Documentation of Production:
Allied Medical Publication 8
Planning Guide for the Estimation of Battle Casualties (Chemical)
Carl Curling
Julia Burr
Lusine Danakian
Deena Disraelly
James Colin McGee
July 2005
CONTENTS
PREFACE ........................................................................................................................... iii
I.
INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 1
A. AMedP-8 DOCUMENTATION OBJECTIVES ................................................................ 1
B.
AMedP-8 PURPOSE, CONCEPT, AND ASSUMPTIONS .............................................. 1
C.
AMedP-8 HISTORY .......................................................................................................... 3
D. AMedP-8 REVISION TIMELINES................................................................................... 4
II.
EVOLUTION AND OVERVIEW OF AMedP-8 CHEMICAL ..................................... 6
A. AMedP-8 CHEMICAL DERIVES FROM AMedP-8 NUCLEAR .................................... 6
1.
Tactical Scenarios............................................................................................................... 6
2.
Attack Details ..................................................................................................................... 7
3.
Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 7
4.
Presentation Format ............................................................................................................ 7
B.
INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS SPECIFIC TO AMedP-8 CHEMICAL ......................... 8
1.
Agents................................................................................................................................. 8
2.
Munitions and Attack Intensities ........................................................................................ 9
3.
Meteorology ....................................................................................................................... 9
4.
Physical Protection ........................................................................................................... 10
5.
Casualty Estimation Methodology ................................................................................... 11
III.
CHEMICAL EXPOSURE ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY ................................... 12
A. INPUTS FOR CHEMICAL EXPOSURE ESTIMATION .............................................. 12
1.
Tactical Arrangement of Units on Battlefield .................................................................. 13
a.
Heavy Brigade .................................................................................................................. 13
b.
Support Brigade................................................................................................................ 17
c.
Light Infantry Brigade ...................................................................................................... 17
2.
Agent Data........................................................................................................................ 18
3.
Delivery System and Munitions Data............................................................................... 18
4.
Meteorological Data ......................................................................................................... 18
B.
INTERMEDIATE CALCULATIONS ............................................................................. 19
1.
Chemical Agent Clouds.................................................................................................... 19
2.
Aimpoint Determination................................................................................................... 21
C.
CALCULATION OF AGENT EXPOSURE ................................................................... 27
1.
BioStrike Evaluation Mode .............................................................................................. 27
2.
BioStrike Output Format .................................................................................................. 28
3.
Post-processing of Protection Available Case Data ......................................................... 29
IV.
CASUALTY ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY ...................................................... 31
A. CALCULATION OF EQUIVALENT DOSE .................................................................. 32
B.
CORRELATION OF EXPOSURE TO INJURY SEVERITY CATEGORIES............... 33
1.
Generating Injury Severity Category Tables .................................................................... 33
2.
Determining Injury Severity Category ............................................................................. 39
V.
CALCULATION OF POST-ATTACK PERFORMANCE CAPABILITY .................... 42
A. DETERMINING SIGN/SYMPTOM SEVERITY PROFILES .................................... 51
B.
PHYSICAL EFFECTIVENESS AS A FUNCTION OF PERFORMANCE ............ Error!
Bookmark not defined.
C.
GENERATION OF PERFORMANCE TABLES............................................................ 55
VI.
A.
B.
VII.
VIII.
IX.
A.
B.
X.
REMAINING METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS ..................................................... 56
EXPOSURE RANGE SELECTION………………………………………………….…47
TABLE GENERATION…………………………………………………………………47
AMedP-8 CHEMICAL DOCUMENT APPEARANCE……………...…………………49
SUMMARY OF CASUALTIES BY SCENARIO………………………………………51
OBSERVATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS.……..………………………...….…...……55
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE VERSIONS OF AMedP-8 CHEMICAL…....55
CONCLUSIONS.………………………………………………………………………..56
DEFINITIONS…………………………………………………...………………………58
APPENDICES
A:
B:
C:
D:
E:
F:
G:
H:
I:
J:
K:
L:
M:
Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver Battalion, Movement to Contact……........A-1
Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area, Movement to Contact….......................B-1
Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver Battalion, Offense……………..………......C-1
Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver Battalion, Defense……………..………....D-1
Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area, Offense and Defense………………….E-1
Support Brigade…………………....……………………………………............F-1
Light Infantry Brigade………………..................……………………….............G-1
TOE Information…………………………………….………………………….H-1
Data Processing…………...….…………………………………………….……I-1
Determination of Effective Dose ………………………..………………..…….J-1
Construction of Exposure Ranges…………………………………...………....K-1
Performance Factor Measures…………………..……...……………………….L-1
References………………………………………………...…………………....M-1
PREFACE
I.
A.
INTRODUCTION
AMedP-8 DOCUMENTATION OBJECTIVES
This report provides a record of the production of Allied Medical Publication 8,
Medical Planning Guide of NBC Battle Casualties, Volume III – Chemical (AMedP-8
Chemical), in a collaborative effort involving the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA),
Pacific-Sierra Research Corporation (PSR) and SAIC. The documentation herein discusses
the development of AMedP-8, revealing its technical basis by focusing on underlying
algorithms, assumptions, and data.
B.
AMedP-8 PURPOSE, CONCEPT, AND ASSUMPTIONS
AMedP-8 is designed to estimate the numbers and types of patients resulting from the
military use of nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons. AMedP-8 Chemical provides
estimates of casualties and remaining operational strength after a single attack of either a
persistent nerve agent, a non-persistent nerve agent, or a blister agent on a brigade-size unit
during an out-of-area contingency operation. These estimates consist of the numbers, injury
type, and injury severity of patients based on several brigade scenarios. The scenarios consist
of single releases of chemical agents in the unit area of one of three different brigade-size
units, with or without the availability of physical protection.
AMedP-8 will find a target-audience across the full range of military personnel who
use casualty estimates in planning and executing operations. The planning guide was
envisioned as especially useful for crisis or contingency planning, where a chemical weapon
attack is imminent or has occurred and rapid casualty estimation is necessary for response.
For example, AMedP-8 will aid operational planners and commanders who must assess
impact on mission, select courses of action, maintain awareness, and respond to changes in
battle tempo; and personnel managers who must plan for replacements for killed or wounded
in action (KIA, WIA), medical casualties, and/or those personnel whose performance is
degraded to an extent that warrants replacement or augmentation. Additionally, it will prove
useful for surgeons, medical planners, and logistics managers who must plan for—and
respond to—sudden requirements for supplies (especially medical) of unusual types and
numbers.
AMedP-8 is meant to serve as a single reference that leads the user to a table or to a
cell in a table that provides a supportable estimate of casualties resulting from the unique
combination of units, mission, and weapon of interest. The assumptions made in the design
1
and development of this manual must be clearly understood to allow for proper use of the
casualty estimation tables. The most significant of these assumptions are:










Casualty estimates are based on scenarios consisting of brigade-sized units
in tactical formations.
Missions consist of out-of-area operations. Specifically, the terrain is
modeled as a flat, open plain and troops are dispersed over relatively large
areas. Urban, forested, or mountainous terrains are not considered.
The chemical weapons are persistent nerve agent (VX), non-persistent nerve
agent (GB), or blister agent (HD).
The weapon delivery systems are aerial bombs, tactical ballistic missiles
(TBMs), and rounds from multiple rocket launch systems/artillery batteries
(MRLS/artillery). Submunitions and non-exploding munitions, such as
aerosol generators and aerial spray tanks, are not considered. The attack
intensities are characterized as light, moderate, or heavy.
The optimization of aimpoints was designed to maximize the load on the
medical system. Thus aimpoints were chosen to maximize the number of
individuals with exposures causing injurious but less-than-lethal effects.
All personnel are assumed to be engaged in extravehicular, unsheltered
activities at the time of chemical attack, and have not been warned or
prepared to expect a chemical attack. Only individual physical protection is
considered, and two cases are addressed: protection unavailable and
protection available.
All personnel are trained to don individual protective equipment within a
certain time limit; they don a protective mask and hood within one minute
and an overgarment, overboots, and gloves within nine minutes.
Worst-case conditions are also modeled for weather, defined as conditions
that would give rise to agent concentrations greater than or equal to
incapacitating levels distributed over the largest geographic area.
Temperature, local attack time, wind speed, and cloud cover reflect the
meteorology of Southwest Asia. Worst-case conditions may vary with type
of agent and munitions. For example, atmospheric stability, wind speed,
and/or temperature may affect agent persistence and/or exposure conditions.
Precipitation is not considered; however, HD skin hazards are modeled for
wet skin, which is associated with rain and/or warm temperatures and high
relative humidity.
Units are assumed to continue to execute their missions even after a
chemical weapon attack. The operational tempo requires all but the most
injured personnel to continue operations. An exposed individual must be
significantly incapacitated to be evacuated for medical care. This leads
directly to the definition of a “casualty.”
The performance of an exposed individual must be degraded to less than or
equal to 25% of original capability for him or her to be considered a
casualty and enter the medical system. However, once an individual is
2
defined as a casualty, he or she must recover to at least 75% of original
capability before he or she can leave the medical system and be considered
“Returned to Duty” (RTD).
C.
AMedP-8 HISTORY
The history of AMedP-8 Chemical begins with the development of AMedP-8
Nuclear. Although the current revision of AMedP-8 Nuclear was first conceived in 1992, its
basis was established thirty years back with the publication of A System for Estimating the
Medical Load in Nuclear Warfare on December 14, 1959 by the Walter Reed Army Institute
of Research. This new methodology allowed the user to estimate, given the size of a unit and
the yield and offset distance of a nuclear weapon, the fraction and types of injuries that
would result. It assumed that personnel in the unit were uniformly distributed in an ellipse
centered on the offset distance and of the same size as the unit area. At the time of
publication, fewer than 15 years after Hiroshima, the casualty estimation methodology was
classified SECRET, and only fifty copies were released. This eventually evolved into
AMedP-8, which remained specifically nuclear until 1996. Thus, although chemical and
biological weapons were a relatively old technology compared to nuclear weapons, it took
most of the twentieth century to develop an adequate casualty estimation methodology that
allowed for an internationally accepted doctrine.
The year 1994 gave rise to the idea that the baseline methodology developed by the
Defense Nuclear Agency’s Intermediate Dose Program (IDP)1 could be extended from
nuclear effects to chemical and biological weapon effects. The Defense Nuclear Agency’s
Improved Casualty Estimation (DICE)2 methodology extended the modeling of performance
degradation from nuclear weapon effects to include the effects of chemical and biological
weapons with one simplifying assumption and a limited amount of further research. The
simplifying assumption is that performance degradation is similar for similar severities of a
symptom, without regard to the causative agent for that symptom. Thus, nausea and
vomiting are debilitating whether caused by overexposure to radiation, poisoning by a nerve
agent, or bacterial illness. Given this assumption, all that remained was to define the
symptoms resulting from chemical or biological exposure. Performance degradation from
symptoms equivalent to those caused by nuclear weapons could now be directly calculated.
For those symptoms with no nuclear equivalent, additional research along the lines of the
IDP was required.
1
2
Anno et al., 1984
Deverill et al., 1994
3
This allowed the US to propose a new AMedP-8 revision in 1996: adding Biological
and Chemical casualty estimation as volumes II and III to the Planning Guide for the
Estimation of Battle Casualties, Volume I – Nuclear. These new documents built upon the
concepts introduced with the new AMedP-8 Nuclear, expanded to include chemical and
biological agents, appropriate delivery systems, and (in Volume II – Biological) additional
tactical scenarios. The user of the manual, given some estimate of the types of agents and
delivery systems to be used, and the type, posture, and mission of the military unit of interest,
could estimate resulting casualties by injury type and time of onset, as well as estimate the
performance capability of unit members as a function of time after exposure.
D.
AMedP-8 REVISION TIMELINES
Revision and ratification of AMedP-8 is governed by the traditions and practices of
the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Within NATO, the Nuclear, Biological,
and Chemical (NBC) Medical Working Group (NBCMedWG) is tasked with developing
doctrine and procedures relevant to the medical protection and treatment of military
personnel exposed to NBC agents. The NBC Defense Staff Officer of The US Army Office
of the Surgeon General (OTSG) serves as the US Head of Delegation for the NBCMedWG
and, as such, represents the US positions and interests. Outside of the regular meetings of the
NBCMedWG, the United States also is Custodian of NATO Standardization Agreements
(STANAGS) for the estimation of casualties resulting from the use of NBC weapons. The
NATO Planning Guide for the Estimation of NBC Battle Casualties is presented in three
volumes: Volume I – Nuclear (STANAG 2475), Volume II – Biological (STANAG 2476),
and Volume III – Chemical (STANAG 2477). The Custodian is responsible for maintaining
the STANAG in a current and relevant form and reviewing each document at least once
every three years. Reviews are conducted formally in Custodial Meetings, sponsored by the
Custodian and attended by all interested Allies. Revisions to the STANAGS are submitted in
Study Drafts, which are circulated for comment among the Allies. Once general consensus
has been reached that the revised STANAG is complete and correct, it is submitted as a
Ratification Draft through the Secretary of the NBCMedWG to the NATO Army Board for
distribution, review, implementation, and ratification. Ratification is approved and the
STANAG is promulgated upon agreement by two-thirds (2/3) of the member nations that the
STANAG will be implemented.
The division of AMedP-8 into three STANAGs was part of the guidance, in 1996, of
the NATO Army Board. The NBCMedWG was instructed to split AMedP-8 into three
volumes, and publish nuclear, biological, and chemical casualty estimation in separate
4
STANAGs (2475, 2476, and 2477, respectively). The US, as Custodian, proposed AMedP-8
Chemical to NATO in 1996, followed by Study Draft 1 in 1997. Study Draft 2 followed
rapidly on September 25, 1997, and Study Draft 3 was presented at the NBC Medical
Working Group meeting in 1998. Final comments were solicited and integrated into the
document: The Ratification Draft was distributed to the nations on September 10, 1998. By
2000, five nations (BE, GR, LU, TU, NL) had responded to the ratification request. Only
one (NL) chose not to ratify. In 2001, five more nations had ratified (CZ, DA, IT, UK, US),
but that was still one nation short of the requirement for promulgation. That requirement was
met in 2002 when two more nations (CA, SP) ratified the document. AMedP-8 Chemical
STANAG 2477 was promulgated on 25 April 2002. At this time (2004), a total of 12 nations
(all above, plus GE) have ratified AMedP-8 Chemical.
5
II.
EVOLUTION AND OVERVIEW OF AMedP-8 CHEMICAL
The second of three planned volumes of AMedP-8 to be developed, the chemical
volume incorporates the same underlying philosophy, approach, and format first established
in the nuclear volume. Inherent differences between chemical and nuclear warfare warrant
different assumptions, inputs, and analytical tools to estimate casualties. This section
compares the assumptions, inputs, and methodology used in the nuclear and chemical
volumes.
A.
AMedP-8 CHEMICAL DERIVES FROM AMedP-8 NUCLEAR
Development of AMedP-8 Chemical was guided by the principle that it be as
consistent as possible with AMedP-8 Nuclear. Thus, many of the inputs, assumptions, and
formatting of AMedP-8 Nuclear have been adopted regarding tactical scenarios, attack
details, casualty estimation methodology, and presentation format of estimates.
1.
Tactical Scenarios
AMedP-8 Chemical considers the same seven tactical scenarios as AMedP-8 Nuclear:







Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver,3 Movement to Contact
Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Offense
Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Defense
Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area, Movement to Contact
Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area, Offense and Defense
Light Infantry Brigade, Defense
Support Brigade
Units are configured as for an out-of-area operation. They are relatively dispersed
and are assumed to be operating in flat, open terrain.
Protection is available in both AMedP-8 Nuclear and Chemical. Although tactical
scenarios contain vehicles, tents, and other forms of shelter, unlike AMedP-8 Nuclear,
AMedP-8 Chemical disregards these forms of collective protection. Instead, it assumes that
all targeted personnel are unsheltered, and individual protection is available. Similar to
AMedP-8 Nuclear, AMedP-8 Chemical assumes that personnel do not receive pre-exposure
prophylaxis or post-exposure treatment.
“Forward Maneuver” and “Forward Maneuver Battalions” are used interchangeably in this document and its
appendices.
3
6
2.
Attack Details
Casualty estimates presented in AMedP-8 Chemical are for single attacks occurring
individually in a given scenario (similar to AMedP-8 Nuclear); however, it ventures further
to consider attacks of varying intensity (light, moderate, heavy) for a given weapon type and
scenario. Determination of aimpoints differs from AMedP-8 Nuclear; aimpoints are
optimized to produce the greatest number of casualties entering the medical system within
the targeted sub-operational area (battalion or brigade). Furthermore, casualty estimates
include personnel located within both the targeted and downwind hazard areas of the
operational area or brigade.
Similar to AMedP-8 Nuclear, AMedP-8 Chemical presents “worst-case” casualty
estimates. Thus, attack parameters are based on assumptions that maximize the number of
casualties and the resulting workload for the medical system: the availability of individual
physical protection is considered for all scenarios; personnel do not receive medical preexposure prophylaxis or post-exposure medical care; target locations are selected to
maximize the number of personnel that are expected to enter the medical system as
casualties; and, attacks occur under worst-case meteorological conditions. These
assumptions are discussed further in Section II.B.
3.
Methodology
As in AMedP-8 Nuclear, AMedP-8 Chemical casualty estimates are derived from the
evaluation of effects of single attacks against static troop formations. The estimates begin
with calculation of the amount of agent to which individuals within the troop formation are
exposed as a result of an attack. Then the effects of the attacks are characterized by the signs
and symptoms experienced by individuals given their level of exposure, and the associated
degradation of their performance over time.
4.
Presentation Format
As in AMedP-8 Nuclear, AMedP-8 Chemical provides estimates of the number of
personnel with various types and severity of injury at specified times after exposure, the
performance level of unit personnel over time, and the number of fatalities over time.
To facilitate use of AMedP-8 Chemical, the organization and structure of AMedP-8
Nuclear was retained to the extent possible. The first three sections provide introductory and
background material, an overview of the methodologies used, and a discussion of how to use
the casualty tables presented in subsequent sections. The remaining sections provide
casualty estimates, organized by tactical scenario. Each section in turn comprises subsections
organized by agent and contains estimates for all munitions/attack intensity combinations.
7
B.
INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS SPECIFIC TO AMedP-8 CHEMICAL
Chemical warfare attacks differ from battlefield nuclear warfare attacks in several
aspects. A wide variety of chemical agents can be used in warfare, each of which has unique
dissemination characteristics and human effects. Most conventional munitions can be
modified to deliver chemical agent, and the means of delivery will greatly influence the
effects of the attack. Prevailing meteorological conditions will significantly influence the
size of the area affected by the attack, the concentration of agent within the attack area, and
the persistence of the attack over time.
In developing AMedP-8 Chemical, agents, delivery systems, and attack intensities
were chosen to represent the range of effects. Meteorological conditions were selected to
maximize the effective attack area for a given agent/delivery system combination. Estimates
consider two levels of protection: unavailable and available.
1.
Agents
AMedP-8 Chemical considers three agents: the persistent nerve agent VX, the nonpersistent nerve agent GB (also known as sarin), and the blister agent HD (also known as
distilled mustard).
Persistent chemical agents have low volatility and evaporate very slowly. Once
disseminated, the bulk of the agent remains in liquid form, falling to the ground as droplets,
where it will remain for extended periods of time. Exposure to the agent typically occurs
through contact with the skin.
Non-persistent agents are high-volatility chemicals, evaporating rapidly. Once
disseminated, the bulk of agent is in gaseous form. Exposure to the agent typically occurs
via inhalation of vapor, although chemicals can be absorbed through exposed skin and eyes
as well.
The primary physiological effect of nerve agents is the system-wide buildup of
acetylcholine at nerve-nerve or nerve-muscle junctions, causing toxicity within minutes to
hours after exposure. At lower doses, nerve agent exposure is associated with eye pain,
blurred vision, headache, chest tightness, restricted breathing, nausea, and vomiting. At
higher doses, nerve agent exposure is associated with tremors, convulsions, paralysis,
respiratory failure, and death.
Blister agents cause inflammation, blistering, and general tissue destruction, the locus
and severity of which depend on the quantity and route of exposure. The blister agent
considered here, HD, is of moderate volatility; its dissemination would result in significant
8
hazard from both liquid and vapor. Inhalation of HD vapor can damage the respiratory
system, with symptoms ranging from nausea, dry cough, and sore throat at low doses to
severe chest pain, choking, and death at high doses. Exposure to HD vapor or liquid will
cause burning and swelling of the eyes, and blisters and ulceration of the skin. At high doses,
whole body skin effects are very severe, leading to intoxication and death.
2.
Munitions and Attack Intensities
Most conventional explosive munitions can be modified to disseminate chemical
agents. To represent the range of possible chemical warfare casualties, AMedP-8 Chemical
considers a variety of munitions; for each type of munitions, it considers effects from light,
moderate and heavy intensities of attack. Table II-1 summarizes the munitions and attack
intensities considered in AMedP-8 Chemical. Further information on munitions and attack
details can be found in Appendix I.
Table II-1. Munitions and Attack Intensity Combinations
Attack Intensity
Munitions
Artillery
Bombs
Missiles
Light
152mm Artillery
18 rounds
250kg Bombs
2 rounds
250kg TBM
1 round
Moderate
122mm Rockets
240 rounds
250kg Bombs
12 rounds
500kg TBM
2 rounds
Heavy
122mm Rockets
720 rounds
250kg Bombs
24 rounds
500kg TBM
4 rounds
3.
Meteorology
The casualties resulting from any given chemical agent attack can vary significantly
depending on the meteorological conditions prevailing at the time of attack. The casualty
estimates presented in AMedP-8 Chemical assume worst-case meteorological conditions,
defined as those that would result in agent concentrations greater than or equal to
incapacitating levels distributed over the largest geographic area.
The meteorological conditions that affect agent dissemination include temperature,
cloud cover, atmospheric stability, and wind speed. The worst-case values for any of these
conditions may vary by agent and delivery system because of differences in volatility,
payload, height of burst, and area of impact. Therefore, the development of AMedP-8
Chemical required an assessment of worst-case meteorological conditions specific to the
9
agent/munitions/attack intensity combination considered. SAIC performed this assessment
and their methodology was not available for documentation.4 Section III.A.4 describes input
parameters for meteorology assessment. Appendix I.C.3 contains the meteorological data
used for the production of AMedP-8 Chemical.
4.
Physical Protection
For each scenario, AMedP-8 provides casualty estimates for both protection
unavailable and protection available cases. In all scenarios, personnel are assumed to be
engaged in extra-vehicular activities and unsheltered at the time of attack. Furthermore, all
personnel are assumed to be wearing standard battledress uniform at the initiation of attack.
In the protection unavailable case, personnel are assumed to be exposed to the effects
of agent through all possible routes of entry: skin, eyes, and respiratory tract.
In the protection available case, AMedP-8 considers the use of individual protective
equipment to mitigate or negate the effects of chemical agents. Individual protective
equipment includes a protective mask and hood, overgarment, overboots, and gloves. Note
that casualty estimates disregard the existence of collective protection, such as vehicles and
tents. In the protection available case, it is assumed that immediately following the attack, all
personnel don the mask within one minute and the full protective ensemble within nine
minutes. Personnel are exposed to the agent through skin, eyes, and the respiratory tract;
however, this exposure exists only for the time it takes to don a protective mask, assumed to
be one minute. At this point, individuals are exposed only to the skin effects of agent until
they don the rest of their protective equipment, a process that is assumed to take a total of
nine minutes. Thus, respiratory exposures occur for one minute and body surface exposures
continue for a total of nine minutes.
The assumptions made about the time it takes to don protective equipment are derived
from individual skill set standards and assume that all forces are trained to meet these
standards. They are conservative estimates since they assume all personnel utilize the
maximum amount of time to don equipment. If a soldier has ready access to his equipment,
it may only take a few seconds to put on a mask and fewer than nine minutes to put on the
rest of his ensemble. At the same time, these casualty estimates optimistically assume that
protective equipment fits properly and provides complete protection, and that all soldiers
4
SAIC performed an assessment of worst-case meteorological conditions specific to the agent/munitions/attack
intensity combinations considered in AMedP-8 Chemical. Thus, SAIC generated separate meteorological input
files for each combination, and IDA used these values to develop chemical exposure estimates. Further
information was not available in order to document the SAIC methodology.
10
have their equipment available and don it correctly. In addition, estimates don’t consider
performance decrement not caused by the chemical agent, such as heat stress, fatigue, and
visual decrement. On balance, these assumptions should provide reasonable approximation
of the effects of protective equipment.
5.
Casualty Estimation Methodology
At the very general level, the methodology used to develop the chemical volume is
the same as that used to develop the nuclear volume. From a specific combination of tactical
unit and type of attack (threat agent, delivery system, and attack intensity), the levels of agent
exposure among individuals within the unit are calculated. Given the set of individual
exposures, the fates of individuals are then determined—if and when they become casualties,
the nature and severity of their illnesses, the time over which they are ill, and whether they
recover or die. These data are then tabulated to portray the number of casualties in the unit.
Because attacks with nuclear and chemical weapons are quite different, however, the
nuclear and chemical volumes of AMedP-8 used different analytical tools to calculate
effects. In developing the chemical volume, the Naval Surface Warfare Center’s Vapor,
Liquid, and Solid Tracking Model (VLSTRACK), version 1.6.1, was used to model the
dispersion of chemical agent, in both liquid and vapor forms.5 The output of VLSTRACK
was combined with a three-dimensional (x, y, and time) representation of a tactical unit
within the BioStrike model developed by the Institute for Defense Analyses to determine
individual agent exposures.6 These exposures were then input to the U.S. Defense Nuclear
Agency Improved Casualty Estimation/Intermediate Dosage Program (DICE/IDP) 7
methodology to estimate casualty numbers, illness severity, and performance levels over time
(see Section IV for a detailed discussion of this methodology).
5
Bauer, Timothy J. and Roger L. Gibbs, 1995.
Flythe, 2000.
The use of the BioStrike model requires agent dispersion data reported in a specific format; to streamline the
methodology, IDA developed a variant of VLSTRACK, called GRIDGEN, to report the outputs of
VLSTRACK in a BioStrike-compatible format.
7
McClellan et al., 1988.
6
11
III.
CHEMICAL EXPOSURE ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY
The casualty estimation approach used to develop AMedP-8 begins with determining
agent exposure at the level of the individual or group of individuals (or icon, see below)
based on their location within the scenario and with respect to the attack. This section
describes the methodology used to estimate chemical exposure for icons in each scenario.
Section IV goes on to discuss the methodology for using these exposure estimates to
determine performance degradation and casualty estimates.
Calculating agent exposure at the individual level for all scenarios considered in
AMedP-8 Chemical requires various types of input data; some data are collected as basic
inputs and some are calculated in intermediate steps. Figure III-1 describes the process by
which individual agent exposures are calculated for the AMedP-8 Chemical; input data and
output data are shown as boxes, while analytical tools are shown as ovals.
A.
INPUTS FOR CHEMICAL EXPOSURE ESTIMATION
As shown in Figure III-1, several different types of information are required to
calculate individual chemical agent exposures in any given scenario. These include
information on the tactical arrangement of units on the battlefield (Troop Data), agent data,
delivery system and munitions data (Munitions Data), and meteorological data.
Attack Point
Troop Data
Meteorological Data
Agent Data
Munitions Data
VLSTRACK
(Gridgen)
Biostrike
Agent Cloud
Exposure to Individuals
Figure III-1. Calculating Individual Exposure Levels
12
1.
Tactical Arrangement of Units on Battlefield
AMedP-8 Chemical relies on scenario-based casualty estimation. Scenarios consist
of a tactical arrangement of units on the battlefield, based on doctrinal composition.8 Within
each scenario, the smallest tactical units or systems are called icons, each consisting of one or
several personnel (or crew). The seven scenarios listed in Section II.A were used in AMedP8; each scenario has six subscenarios, or cases. A case is a combination of scenario, agent
(GB, VX, or HD), attack intensity (heavy, moderate, or light), and posture (protection
unavailable, or protection available). The scenarios are organized by brigade and are
discussed in greater detail below. For each scenario, troop data files used as BioStrike inputs
are further described in Appendix I.
a.
Heavy Brigade
The Heavy Brigade consists of six battalions and other assigned elements. The
battalions are two mechanized infantries, one armor, one self-propelled artillery, one
mechanized engineer, and one support battalion. Assigned elements include air defense,
intelligence, military police, and smoke generators. The Heavy Brigade is depicted
performing three missions: movement to contact, offense and defense. The formation and
separation among units and systems varies in each of the tactical missions.
The Heavy Brigade personnel manning level used in this document is 4,042
personnel, which includes supporting units such as air defense. There are 443 armored
vehicles, 778 wheeled vehicles (trucks), and 9 motorcycles. Of the armored vehicles, 76 are
main battle tanks or their derivatives; the remainder are armored fighting vehicles, howitzers,
mortar carriers, etc. Within the truck category, there are 252 light utility (equivalent to the
US HMMWV), 224 5-ton cargo, and 144 8-ton cargo. In the scenarios described below,
trucks predominate in the brigade support area and armored vehicles predominate in the
maneuver area. All vehicle mixes in the targets were assigned as they would be in the
appropriate combat situation.
The area occupied by the Brigade is large relative to the area coverage of the
chemical weapons. Additionally, casualty estimates do not account for protection provided
by trucks and other vehicles; personnel are assumed to be unsheltered at the time of attack
(see Section II.A). Casualties are estimated for different areas of the Brigade targeted: the
maneuver battalions or the brigade support area.
8
Please see Appendix H for tables of organization and equipment (TOEs) referenced to develop the scenarios.
13
Maneuver battalions are targeted in the scenarios
 Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Movement to Contact
 Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Offense
 Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Defense
The brigade support area is targeted in the scenarios
 Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area, Movement to Contact
 Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area, Offense and Defense
The Heavy Brigade and its tactical scenarios are briefly described here; further details
and relevant data can be found in Appendices A through E. Appendix A pertains to the
“Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Movement to Contact” scenario. Table A1 describes
the brigade, at the icon level of detail, in tactical arrangement; Table A2 provides similar
information, arranged according to icon number. These tables display all icons in the heavy
brigade and are not limited to those targeted in this scenario. Figure A-1 provides a tactical
layout of these icons, labeled by task force; included are the Brigade Support Area,
Mechanized Infantry Battalion 1, Mechanized Infantry Battalion 2, and the Tank Battalion
Task Forces.
The Forward Maneuver Task Forces are targeted for attack in the scenario “Heavy
Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Movement to Contact,” while the Brigade Support Area Task
Force is targeted in the scenario “Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area, Movement to
Contact” (see Appendix B). The Tank Battalion Task Force is targeted in the scenarios
“Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Offense” (see Appendix C), and “Heavy Brigade,
Forward Maneuver, Defense” (see Appendix D), but the Brigade Support Area Task Force is
targeted in the scenario “Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area, Offense and Defense” (see
Appendix E). The process for determining aimpoints for attack is described in Section
III.B.2.
The tactical scenarios of the Heavy Brigade are detailed below.
Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Movement to Contact
The Brigade is deployed with two battalion task forces moving on line; the third task
force follows, deployed on line across the width of the brigade (see Figure A-1). The support
elements follow next. Scouts, ground surveillance radar, and some combat engineers are
leading forward of the two task forces on line. The direct support artillery battalion has one
battery traveling with each task force. The direct support engineer battalion has one
company moving with each task force. Air defense and smoke generator assets are located
14
with each task force and the support formation. Within this formation, all companies and
batteries are traveling deployed on line.
Appendix A contains details on unit description and agent exposure effects for this
scenario. Figures A2 and A3 present the tactical layout of the forward maneuver battalions
targeted in this scenario.
Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Offense
The Heavy Brigade in the offense comprises three battalion task forces on line and a
brigade support area. This array presents four basic target areas (three battalion task forces
with support and a brigade support area), three of which are essentially identical. The
battalions are well-dispersed and present individual targets within the brigade area. Thus, the
detailed casualty assessment is presented for a battalion task force and the brigade support
area. Figures C1 and C2 are schematics of the unit deployment. The maneuver force target
comprises three company teams on line, with scouts on both flanks. Behind the teams, the
battalion mortars are deployed in two sections. A direct support artillery battery is deployed
in three groups — two firing platoons and a battery headquarters. An engineer company is
also in direct support. The majority of the engineers are maintained in the company
formation. The battalion retains a reserve company team and a separate combat trains area.
There is a main battalion command post and a tactical command post. The tactical command
post is more forward. The battalion anti-armor company is divided among the reserve,
center, and right flank teams as anti-armor platoons. Air defense and smoke generator assets
are integrated into elements of the formation. Appendix C contains detailed unit descriptions
and agent exposure estimates for this scenario.
Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Defense
As deployed for the defense, the Brigade again provides four elements that may be
targeted: three battalion task forces and a brigade support area; a battalion-size reserve is not
maintained in this situation. As discussed above, this layout provides two basic formations
for casualty estimation, targeting a maneuver unit or the brigade support area. The maneuver
unit is described here and a schematic is provided in Figure D-1; the brigade support area is
described below. In the defense, company teams are not formed; therefore, the armor
company is maintained. The battalion is deployed with scouts and ground surveillance radars
forward of the main defensive positions. Four companies are deployed on line and one is
maintained in reserve. The anti-armor company is not attached out but employed as one of
the companies in the main defensive position. The armor company is designated as the
reserve. The direct support artillery battery is deployed as two platoons with the battery
15
headquarters collocated with one of the platoons. The battalion mortar platoon is divided
into two sections. There is a main command post, a tactical battalion command post, a
combat train area, and a combat engineer company. Air defense and smoke generator assets
are integrated into elements of the formation. Appendix D contains details on unit
description and chemical agent exposure estimates for icons in this scenario.
Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area, Movement to Contact
In movement to contact, elements that constitute the brigade support area are moving
in convoy behind the third task force of the brigade, as shown in Figure B-1. These elements
consist of the brigade support battalion, the logistical elements of all the maneuver battalions,
the brigade main command post, and the support battalion command post. Air defense assets
are integrated into the formation. Most of the units are deployed in multiple parallel
columns.
Appendix B contains details on unit description and agent exposure estimates for the
Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area, Movement to Contact. Note that corresponding icons
(in terms of function) are assigned different icon numbers in movement to contact, compared
to offense and defense.
Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area, Offense and Defense
The brigade support area was assumed to be the same for both the offense and
defense missions. The support area is established along a supply route and units are
deployed as shown in Figure E-1. The bold outline in these figures indicates the unit
boundaries. The support area units include logistical elements for food, maintenance, supply,
limited ammunition, transportation, and medical. Also located in the brigade support area are
logistical elements of the brigade’s organic maneuver battalions. These are two mechanized
infantry, one armor, one mechanized engineer, and one self-propelled artillery battalions.
The brigade rear headquarters and support battalion headquarters are also located here. An
air defense platoon and company headquarters provide point defense from air attack.
Appendix E contains details on unit description and agent exposure estimates, for the Heavy
Brigade, Brigade Support Area, in Offense and Defense. Note that corresponding icons (in
terms of function) are assigned different icon numbers in Movement to Contact, compared to
Offense and Defense.
16
b.
Support Brigade
The Support Brigade is patterned after a combat service support formation that could
support at least one heavy division. The units are stationary and deployed along a main
supply route (see Figure F-1). Units included are:













