July 14 Update
As we approach our usual late-July starting date of significant fire activity, we have
several things in out favor.
1) The severity indexes that we look at are all in very good shape for this date.
PSA Obs Avg Significant Obs
Avg Significant Obs
Avg Significant
ERC
FireYear
FM100
Fire Year FM1000
Fire Year
C1
47
56
(94) 61
11
9
(94) 7
13
12
(94) 12
2
50
60
(96) 67
11
9
(96) 6
13
12
(96) 11
3
50
57
(01) 59
11
9
(01) 7
14
12
(01) 11
E1
50
54
(94) 68
10
9
(94) 8
14
13
(94) 10
2
36
46
(03) 66
13
9
(03) 6
18
15
(03) 11
3
66
69
(96) 66
9
7
(96) 7
10
9
(96) 10
4
44
56
(96) 60
12
8
(96) 6
15
13
(96) 12
5
55
71
(96) 73
9
6
(96) 5
13
9
(96) 10
W1 4
18
(03) 18
23
16
(03)17
31
23
(03) 21
2
10
18
(98) 7
20
15
(98)17
26
24
(98) 35
3
14
28
(02) 35
18
14
(02)12
25
20
(02) 17
4
27
41
(02) 53
16
11
(02) 9
20
15
(02) 13
C3 – Columbia Basin – is the only area showing even seasonal numbers across the board.
This has been the location of our large fires thus far this season.
2) The short and medium range forecasts continue to show the pattern of westerly flow
that has kept the 4 Corners High from building up over our area for any extended drying.
Latest medium range forecast thru 7/23 shows recurring troughs with cooler Westside
temps and decent RH over the entire area.
3) Live fuels continue to show positive departure from average. This, plus good 1000 hr
FM, means slow spreading fires with little high intensity combustion from large fuels – a
good recipe for successful IA.
Caveat. A week of intense heating followed by the breakdown of the ridge, with
accompanying dry t-storms, could still give us several hundred new fires in 3 or 4 days.
If you figure that 2-3% escape IA that still leaves us with as many as 9 large fires –
maybe the fire season.