Forecasting Population Changes in Croatia until 2050 Ante Rozga, Ph.D. University of Split, Croatia E-mail: rozga@efst.hr Keywords: population, mortality, life expectancy, immigration. Abstract: Croatia has undergone dramatic demographic changes in recent years. Number of population felt from from 4,540,641 in 1991 to 4,422,248 in 2003. This is partially the consequence of the war, but there has been a downward trend for decades. Number of live births fell from 76,156 in 1960 to just under 40,000 in 2003, a drop of 47,5%, which is among the biggest in Europe. The number of deaths increased from 41,361 in 1960 to 50,569 in 2003. Using an optimistic scenario, we would expect 4,388,085 people living in Croatia in the year 2050. Infant mortality rate would fall from 11.46 in 1991 to 3.65 in 2050. Life expectancy would rise from from 69.51 to 78.47 years. Deaths per 1,000 population would remain steady, from 12.82 in 1991 to 13.01 in 2050. This is a projection if some measures are taken to stimulate population growth If these measures are taken but proven unsuccessful, the worst scenario would be 3,350,000 people living in Croatia in the year 2050. The number of people over 65 years of age would outnumber those under 15, posing a big problem for Croatian economy. In this scenario there would be lack of work force, and the emigration policy should be employed. Key words: population, mortality, life expectancy, immigration. 1. Introduction Population changes became very important issue for all countries in the world. Some of them worry about enormous (sometimes uncontrolable) population rise, the others about population decline. For both scenarios there are lot of concerning issues. For a big rise in population there could be problems regarding food shortages and nature devastation. Countries who experience ageing and declining of the population are mostly developed, but also there is a number of former socialist countries. The ageing of the population pose a big problem for the economy, because of shortage of workforce and making a burden for pension funds. The life expectancy in those countries has been substantially extended due to ever rising living standards and the achievements of medicine. Those counties are mostly European, the Croatia among them. Due to constant emigration process since the end of nineteen century and three wars in twentieth century, Croatia has lost lot of young population, thus decreasing the fertility base for further growth. This was fueled further by temporary emigration for economic reasons, but in many cases temporary emigration became permanent one, particularly for the second and third generation of emigrants. Being citizens of socialist country until 1990, Croats were allowed to travel abroad unlimited, contrary to other socialist countries. This was also reason for greater emigration of young people. Substantial number of emigrants were politically motivated, particularly after the second world war. 2. Population history of Croatia. Figure 1. Year Number population of Indices 1857=100 Average annual growth rate between censuses, % Population density per km2 1857. 1869. 1880. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1921. 1931. 1948. 1953. 1961. 1971. 1981. 1991. 2001.1) 2001.2) 2002.3) 2003.3) 2 181 499 2 398 292 2 506 228 2 854 558 3 161 456 3 460 584 3 443 375 3 785 455 3 779 858 3 936 022 4 159 696 4 426 221 4 601 469 4 784 265 4 512 652 4 437 460 4 443 000 4 442 000 100,0 109,9 114,9 130,9 144,9 158,7 157,8 173,5 173,2 180,4 190,7 203,0 210,9 219,3 206,9 203,4 0,87 0,37 1,31 1,03 0,91 -0,05 0,95 -0,01 0,81 0,69 0,62 0,39 0,39 -0,19 -0,17 38,6 42,4 44,3 50,5 55,9 61,2 60,9 67,0 66,9 69,6 73,6 78,3 81,4 84,6 79,8 78,4 1) Data were evaluated by applying the definition of the total population given in the Census 2001. In the 1991 Census, data on duration of temporary presence in the Republic of Croatia as well as data on traffic and economic connections of persons working or temporarily residing abroad with members of their households in the country were not collected. 