Supply and Service Company
Heavy Maintenance Company
Light Maintenance Company
Missile Maintenance Company
Direct Support Maintenance Company
Direct Support Supply Company
Field Service Company
Two Truck Companies
Medical Company
Direct Support Ammunition Company
Chemical defense, signal, intelligence, and military police units of platoon
size
Four headquarters elements
Air defense assets are integrated with the units for point defense.
The Support Brigade has a personnel strength of 2,314 divided equally among those
in the open, in tents, and in vans. There are seventy repair or shop vans in which personnel
could be working. The deployment of the support brigade is assumed to be the same,
whether offense or defense. Appendix F contains details on unit description and exposure
estimates for icons in the Support Brigade. Note that casualty estimates are based on the
assumption that all personnel are involved in extravehicular activities at the time of attack.
Thus, collective protection that would be afforded by vehicles and tents was not considered
in AMedP-8 Chemical.
c.
Light Infantry Brigade
The Light Infantry Brigade, comprised of three infantry battalions, an artillery
battalion, and a support battalion, is patterned to emulate an airborne or other light, rapidly
deployable infantry brigade; its assigned mission is perimeter defense of an airfield. The
brigade is deployed with the three battalions forming a 360-degree defense, as if protecting
an aerial port of debarkation in preparation for the receipt of follow-on forces (see Figures
G1 and G2). Each infantry battalion occupies a portion of the perimeter; a company reserve
is maintained in each battalion area. The battalion logistical elements are consolidated with
the brigade support battalion. This brigade has a strength of 3,454 personnel. Appendix G
17
contains details on unit description and agent exposure estimates for the Light Infantry
Brigade. Although the unit descriptions in Appendix G indicate that foxholes are available
for a fraction of the personnel, casualty estimates for the Light Infantry Brigade assume all
personnel are unsheltered at the time of attack.
Agent Data9
As shown in Figure III-1, agent characterization data is one of the inputs into
VLSTRACK. AMedP-8 Chemical calculations used the default set of agent data provided
with the VLSTRACK model to characterize chemical agents. VLSTRACK uses the
following agent characteristics: bulk density, dissemination efficiency, median effective
2.
dose, probit slope, freezing temperature, molecular weight, volatility coefficients, heat of
vaporization, viscosity, surface tension, agent vapor diffusivity in air, and droplet spread
factor. Table I-23 defines the chemical agent characteristics used by VLSTRACK, and Table
I-24 presents the agent data.
Delivery System and Munitions Data10
As with agent data, the calculations made for AMedP-8 Chemical used the default set
of delivery system and munitions data provided with the VLSTRACK model (see Figure III1). The model uses the following delivery system and munitions characteristics: fill weight,
height of burst, firing rate, number of delivery systems in attack, downrange and cross-range
3.
target standard deviations, droplet mass-median diameter, droplet distribution sigma, line
source length, line source fall angle, and cloud sigma. Table I-25 defines the delivery system
and munitions characteristics used by VLSTRACK, and Table I-24 presents the data used to
create AMedP-8 Chemical.
4.
Meteorological Data
As shown in Figure III-1, meteorological data is one of the inputs into VLSTRACK.
Inputs include data for wind direction, wind speed, air temperature, degree of cloud cover,
and the Pasquill stability category. Table I-27 defines the meteorology characteristics used
by VLSTRACK, and Table I-28 presents the meteorology data used for each
munitions/attack intensity combination.
9
Chemical agent data are captured in the VLSTRACK input file VLSAGN.PAR.
Munitions data are captured in the VLSTRACK input file VLSMUN.PAR.
10
18
B. INTERMEDIATE CALCULATIONS
As shown in Figure III-1, the AMedP-8 methodology uses the input data on tactical
formation, agent characteristics, munitions characteristics, and meteorology in a series of
intermediate calculations. These calculations generate an agent “cloud” and determine the
aimpoints to generate that cloud, for use in subsequent calculations.
1.
Chemical Agent Clouds
The chemical agent clouds used in the AMedP-8 methodology are approximations of
the downwind agent hazard resulting from a release of chemical agent, expressed in planar
dimensions over time. As noted in Section II.B.5, the VLSTRACK model, version 1.6.1,
was used to generate chemical agent clouds for AMedP-8.11 The model considers all the
agent, munitions, and meteorology data described above.
Release of chemical agents typically causes significant hazards from both vapor and
liquid, and the transport and dispersion of each is significantly different. Thus, VLSTRACK
generates separate clouds for vapor and liquid forms of agent. The model considers
secondary evaporation of liquid on the ground in addition to the evaporation of the liquid in
the cloud. The secondary evaporation is approximated in the vapor cloud. The cumulative
doses received by personnel over time from both liquid and vapor hazards are considered in
subsequent casualty calculations.
During the development of AMedP-8 Chemical, both vapor and liquid clouds were
created for each combination of agent, delivery system, and attack intensity. However, the
GB liquid clouds were null in all cases and were not considered further in the development of
casualty estimates.
Agent concentration is reported as a two-dimensional grid for each of a series of time
steps. For AMedP-8 Chemical, the grid has 201 points on each side, the maximum allowed
by VLSTRACK. In addition, AMedP-8 agent clouds have self-adjusting grid sizes, meaning
the grid size changes over time to encompass the hazard as it grows after release and then
shrinks as it dissipates.
11
The VLSTRACK model is capable of providing three types of output: deposition, dosage, and
vapor/droplet/particle concentration. Deposition output provides estimates in terms of mg/m2 on the ground.
Dosage output provides estimates in terms of mg-min/m3. Concentration output is in terms of part/m3 of
airborne droplets or particles and was not considered in developing AMedP-8. VLSTRACK can provide output
in four dimensions—three spatial dimensions, and time. In the variant of VLSTRACK used to develop AMedP8, the vertical dimension was restricted to a single point, with output provided for x and y locations on a plane
intersecting the vertical dimension. For deposition, this output was calculated at ground level, or a height of
zero meters; for dosage output, this was calculated at an approximate breathing height of two meters.
19
As noted, the use of the BioStrike model requires agent cloud data reported in a
specific format; to streamline the methodology, IDA developed a version of VLSTRACK,
called Gridgen, to report the outputs of VLSTRACK in a BioStrike-compatible format. The
Gridgen model also manages time steps slightly differently than VLSTRACK. VLSTRACK
version 1.6.1 allows users to specify meteorological data for up to 24 time periods of uniform
duration, which may be as short as one minute or as long as one hour. It will report up to 60
outputs per time period, but the minimum reporting interval is one minute. As with time
periods, reporting intervals are of uniform duration. The GRIDGEN model, on the other
hand, allows users to specify non-uniform time steps, using a scheme illustrated in Figure III2.
NUMBER OF DATA TIME PERIODS
12
NUMBER OF TIME STEPS, BY DATA TIME PERIOD (1 THROUGH NVTIMP,
RESPECTIVELY)
12
24
12
12
12
12
12
12
24
24
24
12
TIME SPACING BETWEEN TIME STEPS, BY DATA TIME PERIOD (MINUTES)
1.00
2.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
Figure III-2. Extract from GRIDGEN Special Inputs File Used For AMedP-8 Chemical
In this case, Gridgen uses 12 data time periods. The first comprises 12 time steps of
one-minute duration; the second, 24 time steps of two-minute duration; the third, 12 time
steps of five-minute duration; and so on. The initial advantage of this scheme over the
default approach used by VLSTRACK was that it allowed users to conserve computational
time.12 Users could choose short, high-resolution, but computationally intense time steps at
those points in the cloud evolution at which the chemical hazard is changing most rapidly—
typically in the immediate aftermath of release—and switch to longer, lower-resolution time
steps at other times where the hazard is changing more slowly.
VLSTRACK v.1.6.1 and IDA’s GRIDGEN adaptation of the model accepts the use
of time varying meteorology in increments of one hour. Although IDA’s GRIDGEN
adaptation of the model allows for meteorological data to be input in user-defined increments
as small as one minute, meteorological data used to develop the chemical volume were input
on an hourly basis.
12
At the time the AMedP-8 Chemical was developed, computational speed was such that single VLSTRACK
runs frequently took several hours to complete. At present, the same runs would take just a few minutes.
20
2.
Aimpoint Determination
The BioStrike model can be run in several modes, two of which were used
extensively in the development of AMedP-8 Chemical. In Maximization mode, BioStrike
will examine all possible attack points within a user-defined search area and output that point
or set of points resulting in the largest number of expected casualties. This calculated
aimpoint can then be used as an input to BioStrike’s Evaluation mode, which will output the
total number of expected casualties and the amount of agent exposure at each troop location.
In the development of AMedP-8 Chemical, the BioStrike Maximization mode was
used to determine the optimal aimpoint for each combination of agent, munitions, and attack
intensity against each tactical scenario. Separate aimpoint calculations were performed for
the protection available and protection unavailable cases.
When using BioStrike Maximization mode, the user must define a search area for
which the model evaluates all possible aimpoints along an x,y grid, with user-defined
distances between grid points. The search area can be any polygonal shape, and the model
can be directed to search either within or outside the boundaries of any of the polygon’s
sides. Because all the delivery systems considered in the chemical volume would typically
be used in on-target attacks, the search area for the AMedP-8 aimpoint calculations was
defined as the area contained within the outer physical boundaries of the tactical unit. In this
case, the model was directed to evaluate aimpoints at 0.5 kilometer distances apart in both
the x and y directions. The search boxes defined for each tactical scenario and the
associated optimal aimpoints are shown in Figures III-3 through III-9 below. Note that for
these figures, cross-wind and down-wind distances are in kilometers.
21
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
5
10
15
Troops
Search Box
20
25
30
Attack Locations
Figure III-3. Optimal Aimpoints: Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Movement to Contact
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
40
38
4
6
8
10
Troops
Search Box
12
14
16
Attack Locations
Figure III-4. Optimal Aimpoints: Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Offense
22
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
0
5
10
Troops
15
Search Box
20
25
Attack Locations
Figure III-5. Optimal Aimpoints: Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Defense
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
5
10
15
Troops
Search Box
20
25
30
Attack Locations
Figure III-6. Optimal Aimpoints: Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area, Movement to Contact
23
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
11
12
13
14
Troops
15
Search Box
16
17
18
19
Attack Locations
Figure III-7. Optimal Aimpoints: Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area, Offense and Defense
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
7
9
11
13
Troops
15
Search Box
17
19
Attack Locations
Figure III-8. Optimal Aimpoints: Support Brigade
24
21
23
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
0
2
4
6
Troops
Search Box
8
10
12
Attack Locations
Figure III-9. Optimal Aimpoints: Light Infantry Brigade
In determining optimal aimpoints in BioStrike, the model typically considers
“optimal” to mean the greatest number of expected casualties. Expected casualties are
calculated using a probit response methodology, where a given level of exposure is
associated with a given probability of effect; the greater the exposure, the more likely it is to
cause injury. Thus, BioStrike would output as “optimal” the aimpoint that would result in
maximal total agent exposure across all troops in the scenario.
For the AMedP-8 Chemical, however, aimpoints were calculated differently. The
objective was not to maximize exposure, per se, but rather to maximize the load on the
medical system. This meant that the modeling had to reflect a desire to maximize the
number of individuals with exposures causing injurious but less-than-lethal effects. Simply
maximizing total exposure could have resulted in proportionately large numbers of prompt
fatalities who would never enter the medical system.
To accomplish this, the first step was to determine the range of doses that would have
the desired level of effect. The ranges selected were based on the injury severity categories
established for each agent.13 For the nerve agents GB and VX, the values associated with
13
See Section IV.B.1 for a discussion of Injury Severity Categories.
25
injury categories 3 through 5 were chosen. For HD, with its combination of ocular, skin, and
respiratory effects, the selection was more difficult. The range eventually chosen represented
the low end of ocular effects on the one hand and the median lethal dose for respiratory
effects on the other. Table III-4 provides the specific values used.
Table III-4. Dose Ranges Used to Determine Optimal Aimpoints
Agent
Lower Bound
Value
3
VX
0.4 mg
HD
5
Severity Category
mg-min/m3
GB
Upper Bound
mg-min/m3
Value
3
30
3
4 mg
Ocular 2
Severity Category
mg-min/m3
1000
5
5
mg-min/m3
Respiratory ~6/ LD50
Skin ~6
Note that in the table above, values for GB and HD are expressed as vapor dosage;
for VX, they are expressed as liquid. BioStrike does not have the capability to evaluate the
combined effects of vapor and liquid exposures in its Maximization mode. Therefore, for
VX and HD releases, which typically have both a vapor and liquid component, the dominant
component—the one with the greatest capability to generate injurious but less-than-lethal
effect—was used to determine optimal aimpoints. For VX, this was liquid, while for HD,
this was vapor. The modeled attacks with GB did not have a liquid component, so all
exposures were calculated using vapor.
The next step was to input these values into the BioStrike general data file. A dose
response curve is generally represented in BioStrike as a series of exposure values with an
associated probability of injury. The variables used are FILLAX, which defines exposure
values, and FILLAY, which defines the injury probability associated with each value of
FILLAX. A standard set of FILLAX and FILLAY values for GB, with an LD50 of 70 mgmin/m3 and a probit slope of 12 would be:
‘FILLAX( 3,.)’ 0.
‘FILLAY( 3,.,1)’ 0.
44.80
51.05
54.74
57.38
59.56
61.50
63.30
65.01
66.68
68.33 …
.01
.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
.45 …
Figure III-10. Standard BioStrike Inputs for GB
For any given calculated exposure, the probability of injury is calculated by
interpolation. In the example above, an exposure of 70.00 mg-min/m3 has a 50% probability
of lethality, while an exposure of 71.71 mg-min/m3 has a 55% probability of lethality. If
26
BioStrike estimates an exposure of 70.68 mg-min/m3, it would calculate an associated 52%
probability of lethality.
To determine optimal aimpoints for AMedP-8 Chemical, the FILLAX and FILLAY
values were designed to exclude exposures outside the selected ranges, while treating all
exposures within those ranges as equally valuable. The set used to optimize GB exposures
was:
‘FILLAX(19,.)’
‘FILLAY(19,.,3)’
2.9999
3.
5.9999
6.
14.9999
15.
29.9999
30.
0.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
0.
Figure III-11. BioStrike Inputs for GB Used to Determine Optimal Aimpoints
As shown, this set of values would ignore all exposures less than 3 mg-min/m3 and
greater than 29.9999 mg-min/m3, while counting every exposure in between as an expected
casualty. When BioStrike is run in Maximization mode, it returns the aimpoint that generates
the greatest number of individuals with exposures within the defined range.
This procedure was used to determine optimal aimpoints for both protection available
and protection unavailable cases. Recall that for the protection available case, it is assumed
that immediately following the attack, all personnel will don the mask within one minute and
the full protective ensemble within nine minutes. To implement this in the BioStrike
Maximization mode, model run time was truncated at appropriate points, given the agent and
its dominant form of exposure. Since ocular and respiratory injuries are the dominant effects
of vapor exposure, exposures were calculated for only the first one minute after attack in the
GB and HD cases; after that point, masking would prevent further ocular or respiratory
exposure. In the VX case, on the other hand, masking alone does not appreciably inhibit
liquid skin exposures, so exposures were calculated for the first nine minutes after attack;
thereafter, the full protective ensemble would prevent further skin exposure.
In the protection unavailable case, on the other hand, the BioStrike model calculated
exposures for the duration of the agent hazard.
C.
CALCULATION OF AGENT EXPOSURE
1.
BioStrike Evaluation Mode
The final step in calculating individual agent exposures involves running the
BioStrike model in its Evaluation mode. In this mode, the model simply overlays agent
clouds on tactical scenarios at optimal aimpoints and calculates the amount of agent exposure
at all grid points occupied by individuals in the tactical scenarios.
27
Typically, the model would then use the set of exposure values (FILLAX) and
associated probability of casualty values (FILLAY) to determine the expected number of
casualties at each grid point given the level of exposure, and sum them to determine the total
number of expected casualties resulting from the postulated attack.
For AMedP-8 Chemical, however, BioStrike was used only to calculate exposure by
grid point;14 the effects of that exposure on personnel were evaluated separately, as described
in Section IV. Since BioStrike does not typically include zero-value exposures in its output,
the model needed to be adjusted to obtain exposures for all grid points. By setting all
probability of casualty (FILLAY) values equal to one—even those associated with an
exposure value ( FILLAX) of zero—BioStrike then reported exposure for all occupied gridpoints in the scenario.15
Separate BioStrike runs were conducted for each combination of tactical scenario,
agent, delivery system, attack intensity, and protection status. In addition, for HD and VX,
separate runs were conducted for both vapor and liquid clouds.
2.
BioStrike Output Format
The BioStrike model output is reported in a flat text file. This output can take a
variety of forms; for AMedP-8, it was set up to report grid point number, grid point x,y
reference, fractional casualty rate, expected casualties, and exposure for all grid points in a
given tactical scenario. Figure III-12 provides an example of the output generated for
AMedP-8, in this case a portion of the results for a moderate-intensity GB artillery/MRLs
attack against forward maneuver units of a heavy brigade on offense.
In the sample output shown, the fractional casualty rate is equal to 1 because all
values for FILLAY are equal to 1. The number of casualties, therefore, is equal to the
number of individuals located at the associated grid point. Note that the titles “Fractional
Casualties” and “Number of Casualties” can be misleading in this output format; since the
status of all occupied grid positions is reported, even personnel with vapor exposures of
0.0000E+0 are listed as ‘Casualties’ (see Section IV.C for a discussion on casualty definition
and calculation methods). Vapor exposures16 are given in mg-min/m3; liquid exposures are
given in mg.
14
For AMedP-8 Chemical, grid point numbers correspond to icon numbers.
These exposure values can be found in Appendices A-G.
16
Note that the “Agent Inhaled” values in the BioStrike output can be interpreted as inhaled agent exposure
values or ambient exposure values, depending on the breathing rate assumed. To achieve ambient exposures, a
breathing rate of 0 L/min was assumed in AMedP-8.
15
28
Line
#
1
2
3
:
:
34
35
36
37
38
39
Occupied Grid Position
#: Xwind, Upwind
1: 11.465, 50.497
2: 11.564, 50.495
3: 8.693, 50.315
Fractional
Casualties
1.000000
1.000000
1.000000
37:
40:
41:
43:
44:
48:
1.000000
1.000000
1.000000
1.000000
1.000000
1.000000
9.376, 45.557
10.792, 42.386
9.312, 45.638
10.740, 42.320
10.438, 42.496
10.165, 46.551
Number of
Agent
Casualties
Inhaled
4.00
0.0000E+0
4.00
0.0000E+0
4.00
0.0000E+0
2.00
5.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.0000E+0
2.1987E+1
0.0000E+0
1.7648E+1
3.2972E+0
0.0000E+0
Figure III-12. Sample BioStrike Output
3.
Post-processing of Protection Available Case Data
To account for skin protection afforded by masking, calculation of exposures in the
protection available cases required an additional step, involving post-processing of the data
output by BioStrike. As discussed earlier, for the protection available case it was assumed
that immediately following the attack, all personnel don masks within one minute and the full
protective ensemble within nine minutes. This means that protected personnel would
experience ocular and respiratory exposures for one minute and skin exposures for nine
minutes. However, the mask will provide protection to those areas of skin it covers, so that
skin exposure would be somewhat mitigated.
The AMedP-8 calculations assume a typical skin surface area per individual of 1m2
and a typical head and neck surface area of 0.07m2. In the first minute after attack, skin
exposures would be 100% of the exposure calculated by BioStrike. In minutes two through
nine, however, skin exposure would be only 93% of that calculated. While it is possible to
evaluate partial effects of protective measures within the BioStrike model, it is not possible
to vary those effects over time. Therefore, consideration of the mitigating effects of masking
on skin exposure had to be done as a post-processing step.
For each protection available case, BioStrike was run twice in its Evaluation mode:
once with exposure truncated at one minute and once with exposure truncated at nine
minutes. In an Excel spreadsheet, the one minute exposure values were subtracted from the
nine minute exposure values to obtain the exposure for minutes two through nine. This value
was then multiplied by 0.93 to determine mitigating effects of masking on skin exposure.
29
Finally, the one minute exposure values were added back in to determine the total skin
exposure, from time of attack through masking and donning of the full protective ensemble.
30
IV.
CASUALTY ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY
Section III described the methods IDA used to estimate vapor and liquid exposure
using VLSTRACK, Gridgen, and BioStrike, and certain inputs from SAIC. IDA then
provided these values to Pacific-Sierra Research (PSR), who calculated casualties and
performance values and generated injury severity estimates for each scenario. Building on
the Consolidated Human Response Nuclear Effects Model (CHRNEM) PSR had designed
for the development of AMedP-8 Nuclear, and teamed with ARES Corporation, PSR applied
a similar methodology to determine the effects of chemical exposure on performance; this
model was called the DNA Improved Casualty Estimation Effort (DICE).17,18
The methodology prescribed by PSR did not account for separate liquid and vapor
exposures; instead, the model utilized an equivalent vapor dose value. The equivalent dose
was effectively the value of a single vapor dose which could be expected to produce the same
injury severity signs and symptoms as those resulting from the combination of vapor and
liquid doses received. The equivalent dose was used to determine the Injury Severity
Category (ISC) for affected personnel, and was used in the DICE algorithm to determine
performance degradation.
For the nerve agents that produce a reaction in one system only – the nervous system
– a single Injury Severity Category was determined based on the equivalent dose. For GB,
the equivalent dose was solely a function of vapor dose and the resultant inhalation and
percutaneous effects; due to the non-persistent nature of the agent, the liquid dose was
considered negligible and neglected. For VX, the equivalent dose was a function of the
liquid dose (percutaneous effects only) and vapor dose (both inhalation and percutaneous
effects) as described in Section IV.A.
The injury severity calculation for HD was slightly more complex since, for HD, the
injury severity category is divided into symptoms as they impact three different systems –
ocular (E), respiratory (R), and skin (S). Ocular and respiratory signs and symptoms were
assumed to be a function of vapor dose only. Skin signs and symptoms, on the contrary,
resulted from both vapor and liquid exposure, or from the equivalent dose.
In addition to being used to determine the Injury Severity Categories for affected
personnel, the equivalent dose for GB and VX and the vapor and equivalent doses for HD
were used to calculate performance as described in Section V.
17
18
McClellan et al., 1998. p. 1.
PSR manipulated the data as required to achieve a format compatible with their models.
31
A.
CALCULATION OF EQUIVALENT DOSE
As summarized above, the equivalent dose was a value computed by PSR for use in
the DICE algorithm. The equivalent dose was calculated using a series of ratios comparing
inhalation and percutaneous effects as a result of both the estimated vapor and liquid
exposures generated in BioStrike. The equivalent dose is described here very generally and
further detailed in Appendix J.
For the nerve agent GB, equivalent dose was based solely on vapor exposure
estimates; liquid exposure estimates were neglected in calculations. The equivalent dose,
therefore, was a function of the inhalation and percutaneous effects of GB vapor. The
percutaneous effects were scaled for use in the equivalent dose by using a ratio of the agent
required to produce severe inhalation effects in 50% of the population (ICt50) to the agent
required to produce severe percutaneous effects due to vapor in 50% of the population
(ED50).
Equivalent DoseGB = ƒ(GB Vaporinhalation, GB Vaporpercutaneous)
For the nerve agent VX, both vapor and liquid estimated exposures contributed to the
calculated equivalent dose. VX vapor contributed to both inhalation and percutaneous doses,
while VX liquid contributed only a percutaneous dose. The equivalent dose for VX was a
function of both VX vapor doses and the VX liquid dose. Ratios similar to that used in the
GB equivalent dose calculation were used to correlate percutaneous effects due to liquid and
vapor exposure to inhalation effects due to vapor.
Equivalent DoseVX = ƒ(VX Vaporinhalation, VX Vaporpercutaneous, VX Liquidpercutaneous)
Equivalent dose calculations for the blister agent HD were similar to those for VX in
that vapor exposure resulted in both inhalation and percutaneous doses, while liquid exposure
resulted in only a percutaneous dose. Ratios as described above were used in the calculation
of HD equivalent dose.
Equivalent DoseHD = ƒ(HD Vaporinhalation, HD Vaporpercutaneous, HD Liquidpercutaneous)
Neither the chemical exposure estimates nor the equivalent doses have been presented
in AMedP-8 Chemical. As part of the documentation effort, these estimates are tabulated in
Appendices A through G; each Appendix pertains to one of seven scenarios, as discussed in
Section III. For each scenario, the corresponding appendix contains a table listing insults by
icon, for all cases (combinations of agent, munition, intensity, and posture).
Copies of the original input files and the exposure data values generated by IDA
during the preparation of AMedP-8 were used to produce the exposure tables included in
32
Appendices A-G. IDA regenerated these tables for inclusion in this documentation effort.
The exposure data as included in Appendices A-G is similar to the data used to produce the
original insult tables for AMedP-8; only minor calculation differences resulted.
B.
CORRELATION OF EXPOSURE TO INJURY SEVERITY CATEGORIES
1.
Generating Injury Severity Category Tables
Nerve agents GB and VX primarily impact a single type of tissue ― nerve tissue; the
injury they produce in the body may therefore be considered systemic. It was assumed that
effects were independent of the mode of exposure – inhalation or percutaneous – and the
agent form – liquid or vapor. Blister agent HD, on the other hand, impacts multiple bodily
tissues differently, including the eyes, the respiratory system, and the skin, producing
different injuries at different times after exposure in each.
In order to estimate the casualties resulting from chemical exposure, Injury Severity
Categories were created. Easily recognized signs and symptoms of illness and their
associated causative chemical exposure values were used to set the range boundaries for the
Injury Severity Categories. Dose ranges resulting in ocular impairment, severe effects, and
lethality in 10%, 50%, and 90% of the population were compared in order to select the Injury
Severity Category ranges. These categories correspond to those used in the DICE model and
are based on dose relationships adopted by the US Army Nuclear and Chemical Agency
(USANCA)19. More information on the generation of these tables is provided in Appendix
K.
For GB, a single table was created indicating the chemical agent’s systemic effects
solely due to vapor exposure.
Dose symptomology tables did not exist for VX. Due to the similar toxicity
mechanism of both nerve agents, GB and VX, the illness signs and symptoms were expected
to be similar. To generate the injury severity category table for VX, an incidence dosage
correlation was performed between GB and VX. Using the USANCA dose relationships at
10%, 50% and 90% severe inhalation effects incidence dosages, VX vapor inhalation
exposures were correlated to GB vapor inhalation exposures. The same incidence dosages
were used to correlate VX liquid percutaneous exposures to VX and GB vapor inhalation
exposures. Using these correlations, the ranges for injury severity category due to VX
exposure are directly relatable to the boundaries for injury severity due to GB exposure. A
more detailed explanation of this methodology is contained in Appendix K.
19
McClellan et al., 1998. p. 4.
33
Due to HD’s different effects on several bodily tissue types, multiple injury severity
categories were established to represent systemic/respiratory, skin, and ocular effects.
The Injury Severity Category tables found below have been extracted pages 3-12
through 3-16 of the AMedP-8 Chemical manual. These tables were derived from tables
shown in “Consequence Analytic Tools for NBC Operations” (McClellan, et. al.) and were
changed by the working group to arrive at the tables shown below. It should be noted that
the values listed under “Inhaled Vapor Exposure Range”, “Vapor Inhalation Exposure
Range”, and “Exposure Range”, as listed in the following tables, represents the calculated
Equivalent Dose.
34
Table IV-1. Injury Severity Categories from unprotected exposure to sarin (GB) vapor20
Injury Severity Category
Injury
Category
Inhaled Vapor
Exposure
Range
Ct (mg-min/m3)
Typical Description
Abbreviation
1
0 - .25
No obvious signs or symptoms of injury.
No effects
2
.25 - 3
Nose drips fluid; airway secretions; variable ocular
effects from miosis; headache; 10% have ocular or
nasal response at 0.3 mg-min/m3; 50% at 0.5 mgmin/m3; and 90% at 0.7 mg-min/m3.
Nose drip, miosis
3
3-6
Eye pain with frontal headache; blurred and dim
vision; small pupils; some tightness in chest with
increased airway secretions and occasional cough;
most signs stop within hours but eyes signs may
last up to one week.*
Eye pain, headache
4
6 - 15
Severe headache; eye pain with sensitivity to light
and blurred vision, maximal effects in all eyes
exposed directly to GB vapor; closing airways with
wheezing sounds; nausea/vomiting; weakness;
most signs continue for 2 to 3 days but eye effects
remain for several days.*
Headache, nausea
5
15 - 30
Tight chest form closing airways and excessive
secretions; coughing; vomiting; abdominal cramps;
salivation; severe headache with anxiety and
confusion; many have tremors or collapse, some
convulse; 10% have severe effects at 23 mgmin/m3; some signs may continue for days or
weeks.*
Tight chest, tremors
6
30 - 50
Difficult breathing; weakness; urination; diarrhea;
convulsions may be followed by collapse or
respiratory failure; 50% have severe effects at 35
mg-min/m3; 10% die at 45 mg-min/m3.*
Convulsions, some
deaths
7
50 - 75
Collapse, paralysis or respiratory failure; 90% have
severe effects at 55 mg-min/m3; 50% die at 70 mgmin/m3.*
Respiratory failure,
half die
8
>75
Respiratory failure or unconsciousness; 90% die at
110 mg-min/m3.*
Unconsciousness,
high mortality
* Descriptions may include all signs and symptoms described for lower dosages. The typical description does
not indicate the range of more or less severe responses that reflects normal individual variation.
20
AMedP-8 Chemical. p. 3-15.
35
Table IV-2. Injury Severity Categories from exposure to VX vapor or liquid21
Injury Severity Category
Injury
Liquid
Vapor
Category Deposition
Inhalation
Exposure
Exposure
Range
Range
(mg/m2) Ct(mg-min/m3)
Typical Description
Abbreviation
1
0 – 0.01
0 – 0.05
No obvious signs or symptoms of injury.
No effects
2
0.01 – 0.4
0.05 – 2
Nose drips fluid; airway secretions; variable ocular effects from
miosis; headache; 10% have mild ocular or nasal effects at 0.06
mg-min/m3, 50% at 0.09 mg-min/m3, and 90% at 0.14 mgmin/mg3.
Nose drip,
miosis
3
0.4 – 0.8
2–4
Eye pain with frontal headache; blurred and dim vision; small
pupils; nausea; some tightness in chest with increased airway
secretions and occasional cough; most signs stop within hours
but eye signs may last up to one week*
Eye pain,
headache
4
0.8 – 2
4 – 10
Severe headache; eye pain with sensitivity to light and
Headache,
blurred vision, maximal effects in all eyes exposed directly nausea
to GB vapor; closing airways with wheezing sounds;
nausea/vomiting; weakness; most signs continue for 2 to 3
days but eye effects remain for several days.*
5
2–4
10 – 19
Tight chest form closing airways and excessive secretions; Tight chest,
coughing; vomiting; abdominal cramps; salivation; severe tremors
headache with anxiety and confusion; many have tremors
or collapse, some convulse; 10% have severe effects from
vapor inhalation at 17 mg-min/m3 or from percutaneous
exposure to 15 mg-min/m3 of vapor or 2.8 mg of liquid.*
6
4–8
19 – 29
Difficult breathing; weakness; urination; diarrhea; severe
Convulsions,
tremors or convulsions may be followed by collapse or
some deaths
respiratory failure; 50% have severe effects from vapor at
25 mg-min/m3 or from percutaneous exposure to 20 mgmin/m3 of vapor or 5 mg of liquid; 10% die from vapor
inhalation at 20 mg-min/m3 or from percutaneous exposure
to 90 mg-min/m3 of vapor or 6 mg of liquid.*
7
8 – 12
29 – 40
Collapse, paralysis or respiratory failure; 90% have severe Respiratory
failure, half
effects from vapor inhalation at 37 mg-min/m3 or from
3
percutaneous exposure to 41 mg-min/m of vapor or 9 mg die
of liquid; 50% die from vapor inhalation of 30 mg-min/m3 or
from percutaneous exposure to 150 mg-min/m3 of vapor or
10 mg of liquid.*
8
> 12
> 40
Respiratory failure or unconsciousness; 90% mortality from Unconsciousness, high
vapor inhalation at 45 mg-min/m3 or from percutaneous
3
mortality
exposure to 250 mg-min/m of vapor of 16 mg of liquid.*
* Descriptions may include all signs and symptoms described for lower dosages. The typical description does
not indicate the range of more or less severe responses that reflects normal individual variation.
21
Ibid.. p. 3-16.
36
Table IV-3. Injury Severity Categories of eye effects from exposure to HD vapor22
Injury Severity Category
Injury
Category
Exposure Range
Ct (mg-min/m3)
1
0–5
No obvious signs or symptoms of injury.
No effects
2
5 – 50
Reddened conjunctiva and tears that may blur vision;
10% have mild ocular effects at 6 mg-min/ m3; 50% at
25 mg-min/m3.
Blurred vision
3
50 – 70
Eyes feel gritty and sensitive to light; many tears and
swollen membranes reduce vision; recovery takes 1 to 2
weeks.*
Light Sensitive
4
70 – 100
Eye discomfort; photophobia; non-stop tears flood eyes;
90% have mild ocular effects at 95 mg-min/m3; recovery
takes 2 to 5 weeks.*
Non-stop tears
5
100 – 150
Eyelids are swollen and eyes burn; eyes are too painful
to keep open; damage to cornea; temporary relapses
occur and convalescence may take 2 to 3 months.*
Little vision
6
> 150
Eyelids are swollen shut and burning; eyes are too
painful to open; convalescence from severe conjunctival
and corneal damage may take several months after
exposures to high dosages of HD.*
Can’t see
Description
Abbreviation
* Descriptions may include all signs and symptoms described for lower dosages. The typical description does
not indicate the range of more or less severe responses that reflects normal individual variation.
22
Ibid.. p. 3-12.
37
Table IV-4. Injury Severity Categories of respiratory/systemic effects
from exposure to HD vapor23
Injury Severity Category
Injury
Category
Exposure
Range
Ct (mg-min/m3)
Description
Abbreviation
1
0 – 50
No obvious signs or symptoms of injury.
No effects
2
50 – 70
Nauseated, swallows often.*
Nausea
3
70 – 100
Dry mouth; dry cough; sneezing; runny nose; headache;
nausea; may vomit once or twice; 10% have severe effects
at 80 mg-min/m3; recovery may take 2 weeks.*
Cough, headache
4
100 – 150
Sore throat; continuous cough; hoarseness; vomits; chest
feels tight; headache; fever; 50% have severe effects at 135
mg-min/m3.*
Coughing and
vomiting
5
150 – 250
Hurts to breath; hacking cough; cannot speak; headache;
dry vomiting; fatigued from vomiting and abdominal pain;
90% have severe effects at 230 mg-min/m3;
bronchopneumonia may occur after 48 hours and recovery
may take 1 to 2 months.*
Voice loss, dry
vomiting
6
250 – 1200
Severe chest pain; wheezing and shortness of breath;
coughs up red colored mucous; 10% die at 600 mg-min/m3
and 50% mortality at 1000 mg-min/m3; deaths within a few
days occur after choking with pulmonary edema, obstruction
or pneumonia.*
Choking, ± 50% die
7
>1200
Very severe effects; 90% mortality at 1700 mg-min/m3;
pieces of dead tissue obstruct airways and add early deaths
to those from edema or infection.*
Obstruction, high
mortality
* Descriptions may include all signs and symptoms described for lower dosages. The typical description does
not indicate the range of more or less severe responses that reflects normal individual variation.
23
Ibid.. p. 3-13.
38
Table IV-5. Injury Severity Categories of wet skin effects from exposure to HD vapor or liquid 24
Injury Severity Category
Injury
Category
Vapor
Exposure
Range
Ct (mg-min/m3)
1
0 – 25
2
Description
Abbreviation
No obvious signs or symptoms of injury.
No effects
25 – 100
Skin sensitive to touch in tender areas (crotch, armpits,
inside of elbow and knee); threshold effects in 10% at
30 mg-min/m3, in 50% at 50 mg-min/m3, and in 90% at
80 mg-min/m3.*
Sensitive
3
100 – 250
Skin sore or itching and burning in tender areas; painful
when moving; red body skin; tiny blisters on hands and
neck.*
Sore, red
4
250 – 500
Skin raw and painful or itching in tender areas; red,
swollen body skin; large blisters on neck, fingers, and
backs of hands; new blisters may appear each day for a
week or more.*
Blisters,
swelling
5
500 – 750
Skin peels off leaving open raw areas and painful ulcers
in tender areas; may vomit; raw areas may take several
weeks to heal.*
Raw ulcers
6
750 – 1500
Headache; nausea; fever or hypothermia; 10% have
severe body skin effects at 1200 mg-min/m3 or at 350 mg
liquid exposure over whole body; skin healing may take
several weeks or months.*,**
Systemic
effects
7
1500 – 4000
50% have red, raw body skin at 2000 mg-min/m3 or 1400
mg liquid exposure over whole body; 90% have severe
body skin effects at 3300 mg-min/m3 or 5500 mg liquid
exposure over whole body. *,**
Raw skin on
body
8
4000 – 12,000
10% die at 6500 mg-min/m3 or 2700 mg liquid exposure
over whole body; 50% die at 10,000 mg-min/m3 or
7000 mg liquid exposure of whole body. *,**
Intoxication,
± 50% die
9
>12,000
90% die at 15,000 mg-min/m3 or 18,000 mg liquid
exposure over whole body. *,**
Shock, high
mortality
* Descriptions may include all signs and symptoms described for lower dosages. The typical description does
not indicate the range of more or less severe responses that reflects normal individual variation.
**
2.
Determining Injury Severity Category
As stated above, in the case of GB, only vapor dose was considered; little liquid
exposure or percutaneous dose was expected due to the nature of the agent. In order to
determine the Injury Severity Category as a result of exposure to GB, the equivalent dose (as
24
Ibid.. p. 3-14.
39
a composite of inhalation and percutaneous doses resulting from vapor exposure) is entered
into the table. The expected symptoms and ISC can then be determined.
For VX, similarly, the equivalent dose is used to determine ISCs. It is important to
note that Table IV-2 data were not used in determining VX ISCs during the generation of
AMED P-8 Chemical. Table IV-2 did not exist when PSR began building their DICE
methodology; the derivation of this table is shown in Appendix K. To calculate the ISCs for
VX, using a correlation ratio comparing the amount of GB vapor required to produce severe
inhalation effects in 50% of the population to the amount of VX required to produce severe
effects (both inhalation and percutaneous) in 50% of the population, VX liquid and vapor
doses were converted to an equivalent GB dose and then entered into Table IV-1 (ISCs from
exposure to GB vapor or liquid) in order to determine the ISC.
Table IV-6. VX Injury Severity Category Calculation Comparison
Percutaneous
Equivalent Exposure
(mg-min/m3)
Total Equivalent
Exposure (mg-min/m3)
Injury Severity
Category
Total Equivalent
Exposure (mg-min/m3)
Percutaneous
Equivalent Exposure
(mg-min/m3)
Inhalation Equivalent
Exposure (mg-min/m3)
Liquid Exposure (mg)
24 rounds at aimpoint (17.65, 20.15)
7.11E+01 5.67E+00 1.83E+02 1.89E+02
8.67E+01 6.38E+00 2.23E+02 2.30E+02
1.27E+00 1.54E+00 4.72E+00 6.26E+00
1.15E+00 1.44E+00 4.32E+00 5.76E+00
1.08E+00 2.26E-01 2.93E+00 3.15E+00
7.45E+00 2.30E+00 2.09E+01 2.32E+01
5.62E+00 1.72E+00 1.58E+01 1.75E+01
Inhalation Equivalent
Exposure (mg-min/m3)
5.67E+00
6.38E+00
1.54E+00
1.44E+00
2.26E-01
2.30E+00
1.72E+00
Using GB Tables
Injury Severity
Category
Case 1: Unprotected
38
2
40
2
778
1
780
3
993
3
994
8
996
7
Vapor Exposure (mgmin/m3)
Number of Persons
Grid Position (Icon #)
VX 250kg Bomb
Heavy Attack
Height of Release: 70m
Using VX Tables
8
8
4
4
3
6
5
7.94E+00
8.93E+00
2.16E+00
2.02E+00
3.16E-01
3.22E+00
2.41E+00
5.06E+02
6.16E+02
1.10E+01
1.01E+01
7.88E+00
5.54E+01
4.17E+01
5.14E+02
6.25E+02
1.32E+01
1.21E+01
8.19E+00
5.86E+01
4.42E+01
8
8
4
4
4
7
6
Due to VX’s steeper probit slope, using the GB ISC tables vice the VX ISC tables, results in
assignment of higher ISCs than would have been assigned had the VX tables been used. At
the extremes and at the midpoint, the table results are similar. Had Table IV-2 been used,
vice Table IV-1, a similar number of casualties would have resulted, however the ISCs of the
casualties would have been lower for many of the casualties.
For HD, the process is slightly more complex. The ISC for HD is a composite of the
ocular (E – eye), respiratory (R), and skin (S) categories, which is tabulated for exposures in
AMedP-8 Chemical aand written as 1-2-3, for example, where the ocular ISC is 1, the
respiratory ISC is 2, and the skin ISC is 3. Equivalent dose is used to determine the skin ISC.
Because ocular and respiratory effects result only from vapor exposure, only the vapor
exposure is used to determine the E and R ISCs.
40
It is important to note that the documentation process revealed the following errata:
although Injury Severity Category six is the highest category given for eye effects due to HD
exposure, category five is the highest category assigned in the tables given in Appendices 410 of AMedP-8 Chemical. Calculations to produce Appendices A-F for this documentation
effort indicate that approximately fifty attacks resulted in an ISC six; in AMedP-8 Chemical,
these attacks are included, however, they are listed with an ISC of five vice ISC six. IDA
found this error; we are assuming that, because performance is based on exposures vice ISC,
this error will not impact the performance calculations.
Dose (mg) can be determined using the above tables. For inhalation effects, as shown
in Tables IV-1, IV-2, and IV-4, the assumed breathing rate of 15 l/min (.015 m3/min) was
used. Percutaneous doses, based on the assumption of 1 m2 exposed skin/person, were
converted to equivalent vapor doses and added to the inhaled vapor doses to calculate
effective dose. The resulting effective dose is equivalent to the inhaled vapor exposure
(labeled “Inhaled Vapor Exposure Range”) given in the Injury Severity tables (Tables IV-1
through IV-5).
41
V. CALCULATION OF POST-ATTACK PERFORMANCE CAPABILITY
In addition to using the calculated exposures for determining ISC, as described in
Section IV, exposures were input into the DICE model to determine performance capability
of personnel following exposure to chemical agent. The vapor and liquid doses calculated by
BioStrike were used as the basis for these performance calculations. Vapor, liquid, and
effective doses were calculated (as described above); in addition, VX doses were converted
to equivalent GB doses for calculation.
Sign/symptom severity profiles were generated for each agent as a function of
equivalent dose, time, and physiological system affected. A scale of one to five (one is the
best or least injurious, five is the worst) delineates the sign/symptom severity categories. For
each dose range, the severity category is plotted against time on a logarithmic scale. A table
is produced for each system affected. There are six systems affected by nerve agents GB and
VX―upper gastrointestinal, lower gastrointestinal, muscular, ocular, respiratory, and
mental―and four impacted by HD―skin, system, respiratory, and ocular.
A.
DETERMINING SIGN/SYMPTOM SEVERITY PROFILES
In order to determine the sign/symptom severity profiles, crewmembers loading and
firing an M119A1 light Howitzer were selected as representative of a combat soldier. Their
performance can be measured as a function of time, accuracy, or a combination of both. For
the DNA/IDP model, it was determined that only subject matter experts (SMEs) could
provide accurate estimates of the impact of injury on time to perform tasks.
The signs and symptoms associated with each chemical agent and exposure range
were explained as textual descriptions. SMEs―enlisted personnel with experience operating
a Howitzer and performing other general tasks―were given questionnaires with the
associated signs/symptoms descriptions and asked to quantify how long particular tasks
would take given the signs/symptoms prescribed. These values were then quantified to
establish performance characterizations, using the Defense Nuclear Agency/Intermediate
Dose Program (DNA/IDP) methodology. 25 Given the chemical insults, the DICE algorithm
estimates performance ― the capability of individuals performing general combat tasks at
various times after exposure.
It is important to note that injury severity categories and sign/symptom severity
categories are not the same; ISCs prescribe the manifest symptoms resulting in the primary
25
Anno, G. G., et al., Predicted Performance on Infantry and Artillery Personnel Following Acute Radiation or
Chemical Agent Exposure, Defense Nuclear Agency, Washington DC, DNA-TR-93-174, November 1994.
42
system(s) affected based on particular dose ranges, whereas sign/symptom severity
categories describe the changing symptoms in several different physiological systems over
time. Table V.1 provides one example: given HD vapor and liquid exposure from a light
artillery attack, the overall ISC and the sign/symptom severity categories at three hours and
thirty days, with calculated performance, are shown.
Table V-1. HD Exposure, ISC, and Performance Calculations
B.
3.89E+01
1.90E+02
7.92E+02
5.84E+01
6.53E+01
3.47E+02
1.45E+03
1.11E+02
Injury
Severity
Category
Equivalent
Exposure
(mg-min/m3)
Case 1: Unprotected
361
8
9.72E+00
363
8
7.60E+01
365
8
3.16E+02
382
8
2.80E+01
Liquid
Exposure
(mg)
Vapor
Exposure
(mg-min/m3)
Number of
Persons
Grid Position
(Icon #)
Mustard (HD) 152mm Artillery
Light Attack
Height of Release: 15m
3 Hours -30 Days -Sign/symptom Severity Categories Sign/symptom Severity Categories
E
R
S
Skin Resp Sys
Oc
Perf
Skin Resp Sys
Oc
Perf
18 rounds at aimpoint (10.55, 43.65)
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
4
3
4
2
1
1
2
0.6420
1
1
1
1
1
6
6
6
5
3
1
3
0.0021
1
2
3
1 0.7055
2
1
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
PHYSICAL EFFECTIVENESS AS A FUNCTION OF PERFORMANCE
The performance measure helps determine the post-exposure physical effectiveness
of an individual after exposure. Physical effectiveness is decremented as in the combined
injury model26 using a measure, which accounts for the increased time required to perform a
task correctly. Thus, an individual who is described as 50% capable requires twice as much
time to perform a task as required by someone who is 100% capable. Estimates of residual
performance (performance capability of a typical soldier who was initially healthy) were
based on the earlier mentioned questionnaire-based study, which considered the typical
symptoms and severity that would be caused by exposure to a chemical agent. Table IV-6
defines the categories used in the tables described in Sections 3.0-3.3 of the AMedP-8
Chemical manual, and listed below. Personnel categories such as “fatalities,” “casualties,”
and “capable” found in the tables are based on individual physical effectiveness as
determined by the DICE model.
The use of 25% capable as the defining level of a casualty does not restrict an
individual from entering the medical system at any other level of performance; however, the
expectation is that the exposure levels reducing performance to 25% would result in
symptoms that would require medical treatment. Further, the concepts of physical
effectiveness and percentage capabilities include those who are apparently fit for duty but
have been exposed to chemical agent. Casualty flags are assigned for any individual whose
26
McClellan et al., 1998. p. 17.
43
performance drops to 25% or below at any time during the evaluation period. Performance
for GB and VX was calculated at hours one and twelve and for the first seven days after
exposure; performance for HD was calculated three hours after exposure, every day for the
first week after exposure, and at days fifteen and thirty. In the PSR documentation, casualty
flags for the HD injury categories were included27. IDA verified these values as the basis of
our own performance calculations. It appears that, for a skin exposure of 500 mg-min/m3, an
average of the sign/symptom severity – 2 – for the 250-500 mg-min/m3 range and the sign
symptom severity – 5 – for the 500-1000 mg-min/m3 was used; only by using a skin
sign/symptom severity of 3.5 at 500 mg-min/m3 was IDA able to reproduce the performance
values included on the casualty flag tables.
An individual whose performance has dropped to 25% capable or lower becomes a
casualty. Over the course of the evaluation period – 3 hours to 30 days for HD and 1 hour to
7 days for GB and VX, the individual can remain a casualty, can become a fatality, or can
eventually return to duty (RTD). The individual becomes a fatality if the calculated
performance capability drops below the fatality performance threshold 0.01% for GB and
VX or below 0.0023% for HD as shown in Table V.2.
Table V-2. Performance Capability Categories.
Category
Definition
Fatality
<0.01% capable (GB, VX)
<0.0023% capable (HD)
Casualty
>0% but <=25% capable (in medical system until recovery is >=75%)
Capable
>25% capable
Return-to-duty (RTD)
A casualty who recovers to >=75% capable
Sick Again
A return to duty (RTD) whose capability has dropped to <= 25%
The PSR documentation indicates that the basis for selecting 0.0023% for HD was that it was
higher than the lowest sign/symptom severity combination which resulted in a performance
of 0.0022%28. IDA’s recalculation of performance for HD showed that the lowest
demonstrated sign/symptom severity combination – 5-4-5-5 (skin-respiratory-systemicocular) – results in performance of .0013%; the next lowest combination was – 5-4-4-5 –
with performance of 0.0024%. We are assuming that the fatality threshold was selected to be
27
28
Ibid. p. 65 – 69.
Ibid. p. 36.
44
right below the second lowest sign/symptom severity category vice just above the minimum
sign/symptom severity category as documented by PSR.
If the individual’s calculated performance improves, the individual can eventually
become an RTD once calculated performance increases greater than or equal to 75% capable.
RTDs provide an estimate for expected recoveries, however, it is important to know that this
value is only an estimate and should be used only as a worst-case basis for manning
estimation. Performance calculations are based solely on illness progression as a result of
chemical exposure; there is no accounting for medical treatment as part of the calculations in
AMedP-8. The purpose of AMedP-8 was to estimate casualties for planning purposes. The
individual, therefore, who becomes an RTD does so as the signs and symptoms of injury run
their natural course; with treatment, this patient and others may potentially return to duty
sooner.
It should be noted29 that the performance criteria established by the DICE algorithms
tend to overestimate fatalities as a result of vapor exposure and underestimate fatalities for
liquid exposure. The impact of these inaccuracies, however, is not as obvious, because the
targeting was optimized to maximize production of non-lethal casualties vice production of
fatalities.
C.
GENERATION OF PERFORMANCE TABLES
In AMedP-8, performance capability data are captured in three different types of
tables for each scenario and each agent:



