ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF GRID CONNECTIVITY TO SOCIAL WELL-BEING www.institutenorth.org Institute of the North 1675 C Street, Suite 106 Anchorage, AK 99501 P: 907-786-4663 Executive Summary This white paper explores the current electrical capacity in five communities—Anadyr, Hammerfest, Iqaluit, Nome, and Reyðarfjörður—in the circumpolar north, as well as the subsequent effects on local economic and social well-being. Electrical grids differ throughout the circumpolar north; however, Arctic communities share similar social and economic challenges. The cost of energy in Arctic communities is almost uniformly higher than national averages and governments throughout the region have sought to offset the true cost of energy. For instance, in Hammerfest, residents are not required to pay consumption or value-added taxes related to energy usage. Power Cost Equalization (PCE) in Alaska has had the most significant impact and provided the greatest relief to high electric prices in Nome. The real cost of energy in Nunavut is kept artificially low by subsidies and revolving funds. The situation in Anadyr presents an interesting case study, because all fuel offsets stemmed from a single philanthropic individual as part of a larger 2.5 billion dollar economic stimulus. Despite such relief efforts, the cost of living in these regions remains stubbornly high. Given economic realities and budgetary contractions, most of these northern communities have unsustainable energy costs. If Arctic communities and residents are forced to devote more money towards energy costs, important sources of funding will be diverted from other priorities, which will inherently affect the local standard of living. Throughout the high north, tough decisions are already being made in regards to balancing social well-being with energy affordability. Educational attainment for all communities in this case study lags behind national averages. Even in relatively wealthy Northern communities, such as Hammerfest, dropout rates are high and local educational institutions are not producing needed skilled labor. In Iqaluit over twenty INSIDE THIS WHITE PAPER Executive Summary and Findings 1-4 Case Study: Anadyr 5 Case Study: Hammerfest 7 Case Study: Iqaluit 10 Case Study: Nome 12 Case Study: Reyðarfjörður 15 percent of the territorial budget is reserved for fuel costs, yet local schools are underfunded, resulting in high unemployment and low career mobility. Grid Connectivity Effect on Economic Stability All five northern locales share similar challenges regarding the economic and social well-being of their inhabitants, however, a comprehensive electrical grid perhaps showcases the starkest contrast between the communities. Two communities--Hammerfest and Reyðarfjörður--are connected to the national Norwegian and Icelandic grids respectively, while the electrical grids of Iqaluit, Nome, and Anadyr operate as stand-alone entities. Furthermore, in the Nordic communities, renewable sources provide a majority of electrical power, whereas in the North American Arctic and Russian Far East diesel generation powers the local grids. It is important to note that Hammerfest is not a net exporter of energy. In fact, over the past several years local generation sources— which include renewables— have failed to produce enough power to meet demand mostly stemming from insufficient rainfall. Despite this, Hammerfest was able to maintain a stable and affordable electrical supply, due to excess power production in neighboring Norwegian counties. Conversely in Reyðarfjörður, the Kárahnjúkar hydropower plant produces excess power in the community and aluminum smelter, which in turn can be exported domestically to more populated areas. Page 2 Grid Connectivity to Social Well-Being The stand-alone electrical grid in Nome provides an excellent contrast to the integrated grids in Hammerfest and Reyðarfjörður. In winter 2012, a storm prevented Nome's 3,500 residents from getting a fuel delivery by barge in November. Without the tanker delivery, supplies of diesel fuel, gasoline and home heating fuel were expected to run out well before a barge delivery again in late May or June. In order to pump 1.5 million gallons of fuel oil to Nome’s on-shore depots, rescue vessels had to traverse about 300 miles of thick sea ice under the most difficult of conditions. Iqaluit and Anadyr’s stand-alone diesel grids could potentially face similar situations in the future. Additionally, if local renewable sources of energy are developed, the absence of transmission lines makes it impossible to divert excess production to neighboring communities. Grid Connectivity as an Economic Driver Northern communities have less economic diversity than other regions. The public sector is a key economic driver and represents a significant portion of local employment. Public sector employment makes up the majority of jobs in Nome and Iqaluit, and private sector jobs exist primarily in the form of extractive natural resource industries. The high cost of energy is also a major contributor to the high cost of doing business in the Arctic and is a barrier to economic growth. Outside of the public sector, employment opportunities are few and far between, creating double digit unemployment in Nome and Iqaluit. In Hammerfest and Reyðarfjörður, grid