however, take into account the delusionary role of science and technology.
4100
‘Human Population Numbers as a Function of Food Supply’ by Russell Hopfenberg and David Pimentel http://www.oilcrash.com/population.htm
I would suggest that you read David Price's paper first. It makes the case not just that human numbers are a function of food supply, but also the case that the food supply is a function of industrial energy. ‘Energy and Human Evolution’ by David Price > http://www.oilcrash.com/energy.htm
brings out the interdependence of population and the food and industrial energy supplies without mentioning the other elements in the complex operations of society.
4101 Energy consumption/GDP is a comparison of rates. It is analogous to gallons/mile for a car. It is a measure of the efficiency of the production engine, when the distortion due to measuring production in dollars is accounted for. It does not take into account the limited capacity of the fuel tank, the fossil fuel capital that provides most of the industrial energy. It carries the implicit assumption that this production process can go on forever.
It is a measure that is commonly used only because the users are deluded..
4102
The Gasification Technologies Council (GTC) was created in 1995 to promote a better understanding of the role gasification can play in providing the power, chemical and refining industries with economically competitive technology options to produce electricity, fuels and chemicals in an environmentally superior manner. Breakthroughs in
Energy Alternatives Highlight 2006 Gasification Technologies Conference Clean,
Efficient Technology Used To Produce Chemicals, Fuels and Power. This gives the
793

impression that the GTC is realistically addressing the predicament. But what predicament? What is the use of producing more, even if in a better fashion, if there are more people wanting more? Is GTC promoting a substituting technology coupled with a cut back? I doubt it. It looks like Jevon’s Paradox again.
4103
Dr.Pimentel points out that, at present, 18% of the U.S. corn crop is used for ethanol production and that it is providing 1 percent of our industrial energy use. If 100% of the corn crop were used, it would provide 6% of current industrial energy use -- at a cost of no chicken, pork, or eggs to eat. We'd still have grass-fed beef. He also points out that we use TWICE as much fossil fuel energy as is provided by all the solar energy collected by green plants in the United States. On its face, this means that biofuels, including cellulose, are a dead letter for making us fossil-fuel independent. Doubtless the proponents of ethanol production are making business decisions within the local environment and based on the premise that cars will continue to play an important part in the operation of society – and to hell with the future consequences.
4104
This American comment ‘China is the world’s second-largest consumer of oil, and its oil imports soared almost 25 percent this past year despite the spike in petroleum prices.
China has come late to the party, but the day when it faces the same predicaments we do-
-pollution, price disruption, dependence on foreign markets--is not terribly far off. Now, while we are not competing head-to-head with them on supplies and Beijing won't suspect it is some kind of Western trick, is the time for cooperative efforts with the
Chinese in search for alternatives to oil. From ethanol to fuel cells, the Chinese could make good partners.’ It is technology that one day both countries will need to ease the decline slightly but it needs to be coupled with markedly reduced demand. There is limited natural bounty remaining for both countries.
4105
This is a typical example of the rhetoric that abounds and tends to stymie discussions about effective action. Michael T. Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College in Amherst, Massachusetts and the author of ‘Blood and Oil: The
Dangers and Consequences of America's Growing Dependency on Imported Petroleum’ and ‘Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict’. He puts a balanced case
794

on the question of oil supply in the article ‘Tomgram: Michael Klare, Why Oil Prices Are
Falling’. It ends with < This is the world we now inhabit, and it will never get truly better until we develop an entirely new industrial energy system based on petroleum alternatives and renewable fuels.> That is, he sees industrial energy supply being the only predicament and then suggests that it can be solved. He does not recognize that there are too many people doing too much damage to the ecosystem by consuming too much. His rhetoric is encouraging working on a ‘solution’ that will make the holistic predicament much worse. He is advocating a consumption of natural bounty that is not worthwhile.
4106
‘DISTILLERY DEMAND FOR GRAIN TO FUEL CARS WASTLY
UNDERSTATED. World May Be Facing Highest Grain Prices in History’ by Lester R.
Brown www.earthpolicy.org/Updates/2007/Update63.htm
. This is just one comment on the emerging fuel-food predicament. A ‘solution’ that is generating a greater problem but not yet for those making the money.
4107
‘New trees to reclaim Amazon lands’ by Richard Black, Environment correspondent,
BBC News website, Rio Branco explains ‘A Brazilian state intends to make cattle ranchers reforest land which they have cleared for grazing.’ Many would see this as a step forward – after two steps back. But at least it is an attempt to repair some of the damage at a low eco cost.
4108 Countless millions of motivated young Asians are striving to prove their worth by degrading the ecosystem in the manner shown on Western TV.
4109 Tainter defines collapse as a reduction in social complexity‹i.e., a contraction of society in terms of its population size, the sophistication of its technologies, the consumption rates of its people, and the diversity of its specialized social roles. Often, historically, collapse has meant a precipitous decline in population brought about by social chaos, warfare, disease, or famine. According to Heinberg’s Axiom 1 (Tainter’s
Axiom), collapse will occur because the operations of society are unsustainable.
However, collapse can also occur more gradually over a period of many decades or even
795

several centuries. There is also the theoretical possibility that a society could choose to collapse (i.e., reduce its complexity) in a controlled as well as gradual manner. The latter possibility is probably restricted to very few countries. We can now add climate change to the list of causative factors.
4110 Canadian company has a solution to this true waste heat predicament by turning this excess heat back into electrical energy using an innovation called an atmospheric vortex engine or AVE. From The Economist Magazine print edition Sep 29th 2005 ‘Alternative energy; The power of spin Harnessing artificial tornadoes as an energy source.’ This idea would be likely to receive financial backing because it is based on sound engineering principles. It would work. It is very questionable, however, whether it would make a worthwhile contribution. That would only be established by weighing up the value of the industrial energy supplied against the eco cost of establising, operating and then disposing of the system
4112 this is synonymous with the increasing trend to disorder in the operation of civilization, so an increasing global entropy
4114
Global Call to Action against Poverty (GCAP) was initially a worldwide alliance committed to making world leaders live up to their promises and to making a breakthrough on poverty during 2005. However due to the success of the campaign during 2005, a 170 members of the campaigns international fascilitation group (IFG) met in Beirut in early 2006 and unanomously agreed to continue the campaign upto 31st
December 2007 with the option of extending it further(subject to review).
The Campaign was founded at a conference in Johannesburg, South Africa in late 2004 and officially launched on the 1st of January 2005.
There has been massive povery reduction in China and India due to their economic growth but that has not taken into account the hidden reduction in their natural bounty. It
796

would only be possible to reduce the number of poor if there were a more egaltarian distribution of the remaining natural bounty. That is less likely than the haves getting over their love affair with the car!
4115
As of the year 2006 (and pre-existing for at least three decades), there is a substantial shortfall in availability of potable water, primarily arising from overpopulation in lesser developed countries. As of the year 2000, 37 percent of the populations of lesser developed countries did not have access to safe drinking water. Implications for disease propagation are significant. Many nations have water quality regulations for water sold as drinking water, although these are often not strictly enforced outside of the developed world.
4116
World Water and Sanitation Crisis Urgently Needs a Global Action Plan http://allafrica.com/stories/printable/200611090007.html
United Nations Development Programme (New York) Posted to the web November 9,
2006
A Global Action Plan under G8 leadership is urgently needed to resolve a growing water and sanitation crisis that causes nearly two million child deaths every year, says the 2006
Human Development Report, released here today. Across much of the developing world, unclean water is an immeasurably greater threat to human security than violent conflict, according to the Report, entitled Beyond scarcity: Power, poverty and the global water crisis. This is a typically anthropogenic view of how to tackle a problem.
4117
I was contemplating what diseases might contribute significantly to the coming die off. Malaria, AIDS, diabetes, cancer and bird flu have all been mentioned as possibilities.
Then it occurred to me that there are more insidious diseases than these natural ones that attack human bodies. There are those that attack the human mind. Some, like greed and focus on material wealth, egotism, and aggression are natural afflictions that some say is inherent in our genes. Others, like the power of money, the belief that we humans are in control of the ecosystem, that our science tells us all about how the ecosystem operates and that we have the technology to substitute for and enhance natural operations are
797

dangerous delusive growths. However, the most insidious ones are our specialties of believing in the right to have energy slaves, that cars were begotten to save our legs, TV to save our minds and cell phones to stop us from thinking and bees from pollinating.
4118
Malaria is an infectious disease that is widespread in many tropical and subtropical regions. It causes between one and three million deaths annually, mostly among young children in Sub-Saharan Africa. There is evidence to suggest that climate change is exacerbating this predicament. The return of malaria to the Amazon Basin is deemed due to de-forestation and climate change. It is having a devastating effect on the poor, illprepared logging population.
4119
As of January 2006, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the World Health Organization (WHO) estimate that AIDS has killed more than 25 million people since it was first recognized on June 5, 1981, making it one of the most destructive epidemics in recorded history.
4120 UN Millennium Project Task Force on Water and Sanitation
is a program to improve availability of safe drinking water and sanitation. Lack of these is killing many children annually. It is a tradeoff in that it will use a lot of irreplaceable resources. It is also a reinforcing feedback mechanism as it helps to enable population growth.
4121
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation with support from billionaire Warren Buffett are funding research into a malaria vaccine. This philantropic measure would be more beneficial if it had gone into educating youg people about the ecological reality so they are more likely to rise to the challenge.
4122
There is a horrible dilemma here. These humanitarian endeavors are not fostering a reducing population. Birth rate 'harms poverty goals' By Richard Black, Environment correspondent, BBC News website The UN's Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are "difficult or impossible to meet" without curbing population growth, a UK parliamentary group says.
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4124 Sharon Berk of Tennessee Technological University in Cookeville and her colleagues have found that amoebas in cooling towers are about 16 times as likely to host bacteria as those in ponds and lakes. "It's a problem that we have suspected, but now this confirms it," says Jeffrey Cirillo, a microbiologist at Texas A&M University in College Station.
Hmm..thousands of new nuke plants as incubators for airborne diseases (over how many centuries?).It's sad that this real biological danger was completely overlooked by pronuclear environmentalists like ecologist-turned- philosopher James Lovelock(Gaia hypothesis) of EFN(Environmentalis ts for Nukes).
4125
Open Letter Sent to Dr. Lovelock on Global Warming and Nuclear Power. In April
2007, a group of 14 Japanese organizations involved in environmental and energy issues sent an open letter to Dr. James Lovelock, a British earth scientist, regarding the relevance of nuclear power as a means to curb global warming. The group consists of civic organizations and non-governmental organizations, such as Greenpeace Japan and the Kiko (Climate) Network. http://www.japanfs. org/db/1855- e
This letter provides a comprehensive and very credible view of why nuclear should not be a major element of future energy supply when fossil fuel usage is markedly reduced because of supply limitations and its contribution to global warming. It details the disadvantages of nuclear energy. It makes a good case for promotion of renewable energy sources and better use of energy supplies as the wiser way to go. It does not, however, frame its arguments against the likely reality of a declining global economy.
4126
There are powerful forces promoting the construction of advanced nuclear reactors in a large number of countries. Reactor suppliers in North America, Japan, Europe, Russia and South Africa have a dozen new nuclear reactor designs at advanced stages of planning, while others are at a research and development stage. The intention is to meet the industrial energy demand with less reliance on coal because of its greenhouse gas emissions. There could well be circumstances where nuclear entails a smaller eco cost
799