2) The joint recommendations of the EU Economic Commission for Europe and the EU Statistical Office EUROSTAT were relevant for the Census 2001. 3) Estimate. Midyear population , by Age and Sex in 2000. Total, all ages 4,410,830 2,127,016 0- 4 250,361 128,653 5- 9 255,613 131,184 10- 14 267,849 136,907 15- 19 303,865 155,377 20- 24 310,253 157,541 25- 29 295,159 149,801 30- 34 292,421 147,162 35- 39 315,812 158,272 40- 44 346,512 174,251 45- 49 347,818 177,101 50- 54 289,349 147,131 55- 59 218,382 104,082 60- 64 249,233 112,466 65- 69 241,594 102,896 70- 74 192,062 74,130 75- 79 133,617 41,649 80+ 100,930 28,413 2,283,814 121,708 124,429 130,942 148,488 152,712 145,358 145,259 157,540 172,261 170,717 142,218 114,300 136,767 138,698 117,932 91,968 72,517 100.0 5.7 5.8 6.1 6.9 7.0 6.7 6.6 7.2 7.9 7.9 6.6 5.0 5.7 5.5 4.4 3.0 2.3 100.0 6.0 6.2 6.4 7.3 7.4 7.0 6.9 7.4 8.2 8.3 6.9 4.9 5.3 4.8 3.5 2.0 1.3 100.0 5.3 5.4 5.7 6.5 6.7 6.4 6.4 6.9 7.5 7.5 6.2 5.0 6.0 6.1 5.2 4.0 3.2 Median age in 2000 was 38.6 for both sexes, 36.8 for males and 40.4 for females. Sex ratio was 93.1. 3. Forecasting Total, all ages 0- 4 5- 9 10- 14 15- 19 20- 24 25- 29 30- 34 35- 39 40- 44 45- 49 50- 54 55- 59 60- 64 65- 69 70- 74 75- 79 80+ population in 2050 3,864,201 169,960 173,030 174,653 178,700 188,119 199,999 209,062 215,656 218,653 215,309 256,710 260,242 261,883 275,679 253,966 208,014 404,566 1,855,313 87,231 88,796 89,619 91,647 96,314 102,147 106,522 109,584 110,752 108,520 128,476 128,662 126,829 130,250 115,175 90,117 144,672 2,008,888 82,729 84,234 85,034 87,053 91,805 97,852 102,540 106,072 107,901 106,789 128,234 131,580 135,054 145,429 138,791 117,897 259,894 100.0 100.0 100.0 4.4 4.7 4.1 4.5 4.8 4.2 4.5 4.8 4.2 4.6 4.9 4.3 4.9 5.2 4.6 5.2 5.5 4.9 5.4 5.7 5.1 5.6 5.9 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.4 5.6 5.8 5.3 6.6 6.9 6.4 6.7 6.9 6.5 6.8 6.8 6.7 7.1 7.0 7.2 6.6 6.2 6.9 5.4 4.9 5.9 10.5 7.8 12.9 Median age in 2050 would be 49.7 years for both sexes, 47.1 for males and 52.0 for females. This is substantial increase from 38.6 median age in 2000. Sex ratio would be 92.4, compared with 93.1 in the year 2000. The number of people in the group (0 - 4) year would fall dramatically, by 32.11%. The number of people ageing 65 or more would increase by 70.9 % and would account for almost one third of population. 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 4496683, 4410830, 4495904, 4486881, 4464844, 4427282, 4374007, 4300965, 4209297, 4103751, 3988061, 3864201, 53870, 43755, 43026, 43209, 42193, 40864, 38710, 36515, 35232, 34882, 34497, 33734, 55489, 50239, 51163, 53080, 54382, 55120, 55725, 56687, 57752, 58807, 59382, 59122, -52251, 13674, 7104, 7134, 6206, 5357, 4461, 3570, 2652, 1765, 877, 0, -1619, -6484, -8137, -9871, -12189, -14256, -17015, -20172, -22520, -23925, -24885, -25388, -53870 7190 -1033 -2737 -5983 -8899 -12554 -16602 -19868 -22160 -24008 -25388 REFERENCES 2003 Statistical Yearbook, Central Bureau of Statistics, Zagreb. Croatia. Hinde, A. (1998): Demographic Methods, Edward Arnolds. London. Keyfitz, N. (1985): Applied Mathematical Demography, Springer Verlag, Heidelberg. Newell, C. (1990): Methods and Models in Demography. Guilford Press. New York. Preston, S.H., Heuveline P., Guillot M. and Guillon M. (2000): Demography: Measuring and Modelling Population Processes. Blackwell Publishers. Oxford. U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base. Washington D.C. U.S.A.