Holon Academic Institute of Technology א ק ד מ י מ כ ו ן )ט כ נ ו ל ו ג י ח ו לו ן (ע " ר DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCES מחלקה למדעי המחשב DEVELOPMENT OF COMPUTER INTEGRATED MANUFACTURING SYSTEMS (CIM) #60702 Semester Bet, 2005 Lecturer: Prof. Eugene Levner LECTURE 1 Part 3. Example of the Semestral Project. Computer-aided design and analysis of artificial reefs in the Eilat Gulf. The following chapters are recommended: CHAPTER EVALUATION Part 1 General Description of the Project 20 % 1. General features of modern AR in Israel in the world 2. Basic requirements to AR in Eilat Gulf (defense, water cleaning, research, seabeach protection, coral reef protection, etc.) and characteristics. 3. Full informal description of the problem 5% 4. Survey of relevant literature or Internet sources (abstracts of at least 2 sources) Part 2. Formal Modeling and Algorithms 5% 1. Formal description of the design problem as a multi-criteria mathematical programming problem (variables plus constraints plus criteria) and attributeranking problem 2. Description of a multi-criteria MP algorithm and attribute-ranking Borda algorithm 3. Choosing and description of the chosen softeware (LINDO, STORM, GAMS, etc.) 4. Computer programming (in addition to using GAMS, Storm, etc.) Part 3.. Practical Computations 1. Collection of real data and maps 2. Experimental computing and statistics 3.Comparison of several variants of reef structures and locations 4. Results and conclusions 5. Defense of the project Total 03-502-6733 5% 5% Maximum 30% Maximum 10% Maximum 10% Maximum 10% Maximum 10 % 50% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 20+30+50+5 (bonus) =105 nikudot :' פקס,03-502-6731 :' טל,58102 חולון,305 ת"ד,52 רח' גולומב 52 Golomb St., Holon 58102 Israel. Tel: 972-3-502-6731, fax: 972-3-502-6733 http://www. cteh.ac.ll Abstract This project is devoted to the computer-aided analysis and the design of a structure of multifunctional artificial marine structures (AMSs) including artificial reefs (ARs). Any form of the AMS construction will have ecological, technological and economic risks associated. What is of a special interest for this project, is the fact that the AMS may affect the associated risks in two opposite directions: on the one hand, they decrease certain risk types and, at the same time, they may increase some other associated risks. The project defines the spectrum of potential risks and the range of corresponding advantages and disadvantages owned by the AMS. We consider the computer model of a risk-minimization CAD in terms of multi-criteria decision trees and multi-criteria linear programming permitting to find the optimal structure of the AMS. הערכת סיכוים סביבתיים ואופטימיזציה של מבנים ימים מלאכותיים רב ברירתיים אקולוגים מנוגדים אשר מופיעים-( סוציאוeffects) חלק זה של פרויקט מוקדש ללימוד של אפקטים כל צורה של.בעיצוב ויצור של מערכות ימיות מלאכותיות )ממ”י ( הכוללות בתוכם שוניות מלאכותיות מה שמושך את תשומת ליבנו בפרויקט הזה. טכנולוגים וכלכליים,ממ”י מלוווה בסיכונים אקולוגים הינה עובדה שממ”י יכולים לגרום מצד אחד לגידול סיכונים מסויימים ומצד שני להביא לצימצום של .סיכונים אחרים .אנו מגדרים את הרשימה של סיכונים אפשריים וגם רשימת יתרונות וחסרונות הרלוונטים בסוף הפרק הזה בונים מודל מתמטי לבעית צימצום סיכון בעזרת כלים תכנות ליניארי רב קריטריוני ( המאפשר למצוא מבנים אופטימליים של מערכות ימיותmulti-criteria linear program) .מלאכותיות 1. Introduction The potential use of artificial reefs (AR) as a tool in coastal management is well described in the literature (see, e.g., [1-12], and numerous references therein). Among many perspective directions of potential use of the ARs, and, more generally, of Artificial Marine Structures (AMS), we may synthesize the main ones, as follows: ecosystem protection and maintenance of biodiversity [1-3], coastal zone protection, including protection of beach and historical sites [4,5], human health care, including monitoring sea water quality and creating better conditions for tourism and recreational diving, enhancement of fishing yields, and improvement of biological and environmental research and education. According to [9], the main reasons for creating marine protecting areas and AMS are: marine environment protection (93% of research papers are devoted to this aspect), biodiversity maintenance and tourism promotion (67% of papers), and fisheries maintenance (53%); research and education are secondary objectives. In the USA, hundreds of public artificial reefs