Forecasting Population Changes in Croatia until 2050
Ante Rozga, Ph.D.
University of Split, Croatia
E-mail: rozga@efst.hr
Keywords: population, mortality, life expectancy, immigration.
Abstract:
Croatia has undergone dramatic demographic changes in recent years. Number of population felt
from from 4,540,641 in 1991 to 4,422,248 in 2003. This is partially the consequence of the war, but there
has been a downward trend for decades. Number of live births fell from 76,156 in 1960 to just under
40,000 in 2003, a drop of 47,5%, which is among the biggest in Europe. The number of deaths increased
from 41,361 in 1960 to 50,569 in 2003. Using an optimistic scenario, we would expect 4,388,085 people
living in Croatia in the year 2050. Infant mortality rate would fall from 11.46 in 1991 to 3.65 in 2050. Life
expectancy would rise from from 69.51 to 78.47 years. Deaths per 1,000 population would remain steady,
from 12.82 in 1991 to 13.01 in 2050. This is a projection if some measures are taken to stimulate
population growth If these measures are taken but proven unsuccessful, the worst scenario would be
3,350,000 people living in Croatia in the year 2050. The number of people over 65 years of age would
outnumber those under 15, posing a big problem for Croatian economy. In this scenario there would be lack
of work force, and the emigration policy should be employed.
Key words: population, mortality, life expectancy, immigration.
1. Introduction
Population changes became very important issue for all countries in the world. Some of them
worry about enormous (sometimes uncontrolable) population rise, the others about population decline. For
both scenarios there are lot of concerning issues. For a big rise in population there could be problems
regarding food shortages and nature devastation. Countries who experience ageing and declining of the
population are mostly developed, but also there is a number of former socialist countries.
The ageing of the population pose a big problem for the economy, because of shortage of
workforce and making a burden for pension funds. The life expectancy in those countries has been
substantially extended due to ever rising living standards and the achievements of medicine. Those counties
are mostly European, the Croatia among them. Due to constant emigration process since the end of
nineteen century and three wars in twentieth century, Croatia has lost lot of young population, thus
decreasing the fertility base for further growth. This was fueled further by temporary emigration for
economic reasons, but in many cases temporary emigration became permanent one, particularly for the
second and third generation of emigrants.
Being citizens of socialist country until 1990, Croats were allowed to travel abroad unlimited,
contrary to other socialist countries. This was also reason for greater emigration of young people.
Substantial number of emigrants were politically motivated, particularly after the second world war.
2.
Population history of Croatia.
Figure 1.
Year
Number
population
of
Indices
1857=100
Average
annual
growth
rate
between censuses,
%
Population density
per km2
1857.
1869.
1880.
1890.
1900.
1910.
1921.
1931.
1948.
1953.
1961.
1971.
1981.
1991.
2001.1)
2001.2)
2002.3)
2003.3)
2 181 499
2 398 292
2 506 228
2 854 558
3 161 456
3 460 584
3 443 375
3 785 455
3 779 858
3 936 022
4 159 696
4 426 221
4 601 469
4 784 265
4 512 652
4 437 460
4 443 000
4 442 000
100,0
109,9
114,9
130,9
144,9
158,7
157,8
173,5
173,2
180,4
190,7
203,0
210,9
219,3
206,9
203,4
0,87
0,37
1,31
1,03
0,91
-0,05
0,95
-0,01
0,81
0,69
0,62
0,39
0,39
-0,19
-0,17
38,6
42,4
44,3
50,5
55,9
61,2
60,9
67,0
66,9
69,6
73,6
78,3
81,4
84,6
79,8
78,4
1) Data were evaluated by applying the definition of the total population given in the Census
2001. In the 1991 Census, data on duration of temporary presence in the Republic of
Croatia as well as data on traffic and economic connections of persons working or
temporarily residing abroad with members of their households in the country were not
collected.
2) The joint recommendations of the EU Economic Commission for Europe and the EU
Statistical Office EUROSTAT were relevant for the Census 2001.
3) Estimate.
Midyear population , by Age and Sex in 2000.