connectivity has stabilized energy costs and encouraged private sector investment. In Hammerfest public sector investment remains high--over thirty percent--but natural resource jobs have grown considerably. In fact, recent developments have spurred an in-migration of skilled workers and pushed unemployment down. In East Iceland inexpensive and reliable power was a driving force behind decisions to develop an aluminum smelter linked to a single hydropower plant. Reyðarfjörður was able to completely reverse economic decline by utilizing the region’s extensive glacial rivers for hydro power. The community’s population stabilized and local incomes and tax collections increased, creating a new source of municipal funds. In The Melkøya plant (Hammerfest), visible from the city (Photo: Eilif Ursin Reed) Iqaluit, mining exploration could be a potential economic boon and help diversify the local economy; however mining interests have cited the high cost of electricity as a barrier to develop, which has in turn stalled project start dates. Planned hydro development in Iqaluit would give a boost to the development of mining nearby and make large scale projects more appealing, and could perhaps parallel the economic reversal experienced in East Iceland. Similarly, the potential development of geothermal sources near Nome could sustainably generate power to be delivered to both Nome and nearby mines. Furthermore, this development could benefit all the surrounding communities on the Seward Peninsula through the development of a regional integrated electrical grid. In many ways, the pursuit of natural resource development has a secondary effect of lessening regional energy costs. Many projects, such as mines, take place near other off grid locations, forcing industry to rely on expensive diesel generators. Energy is often one of the largest costs for mining and other industrial projects, and developing local renewable sources for energy can cut diesel consumption considerably and also be distributed to surrounding communities. In this regard, private industry can be viewed through the lens of both job producer and infrastructure partner. “Private industry can be viewed through the lens of both job producer and infrastructure partner.” Page 3 Grid Connectivity to Social Well-Being Social Structure Components Economic stability and economic opportunities have a profound effect on the social stability and characteristics of a community. In the far north, grid connectivity has an outsized and interconnected effect on these two issue areas. The communities that derive their power from stand-alone grids have similar economic outlooks. Anadyr, Iqaluit, and Nome simultaneously suffer from joblessness and decreasing amounts of public support. High energy costs discourage private investment, which in turn creates high unemployment and social dependence. This cycle is not conducive to a maintaining a healthy population for several reasons. All three regions experience either population stagnation or outmigration, mostly of young and skilled residents. Energy costs and grid connectivity can be thought of as the base of a pyramid--a strong infrastructure base that supports the higher levels of the pyramid which in this case are jobs, local government budgets, public health, education, and social mobility. The high costs of energy resulting from stand-alone grids also negatively affect the public health and social wellbeing of residents. High prices effectively encourage extended families to live together in housing in order to save on heating costs, which results in overcrowding. Iqaluit in particular suffers from extreme overcrowding because the government lacks the funding to expand heating infrastructure for additional residential units. The Alaskan Arctic also experiences higher overcrowding rates than state and national averages. Conversely, homelessness is also an issue of concern. These trends in housing instability in turn affect other aspects of daily life, such as school attendance and graduation rates. The social structure in Hammerfest and Reyðarfjörður was similar to that of the other communities not long ago. Both experienced outmigration and lower educational attainment rates respective to national averages. The allure of cheap energy promoted several major economic endeavors in both communities. Over time both communities were able to stem population losses and later grow. The economic growth in Reyðarfjörður was particularly dramatic and personal income and reported personal satisfaction for community residents increased as a result. Hammerfest actually became a magnet for other Norwegians as the need for skilled labor increased. The trend was particularly pronounced among young people and residents with families, who no longer needed to look towards other domestic locales for job opportunity. Iqaluit’s main diesel power plant. (Photo: Nunatsiaq Online) The growth in Hammerfest and Reyðarfjörður, however, did not come completely risk free. Both communities are relatively small and experienced rapid economic growth. Initially, local governments were unable to keep up with the pace of growth, resulting in housing shortages and insufficient public services. Economic growth and immigration meant more children in local classrooms and an expanded need for health