are now constructed annually, using a combination of Federal, State, local government and private funds. For the year 2000-2001 an estimated US$700,000 was spent on artificial reef construction in Florida only. Since 1996, the project component of the state reef programme has been level funded with US$300,000 in Federal Aid and US$300,000 in Saltwater Fishing License revenues. A 1992 study of a single artificial reef in Lorain County, Ohio (on Lake Erie) estimated the economic value generated by the reef during that year to be US$275,000 [5, 11]. Holon Academic Institute of Technology א ק ד מ י מ כ ו ן )ט כ נ ו ל ו ג י ח ו לו ן (ע " ר DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCES מחלקה למדעי המחשב Over 50% of artificial reef programmes worldwide, however, have failed due to poor site selection, inadequate planning, a lack of monitoring, or because no proper management was put in place according to a set of suitability criteria (salinity, currents, depth), on the basis of biological, socio-ecological and hydrodynamic modeling [1, 3, 5]. This part of the project is devoted to the study of social and ecological contradicting effects related to the design, construction, and maintenance of multi-functional AMSs and ARs. The main attention is given to the comparison and analysis of contradicting positive and negative effects related to the operation of AMSs in exploited marine ecosystems and finding optimal decisions related to the location, size, structure, maintenance and operation of artificial reefs aimed to minimize the evolved environmental risks and maximize the advantages of AMSs for the regional mariculture and the environment. 2. Integrated Management of AMS and Risks Any form of the AMS construction will have ecological, technical and economic risks associated [2-5, 11]. What is of a special interest for our research, the AMS may affect the associated risks in two opposite directions: they decrease some risk types and, at the same time, they may increase some other associated risks. In what follows, we define the spectrum of potential risks and the problems experienced by the regional mariculture and economics. Specifically, the risks which have greatest impact on human health, the biodiversity and the environment will be focused upon. Namely, five main classes of risks related to the AMSs will be studied: 1. Risk of the loss in biodiversity, the loss of habitat and associated species; 2. Risk (danger) of beach erosion and destroying the eco-equilibrium. 3. Risk (danger) for the human health, including aspects related to water quality, recreational diving and tourism; 4. Risk for fisheries yield, and, the last but not least, 5. Risks related to the decrease in the quality of environmental research and education. On the one hand, invariably, there will be a loss of habitat and associated species as well as a disturbance to an equilibrium in an ecosystem when a large-size AMS is placed on to the seabed, and so we can observe the negative aspect of the ARstructure. However, many species will adapt and take advantage of opportunities available, the environmental factors will influence the type of species that can live in the new environment and therefore the habitat may alter, thus leading to a new ecological equilibrium. A similar ambiguous situation is with the risk related to beach erosion and the equilibrium of the marine ecosystem. On the one hand, for AR, an associated technical risk representing its (un)safety and technical unreliability is to be estimated; moreover, the unpredictable nature of the marine environment is to be taken into account in these estimations. Mistakes, inaccuracy and ignorance in the technical risk estimations can lead to the construction failures; as a consequence, disastrous AMS construction projects of the past, unfortunately, can be named [1, 5]. On the other hand, the AMS can considerably mitigate the risk of beach erosion and promote a (new) equilibrium of a marine ecosystem. The project will produce an 03-502-6733 :' פקס,03-502-6731 :' טל,58102 חולון,305 ת"ד,52 רח' גולומב 52 Golomb St., Holon 58102 Israel. Tel: 972-3-502-6731, fax: 972-3-502-6733 http://www. cteh.ac.ll accurate risk estimate in order to identify those positive protective functions of the AMSs and to find their optimal effectiveness. The same kind of arguments is related to the risk for the human health: on the one hand, an artificial reefs may increase the carrying capability of the