than the comparable coal-fired power stations but that would be but a palliative measure.
It would have to be coupled with a population reduction and associated industrial energy usage decrease if the decline of civilization is to be slowed. The proposal discussed in
‘Advanced Nuclear Power Reactors, Nuclear Issues Briefing Paper 16, August 2006 http://www.uic.com.au/nip16.htm unfortunately gives the impression that these nuclear reactors would solve the predicament whereas the best they can do is be short term palliatives to smooth the power down.
4127
by which is meant that the construction and operation of nuclear power stations will produce less greenhouse gases than the comparable coal-fired power stations. This shows the myopic view of substituting nuclear power for coal power to mitigate climate change slightly without addressing the increasing industrial energy demand issue and the consequential draw down of the natural bounty.
4128
The rapidly escalating discussion on climate change centres on how we can cope. It conveys the false impression that we can control the situation. It is ironical that we were able to initiate climate change with our fossil fuel burning but it is now out of our control.
Our actions have initiated an irreversible process with largely unpredictable consequences.
4129
Paul Ehrlich: "Giving society cheap abundant energy at this point would be equivalent to giving an idiot child a machine gun." is a sound contrary view from the man who had a lot to say about the dangers of over population.
4130 Possibly because most commentators are focusing on the developed countries where over population is not so much of an issue.
4131
There is the widespread belief in the sanctity of human life but little consideration of the life of the ecosystem that supports us. Many demographers have conflicting views about what can be done. The nature of the predicament varies appreciably from region to region. There is appreciable discussion about human rights but little about human responsibilities. Every human evokes an eco cost during their lifetime, some much more than others. Recognition of the responsibility to limit eco costs could well lead to a more sustainable population.
800

4132 In a book very simply entitled 'The Rat' Barnett outlined the accelerating fertility decline that commonly occurred in laboratory populations of rats that became stressed due to overcrowding, even when there was no shortage of food. He noted that in wild populations a similar auto-collapse phase invariably began BEFORE the deteriorating habitat had begun to impact significantly on the plague population, and it often continued long after the environment had recovered. He also noted that there was invariably a dearth of malnourished corpses during the early stages of the plague's collapse. This stress factor could be coming in to play in human populations in Russia, Japan and
Europe. It is possibly related to measured drops in testosterone levels.
4133
I was reminded of how anthropogenic our society is when reading an article in the
Age by a lawyer and author on his perception of morality and the tyranny of distance.
There are very few in our society who see the immorality of humans consuming a large proportion of natural resources at the expense of other species. There are very few in our society who see the immorality of leaving a legacy of depleted natural resources and devastated ecosystem. They presume rights that they define and conveniently ignore their responsibilities.
4134 There is little doubt that the biggest factor needed in cultural change is the acceptance by humans, especially the powerful, of their responsibility with respect to the ecosystem.
4135 The rich presume the right to flagrantly misuse natural resources to display their exclusiveness.
4136
EarthTrends Update October 2006:
Fossil Fuel Consumption and its Implications by Amy Cassara and Thomas Damassa
‘With a rapidly growing world population and burgeoning economic development across much of the world, issues of energy security and environmental degradation will likely grow increasingly prominent in national agendas.’ The seemingly sound views here conflict with the premise of business as usual presumed with a growing world population and economic development. What human activities have already done to the ecosystem undermines the credibility of this article.
801

4137
‘A New Energy Future: The Benefits of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy for Cutting America’s Use of Fossil Fuels’ September 2006 put out by ConnPIRG is an apparently credible plan to reduce American dependence on importing oil by reducing industrial energy usage and by providing alternative industrial energy sources. The
Executive summary starts with ‘America has the technological know-how and the resources to move away from dependence on oil and other fossil fuels and toward a cleaner, more secure New Energy Future.’ It provides numbers that, on the basis of other studies I have seen, are optimistic. It does not, however, address how the major change would be accepted and actioned. It would require a massive expenditure of resources quickly. But the most damming aspect is that it does not address over population or other aspects of the holistic predicament. Water supply and soil erosion could well become harder to tackle if the industrial energy supply predicament was eased. Assessing the contribution of the various elements to the total eco cost would help to maintain a balanced approach to mitigation action.
4138
It is a global issue even though more pronounced in Africa and Asia.
4139
For example, Lovelock suggests in ‘The Revenge of Gaia’ that with sufficient industrial energy from nuclear power, it may be possible to synthesis food from air, water and nitrogen, do easing pressures on the ecosystem. This measure would, at best, be a weak palliative even if it should be feasible and considered to be worthwhile.
4140
Power companies nationwide (U.S.) have applied for permits or already received them for about 150 new plants that would burn coal, the cheapest but dirtiest fuel for making electricity. But Texas' plans for coal are the biggest, followed by Illinois and
Ohio. They seem determined to make their contribution to climate change!
4142
It is fascinating that many groups aim to promote a sustainable society. That is, they presume that a sustainable society is possible. They often define what is meant by sustainability without noting that the defined state cannot possibly be achieved because it would mean that the society could operate without evoking any eco cost. Of course, many would fear the consequences of making such a dire prognosis. I have no axe to grind. I am concerned only with the ecological reality of what human activities have done to
Gaia. My feelings on the matter do not matter one iota. They cannot change the reality.
802

4143
SustainLane expresses their view as ‘Cities have jurisdiction over many factors related to sustainability, including air and water quality, traffic congestion, and building regulations. All of these factors affect residents’ health, livelihood, and overall quality of life. Sustainability approaches tend to address combined environmental, economic, and social issues, while environmental management approaches tend to focus on issues like pollution or habitat restoration in isolation. The beginning of the 21st century represents a turning point for cities as sustainability subsumes environmental management practices and polices. SustainLane believes sustainability is a more appropriate approach for urban areas because it recognizes people and institutions as the primary actors that benefit from change, with indirect benefits also accruing for natural systems as a result.’ This would be regarded as an admirable view by most. It is a typical anthropogenic view as it puts the welfare of the people before that of the environment. It is a dangerous view because it ignores the ecological reality that the operation of civilization is dependent on the health of the ecosystem. It is a policy that is switching the emphasis back to the good of the community as though that were possible with the decline of natural resources. This attitude is possible because the proponents are ignorant of the Consequence Axiom.
4144
Richard Heinberg is concentrating on peak oil and fostering the approach he took in
Powerdown. This includes getting over the oil addiction and moves towards reduced energy usage. It is another example of looking towards tackling one of the symptoms rather than facing up to the malaise.
4145 The misperception is summed up by the words of Howard T. Odum and Elizabeth C.
Odum in ‘A Prosperous Way Down’ ‘The reason for the descent is that the available resources on Earth are decreasing’. The ‘available resources’ they mention refers to society’s perception of the resources they can use for their purposes, not what is really available in the ecosystem. The ‘available resources’ in their view increased appreciably in recent centuries because of improved knowledge, inventions and advances in technology. Now the perceived available resources are starting to decrease because the ecological reality that they have been decreasing since their usage started is catching up with the improving ability to use these resources. This misperception is common amongst
803

the Cassandras. Heinberg has a similar view. It conveys the impression that a crisis is emerging because ‘available’ resources are starting to decrease when they have really been decreasing for ages. Heinberg (p206) points out the fallacy ‘of a social system designed on the assumption that resource availability will continually grow’ and then notes the signs that resource availability is decreasing so a crisis is developing. The predicament is that the widely perceived increasing resource availability reinforced the belief in the economic growth paradigm. This global momentum has assisted the cornucopians to cast aspersions on the views of the Cassandras.
4146
He was, of course, referring to industrial energy
4147
Climate change scientist Philip Fearnside estimates that hydro projects in the
Brazilian Amazon emit at least twice as much greenhouse gas as coal plants. The worst example studied, Balbina Dam, had a climate impact in 1990 equal to an astonishing 54 natural gas plants generating the same amount of power, according to Fearnside. This illustrates how necessary it is to have a realistic evaluation of the comparative eco costs of alternatives.
4148
It is certainly not possible with the current population level.
4149
Even the most liberal interpretation of recycling does not stand up to scrutiny. The inability to ‘recycle’ life-limited materials has already been stressed.
4150
We have seen that even if ‘recycling’ is feasible it may not be worthwhile because of the high eco cost. Aluminum is an exception but there are very few metals that are in that category.
4151 Worldwatch Institute: ‘ American Energy: The Renewable Path to Energy Security’ is an example of an apparently knowledgeable body suggesting the impossible is possible.
There are many studies that show so-called renewable industrial energy sources will fit niches only in the future and at appreciable eco cost. That is, they will have a small impact on entropic growth.
4153
‘We just need to live in accordance with the three basic laws of ecology.
804

First is the Law of Diversity. The strength of an eco-system lies in diversity of species within it. Weaken diversity and the entire system will be weakened and will ultimately collapse.
Second is the Law of Interdependence. All of the species within an eco-system are interdependent. We need each other.
And the third law of Ecology is the Law of Finite Resources. There is a limit to growth because there is a limit to carrying capacity.’
This is a very common view but the third law as stated is nonsensical. It is the Law of
Finite Resources but these resources are more than finite, they are declining. The carrying capacity is declining. This would be happening even if growth stopped. Global entropy is immutably growing as the result of the activities of industrial civilization.
4154
‘Vaile unsure on fossil fuel targets’ April 19, 2007. Deputy Australian Prime Minister
Mark Vaile has given a cool response to calls to ban fossil fuel imports by 2020, saying he is not sure if the target is achievable. Scientist and Australian of the Year Professor
Tim Flannery said Australia needed to set fuel targets to help halt global warming, including banning petrol imports. It is incredible that someone of Professor Flannery’s repute could make such a wild statement. Australia, because of its small population, can have no impact on global warming. His comment also conveys the impression that a global reduction in emissions would halt global warming. That is contrary to the general scientific view.
4155 BRUSSELS, May 29 (Reuters) – ‘The world should rethink its emphasis on unfettered economic growth and boost efforts to create environmentally- friendly sources of fuel, a draft statement by oil and gas giant Russia ahead of a G8 summit says.’ There are few signs that the powerful are starting to realize that economic growth really means unsustainable devastation of the ecosystem That is synonymous with accelerating entropic growth.
805

