1
Study of Holocene Glaciation Degradation in Central Asia
by Isotopic Methods for Long-Term Forecast of Climate Changes
Vladimir I. Shatravin1, Tamara V. Tuzova2
1. Tien-Shan Mountain Scientific Center at the Institute of Water Problems and Hydro Power of the National
Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic
2. Institute of Water Problems and Hydro Power of the National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic
Correspondence to: Ph.D.Tamara V. Tuzova, Head research officer of Institute of Water Problems and Hydro
Power of the National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic, 720033, 533, Frunze st.,Bishkek, Kyrgyz
Republic. E-mail: tv_tuzova@mail.ru
Abstract
The article represents the summary of the Holocene moraines and glaciers of Tien-Shan, Pamir and the
Himalayas study with the aim of long-term forecast of climatic and glacial changes. The model of
stadial decaying degradation of the Holocene glaciations in the Central Asian Mountains was offered. It
was shown the significant importance of combination of radiocarbon, isotope-oxygenic and uraniumisotope research methods of the Holocene glaciers and moraines for detailed differentiation of the
Holocene glaciations.
1. Introduction
The problems related to the global warming are
becoming more acute and go beyond the scope of
states, gaining regional and interregional dimension.
One third part of the world’s population is climate
depending; states of Central Asia and Africa are the
most vulnerable. Global climate warming and
degradation of glaciers as a result will lead in near
future to shortages of water and hydropower
resources in almost every state of Central Asia,
where is a significant proportion of river runoff of
glacial genesis. This means that in the near future,
Central Asia may face with water and energy and
environmental disaster. The expected water shortages
will inevitably escalate the already existing conflict
between the Central Asian states on the issue of
transboundary water resources management.
In this regard sustainable long-term (for many
decades and centuries) forecasting on climate change
and glaciation is very important. Such a forecast will
allow to take timely measures on adaptation in
changing climate and mitigate climate change
impact. Errors in forecasting of dynamics of climate
change are fraught with large economic accidents.
Miscalculations of experts of 50-60s of the last
century, concerned with fall in the level of the
Caspian Sea 30 years later turned into social and
economic tragedy for the whole region.
The existing models of long-term glacial and climate
change forecasting don’t enable us to make reliable
forecasts even for the next 100 years. Thus,
according to various estimations, obtained by the
climate models, on which the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under the UN
referred to, the average temperature of Earth surface
in the XXI century could increase by not only 1.1 but
also 6.4 °C
(http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Глобальное_потеплен
ие). Significantly opposite prognostication scenarios
are suggested for such significantly different
forecasts of temperature rising – from global climate
disaster (rising of World’s water level followed by
underflooding of near-shore areas, more intense and
frequent weather phenomena resulted in hurricanes,
typhoons and flooding, drought in Central Asian and
African regions) to changes of little consequences,
excluding earth cataclysms (www.gepl.narod.ru).
There are enough reasons to believe that modern
warming represents the part of natural cycle of
climatic fluctuation. That is why long-term
forecasting of climate and glaciations should be
based on (and this is already applied) regular patterns
of natural climatic and glacial changes which had
been taking place throughout the long period of time
– at least the Holocene. By this time, such regular
patterns are not established, this results in
impossibility to obtain relevant forecast.
The last significant fall of temperature in the
Northern hemisphere, known as “Little Ice Age”,
happened in the mid of the second millennium a.d.,
after that, approximately 200 years ago warming took
its place and lasts in our time. The question on how
long this warming will last and how “deep” will
glaciations degradation and what will change the
warming is very important and open.
Nowadays there are a lot of highly contradictive
paleoglaciological schemes, for the Holocene
inclusively. Among the lasts there is a model of
stadial degradation of the Holocene glaciers and the
2
model of their quasistationary states, implicating
relative stability of climate in the Holocene.
Paleoglaciological and climatic regular patterns are
established mainly by the methods of quaternary
geology. The most significant marks of climatic
temperature falling are moraines which represent the
most reliable and informative material signs of
glacial periods. Results of traditional researches of
quaternary geology and paleoglaciology are full of
profound
contradictions.