marine ecosystem and, thus, improve the sea water quality water but, on the other hand, the risk of water and fish contamination by toxic materials of which AMSs are done should be taken into account. In this case, again, the trade-off between the positive and negative factors for the human health is to be accurately estimated by using modern econometric and computer tools. Advantages and drawbacks of the AMS related to fishery and mariculture production are evident and fully recorded in the literature (see [1-6], among many others). Our main assumption, which we intend to test and verify, is that the positive role of the AMSs can be more significant, both from the biological, ecological and social points of view, than the negative one. Moreover, the AR structures can be designed to optimise the fishery capabilities, to increase the carrying capability of the marine ecosystem, to decrease sea water pollution and to promote sustainable development of regional fishery industry and beach economy (tourism, surfing, etc). A main objective of the research done in this part of the project is the design and use of new mathematical and computer models providing optimal engineering and ecological performance of MARs. Our study will focus on the development and analytical comparison of two possible mathematical techniques: Multi-criteria mathematical (deterministic and stochastic) programming [13]; Decision trees, and Fuzzy and interval-valued analysis and optimization [14, 15]. It is thought that the following main parameters are worth considering during this stage of the project: Location - mimic the biological, geographical and economic environment the MARs will be placed in; Length and size of artificial reefs; Materials and structure of artificial reefs, minimizing the toxic effects; Consider the needs of the organisms; Consult local organisations, residents and authorities in respect with the aesthetics requirements. Particular interest is being paid to finding optimal decisions (locations, sizes, structures of the AMSs) that could benefit the economical and social life of the region, including: feeding commercially important species, such as crabs, lobsters and fish; decreasing sea water pollution; monitoring and control of beach erosion; decreasing risks for the human health related to water and beach pollution. The following advantages of artificial reefs leading to possible mitigation of environmental risk will be taken into account in the proposed econometric and computer models (the list will be extended and detalized at the second stage of the project): (a) HABITAT PROVISION small fish shell fish marine vegetation lobsters, olsters, etc. Holon Academic Institute of Technology א ק ד מ י מ כ ו ן )ט כ נ ו ל ו ג י ח ו לו ן (ע " ר DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCES מחלקה למדעי המחשב (b) COASTAL PROTECTION dissipate wave energy reduce beach sand losses create wider beach salient increased protection of sea wall in stormy weather protect pier from wave energy . (c ) ECONOMICS BENEFITS benefits for fishery and aquaculture tourism attraction attract more visitors to the area (divers, surfers, etc.) (d) SOCIAL AND POLITICAL BENEFITS benefits for the human health sport and recreation benefits, especially for young people international cooperation, in particular in the Eilat-Aqaba Marine Park ARs open new doors within the regional coastal zone management and promote a healthier, more sustainable environment. To summarize, this part of the project is to aimed to justify, by using computer simulation and theoreic econometric models, that the multi-functional artificial reefs represent a new phase in sustainable technology, by offering a solution to the problems of coastal defence, whilst providing benefit to local economies through amenity and habitat enhancement. 2.1. Integrated Management of AMS: Main Definitions Following the definitions for integrated management of marine ecosystems given in [13, 17], we choose the following, perhaps somewhat utopian, vision of the objectives of integrated management of artificial marine structures and, in particular, artificial reefs: To identify all AMS user groups and to carefully analyze socio-economic, political, organizational and other interactions and inter-links between them. coastal, marine and terrestrial activitiescoordinate competing interests of all AMS users: all user groups must be identified by and to efficiently design allocate water resources through thorough coordination of social values, and environmental costs, factors and benefits. To coordinate and resolve conflicts among the AMS user groups by including all units of government, agencies and AMS stakeholders in the decision-making process. To promote ecosystem conservation and biodiversity maintenance. To enhance good sea water quality according to national and international standards. To foster public health and safety. To mitigate the environmental risks caused by AMS misuse and water pollution. 