Status of Unit Personnel Over Time
Casualties Occurring by Time Period
Personnel by Injury Category
Personnel status after a chemical detonation is presented in the tables in Sections 4-10
of the AMedP-8 Chemical manual.
There are two important notes about the generation of the above tables for HD. First,
in order to avoid calculating and listing the effects of extremely low level exposures, soldiers
99.5% capable and above are considered 100% capable.30
Second, determining the time-dependent injury by casualty type, the associated
category (eye, respiratory, skin) is assumed to have a resulting injury if the sign/symptom
29
30
Ibid. p. 37.
Ibid. p. 54.
45
category31 level is greater than or equal to two (at the time of the evaluation), not if the injury
severity category is greater than or equal to two, as might be assumed. So, an eye injury
would be present if the sign/symptom severity ocular was greater than or equal to two.
Similarly, a skin injury would be present with a sign/symptom severity skin greater than or
equal to two. For respiratory, an injury is present when either the sign/symptom severity
respiratory or systemic is greater than or equal to two.
IDA recalculated the performance tables for HD exposure associated with the Heavy
Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Movement to Contact and Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support,
Movement to Contact (Appendices 4 and 5 in AMedP-8 Chemical). We’ve identified minor
discrepancies in the data between what was published in AMedP-8 and what IDA
recalculated. Although the number of total casualties are similar in most cases, the types of
casualties, times at which they occur, and the resultant number of fatalities differ.
IDA has not yet recalculated the GB or VX performance values. We utilized the
methodology and values described above and in Annex L, however, we do not, as yet, have
the course of sign/symptom severities over time and, without that, cannot yet verify the GB
and VX tables. This requires additional resolution and is being worked on.
31
See Tables L.2 and L.3; these tables demonstrate the sign/symptom severity categories over time for each
exposure range.
46
VI.
REMAINING METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS
During the course of the documentation efforts, IDA identified several
inconsistencies and/or areas of inadequate documentation with the study methods. Several of
these have already been identified above; additional questions are included below. These
questions are being addressed as additional information is provided.
A.
EXPOSURE RANGE SELECTION
A question was raised regarding the rationale used to select the DICE vapor exposure
ranges which were used as the basis for the sign/symptom severity graph. In the DSWA
technical report, page 39, the seven initial vapor exposure ranges are: 10-50, 50-70, 70-100,
100-150, 150-250, 250-500, and 500-1000 (all in mg-min/m3). These ranges, however, do
not seem consistent with the injury severity category ranges. For example, for a skin
exposure below 25 mg-min/m3, there is no injury, vice for exposures between 25 mg-min/m3
and 100 mg-min/m3, skin is sensitive and tender. Therefore, we were concerned that there is
a risk that dividing the range at 50 mg-min/m3 vice 25 mg-min/m3 will miss capturing some
symptomatic individuals.
B.
TABLE GENERATION
During our attempt to replicate some of the tables found in AMedP-8 Volume III
(Chemical), the following questions arose.
The documentation defines casualties and fatalities; however, it does not explain if
all, some or no fatalities are assumed to be casualties prior to becoming fatalities. We know
from the documentation that the definition of a casualty is less than or equal to 25%
performance and the definition of a fatality is less than or equal to 0.0023%. We were unable
to determine if the definition of casualty is lower bounded by the definition of fatality. Our
calculations using these values and the same starting exposures do not yield the same number
of fatalities or casualties as the tables included in the appendices of AMedP-8 Chemical. In
addition, an individual who becomes a fatality, under normal circumstances, can be assumed
to have some type of medical treatment prior to become a fatality. Therefore, for estimation
and planning purposes it would seem that casualties should include fatalities during that time
period. Those numbers do not currently seem to be included as casualties.
In addition, with regards to definitions, we were unsure of the connection, if any,
between performance bands and RTD. When an individual was a casualty (below 25%
performance) and improved to >25% performance but not above 75% (return-to-duty
47
criterion), it was unclear if he/she were counted in the capable by performance band and the
casualty band, either or neither.
In the Status of Unit Personnel over Time tables, it was unclear if the performance
band, casualty and fatality values are cumulative. For example, in Table 7-56 of AMedP-8
Chemical, Status of Unit Personnel by Time Period, Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver,
Defense, Bombs, Light Attack, at hour 3, 18 people have ERS casualties, with an additional
28 people below 100%. At the end of Day 1, 15 people have ERS casualties and 10 have ES
casualties, 14 become fatalities and 13 additional are below 100%. We were unsure if 15
ERS casualties were new casualties or if they were 15 people who remained casualties from
the previous day, with an additional three personnel having become fatalities.
In the Casualties Occurring by Time Period tables, there was a question about how
casualties and fatalities were determined. We did not know how to determine if fatalities
were casualties from a previous day or if they became casualties and fatalities within a single
time period. For example, in Table 7-62, Casualties Occurring by Time Period, Heavy
Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Defense, MRLS/Artillery, Light Attack, after 3 hours, 30
people are ERS casualties. After one day, 15 people are fatalities and there are no casualties.
This would seem to imply that 15 of the 30 became fatalities and 15 remain casualties. After
30 days, 21 people return to duty. This should not be possible, because if 15 became
fatalities, then there should be only 15 available for return-to-duty. Otherwise, the
assumption must be made that the fatalities are in addition to the 30 casualties, or that only
some undefined portion of those 30 became fatalities. This may not be a good assumption
because it leads to the indication that fatalities receive no medical treatment before becoming
fatalities.
In addition, a second type of discrepancy appears on several tables, including Table
7-66, Casualties Occurring by Time Period, Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Defense,
Bombs, Light Attack. At hour 3, there are 18 casualties. At day one, there are 10 ES
casualties and 14 fatalities, however, only 7 casualties listed in the total casualties section.
Similarly in Table 7-66, Casualties Occurring by Time Period, Heavy Brigade, Forward
Maneuver, Defense, Bombs, Moderate Attack. After 3 hours, 60 people are ERS casualties.
After one day, 10 people are noted as ES casualties and 43 are listed as fatalities, however, in
the total casualties section for day one, there are no total casualties. The way that we
understand the tables, the total number of casualties by injury type should equal the number
of casualties in the total injury section, however, we were unable to determine why this was
not the case.
48
VII.
AMedP-8 CHEMICAL DOCUMENT APPEARANCE
The AMedP-8 Chemical manual is organized into eleven sections:











Section 1.
Section 2.
Section 3.
Section 4.
Section 5.
Section 6.
Section 7.
Section 8.
Section 9.
Section 10.
Section 11.
Introduction
Methodology
Casualty Tables- Explanation and How to Use Them
Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Movement to Contact
Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area, Movement to Contact
Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Offense
Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Defense
Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area, Offense and Defense
Support Brigade
Light Infantry Brigade - Defense
How To Find Casualty Estimates For Sample Problems
Sections 1-3 provide the background and administrative information necessary to use
AMedP-8. Section 11 provides a step-by-step set of instructions on how to use the
document. Sections 4-10 are each specific to one of the seven tactical scenarios and are
essentially identical in construction, including the tables that provide the data necessary for
casualty estimation. Each section is divided into three subsections: one each for the chemical
agents GB, VX, and HD. Within each subsection, the casualty estimation information is
provided in two forms: casualties as a function of time, and casualties by type and intensity
of injury.
In each subsection, the first four tables are summary tables. They present estimates
for each of the weapon/delivery system combinations for each of three attack intensities and
for both protection available and protection unavailable postures. These four tables provide
casualty estimates at 1 and 12 hours and 1 and 7 days after agent release. They also provide
the information on the Status of Unit Personnel for the three delivery systems, three attack
intensities, and two postures for the major time periods included in this manual. For
example, Table n-1 (where n is the section number [4-10] in AMedP-8) presents the status of
unit personnel at one hour after low, moderate, and high intensity GB attacks using Multiple
Rocket Launch Systems (MRLS)/artillery, bombs, or Tactical Ballistic Missiles (TBMs) for
both protective postures. The first four tables in each subsection allow the planner to rapidly
compare medical workloads for units with or without protection available, across attack
intensities. These estimates provide the total number of personnel in each category at the
specified time.
49
Two sets of nine tables follow the initial Summary Tables in each subsection. The
first set of nine provides the “Status of Unit Personnel Over Time” for the nine combinations
of agent delivery system and attack intensity. The tables entitled “Status of Unit Personnel
Over Time” are designed to provide an overview of the unit status at a specified time. Time
is particularly important because a person’s effectiveness will change over time due to the
progress of different injuries. For GB and VX, the total number of personnel in the unit who
are casualties, fatalities, capable (cumulative and divided by performance bands), and
Returned to Duty (RTD) are enumerated for the first hour, hour 12, and daily from day one to
day seven. For HD, unit personnel in these categories are enumerated for hour 3, daily from
day one to seven, day 15, and day 30. Estimates for light MRLS/artillery attacks are
presented for personnel with protection unavailable and protection available, followed by
tables of casualty estimates for moderate and heavy attacks. Attacks with bombs and TBMs
follow similarly. The tables entitled “Casualties Occurring Over Time” provide estimates of
the additions to each category—Casualties, Fatalities, RTD—as they occur for each time
period. The last set of tables in each subsection is a pair of tables, entitled “Personnel by
Insult Category” for protection unavailable and protection available postures, respectively.
These tables provide an alternative method for categorizing personnel after a chemical agent
exposure, i.e., by injury and/or by exposure level. This type of table provides estimates of
personnel exposed to a range of insult levels and the resultant injuries. The tables are keyed
to injury levels. An injury level is presented for each of the systemic effects of GB and VX,
and for eye, skin, and respiratory/systemic effect of HD.
More detailed information on the content and organization of AMedP-8 is available in
Section 3 of the STANAG.
50
VIII. SUMMARY OF CASUALTIES BY SCENARIO
AMedP-8 Chemical provides estimates of the numbers, types, and times of casualties
resulting from the release of one of three different types of chemical agents (GB, VX or HD)
by three different weapon delivery systems (MRLS/artillery, bombs, or TBMs) at three
different attack intensities (light, moderate, or heavy) within seven different tactical targets.
This analysis provides an overview of how those casualty estimates were derived and the
limitations of the scenarios presented in AMedP-8. Tables VIII-1 through VIII-3, below,
summarize the results of this analysis.
51
Sarin (GB)
Casualties, TBMs
(Heavy)
Sarin (GB)
Casualties, TBMs
(Moderate)
Sarin (GB)
Casualties, TBMs
(Light)
Sarin (GB)
Casualties, Bombs
(Heavy)
Sarin (GB)
Casualties, Bombs
(Moderate)
Sarin (GB)
Casualties, Bombs
(Light)
Sarin (GB)
Casualties,
Artillery/MRLS
(Heavy)
Sarin (GB)
Casualties,
Artillery/MRLS
(Moderate)
Sarin (GB)
Casualties,
Artillery/MRLS
(Light)
SubOperational Operational Area
Area
Table VIII-1. Summary of Casualty Scenarios, GB
Heavy Brigade,
Heavy Brigade,
Heavy Brigade,
Heavy Brigade, Brigade Heavy Brigade, Brigade
Support Brigade
Light Infantry Brigade
Manuever Batallions,
Manuever Batallions,
Manuever Batallions,
Support Area,
Support Area, Offense
Movement to Contact
Offense
Defense
Movement to Contact
or Defense
40
16
21
40
N/A
10
6
Length (Km)
20
24
45
20
N/A
7
6
Breadth (Km)
4,042
4,042
4,042
4,042
4,042
2,314
3,454
Population
Maneuver Batallion
Maneuver Batallion
Maneuver Batallion
Support Batallion
Support Batallion
N/A
N/A
Unit
10
10
15
10
6
Length (Km)
20
8
15
20
5
Breadth (Km)
1,047
1,047
1,047
1,013
1,013
Population
Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection
Unavailable Available Unavailable Available Unavailable Available Unavailable Available Unavailable Available Unavailable Available Unavailable Available
Immediate
0
0
0
3
10
9
0
0
2
1
55
5
52
0
Fatalities
Casualty,
27
24
36
24
55
36
71
44
92
62
75
30
148
50
Surviving
Casualty,
Subsequent
0
0
0
0
3
3
0
5
5
0
0
0
8
0
Fatality
Immediate
0
70
4
23
4
27
30
48
45
19
40
90
338
140
Fatalities
Casualty,
85
13
123
49
105
44
171
38
232
86
300
100
588
144
Surviving
Casualty,
Subsequent
0
2
0
3
0
0
0
14
2
4
15
15
56
20
Fatality
Immediate
42
13
74
4
0
53
96
23
46
80
63
155
200
276
Fatalities
Casualty,
194
59
148
52
135
60
247
123
257
123
406
80
941
229
Surviving
Casualty,
Subsequent
6
0
0
3
4
3
4
7
19
1
25
0
40
27
Fatality
Immediate
0
0
4
0
0
0
0
0
8
0
0
0
96
0
Fatalities
Casualty,
79
21
101
11
93
18
154
33
180
40
270
10
486
10
Surviving
Casualty,
Subsequent
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
10
0
Fatality
Immediate
0
18
44
0
0
11
74
25
4
57
0
35
50
17
Fatalities
Casualty,
156
69
142
44
126
32
193
123
321
102
367
60
1030
81
Surviving
Casualty,
Subsequent
0
0
0
0
0
4
0
0
8
1
0
10
0
0
Fatality
Immediate
82
18
31
0
0
34
78
4
45
17
85
60
50
86
Fatalities
Casualty,
206
69
193
53
128
30
207
70
417
62
390
55
1147
138
Surviving
Casualty,
Subsequent
10
0
12
0
0
0
0
0
4
5
15
5
10
30
Fatality
Immediate
0
0
11
10
0
0
2
0
2
1
20
0
0
10
Fatalities
Casualty,
104
16
137
13
94
18
149
40
201
25
290
10
610
30
Surviving
Casualty,
Subsequent
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Fatality
Immediate
0
0
4
0
0
4
1
0
13
0
20
0
10
0
Fatalities
Casualty,
314
16
279
5
131
4
326
9
519
6
597
10
1383
10
Surviving
Casualty,
Subsequent
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Fatality
Immediate
0
0
0
0
4
0
23
17
17
21
60
0
30
10
Fatalities
Casualty,
359
27
311
27
150
40
357
84
559
127
664
35
1457
60
Surviving
Casualty,
Subsequent
0
0
0
0
8
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Fatality
52
VX Casualties,
TBMs (Heavy)
VX Casualties,
TBMs (Moderate)
VX Casualties,
TBMs (Light)
VX Casualties,
Bombs (Heavy)
VX Casualties,
Bombs (Moderate)
VX Casualties,
Bombs (Light)
VX Casualties,
Artillery/MRLS
(Heavy)
VX Casualties,
Artillery/MRLS
(Moderate)
VX Casualties,
Artillery/MRLS
(Light)
SubOperational Operational Area
Area
Table VIII-2. Summary of Casualty Scenarios, VX
Heavy Brigade,
Heavy Brigade,
Heavy Brigade,
Heavy Brigade, Brigade Heavy Brigade, Brigade
Support Brigade
Light Infantry Brigade
Manuever Batallions,
Manuever Batallions,
Manuever Batallions,
Support Area,
Support Area, Offense
Movement to Contact
Offense
Defense
Movement to Contact
or Defense
40
16
21
40
N/A
10
6
Length (Km)
20
24
45
20
N/A
7
6
Breadth (Km)
4,042
4,042
4,042
4,042
4,042
2,314
3,454
Population
Maneuver Batallion
Maneuver Batallion
Maneuver Batallion
Support Batallion
Support Batallion
N/A
N/A
Unit
10
10
15
10
6
Length (Km)
20
8
15
20
5
Breadth (Km)
1,047
1,047
1,047
1,013
1,013
Population
Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection
Unavailable Available Unavailable Available Unavailable Available Unavailable Available Unavailable Available Unavailable Available Unavailable Available
Immediate
0
0
5
5
3
3
0
0
6
6
95
95
96
96
Fatalities
Casualty,
41
41
67
54
57
56
109
108
149
152
140
140
212
212
Surviving
Casualty,
Subsequent
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
3
0
10
0
0
0
Fatality
Immediate
0
0
14
14
13
13
0
0
17
17
50
110
422
422
Fatalities
Casualty,
77
35
113
107
93
91
171
171
213
192
185
145
370
300
Surviving
Casualty,
Subsequent
0
0
0
6
0
2
0
0
1
1
15
10
10
0
Fatality
Immediate
0
0
13
18
11
25
0
12
205
19
55
85
620
686
Fatalities
Casualty,
120
117
124
98
118
82
180
163
153
179
285
130
617
308
Surviving
Casualty,
Subsequent
0
0
2
5
1
0
0
9
7
0
20
5
30
50
Fatality
Immediate
0
0
19
19
0
0
8
8
44
44
45
45
88
70
Fatalities
Casualty,
75
70
105
102
70
69
131
131
150
150
240
230
494
464
Surviving
Casualty,
Subsequent
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
18
Fatality
Immediate
92
92
52
52
4
4
45
45
66
62
150
150
130
120
Fatalities
Casualty,
116
72
143
105
125
121
177
177
279
264
325
310
860
832
Surviving
Casualty,
Subsequent
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
10
Fatality
Immediate
121
98
53
53
0
0
103
103
175
165
145
140
120
80
Fatalities
Casualty,
145
141
192
142
127
121
187
190
259
263
367
360
1078
1021
Surviving
Casualty,
Subsequent
10
31
0
0
4
4
3
0
4
10
0
5
30
50
Fatality
Immediate
25
8
123
7
0
11
165
44
104
20
184
95
188
126
Fatalities
Casualty,
419
49
147
23
224
39
104
42
108
12
212
55
383
110
Surviving
Casualty,
Subsequent
25
0
9
0
0
0
0
0
2
6
5
5
0
0
Fatality
Immediate
107
0
190
20
126
5
257
39
213
15
644
20
985
0
Fatalities
Casualty,
691
26
113
18
223
23
121
28
105
42
247
25
382
30
Surviving
Casualty,
Subsequent
4
0
5
0
3
6
6
0
4
0
25
0
7
0
Fatality
Immediate
107
4
175
26
193
33
242
1
220
60
564
85
1191
186
Fatalities
Casualty,
584
56
107
31
178
39
111
76
164
89
237
85
339
140
Surviving
Casualty,
Subsequent
0
4
13
0
0
15
0
15
6
35
15
34
20
Fatality
53
Distilled Mustard
(HD) Casualties,
TBMs (Heavy)
Distilled Mustard
(HD) Casualties,
TBMs (Moderate)
Distilled Mustard
(HD) Casualties,
TBMs (Light)
Distilled Mustard
(HD) Casualties,
Bombs (Heavy)
Distilled Mustard
(HD) Casualties,
Bombs (Moderate)
Distilled Mustard
(HD) Casualties,
Bombs (Light)
Distilled Mustard
(HD) Casualties,
Artillery/MRLS
(Heavy)
Distilled Mustard
(HD) Casualties,
Artillery/MRLS
(Moderate)
Distilled Mustard
(HD) Casualties,
Artillery/MRLS
(Light)
SubOperational Operational Area
Area
Table VIII-3. Summary of Casualty Scenarios, HD
Heavy Brigade,
Heavy Brigade,
Heavy Brigade,
Heavy Brigade, Brigade Heavy Brigade, Brigade
Support Brigade
Light Infantry Brigade
Manuever Batallions,
Manuever Batallions,
Manuever Batallions,
Support Area,
Support Area, Offense
Movement to Contact
Offense
Defense
Movement to Contact
or Defense
40
16
21
40
N/A
10
6
Length (Km)
20
24
45
20
N/A
7
6
Breadth (Km)
4,042
4,042
4,042
4,042
4,042
2,314
3,454
Population
Maneuver Batallion
Maneuver Batallion
Maneuver Batallion
Support Batallion
Support Batallion
N/A
N/A
Unit
10
10
15
10
6
Length (Km)
20
8
15
20
5
Breadth (Km)
1,047
1,047
1,047
1,013
1,013
Population
Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection Protection
Unavailable Available Unavailable Available Unavailable Available Unavailable Available Unavailable Available Unavailable Available Unavailable Available
Immediate
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Fatalities
Casualty,
16
9
24
8
15
14
77
10
45
47
25
5
40
20
Surviving
Casualty,
Subsequent
0
0
5
0
15
0
0
6
33
2
5
0
20
0
Fatality
Immediate
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Fatalities
Casualty,
93
0
136
69
41
0
145
37
172
8
320
0
430
168
Surviving
Casualty,
Subsequent
0
0
0
20
2
0
0
11
0
4
0
0
0
58
Fatality
Immediate
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Fatalities
Casualty,
298
34
320
35
100
4
325
14
522
109
575
170
1148
274
Surviving
Casualty,
Subsequent
21
4
0
6
0
4
8
14
8
53
0
65
0
78
Fatality
Immediate
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Fatalities
Casualty,
38
38
7
31
11
20
0
57
24
73
5
35
20
80
Surviving
Casualty,
Subsequent
0
16
11
6
14
2
15
0
24
33
25
0
40
10
Fatality
Immediate
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Fatalities
Casualty,
62
77
16
75
17
76
71
136
10
178
45
140
40
210
Surviving
Casualty,
Subsequent
0
8
36
9
43
12
13
0
87
22
70
30
150
40
Fatality
Immediate
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Fatalities
Casualty,
32
63
17
80
10
93
22
97
19
153
30
205
56
346
Surviving
Casualty,
Subsequent
45
1
29
10
34
15
13
49
64
73
155
20
172
52
Fatality
Immediate
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Fatalities
Casualty,
27
20
4
17
28
18
39
33
41
40
20
25
30
30
Surviving
Casualty,
Subsequent
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
52
0
20
5
38
0
Fatality
Immediate
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Fatalities
Casualty,
40
9
54
4
29
8
81
25
95
20
65
10
130
35
Surviving
Casualty,
Subsequent
2
0
7
0
8
0
0
0
43
0
25
5
70
15
Fatality
Immediate
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Fatalities
Casualty,
23
9
80
17
47
8
132
25
136
20
85
10
66
35
Surviving
Casualty,
Subsequent
25
0
14
4
3
2
0
0
4
0
90
0
112
15
Fatality
54
IX. OBSERVATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS
A.
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE VERSIONS OF AMedP-8
CHEMICAL
Upon the review and analysis performed to document the production of AMedP-8
Chemical, it became clear that several points were open to revision with the production of a
new AMedP-8 in the future. The objective of any revisions to AMedP-8 should be to
significantly add to the value of the information provided by making that information more
accessible and applicable, and/or to extend the information to more situations of interest.
Making information in AMedP-8 more accessible implies changing either the way the
information is presented or the format of the document. Currently, the information is
presented in a series of tables formatted to permit printing as hard copies. Some reformatting
suggestions are:




Use hypertext to improve user access to information. This would retain the
tabular format of the information, but make the electronic access to the data
faster by a user interface, which requires a minimum of information to have
the desired table display on the screen.
Incorporate graphical presentation of data. This would supplement the
tables with graphs. Some information is easier to grasp graphically. Of
course, some information is difficult to graph. Implementing this change
could significantly increase the size of AMedP-8. The challenge to the
AMedP-8 Custodian is to determine the optimum balance and structure of
graphical and tabular data presentation.
Include supporting algorithms. This would allow the AMedP-8 user to
algorithmically estimate performance fraction, fraction ill, time of onset, or
time of death for any given exposure level. The difficulty in implementing
this change is that there are currently no simple underlying algorithms for
the information presented in AMedP-8. Deriving or developing supporting
algorithms is associated with significant risk.
Include supplementary software. This would allow the AMedP-8 user to
estimate casualties for a multitude of situations. The difficulty in
implementing this format change is that there is currently no generic
software that does this. The closest available tool is the Casualty Estimation
(CE) module of the NBC Casualty Resource Estimation Support Tool
(CREST). If that is not acceptable, it would most likely be very difficult to
develop a completely new software tool that adequately responds to the
AMedP-8 users’ requirements.
IDA recognizes that AMedP-8 is directly applicable to only the limited number of
specific scenarios presented. To make information in AMedP-8 more applicable implies
adding more information that responds directly to the specific technical requirements of
55
AMedP-6 and AMedP-7. This additional information could be a compilation of the medical
treatment requirements (from AMedP-6) as applicable to the casualties in AMedP-8, or the
derivation of the analytic tools of AMedP-7, which depend on the casualty estimates
expressed in AMedP-8.
The scenarios used in AMedP-8 are also limited in extent and applicability. The
current AMedP-8 estimates casualties from a limited number of applications of military
weapons against a limited selection of deployed military force scenarios. Extending the
information in AMedP-8 to more situations of interest is one way to expand the utility of
AMedP-8. Additional situations could include:









B.
Additional degrees of injury (negligible, moderate, severe, fatal)
subcategories to a “casualty” definition. Each type of injury correlates to
specific ranges of insults, which in turn drive medical system requirements.
For example, in the “Severe Injury” category, personnel survive but require
skilled medical care for six weeks or longer.
Additional types of chemical agents
Multiple attacks on single units
Additional military deployment scenarios
Additional environments for military operations (urban, forest, etc.)
Terrorist use of chemical weapons against deployed military forces
Military and/or terrorist use of chemical weapons against civilian
populations
Expanded demographic characterization of population
Impact of protective measures and responses
 Physical protection, especially from tents, vehicles, etc.
 Medical protection
 Technical detection and medical surveillance
 Decontamination
 Medical care.
CONCLUSIONS
AMedP-8 Chemical added, for the first time, chemical casualty estimation to
NATO’s medical and operational NBC capabilities. Building on the methodology and
format developed and used in AMedP-8 Nuclear, it quantifies casualties by degree of
exposure, and describes the injuries and their effect on personnel performance by time
period. The documentation of AMedP-8 Chemical will provide a starting point for future
revisions and will help users better understand its capabilities and limitations. While
acknowledging that this is not a perfect document and that further work should be pursued to
56
improve its utility, AMedP-8 Chemical is a significant step toward preparedness for chemical
warfare and terrorism.
57
X. DEFINITIONS
ISC
Exposure
Insult
Effective dose
58
APPENDIX A
HEAVY BRIGADE, FORWARD MANEUVER, MOVEMENT TO CONTACT
APPENDIX B
HEAVY BRIGADE, BRIGADE SUPPORT AREA, MOVEMENT TO
CONTACT
APPENDIX C
HEAVY BRIGADE, FORWARD MANEUVER, OFFENSE
APPENDIX D
HEAVY BRIGADE, FORWARD MANEUVER, DEFENSE
APPENDIX E
HEAVY BRIGADE, BRIGADE SUPPORT AREA, OFFENSE OR DEFENSE
APPENDIX F
SUPPORT BRIGADE
APPENDIX G
LIGHT INFANTRY BRIGADE
APPENDIX H
TOE INFORMATION
A.
Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver Battalion and Brigade Support Area,
Movement to Contact
Table H-1. Heavy Brigade FM & BSA Movement to Contact
TOE #
44177L000, modified
63006L000
42004L100
43009L000
08058L100
05336L000
05337L000, modified
06366L200, modified
06367L200
Notes:
B.