During
INQUA
(International Union for Quaternary Research) in
1957 was made a conclusion: “The request on
stratigraphic scale of Quaternary period sent to 22
countries received 22 different responses”, and in
Congress hold in 1973 was stated that the situation
did not change to a better (Bowen, 1981). By now, 40
years later, the situation did not become better,
because traditional methods could not identify even
the number of Pleistocene glaciations and was not
received reliable absolute dating of moraines – the
most important paleoglaciological and stratigraphic
marks of the Quaternary period. According to Penk’s
and Bruckner’s alpine model there were 4 glaciations
in the Pleistocene (John B et al., 1982); according to
Kukla’s loess stratigraphy there were about 18
“glacial cycles” for the recent 1,8 millions years [5];
according to proportion of isotope-oxygen in deepwater oceanic sediments it is supposed that the
Quaternary period included 17 glaciations (Bowen
1981). It is assumed that examination of oceanic
sediments made a breakthrough in paleoclimatology
and quaternary geology. However, as is shown in [4],
the obtained results are ambiguous and contradictive
due to a lot of assumptions and theoretical beliefs
lying in the core of used methods.
3. Materials and methods
mountain areas, traditionally taken for early- and
midpleistocene moraines, as well as significant part
of such formations taken for latepleistocene
moraines, in fact are latepleistocene-holocene
pceudomoraines, which true genesis is gravitational;
they are represented by wide-spread landslides (by
widely developed landslides). Figura 1-4 show
examples of moraines and pceudomoraines in the
mountains of Tien-Shan, Pamir and Himalayas.
2. The lack of reliable moraines dating. Applied
physical
methods
of
dating
(radiocarbon,
thermoluminescent, beryllium, etc.) do not allow to
establish authentically the age of moraines.
Traditionally moraines considered as chronologically
“dumb” formations for the most widely used method
of radiocarbon dating, as there was not found
necessary autochthonous organic matter in moraines.
All radiocarbon dating of moraines were obtained
exclusively by allochthonous organic matter, either
autochthonous, but it was revealed not in the
moraines, but in neighboring sediments of different
origin, nonglacial. In this case the following question
was open - how younger or older than the moraine
the obtained dating? Moraines were not dated by
autochthonous organic due to the fact that such
organic was not only detected in moraines, but even
there was no possibility of finding it there. As
pceudomoraines often improperly taken for moraines,
so their dating obtained by physical methods is
mislead, especially in prognostic aspect.
Mountain glaciers react more sharp on climate
changes. That is why in long-term forecasting of
climatic and glacial changes paleoglaciological
researches of high mountains regions are the most
important. At that, the main study objects are
moraines of epochal and stadial glaciations of the
Pleistocene and the Holocene.
Earlier we have shown the below mentioned main
reasons preventing the creation of long-term forecast
of climatic and glacial changes (Shatravin, 2007a;
Mamatkanov et al., 2010; Shatravin, et. al., 2010;
Shatravin, 2011a;
Shatravin, 2011b; Shatravin,
2012):
1. Incorrect genetic typization of moraines and
pceudomoraines. As main climatic and stratigraphic
marks of high mountain regions researchers use not
only true moraines but pceudomoraines, improperly
take them for moraines. Traditional field methods do
not allow to correctly differentiate true moraines
from morphologically similar formations of
nonglacial genesis – pceudomoraines. It was shown
that incorrect genetic diagnostics of moraines and
pceudomoraines is what mislead researchers dealing
with paleoglaciological reconstruction of mountain
areas by traditional methods. For the Tien-Shan,
Pamir and partly for the Himalayas, on the base of
developed by us quantitative facial-lithological
indicators (geochemical, granulometric and others), it
was determined that all morphological formations of
Identification Marks to the Figura 1-4.
Moraines - gl
Pceudomoraines - gr
Pceudomoraines are represented by delapsive
(landslide-like) gravitational formations
gr1- pceudomoraines of the first age generation
(massive formations)
gr2 – pceudomoraines of the second age generation
(fluidal-form formations)
gl Hs – Holocene moraines
gl PsIII – Latepleistocene moraine
From traditional view:
gr1 – Midpleistocene moraines;
gr2 – stadial Latepleistocene moraines.
Arrows indicate on area and direction of slumping of
polygenetic slope detritus, formed pceudomoraines.
3
Figura 1 Moraines and pseudomoraines of the Nothern Tien-Shan
(in the valley of Chon-Ak-Suu River)
Figura 2 Morainers and pseudomorainers of the Northen Tien-Shan
(in the basin of Ala-Archa River, Kirgiz Ala-Too Range)
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Figura 3 Pceudomoraines of Pamir (in Zaalay Range)
Figura 4 Moraines and pseudomoraines of Himalayas (in the valley of Khumbu River)
Both these problems can be resolved with the help of
methods we offer for moraines and pceudomoraines
differentiation and receiving of reliable moraines
dating by using autochthonous organics by the
method of radiocarbon dating.