03-502-6733 :' פקס,03-502-6731 :' טל,58102 חולון,305 ת"ד,52 רח' גולומב 52 Golomb St., Holon 58102 Israel. Tel: 972-3-502-6731, fax: 972-3-502-6733 http://www. cteh.ac.ll There are many definitions of environmental risk [13, 17]. Speaking informally, the environmental risk is a quantitative measurement of ecological hazards with their economic, social and related consequences being taken into account. Following the U.S. EPA definition of ecological risk assessment [17], we define environmental risk assessment as a quantitative appraisal of the actual or potential impact on humans, animals, plants and technological infrastructures of contaminants from a hazard. Before the risk assessment is explained formally and in more detail, let us define the terms hazard and risk – how we understand them in the present work. Hazard is the potential for harm. For example, one type of the hazard is defined by the fact that the sea waters may be polluted by an AMS materials; a hazard here is the danger for human health. Other possible types of hazards are enlisted below: Danger for small fish, Danger for shell fish, Danger for marine vegetation, Danger for lobsters, olsters, etc., Danger to coral reefs and other natural resources, Danger of beach sand losses, Danger of beach erosion and beach pollution, Danger of sea waves and stormy weather, Danger for fishery and mariculture industries, Danger for the tourism industry, Danger for divers, surfers and other beach visitors, etc. Ecological risk is the likelihood of harm occurring in an ecosystem and the severity of its outcome. There are many ways in which the evaluation of risks can be carried out [13]. These range from the numerically complicated systems to a qualitative expert judgment of risk, that is, {low, medium or high}. Most of the formal ways define risk R as the product of the weight w of a hazard (also called a risk factor) and amount of damage, Q caused by the hazard, in a monetary, or material, or grade form: R = wQ. A risk factor (also called a risk weight, or a risk factor number) is the product of the likelihood (probability) and severity of harm arising from a hazard. A likelihood rating is based on the qualitative scale shown below. 1. Not likely. There is really no likelihood of an accident or pollution occurring. Only under freak conditions could there be a possibility of an accident or illness. All reasonable precautions have been taken so far as is reasonably practicable. This should be the normal state of the water source. 2. Possible. If other factors were present, a pollution or illness might occur, but the probability is low and the risk is minimal. 3. Quite possible. The accident or pollution may happen if additional factors precipitate it, but it unlikely to happen without them. 4. Likely. 5. Very likely. If the situation continues as it is, there is almost a 100% certainty that an accident or pollution will happen at least once. Now let us establish a severity rating for the identified hazards using the following scale: 1. Nil. No risk of injury, or contamination, or disease 2. Slight. Causing minor injury or harm. 3. Moderate. Causing moderate injury, or harm, or disease. 4. High. Causing death or serious injury to an individual. 5. Very high. Causing multiple deaths and/or widespread illnesses to population. Holon Academic Institute of Technology א ק ד מ י מ כ ו ן )ט כ נ ו ל ו ג י ח ו לו ן (ע " ר DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCES מחלקה למדעי המחשב A risk factor number is obtained by multiplying the likelihood rating by the severity rating. A number between 1 and 25 would result. Such a rating enables the most serious risks to be considered first, i.e. the higher the number the higher the risk. We will classify the risk factor number as follows: 16 – 25 Extreme Risk level unacceptable. 10 – 16 High Undesirable. 7 – 10 Medium May be acceptable. 