Unit
Air Defense Arty Battery
Forward Support BN HQ&HQ Detachment
FSB Supply Co
FSB Ordnance Co
FSB Medical Co
FSB Engineer BN HHQ
FSB Eng Co 1, Eng Co 2, Eng Co 3
FSB Field Arty Bn HHB
Field Arty Batteries 1, 2 & 3
FLD TRN: In brigade with FSB
CBT TRN: In battalion near rear
MAINT: In battalion near rear
In BSA: BDE HHC; FSB; FLD TRN
Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area, Offense and Defense
Table H-2. Heavy Brigade BSA Offense/Defense
TOE #
44177L000, modified
63006L000
42004L100
43009L000
08058L100
05336L000
05337L000, modified
06366L200, modified
06369L100
Notes:



Unit
Air Defense Arty Battery
Forward Support BN HQ&HQ Detachment
FSB Supply Co
FSB Ordnance Co
FSB Medical Co
FSB Engineer BN HHQ
FSB Eng Co 1, Eng Co 2, Eng Co 3
FSB Field Arty BN HHB
Service Battery
FLD TRN: In brigade FSA
CBT TRN: In battalion rear area
MAINT: In battalion rear area
C.
Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver Battalion, Defense
Table H-3. Heavy Brigade FM Defense
TOE #
44177L000, modified
05337L000, modified
06366L200, modified
06367L200
Notes:


Unit
Air Defense Arty Battery(-)
Eng Co 1
Field Arty BN HHB
Field Arty Battery 1
CO TN: In company rear area
CBT TN: In battalion rear area
Assumptions:
No effort has been made to show the support elements (maint, supply, medic, and
mess) that would accompany the tank company when it joined the mech TF and the rifle
company that departed, because the total numbers of vehicles and personnel would be the
same for all practical purposes.
The artillery battalion CP has been arbitrarily placed in the TF area as
representative of brigade assets that would be located in the TF area. The number of
icons could be larger or smaller, depending on terrain and mission.
D.
Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver Battalion, Offense
Table H-4. Heavy Brigade FM Offense
TOE #
44177L000, modified
05337L000, modified
06366L200, modified
06367L200
Notes:


Unit
Air Defense Arty Battery(-)
Eng Co 1
Field Arty BN HHB
Field Arty Battery 1
CO TN: In company rear area
CBT TN: In battalion rear area
Assumptions:
No effort has been made to show the support elements (maint., supply, medic.,
and mess.) that would accompany the tank company when it joined the mech TF and the
rifle company that departed, because the total numbers of vehicles and personnel would
be the same for all practical purposes.
The artillery battalion CP has been arbitrarily placed in the TF area as a representative
of brigade assets that would be located in the TF area. The number of icons could be
larger or smaller depending on terrain and mission.
E.
Light Infantry Brigade
TOE information was not found during the documentation process for the Light
Infantry Brigade.
F.
Support Brigade
Table H-5. Support Brigade
TOE #
42447L-010
42414L
43209L
55718LL
63426L
9483L
43007L
43008L
09008L100
42007L100
0857L100
Unit
QM Supply Co
FSC
Direct Support Maint Co
Lt Maint Co
HHD CSB
DS Ammo Co
Light Ord Maint Co
Heavy Ord Maint Co
Ord Missile Maint
Supply & Service Co
Med Co
APPENDIX I
DATA PROCESSING
A.
Input Data Overview
This appendix details the inputs of the BioStrike and VLSTRACK models, used
during the production of AMedP-8 Chemical. Figure I-1 demonstrates the flow of data
that led to casualty estimates. Agent, munitions, and meteorological data were used by
the IDA variant of VLSTRACK, GRIDGEN, to model the agent cloud. This agent cloud
was then input into BioStrike and, together with attack points and troop data files, was
used by BioStrike to determine the chemical agent exposure to individuals in each
AMedP-8 scenario.
Attack Point
Troop Data
Meteorological Data
Agent Data
Munitions Data
VLSTRACK
(Gridgen)
Biostrike
Agent Cloud
Exposure to Individuals
Figure I-1. Data Processing Overview
B.
BioStrike Inputs
1.
Troop Data
The following input files were used to enter troop data into BioStrike. Each file
pertains to one of seven scenarios, as explained in Table I-1. Each file includes grid point
numbers, the x,y coordinates for each grid point, and number of troops at that location.
The troop files were called POSTM55.TRP, POSTM64.TRP, POSTM74.TRP,
POSTM81.TRP, POSTM82.TRP, POSTM83.TRP, and POSTM97.TRP.
POSTM81.TRP contains the troop data for the Heavy Brigade in Movement to Contact,
without a specific targeted area. Note that grid point numbers correspond to icon
numbers for these scenarios.
Table I-1. Scenario Labels for Troop Files
LABEL
UNIT TYPE
AREA TARGETED
MISSION
83
Heavy Brigade
Forward Maneuver Battalions Movement to Contact
97
Heavy Brigade
Forward Maneuver Battalions
Offense
74
Heavy Brigade
Forward Maneuver Battalions
Defense
82
Heavy Brigade
Brigade Support Area
Movement to Contact
55
Heavy Brigade
Brigade Support Area
Offense or Defense
64
Support Brigade
N/A
Support
67
Light Infantry Brigade
N/A
Defense
2.
Attack Points
For each scenario, attack points were determined via the optimization process
described in Section III.B.2. These attack points have been tabulated for the protected
and unprotected cases of each scenario/agent combination. For each attack, the table
provides information on the x,y coordinates of the attack point, the particular type of
munitions used, the number of rounds fired, and the height of release of the agent in that
attack. Tables I-2 through I-22 are organized by agent.
GB Attack Points
Table I-2. GB Attack Points: Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver,
Movement to Contact
GB Attack Points
Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver Battalions, Movement to Contact
Munition
# of rounds
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
X-wind Upwind Height of Release
Unprotected
20.25
34.00
0m
20.55
35.35
0m
18.30
20.15
0m
20.45
34.80
0m
18.10
20.10
0m
18.75
20.25
0m
17.55
20.30
0m
17.80
20.10
0m
17.95
21.45
0m
Protected
10.55
43.45
0m
20.60
33.25
0m
20.70
32.70
0m
16.50
23.00
0m
20.45
33.25
0m
20.45
33.25
0m
10.55
35.15
0m
20.75
44.55
0m
20.45
33.00
0m
Table I-3. GB Attack Points: Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area,
Movement to Contact
GB Attack Points
Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area, Movement to Contact
Munition
# of rounds
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
X-wind Upwind Height of Release
Unprotected
17.60
15.45
0m
17.80
16.80
0m
17.95
17.9
0m
17.65
16.15
0m
18.80
19.05
0m
17.65
19.55
0m
17.60
17.00
0m
17.75
19.95
0m
17.75
20.00
0m
Protected
17.80
18.50
0m
17.90
14.55
0m
17.60
15.30
0m
17.35
14.75
0m
17.70
14.75
0m
17.65
18.45
0m
17.70
18.65
0m
13.75
20.00
0m
17.10
14.90
0m
Table I-4. GB Attack Points: Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Offense
GB Attack Points
Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver Battalion, Offense
Munition
# of rounds
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
X-wind Upwind Height of Release
Unprotected
17.60
15.60
0m
10.80
44.50
0m
8.50
50.00
0m
10.70
43.80
0m
9.00
50.50
0m
8.90
51.80
0m
9.00
50.50
0m
8.90
51.80
0m
8.80
53.90
0m
Protected
9.10
48.30
0m
9.20
48.30
0m
10.70
49.90
0m
8.90
48.20
0m
10.70
50.70
0m
10.70
50.90
0m
9.30
45.80
0m
12.60
49.70
0m
8.00
48.30
0m
Table I-5. GB Attack Points: Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Defense
GB Attack Points
Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Defense
Munition
# of rounds
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
X-wind Upwind Height of Release
Unprotected
10.80
38.20
0m
10.70
39.60
0m
10.80
40.50
0m
10.90
39.20
0m
10.70
40.50
0m
10.70
41.90
0m
10.80
40.50
0m
10.60
42.10
0m
11.60
52.00
0m
Protected
6.70
41.20
0m
11.10
37.60
0m
10.70
37.90
0m
13.30
48.60
0m
10.70
37.70
0m
10.50
37.60
0m
13.40
48.70
0m
8.30
50.80
0m
8.60
46.90
0m
Table I-6. GB Attack Points: Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area,
Offense and Defense
GB Attack Points
Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area, Offense or Defense
Munition
# of rounds
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
X-wind Upwind Height of Release
Unprotected
15.50
19.10
0m
16.00
18.90
0m
16.20
20.00
0m
15.50
19.70
0m
15.90
20.00
0m
15.90
19.60
0m
15.50
20.00
0m
15.60
20.00
0m
15.60
20.00
0m
Protected
15.60
18.40
0m
16.40
16.70
0m
15.40
18.90
0m
16.30
16.50
0m
15.50
18.40
0m
15.80
16.90
0m
15.60
18.40
0m
15.70
18.10
0m
15.20
18.60
0m
Table I-7. GB Attack Points: Support Brigade
GB Attack Points
Support Brigade
Munition
# of rounds
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
X-wind Upwind Height of Release
Unprotected
17.40
24.80
0m
17.50
26.10
0m
18.00
25.60
0m
17.40
25.70
0m
17.20
26.90
0m
17.20
28.10
0m
17.30
26.70
0m
17.50
28.60
0m
17.70
29.00
0m
Protected
16.30
23.50
0m
17.40
24.30
0m
17.30
24.60
0m
12.20
22.30
0m
17.40
24.00
0m
17.50
24.00
0m
16.50
27.50
0m
10.60
24.40
0m
18.70
25.10
0m
Table I-8. GB Attack Points: Light Infantry Brigade
GB Attack Points
Light Infantry Brigade
Munition
# of rounds
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
X-wind Upwind Height of Release
Unprotected
5.90
13.90
0m
5.70
15.20
0m
5.50
16.20
0m
5.80
15.00
0m
5.70
16.30
0m
5.70
17.30
0m
5.80
16.40
0m
5.30
17.50
0m
5.30
18.00
0m
Protected
5.90
13.10
0m
5.70
13.10
0m
5.70
14.40
0m
5.30
16.30
0m
5.80
12.90
0m
5.80
14.30
0m
6.00
13.00
0m
4.90
12.10
0m
7.60
13.10
0m
VX Attack Points
Table I-9. VX Attack Points: Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver,
Movement to Contact
VX Attack Points
Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver Battalions, Movement to Contact
Munition
# of rounds
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
X-wind Upwind Height of Release
Unprotected
18.70
20.30
15m
20.60
34.70
15m
20.45
35.30
15m
17.95
20.60
70m
18.75
20.30
70m
17.65
20.15
70m
18.40
35.30
500m
17.40
31.40
800m
17.75
46.95
800m
Protected
17.70
20.30
15m
20.60
34.70
15m
20.45
35.00
15m
17.95
20.60
70m
18.75
20.30
70m
17.65
20.15
70m
17.90
20.15
500m
20.70
33.85
800m
18.15
20.15
800m
Table I-10. VX Attack Points: Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area,
Movement to Contact
VX Attack Points
Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area, Movement to Contact
Munition
# of rounds
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
X-wind Upwind Height of Release
Unprotected
17.60
15.80
15m
17.70
16.20
15m
17.85
16.85
15m
17.65
17.60
70m
17.60
18.20
70m
17.65
20.00
70m
17.90
20.00
500m
19.65
19.90
800m
18.30
20.00
800m
Protected
17.60
15.80
15m
17.70
16.15
15m
17.90
16.40
15m
17.65
17.60
70m
17.60
18.20
70m
17.65
20.00
70m
17.65
16.30
500m
17.95
15.25
800m
18.00
15.65
800m
Table I-11. VX Attack Points: Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Offense
VX Attack Points
Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver Battalion, Offense
Munition
# of rounds
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
X-wind Upwind Height of Release
Unprotected
10.90
43.55
15m
10.75
43.80
15m
10.80
44.50
15m
9.10
50.60
70m
8.95
51.85
70m
9.15
52.00
70m
10.40
52.00
500m
8.65
52.00
800m
9.65
51.40
800m
Protected
10.90
43.55
15m
10.75
43.75
15m
10.90
44.10
15m
9.10
50.60
70m
8.95
51.85
70m
9.15
52.00
70m
10.65
43.95
500m
10.75
43.1
800m
10.20
48.50
800m
Table I-12. VX Attack Points: Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Defense
VX Attack Points
Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Defense
Munition
# of rounds
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
X-wind Upwind Height of Release
Unprotected
10.80
38.70
15m
10.60
38.90
15m
10.55
39.55
15m
10.70
40.30
70m
10.70
41.10
70m
10.70
41.85
70m
10.90
59.80
500m
10.50
58.80
800m
11.70
59.90
800m
Protected
10.80
38.70
15m
10.60
38.90
15m
10.55
39.55
15m
10.70
40.30
70m
10.70
41.10
70m
10.70
41.85
70m
11.00
38.55
500m
8.95
47.5
800m
10.50
39.45
800m
Table I-13. VX Attack Points: Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area,
Offense and Defense
VX Attack Points
Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area, Offense or Defense
Munition
# of rounds
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
X-wind Upwind Height of Release
Unprotected
15.50
19.45
15m
15.40
19.80
15m
16.20
18.85
15m
16.10
18.25
70m
15.90
19.60
70m
15.90
19.45
70m
15.50
19.70
500m
14.60
20.00
800m
15.60
19.90
800m
Protected
15.50
19.45
15m
15.45
19.80
15m
16.05
20.00
15m
16.10
18.25
70m
15.90
19.60
70m
15.90
19.45
70m
15.50
19.00
500m
15.45
19.15
800m
15.20
20.00
800m
Table I-14. VX Attack Points: Support Brigade
VX Attack Points
Support Brigade
Munition
# of rounds
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
X-wind Upwind Height of Release
Unprotected
17.30
24.95
15m
17.35
25.50
15m
17.70
26.20
15m
17.35
27.10
70m
17.35
28.20
70m
17.35
29.20
70m
16.80
30.00
500m
19.30
30.00
800m
17.95
29.00
800m
Protected
17.30
24.95
15m
17.50
25.65
15m
17.75
25.75
15m
17.35
27.10
70m
17.35
28.20
70m
17.35
29.20
70m
17.35
25.50
500m
17.70
24.20
800m
17.55
25.50
800m
Table I-15. VX Attack Points: Light Infantry Brigade
VX Attack Points
Light Infantry Brigade
Munition
# of rounds
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
X-wind Upwind Height of Release
Unprotected
5.60
14.20
15m
5.70
14.65
15m
5.50
15.15
15m
5.85
16.40
70m
5.65
17.35
70m
5.65
18.00
70m
6.40
18.00
500m
7.65
18.00
800m
6.25
17.95
800m
Protected
5.60
14.20
15m
5.70
14.65
15m
5.65
14.75
15m
5.85
16.40
70m
5.65
17.35
70m
5.65
18.00
70m
6.40
18.00
500m
5.70
13.55
800m
5.90
15.70
800m
HD Attack Points
Table I-16. HD Attack Points: Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver,
Movement to Contact
HD Attack Points
Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver Battalions, Movement to Contact
Munition
# of rounds
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
X-wind Upwind Height of Release
Unprotected
10.55
43.65
15m
17.80
21.15
15m
18.25
24.40
15m
20.40
33.65
70m
20.55
33.75
70m
20.55
33.85
70m
20.40
33.80
500m
20.50
34.10
800m
20.50
34.05
800m
Protected
13.35
41.15
15m
21.25
45.55
15m
18.25
20.00
15m
20.40
33.65
70m
20.55
33.60
70m
20.55
33.90
70m
20.30
33.45
500m
6.30
44.15
800m
6.10
44.15
800m
Table I-17. HD Attack Points: Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area,
Movement to Contact
HD Attack Points
Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area, Movement to Contact
Munition
# of rounds
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
X-wind Upwind Height of Release
Unprotected
17.55
14.85
15m
17.85
19.55
15m
18.25
20.00
15m
17.60
15.00
70m
17.65
15.20
70m
17.65
15.50
70m
17.65
15.20
500m
17.95
15.45
800m
17.50
15.95
800m
Protected
10.75
19.65
15m
17.75
17.35
15m
18.75
18.10
15m
17.65
14.90
70m
17.65
15.05
70m
17.65
15.40
70m
17.55
14.95
500m
14.60
15.50
800m
14.20
16.15
800m
Table I-18. HD Attack Points: Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Offense
HD Attack Points
Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver Battalion, Offense
Munition
# of rounds
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
X-wind Upwind Height of Release
Unprotected
7.85
48.60
15m
9.00
52.00
15m
10.70
52.00
15m
7.75
48.65
70m
10.70
42.80
70m
10.70
43.10
70m
10.90
42.85
500m
10.60
43.25
800m
10.35
47.55
800m
Protected
9.10
46.85
15m
9.20
48.50
15m
9.05
50.95
15m
10.60
42.70
70m
10.65
42.70
70m
10.65
42.90
70m
10.50
42.70
500m
6.10
50.00
800m
11.25
42.25
800m
Table I-19. HD Attack Points: Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Defense
HD Attack Points
Heavy Brigade, Forward Maneuver, Defense
Munition
# of rounds
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
X-wind Upwind Height of Release
Unprotected
8.50
47.20
15m
10.75
44.65
15m
11.20
52.65
15m
8.35
47.40
70m
10.70
37.75
70m
10.55
38.15
70m
10.85
44.65
500m
10.60
38.55
800m
11.35
37.95
800m
Protected
6.75
41.10
15m
10.75
39.80
15m
10.55
39.60
15m
8.35
47.40
70m
10.65
37.75
70m
10.70
37.95
70m
13.50
48.75
500m
8.05
50.85
800m
11.35
37.95
800m
Table I-20. HD Attack Points: Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area,
Offense and Defense
HD Attack Points
Heavy Brigade, Brigade Support Area, Offense or Defense
Munition
# of rounds
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
X-wind Upwind Height of Release
Unprotected
15.65
18.45
15m
15.90
19.80
15m
15.80
20.00
15m
15.50
18.60
70m
15.40
18.70
70m
15.40
19.05
70m
15.60
18.75
500m
15.25
19.30
800m
15.25
19.60
800m
Protected
16.10
16.60
15m
15.40
20.00
15m
15.95
19.35
15m
15.45
18.55
70m
15.45
18.55
70m
15.35
18.90
70m
16.20
16.70
500m
15.55
17.45
800m
15.55
17.45
800m
Table I-21. HD Attack Points: Support Brigade
HD Attack Points
Support Brigade
Munition
# of rounds
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
X-wind Upwind Height of Release
Unprotected
17.30
24.00
15m
17.55
28.10
15m
17.90
30.00
15m
17.40
24.40
70m
17.35
24.45
70m
17.35
24.55
70m
17.30
24.55
500m
17.65
24.75
800m
17.15
25.20
800m
Protected
12.30
25.05
15m
17.50
25.90
15m
17.65
25.10
15m
17.30
24.70
70m
17.35
24.35
70m
17.35
24.65
70m
17.35
24.20
500m
12.10
22.60
800m
11.70
23.25
800m
Table I-22. HD Attack Points: Light Infantry Brigade
HD Attack Points
Light Infantry Brigade
Munition
# of rounds
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
152mm Artillery
MRLS
MRLS
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg Bomb
250kg TBM
500kg TBM
500kg TBM
18
240
720
2
12
24
1
2
4
X-wind Upwind Height of Release
Unprotected
6.00
14.55
15m
5.70
17.85
15m
6.15
18.00
15m
5.50
14.20
70m
5.65
13.25
70m
5.75
14.65
70m
6.00
14.55
500m
5.70
13.90
800m
5.80
14.70
800m
Protected
4.60
14.55
15m
5.75
15.05
15m
5.55
15.15
15m
5.65
13.35
70m
5.65
13.35
70m
5.65
13.80
70m
5.85
15.00
500m
4.90
13.40
800m
4.90
13.40
800m
C.
VLSTRACK Inputs
1.
Agent Characteristics
During the production of casualty estimates for AMedP-8 Chemical, the values in
Table I-23 were used as VLSTRACK inputs for chemical agent properties. In most
cases, these values correspond to VLSTRACK defaults. According to VLSTRACK
documentation, the physical properties for agents addressed by the model were listed in a
file named VLSAGN.PAR.32
Table I-23. VLSTRACK Agent Characteristics33
Characteristic
Definition
Bulk Density (g/cm3)
The density for neat chemical agents in liquid form.
Dissemination
Efficiency (%)
The percent of the bulk munition fill that is effectively dispersed into the
atmosphere (the remainder is destroyed by the detonation).
Median Effective
Dose (mg)
Typically referred to as ED50; the dose required to cause effects in 50% of the
population exposed to that dose. For chemical agents, ED50 is generally
measured in milligrams (mg).
Probit Slope
Expressed in base-10, the slope of the curve used to represent human
response to doses of harmful substances; in this case, the y-axis is the
administered dose, and the x-axis is the probability of response.
Freezing Temperature
(oC)
The temperature at which a material freezes; same as Freezing Point.
Molecular Weight
(g/mole)
Mass in grams of one mole of molecules; the same as molar mass.
Volatility Coefficients
With molecular weight and air temperature data, used to calculate volatility of
persistent chemical agent.
Heat of Vaporization
(cm2/s2)
Heat of vaporization is energy absorbed during the change of a mole of liquid to
a vapor without a change in temperature.
Viscosity (g/cm-s)
The tendency of a fluid to resist internal flow without regard to its density.
Surface Tension
(dyne/cm)
The tangential force acting at the interface between a liquid and air (or, more
correctly, its own vapor) caused by the difference in attraction between liquid
molecules and gaseous molecules. (Also called surface energy, surface free
energy, capillary forces, interfacial tension.)34
Agent Vapor
Diffusivity in Air
(cm2/s)
Droplet Spread Factor
32
The rate at which agent vapor diffuses.
The ratio of droplet diameter for a droplet on the ground to that of a droplet
falling at its terminal velocity in the air.
Bauer et al., 1995
Unless noted otherwise, the definitions of data categories provided here are taken from Bauer, Timothy,
op. cit., pp. 3-79 to 3-85.
34
amsglossary.allenpress.com/glossary/browse
33
Type Category
Bulk Density (g/cm3)
Dissemination Efficiency
Probit Slope
Freezing Temp (C) - Persistent/
Dusty
Boiling Temp (C) - Dense Gas
ATP-45 NBC Message Term
Molecular Weight (g/mole)
Volatility
Coefficient 1
Volatility
Coefficient 2
Volatility
Coefficient 3
Heat of Vaporization (cm2/s2)
Viscosity (g/cm-s)
Surface Tension (dyne/cm)
Agent Vapor Diffusivity in Air
(cm2/s)
Droplet Spread Factor
VX
1
1.01
60
30
6.30
-50
'VX'
267.4
7.28
2072.1
172.5
3.39E+09
0.123
32.0
0.033
3.5
GB (Sarin)
GB
1
1.09
60
70
12.00
-57
'GB'
140.1
7.48
1773.8
227.9
3.35E+09
0.014
28.8
0.059
3.5
HD (Mustard)
HD
1
1.27
60
1000
5.70
9
'HD'
159.1
7.47
1935.5
204.2
3.89E+09
0.045
43.2
0.057
3.5
LD50
Agent Abbr.
VX
(mg-min/m3)
Agent Name
Table I-24. VLSTRACK Agent Values
2.
Munitions Characteristics
During the production of casualty estimates for AMedP-8 Chemical, the values in
Table I-24 were used as VLSTRACK inputs for munitions properties. In many cases,
these values correspond to VLSTRACK defaults. According to VLSTRACK
documentation, the physical properties for munitions used by the model were listed in a
file named VLSMUN.PAR.35 For each munitions type, Typical Height of Burst is also
listed in the VLSMUN.PAR file, but has been omitted from Table I-24. Typical Height
of Burst values differed from VLSTRACK default values and can be found in Tables I-2
through I-22. For each agent/munitions combination SAIC optimized height of burst, and
the optimization methodology was not available for documentation.
Values in the category Typical Number of Munitions in Attack also differed from
VLSTRACK default values. In Table I-24, one, two, or three values are listed for each
munition type, indicating the number of attacks conducted with that munitions type in
AMedP-8 Chemical. For example, three attacks were conducted with 250kg bombs; one
attack employed 2 rounds (light attack), another employed 12 rounds (moderate attack),
and a third employed 24 rounds (heavy attack). However, only one attack was
considered using the 250kg TBM, employing one round.
Table I-25. Delivery System and Munitions Characteristics36
Characteristic
35
36
Definition
Bauer et al., 1995
The definitions of characterisitics provided here are taken from Bauer, Timothy, op. cit., pp. 3-76 to 3-78.
Fill Weight (kg)
The weight of the agent fill contained in the munitions, at 1.0 g/cm3. For
given agent, fill weight is multiplied by bulk density to determine the actual
weight of agent used.
Height of Burst (m)
The altitude at which the munitions explodes or otherwise releases agent.
Firing Rate (rounds/min)
For munitions typically delivered in volleys, such as artillery shells, the rate
at which they are fired at their target.
Number of Munitions in
Attack
The number of munitions expected in a single volley.
Downrange and Crossrange Target Standard
Deviations (m)
These values represent the accuracy of detonation coordinates relative to
the target.
Droplet Mass-Median
Diameter (microns)
For chemical agents, this value is typically a function of the munition fuzing
and similar among munitions of a given type.
Droplet Distribution
Sigma
For chemical agents, this value is typically a function of the munition fuzing
and similar among munitions of a given type.
Line Source Length (m)
The length of the line along which the payload of a large delivery system
(such as bombs or missiles) is released, if release occurs above ground at
high velocity, and if the munition is appropriately fuzed.
Line Source Fall Angle
(degrees)
The angle between the horizontal and the line along which agent is
released.
Cloud Sigma
Values used to represent the trivariate Gaussian distribution of mass away
from the detonation point. For single point releases, these values are
defined for both vertical and horizontal spread. For line sources, a single
value is used to represent the radial distribution away from the axis of the
line source.
Table I-26. VLSTRACK Delivery System and Munitions Data
Typical Number of
Munitions in Attack
Typical Firing Rate
(rds/min)
Fill Weight (kg) (at 1.0
g/cm3)
ATP-45 NBC Message
Munition Term
Point Source Horizontal
Cloud Sigma (m)
Point Source Vertical
Cloud Sigma (m)
Downrange Target
Standard Deviation (m)
Crossrange Target
Standard Deviation (m)
Neat Agent Droplet MassMedian Diameter (MMD)
(microns)
Thickened Agent Droplet
Mass-Median Diameter
(MMD) (microns)
Geometric Droplet
Distribution Sigma
Line Source Cloud Sigma
(m)
18
10
4
'SHL'
3
1.3
100
100
150
750
1.7
N/A
N/A N/A
MRLS (122mm Rocket)
GB/VX/HD
1
240/ 720
0
9
'SHL'
2
1.2
100
100
150
750
1.7
N/A
N/A N/A
250kg Bomb
GB/VX/HD
2
002/ 012/ 024
4
75
'BOM'
14
6
150
50
500
2500
1.7
8
50
45
500kg TBM
GB/VX/HD
3
002/ 004
1
500
'MSL'
6
N/A
500
500
100
500
1.7
N/A
200
45
250kg TBM
GB/VX/HD
3
1
1
250
' '
6
N/A
999
999
100
500
1.7
N/A
200
45
3.
Line Source Fall Angle
(deg)
Munition Type Category
1
Line Source Length (m)
Fill Agent Abbr.
GB/VX/HD
Munition Name
152mm Artillery
Meteorology Characteristics
In AMedP-8 Chemical, worst-case meteorological conditions were assumed
during the calculation of casualty estimates.37 Table I-25 lists the wind speed,
temperature, local attack time, and cloud cover information used for each agentmunitions combination. In addition to the meteorology characteristics listed in Table I27, VLSTRACK also requires latitude and longitude coordinates to calculate the sun
angle.
Table I-27. VLSTRACK Meteorology Characteristics38
Characteristic
Definition
Wind Direction
In degrees true North (DTN), where 0 DTN is to the North (from the South), 90
DTN is to the East (from the West), 180 DTN is to the South (from the North), and
270 DTN is to the West (from the east).
Wind Speed (km/hr)
For wind speeds less than 1.8 km/hr, VLSTRACK uses a wind meander approach
where it assigns a random wind direction for each time step.
Air Temperature
(OC)
A negative air temperature is subtracted from 50 to result in a number from 51 to
99.
Degree of Cloud
Cover
In VLSTRACK, this is represented by selecting from “clear,” “partly cloudy,” and
“overcast.”
Pasquill Stability
Category
This is a characterization of atmospheric stability and ranges from very stable
(category 7) to very unstable (category 1). If the user sets the stability category to
0, the program will calculate atmospheric stability from other meteorological
inputs, time of day, and location on the globe.
37
38
Please refer to Section II.B.3 for an explanation of worst-case meteorological conditions.
Bauer et al., 1995
Table I-28. VLSTRACK Meteorology Values
Agent
GB
Dissemination
Munition
Attack
Intensity
MRLS/artillery
Rounds
Light (x18)
Mod. (x240)
Heavy (x720)
Light
(2x 250 kg)
Moderate
(12 x 250 kg)
Heavy
(24x 250 kg)
Light
(1x 250 L)
Moderate
(2x 500 L)
Heavy
(4x 500 L)
Light
3
6
10
4
Moderate
Heavy
Light
Moderate
Heavy
Light
Moderate
Heavy
Light
8
8
30
30
30
4
4
6
0
Moderate
Heavy
Light
Moderate
Heavy
Light
Moderate
Heavy
0
2
22
20
20
0
0
0
Bomb
TBM
VX
MRLS/artillery
Rounds
Bomb
TBM
HD
Weather Conditions
MRLS/artillery
Rounds
Bomb
TBM
Wind
Speed
Temperature
(Season)
Local Attack
Time
Cloud
Cover
16-25OC (Autumn)
1900
Clear
24-32OC (Summer)
1900
Partly Cloudy
24-32OC (Summer)
1900
Partly Cloudy
5-12OC (Winter)
0500
Clear
24-32OC (Summer)
0500
Partly Cloudy
24-32OC (Summer)
1200
Clear
5-12OC (Winter)
1200
Clear
9
10
8
10
12
14
APPENDIX J
DETERMINATION OF EFFECTIVE DOSE
A.
Definitions and Variables
Effective Dose (ED): an estimate of the equivalent vapor exposure (or dosage) level
which produces severe effects corresponding to those produced by simultaneous exposure
to two different types and/or forms of insult (i.e., liquid and aerosol)
ICt50: the time-integrated agent vapor concentration that will produce severe effects in
50% of the exposed population; may refer to inhalation effects and/or percutaneous and
eye exposures [measured in mg-min/m3]
ED50: the liquid agent mass that will produce severe effects in 50% of the exposed
population – assumes the typical population is represented by a 70 kg man assumed to
have agent deposited over a 1 m2 surface of the body [measured in mg/man]
ICt50(GB/IH/V): median exposure values that cause serious effects from inhaling (IH)
the vapor (V) form of GB; this is similar for inhalation and percutaneous (PC) exposures
resulting from vapor concentrations of VX and HD
ED50(GB/PC/L): median exposure values that cause serious effects from percutaneous
(PC) exposure to the liquid (L) form of GB; this is similar for percutaneous exposures
resulting from liquid concentrations of VX and HD
D(VX/IH/V): downwind exposure level from inhaling (IH) the vapor (V) form of VX
ED(GB/IH/V): calculated effective dose due to the inhalation (IH) of the vapor (V) form
of GB which would produce corresponding effects as a result of exposure to both vapor
and liquid insults
D v:
vapor dose (mg-min/m3)
D l:
liquid dose (mg/man)
D1v:
first period (1 min) vapor dose (mg-min/m3) as given by VLSTRACK
D2v:
second period (8 min) vapor dose (mg-min/m3) as given by VLSTRACK
D1l:
first period (1 min) liquid dose (mg/man) as given by VLSTRACK – for
conversion from VLSTRACK deposition values, multiply by 1m2/man
D2l:
second period (8 min) liquid dose (mg/man) as given by VLSTRACK – for
conversion from VLSTRACK deposition values, multiply by 1m2/man
Dav:
first period vapor dose (mg-min/m3) as used in the DICE algorithm – for
protection available, equal to D1v – applies to systemic (GB,VX) or respiratory,
systemic and ocular (HD) exposure only
Dal:
first period liquid dose (mg/ m2*1m2/man) as used in the DICE algorithm – for
protection available, equal to D1l – applies to systemic (GB,VX) or respiratory,
systemic and ocular (HD) exposure only
Dbv:
combined first and second period VLSTRACK vapor dose (mg-min/m3) as used
in the DICE algorithm – for protection available, equal to D1v + D2v(1 – a) –
applies to systemic (GB,VX) or skin (HD) exposure only
Dbl:
combined first and second period VLSTRACK liquid dose (mg/ m2*1m2/man) as
used in the DICE algorithm – for protection available, equal to D1l + D2l(1 – a) –
applies to systemic (GB,VX) or skin (HD) exposure only
F:
factor which converts percutaneous vapor and liquid doses to effective inhalation
doses
(1– a): fraction (.93) of the body that is assumed to be unprotected by the mask and hood
during the second period (prior to total protection by overgarments)
B.
Notes
1. Estimates of performance are made as a function of dose level and postexposure time,
so it is important to determine dose level for each agent.
2. An effective dose calculation is used when the agent insult takes more than one form
and/or exposure to the agent produces multiple and varied effects (i.e., systemic/respiratory,
ocular and skin). In addition, the effective dose formulation is used to put VX exposure in terms
of GB exposure for reasonable comparison; this was necessary because at the time of document
production, no VX sign and symptom information was available.
3. Effective dose calculations vary depending on whether protection is or is not
available.
a. If protection is assumed to be unavailable, only the battle dress uniform (BDU) is
assumed with no overgarment protection; the BDU is assumed to offer no
protective effect and personnel are exposed to both liquid and vapor forms of the
agent.
b. If protection is assumed to be available, it is assumed:
1) During the first minute following the arrival of the agent cloud, personnel are
not protected by any overgarments;
2) During the following eight minutes, personnel are protected by wearing a
mask (and the associated hood) which provides 100% inhalation and ocular
protection, as well as protection for 7% of the skin;
3) After nine minutes, personnel are protected from all forms of agent exposure
by the complete overgarment at the MOPP 4 level; overgarment is assumed to
be 100% effective in preventing exposure.
4. For the protection unavailable case, the vapor and liquid doses are assumed to be
constant, so:
a. Dv = D1v = D2v = Dav = Dbv
b. Dl = D1l = D2l = Dal = Dbl
5. The breathing rate for all troops during the exposure period is assumed to be 15 l/min.
6. The following additional assumptions apply:
a. Exacerbation of 1st period exposure by protective gear trapping agent next to the
skin during the 2nd and 3rd periods is not considered.
b. Encumbrance, heat stress, and possible skin irritation caused by wearing MOPP 4
gear are not considered.
c. Entire dosage received during the protection unavailable period is assumed to be
short-term exposure (10 min or less).
d. Pickup of liquid agent by contact with the contaminated environment is not
considered.
C.
Human Response Calculations
The Institute for Defense Analyses calculated exposure data with Vapor, Liquid, and
Solid Tracking (VLSTRACK) clouds used in BioStrike. They provided scenario-specific
exposure data for GB, VX, and HD attacks to Pacific-Sierra Research Corporation (PSR). PSR
used these values with the DICE algorithms (further described in Appendix L) to determine
performance degradation, numbers of casualties over time, and fatalities. The equations below
show the effective dose calculations both as they would be used with the VLSTRACK/Biostrike
data and as the data was converted for use in the DICE algorithm.
VLSTRACK provides both vapor concentration clouds in mg-min/m3 and liquid
deposition on a horizontal surface in mg/m2 for chemical warfare agents. Clouds generated in
VLSTRACK were utilized as inputs in BioStrike to determine the dose received by individuals
in each formation. Effective vapor doses needed to be determined because the DICE algorithms
were developed for use with vapor exposure only.
a.
Effective Dose Calculation for GB
To determine the effective dose for GB, the following equations were used for the
unprotected and protected cases, respectively.
EDGB w/o protection = Dv + DvFa + DlFb
EDGB w/protection = D1v(1+ Fa) + D2v(1 – a)Fa + D1lFb + D2l(1 – a)Fb
Fa and Fb are factors for converting percutaneous GB vapor and liquid exposures to
comparable inhalation values for use in the DICE algorithm. The ICt50 and ED50 values can be
determined from Figures J-1 and J-2, shown below. The following are the calculated values of
Fa and Fb:
Fa = ICt50(GB/IH/V)/ICt50 (GB/PC/V) = 35/8000 = .0044
Fb = ICt50(GB/IH/V)/ED50(GB/PC/L) = 35/1000 = .035
Figure J-1. Inhalation and Ocular Dose response for GB vapor exposure endpoints39
Figure J-2. Percutaneous Dose response for GB vapor and liquid exposure endpoints
For GB, the AMedP-8 working group decided to neglect liquid exposure. Although it is
not specifically stated in the original documents, we believe this was due to the liquid exposure
concentration of the generated GB clouds being below the minimum VLSTRACK measurable
concentration values. Neglecting GB liquid exposure results in the following equation:
39
All dose response curve graphs from McClellan et al., 1998.
EDGB w/o protection = Dv (1 + Fa)
EDGB w/protection = D1v + [D1v + D2v(1 – a)]Fa
In order to make the IDA data from Biostrike usable in the PSR model, the equation above needs
to be converted to the Biostrike output format:
Without Protection:
EDGB w/o protection = Dav (1 + Fa)
With Protection:
EDGB w/protection = Dav + DbvFa
EDGB w/protection (0-1 min, inhalation) = Dav
EDGB w/protection (0-9 min, percutaneous) = DbvFa
This effective dose is used to determine the severity of all symptom categories for GB exposure.
2.
Effective Dose Calculation for VX
To determine the effective dose for VX, as previously discussed, the VX values must first
be converted to equivalent vapor doses for GB. The following equations were used for the
unprotected and protected cases respectively.
EDVX w/o protection = Dv(Fc + Fd) + DlFe
EDVX w/protection = D1v(Fc + Fd) + D2v(1 – a)Fd + D1lFe + D2l(1 – a)Fe
Fc, Fd, and Fe are factors for converting inhalation VX and percutaneous VX vapor and
liquid exposures to comparable GB inhalation values for use in the DICE algorithm. Please note
that the equation for Fc as given in the reference is:
Fc = ICt50 (GB/IH/V)/ICt50 (GB/PC/L) = 35/25 = 1.4
Upon review, it became apparent that there was a typographical error in the document. The
correct equation appears to be the one given below. The numerical values above are correct for
the calculation of Fc; only the reference to the ICt50 of percutaneous GB in liquid form is
incorrect. Rather, the equation should convert the ICt50 of inhaled vapor VX. The ICt50 and
ED50 values can be determined from Figures J-3 and J-4, shown below. The following are the
calculated values of Fc, Fd, and Fe:
Fc = ICt50 (GB/IH/V)/ICt50 (VX/IH/V) = 35/25 = 1.4
Fd = ICt50 (GB/IH/V)/ICt50 (VX/PC/V) = 35/25 = 1.4
Fe = ICt50 (GB/IH/V)/ED50 (VX/PC/L) = 35/5 = 7
Figure J-3. Inhalation and Ocular Dose response for VX vapor exposure endpoints
Figure J-4. Percutaneous Dose response for VX vapor and liquid exposure endpoints
In order to make the IDA data from Biostrike usable in the PSR model, the equation above needs
to be converted to the Biostrike output format:
Without Protection:
EDVX w/o protection = Dav(Fc + Fd) + DalFe
Without Protection:
EDVX w/protection = DavFc + DbvFd + DblFe
EDVX w/protection (0-1 min, inhalation) = DavFc
EDVX w/protection (0-9 min, percutaneous) = DbvFd + DblFe
These effective dose calculations determine the severity of all symptom categories for
VX in terms of the equivalent GB exposure; in order to calculate the equivalent injury severity
category, the EDvx should be entered into the GB injury severity table (Table IV-1), vice the VX
injury severity table (Table IV-2). In addition, these values are used in the DICE algorithms for
GB as if representing GB vapor dosages.
3.
Effective Dose Calculation for HD
Because of its effects on various systems, the effective dose calculations for HD are more
complex. For the HD cases, vapor dose is assumed to be the only cause for eye effects; liquid
contact with the eyes is neglected. In addition, only vapor dose is assumed to cause respiratory,
systemic, and ocular damage; both vapor dose and liquid deposition are assumed to cause skin
damage. The following equations were used for the unprotected and protected cases
respectively.
EDHD w/o protection SK = Dv + DlFf
EDHD w/o protection SY,RE,OC = Dv
EDHD w/protection SK = D1v + D2v(1 – a) + D1lFf + D2l(1 – a)Ff
EDHD w/protection SY, RE, OC = D1v
Upon review, it became apparent that the effective dose equations given in Anno, et al. applied
to skin exposure only, despite a typographical error stating that the skin effective dose without
protection equation given above applied to skin, ocular, and respiratory/systemic effects.
Because only vapor exposure results in ocular, systemic, and respiratory effects, the effective
dose with protection for ocular and systemic/respiratory effects is due solely to the vapor
exposure in the first minute before the mask is donned, as shown above.
Ff is the factor used for converting percutaneous HD liquid effects into percutaneous HD
vapor effects for use in the DICE algorithm. The ICt50 and ED50 values can be determined from
Figures J-5 and J-6, shown below. The following is the calculated value of Ff:
Ff = ICt50 (HD/PC/V)/ED50 (HD/PC/L) = 2000/1400 = 1.4
Figure J-5. Inhalation and Ocular Dose response for HD vapor exposure endpoints
Figure J-6. Percutaneous Dose response for HD vapor and liquid exposure endpoints
In order to make the IDA data from Biostrike usable in the PSR model, the equation above needs
to be converted to the Biostrike output format:
Without Protection:
EDHD w/o protection (SY, RE, OC) = Dav
EDHD w/o protection (percutaneous/SK) = Dav + DalFf
With Protection:
EDHD w/protection (0-1 min, SY, RE, OC) = Dav
EDHD w/protection (0-9 min, percutaneous/SK) = Dbv + DblFf
This effective dose is used in the DICE algorithms. To calculate performance, a symptom
severity category for each system – ocular, respiratory, systemic, and skin – is assigned based on
the effective dose. The symptom severity category changes over time as described in Appendix
K. These symptom severity categories are used in the calculation of performance as described in
Appendix L.
APPENDIX K
CONSTRUCTION OF EXPOSURE RANGES
A
Construction of Exposure Ranges for GB
To establish the exposure ranges for GB, the 10%, 50% and 90% incidence doses
for mild ocular effects, severe inhalation effects, and lethality inhalation were used.
These values can be calculated from Figure K-1, shown below. In addition, distinct signs
and symptoms, as discussed by Deverill and the ranges normally associated with the
symptomatology40 provided the basis for the established exposure ranges.
Figure K-1. Inhalation and Ocular Dose response for GB vapor exposure endpoints
40
Deverill, A.P. et al., 1994
Figure K-2 shows the percutaneous effects due to liquid and vapor exposure to GB.
As seen on the chart, the exposure values required to produce incidence doses due to
percutaneous GB liquid and vapor exposure are significantly higher (approximately ten
times) than the incidence doses required to produce effects due to GB inhalation. This
difference – and the absence of measurable GB liquid exposures within VLSTRACK –
may have contributed to the AMedP-8 working group’s decision to neglect liquid
exposure to GB; no specific information, however, is provided as to why this decision
was made.
Figure K-2. Percutaneous Dose response for GB vapor and liquid exposure endpoints
B.
Construction of Exposure Ranges for VX
Establishing the exposure boundaries for VX could not be based on expected
symptomatology due to lack of research. The toxicity mechanism for VX
(acetylcholinesterase inhibition) is, however, the same as that resulting from GB
exposure. Therefore, the signs and symptoms are expected to be qualitatively the same.
In order to establish the VX ranges, VX incidence doses similar to those for GB were
used. The incidence exposure values due to inhalation of VX can be determined from
Figure K-3; the range boundaries selected for VX yield the same incidence as those
initially determined for GB. Table K-1 compares these values and shows the established
ranges and injury severity categories for GB and VX due to inhalation effects.
Figure K-3. Inhalation and Ocular Dose response for VX vapor exposure endpoints
Table K-1: Construction of exposure ranges for VX vapor inhalation injury categories based on
comparison with GB vapor inhalation categories. (McClellan, Anno, Matheson, 1998, pg. 9)
Injury
Category
GB Vapor Inhalation Exposure
(mg-min/m3)
Exposure
Boundary
Exposure
for Effect
0
1
VX Vapor Inhalation Exposure
(mg-min/m3)
Exposure
Boundary
0
No injury
0.25
2
No injury
0.05
ECt10 (ocular) = 0.33 Ect90
ECt90 (ocular) = 0.75
3
ECt10 (ocular) = 0.06
ECt90 (ocular) = 0.14
2
3
same ratio of exposure
boundaries as GB
6
4
4
same ratio of exposure
boundaries as GB
15
5
10
ECt10 (severe) = 23
30
6
ECt10 (severe) = 17
19
ECt50 (severe) = 35
LCt10 = 45
50
7
ECt50 (severe) = 25
LCt10 = 20
29
ECt90 (severe) = 54
LCt50 = 70
75
8
Exposure
for Effect
ECt90 (severe) = 37
LCt50 = 30
40
LCt90 = 107
LCt90 = 45
Due to the persistent nature of VX and the lower concentrations required for
percutaneous effects due to both liquid and vapor (shown in Figure K-4), VX
percutaneous doses were not discounted. In order to determine the dose ranges for
percutaneous exposure to VX, a similar table was generated to compare VX exposure
ranges resulting in inhalation effects and VX dose ranges resulting from percutaneous
liquid exposure. This comparison is shown on Table K-2. VX ocular effects are
considered separately from percutaneous effects, and thus, for the lower injury severity
category bounds, only similar ratios – as opposed to effects – are considered.
Figure K-4. Percutaneous Dose response for VX vapor and liquid exposure endpoints
Table K-2: Construction of exposure ranges for percutaneous liquid VX injury categories
based on comparison with VX vapor inhalation categories. (McClellan, Anno, Matheson,
1998, pg. 10)
VX Vapor Inhalation Exposure
(mg-min/m3)
Injury
Category
Exposure
Boundary
0
1
Exposure
for Effect
2
No injury
ECt10 (ocular) = 0.06
ECt90 (ocular) = 0.14
3
same ratio of exposure
boundaries
0.4
same ratio of exposure
boundaries as GB
4
4
same ratio of exposure
boundaries
0.8
same ratio of exposure
boundaries as GB
10
5
same ratio of exposure
boundaries
2
ECt10 (severe) = 17
19
6
ED10 (severe) = 2.8
4
ECt50 (severe) = 25
LCt10 = 20
29
7
Dose
for Effect
0.01
2
ED50 (severe) = 5
LD10 = 6
8
ECt90 (severe) = 37
LCt50 = 30
40
41
Dose41
Boundary
0
No injury
0.05
8
VX Liquid Percutaneous Exposure
(mg/70 kg man)
ED90 (severe) = 9
LD50 = 10
12
LCt90 = 107
LCt90 = 16
These dose boundaries are also applicable to deposition in mg/m2 under the assumption of an effective
exposed skin area of 1 m2/person.
APPENDIX L
PERFORMANCE FACTOR MEASURES
A.
Definitions and Variables
S/S
signs and symptoms
t0
the normative task performance time when in a normal healthy state
t
time required to perform the task when a state of illness prevails
(Note: t is always greater than t0)
qualitative performance, expressed by the ratio t0/t
p
B.
tijk
the estimated task time for the jth task provided by the ith respondent covering
the kth S/S complex
′
vector of estimated regression coefficients – provides the weighting
of the severity of each different physical system on performance
x′k
vector of integers describing the symptom severity of each different
physical system
P̂k
expected value of task performance (post application of a smoothing function)
P1
expected performance when all symptom severity category values are one –
individual is in good health (pre application of a smoothing function)
Pm
highest possible performance when a single symptom severity category
is greater than one
P
the difference between one and P1