For reliable differentiation of moraines from
pceudomoraines we received genetic features of these
sediments in the form of quantitative faciallithological indicators (geochemical, granulometric)
(Shatravin, 1994a; Shatravin, 1994b). Application of
these data in the mountains of Tien-Shan and Pamir
allowed us to found out that only Pleistocene
glaciation had existed in these areas and had place in
late Pleistocene.
In moraines we have found autochthonous glaciochionophilous (special glacial) fine-dispersed
organics disseminated in fine-grained morainic
material; its nature was identified and shown the
possibilities for this organic usage for radiocarbon
dating of moraines. Methodological approaches were
offered for carrying out the complex of field and
laboratory works preceding radiocarbon analysis of
morainic samples. Together these approaches
represent new unconventional approach for
radiocarbon dating of moraines and allowing to
identify accurately the age of moraines ( Shatravin,
1998; Shatravin, 2007b); this approach is applied
successfully for dating of Holocene moraines of the
Tien-Shan (Shatravin, 2007a; Shatravin, et al.,
2011a; Shatravin, 2012). In parallel radiocarbon
analyses were carried out in two independent
laboratories – in the Laboratory of Geochronology of
Saint-Petersburg
University
(Russia),
using
traditional radiometric facilities; and in Viennese
Atomic Institute (Austria) with the use of AMC
technique. Good repeatability of results was received.
This permits to accept the dispersed organic method
for radiocarbon dating of moraines.
It should be mentioned that the selection of samples
by this method for radiocarbon dating of moraines is
very effortful: in order to select own sample it is
necessary to carry out excavation in moraine
attaining several cubic meters (Figura 5). However,
there are no alternatives for this method of moraines
dating.
5
Figura 5 Sampling for radiocarbon dating of fine-grained morainic material
In Holocen moraine-glacial complexes we have
found morphologically apparent stage of Holocene
glaciations degradation in the Tien-Shan, Pamir and
Himalayas (Figura 6-10), where
not less than seven main stages may be found out
(Shatravin, 2007a; Mamatkanov et al., 2010;
Shatravin, 2011a; Shatravin, 2011b; Shatravin,
2012). Their exact amount, as well as the amount of
small stage moraine line to be identified.
Figura 6 Morphologically apparent staged moraines (I -VII) in Tez-Ter moraine-glacial complex (basin of the AlaArcha River, the Northern Tien-Shan)
Figura 7 The same –on a spacephoto
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Figura 8 Stadial (1 – 6) generations of moraine -glacial complex in the valley of Altyn-Dara River (Northern
Pamir). 7th stage is out of sight
.
Figura 9 Stadial generations of the Holocene moraine-glacial
complex Duw Glacier (Himalayas). Photo of Alton Byers
Moraines of little glaciers, mainly corrie glaciers are
the most appropriate for radiocarbon dating of
Holocene moraines and relevant paleoglaciological
reconstructions. Little glaciers are located away from
the centers of mountain ranges glaciations and that is
why they react more sensitively on climatic changes,
graving such changes in form of stadial moraine
shafts. The following radiocarbon dating were
received for the first three stadial moraines of
Holocene glaciations of one of moraine-glacial
complex of the Tien-Shan (Figura 10): 8000, 5000
and 3400 years ( Shatravin, 2007b; Mamatkanov et
al., 2010; Shatravin 2012).
On the base of the received data we offered the
scheme of stadial degradation of the Holocene
glaciation in the mountains of Tien-Shan (Figura 11),
which took place according to the principle of
damped oscillations ( Shatravin, 2007b; Mamatkanov
et al., 2010; Shatravin, 2011a; Shatravin, 2011b;
Shatravin, 2012).
7
Figura 10 Stadial moraines (I-V) of Holocene moraine glacial-complex of corrie type in the basin of Turgen-Aksuu
River (the Northern Tien-Shan) with specifying sampling
areas for radiocarbon dating
Figura 11 Schematic model of Tien-Shan glaciations degradation in the Holocene: Horizontal axis – time scale
(thousands of years); I-VII – glaciations stages, 8000, 5000, 3400 – age of stadial moraines, years; ? – estimated next
stage of the glaciation
The last shaft on this schematic model (located beyond
zero age mark) is extrapolative by forecasting, taking into
account really observed regularities. It represents the
greatest interest in
long-term forecasting of glacial and climate changes, as
on its amplitude (future next splash of modern glaciation),
starting time and duration will depend climate and
glaciation in foreseeable future not only of the Tien-Shan,
but the whole Central Asian region. The dating of the
other stadial moraines – is a way to long-term forecast of
glacial and climatic changes.
