Quantifying current and preindustrial occurrence of inorganic aluminium in Swedish surface waters S. J. KÖHLER1 , M. ERLANDSSON1, J. FÖLSTER1, H. , K. BISHOP1,2, S. LÖFGREN1 1 Department of Aquatic and Environmental Sciences, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Box 7050, 75007, Uppsala, Sweden 2 Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, 75236, Uppsala, Sweden Keywords: alumininum, organic acidity, acidification assessments The occurrence of elevated concentrations of inorganic aluminum (Ali) in surface waters is critical for evaluating current acidity status and liming operations in Sweden as concentrations of above 30 ppb may affect certain fish species. A combined statistical and hydrochemical analysis of a large number of acid sensitive lakes all over Sweden was used to quantify the occurrence of Ali and to estimate projected changes of Ali in those surface waters. It is possible to arbitrarily separate lakes with high (> 50ppb Ali but not >25 ppb) using ANC and strong organic acid anions as proposed by Lawrence et al. (2010). For this we slightly adapted an earlier version of the strong organic acid approach presented by Köhler et al. (2001) to identify a breakpoint from which on Ali is below 50 ppb. We then tested whether MAGIC predicted changes in pH would allow distinguishing those lakes from the remaining data set. A calculated delta pH of 0.4 pH, that is currently used an assessment criterion for acidified lakes, is not sufficient to identify these lakes. Instead 50% of lakes with a calculated delta pH > 0.4 still had Ali below 50ppb. The occurrence of naturally high concentrations of inorganic aluminum is driven by the presence of organic acids, fluoride and pH and any changes in any of those parameters over time will affect the determination of natural background levels. Concentrations of at least 25 ppb have to be regarded as natural in large areas of a landscape that is mostly covered by weakly buffered soils draining organic rich waters. An empirical set of equations for calculating the occurrence of Ali from pH, TOC and fluoride explained more than 90% of the observed variation in Ali. This model together with the projected changes in pH at those sites using the Swedish MAGIC library were used to quantify the potential changes in Ali between 1860 and 2010. Changes in pH of at least 1 pH unit were necessary to augment the presence of inorganic aluminum by more than 25ppb. i.e a doubling of the concentration from a natural background. Only a combined use of MAGIC predicted pH and the strong acid anion concept can identify lakes with Ali above 25ppb. Predicted changes in pH and Ali in the MAGIC code are very sensitive to the organic acid model. Predicted changes of Ali over time have therefore to be considered very carefully and were possible they should be verified with other approaches. References Köhler, S. Löfgren, S., Wilander, A., Bishop, K. (2001) A simple tool to predict and analyze organic acid anion charge in low ionic strength surface waters. Water, Air and Soil Pollution 130, 1-4: 799-2804. Lawrence, G. B.; Sutherland, J. W.; Boylen, C. W.; Nierzwicki-Bauer, S. W.; Momen, B.; Baldigo, B. P.; Simonin, H. A. (2007) Acid rain effects on aluminum mobilization clarified by inclusion of strong organic acids. Environ. Sci. Technol., 41 (1), 93–98, DOI:10.1021/es061437v. Sjöstedt, C. S., Gustafsson, J. P.; Köhler, S. J. (2010) Chemical Equilibrium Modeling of Organic Acids, pH, Aluminum, and Iron in Swedish Surface Waters. Environmental Science & Technology, 44, (22), 8587-8593.