4156 But, ironically, not a common view amongst scientists. Yet the public are conditioned to believe that scientists will inform them about reality!
4158
Rachel's Democracy & Health News #896, March 1, 2007
SOME IDEAS FOR A COMMON AGENDA [Rachel's introduction: Successful social movements inspire hope and create solidarity by adopting a set of core goals and understandings. As we work through the wrenching transformations needed to create a just and sustainable society, what ideas can help build the social movement we need?] By
Peter Montague and Carolyn Raffensperger
4159
it imagines the built environment of the developed countries can be maintained whilst having sufficient resources to provide the most essential needs of the vast numbers of impoverished.
4160
It has taken over a decade for recognition of climate change to make the rankings despite very earnest efforts by many knowledgeable climatologists.
4162
This is a typically anthropogenic view. He believes that we can manage to control a predicament we managed to unknowingly create!
4163 He lists the signs of the party ending in the U.S. on pp202-203
4164 The desperate efforts of the U.S. to ensure their continuing importation of oil is not missed by their competitors, China and India, and the oil producers.
4165 Most of the Cassandras are Americans so it is not surprising that they tend to focus on oil as the U.S. is particularly vulnerable because they are so dependent on oil imports to satisfy their addiction. But many U.S. States have water supply predicaments as well.
The population issue will have a major impact, regardless of how much it is ignored.
4166
Technology does have a role here, to improve the amount of energy supplied by a system using an available source. PV, wind turbines and geo sequestration are just some systems where improvements are being made. The situation, however, is often obscured for business by junk science.
4167
One of the major predicaments is that prominent people often make statements that contain technically implausible comments yet their views are believed by the nontechnical. For example, the British Ambassador Sir David Manning was in town to hear from a panel of UW-Madison scientists at a private luncheon Friday before giving a
806

public address on "energy security and climate security." "If we can find alternative sources of energy that are clean sources of energy, we reduce our dependence on unstable parts of the world," Manning said. If companies do this, "they will be in the forefront of the new energy technology. They will make a lot of money for it."
That must be one of the biggest IFs ever. It implies that it may be possible to find such alternative sources. All possible sources were found decades ago. Some, like nuclear, may be worth further close scrutiny.
4168
M.King Hubbert also put the emphasis on culture change when he said some thirty years ago that ‘Our culture is built on growth and that phase of human history is almost over and we are not prepared for it. Our biggest predicament is not the end of our resources. That will be gradual. Our biggest predicament is a cultural predicament. We don't know how to cope with it.’ There is very little sign even now of any real attempt to cope with the end of growth, a symptom of the malaise. In fact, there is very little sign of recognition of the plague caused by too many people consuming too much of what nature has left to offer. There has been some informed discussion of the need to revert to the community-based, self-supporting culture that was the fashion over a century ago. There is, however, no credible view of how this transformation can come about.
4169
‘Culture change is inevitable and may save, enhance and liberate humanity.’ Is the opinion of Jan Lundberg. It will doubtless occur but whether the degree of change will be sufficient to ease the decline is questionable.
4170
Jan Lundberg is well known in U.S. Cassandra circles for his sensible advocacy for culture change. But he also concentrates on the post-carbon era and does not recognize the limitations imposed by the Consequence Axiom. His view is summed up by ‘We don't need energy at any cost. We need to conform to ecological reality and start enjoying what it is to be fully, beautifully human instead of cogs in the machine of consumerism for corporate profit.’ This sounds good except what is the ecological reality? He does not seem to have a grasp of the holistic predicament or how society will wake up to it. He does, however, detail how far we have already gone down the wrong track.
807

4171 The U.S. insurance industry believes that the risk of hurricane damage in the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts has escalated tremendously. They have cancelled policies on 680,000 homes. Surely that is a wake up call. The insurance industry is adept at risk management.
Their opinion is much more believable than that of the politicians and other business people who have vested interests in maintaining the status quo.
4172
Rising sea level, modified ocean currents, more variable weather, disruption of water supply mechanisms head the list in the IPCC report. The reaction of ecosystems is also a very worrying aspect.
4173
Ockhams Razor. Dr John Reid, Neuroscientist, Melbourne
‘The next most human way to reduce the population might be to put something in the water, a virus that would be specific to the human reproductive system and would make a substantial proportion of the population infertile.’ This is one controversial contribution on this issue.
4174
The Oil Drum: Europe Dr James Hansen: Can We Still Avoid Dangerous Human-
Made Climate Change? Posted by Chris Vernon on Wednesday November 22, 2006. This is a very good article as it summarizes Hansen’s expert views while also having a wide range of comments from apparently knowledgeable people. It is clear, however, that they all look at the situation from the narrow energy perspective. There is no mention of over population and the other predicaments we should be addressing.
4176
It is the type of thinking that should grow with the Earthly Revolution.
4177
Cuba and Denmark have shown what can be achieved.
4178 There is little doubt that there will have to be a power down by the well off. A voluntary adjustment of lifestyle to do more, like gardening, and to use less will ease the pain.
4179
They believe in economic growth when the reality is accelerating entropic growth.
4181
Will the Empire State Building eventually be left to fall down like so many temples in defunct civilizations?
4183
Consequence Axiom
4184
Freedom Axiom
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4185 A recent landmark ruling by the Swiss Federal Court recognising wind farms as being in the public interest could have wider implications across the country. The Federal Court thus reversed a decision by a lower court in Neuchâtel, which had ruled in favour of residents opposed to the building of seven turbines in the Vue des Alpes area of canton
Jura.Neuchâtel judges had decided that protection of the landscape – in this case the Jura
Mountains – was the overriding consideration, given the "small if not almost negligible" contribution wind power could make to the country's overall energy supply. Debates like this are becoming quite common in many developed and developing countries in an attempt to resolve conflicting interests in a very tight situation.
4186 http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L22282522.htm
‘Sustainable cuppas: Kenya tea goes climate friendly’ 23 Mar 2007 By Daniel Wallis.
NAIROBI, March 23 (Reuters) - As the world tries to climate-proof everything from cars to factories, your cup of tea may be about to become a bit more environmentally friendly.
A U.N. project being launched in Kenya will help about a dozen tea plantations build mini-hydropower dams to cut their energy costs, and maybe even export clean electricity to the national grid or rural electrification schemes. This may be a worthwhile project if it is subject to realistic eco cost assessment rather than the normal business judgment that benefits the middle financially rather than the producer or the consumer.
4187
It is nice to be able to record a bright spot. The Nobel Peace Prize deservedly went to
Professor Muhammad Yunus and his Grameen Bank for providing the financial means for even the poorest of the poor to work to bring about their own development. It is to be hoped that more such rational developments sprout rapidly as they can really help to mitigate the decline.
4188 There are a few signs of that happening. Speaking at the British Labor Party conference last week, former President Clinton said the vibrancy of the British economy was in part due to the fact climate change was being tackled within binding national and international frameworks such as Kyoto. It is ironical that this type of progressive attitude
809

is still based on the assumption that reducing greenhouse gas emissions substantially will control climate change. There is no geophysical reason supporting that belief. This encouragement of business to have an ecological view is to be commended. However, most businesses are not responding, partly because there are very vocal political forces saying that switching will harm economic growth. The sacred myth lives on!
4189
Global warming can be seen as a classic "market failure," and many economists, environmental experts and policy makers agree that the single largest cause of that failure is that in most of the world, there is no price placed on spewing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. There are moves to redress that with carbon trading but that will not help the hardest hit. http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L13136537.htm
INTERVIEW-Poor need more help to adapt to warming -Wolfowitz
13 Mar 2007, Reuters. by Jeremy Lovell, LONDON, - The world is pouring money into the battle to slow climate change but doing too little to help the poor adapt to it, World
Bank President Paul Wolfowitz said on Tuesday. With billions of dollars pouring into emissions trading and the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism to cut the greenhouse gases entering the atmosphere, the world's poorest people are being forgotten in the green revolution.
4190
WorldChanging view is "If we face an unprecedented planetary crisis, we also find ourselves in a moment of innovation unlike any that has come before.... We live in an era when the number of people working to make the world better is exploding." There is little doubt that innovation can lead to better use of resources so better real worth but it is most unlikely to slow the rate of entropy increase. Innovation can well lead to a degree of substitution of some materials for scarcer ones. This would slow entropy growth slightly but it would still be growing because resources are being consumed and wastes are being generated.
4191
The conventional view is that without economic growth, the capitalistic market place would collapse. This is doubtless true if it is a consumption led market, as at present.
However, if businesses had to pay the full life-cycle eco cost of their production, they
810

would be motivated to provide the best possible worth of their product. The motivational power of success would be used to provide good worth for eco cost.
4192
They currently do a very efficient job of degrading the ecosystem by fostering consumption at any (eco) price.
4193 http://www.naomikle in.org/shock- doctrine/ reviews/shock- wave-troopers
’Shock Wave Troopers’ Brian Lynch, Georgia Straight, September 6, 2007
Naomi Klein exposes the economic ambulance chasers who take advantage of natural and economic disasters worldwide. Milton Friedman, the Nobel-laureate economist and champion of unfettered global markets, was a great believer in preparing for disaster. As he wrote in the opening of his 1962 manifesto, Capitalism and Freedom , "only a crisis– actual or perceived–produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around." And Friedman worked his long career to ensure that the economic ideas lying closest to powerful politicians and bureaucrats in times of trouble were the ones he espoused most fervently: deregulation of industry, privatization of state-owned companies and resources, the shrinking of government to its barest essentials, and the complete freedom of capital to move according to its whims. ‘
This article discusses the evolving ability of capitalism to take advantage of natural and synthetic disasters at the expense of the proletariat. Klein takes the view in her book ‘The
Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism’ that this is a disastrous mechanism for society. The view taken here, however, is that it shows the ability of Big Business ‘to read the tea leaves’ and act according to their benefit. They seem to be aware of the fact of the growing disorder in civilization and to see this as providing opportunities for them whilst society at large bemoans what is happening. The current response of Big Business to GHG emissions is another, major example of their vision. They are actually helping society to adapt to the entropic growth of the Body of civilization.
4194 Some doubtless will read the situation realistically and grab the emerging opportunities. But it is likely that Big Business as a whole will continue to power the devastation. The oil companies will diversify but that is most unlikely to have a significant influence on the conflict for the remaining oil.
811