This scheme may serve as a basis of accurate long-term
forecast on which anthropogenic factors of glaciations
and climate changes in Central Asia should be imposed.
8
Certainly, this scheme requires significant improvement
by receiving the dating of other stadial moraines of the
Holocene glaciations.
For more detailed paleoglaciological reconstruction of the
Holocene glaciation radiocarbon dating should be
combined with isotope-oxygen (basing on ratio of
isotopes 16О/18О) and isotope-uranium investigation of
glaciers. Isotope-oxygen studying of glaciers became
rather popular among glaciologists; they count on the
results of such researches to use them in paleoclimatic
reconstruction and in long-term forecast. For this purpose,
in mountains of Eurasia a number of the Tien-Shan,
Caucasus, Altai, Tibet and Himalayas, as well as
Scandinavia and Antarctica glaciers has been drilled by
this time. However, a weak point of the isotope-oxygen
studying of glaciers is definition of absolute age of ice
cores.
It is performed with the use of ratio-based models of age
and depth of glacial thicknesses, constructed on the basis
of
characteristics
of
flow
(Bowen,
1981).
The method of radiocarbon dating of moraines we offer
allow to date the isotope-oxygen temperature curve of
past received during drilling of mountain glaciers, that is
to adhere it to reliable age scale. For this purpose, it is
necessary to select series of samples on contacts of glacial
ice and a superficial (ablative) moraine covering (Figura
12, 13). Samples of ice will be used for isotope-oxygen
analyses and samples of autochthonic organic substance
from moraines will be used for radiocarbon dating.
Figura 12 The frontal ledge of Holocene moraine -glacial complex in one of valleys
of the Northern Tien-Shan: 1 – outcrop of glacial ice; 2 – ablative moraine;
3, 4 – stadial moraine-glacial generations
Figura 13 The outcrop of glacial ice in Holocene moraine of the same moraine-glacial complex
9
Glaciers in mountains are not only reducing by size
but also are shielding, that is covering by the cover of
glacial moraine. All this may lead in foreseeable
future to significant reduction of glacial runoff.
At the first stage of glaciers shielding (when the
thickness of moraine cover is insignificant), their
melting is accelerating and increasing the module of
runoff. Further, the increasing of thickness of moraine
cover will lead to reduction of ice melting, up to its
complete termination. Glaciers in this case like conserved
(Figura 14-15). Shielding of glaciers is going very intensive.
Figura 16 shows the example of shielding Ak-Say and
Uchitel glaciers in Kirghizskiy Range of the Tien-Shan for
the recent 40-50 years. Not only little and middle glaciers
are shielding but also glaciers-giants, like Inylchek (TienShan), Fedchenko (Pamir) and huge glaciers of Himalayas
(Khumbu, Imdja, etc) – Figura 17-19.
Figura 14 Typical open and shielded glaciers of the Northern Tien-Sham
(basin of Sokuluk River, Kirghiz Range)
Figura 15 Shielding (black background) and open (white background) parts glaciers
in the valley of Chon-Ak-Suu River (Kungey-Ala-Too Range, the Northern Tien-Shan)
10
.
Figura 16 Significant part of Ak-Say (on the right) and Uchitel (Kirghiz Range, the Northern Tien-Shan) glaciers are
shielded by ablative moraine
Figura 17 Shielded (black background) and open (white background) parts of Inylchek glacier.
The length is 57 km
Figura 18 Shielded (black background) and open (white background) parts
of Fedchenko glacier. The length of the glacier is 78 km
11
Figura 19 Shielded (black background) and open (white background) parts
of Himalaya’s glaciers in the area of Everest (8848 m)
It is necessary to make long-term forecast not only of
glaciations but shielding of mountain glaciations and
reduction of glacial runoff caused by it. How quickly will
modern glaciers in future “go” under moraine? What will
affect glacial runoff more – reduction of glaciers sizes or
their shielding factor? We need to answer these questions
studying shielding glaciers, as well as tendencies and
speed of shielding in forecasting aspect.