1–6 Low May be acceptable. In our example considered above, stressors, may be presented as the risk to human health caused by several toxic R = wW = j=1,…,L wj(Wj)Wj, where: L : the number of stressors, fons et origo of water pollution; wj = wj(Wj): the risk factor number for the jth stressor; Wj : the amount of the harm caused by the jth stressor. 3. Mathematical Model This section outlines the mathematical form of a risk minimization model in terms of multi-criteria mathematical programming problem. (For the sake of simplicity of the presentation, the costs are not considered and real-life data are absent). Notation Risk classes and subclasses. Five risk classes: BD: Risk of the loss in biodiversity, the loss of habitat and associated species; BE: Risk (danger) of beach erosion and destroying the eco-equilibrium. HH: Risk (danger) for the human health, including aspects related to water quality, recreational diving and tourism; FY: Risk for fisheries yield, and, the last but not least, EE: Risks related to the decrease in the quality of environmental research and education. Twelve risk subclasses. SmF: Risk to diversity and long-term viability for small fish, ShF: Risk for shell fish, MF: Risk for marine vegetation, LO: Risk for lobsters, olsters, etc., CR: Risk for coral reefs, NR: Risk for other natural resources, BS: Risk of beach sand losses, EP: Risk of beach erosion and beach pollution, SW: Risk of sea waves and stormy weather, 03-502-6733 :' פקס,03-502-6731 :' טל,58102 חולון,305 ת"ד,52 רח' גולומב 52 Golomb St., Holon 58102 Israel. Tel: 972-3-502-6731, fax: 972-3-502-6733 http://www. cteh.ac.ll FM: Risk for fishery and mariculture industries, TI: Risk for the tourism industry, BV: Risk for divers, surfers and other beach visitors. Indices i = risk subclasses, i = 1,… , I =12. j = stressor, j = 1,…, J. k = option of location of a AMS, k= 1,… , K. s = option of length and size of a AMS, s =1, …, S. m = option of material and structure of a AMS, s =1, …, M. n = a variant of an AMS chosen n ( k × s × m ) , n = 1, …, N =K×S×M. Variables Lij Location variable: Lij =1, if the jth option of location is chosen, and Lij =0, otherwise. Sij Size variable: Sij =1, if the jth option of length and size is chosen, and Sij =0, otherwise. Mij Material variable: Mij =1, if the jth option of material and structure is chosen, and Sij =0, otherwise. xij selection variable: xij =1, if the dth variant of an AMS is chosen, and xij =0, otherwise. Parameters ADdj : Amount of stressor j imposed by the dth variant of an AMS chosen. ABdj : Amount of benefit b imposed by the dth variant of an AMS chosen. MWdj : Maximum allowed amount of stressor j, Bi : Maximum available amount of resource r used for establishing an AMS. Qf: Total quantity of beneficial properties obtained as a result of establishing an AMS. Constraints The first group of constraints state that the total amount of biological, social and ecological benefits expected as a result of establishing an AMS must satisfy the corresponding demand: (1) Bdj = i=1,…, I ABdj xijd = BDdj, for all d, f and j. The second set of constraints state that the total amount of hazards originating from the establishing of an AMS should not exceed the maximum allowed norm: (2) Hdj = i=1,…, I ADdj xijd ≤ MWdj, for all d, f and j. The third set of constraints state the bounds on the material, financial, human and othr resources required for the establishment of an AMS: (3) j=1,…, 5d=1,…, D QFijd xijd ≤ Bi, for all i . The fourth set bound to the total amount of most dangerous subclasses of risks: (4) i=1,…, I d=1,…, D QFijd ≤ Rj, for all j . Multiple Criteria Rj = d=1,…,D wd QWdj (j=1,…, J): Ecological risk of the jth subclass defined above. Problem Formulation Holon Academic Institute of Technology א ק ד מ י מ כ ו ן )ט כ נ ו ל ו ג י ח ו לו ן (ע " ר DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCES מחלקה למדעי המחשב MINIMIZE Rj = d=1,…,D wdQWdj (j = 1,…, 5): subject to constraints (1)-(4) above. For solving that multiple-criteria optimization problem, we proceed with a standard minmax approach [14], according to which we find a solution providing the minimum value to MAX (Rj│ j=1,…, J) subject to constraints (1)-(4). Thus, we reduced a multi-criteria problem to a standard single-criterion integer programming problem. 