performance smoothing function

correction factor applied to performance smoothing function equal to 0.01.
Agent Symptomatology
The first step in determining the impacts of chemical agent exposure on performance was
to classify the signs and symptoms (S/S) for each agent and determine, given some initial dose,
at what time which symptoms could be expected. S/S tables were generated for GB and HD.
For GB six systems were modeled – upper gastrointestinal, lower gastrointestinal, muscular,
ocular, respiratory, and mental; four systems were used for HD – skin, systemic, respiratory, and
ocular. The impact of each agent on the specified systems was categorized in terms of the
amount and type of resultant distress using five levels of severity, ranging from one (lowest) to
five (most severe). These symptomatology tables are shown below (Table L-1, GB, and Table
L-2, HD); a specific table was not created for VX. Because of the identical toxicity mechanisms
for GB and VX, the S/Ss could be expected to be qualitatively the same.
Using these symptomatology levels, a general time- and dose-relationship table was
established for both GB and HD, following the Defense Nuclear Agency/Intermediate Dose
Program (DNA/IDP) methodology1. These tables are shown as Figures L-1 and L-2. The order
of the digits in each of the blocks in Figures L-1 and L-2 corresponds to the order of the severity
categories as listed in the S/S tables.
Using agent ranges of interest, the S/S for GB and HD were used to estimate the impact
of these agents on performance of crewmembers performing close combat light (CCL) infantry
and artillery tasks. A questionnaire was generated, listing specific and general CCL tasks, along
with a set of symptoms corresponding to a particular S/S set.
The M119A Light Howitzer was selected as representative of CCL tasks, and subject
matter experts (SME) were surveyed, using the questionnaires, to determine how different
symptoms affected their ability to perform combat-related tasks. For the series of tasks and a set
of symptoms (as listed on the S/S tables), the SMEs were asked to evaluate how long the tasks
would take and their level of confidence in their own responses. The performance data gathered
from the questionnaires was averaged over the respondents, in order to prepare it for the
regression analysis.2
Of note, graphical and typographical inaccuracies were noted in the original DICE
sign/symptom severity data for HD. In addition, in 1997, further research was completed by Dr.
Millard M. Mershon on the ocular effects post-exposure to HD. These corrections and updates
were incorporated into the final algorithms and the final DICE calculation models. In
McClellan, et. al, these changes are included as four graphical representations of the
sign/symptom severity for each affected system. An updated sign/symptom complex chart
including these changes is included as Table L-3.
1
McClellan, Gene E. et al., 1998.
NOTE: Tables L-1 and L-2 and Figures L-1 and L-2 also from McClellan, et al.
2
Anno, G.H., D. B. Wilson, and M. A. Dore, 1984.
Table L-1. GB signs and symptoms
(Textual Descriptions for Questionnaires)
UG: Upper Gastrointestinal Distress
1
No effect
2
Burning feeling above the stomach
3
Nauseated, mouth waters, sweating
4
Vomited once or twice, nauseated and may vomit again
5
Vomited several times, including dry heaves
LG: Lower Gastrointestinal Distress
1
No effect
2
Abdominal pain
3
Abdominal cramps, with diarrhea once or twice
4
Frequent diarrhea, with awful gut cramps
5
Uncontrollable diarrhea and urination
MU: Muscular Distress
1
No effect
2
Muscles twitch, feeling somewhat tired and weak
3
Muscles tremble, uncoordinated, feeling tired and weak
4
Whole body trembles with sporadic convulsions
5
Paralyzed
OC: Ocular Distress
1
No effect
2
Vision is slightly blurred and dim
3
Vision is blurred and dim, and pressure is felt behind the eyes
4
Light hurts eyes, headache, with very blurred and dim vision
5
Extreme headache and temporary blindness
RE: Respiratory Distress
1
No effect
2
Tight chest, coughing, and runny nose
3
Difficult to breathe, wheezing breath, respiratory congestion
4
Breathing sporadically stops and starts, skin has a purple or blue color
5
Breathing stops completely
ME: Mental Distress
1
No effect
2
Anxious and irritable
3
Hard to remember or concentrate
4
Cannot remember or concentrate
5
Unconscious
Figure L-1. Sign/symptom complexes for wet skin exposure to GB (nerve gas – Sarin)
Table L-2. HD signs and symptoms
(Textual Descriptions for Questionnaires)
SK: Skin Damage
1
2
3
4
5
No effect
Skin sensitive to touch in crotch, armpits, and on inside of elbow and knee joints
Skin sore in crotch, armpits, elbow and knee joints, and painful when moving, red swollen
skin, tiny blisters on hands and neck
Skin raw and painful in crotch, armpits, elbow and knee joints, red swollen body skin,
large blisters on hands and neck
Skin peels off leaving open raw areas and painful blisters
SY: Systemic Damage
1
2
3
4
5
No effect
Nauseated and swallows often
Headache, nauseated, vomited once or twice
Headache and fever, vomited several times and will again
Pounding headache, dry heaves, fatigued from vomiting
RE: Respiratory Damage
1
2
3
4
5
No effect
Dry mouth, dry cough, sneezing, and runny nose
Sore throat, continuous coughing, hoarse voice, chest feels tight
Hurts to breathe, hacking cough, cannot speak
Awful check pain, wheezing and short of breath, coughs up red-colored mucus
OC: Ocular Damage
1
No effect
2
Eye sting and tear
3
Eyes feel gritty and sensitive to light, nonstop tears flood eyes
4
Eyelids puffy and eyes burn, painful to keep open
5
Eyelids swollen shut and burning eyes too painful to open
Figure L-2. Sign/symptom complexes for wet skin exposure to HD (mustard gas)
1
1112
10
1213
1214
1312
3333
3121
1121
2121
3343
3131
2111
Time (hr)
100
Figure L-3. Sign/symptom complexes for wet skin exposure to HD (mustard gas) –
updated to reflect DICE corrections and additional research
1121
1231
3323
2232
1232
3344
3122
3132
3345
3435
3525
3424
3414
2111 2121
3124
3235
3325
3225
2324
3324
2213
2112
2313
2312
1312
3335
100
3123
2122
2123
2112 2223
1113 2224
1213
1212
1211
1212
1112
1112
Dose (mg-min/m3)
1231
1131
1121
1131
1121
2232
1232
4343
1231
2232
1232
4343
5353
5354
4354
4353
5455
5355
5345
5445
5535
5525
5425
5424
5313
1312
4455
4355
4345
4445
3535
3525
3424
2323
2313
1312
1000
10
1000
100
C.
Performance Measures
The measure of performance for military combat tasks will be considered as a function of
time; although performance is usually a function of both time and accuracy, it was determined
that evaluating accuracy reductions as a result of chemical exposures was extremely difficult for
the SMEs. This was partially due to the tendency of SMEs to regards tasks as either “complete”
or “incomplete” without regard to the accuracy or delays that might result from attempts to
maintain accuracy. Thus, performance (p) can be regarded as the time ratio of normative task
performance time when in a healthy state (t0) to the time required to perform the task when in a
state of illness as described by a set of symptoms (t).
p = t0/t
When in good health then, p = 1, and if the task cannot be performed, p = 0.
In order to determine the average performance over N number of respondents, a new time
variable (tijk) was introduced – the time estimated for the jth task provided by the ith respondent
considering the kth S/S complex. Using this definition, the average performance for the jth task
given the kth S/S complex is:
1 N
Pjk   t 0 j / t ijk 
N i 1
D.
(0  Pjk  1)
Performance Function
Multivariate regression analyses were used to derive the task performance functions. A
logistic transformation was used to predict performance values and ensure that those values lie
within the expected interval (0 to 1). The primary assumption of the logistic model is that the
performance can be expressed as some function of a linear combination of the factor (symptom
severity) variables – there are six corresponding variables to describe each time/dose GB
relationship and four corresponding variables to describe the HD time/dose relationships.
Using the performance factor designated above – an averaged estimate of performance
for the jth task and the kth S/S complex – the logistic regression model may be represented by:
 Pjk 

n 
 1  P  x'k  + k , (1  k  K)
jk 

The x'k vector represents integers for denoting symptom severity level for the kth symptom
severity level and the lth symptom category. ' is a vector of regression coefficients that are
estimated. Both vector sets contain an additional component corresponding to the intercept.
Thus, there are seven coefficients for GB and five for HD.
The next step is to determine a means for predicting performance values for any S/S
complex, xk. Beginning with the equation above:
 Pjk 

n 
 1  P  x'k  + k , (1  k  K)
jk 

 Pjk

1 P
jk


  e x 'k   k  , (1  k  K)


1  Pjk  , (1  k  K)
 x 'k   k 
Pjk  e

 x 'k   k 
Pjk 1  e
 e
 x 'k   k 
 , (1  k  K)
 x ' k   k 
Pjk

 e 
1  e
x 'k   k 
 ,
(1  k  K)

Pjk  1 e  x' k    k 
1
, (1  k  K)
Finally, the inverse transformation of the logistic regression can be applied to yield the
performance function for predicting expected values of task performance for any S/S complex,
given as:
Pˆ
k


 1  x' k ̂
e

1
, (1  k  K)
The performance measure of a particular crewmember is based on a composite of two or more
separate tasks. The beta coefficients and statistical parameters resulting from the regression
analysis are compiled in Tables L-3 and L-4 for GB and HD respectively.
Table L-3. Performance regression summary for GB: No. 1 cannoneer (loader)
(from McClellan, et al.)
Degrees of freedom:
F(6, 23):
Prob > F:
R-square:
Adj R-square:
Root MSE:
Symptom
 Coefficient
Standard
Error
23
61.2900
<.0005
.9411
.9258
.24715
t
P > |t|
95% Confidence
Interval
Intercept
5.675684
.354942
15.990
<.0005
4.9414300
6.4099370
Upper Gastro
-.501250
.041804
-11.990
<.0005
-.5877290
-.4147716
Lower Gastro
-.626904
.062884
-9.969
<.0005
-.7569887
-.4968186
Muscular
-.978815
.065066
-15.043
<.0005
-1.1134140
-.8442152
Ocular
-.822573
.097043
-8.476
<.0005
-1.0233220
-.6218234
Respiratory
-.657991
.059124
-11.129
<.0005
-.7802975
-.5356843
Mental
-.556144
.067417
-8.249
<.0005
-.6956061
-.4166821
Table L-4. Performance regression summary for HD: No. 1 cannoneer (loader)
(from McClellan, et al.)
Degrees of freedom:
F(4, 25):
Prob > F:
R-square:
Adj R-square:
Root MSE:
Symptom
 Coefficient
Standard
Error
25
18.5200
<.00005
.7477
.7073
.71362
t
P > |t|
95% Confidence
Interval
Intercept
6.647001
.929549
7.151
<.0005
4.7325590
8.5614430
-1.425135
.166689
-8.550
<.0005
-1.7684380
1.0818330
Systemic
-.786148
.166325
-4.727
<.0005
-1.1287010
-.4435950
Respiratory
-.625109
.160978
-3.883
<.0005
-.9566491
-.2935684
Ocular
-.900659
.268601
-3.353
.003
-1.4538520
-.3474651
Skin Damage
E.
Performance-Based Casualty Calculations
Performance can be calculated utilizing the equations determined above, however,
performance when all of the sign/symptom severity factors are at their lowest – all equal one –
does not result in a P̂k =1. A smoothing factor is applied to force P̂k =1; this impacts only the
performance at the lowest sign/symptom severities (highest performance) while not affecting
lower performance values. The final equation for calculating performance is:
 *P1  Pˆk 
Pˆ 'k  Pˆk  P * e
,
(1  k  K)
  ( P1  Pm ) 1 * n(P /  ) and
where
P  1  P1
where P̂ ′k is the smoothed performance. The calculation and derivation of the variables used in
the performance function for GB and HD are included in their entirety as Tables L-5 and L-6
respectively.
Although time is not an explicit variable in the above equation, performance does change
with time as a function of the sign/symptom severities. In the hours, days, and weeks following
agent exposure, some signs/symptoms improve while others worsen (as shown in the
sign/symptom severity profiles), resulting in performance changes over time. Figure L-4 shows
how performance capabilities change over time for a loader for a set of several different initial
exposures between ten and one thousand mg-min/m3. Performance, therefore, needs to be
calculated at several different time periods to obtain a useful picture of decreased performance,
Physically Demanding Performance
casualties, fatalities, and returns to duty.
Loader, HD Vapor
100%
10
75%
15
25
Performance
50
70
100
50%
125
150
250
500
1000
125 Est
25%
100 Est
0%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
Time (hrs)
Figure L-4. Loader Performance Capability Changes over Time for
HD Vapor Exposures (in mg-min/m3)
Table L-5. Performance Function Calculation for GB
Smoothed Performance Function
Step 1:
Step 2:
Step 3:
Identify Constants and Equations
B0 =
5.675684 intercept
B1 =
-0.50125 upper GI
B2 =
-0.626904 lower GI
B3 =
-0.978815 muscular
B4 =
-0.822573 ocular
B5 =
-0.657991 respiratory
B6 =
-0.556144 mental
=
0.01 correction factor
Determine Pm, the highest possible performance when a single
sign/symptom severity category is greater than one
Pm =
Pk(1,2,1,1,1,1,1)
Pm =
(1 + exp(-x0*B0 + -x1*B1 + -x2*B2 + -x3*B3 + -x4*B4 + -x5*B5 + -x6*B6))^-1
x0
x1
x2
x3
x4
x5
x'k(1,2,1,1,1,1,1) =
1
2
1
1
1
1
x'k*B' =
5.675684
-1.0025 -0.626904 -0.978815 -0.822573 -0.657991
Pk(1,2,1,1,1,1,1) =
0.737063
x'k(1,1,2,1,1,1,1) =
1
1
2
1
1
1
x'k*B' =
5.675684 -0.50125 -1.253808 -0.978815 -0.822573 -0.657991
Pk(1,1,2,1,1,1,1) =
0.711997
x'k(1,1,1,2,1,1,1) =
1
1
1
2
1
1
x'k*B' =
5.675684 -0.50125 -0.626904 -1.95763 -0.822573 -0.657991
Pk(1,1,1,2,1,1,1) =
0.634876
x'k(1,1,1,1,2,1,1) =
1
1
1
1
2
1
x'k*B' =
5.675684 -0.50125 -0.626904 -0.978815 -1.645146 -0.657991
Pk(1,1,1,1,2,1,1) =
0.670276
x'k(1,1,1,1,1,2,1) =
1
1
1
1
1
2
x'k*B' =
5.675684 -0.50125 -0.626904 -0.978815 -0.822573 -1.315982
Pk(1,1,1,1,1,2,1) =
0.705581
x'k(1,1,1,1,1,1,2) =
1
1
1
1
1
1
x'k*B' =
5.675684 -0.50125 -0.626904 -0.978815 -0.822573 -0.657991
Pk(1,1,1,1,1,1,2) =
0.726287
Pk(1,2,1,1,1,1,1) =
0.737063
Calculate Smoothing Factor 
P =
1 - P1
0.1777


Step 5:
(1 + exp(-x'k*B))^-1
1 - P1
(P1 - Pm)^-1*ln(P/)
Pk + P*e(-*(P1-Pk))
Calculate Unsmoothed Performance at P1 = Pk(1,1,1,1,1)
P1 =
Pk(1,1,1,1,1,1,1)
P1 =
(1 + exp(-x0*B0 + -x1*B1 + -x2*B2 + -x3*B3 + -x4*B4 + -x5*B5 + -x6*B6))^-1
x0 =
1 x0*B0 =
5.675684
x1 =
1 x1*B1 =
-0.50125
x4 =
1 x4*B4 =
x2 =
1 x2*B2 =
-0.626904
x5 =
1 x5*B5 =
x3 =
1 x3*B3 =
-0.978815
x6 =
1 x6*B6 =
P1 =
0.8223
Pm =
Step 4:
Pk =
P =

P'k =
(P1 - Pm)^-1*ln(P/)
15.35296
Calculate P'k, Smoothed Performance
Pk + P*e(-*(P1-Pk))
P'k =
P'k(1,1,1,1,1,1,1)=
1
-0.822573
-0.657991
-0.556144
x6
1
-0.556144
1
-0.556144
1
-0.556144
1
-0.556144
1
-0.556144
2
-1.112288
Table L-6. Performance Function Calculation for HD
Smoothed Performance Function
Step 1:
Identify Constants and Equations
B0 =
6.647001 intercept
B1 =
-1.425135 skin
B2 =
-0.786148 systemic
B3 =
-0.625109 respiratory
B4 =
-0.900659 ocular
=
0.01 correction factor
Pk =
P =

P'k =
(1 + exp(-x'k*B))^-1
1 - P1
(P1 - Pm)^-1*ln(P/)
Pk + P*e(-*(P1-Pk))
Step 2:
Calculate Unsmoothed Performance at P1 = Pk(1,1,1,1,1)
P1 =
Pk(1,1,1,1,1)
P1 =
(1 + exp(-x0*B0 + -x1*B1 + -x2*B2 + -x3*B3 + -x4*B4))^-1
x0 =
1 x0*B0 =
6.647001
x1 =
1 x1*B1 =
-1.425135
x2 =
1 x2*B2 =
-0.786148
x3 =
1 x3*B3 =
-0.625109
x4 =
1 x4*B4 =
-0.900659
P1 =
0.948336
Step 3:
Determine Pm, the highest possible performance when a single
sign/symptom severity category is greater than one
Pm =
Pk(1,1,1,2,1)
Pm =
(1 + exp(-x0*B0 + -x1*B1 + -x2*B2 + -x3*B3 + -x4*B4))^-1
x0
x1
x2
x3
x4
x'k(1,2,1,1,1) =
1
2
1
1
1
x'k*B' =
6.647001 -2.85027 -0.786148 -0.625109 -0.900659
Pk(1,2,1,1,1) =
0.815299
x'k(1,1,2,1,1) =
1
1
2
1
1
x'k*B' =
6.647001 -1.425135 -1.572296 -0.625109 -0.900659
Pk(1,1,2,1,1) =
0.893195
x'k(1,1,1,2,1) =
1
1
1
2
1
x'k*B' =
6.647001 -1.425135 -0.786148 -1.250218 -0.900659
Pk(1,1,1,2,1) =
0.907614
x'k(1,1,1,1,2) =
1
1
1
1
2
x'k*B' =
6.647001 -1.425135 -0.786148 -0.625109 -1.801318
Pk(1,1,1,1,2) =
0.881769
Pm =
Step 4:
0.907614
Calculate Smoothing Factor 
P =
1 - P1
0.051664


Step 5:
Pk(1,1,1,2,1) =
(P1 - Pm)^-1*ln(P/)
40.32611
Calculate P'k, Smoothed Performance
Pk + P*e(-*(P1-Pk))
P'k =
P'k(1,1,1,1,1) =
1
F.
AMedP-8 Chemical Table Generation
There are two types of categories for exposed personnel, as represented by the tables in
Sections 4 through 10 of the AMedP-8 Chemical Manual; one presents typical injuries sustained
by personnel exposed to various chemical exposure levels, while the other indicates post-attack
performance capability.
A person becomes a casualty when their performance decreases to 25% or lower. An
injury category is assigned when the person becomes a casualty. For GB and VX, the typical
injuries by category are determined by taking the initial effective exposure and entering it into
the Injury Severity Category tables (shown in Section Four).
For HD, determining the injury category is a two step process. First, when the individual
becomes a casualty, they are classified as some combination of injury severity categories – i.e.,
Eye-Respiratory-Skin, Eye-Skin, or Respiratory only – on the basis of their sign/symptom
severity in each category. An eye or skin injury category is assigned when the associated
sign/symptom severity category is greater than or equal to two. A respiratory injury category is
assigned when either the respiratory or systemic sign/symptom severities are greater than or
equal to two. Once assigned, the individual remains in the prescribed injury severity category
until they become a fatality (performance decreases to less than .0001 for GB and VX, .000023
for HD) or return to duty (performance increases to greater than 75%). Additionally, in the
Personnel by Injury Category Table, individuals are assigned a numerical injury category. This
category is determined by using the vapor (for ocular and respiratory/systemic) and effective (for
skin) exposures and determining the applicable injury severity number for each system. Thus,
for example, an individual with a vapor exposure of 25 mg-min/m3 and an effective exposure of
90 mg-min/m3, will have a final injury severity code of 2-1-2.
It may be important to note that although injury severity category six is the highest
category given for eye effects due to HD exposure, category five is the highest category assigned
in the tables given in Appendices 4-10 of AMED P-8 Chemical. Calculations to produce
appendices A-F for this document indicate that approximately fifty attacks resulted in ocular HD
injury severity category six.
To determine performance bands, casualty status, and fatalities, the performance equation
described above was used. For all three agents – GB, VX, and HD – performance was calculated
at ten different time periods – 3 hours, 1-7 days, 15 days, and 30 days. If at any time during
those periods performance dropped to 25% or lower, the individual became a casualty and a
casualty flag was assigned; similarly, if performance dropped below the prescribed fatality
threshold, the individual became a fatality.
One additional note is important. When calculating performance on the edges of the
injury category ranges (exposures of 25, 50, 70, 100, etc. measured in mg-min/m3), the
sign/symptom severity for both the upper and lower category were averaged to determine the
sign/symptom severity at that time period. For example, at three hours, the sign/symptom
severity for range 50-70mg-min/m3 is 1 and the sign/symptom severity range for 70-100 mgmin/m3 is 2, therefore, when modeled during the generation of AMedP-8 Chemical, the two
sign/symptom severities were averaged and a severity of 1.5 was used to determine performance
at three hours for 70 mg-min/m3.
APPENDIX M
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(Nuclear), AMedP-8(A), Volume I
STANAG 2476 NBC/MED, Planning Guide for the Estimation of NBC Battle Casualties
(Biological), AMedP-8(A), Volume II
STANAG 2477 NBC/MED, Planning Guide for the Estimation of NBC Battle Casualties
(Chemical), AMedP-8(A), Volume III