4195 ‘For the record, I think GATT, NAFTA, NAU and all recent forms of so called Free
Trade agreements invented in the last quarter century, are actually free rape agreements for all but the wealthy classes of ALL countries involved, especially the poor countries, and the architects and promoters of these arrangements are in my opinion hard criminals.’
4196 ‘Federal criticism of WA gas deal 'crazy'’ December 9, 2006. http://www.abc. net.au/news/ newsitems/ 200612/s1807934. htm
West Australian Premier Alan Carpenter has rejected allegations he has held a gun to
Woodside Petroleum's head by forcing it to set aside 15 per cent of the gas it extracts for the local market.
4197
We do not have the means to replace the stocks of the fossil fuels, to restore soil fertility, to refill depleted aquifers, to reduce the concentration level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and in the oceans. These degrading processes are all irreversible. It will be difficult enough to reverse specialization in society so that more effort can go into food production by sustainable means.
4198
There are undoubtedly many fine scientists endeavoring to improve understanding of how nature works and the unintended consequences of many human operations.
4199
Free Skool is showing that there are a lot of youngsters keen to learn. They can help meet the power down challenge if they are made aware of the reality that we are drawing down on the natural bounty.
4200
Educating the young about the nature of the holistic predicament has a dual advantage. It gives them a stimulating objective and increases the possibility that they will come up with measures that will mitigate the decline. It would also help them to accept their responsibilities with respect to adding to the population.
4201 It would be truly tragic if we were to lose most of our cultural inheritance simply because we continued to extravagantly waste the remaining natural bounty.
4203
As Heinberg said on p241 ‘If ever we have had an opportunity to prove our specialness as a species, our ability to collectively exert moral and intellectual facilities to overcome genetic programming and environmental conditioning through intelligent selflimitation, it is now’.
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4204 That would require a major shift in education so that there is common belief in the axiom that nothing is free. We can look to a brighter future if the motivated young strive to show how clever they are by devising better ways of living with nature than there elders employed.
4205
This would be helped by governments regularly putting out Gross Domestic Decline
(GDD) figures for various communities. Improvement would be represented by a reduction in GDD. It would represent a slow down of entropic growth.
4206
fancy trying to changes the mindsets of the politicians and the privileged!
4207
This is conceivable with the hundreds of millions of bright, young motivated people in many countries
4208
Something else that must occur, especially within applied science, is the replacement of risk analysis with the precautionary principle. We have had too many unintended consequences.
4210
‘Forgetting that we're an intimate part of an interconnected system, as well as a denial of the need to adhere to today's scientific knowledge of what it takes to stay within the carrying capacity of a bioregion is indeed pathological, but the blame for this cannot by lain at the door of civilization.’ This looks like the start of the blame game. Who to blame? Gaia?
4211
The European elite dominated the fiscal games for centuries only to give way to the
Americans over the past century. That hegemony is now passing belatedly to Asian powers, despite desperate American moves. Unfortunately, this conflict is exacerbating the sickness of the Body of civilization.
4212 Published on 25 Jan 2007 by Congressional Record. ‘Energy resources and our future’ by Rep. Roscoe Bartlett
ENERGY -- (House of Representatives - January 24, 2007)
Bartlett provides a balanced view of the history of oil extraction and what is likely to occur in the future. He notes the early wise views on energy of Admiral Rickover and M.
King Hubbert. He notes the influence of having energy slaves on the development of the current high material standard of living in some countries, particularly the United States,
813

naturally. He also notes the associated rapid rise in population. He then goes on to discuss possible ways of meeting energy demands in the future, presuming that there will continue to be economic growth. That is the positive side of his contribution. Let us now consider what he left out. Some items are:
1 fossil fuel combustion produces solid liquid and gaseous wastes that are affecting human health and contributing to irreversible climate change
2 the population explosion has put a tremendous strain on those vital natural resources, fertile soil and potable water
3 the addictive energy slaves have sponsored the development of a greedy consumptive society that will not take kindly to deprivation
4 the draw down of natural resources has enabled the construction of large cities and the associated infrastructure that will be hard to maintain
5
6 the using of natural resources has had a deleterious impact on geodiversity and the associated biodiversity there will be increasing competition amongst countries for the remainder of scarce natural resources, particularly oil
4213
The DuPont Co. today announced ambitious new corporate commitments to³sustainable² businesses, products and conduct worldwide, expanding the company¹s long-term goals in the areas of climate change, industrial energy efficiency, environmental protection and safety. This is a move typical of business. They give the impression that they are attempting to ease developing predicaments and maintain their profitability by innovative measures. The reality is that they are endeavoring to reduce the damage their products are doing whilst maintaining market position. It is a small step in the right direction marred by obfuscation!
4214
There could be a collapse of the credit-derivatives market, which has grown exponentially in recent years. Because virtually every hedge fund borrows from virtually every bank, which is connected to virtually every mutual fund, pension fund, and
814

corporation, the risk of default is spread among virtually everyone in the rich countries.
This would mean that many people would lose a high proportion of their life savings in the event of a collapse. It would cause pronounced demand destruction, particularly for discretionary goods and services. Many would consequentially lose their jobs. This would provide a reinforcing feedback that would accentuate the demand destruction. The
Greater Depression could well be a consequence. The powerful and elite will find someone to blame whilst many of the masses lose what they have slaved for. It would just be a human inspired tsunami. It would not, however, stop the irreversible decline of the Body of civilization. There will be no recovery from the Greater Depression. It will just slow the decline down.
4215
In his brilliant 2001 book The Power of the Machine, human ecologist Alf Hornborg argues that the disparities aren't accidental. An industrial system concentrates resources in what Hornborg calls "centers of accumulation. " Those resources let the industrial system achieve economies of scale and concentrations of influence that distort economic exchanges in its favor. This allows it to gain control over more resources, allowing it to further expand production in a self-reinforcing cycle. The downside is that in a world of finite resources, what's needed to build the industrial system must be taken from somewhere else, and the return to that "somewhere else" is less than what's taken by at least the cost of building the industrial system. Thus the centers of accumulation accumulate by impoverishing other regions, classes, or economic sectors.’
This process is, of course, unsustainable because the centers of accumulation are also impoverishing the future.
4216
Jim Kunstler has, as usual, a very perceptive essay at ‘Peak money’ in Clusterfuck
Nation. http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/2007/11/peakmoney.html He explains how finances have developed from providing a measure of the productivity of society to having to having a life of its own that is manipulated by insiders for their own gratification. It is now an intangible growth that has no connect with reality.
4217
It is a RFM that widens the gulf between the ‘haves’ and the ’haves nots’.
815

4218 To be their lackeys
4219
by providing energy slaves
4220
It’s a pity these thoughts have been so anthropocentric
4221
this has contributed to the ability of science and technology to devise means of using natural resources unthinkingly! It has also enabled many scientists to gain insight into what humans do not know about the self-regulating mechanisms of the ecosystem
4222
The World Economic Forum, Davos this year is focusing on a new world energy order. "The world is going to need a lot more energy in the years ahead. But we haven't yet identified a technology that will deliver us from oil and its cousins." This is just one indication that Big Business does really believe in economic growth and that technology will somehow conjure up new sources of energy to drive this growth. It is quite incredible that they have not been advised of the ecological reality. Some one should acquaint them with the Consequence Axiom and the resultant entropic growth they are fostering!
4223
Money games
4224
There is probably something like 500 million young, educated and motivated people globally who would welcome the intellectual challenge of making do with less – if they knew the real situation. Unfortunately they are conditioned to believe they can have the material standard of living they see on TV. They will be angry when their hopes are dashed.
4225
United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development, Intergovernmental
Preparatory Meeting CSD 15, Opening Statement, February 26, 2007 Indigenous Peoples
Major Group, Opening Statement presented by Estebancio Castro Diaz, International
Indian Treaty Council. This is a seemingly sound assessment of what should be done to replace fossil fuel use to mitigate climate change together with actions to adapt for its impact. It does not, however, recognize that there is a limit to what can be done because of the draw down of natural capital nor the predicament of already having too many people in too many cities.
4226
THE NEXT ADDED 100 MILLION AMERICANS: PART 6 By Frosty Wooldridge, http://www.frostywooldridge.com/articles/art_2007jan06.html
816

Part 6: The end of the age of oil provides numbers that clearly show the continuing dependence on oil is just not possible. It recognizes the dangers from global warming.
But it then goes on to talk about weak palliatives like encouraging fuel economy in cars.
It just mentions the need for a global policy on population. There is no mention of the difficulty in maintaining the present civilization with depleting resources. This type of article does not make a positive contribution to mitigating the decline because it implies that the proposed palliatives are really tackling the malaise.
4227
This understanding would include recognizing that innovative technology may not be the way to go, especially when it has contributed to the predicament.
4228
There is concern amongst some authorities, particularly in the U.S. and Australia, that the aging of the population is resulting in insufficient workers to meet needs. They are using this ‘logic’ to support immigration and higher birthrate policies. It does not seem to occur to them that lower consumption of stuff leads to less need to work so greater ability to care for the elderly and less use of scarce resources. If they could get rid of the idea that growth is a ‘good’ and realize that ‘doing with less’ is a win-win-win situation then they would be showing some sign of wisdom.
4229 The bottom line is that people can not be regulated in a way that leads to sustainability. Any efficiency gained in the production process is used to increase population and consumption. It's known as Jevon's Paradox.
4230 To aid the over-consumption, so the devastation. It is another example of a blind, reinforcing mechanism.
4231 The major element in culture change in developed countries will be getting over the love affair with the car. And that will have to be soon as there is no realistic substitute for oil. The Chinese government is attempting to nip the developing love affair there in the bud by discouraging the acceptability of large, gas-guzzling cars. They are fostering the production of small, efficient cars. That, however, is a mild palliative in view of their major environmental problems.
4232
Discussed on p18 of ‘Gaia atlas’.
817

