Economics 215 Intermediate Macroeconomics Homework Assignment 3 Assigned: Monday, April 23 2001 Due: Thursday, May 4, 2001 1. Permanent Income and Consumption Consider three households each of which will live for two periods. These households each begin with zero wealth, but will earn a certain amount of income in terms of goods in each period. The following table lists the income earned by households in each period Income in Period 1 Income in Period 2 Household #1 150 220 Household #2 200 220 Household #3 250 220 Assume all households can borrow and lend at a goods interest rate of 10% (1+r = 1.10). Solve for the permanent income level for each household. Assuming that each household consumes permanent income in period 1, what is the period 1 saving level for each household? Now, solve for permanent income and period 1 saving for each household under an interest rate of 15% (1+r = 1.15). Why does household 3, which had positive saving under the original interest rate, have a lower saving level under the higher interest rate? Why does household 2, which had negative saving under the original interest rate, have a higher saving level under the higher interest rate? The formula for permanent income of a consumer is C Q Q C 1 r Q1 2 C [Q1 2 ] . The formula for savings would then 1 r 1 r 2r 1 r be S = Q1 – C. Calculating this for each household under each interest rate C r = .1 r = .15 Household #1 C = 183.33 S = -33.33 C = 182.56 S = -32.56 Household #2 C = 209.52 S = -9.52 C = 209.30 S = -9.30 Household #3 C = 235.71 S = 14.29 C = 236.05 S = 13.95 The rise in the interest rate reduces the lifetime income of the borrowing household – they have to pay higher interest rates. Thus, the rise in interest rates from r = .1 to r = .15 reduces their consumption in both periods, while increasing initial savings. The rise in the interest rate has an opposite effect on the saving household. For them, the rise in interest rates is an increase in income. They increase consumption in both periods and reduce savings. 2. World Interest Rate and the Current Account Imagine the world financial market is made up of 2 large economies and one small economy. Each economy has a downward sloping investment schedule (in the interest rate) and an upward sloping saving schedule. The first large economy, Europe, has an investment and saving schedule SEU = 14500 + 10000r IEU = 15500 – 20000r The second large economy, Japan, has an investment and saving schedule SJPN = 12000 + 20000r IJPN = 17900 – 10000r The third economy, Hong Kong, has an investment and saving schedule . SHK = 500 + 5000r IHK = 600 – 5000r If each country were closed, then the interest rate that prevailed in that economy would set savings equal to investment in each economy. Solve for the closed economy interest rate in each economy. Now, assume that each economy is part of the world financial market. What is the world interest rate that sets the sum of world savings equal to world investment? Solve for the level of savings, investment and the current account for each economy at the world interest rate. Assume some event happened which shifted out the investment schedule of the EU. Show, graphically, how that would change the world interest rate and the current account in Hong Kong. Assume that the new EU investment schedule is IEU = 19000 – 20000r Solve for the new world interest rate and the new level of the current account in Hong Kong. The closed economy interest rate for each economy sets savings equal to investment: SEU = 14500 + 10000r = IEU = 15500 – 20000r rEU = 1/30 = .033 SJPN = 12000 + 20000r = IJPN = 17900 – 10000r rJPN = .197 SHK = 500 + 5000r = IHK = 600 – 5000r rHK = .01 The world interest rate sets world savings = world investment SEU + SJPN + SHK = IEU + IJPN + IHK = 27000 +35000r = 34000 – 35000r rW = .1 SEU = 15500; IEU = 13500 CAEU = SEU – IEU = 2000 SJPN = 14000; IJPN = 16900 CAJPN = -2900 SHK = 1000; IHK = 100 CAHK = 900 An increase in investment spending by the EU implies SEU + SJPN + SHK =IEU + IJPN + IHK = 30500 +35000r = 34000 – 35000r rW = .15 SHK = 1250; IHK = -150 CAHK = 1400 3. Assume that Malaysia has a net international investment position of B 0 = -50 billion ringgit worth of goods. Assume a constant real interest rate of 5% per year and a constant trade surplus in periods 1 through infinity NX1 = NX2 = NX3 = ……NX = NX. Solve for NX. NX 3 NX N NX 2 .... ...... 2 1 r (1 r ) (1 r ) N 1 NX NX NX 1.05 * 50 52.5 NX .... .... 2 1.05 (1.05) (1.05) N 1 1 1 NX 1.05 NX NX NX .05 * 50 2.5 1 .05 1 1.05 1.05 (1 r ) B0 NX 1