care. The initial infrastructure was not necessarily in pace, which caused social stress due to housing storages. Eventually, local governments were able to meet the demand and the issues lessened. Additionally, as industry was expanding, local schools were not properly preparing students for these new jobs, resulting in a skills mismatch. Coordination between industry and educational institutions needed to occur in order to properly prepare students for work experience placements. This experience could provide a valuable case study for the three other communities as they seek to spur economic development by developing integrated grids and more inexpensive energy sources. Looking Forward In the face of fluctuating fuel prices and the emerging threat of negative climate impacts, the focus of the global community has increasingly shifted to renewable sources of energy as the primary target of sustainable energy development. Many governments are turning to the use of renewables in Arctic communities as a source of significant savings on energy costs, and as a means of preventing supply shortages with negative implications for fuel prices as well as human well-being. Due to the small size of many Arctic communities and the absence of major industry, large scale energy production is not economically feasible. In many ways small regional grids with stand-alone power plants, often based on an alternative energy source, represent the best path Page 4 Grid Connectivity to Social Well-Being towards energy security for rural communities. There are potential geothermal and hydroelectric projects currently being explored in Nome and Iqaluit, respectively; these projects, if fully developed and externally financed, could be linked to the surrounding areas through transmission lines to share cheap power among communities regionally. The Anadyrskaya wind power plant in Chukotka has proven successful in reducing community dependence on diesel-fueled generators, and has improved security of supply by establishing a local alternative to transporting electricity and fuel from the Bilibino nuclear power facility. In Nome, wind farms have likewise allowed significant reductions in local diesel use, and further reductions may be expected as more turbines are constructed. However, wind generation suffers from problems of intermittency which prevents wind from representing a viable stand-alone energy source. In addition, extremely high overhead construction and operating costs are prohibitive for municipalities with low income, and more often than not, such projects are simply not economically feasible for Arctic communities without the benefit of large investments from public sector or private sources. The community of Iqaluit, another autonomous grid that would stand to benefit enormously from improved energy security, is currently working towards hydroelectric development, although preliminary feasibility reports indicate exceedingly high start-up “However, continuing concern over the rapid pace of social change, the permanence of social benefits, and the sustainability of operations offered by the plants prevents the community from being considered a unilateral success story.” costs. Large-scale projects, such as the plant in Chukotka, represent the best opportunity for increased employment and population growth, yet these projects are nearly impossible for communities to sponsor without substantial financial support. Because the community of Hammerfest is connected to the national electric grid owned and operated by state-run companies, energy prices are not as high and lack of supply does not represent as serious a threat to well-being. Hammerfest does contain a small hydroelectric plant which satisfies roughly 10% of the community’s needs, and has made recent advancements in tidal and wind power; however, due to seasonal fluctuations in water supply and strength of wind currents, these sources do little to address the situation of energy deficit during the winter. Accordingly, Hammerfest does not rely on renewables to meet critical energy needs but rather approaches these sources as a way to support the energy needs of growing petroleum and mining sectors. Reyðarfjörður as well benefits from strong grid connectivity, although unlike Hammerfest, the primary sources of both power supply and community and economic stability are renewables-based: the hydro-powered electricity and aluminum plants that were constructed locally by a nationalized company. This community represents a prime example of the potential social gains in employment opportunity, community wealth, and population growth. However, continuing concern over the rapid pace of social change, the permanence of social benefits, and the sustainability of operations offered by the plants prevents the community from being considered a unilateral success story. Significant damage also occurred to coastal and marine habitat near the sites, and local water sources were affected by contamination of toxic materials and depletion of groundwater reserves. Consequently, East Iceland is investing heavily in future projects to deploy geothermal resources as a less environmentally harmful option. Despite this, issues of land conversion, water quality, and noise and air pollution remain challenges in future renewable energy planning.