4233 ‘Full steam ahead for desalination’ by Wendy Frew, Environment Reporter, October
5, 2006 GOSFORD and Wyong councils have begun a search for beach sites for a second lot of temporary desalination units that would produce enough water for 25,000 homes
The industrial energy required to produce 2 million litres of desalinated water a day from one unit is equivalent to the power needed to operate a two kilowatt reverse-cycle airconditioner for one hour a day in 5000 homes, according to the two councils. These councils are faced with difficult decisions with respect to priorities between industrial energy and water as their populations increase. Drought brought on by climate change has greatly exacerbated the predicament. They are learning about the difficulty of operating at high entropy. It is like the end of a long day!
4235
It is ironical that it is the so-called intelligentsia who through their living standard and their travel entail a high eco cost per capita. The poor generally entail a very low eco cost per capita because they cannot afford to devastate the ecosystem in this manner.
4236
"When plunder has become a way of life for a group of people living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it, and a moral code that glorifies it." Frederic Bastiat.
4237 George Monbiot (UK Biologist and Science journalist) new book 'Heat' is hitting the bookshops next week - a particularly trenchant chapter about the role (and culprits) of the 'Denial Industry' are in this edited extract from the book published in the UK Guardian Weekly
4238
If anyone has any doubt about the stupidity of what human activities are doing to
Gaia they should read http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_T ype1&c=Article&cid=1158961810919&call_pageid=968332188492&col=96879397215
4&t=TS_Home
It details what is happening in the Athabasca oil sands project in Alberta, Canada where the aim is to produce 3.5 million barrels of oil per day to help (about 4%) meet future
818

global demand. The article mentions the good, well paid jobs and a higher financial standard of living (but not quality of life) for the indigenous population. The article also details the bad, the utterly irreversible destruction of a large area of the environment and the engendered health predicaments. The purpose is to provide fuel for transportation as though its unmitigated use is an essential support of society. This is a clear example of incurring a horrendous eco cost for something of very doubtful value to the community at large. It will meet only a small part of global demand. Any reasonable reduction in car use in the U.S. would be a much more sensible move. There are muted calls to account for the ecological damage, with government obviously swayed to a large extent by the
‘progress’ and the ‘wealth’ creation for a few. They use rhetoric like ‘Oil sands companies point to technology improvements that have made development less harmful, such as improved water recycling, emissions scrubbing, and waste heat capture. By making further advances, oil sands extraction can continue to deliver economic benefits while minimizing environmental impacts.’ that suggest the value offsets the eco cost.
That is extremely doubtful. Doubtless invocation of the Consequence Axiom would bring a glazed look to their faces and bring forth rhetoric they know from experience would give them continuing support.
4239
Most people have ambitions. They would like to follow a rewarding career path and have their energy slaves. They view manual work as degrading so best left to others.
4240
This attitude has changed appreciably in recent years due largely to the Internet. This is not to imply that it is the source of wisdom. It is certainly the source of a vast amount of information but you have to work hard and think to sort the sound from the rubbish.
Nevertheless, it is more likely to yield something you can believe than the media, which seems to be afraid to look at ecological reality because it conflicts with the economic growth paradigm favored by their bosses.
4241 The regulations governing the construction of the World Trade Center in New York were revised in 1969 to take advantage of advances in know-how and materials. This meant that the Twin Towers was cheaper to construct and had more floor space available for hire. These decisions were driven by money rather than good engineering and safety
819

principles. It is not known how many people died when the Towers collapsed because of lack of escape routes appropriate to the height of the towers.
4242
An article in the National Post, Canada of September 29, 2006 entitled ‘Axis of Oil’ contains ‘At the same time, demand for oil and gas is skyrocketing largely because of rising consumption in China; the International Energy Agency believes global oil demand will grow by over 30% by 2030.’Many politicians and business people will believe that assertion, especially as it comes from the IEA. It implies that the demand in 2030 will be over 110 mbpd when many oil experts expect that supply will have dropped well below the current 85 mbpd.
4243
But it will have destroyed the hopes of most prols before that.
4244
The Cairns Group of countries are trying to restart the Doha round of negotiations in the World Trade Organization to pressurize the U.S. and European governments to stop their subsidized dumping of exports on world markets. It is a classic case of the rich getting richer at the expense of the poor on a global scale. It has destroyed the agriculture of many countries, particularly in Africa, and there is no sign of it diminishing even as obesity is becoming a plague in the rich countries!
4245 The futures and derivatives markets have grown to such an extent that money trades are much greater than commodity trade. A relatively small number of rich speculators will lose a lot of money when the bubble bursts. However, it is almost certain that a very large number in the middle class will lose their jobs and/or their life savings. The debacle with Enron is just one example of what is most likely to happen in the near future.
4246 There is continuing speculation about which country will spark the domino collapse.
Australia, U.S., UK and Spain are regularly mentioned. Mortgagee defaults are rising rapidly in the U.S.. http://www.europe20 20.org/en/ section_global/ 190207.htm
In 2006, US foreclosures increased by 42% , directly affecting an average of 1 US household out of 92. In states such as Colorado, California, Ohio, or Texas, 1 household on 35 or 40 falls victim of foreclosure. In October through December 2006 in Ohio, 3.3% of homes and apartments were filed in foreclosure.
820

4247 http://www.smh. com.au/articles/ 2006/10/27/ 1161749311860. html
THE funniest thing about private equity is the term. They used to be called leveraged buyout funds (LBOs) but at about the time Kentucky Fried Chicken became KFC because we don't like fried food any more, the collective noun was quietly changed to private equity, which sounds nice and Swiss. This article spells out what is happening in the money game. It is a harmless Mind game itself but has grim repercussions for the
Body. It enables people to buy more stuff, build McMansions and fly across the world for a weekend away. The consequential eco cost is high and paid for by the community. It bolsters the self-esteem of the players as it adds to the destruction of the ecosystem.
4248
It is ironical that economists often talk about the ‘trickle down’ effect of economic growth. It will not be long before realists are talking about the ‘trickle up’ effect as the decline of communities spreads to the previously well off.
4249
The rapidly developing need to replace worn out sewerage, oil and water pipelines are some indicators of the nature of this predicament.
4250
But will they really miss all that stuff, especially as their neighbors have to cut back too?
4252 The military/industrial complexes in most countries have a vested interest in maintaining the ‘defense’ capability despite its inherent fostering of conflict. They learnt the advantages of this from what the Nazis did in the 1930s in preparation for their essay at world dominance in WWII.
4253
Michael T. Klare is the Five College Professor of Peace and World Security Studies, based at Hampshire College in Amherst, Massachusetts. His ‘Resource Wars: The New
Landscape of Global Conflict’ was republished in 2002. He has anticipated the developing resource wars. The current EU v Russia for energy security is just one worrying scenario.
‘Resource Wars’ by William K Tabb, Monthly Review (January 2007 issue)
[This essay is adapted from a plenary presentation to the conference of the
Union for Radical Political Economics, August 12 2006.]
’The close relation between war and natural resources is of long standing. What else was
821

colonial conquest about?’ This article provides background on the numerous African civil resource wars. There are lessons to be learnt there about how the current situation is developing.
4254
EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - The EU is coming round to the realisation that
Russia will not in the foreseeable future ratify the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT) - a major deal on energy market access - with the European Commission set to offer Russia an alternative energy market model in its new pact for EU-Russia relations. There is reason to believe that Big Business in the EU are trying to ensure they enjoy some of the financial benefits of the Russian energy resources. It is another example of globalization for greedy purposes!
4255
‘How Did We Get Into This Mess?’ By George Monbiot. Published in the Guardian
28th August 2007. ‘Many of our current crises are the long-term results of a meeting which took place 60 years ago.’ Monbiot describes the tactics used by the neoliberals to greatly improve the power of the elite at the expense of the majority in recent times. He mentions some of the developing financial, environmental and infrastructure crises that are emerging partly because the success of this neoliberalism has weakened the structure of society. He does not mention the fact that civilization has developed by using up natural resources over millennia and the emerging environmental and infrastructure crises are largely because it has now devastated its life support system. Neoliberalism has decimated social structure and exacerbated the other crises. Monbiot does not recognize the fundamental flaw in the operation of society: It is totally dependent on using what is left of natural resources for its operation. The powerful cannot change that fundamental principle although, doubtless, they will avoid the consequences – for a time.
4256
there is some begrudging recognition that we have instigated climate change and so need to cut back our energy exuberance to a degree
4257
They declared war on Gaia millennia ago and have gradually eroded her ecosystem despite losing the occasional battle (Sumeria, the Fertile Triangle, Maya) but the cost has been high so life of their resource base is being drastically stretched. The Sixth Mass
Extinction is most likely under way. Gaia, as usual will slowly recover balance.
4258
These are like a chess game.
822

4259 Helped by colonialism, now trade globalization driven by cheap oil. Rhetoric and financing are powerful weapons. Howver, the globalization has backfired as it has helped economic growth in China, in particular, and India spurt. There is, accordingly, appreciable discussion in the West of the merits of globalization. These discussions, as usual, are prejudice by ignoring thet fact that economic growth really means accelerated entropic growth, so the emerging predicaments.
4260
Rove: Military Must Be Flexible in Iraq http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,,-6176466,00.html
Saturday October 28, 2006, by TODD RICHMOND, Associated Press Writer
WAUKESHA, Wis. (AP) - Presidential advisor Karl Rove blasted Democrats on Friday for even suggesting the U.S. withdraw from Iraq, saying the U.S. can't leave one of the world's largest oil reserves in terrorist hands. However, Rove also said the military must be flexible in its tactics. He did not elaborate.
This is typical of the view of the powerful in the U.S.. They believe they have a greater right to the oil than the inhabitants of the country that is the source.
4261 U.S. National Space Policy
The President authorized a new national space policy on August 31, 2006 that establishes overarching national policy that governs the conduct of U.S. space activities. This policy supersedes Presidential Decision Directive/NSC- 49/NSTC-8, National Space Policy, dated
September 14, 1996.
In this new century, those who effectively utilize space will enjoy added prosperity and security and will hold a substantial advantage over those who do not. Freedom of action in space is as important to the United States as air power and sea power. In order to increase knowledge, discovery, economic prosperity, and to enhance the national security, the United States
823