Total, all ages 4,410,830 2,127,016
0- 4
250,361
128,653
5- 9
255,613
131,184
10- 14
267,849
136,907
15- 19
303,865
155,377
20- 24
310,253
157,541
25- 29
295,159
149,801
30- 34
292,421
147,162
35- 39
315,812
158,272
40- 44
346,512
174,251
45- 49
347,818
177,101
50- 54
289,349
147,131
55- 59
218,382
104,082
60- 64
249,233
112,466
65- 69
241,594
102,896
70- 74
192,062
74,130
75- 79
133,617
41,649
80+
100,930
28,413
2,283,814
121,708
124,429
130,942
148,488
152,712
145,358
145,259
157,540
172,261
170,717
142,218
114,300
136,767
138,698
117,932
91,968
72,517
100.0
5.7
5.8
6.1
6.9
7.0
6.7
6.6
7.2
7.9
7.9
6.6
5.0
5.7
5.5
4.4
3.0
2.3
100.0
6.0
6.2
6.4
7.3
7.4
7.0
6.9
7.4
8.2
8.3
6.9
4.9
5.3
4.8
3.5
2.0
1.3
100.0
5.3
5.4
5.7
6.5
6.7
6.4
6.4
6.9
7.5
7.5
6.2
5.0
6.0
6.1
5.2
4.0
3.2
Median age in 2000 was 38.6 for both sexes, 36.8 for males and 40.4 for females. Sex
ratio was 93.1.
3. Forecasting
Total, all ages
0- 4
5- 9
10- 14
15- 19
20- 24
25- 29
30- 34
35- 39
40- 44
45- 49
50- 54
55- 59
60- 64
65- 69
70- 74
75- 79
80+
population in 2050
3,864,201
169,960
173,030
174,653
178,700
188,119
199,999
209,062
215,656
218,653
215,309
256,710
260,242
261,883
275,679
253,966
208,014
404,566
1,855,313
87,231
88,796
89,619
91,647
96,314
102,147
106,522
109,584
110,752
108,520
128,476
128,662
126,829
130,250
115,175
90,117
144,672
2,008,888
82,729
84,234
85,034
87,053
91,805
97,852
102,540
106,072
107,901
106,789
128,234
131,580
135,054
145,429
138,791
117,897
259,894
100.0 100.0 100.0
4.4
4.7
4.1
4.5
4.8
4.2
4.5
4.8
4.2
4.6
4.9
4.3
4.9
5.2
4.6
5.2
5.5
4.9
5.4
5.7
5.1
5.6
5.9
5.3
5.7
6.0
5.4
5.6
5.8
5.3
6.6
6.9
6.4
6.7
6.9
6.5
6.8
6.8
6.7
7.1
7.0
7.2
6.6
6.2
6.9
5.4
4.9
5.9
10.5 7.8 12.9
Median age in 2050 would be 49.7 years for both sexes, 47.1 for males and 52.0 for females. This
is substantial increase from 38.6 median age in 2000. Sex ratio would be 92.4, compared with 93.1 in the
year 2000. The number of people in the group (0 - 4) year would fall dramatically, by 32.11%. The number
of people ageing 65 or more would increase by 70.9 % and would account for almost one third of
population.
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
4496683,
4410830,
4495904,
4486881,
4464844,
4427282,
4374007,
4300965,
4209297,
4103751,
3988061,
3864201,
53870,
43755,
43026,
43209,
42193,
40864,
38710,
36515,
35232,
34882,
34497,
33734,
55489,
50239,
51163,
53080,
54382,
55120,
55725,
56687,
57752,
58807,
59382,
59122,
-52251,
13674,
7104,
7134,
6206,
5357,
4461,
3570,
2652,
1765,
877,
0,
-1619,
-6484,
-8137,
-9871,
-12189,
-14256,
-17015,
-20172,
-22520,
-23925,
-24885,
-25388,
-53870
7190
-1033
-2737
-5983
-8899
-12554
-16602
-19868
-22160
-24008
-25388
REFERENCES
2003 Statistical Yearbook, Central Bureau of Statistics, Zagreb. Croatia.
Hinde, A. (1998): Demographic Methods, Edward Arnolds. London.
Keyfitz, N. (1985): Applied Mathematical Demography, Springer Verlag, Heidelberg.
Newell, C. (1990): Methods and Models in Demography. Guilford Press. New York.
Preston, S.H., Heuveline P., Guillot M. and Guillon M. (2000): Demography: Measuring and
Modelling Population Processes. Blackwell Publishers. Oxford.
U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base. Washington D.C. U.S.A.