The glacier runoff from shielded parts of glaciers is in
contact with moraines deposits and as it had been shown
earlier (Tuzova, Shatravin, 1994; Tuzova et al., 1994) it
leads to increase of isotope shift in the uranium of glacial
waters, i.e. to increase not only off general content of
uranium in thawed snow, but also to increase of 234U
excess in them. Complex researches of open and
variously shielded (according to thickness of moraine
cover) glaciers with the use of isotopic methods are
required. It is necessary to study modern representative
moraine-glacial complexes for future forecast objects. It
is important to allocate morphologically apparent stadial
moraine-glacial generations in them and define a share of
actual glacial runoff and runoff from variously shielded
moraine-glacial generations.
3. Discussion
There are reports on threateningly fast degradation of
glaciers in the Central Asia.
Thus, in www.climatechange.ru/node/4 it is stated that the
thickness of Himalaya glaciers thaws with a speed of 1015 m/year and 2/3 of glaciers of China will have
disappeared by 2060, and by 2100 the glaciers will have
melted down completely. According to (The Second
National Statement…, 2006), the quantity of glaciers in
the Tien-Shan located on the territory of the Kyrgyz
Republic can be tens times reduced by 2100. Only open
parts of glaciers were considered during estimation. In
this connection, the forecast of glacial disaster in abovestated sources is not well founded. To obtain the objective
picture, it is necessary to study shielded glaciers,
including their historic-genetic aspect with the use of
modern isotope methods.
It should be mentioned that there are no separate
Holocene glaciers or moraines in the mountains of TienShan, but there are moraine-glacier complexes. Figura 12,
13, 21 show the outcrops of glacier ice in moraine-glacial
complexes of the Tien-Shan and Himalaya. This
complexes contain significant resources of ice in the form
of ice bodies shielded by moraine covers.
Ice resources in moraine-glacial complexes are some kind
of preserved stocks of ice, which give water at a slower
rate than open glaciers do. Their runoff is rather steady
during all the seasons of a year. Figura 20 shows the
Holocene moraine-glacial complex of a glacier and the
Karabatkak lake, which are under study of the Tien-Shan
High Mountain Research Center (TSHMRC) under the
Institute of Water Problems and Hydro Power of the
National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic
(IWP&HP NAS KR). In the foreground of the Figura 20
(from every side of the lake) – are not moraines, but
glacial bodies of different age generations shielded by
ablative moraines. They (and other, similar to them in
different cases) are not listed in the catalog of glaciers of
Tien-Shan (Catalog of USSR Glaciers, 1967), where only
parts of glaciers marked by the Figure 1 within end part of
the glacier were included.
12
Figura 20 Moraine-glacial complex of Karabatkak, Basin of the Chon-Aksuu River
(Northern Tien-Shan)
Figura 21 Ice outcrop (1) under ablative moraine in end part of Changri Shar Glaicer (Himalaya); 2 – channels of
intra-glacial runoff
To make long-term forecast of glacier shielding and
reduction of glacial runoff caused by it, it is
necessary to carry out uranium-isotope researches on
the moraine-glacial complexes together with
morphological studying and radiocarbon dating. Here
we rely on features of glacial lithogeneses and
formation of moraines of mountain glaciers
established by us, whereby organic matter in form of
glacio-chionophilous microorganisms inhabiting
glaciers play decisive role (Shatravin, 1994b). This
organic matter as well as any other organic
substance, sorbs uranium and its isotopes. The
uranium-isotopic investigations will let us to allocate
generations of different ages in Holocene moraineglacial complexes and to establish a share of each
component in general runoff of mountain rivers,
including the runoff from open and shielded parts of
glaciers.
4. Conclusions
In order to reliably differentiate moraines from
pceudomoraines we have received quantitative faciallithological figures (granulometric and geochemical
characteristics). Application of these figures allows to
eliminate initial causes of numerous contradictions
having place in Paleoglaciology of Quaternary period.
The method for receiving reliable radiocarbon dating
13
of moraines with the use of autochthonous organic
matter dispersed in fine-grained morainic material was
developed. By the example of the Tien-Shan, Pamir
and the Himalayas we have found out that the
Holocene glaciations degraded stadially according to
decaying principle. 7 main stages may be distinguished
in it. Absolute dating of the first free stages was
received: 8000, 5300 and 3700 years. On its basis a
schematic model for long-term forecasting of natural
glacial and climatic changes was constructed. Dating of
further stages is a right way to soonest reception of
long-term forecast of climate and glaciations. The
application of uranium-isotope and isotope-oxygenic
researches of the Holocene glacial and moraines will
allow to improve (precise and detail) this model.
Joining of international efforts are essential for further
researches in this direction.
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