must have robust, effective, and efficient space capabilities.
This statement gives some indication of the delusion that the administration portrays. It is almost as though they believe the U.S. will be able outperform the other major powers despite their bankrupt economy and consumptionitis.
4262
The Asia Times of September 27,2006 has an article ‘THE HUNGRY BEAR PART
3: No more Mr Nice Guy’ by W Joseph Stroupe on the new Great Game between East and West for industrial energy independence. This view is based on the idiotic presumption that Gaia will somehow increase the capital that industrial civilization has so drastically degraded. They should learn of the existence the Consequence Axiom. They should think about what happens when they are stopped from breathing, eating and drinking. Of course, they will not because they are too powerful!
4263
Russia, China and the ‘stans. India, Pakistan and Brazil are associates. ‘Global
Strategic Reorientation: China-Russia-India Vs Expanding NATO’ http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_1940290,00120001.htm
Hindustan Times, February 27, 2007. ‘Great Game II’ by Vikram Sood
Contains some astute comments on the maneuverings of the great powers in the various regions of Asia. Consideration of the impact of resource depletion is noticeable by its absence. This is not to infer that the great powers are not taking energy security into account. Russia, naturally, is covertly laughing while the U.S. and EU are crying foul whilst doing their utmost to cover themselves. China and India are just bartering away!
4264 Some commentators regard this as a transition to a post imperialistic world. They do not, however, seem to appreciate that the decline in the supply of natural capital is having a significant impact.
4265
POLITICS
’Beyond Hegemony ‘ by Paul Starobin, National Journal,Friday, Dec. 1, 2006 http://nationaljour nal.com/njcover. htm#
824

provides a view of how the global political struggle may develop. It is an anthropogenic view that does not address where a rapidly expanding consuming population is going to be able to get the necessary natural resources from a rapidly declining natural bounty. It does not address how this conflict is contributing to entropic growth.
4266
U.S. National Space Policy
The President authorized a new national space policy on August 31, 2006 that establishes overarching national policy that governs the conduct of U.S. space activities. This policy supersedes Presidential Decision Directive/NSC- 49/NSTC-8, National Space Policy, dated
September 14, 1996.
In this new century, those who effectively utilize space will enjoy added prosperity and security and will hold a substantial advantage over those who do not. Freedom of action in space is as important to the United States as air power and sea power. In order to increase knowledge, discovery, economic prosperity, and to enhance the national security, the United States must have robust, effective, and efficient space capabilities.
This statement is typically American. It ignores Russian and Chinese space capabilities and presumes the U.S. has certain global rights. The Russians, however, have been ahead of the U.S. for years in actual space achievements while the Chinese have recently served notice that they can not be ignored by shooting down one of their old satellites.
4267
Italy has sounded the alarm over Russia's recent energy deal with Algeria, amid fears that the Kremlin is undermining the EU's strategy of seeking less industrial energy dependency on Moscow. This conflicts with a post saying the EU plutocracy are trying to gain access to Russia’s oil and gas wealth. The EU is becoming more predatory, like
U.S..
4268
Britain has now become an importer of oil and natural gas as its mainstay for thirty years, the North Sea fields, are declining rapidly. ‘Fears for North Sea output grow’ by
825

Ed Crooks, Energy Editor, Published: February 13 2 07
’Oil and gas production in the North Sea is now expected to be about 10 per cent lower over the next few years than previously thought, according to the leading survey of the state of the industry.’ The EU has now become heavily dependent on Russia for both oil and natural gas through pipelines traversing politically sensitive regions.
4269
Komfie Manalo - All Headline News Correspondent
Seoul, South Korea (AHN) - South Korea's Ministry of commerce, Industry and Energy on Sunday said that its government is planning to invest over $2 billion this year for the oil and gas explorations overseas. The ministry said government's spending for foreign gas and oil development is expected to reach $2.06 billion this year, up by 32.9 percent from the $1.6 billion earmarked in 2006.South Korea, which imports all of its oil from abroad, is the world's fourth-largest oil importer. This is just one example of appropriative measures being undertaken globally as a degree of awareness of the battle for remaining natural resources increases.
4270 Covert U.S. moves in the Middle East to gain control of Iraqi and Iran oil reserves are likely to meet strong resistance from China in particular.
4271
U.S. is aiming to ease their looming supply problem by importing LNG. But they have quite a few competitors in a better position!
4272 There is good reason to believe that control over oil reserves has been a major factor in the Middle East conflicts over many decades. The new Great Game is being played out
– without referees!
4273
Emissions from China are nearly level with the US and likely to increase as the
Chinese get more cars and electrical goods - up to 30 million households are likely to get digital TVs alone in the next few years. This cornucopian forecast is very unlikely to come to pass, to the chagrin of so many.
4274
The authoritarian Chinese government shows signs of trying to tackle their horrendous ecological predicaments. Their plans are being frustrated, however, by
826

corruption in local governments. The democratic Indian government is leaving that to market forces which, as usual, act in a usury direction.
4275 http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/WAL232511.htm
‘Africa must set alternative energy agenda - U.N.’22 Mar 2007 By Daniel Wallis,
Reuters. NAIROBI - Africa must be bold and follow the examples of Brazil and
Germany to plan an energy future around renewable and alternative sources, the head of the U.N. environment agency said on Thursday. This article makes many sound comments about energy policies that will help all rather than just industries. It is, however, unduly optimistic about what can be achieved in Africa using renewable energy, especially as most of these countries will continue to be preys to western corporations and victims of corrupt governments.
4276
NEWS, http://allafrica.
Business
November in
21, com/stories/
Africa
2006, Addis
200611210258.
(Johannesburg)
Ababa html
About 60 percent of Sub-Saharan Africans would not have access to electricity by 2020, according to the director for energy and water at the World Bank. In the background, another ominous trend can account for the stalling of oil prices in 2006 -- totally unrecognized by the public and ignored by the news media: prices on the oil futures market leveled off because the Third World has effectively dropped out of bidding for it -
- and using it. They cannot afford it at $60-a-barrel.The Third World has entered an era of energy destitution and it is manifesting in symptoms such as local resource wars, genocides, falling life expectancies, and in many places a near-total unraveling of the sociopolitical order. http://www.greenleft.org.au/2007/699/36307
Zimbabwe's new rise of class struggle’, by Steve Marks, 16 February 2007 provides some insight into the type of conflict that will emerge in many countries as over population clashes with resource decline.
4277 UNITED NATIONS STATE OF THE WORLD POPULATION EPORT\TOC\2
UNITED NATIONS POPULATION REPORT 2006 provides details of how the
827

developed countries have poached skilled personnel from the undeveloped countries. The scale of this asset stripping is so great that it has had a major impact in such important areas as health care. Bear in mind that means of filching natural resources such as oil have also been pursued. This is another example of the rampant predatorial activities of countries already enjoying a high standard of living.
4278 http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2007/04/26/768
‘The Real Scandal At The World Bank. The Bank is Killing Thousands of the Poorest
People in The World’ by Johann Hari. This article details the real activities of the World
Bank. They promote the profit-making agenda of corporations by robbing the poor in under developed countries of even the basics, food and water.
4279
There are growing signs of countries with oil and natural gas resources (Russia, the
‘stans, Algeria, Venezuela) resisting the efforts of the major consumers, U.S. and EU, to purloin their assets.
4280
Undeveloped countries are not happy to suffer the effects of climate change precipitated by the unseemly activities of Big Brother and his gang.
4281
Appreciable effort and resources is being devoted by culprit communities on security from what they call terrorists. Wars are being fought on a variety of issues, including the misuse of natural resources.
4282
Africa – Where the Next US Oil Wars Will Be. US Imperialism in Africa,
Wednesday, 28 February 2007 by BAR Managing Editor Bruce Dixon http://www.blackagendareport.com
On Feb. 7 George Bush announced the formation of AFRICOM, a new Pentagon command which will, under the pretext of the so-called "Global War On Terror", plan and execute its oil and resource wars on the African continent. What does this mean to
African Americans? And to Africans? BAR consults Prexy Nesbitt, an architect of the anti-apartheid struggles of the 70s and 80s. This article raises the interesting question as to how successful will America be in their endeavors to maintain predominance over the
828

other great powers or whether reality (Consequence Axiom) will cause a general collapse. My bet is on the latter!
4283 http://mrzine. by monthlyreview.
Aijaz org/ahmad170407.
Ahmad html
’For the first time since its rise as a superpower the United States is facing a serious threat to its hegemony across the globe.’ This article provides a comprehensive and seemingly sound view of the world socio-political situation with the decline of U.S. and the emergence of China, Russia, Iran and Brazil to give multi-polarity. It also comments on the emergence of social capitalism in Latin America. It does mention the developing resource wars in Asia. It is a typically anthropogenic view. It does not take into account that future developments will be severely constrained by the limited remaining global natural bounty. It does not recognize the impact of entropic growth. That is, it continues to foster the delusion that countries can compete for natural resources as though they are not limited by the geological reality.
4284
This is of little concern to the elite, the Tumor of the Mind, as they believe they can avoid the consequences of the decline.
4285
...underlying all the other reasons for warfare is almost always this fundamental imbalance of resource stress and population growth.~ Steven LeBlanc, "Constant Battles"
4286
There can be no winners!
4287
Society’s ability to remedy the damage already done is declining in many areas. We are low on the necessary bounty. The entropy growth of these regions has peaked. The predicaments are becoming more intractable.
4288 Many in the developing countries are learning fast about how to plunder the ecosystem.
4291
Carmania cannot be cured. Some medicine will have to be applied to ameliorate the symptoms.
829

4292 http://www.pr-inside.com/peak-oil-requires-new-thinking-for-r136542.htm
Peak oil requires new thinking for a new age. 2007-05-28 - ‘The consequence of Peak oil means that we need new thinking as to what will drive the world's economies in the post oil era to come.’ This article discusses how electricity may play a bigger role in the transportation field as oil becomes scarcer. It is the type of proposal that will need serious consideration to aid satisfactory conversion.
4294 ‘The Way heeds not if great cities do become deserted monuments or if feet once clad in silk trod bare upon the earth. For Way is the Inexorable.’ This quote, unfortunately, sums up the situation homo sapiens have created for their future civilization and way of life.
4295
The Freedom Axiom tells us that there are no natural forces to stop the crazy decisions that even the most intelligent make in pursuit of money and glory. The rapidly developing people power is still too weak to exert a correcting societal push. It is quite likely that the Earthly Revolution will foster the new dogma of power down and mitigate the decline in some communities.
4296
The activities of the elite contribute a relatively small amount to entropic growth because they are relatively few in number. However, the masses try to emulate the elite.
They do not yet realize that the elite are setting an extremely bad example. The consequential mass striving to consume is contributing substantially to the entropic growth.
4297
There are many proposals world wide to provide alternative sources of industrial energy and to limit the damage to the environment. Those that are subject to sound scrutiny without too much financial distortion could well ease the decline. For example, studies have shown that industrial energy usage in the developed countries could be markedly reduced without a significant impact on the quality of life. There is very little action along these lines as yet because most people do not understand the need to be sensible about how much of the irreplaceable natural resources they consume. Familiarity with the Consequence Axiom will doubtless help some in due course.
830