3. Conclusion and Directions for Further Research A multi-criteria decision-making approach is developed that opens up fresh opportunities for minimizing ecological risks and coordinating technological, economic, social and ecological contradictory demands of different users of artificial marine structures. The suggested mathematical model and interactive computer-aided solution procedure directs conflicting interests to a compromise and cooperative utilization of available resources. The choice of weights for different risk classes and priorities of participating players as well as extensive practical computational experiments on real-life data are to be done at the next stage of the project. Bibliography 1. Jensen A et al. 1998 European Artificial Reef Research Network (EARRN): Final Report and Recommendations. Published by the University of Southampton, June 1998. 2. Benayahu, Y. (1985) Faunistic composition and patterns in the distribution of soft corals (Octocorallia Alconacea) along the coral reefs of Sinai Peninsula. Proc 5 th Int Coral Reef Symp 6: 255-260 3. Benayahu, Y., & Loya, Y. (1987) Long-term recruitment of soft corals (Octocorallia: Alcyonacea) on artificial substrata at Eilat (Red Sea). Mar Ecol Prog Ser 38: 161-167 4. Szedlmayer, S., 1994 Artificial reefs design, planning and permitting. Aubern University Marine Extension & Research Centre. 5. Baine, M. (2001) Artificial reefs: a review of their design, application, management and performance. Ocean and Coastal Management 44: 241-259 6. Claudet, J., and D. Pelletier, 2004, Marine protected areas and artificial reefs: A review of the interactions between management and scientific studies, Aquatic Living Resources, 17, 129-138. 7 Clark, S. & Edwards, A.J., 1994. Use of artificial reef structures to rehabilitate reef flats degraded by coral mining in the Maldives. Bulletin of Marine science 55 (2-3), 724-744 , 1994. 8. Nautilus Consultants Ltd., 2003, Artificial Reefs in Scotland: Benefits, Costs and Risks, Technical Report, March 2003, Edinburgh, Scotland. (Also available at http://www.nautilus-consultants.co.uk/pdfs/Nautilus%20artificial%20reefs%20 report.pdf) 9. Whitmarsh, D, Pickering, H., 1997 Commercial exploitation of artificial reefs: economic opportunities and management imperatives. CEMARE Report. 10. Love M.S., M. Nishimoto, and D. Schroeder, 2001, The ecological role of natural reefs and oil and gas production platforms on fishes in Southern California, US Geological 03-502-6733 :' פקס,03-502-6731 :' טל,58102 חולון,305 ת"ד,52 רח' גולומב 52 Golomb St., Holon 58102 Israel. Tel: 972-3-502-6731, fax: 972-3-502-6733 http://www. cteh.ac.ll Survey, OCS Study, MMS www.id.ucsb.edu:16080/lovelab/Report.html) 2001-028 (see also 11. Bell, M. 2002 Marine Artificial Reefs. South Carolina Office of Fisheries Management, Technical Report. 12. Boersma P., J.K. Parrish, 1999. Limiting abuse: Marine protecting areas, a limited solution. Ecol. Econ., 31, 287-404 13, Levner, E., and J.-M. Proth, 2003, Strategic Risk Management of Marine Ecosystems. A mini-course of lectures presented at the NATO Advanced Study Institute meeting “Strategic Management of Marine Ecossystems”, October 1-10, 2003, Nice, France (to be published by Kluwer Academic Publishers). 14. Levner E., et al., , 1993, Modern Mathematical Methods of Optimization, Akademie Verlag, Berlin, 416 pp. 15. Levner E., A. Ptuskin and A. Friedman, 1998. Fuzzy Sets and Systems: Theory and Applications, Foreword by L. Zadeh, Russian Academy of Sciences CEMI Press, Moscow, 110 pp. (in Russian). 16. Marusich, L.J., 2001. The application of fuzzy logic analysis to assessing the significance of environmental impacts: Case Studies from Mexico and Canada, Research and Development Monograph Series, Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency, Hull, Quebec, Canada, ISBN 0-662-34457. 17. USA EPA, Ecological Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund, USA Environmental Protection Agency, PA, 1991. 1 )' מ10 מצוף (עומק צפיםAMS )' מ12 (עומק AMS אריחי קרמיקה צמודי )' מ20 קרקעית (עומק צמוד קרקעיתAMS )' מ20 (עומק ' מ15 מרוחקים עד מהמתקן מ כ ו ן א ק ד מ י Holon Academic Institute of Technology ט כ נ ו ל ו ג י ח ו לו ן (ע " ר) מחלקה למדעי המחשב 2 DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCES AMSצמוד קרקעית (עומק 20מ') מנשאים לאריחי קרמיקה 100X20ס"מ אריחי קרמיקה 20X20ס"מ צינורות פוליאטילן בקוטר 25ס"מ בטון יצוק- דופן 15ס"מ 130ס"מ משקל משוער 2.5 -טון 120ס"מ דחיית מים 850 -ק"ג 130ס"מ AMSצפים (עומק 12מ') רח' גולומב ,52ת"ד ,305חולון ,58102טל' ,03-502-6731 :פקס': 03-502-6733 52 Golomb St., Holon 58102 Israel. Tel: 972-3-502-6731, fax: 972-3-502-6733 http://www. cteh.ac.ll Example of an artificial reef