4298 Jeffrey Jarrett, assistant secretary for fossil energy at the U.S.
Department of Energy, said ‘Coal plant technology developed under Department of
Energy auspices has produced environmental benefits estimated at $60 billion through the year 2000 from reductions in emissions that cause acid rain, according to the
National Research Council.’ This gives the impression of being a use of technology to benefit the ecosystem. The reality is that the improved coal plant technology reduces the harm that was being done by the acid rain. It was a remedial action only.
4299
Forth Worth, Texas, lies atop a huge natural-gas field, and thus is at the center of the biggest urban drilling boom in the U.S. today. The city has leased more than 2,400 acres of public land for natural-gas development; over 600 wells have cropped up in the last year alone, and, says Mayor Mike Moncrief, "we've only just started." It's an economic jackpot for some Fort Worth residents and groups -- the American Cancer Society sold mineral rights to donated land for $5 million, and the Girl Scouts allowed drilling under a summer camp for an undisclosed amount. While residents have been assured that they're unlikely to even be aware of the excavation happening under their land -- thanks to new technologies, holes can be dug as much as a mile away and drills can go in horizontally thousands of feet under the earth -- some are worried about explosions, accidents, noise pollution, and exploitation. But for many, particularly in poorer neighborhoods, signing bonuses and promises of ongoing royalties outweigh the risks. "Whether Haliburton or Enron or anyone, Greed is a Weapon of Mass
Destruction" - Faithless
Debt and greed fuel this boom, October 28, 2006
4300
The rat race is the best thing going because it keeps the rat race going.
4301 http://www.alternet.org/envirohealth/47371/
By Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. With an elaborate network of phony think tanks and slick public relations firms, ExxonMobil has become today's Big Tobacco, defrauding the public and waging a war on science.
831

4302 They will continue to be focused on short-term prospects in their environment and will only account for externalities when forced to. They will continue to publicize
(externalize) costs and privatize profits (EC&PP) where they can. Oil is the best example.
Over half of this limited natural resource has been exuberantly used in the past century because the producing countries have presumed the right to gain limited financial benefit now without any consideration for future generations.
4303 Climate Conference - Pushing GM as the saviour of the world? This commentary has been produced for people to read and pass to anyone planning to be at the UN conference to alert them to the possibility of the latest GM 'good news story' that may be promoted there. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will be held in Nairobi, Kenya this year from the 6th-17th November.
Climate change is now acknowledged to be one of the biggest threats facing the planet, although some sections of business (the oil industry in particular) and some governments
(e.g. the U.S.) have been reluctant to acknowledge the devastating role that modern industry, transport and food systems have had in contributing to carbon dioxide emissions and climate change. Deforestation is exacerbating the problem as there are fewer trees to absorb carbon dioxide for growth. As the atmosphere warms up due to increased carbon dioxide, climate responds by changing in different ways across the planet. We are already seeing changes in patterns of temperature and rainfall across Africa, as many of you who lament the loss of the reliable and regular rainy seasons well know. The article then goes on to warn how Big Business will be pushing GM crops as being the way to mitigate the effects of climate change in Africa. It points out the realistic uncertainties and dangers associated with the proposed methods of substituting for proven natural farming methods.
4304
This comment by Peter J. Cooper in the KUWAIT TIMES ‘The natural world has an uncanny ability to hit back at the arrogance of man, and perhaps a reassessment of reality at this point is called for, rather than a reliance on oil statistics that may owe more to political manoeuvring than geological facts.’ Really seems to sum up what society should be doing about its oil addiction – as spelt out by George Bush without doing anything.
832

4305 ‘Scientists say the global energy crisis can be solved by using the desert sun ‘ by
Ashley Seager, Monday November 27, 2006,The Guardian ’In the desert, just across the
Mediterranean sea, is a vast source of energy that holds the promise of a carbon-free, nuclear-free electrical future for the whole of Europe, if not the world. We are not talking about the vast oil and gas deposits underneath Algeria and Libya, or uranium for nuclear plants, but something far simpler - the sun. And in vast quantities: every year it pours down the equivalent of 1.5m barrels of oil of energy for every square kilometre.’
Superficially this proposal looks a sound way of mitigating the energy supply predicament. Whether it can be a practical and timely contribution to EU energy security has yet to be argued. However, that predicament is only one and should not be tackled in isolation. It will not help much if energy demand continues to escalate.
4306
World demand for energy is set to grow by more than 50 percent in the next 25 years on current trends, meaning that effective action on climate change is likely to require a technological breakthrough, the International Energy Agency warned. In a stark report assessing global energy needs to 2030, the IEA highlighted seemingly irreconcilable forces that are set to push carbon dioxide emissions higher at a time when urgent action is needed to tackle global warming. ‘GLOBAL LEADERS REACH CLIMATE DEAL’,
BBC News, February 16, 2007
< http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6364663.stm
> http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/scien ce/nature/6364663.stm
"Climate change is a global issue and there is an obligation on us all to take action, in line with our capabilities and historic responsibilities," said the statement from the Global
Legislators Organisation for a Balanced Environment (Globe). The two-day meeting brought together legislators from countries including the Group of Eight rich nations plus
Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa.’ This positive move is likely to lead to no more than ineffectual palliative action as the demand for industrial energy grows to feed consumerism while population continues to grow.
4307 The emergence of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in recent years, particularly in Europe, shows that business is waking up to the fact that they cannot ignore the
833

deleterious consequences of their consumptive drive. There are signs that Big Business is belatedly responding to the needs of a growing mass of disadvantaged people in a rapidly degrading ecosystem. It is a small, anthropocentric move seemingly in the right direction.
But it is based on the false premise that society can continue to consume the limited natural bounty exuberantly.
4308
Venezuela’s President Chavez's Speech to the United Nations on Friday, Sep 16,
2005 included ‘It is unpractical and unethical to sacrifice the human race by asserting the validity of an insane socioeconomic model that has a galloping destructive capacity. It would be suicidal tospread it and impose it as an infallible remedy for the evils which are caused precisely by it.’
4309
There are no grounds to be optimistic about wisdom. Probably less than 1% of supposedly educated people appreciate the ecological reality. It is paradoxical that the elite in many past civilizations seem to have had more understanding of the situation than the present day ones. I expect that is largely because money has such a dominating role.
There is the insane belief in economic growth without counting the real eco cost. There is the unrealistic belief that ‘progress’ consists of using scarce resources to emulate nature.
4310 Examination of the human psyche suggest that people will find it very hard to regress to a simpler way of life, but it will be unavoidable for those comfortably well off now.
There will many, however, who will gain by contributing to the spreading of the new dogma.
4311
By James Howard Kunstler for The Daily Reckoning. You can read more from
James and many others at www.dailyreckoning. co.uk Kunstler is also author of ‘The
Long Emergency’ Editor's Note: James Kunstler has worked as a reporter and feature writer for a number of newspapers, and finally as a staff writer for Rolling Stone
Magazine. In 1975, he dropped out to write books on a full-time basis http://www.moneywee k.com/file/ 20205/why- markets-need- to-take-peak- oil-seriously. html .
He focuses on the U.S. brittle dependence on easy access to industrial energy and gives no consideration to the over population issue and supply of the food and water essentials.
4312
Particularly in the richer communities and countries
834

4313 but most do not understand what that means. It is like how you feel after a long, tiring day except civilization cannot start again after a good sleep.
4314
Such investment in complexity is a component of why societies collapse, according to collapse scholar Joseph Tainter. As he explains, increased complexity leads to diminishing returns, until more and more resources and energy are needed just to maintain the status quo, leaving no reserves to deal with any new demands or emergencies. At a certain tipping point, rapid disintegration results. Will innovation kick in before that point? We shall see. This view of Tainter is synonymous with entropic growth, the decreasing ability of the remaining natural bounty to meet needs.
4315
particularly amongst the heavily consuming middle classes
4316
the panic amongst the billionaires who lose a few million will doubtless spread like a wildfire to consume many hapless eager beavers.
4317
From the NY Times, April 1, 2007 ’Poor Nations to Bear Brunt as World Warms’ By
ANDREW C. REVKIN.’The world's richest countries, which have contributed by far the most to the atmospheric changes linked to global warming, are already spending billions of dollars to limit their own risks from its worst consequences, like drought and rising seas.’’ The lack of climate aid persists even though nearly all the world's industrialized nations, including the United States under the first President Bush, pledged to help when they signed the first global warming treaty, the Framework Convention on Climate
Change, in 1992. Under that treaty, industrialized countries promised to assist others "that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in meeting costs of adaptation.’ Even though this richness is artificial to some extent, it does mean that they are able to continue to get more than their fair share of global resources like oil. They will continue to be predators.
4318
Along the lines promoted by the Centre for Ecological Economics with their
Environmental Cost Accounting and Business Strategy plan
4319
particularly amongst the emerging middle class in China and India. Hopefully some will be aware of the reality and will make a contribution to mitigation. They will become
Earthly Revolutionaries.
835

4321 http://civillibertarian.blogspot.com/2007/01/law-of-life-and-law-of-death.html
‘The Law of Life and the Law of Death’ by Juan Santos,1/11/07
‘The Great Emergency: Global Warming, Mass Death and Resource Wars in the 21st
Century’ is a realistic look at what could well happen. It implicitly takes into account
Dependence on Nature Law without providing the sound argument under pinning the assertion.
4322
WASHINGTON, DC - In an unprecedented action, representatives for more than
10,000 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency scientists are calling on Congress to take immediate action against global warming, according to a petition released by Public
Employees for Environmental Responsibility (PEER).
4323
the biggest predicament is that those people in powerful positions have got there because they have followed the conventional progress path. They are most unlikely to even try to change their mindset.
4324 http://upsidedownworld.org/main/content/view/596/1/
‘Introduction to Horizontalidad: Voices of Popular Power in Argentina’
by Marina Sitrin
Tuesday, 23 January 2007 This book is the story of a changing society told by people who are taking their lives and communities into their own hands. It is told in their own voices. It is a story of cooperation, vision, creation, and discovery. It is but one example of the emerging world-wide move for a more just, egalitarian society. It is contributing to the start of the Earthly Revolution.
4325 The article cited below elaborates on what the political elite is doing in the U.S. to protect their position as oil supply predicaments hit the economy. He sees people power as being the only way to stop this movement.
Tuesday, October 17, 2006
Subject: Energy Depletion & the U.S. Descent into Fascism by
Dale Allen Pfeiffer
836

Please distribute this article as widely as possible. A pdf version of this article, suitable for printing, is available on the website (www.mountainsentinel.com).
4326
The self-organization ability facilitated by the Internet could well become a powerful tool for adapting to the ecological reality. Only time will tell but it is a move in the right direction. It could well lead to an increasing number of class actions that will, at least, arouse the interest of the media and wake more of the masses up to the grim reality being brought on by past misuse of natural resources. They could contribute to the Earthly
Revolution. They will also put pressure on the movers and shakers to be seen to be putting their house in order. There is the possibility, however, that the powerful already realize this vulnerability and are moving to exert more control under the homeland security issue in some countries.
4327
For example, The Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment is working with agricultural scientists, irrigation and sewerage planners, public health specialists on so-called ‘solutions’ to the hotter, drier future whilst the government is actively fostering population and economic growth!
4328
Especially in cities, even in the industrialized countries.
4329 ‘Bush's Petro-Cartel Almost Has Iraq's Oil’ by Joshua Holland, AlterNet. October 16,
2006. Even as Iraq is on the verge of splintering into a sectarian civil war, four big oil companies are on the verge of locking up its massive, profitable reserves, known to everyone in the petroleum industry as "the prize." http://www.alternet .org/waroniraq/ 43045/
This is a typical American view that ignores the fact that there are other great powers with a similar agenda, ensuring they get their share of the remaining oil. The irony is that the more successful any country is in gaining more oil the worse its future predicaments are likely to be. Powering down will be inhibited.
4330 ‘Economics: Hallucinated Wealth’ by John
Michael Greer http://thearchdruid report.blogspot. com/2006/ 10/economics- hallucinated- wealth.html
It surprises me how many people still seem to think that the main business of a modern economy is the production and distribution of
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goods and services. In point of fact, far and away the majority of economic activity today consists of the production and exchange of
IOUs. The United States has the world's largest economy not because it produces more goods and services than anyone else – it doesn't, not by a long shot – but because it produces more IOUs than anyone else, and sells those IOUs to the rest of the world in exchange for goods and services.
4331
the philanthropic activities of many of today’s rich will be meaningful only if directed towards reducing the impact of human activities on Gaia. The plan of Sir
Richard Branson to fund research aimed at combating climate change has been welcomed
– by the blind. The plan is based on the presumption that a cleaner fuel for airliners will help appreciably!
4332
New York Times of October 20, 2002 has an article by PAUL KRUGMAN that provides a well-backed commentary on the explosive growth in extremely rich in the
U.S. in the past decade. It is viewed as being a cultural phenomenon rather than economic. It is likened to the situation in the U.S. nearly a century ago. The extreme wealth of a minority biases the figures on the wealth of the U.S. and how it has been changing. The article talks about the manifestations of this wealth, e.g. mansions, without any reference to the cost to the ecosystem It really boils down to a financial system that encourages people in particular positions to satisfy their egos by flaunting their wealth in building mansions etc. It clearly is a situation where the players are encouraged by reinforcing feedback to compete to receive recognition from their peers. It is a diverging process that cannot continue. It is similar to what is happening in sport.
4333 http://www.informat ionclearinghouse .info/article188 26.htm
‘Henry Thoreau and the Patrons of Virtue’By Charles Sullivan. This essay provides a critical look at capitalism and how it benefits the selfish few at the expense of the masses and the ecosystem and the future. It does not, however, recognize that the material gains are transitory and acquired at the expense of irreversible decimation of natural bounty.
Inclusion of the implications of the Dependence on Nature Law would significantly bolster the case against capitalism.
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4334 Marx must be laughing his head off. Cuba is showing what can be done with less while China’s government is tackling the country’s horrendous environmental predicaments with realistic measures. For example, urban heating systems are no longer free. Their goal is to reduce coal consumption by 130 million tons (10%). On the other hand, capitalism in America is very successfully making things worse as their coal consumption escalates and they turn to producing fuel from corn rather than food.
4335
More by social revolution to consuming less though technology will still have a role in getting better worth for reduced eco cost.
4336
This is not to imply that there can be a wholesale turning back to a simpler way of life. The complexity of modern civilization cannot be unraveled. The hysteresis is too much. Only a limited number will emerge from the chaos.
4337
Sail Transport Network (STN). Under sail, the volume of travel would be vastly decreased compared to today, as would trade-transport volume. But sail power can provide some minimum basis for travel, cultural exchange and trade, using renewable energy and, eventually, using all renewable materials. This is one important example of novel technology rising to the challenge to remedy developing deficiencies.
4338
Heinberg also talked about his most recent book, The Oil Depletion Protocol: A Plan to Avert Oil Wars, Terrorism and Economic Collapse. "We need an agreement to gradually reduce oil consumption in order to discourage competition, stabilize prices, aid with planning and preparation, and protect the resource base," he said. This is a dangerous prescription as it does not address the malaise. It concentrates on a symptom.
4339
Trainer has described how it might operate. His ‘Renewable Energy -- Cannot
Sustain
Consumer Society’ is to be published by Springer early in 2007
4340
There is no fundamental reason for a decline in the good cultural aspects of society, so long as enlightenment leads to better handling of the sickening Body health. Some
Mind games will be able to continue but the Tumor will have to be expunged.
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4341 ‘ The Omega Project aims to facilitate the establishment of an ecologically sustainable
New World Order.’ Is just one proposal but it deals primarily with the organization of society in conjunction with a massive die off. It does not deal with the ecological support needed. It does not deal with handling the decimation of cities. It does not deal with how a large part of society handles loss of affluence.
4342
It is ironical that our ancient forebears seem to have had some insight into what would happen. The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (Pestilence, War, Famine, and
Death) are likely to come galloping into view in the near future. The new-found understanding of chaos dynamics tells us that which, where and when are virtually unpredictable. The Consequence Axiom, however, ensures that a die off (and associated declines) is certain with famine, pandemics, and wars likely contributors. Greater awareness of the responsibilities associated with bringing children into the world may ease the pain a little.
4343
The Consequence Axiom does provide some insight. Society has installed some mechanisms at horrendous unrecoverable eco cost.
4344 The sixth Mass Extinction could well be under way. Gaia will get over it but the
Body of civilization may well wither appreciably.
4345 http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/27/news/climate.php
New alarms are rung on perils of global warming. The Associated Press, February 27,
2007.UNITED NATIONS, New York: To head off the worst of climate change, governments must pour tens of billions of dollars more than they are into clean- energy research and enforce sharp rollbacks in fossil-fuel emissions, a scientific panel reported to the United Nations on Tuesday. "The challenge of halting climate change is one to which civilization must rise," said the panel of 18 scientists from 11 nations, whose work was conducted at the United Nations' request and sponsored by the private United
Nations Foundation and the Sigma Xi Scientific Research Society. Nary a word about conservation, efficiency, downsizing lifestyle yet they talk about halting climate change, even though that is impossible. It is hard to know whether they are deliberately playing down the seriousness of the problem or whether there is some nefarious reason for this
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grossly misleading statement from what would generally be regarded as an authoritative source.
4346
they do have the proven expertise in socializing costs and privatizing profits.
4347
COLLAPSE AND ITS DISCONTENTS, A Carolyn Baker.Org Exclusive,
By Dmitry Orlov,February 01, 2007 ‘Moreover, it must be something of a blessed state, not knowing anything about resource depletion or global warming or collapse, or not caring to know. "Eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we all die," says the preacher, and who am I to disagree? When people do find out about these things, they sometimes go through a bout of acute psychological distress, and only eventually settle down to some internal compromise. I feel almost guilty when I bring someone out of this blessed state, because it feels wrong to be breeding discontent among an otherwise pacified and well-controlled populace.’
4348
The horrifying fact is that a die off is inevitable and the masses in some regions are the most vulnerable. Disintegration of many cities is also bound to occur largely through lack of industrial energy. Affluence destruction will have to be borne by many.
4349
We have our idols – mainly on TV!
4351
March 16, 2007, THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN: Marching With a Mouse
Message to young activists: If you do your homework, have your facts right and the merits on your side, and then build a constituency for your ideals through the Internet, you, too, can be at the table of the biggest deal in history. Or as Mr. Krupp puts it: the
TXU example shows that truth plus passion plus the Internet "can create an irresistible tide for change." There are signs that the tide is rising!
4352
There have been many arguments for the societal benefits of forms of collectivism over the centuries. None of these, however, could embrace the practical mass communication now possible.
4353
That, in itself, would require a major change. Much of the information currently available focuses on the advantages to people of the proposals with little consideration of the likely disadvantages, including damage to the environment.
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4354 There is a strong intellectual force emerging in China and India that could well lead the way in this useful application of people power.
4355
Its formulation would require some real global leadership. Nelson Mandela showed what could be done by inspirational leadership on human rights in his country, in Africa and indeed, in the world.
4357
We are conditioned to believe society is progressing and to ignore the multitude of signs that the foundations are crumbling.
4358
The nightmare has already begun for many communities but their wails are drowned out by cries about the latest virtual games
4359
Thursday, Feb. 15, 2007, ‘Getting Rich off Those Who Work for Free’ by Justin Fox
This article provides insight into an emerging trend where people freely give their insight and expertise to aid development of, for example Wikipedia and Linux. It is clearly a valuable resource – so long as it aims to ease the power down of the Body of civilization as well as the build up of the Mind. Currently, however, it seems to follow the business as usual line of building up the edifice of society, despite what it does to the ecosystem.
4360 http://carolynbaker.org/archives/the-spirituality-of-collapse-by-carolyn-baker
‘The Spirituality of Collapse’ is a sound view of how to face up to the inevitable power down. It covers return to the practicalities of living in a world without so many energy slaves, valuing our life support system and appreciating what we stand to gain by acquiring this wisdom.
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